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Round 1 Preview!!!!! #PODPOD
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Opening round has been and gone and the 2025 AFL Fantasy season is officially here! We have seen two full games, opening round over reactions are in full swing and the eve of round 1 is here. The most exciting time of the fantasy season is here and the PODPOD has you covered
On this episode, Harmey is MIA but Lew and Sam join Holmesy to dissect the opening round and prepare you for round 1. We discuss the hits and misses from round 0, the strategy surrounding round 0 players and whether they become viable or not, locks for round 1, debutants whilst answering a stack of listener questions! Letttttssss goooo!
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Transcript
Anticipation for AFL Fantasy Season
00:00:19
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod, it's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Monday, 10th of March. That's right, opening round has been and gone. We are on the eve of round one.
00:00:31
Speaker
The fantasy season is is about to kick off and boy, things are lighting up here at Pod Pod HQ. There's no Harmy this week. He's been a staple all preseason. He's decided to pull a pure statesman move and go MIA in the week leading up to round one when we desperately need him. So we really appreciate that Harmy, but we've managed to get him back.
00:00:53
Speaker
Lou, thanks for jumping on again, mate. How excited are you in the lead up to round one and and how's your team settling? Oh, really excited. it's It's just around the corner now. It's about 72 hours um recording this tonight on a Monday night. So, um yeah, the team's looking pretty settled. You know, I get bored, Holmesy and Sam. Sometimes I tinker around and I do some silly things, but generally by the end of the night, it's um it's returning to the same way I sort of had it. So,
00:01:23
Speaker
um Yeah, hoping to keep this structure and hopefully no little bullets pop up in the next couple of days, which um sometimes seems to be the case in fantasy, but looking forward to it.
Weekend Highlights and Draft Victories
00:01:35
Speaker
Yeah, and looking forward to deep diving into some of these silly things that you've been talking about, Lou, because I always, ah like the messages that come through. you you You throw up these options and it makes me think about it differently, but you are right. We tend to just go back to the norm, but I am keen to keen to discuss them. And Sam, you're back with us for another week, three in a row, pretty much part of the the PodPod family now.
00:01:57
Speaker
How was your ah weekend? Did you watch a bit of footy and are you excited for round one? Yeah, thanks, Holmes. yeah I had an absolutely fantastic weekend because, of course, I out-drafted the pants off you um in our home league draft, and that's despite having Jack Graham at f two I did manage to get to watch a bit of footy as well and watched my my ruck that I drafted on the weekend, Briggs, get folded in half by Sam Taylor. So, look, mixed results um across Saturday and Sunday, but very excited to be here.
00:02:29
Speaker
Yeah, that's ah that's a good but good segue, Sam. So let's get into some of our hot
Reacting to Unexpected Performances
00:02:34
Speaker
topics. And the first one is opening round. Now, there's been a bit of a there's ah there's a general rule that we like to say as content creators around the preseason is that there's there's always these players that pop up light And we say the rule is if you haven't been considering them throughout the preseason, then you really shouldn't be um you know just throwing them in during opening round because of a big score. And and I get it. Back in the day, we didn't have opening round.
00:03:01
Speaker
And say a rookie or mid-pricer got up before round one. You hadn't been considering them before and you just throw them in your team. And it's a little bit of a disaster, Lou. But round zero is different. We've seen them in a live game.
00:03:14
Speaker
I think it's perfectly okay to adjust our sides knowing that we've got a price baked into their score already and we've seen their role in ah in a real-life game. So we're going to get into it a little bit. But what are you thinking with the opening round? Are we being too reactionary? Are we being not reactive enough?
00:03:29
Speaker
What are your thoughts? ah Well, we can't spend the whole preseason sort of hyping up this cheat code of ah of an opening round and then not actually react to it. Like we do need to read into some sorts of things and role is going to be one that's probably the most prevalent, but um scoring is where things can get um a little bit more difficult. So I'm I'm sure we're going to discuss some of these players. theres There's a few that I think people probably penciled in during the preseason that would have some upside in like a Will Day and Lockie Ash, Finn Callaghan that looked great. And then there's ones that, you know, they come out of nowhere and that might be a Sam Taylor or a Sam Wicks. don't know about you, but Sam Taylor's been circled for me probably since August last year for my fantasy side. Yeah.
00:04:17
Speaker
there's a bit of nuance to it now so we need to sort of figure out what is a calculated risk and what is maybe introducing a bit too much risk into a team that when we're starting our scores we don't know what's going to happen you know there might be two three four mid prices or premiums that um just don't look good they fail they get injured suspended uh there's all sorts of things that can happen so we need to be able to remain flexible Sam, do you echo Lou with those thoughts around round zero? i'
00:04:51
Speaker
I'm still looking, yeah, I think it's a ah perfect example of of proper AFL games and knowing that we've got a score baked in. If we can project out, we can see you know roughly what they're going to be priced at over the next two, three, four weeks and and start to plan ahead. But what are you thinking with opening round?
00:05:09
Speaker
No, absolutely disgusted with Louie's sensibility there. um Sam Taylor went 118. He had 10 intercept marks. He's obviously the greatest player of 2025, and he's now locked into my side.
00:05:20
Speaker
um oh All being serious, I think Louis makes some very good points. And, um you know, these guys, we do have to remember that they they still do have a buy coming up, and so we've got to think about them closely, about what we'll do with them on their buy round and how much money they'll make before and after that as well.
Injury Impacts and Ruck Strategy
00:05:42
Speaker
Yep, and we're going to get into some of these players into more depth soon, Sam, but I'm going to stick with you because it's a bit of ah a touchy subject. But Kieran Briggs goes down after only scoring eight points.
00:05:55
Speaker
They've said that he's ruled out with concussion, which is going to be the 21-day period. I don't know whether that makes him available in round three or round four. Clearly he's going to be cheap, but a lot of people now are are sort of moving towards a Max Gorn, seeing what Darcy Cameron did against Lockie Keefe in that game. And we know Max is a very big scorer on his day and that opens up his run.
00:06:19
Speaker
Is that where you're kind of ah leaning towards now with the the Briggs injury? Do you think it's possible to go a Max Gorn against a ah Tristan Cherry with the the tough run that we've discussed before? i think it is, and um and I watched Gorn's percentage ownership just creep up over the weekend, just a couple of percent.
00:06:40
Speaker
um But if Darcy Cameron can go 130 against Lockie Keefe, then i think we all know what Max Gorn could do. The only reason I think it's an option as well is because the other guys worth talking about in that R1 category, Cherry, English, they also have difficult runs.
00:07:00
Speaker
And I think you can get clever with maybe a Gorn to Briggs in round five or something when Briggs is cheap. Or, you know, you could do a De Koning to Briggs in round five and maybe you start with Cherry.
00:07:11
Speaker
But it's worth discussing, I think.
Game Rescheduling and Player Viability
00:07:14
Speaker
Lou, knowing that we're potentially going to get a Briggs who um I'm only presuming here, but he was priced around 90 or just above to start. He's now got that 8 baked into his price cycle, which means you know he might be priced around 87 or something after this game. and He comes back with a huge break even if we're potentially able to get a Kieran Briggs down around an 80 price point at some point in the near future. Does that make you more or less keen to start a well ah Tom De Koning, but you know maybe someone else as ah that sort of mid-price ruck knowing that now we have a parachute option down in a month or so?
00:07:50
Speaker
ah No, I'd still prefer not to mess around. I'd like that sort of staple there at R1. But um starting a Tom Deconi is probably the one I've got circled in terms of um getting to Briggs when one he's nice and cheap. I think we can make a couple of 100k there and improve our side elsewhere while probably not sacrificing any points. I think a lot of people are quite bullish on a Kieran Briggs anyway. There might be some... um Yeah, it's probably going to be very similar scoring there. So, yeah, I'm a fan of that sort of play, I think.
00:08:23
Speaker
Yep, really like that. And Lou, i'll stick with you. We mentioned it briefly in our last podcast, but at the time of recording, it hadn't been confirmed. So Cyclone's gone through. We did have those games rescheduled, which now means that Geelong and Brisbane are playing their game in round three.
