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The Holmes Files - Fantasy Philosophies and Mad Theories with the Fantasy Nut #PODPOD
2.9k Plays5 days ago
Holmesy continues The Holmes Files series where he sits down and interviews some of the brightest minds in the AFL Fantasy community. Up next, The Fantasy Nut who is known for his deep thinking and “crazy” thoughts in the AFL Fantasy space.
In this episode, the lads cover a huge amount of content. Everything from learning from past mistakes, Vam’s philosophies, building a starting squad, early round theories, line discussions and much much more! There is nearly an hour and a half of gold for fantasy fanatics to stick their teeth into! The AFL season is well and truly heating up with match sims just around the corner, so this episode is not one to be missed!
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Transcript
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to
Introduction and Guest Background
00:00:20
Holmesy
the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL fantasy classic for you on this Friday night, 14th of February, back for another episode of The Holmes Files and back with another bumper guest. do You know him on X as Vams or the Fantasy Nut, which is ah very fitting. I think the first interaction I had with you Vams was when you are went to battle with me on Twitter over trying to pick Wayne Miller and ruin my season back in the day.
00:00:47
Holmesy
But ah we've been mates ever since.
Reflections on Last Fantasy Season
00:00:49
Holmesy
Always love picking your brains and the way you go about it. Welcome to the show. And yeah, how you been?
00:00:54
Vams (Fantasynut)
Good, I'll tell you what. ah I'd be lying if I said no, I hadn't thought about Wayne Miller as a potential selection this year as well. um He's on the shortlist, but I'd love to come back and have a chat with you.
00:01:09
Holmesy
And that's all we have for the podcast today. So thanks everyone for tuning in.
00:01:13
Vams (Fantasynut)
Very good.
00:01:13
Holmesy
Now, mate, look, the fantasy nut, the nickname, it ah well and truly resonates with you. You have some out there ideas, but it's always backed by some pretty serious research and I love I love the way you think about the game and and really highlight things that potentially other people aren't thinking about, which is which is really good. But where ah where I thought we'd start today is both of me and you didn't really have the season that we wanted to have last year.
Avoiding Overreactions to Poor Performances
00:01:38
Holmesy
Admittedly, I started out pretty hot. I think I was ranked about 1 50th after round four. but you had ah you had a big shocker and and never really managed to to claw your way back. So we're going to talk a little bit about the mistakes you made from opening round last year and and what we can kind of learn and take away from from how you went about it.
00:01:59
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, no, I appreciate that. likes ah I was hoping to forget about last year, so it's ah it's a fantastic way to to start the podcast. But no, in all seriousness, you're right. I had a shocker of a year and I think i think the competition is so close and so competitive these days that like coming back from a very, very poor opening three, four, five rounds is very, very difficult. It's not impossible, but very difficult. um In terms of the sort of the mistakes I've made, I i feel like I was actually... ah
00:02:31
Vams (Fantasynut)
like on the ball, on the money with a lot of my pre-season thoughts, ideas, research. The reality is that I completely wet the bed after that Grundy, um what was that, you know, that early game, I think it was around one,
The Importance of Rookies and Mid-Pricers
00:02:44
Vams (Fantasynut)
right? um I was trying to be clever. I put him in that emergency spot, like like the the previous year i I did the same thing with Tristan Cherry. So I started Tristan Cherry the previous year and you'll recall he got injured very early in that game and I was able to shuffle a few things around and and um and basically put myself in a position to be able to maneuver good trade the following week. So um I tried the same thing with Grundy, he got that poor score.
00:03:11
Vams (Fantasynut)
And I was like, and I remember chatting with you at the time as well. And you were like, nah, I think this is a good idea to overreact to this. And I got cute. And I completely shuffled my team around with a view of essentially trading out Grundy the following week. And and I'll get to who I traded him to in a moment. But i I made a whole host of changes from my team. I didn't have every single good pick out there.
00:03:35
Vams (Fantasynut)
But I did have a few of the must-haves like Nick Martin, who I then traded to an Ollie Wines, someone else who I then traded to Giant Newcomb. Basically, um again, just completely altered my team to other guys that I i was keen on. Don't get me wrong. um But unfortunately, just removed a couple of very key guys from my team. um And so I think the first lesson I would say is I still think doing that thing of putting in a Thursday player or a Friday player in that emergency spot. I still think you can do it, especially obviously if you've got a ah red dot there um as a just-in case, but unless they've got like unless they've sustained a clear long-term injury that's going to 100% require a trade next week, don't do what I did and overreact to it to a bad score. So that was the the first huge mistake, and a lot of my mistakes basically follow on from from that mistake.
00:04:33
Vams (Fantasynut)
I guess the second big mistake I made was that my starting team, I did have a number of players that I put in that I thought would improve just on the basis of natural improvement. You know, John, you can being one of them.
00:04:48
Vams (Fantasynut)
had a couple of guys that I also put in my team purely on the basis that I thought they could get off to a very hot start. um Dan Houston. um I think Port Adelaide not just had a good draw but you look at the scores that Dan Houston put up against those opponents the previous year and it was huge and I was like beauty I'm gonna i'm gonna put him in get off to a really hot start i'm ahead of the comp beautiful he actually like massively underperformed and so the second i guess lesson and you know what i'd be asking people to be very cautious of is over indexing on both last year's matchups in terms of degree of difficulty
00:05:27
Vams (Fantasynut)
but also how a player has performed against a team previously. Jaden Papowski has previously debunked this theory that um a player's previous score against a certain team is any sort of prognostic indicator as to how they're going to go against that very same team the next time. So just be be careful of that. I guess the the final big mistake I made was um those first certainly two and you know two to three rounds you the guys you're going to bring in at the clear must-have either rookies or mid-prices there's not really any top-end price guy that's going to be a must-have and i think you know dt lemon this is what he's an absolute master of like it's You look at his starting side and he's he's got no secret with regards to like the guys he's starting. There's nothing particularly special about his starting side, but what he is an absolute master of is those first four to six trades. His, his team's basically completely transformed and he has all the must have guys. So instead of like bringing in the, the Bonner Martin.
00:06:31
Vams (Fantasynut)
She's these types. So I think you basically needed those guys maybe even a gone, you know at least three or four of those um To get off to a good start instead of bringing in those guys. I brought in Caleb Sarong, right? It was priced at 120 and then basically gave me barely 105 for the rest of the year I mentioned earlier I traded out, you know, Brody Grundy. Who did I bring in? I brought in Tim English, right basically priced at 117 Like to be fair, he had West Coast and and Geelong coming up, but he didn't put up anything special against those two teams. So i that was ah I should not have been bringing in those very highly priced premiums at that point in the season. I should have been doing fix up trades and bringing in the must
Early Season Strategies and 'Fat Pitch' Theory
00:07:15
Vams (Fantasynut)
-haves. So I would summarize my mistakes as ah as those three things.
00:07:21
Holmesy
Yeah, look, and you've highlighted a great point and it it kind of resonates with me as well. So like I mentioned, I got off to a pretty good start, ranked inside 200 after round four. um And then round five, Brody Grundy had his buy and I thought, I'm going to get cute here. He looked like he was tiring and and pretty much coming towards the top end of his price. And I decided to use my upgrade money to get Brody Grundy up to Rowan Marshall, who admittedly had had a fantastic start. And I thought this was a way that I could maybe get some points on the competition, but he would have been priced around that sort of 115, 120 mark. And admittedly he got injured, which doesn't help him in a different world. He might've just kept going the way that he was going and and it would have been different, but it highlights just how difficult and why we don't pay up for players in the early part of the season, because it's all about cash-gen. It's all about finding that value. And as soon as you lose money on those type of players, it it puts your cash-gen team value at ah at a huge disadvantage.
00:08:17
Vams (Fantasynut)
I think you're spot on. i think I think viewing these players that you're looking for, once again, like we're doing it now with regards to what they're priced at, etc. There's no reason you should abandon that approach early in the season. I think that's kind of the key point. I think you and I are probably somewhat similar in that way we we do tend to be a little bit more aggressive or like the idea or like to adopt a strategy where we think we can get a leg up on the competition from.
00:08:42
Vams (Fantasynut)
Um, and probably the mistake is thinking we can do that by bringing in the, the Uber premiums. But the reality is that we're paying for, we're paying for that. Like this is not a situation. You're getting Rowan Marshall at a price of one Oh five. You think you can go at one 20, like what's so special about paying up one 20 for a Tim English and you're getting one 20 like.
00:09:01
Vams (Fantasynut)
there's nothing in that. So I think um focusing on bringing in these must haves that we've missed is probably like, I mean, I think early in the season that that there's nothing more important than that, right?
00:09:15
Holmesy
100%. And that's a good good segue. So we've got a few ideas that you're going to pitch to us throughout the podcast. And this is going to be fantasy nut theory number one. So why don't you pitch me your, is it your fat pitch idea?
00:09:27
Holmesy
Is that what we're rolling with?
00:09:28
Vams (Fantasynut)
and look this is yeah i mean Look, this is not a particularly novel idea to be honest with you. I think um I mentioned earlier some of the mistakes I made with my starting team, like looking at guys who ah they had a lot they had a great second half to last year or they've got a hot run to start the season. Let's start with them. and like the I think the idea of the fat pitch idea actually originated from a ah baseball player from a long time ago called Ted Williams. And in an interview a long time ago, you know this is a guy who his batting average was extraordinarily high. I think perhaps even the highest ever batted like 400. It was incredible. And people asked him, how do you do this? And his idea was like, I just don't swing at stuff that's not in my sweet zone.
