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The Holmes Files - Strategy Chats with the Value King DT Lemon #PODPOD
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Holmesy continues his one-on-one interview series where he chats with some of the brightest minds in the AFL Fantasy community. Up next, the value king DT Lemon!
DT Lemon is known for his skills for building insane team values and competing at the pointy end of AFL Fantasy. He boasts finishes of 3rd in 2021, 284th in 2022, 32nd in 2023 and 375th in 2024. With two hats and no finishes outside of 400 in the last 4 years, DT Lemon has the pedigree of being up there with the best AFL Fantasy coaches.
On this episode, Holmesy and Lemon take you on a journey as they deep dive and discuss key strategies of successful AFL Fantasy coaches. Lemon reveals his secrets of how he hunts value, builds squads and ultimately competes for the car. They also discuss key structure across all lines, players of interest and much, much more! This is one for the ages!
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Transcript
Introduction and Episode Focus
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Bodits. Holmes are here talking all things AFL fantasy classic for you on this Thursday 30th of January.
Guest Introduction and Expertise in AFL Fantasy
00:00:27
Holmesy
Back for another episode of The Holmes Files and I have another bumper guest for us today. A man that I enjoy talking to just about more than anyone. It's been a bit of a staple we we get on and we have these chats early in the pre-season.
00:00:40
Holmesy
the community to know him as the value king, DT Lemon, who builds a ah team value more than just about everyone, every single year. Lemon, thanks for jumping on, mate. Glad to have you. How have you been?
00:00:51
Lemon
Yeah, thanks for having me, Holmsey. Yeah, I've been good. it's ah It's been a, had a bit of time off over over Christmas, but then I've been back into it researching and honestly can't wait for football to start. So yeah, it's, I'm really excited for this year. I think it's it's going to be a really, really interesting year.
00:01:09
Holmesy
Yeah, look, i'm I'm really looking forward to
Preseason Strategies and Value Emphasis
00:01:11
Holmesy
it as well. and There's new information coming out almost daily at the moment and that's that's changing the way we need to think about things, which is which is really good. But for for some of our new new listeners that might not be aware of who you are and what you've done, why don't you just give us a little bit of your fantasy background.
00:01:26
Lemon
Yeah, so I started playing fantasy seriously. I've always played, but but seriously, maybe sort of four or five years ago, four years ago, I had had my best year by a mile finishing third, a couple of points behind you and I think seven points behind the car. So that was a pretty a pretty difficult ending to what was a pretty good year, but yeah, still stoked to finish third that year. And then since then I've had a a few good finishes as well. So won a ah second cap in 2023, had a few top 400 finishes in the in the gaps as well. So yeah, I've been pretty, I guess, yeah, and enjoyed it and spent a lot of time researching and and watching football and I just, I love it now. So yeah, that's that's sort of my my history. Yeah.
00:02:12
Holmesy
Yeah, look, two two hats, including third in 2021, just behind me. It's been a while since since we've shared the the top five, but like you said, nothing outside of the top 400 in the last four years is consistency right up there with the best. clearly Clearly, you know what you're doing when it comes to it, and you've got your your systems and yeah and your setups.
00:02:32
Holmesy
You just touched on it then. Are you someone that likes to to watch a lot of football during the season or, you know, you look at the stats and and you get your team set up and then you go from there?
00:02:37
Lemon
Thank you.
00:02:41
Holmesy
What's your sort of process when you're playing the game?
00:02:44
Lemon
Yeah, I think definitely definitely watching a lot in the preseason is super, super important. So I try and see a little bit of every preseason game I can um at least the first quarter or two just to sort of see how teams are setting up and and who they like in which positions. But then I think also, you know, across the season.
00:03:03
Lemon
Yeah, the first the first couple of rounds, it's super, super important to see how teams are playing in the actual season. um see See where guys are when when they're actually playing for points. Because we know preseason games sometimes, they're just managing players, they're trying a few different things.
