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Post-Bye Paradise! Time To Get Creative | Round 15 #PODPOD
90 Plays3 years ago
Join Dos & Lewy as they enjoy the post-bye AFL Fantasy paradise full of trade opportunities! It's time to get creative to get those rookies (and Tom Phillips) off-field in our final push home! Lewy runs through a stack of players you could be looking at trading in from every price point, and Dos reveals a player that may have got dropped for his unparalleled "Observable Thirst"...
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Transcript
Introduction & Podcast Overview
00:00:01
Speaker
Welcome to the Point of Difference AFL Fantasy Podcast, a fresh perspective on AFL Fantasy Classic, brought to you by the Keeper League
Post-Buy Strategy & Player Selection
00:00:08
Speaker
Pod. On this episode, the buys are over, but our strategy from this point feels more crucial than ever, with plenty of potential players to look at for the run home. We look at a stack of these options, plus some rookie players to look at and answer your burning questions.
Hosts' Weekend Experiences & Scores
00:00:43
Speaker
Welcome to the pod pod. I'm Dos here with Louie. Mate, good weekend or what? Yeah, fresh off the rest, mate. So I can't wait to get stuck into a little bit of fantasy chat. How have you been, mate? Yeah, pretty good. Pretty busy weekend. Bit tired, but overall pretty good and some nice fantasy scoring from my end as well. I think you had a pretty good weekend on the track as well.
00:01:02
Speaker
Yeah, pretty good week as well. And how good does it feel for the buy-ins to be over? Oh my God, it was keeping me up at night, Dossie. It's a relief. It is a relief.
Coaching Strategies Post-Buy
00:01:11
Speaker
And I feel like we mentioned at the top of the show, I feel like the strategy is sort of just beginning almost like usually feels like the strategy is pre-buy and during the buy, which it has certainly been heavy on that. But I reckon we are both on the same page here and that there's probably a lot of options and directions we can go, which is pretty exciting post-buy this time.
00:01:29
Speaker
That's it. Coaches are switched on DOS, so you can't get as big of a jump in the rankings as what you could have a couple of years ago. But in saying that, a lot of coaches get tripped up by selecting a couple of players that maybe aren't the
Listener Questions & Game Strategies
00:01:42
Speaker
best decision. We're going to talk about some of those today, and that's where you can really get your point of difference and climb the ranks. So I think
00:01:48
Speaker
In modern-day fantasy, around 15 to 23 might actually be the big moving weeks, especially if you've got a completed side already. And I'm looking forward to hearing a bunch of those players from your end. You've done a stack of research, so heaps to get through on this show. But first, how'd you go in round 14? What was your score? And we'll touch on after this, I think, as well, where we've gone in the buys, just in the sense of have we risen and how we went throughout the whole series. But just for this week, how'd you go around 14?
Performance Analysis: Buy Rounds & Round 14
00:02:16
Speaker
Yeah, not too bad, Dossie. I'm not sure what par was this week, but given that a lot of players did have the buy at eight teams, I got the 17.92, so I think that was pretty decent. What about yourself? I think it was pretty good, considering, I mean, I am further down in the rankings than your great self, Lou Dog, but I got 17.64 and I rose a decent amount, went up a few thousand, so I was pretty happy
Current Rankings & Future Planning
00:02:40
Speaker
with that.
00:02:40
Speaker
So yes, 1792 and 1764. I think we both had pretty reasonable weeks on the track. I certainly sacrificed last week. I don't think you sacrificed last week. You've had a significant buy series, haven't you?
00:02:51
Speaker
Yeah I've been pretty consistent throughout the buys which is what I try to do so in the first buy round I got the 1728, in the second buy round I got 1842 so that was my strong round mostly based off the fact that Richmond and West Coast players actually played that round so that's where a few of my scores actually dropped off and then round 14 I had the 1792 so I've been pretty consistent.
00:03:15
Speaker
Yeah, that's exactly what you want, especially up the pointy end. And where are you ranked after this week?
Team Improvements Post-Buy
00:03:20
Speaker
So, after this week, I've come into rank 369. Very nice. Yeah. So, I went into the buy rounds at 458. So, I've risen about 100 ranks. Is that, what was, is that sort of what you were hoping for? Maybe a little bit more, but you positioned yourself really nicely heading out of the buys and has the buyer planning paid off for you?
00:03:42
Speaker
Yeah, I'm pretty happy with how I went. Obviously, it's hard to jump ranks when you're in the top 1,000. You have to have a pretty good side. So to go up 100 ranks, I'm pretty thankful for it. It could easily go back the other way. So I think I'm in a really good position to attack the next eight rounds. So hopefully that happens. What about you, Dossie?
00:04:03
Speaker
I'd say I had a very successful buy-around period. I've moved up this week like I said just I've moved up pretty much almost all the rankings was the move this week obviously just staying in the game the last couple so I had a really good week in the first buy week around 12, 13 I tailed off massively and 14 I bounced back so mine wasn't as consistent as yours but certainly I sort of had two highs and one low which I think
00:04:28
Speaker
is pretty okay and my low wasn't too low so I moved across the buyers I moved from rank 14,540 up to 11,295 so not inside the top 10 which I'm hoping to obviously do certainly from this point on but definitely my team has improved immensely and also
00:04:47
Speaker
So just looking at my team value, which I am still part of the crop crew. So not willing to reveal what that value is yet, but I have gone up 1.05 million across the buyers. So doing exactly what I want to, just building that team structure and really in a much stronger position than I was pre-buy. So pretty happy with that.
Hot Topics: Player Performances & Strategy
00:05:05
Speaker
But let's move on to nailed it, failed it just for this round, which is round 14, of course, we just finished it. Who was you nailed it?
00:05:12
Speaker
I've got to give it to Tim Taranto, 145, but I also stuck the C on him too, so getting a 290 this week was really big in terms of how I did this week. Was that the VC or the C? Sorry, the VC and the Luke, and then I took it. I would have gone probably Tom Mitchell if I did the C, and he went all right too, but I went the Titch. What about yourself, Dos? You went Titch? I went Titch. I'm not going to give it to him though, because
00:05:37
Speaker
Well, I could easily give it to him, but I just want to give it to someone different who's been in my side all year. And I actually gave him the reverse curse. I'm not sure if it, if I reckon it was on the main podcast last week, I said, Tom Stewart, I really like him and I put him as my last sort of target, if you will, coming off either of the buyer, you know, around 12 or 13. I said, Oh, Tom Stewart, you know, he's a nice little option, but he doesn't have that bigger ceiling.
00:06:02
Speaker
Course he goes this week, comes out with a big 120, most intercept, equal most intercept marks in a game and yeah, he was awesome. Also just a shout out for Nailed It, Caleb, the inside mid Daniel. He's ridiculous, isn't he? He looks alright in there too.
00:06:20
Speaker
He looks absolutely good in there. Alright, failed it. Louis, who was it this week? Oh, Tom Phillips. I'm not sure I've ever given him a failed it yet this season, but gee, it's well overdue. So he dished up the 59, actually docked off a few points after lockout too, which made me fall to state-o by one point, which was pretty heartbreaking. So yeah, Tom Phillips, long time coming. He's my failed it.
00:06:46
Speaker
Yeah, so his average is in his last five is sixty nine point six. That's like, you know, I don't ever. The thing is, a lot of it hasn't moved in price. Twenty three percent owned still. Even now, I'm sure a lot of people might want to jump off this week. Maybe that's something we're going to be talking about later. But for a guy that was.
00:07:04
Speaker
seemingly bargain priced and a very obvious forward pick that we considered, you know, maybe not thinking he was going to be a top six, although his Amy series might have suggest he was going to be up there. Yeah. Just moved out of that center bounce rotation. A lot of the time that he spent, I would say he spends a fair bit of time now on the bench that he used to not. We were expecting him elite runner to maybe be the 90 percent time on ground guy. You know, he sort of spends low 80 percent, sometimes starts off the bench. Yeah. Just really disappointing.
00:07:33
Speaker
Yeah it's not Tom Phillips at Collingwood and in hindsight we probably should have known that but yeah he's someone that a lot of coaches if they jump off he's still quite highly owned so you actually get a point of difference in jumping off now. Yeah jumping off is the point of difference in this case
Team Completion Strategies Post-Buy
00:07:49
Speaker
yeah.
00:07:49
Speaker
My fault and it's a harsh one because he's been a really good and consistent performer across the season, but let's just go with Sammy Walsh. And there's a reason to it, though. Just the glove by Matador all day long. We saw him move out of position to that. You were saying you were watching closely as well. I was watching the game as well. But he moved to sort of a half forward at times just to try and break that tag put out of the midfield, to be honest. So I'll say any as well. Pre show.
00:08:16
Speaker
He was getting ignored for plus sixes. He was really working hard to break that tag, and he actually worked all day long trying to get plus sixes, and the Blues just wouldn't use him. Just get him involved and get him the pill to show him that his hard work was paying off. Have no doubt he'll bounce back, but just for a one week, unfortunately, let's just hope he doesn't cop more tags going forward, considering that you could say was a success. That's the worry, yeah. Yeah, so 55 for him.
Rookie Players & Team Performance
00:08:42
Speaker
Um, alright Luke, let's go to some hot topics and the bars are over, so now what?
