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Mid Price Mayhem | Fix it Trades | Strategy Chat with DT Lemon #PODPOD
4k Plays7 days ago
The PODPOD panel has gone AWOL… but never fear, Holmesy has stepped up and recruited one of the best in the business DT Lemon to have you covered for this week!
On this episode, Holmesy and Lemon deep dive on all of the relevant topics ahead of round 2. They discuss their results, talk about their trading philosophies, talk about the relevant trade in rookie options, rank trade out priorities as well as answer a stack of listener questions! Round 2 trades are such a critical time of the season to remove the dead weight from your team and the PODPOD is here to help you make those decisions!
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Transcript
Introduction and Solo Hosting
00:00:19
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Monday, 24th of March. Look, we have a very bare panel today.
Guest Introduction and Strategy Discussion
00:00:30
Holmesy
I'm the last one standing of the Pod Pod panel members. We've had Louis, despite a good start, he's gone AWOL. Harmi's off travelling Thailand after his Garcia pick. And Sam, well, I don't know where Sam's gone, but...
00:00:43
Holmesy
i've gone I've gone big. We are in desperate need of a man who knows what he's doing at this time of year in terms of building team value and and knowing where our trades need to go. So I've gone to another content creator, DT Lemon.
00:00:56
Holmesy
You all know him as the value king. Thanks for jumping on at short notice, mate. How are you going?
00:01:02
DT Lemon
Yeah, thanks for having me, mate. And ah yeah, thanks for the the late call up. It's always a bittersweet when you send me a message because I think, oh yeah that'd be nice to chat. But then I realized that I can't listen back to it, ah you know, tomorrow or the day after. So just one less
Building Team Value in AFL Fantasy
00:01:15
DT Lemon
pod to listen to. But yeah, I'm looking forward to chatting, mate. It's a really pivotal time of the year. So I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on a few of these players we're going to be talking about.
00:01:23
Holmesy
Yeah, ditto. I know you had a ah pretty decent week one, but just like myself, with we haven't had the starts that we necessarily wanted to, but we we feel like our teams aren't in too bad of shape outside of of one or two players.
00:01:35
DT Lemon
Thank
00:01:36
Holmesy
But why don't just give us an update? We'll get into scores and ranks in a bit, but how are you feeling about your team and and being kind of in these ranks with me that you're not exactly used to?
00:01:47
DT Lemon
Yeah, I think it's a really tricky year. You know, we're we're seeing, um you know, there's so many great coaches out there. There's a lot of people switched on and and a lot of these picks that I think previously maybe slid under the radar a little bit. I think people are hot on them. um The rookies people are hot on. We're getting great info this year. So I think it is really tough. And and you can see that in the spread of points, you know, the the difference between The 100th ranked coach and the 10,000th ranked coach is actually not that much, particularly when you take into account maybe ah an injury or a bad captain or whatever it is. There's actually not that many points between these positions. So yeah, this time of year, i you know i like to just sort of...
00:02:24
DT Lemon
concentrate on the team value concentrate on just improving your team don't get too worried about where you're sitting because it just takes one or two good weeks and you'll be you know you'll be jumping up the rankings and you'll be feeling way better about your team so i'm just hoping that those those one or two weeks are a bit closer for me rather than a bit further away but we'll we'll keep chipping away hey
00:02:43
Holmesy
Yeah, look, 100% you've nailed that. We just had to look at the week just gone. Tom Stewart, I mean, anyone as a Tom Stewart owner, you know, yes, it hurt them and they're going to lose a fair bit of cash, but the best 18 kind of um hid that for them a little bit. They could wear it and and that meant that their their ranking drop wasn't as serious as it would be if if that was in round five or six when we're back to to best 22. So there's still plenty of time to make up and Look, as long as you've got your cash gen going in the right move ah in the right direction, then you, know you like myself, that that the weeks that we've made up the most ground is if we're able to build that cash and then we can get you know that rookie off earlier or or get that mid-price that turns into a premium and that and that way you're getting sort of 50 to 100 points each week, which at the moment is the difference in 10,000 ranks.
00:03:30
DT Lemon
Yeah, exactly. that's it's it's a really I love always doing that, just checking where the top team is, checking where the 100th ranked team is, and just have a look at how many points behind you are. Because yeah you know sometimes that's just a captain pick. It's just a maybe a premium. For me, it was a premium. We got subbed off this week. there's you know You can find 30, 40, 50 points, and you realize your ranking actually doesn't look that bad anymore. Yeah.
00:03:51
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's a good time of year because, you know, anyone's still a chance to to win the whole thing. Anyone's still a chance to come top 100. You know, there's so many weeks left, so many trades left. We've got so much fantasy football to be played. So, yeah, don't freak out, everyone.
Player Performance Evaluations
00:04:05
Holmesy
That's it. It's all about the grind and and fixing up some of these failed picks, which I'm sure we're going to get to later on in this podcast, Lemon. But why don't you just give us a an update on your your score for the week and where you're ranked at the moment?
00:04:19
DT Lemon
Yeah, so i scored a 1795 this week, um which was a bit of a drop-off. So um yeah, slipped a bit in the rankings. I'm now ranked around 8500. um but the team value is looking okay um so 19.25 it's it's not massive but um i'm happy with sort of some of the players i've got on my team um so yeah that's sort of how the team's sitting um in terms of my stato pick of the week you want me to just roll straight into that or let's do it so yeah i guess the stato pick for me and i think probably a lot of people is the rosy
00:04:44
Holmesy
Just go on. Yep. Perfect.
00:04:52
DT Lemon
score there so 145 times two I think particularly early days in those first I like to say five six weeks until you do that first upgrade captains are so so important um and to get a predictable big score from Rosie um against Richmond you know i think that was great I was there in person and it was just beautiful seeing seeing him bob up you know even when he rested forward he kicked a few goals um that was just exactly what you want from your captain And yeah, Dossie pick of the week.
00:05:21
DT Lemon
The other end of the spectrum, I just don't know what is going on with this guy and what's going on with Carlton. It's um Ollie Hollands. he He has the role. that This is the problem with me. He has the role and he just looks terrible in it. He he doesn't want the footy. He's running away from the ball.
00:05:38
DT Lemon
Even when he's in a good position, it it looks like he's just telling them to kick long, kick long, kick long. And and that's what Carlton were doing. And they just, oh, they look horrible. So it was a terrible pick. It's a terrible pick to watch.
00:05:51
DT Lemon
I'm just shocked that this guy's forgotten how to football.
00:05:56
Holmesy
Yeah, I think the the tough thing with Carlton is at the moment they're just struggling so much as a football club. And as ah as a non-owner, I actually watched him quite closely. at Anytime there's ah a highly owned player that I don't have, I kind of watch. And he's actually playing some good football. Like he was in charge of Dylan Moore on the weekend and Dylan Moore had a...
00:06:14
Holmesy
a very quiet game for his standards. So he's actually defending quite well, but maybe, maybe that's gassing him out and he's not as
Cash Generation and Trades
00:06:21
Holmesy
interested in getting the ball on, on transition at the moment. And and that's just leading to these pretty poor fantasy score. So yeah, and unfortunately that one's not, not paying off at the moment. Is he a pretty urgent trade out for you this week?
00:06:33
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's it feels bittersweet because you know he's ticking every box. He's in the right role. i don't think there's much competition for that role. i just, yeah, I think you just have to trade that. If he's not going to sit for the chip kick, he's not going to demand the footy. um you know If he's going to be playing this defensive, he was just following more around. Even when Carlton had the ball, he was following him around. So if that's the way he's going to play football, I think you just have to jump off because at the moment, I'd be better off fielding a rookie on field. So that's that's the big problem.
00:07:03
Holmesy
Yep, I'd agree with that. Although it does have, what, the dogs this week. So is that ah that's a pretty pretty nice matchup. But no, not talking you into keeping him. He's definitely a ah trade out at this stage for some of the rookies we have named.
00:07:13
DT Lemon
Please don't.
00:07:16
Holmesy
I had an 18-32 this week, which had me move up about 10,000 spots just inside 17K. So moving in the right direction. ah But the pleasing thing, team value of 19.41 million. So um that's looking pretty strong at the moment, which I'm happy with. I mean, I took the punt on the Taylors and those picks early, which got me some cash, but meant my points were were down a little bit. So hoping that can pay off um at some time in the near future. My Stato pick of the week,
00:07:45
Holmesy
Jordan Dawson now didn't go as large as Connor Rosey, but when you've got Connor Rosey as well, that's ah not a bad thing. I was very happy to lock away that 134 and he just looks like a man on a mission this year. Adelaide are looking very good, albeit in two pretty soft matchups to start, but...
00:08:02
Holmesy
Can't knock him starting the year at 130 and still having some good matchups to come over the next couple of weeks. So Jordan Dawson, very happy with that. My dossie pick of the week. And this this wasn't my worst player by any means.
00:08:16
Holmesy
um And he got winded. So 77 in a tough tag game. I'm not too unhappy with it, but I'm just putting him on notice. Max Holmes, I expect better. um when he was in Messiah for most of the year, but unfortunately had to had to go down to free up a bit of cash.