Partnership Announcement and General Strategies
00:03:17
Lemon
ah They play pretty bruise-free football in the in the preseason as well. So that definitely changes when they start playing for points.
00:03:23
Lemon
And yeah, I just love watching football. So I'll watch a couple of games every week, sort of with or without fantasy. And then with the fantasy, I think like a lot of coaches out there, you just end up watching some of these ah games that you could never, ever watch otherwise. But when you have a few players playing, it's ah it's amazing how much fun they are.
00:03:42
Holmesy
Yeah, absolutely. Although my wife probably doesn't see it in the same way that, yeah, absolutely. Guys, before we before we get into this episode, I just have a bit of an announcement to make from the Pod Pod. So we've joined up with a platform called Q platform. So it's a ah platform that allows ah listeners to be able to ask us here at the Pod Pod questions.
00:04:05
Holmesy
um Basically, it's going to help us and support us and and keep the lights on. it It's not easy easy to do a podcast and and we really appreciate the community that we have. So if you want to go over and check that out now, it's askmeonq, which is qu.com slash podpodafl. The link will be in the show descriptions below and you'll have the ability to to ask us the team review, trade requests, captains, vice captains, or or any other questions you want to ask.
00:04:32
Holmesy
ah Like I said, it's really just going to help support us here at the Pod Pod and and make sure we we want to be able to give back as well. So go check that out. It's going to be live now and really looking forward to the season ahead in 2025, Lemon. But that's not what we're here to talk about today. So we're going to have our traditional strategy discussion. But before we get into ah line by line, we're just going to have a bit of a ah general strategy discussion. So you're someone that's known for building insane team value. i know ah Back when I just beat you, you still had a team value that was about a million more than myself and everyone else that was around the market. Even last year, although you didn't go to your extreme heights, you still had some amazing team value early on. What is your sort of strategy over the first six rounds to ensure that you get off to the best possible start in terms of your team value?
00:05:23
Lemon
Yeah, so I think ah particularly early on, you know probably the first six to 10 rounds, I'm um almost entirely looking at at value in players. So I don't care too much about points on field. I don't care too much about how far away I am from the from the top hundred or the top 10 or whatever it is you're trying to achieve.
00:05:42
Lemon
I'm really just looking at how do I bring in players that have the most potential and how do I trade out players that have that I think have topped out or maybe they've got downside or maybe they just they're the the player in my team with the least amount of value still left. So I think that that first with that starting team and also the first six weeks, that it's so pivotal. That's when the price has moved the most.
00:06:04
Lemon
That's when you find these guys with 30, 40 points upside. I think it's so pivotal that you jump on them as quickly as possible. Ideally, you want to be starting all of those massive gainers in your starting team and then you're just picking up the one that maybe the smaller ones that you missed with your first couple of trades in in those first few rounds. Particularly, probably the first three rounds, I think. That's really when you you have the opportunity to to correct your mistakes on guys that you've missed.
Rookie Picks and Cash Building Strategy
00:06:29
Holmesy
So you're purely about just making sure that if a mid-pricer presents that is going to be that knockout pick, you you're just cutthroat, you're trying to get across to them as soon as you can. Any rookie that comes out of the woodworks that looks like they're a must-have, you're just more than happy to just quickly cut ties, even if, say, you know a mid-pricer that you had performed okay, but not necessarily at that level, you're just going to jump across, or is there more to it than that?
