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The Holmes Files - Late Pre Season Strategy Discussions with DCCaterpillars #PODPOD
2.9k Plays4 days ago
In this series, Holmesy continues his one-on-one interviews with some of the brightest minds in the AFL Fantasy community. Up next, DCCaterpillas!
DC is the host of The Hat Chat podcast. Not only is he one of the most well known content creators, his AFL Fantasy success speaks for itself, being the proud owner of a 71st placed hat back in 2021. Around that year he boasted many seasons inside of the top 500. When it comes to fantasy, DC analyses the game like no other and his insights are valuable for any coach looking to succeed in 2025.
On this episode, Holmesy interviews DC about all the hot topics of discussion leading into round 0. The lads discuss team structure, early bye round strategy, key trading success and all the headaches surrounding the ruck and defensive lines. This chat is over an hour long and not one to be missed if you want success playing AFL Fantasy this season.
If you love our content and want to help support us for all of our years of work, please consider giving back by having your specific AFL Fantasy questions answered. At the link below, you have the option for a full team review, specific player / strategy questions and in-season trade and captain options. For a small fee you can have your questions answered whilst also supporting the PODPOD. All questions are greatly appreciated!
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This episode was brought to you by Magic Sports. Magic Sports have a number of new products to help take your fantasy games to the next level:
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Follow us on X:
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DC: @DCCaterpillars
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Transcript
00:00:19
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Wednesday 26th of February back for another episode of the Holmes Files and I've got another special guest. I deliberately waited a long time in the preseason to get this man on. He's very very good at what he does.
00:00:36
Holmesy
um You've heard him around Hat Chat. Unfortunately Nathan wasn't available DC but thanks for thanks for jumping in. I appreciate it mate. How are you?
00:00:45
DC
I'm good, mate. I was going to say thanks for getting me on, and it was a lovely intro, but I'd have to be lying now that you said you'd rather Nathan. ah No, but it is it is great to be on the Holmes Files. It's almost as big a big an honor as ah winning a hat. So, yeah, looking forward to the chat.
00:00:59
Holmesy
you know, here at the PodPod, we need the dossie quota. So every now and again, we need to get someone on. So that's why I would have got Nathan on just to just to feel the the diversity needs, but really excited to chat to you.
00:01:10
Holmesy
So for those of you that don't know, if you don't listen to hat chat, I mean, that's all they talk about, but DC won a hat back in 2021. So the same year that um I finished in the top 10, DC was always up and
00:01:19
DC
ah Good year, that.
00:01:23
Holmesy
Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm pretty sure you're in the hunt for a large part of that season and just kind of faded, right? Where did you get to in that season?
00:01:30
DC
I got as high as ninth, I think just over halfway, maybe just after the buys. And then with two rounds to go, i was 15th. So I was still kind of in the hunt for top 10 and then had a shocking last couple of rounds. And I think I dropped about 40 spots in the last round and finished 71st. So yeah, it was slightly bittersweet because I'd been in the top 30 for probably three quarters of the season and then dropped out of that late, but still great to get a cap. And I've been trying to get back there ever since.
00:01:59
Holmesy
And was it 2020? You have to correct me. because You guys, before you did Hatchat, you were you podcasting for the Fantasy Factory as well? Were you up there in 2020 as well? I can't remember.
00:02:10
DC
Yeah. Yep. We, uh, so that my hat year, we were still doing some, some stuff for fantasy factory, as you said, and then sort of switched over to hatch at the following year. So I had three years in a row of of which the hat year was in the middle where, um, I was in the hunt. So i finished, I think 175th and then had the hat year and then, uh, finished about 230th in 2022 as well. so had a couple of down years since then with a, about a 3000 and 1000 finished
00:02:36
DC
um So it'd be nice to bounce back and inside that top 500, but it's getting harder and harder to do these days. There's there's so many good coaches around and you just have to look at all the popular picks now in the preseason and the vast majority of them, you can make pretty strong arguments as to why they should be popular, that the coaches getting really switched on the community and it's it's making it a lot of fun, but it's making it very difficult as well.
00:03:00
Holmesy
Yeah, i remember I remember sitting down at the end of the season, ah the season just gone and and just penciled in a few names and thought, you know, I'm going to be on here. There's some some names that people might not think about. And lo and behold, November rolls around and all the names are being spoken about and it doesn't really matter. But can you pinpoint any reasons as to why you're you've dropped off a little bit over the last couple of years? Now, you've still got very respectable finishes, but not quite... quite the heights that you were back in 2021 and around that mark. What think's changed for you? Do you think you're a little bit unlucky? Has the game evolved a little bit? What can you sort of think about?
00:03:33
DC
ah Yeah, probably a bit of both. I think definitely last year had some bad luck. I've also made some shocking trades, I think. ah Yeah, I mean, the the one last year that stands out is probably the worst trade I've ever made, which was the Tristan Cherry trade down to Jordan Sweet and Tom Green, with Tom Green getting his seven the week I brought him in. And then...
00:03:55
DC
sweet getting COVID the following week and and Sherry going on to be the the highest averaging player for the rest of the season.
00:03:59
Holmesy
Thank
00:04:01
DC
So that one destroyed my season after I i started really well. um So yeah, there's certainly been certain trades that have caused issues. I think the year before, I brought in Jack Steele partway through the year when he was sort of up over 100 price tag and he he had those niggles that caused him to to suck basically through the middle part of the season and and and that sort of torpeo torpedo the year. So I think that that risk of bringing in highly priced players who then drop a lot in value and... um
00:04:32
DC
yeah, don't don't live up to the price tag. I think that is one of the worst things you can do in fantasy these days um for your overall ranks. I've definitely had a couple of those the last few years, but as I said, I think, yeah, a lot of the the people are getting really switched on that are playing in the game and and you do need a bit of luck now, but you also need to to really nail most of your your picks, particularly your starting picks. It's hard to climb back if you start with a ah poor team and I think, yeah,
00:05:02
DC
Yeah, that that saying has been getting around a little bit that you can you can lose a cap with your starting team. You don't necessarily win one, but you can definitely lose one. And I think that's what happened to me a little bit in 2023, not so much last year, but definitely 2023. I didn't have a great starting team that year and and it's it's difficult to to change that now.
00:05:21
Holmesy
Yeah, that that trading into high-priced players when they they get injured or they go into a bad run of form, so so crucial, I think. And I follow you a lot, obviously, with the hat-chat stuff.
00:05:32
Holmesy
was that the Was that the year where you paid up for Max Gorn when he was priced about 120 and you you didn't want to do and you held off, you held off, and then you you had no choice eventually and you did it and and then he went on the the run of some 80s and stuff?
00:05:35
DC
Yeah,
00:05:40
DC
yeah
00:05:44
Holmesy
And I suppose we can...
00:05:44
DC
he got injured as well. like yeah so It's the timing thing.
00:05:46
Holmesy
Yeah,
00:05:48
DC
But yeah, i do think paying up top dollar for those guys midway through the season, if you get on the wrong ones, it just it just kills your momentum from a cash generation point of view as well.
00:06:00
Holmesy
What about, let's let's put that into a starting squad perspective now because there are some pretty high-priced players that um coaches are considering. it's The risk is just as big in the starting squad, right? Like, we always say it's risky to pick these mid-pricers, but at the end of the day, if ah if a mid-pricer priced at 60 averages 60, they're not going to really drop too much in price. But if...
00:06:20
Holmesy
you know let's just throw a name out there, a Rowan Marshall or a Tristan Cherry, you pick and they they go at 80 or 90 to start for the first three weeks because they get injured or they just start the season slow, then they're going to lose ah a lot of cash. Do you find that these type of players to start them it also comes with a ah big risk?
00:06:40
DC
Yeah, for sure. I do think this is where ownership um probably comes into play a little bit. I don't fully subscribe to the idea that you should never look at ownership. um Because, i yeah, I think Tristan Sherry, if Tristan Sherry comes out and averages, let's say, 102 over his first six weeks, it's obviously a bit of a disappointing start.