00:08:39
Speaker
All preseason, we'd spoken about these players. It's a little bit tougher to start knowing that they're going to have a bye and they were sharing the round three bye with a lot of our popular players. Who out of Geelong and Brisbane now shoot into calculations for you knowing that they're they're now going to play with everyone else?
00:08:55
Speaker
i Just off the top of my head, Dane Zorko is probably a big one there at D1 potentially. He's got a great run to start the year. That's one we didn't consider um alongside a Max Holmes and a Tom Stewart from Geelong um that can also occupy that sort of space. There's plenty of upside potentially in those picks there.
00:09:14
Speaker
Through the midfield, you've got Will Ashcroft, who I think a lot of coaches were considering regardless. A couple of others. Holmes, help me out here. Yeah, some of the i mean the Geelong boys, let's quickly go into We've got Nevitt who's a bit of a mid-pricer. Yeah, let's go there. Let's deep dive there, because Nevitt and Sam De Koning, we wanted the cheat code on those players because we wanted to see roll.
00:09:39
Speaker
um Does that make it more or less keen for you now to start these players knowing that yes, we're going to have them for the bye, but now we're kind of picking them blind knowing that we really don't know what that Geelong midfield is going to be like with a Bailey Smith. And although Sam De Koning had the CBA role, he still only had that sort of 50% ruck contest around the ground showing that he wasn't necessarily a ruckman during the play. So are you more or less likely to jump into those players?
00:10:06
Speaker
ah To be honest with you, I'm probably less likely. um ah just don't trust Chris Scott. He says one thing and does another. and If this was at another side, I think I'd be more inclined to take the risk.
Risk Management in Player Selection
00:10:18
Speaker
um That being said, you know certainly with like a Sam De Kony, we're running out of options back there. so If you do have to take the risk on on these players, then i ah think you need to come up with a sort of a parachute plan to get off them.
00:10:32
Speaker
um if they're not going to go well. Nevitt one's probably pretty easy because he's relatively rookie priced, just above that price. um But Sam De Koning's probably one that deserves um a bit of thinking just because if he fails, i don't know if he's at D5 or D6, where do you go? Because you know we're struggling for options as a starting squad, let alone when um those options start to dwindle out in in a trade scenario.
00:10:58
Speaker
Yep, Sam, I agree there on Sam De Koning. It's a little bit hard with the cheap rookies that we have in defence at the moment. Let's go to the other end. We've been struggling for D1 options. Does Tom Stewart or Max Holmes come into calculation for you now knowing that they don't have a bite?
00:11:14
Speaker
I um ah like Max Holmes a lot, um but I don't think he's going to move the needle much this year. um Looking forward to him proving me wrong, mainly because I think he'll have a very similar role to what he did last year.
00:11:29
Speaker
um It might be that he gets a little bit more midfield time, ah but I'm not sure he's necessarily a guy that scores better when he plays midfield than he does off halfback. um I'll throw it back to you for Tom Stewart, Holmesy, because I know you're ah you're a big fan.
00:11:44
Speaker
um Do you think Tom Stewart's going to get this this midfield time we've all been hearing about? Man, I'm just a, I'm an absolute sucker for punishment. I think I had him two years ago, started him when no one else really did. He was unders, but he i think he had a 14 in round one and got injured.
00:12:02
Speaker
It's just what Tom Stewart does. i't I'll talk to Lou about this one as well. What do we know about Tom Stewart? There was a shift into the midfield late last year, I think from round 14 or 15 onwards.
00:12:13
Speaker
And I think a lot of that was to escape the tag, a little bit similar to what Hawthorne are doing with James Cicely, except Cicely's playing forward, not midfield. um So Stewart goes into the midfield, he gets some CBAs and then floats back into defence. And because he's still a midfielder, you know, he often gets that mixed match and they're not worried about tagging him. And and his scoring was through the roof.
00:12:33
Speaker
um He was scoring hundreds for fun. It's just whether he's got that role to start the year. The preseason game would indicate that. I think he had 12 CBAs in that game and they were spreading it a little bit. Chris Scott's come out and said that he wants to have a Dangerfield-Stewart-Nebbett midfield combo. So there's wording there as well.
00:12:52
Speaker
Who really knows with Geelong, it's a risky start. I mean, I don't think you're going to get burned by Tom Stewart unless he gets tagged in one of his first few games as a defender. I suppose you can get burned injury-wise, but that's the same for for any player, Lou.
00:13:05
Speaker
But Tom Stewart, i know I know you're interested, but have you kind of wavered over the last week or so? um not No, I'm interested. And I don't think um I'm ever going to be able to fully convince someone on Tom Stewart because what we saw last year, he went 107 when he was in the midfield, 73% CBAs. And it's anyone's guess whether that happens again. We know that Geelong want to change up that midfield makeup a little bit. We saw Jack Bowes in there plenty.
00:13:32
Speaker
um Mitch Nevitt's a new one that's popped in there. um Obviously, Bailey Smith is there as well. So I think... yeah That volatility there does worry me a little bit, but on the other hand, you know it is Tom Stewart, and I think he's going to be a massive part of Geelong sort of going around again. I think they're going to have another crack at this flag, and he'll be an integral part of that. So I don't see Tom Stewart burning you either. I think he's a 90 average player, priced at 87.
00:14:00
Speaker
There's a few points upside. If he goes into that midfield, it's it's a bit of a smash pig, especially if he goes 100 for a sustained period of time. Yep, and I'm not saying I'm going to do it, but he's definitely someone I'm considering.
00:14:15
Speaker
Maybe I wouldn't have been considering as much if we had more underpriced options to go, but just because the defense is so thin, he's someone that I'm playing around with. All right, lads, so what we're going to do now is we're going to deep dive into the opening
Debating Must-Start Players
00:14:28
Speaker
round game. So starting with Sydney and Hawthorne from that Friday night.
00:14:33
Speaker
Hard not to start with Will Day. Absolute hit. 129, 73% game time. Looked unreal. Did cop a tag in that second half, which hindered his scoring as well as are getting a little bit injured and spending some time on the pine.
00:14:49
Speaker
Lou, I'll throw to you just because I know Sam's thoughts on Will Day. Is it a case now if we have to start him or is there is there still an option to fade him knowing that maybe this ah this performance teams are going to stand up and notice and and maybe they put more time into it?
00:15:06
Speaker
I still think there's the opportunity to fade him um if you're not particularly keen. There are some players that are priced similarly around him that I could understand ah coaches being bullish on, but we do know that this guy's got um baked in value now. Like he's going to go up a frightening amount over the next two weeks, especially if he can back up his performance on the weekend. I think teams are going to take notice and we might see some tags, um But it's impossible to predict. you know How often do we sit here and you know think back to last year with Dacos? Surely he's going to be tagged every single week. and
00:15:41
Speaker
And it just doesn't happen early on sometimes. So I don't want to try to predict that. Just a good player who put up a good performance, who's now got his price rolling. Don't overthink it. 45% of the competition.
00:15:53
Speaker
ah Now own him. I think just jump on and and we'll see where it goes. Yep, agree there. One not to overthink, at least at this stage. Sam, now I'm glad Harmi's not here. I was getting ready for the apologetic music to to come back out, but I'll save that for a later date.
00:16:11
Speaker
My boy, James Sicily, we got a glimpse of what it was going to be like in that first half. um But then the tag came and what did they do to get rid of the tag? They chucked him forward, which is always going to be the big red flag on James Cicely.
00:16:24
Speaker
It's going to be a nervous look at team sheets each week and if they're planning on having Sam Frost or or another tool is that the sub, then there's always going to be a risk that he gets thrown forward. So does that just rule James Cicely out for you at this stage?
00:16:38
Speaker
Yeah, I think you've absolutely hit the nail on the head there, Holmesy. He had 56 points at halftime and was looking great. And then he spent a bit of time forward and ended up finishing on 81. And that was even with kicking a goal. So, yeah, we I think we talked about it on the podcast. It was going to be a high risk, high reward play.
00:16:56
Speaker
And now that risk has just inched up a little bit further and it's um it's ruled him out for mine.