00:10:11
Vams (Fantasynut)
i I know what my sweet zone is and everything that's outside of that, I leave it. right Warren Buffett, arguably the greatest investor of all time, he has a similar theory where he's like, I don't need to go and invest in anything. I wait until an absolute golden opportunity comes comes up and i I swing at it. I go for the home run. right so I guess bringing this to to fantasy, it's trying to identify what's the fat pitch. yeah So what set of circumstances generally results in the best breakouts for fantasy players. And I think doing that you both limit your potential downside with these starting picks but more importantly
00:10:49
Vams (Fantasynut)
you've got the best chance of these guys absolutely popping. And I think there's probably three very obvious and key circumstances that we can identify, which again, it's not particularly novel, um but obviously number one, a player that just gets more opportunity in a particular role due to either an injury to another player or a retirement from a certain player, right? The second one is a player getting a brand new role, whether that's getting more mid-time, which is yeah traditionally what we've associated um with the with breakout candidates, but in in recent times it's moving to that half back roll. The third one, which typically coincides with these those earlier two, which is a player changing teams, often that results in either more opportunity or a new role. so
00:11:33
Vams (Fantasynut)
I think they're the three things that you can kind of identify as what's potentially a fat pitch pick in your starting side. And you only have to look at last year as who the, you know, taking rookies out of it, who were the biggest cash gen, you know, guys in the comp last year. And they're all within one of those categories. You're looking at a Maddie Roberts, that was, and you know, ah a new role to halfback Ollie Dempsey. That was obviously an opportunity one or a Harry Sharp, but you know,
00:12:00
Vams (Fantasynut)
um ah Sorry, not not Harry Sharp, Jeremy Sharp, you know, getting that that wing roll there. Riley Bonner changed teams, improved roll. Tom Pals inside mid-roll. Cherry took over the number one roll. Heaney, improved roll. Gorn, gone from a dual-ruck to a single-ruck. Sheasel, that was probably the one outlier. That was pure natural progression, right? It was Sam Darcy, that's probably the other one. A bit of natural progression. Yo, returning from injury. Zorko,
00:12:25
Vams (Fantasynut)
better role, Nick Martin, better role. So just about all of them, I would say 80, 90% of them are probably within those, um as I said, that that set of circumstances. So I think going into this year, trying to identify which players fit into those categories and and and swinging for the fences on those ones, rather than getting a little bit cute and looking, trying to make picks based on Hopium.
00:12:52
Holmesy
So i'll I'll throw you on the spot then because it, look, everything makes sense. It's, it's what we try and do with, and you've just kind of summed it up beautifully, but who would be a player who maybe has a little bit of pre-season buzz that's popular that you believe doesn't fit this fat pitch model in terms of, you know, maybe this has to happen and this has to happen and this has to happen, but where we're optimistic that it will all happen, where it's not necessarily an obvious sort of selection.
00:13:18
Vams (Fantasynut)
um It's interesting, let me have a think, let me have a think. um
00:13:25
Vams (Fantasynut)
It's nothing coming to my head because to be honest with you, I've kind of um put those guys out of my mind this preseason. So like I've tried not to to to think of too many guys or contemplate too many guys for my starting team that that don't fit those criteria.
Team Structure and Flexibility
00:13:40
Vams (Fantasynut)
I mean, you know what? One might be something like Will Ashcroft. um I've heard some very good fantasy coaches, although even him, you could argue he's coming back from injury. So he's got a little bit of, you know,
00:13:53
Vams (Fantasynut)
maybe a little bit of upside there, just on the fact that he came back injured last year, but he's one that I think, you know, you're you're making, I think you're making that selection predominantly on the fact that he's a, he's a star. Um, yes, a little bit of, um, you know, injury, low time on ground or didn't quite get the role last year. So you could make an argument that the role improves. Um, but in terms of mid prices or i'm struggling to come up with too many, to be honest with you, have you got any in mind?
00:14:21
Holmesy
Oh, well I'll throw you a name. Do do you think Ollie Hollands fits your fat pitch idea?
00:14:26
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, I mean, look absolutely. I think he does. Now we can debate what his upside is, but he certainly fits the criteria of someone that's gone to a new role, right? So he was out on a wing. He's now going to a half back row. Um, he's, we, we,
00:14:41
Vams (Fantasynut)
We've seen him in this role for four or five games last year where he did reasonably well. um Granted two or three of those four or five matchups, he was in that role, half back role, was a very nice favorable matchup. So you'd kind of expect him to score well. You've now got Nick Newman injured. So absolutely he fits the criteria for someone that's not just gone to a new role, but arguably gone to the juiciest role, right? That half back.
00:15:08
Vams (Fantasynut)
potentially distributed type. The only caveat I would put with with Ollie Hollins is in reference to a tweet that I put out of ah yeah a few days ago, which is of the top 15 AFL fantasy averaging defenders last year.
00:15:24
Vams (Fantasynut)
all but two of them were either number one or number two for kick-ins for their respective teams. um And so last year, McGovern, Saad and Newman were the the top three kick-in guys. You know, Ollie Hollins doesn't strike me as a particularly like elite kicker of the ball and so is he someone that's going to be taking bulk kick-ins I'm skeptical um I'm happy to wait and see what what transpires and and see what happens in the preseason game but I think without those kick-ins I'm not sure he's going to be able to get above 85 but 85 might not be a bad pick particularly given
00:16:02
Vams (Fantasynut)
He's probably going to get DPP, right? Um, with that first round of changes. And, you know, if you told me midfield 80 to 85, I'm like, Oh, I don't know about this, but if you can, if you say to 85, he's going to get DPP, what is it?
00:16:17
Vams (Fantasynut)
Round six. I can flick him back to D D five at that point and, and, and feel reasonably comfortable carrying him to the buy. Um, I know you're not a big fan of your thoughts.
00:16:25
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it's it's it's interesting.
00:16:31
Holmesy
Oh, I mean, I think, what was the stat you put out? I think you worked out, what was Locky Whitfield's average if you take away all the kick-ins that he got?
00:16:37
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah. It was like 91.
00:16:37
Holmesy
It was like 92 or something?
00:16:39
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah. 91, 92. It's extraordinary. Like how much, you know, I wonder what, um, Luke grinds would be as well. Like, you know what I mean? Like, um, so yeah.
00:16:48
Holmesy
Yeah, so if you if you're not banking on him getting kick-outs, which I don't think he will for the record,
00:16:52
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yes. Yes.
00:16:54
Holmesy
Yeah, you know, maybe 85 is absolute best case, which you're right. If you got to 85 and had defender status and you're able to flick him back to take a rookie off field there, or or maybe, you know, one of your Sandra Conings or Ari Showmakers, whoever you've got there is starting to top out or or losing the role, then absolutely is value. but Yeah, i'm so I'm still on the fence. I think you'd need to go 85 as a minimum. And if I see that as his best case, then and yeah, i'm I'm still up in the air about it. I need to see how it lines up in the in the preseason before I'm confident to launch in.
00:17:27
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, I think I think i agree. that I'm on the fence as well. I mean, guys of that price point, I prefer peatling, but um I've had mock teams where I've got both of them in, and we'll get to this a little bit later with regards to midfield structure. He might be, depending on what sort of structure I go within in the midfield, um he might be one that, even though I don't mind him as a pick, I might need to sacrifice for structure purposes. We can't fit all these guys in. and as I said yeah as we'll get into midfield is we've got a lot of options at every price point there it seems anyway.
00:18:03
Holmesy
Yeah, so let's ah let's jump in now to to kind of chat about this. So we know the game's changed because of A, we've got more trades now than we ever have. They're adding another ah trade in with the ah next round of the mid-season buys. And then it's changed because we've got the opening round. So how do you think the game has changed in terms of tackling the opening round buys? And how does that change how we think about starting players in our initial starting squads?
00:18:33
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, I think it's a really important question. It's something I put a lot of thought into this pre-season. Maybe too much thought in the sense that it's very easy to overthink these things and get a little bit too cute. All right, so with these early buyers, but it's obviously best 18. Last year it was what was it, four of the first six rounds from memory. um This year it's three of the first four rounds. So it's not an insignificant amount of time.
00:18:58
Vams (Fantasynut)
um you know all rounds where you've got best 18 and i I don't think it's controversial to say in a best 18 scenario um provided all players perform to their average which granted absolutely doesn't always happen but in that scenario a guns and rookies type approach or favouring the, or optimising for more ceiling scores is probably going to be better. Your your worst rookie scores or um carrying the extra one or two rooks, you're insulated from from that by the fact that they got um but you know they're going to probably drop off, right? So I guess I have been thinking about like, how can you sort of take advantage of this? And I i am wondering
00:19:45
Vams (Fantasynut)
Whilst most folks look to try and get more rookies off their field and some very good coaches, JD, he's been on your podcast, his approach has always been to try and limit the number of rookies that he has on field. I just wonder in those first three three of those four ah three of the four ah first four rounds whether you can safely have an extra one one or two rookies with the goal of spending up um for some more premiums to try and get the odd premium score and the reality is you only need ah if you get like one or two ceiling scores from a premium a week that can really be a huge talent for your score that way you get a dawson um you know that pops a 130 or 140 you get lucky here's your captain
00:20:31
Vams (Fantasynut)
you know That's the other thing, these premiums that yeah potentially a captain option. I just wonder if if optimizing for that for that does help. I think the other thing with with the early buys, obviously you know part and parcel of that is opening round. and With opening round, not we just get a free look with regards to helping who to start with. but In addition to that, you get this increased velocity of cash gen from the guys that but played in that that um opening round. so They've got an extra price rise baked in, which means, I think we saw this last year, which means
00:21:05
Vams (Fantasynut)
you know, with a little bit of luck, you're starting to make upgrades a little bit earlier as well, right? And so, again, that's, I guess in terms of the early rounds, that's something I'm thinking about, whether I think about structuring particularly the midfield a little bit differently than what I might have otherwise done to try and optimize for some more ceiling scores.