00:08:31
Holmesy
He'll bounce back. Hopefully, Baz is back this week and um he gets a bit of the attention instead of him. But Max Holmes, yeah, on notice. you He'll bounce back. Lemon, we're going to talk a bit about our trades this week because I'm interested in your philosophies because that's showing us what you're looking to do. So what were your two trades last week and what we what were you trying to do with those trades?
00:08:53
DT Lemon
Yeah, so, yeah I mean, trades at this time of the year are so, so important. You know, if you make a good trade, you get, you know, 20-odd weeks of of that paying back. So I think it's, um yeah, really helps to have some good trades this time of the year.
00:09:05
DT Lemon
The first one for me was a fix-up of Hasty to Lindsay. So, um yeah, I just really liked Hasty, but you can't can't have that guy sitting on your bench doing nothing for you. And obviously, Lindsay looks like a ah real gem for us. so I was pretty happy to bring him in.
00:09:19
DT Lemon
um And then the second trade got a little bit unlucky. So Sanders um out of the team to Rankin was looking great at three quarter time until they subbed out Rankin. And then, ah yeah, I think I gained a point from that trade.
00:09:33
DT Lemon
And I'm pretty sure the Crows just feasted in that last quarter. So that could have been ah big 30, 40, 50 point quarter from Rankin. And I'd be a lot happier um this week. So little bit unlucky there, but um altogether, I'm and pretty happy with Rankin. You know, the reason I got him was because I can just sort of lock him lock him away and not have to worry about trading him in a few weeks. And I think um like a lot of people, I'm looking at my team and I'm going, there's a lot of guys I need to trade here.
00:09:59
DT Lemon
um There's a lot of guys that would be peaking in cash in two, three, four weeks time and and you can't trade them all. So Rankin for me, at least I'm i'm comfortable keeping him a little bit longer.
00:10:09
Holmesy
Yep, absolutely was the right trade to make, especially now with Perryman and Hollands and some of these others that are more urgent um getting out of Sanders, who just doesn't have the role at the moment, um is definitely a good thing. Yeah, he saved his score two weeks in a row to average 70, which isn't the worst in the world, but you know If he has a tough game and and puts up a 40 or a 50, then you're in serious strife. So seriously rate that. I do want to ask you, because it was a bit of ah a hot topic in our DMs over the weekend, did you ever consider trading out Baz with that news?
00:10:41
DT Lemon
No, not at all, really. So um I think with a guy like Baz, you've got to look at how much cash is on his head. um You know, it was late news as well. So to me, that was they were giving him every opportunity to get up for the game.
00:10:54
DT Lemon
um And we just didn't have enough information. You know, I think if he had a scan and it looked really bad, it would have come out a bit earlier. He would have been out for a few weeks, but all the chat was... oh, it's one week, see how he goes, or two weeks, maybe max.
00:11:07
DT Lemon
um And ah the big problem with him is he's just so so much value. you know He might still have 30, 40 points of value on his head. um you know You have to bring that in when that when that comes in. And and i'm just I don't like banking a trade in the future, particularly when there's really important trades to be made. I don't like banking that I have to bring in Bazlenka um I'd much rather hold him through best 18, copper 60 or whatever for him. And then um just, at least I know he's going to be in my team when he when he plays again.
00:11:37
Holmesy
Yeah, that's it. and I mean, I'll admit, i I definitely looked at it on the Friday night just to see what potential options there could be. Knowing it's Geelong, though, I mean, everyone's saying, oh, you know, Geelong, you know, how dare they they? They named it up on Friday. They had it all week. But it kind of sounds like they were giving him every opportunity to play.
00:11:56
Holmesy
And then come captain's run, he was no good. But that kind of shows that, you know, he's probably not too far away. Yeah, we might not get him this week, but surely it's the the week after and and then you've, you know,
00:12:08
Holmesy
If you've got injuries and you can't get him back in, then it'd be an absolute nightmare. He's going to go up by 80, 90K on his next next game potentially, and then you're you're in a bit of strife. So yeah, very, very good hold there. I know some good coaches traded him out, which is fair enough.
00:12:21
Holmesy
um They're just going to to look to bring him back in when he's available. My trades were essentially just fixing up my mistakes from round one. that I went Taylor to SDK.
00:12:31
Holmesy
I don't hate the Taylor trade. Like we took a gamble. It could have paid off. you know It paid off enough to make some coin. So fixing him to SDK, made a bit of money there and and got on SDK's price rise. Now, if he goes back to fullback this week, then maybe the cash wasn't worth it. But I think with the information we had at the time off that Freo game, um he was a bit of a no-brainer. And then Peatling down to Nevitt, I think, was a a very good trade. I was just looking to...
00:12:56
Holmesy
you know That mid-pricer spotter was there to make cash and Pete Ling clearly wasn't going to make any cash despite the role that he had and Nevet played really well. He's got that inside mid role at Geelong sewn up at least for the next couple of games, you'd think.
00:13:10
Holmesy
um And yeah, hey he made cash, he scored well and I think he's going to be a good pick for me.
00:13:16
DT Lemon
Yeah, I love those trades, mate. I think that's great. did you In terms of the Taylor one, like if you didn't start Taylor, would you have started SDK? Was that the was that the the trade-off or was there other guys that would have been in that spot?
00:13:28
Holmesy
I think I needed to find a little bit more cash. So it was going to be an SDK, but then it would have it would have played around with a few other things in my side. And hindsight's 20-20. If it was never instead of Peatling to begin with, then I've got money for SDK.
00:13:41
Holmesy
I've also got money for Holmes to be Nassai or whoever I needed it to be.
00:13:42
DT Lemon
Yeah.
00:13:46
Holmesy
and But that's that's fantasy. yet It's just a couple of picks here and there and and you find yourself behind.
Rookies and Trading Strategies
00:13:51
Holmesy
It goes your way or it doesn't. So that just is what it is. Let's go over the Pod Pod Challenge quickly now. We had two coaches in the top 100 last week and we've moved up now to seven coaches, which is really good to see. So we've got two coaches in the top 20. We've got Daryl's Dodgers and Shuckers, good friend of the show, currently ranked 13th and Daryl's ranked 9th. So that's That's really good to see. And then we've got a few others, Sean, Patrick, Sam, Jack, Joel, all well entrenched in the top 100.
00:14:20
Holmesy
one hundred So, you know, let's get those numbers up, but off to a really good start looking at those sides. They've they've got good structures in place. They don't look like teams that are just up the rankings because they've you know They've started four red dots in round one to make sure they get the the good rookies on on field and all that kind of stuff. So really, really exciting times for those coaches. They can make some of the moves that we can't as we're fixing our duds and and they're going to get further ahead, which is really good to see. And just a reminder that the winner of the Pod Pod Challenge will receive a custom AFL Fantasy ring from the guys over at Super Coach Champion.
00:14:55
Holmesy
All right, Lemon, let's discuss the hot topics for the week. And I've got the best man for the job here in terms of our trading. So how do we decide this week what's the biggest importance for our trades, whether it be um getting on some of the rookies that we've missed or even some that have just popped their head up like a closey, which we'll get into later.
00:15:13
Holmesy
Are we looking to desperately get off these failed mis mid prices that are not going to make us too much more cash or even a perimen that's going to bleed cash? Or are we looking for some upgrades to get up to these underpriced premiums a la Tom Powell, Finn Callaghan, these types?
00:15:31
DT Lemon
Yeah, I mean, that is ah that's the massive question. and And ideally, we'd be doing all of these things. So ideally, you're if you're in a position, identify those rookies that um you know ah rookies and mid-prices that ah have massive, massive value that you can also get the points on field. I think that's crucial.
00:15:48
DT Lemon
um you know Some of the cheaper rookies who might maybe be putting up 50s and 60s, you know A lot of teams that might not have even counted for you in these these best 18 rounds. So I think those guys can you know maybe be a bit off the priority list, but some of these rookies that putting up fieldable scores, the mid prices that are putting up fieldable scores and with like 20, 30 points of value,
00:16:09
DT Lemon
um I think they're the guys that we've sort of got to be bringing in here because you see some of these guys, um you know, they really get away from you. If you if you miss a week or two, um they can go up massively. I think Lindsay went up 80K or something this week. You know, these guys, that's that's eight points a week that you're you're giving up. It's it's huge.
00:16:28
DT Lemon
um So that's the trick. it's just It's really just trying to find that balance, I think, um you know, trying to get rid of the guys that are ah performing not as well. And hopefully that lines up with these other guys that add value, I think. um What's your take on this, Holmesy?
00:16:45
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it's right's it's so tough. And I suppose with the best 18, I'm still trying to learn as well. Like the the teams that had some of these players on field this week, like think, you know, Stewart, Treanor, some of these other, Garcia, like these teams were still able to get away with these scores in a best 18 system as long as they had their top end guys in the right spots.
00:17:08
Holmesy
The thing I'm sort of toying with is, and we spoke about this pre-pod, is i'm I'm looking at sort of a mini restructure to make sure I get Lindsay on the field because in a best 18 system, he's he's very valuable to have on. If he doesn't get the pop score, then he might not make your best 18. But at the same time, if he's capable of going 80-90, then he's he's super valuable. But Can we get tricked and and get too many of these guys on field in a best 18 system and then come round five when it goes back to best 22?
00:17:34
Holmesy
As Zave likes to say, if the tide goes out, are we going to be swimming naked or do you think it's a play?