00:06:50
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:06:58
DC
But if 60% of coaches are on him, I don't think that's going to be the difference between you winning and losing a a hat that year. um Whereas if Roan Marshall plays round one, you decide to start Roan Marshall and he's only got 10% ownership,
00:07:11
DC
and he drops a similar amount, and maybe you've got Tristan Sherry as well, maybe that's when you start to to have issues because other people around you have avoided that. um So at the moment, I'm i'm going with Tristan Sherry. I don't think that will change. um Yeah, his run to start the season is not fantastic, ah but I do think he's potentially one of those players that can have the ability to defy the matchup odds a little bit because he does score in so many different ways.
00:07:42
DC
And we saw that with Tim English a couple of years ago when he had that huge season. Even though he was getting belted in the ruck every week, he was still getting enough ball around the ground to actually put up pretty good scores, even against the tougher matchups.
00:07:54
DC
I remember vividly that year not starting him because he had Max score in round one and he still put up 110 round one. Tristan Sherry gives me a little bit of those vibes just from watching him play. He scores in so many different ways. I think he's he's going to kind of be insulated a little bit from some of those tougher matchups, more so than other rucks anyway.
00:08:13
Holmesy
It's interesting. We're going to get into Tristan Cherry later, but we may as well we may as well touch on it now because it is ah a bit of a hot topic. So I'm in the opposite camp and it's not because I don't think Tristan Cherry is going to be the R1 or the R2. I just think it's a trading game and you really want to try and get these players at the best prices to maximize your your value and your cash gen. and I wouldn't feel comfortable putting the captaincy on him with with some of his tough matchups. And we just have to look back one year.
00:08:40
Holmesy
you know Tim English, we were all considering starting at 117 because he was the highest priced player. He just had that year and we were saying all the same things. He scores in all these different ways outside of the hit outs. What's really going to go wrong? Can he go better? And you just have to say he went 104 and he was a ah failed pick. So...
00:08:59
DC
Mm-hmm.
00:08:59
Holmesy
Yeah, i'm I'm still weighing up Tristan Cherry. I love the man. He won me draft last year. i just The maths teacher in me is worried about the statistics in that tough run to start. And yeah, if he goes at 100, it's not the end of the world, but it's not someone going to want to be captaining. And if there's some real low scores in there as well, like he had a 50 on wits last year, which I'm not saying will happen, then it is a way to get a leg up on the comp if 60% are on him.
00:09:24
DC
Yeah, no, for sure. absolutely is. and That's, ah I guess, the risk-reward that you've got to weigh up. I guess the thing with with Sherry would be that at the moment, he's ah he's a number – or the number two ruck. I think a lot of people are probably expecting he could be the top-scoring ruck this year. So if you still think that is the case, even keeping in mind that that tougher early run – um at some point you're but you're going to want to try and get to him. So even if he does have a tough run for that first five or so weeks, um it's still going to be quite difficult to get there unless you decide to go with someone like a Max Gorn and then you can maybe do that sideways move. But then is that really the the sort of trade you want to be doing five or six weeks into the season where you're looking to make proper upgrades?
00:10:07
DC
um So I think that's more the issue because I've done that in the past where I've ah faded players. I did it last year with Nick Dacos because yeah I thought he was going to struggle at the start.
00:10:19
DC
And then if you miss the boat getting on, because of injuries or whatever else, then that can be where the where the pain comes later in the season. So it's definitely ah play if you want to take that risk that he's going to drop a bit in value, but you've got to be able to then get on. And if that's only five or six weeks into the season, that's not always that easy because you're you' still waiting for your rookies to fully fatten by that point sometimes.
00:10:44
DC
um And obviously with the price tag, if he if he only drops one hundred k you're still paying up an awful lot of money to try and get there. So... ah And I guess probably the other component with Sherry as well, is and we I'm sure we'll touch a bit more on some of the other rucks, but there's not too many rucks that really jump out to me as being much, much better options at him or show a lot better value. So um I guess, yeah, throwing a bit of your old mantra back at you, mate.
00:11:11
DC
Go the set and forget if ah if there's no better option.
00:11:15
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it's and it's he's definitely someone I'm still considering. And I suppose the other part that you didn't mention, if you're looking to get him after round five, round six, when that tough run's over, you're going to want to be getting rookies off your field at that point anyway.
00:11:27
Holmesy
So you might have to go a Tom Deconing up or another value ruck that you've picked.
00:11:31
DC
Mm-hmm.
00:11:32
Holmesy
And is that the best value of a trade at at that point in the season? Probably not. So that's something we definitely have to weigh up as well. But yeah, it's interesting that there's so many divided opinions on it. Like normally with these set and forget rucks, it's there's no there's no sort of arguing about it. You know what they're going to do, but you know you're you're keen on it. I'm not so keen. It it just shows that there's lots of different opinions, so ah which is good. But Let's get into this now. So what I'm keen to hear from you is what does a ah preseason look like for DC at this point in time now leading up into opening round? So you've done all your research. You've probably played with a million different teams and structures.
00:12:09
Holmesy
What are you looking to do from this point in time right now leading up to opening round?
00:12:14
DC
Yeah, well, the like the last few years, it's ah been trying to find enough time to watch enough footy. That might not come across in the podcast because we try to keep things fairly organized and then Nathan comes in and wrecks it. But yeah, I try to get a fair bit of research done early in the season. So I sort of have a short list of players that um I'm keen to watch coming into the the matches. And then once the matches start, it's It's trying to get at least eyes on a bit of most of the matches and I won't watch too many of them in full, um but I'll try and watch a a quarter or a half here or there, even if it's just on the background and I can have a bit of a look about where players are starting in in sort of,
00:12:52
DC
center bounces and things like that are certain players on came on around stoppage, uh, halfbacks looking like they're going to be the free player that's getting the ball. It's really looking for role. Um, I do think there is some benefit to also looking at the stats now that we've got the, the official practice matches, um, understanding time on ground, understanding CBAs, I still think is, is really important.
00:13:16
DC
Um, Yeah, so that's the the sort of things I would i would look for. Try not to be too swayed, particularly by outside players in the practice match. Practice matches is is something I'll try to keep in mind. um But if the role looks like it's there and that role should be sustainable through the season, then um yeah, I think quite often that can pay off.
00:13:40
DC
But we've also seen in the past, and we've used this example a few times, I think quite a few podcasts have, but the Tom Phillips one a few years ago where he had a huge... a huge ah preseason game and everyone started him. and then he played wing the whole year and just never really got back to that.
00:13:54
DC
um Jordan Clark, I think the same year at the Cats. You do get these sort of guys popping big scores in preseason games because they're quite uncontested usually. um Even in Nick Dacos, and I know people seem to think i'm a Nick Dacos hater. He's not going to get that much time and space every week.
00:14:13
DC
And he's not going to play the Tigers every week. So he's obviously an awesome player, but... ah Yeah, are we reading... Do we sometimes read into the the scores a little bit too much?
00:14:24
DC
Probably yes. So it's it's about trying to trying to find the balance between understanding what the scoring capacity is of a player, but also not getting too excited or too down if a player scores really well or we're really poorly.
00:14:38
Holmesy
Yeah, I suppose the other thing as well with these practice matches is you've got these fringe best 22 players that are clearly trying to win their spot.
00:14:46
Holmesy
And we know that they play well in these practice games because they're going above and beyond. But then come round one, opening round, whatever it is, more often than not, it's it's pretty much business as usual for these AFL teams. They go back to roughly what they did the last year outside of maybe some players that were traded.
00:14:46
DC
Yeah.
00:15:02
Holmesy
um And these players are on the fringe last year, they're more than likely going to be on the fringe this year. So it's so it's taking into account that context. I think, I mean, you look at a Ben Hobbs, for example, scored really well last night um for Essendon, but he's trying to win his spot. I think he had eight marks in ah in a very uncontested game.
00:15:19
Holmesy
ah Durham didn't play in the midfield. Merritt played less midfield than he normally would. So you've got to take these things with a grain of salt and just understand the the context of these games.
00:15:31
DC
Yeah, that's exactly it. and Hobbs is an interesting one because we've seen him in the right role be ah a good scorer. He's definitely someone I'm interested in because he's a forward and he's he's cheap.
00:15:42
DC
um But we're going to have to see that again in round zero before anyone locks him in, I think. and And yeah, I fully agree. I think there'll be some change in round zero. I can't see Zach Merritt getting pushed too far out outside that midfield, particularly if...