00:21:26
Vams (Fantasynut)
I think um yeah coming to your question also about the mid-season buys, I think the big difference this year is that the mid-season buys go for, we've got an extra buy, but it goes ah think it's on the it's on the back end. It's around 16 from memory. And you look at last year.
00:21:46
Vams (Fantasynut)
um Teams were coming out of the last buy last year with basically a completed team or very close to it. This year we've got an extra um round where we've got three more trades. So in terms of what I'm thinking about now I don't know if this is going to be super important with regards to how I start my team but I think it's something I will factor in when I start to trade in guys. I'd be leaning towards back ending some of these buys um towards the because you might come to that round 16 by and your teams might be close to complete already. You can then spend three trades like just sideways in three guns arere out of their round 16 by potentially. So I think that's another like potential wrinkle this year that was a bit different to last year. um In terms of thinking that how am I going to navigate the buy
Midfield Strategy and Player Risks
00:22:36
Vams (Fantasynut)
period? What are your thoughts?
00:22:38
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it's it's very interesting. i want I want to circle back to this more of a guns and rookies approach to start the year because I don't think it's i don't think it's the same as what we traditionally think of as guns and rookies. Now, I i vividly remember in 2018 when I came ninth, I was very guns and rookies to the point I think I started eight rookies on field that year. But The guns and rookies we're talking about is not going to be that many rookies.
00:23:05
Holmesy
I think at the moment, structure-wise, the good value teams that you're looking at are potentially maybe three or four rookies on field.
00:23:08
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yep.
00:23:14
Holmesy
But the guns and rookies strategy that we're looking at to optimize for ceiling scores, you're still only looking at maybe six rookies on field because we're we're getting the value in so in the forward line with McCray, with Baz Smith, with Daniel, potentially Sanders. what these are These are guys that we're looking at to be premium scorers for us, but at a a serious discount. And then even in defence, we're not spending up either when we look at a Mills, a Perriman or Roberts.
00:23:43
Holmesy
So even though we're going guns and rookies, it's not going to be a eight, nine rookie on field structure. You're still going to have six, which means you've got plenty of time to get them off the field, but we've got to spend up somewhere. And I don't know about you. I ah don't want to spend up in the rucks at this point in time. I've been on the record there. Now, admittedly, I've got the rucks wrong over the last few years.
00:24:05
Holmesy
But we have to spend the cash because at the end of the day, value is king, but you win the comp by scoring points. And I actually really like this idea of of trying to target some ceiling scores in the midfield, knowing that these midfielders are discounted because of the year that we had last year with no midfield averaging above 110. It's not like we're paying a 120 for ah a Rory Laird or a 120 for a Jack Steele. They're all seriously discounted.
00:24:30
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah completely agree and you're spot on referring to it as a guns and rookie approach is not quite correct by definition as you said the old-fashioned guns and rookies was quite literally keepers as we used to refer to them and literally rookies I think these days um Like the community in general is just so much better at ah highlighting potential mid-press breakouts, right? like Like compared to like a long time ago, it was so much better. it's It's actually quite amazing how accurate the community is as a whole in terms of at least putting the potential breakouts on a shortlist. So I think what I'm more referring to is not so much guns and rookies, but rather having
00:25:15
Vams (Fantasynut)
one or two, and you're quite right, it's not a heap more, but one or two rookies more on field and thus using that saved cash um to then upgrade one or two other mid prices to a premium.
00:25:30
Vams (Fantasynut)
And so i like let me talk about this like hypothesis that I've got for this year.
00:25:32
Holmesy
Yep.
00:25:35
Vams (Fantasynut)
I'm not set on it. I'm just something I'm thinking through. So the premise is basically,
00:25:40
Holmesy
Fantasy nut theory number two. We're at number two. This is good.
00:25:43
Vams (Fantasynut)
All right, let's go. Let's go. like and And by all means, poke as many holes as you want. like I'm not going to take offense. So my my theory is based on the following premise. Premise number one, what I outlined earlier with regards to best 18 for three of the first four rounds. Premise number two is last year seemed to be a, bit well, it was a very unique year in that we had one guy average 110 or more, and that was Treloar who averaged 110.
00:26:09
Vams (Fantasynut)
Now, I tried to come up with ideas as to why that was the case, and I i can't. um I wonder if it it was just pure circumstances, i.e. Crows had some injuries, so Dawson was shuffled around a little bit more, which means he had three or four sixties, otherwise he would have gone 110.
00:26:26
Vams (Fantasynut)
or a tom green he got injured he played hobbled otherwise he would have gone 110 so was it purely just a pure circumstance that we had one instead of potentially three or four in which case we wouldn't be even talking about this like anomaly of a year right and so again the second premise is that we potentially have what one might consider value options, even at that top end premium mid-level, i.e. guys priced between, let's call it 100 to 105 in that range, like a Rosie, a Brayshore, a Dawson, a Tom Green, potentially a Taranto. Insert your favorite premium midfielder, yeah? So the second idea is that
00:27:10
Vams (Fantasynut)
as you as you said paying up for midfielders this year is not paying 117 for bond paying 120 for lead or took or or steal it's potentially still a ah value option but at a much much at ah at a lower price point but these guys could go 110 or or higher and then the third idea um behind this hypothesis is like the forward line is looking like we can easily fill it with options we feel very confident in at this point in time for a very low overall spend yeah um like people are debating who should i have like at f my f1 like i don't know i don't like any of these options well you don't have to pick any of them like obviously mccray bailey smith caleb daniel and um you know their locks most people at this point like a sanders type but
00:28:01
Vams (Fantasynut)
you know we've now got you know Dan Curtin seemed to perform very well in today's like match sim for the crows Elijah Hewitt is probably going to get at least a little bit of mid-time if not you know a lot more than that Connor Stone potentially is best 22 for for GWS you got Sam Davidson you know there may be some names I'm forgetting but my point is is like it's it's It's pretty easy to not spend up in the forward line and have a whole bunch of value options there that you feel comfortable with. Similarly in defense, as has been discussed a lot, all the 110 guys in defense, it seems like for one reason or another, a lot if not all of them are gonna come down in price a lot. We're struggling to come up with guys priced above, I would say 85 that we feel very confident in at least being
00:28:50
Vams (Fantasynut)
and value. with you I think that's why a lot of people are locking in a Jack Sinclair or a Wanganyan Miller. We don't like a lot of those options. So another idea might be going, you know what, I'm going to put a Jayden Short or a Trent Rivers or something like that as my D1 and not spend up there. Now, we have another issue with regards to juggling the round three by that. That's a separate discussion. um But my point is, is you cannot spend a lot in in defense and still fill it out with know potentially like good options. So you're then left with a lot of cash to then fill out both your rucks and and the midfield and we'll chat about the rucks a little bit later but one option in the midfield is why don't you just stack it with these 100 105 guys
00:29:37
Vams (Fantasynut)
um I mentioned a few of them earlier, maybe put in a peatling still. We've still got an Oliver there, so you've still got two mid-price options. yeah ah For the sake of this discussion, I'll refer to Oliver as a mid-pricer. So you've still got a little bit of optionality or flexibility in your structure in the midfield if you miss another guy that you can you can then flex to. yeah So this is not a pure guns and rookie approach, which I agree with what others have said. It does kind of limit you somewhat with regards to the the rigidity of like being able to move off that like if you start a Bontum Pelly for instance are you if he does 99 and then 103 are you really going to trade him out like for a mid price that's popped you're probably not like psychologically it's hard to do that so I do think from a flexibility standpoint having one or two mid prices in there which allows you to either go down or up
00:30:30
Vams (Fantasynut)
Um, if they fail and if there's another good option elsewhere, you want to move to, I think that's good, but it's pretty easy to come up with a team of, as I said, three or four, 100 to one Oh five guys, plus an all of a possibilities. And then, and then have, you know, whatever you want to two or maybe even one rookie in the midfield. So you're really spending up in the midfield, hoping to, to get some of those ceiling scores early, all those premium mids that I've mentioned up, you know, but not all of them will be, but.
00:31:00
Vams (Fantasynut)
Hopefully a lot of them will be potentially be value and you know build your team that way instead of stacking it with a with a chair or a will day or Peatling and a Hollands and a Caniglio You know, we can talk about mid prices and some of the pitfalls of going with too many of those but that's kind of my hypothesis number two of You know, the guys like Lemon, like JD, like Selby, who have had a lot of success avoiding all those types of midfielders. I'm just wondering, is this the year for the reasons I've just outlined where you can potentially not just get away with it, but is this is the cards we've been dealt for this season is almost pointing in that that's the direction we should go? What do what do you think?
00:31:47
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I mean, it's something I've been successful with in the past, admittedly, a while ago now. So 2021, I did actually start for top line midfielders. I believe that was the year I started McCray and Merritt, who are both priced at 110. Now, if you if you tell anyone that these days, it's all you can't be starting someone priced at 110 and or maybe only one of them, but they they both went 120 for the first half of the year. So that's that's value. So if you pick the right guys, of course, it works.
00:32:17
Holmesy
um And then I think it was two other guys priced in the in the 90s and and both of them both of them were You know 105 plus so absolutely it can work if they all present value But that's that's part of it, right?
00:32:28
Holmesy
Like what happens if you spend up on these guys, but then you know, Jordan Dawson still is mr. to Fix it and he gets thrown around or bracer and sarong go back to fighting for fighting for pill and they're both just 105 guys or you you know, Tom Green gets a few tags early and and doesn't get the outside peel that he did back in 2023 when conveniently Whitfield didn't play a big role in that season, you know.
00:32:43
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
00:32:51
Holmesy
So i like I like the idea of it, but it does make a lot of, put a lot of pressure on you to make sure that they are the right picks.