00:08:48
Speaker
It's time to complete your team. It's just, it just keeps on rolling this season. So, buy rounds are over. Hopefully you've only got a couple of rookies on the field or you've got a completed side. So, you really want to start looking at bringing in players that you can see or you want in your team at the end of the year. There's no point pussyfooting around with, you know, a Zach Bailey that I picked up a couple of weeks ago, granted he's had some poo.
00:09:14
Speaker
But there's no point doing these stepping stones now unless they have a really sort of juicy break even. Maybe Nick Haynes is a good example of that. But yeah, it's time to basically start chipping away at your side to have the best possible side by around 23.
00:09:29
Speaker
Yeah, it's funny. Seems obvious, but I think some of us maybe were hoping we'd have a security blanket of a guy like John, you can maybe sit and just at MA, getting us through. And we just got a harsh reminder on the weekend, what a rookie on the field means. So, you know, if that's going to happen in a non-buy week, you're going to copper 27 on your field. So we've just got to get them off the field as quick as possible. And even a guy that
00:09:55
Speaker
Look, I'm thinking about rolling at R2 this week in a nice Sydney rookie in Joel Amarti or Amity.
00:10:03
Speaker
We can't trust that these guys are going to get us nice scores, can we? No, you can't. But you wouldn't be alone. I think a lot of coaches are going to do that, especially with his rock forward status.
Midfield & Ruckmen Strategies
00:10:12
Speaker
And why wouldn't you on form? I think he's averaging 83 or something to play two games, albeit. But yeah, if he's one of your last rookies on field right now, then I think you're in a pretty good spot, really. He should dish up a 60. He looks pretty good.
00:10:26
Speaker
So in general, Lou, is our strategy changing from the top coaches to the bottom coaches? And I guess everyone's just in a different position post buyers, but everyone's goal should be the same. Get these rookies off the field. And then once they're off the field, it's time to get rid of these guys like your Tom Phillips that are just annoying you with their low scores and knowing which one of these guys isn't going to bite you. Like some people would have jumped off Isaac coming in recent weeks. He's come out with a bang this week. And
00:10:56
Speaker
It's knowing which ones to hold, like do you hold a Markov versus Tom Phillips, or knowing which one of these sort of mid-price guys, once you do have that completed team, is right to jump off. For those who don't have a completed team, it's pretty simple, isn't it? Just get those rooks off. Absolutely, yep. Alright, Luke, the other thing we're going to talk about, the hot topic here, Brody Grundy, now, when, or never.
00:11:21
Speaker
He's back, Brody Grundy, a few coaches held so they won't have to worry about it and I'm really interested actually to hear how those coaches went. So tweet at the Pod Pod because you might be in a really good position here because he's going to be a tricky one to bring in over the next couple of weeks for a lot of coaches.
00:11:38
Speaker
Would I go now? No, I actually wouldn't. He's got the 150 breakeven and I think most coaches have Sean Darcy or Riley O'Brien sitting there. You can go with them for another week or two and watch Grundy and pick him up at a cheaper price later. Those with a rookie R2
00:11:56
Speaker
I think in my opinion you've gone down that stream now so if you can get up elsewhere then maybe you can hold off on Grundy as well and ride that wave a little bit longer because you are generating cash with say a Joel Amity but it's certainly not never Brodie Grundy he's going to be pretty much the top one or top two Ruckman this year I think so I would be making strong plans to bring him in
00:12:23
Speaker
but I wouldn't necessarily be prioritizing him over, you know, like you said, a Tom Phillips or
Team Strategy Changes & Injuries
00:12:30
Speaker
a Markov. If you've got Rob there, we've seen that Rob can go 90 plus. So I'm just using that as an example, but now Brody Grundy certainly over the next couple of weeks.
00:12:40
Speaker
Yeah I'm in 3-0 this week, Shawny Dass might give him a run for his money. It's going to be a bit underdone Grundy so yeah we'll see how we go. Be interesting to see and you've got to see selection too. If you see that they've selected say Robert Harvey's role and if he's got a max lynch.
00:12:56
Speaker
and Darcy Cameron in the side, then you got to steer clear. I'm not saying Grundy couldn't still pop a ton with those guys in the side, but given his break even still so massive, you can just wait a week and say, yeah, I'm on the same page as you. I'm not rushing out to pay a stack of money, even though it is Grundy and we know what he can do until he's proven that he's right to go again. And we can be comfortable in this new setup that we're probably going to see from Robert Harvey this week. It's going to be very interesting. That's probably another hot topic as to,
00:13:25
Speaker
So many questions coming through with Collingwood, what to expect, and I'm just looking forward to seeing what he's got to offer, you know, what the coaching and what the selection committee and stuff has to offer for Collingwood. It's going to be seriously an interesting week for the Piers. Moving on, another unfortunate hot topic this week for Piers that jumped on.
00:13:44
Speaker
Mitch Duncan. I'm really, heart's out to you if you picked him up. I know one of our listeners, friends of the show, Open Mullet, Nathan from the Fantasy Factory, he jumped on. I know a few other coaches did, thinking just to grab that high ceiling and grab that point of difference, even though the high price, even mid-buys, just so, you know, my heart goes out to you. It's just unfortunate.
00:14:09
Speaker
And now there's a whole new generation of never again lists for Mitch Duncan and there's a lot of coaches that have him on there because of this pretty much. Obviously couldn't control the PCL, I think it was, Doss, but always prone to missing a couple of weeks at a crucial time is Duncan.
00:14:26
Speaker
Yeah, and it's, it's always something, it's just something different every time. Seems like, you know, whether it's a KO, a hamstring, often a hamstring, but yeah, something every time. Poor Mitchie dunks. But hey, that's, that's the hot topics for this week. We got a stack of players to get through that Louis is going to take us through just after this. We've also got rookies to target as well. And there's actually some nice options this week. We had a dearth of them last week, but we've got stacks to get through this week. Hopefully a few,
00:14:53
Speaker
debutantes as well. And then we've got your listener questions later on.
Premium Players & Investment Strategies
00:14:57
Speaker
But if you do enjoy our weekly podcast, then join up to be a member of Pod Pod Plus for an extra weekly podcast recorded on a Wednesday night with five time top 100 finisher, The Statesman, who was on the show on the main show last week as well. And that's a heavy focus on answering your questions. We delve deeper into those and answer your trade dilemmas and really look at your teams with a serious eye for how to improve them.
00:15:21
Speaker
You get to also brainstorm with Pod Pod Plus members on our exclusive Facebook group, and you also get a shout out on this podcast. So welcome to the podcast. Welcome to the Pod Squad, I should say. Kyle Brett, Xavier Kramer, and Jack W. A huge thanks to all our new members. You can sign up at keepaligpod.com.au when you go to the Premium Resources tab and hit bonus episodes, or just click the link in the podcast description and sign up today. Lou Dog,
00:15:50
Speaker
I think you want to take us through some of these uber premiums that we can start targeting. Yeah, I do. And I just want to profess this by saying that if we're looking at uber premiums in more cases than not, it should be about shoring up your mid price because you've got to spend a lot of money to get up from a rookie. So if you're looking at uber premiums, I'm basically saying you've probably got
00:16:13
Speaker
a completed side and that's what I just wanted to say that before I go into these guys and with shoring up these mid prices this is where you can actually start getting your point of difference because if you can put 200k theme of the podcast so far on Tom Phillips or CJ or Markov what have you then you can get yourself a real genuine 120 averaging player
00:16:33
Speaker
up from a bloke who you're not sure whether they're going to score 70 each week. So you start to create a gap in points there. So... Could be going plus 40 a week, couldn't you? That's it. So we'll start with the top three most expensive dos and right now Took Miller is the most expensive player in the game and he's one of two players at this price tag. I'm actually okay with paying up for if you have the cash.
00:16:56
Speaker
Always prefer to find value, of course, that's always been made every week. But Took is a machine. He looks so good and works so hard and he gets like three or four smothers a game. If he got points for all the 1% as he did, he would be averaging 200 this year. So now I think he can easily average 120 from this point on.
00:17:16
Speaker
in which case he's actually worth paying up for then. And last three, 137.5. So with a ceiling like that, he's someone that I really like. Jack McRae is the other one. The only thing I'll add to this though is that if you're not already a McRae owner and you're still competing, you may once again be better off chasing value and using it as your point of difference because
00:17:39
Speaker
You've gotten this far, you're within an arm's reach. Yes, you could match them and that might be the right play. But at the same time, I'd, I'd probably look at going, uh, somewhere else and, and trying to get that. He nearly nearly had, uh, his first sort of undertone game to really close. He always does though.
00:17:55
Speaker
It's
00:18:15
Speaker
go against him or are you willing to just, you got to alleviate not having him at this time, at this point? Look, I look at that price tag and then I look at, let's use for example, Christian Patryka. So, Patryka is 739K, Jack McRae is 893K. Now, I don't think Patryka is going to average more than McRae.
00:18:35
Speaker
to finish the season here but I think there is less than a 20 to 25 point gap which is actually the price difference between them at the moment. You almost banked 200K, 150K so in that case I would probably go against it.