00:17:03
Speaker
Yeah, rest in peace, sick dog. It was fun for content while it lasted for two weeks. But yeah, maybe later on if... We're going to get sucked in in the season and then he's going to get swung forward again. And yeah, there'll be plenty of content with James Cicely this season.
00:17:21
Speaker
Well, mean, let's be honest though. he's ah He's a target at some stage because if either Battle or Barass goes down or Frost finds himself out of the side, he could be an absolute smash play when coaches are too scared to get on him. So make necessary adjustments. Or just Deere and Dunstan being in that side. You know, a couple of key forwards. They just didn't have any on the weekend outside of Choles. So um it was obvious he was going to be swung forward.
00:17:45
Speaker
ah Watch the team sheets this week. If it's the same, then you'd have to think there might be a similar thing that occurs. I know at some stage I'm going to trade him in and I'm going to get the I told you so from Harmy and it's going to be all time, but we're we're ready. That's what it's all about. We're we're making it through past the bye this year, Lou, so we're we're continuing on.
Defensive Picks and Role Speculation
00:18:04
Speaker
Sam, I'll stick with his ah defensive counterpart, not from the same side, but Matt Roberts, 104, probably a little bit concerning that he only had the one kick in. um We thought maybe he'd get a bit more than that, but it seemed like he was one of the players that was benefiting from the kick out in terms of being hit up for that short pass.
00:18:22
Speaker
95% time on ground, so points per minute, not huge, but do we just lock Matt Roberts in now knowing that these are we we're struggling for options in the back line? Yeah, I think so. um He started a little bit slow, but then, um as you pointed out, someone put the the stat up on Twitter.
00:18:41
Speaker
I think he received the kick in from Blakey around three to five times. So, you know, there's some easy points there for him as well. He's a lock in my team. Lou, this one's an interesting interesting one to think about because if we're forecasting Sick Dog to play a little bit more forward this year, in theory, that makes Carl Amon a little bit more enticing being that main distributor of halfback. Now, he scored well.
00:19:06
Speaker
Is this something that we can see continuing throughout the season or do you think because of the Sick Dog situation that he could be up and down as well? What do you think with Amon? Yeah, I just want to monitor it. I think we saw last year when we're looking at some of these Hawthorne ball users that they do spread the load a little bit and they've got plenty that they can um sort of share it around with. So I think um I would just be trading into a Carl Amon. It'd be a ballsy coach to to start him, especially ah with the buy, even though he's got it rolling nicely.
00:19:38
Speaker
Now, Lou, I'll stick with you because you said you weren't keen on this idea, but Lloyd Meek is turning a little bit of heads. 110 looked good. Grundy, I think, a little bit underdone with that knee injury um and and starting a bit slow this year, but he he was unreal.
00:19:54
Speaker
I mean, you're banking on a little bit of natural progression as he's he's playing the same role as last year, but... For some coaches out there, could it be a play to start a kian ah sorry a Lloyd Meek knowing that you can get him to round four on his bye and then trade down to a Kieran Briggs?
00:20:08
Speaker
Do you like that idea or or not? Potentially, but look I ah like the idea in theory if it works, but I think you're you're relying on a lot of things to go right there. And if the dominoes don't fall your way, um then you might sit yourself up a bit. And ah we know that Ruck is the thinnest line that we've got. I just don't want to mess around there. you'd You'd hate to catch yourself, you know God forbid with a donut, but um having to waste a couple of trades early then when we should be in upgrade season. So if you're bullish on Meek,
00:20:38
Speaker
And, you know, maybe you like that player. I'm okay with it. I know some coaches like him, but I think I'd be a little bit more traditional and just pay a bit more there and not mess around. Yeah, and I suppose the the one thing is that you're really hoping that he has a big month to start.
00:20:54
Speaker
He's got some very good matchups. He's got Carlton and GWS in there, and and Briggs might be underdone slash not back yet. Carlton, more than likely, just a ah TDK. But he's got Essendon this week, and Essendon's the toughest ruck matchup in the game. Yeah.
00:21:09
Speaker
If he comes out and has 60-odd against um Draper and Bryan, then that cash gen's essentially done for that part unless he has a couple of monsters, which he which he can. So that's that's a bit of a flag to put on there. But, mate, if you were hot on Meek, that game really just solidified. And i'm I'm not against you starting him despite the buy, but maybe only if there's some R3 cover.
00:21:33
Speaker
Sam, from that game, let's go over the misses now. So... Angus Sheldrick, a lot of us were kind of hoping that we might be able to get him at M7 or maybe even M8 as an underpriced rookie option, as in ah an elevated rookie, but underpriced compared to some of the other mid-pricers.
00:21:49
Speaker
Mate, subbed out, injured. Even before that, he wasn't scoring and looked a bit off the pace. He's gone now, right? You can't do it even if he's named this week? Yeah, I think you can't start with him. Yeah.
00:22:02
Speaker
So Taylor Adams went down with an injury, which means he might still get picked again. um and But I think that means you can look at it with the 32 in the bank, and if he suddenly pops a good score, then you can hop on.
00:22:17
Speaker
Yep, agree with that. Definitely someone that we can trade into if we see some scores and the cash is moving in the right direction again. Lou, I'm going to just go over some notes here of some other notable things. so ah we saw Warple go down, which meant that Cam McKenzie saw a little bit of a bump in that game.
00:22:36
Speaker
he's not someone and He's not an option in Classic. You've got the main CBA guys for Hawthorne. I think he'll get a bump, but the scoring won't be there to be a Classic option for us. James Jordan's a little bit of an interesting one because, once again, he's not classic relevant, but thrown into the CBAs, it was after Sheldrick got subbed out, but it actually did coincide with them wanting to shut Will Day down a bit as well. So, you know, maybe Sydney are going to throw their midfield mix out a little bit this year if someone gets off the chain and they they want to tag. So that's something interesting to note. But...
00:23:08
Speaker
Chad Warner didn't score overly well for a midfield premium, but forward status watch, 46% forward. um You're thinking Mills is going to come back into that side. So even with no Mills, he still spent a lot of time forward.
00:23:23
Speaker
Is there a little bit of interest there not to start, but putting on your watch list, knowing that at some point potentially he might get DPP in ah a forward line that's still quite thin in terms of top end guys? Yeah, absolutely. He's an absolute star. And um i think I think he's got room in him to actually improve from where his average is. So he's a 93 guy, which probably doesn't make him a top six guy, but I think he can push numbers maybe looking at 98 plus this year on the way he looked on the weekend. So um if he's doing that, probably makes him a top six forward and then he'll be a target for us.
00:23:58
Speaker
Yep. Yep. Agree with that. Just the watch list. But like Chad Warner, especially as a player, Let's go into the other game now. And this probably the more relevant out of the the two games and definitely some talking points to come out of this. So Collingwood versus Giants.
00:24:13
Speaker
Let's start with the Giants players because we've thrown up an interesting discussion point about starting these players knowing that they now have a score baked into their price loose. So let's start with the first one. Lockie Ash, 125 points priced in the mid 70s knowing that he's already going to have that cash rise.
00:24:31
Speaker
He's not a name that's necessarily come out of the blue. he wasn't a He wasn't really a starting option for us in the preseason because of the bye, but we all know the talent Lockie Ash has. Number four draft pick. He's always shown a ceiling. He's had multiple of these 140 games across his career.
00:24:48
Speaker
I'm a bit worried about it because of his scoring breakdown, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on Lockie Ash. I love Lockie Ash as a player, and I think he's going to be of very high fantasy relevance for us, if not this year, um certainly across the next couple of years as sort of Lockie Whitfield goes off to pasture. But um he's an interesting option, I reckon. We're really struggling for defensive options this year, and he's got that baked-in break even now. He's going to gain some cash.
00:25:19
Speaker
What do you think about potentially selecting a Lockie Ash as a bit of ah a safe ground in defence with the intention to sort of jump off after having seen the lay of the land from some of these defenders that maybe we don't have as much confidence in um as we've spoken about in like a Sicily and a Stewart? Is that potentially a play?