00:32:59
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
00:32:59
Holmesy
But then admittedly as well, like the the pitfall of the mid price, which I want to get into now, is that we really need those players to get off to a flyer to be good picks. I mean, the magic number is as ah it's its at the start of the year, your players need to outperform by their price that figure a lot more than later on in the year because so many of the rookies and and cheaper guys are coming up, which means that also you you need to be going up as well. Otherwise, even if you're maintaining, you're going down. So we always talk about the Dom sheet example or the Ollie Wines example of last year where
00:33:35
Holmesy
priced at 70, end up with a 90 average at the end of the year, we think 20 points upside, that's great. But if they start slow and they come out with a couple of 70s, you either need to get off ASAP or you need to hold. And if they just keep going the way they are, it's a slow burn and everyone else has made the cash and you're just sitting there not making any.
00:33:55
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, i think I think that's super important. and And coming back to the idea of being able to start premiums and do well, you know the the reason you did well starting, who was it, Meryton and someone else, is they it wasn't it wasn't just what, because they were, I mean, the reality is they outperformed their price. that Ultimately, that's what this game is about. Whether ah someone goes 70 to 90 or like, you know, 100 to 100, the point is we wanna,
00:34:21
Vams (Fantasynut)
get guys that do more than what we pay for and the lower you know the higher price someone is yes there's less upside we want out of them but we still want to get some upside even Matty Mottram the year after he won um you know he was still traveling top 10 for a lot of the year it's quite remarkable but ah he jumped on Clayton Oliver very very early or I can't remember if we started him or traded into him very early and that was like two years ago Clayton Oliver went like at 120 125 early in the season and so once again like it's not so much avoiding the 105 mids or the 110 mids I think the issue with them is that it's just so hard for them to outperform but as I mentioned earlier like the unique thing that we've got this year is that we've got a whole bunch we're not paying 110 we're not paying 150 we're paying
00:35:10
Vams (Fantasynut)
a hundred two hundred and five for guys that have shown they can go one ten before so i think it's a little bit different coming to your point with mid prices and um unfortunately i've started both dom sheet and ollie wines in the last two years so this is something i've got to look at is that just like sheer bad luck or am i doing something wrong that leads me to these types but um I think the interesting thing with both is that I think there was absolutely merit still in starting both and I would dispute the fact that either of them were poor starting selections knowing what we knew at the time. Dom Sheed for instance yes he started slow he then got hurt and he came back and went 105 over his next five games. Ollie Wines very similar last year he started slow going at around about that 70 mark it
00:35:55
Vams (Fantasynut)
got injured, missed a game or something. He then came back and did 104 over his next five games before having a stinker. So I think you know you compare that to a Matt Crouch last year. He went 100 over his first five. Nick Martin, he went 110 over his first five or six games. Riley Bonner, he went at about 95. Will Sederfield the previous year, he was going at about 110 or I think it was 108 in his first five, six games, something like that. so the the real tricky thing as you just mentioned with these mid prices is you know you're quite right it's not good enough for us to just look at their season long average and go that was a good pick that was a bad pick it's like what did they do over those first five games and like the reality is you do need a fair bit of luck for them to not just pop but pop early it's no good for them to pop later in the season they're out of your team by then
Defensive Player Strategies
00:36:45
Vams (Fantasynut)
so what is it like what they average for you in their team is what's important and
00:36:50
Vams (Fantasynut)
I think being particularly discerning with with those picks and you know with with the you know the criteria that I mentioned earlier, but also being very astute with regards to jumping on the right ones early as well, they're probably the the key points. but I mean it's it's it's like this is the debate isn't it like what's more risky starting more of these premium types ah around that 100 to 105 mark they're previously gone 110 or is it more risky like starting a chair who's had five hamstrings last year right yes he's gone to Dubai I still don't know what they're doing over there but you know let's see if it works um or a will day he yes he averaged 95 a year or two ago it was a very different hawkside they play differently now
00:37:34
Vams (Fantasynut)
He's got a early buy. you know He's had some injuries. Yes, they've been some unlucky injuries, but they've still got some injuries. you know Apparently, he's going to be moved forward a little bit. like I would argue um yeah that's as much risk, is it not? um so it It doesn't mean you can't have the odd one or two. um you know ah For me, someone like Pete Ling is like yeah potentially a very good pick. Ollie Hollins, as I said, I know you're not hot on, but he's one I'm watching.
00:38:03
Vams (Fantasynut)
um So I think there is room for a couple of them, but I've seen teams that have like four of these guys plus one or two rooks plus maybe one premium mid. I'm not sure. What do you think?
00:38:19
Holmesy
Well, talk us through that then. So continue continuing on with your theory, you spoke to me pre-pod that you've played around with some teams that had three of these gun mids, ah maybe one mid pricer and a peatling and three rookies, but you've even made some teams where you've had four of these gun mids and all of our appealing and then the two rookies. So if we, if we hone in on that, that previous structure there, what does that do to the rest of your team in terms of rookies in defense, rookies in the forward line and and being able to have the ability to spend up in the rucks too?
00:38:53
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, I guess the the answer to this question, but ah different people are going to feel differently about like what that does to the rest of your team. And what I mean by that is, if you like some of the like a lot of the mid-price options in defence, and if you like a lot of the cheap options in the forward line,
00:39:09
Vams (Fantasynut)
then you're going to be like, man, my team still looks great if I start full premium, like Uber premium mids. Yeah. But other people that don't like those options or see them as quite risky, they're going to be like, man, like if these guys don't go well, you've got very few pivot points. You're going to need all sorts of restructures to get up. So again, you'll have different people have different thoughts on that based on their own projections. Me personally, like I can quite easily come up with a team that I really like with you know, three premium mids, and I'm talking premium, let's call it a Rosie priced up, um or a Toronto price up, plus an Oliver, plus two mid-pricer type where Ollie Hollands or a Pete Ling, plus two rookies. And I've then only got, you know, two rookies in the forward line. And by the way,
00:39:55
Vams (Fantasynut)
I think it's important to distinguish between different types of rookies. like Someone like a Dan Curtin that's now been in the system for a couple of years, or someone like an Elijah Hewitt, granted he's been injured, been in the system for a few years. like These are very different rookies to a you know an 18-year-old kid that weighs as much as like a you know a wet towel that teams are going to really want to manage. So I'm not saying they're without risk.
00:40:20
Vams (Fantasynut)
but I don't view them as the same amount of risk as ah as a completely fresh drafty. Again, it doesn't mean they're going to score better, although you know I think history does suggest these these inverted commerce rooks that have been in the system for a couple of years. They probably do have a better path to to really popping. You'll just have to look at someone like an Ollie Dempsey last year as an example of that. so But to answer your question, as I said, I can reasonably, comfortably come up with a team that I quite like.
00:40:49
Vams (Fantasynut)
with one, two, like four rookies on field, right? and um And that's not even including a rookie in defense, which I think is probably gonna be a little bit hairy. So, you know, to your earlier point, this is not years gone by where starting all these premium mids, because they were priced at 110, 115, 120, meant that you had to start three extra rookies to cater for that. Like, that's not the case this year. I think the the unique thing now is we've got like,
00:41:18
Vams (Fantasynut)
like so many good cheap options in the forward line or what seems to be at this stage. And even in defense, like I think the harder part about defense is how many of these round three guys you can handle because to be honest, and I've thought about this, I don't think I can do it. um It's not a hypothesis, I don't say it's number. but number three or number four it's not sort of full thing i'm putting out there but like you know you look at like mills everyone's going to start i think perryman you know i think he could do quite well i certainly think he's under priced i think potentially maddie roberts is under priced i certainly think sam de conning is under priced and so i'll definitely be starting two of them and probably going to be starting three of them um i don't know if i can do four but like if you could figure out or felt comfortable taking a round three hit you can come up with what i think is probably a fairly
00:42:06
Vams (Fantasynut)
um cozy back line with, you know, with four pretty cheap options there. um And then, you know, I mean, let me ask you about someone like Jaden Short, um before I forget actually. He's someone that is not like, is highly owned and I think it speaks to the lack of options we have at that 80, 85 point per game, like like price point and above in terms of who we think we can improve.
00:42:33
Vams (Fantasynut)
Let me ask you, the quick what is the pathway for Jaden Short to improve? I don't get it. He's priced at 80. Richmond were already bad last year. like Why are we so sure that he's going 90 plus this year? What am I missing there?
00:42:48
Holmesy
Yeah, I mean, he's he's someone that's he's been in my team without without much thought. But I i suppose the the data that's been been looked at, he started a bit slow. But I think it was I think 85 post buy and then 19 his last five.
00:43:03
Holmesy
So ah don't quote me on that. But this is something along those lines.
00:43:05
Vams (Fantasynut)
Hmm.
00:43:06
Holmesy
So there was a ah bit of an improvement towards the end of the season. But The whole market share argument is being put out there. So, you know, a team loses. Shire Bolton, Liam Baker, Dustin Martin, who admittedly was was off last year.
00:43:17
Vams (Fantasynut)
Hmm.
00:43:20
Holmesy
um I'm sure there's a few more that I can't remember. But, you know, these these rookies aren't going to come in and just score those points. They're going to take some of them, but they are going to need senior players to to shoulder the load.
00:43:32
Holmesy
And we know how important kick outs are. And if Richmond are a team that's going to be getting smashed um on on games, there might be, you know, upwards of fifteen maybe twenty if a teams being inaccurate kickins on offer and if he has half of them or even more than that, then there's three points that we know are so valuable. and I think um the ball boys guys that are Richmond supporters, they're banking on that Richmond run and run and gun style being a little bit different this year.
00:43:59
Holmesy
and And, you know, maybe adopting a bit of North Melbourne with being so bad and and needing to chip around a little bit more, which, which plays into a Jaden short. So I think safety in numbers with the potential upside, I think is a pretty no brainer pick at this point in the preseason, unless
00:44:08
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yep. Yep.
00:44:14
Holmesy
it comes out during the preseason games and and leading into round one that maybe they do want to give some of these younger guys a bit more responsibility because, you know, Jayden Short's not young anymore.