00:15:55
DC
If they're trying to win games of footy, maybe if i they have games where they're they're up comfortably, then maybe that's when they play around with a little bit the structure. But he's still their best player. They're still going to want him around the ball as much as possible. So, um yeah, it it really is ah the time of the year where you're trying to work out what's real and maybe what is just an indication of ah The preseason games, because every year ah things happen in the preseason games that don't then happen in the in the main season. But there are also plenty of examples where the preseason games are an exact dress rehearsal of what happens with but specific player roles and and the way that players score. So you have to type take notice of it.
00:16:36
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. So what I thought we'd do before we get into some of the line-by-line stuff is just have a bit of a general st structure structure chat. so having followed you over the years, you've always been someone that typically likes to start less rookies than most, um at least compared to me when we've both been successful. And it's held you in pretty good stead. Are you someone that likes to build your team from the ground up and then you fill in your premiums towards the end with what you've got left over or are you someone that goes from the top down?
00:17:06
DC
ah
00:17:08
DC
I mean, probably with the amount the amount that my team sort of changes through the phrases, I'm not sure I do either of those necessarily, but I definitely put greater emphasis on probably the mid prices more than anything ah that I think are absolute smash plays.
00:17:24
DC
So I'll try to fit my structure around that because I do think if you can get a mid price, so that matches the cash generation of a rookie and can maybe get close to the point scoring of a premium, they are the players that will win you hats, when you, when you cast. So you need to make sure that you're, you're nailing as many of those picks as possible and, and,
00:17:48
DC
Coming up with a structure that will allow you to pick as many of those picks as possible. Obviously, they're hard to pick. So that's the the challenge because you you do get some duds. Been plenty of times where I thought i've I've nailed a mid-price at the start and then the role changes or or something happens ah that means that they're no longer a good pick. so A lot of the time ah it is about the mid-prices for me and and making sure I'm nailing them.
00:18:10
DC
And then having a ah decent understanding of the rookies, particularly the role. I think I probably place slightly less attention to junior scoring ability um in those first few years compared to maybe what some people do.
00:18:23
DC
um But um I'm interested in what their role is, what their job security is, even what team they're playing for a little bit. um Yeah, and then sort of filling them in with the mid prices and then it's probably the premiums last.
00:18:36
DC
But again, looking for premiums that have upside. um I think that that mantra of Selby's that you're you're looking for upside in almost every pick is ah is definitely one I try to to try to stick to as much as possible.
00:18:50
Holmesy
Yep, 100%. And you used to do this anyway, but with the the new sub rule being in and these rookies um you know getting green vests and red vests, Do you think it's it's better now to go more mid-price heavy so you can limit these guys? Like we saw last year, someone as much of a gun as Riley Sanders was getting vests.
00:19:08
Holmesy
um A lot of these first, second, third-year players all on the fringe are either getting green or red vests, which we know are absolute killers for cash gen and end up just bleeding holes in our bench.
00:19:18
Holmesy
Is that part of the reason why you try and go so mid-price heavy, knowing that you might not nail them all, but at least you're not getting these rookies that are going to be dead from a cash gen perspective?
00:19:29
DC
Yeah, I think that's definitely part of it. um i'm probably less focused on cash gen than people like DT Lemon, um which is maybe to my detriment because he's much better coach than I am. But hey yeah um yeah, I usually love trying to maximize my points on field. So so that's really where the lack of rookies comes from is that I probably try to see the upside in all the players I pick and sometimes maybe ah get overly excited by certain players and what they can do. Yeah.
00:20:02
DC
So that's where starting a lot of those mid-price picks, you you kind of think, oh, yeah, they're going to be awesome. They're going to go up 300K and be a top six forward or whatever. um That often doesn't happen. But if you can manage to pick enough of them um and you have more hits than misses, I think that's that is where you can get a leg up.
00:20:19
DC
um But, yeah, absolutely absolutely. I think the the rookies with the the vest coming back in has been a bit of a tightrope for us to walk. where you obviously need rookies in your team for the cash generation, but you don't want to be having so many that you're increasing your risk of copying those really low schools on field.
00:20:40
Holmesy
So would you say then that the downside of not having enough rookies on field and being too mid-priced heavy is that you don't feel like sometimes you you make as much cash as some of these other coaches that you know maybe take a punt on these rookies and and they come off and and they they're making more coin?
00:20:56
DC
yeah Yeah, I think that is a risk. I think even in my hat year, I was kind of holding on towards the end. It kind of showed in the last couple of rounds where I probably didn't have the cash to play with to improve my team that much. um I've had other seasons where I've had a lot of cash and come home pretty strong, but um it it is definitely a balance and it's hard to know.
00:21:17
DC
other than assessing assessing where your cash generation is at compared to other teams, whether you're actually going to have enough cash to do everything you want to do. so um And that is a ah little bit comes down to luck where you you get certain cities seasons where players suddenly become relevant at a very cheap price and then they can stay in your team for the rest of the I think of someone like a Darcy Cameron a few years ago where he got that that ruck roll and he was super cheap and everyone brought him in and he was basically a keeper for the rest the season.
00:21:43
DC
That happens pretty regularly, but sometimes it doesn't happen. And and then yeah you're kind of searching for that extra bit of cash to to finish your team towards the end of the season. So that's where that risk-reward comes in with having enough rookies um to to have enough cash gen, but sometimes having more cash gen than other people is a major advantage in the back end of the season.
00:22:07
Holmesy
Yeah, especially now with how it's changed to last year with with coaches getting 23, 24 premiums. You're not going to do that if you're not making a serious amount of cash. With your rookie, so you like to go more mid-price heavy. So say you're looking for 20, 25, 30 points from mid-pricer and to match it with the you know close enough to the top of their line.
00:22:27
Holmesy
Does that mean that for these rookie picks, unless they're going that 25, 30 points upside, you're you're less likely to pick them or... because they're priced cheaply, you might be happy to cop a 20 points upside from ah one of those higher price rookies? Or how do you see how do you sort of see the upside you're looking for from a rookie?
00:22:45
DC
Yeah, I think it definitely comes down to price as well. I think ah so the the rookie group we've got this year, there's about a 10-point price stat difference between the basement guys and some of the the top guys. So if you're expecting a ah basement rookie to average 50, that's from a ah cash gen perspective as good as ah one of the top price rookies averaging 60.
00:23:03
DC
um yeah so there There is ah a bit of a balance there in terms of the price compared to the mid prices. i mean I think this is where you need to understand why you're picking a mid price. Are you picking them primarily to be a cash generator are you picking them to try to match the the top players in the line or at least get close to that?
00:23:24
DC
um we have these rare mid-prices that do both, and Tristan and Sherry last year is a really good example, where they make more cash more cash than a lot of rookies and then are top in their line, but there's not usually that many of them each year.
00:23:39
DC
What I try to avoid with the mid prices is the players that do neither, um where they're maybe not, maybe they've got 10, 15 points of upside, but they're still 10, 15, 20 points below the top scoring players in the line. So I think that's where you get in trouble ah from a cash gen perspective is if you have too many of those players, you're not getting the points, but you're also missing out on the cash gen you could have got if you went with an extra rookie instead.
00:24:06
Holmesy
So that's I'll kind of just diverge a little bit here. So let's let's put this into a defensive line context. So we're all looking at you know players like a Harry Perryman, a Matt Roberts.
00:24:16
Holmesy
um It was Mills, but I suppose Mills was in a different ah sort of bracket because we're picking Mills because we thought he could you know go 100, 105 he's in the midfield. So are we picking a Perryman and a Roberts who might only have that sort of 15 points upside because we're so starved from options? Or are you happy enough for them to get, you know, maybe to a 90 price tag? And although it's not close to the top six last year, thinking that maybe it might be close enough this year if some of those top end guys come back?
00:24:17
DC
Yeah.
00:24:46
DC
Yeah, and I guess ah it's kind of the question of how close is close enough. um I would say if you're giving up less than 10 points a week on the top six defenders, that's a pretty good pick, um particularly in the first part of the season where no one has all of the top six defenders. So...
00:25:02
DC
um ah Yeah, I definitely think this year there is an element of these are the best options we have and maybe other seasons ah when there's more standout mid-priced options, we would be looking elsewhere.