00:18:52
Speaker
Same time you are paying for Jack McRae, you know what you're going to get, mate? You're not going to bet against McRae with a guy with a 650K price tag. No, no. It's just not going to get it done. Or like taking a punt on a guy like, even like a Brandon Ellis. I don't think you'd do that. But with a guy like Petrarca, who has showed us a pretty solid ceiling and consistency, especially last season when he was magnificent.
00:19:15
Speaker
Let's use Whitfield, top six defender, and you still make 140k. Well, not going down, but trading him instead. So anyway, let's move on to the next one. Darcy Parrish, who, holy moly, he's at 886k, and it looks like he's topped out now, but I don't think anybody expected this. Yeah, had his first little marginal stinker on the weekend, kicked a goal right at the end to push up to his 84.
00:19:41
Speaker
Can't complain with that though if you've been on it if you did bring him in this week though in round 14 You'd probably be a little bit upset considering he had the Hawks on deck 84 he doubled that the week prior like for the week prior to the buyers. So You'd be slightly disappointed with that and right now with Melbourne and Geelong coming up. I'm not paying up for parish. I
00:20:01
Speaker
No, not at all. And he's probably a prime candidate with what we were just speaking about earlier, where if you hopped on Darcy Parrish when he was 580K, he's topped out at 880K. You've got a completed side. Go down. You're making cash. Get creative. Because like you said, he's got a tough matchup going forwards. And I just don't think that he can maintain an average of 880,000. I think that's a bit of a tall order for me.
00:20:28
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, absolutely. And I'm just trying to figure out a sort of play you could go. I mean, a lot of people already have a Whitfield. What about a Petrarcha? Like you're saying, what are you making from him? You'd still be making. I don't have the prices on here. Nearly 150K. 150K. What does that get you going? Tom Phillips, if you've still got him up, you've got about 674K in the bank to spend. There you go. Something like that be worthwhile doing or his parish just, you know, he's still got an 84K.
00:20:57
Speaker
Well, you could do it. I mean, off the top of my head, maybe you went Parrish down to Petrarca, like you said, and then you went Tom Phillips up to Jai Simkin. You want to take a punt on that? Why not? We'll see how we go. Jai Simkin, maybe not the man for me, but we'll talk about that later. Even like, I mean, talking, this is a defender, so you'd have to do some DPP shuffle, like a Jaden Short, Bashah Hooli on their run home. They've got a great run home.
00:21:25
Speaker
Daniel Rich, as you've seen, Brisbane's run home. He's gonna be cheap in a couple of weeks as well. So, here's another one for you. Toby Green's still $6.53K as well. So, anyway, that's just a few options. Like you said, get creative. It is an exciting time and I don't know if I'd be doing that if I was a parish owner just because the ceiling has been so massive.
00:21:43
Speaker
And we're talking about value, 800k players, that's a 115 average and obviously that climbs as you go up towards 897 or whatever it took Miller is. So when you're trading in these guys, and I'll list the candidates here, you need to be able to ask yourself, do I think make an average 115 from this point on in the season? Yep. So I'll give you this list here, Doss. Yep. Jack Steele.
00:22:08
Speaker
Are you asking me, do I think that? Do you think so? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I think so. And 827K is at the right price. Last, sorry, 130. So next up, Marcus Bond and Pelly. Actually, I'd say still slightly under potentially. Yeah,
Mid-Tier & Defensive Player Analysis
00:22:23
Speaker
yeah. Bond.
00:22:24
Speaker
It's on the nose there. That's there, that's a 115. Couple of tags and that goes down to 105 though. It comes home like a steam train every year though and you know seeing as a... 855k. I'm saying that as a proud owner. I know, I know, I know you like the bond, I do too. Cam Guthrie, 835k. You can't pay that with his injury question marks now.
00:22:45
Speaker
You just can't. His name alone just is so scary. I'd love to have him as a point of difference. You know, I would have loved to have had him as a point of difference, but just to bring him in at that price, you'd feel so disgusted doing it. You couldn't.
00:23:00
Speaker
Tim Taranto 861k he's crept up in price big time he's highly owned so you probably wouldn't chase him now but he's one that you would be confident on averaging 115 from here on I think. Cox is back soon do you just you know as a non-owner would you just avoid it? Yeah at this point if you don't own Taranto I mean he's on a run at the moment but
00:23:23
Speaker
I struggle to pay 861k. It's always going to be my view. Latticinja reports saying Cogs is a few more weeks away than hoped. He'll play forward I think Cogs. Yeah, plus three to four weeks. You've seen how Geelong has brought Dangerfield back slowly. G, knowing Leon, Cogs might have to make his way back through the VFX.
00:23:46
Speaker
Yeah, he's gonna be a tagging forward again. So watch out Jeremy here Tim sorry Clayton Oliver next up 800 K on the nose. His last three is ninety three point seven average So he's down on form and he's not really down on price either. So at 147 breakeven I think you can wait a couple of weeks and target him soon. You can wait is a guy that
00:24:09
Speaker
You could get rewarded though as well. He could go 1.7, yes. You could bring, I don't know what his ownership would be like. I'd imagine it's pretty, it's not unique per se. So, you know, you wouldn't be gaining a huge advantage by paying up I'd say in terms of uniqueness. That being said, I think he does average 1.15. I think he's in that club. Me too.
00:24:27
Speaker
Next up, we got Max Gaunt. He's a must have. Won't expand too much on him. Jared Lyons. I can see that, but Locky Neal is going to be a hundred K cheaper and he hasn't really played a lot of footy with Locky Neal recently. So I just want to watch how that goes. Neal looked very good, obviously. He did.
00:24:46
Speaker
He played with Lions last year as well, so we know what that looks like, but I just think there's a teammate there that's so much more value that you probably wouldn't look at Lions this week. I don't know if he's on your list, and I'll just have a quick look. I don't think he is.
00:25:02
Speaker
Same run and, you know, this would be the completely unique play. You'd probably go Neil, but McLuggage is the other guy with Brisbane's run. We saw what he did earlier in the season. He did a few of those big scores with Neil and Lions in the team with him. Would you like any of it? Would you like him as say a pod for McLuggage or you just the other two guys are that much better?
00:25:23
Speaker
Look, he is on the list, Doss. If you scroll down a little bit, it's under Uber premiums I wouldn't touch.
Player Roles & Strategic Value
00:25:30
Speaker
Hugh McLuggage, and it's got troops are back. I see him there now. I don't think you do that. I think Lyon's in nearly your two main men. And I've said before on this podcast, I don't really like trading in the fourth to fifth best midfielders. Understandable. Understandable.
00:25:47
Speaker
Next up, Ben Keyes, not gonna talk about him, but he's not gonna go. No one's trading in Ben Keyes. Oh no, it's just, he's a bit of a nuts fantasy player. A little bit like Ken Guthrie, probably. Josh Kelly, he can go 115, absolutely. So he's a target. Ollie Wines, absolutely. And isn't he in ripping form, Doss?
00:26:06
Speaker
Yeah, by the way, on Kelly, it's good to see his ankle injury isn't considered too serious. So, I think he's going to be, yeah, okay, going forward. It was lucky people that brought him in this week, or, you know, he would have been sweating people that put him C, if they went Macrae VC, and then Josh Kelly C, I saw a few people putting the C on him this week, you know, against Carlton, he's had a great history against them. Couldn't go, couldn't
00:26:33
Speaker
fault that decision. Just fought his way to a ton for you. He was limping all over the place. So anyway, just on Josh Kelly, Ollie Wines, fire out. He's good, isn't he? Brandlo form. Yeah. So big price tag to pay now, but probably based on what he's doing, he's going sort of 125 every week. So there's a little bit of options on this list weirdly.
00:26:55
Speaker
Yeah, he's an inside ball, so you do fear that he could have a sort of 28 possession game, and only get you your 85, just because there's so many handballs in it. People that jumped on in the last few weeks, like credit to you, because he was looking amazing. And yeah, just now that that price has creeped well above 800K, I just prefer going a guy, even to be honest, like a guy like, I mean, Jack Steele is pretty much a similar price, like just a guy that I think can go
00:27:24
Speaker
you know, he's not going to get targeted. He's a bad team. So he's going to go to one twenties and not get, not get attention. So. And finally we've got Aaron Hall. He's 804 K last three hundred and 18 average. It didn't seem too affected by the inclusions of Tarrant and McDonald on the weekends. So he's one where I think he's probably the boats been missed there. I'm not sure he's going to average even 105.
00:27:51
Speaker
Even worse, the McRae looked like he was going to have his lowest score in a long time. He was on, I think, 30 at halftime, I want to say. Aaron Hall, his last half scoring was, you know, he must have got his entire, I think he literally was on 30 at halftime, so.
00:28:07
Speaker
I thought I'd got away with not having Hall another week this weekend. This is what best scorers do, isn't it? Yeah, he's crazy. Who's he got this week? He's got a great matchup this week, doesn't he? It's not going to be pretty again, I reckon. I reckon he's got another absolute stonker matchup.
00:28:24
Speaker
Anyway, Lew, you got any other players for us to look at here in the Uber Premium Bracket? Yeah, in the Uber Premiums, I've sort of included sort of 700K, maybe a little bit more, so... Gold Coast for Aaron Hall. Revenge Tour. Gold Coast, yep, there you go. Grudge Match.