00:44:22
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yep.
00:44:24
Holmesy
um You know, if it it would be horrendous if he found himself on a wing or, you know, maybe not even starting on the ground to begin the games and he was rotating on. But until I say that, i'm I'm pretty confident he'll be the one of the main distributors back there and a pretty bad team.
00:44:38
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, I think you're right. I guess my my pushback on that was, I think that was all the case last year. He already got 95 kick-ins last year, which, you know, once you're approaching 100, that's pretty high. um The main, you know, the main kicking guys for Richmond last year were Jayden Short with 95, Vlostin with 77, then Rioli with 30. So Rioli going is not going to move the needle that much with regards to kick-ins.
00:45:01
Vams (Fantasynut)
um yeah if richmond are potentially worse this year is the overall you know team points going to go down as well um i i think he's a safe selection because i i just don't see how he i don't think he's going to be worse and so i think he's a very and he's at a very nice price point there where you can plug him in um i think a lot of us were looking at someone like a mccurture as well at a somewhat similar price point but I think the uncertainty with his role is probably getting us yeah a little bit nervous with regards to him, but I'm not sure I see why short is you know a high chance of going, let's call it 90 plus. But as I said, we're we're kind of starved with options with regards to at that 80 plus price point anyway. So I mean, as I said, he's been in a lot of my teams as well, but I feel like we've all kind of put him in at the start of preseason because
00:45:53
Vams (Fantasynut)
he's you know seems cheap and Rioli's left and therefore he's going to get more ball without that too much thought thereafter and I'm just questioning like exactly how those extra 10-15 points per game where it's going to come from.
00:46:08
Holmesy
Yeah, look, you know, i'm ah I'm a big market share guy that, you know, it takes ah it takes a pretty special market share for for players to score in in bad teams in terms of, ah you know, Richmond only going 1,400 points per game last year. And I'm i'm still, I believe that that that's not the bottom. I think theyre they're going to be a lot worse this year. that It gives me Melbourne vibes back when they were the on the on the verge of folding, but I mean, I think it has more of an ah effect on Tim Taranto personally, um if he can't get his body right and they're they're getting smashed in the midfield.
00:46:38
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
00:46:41
Holmesy
But um for now, I think with the options and being starved in defense and with the with the comp going that way, I think I'm not willing to get cute on a Jaden Short and going against him just for the sake of going against him, especially when we're looking for players back there.
00:46:56
Holmesy
I'm happy to pick him at this point in time. but With those with those ah early round bye players that you spoke about, how how many is too many? like i've ah I personally have floated the idea of potentially taking a hit that week yeah if those players are the right players. I don't think one bad week is going to determine the rest of your year. I've been caught before trying to points chase for one week and it always seems worse than what it is. But do you think that you know if Well, if Mills is the guy, if Perriman's the guy, and then one of Roberts or Sander Koning is also the guy, is it a play to just plug in three of them and just hope for the best that week that you might get a ceiling score out of a rookie and and be okay?
00:47:38
Vams (Fantasynut)
I feel very comfortable, I think, starting three. um i you know I think two, if you if you like them, that is. um I think two, go for it. I think a lot of it's gonna also come down to you the defender rookies, whether they're even playing. like yeah So let's see what options emerge on our bench in defense. but And I think the other big factor is gonna be what the opening round score is. If if they all go bonkers opening round, like i i think that I just think the cash gen that you're probably gonna get, um like provided they continue, of course,
00:48:16
Vams (Fantasynut)
is probably going to offset um whatever points you might lose um in round in round three. ah to be I think the chance of them all going off is probably low. I think the chances of me starting all four of them is probably very low, um but I feel I feel pretty comfortable starting three. um Again, seeing let's wait and see if we have any half decent ah bench options in defence, but you know this is where also starting those premium midfielders might offset that a little bit. You get one or two of your premium midfielders, maybe you get a little bit lucky and nail and it like a peach of a captain that week.
00:48:55
Vams (Fantasynut)
yeah You can offset you know not getting 70 points from Sam to Conning that week like and you know or something like that. um I don't have a firm answer and I'm certainly not willing to say starting two is the right answer and starting three or more is the wrong answer. I think um there's going to be other variables that play, namely what they score in opening round, what you project them to do for the rest of the year.
00:49:19
Vams (Fantasynut)
like if they're all probably If they all turn out to be must-haves, let's call that. and And by that, I'll say, you know, mid-mills, he's playing inside mid, so he's probably certainly a must-have. But like, if Perriman's going to go on to average 90 plus, if Roberts is going to go on to average 90 plus, if Sam DeConning playing at least a part-time rock roll, you know, is going to average, let's call it 80 plus,
00:49:45
Vams (Fantasynut)
man that's that's that's a fair bit of value to pass up for the sake of maybe taking a hundred point hit that week um by you know let's just say you even play one down right let's just say it's a best 18 in round three and you only have 17 on field um I'd be tempted, I tell you, I'd be tempted that early in the season, but I'd want to, it would have to be under the ah premise of like, they're all like, I have to have them all. like And and the problem the problem is, particularly if they all pop around, opening round is like,
00:50:16
Vams (Fantasynut)
you know, and then potentially have at least one other good score before they're by like the price will just get away from you. Um, at least from a value standpoint, yes, you can go um and pay up like, but like the next thing you know, like Maddie Roberts, it's let's, you know, well I've got pyramid up. So he's breakeven 74. Now, um, I don't have like the projector in front of me, but let's just say you, you avoided him in, um,
00:50:41
Vams (Fantasynut)
you avoided starting him because you didn't want too many of these guys and then by the time you look to trade into him um after his buy, he's now priced at let's call it 85. I'm going to make up a number.
00:50:53
Vams (Fantasynut)
You're like, oh man, like he's got five, six points of upside. It's probably not a worthwhile trade in at that point. So you you know you're probably gonna let him go. So I do think that opening round score really does matter. And I think someone like a Tom Green in the midfield, who on the one hand, I do think is like potentially one of the best under priced premium mids.
00:51:14
Vams (Fantasynut)
but I just don't like that real disgusting round two bye. It's not even last year where it was like a round three, whatever it was last year, round three bye I think, right? It's a round two bye and then he potentially runs into like Connor Nash after his bye. But if Tom Green comes out and just like comes out with a 140 in opening round, I'd consider starting him then just because even if I didn't necessarily like his run and like his buy, um just the the price appreciation, it just means like you're just gonna lose that value. So maybe you just eat it. So that's probably how I'm thinking about it. What do you think?
00:51:53
Holmesy
Yeah, look, ah even if we do start three of these guys in defense, I don't think we'd be looking at, you know, only having 17 players on field. I think something drastic would have to happen in your starting squad for that to happen. I think you're comfortably going to get 18. It'll just be the the bottom end rookies coming on that would would be the issue.
00:52:12
Holmesy
The other thing that's glossed over is, you know, just because we start these guys in round one, two weeks is a long time in in fantasy. So, Sam DeConing might come out opening round, have the number one rock roll, might look and score well, round one he might have it. But, you know, the word might be that they're going to start to throw things around a little bit. We know what Geelong do.
00:52:30
Holmesy
There's no reason that you can't look to trade off one ah one or two of these guys in that in that buy around if they're not working out or the next guy comes along. So um's you don't have to put them on your bench and and cop a lower score. there's There's options there to trade them out. And that's what's great about AFL fantasy with the ah two trades, lose it ah use it or lose it. So, yeah.
Ruckmen Selection Challenges
00:52:50
Holmesy
I think i'm I'm in the camp of if they if they pop in opening round and they have the roles we think they have, then absolutely, I don't think I'd have an issue with starting too many of them. I just deal with it on that particular buy round and see where it lands after round three.
00:53:05
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah I agree.
00:53:07
Holmesy
So let's, uh, let's go into the rucks now because I'm completely lost, as, uh, mentioned on the podcast last week. Yeah, you can go back and check that out if you haven't listened already. But I spoke to you the other week and something stood out to me. You said, I think we need to think outside of the box with the rucks and I'm, I'm never one to just try and look for value if just for the sake of it, just trying to find it and tell myself a story. But you said you were going to go through and you were going going to go down ruck by ruck and just really try and see if we' we've missed something. But thinking outside the box, what are what are we going to do with the rucks? We're going to go through some of the top end guys and and why we're sort of cagey, but where are we at with the rucks at the moment?
00:53:46
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, like you said, it's um super awkward position. And eight, we're all in the same boat. So it's like, you know, we're all having to deal with it. So it's all good. But yeah, I mean, the issue with the rucks is like, like, what? dirt like the The two, like I think, fairly obvious value options were going to be Tom DeConning and Sean Darcy, right? The next thing you know, Sean Darcy goes to like wherever he went, Qatar, and like it was no problem. He was just going over there to do some rehab, and then coincidentally he comes back and he's got like some ankle, like, nail infection in his foot or something like that, right?
00:54:24
Vams (Fantasynut)
so he's out they've they've basically said he's out to start the season so he's not an option for us. Tom DeConning like we've all looked at um you know his games last year where he was solo ruck but Carlton won all the games when he was solo ruck um And we're all just kind of presuming he's going to be the solo ruck. And the next thing you know, like Carlton are coming out with all these fluff pieces about Mark Pitnett. And it's like, I'm now going like, why would you do this for your like backup ruck? Like, unless he was like still a key part of your team. I put out a tweet the other day and I was like, are we sure Tom DeConning is definitely the solo ruck? Like what's changed between last year and this year that makes you go, Carlton are going to do a 180 on this like dual ruck setup. Like,
00:55:10
Vams (Fantasynut)
The two big blocks where Tom DeConning was solo-ruck last year was when Mark Pitney was injured. So it's not like they even like made this like super conscious decision to like put him out there and see what he can do. They didn't really have a choice. So um i'm i'm I'm skeptical. I hope it's true, but I'm skeptical that it's a fait accompli that Tom DeConney is the solo-ruck.