00:25:15
DC
But guys like Imperium, I think everyone would agree there is upside there. How much is the question? If he averages 90, I think it's a pretty good pick. I think he's getting close enough to the the top six defenders there.
00:25:27
DC
If he averages 85 less, maybe that's starting to become a bit of a nothing pick where you're you're giving up a bit of a gap um and the cash generation won't be there either when he's when he's priced in the mid-70s. So it really does come down to to how you perceive each player and that's where understanding role, understanding scoring capacity, watching some of these preseason games comes into it.
00:25:48
DC
And obviously with the Perryman, with the Roberts, we're going to get to see them around zero as well, which is... which is really helpful because I think yeah the back line this season is as tough a line as I can remember for a little while in terms of there being really obvious underpriced picks.
00:26:04
Holmesy
Yeah, I'd throw the ruck line in there as well. i don't I can't remember a year where we've had two lines where it's been so difficult to pick.
00:26:07
DC
Yep.
00:26:09
Holmesy
And because of that, your midfield and your foot, well, not necessarily the forward line, but the players around that have been chopping and changing so much because the the information's just been changing so much, which is which is good for the game.
00:26:20
Holmesy
The last thing we want is a year like we had back in 2022, I think it was, where you started the five-gun ah primo forwards that all had value as top sixes and and, you know, everyone sort of had the same side, which is ah not really what we want for AFL Fantasy.
00:26:36
DC
No, it's not. Yeah, I think it's it's always more interesting when there's variation in teams. um Funnily enough, I think probably this year, the forward lines are going to be kind of similar for a lot of people as well. I think for different reasons, there's a lot of underpriced picks there this year.
00:26:51
DC
But yeah, I think... when when we get these tricky lines, it it does tend to separate the the coaches that put in a lot of work and how do I identify those picks that are underpriced um versus those that are maybe just copying other teams and and looking at ownership stats and things like that.
00:27:10
Holmesy
Are you a red dot rookie man to start the season for the the captain option or are you a 30 green dot coach?
00:27:19
DC
I can be either depending on... Yeah, the players available. I don't think I try to lock myself into one strategy there in particular. I do think having the VC option now um is quite important, but most years we we do end up getting a red dot within the first few weeks. um it yeah wouldn't happen too often where we don't have a player that's dropped or injured all or something within the first month of the season. So um I think the last couple of years I've i've started ah red dot at R3, but that that's been because we haven't had too many playing guys there. It's going to be really interesting this year to see what people do.
00:27:57
DC
If a Harry Boyd does get named, for example, um and ah and people are starting 30 green dots, what that what that does. But we saw last year with the the guys that finished up the top,
00:28:08
DC
having those really high captain averages is super important for a high ranking. And I think to answer one your first questions about what happened those couple of years that I sort of didn't go so well the last couple of years, I think 2023,
00:28:22
DC
I really struggled with captains, particularly in the first half of the year. um And I think probably averaged about 110 for the season. So over the course of a full season, that's a big gap to be giving some of the top teams.
00:28:34
DC
um So I think those captain scores are important. It's just whether you think someone like a Harry Boyd is going to generate a lot of cash ah because then that will that will make up the gap potentially later in the season.
00:28:45
Holmesy
So with your with your value strategy and hunting a lot of mid-price guys, are you still someone that likes to try and find at least one captain option where you're paying up for? Or do you, with this strategy and you spreading your cash, does that mean that you're you're maybe not starting any of these surefire captain options and that's leading to you know having to struggle early days for a captain? but What's your thoughts there?
00:29:08
DC
Yeah, I mean, even that year where I struggled early early doors, that was the year that Sam Docherty was you know the consensus number one defender and they didn't start particularly well and they got injured. And think I started Josh Dunkley in the midfield that year and he didn't go quite as well as we were expecting. So sometimes even if you do start the the top price guys in certain lines, they may be full short of expectations, um which I guess is the risk with guys like Sherry this year.
00:29:37
DC
even even Sheasel. um So, yeah, I usually try to have at least one or two captain options I'm comfortable with, but they don't necessarily have to be the top price guys. I think there's guys this year that have got really good early runs. I think Connor Rosey, for example, I think I'm pretty confident I'll start with him.
00:29:57
DC
Has a couple of really nice matchups early on. He's under a million dollars though. um He's... I think could easily match it with the the top handful of mids over the first few rounds with those matchups.
00:30:05
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:30:10
DC
So that's the the sort of picks I like to look for. But um as I said, still probably going to start with a Sherry. um I think there's there's certain safety there with the Rucks as well, given the,
00:30:21
DC
the flaw that they get from from the hit out. So you kind of know most weeks you're not going to get a real stinker. They're not going to cop a tag that's going to leave leave you with a 60 captain score that often. So um I think, yeah, the rucks are probably the place recent in recent years where most people would go for a safe captain score. So I think there's definitely something in that, in starting one of those big rucks if you worry about captaincy.
00:30:48
Holmesy
Yeah, I think if you had have had Marshall and Cherry last year, you probably would have got a 120 plus score in almost every round alternating between them if you're able to loop. So definitely agree with that one.
00:31:00
Holmesy
Let's have a bit of a chat now about early buy round strategy. So obviously last year opening round was introduced, which meant we were faced with all of these early round buys. How do you feel like you tackled them last year? Do you feel like your your strategy held up? Do you need to refine things? Like how are we going to sort of tackle this year knowing what we know about last year?
00:31:22
DC
Yeah, I think early on in the preseason last year, um ah was quite vocal about yeah really trying to limit as much as possible how many players that you would have on those buys. And sort of but remember us talking quite specifically about why they were different to the midseason buys in that ah not every player is going to get them.
00:31:42
DC
um I think I ended up... I think the probably the community in general ended up softening on that a little bit um and and going with players that were clearly of high value, um even if they did have the buy. So that's basically what I ended up doing and um even got swayed into into like the Lockie Whitfield pick, um which proved to be an outstanding starting pick for anyone that started him, um even with the buy.
00:32:10
DC
um So, yeah, I think... As I said earlier, I started pretty well last year. i think probably my buy strategy was about right, but it's hard to tell sometimes whether ah yeahre you're high up in the rankings because of certain strategic decisions or um yeah whether there's a yeah a bit of correlation there without causation, if that makes sense. so I think I'll probably do something pretty similar this year and I won't be starting any highly, highly priced players with the buy.
00:32:37
Holmesy
Mm-hmm.
00:32:39
DC
um But there there is ah a bit of a balance point there, I think, with how many players you can have with the buys as well. And I think that's going to be our risk this year with particularly that round three buy.
00:32:52
DC
by
00:32:54
Holmesy
Mate, you're an absolute pro. That was going to be my segue. So let's let's talk about that round three buy. Obviously, being different, having four teams on the buy compared to the other ah rounds with only two. and And last year, we only ever had two teams on the buy. And we've got a lot of popular players in this round three buy. Admittedly, some are starting to drop.
00:33:13
Holmesy
Is there a how many is too many argument? Are you someone that might be willing to take a bit of a haircut in that round score-wise if they end up being the players that we need them to be? Or are you still looking to really minimize the players on that buy?
00:33:27
DC
A little bit of both. I think it um similar to the discussions we usually have in mid-season around how many players you have playing during each of the mid-season bye-rounds, sometimes it's not so much how many you have playing, but how many you're comfortable are going to be in your best 18 scorers and that you would be happy to have included it in those scores. Yeah.
00:33:47
DC
Guys like Levi Ashcroft are probably saying it ah it doesn't really matter that he's got the vibe because he's a rookie anyway. you you haven't spent much money to to fit him in your team. You can probably get a rookie on field for that week that might give you ah a comparable score.
00:34:02
DC
um And then i think the other component is, and again, this is where ownership comes into it, someone like a Bailey Smith. I would say 99% of teams that are going to be contending this year going to start Bailey Smith, ah assuming he's fit, obviously.
00:34:18
DC
um So that basically cancels things out a little bit. If everyone's playing with that that same limitation for that round, then the the raw number of players you have is not the important part.
00:34:32
DC
It's how many extra players do you have on top of those super, super popular players is probably the question.