00:28:40
Speaker
Tom Mitchell, 796k. He's threatening to have a massive ceiling game. I think he was on like 93 at halftime. Yeah. And only got to sort of his 130 or whatever it was. It's another case of the reverse curse. I was saying.
00:28:56
Speaker
The DOS reverse curse. If I say someone's looking like they're down on form a bit, they certainly respond back. It's almost like the rocket, the Royce rocket. It's working pretty well me saying someone's not doing, doesn't have a great ceiling. So Tom Mincho, I was very concerned a few weeks ago.
00:29:12
Speaker
His lowest time on ground for the season, I marked it, I reckon it was two or three weeks ago, he was pre-buyer. That might've just been leading up to the buy, a bit sore, resting him before having a big storm home, basically. I think maybe that trade talk sort of put a rocket under him too. Yeah, so he had to show the haters. 76% time on ground against the Suns. I think I had him captain, so I was very upset with that. 76 points he scored that week after being traditionally scoring amazing against him.
00:29:38
Speaker
He's gone 125, 134 after the buys. He's got GWS this week. I don't see him. Oh, I mean, does he get to ball though? That's, that's a question for you. Good. Yeah. We'll talk about that later. Yeah. All right. One to watch. But yeah, Tom Mitchell got to love him. We know what he can do.
00:29:54
Speaker
That's up. We know what Locky Whitfield can do. He's a defender. He's going to be top two, I think. Isn't he? God, I love him. He's a good player. I need him. You need to get him in. He is as close as you can get to a must-have. Locky Neal have spoken a little bit about him. He's 728k, but I reckon he's going to cop the Marco Conner tag this week. The mock lock. The mock lock. That's it. So he'll be a top eight midfielder, I think, after this matchup here because
00:30:23
Speaker
Lions, they're charging towards finals and they need their best player, Locky Neal playing well. So he's going to be at every single center bounce like we saw last year, 95% time on ground. I reckon he's going to go nuts. So I'm really big on Locky Neal after this week.
00:30:38
Speaker
I test he was back he was thirsty he was showing that observe first actually so the week before little bit tentative first game back I still don't like how he handles tags though I gotta say it's something that as an owner you'd like to see someone not get bothered by it he still just gets so frustrated when people come and show him a bit of attention so
00:30:58
Speaker
That's just something, especially with Marco Connor this week. Still got the 1-15 break even. I think I wait this week. Go the week after you've got Crows, Saints, Richmond, Hawthorne, Gold Coast. And he's not going to get away in price either, unless he has an absolute mammoth, which we don't think he will. One more week, then I reckon, yeah, take him for that massive run home. They've got such a good run home after this Geelong game.
00:31:20
Speaker
Brad Crouch, 744k, he's under priced right now. He is in great form, averaging 123 off of his last three games and I think he's finally starting to find his feet in that Saints midfield. Absolutely. He's at the ceiling, the risk of the injuries. Why?
00:31:38
Speaker
Do you go in? I personally think now that he's up there when he was 600, it was like a no brainer and I almost feel so stupid. He only fell to about 670. Yeah. So he's only 80K more than that. So he's 10 points more. But you can't worry about injuries now, Dos.
00:31:55
Speaker
We're in the second half of the year. We've got to chase points and if they're going to get injured, they're going to get injured. But the longer you wait and the longer Brad Crouch averages 123, let's say he does that, then you're just hurting your own side and you sort of look back in hindsight and wish you did it. So. Harmy was all about it when he jumped on the show. He was, he brought in Brad Crouch that week, I think, which was, man, that was a while ago now. What we talking about around 12 or something? He's a good coach. Very good coach. Very good coach. Yeah, no, Brad Crouch is pretty good.
00:32:24
Speaker
Rory Ladd, if you don't already have him, then get him. He's clearly a top six defender. Callum Mills, once again, he's a good target off the buy. I think he's still actually relatively unique. So at 776k, you sort of paint up for him now, but he hasn't gotten away from you either. So perhaps you could take him on. Dane Zorko, 767k. You're going to want him in your forward line before the end of the year, I think. Doss, he's the sort of player that's going to average
00:32:52
Speaker
sort of 105 plus from here I think as the line sort of charged towards finals. Yeah so is he another one? Especially this week with Marco Conner perhaps tagging Lucky Neil but maybe hold off in case he does go to the Zork. Either or.
Player Potential & Tagging Impact
00:33:07
Speaker
I don't have a, I don't have an issue as well as this week, if you've got nothing better to do with the Locky Neil, you're going to have him, you know, how many, how many weeks are left? The rest of the weeks remaining, you're going to get great scores. So going this week, you might lose a little bit of coin, but at least you know that, you know, if something goes wrong next week, at least you've got him there. That's it. Same with Zorko for me. And like you said, he might not get attention. So he could, he sometimes, Zorko for me is a guy that
00:33:33
Speaker
I actually like him in the games where it's a big, a big matchup. You know, if he's coming up against one of the top teams, usually Zorko actually comes to play. So yeah, don't mind Zorko this week. Let's move on now, Dos, to some of the uber premiums I wouldn't touch. Okay. I've got a couple here. Sam Docherty. Okay. Sporadic role, Dos. He's up on the wing. He's received a bit of criticism on how he's playing on the wing.
00:33:58
Speaker
And with what's going on at Carlton, they're under review. I think there's going to be a few coaching changes. I'm not saying teags out, but I'm saying that there might be a different direction at the club and, and where they want to take it. So Sam Docherty, I'm hesitant to touch now and, and I don't think he's going to be a top six defender from now on.
00:34:16
Speaker
Yeah, as a non-owner, I just always flash back. And this is so harsh for a guy that I've absolutely loved as a fantasy player his whole career and missed him for those two years that we missed out on having him grace our fields in fantasy footy. But I just keep coming back to last season when we had to hold him for the whole second half of the season, having like a 57 average next to his name. So yeah, I tend to agree with you that I'd look to
00:34:44
Speaker
avoid bringing in a player that his ownership must have risen now because I know he was unique early days. I'll have a look at his ownership. I don't think it's massive. Doss. So, um, 14%. 14%. Yeah. Okay. So yeah, that's not massive. I wouldn't have thought. Yeah. No, I'm the same page though. I think, you know, he hasn't turned up in his last three. So I'd be looking elsewhere.
00:35:07
Speaker
Next up Andrew Gaff and the reason is it just hasn't clicked yet has it? It's been 14 rounds of football and he just doesn't look himself so even though he's at 708k and arguably when it does click he would be value. I don't think you touch it now. I think you just leave that be and maybe he's a little gift next year.
00:35:28
Speaker
Yes, it's he's one I'm looking at as a person in my position, which is, you know, well outside contention. As a guy, low ownership under 10%, he's down at 7%. If he shows me one good week, I might jump on just because if he has the inside mid's back. If he has the inside mid's back,
00:35:47
Speaker
feeding him the ball. Is he not a guy that would do better with better players around him? Like he's had to be the big focus basically of the West Coast. I want a big score or two very good ones. I think DOS, but it's not the easiest run at this point. There's a lot of good midfielders out there and I think you can do better than Andrew gaff. So boy gaff humor clogage already mentioned him before. But next up, we've got, I'm a fan of McLeod, Sammy Walsh.
00:36:12
Speaker
Yeah, I don't mind my cloggy jump putting it out there. Sam Walsh. Can't target him now. Yeah, it's 767 K. He was tagged on the weekend, Carlton lost. They fell apart. It's, it's pretty clear that it's going to happen again. I think, I think the tag center returned to Sam Walsh, but
00:36:30
Speaker
Just the, uh, the fact that he's got GWS in round 23 again. So you would assume he's going to cop Matt De Boer again, in which case, if you're an owner now, probably jumping off after round 22 as a little bit of a luxury trade.
00:36:47
Speaker
but you wouldn't bring him in because you might have to deal with his fifty five in eight weeks time. Can I just say though I did mention it and I've already said it once but he just didn't get used for any plus sixes and he was working for them and I think he could have been used it wasn't like.
00:37:04
Speaker
He was that the man was right on him like he outran his opponent whether that was the ball or whether they switched on to someone else I hear always had someone next to him. He was at work and he was still out working a man I actually think you can I think he could have broke I reckon he could easily had a 90 plus in this game he just did not get used by the carton players which I found bizarre it's like you've got a player that's copping a tag when he's free just give him the ball.
00:37:28
Speaker
Kick it to this is the same problem that they've had for years. Patrick Cripps was never protected and look how he's gone and now it's so hard for the share and given the given the pill. So we're talking about Matt DeBoer. Let's talk about some of the tags that could be in coming.
00:37:45
Speaker
Yeah. GWS next four, which I think that's our most relevant ones right now. We can address later on, Matt DeBore might not even stay in the team. So we don't want to go too crazy on this, but he's got Hawks, Melbourne, Gold Coast in Sydney, the next four, which would mean at Hawthorne, you would assume Tom Mitchell, maybe Jager O'Meara. At Melbourne, you would go Oliver or Petrarca.
00:38:09
Speaker
at Gold Coast could be talk but I don't think they tagged. I think it might be the star midfielder Braden Ferrena who came in gave us a show. They actually adjusted him up to 70. I just want to say.