00:55:36
Vams (Fantasynut)
um The awkward thing's going to be if you feel that way, what are you going to do when he's named solo for that first Thursday night game? Because the last thing you want is a situation where he's named solo and then come round four, five, six, just when you're starting to make upgrades or hoping to get into some like nice cadence with regards to upgrades each week and Pitnay's named. And what are you going to do then, right?
00:56:01
Vams (Fantasynut)
And so that's kind of, I'm just nervous about that. I'm, so I'm still keen on him and you know, he's still in most of my teams, but I'm nervous about it. And I'm just not sure that, um, again, that it's a, it's a certainty that he will be that. So I think they're like, from a value standpoint, they were the two like super obvious options. I think that I've got question marks over now.
00:56:26
Vams (Fantasynut)
The other one that I was like, oh, I feel pretty good about this was Kieran Briggs. And i I laid out a thesis as to why I thought he could take a step up this year. And then I completely missed this idea that he had some like off season surgery. So I'm like, okay, well, I'm not sure about that idea anymore.
00:56:41
Vams (Fantasynut)
um And then you go to the top end, obviously Rowan Marshall with this, I don't even know what you'd describe it because it's it's supposedly not a stress stress fracture. Let's call it a hotspot in his pelvis um that he's basically now going to miss, what is it, four, six, seven weeks of pre-season four?
00:57:00
Vams (Fantasynut)
It'll be very interesting to see what happens. and you know I know you've got some thoughts on this. What do we do if he's na what let's what do we do one if he plays in the preseason game? um Or two, what are you going to do if he's named solo in the round one game? um you know I think it's fair to say if either of those things happen.
00:57:20
Vams (Fantasynut)
they're fairly comfortable. I think if Boyd is named, that's just like at his price, Marshall's price, that is, you know, he's a no go if Boyd is named, but if he's named solo, who's got the stones to to pick him in light of this sort of recent injury, it's an injury that can reoccur as well.
00:57:37
Vams (Fantasynut)
um you know they Do they really want to run run him into the ground with ah with a hotspot in his pelvis? um Let's wait and see. So I guess when I was talking to you about this, ah we always go um either hunting for value or particularly in the rucks or just go straight to the top end. And I've just sort of kind of outlined why ah the value options are perhaps suboptimal and why the the top end options, both Marshall but also Cherry I should add, like you know we can get into this whether you know I don't think his early run is great I think he's due for aggression for a couple of reasons so I'm of the view that he's going to come down in price although he's got a very nice round one matchup maybe so if you don't like the top end options you don't like the value options
00:58:22
Vams (Fantasynut)
Like what's the harm in like going, you know what, I'm gonna, I'm gonna just gonna bring in a Jordan sweet priced at 80. And you know what, if I get 83, 84, cool, like that's fine. And I'll just wait for Marshall to drop 200K, right? And I'll jump on him then.
00:58:37
Vams (Fantasynut)
Um, or I'll wait for a, you know, a cherry to jump, like drop after a tough first five, six, seven weeks or whatever. And I'll jump on them. Or what about a gorn? Like, yes, he's a bit older, but he's priced at, what is it? One 12. What if I just get a one 10 out of him? Like what's wrong with that? So.
00:58:53
Vams (Fantasynut)
um or or you know what someone like a nan curve is like he's someone that um I think is interesting um you know not much talk about him you you look at what he averages when he gets 70-75% rut contests it's he potentially could be three four five points undervalued so I guess what I'm saying is like we typically yeah you know we have been conditioned certainly the right way to play the game it seems is to go hunting for value But I think if you're starved of those value options, rather than paying up for guys that might potentially drop a bucket load in cash, instead just go and buy someone and you just get what you pay for. And at least you're not going to lose money. So like what are you doing in the rocks?
00:59:35
Holmesy
i ah Yeah, look, on I'm completely lost at the moment. I've got Cherry and and Tom DeConin, but ah for all of the reasons you highlighted, I don't feel comfortable whatsoever. and I know Jaden kind of debunked the um previous year's scores versus opponents, but I agree with ah ah with a lot of what he said, but I think the rucks might be slightly different just because it's you it's ah it's a one-on-one battle. You're versing the same ruckman from the previous year. And so much of what the ruckman score is due to who they're versing as an opponent, but also the team that they're playing in terms of stoppages. So it's not always the case, but typically higher stoppage team means there's more access to hit outs. There's more access to you know tackles if you're a Tristan Cherry or possessions.
01:00:23
Holmesy
So I think there is a little bit to that. And look, if we look at Tristan Cherry, he's got Gorn, he's got Wits, he's got Grundy, and there's one other in his first six games where he he didn't score well against last year.
01:00:36
Holmesy
And if if you're paying a 115 for Cherry, you want to be able to put the captaincy on him.
01:00:39
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:00:40
Holmesy
And and personally, I know some other coaches are confident to do it, but You know, Cherry would be a VC only for me against Max Gorn.
01:00:47
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:00:48
Holmesy
I wouldn't be captaining him. I wouldn't be captaining him against Jared Witt. I probably wouldn't be captaining him against Brody Grundy. So, you know, why are you paying for him? If he if he comes out and goes 100 to start the year, you're not going to be
01:00:57
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yep.
01:01:01
Holmesy
yeah You're not going to be too upset, but at the same time, it's it's a value-based trading game. And if you can get in for 100K less than everyone else, then you're halfway there. and Admittedly, I still think he's a top two ruck. I love the man. He's ah he's a great player, but we've got to we've got to get these players at the right prices. And the whole idea of set and forget back in the day was that Grundy and Gorn were the two highest averaging players by a long way. I think outside of Goldie, you know no other ruckman really was pushing that 100 mark where You don't see that this year.
01:01:31
Holmesy
You've got Marshall, you've got coaches talking about starting Gorn, but you know, Gorn, is he going to be a top two ruck? Because I think at that price, you probably want him to be.
01:01:43
Holmesy
I don't think you're going to, you're not going to be trading him out until after his buy, if that's the case.
01:01:44
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:01:47
Holmesy
and Look, I worry he's a year older. They've got Tom Campbell. I'm not saying he's going to play, but they do have the option now to rest him if need be because clearly he was tired at the back end of last year. And I don't think Melbourne are going to be very good this year. And he was up and about early when Melbourne were good and and he dropped off the face of the earth when when Melbourne fell in a heap towards the end of the year. So I'm just nervous about paying up for a ruck. Ideally, I'd love it to be Roland Marshall if fit and healthy because he's done it for two years in a row and his run to start the year is incredible.
01:02:19
Vams (Fantasynut)
yeah Yeah.
01:02:19
Holmesy
I just have to go through the scores he had on his opponents last year, which I know isn't the right thing to do, but he starts with Riley O'Brien. He had a 150 against them last year. he He's got another few soft match ups where he went 130, 140.
01:02:31
Holmesy
You can just rattle them off. So I'm lost.
01:02:34
Vams (Fantasynut)
So um give let me ask this.
01:02:35
Holmesy
I don't...
01:02:36
Vams (Fantasynut)
So you're saying, let's just say Marshall, I'll put best case scenario to you. You're saying if Marshall plays with the ones in the preseason game for a half, whatever it is, they put the ones out there for, and he's named round one with no boy named, you you'd pay up for Marshall, would you?
01:02:58
Holmesy
I think so, yep. And it's ah probably a bit of a hot take. um and like And once again, paying up for Marshall or Cherry could burn you.
01:03:02
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:03:06
Holmesy
Absolutely. it might not you might They both might pick up where they left off and go 125 plus and be absolute smash pick captain options. I just think the maths of Cherry suggest that he might have a hard time to start early with the teams that he's playing against.
01:03:22
Holmesy
And that's why I'm a little bit worried. I'm not saying he's not going to be a top two ruck.
01:03:26
Holmesy
Whereas the math says that Marshall potentially has the has the better avenues to getting off to a hot start. Admittedly, he's been injured. So that's something to take into account.
01:03:26
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:03:36
Holmesy
um
01:03:37
Vams (Fantasynut)
So what do you think about with regards to ownership?
01:03:39
Vams (Fantasynut)
Because you did the podcast with the that fellow dominators who's got quite a remarkable record. And the very interesting thing that I took out of that podcast was how um what's he's someone that could go 120 to start the year and I just don't want to fade that, right? Like by the same token, it seemed to be Tristan Cherry, by the very highly owned, what is it? 50, 55% huge ownership. What if we're wrong and instead the of... like regardless of his supposed tough sort of run, what if he goes, what if he's the next Grundy and he just goes another step up and see he goes 114 to 124, right? And he is a captain option during that stretch. 55% ownership of the comp. Like, I guess my question to you is, do you factor in ownership at all into this? Or what do you think? Because Marshall right now, and again, like, that would go up if he was named solo rut granted, but you know, his ownership is not going to be that high.
01:04:55
Holmesy
Yeah, look, and it youre you you're spot on. Domanator said that he likes to look at ownership and and potentially go with the crowd and play at vanilla early on and back his trades. But then on the other end of the spectrum, you've got ah DT Lemon and you've got Mitch Casey from the Ballboys saying that they don't look at ownership at all and they just pick the best players that they believe are the best players. and Look, if, if Tristan Cherry came out and went 125, then absolutely it's going to hurt.
01:05:20
Holmesy
Um, but you just have to look at Selby in his winning years. He didn't start Tom Mitchell who was priced very highly who went 150, 140, 140 to start. And then admittedly he traded him in when, when he went 80, 80, but he was still able to, you know, to match it with everyone else.
01:05:29
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:05:35
Holmesy
So I think if Tristan Cherry priced at 115 comes out and does 115, he's not going to burn you. But if he goes.