00:34:35
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:34:38
DC
Um, and how many, how many of those are highly priced would be the other part. So if you, if you're going with, you know, in the back line, maybe someone like a Zach Reed or a Jackson prior, um, from Essendon who had the following by,
00:34:52
DC
um that's probably not really that relevant. It's not really going to affect you your total score that much, I wouldn't have thought. But if you're rolling with a Perryman, a Deconing, a Roberts, maybe you had a Mills before the before he got injured, that maybe starts to become a problem because maybe you're giving up too many points in on that that one round and and you're going to struggle to make those back even if those guys are all all value. Yeah.
00:35:17
DC
um I don't think it's necessarily as simple as the raw number, but it's looking at ah the players that you're actually picking on those rounds. Are they value?
00:35:28
DC
How many other people have them, I think is also quite important.
00:35:32
Holmesy
Yeah, I think you've absolutely nailed that and and not something that's really spoken about. i mean, Isaac Heaney was the example last year. We all started Isaac Heaney or anyone that was competing.
00:35:39
DC
Yep.
00:35:41
Holmesy
And it didn't matter that he had the bye because, like you said, everyone in the comp had him. So it's just everyone's on the on the same playing field and and that's going to be the same with Baz Smith.
00:35:50
DC
Yep. Yep.
00:35:51
Holmesy
ah Levi Ashcroft, it's when you start to combine them with players that aren't as popular. So, you know, a Nick Dacos, a Will Ashcroft, if you want to be someone that goes a bit different and maybe starts ah you know a Dunkley or a Zorko because they've got those runs, then that's where it gets a little bit tricky.
00:36:08
Holmesy
So you're you're basically saying that you're happy to start these ah by players if they've got value, but someone like it a Nick Dacos, as good as he is, and even though he he could go 115 and be the highest averaging player in the comp, you're still not willing to go there on a and a Nick Dacos or even a Will Ashcroft.
00:36:27
DC
Yeah, probably closer to... like Will Ashcroft's still on my watch list. I haven't even really considered Dacos as a starting option. um and I think it just comes down to, i guess, an odds thing. like What are the odds that Nick Dacos goes that far above his starting price that you need to start him even with the early buy versus you know what are the odds that Will Ashcroft averages 100, is an outstanding starting pick? I think the odds of that happening are probably higher than Dacos, say, averaging 120 the first...
00:36:58
DC
you month, six weeks where you you have to start him, otherwise he's going to get away from you and everyone that starts him is is going to be at the top. So, um but I think that is just kind of in general, the higher price players typically have less upside.
00:37:13
DC
We were talking in the defense about looking for premiums that have three to five points of upside. like it's so It's pretty minimal really. So, ah Yeah, I would definitely be more likely to start a cheaper player or a player that I could see clearly 10, 20 plus points upside.
00:37:33
DC
um But again, that's probably a little bit different line by line because we we're obviously talking about the difficulty with the defenders. A few of them may not have that much, but then there's not that many ah other options that I can see there at least that I'm um'm that much more comfortable in starting.
00:37:48
Holmesy
Now he's injured, so it doesn't necessarily matter, but was someone like a Tom Green, that type of premium, was he someone that you'd be considering before his injury, knowing that he had the buy, but maybe there was eight to 10 points upside there and and he could be a top you know four or five mid and maybe get away if you don't start on him?
00:38:07
DC
Yeah, he he was probably one of the the guys with that, and certainly the round two buyer that I was most interested in. And a guy I've spoken a little bit about on Hatchad is Jai Caldwell, who I'm pretty bullish on on improving quite substantially from his starting price as well. He's obviously got the round four buy.
00:38:25
DC
So you do get a bit more time with him and your team before he has the buy. um But yeah, if you think there's a risk that those guys could be top-of-the-line picks and they can get away from you before their I think that's where you you need to consider starting them. But...
00:38:42
DC
Yeah, even even a cool well, like he's been in and out of my team because while I'm pretty confident he's going to go well, um going well at 100 probably makes him a bit of a nothing pick. Going well at 105 makes him a really, really good pick because he's then getting close to matching it with the top eight picks. He'll be unique at considerably underpriced. So um again, it comes back to playing the odds and understanding what is the the likelihood of this outcome happening versus this outcome.
00:39:11
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I ah like the Caldwell pick and it's it's right up your alley. and I'll admit it's not someone that I was kind of considering until the Darcy Parish news. And admittedly, I heard you say that Caldwell's probably gone past Parish now, which I think is probably the case as well. But for some reason, they just keep going back to the well with Parish. and
00:39:30
DC
Yeah.
00:39:30
Holmesy
And even last year, Caldwell was the one that missed out. So i do rate the pick. I ah know Essendon have a pretty tough run to start before by.
00:39:37
DC
yeah
00:39:38
Holmesy
So that's where it gets a bit tricky. But um I love the way that your mind thinks and you're you're sort of analyzing these players a little bit more than and everyone else. And that kind of throws me into my next segue, which is listening to you and and and hearing some stuff from you. It sounds like you might be keen to start Liam Reedy at R2. So you need to tell me, is this is this legit or is this just a bit of content DC throwing some things out there?
00:40:03
DC
ah No, he's he's ah he spent maybe a couple of days at my R2 a few weeks back. But the more I see of him, more I hear about him, the more I think about it, I'm not sure there's enough upside there at his price to make that a really worthwhile pick, given given that there there's going to be an expiry date on it as well.
00:40:24
DC
um Yeah, I think he's still going to share ruck time with Jackson. To an extent, um we saw last year where when he did play those few games, is he gave up a couple of 50s, I think. um If he does that in the first first few rounds, then it really is a nothing pick. He's not going to generate much cash, and left and then you're left with the problem of how do I get this 400, player up to a rock that i really want um The one that I was probably more excited about if he was rucking solo was a Luke Jackson this year because Freo did have that really soft early run.
00:41:00
DC
Or do have that really soft early run. um And... A lot of people started him last year when he was 10 points more expensive. So, um yeah, I'm much more interested in doing that this year if his name's solo, but it doesn't sound like he's he's going to be, even though I don't really understand that from a football sense because I think he would offer them a lot more around the ball than what really he's going to do.
00:41:21
DC
um But they're they're obviously keen to try and keep their their structures pretty consistent throughout the season. Yeah. um Yeah, so probably not one I'll go with, but um I have in the past started a ah St Kilda rookie ruck at R2 in Jack Hayes a few years ago. so And he he scored a ton on his on his first game from memory, so...
00:41:42
Holmesy
Did you start him at R2? Because he had forward status, didn't he?
00:41:46
DC
No, yeah, he was my R2 that year. um So to start the year, which was kind of nuts, and we got bit of hate for that because I think a few of us from the Hatchat pod did that ah without really talking about it in detail, but no one asked the question. So we'll talk about stuff if people ask the question.
00:42:02
DC
um So, yeah, I think if we're we're talking about lack of upside, if a board gets named, even if he's sharing with Marshall, you know, if if your average is 60, he's priced at 20 something. So there's huge upside there.
00:42:17
DC
The risk that we have now that we didn't have the year we did that is the risk of the best. So if he gets subbed out at halftime on 30, all of a sudden that's ah a real problem for you pretty quickly.
00:42:28
DC
Um, But yeah, if there was some sort of certainty that he was going to be in the team for a while to start the season and they're talking about going with two rucks and they want Marshall playing more forward, I reckon Boyd's the one are more likely to start there than Reedy. But at the moment, I would say no.
00:42:45
Holmesy
So you're you're on the record at the moment saying that you're starting Cherry, I suppose, just like a lot of us now with the the Pitnet news, you're you're back on the TDK train?
00:42:55
DC
Yeah, i think so. And again, the ownership thing there, if he's going to have 40% ownership to start the season, i can see upside there. ah You kind of just go over the crowd and take the nil or draw and then see if you can you can find better picks elsewhere that can get a like leg up on everyone else. um the The other advantage of that pick is it gets you you closer to the the top of the line, guys, um whether that's going to be a Gorn or Marshall or even a Tim English. He's probably the other one I've had in my team a little bit.
00:43:23
DC
um I can see. Some potential improvement there. I think the scary thing with with English is don't think it's super clear as to why he actually regressed last year. um So we're we're sort of picking that on the hope that he can get back to what he did two years ago.