00:17:41
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's it's really a really tricky one. And I think that's always where you've got to be looking a week or two ahead and looking at these guys, you know, who who might pop that I need to bring in. And if if there's a guy that you maybe debuts this week or maybe he's just played one game and he's got another matchup here, am I going to have to bring him in next week? And if so, you know, i can't ah can't really do another downgrade next week. I want to try and keep an upgrade downgrade if if possible. So, yeah.
00:18:07
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's really tricky. I think you know probably can take a one-week hit for me. um Depending on how many guys you have on the buy this week, you might only have one or two on the buy. You might have enough scores to cover that.
00:18:18
DT Lemon
So I think there's nothing wrong with taking a hit to make sure you bring in these cash generators, these guys with huge value. theoretically they should be putting up fieldable scores as well you know even like lindsey yeah he's not guaranteed to put up an 80 but if he's got a 50 60 70 chance of putting up an 80 you know that's that's worth something to your team i think that's going to be a best 18 score on everyone's team so um for me getting a guy like that on field's great um you get the points you get the cash gen and yeah it might mean that you've got a bit of cash in the bank next uh over over this week maybe you can't do a full upgrade somewhere else but
00:18:51
DT Lemon
you know, that cash, as long as you use that cash by round five, I think that's going to be really crucial. You want be, don't want to be coming to round five and you get an injury and all of a sudden you've got 500K on your, on your bench. I think that you really need to be trying to upgrade at least, at least a few times between now and round five when we, you know, we lose the best 18, all of sudden you're taking those rookie scores.
00:19:11
Holmesy
So I think it's probably important to to kind of put these rookies into three categories. And I'll admit now that Levi and Lindsay are a little bit higher owned. It's, yeah, let's just talk about those two first. So both of them are pretty similar. I think um Lindsay's priced at 45 and Ashcroft's priced at 44.
00:19:31
Holmesy
Is that too much to pay for these rookies now? Or do you think there's still time and and they're cheap enough that you you need to jump on if if you don't have them?
00:19:41
DT Lemon
I think this is probably the last week where they're going to be, you know, enough value. I think both of those guys from what we've seen, they're probably 70 plus kind of guys. um The vest is probably the big concern.
00:19:54
DT Lemon
ah don't know. i can't see either of them having the vest in the short term, but at some point they might get a vest. It's going to halt their cash gen and you're probably going trade them. So I think for me, you know, this week is probably the last week where they're going to be really good value.
00:20:09
DT Lemon
um i'd be I'd be trying to bring in, yeah, if you don't have one of them, I'd be trying to fix that up this week because I think after after this week, you know they'll both be priced in the 50s.
00:20:19
DT Lemon
Again, there's a bit of a vest risk sometimes. um I don't want to be really shopping in that range, I think.
00:20:26
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I think Lindsay's probably the one. I mean, Levi was pretty highly owned from round one anyway. A lot of people still got on him and and he was the number one sort of trading option last week. And if he couldn't make a Lindsay work, then maybe some other coaches got stuck. But...
00:20:42
Holmesy
I think Melbourne have a pretty good run. They're not looking great. and And Lindsay's playing that sort of halfback wing role where there's just ball to be had. So I think Lindsay definitely, I ah don't think it's too late. I mean, I paid not as much, but a similar price last week for a Nevit.
00:20:56
Holmesy
And we're going to talk about those players now, which is still an option. So yeah, I think Lindsay needs to to be a serious consideration if you don't have him. Let's talk about Nevit and Nod now once again. So this is our other category of some, I'm going to call them rookies, but they're not really rookies.
00:21:10
Holmesy
But still, they're they're quite young in their AFL careers. You've got Nevit and Nod who are both priced around the same. So I think they're both priced, yeah, Nevit at 56 and Nod at 54. Do you think it's too late for these two players now? I mean, Nevit looked great, but it's still Geelong. We don't know how that role is going to look. and And Nod has gone back to a wing. There was no CBAs, maybe one CBA for this game.
00:21:32
Holmesy
Are they too late now or you're you're happy to jump on those still?
00:21:37
DT Lemon
I think they're both options. um I've been big on both of these guys all year. So i I started both of them and I basically looked at them as sort of a high priced rookie. So um just with a bit more job security, a bit more scoring potential. And I think we've sort of seen that now, you know, they're, you know, they're sort of maybe seventies, eighties plus guys, which is really great.
00:21:56
DT Lemon
um Yeah. I think you probably can still do that. um But again, it's It's a tricky one because they're they're both, I think Nod, his role might change when they get Hayden Young back.
00:22:08
DT Lemon
never I don't think there's anyone really to come into that that midfield, but he's also not, you know, he has it's Geelong in the end. You know, we we never really know what happens in that Geelong midfield.
00:22:19
DT Lemon
I think he looks good, but um it's it's not me who's picking the team and and deciding who gets the midfield minutes. So ah think you probably can do it. Yeah. But yeah, it's it's again, you've really got to jump on these guys. You can't be missing um three price rises. They both had two now.
00:22:36
DT Lemon
um If you're going to jump, ah you really have to jump this week. um And if not, you might just have to miss one of these guys. And there's nothing wrong with that. ah There's plenty of other value options out there. So they don't have to be the guys you bring in.
00:22:47
Holmesy
Beautiful. So let's talk about some of these value rookies now. So they're all similarly similarly priced and they've all got negative break-even. So we've got Hall, Henderson, O'Sullivan and Closie that have all either played a couple of games now and have ah cemented themselves in that side or Closie who's just come onto our radars this week as the sub who scored a 90 off very limited game time.
00:23:12
Holmesy
Would you prefer to go down to some of these players rather than ah an evident nod, knowing that the bar's a lot lower for these guys to make the same amount of cash over the next sort of three, four, five weeks?
00:23:24
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's a really tricky one because, yeah, they you know they're sort of priced 20 points cheaper. But I think ah a few of these guys, you'd expect them to probably score 20 points less as well. So it it kind of um cancels out there. I think, to me, when you're looking at this downgrade, you know a lot of these guys are going to be a downgrade option.
00:23:41
DT Lemon
um Maybe you're fixing up a rookie somewhere and you've got a bit of cash in the bank. But a lot of the time, it might be a failed mid-price of down. um I think if you can afford the more expensive guys, I'd probably put the cash into them because you're going to get the extra points on field.
00:23:55
DT Lemon
Um, And they should still make a similar amount of cash, I think. But if you need to, I think a few of these cheaper guys are definitely good options. And it just if that frees up the cash so you you enjoy, you really like the other side of the trade, I think there's nothing wrong with that.
00:24:10
DT Lemon
um Just got to be a bit careful because some of these other guys, job security is maybe a little bit shakier. Roll security is a little bit shakier. Maybe they're a little bit closer to a vest or you know closer to being dropped out of the side. It's very tricky, particularly for the...
00:24:23
DT Lemon
the geelong guys again you know geelong it's it's an impossible read sometimes with their team so any of those that like stand out to you homesy any any that you're liking
00:24:33
Holmesy
Look, I mean, it's hard to not sit up and notice closely who's gone 90 off, you know, 57% time on ground. But yeah, the Geelong read just always scares me. He clearly wasn't in their plans until Baz was a laid out. And then he's come in as sub on any other day. There's not an injury and and he comes on for a 20 or a 30 and we're not even talking about it. So that's clearly a job security risk.
00:24:56
Holmesy
um O'Sullivan, I know Lou's really big on O'Sullivan. We haven't talked about it, but there's a ah lot of rain forecast for the game against Brisbane on the weekend, which isn't really going to be good for our our lockdown defenders. But he you know he looked good when Stuart went down.
00:25:12
Holmesy
you know it wouldn't surprise me if he can sort of you know average 55, 60. given the right conditions. So he's he's interesting in a line where we're we're struggling for value options in the defense. We've seen, you know, trainer back to earth this week. We've seen Zach Reid not go very well and and his job security, as well as Priors, is going to be coming into question with Essendon not really performing. So, yeah, I do like these options. that um I suppose I want to give you a question without notice because I know last week you fixed up Hastie, who was a red dot.
00:25:40
Holmesy
if coaches weren't able to fix up hasty because they were doing other things and then it's compounded this week with a Camparelli getting dropped or maybe a trainer or a Zachary, are you someone to to just jump off and fix these red dots immediately?
Managing Red Dot Players
00:25:53
Holmesy
Or do you think, you know, we need to hold a couple of them and do some more important things on field with these failed mid-pricers?
00:26:01
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's a really tricky one because I think, yeah, Hastie, there'll be a lot of coaches who still have him. Camparelli, you know, its I'm not exactly sure how many weeks he's going to get in that best 22. And then you've even got like the ah North Melbourne, um O'Sullivan, you know, he's had a few quieter games. I wouldn't be surprised if they put him in a vest.
00:26:20
DT Lemon
um you know, they they might even consider dropping him to the VFL just to get some, some game time and some, you know, get the ball in his hands a little bit more. So we've got to be really careful about this, this bench hygiene.