01:05:42
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yup.
01:05:43
Holmesy
120, 125, then absolutely he will and 55% of the compa are ahead of me and my my the rest of my squad needs to be perfect to make sure I'm making up those points elsewhere. but i just I just keep coming back to that run.
01:05:57
Holmesy
But I mean, admittedly, what happens, you're banking on Wits being there who Cherry scored a 50 against last year and admittedly that was early and he got better later on, but what if Ned Moyles named and Wits isn't there?
01:05:57
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, you're right.
01:06:09
Holmesy
Or, you know, it's there's just so many things to think about and I'm just nowhere near nowhere near being content just yet,
01:06:13
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
Forward Line Considerations
01:06:17
Holmesy
but hopefully some of these games will not, no pun intended, a few things out.
01:06:17
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:06:21
Holmesy
Just just back to your Jordan sweet point though, That goes against everything that you're talking about with this fat pitch idea. Now, admittedly, you're saying that you're not looking for this R2 spot to be a knockout pick. You're just looking for for something until the dust settles. But with Jordan Sweet, he's not getting a new role. He's in the same role that he's in last year. So he's still at the same club.
01:06:43
Holmesy
you're really banking on natural progression and potentially maybe a game plan shift for Port Adelaide to play a bit more stoppage based and a bit more front half because they were very low stoppage last year. ah don't I don't see it with a Jordan suite personally.
01:06:58
Vams (Fantasynut)
I completely agree and to be clear, he's not someone that I would pick expecting a breakout. So I have heard Jordan Sweet mentioned as an option some folks are interested in as someone that could take another leg up. I agree with you. I'm not sure other than just he just he just improves or something. I don't know. I can't form a reason for why that's like clearly gonna occur. so So you're right, he does not fit any sort of sort of that that criteria I outlined earlier for that I think my thing with Jordan Sweet was he's an example of a guy that you could just pay for and hopefully just kind of get what you get rather than overpaying for someone because you don't know who else to pick because you can't find value there um and so that's like almost a pick out of you know out of necessity or I don't like the top end options I don't like there's no cheap options um I don't like any of the value options
01:07:53
Vams (Fantasynut)
Is there someone that I can, I feel at least somewhat comfortable giving me what I pay for? I mean, I'll give you a spicy um ruck idea. um Could you, um okay, for this, we'd probably need ah a little bit more of ah an idea on Sean Darcy's prognosis closer to the season.
01:08:11
Holmesy
I know what you're going to say.
01:08:12
Vams (Fantasynut)
Could you start a...
01:08:12
Holmesy
Nah, nah, nah, nah. Don't do it. No.
01:08:16
Vams (Fantasynut)
You're gonna have any of it. So no, okay, let me let me just outline it for the audience.
01:08:18
Holmesy
Look.
01:08:21
Vams (Fantasynut)
Would you be going, like, could you do like a Liam Reedy R2 with the idea of, ah once again, best 18 for the first, three of the first four rounds, and by round six, fingers crossed, and knowing Brad Scott, it won't turn out this way, you can at least get a, set ah like, potentially a a Sam DeConning that might be able to come into your ruck.
01:08:43
Vams (Fantasynut)
Not interested. Okay, well, what about even just staying up 450 for an R3?
01:08:45
Holmesy
Nah, it's, I'm not, I'm not. Look, if if ah if an R2 option presents that's value, ill I'll look at it, okay?
01:08:52
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
01:08:54
Holmesy
It's being the set and forget man. It's not something I've traditionally done, but I've never been this ah unsure of the rucks before.
01:09:02
Holmesy
But I don't think Liam Reedy is the guy. And what I what i do know as a Freo fan, they want Sean Darcy back into this side ASAP. Now, whether or not he can do that,
01:09:02
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yes.
01:09:12
Holmesy
is it is a different story. But as someone that started Luke Jackson last year with the Darcy, you know Darcy was not supposed to come back until round eight.
01:09:12
Vams (Fantasynut)
Gotcha.
01:09:18
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:09:21
Holmesy
They got him back by round five. like they They want him there.
01:09:24
Vams (Fantasynut)
yeah Gotcha.
01:09:25
Holmesy
They've got the ability to play him early on seriously reduced minutes. We're talking 60% each time on ground, knowing that they've got Jackson to flip in there when they need to.
01:09:36
Holmesy
And also, they can sub him out if they need to. um he's He's so integral to what they are going to do this year. So maybe they give him a bit more time, but Reedy is not a scorer. I don't think he's worth it. We we need him to pop, which admittedly, Frio have one of the best ruck runs to start. I would be very confident that Reedy would be able to get 30, 35, 40 hit outs against Sam De Koning in round one.
01:10:02
Holmesy
um But yeah, at this stage, it's not something I'm looking at, but I like that you're thinking about it.
01:10:08
Vams (Fantasynut)
ah tell this
01:10:08
Holmesy
And hey, we do, we do get to, we do get a, we get a firsthand look tomorrow night and he'll be lining up for Frio against the indigenous side.
01:10:11
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yep. Yep.
01:10:16
Holmesy
I'm not sure who's rucking for the indigenous side. So it might not be a, you know, a realistic look, but yeah, that the concept is that we're still unsure with these rucks and we need to keep our minds open at the moment.
01:10:22
Vams (Fantasynut)
yeah
01:10:25
Vams (Fantasynut)
Oh. Yeah, I mean, that's for sure. not That's for sure. I mean, ah to your point also with regards to light, if what if Cherry goes 125? I mean, amazingly, um Chris, the winner.
01:10:40
Vams (Fantasynut)
correct me if I'm wrong but he didn't have Max Gorn at all or like he didn't have Max Gorn for his entire like run where and Max Gorn was priced at 90 or something going into last year and he went at what 125 or some nonsense and he didn't have him but also like again to your point like we don't need to have like you can do okay like this guy won the highlights without having the highest averaging player who by the way was extreme values as well like during his insane run through the first half of the year. So yeah, you don't have to hit on absolutely everyone.
01:11:16
Holmesy
Yep, so to sum up the rocks, we both have absolutely no idea, but we're keen. We're keen for some ah some games to start happening over the next couple of weeks to hopefully shore up a few things.
01:11:26
Holmesy
Now, I'm mindful for time, but I'm really enjoying this chat, so I'm going to keep you a little bit longer.
01:11:28
Vams (Fantasynut)
No problem.
01:11:31
Holmesy
I know it's pretty late where you are, but let's just quickly touch on the forwards.
01:11:33
Vams (Fantasynut)
All good.
01:11:34
Holmesy
Now, we spoke about the value options that we think we have at the moment, or it's pretty obvious that we have in terms of McCray, Smith and Caleb Daniel. What I want to talk about is I think this year, especially, it's viable to play two rookies in the forward line if the options present because we we might get some high-end midfielders that get forward DPP throughout the year, which might change things. But at the moment, I think for the f1 to f6 we're really looking at ah a 100 down to potentially maybe a 90-ish come f6 which means that this year more than ever if we if we can get to rookies early to go 55 60 that's going to make up enough of a jump that you're not really losing too many points and you can look to upgrade later on down the track but
01:12:21
Holmesy
if we're not keen on O'Reilly Sanders, which we are, but what are some of these other mid-price options that we can look at if maybe we want to play an extra one so that we're only playing one rookie on the forward line? Or maybe if Sanders isn't that full-time midfielder that we project him to be because Bevo's Bevo, who else can we be looking at?