00:38:25
Speaker
70 in the 60% time on ground. God, he's good. Gold Coast is the tricky one here, Dos, because after Tuk, the players that you would tag probably aren't worthy of tagging. So you got Brandon Ellis. He's probably number one on that list. But when you look at the other ones, Greenwood, he's an inside tackling midfield, Arow, he's not really in any form. Weller, he's not in any form. Anderson, I'm not sure you're going to tag him. So it's almost like the last guy standing is Tuk.
00:38:53
Speaker
Yeah and you wouldn't, like it's not the person for the job, Matt De Boer's not the guy, but like a Lakosius would be a guy that maybe could cop that defensive forward tag in a future but not in De Boer. Yeah, it could happen. Yeah, I think he's got a different skill set, but yeah, I don't know where you go there, probably took. And then finally Sydney, so that could be Mills, Parker or Josh Kennedy, I feel.
00:39:19
Speaker
Yeah. Josh Kennedy, second half of the year specialist came out again with a big score on the weekend. He's a good player. Yeah. Yeah. Um, yeah, that, I mean, I don't know. We never see if it continues. Yeah, we do. Matt De Boer got off the leash himself on
Mid-Price & Forward Player Strategies
00:39:34
Speaker
the weekend. What was with that?
00:39:36
Speaker
How do you mean? Did he score well? Oh, massive. Are you kidding? That's what I was saying. Yeah. So like I was playing, I was playing a bit of DFS. Um, and for, uh, I was telling Louie Prey show, playing DFS has been a, um, bit of a godsend for me. I don't, I don't usually do DFS. I'm not a huge, um, into gambling or anything like that, but the missus actually really pays attention to the footy when she gets to make a little team. So just chuck on a little, little cheeky team.
00:40:03
Speaker
And she gets involved in the footy, so I've been enjoying that but he killed me on the weekend 103 for Maddie DeBoer. That's massive. Wow. That'd be a career high score for Maddie DeBoer. Absolutely killed my lineups. But anyway, move on, Lou. All right. Should we move on to some mid prices, Dossie? Absolutely.
00:40:21
Speaker
All right, so if you're competing and you're very close to a completed team, like I've said, we're not pussyfooting around. We're not doing these Hail Marys. Like I said, Zach Bailey, I think Zach Williams probably falls under that boat. Your man, Jack Lakosius, I put under that umbrella as well, Dossie. I think these are the players that while the upside could be there.
00:40:42
Speaker
The downside is massive and at their ownership, you are just going to cop it, especially as you sail towards, hopefully with a wet sail around 23. So I want to talk about some mid prices and I've also included whether or not I think they can be a keeper. Yeah, cool. Which is what you want. So we'll start off with Jai Simkin.
00:41:00
Speaker
High ceiling Dossie and he was someone, I think in episode one of the Pod Pod, I said pretty keen on Jai Simkin. I think he can be a real underpriced option this year. And he's been all right. He's got a massive ceiling, but the problem is the reason he's averaging only, I think, 100, is it? A little bit less. Maybe less, man. I think he was only in the 80s last week. He's got a low floor Doss. So he's 65, 67, 52 and 63. 90.9.
00:41:29
Speaker
are included in 13 of his games. So, you know, three scores above 110 as well, and that includes a 110. So, you know, I did speak about that ceiling. It is there, but is it there often enough for you to jump on Jai Simpkin at 700K now? I'm not so sure, but if that's all you can afford, it's far from a bad option as well. And he could be serviceable at M8 for a little while if he can maintain some form.
00:41:55
Speaker
Yeah, he's going to be in the midfield because North are looking well and truly towards probably 20-29 at this stage, so they need to develop him. Look, I was happy for it to be a play during the buy rounds just because of that ceiling and it paid off. He's had 103, 126, 108 and his last three, one of them was pre-buys.
00:42:17
Speaker
Oh, he was also mid 600s at that point at this point. Um, they've actually, the one thing that I'd throw that could be a spanner in the works is, is Jed Anderson's only one to, I think he's, he was two to three last week. So he, he's going to be a week away and he's a guy that does chew up some center bounces. So I'd be wary of that as something going forward. Also that the magnets.
00:42:40
Speaker
could shuffle heading towards the end of the season for North. Now, Noble's actually been cheeky the last couple of weeks. He's tried to go for a few W's here in amongst this season. So we've seen like Cherry, you and I jumped on him thinking, oh, he's going to get rock time. They're not really serious about winning games. They're not. They're going to keep playing Goldie Ford. He's been playing forward with Tom Campbell in the side. All of a sudden Goldie's playing primo rock. Cherry's not getting his shot.
00:43:05
Speaker
I think we see as the last particularly tail end of the season, Simpkin should be safe, but, you know, guys like Connington move out of there. And does that midfield sort of struggle if they put in some guys, like maybe they put in Stevenson on the inside, any other. It becomes on Will Phillips. He's got to get a go on the inside at the end of the season. So that's what I'd be avoiding Simpkin. I think they might go back to their struggling ways. And that's why he's not a keeper for me in this list. So one that is Patrick Dangerfield.
00:43:34
Speaker
top six forward obviously there's no room for him to play forward either in that cat side so he's going to be playing full-time mid 698k with a massive break even at the moment so you can wait a week maybe two you probably want to see the form flip a little bit maybe dish up a 90 for you but absolutely Dangerfield is a keeper and he should be a massive target for all coaches over the next few weeks
00:43:57
Speaker
Yeah, breaking him is still 135. It is too high, isn't it? But Don's Carlton Freo, Richmond north after the Brisbane Lions this week. He does average over 100. Over 102 against every single opponent after the Essendon game. He's not had a significant average against Essendon. Don't know if that's injury affected or not, but he's only averages 86 against Essendon in around 16. From 17 onwards, that 102 plus average on the way home against his opponent.
00:44:26
Speaker
Mass if you know what you're going to get.
00:44:29
Speaker
Next up, we've got Kyle Langford. Now, I prefer him over Simpkin at a similar price. I think he might actually be about 20K cheaper. So I'm not as hot on him as others, but he could be there about the top six forward, especially with the right roll and especially with how thin the forward line still actually is in terms of being a bonafide top six to 10 forward. So I don't mind it. The problem is he's a little bit of a misdeficit guy. He's very adaptable and can play a lot of different roles.
00:44:59
Speaker
At one stage he might be playing midfield, another he might be plugging a whole half forward. Yeah, so Kyle Langford for me, I brought him in last week for starters. He was my trade in last week. I didn't see the Essendon game to know enough. I'd have to check the centre bounces. Was he in there? Because I think Stringer might have taken his centre bounce attendances, which is kind of why I brought him in was Kyle Langford was starting to attend centre bounces. And then Andy McGraw went down as well. We'd seen
00:45:28
Speaker
Yes, so he was, he was up towards 60% over his last three games. I think Kyle Langford after barely, barely attending center bounces all year. And then we saw in his last three, he's been averaging, you know, 107 in his last three. So do you think he gets those center bounces back? I mean, if I'd have to check it out. So just preface this with I'd have to check it out. But if he doesn't, if stringing starts getting those center bounces, I'd probably be lower on his ceiling personally.
00:45:52
Speaker
Well I think Stringer will he played a massive game on the weekend but the problem with I just think that Essendon are right on a knife's edge on whether they're gonna play finals or whether they're not and once they know they're not I can just see them throwing in Archie Perkins, Nick Cox
00:46:09
Speaker
into the midfield do it all and and really just show off the kids because that's what sort of the offseason was about for them look at us we're rebuilding we've got these three young kids so I could see that happening too and maybe Langford doesn't get as much opportunity but at the same time we're throwing darts at a board mate we don't know what they're gonna do and and based on what we've seen from Langford I think he only dished up an 82 on the weekend or whatever that's pretty decent if that's his floor
00:46:34
Speaker
Yeah, so I just want to throw out, yeah, and make sure you check out the Scent Abouts Attendants article on keeperleapod.com.au during the week. We dropped that on a Wednesday morning just to make sure that we are talking about the right stuff here on the Langford CBAs. But from round five to eight, this is Kyle Langford's Scent Abouts Attendants percentage. So not his actual Scent Abouts, but his percentage of Scent Abouts is attended. Twenty, twelve, zero, and three.
00:47:00
Speaker
Then we move to around nine to twelve. It was seventy seven, sixty six, seventy and sixty three. And that includes when he went on his run of, you know, hundred and seven in his last three includes those 60 plus percent percent center bounces. So that's why I picked him in my team. Yeah, let's not talk about Langford anymore, but I'm looking at those center bounces to make my decision if I'm an owner.
00:47:23
Speaker
You probably, last week I think was the time to get on. Now it's
Fantasy Potential of Key Players
00:47:28
Speaker
a little bit tricky, it's a bit of an awkward price now too. So we'll move on to, a bloke is actually cheaper than him and I've got as a keeper here, which is Locky Hunter.
00:47:38
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. Based on scoring history, I've got enough confidence in Locky Hunter at his cheap price tag to be able to jump on and hope that he can be a top six forward. And even if he's not, I don't feel like it's going to burn me much. Love Locky Hunter. Nothing to say there.