00:25:41
Speaker
Look, I think that it is. i mean, there is a narrative from this game though. So first half, he barely scored. He had, I think it was 47 and 49 points or close to it in the the second half. And the narrative is that in that second half, Whitfield started cramping at some point in the the third or fourth quarter and and then actually spent a bit of time forward.
00:26:04
Speaker
And Collingwood in that third quarter, they were actually peppering that peppering the goals. And the Giants were just happy to just sort of chip around and and play a bit of um management, which meant there was a lot of tackles and and plus sixes to be had in that D50 as they were defending by holding onto the ball. So I don't think they're going to have that each and every week. And if you've got someone having a 30-point first half and then a 100-point second half or close enough to it, then You know, would anyone be surprised if Lockie Ash comes back out next week and has a 60 or 70?
00:26:35
Speaker
Probably not. And then the cash rises a little bit, but then his scoring is essentially done. Sam, how do you see it? Yeah, I did get interested. um So I had a quick look at his run, actually, um and it's not the greatest run for defenders. I think if you looked at it, you would think, wow, he's absolutely on here with teams like Melbourne West Coast.
00:26:58
Speaker
um in his mixture, but they're actually kind of red match-ups for defenders. um But then he's also got St Kilda and the Dogs in there, so I wouldn't talk anyone out of it.
00:27:09
Speaker
um hey Last year um he averaged 79 when you take out his vest game, so that feels like his baseline to start with. um But he actually had pretty low time on ground across the year and he had 85% time on ground on the weekend.
00:27:24
Speaker
The other thing is, and I loved it, So much observable thirst. In that fourth quarter, when everyone was cramping and could barely walk, he busted his gut for a plus six with about one minute on the clock. So if there's one thing we love seeing from our fantasy players, it's that sort of thirst.
00:27:43
Speaker
um I'm definitely looking looking at him. I haven't ruled him out either way yet. Yep, interesting thoughts. I'm not sure I'm going to go there with that that early buy, but I can see why ah coaches are doing it. And that's the definition of opening round is getting a look and he did look good. So definitely one to consider.
00:28:02
Speaker
Lou, let's stick with his teammate now. Sam Taylor. Now, going to lie. You gave me a message late yesterday. Sam Taylor's in my side. you were You were talking him up, but you seem to have cooled since. So why don't you talk the listeners through your thought process and and how we've kind of got to where we are now?
00:28:21
Speaker
Yeah, so obviously we saw Sam Taylor get the 118, which means that he's going to be making um a lot of money for us over the next week if we select him pretty much regardless of
Short-term Gains vs. Trade Constraints
00:28:34
Speaker
what he scores. I thought i think he can probably go a 40, in which case we're still going to be making quite a bit of – cash the problem is we don't actually know how much yet we're going to be getting some stats on twitter i think in the next day or two just to get some clarity over what that looks like but basically i started experimenting with how can i get a free hit on a sam taylor's cash generation and immediately pivot off so
00:29:01
Speaker
We talk about wanting to be flexible and having as many options as what we possibly can. And look, in an ideal world, that's great. But I was just thinking if I can pull that off and go a Sam Taylor, make 100K and drop down into the best rookie, best mid-pricer,
00:29:18
Speaker
It doesn't really matter. He's not going to be a large part of your scoring profile, um especially in a best 18 system. So is it worth the risk, Holmesy, Sam?
00:29:29
Speaker
and We saw it last year with Buderick. It wasn't worth the risk, but I don't know. have Have your thoughts changed? We've had a year to stew on it. um Have we learned from mistakes? Is there a better way to do this?
00:29:41
Speaker
Look, in in theory, i like it because... In my side, for example, I'm i'm still unsure about Frazier and SDK. And I'd love an extra week to see them in an AFL game, to see their role, to see their scoring abilities when the foot is hot.
00:29:58
Speaker
and then have the ability ability to pivot down off of Sam Taylor knowing that I've got his cash gen. However, you you pointed out pre-pod that I think the numbers that we're all projecting off DFS may be out a little bit.
00:30:10
Speaker
And if he's only going to go up 80 to one hundred k yes, that's good cash gen, but is that going to be enough to justify that trade? I'm not too sure. So if we had more clarity about what his projected price rise is going to be, and it is up around that sort of 120 to 150K mark,
00:30:27
Speaker
Maybe I'll look at it because that's going to get him sort of around or above Frazier and then I've got the ability to trade down. However, if if it's not and and you're just going to get a 40 and then, you know, he only makes 80 to 100K, then you are, then yeah, yeah i don't think it's worth it because trades are still valuable, Sam. So where do you sit after we've spoken about it?
00:30:46
Speaker
Yeah, I'm still a little on the fence, but what I really don't like is the the prospect of having to make that forced trade um at the start of round two. You know, there might be one of our premiums might pick up an injury. We might need to make two rookie pivots all of a sudden. um And if you can't do that because you've got a Sam Taylor sitting there, then, you know, you'll kick yourself.
00:31:08
Speaker
um So I'm still thinking about it a little bit, but I'm probably leaning towards not starting.
00:31:15
Speaker
Yep, yep, and that's going to be some decisions that we need to make in the next three days leading up to lockout, Lou. Finn Callaghan, someone we projected this year as a bit of ah a breakout, looked unreal on the weekend, scored 110, two goals, 30-odd touches, was the clear sort of M1 slash M2 alongside Josh Kelly, who ah also scored pretty well.
00:31:37
Speaker
I suppose it's now a conversation of Callaghan versus Will Day versus Chera. We can't start them all. Is it concerning starting him knowing that Tom Green's just on the horizon and we know Tom Green's a 100 to 110 averaging player?
00:31:52
Speaker
They can't all go above 100, right? So Finn Callaghan, are you more or less interested after the weekend and where do you sit? No, I'm still just as interested. I think he's an absolute star, and I think this is the year he breaks out. So I can see him being second fiddle behind Tom Green, ahead of Josh Kelly and Stephen Canelio, who we barely even saw on the weekend. So if he can pop...
00:32:14
Speaker
To be honest with you, if you're going to line up Will Day, Adam Cher and Finn Callaghan and ask me who's going to average 100 this season, Finn Callaghan's probably at the top of my list. So it's unfortunate that he's got that by.
00:32:26
Speaker
um But if you're interested in him and you can manage it in your midfield, I'd go ahead and select him because there's a few guys in that price range we really like. Throw Clayton Oliver,
00:32:37
Speaker
In there, Dylan, Shiel, even ah a Will Ashcroft for a little bit of extra change. So all good picks. It's just about how you balance all of them. ah don't think um I don't think there's any poor ones there.
00:32:49
Speaker
Yep, agree with that. The last hit we have is Harry Perryman. So scored 90, looked unreal, was I think third in line for their CBAs, but that included um him being sent into defence in the last quarter and and spending a lot of time on the
Strategic Waiting and Tagging Effects
00:33:04
Speaker
bench. I think he only had 66% time on ground.
00:33:07
Speaker
In that last quarter, McRae came out and said that that was for structural reasons and they really liked what he did in the midfield. um So I think that's one we don't overthink and we just lock that away despite his early buy and the issues we have in defence.
00:33:21
Speaker
Let's talk some misses now. And I mean, this one's a little bit harsh. Connor Stone, 50. You know, he's definitely not an on-field option, but he did look good in defence. It's going to be hard with Whitfield and Ash and these guys that are the the main distributors. But A 50 sitting at F8, I think we probably have to lock that in at the moment knowing that he's got probably some of the better job security out of some of these cheaper rookies. I mean, I know they've got the suspended players to to come back, um so that's a big watch there. But I think at the moment I'm happy to lock Connor Stone in at F8 as long as he comes nowhere near my my field unless it's best 18.
00:34:00
Speaker
Nick Dacos, Sam, kind of has Errol Goulden vibes of last year where a lot of coaches were looking to start Errol Goulden and he had a bit of a shocker in round zero which made his ownership plummet.
00:34:12
Speaker
Scored 60. Coaches are going to jump off now knowing that we're all going to be able to target him at a later date with a ah much cheaper price tag. He wasn't going that well before the injury. He was kind of getting clamped by Bedford.