00:26:32
DT Lemon
um I think if you've got one, one or two red dots, um you you know, I'd be trying to trade them out, but I wouldn't, you know I'd be sort of comparing it. what What else can you do? Can you get the value elsewhere? If you're maybe jumping on one of these mid prices or underpriced premiums that you like, and you think there's 10, 20 points of value there, then maybe you can afford to hold a red dot. But if you're just doing a sort of sideways trade, um maybe you're fixing up someone on a bit of a sort of emotional decision that you just, you're sick of them. You want them out of your team.
00:26:59
DT Lemon
That's when I'd probably prefer to just bank these these guys that have cash to make. you know even if these guys fail, they're going to make 30, 40K in the first week. um If they play two or three games, all of a sudden they've made 100, 150K and you're flying. So...
00:27:14
DT Lemon
So yeah, I generally try and avoid the red dots um as much as possible. But then then again, St. Kilda might have a few injuries, Hasty might come back and all of a sudden he's making cash again. So we've got to be really careful about you know these red dots. Are they permanent red dots? Are they one or two week red dots?
00:27:32
DT Lemon
um you know If we can guess that they're going to come back into the side, then maybe you can hold them and just you know bank on a few injuries that these guys come back to life.
00:27:40
Holmesy
Yeah, i mean, that was going to be my point, but you've kind of nailed it. Like, let's say this week, a hypothetical situation, Camporelli's dropped and you trade him to Closi. And then next week, Closi's dropped and Campo comes back in.
00:27:53
Holmesy
Like, that's where it gets tricky.
00:27:54
DT Lemon
Yep.
00:27:56
Holmesy
You've burnt a trade on that. Yes, you've made some coin for one week, but is it enough to justify a trade? I suppose you just need to be really careful. like The Hasties really good example. They've had Hunter Clark and Stocker go down with injury this week.
00:28:09
Holmesy
Does he come back in? Maybe, maybe not. um so yeah i've I've traditionally held these red dots because I've ah' been caught in trouble where i've I've done exactly that, where I trade a red dot to a green dot and then it just gets reversed the next week and you look like a bit of an idiot. so You don't want two of too many of them to pile up. It is good to have some loop options, but You've got to be real careful because, yeah, it's rookie roulette for a reason and what's not to say that it's not just going to flip the next week.
00:28:37
DT Lemon
Yeah, exactly. And you know I think you know now we've seen a lot of people we be running board at R3. So there's a lot of people who probably have that red dot. um you know I think once you get to sort of two or three across across your bench, you've only got five guys on the bench making cash.
00:28:53
DT Lemon
And that's generally where you get your cash for upgrades. So this time of year, you know no one has enough cash to make their upgrades yet. So we've got to make sure that we're we're still building that. We're building that bench cash in particular because, yeah, in four or five weeks time, you're going to be looking at doing an upgrade and going to looking at your bench and you're saying, I've got nothing here or I can get 100K. But what's what's that really going to do? So, yeah, some of these guys and you know not all of them, but some of these guys might make 200, 300K.
00:29:19
DT Lemon
And that's just huge when you can cash that in. That's, you know, 20, 30 points a week and you'll be catching up on all the teams in front of you.
00:29:26
Holmesy
Agree with that. Let's just do a quick ranking. So I'll get you to rank these four rookies in terms of our priority to trade in if if a coach is looking to to downgrade on the bench. So ah Hall, Henderson and O'Sullivan from Geelong and Closie, how are we ranking these four players in terms of a priority?
00:29:48
DT Lemon
Oh, it's yeah. They are all really interesting options. um Honestly, I watched a bit of the DeLong game, but i I didn't really notice Clovisie that much.
00:29:59
DT Lemon
I might have to go back and watch some highlights. I think if he looks good and there's an obvious um position for him in the side, I think he, you know, gut feel is he would be the the one to jump on.
00:30:10
DT Lemon
But also I do like Connor O'Sullivan as well. I like if Tom Stewart's missing a few weeks, I like that, that he probably gets that gig. um I think he's looked really good in the preseason. um I think he, yeah, I think he's going to be a player.
00:30:22
DT Lemon
um And defensively, ah do like that option if you do want to bring on another rookie on field and defense. So I think I'd probably have those two ahead of the other guys. I think the other guys would be slower burns now.
00:30:33
DT Lemon
um Yeah, Hall, I think there's a few guys coming back from St. Kilda. So his his days may be numbered. Henderson don't really have a great read on on what that Melbourne forward line is looking like. So he's probably at the bottom.
Mid-Pricers and Trading Urgency
00:30:46
DT Lemon
But again, you know i wouldn't be... Yeah, um if you've got him, I think you'd still be pretty happy with that pick.
00:30:51
Holmesy
Yeah, i think if he started Henderson, I actually think it's quite a sneaky good pick being that mature age player at at Melbourne when they're they're looking to turn their list over a bit. um But yeah yeah, trading into him now wouldn't shock me if he he drops a 30 or 40, that's for sure.
00:31:07
Holmesy
But well done to those coaches that ah got on him at at basement price. let's ah Let's turn it around now, Lemon. So let's talk about urgency of trade-out. so myself and you and a lot of coaches, we've got a lot of these mid-prices that are currently burning holes in our sides. They haven't paid off as much as we thought they would.
00:31:25
Holmesy
So let's let's talk sort of urgency and and priority of trade-out. So let's start with the big one. Harry Perryman, I suppose that the thing to talk about here is that he is on his buy.
00:31:36
Holmesy
So he's not losing cash this week compared to some other players that are. But I'm thinking I know what you're going to say here. you just You never know what injuries and and bullets we're going to get over the next week.
00:31:47
Holmesy
Is it a case of just jumping ship straight away now knowing that he's he's got to go and then you deal with whatever we can next week? Or is there a play where you can hold him?
00:31:57
DT Lemon
Yeah, I really don't like holding these guys. If you know you're going to be trading them next week, their price isn't going to move. ah Generally, i'dd I'd say you've got to trade. Yes, if you've got two guys that you know you want to trade and they're coming down and in cash really fast, maybe they take a priority. But I think for for me, um yeah, he's got to go. The role is only going to get worse now with Reef McInnes injured.
00:32:21
DT Lemon
um That was a, I thought maybe he could put up a 70 or 80 this week and just give me another week to buy some time. But the Reef McInnes going down, Ned Long coming on and they just moved him to the back pocket. That was just an absolute killer. So yeah, I think for me, don't don't hold a guy. There's always going to be a better trade to do next week.
00:32:40
DT Lemon
So you pick your two best trades this week. And I think for a lot of coaches, that'll be Perryman.
00:32:46
Holmesy
Yep. Yeah, agree with that. ah I'll admit I've i've toyed with holding him because, like I said, he's not losing any cash this week. um And I've got some other players that potentially will.
00:32:57
Holmesy
um but But yeah, I think you just you get him you get him gone. We haven't really seen too many super big bullets just yet, but we know they're coming, whether it be subs or whatever. So you want to make sure you've got your trades up your sleeve to to deal with that. You want to just get Perryman out as soon as you can. So I'll be looking to do that this week.
00:33:14
Holmesy
I'm going to put, we're going go Will Day next. ah Now, Will Day was someone I wasn't as hot on in the preseason. I know you've got a bit of a different take, so I'm interested to hear it. ah got We got a bit tricked by that 129 in round zero, but he's gone back to the sort of mid-70s Will Day that we've we've sort of been accustomed to over the last year with you know the tags coming in and Hawthorne changing their game style to be very team-orientated and sharing the ball around with low fantasy scores.
00:33:42
Holmesy
Is there a ah play to trade Will Day this week, getting ahead of his buy, knowing that he's got Bedford, then he's got his buy, and then he's got Port Adelaide after, which are all red matchups. Yes, his run opens up after that, but if you're only going to get maybe 150 points from him out of the next three weeks, is it better to just get out of it and and make some coin and and look elsewhere?
00:34:03
DT Lemon
Yeah, he's a really tricky one. and i was really hot on him all year. I've started actually started all these guys we're talking about. So that sort of tells you where my team's at. I've had a a few sort of really average picks.
00:34:13
DT Lemon
um Yeah, I think it's a tricky one. If you're going to get off, I think you definitely get off this week. If you if you hold him through this week, he has the bye, so he might be a nice little loop option. And then one bad matchup and he goes through...
00:34:25
DT Lemon
um into ah an easier run so for me um yeah if you're going to get off i'd definitely be getting off this week if you stay with him this week i think you've just got to cop the bad score hopefully he can pull together a 70 or an 80 and keep his price sort of relatively steady um and then yeah you're really looking at that run that beautiful run that he has you know he's i think he's priced around 85 the moment five at the moment so you know i can see him going 90, 95, 100 through that nice juicy run. Maybe you get five weeks of that.
00:34:57
DT Lemon
He goes up another 50, to what he is now. um And I think that that turns into a good ah good play and a good trade there. So ah don't think it's a complete failure. um Yeah, obviously we're not getting the 120 again, but um he has gone up a bit in price. And yeah, if we can just survive the next couple of weeks, I think he's going to ah pay back the faith.
00:35:20
Holmesy
Yeah, it'll be very interesting to see what coaches do with that this week. I do agree, though. You either trade him out this week or you hold him through um and just cop the scores that come with the ah tags and the buys and and and attack that run when everyone else has got off him if they do.