00:06:56
Lemon
Yeah, I think it's it's um it's it's hard to simplify it just like that. But essentially, but essentially yeah, you know last year, Ollie Dempsey was one guy that I pretty quickly realized he had 30, 40, maybe 50 points upside. and um And so I think I traded him in after the first round um because I just didn't want to miss out on that. He's the kind of guy that can put on 100K in a week with that juicy roll and and a really low price. So I think you you have to be really um you have to be really quick to jump on these guys some of these guys if you wait a week you might miss out on 50 100 k so um these guys that could get away from you i like to bring them in and that that sometimes means that i have 200 k sitting on the bench 300 400 k sitting on the bench sometimes so um
00:07:41
Lemon
that That's something that I'd probably different with a lot of people. A lot of people have the attitude where you've got to spend your money. um But for me, I'm happy to keep a bit of money in the bank if it means I get these these guys that are going to go up in yeah pretty quickly at 400K. So um you know like a cherry last year, if you if you didn't jump on him pretty quick, he got away from you and then all of a sudden you've got to pay up premium rates for him. So I think that's that's probably where i where I sit. And I think I'll probably sit there again this year.
00:08:12
Holmesy
Yeah and you're someone that finds a way to kind of get ahead of the comp as well in terms of bringing those players in. I still remember it distinctly last year um talking to you. ah You got onto Sam Closie when he was basement last year when and not a lot of the competition did and admittedly it paid off really well because Closie came out and had a 90 or a ton and and went up 50k but You just went bang, got him in early. That meant that the comp next week was then all chasing closely. You'd already got his points plus his cash rise and then you were able to get on Will Graham instead the next week and then the week after and you were able to snowball. So is that something that you're you're more than happy to do? Because traditionally I've sort of stayed away from the basement guys early because if they come in for one and then they're out, then you've got nowhere to go. They're just a red dot that you can't really move, but you seem more than happy if they're the right player to just go bang.
00:09:03
Lemon
Yeah, I think it is it is risky. you know We've all been caught out jumping on a basement rookie and they play one or two games. Maybe they get sucked out and then all of a sudden you're stuck with a red dot. But I think particularly when there's a few that debut in the same round. So when we had Will Graham and Closie come in, I knew that if if they both had the right role and they played a few weeks, they were going to score well and I'd want both of them.
00:09:26
Lemon
so for me i wasn't i wasn't willing to wait a week on both and then have to try and bring in two of them in the same round or like a few people did you know maybe they missed out on will gram all together um and he was a he was a great cash generator so um for me i think that's where you've got to look two or three weeks ahead if there's two rookies that debut in the same round and you think they're both going to be guns you probably need to take one of them early so that you can get the next one the next week. And it also leaves you options for bringing in someone else. So there might be another rookie that deboos next week. um you know It's just trying to find that cadence that that um that you're comfortable with and your team's comfortable with. I think probably the the big thing where I differ with a lot of other coaches as well, I'm ah i'm a huge advocate of a double
Handling Early Buy Rounds
00:10:07
Lemon
downgrade. I think I've done it every year in the last four years. um maybe Maybe one, maybe even two sometimes, one later in the year just to sort of build up that cash.
00:10:15
Lemon
And that's something that I think if you know like last year if if some of these coaches that didn't bring in Will Graham I think they're probably kicking themselves that into a double downgrade um He ended up scoring just as well as some of the mid prices in the defense line same with closey But you could have got him for under 300 K So I think that's that's something that yeah those those guys that can really jump up 100 K in a week I think you just have to own them
00:10:41
Holmesy
Yeah, look, the double downgrade is is definitely something i I need to mentally consider a little bit more. I know there's that psychological mindset of needing to improve your your field your team on field every single week, but I mean, especially in luxury trade season, how many times do we hear, oh, the trade-ins I did actually went worse than the players I had on field before. So just because you do a double downgrade doesn't necessarily mean that your team's not going to go as well because you're not upgrading on field. Maybe it's a little bit different in upgrade season when that trade you were going to use was potentially going to get a rookie off field, but yeah it's definitely a way to get the cash going and and differentiate as well.