00:34:24
Speaker
So is he now someone that we look to grab around round four, five, six when he's bottomed out? Yeah, that's definitely the approach I'll be trying to take. um I mean, look, Nick nick Dacos could ah come out next round and score 140 and make us all look silly, but um we can only, you know, play with the hand that we've been dealt with and, you know, 60 round zero now priced into his break even. Yeah, I'm definitely looking at him post-buy.
00:34:53
Speaker
Some of the cheaper guys from Collingwood, Lou. ah Hang on, Holmes. I just wanted to expand just on that Dacos score just because he was tagged by Bedford. um That's going to have some ramifications. ah Melbourne round one, are we putting a line through Petrarca potentially? Do we have a worry about ah c Clayton Oliver?
00:35:15
Speaker
um Do we now need to to look at the GWS fixture and and maybe avoid um some of these premiums when they're coming up? Look, I don't think you do for Petrarca and Oliver. i think you're you're picking them both as underpriced premiums and someone you can hold long-term through until the buy. And I think if Bedford tags Petrarca, then Petrarca is going to go forward.
00:35:37
Speaker
um Yes, that might... hinder his score for round one that's something you're going to have to weigh into but you're always if you're picking Petrarca you're picking him knowing that um he can go forward at any time so that's that's all already there anyway and and Clayton Oliver yeah he might get the Bedford tag he might get off to a bit of a slow start but you know we're all doing it I don't think fading him just for that round one game is going to be the the go because he he's looking good and it's just one game Lou but do do you have a different take on that?
00:36:07
Speaker
No, no, I think that's probably the reason we'll take. um Interesting that he's got Will Day potentially in round three too. So um I think that falls under the same umbrella though.
00:36:20
Speaker
Okay, back to Collingwood. So Ed Allen and McInnes probably didn't do enough to justify their inflated price tags and and Collingwood, to be honest, were pretty average as well. So it wouldn't surprise me if if they come out and and they have another not so good game against Port Adelaide that the magnets get shifted around again and and they could find themselves subbed or out of the side. So i wouldn't be paying up for either of those players.
00:36:44
Speaker
James Leak, Sam, so scored 42. Off limited time on ground. So I think it was 53% time on ground. So points per minute were there, but that just shows where he's at in the pecking order of that side, whether it's fitness or whether it's just a ah coach not really having that much faith in in one of his young players. Tom Green on the horizon and all those suspended players to come back.
00:37:07
Speaker
Leak, is he someone that you're still considering for your defensive bench or are you trying to put a line through him now? Yeah, line ball call for me. So lot of half forward time. Still had seven centre bounces in his, yeah, 50-odd percent time on ground.
00:37:24
Speaker
I think just because we are lacking other defensive rookie options, he's probably still there for me. But, geez, he could be first out the door when Tom Green comes back into the side. So a little bit of a worry, um one that I'm still thinking about.
00:37:41
Speaker
Yeah, like Jake Stringer as well. he He obviously spent time at half forward, so Jake Stringer is meant to be fit, I think, round three. So, yeah, I think the time's limited there.
00:37:53
Speaker
Man, how scary is what GWS did to Collingwood knowing that there was no Jesse Hogan, no Jake Stringer, a few other players that, you know, suspended players that play roles. I think Jake Riccardi is another. Like GWS, if there was any doubt about what they're going to do this year, I think they're going to be hungrier than ever and,
00:38:10
Speaker
I think picking some players from this team is going to be very good for our fantasy sides. So, yeah, definite watches after their buy-in round two. Lou, I'm just going to throw to you because we missed one player from the Sydney game and it kind of ties into our round zero theme of of picking players that we've now seen
Debutantes and Role Risks
00:38:27
Speaker
a score from. Sam Wicks, forward, playing as a defender, last quarter.
00:38:33
Speaker
scored the seventy two but did have a ah thirty eight point last quarter Is he someone that's interesting you around that price point? You know, we're looking at a Garcia and you can throw in a Nevit and, you know, Nathan O'Driscoll into the mix as we've got a lot of flexibility.
00:38:48
Speaker
Sam Wicks made his way into your side. No, he hasn't. And that's just because he played a bit of a lockdown role on Nick Watson. So I'm expecting a really good role there as well. He totally shut Nick Watson out of the game. I'm expecting that to continue for those types of players.
00:39:05
Speaker
Has Brisbane Lions round one, so Charlie Cameron will be there. How much time does he have to find that free ball? um And then round two, you've got Shia Bolton at the Dockers, Walters,
00:39:16
Speaker
ah They've got a couple of handy little forwards at the Dockers there. So I think he's going to be too accountable to be an option. A little bit like, um not unlike a Sam Taylor, really. I'm just going to, I like both options. I'm just going to steer clear.
00:39:32
Speaker
Yeah, and I think, I mean, I was listening to Mitch from the Ball Boys on, I think it was the Fanatics podcast the other day, and and he sort of mentioned, you know, these players, you know, yes, Wicks is playing a new role, but he's playing ah a lockdown role. And we do know they have spike games every now and again, but just because they've done that in round zero doesn't mean that that's going to be their average for the next three, four or five games when we really need the cash rises. It might just been a ah coincidence that it happened in that roundhouse.
00:39:56
Speaker
that first game and they can go back to the Norman and have a 20 or 30 in the next game, which would be on field at that price point and and would really burn you from a a points perspective. So he is someone that I've toyed with and and at time of recording is in my side. But I think over the next couple of days when I think it over a little bit more, um he's going to be the type of player that probably falls out for me with some of the other options we have.
00:40:19
Speaker
Lou, can you just talk to our listeners about some of the the debutantes that have been named and if any of them are going to be serious considerations for your side? Yeah, so, so far, I've seen Harry Armstrong, Sam Lawler, Luke Treanor, and Lucas Camporriali.
00:40:34
Speaker
ah Harry Armstrong, he's a big key forward, young, raw, developing, scratch him off your list. Sam Lawler is an interesting one. He was probably penciled into a lot of coaches' sides before he broke his jaw a couple of weeks ago. um He's gotten back fit just in time,
00:40:53
Speaker
ah Do we count this as an interrupted preseason? As they say, I don't run on me face, but um I reckon i would just steer a little bit clear from Sam Rawler. Just to start, I think I'd prefer to trade in and see what um that scoring looks for looks like. But in terms of job security, um lock and load, he's not going to get dropped. He'll get every opportunity.
00:41:16
Speaker
Luke Trainor, don't know much about him. He's a bit of a third-tall key defender, two hundred and eighty k defender. um Look, honestly, guys, at this point, who cares? He's a rookie defender. Just get in my side because we don't have a lot to choose from here.
00:41:31
Speaker
And the final one, which has the most relevance, who is currently in my side as well, is Lucas Camporeale. ah He is a bit of a bolter. He came from nowhere in the preseason game and and looked fantastic on that wing.
00:41:46
Speaker
And it looks like he might even be keeping Sam Doherty out of a spot there. So obviously with that comes a flag that he could be a sub option. But um coming up against the Tigers Thursday night, obviously a famous Carlton name.
00:42:01
Speaker
I could see him popping a 60, 70, 80 on that wing there. And um if that's the case, his cash is really going to start rolling and he's going to be um maybe one of the most must-have rookies that we've got to start if that sort of comes to fruition. So that's why I really like him.
00:42:17
Speaker
Yeah, I suppose he's going to be ah ah a bit of a talking point. There's word that maybe a Sam Doherty is potentially going to be the sub, which is interesting. And if Camparelli's on the wing and Doherty's a sub who's a winger, then maybe he's not a green vest, but he's a red vest, which would be a little bit bit concerning, Sam.
00:42:36
Speaker
If Camparelli gets named on Thursday, does it make him more enticing knowing that we'll know that he's not the sub, if he's not the sub, but some of the other options like our St. Kilda rookies, our Melbourne rookies, and even a couple of others played late on Sunday.