00:35:36
Holmesy
Let's put these three players into the same sort of category now. Admittedly, one's in the midfield, but Sanders, Hollands, and Garcia, all three mid-prices that have failed. Now, Sanders, admittedly, may be a little bit different and as he's managed to hold his cash currently but doesn't have a very good role how we ranking these three in terms of importance to trade out i know garcia there's probably a little bit of hope that with those injuries he's into the 22 this week and they have richmond so obviously i think if he's in the 22 against richmond you hold but if he's sub or if he's not in the side how we ranking these guys in terms of needing to get out of our teams
00:36:16
DT Lemon
Yeah, so again, yeah, I started all these guys, traded Sanders out last week, but I've still got the Hollands and Garcia issues. I think the the problem for me is is role. um Yeah, Garcia, we'll talk about Garcia first. I think if he's sub or he's not playing, I think that's a pretty easy trade. You know, they've got some injuries.
00:36:35
DT Lemon
If he doesn't come into the best 22, then he's he's probably never going to. So I think that's a pretty easy trade if he is... named as Sabor out. I'm not sure what time they play. Hopefully we get a look at that.
00:36:48
DT Lemon
Sanders and Hollins, a little bit tricky. You know, Sanders just doesn't have the role now. It looks like they've replaced him in the midfield, but he looks okay. um Hollins has the beautiful role, looks terrible. So I think, um you know, it's tricky. I can see basically both of these guys turning it around.
00:37:05
DT Lemon
um You know, if Sanders has a good game, I wouldn't be surprised if they put him back in the midfield. If Hollins just demands the footy every now and then, i can see him putting up 80s and 90s like he did at the end of last year. So...
00:37:17
DT Lemon
I think, yeah, at the moment, you know, all three of these guys, very, very tradable. um And yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of them turned it around, but you can't hold on forever.
Premium Player Underperformance
00:37:28
DT Lemon
You've got to move them on when an opportunity arises.
00:37:31
DT Lemon
And yeah, again, you know, if you if you like the other side of the trade, I think I'd be happy to move on all three of these guys.
00:37:37
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that. Now, let's this will be for the coaches that have actually started well because we're not in a position to do this. But let's say your squad's in a good position and you're looking to do some of these fix-up trades on and some of these higher-priced players that haven't really started that well.
00:37:53
Holmesy
Let's talk j JHF for a second. So you're at the game, played a lot more forward than then he normally does with the Lacocious injury, but he did start there, um admittedly. So whether or not that was planned,
00:38:06
Holmesy
we're We're short in the forward line. There's still every chance that he you can turn it around and be a top six forward, but you've got to be a little bit concerned with what he's put up to start the year, right?
00:38:16
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's ah it's a really bad pick at the moment. And I think, I suspect a lot of the good coaches probably won't have him because what he's put up in the first two weeks is sort of nightmare stuff from a premium.
00:38:28
DT Lemon
um You know, he's he's going at, don't know what he's going at, 70 or something, 60. And he's, you know, he was priced at 90 to start the year. So that is just the complete opposite of what you're looking for.
00:38:40
DT Lemon
You're looking for 20 points of upside, not downside. So I think, Yeah, sure. If you have a luxury trade um and you're in a great position, um you can definitely you could definitely move on. But you need to have a pretty good team outside of him.
00:38:54
DT Lemon
um you know he We know he's a good player. We know he's still getting the mid-minutes. Sure, it' was a little bit forward, but... I think that was more just because they were playing Richmond and they were up by 10 goals and they're just trying to keep him and Rosie fresh. Rosie did a little bit as well. He just kicked a few goals.
00:39:10
DT Lemon
JHF gave off a few goals instead. I think he had two goals that he pretty much just handed to someone else. So it's a horrible, horrible pick. It makes me feel sick thinking about it, but um ah think I think I'd be sticking fat. And I think if you're in a position to trade him, I'm very jealous of your team.
00:39:27
Holmesy
Agree with that. Now, this one here is a little bit for my own selfish needs. I'd like you to to talk me off the ledge. So, Max Gorn, we picked him against Tristan Cherry because of the the tough Cherry run.
00:39:39
Holmesy
It started off well last week, but tough game against Cherry and looked a shell of his former self. Marshall looks incredible off that limited preseason, but he was back to being the number one ruck. But just talk me off the ledge. We can't trade Max, can we?
00:39:55
DT Lemon
It's a tough, yeah, it was a tough watch for anyone who who watched that game and having Gorn on their team. And its I think it always hurts more because he was playing against Cherry. I think a lot of coaches who don't have Gorn probably have Cherry. So really tricky watch. um He didn't look right. There's a bit of ah a whisper around there was some personal stuff going on.
00:40:13
DT Lemon
So I'm just crossing my fingers that that was just a one one week thing. You know, it's something that won't be affecting him every week. um But yeah, I think ah again, you know, you sort of have to pick, you have to sort of hold these guys through the tougher matchups.
00:40:28
DT Lemon
I think Cherry is going to be a tougher ruck matchup this year. So I think you just have to sort of hold Gorn through the tougher matchups and hope that he gives you 140, 150 against an easy matchup to pay you back.
00:40:39
DT Lemon
um But yeah, I think he's got, he's got Gold Coast this week, which is the hardest ruck matchup. So I'm, I'm, you know, trying to avoid watching that game. Maybe don't even check Gorn's score.
00:40:51
DT Lemon
ah Just let him do whatever he wants in your side this week. And then, yeah, expect two 140s against a good matchup to sort of pay you back. I think he owes us all a few ah few big ones.
00:41:04
Holmesy
And the last one, so this isn't on the run sheet, but I want to once again give you a question without notice. So we know that it's a value-based game and we're looking to build our cash this week, but spare a thought for for maybe a coach out there. There's lots of them that that chose a Brayshaw over a Dawson and they're seeing what Brayshaw is doing compared to a Dawson.
00:41:23
Holmesy
Coaches, you you need to tell them. They need to stick fat with a pick like Brayshaw, right? It's not the time of the year to to spend all their cash to get you know a Brayshaw up to a Dawson or a Rosie or the player that they've missed. yeah You need to hold these guys. Brayshaw, for example, has the good run coming up. So you know you kind of need to just pray that he's going to repay the faith. But for coaches that are in a good spot, what do you do with a Brayshaw or a Sarong or a premium type that they've paid big money for that just isn't performing the way that they need to to start the year?
00:41:54
DT Lemon
Yeah, really tough ah for coaches who started those guys because I think they they did look good in the preseason. um Frio just haven't really got their mojo going. And and i think I still think Brayshaw might be affected by that but knock he got. He's still wearing a bit of tape on his head. And I think it looks like he's affected by it. um So maybe that's come into play a little bit there.
00:42:16
DT Lemon
I think what what I like to do is with these guys like this is look at what they're priced at and pretend you're or a non-owner and then say, would I trade into this guy? Would I be looking at bringing this guy in in the next two or three weeks?
00:42:27
DT Lemon
If so, you know what price is he going to get to? And is that worth me trading him out and then bringing him back in? So both of these guys, you know how much forget about how much they've lost so far.
00:42:38
DT Lemon
Look at how much they're going to lose in the next two or three weeks. I don't think they'll lose that much more. There's a very good chance that one of them puts up a big score and and starts making cash again. So, yeah, you've just got to sort of say, look, that was a failed pick so far, but there's still plenty of time.
00:42:53
DT Lemon
you know they'll They'll get a soft matchup and they'll put up a 140. And all those coaches who don't own them, you're going to be gaining 20, 30, 40 points on them. So, yeah, I feel for you, but um you've just got I think you just have to sort of hold fat. We know they're good players and they've still got the role.
00:43:10
DT Lemon
They just haven't, Frio just haven't really looked good. it's It's, I mean, what's going on with Frio, Holmesy? They're just not not sort of clicking right now.
00:43:18
Holmesy
Man, I was talking about this to someone the other day. That Sydney-Frio game just reeked of two teams that are just so out of confidence at the moment that the way they were playing, it was like they just they didn't want to make a mistake. They were nervous.
00:43:31
Holmesy
And that's just the vibe that Frio's got at the moment. they've They've had so much sort of hype over the preseason that this is their time to go. Yes, they're missing some key personnel. um Young and Darcy are huge for that side. They're they're missing that big inside mid that can protect Brayshaw and Sorong and let them get to work. But they're just, yeah...
00:43:49
Holmesy
They're not playing with much confidence at the moment. They need to turn it around and they need to turn it around quickly ah or else they're going be without a coach, I would have thought. But yeah, it's it's ah it's a tough bit of luck for for those coaches that started Brayshaw.
00:44:01
Holmesy
We're all going to want him at some point soon. He's got the Eagles into... and i think he plays Richmond and Melbourne in the next sort of three to four games. So the run's turning around.
00:44:09
DT Lemon
Thank you.
00:44:09
Holmesy
It's just... if if If he doesn't put up a score against the Eagles this week, then there's alarm bells. But I suppose with Brayshaw, the one thing I have noticed is he seems to be playing a little bit more inside when he's actually inside. He's he's not getting the CBAs. He's spending a bit more time at half forward, but he's not hitting up for those little cheat marks as much as he used to anymore. He's kind of doing the work in the contest.
00:44:30
Holmesy
you know it showed i think in the preseason game, he only scored 75 fantasy points, but it was like a 120 super coach showing that he was doing a lot of the grunt work on the inside. So is that a concern for Brayshaw moving forward?