01:12:39
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, I guess, um okay, so in the mid price range, I think the two that, probably the two that I'm most interested in are probably either Liam Baker, um but perhaps even more so ah Jack Graham. I mean, neither have spent too much time in my team, so I don't want to over index on these two names, but You know, Liam Baker, he was this, you know, inverted commas art, Mr. Fixit at Richmond. I think it's very easy to go, oh, he's never done it before. That's true. But has he ever played this role where he is the guy in this role
Impact of Coaching Changes and New Players
01:13:14
Vams (Fantasynut)
before? And I would suggest the answer to that is no. So I think we can sometimes worry too much about this, like he's never done it before um without, you know,
01:13:25
Vams (Fantasynut)
try to project what he could do in a certain sort of situation or so certain scenario. So if if he's like this half back at West Coast and all the ball is going through him, you know, could he go 90 plus? Absolutely he could. You know, I think the thing that I've got to sort of be careful of is I've been conditioned for, you know, five, seven,
01:13:48
Vams (Fantasynut)
years plus you have this thing where it was like Brad Shepard chipped like kicking sideways to Shannon Hearn like and like that like these Eagles midfielders uh sorry these defenders that go sort of 85 95 ish by you know chipping a lot across the back line um we've got a new coach now I you know they may change that so I don't think we can assume what the Eagles defenders did or how they scored last year is going to necessarily translate into what happens this year but certainly he's someone I think is worth watching if you know if he's taking kick-ins etc I think again worth watching that the other one is Jack Graham
01:14:23
Vams (Fantasynut)
look I don't think he's necessarily a particularly good footballer but the reality is they they chased him so they wanted him to come there the Eagles midfield is very very thin you've got Yo that's injured you've got Dom Sheed that's now injured you know like it's it's a very very thin midfield they you know they've got obviously a bunch of kids as well but you know perhaps having a ah bigger ah sort of harder body around the ball he's quite a good tackler so I can see him you know potentially averaging you know five six potentially plus tackles a game and if he was in the midfield I just I probably would not be ki well you know I wouldn't be keen but as you alluded to in the forward line if he can go 80 to 85 like you know what is your price date he's priced at 65 in the forward line that's a good pick big and I think it's a good example of
01:15:13
Vams (Fantasynut)
how the position like like what position these guys are in like why it matters in the midfield going 65 to 85 is probably a bit of a like a nothing pick but in the forward line that's potentially you know someone or certainly you could ride to your buyers and potentially even longer so he's someone I'm i'm watching I think the tricky thing that I'm finding now with the myth sorry with the forwards is, in addition to those three locks that everyone has, and yes, I also like Riley Sanders, we're now starting to see the emergence of a of a much cheaper crop of guys coming through. We'll wait and see how many of them turn out to be viable picks come round one, but you know Dan Curtin today, in in the as I mentioned earlier in the in the sim, he yeah
01:15:55
Vams (Fantasynut)
apparently played very very well you've got ah Elijah Hewitt there so you know he's you know potentially getting midfield time for west coast Connor Stone Sam Davidson you've then got like you know Kakko you've got Hugo Garcia he's another one out at St Kilda he's potentially you know wait and see but third fourth mid and man he he was laying tackles like bloody prime Clayton Oliver like as as an ah as a skinny kid last year so i've seen some photos of him this preseason he looks like he's bulked up a little bit if he can if he can get anything like any sort of ball he's gonna go close to averaging 70 and you know he's not much not too much more expensive than some of these rookies like he's someone i think like in the right role you could put on field so
01:16:41
Vams (Fantasynut)
I think you're quite right. This seems to be the line where you could potentially play two rookies or someone like a Garcia. And we've got a couple of guys around that price point, whether it's a Silvani or a Rasmus or a Jack Hutchinson or a, you know, a Dewar potentially being on a wing. Like, again, let's, let's see how many of them actually turn out to be viable. It's still early, you know, in terms of still haven't seen the preseason games, et cetera. but if you can potentially have four of these guys as in two on the bench plus two on field that might be the way to go because you know as you've outlined on podcasts previously if you're in a line where you know f6 is averaging 80 to 85 and if you can get a rookie going 60 65 maybe that's being a little bit ambitious but you know
01:17:35
Vams (Fantasynut)
Humor me like that's the line to do it because you're just not losing that many points and you can just hold on to them for longer Whereas in the midfield you you want to be getting these mid rookies up as quickly as possible um In terms of the top ends of the forwards. I personally am not seeing or quite understanding the love for Jason Horne Francis um Like yes, he's talk that people are talking about midfield. like He played a lot of midfield last year. like like like It's not as if like he played no midfield last year and like ah now like he's moving into this big midfield role. like Could he get a little bit more? Yes, but um I think it may have even been Jayden, but someone on Twitter pointed out that no, I can't remember the exact number, but under Hinckley, so it's ah it's a fairly long, um yeah big sample size of of years,
01:18:27
Vams (Fantasynut)
No midfielder has gotten above like a certain percentage in terms of CBA, so he does like to spread it out a fair bit. so i mean Looking last year, Jason Horn-Francis got 54% last year. so Could that bump up to 60% this year? Maybe.
01:18:43
Vams (Fantasynut)
but you know I think I personally think that's like a good example of a pick where you're picking up on natural progression um and granted he's ah he's a star like he's a gun so he absolutely could take it to another level and be the guy that averages 95 but again coming back to a previous point I've made um you know he's price is priced at 90 So how much value really is there? And you've already got Rosie in the midfield. He's probably gonna go 100, 105. You've got Butters there, he's gonna go 105. You've still got Ollie Wines there. You've still got Will Drew there. So like how much midfield is he really gonna get and how much ball is there for him to really take that next level? um Again, not saying it's not gonna happen. I'm just not buying it. I'm just not sure how how much value there truly is there. So I'm not as keen on
01:19:34
Vams (Fantasynut)
on Horned Francis. Rankin is one I've kind of gone back and forth on. um I was initially pretty cold on it. I'm like, really? How much midfield time is he really going to get? Speaking to Crows fans, they think, and certainly they want him to be in there like 50% of the time. And so i he's one i I do like, and he's one I've had you know for in my in a lot of my teams.
01:20:00
Vams (Fantasynut)
But just lately, and if it turns out to be the case where we've got all these very cheap options, I'd probably lean more towards saying, you know what, put McCraut my F1 and then take yeah know take the punt on a lot of these cheaper options um ah you know at F6, and then pray. ah What do you think?
01:20:22
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it yeah there's one more point I want to hit on before we finish, but I suppose that comes back to, let's let's use Jack Graham as an example. If Jack Graham priced at 65, goes 85, so there's 20 points there.
01:20:35
Holmesy
Is that a better pick than an Isaac Rankin or a Jay Simkin or a Liam Baker that starts at 78 and finishes it at 90ish? Like, what's what's the better pick there?
01:20:44
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:20:45
Holmesy
Like, it's it's so hard to hard to determine, yes,
01:20:46
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:20:49
Holmesy
if they go bigger than that then obviously they're going to be a better pick but you know they might even go lower and it it kind of ties into your your point that you made on Twitter the other day that you went back and looked at all of the midfielders and no third midfielder has ever averaged over 100.
01:21:03
Holmesy
Now and that's based off CBAs and we know they're not everything and admittedly we don't need Rankin to go 100.
01:21:04
Vams (Fantasynut)
ah yeah
01:21:09
Holmesy
We don't need Gysymkin to go 100 but at the same time it does highlight that In the preseason, we we get stuck on this value when you think, if this happens and this happens and this happens, then this player has massive upside. But the reality is, unless you're in the the one or two rotation in the midfield, it is hard to score. It is not easy to average 100. It's not easy to average over 90. And that's where the these simpkins and rankings and these type of picks are risky.
Evaluating Player Roles and Performance
01:21:39
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, I completely agree. And then like I think the other thing with someone like Rankin, let's just say his midfield um you know time is variable from game to game, which if gun to my head, I think that's how it will probably play out.
01:21:53
Vams (Fantasynut)
I think there'll be some games where he's 50, 60% of the time in there, other times where he might be 30%. That's what happened last year. And I think it might happen again this year, but let's see.
01:22:04
Vams (Fantasynut)
And then you ask the question, okay, someone like Rankin is priced at,
01:22:07
Holmesy
Yeah, just just on that, just on that Vams.
01:22:08
Vams (Fantasynut)
you know Yep. Yep.
01:22:10
Holmesy
Just on that, sorry. So Xavier Ellis, who we love, not the best at fantasy, but one of the best footy minds out there.
01:22:20
Holmesy
hey was He was on Selby's podcast, the Midfielder podcast, just gone. And and he outlayed that point exactly. He said,
01:22:20
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:22:27
Vams (Fantasynut)
Right.
01:22:28
Holmesy
You know, there there are going to be games where he's going to get midfield time, but there also is going to be games where he's lining it up in the forward line and he's predominantly forward.
01:22:34
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yes.
01:22:36
Holmesy
And he could be having a game where he's kicking five goals from five touches if he's just playing as a forward, which isn't necessarily going to equate to a ah big fantasy average.
01:22:41
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yes.
01:22:45
Holmesy
So absolutely, I think it could be up and down. But at the same time, I like Rankin, I'm big on him. I think at this stage, it's a draft option for me, but I can absolutely see a world where he gets 50% plus CBAs because he's their most dynamic midfielder and and almost their best player.
01:23:00
Holmesy
And we just need that career breakout, but you are kind of banking on a bit of natural progression because he did have midfield time last year.
01:23:00
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:23:06
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah, exactly. And preseason last year, there was the the exact same talk with regards to um him moving into the midfield, et cetera. And, you know, I'd liken it to the my Tom DeConning point earlier, which is like, okay, that was his midfield, you know, yeah. Granted, the Crows had some injuries in the forward line.
01:23:27
Vams (Fantasynut)
You know, we've now got to fit till thought. We've now, you know, potentially Dan Curtin. We've got Neil Bullen now down there as well. Now these guys are not ranking, like don't get me wrong. um You know, maybe Rochelle gets a little bit better. So I guess my point is,
01:23:42
Vams (Fantasynut)
does it ah allow for them to to be a little bit more, um have a little bit more leeway with regards to pushing him into the midfield. But look I think with us fantasy nerds, we put our goggles on and we' we're all about the midfield. But man, a guy that can kick two goals a game, that's pretty bloody valuable as well. so like you know like Or more. um And so you know what's best for the crows might not yeah it might not necessarily translate for fantasy. That's that's the reality, right?
Conclusion and Social Media Updates
01:24:10
Holmesy
100% mate. Thank you so much for jumping on our 24 currently. I always love chatting to you and and picking your brain. you You think about the game differently, which is which is really good. You know, we talk about the echo chamber in AFL fantasy and the content creators, but you've got to have the you' got to have the balls to think about it differently. and and sometimes go a bit different to the crowd. you know How often do we see teams up near the top that have i' got these players in there that we aren't talking about as a community? And it's it's just about picking the right one. So thank you so much for jumping on. Where can the where can the listeners find you because your Twitter feed blows up and it's ah it's a very good read.
01:24:48
Vams (Fantasynut)
I appreciate that, mate. It's been a great chat as always. So yeah, you can find me at Twitter at fantasy nut to underscore AFL. Yep. Just like to spit out some thoughts there. So come find me and let's chat.
01:25:02
Holmesy
Perfect. Just make sure when you're on there and he tries to convince you to pick Wayne Miller, that we don't do it. Although admittedly, this will be the year that he breaks out and goes 85, 90 and makes us look stupid.
01:25:10
Vams (Fantasynut)
Yeah.
01:25:13
Holmesy
But that's going to wrap us up, guys. As always, make sure you're following us on X at Pod Pod AFL. I'm at Holmes is Heroes. And make sure you're subscribed to us on Spotify, Apple Podcast or wherever you listen to your content.
01:25:27
Holmesy
I'm not sure when we'll be back ah this current week. Unfortunately, work commitments mean I'm away on school camp, which means we're going to have a ah podcast done, but I'm not sure when it'll be. So stay tuned for that. But we'll be back. Preseason games are starting live fully this week. Super exciting. So enjoy and yeah, we'll be back soon. Bye.