00:47:54
Speaker
and for the same reason Dusty Martin he's under priced still he's going to be close enough to a top six and he's got a high floor he rarely plays a poor game he might dish up a 70 here and there but generally he's pretty good for a 90 so don't mind Dusty Martin at his price Travis Boak
00:48:12
Speaker
Yeah, what do you think there, Dossi? I looked at him last week. What did he score this week? Was he okay? Yeah, he got turned up. Yeah, yeah, he's nice. He does turn up. I think he's going to turn up more weeks than not. So at his price tag of 700K, I think you are buying upside there. He's someone who I can see going on a run of 110s, especially if the Port midfield sort of need to step up, which they do. But at the same time,
00:48:41
Speaker
Do port shuffle the magnets around a little bit. They've got a just so many midfielders that can run through there. So I'd avoid as yeah, it might be the wrong call there, but I'd avoid just because last year I think he had his massive, massive season was last year, wasn't it? And.
00:48:58
Speaker
and dropped off towards the end of the year. I think he's done that the last couple of years. I think he starts strong and tails off. So it's kind of the opposite of the JPK, where JPKs traditionally just always goes bonkers in the second half of the year. I think Bont's been a bit like that, to be honest. This year's been the exception. Yeah, so I think Boak maybe might be the opposite way around. He also only averages 100 against two of his next opponents over the run home. At the same price though, if you're going Simpkin or Boak,
00:49:26
Speaker
I'm going boke. As am I. Absolutely. Still side bottom. I've got him as a keeper. Just. I'm not sure about this for old Zossi. He's someone I am worried about because he's at that awkward age of 29. He's not going to be part of the next good Collingwood side. But he's still a good enough player to really contribute to that side. So it's going to be interesting how Harvey plays him.
00:49:49
Speaker
he he's very adaptable so still side bottom can play a very good game up forward uh off half back on the wing which he's accustomed to or inside midfield so with his ceiling i certainly can't say that he's not a keeper in the forward line especially based on what we've got available there but
00:50:06
Speaker
but I don't know what that role is going to be. So I'd be, I actually traded him out this week. I'd be watching that role. Yeah. I think you're spot on mate. The, the unknowns of it and the fact he's a flexible players is massive concern. But the other thing is if they just go back to, we've seen Collingwood, the whole team be a fantasy friendly style of footy. They were kind of getting back towards that in the last game anyway.
00:50:34
Speaker
He could be relevant, but I agree. Like the role, the roles changing is probably, side bottom is probably one of the biggest ones for that that could be affected. That's it. And Pies could go into full self-preservation mode and just play all their guns in the mood field. And we're going to be laughing. But yeah, you wait a week on most of them just to see. One of the blokes I wouldn't know is the captain.
00:50:55
Speaker
Scott Pendlebury, he's priced at $592,000. That is ridiculously cheap, and we know why he's priced that way. He's had a few finger injuries this year, and he's had a bit of a sporadic roll, where they just plugged him in at half back due to those injuries and up forward a little bit there too. Well, he played four at the ages and then only played one game, started at half back.
00:51:17
Speaker
then moved into the guts then the next week Buckley was saying he's out so then he also played guts that week last week and now it's just again it's an unknown but you'd think again I do think I tend to think
00:51:32
Speaker
Generally, at least to start with, the incoming coach, I'll be, I'll be very, this is why I'm so interested to see what happens. I generally think if you're an incoming coach, Bob Harvey, waited for this opportunity for so long. He's probably like, look, I want to win games and show them that I can be the coach that stays here. So why wouldn't you go with pen bills? So I bought him, you know, it depends on the direction though too. The club might say, hey,
00:51:55
Speaker
You're not the coach, so play the kids, mate. Yeah, put a C on them. But yeah, with Scott Pendlebury, he's someone who, unless he's playing full forward or full back, I just don't see a world where Scott De Pendlebury does an average 90 plus. And we heard he was injured as well. That probably gives me greater confidence that he's well under priced. I think Warney tweeted out that he's going to be the most traded in play this week. He should be. Probably no doubt he will be.
00:52:20
Speaker
Dan Houston up next popular option last week and off the heart out almost swore he got off to Absolute belter mate. I think he was on about 50 at quarter time But I'd be picking pend was over him
00:52:35
Speaker
To be honest, I don't see Dan Houston being a bonafide top six defender, but he's going to be thereabouts close enough. So at his price, you'd certainly pick him, but there's other guys at his price that you might lean to more. So the Hawks game and the Port game was the two that I basically missed this week. Was Houston back in the guts or was he on the half back line again?
00:52:58
Speaker
He plays an interesting role. He sort of just sits out the back of stoppages and you sort of almost don't know if he's playing midfield or if he's just pushed up. Chris had 20 CBAs. Oh, I thought he was playing half back. Just push back.
00:53:15
Speaker
so much. Dan Houston is certainly an option, probably more like you said earlier with Jai Simpkin. He was probably a buy option, as in buy round option. Now it's hard to pay up and hope that he's going to be a top six defender. I'd be going elsewhere.
00:53:35
Speaker
He got scared me saying he's done his string in the third quarter, I think it was. So, what happened there? Well, I got a message from Sean Les Brown, came second last year and pops up on my phone. Houston's done a hammy and my heart just drops. As did mine when you relayed the message. And he was wrong. So, I look like an idiot and so does he, Sean, if you're listening. So, buddy, I'm Sean. Stitch me up, Sean. Next up, we got Nick Haynes. Probably,
00:54:04
Speaker
Probably the last week to jump on is this week. I think does he was another buy-around player, but at his price he's still value He's got a low breakeven and his scoring is kind of correlated with the Giants return to form So I think he could average 80 plus from here still a decent stepping stone But I'd still prefer to take a pic like this on with somebody else I just I don't see him being anywhere near a top averaging defender And I think he's honestly gonna be a headache
00:54:31
Speaker
in three to four weeks' time, which is why I sort of avoided him. Could be wrong and proved to be a very good pick on the weekend, but that's just why I think if he's anything but a stepping stone, I wouldn't consider it. Yeah, I like the- You need a plan for that stepping stone. I like the taking him on sort of style, but you're going here, but yeah, if you jumped on, well done.
00:54:52
Speaker
Caleb Daniel, he's been a mid-pricer pretty much since round five. Yeah, that's it. So his role though is a total mystery week to week. I know he's playing inside midfield at the moment, but you can't pay for him and not know where he's going to play. And to be fair though, you know, first week he got in the seventies, I think it was playing inside mid-seventy nine, looked pretty comfortable though. I laid a few tackles this week, just looked right at home playing in the midfield.
00:55:19
Speaker
Be surprised if he stays there. Tell you what, Bali Smith would look a whole lot better in there. Toby Green. I've got him as a keeper, mate. Phenomenal player and he can score as a forward and as a midfielder. And after this week's performance, I do think he'll be parked at full forward a lot more often than not. And he'll still have those midfield rotations, but
00:55:41
Speaker
Perhaps that ceiling might be governed a little bit by getting on the end of a couple of snags, but for me, he's going to be near enough a top six forward. And he's got that, like you said, I think last week on the pod pod, um, Dossie, the upside that is there, if he can snag a couple of quarters in the midfield is just incredible. So, uh, I'm actually really hot on Toby green and yeah, he's someone I've got as a keeper.
00:56:06
Speaker
Thing is he's probably priced at what he scores. He's got that ceiling potential. So that's it. Yeah. So it's a punt. Uh, I sort of bought him in this week as a 90 averaging forward thinking that's okay. You know, he hasn't really burnt anybody with a poor score. Um, just would, but it's just, if he moves in the mid though, and that was why I took the punt just in case. And I was watching that first in a bounce, like a hawk. Unfortunately it wasn't in there. That was good.
00:56:31
Speaker
And the thing is once he if he does get a midfield role, you know, everyone's gonna jump on So it's like you're just hoping that week that you're the owner Where he does move that's me goes the 150 and you've got the leg up. But yeah, I know you mean There's your next couple just wrap this up here. Dossie Patrick Cripps. I think he's a roller coaster I know he's still cheap. But look I just avoid this one especially with all that's going on at Carlton and Matt Rao
00:56:57
Speaker
He's on this list because he looks cooked, Dossie. I could not believe it. Obviously, they played port, so I was watching quite closely on the weekend. There's no effort. He's sticking one hand out. He's running like his buddy watched too much Naruto with his arms behind his back. He's totally limp on the right side. So I'd want to see something from Matt Rau. And even then, I'd want it to be seriously significant. It would have to be a huge score.
00:57:26
Speaker
He's in the back pocket for 2022 for me now. I think I mentioned it last week on the Pod Pod. I certainly was telling you guys on the group chat during the week as well that we've got. And maybe Pod Pod Plus, just Matt Rouse, a guy that is such a popular cult hero as well, that the moment he does get a 90, he's going to be owned by every single fantasy coach out there. He'll be like the Pendles bringing this week. Everyone would just jump on him straight away. Do you take him on?
00:57:52
Speaker
I just I'm I'm taking on a player like that that like you said hasn't shown the ceiling and like I think it's just so unfair and Matt Rouswell he's a second year player that's had two significant injuries in what he's played under 10 games so from his perspective obviously he's a young player I just
00:58:10
Speaker
You know, one day he'll get back to his best, no doubt. But I think it's so much pressure on a young player to be doing well. I think maybe even should have just had a couple of runs in the VFL just to get that that run back in the legs. Hopefully for people that jumped on, he could he could return that form. But he's certainly a guy I'd be taken on.