00:43:40
DC
But because we can't fully spell out that narrative, ah there's ah there's enough unknown there, to I think, to make people uncomfortable about it. Because I really do think if there was an obvious reason that that he regressed last year, he would be the most highly owned ruck right now.
00:43:57
Holmesy
Yeah, english is English is really interesting and he's someone, he's someone's in my side at the moment, or he was in my team reveal and I think the kind of hope is that you kind of sell yourself the narrative that the reason that he regressed last year is because he doesn't get his points as a typical Ruckman. he's ah He's an extra midfielder. And when Treloar and Bont and all these players are scoring so well in the midfield, they don't need Tim English getting those extra points. But with Treloar going down, with some doubt around Ed Richards with his calf or whatever he's dealing with,
00:44:28
Holmesy
an ageing liver, maybe maybe there's scope for him to to get some more midfield points knowing that Jamar is a while away. So maybe Darcy has to play a little bit more forward. So you can sell yourself the narrative, but at the end of the day, he might just be regressing because he's regressing as a footballer.
00:44:44
DC
Yeah, i mean, it's possible.
00:44:44
Holmesy
yeah
00:44:45
DC
I still think he's ah he's a pretty good player. I think probably the other thing I i can maybe suggest is around game style shifts. I think we' we're seeing that across the AFL.
00:44:56
DC
Clubs are less bothered about possessing the football and more interested in how quickly can they they move the football forward. from one end of the ground to the other. And I remember that season that he scored that ridiculously high average. um The amount of times that you would see him drop back and pick up a cheap plus six in the defensive 50.
00:45:14
DC
I don't feel as though that that happened as much last year to my eye. um So, yeah, I think sometimes the the game style shift can affect certain players more than others. um And I think across the AFL,
00:45:29
DC
We have seen a bit of a shift away from possession-based football. um And you only have to look at the fact that we had no mids last year averaging 110. ah hundred and ten i think that's reasonable evidence of that.
00:45:42
DC
um And there's obviously a few players there that possibly would have done if they didn't cop injuries and and things like that. But I do think um the days of mids averaging 120 might be behind us
00:45:56
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah it'd be it'll be very interesting to look at that at the end of this year and and to see whether it was a trend or whether it was a ah one-off. I do agree with you there that teams are definitely trying to move the ball faster in that Collingwood, Richmond richmond style. some Some teams can't do it, so maybe that's where you know some of those teams have higher fantasy scores if they're chipping around a lot. I suppose that's what we're we're hoping with a Richmond this year, with a a Short and a Taranto if we go there. But I've got a move for you and it sounds a little bit crazy in theory, but I've had a few questions asking about it. So we've got some coaches that kind of following the blueprint of a Tom Green trade last year who they want to start Cherry for the first game against English and then they want to think about pivoting off him so that they're not there for the the difficult run and then potentially look to get him back later.
00:46:44
Holmesy
Is that something you would ever consider knowing that you consider things that a lot of other coaches really never would?
00:46:52
DC
You're calling me crazy. Is that what you're saying? So is this too crazy for me?
00:46:54
Holmesy
Yep. yep
00:46:55
DC
Yeah,
00:46:59
DC
yeah I mean, you could consider it. um And I think round two is is the time to do that sort of stuff because we don't have rookies that have generated enough cash to start upgrading. So you're typically looking to do those sort of fix-up trades that week.
00:47:15
DC
um I wouldn't like being in that situation if you knew you had to do it that week and you're potentially missing out on those really hot mid-prices that you need to get in as soon as possible or that that gun rookie that you've missed that you need to bring in.
00:47:31
DC
I think they should be your priorities early in the season. um And the other thing, as I said earlier with Sherry, even if he is slightly down on what he's priced at to start the season,
00:47:44
DC
I don't think he's going to go from 114 average to suddenly an 80 average. It's not going to be so much that it's it's going to torpedo your season completely. when ah We sort of started the pod talking about those highly priced players that bombed.
00:47:58
DC
through after you traded them in. That's kind of what a Jack Steel and a Tom Green did for those six-week periods in the last couple of seasons through the middle of the year. They went from being priced at 110 to suddenly averaging less than 90 for a long stretch. and I just can't see that happening with Sherry. I think...
00:48:16
DC
his floor is going to be too high to allow that to happen. and So even if the ceiling's not there, I still think he's going to give you ninety s most weeks at least um and could easily start with a 130, 140 against English, which probably gives him a bit of protection from those large ah price drops to start with. Yeah.
00:48:37
DC
And I guess the other side of the equation is which ruck are you going to? um Maybe you're switching him to Tim English after the first week. Maybe that's play. But I just keep coming back to that. What are the what are the better options that I have more confidence in than Sherry? and I can't really name that many.
00:48:54
Holmesy
I suppose that's what kind of makes this strategy viable though. So if you you start Cherry round one with the potential plan to trade him in round two to get away from the the tough run, if you have these mid-pricers or rookies that you've missed, you don't have to trade him because you've got Tristan Cherry and we're we're still expecting him to be an R1 or R2 despite the tough run to start.
00:49:10
DC
For sure.
00:49:15
Holmesy
So I... I think it's a ah thing to think about. You don't have to lock it in. It's not like you pick your starting team and and say you have to do it.
00:49:21
DC
ah sure
00:49:23
Holmesy
But I think it's these type of moves that savvy coaches are are thinking about these days and you get to the end of the year and the person that's driving the Hilux is speaking about his move that um propelled him up the ranks to start the year and and that could definitely be one of them.
00:49:36
Holmesy
So I like the idea of keeping an open mind but knowing that you don't have to lock yourself into it um because you're still going to have Tristan Cherry who's a gun.
00:49:45
DC
Yeah, absolutely. I think probably yeah if I'm being honest, deep down, the other reason I'm not necessarily sure it's something I would do is because I did it last year and it absolutely burnt me. so um And that that was going to someone I thought that had a lot of value. So yeah, I'd be slightly nervous about bat doing it.
00:50:01
DC
um If you don't see a really obvious option to go to, I guess is the the key part there. Because if if you trade, let's say you trade down to a Tim English after round one, and English regresses further and averages 95 for the season.
00:50:15
DC
like you're in a worse position there because you've burned a trade on it as well. and And you've lost potentially even more cash than you would have lost ah if you held on to Sherry in the first place. So, and and then you might need to try and get back to Sherry as well. So I think these sort of moves...
00:50:31
DC
um They can work in certain circumstances, but they also run the risk of ah actually being detrimental to your team as well. So again, it's a risk reward and and weighing up whether there's enough reward there to to do that that kind of move.
00:50:47
Holmesy
100% agree with that. Let's finish off with the defence now, as we spoke about the defence being the other really tricky line at the moment with value hard to find at the moment. Now that we've lost Callum Mills, how are looking to structure up in defence? Has it changed? Have you had to jig things around?
00:51:04
Holmesy
What are we thinking?
00:51:07
DC
Yeah, that one changes pretty much every day and I'm as confused as anyone really. like There's a couple of guys there that haven't changed all that much, but I don't think anyone really knows what the correct structure is there at the moment.
00:51:18
DC
um I think you can make arguments for a lot of different structures. um Yeah, at the moment, I've got a rookie sitting at D6 being Zach Reid.
00:51:31
DC
That doesn't fill me with confidence necessarily, but I am reasonably confident that he's going to play every week. um and I'd be surprised if he averages much less than 50. So if you can get a 50 average out of a D6, I don't think that's the end of the world, um given that we're going to have three of the first four rounds with best 18 anyway. So maybe you'll almost use that position as a throwaway position and accept that he's not going to be included in your best scorers.
00:51:59
DC
um And then it probably is going for... that those sort of group of guys, Bryce, in the 70s and 80s that I can maybe see getting close enough to the top six defenders um for it to not be an issue.
00:52:13
DC
But, yeah, I don't see too many guys there that I have a ah lot of confidence in will fly up in in value and be great cash generators for us. So that's probably where I'm, yeah, looking for those slightly more expensive guys who I think can can can match the top.
00:52:29
DC
Yeah. SDK, Sam DeKoening is an interesting one. um Obviously played the ruck role that we wanted to see, but ah scoring wasn't there, at least in that game. Obviously the advantage we've got with him is that we do get to see him in opening round as well.