00:11:21
Lemon
I think the the year before there was Alex Cincotta I think came in um first game, basement rookie. He was covering for Adam Saad, I believe it was. And a lot of people said, oh, you can't bring him in straight away, ah first game rookie, who knows what he's going to score. But he had a clear role. He had proven scoring in the VFL. And he was basically just coming in as a direct replacement for Adam Saad. And I think he scored 80 or 90 points on Dubu, which is better than most of the other options we had in defence. And you've saved that money, which then you can spend the week after, or you you may have even been able to spend it that week. So sometimes just because a guy's cheaper,
00:11:56
Lemon
doesn't mean he's going to score worse than a more expensive guy. We we we really need to um yeah think look at match-ups, look at what they what they would do if they played that role in the AFL because yeah sometimes the best roles go to the rookies. but We've seen that with Harry Sheasel.
00:12:12
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, very interesting. that The price tag is just ah just a price tag. It doesn't actually reflect on um what they're going to do. that's ah That's a great point. So last year we know was different. We had the round zero for the first time, which meant we were dealing with the the early buy rounds. Did your early season strategy change too much from the blueprint you've set up over the the last sort of four years?
00:12:36
Lemon
Yeah, last year was was really tricky and I think you know we're all learning how to handle these early buy-arounds. The mid-season buy-arounds are changing a little bit this year as well, so every year there's always a bit of a curveball that coaches need to adjust to.
00:12:48
Lemon
um ah think ah tried not to not to change the strategy too much with the early buy rounds. I still try to grab those value guys, even if they were going to miss a week. And we've got to remember that these are opening round players. They still technically get the same cash gen. If anything, they get it a bit quicker um because they get they get that double price rise in the first week. So in terms of cash generation, you can't just ignore them. um You just have to sort of factor in those points that you lose when they're not there. So for me, um
00:13:19
Lemon
I guess the big change that I'm just I need a little bit more from from those guys who are missing a week um in terms of value than another guy just to account for the week that they miss so I'm i'm still happy to pick a few of them um maybe even quite a few this year but I think they need to have that
Mid-season Strategy Transition
00:13:37
Lemon
extra you know two to five points of value than the other guy you're going to pick.
00:13:42
Holmesy
Yeah, you just also just need to maybe have a look at matchups for the rookies that are going to come on field for that particular week. um If you can swing a good matchup for a rookie and get a double hit at it, it might not necessarily be that much of a ah points hit. Clearly, it's going to be ah a bit of a points hit, but you might might get lucky.
00:13:59
Holmesy
Do you feel like you played opening round like the start of the season as well as what you normally have? Because you you had a very good season, but it wasn't quite to your lofty heights. Do you feel like you set yourself up well enough or do you need to tweak things a little bit to to really be at the pointy end like you have been in the past?
00:14:16
Lemon
i was I was pretty happy with how I handled opening round last year. I think a lot of people got got into guys like know Connor Butterick. I think I sort of saw through that hype a little bit from watching the game. um And also it did allow me to jump off a guy. I was i was going to be starting Errol Goulden last year and i ah what I saw in opening round.
00:14:37
Lemon
a terrible score, um plus didn't look like he was in that sort of juicy role just straight away. So um it allowed me to jump off a guy like that, who I then brought in pretty much, I think it was like round six or seven and got all of the value there anyway, just got them for a cheaper price. So I think that's that's the big one you need to be ah thinking about with opening round. is if If these guys, you know, if Tom Green drops a 50 in opening round, well guess what? He's going to be really nice and cheap for um just after his buy or a couple of weeks after his buy. so
00:15:12
Lemon
um you know you sort of want to be factoring that into to the information. Also a guy you know ah a guy who drops a really good score, how much cash are they going to make in in the first couple of weeks until they're by? Can you even flip them out there by? That's something that a few people did last year. I think it works really well. um So yeah, I think that's that's another one as well, which we we just get that sort of free look at the cash generation and then you can sort of set your team up from there.
00:15:39
Holmesy
Yeah, the the flipping at the buy strategy was was definitely one for the faint hearted. It worked for Chris last year. ah Maybe it's a little bit different this year because the buy rounds are so condensed. Like you got, ah you know, someone with a round six by last year, I think it was Essendon in Melbourne.