Rookie Players to Watch
00:58:25
Speaker
See if he can get back to his best first. And that's that, isn't it, Ludo? You've got through all these players. Let's hit up Show Me The Money. Show me the money! Show me the money!
00:58:37
Speaker
Show me the money, Louie. I'm just going to race through these players. We're at the hour mark already on the show. This is what happens when you let me be in charge of running the show. I just run through. I'll just read out the list here. Now you've compiled this list. These are the best rookies that we've got for the week and luckily this week compared to last week.
00:58:57
Speaker
So many options. Boil for choice, mate. Ridiculous. So you just comment, you give us a quick word or sentence answer. Joel Amity, $2.60K, a $2.61K ruck forward. He's averaging $83K with a negative $29K break even. Must have rookie at this point in the season. Jump on, ride the cash, and it's going to be useful in a month's time. Luke Foley, a $2.30K. He's a defender, I reckon. $54.3K average with a negative $24K break even.
00:59:26
Speaker
Uh, played more across half back. I think he is a midfielder, Doss, but played across half back. So probably competing with Nelson for the role. So I like him over the next guy, which we're about to mention, Luke Edwards. He's a defender. He's available as a defender.
00:59:42
Speaker
And yeah, actually, I thought it looked really good the week before. Minus 24 break even too. Both these West Coast rookies, if they get named, looked really good. As a West Coast fan, I was very happy to see, because it's been a question of West Coast list, not to get too much into it, that we don't have the depth and the young guys coming through to see that was so promising for me as well as Alex Witherden in the twos racking up.
01:00:04
Speaker
Luke Edwards of course 241k we've just mentioned him 72.5 average looked amazing against Richmond negative 23 break even this here guy you're looking at no I don't think so he is he's an option if he plays but I think he only plays one more week so potentially you've got yourself a little bit of a red dot there
01:00:41
Speaker
Yeah, he's in really good form at the moment. Probably his last chance. I think he might be a sneaky chance to get traded at the end of the year because Ned Reeves has come on. Pick him once named, but I'm not sure it's going to be this week or next. Yeah, Kieran Briggs, 215K, 53.5 average. Had a pretty good game on the weekend within the 60s, negative three break even. What do you think of Briggs' game on the weekend? Yeah, he looks good.
01:00:45
Speaker
looked real good. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see.
01:01:07
Speaker
He looked good. He lined up at the first center bounce, which was good to see. Sort of split the rock duties 50-50 with Flynn and Flynn was better up forward, I thought. So maybe that's a good sign moving forward. Have you seen a Mumford injury update yet? We'll have to...
01:01:22
Speaker
No, I see. I don't even know what's wrong with him. Yeah. I just saw his engine. Yeah. It wasn't on the injury report so far. So maybe if that's updated, I think they do update that tonight. He's probably just sore. He could just be soreness. Yeah. But keep an eye on mummy. If not, if he's, if he's backed, you just not worry about Briggs.
01:01:42
Speaker
If he's named I'd look at him but because his DPP is seriously handy but but it's always a question with job security we've seen it all year it's been the story of the of the Giants ruckman season with Flynn Briggs and and mummy pretty much chopping out there
01:01:58
Speaker
Yeah, have a look. I think the injury update is on Tuesday morning. JamesMadden265K 55.3 average, 5 break, Kevin. Looked actually pretty good on the weekend though. Looked good. High price tag now though, and his job security is probably not much better than some of these other candidates, so. He looks good. Personally, I'd avoid now, but the DPP is nice.
01:02:19
Speaker
Yeah, John Nukem, 236k came back to earth in his second game compared to that amazing Daboo, 57 average, seven break even. John Nukem. Yeah, Clarko sounds like he wanted to give the kid a real crack in the post-game presser next week, so it sounds like he's going to be playing. He should maintain the role and I reckon he's going to find a few more tackles because he got, what was it, 14 on Daboo and just had the three last week, so I think he'll get
01:02:46
Speaker
a little bit better and his floor I think it can be about 55 if he gets on the end of those tackles. Lucky bramble for the Hawks as well coming in for that to boo I wasn't one to jump on but a lot of people had to this week scrambling for numbers and did okay 43 13 break even and 183 K price tag.
01:03:04
Speaker
Yeah he used the ball well and being a 23 year old pre-season supplementary pick he's a decent chance to get a run of games over the next couple of weeks I think because obviously Hawthorne 17th on the ladder they're going to start looking towards their future and when you're 23 there's a pretty short window to show that you're part of that so I think he might get a string of games here so I actually like him as an option if named.
01:03:27
Speaker
Just wanna, there's a last name here that's just out of nowhere and it feels like a bit of an exclusive here, but we got Deal Williams, 170k rookie, uh, looks like a port player there, Ludac.
01:03:41
Speaker
Yeah Port player, so sometimes you need 170k rookie just to get up on the other end of your trade. So he hasn't played a game yet. I'm sort of just backing him into Taboo here. He's got the 25 break even. He kicked six on the weekend in the Sandfall and Port only kicked about seven goals total. So he kicked about 80% of their scoring. Nine scoring shots and Robbie Gray
01:04:07
Speaker
Just went down with a knee injury and he's out for two months now. So I think that's probably a bit of an obvious replacement. And we'll see if that comes to fruition at the end of the week, Doss. Yeah, so Dil Williams scored the 92 in the sample as well, fantasy points-wise. So that is from six goals, though. So he'd just provide you a heartbeat on the field. Another player from the VFL, Matt Parker. Oh, how did he go? Three-cycled, got 112 fantasy points. But he's priced.
01:04:37
Speaker
About 350, isn't he? Yeah, so he had 20 touches and 10 tackles. I wonder if that means he's more in and around the footy. Probably still a forward you'd imagine. Yeah, he's tackling forward. So those are a few numbers from the VFL. Also a guy, Will Phillips, that we said he continues to build some really good form. 30 touches, 7 tackles as well. He had 108. So he's still kind of rookie priced, but a bit on the more expensive side. He's a guy that I think will get a run.
01:05:02
Speaker
towards the end of the season. And just a shout out as well, cheaper option here. A guy that if you are looking at the Matt Rouse of the world, if this guy ever gets a gig, Pat Lipinski, 143 fantasy points on the weekend for the dogs. He's a
Trade Timing & Player Alternatives
01:05:15
Speaker
good player, man. Yeah, 36 touches, five clearances.
01:05:18
Speaker
Those stats there are thanks to caperleaguepod.com.au. You can sign up for a full membership there to get all the Sandfall VFL waffle numbers every single week, so they support us. They're the sponsor of the show, so if you want to support them as well, you can go sign up there. You also get access to the Breakout Tracker, Advance, to Centibounce attendance table, so I did the Centibounce attendance article there. You get all the tables which are
01:05:42
Speaker
Super handy, I've been very much checking them out and using them to help me as well target my players weekly. So, Lou Dog, we'll really quickly get through as many questions as we can here as we hit up Twitter. We are at Pod Pod AFL on Twitter. Louis, what are you on Twits? At Louis AF, so give us a follow. And I'm at HK Doss. Let's get to the ones from at Pod Pod AFL.
01:06:14
Speaker
Okay, this first question comes from Lockymauks. What are your opinions on Pendle's cheap forward with a history of decent scores? Just worried about the new coach? I reckon we've touched on that loo dog, but overall you like him? Absolutely. Yep. I think there's very little downside based on his price. Same here. Right on the boat. Simpkin is the best mid I can afford with who I want to trade out. Do I pull the trigger to bring in a Penderbury and wait a week for a midfield injection?
01:06:40
Speaker
Absolutely. That was actually before you finished that sentence. I was going to say, well, don't try it in a midfielder then because there's some options under 700K that you can get to as a forward or a defender that I think are going to average more. Great. Tom DT can't go up, can't go one up, one down any to anyone decent. Is it better to upgrade a mid price of this week if that's the case? So we've talked about upgrading those mid price options. If you can't go one up, one down to get to that gun that you want, is it just better to get the mid price up?
01:07:09
Speaker
Yeah, because if you nail that premium, then you are better off, you know, 40 points. But at the same time, I mean, the guy can't go one down, one up so that he might be, he might just have to go that way. And it's OK because you can still generate points that way. Sweet. Simon Merton went to school with Simon. Hope you're going well, mate. Petrarcha value pick low 700s for a 108 average mid. Yeah, we both love Petrarcha, I reckon.
01:07:34
Speaker
Yep, absolutely. Only thing that we did flag is that Matt De Boer will go to him, possibly him or Oliver in round 16. Yeah, I reckon Oliver's the one that seems to cop the tags from coaches. Yeah, Petrarch is a very good forward, so he can sort of hide up there, can't he? Yeah, he can shake it a bit. Brown Sam discussed some alternatives to Pendlebury this week at a similar price. Billings Hunter or Bolton, personally leaning towards Martin with the Tigers fixture coming up.
01:08:03
Speaker
Tigers do have a good fixture. There's a few guys that you didn't mention in that sort of, I guess mid price or under 700K price tags anyway in Billings and Bolton. We mentioned Hunter and we both like Hunter as an option, but Billings or Bolton. Billings probably doesn't have the form. Bolton though, they've got a nice run and he's looking great in the midfield.