00:52:46
DC
And I do think he's going to be a ah pretty pivotal pick whether you start him or not. um And maybe his it's going to just come down to his score in that opening round. and And whether it looks as though Reece Stanley is going to be anywhere near the team or not.
00:53:00
Holmesy
Yeah, let's let's deep dive there a little bit because we're all sort of interested in Sam Deconing because of a small sample size last year where he was the the solo ruck. I think the the number is ah about an 87 average for the games that he he played as solo ruck.
00:53:15
Holmesy
um And admittedly, the one game where he got a 60 last year, I believe, was against Essendon as well, which is a ah tough matchup for Rucks as it is. So maybe we don't really look at his scoring last night and we just look at role. But what we did see was almost a 50-50 split between SDK and then Blitzarbs and Neil around the ground, which I'm not sure we're going to get the scoring required if he's only that 50% Ruck. I think we'd need a lot more.
00:53:43
Holmesy
And you're right, with Reece Stanley, what do we know about Geelong? We know absolutely nothing about Geelong except that they rotate players like no other club. If we pick him and then two rounds in, Reece Stanley's in as a horses for courses, he's an absolute dud pick.
00:53:58
Holmesy
And you're right, he's going to be pivotal and I'm i'm still unsure. But did last night fill you with more confidence or less confidence?
00:54:07
DC
No, probably less, I think. He's out of my team at the moment. But, yeah, I agree with you fully. Like, with what we've seen with with Geelong in the last few seasons, particularly in the ruck line, they're very happy to play horses for courses, as you put it.
00:54:22
DC
um And, yeah, I can just see against some of those tougher ruck match ops matchups, they may want someone that's going to get closer to breaking even in the hit outs and in the stoppages.
00:54:34
DC
Yeah. The other side to him as well is that I think he's going to give away a lot of freeze, which has a as a ruck that we're looking to go probably 80 to be a good pick, 75 at least.
00:54:49
DC
If he's losing 15 points a game because he's giving up freeze, that's going to make that quite difficult. He's going to have to find a lot of... a lot of the ball around the ground because he's he's not going to get a lot of hit outs against most Ruckman. So I definitely have, yeah, some concerns there about how consistent his scoring is going to be able to be.
00:55:07
DC
and I do think he will be affected a little bit by by matchup. What is it in his favor is that he's got Fremantle round one who obviously i have their own their own ruck concerns. So even if he comes out round zero and doesn't score particularly well, I'd be surprised if they then go with two rucks for the either Reedy or Jackson matchup because I don't think that would have any of the jo Geelong ruckmen shaking in their boots looking at that game coming up.
00:55:37
Holmesy
Yeah, I suppose the interesting thing about round zero is he has big O. So they're playing Brisbane, which you'd think that he's going to have less than 10 hit outs probably.
00:55:42
DC
Yeah.
00:55:46
Holmesy
There's not going to be many on offer. So give me an over or under.
00:55:48
DC
Could you start him if he dropped to 60 in round zero?
00:55:50
Holmesy
That's what's going to be my question.
00:55:51
DC
Yeah.
00:55:52
Holmesy
What's the over or under in terms of the score in round zero to start him, knowing that a bit of game theory comes on.
00:55:52
DC
Yeah.
00:55:57
Holmesy
If he if he does have a 60, a lot of the comp are going to jump off. Does that make you more inclined to start him or less?
00:56:05
DC
Oh, yeah, it's a good question. um i think I think probably less because i think he's one of those picks where you are – you are picking him primarily to be a cash generator as well.
00:56:18
DC
I don't think anyone's thinking that he's going to match the top defenders in the line. um So you are picking him there to generate cash. um And if he's coming in basically with his price, not having moved effectively after that round zero game,
00:56:33
DC
Yes, he might have a good game then against Frio, but his price movement effectively is is only going to be one game's worth instead of two. And then he rolls into the Saints. So if if they're rolling with two rucks, that's not going to be an easy matchup either. Even if it's just Marshall, um Marshall's going to be able to go with him around the ground and then he's got the bye. So...
00:56:53
DC
um Yeah, if you're not getting much cash generation out of him before he's by, I would say it's a bit of a failed pick because that is the primary reason you're picking mid-pricer like that.
00:57:05
Holmesy
Yep, 100% would agree with that. I don't really want to pick him at this point in time, but with the lack of options, he's still there.
00:57:12
DC
Yeah.
00:57:13
Holmesy
um it's the The options, I mean, let's let's talk some of them. So, I mean, have you considered a ah Harry Sheasel, just locking him away, or is he someone that hasn't really crossed your mind with the price tag?
00:57:25
DC
He was in my side a fair bit ah early in the preseason. And then just the more I think about it, the the more I struggle to see him matching that price, that figure. At least with Sherry, I can see how he can he can match that um for the season.
00:57:41
DC
um Sheezle would have to be probably the highest averaging mid in the game to average that. And I think with the... with the talk of him playing a bit of time forward and ah quite a few guys going through that midfield. It sounds like Tom Powers had a really good preseason. They've brought in Luke Parker.
00:58:01
DC
Elder U's obviously still there. Will Phillips is still around. Wardlaw's going to come back at some point. um Wouldn't surprise me if his his role gets switched around a little bit, almost ah a little bit like Jordan Dawson last year, um where he can play multiple different roles.
00:58:16
DC
um Obviously, if he goes back to halfback, then happy days. But if he's playing off... Half forward is probably not so good. So um yeah, I can just create enough reasons why he's not going to average what he's priced at.
00:58:30
DC
um But as you said, there's there is a real lack of other options. So if you if you're confident that he's going to be the clear number one defender and you can see him averaging even 107, 108, then maybe it's worth going there even if he's going to drop a little bit of cash. But yeah.
00:58:47
DC
Personally, I could see a wider range of outcomes there. I could see him averaging closer to 100 if he ends up spending a lot of time off half forward. um I don't think he's so good a player that he would be immune to playing a less fantasy-friendly role. So, um yeah, he's a really interesting one because he's he's super highly priced, but at the moment that's one that I'm... Sorry, super highly owned, but at the moment that's one that I'm i'm happy to to go against the crowd and and hope that he does have a couple of quieter games in there.
00:59:17
Holmesy
So if you're not keen to start a Harry Shiesel, is there anyone in that sort of D1 price range that youre you're looking to start? I've looked at a Nassai Wanganin-Milera with Sinclair going down. I mean, Sinclair was there for a lot of my preseason before the hamstring injury, and I still think he's a good player and a good option if he gets up, but it's hard to pick him off the hammies.
00:59:37
Holmesy
Nassai or Bailey Dale or someone around that price tag, someone you're interested in, although Bailey Dale's injured, isn't he?
00:59:43
DC
Yeah, so it sounds like he's going to be struggling for round one as well. So, yeah, injuries everywhere. But, yeah, so my D1 at the moment is Wayne Miller. It has been for a few weeks now, I think. um Yeah, I actually moved him in there after we heard the Philippou news because my thinking was that Sinclair was probably going to spend more time in the midfield with that happening.
01:00:01
DC
um Obviously, it's bit hard to tell at the moment because he's injured, but um I just think with what we've seen from Wangan and Miller, the consistency that we started to see from him last year as well, um yeah, i can I can't really see where where he regresses.
01:00:15
DC
um So even if we do only get that two or three points upside, think he was in the top 10 defenders last year anyway. Maybe that's enough to get him to the top six where we're expecting a bit of regression from other players.
01:00:27
DC
um So I think that's a ah pretty safe pick, even though, yeah, there's maybe limited upside there still. So he's what I'm going with at the moment.
01:00:38
Holmesy
Yep, beautiful. I'll try and pry a little bit more out of you. So some of these players in the sort of 70s to 80s range that we're we're considering.
01:00:46
DC
Yep.
01:00:46
Holmesy
I know we've already spoken about a Harry Perryman, a Matt Roberts. Jaden Short's the obvious one. I haven't watched the game yet, but scoring would suggest that he had the role tonight. So I need to go back and watch that. But we're all expecting him to really be able to play off half back.