00:15:54
Holmesy
you had so much more time for them to make their money and then jump off. Whereas this time you're looking at round four. So if you are picking a mid price from Hawthorn or Essendon, maybe, maybe they haven't had enough time to make all the cash. But then again, you like to jump across pretty quickly. And I've heard you say in the past that you don't necessarily need your rookies to be fully fattened or your mid prices. If if the next one comes along, you're more than happy to jump. So, yeah, definitely, definitely like that strategy. And there's there's still a lot to play out. Yeah, really looking forward to opening round.
00:16:25
Holmesy
We had a, we had a question from JD and bit of a, bit of a lemon theme. So he wants to know, uh, just like you'd prune a lemon tree, what strategies have you kind of pruned over the years that you might've used early days, but, but now you sort of not really, uh, looking at too much.
00:16:41
Lemon
Yeah, I think it's a great question. I think, yeah, that that that first year where I i finished third, i I was pretty much set on team increasing my team value every single week up until maybe two or three weeks to go. And then I got there, I just i kept ah kept thinking I'd i'd get in get in front and I just couldn't quite get there and then you know falling seven points short, I think.
00:17:03
Lemon
the the big change that i've done the last few years is that i focus on cash generation early and then you know around about the mid-season buys that's when i start to focus on just getting points on field and there's a bit of a transition zone there as well depending on how quickly our teams um jump up in in price and i think that's the real the real shift that you know if i'd done that earlier in 2021, I might have been able to get there. um But definitely it's helped me in the last three years just just um transitioning from that chasing value to then how do I get points on field and and that you know that involves picking guys who you think will be top top of their line.
00:17:41
Lemon
um you know picking guys who you think might have a good stretch of match ups or maybe have got a nice juicy role for a few weeks um that kind of thing and and not so much worrying about missing rookies at the end there so you know guys like Lawson Humphries last year I i never got on because I didn't think I could actually use the cash that he was going to generate. As it turned out, he was probably a pretty good scorer and might've put some points on field for me as well. But um yeah, stuff like that, just just slowly over the year, you have to sort of adjust your strategy depending on where you're sitting. um Some people will will need to chase value all year ah because they're just struggling to get that team value up. But other people, if you get the team value up early, you can then sort of you know grab a couple of basement rooks and just go hard on points.
00:18:25
Holmesy
Yeah, that that getting points on field earlier, I think is something that has definitely changed with the way the game's been played now with the rolling lockout. Like I remember ah both of my years in the top 10, you know, it was a slow build up until the buyers and then the buyers hit and then ah it was just steamrolling home with all the value being, that would be put on field. but You had Matt Mottram, I think, hit the top 10 early in like round three or round four and then be there for the entire year. Last year you had Tom and Chris both. Well, Tom was up there for from about round three or round four and and Chris from round six or round seven. these These coaches now are so savvy that not only are they building team value, but they're also getting the points on the board from the very start. And if you're not actually competitive early, ah you're just too far behind and you you can't catch up. AFL fantasy is so tough these days. so
00:19:16
Holmesy
what What strategies can we use early to make sure we are generating team value, but we're also hunting points to make sure we're maximizing our on-field success as well? Because if you if you don't, you're gonna be left behind.
00:19:28
Lemon
Yeah I think that's that's the the trickiest part and and you know anyone can create ah a really high team value just by picking a lot of rookies and cheap players but in the end they're not going to score your points on field ah like other teams and you're going to be too far behind to to even have a chance of of competing. So I think that's where these guys um the The guys with value at the top of their line are so important so last year it was you know guy like Max Gorn I think Super super important a captain option he had I don't know what it was 20 points upside probably 30 points in that first part of the year um And you didn't need to trade him you just locked him in there at our one and he scored points But he also came like came up in value and those guys are super super important so um you know where we say a rookie might need to improve by 30 40 points if you can get 10 points out of the top of the line guy that is massive that's that's almost just as good as a guy that goes up 400k from a rookie price so I think identifying those guys early
00:20:29
Lemon
is super important because you get that cash generation plus you get the points. It's a win-win and that just keeps you within striking distance when you're the rest of your team value and gets up to where it needs to be.