00:42:51
Speaker
And it's a bit of like, a you know where do we go if these players don't get named or that they're the sub? Does that mean that if Camparelli is named, you're more likely to just launch into him? Yeah, I think so, and I think um him being 230 helps a lot um because the others around that price we haven't really got heaps of clarity on yet. The one that I think of most obviously is is a guy like Max Hall.
00:43:14
Speaker
um So, yeah I mean, ah I've got him in my team at the moment, and I think for for a lack of better options, um he'll be there. He seemed to come straight just, I mean, Jagger obviously went down and he seemed to come straight in for Jagger.
00:43:31
Speaker
um And there is obviously the risk that Sam Docherty could replace him or, you know, obviously, or even start and have Camparelli sub. But, ah yeah, but Carlton, high-scoring team, as we know, or at least, you know, in the in the top half of the scorers, um I like it for now.
00:43:51
Speaker
And Sam, I'll stick with you just to to back over the the Sam Layla point. Yes, he he had the fractured face. um He did have the concussion though and we know that with the concussion protocol, they actually have to get cleared before they can run. So he would have been off his feet for you know maybe up to a week, who knows. but He's goingnna have the best job security out of most of the rookies.
00:44:12
Speaker
There's talk that he's going to have that mid-forward split, which means potential forward status on the horizon. does that Is there any chance you pick a a Sam Layla or is like Lou said, you're you're happy to just see one game against Carlton. It'll be a tough matchup.
00:44:25
Speaker
And if he scores a 60-odd in a tough matchup, then you know that potentially then you'll launch into him knowing it's a little bit more elevated. Yes, I was interested to hear that Louie said, you know, I'd prefer to trade into him. um Me personally, I mean, I've got him because, you know, if you've got to pick four midfield rookies at the moment plus a utility, um I'm looking at Fino Sullivan, Levi Ashcroft, Harvey Langford, assuming he's picked, and then I can't really find a good fourth rookie that I like.
00:44:57
Speaker
You know, we just talked about Camporeale, but for me that's more of a ah slow bird. I know Lawler's going to get picked every week. You know, all he has to do is pop two good scores in a row and then he's going to start generating some cash. So I guess I might throw back to you, Holmesy.
00:45:15
Speaker
Is there a fourth midfield rookie that you like more than Lawler at the moment? ah No, not really. I mean, you've got Boxall that you can throw in there, but I think Boxall has sub written over him as well.
00:45:28
Speaker
You've got Angus Hastie, I think, who is a midfield rookie but is playing, I think, in defence. So there are options. But like I said earlier, I do worry about having these rookies that are going to be named on Sunday and then you know where's the pivot option if they don't get named in the side if they're the sub, which makes it makes it tricky or If you do go a Bokshul and he plays and he scores a 40 and then gets subbed, yes, he's 230K, but that also means that you're going to have to trade up to get to a rookie rather than a a Lawler. If he flops or doesn't go that well, at least you've got the cash to go down and do something on the other end. So that's where the appeal of a Lawler is. i just
00:46:06
Speaker
I'm trying not to pick these rookies this year that I haven't seen or I don't have confidence in. And unfortunately, he falls in that boat at the moment. And the only way to get some confidence on him is to see him in round one.
00:46:17
Speaker
Lee? Yeah, for those four rookies up there, I've probably got, um obviously, Levi Ashcroft, Fino Sullivan, Harvey Langford, and then ah think Lucas Camporeale is stuck in there now.
00:46:30
Speaker
um ah i am a fan of Sam Lawler. I just ah know the job security is going to be there, and um in some respects, I'm sure the scoring will be too. It's just that... That's where the least amount of clarity for me actually is because I haven't seen him play any footy. I just i can just go off of where he's sort of been drafted. So for that reason, that's why um potentially he'll be one I really want to watch closely in round one, along with some of these other sub 300k players to jump onto the right one immediately. And that's the sort of play I want to go for. So I'm not going to be missing out on him.
00:47:04
Speaker
Yeah, and hopefully over the next couple of days, we get a few more debutant announcements. As always, check team sheets. We know that they're not always 100% accurate, but generally if ah if a player's named on field in the starting 18, it's very rare that they name the sub. It does happen from Geelong from time to time. But ah yeah, just watch team sheets on Thursday to make sure ah your decisions are are made as best you can.
00:47:29
Speaker
Lads, we're going to finish up with some questions. So we've got a lot of questions this week, but we we didn't put a lot of them in because we hope to answer them ah throughout the podcast. So if you don't hear your question, ah that's because we believe we answered it earlier. But as always, just letting you know, so PodPod AFL has partnered with Q Platforms in 2025 We are getting to the crunch time of the season. So to help the Pod Pod out and for us to help you out for a small fee, you have the ability to have a personalized audio response to all of your fantasy questions. So whether that's a full team review, whether that's questions on players, individual options, it's all there.
00:48:06
Speaker
um Make sure you head over to askmeonq.com slash podpodafl. The link is in the show description below. um That'll really help us out, but also help you guys out with your questions because it is getting to the most important time of the fantasy season, making sure that your starting squad is the best that it can possibly be.
00:48:24
Speaker
Lou, but I'll start with you, McKay, Bay, Beers. Out of those rookies, or the ones, not only the ones that have been named, but some of the ones we think we're getting, Which of them do you think have the best shot at starting and avoiding the vest? So what are the rookies that we're most confident in, will have good job security and are going to avoid the vest?
00:48:45
Speaker
Oh, this is a bit of guesswork, but I ah don't think we'll see it from Finno Sullivan just based on what we've seen from other North rookies over the years. um You'd be hard-pressed to see Zach Reid being handed a sub vest.
00:48:57
Speaker
um ah Sam Davidson would probably be a bit unlucky, maybe Connor Stone. But then, you know, you can start to build some narratives there that, you know, potentially a Levi Ashcroft can't break into that side.
00:49:10
Speaker
um Maybe um Harvey Langford can't quite find it you know, Lucas Camparialli, Doherty in the two. So there's not too many that I'd be banking on that are necessarily ah an absolute lock to not be handed that sub-best week in, week out.
00:49:26
Speaker
Yeah, i'd I would agree with that one. Sam, this one's from Lockie. Quickfire, does he go a Brayshaw plus a Peatling, so an Uber Primo and a mid-pricer, or does he go a Track and a Chera, which is more of a two underpriced premiums? What do you think there?
00:49:43
Speaker
I was really hoping you would give this question to Lou because I think it is a hard one. If you could go either way, Brayshaw Peatling for me.
00:49:53
Speaker
Lou, I'll throw to you then. um Yeah, I'd probably just take the keeper and the mid-pricer as opposed to to a few more question marks with the other one, but flip a coin, both good options.
00:50:07
Speaker
Yeah, I suppose I think I'm option one as well, given that Peatling really does have the upside that we project that he that he potentially does. And that that can lead us into our next question from James, Lou. So, are there too many mouths to feed in the Adelaide midfield for any of them to be worthwhile starting selection? So, Peatling and Dawson are where he wants to focus on. So, if they are spreading the midfield...
00:50:30
Speaker
Can Dawson go from a 105 to a 110 plus to be a worthwhile pick and and James Peatling go from 61 85-90?
00:50:39
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's it's a tough one. I think the simple answer for me is that they they are an expansive midfield and they do have a lot of talent in there and they all are going to run through there. So it's not what we want to hear. um um I've got a bit of nervousness about how that Crow's midfield shapes up. I think that um Dawson's obviously a star and I think Peekling's got...
00:51:01
Speaker
Upside, whether or not that's consistent week to week, I'm not sure. I could see um sometimes them running with a tighter rotation of four and then other times expanding out and that's where you might see a bit of deviation in their scoring. But um I reckon Sam would be a good one to bounce this off.
00:51:19
Speaker
Yes, I actually still like Peatling, Rankin and Dawson all as picks. They're guys I've been looking at. I think we've discussed ad nauseum Peatling's ability to score. Rankin looks like he's going to get a great share of the CBAs and Jordan Dawson's Jordan Dawson. I think those three guys are still still represent some upside.
00:51:40
Speaker
So, yeah, if you like them, go for them. I suppose it's worth noting you've got that 100 points from Laird that's not there anymore too, don't you? So, yeah, they're up there.