01:01:03
Holmesy
Who else are we looking at? I'm keen on a Trent Rivers, but I want to see how the midfield lines up with Viney and Petrarca back. Who else in this sort of range are we looking? you know Colby's playing forward now, so he's he's looking to be out.
01:01:17
Holmesy
My boy, Cicely, is going to be playing forward. That was fun for about 24 hours. like We don't have a lot of options.
01:01:21
DC
Yeah.
01:01:23
Holmesy
Where are we looking?
01:01:25
DC
ah Yeah, I think all those guys you mentioned, yeah, so I've got Rivers in my team at the moment as well, but I agree we need to see that again. But I just think, again, this is where the eye test comes into it, and I think that's sort of similar with Wayne and Miller as well.
01:01:38
DC
Some of these younger guys, you do see larger changes from year to year in terms of the way they look as footballers, and I think those guys are are still on upward trajectories, and I think Rivers is one of those guys that I think even if he is the fourth mid,
01:01:56
DC
um yeah, if that split is sort of more of 50% CBA split instead of a 30, then I can see him averaging 90 in that sort of role. I think there's quite a few examples of teams where you've you've had multiple or more than three players sort of average pretty well um with sharing midfield time. So he's one i'm I'm keen to see, but pretty bullish on, and he also doesn't have the early buy, which is an advantage. Short, as you said,
01:02:23
DC
um looked pretty good in that game, had the role. The other thing to take from that preseason game is that Collingwood would been very accurate. So he only took a couple of kick-ins. um So I would expect that he's going to get a lot more kick-ins than that throughout the season, which is going to give him a nice buffer there as well.
01:02:41
DC
The one that's probably a little bit more spicy, and he's been in and out of my team a little bit, he's in at the moment just because I don't like... not fully comfortable with options like an SDK um is Dan Rioli because I think that Gold Coast half back line is a ah pretty fruitful place to get fantasy points.
01:03:02
DC
We saw that last year with Flanders and and even guys like Sexton. And I do think he's going to be the number one guy back there. Obviously, the major issue is that he's got that round two bye.
01:03:13
DC
But if he if he comes out in in round zero um against the Bombers and puts up a huge score off half back, there is a risk that he can then start to get away from you or at least lose that bit of value that he might have by the time he's had his bye.
01:03:28
DC
So i'm I'm pretty keen...
01:03:29
Holmesy
has the Eagles in round one as well, doesn't he?
01:03:31
Holmesy
Your boys at Optus Stadium. So...
01:03:31
DC
He does, yeah, at Optus, which is a big round.
01:03:33
DC
So, yeah, I do think he's one that has a bit of upside, and I think he'd be much more highly owned if if it wasn't for that buy. But um it's probably, again, kind of come down to what he scores in round zero.
01:03:45
DC
If he drops a 120, reckon there's a pretty good chance I'll start him. If he drops an 80, then maybe he's not going to get away from you by the time you can pick him up in round three. Yeah. He's one I'm keen to watch. um Perryman, I think, is iss probably going to be a safe enough pick, even if I'm not sure he's going to have quite the upside of a few other guys. But um yeah, they're probably most of the guys in that price range. Farrell's maybe the um other one as well. I'm just not quite sure about him necessarily as ah as a fantasy player, but um certainly worth watching again as well.
01:04:15
Holmesy
Perfect. Now, we've gone over the hour. I'm mindful for time, but there's just one more quick topic I want to touch on, and that's this Adelaide midfield. So what is going on with this Adelaide midfield?
01:04:22
DC
Yep.
01:04:24
Holmesy
We look at the team's name for tomorrow, and admittedly, we don't look at teams too much, but you've got Peatling named in a forward pocket. It's looking likely that the main midfield rotation is going to be Dawson, Saligo, Crouch, Rankin, and then maybe Peatling is that fifth, and maybe they really spread it like a Port Adelaide-style midfield.
01:04:46
Holmesy
Is he someone that you'd pick, even if he's only getting that 40% to 50% CBAs, or would you need a little bit more from him?
01:04:54
DC
Yeah, it's a tough one because yeah this kind of comes down to how much you believe that scoring correlates with centre bouncers. And we obviously know from, ah I guess, a population wide, if you look at all the AFL players, it doesn't correlate particularly well. But I do believe for individual players, it can correlate quite well.
01:05:14
DC
um Peatling's one, I think, that even if he's not in the centre bouncers, he's probably going to still be around the ball a fair bit. um I can see him playing that half forward role where he then pushes up and becomes the fourth midfielder.
01:05:30
DC
um If you look at the other guys that they've they've got in the team that are likely to play midfield, I can see Rankin playing that role potentially as well. But he is so dynamic, Rankin, in center bounces that maybe that's why they're going to have him in there ahead of someone like Peatling.
01:05:45
DC
Dawson can obviously play different roles. Saligo might get pushed out to wing. um Crouch is probably the one that can only really play in there. um but I do think they can make it work with with five mids. It just means it might be a more even split. As you said, the the Port Adelaide example,
01:06:01
DC
um those guys all still scored pretty well last year. If you got an 85 average out of Peatling, it's still 20 plus points upside. It's not a horrible pick. um He's still going to make a fair bit of cash doing that. He can probably stay on your team for the first six weeks or so.
01:06:16
DC
i can't see him going too much lower than that. And then the other side of it is as well, if he's playing off half forward a lot, he potentially gets forward status. So that that'll come in, what is it, after round six or before round six.
01:06:30
DC
So maybe if it looks like that there being a chance of that happening, um you can hide behind that possibility as well and then flick him forward. But um yeah, he's is's in ah my team. He's been in my team for a while.
01:06:43
DC
I think he's one of those picks that we're picking primarily to be a cash generator. Yeah. In the best case scenario, he might get close to matching the top of the line because I think he's got a really good fantasy game about him. He tackles.
01:06:56
DC
He finds enough of the pill. um But it looks as though with the cattle they're going to have in there, they're going to have to share it around a bit.
01:07:03
Holmesy
Yep. Perfect, mate. DC, thank you so much for jumping on. Really appreciate it. I know it's very late and probably cold there in Canberra. Just as we as we wrap up.
01:07:11
DC
That's pretty hot, actually.
01:07:13
Holmesy
Oh, it's hot. There you go.
01:07:14
DC
Yeah, one day the year.
01:07:14
Holmesy
um just as we Just as we wrap up, why don't you let the listeners know what Hatchat has in store for us in 2025? Surely there's a Hatchat Patreon going on with with all you boys over there.
01:07:26
Holmesy
any Any news?
01:07:28
DC
No, no, no Patreon. The, uh, the issue with Patreons is that we then have to make more content and, uh, we struggle, struggle enough getting, getting us to, uh, do one podcast a week at the moment. So, um, no, we'll, we'll basically continue on as we have been. And, um, we, we do the podcast because we enjoy it. And, uh, it's, it's our weekly escape over the winter to just chat shit with each other. And it just happens that people seem to want to listen to it as well. So, um,
01:07:55
DC
yeah, butll we'll just basically continue on as we've been doing the last couple of years. We will kick off the spaces again, um pretty soon as well, which, um, yeah, we've been doing for years now.
01:08:06
DC
Um, so they're, they're always Wednesday nights at 9 PM Eastern. and Um, so you're welcome to come and listen in with those live, uh, ask us questions and we'll, we'll try and make that more about people's teams, um, and helping people with their teams rather than just chatting chatting about the general topics. So, um,
01:08:25
DC
They're always a lot of fun and a little bit more little bit more off the cuff, a little bit more casual. um But yeah, other than that, the weekly podcast will run all the way through the season until the end. and I'm sure we'll come up with the other stupid bits and random North Melbourne players to celebrate for some reason.
01:08:43
Holmesy
Nah, nah, perfect, mate. And to everyone else, I hope you got a lot out of that. Like I did, these are always super fun to record. As always, make sure you're following us on Twitter at PodPodAFL. I'm at HolmesesHeroesDC. Where are you at?
01:08:57
DC
Yeah, you can find me at DC Caterpillars and you can find the Hatchat podcast at Hatchat afl
01:09:02
Holmesy
Beautiful. Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your content. We'll be back on Monday with a huge wrap of all of the practice games and everything you need heading into round zero. But for now, enjoy the footy this week and we'll chat soon.