01:08:23
Speaker
Yeah, Billings doesn't have the form, so you want to see it before jumping on a player like that, obviously a bit of a confidence player. No, Shai Bolton wasn't in my list, maybe a little bit of an oversight, but I'm not heaps keen on him because he has had a ripping season, but no one's really been on him. So I think coaches are going to click in that, hey, Shai Bolton, he's a bit of a barometer for the Tigers. Let's put someone on him and hold him accountable.
01:08:47
Speaker
Look, his ceiling hasn't been massive this season. He's got a high score of 122, but he's got a low score of 38. So granted that was back at the start of the season, probably wasn't playing the same role, but I think he's sort of that high half forward rotating midfielder player who gets on the end of a good score when he hits the scoreboard. But yeah, he's awkward and at 675k you can go to better options.
01:09:13
Speaker
95 in his last three. Yeah, it's he's only done that. Well, he had that run of tons, but I think that was maybe when there was a few less midfielders around him as well. You know what? I'd actually I'd actually like Billings as a random pod to jump on Richmond and Collingwood in the next couple. That's if you're in my situation, you're not, you know, you're not contending there. He's a nice pod with a massive ceiling. I'll just say that. But out of those, your safest, safest option is probably Hunter there or the Dusty. Which one do you go? Dusty or Hunter?
01:09:41
Speaker
Or Hunter for sealing and then Dusty. All right, Xavier Kramer. I can get to Darcy, but not Grundy this week. Is Darcy a top six forward? Absolutely. Because then I can move him there after getting Grundy later. Darcy, top six forward? I think he's got it. I think he might be now. Yeah, he's gotten over the line. I think he's going to average 95-ish. So that should put him well and truly up in that top six-ish.
01:10:11
Speaker
Very keen to see how he goes against Grundy this week. Yeah, I don't mind it. So he's asking, should I bring in Sean Darcy as a forward? Yeah, instead of he can only get to Darcy this week, but not Grundy. So is he a top six forward? That way he can bring in Darcy this week, chuck him forward, and then when he can afford Grundy. If you like Sean Darcy, I think he'd be a top six forward.
01:10:32
Speaker
Heather made a bigger priority this week. Grundy or Whitfield? Whitfield? Oh, Whitfield. Yeah, absolutely. People eat K's. When does a sandwich or roll become a burger? When it's a circle.
01:10:43
Speaker
Okay, I don't have an answer to that one. They caught me on guard there. Yeah, Miller Time, they're having a back and forth. I'll let Miller Time and Kiefer League and Kaze figure that one out. Alex Grossman, best option for Mitch Duncan replacement. I think we've covered a stack in this part. Yeah, we've. You probably just pick your favorite out of those.
01:11:03
Speaker
Brady beer thoughts on
Creative Trading & Player Replacement
01:11:05
Speaker
pandals. Yeah, yeah like him Fin would you prioritize getting the last rookie off-field like Amity or trade underperforming primos first? So this is pretty much the the theme of the podcast if you will so get rid of the the Phillips He's got a Zach Williams and a Bailey Smith Or do you just you know rock Amity on the field considering he's serviceable and get rid of those guys. Oh
01:11:27
Speaker
I tend to complete because Amity is a rookie and he could easily dish out a 40, could easily be dropped the following week and the following week after that you're sitting there, oh, I had these trades up my sleeve and I don't have a completed side. So I like to just get it done because injuries happen, drops happen, players get rested, all these sorts of variables. So now I'd be focusing on completing my team, I think.
01:11:54
Speaker
This final question comes from Nick Papadados. Observable thirst power rankings. Who wants it more out of Hind, Aaron Hall and Oleg Markov? Those are definitely some guys. That would be top three right there. There's some guys out there that are very thirsty. Who wants it more out of those three though?
01:12:16
Speaker
Oh, man, that is a good question. I think I think Hall. I think it's Hall. He's too thirsty. He's so it's just the way he begs for it. I don't know whether the the arms flailing around, whether he's that sort of a thirsty type operator. Oleg Markov, though, he's not thirsty enough because he doesn't actually get it a lot. They don't use it. That's why he runs right up to the Ford 50. So that makes me think maybe he should be screaming a little louder.
01:12:45
Speaker
Maybe. Yeah, he's got to trim that moustache. It's sort of... What about hide? I have seen him illustrate some thirst. A clear sign of the observable thirst is locked arms. So they are dead straight. They're screaming for the bullet. They're almost on a 90 degree angle backwards while they're screaming.
01:13:06
Speaker
I actually think might be up there in genuine AFL, entire AFL top three. And he actually got dropped this week and I think it might have been due to the flailing arms around. He got dropped last week. Locky Ash. Genuinely. That was... I couldn't believe he was dropped. Genuinely thirsty though. He's got to be up there with it. Watch him next time or watch one of the replays. Gee, he's a thirsty man. I'm going Aaron Hall.
01:13:32
Speaker
Mark of Hind. I think, I think I just gets into smart positions. He does. On the same. I reckon. Yeah. All right. Thanks for that question. That's a good one to finish off with. You can follow us at Pod Pod AFL as well. If you want to follow us on Twitter. There's a few on Facebook though that I forgot. We'll quickly touch on these. Michael, I held Duncan through the concussion and buys. That's so brutal. Do I trade him to Lions and trade Lockie Jones to Amity or trade Duncan to Pendles and upgrade Dev Rob to Dusty?
01:14:00
Speaker
The second option, absolutely. I was going to say before with that other question, I'd be getting creative with Mitch Duncan, so he's at a nice price where you might be able to go down to an underperforming upside player and get up on the other end, so it's a great trade tick. Brad Harrison, boys Duncan. He's another Duncan owner here. Spare a thought for the poor fella, spare two for his owners. Options for me, he has two rookies on field, could be one pending.
01:14:28
Speaker
Duncan and Cozy out, he's got four options for us here. Pendles and Rael, Titch and Amity on field, Zach Bailey and Degoet, Degoey there. That's a hard attack there, not going that one. Took Anna 170k or Grundy in and Amity on field.
01:14:45
Speaker
Oh geez, that's a lot of options. I liked one and two, Doss. Pendles and Rowell. You'd go Titch and Amity. I was at Pendles and Rowell. No, I wouldn't go that. No, Titch and Amity, I guess, or Grundy and Amity. You can't bring in Zach Bailey now. No, no, and I said that at the top of the show. Yeah, the upside's gone now. Honestly, I'd just go. I'd go Grundy and Amity, I think. Just because you bank in the best Ruckman, aren't you?
01:15:09
Speaker
Yeah. And we've said Titch doesn't, he could potentially have to bore this week. Possibly. Possibly. So maybe the Grunge just go the point of difference. He's somehow possibly a bit of a point of difference now. Every coach is going to want him. So yeah, why not get on him? And if everyone's bringing in Pendles this week, that means that Grundy's not getting in for most people unless they got like a billion dollars in the bank. All right. Josh Scudina. Hey, doesn't Louis love your work and hope the buy around was successful for your sites. Thank you. Thank you, Josh. I think we'd both say it was a success.
01:15:35
Speaker
Yeah, it was great. I'm just so happy it's overdos. He's managed to climb from the rank of 6K pre-buy to now sitting at a rank of 4,291. Congratulations. I went up two up, two down last week. And now with only 23K in the bank, he's had a loss on how to continue to climb. He's only got one rookie left on field, Cozzie, as well as Burgess, that he needs to move on from R2. Chrissy Burgess, what a great option he's made this year for us.
01:16:04
Speaker
He's considering downgrading Nick Newman and turning Chrissy Burgess into Grundy or Darcy, but that puts another playing rookie in his backline. Any other suggestions? No, you don't want to be adding rookies this time of year because it's a slippery slope. So he can't go down and go up at all like that other person that asked a question.
01:16:26
Speaker
Yeah, that's probably, is this a situation where you get creative with one of these players? Like if you've got a Darcy Parrish or if you just got one of those big, big dogs out there, we saw it pay off with Zebel. Obviously Darcy Parrish we don't think is going to tail off, you know, to average 10 or 15 points less than it is. I mean, maybe five, you know, I don't know. What do you think, Louise? That's where you'd start getting creative. Yeah, I'd get creative. So you mentioned
01:16:52
Speaker
You know, we've mentioned in this podcast that you can grab these blokes that have done well for you. Let's I'm going to use James Harms as an example. So he's about six hundred K. If you went down to Nick Haynes, you make a hundred K. That's a creative way to get up on, let's say, Tom Phillips up to a six hundred and fifty K. You know, Michael Patrick Cripps, who knows? But
01:17:14
Speaker
Get creative and in those types of situations that's where I wouldn't worry as much about the risk because the alternative is you're just leaving points that could have been had on a riskier option anyway. Does that make sense Doss?
01:17:29
Speaker
It doesn't really. It does. It's getting late in the show. I think it makes enough sense to me that we wrap it up there. We've done our time. A big stomper
Conclusion & Post-Buy Best Wishes
01:17:38
Speaker
episode for you. Hope you enjoyed that and good luck for the rest of the post-bike period now. It's a good stretch. It's exciting. It is exciting. Lots of trades to work through. Remember, if you want to sign up to Pod Pod Plus for an extra Wednesday episode, you can go ahead and do that. But otherwise, we'll see you next Monday. Good luck.