00:51:51
Speaker
Good luck predicting it.
00:51:54
Speaker
so I'll go to you, Sam, for this one because he's your boy. This one's from Sean. He's got an unusual question and I can see why he's thinking about it. Can you put Chera on your bench as the emergency and put a non-playing player on field just in case there's a slim chance that he gets a soft tissue injury early in the first game?
00:52:15
Speaker
God, I hope not, Sean, because I'm picking him in classic and I've got him in draft. So um I think the answer here is no because then you're looking at a 29 red dots, all just because of a potential injury.
00:52:29
Speaker
the The truth is every player is at risk of injury. You're picking Chera based on his price and his injury history being factored in. um wouldn't recommend it. Yeah, if you're someone that's worried enough to put him on the bench, I think that says enough that you just don't pick him and you go with someone else around that price point, you know, Callaghan, Day that we've we've spoken about. So, yeah, I wouldn't be doing it. I'm trying to get the 30 green dots unless you can find a red dot Ruck midfielder. Yeah.
00:53:00
Speaker
day pay pay rock midfielder to be able to do it, but I'm not sure any of those exist. So, yeah, I wouldn't be. Jackson would be the only Ruck midfielder. Oh, Mark Blitzarves maybe.
00:53:13
Speaker
There you go Maybe handcuffed with the Mark Blitzarves, but yeah, no. I wouldn't be doing it personally. Louis, this one's from Russ2468. Please find me some defender rookies. So, let's let's go through the defender rookies that we have currently. So, we've got...
00:53:28
Speaker
We'll count Jackson Pryor as a rookie, albeit slightly elevated. We've got Zach Reid, James Leak, Luke Treanor, and we still have, yeah, those four, I think, if there's another one I'm missing. We might get that O'Connell from Saints. I'm not sure where that stands, but the job security is not going to be...
00:53:50
Speaker
Amazing there. Are we missing any? We'll probably get Sardell Hawley in the first couple of weeks. He put up a really good VFL performance or match-in performance the other day. but's It's looking thin. It's looking thin. I think that's probably the only options we've got.
00:54:08
Speaker
Let's ignore El Hawley for now, Lou. Okay, so rank rank the rookies that we have now and let's try and take into account price, scoring and and job security. So Pryor, Reid, Leek and Trainer, one to four.
00:54:25
Speaker
um Okay, I reckon I would have... I'm quite high on Pryor, so I'm going to put Pryor at the top. I think the job security is there, and I think that he's got the potential to pop a score. Just being a mature age player, you are paying a little bit more, but there's not many other options.
00:54:43
Speaker
I'm going to put Reid in second just because of that job security has kick-ins. I think he's going to tick over okay at D10 there. um I've got him just ahead of Trainer. I think Trainer is going to be a better scorer. I just don't know much about him at this point.
00:55:02
Speaker
Leak, I'm probably going to steer clear from. I don't see any job security there and I didn't particularly see um any scoring there either. And then O'Connell, um if things get seriously desperate, otherwise, um probably not.
00:55:19
Speaker
Agree with that list there. Lou, Sam, I'm going to throw to you. This one's from Rankelion. And this is another rank. But I'm going to split these. We've got six players here. But I'm going to split them in half because there's different price points. So the first two players I want you to talk about and rank, Nevit and Garcia.
00:55:38
Speaker
ah Yeah, tough one, um but I think I've got Garcia ahead of Nevitt only because ah ah think there's less question marks about the Saints midfield composition than there is about the Geelong one.
00:55:51
Speaker
And Garcia is obviously playing in our forward line, whereas Nevitt is playing in our midline. So I've got Garcia ahead of Nevitt.
00:56:00
Speaker
Yep, don't mind that there. I think Garcia as well for me just because he has the forward status, but I'm not going to lie. As we get closer to round one, my confidence in both of those players gets thinner by the day. And these other four players now are all at similar price points, albeit Chera a little bit higher, up but all sort of mid-priced options. So Peatling, Hollands, Chera and Sanders. Can you rank those for me?
00:56:27
Speaker
Yeah, ah controversial, but I'd probably have Sanders as my highest ranked. Again, forward status. um it Given the the Bulldogs' midfield situation, I think he's going to get a good run at it for a few weeks, maybe even you know five to six weeks there.
00:56:44
Speaker
um Then I've got Chera and Hollands. I honestly can't split them um because I think obviously Chera is going to score better, but Hollands comes in at a cheaper price, has more upside, I think that one might come down to a structure question for you if you are tossing up Cher and Hollands.
00:57:04
Speaker
And then I've got Peatling probably the fourth out of those four um for the reasons we've discussed um already.
00:57:12
Speaker
Lou, this one's from TomDT and it's ah a bit of a tricky one because there's no right answer. But Tom has asked, how many early buy players is too many? um I haven't seen too many teams with more than four or five. I think that's where the comp might be settling. There's a there a couple of popular guys in a Perryman, Roberts.
00:57:35
Speaker
um But, yeah, I don't think um any more than four. what what What do you boys think? I'm still struggling to to read this one.
00:57:47
Speaker
Look, I've kind of come back to the... And it was kind of my sentiment early in the preseason that if they are the right players, I don't mind taking a hit for one week. And this was back when we had the the round three buyers, those four teams, and we were looking at maybe having three or four players on the buyer. Now, you just got to make sure that you still have probably at least 20 playing. And that means that, yes, you might be taking a hit in that round.
00:58:13
Speaker
But as long as you've nailed those players and they are the right players to have, I think that's fine. it'ss The issue is that if you start loading up with, let's say you do start sandwis Sam Wicks, Sam Taylor, Finn Callaghan, Darcy Cameron or Lloyd Meek and then all of a sudden you add on to that Levi Ashcroft and some other popular players, Perryman, Roberts, then it's probably starting to get a little bit too much because we know not all of these players are going to fire. So,
00:58:40
Speaker
Yeah, i don't I don't have an exact answer, but I do know that you know if you say you have three or four on on one buy round and then all of a sudden you get some injuries as well and you're staring down the barrel of only having 18 players playing, then and that's probably going to be too much of a hit in that round. Lou, do you agree with that?
00:58:56
Speaker
Yep, yep, I think so, mate. Sam, I'll throw to you for this one just because I spoke to Louis a little bit about this before, but Zeusman's asked, can we fade Oliver considering it's highly likely he cops the Bedford tag and scores a sub 70?
00:59:10
Speaker
He's thinking that if that's going to be the case, then he can pivot off Oliver and go down to Callaghan or even a Chera knowing that they've got a bit of an easier run and their scoring and price might be going in a better direction than Oliver's early days. Yeah.
00:59:25
Speaker
ah No, I think is the short answer, and I think that's for a few reasons. One, the Bedford tag could go to Petrarca. Number two, you're picking Oliver for not just the first round, um but for you know the potentially the first half of the season.
00:59:41
Speaker
We all know what he's done in the past. There's up to almost 30 points upside there. And the third reason is if you do fade him, you're betting against 54% of the competition. um It feels pretty risky to me.
00:59:55
Speaker
Yep, I would agree with that. Sam, um if I'm picking Clayton Oliver, it's because I believe he's an underpriced premium. I think he can go 100 to 105 and get back semi towards his best. And yes, he might have a tag in the first game, but if he' if he's back to his best, he might be able to shake the tag a bit.
01:00:12
Speaker
um But even then, it's just one game. and And then if he does go on a tear and you don't have him, then you've got to try and get him back in. And we know trades, although we've got two trades a week, you can't get everyone in and that gets a little bit tricky.
01:00:23
Speaker
Lou, this one's from Damien Richards. Frazier versus SDK or start both? ah I'm Frazier just because you can drop down to SDK after round one if need be. So, yeah, I think that's what splits hairs for me.