00:44:44
DT Lemon
I wouldn't be too concerned. i think I think what we see historically is guys who can find the footy on the outside will keep finding the footy on the outside. um It's the stoppage stuff that can really change with the with the role. So if he's if he's still scoring the stoppage points um and the transition scoring isn't really there,
00:45:03
DT Lemon
um I think that's more around Frio's game plan and and how they're moving the ball. Are they moving wider? So a lot of the time you see with teams, they'll they'll move the ball a bit wider. They'll go down the wings rather than use the the central midfielders.
00:45:17
DT Lemon
um And that can also just be around matchups as well. Sometimes teams just don't give you the insight inside ball. They make you go wide. um And I think that, yeah, to me... a lot of these stuff, this stuff can just be explained by the matchup, um you know tougher matchups.
00:45:32
DT Lemon
We expect him to score a bit poorer. It's just a shame that maybe he's had some tougher matchups and poor games in a, you know, to start the season. um If this was the middle of the season, you just sort of, but you've you've seen what he's done in easier matchups and you hold through. But I think he's a tricky one because I don't think he has a great record in the, in the, the Derby. So um West Coast should be easy, but I don't know if that's always the case for Brayshaw. So I'd,
00:45:56
DT Lemon
I'd still be a bit worried about that one. Richmond though, you know, again, you can sort of lock in a 140 for him and at Richmond. So um just be looking forward to that matchup, I think.
Evolving Mid-Pricers into Keepers
00:46:07
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that. All right, what I want to do before we get to the questions is just to do a little bit of real or overreaction with some of these. We're going call them mid-prices, but they're more players that started in the mid-price category and and have now turned into potential underpriced sort of keepers for us. So the first one um I want to start with is Tom Powell. Priced at 89,000.
00:46:27
Holmesy
Won 20 in the first game and then i think he was on 70 at halftime in the game on the weekend before slowing down to finish just under a ton. Priced at 89, is there still room to go there? do you think there's enough value or if the coaches that started him, they've got the leg up and and there's not too much value left now?
00:46:44
DT Lemon
Yeah, Tom Powell's an interesting one. I think it's real. um He looks really good. ah To me, the question mark is Wardlaw. When he comes back, what does that midfield mix do? you know You're not going to move LDU out of the midfield.
00:46:57
DT Lemon
I think they really want Sheasel in there. So Wardlaw can really play nowhere else. So does that mean Tom Powell's splitting time at halfback? That's probably not the end of the world, but you know maybe he slides to a wing.
00:47:11
DT Lemon
Maybe he keeps getting the midfield minutes. I'm not exactly sure. So I think it's real. ah Definitely until Wardlow comes back, um I'd just be a little bit little bit wary about that change there because that's a huge, huge change to that midfield.
00:47:25
Holmesy
Agree with that. Finn Callaghan, priced at 86, fresh off the buy, taking that midfield role with both hands. um Cogs has been moved out, at least just for now, until he builds up his fitness.
00:47:37
Holmesy
Green's come back, but Kelly was the one that that got the the bump down. Is Finn Callaghan real, priced at 86? Where can we see him realistically averaging for the next sort of four, five, six games?
00:47:49
DT Lemon
Yeah, I think he's real as well. ah Where will he average is the question. you know He's a bit more of ah like an outside player, I think. He's he's quite effective with the ball. um I think, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he's a 90 to 100 guy. Can he go over 100? I think consistently is going to be tricky for him. So, yeah, I think there's probably still a little bit of meat on the bone.
00:48:11
DT Lemon
I'm not sure I'd be trading into it, but I definitely wouldn't stop you from, if you liked him, I wouldn't stop you from from bringing him in.
00:48:20
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I like it. I'm not sure I like it as a fantasy option now. Priced at 86. I think if you started him, despite his buy, you've got the the cash rises and the points early, which is which is quite handy. He kind of, to me, seems like he's in that sort of Will Day mold where he's he's playing some incredible football, but a lot of it is you know getting the ball, bursting from stoppage, breaking a few tackles and getting a handball, which is only sort of two fantasy points. It looks...
00:48:46
Holmesy
It looks very good, but I don't think he's going to get enough easy ball to really push himself above that 100 mark, which you would need at his price. So for that, I'm a um an overreaction for Callaghan, but I can see why coaches are
Defensive Options and Role Analysis
00:48:58
Holmesy
interested. And I've definitely been wrong more than once in the past.
00:49:02
Holmesy
Now some are defensive options because we're looking for some options for Harry Perryman and there some are there are some cheaper guys that have they've come up a little bit in price now, but hopefully they've still got a bit of ah cash left to make. So talk to me about Joel Frazier. Do you have Joel Frazier?
00:49:19
DT Lemon
I don't. I was close to starting him, but um yeah, went the SDK option instead. He's a really interesting one. um You know, I don't always love these guys that have two roles in a team.
00:49:33
DT Lemon
ah because I think they can, you know, we see with Perryman, you know, they can move between the roles without basically notice. They can move in game. You might think they've got a good matchup. They actually have a bad matchup because they're going to play in a different position. And I think he's the guy that they will swing between defense and midfield.
00:49:50
DT Lemon
um And we know they've got some midfielders coming back as well. So that tells me that he's probably going to play defense in the near future. ah He's not going to be picked in the midfield over Bontempele. So,
00:50:01
DT Lemon
I think he's a great player and I definitely can see him having upside um on on his price. I guess the question is how much upside, how many weeks do you run with it um and does it you know does it drop back to a back pocket range?
00:50:16
DT Lemon
Yeah, I'm not, I don't love, I had the choice choice to bring him in this week and I decided not to. I don't i't love the the trade in now, but yeah, tricky one.
00:50:27
DT Lemon
What about you? Are you big on Frazier? Yeah.
00:50:29
Holmesy
ah No, and I haven't been, so I suppose that's where I might be a little bit biased. Second-year players, as you mentioned, the role has been are sort of up and down. He's in defence, he's in the forward line, he's in the midfield. They've even had him rucking at times, so I think he was a ah fantastic starting pick to this point.
00:50:48
Holmesy
But yeah, it's just now priced at 71. Does he go 80? Yeah, probably, but you know nine points. of upside Maybe he goes 85 and it's, you know, sort of 15 points, which is not the worst, but you're sort of locking in another trade to get him out later on.
00:51:03
Holmesy
um So, yeah, i'm I'm not as big on Joel Frazier, but well done to those coaches that um started him. It was a very good pick. um Let's go to his art his defensive teammate, not in team, but ah Jake Bowie, another one of these players who started very well. um Look, he was ah he was a good pick to start once Stephen May went down.
00:51:23
Holmesy
He had some good scores to finish off at the end of last year with some kick-ins alongside May. Melbourne, with the way they're playing and they're dropping off, it's probably going to lead to a lot more chip-chip in the back line, which means there's points up for grabs. My question for you is...
00:51:37
Holmesy
Is he that 85 to 90 guy that we would need him to still be valued at his price? Or is it too risky now with Stephen May on the horizon that um you know his points might drop back to to where they've been in the past? Because we've seen Christian Salem come out an average 110 to start the year.
00:51:52
Holmesy
We know that's not sustainable. But is this Melbourne game style going to be sustainable now?
00:51:59
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's a really tricky one. i think you've hit the nail on the head. It it seems like it's ah a serious game style shift. Their forward line isn't that tall, isn't that threatening. So I think they've decided, you know, we can't just bang the ball in in there. We've got to sort of possess and then try and chip it around and find a little, you know, 40 meter set shot. So...
00:52:19
DT Lemon
um you know yeah i don't think that's sustainable. I don't think a lot of teams will give them that. um I think you know they've been with the teams they've played so far. I think they've just been allowed to do that. I think a lot of teams won't give them that. They'll press up, force them to go long down the line and bank on on being able to turn the ball over around the halfway line. So I think It's a bit of a watch. I think, yeah, he definitely, again, a bit like Frazier, I think he definitely has upside.
00:52:44
DT Lemon
The problem is if he goes 80, you know, he's only got maybe 100K to make and then you're probably going to have to trade him out at some point pretty soon as well. So I prefer to, you know, a guy that has maybe five, 10 points of upside, i prefer to go a little bit higher.
00:52:58
DT Lemon
um and find someone that that gets close enough to the top top six that you can keep them maybe to their bye or at least 10 weeks, um maybe even beyond that.
00:53:09
DT Lemon
Maybe there's some upside that they even become a top six. Whereas I think for him, um you know even at the moment he's going at 90, that's not and close to top six defense. And I think that he might come down a bit there.
00:53:21
DT Lemon
But I actually love him as a player. I think he's a great player. and If I was Melbourne, I'd be getting the ball in his hands as well. So I don't know, maybe maybe if they phase out Salem, he can be 95, 100. yeah, what are your thoughts on him, Holmes?
00:53:35
Holmesy
Yeah, no, you've nailed it. I think once again, hindsight, it's 2020, but those coaches that started him in round one off the Stephen Maynews are well ahead because they're probably going to get that 20 points of upside from that 60 price point, maybe even 25. But I think now we've missed the boat.