01:00:43
Speaker
Sam? ah Yeah, also Frazier and for the same reasons Lou said, you can pivot down to SDK if the role looks really good. Yep, and Lou, you mentioned Frazier starts with North Melbourne, which is actually a ah relatively tough matchup for defenders. But if he goes okay there, then he has Collingwood ah in the next game. And we just saw what all the defenders did against Collingwood. So there could potentially be a spike game there. So Frazier versus SDK, I'm still on the fence. I'm i'm not going to lie. um But yeah, I think it is probably one or the other. I think starting both is probably a little bit risky. All right, so that's going to wrap up the questions for this week. Unfortunately, Lou has has had to jump off, so he's no longer with us, Sam. But just quickly, there's something he wanted us to discuss. So opening round one, we know we're trying to get 30 green dots if we can. It's going to depend on what we do in the ruck line if we get a ah playing R3. But let's talk vice captains quickly.
01:01:41
Speaker
We know we're trying to get 30 green dots, but Where's the line if you get a huge vice-captain score that you might think about potentially taking that for and then playing a non-playing player on field? Or for you, it's simply if if we have 30 green dots, you're just going to back him your captaincy and the vice-captain doesn't really mean too much?
01:02:02
Speaker
Yeah, it's a good question. um I am a 30 green dots guy. So, I mean, I'm looking at Andrew Brayshaw for me on Saturday morning as and the line would be very high for me. I'm thinking 140 plus.
01:02:16
Speaker
I've also, as I mentioned earlier on the podcast, been tinkering with Max Gorn at R1 and I feel very confident with him against Lockie Keith. So I'm almost ready just to back Gorn in no matter what because I think he could go massive.
01:02:30
Speaker
ah Do you have any different thoughts on that? No, I do echo those. And and funnily enough, the Gorn matchup is something I'm looking at as well. Maybe there's a bit of groupthink. However, it's hard to know unless you're in that hot seat. Like, you know, you don't tell me that there's a, you know, Brayshaw goes 135 or a Dawson for me goes 130 plus and and you've got that banked in.
01:02:51
Speaker
it's It's hard to hard to stick fat because, you know, are you going to feel if Gorn comes out and has an 80 or a 90 and then you've you've had that score there. So, yeah, it's it's interesting. You're not someone that's looking to maybe lock in that vice-captaincy score early on the on the Thursday in the Carlton game against Richmond or or maybe even that Friday night game.
01:03:11
Speaker
I guess the only thing is if ah if I think about rookies, um the only one that I have confidence in being selected that's not playing this week is probably Smiley. um And he's obviously playing in the first game of the round, so he's not going to be a red dot I can use. But if you can think of a rookie that might play come round two, round three, and is a red dot this week, then I think it's a move you can do. And you're right, 135, geez,
01:03:40
Speaker
I'd be tempted, but it's also a long season, Carl, and I like the idea of 30 greens to start with. Yeah, let's just one thing that's just come to mind before we wrap up with our final question.
01:03:52
Speaker
If Boyd's not named at R3, the other option that's sort of been floated around isn't is an archer read from the Eagles. I think we've gone past the readie from Fremantle conversation. But if Boyd's not there, are you more likely to start Harry Boyd knowing that he's going to be a red dot for you early and he's always a chance to come in if St Kilda tinker with their structure or Marshall gets injured?
01:04:14
Speaker
Or are you going to start an archer read?
01:04:18
Speaker
Yeah, I actually probably lean towards Archer Reid there, only because I think Boyd's going to see potentially the most use at the start of the season, while we know Marshall's a bit rough.
01:04:29
Speaker
And the great thing about having the non-playing Eagles player is they have so many Sunday games, and so you can't use them as a loop um probably later in the season once we're past the buy rounds.
01:04:40
Speaker
So yeah, I'd probably lean towards an Archer Reid set up there. I suppose, sorry, just with my question. So Boyd's not named, but Archer Reid is. You're still picking Archer Reid?
01:04:51
Speaker
um ah No, then i'm then I'm picking Boyd. Sorry. Yeah, I would go with Boyd there in the hope that he gets some time in the future. Yep, yep. Agree with that. last Last little bit, we're going to wrap up. We've gone a monster episode here.
01:05:08
Speaker
FOMO. So I've got my guy and I'm hoping they're not the same because I'll have to i'll have to find another one. But who's the biggest highly owned player at the moment that you're not starting, that you're nervous about not starting?
01:05:22
Speaker
ah Yeah, for me, it has to be Harry Sheasel. um i Obviously, he's fifty over 50% owned. I do see him going closer to 105 in a midfield half-forward role, um but he always has the potential at racking and just going 110, 115 plus. So very nervous about Sheasel. Who's yours?
01:05:46
Speaker
Yeah, mine's Tristan Cherry. um Look, I've got the rucks wrong the last couple of years and it terrifies me that, yeah, we're projecting a hard run for him. But what if he's the second coming of Brodie Grundy and he goes from 115 to a 120?
01:06:02
Speaker
And everyone's putting out, well, the 59.7% of the comp are getting that as their captain each week while we're tinkering around and going from Gorn to Briggs to whoever else we do each year in the ruck line. So, yeah, it's definitely definitely Tristan Cherry. I'm trying to trust the numbers, but, yeah, it's going to be a nervous non-own because we all know that he's going to be on 70 at halftime against Tim English and we're going to be wondering what the hell we've done and our season's over. But, yeah, definitely Tristan Cherry for me.
01:06:32
Speaker
Yeah, it's and it's tough when these guys are so highly owned as well. i yeah I struggle to understand people who've got both in their team um and have found the balance right across the rest of their lines because i feel like cash is at a premium, particularly with how much we're having to pay up in defence.
01:06:51
Speaker
Yep, agree with that. Sam, thank you so much again for jumping on, mate. Really happy to have you on board here at the PodPod. We're looking forward to a really big season. For everyone else, ah remember the PodPod Challenge is open again for 2025. So the lead code is HDPYPX6X.
01:07:12
Speaker
It is in the show description below. But also if you type in PodPod Challenge and search for it, you can find that. ah We've already got over 500 coaches in there, which is in an incredible community. so if we can get that up ah even more, that would be fantastic. And the winner of the Pod Pod Challenge this year, like last year, ah will receive a custom AFL Fantasy ring courtesy of the Super Coach Champion. So thank you for those guys for getting on board.
01:07:36
Speaker
Sam, quickly, can you just give one ah round one closing thought for me? Yep, absolutely. If you don't hear from me on the podcast next week, it's because I'm at 10,000 plus and I've deleted the app.
01:07:50
Speaker
ah Remember, all of the winners have started outside ten k to start the year, so that just means you're going to win the Hilux and we need to hear from you. All right, all right.
01:08:03
Speaker
One serious closing remark then. um Jason Horne Francis to absolutely blitz it out the gate and he'll be 12 brown low votes in after four games to start the year.
01:08:16
Speaker
Yeah, look, Farad, he's looking good, isn't he? Mine is, look, we've had opening round two games. Look, you need to react. Don't overreact. Back the work that you've done in the preseason. Go through, you know, i listen to our podcasts, um you know, listen to other podcasts.
01:08:31
Speaker
Back your own research. um It's going to be a stressful week. Make sure you've got your your team set up and you've got the ability to pivot if you need to if some of the rookies don't get named. But, At the end of the day, the competition is not won with your starting squad.
01:08:43
Speaker
um It's the way you trade and and correct your mistakes because we're all going to make mistakes. So, yeah, really, really looking forward to it. As always, make sure you're following us on X at PodPod AFL.
01:08:55
Speaker
I'm at HolmesiesHeroes. And Sam, why don't you give yours a plug? We haven't given you any love. yeah Sure. I'm at Grilis03. And if I manage to make myself into the top 50, keep an eye out for Mandachlorian FC.
01:09:10
Speaker
Let's see if we can get your followers up above 40. That would be a good ah good start. um Make sure you're following us at ah on Spotify. Give us a five-star rating and review. That would really help us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
01:09:26
Speaker
We will be back tomorrow night with a special emergency edition of The Holmes Files. I won't reveal that yet. We have had him on already, but he's the best fantasy mind in the business. So really looking forward to that.
01:09:38
Speaker
Guys, have a good week. ah Wednesday, look at the teams. Thursday, be prepared. We're all looking forward to it. And yeah, we'll see you then. Bye.