00:53:51
Holmesy
And yes, we're looking for a parachute option off Perriman who's bleeding cash, but I'm not sure Bao is the answer at at that price, unfortunately. But that was a ah good segue into another one of your Portboys. yeah, what have you got, Lemon?
00:54:03
DT Lemon
I think that's yeah i think it's a great point. you know Some of these guys were good starting picks two weeks ago. um Just because they were a good pick two weeks ago it doesn't make them a good pick now. So I think that's really tricky. A lot of lot of coaches can get caught um trading in last week's great pick.
00:54:17
DT Lemon
But um you've got to remember he's a lot more expensive than he was at the start of the year. So... um Yeah, he's one that I would have loved to start. I didn't quite quite have the balls to do it, but it's a little bit late to jump on now, I think. Unless you think he can keep going at 90, if you think he can do that, then all aboard, it'd be a lovely pick.
00:54:35
Holmesy
Let's talk about one of your Port boys now, Kane Farrell. He's currently averaging 100. We were looking to see who those points were going to go to in the Port Adelaide back line. And I suppose what's interesting to about Farrell is he scored that 88 in a ah thumping game against Collingwood.
00:54:51
Holmesy
And then he's kind of feasted in a a softer matchup against Richmond. And he's got the Bombers and then St.
00:54:55
DT Lemon
you
00:54:56
Holmesy
Kilda coming up in his next couple of games. Farrell priced at 86. Yes, there's there's maybe not as much upside as a Bowie or a Frazier, but if you can get him at 86 and he can go 95, is that more of a play?
00:55:12
DT Lemon
Yeah, I think it is more of a play if he can do that. I think um five, 10 points of upside and they get close enough to the top of the line, you can hold that a long time and you can fix it when you want to fix it.
00:55:25
DT Lemon
These other guys, you know they're going to be your your worst defender at some point and you have to trade them. Whereas Farrell, I can see, you might even be out to run him all year and maybe even loop him and or get creative there. So I think it you know if he can go 95, it's a great play.
00:55:39
DT Lemon
Again, I think you've got to look at the... you know It's just a two-game sample size and both Collingwood and Richmond did sag off a little bit there. So um he had a few... you know He's going at seven marks a game.
00:55:50
DT Lemon
Is he going to keep doing that? I'm not exactly sure. He's not really an intercepting mark kind of guy. um His kick-ins aren't crazy big. You know, he's got some kick-ins, but um Port do spread it around. So I think for me, it's really tricky. He's going to have to have a lot of handball receives.
00:56:06
DT Lemon
He's going to have to kick a few goals from 50 meters. um You know, he's going to have to get a lot of switch kicks to get that ah score up. ah But he's definitely one that I'm considering this week because I think he's a yeah he's a nice a nice option from Perryman that maybe has a little bit of value on his head.
PodPod Partnership Announcement
00:56:22
Holmesy
agree with that. Lemon, let's finish off with some questions. Just a reminder that PodPod has partnered with Q platforms. That's Q-U in 2025 to help answer all of your AFL fantasy questions.
00:56:35
Holmesy
If you'd like to help out the PodPod for a small fee, you can head over to askmeonq.com slash podpodafl. We have the ability to get a personalized audio response to any of your AFL fantasy questions.
00:56:49
Holmesy
um You submit your question. If it doesn't get answered within 24 hours, you get your money back. Or if you decide that you don't want your question answered, ah you get your money back. But yeah you have the ability for full team reviews, trade options, and much, much more. So if you want to help out the pod pod, the link is in the show description below. We'd love for you to get involved and help answer your questions.
Defender Choices and Strategies
00:57:10
Holmesy
Lemon, this first one, and I think we're all struggling with this. It's kind of what we've been speaking about. But from Teza, he's struggling to find value and trust in defense. Is now the wrong time to just suck it up and and bring in a premium defender that are scoring pretty well?
00:57:26
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's ah it's a good question and and definitely one that I'm working through at the moment. I think, yeah, you can definitely, if you can't, you know, if you don't love the options, you could maybe look at one of the cheaper guys, bit of value.
00:57:38
DT Lemon
um you know, Connor O'Sullivan is an option then if you want to go cheaper, but then you might be sort of playing three two rookies on field, which does scare me a little. ah Bringing in a premium defender, yeah I think when if there's a guy that you like, you think they're sort of reasonably priced and they're guaranteed, you know almost guaranteed to be top of the line.
00:57:56
DT Lemon
i don't I don't hate doing that because it basically saves you a trade in the future. And again, I'm looking at my team and I'm i'm seeing a heap of guys I need to trade at some point. um So I wouldn't mind locking in a premium defender. if that If that suits your team structure, lock away a position and just use your trades elsewhere for a few weeks.
00:58:13
DT Lemon
What about you?
00:58:14
Holmesy
I suppose ill I'll throw it back to you. I suppose they can kind of be in two categories. So let's talk maybe like a Messiah, Wanganin, Miller or a Jack Sinclair that are sort of priced in the low to mid-hundreds compared to a Sheasel, Zorko, Whitfield that are all up in that 110-plus range.
00:58:31
Holmesy
Is the 110-plus range too much? Or if you're looking at a Zorko or a Whitfield with a good run, you know just lock that away. And if they can go 120 over the next sort of five weeks, then then you're away and everyone else is chasing.
00:58:44
DT Lemon
Yeah, I think we we see that you know we're seeing that now with with Jordan Dawson. A lot of the teams who started him are just streaking away. And I'm looking at that. I'm wondering when he's going to come back down to earth. So I think you can can go to these 110 guys, but you've just got to be really confident that they're not going to be that much cheaper in that in the future. you know If they put up a poor score, they get tagged, they have a tough matchup. They're the ones who are going to come down a lot faster in price.
00:59:06
DT Lemon
um So that's probably the only thing. Yeah, some of those guys, I'll be looking at their fixture and saying, if I bring them in now, you know maybe I'm better off bringing them in in three, four weeks time. Is that an option?
00:59:16
DT Lemon
Just have a look at the run there. um you know Particularly with the forward tags, if if there's some teams that are running forward tags, they're the ones that scare me with those those big ball users out of the halfback.
00:59:26
Holmesy
So this one's from Jason L. He wants to trade Perryman to a defender under his price and he already has SDK and Frazier. Do you think his next best option is going all the way down to O'Sullivan, which means he's going to free up cash for Dacos next week? Or do you think he needs to try and shop around in those areas that we were speaking about before?
00:59:47
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's yeah very very tricky. O'Sullivan, I think we'd probably just have to see on the um Tom Stewart injury. i think i think there I don't know what their injury list is looking like apart from Tom Stewart, but ah you know if he's one week away, there's big potential that Conor O'Sullivan might just be having a good role this week and then and out of the side next week. So,
01:00:11
DT Lemon
That's probably the question there. um Yeah, getting cash for Dacos is great, but um again, you're not going to be getting that till next week. So there might be another way to get the cash next week as well. um It's an option.
01:00:25
DT Lemon
It's definitely an option.
01:00:26
Holmesy
It definitely is. I think it kind of comes back to what we were speaking about at the start of the podcast, though. If this is going to bring another rookie on field, yes, you're going to get away with it in best 18, but you'd better have a plan to get one of them off come round five because if you're running, let's say it's two rookies in defense, that could be two 30s on any given week and then you're you're in a bit of strife trying to get them off the field. So that would be the only flag with that kind of move is that, yes, you're probably going to get away with it in best 18,
01:00:53
Holmesy
but you want to make sure that you're all good to go when we revert back to to best 22 in round five. This one's from Patrick Boyd, currently ranked in the top 50 and fourth in the Pod Pod Challenge, which is awesome. Well done, Patrick.
01:01:07
Holmesy
Next, he needs to correct two failed starting picks. So he's got Perryman and Sanders that he wants to fix. Is it okay to still bring bring in Levi Ashcroft to despite the price increase? And then with the second trade, Lemon, does he go for points on field, e.g. Azorko, or does he look to pocket cash like a closey and then take in a war chest for next week?
01:01:29
DT Lemon
Yeah, great position, Patrick. And um it's yeah it's awesome that you've done that without Ashcroft as well. I think i think yeah it's not too late to bring him in. um you know I think we both think that there's probably 20, 30 points of upside there if he can stay out of the vest. um So I don't think that's too bad. In terms of points on field,
01:01:47
DT Lemon
I guess if you're looking at like a Zorko guy, you're basically looking at a fully priced premium. What I like to do is think, you know, I've got to spend that cash next week. Is there going to be someone ah different that I can bring in next week? If you're going in Zorko next week, you know maybe better off just bringing him in this week, um take the points on field.
01:02:03
DT Lemon
And yeah, you maybe have to find some cash next week. But if there's someone else that you think is coming down in price, maybe someone who's got a poor score in their system and going to get them a little bit cheaper next week, I don't hate it.
01:02:15
DT Lemon
ah But yeah, there's always going to be value there. um There's always going to be rookies popping and mid prices popping. So yeah, sometimes six hundred and sixty four k that that's a lot of money to have on your bench. I'd be, yeah, it'd be a tough, very tough coach to not spend that this week.
Balancing Cash Management and Player Upgrades
01:02:31
Holmesy
Yeah, and I suppose you spoke about this in the past. If you've got that money on your bench and then next week you get a bullet and you're needing to trade out a premium and then you roll that cash over to the next week, then um that's when you can get a bit unstuck. So ideally, you don't get any bullets and you can spend it, but we know how AFL fantasy works. yeah I think I'd definitely be locking in getting in Levi this week.
01:02:51
Holmesy
And then I'd be looking to get maybe not a Zorko. I'm more than happy for you to go up to get the points. But I think you know if you can find someone someone that's a bit more value and roll maybe 200K over to next week, then that's going to be put you in a very good position to then you know do a further upgrade the next week and then potentially an upgrade the week after.
01:03:02
DT Lemon
Thank you.
01:03:09
Holmesy
So yeah, really like that. And well done on the the good start. Next question here is from Waza. He's got 390k in the bank and he's looking to get out Perryman and Hollands.
01:03:20
Holmesy
This is the age-old question, Lemon. So does he go a Guns and Rookies? So thinking a Sheaslin and Nevitt or does he look to go two sort of mid-prices? So looking at a midfield in that Callaghan, Tom Powell range and then a Farrell. What do you think here?
01:03:34
Holmesy
It's best 18 versus setting your team up for success later on down the track.
01:03:40
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's a great question. I think the way I look at this one is, um you know, the first option, you basically, you're not going to need to touch Sheezle for the rest of the year. You you will need a trade in Evert at some point, maybe soon, maybe you get a few weeks out of him.
01:03:54
DT Lemon
The second option, um those both those guys, you can probably hold for a while, but you're again, you're probably going trading both of them at some point. So I think for me, I'd be looking at my team and saying, you know do i need how many guys do I need to trade?
01:04:09
DT Lemon
Do I need to just bring in someone that I can just lock away like a shiesel? Or if I don't have that many guys that I think will need to be traded in the next five, six weeks, then maybe better off going with the two mid prices. You make it a short short-term cash play, get some points on field.
01:04:23
DT Lemon
and then trade them out um you know in four, five, six weeks' time, whenever they peak in price. Because that's the thing with these some of these mid-prices. They will peak in price, and if you don't get off them at the right point, um they might actually come down, and all of a sudden, you haven't made that much cash on them at all. So, um yeah, just looking at how heavy your team is in mid-prices, rookies, and then maybe make that like that decision using that information.
Trading Decisions and Player Evaluation
01:04:48
Holmesy
Tim, this one's from Tim. Hey, lads, I've got the Stewart bullet, but I also have Hollands and Perryman. Am I best holding Hollands and trading Perryman in case there's more bullets next week and I'm stuck with him?
01:04:59
Holmesy
Or do the alternative is Hollands to Nevitt? So I suppose you've got to trade Stewart. Even if he plays this week, he's got that nine in his price cycle and we know what players are like coming back from injury. So is it the age old question, as we said before, is Perryman or Hollands the more important trade out this week?
01:05:19
DT Lemon
Yeah, I think that the difference for me is Perryman, I think Hollands can theoretically turn this around. I think he's got the role. No one from Carlton has taken the Nick Newman role right now. it's It is completely void of it of a distributor off half back.
01:05:35
DT Lemon
theoretically he can turn this around, whereas Perryman won't be playing this week. He's not going to turn it around this week. And with the injury, I think he's probably more likely to playing more time in defense than um in the midfield. So yeah, for me, a tricky one, but I would still probably lean towards trading Perryman.
01:05:55
DT Lemon
ah because you know that's almost certainly going to be using that as a trade. Hollands might just put up a, he might remember how to football, might put up a 70 or 80. All of a sudden, you might actually be able to keep him for two, three, four weeks. So I think he's more likely to be holdable in the short term, Hollands.
01:06:11
Holmesy
Agree with that. This one's from Fantasy Observer AFL, and we've got to get this in here to pay homage to Dossie and the Pod Pod. So he's got a real Pod Watch here. He's looking at Ryan Marrick or Caminiti as legitimate F5, F6 options for a three to four week play.
01:06:28
Holmesy
Let's just not talk about Caminiti because I don't think you're going there with St. Kilda, but Ryan Marrick with that defensive role for the Eagles, I don't have his price off the top of my head, but is he someone that you could look at now that he's out of the vest or do you think that's even too potty for the pod pod?
01:06:44
DT Lemon
I mean, ah yeah, i i i love I love a good pod, but I think that might even be too potty. I think he's, what's the yeah what's he averaging? 52 this year. So not a heap of upside there. No, really, no even what he's priced at, ah not a heap of upside.
01:06:59
Holmesy
Yeah, I think he was the vest in one of his games. So that that's lowering his average.
01:07:03
DT Lemon
Right.
01:07:03
Holmesy
He had a decent game on the weekend. um But yeah, me personally, I don't want any part of the Eagles. Don't get tricked by a decent game against Brisbane. um They're still going to be pretty poor and they're playing that Richmond game style of old, which isn't very conducive to scoring. So would anyone be shocked if Ryan Marrick comes out this week, has a 30 and then he's back in the vest or he's dropped and then you're in a bit of strife. So yeah.
01:07:24
Holmesy
Not for me, but don't mind the the left field thinking. Let's go two more here. Lemon, and I like this one from Akashi. So if he goes peatling to Nevitt, that leaves him only 922k to get a defender from Tom Stewart, but he doesn't like any of the options. So is it a play to fade Nevitt and go down to a cheaper rook so we can get up to guys that are like um Messiah, Dale or Holmes?
01:07:49
Holmesy
Or does he go Nevit and then settle for a Farrell type? What do you think? Is Nevit the must-have, which means you pick the best available defender or do you go the best defender and and get the next best rookie?
01:08:03
DT Lemon
Yeah, it's a good question. I think for me, you know if you really like Nevit, last week was a good time to jump on or starting him. I think now a lot of that value is gone. So yeah, I think you know this is a classic example.
01:08:15
DT Lemon
yeah I don't think Nevit's a must-have. I don't think he's going to be going at 90, 100 for you know the rest of the year. So I think you can go for a cheaper rookie if you like the cheaper rookie.
01:08:26
DT Lemon
And it allows you to get the guy one of the other ends. You know, but the beauty of one of those more expensive guys is you can pretty much lock them away. Again, they're closer close enough to top six. You can save a trade on that on them.
01:08:37
DT Lemon
You don't need to move them out. Whereas Farrell, you know, potentially people are going to be looking to move him out. um You know, you can avoid a trade down the line there.
01:08:47
Holmesy
Last one here, Lemon. This one is from Ryan Sharp. So a lot of people are pouncing on Nassaya Wanganeen-Milera. What are your thoughts on Sinclair as a potential pod to go against the crowd?
01:09:00
DT Lemon
Yeah, i like it as a pick. I'm i'm a Wanganee Miller owner, but yeah, Sinclair, if he had a full preseason, he might have been in my team instead. And I think a lot of coaches probably in a similar position.
01:09:13
DT Lemon
The beauty of Sinclair, he does have that that juicy matchup this week against Richmond. So he might put up a big score and that just sort of gets you ahead of the game a little bit there. And and then from there, you know he's shown he's a pretty consistent guy. Like even including this year, the last four years is an average of between 102 1.9 and 102.9. So he is just super, super consistent no matter where he's playing. um I think he's a perfectly good option um this week as a bit of a pod to to so yeah maybe going Naz. Maybe Naz gets more likely to get a tag or have a bad game. So yeah, I don't mind it.
01:09:51
Holmesy
Agree with that.
Guest Promotion and Podcast Outro
01:09:52
Holmesy
Lemon, we said we're going to run a bit of a tighter pod and we've gone for an hour and 10 minutes. so I really appreciate you are jumping on last minute tonight. Can you just give your your Patreon ah a little bit of a plug and let the listeners know where they can find you if they haven't come across your content for 2025?
01:10:08
DT Lemon
Yeah, thanks, Emil, mate. And yeah, happy to give plug. I've just started a ah Patreon this year. we're We're just doing some more sort of strategy-focused podcasts and some Q&As and stuff. So it's really cool. You can check it out at Lemon underscore League on X um or hit me up on Twitter, dt Lemon underscore DT.
01:10:27
DT Lemon
um And yeah it's um yeah, it's been really popular. We're just trying to do something a bit different, like more... I like the Holmes files, um yeah deep dive into um some yeah topics there. And and yeah, it's ah i'm I'm really enjoying it. And yeah if you enjoy listening to me talk, then there's there's plenty more of that. So definitely check it out.
01:10:46
Holmesy
Yep, I've got the chat with Jaden lined up ready to go in the next day or two when I can actually get some time to listen. So really keen to jump in on that one and and and deep dive on the pricing mechanism because it's such an important part of the game that we don't necessarily understand as much as we should. So...
01:11:03
Holmesy
Really keen to listen to that one, mate. But yeah, thanks for jumping on. For everyone else, as always, make sure you're following us on Twitter or X at PodPodAFL. I'm at HolmesiesHeroes.
01:11:14
Holmesy
um Make sure you're subscribed to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. We'll be back next week, hopefully with ah a bit of a bigger panel. I know Louis actually flying at the moment.
01:11:25
Holmesy
He's ranked inside 2K. He's at a ripping start. So looking forward to having him back on the pod and Harmi and Sam. But have a good week.
01:11:32
DT Lemon
you
01:11:32
Holmesy
Hopefully your trades go well. And yeah, enjoy. like