00:20:40
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. I agree with that. And we were definitely flush with those options last year. We had Max Gorn. He had Locky Whitfield from a 90 price tag, which admittedly started not um that great. like He had the 130 in opening round. And I think he was averaging 90 odd for the first six. But after that, he was going at 115, 120. He had Harry Shiesel at a 90 price tag that was going at 120. So these you can't just ignore the the top end, I agree. You get you got to look there. and And that's a good segue in.
00:21:08
Holmesy
It doesn't seem at this point in time that we've got a lot of these 90 to 100 guys that are gonna be that sort of 10, 15, 20 points upside that are gonna be the captain options. So if these options don't present, how many guys do you typically look to start with, maybe this year, that are around that 100 to 105 price tag that are gonna be our captain options, but we might only be getting that sort of five points upside.
00:21:32
Lemon
Yes, I think when you're looking at captain options, particularly early season until you've got you know four or five big mids in your team, I think the the main thing we we need to think about this year is we've got those three early season buy rounds where you're going to have a loophole. ah You should theoretically have a loophole if you start someone from from all the buy rounds. So I'm not too worried about those three rounds. I think if you get two cracks at it, you should be able to get a nice 110, 120 from someone.
00:21:57
Lemon
um Even if you you started a little bit light and you' you're you're relying on ah you know like a player like Clayton Oliver, he might be able to put up a captain score in one or two of those rounds. I think the the really crucial rounds this year are gonna be round round one and probably round five. I think round six onwards, normally you can, that's when you start to bring in these these big premiums that that can give you a captain score on the boot. So I'm not too worried about round six onwards, but rounds one and five is really the the big ones that I'm looking at this year. So who am I gonna captain in that that first round? Potentially without a loophole, um if we have a playing R3. And then in round five, who who are my captain options in my team?
00:22:37
Lemon
um Do I need to bring someone in which is still possible? But ideally, you know, if I don't bring in any any top dogs who is going to be that captain in round five? Who is going to be the loophole if I have a red dot? And yeah, I think you probably just if you just look at those two rounds You might one guy might be able to might have a good fixture that he can be captain both rounds And then you you don't need anyone else um if you're starting someone like a cherry and you don't like one of the matchups then maybe you need to look at a second option. um it's It's really tricky to know but I also think ah last year we probably didn't think we'd get the captain options we had. um you know This year I wouldn't be surprised if one of these mid prices that we're looking at just has a massive year and all of a sudden we've got ah we've got a captain option. you know You look at Tristan Cherry last year, nobody expected him to do what he did. ah By the end of the year he was just an easy captain choice.
00:23:27
Lemon
so
00:23:29
Holmesy
Yeah.
Player Ownership vs. Value Decision Making
00:23:30
Holmesy
Yeah. A hundred percent. And just because ah you pay up for someone doesn't necessarily mean they have to be your captain option each week. Like at this point in time, we we don't know what teams are going to do, but we are, we are pretty sure that Richmond are going to be pretty terrible, right? So as an example,
00:23:46
Holmesy
Richmond have Colton in round one. So there's no reason that you might not be able to get a captain score out of a TDK or a chair up or while she's playing if you decide to go that way. And then Richmond have Port Adelaide. A lot of us are looking at a Rosie or a Horn Francis. There's no reason you can't get a captain option there. so your captain option doesn't have to be the highest price player. We think that they're going to be just because we're we're we're ingrained to think that way because they're the highest price player. But aya you need to be looking at all these different options and and you are right. the The opening round buyers and the buyers throughout are going to definitely help solidify that with two cracks at it. So I really like that. One last question before we move on to some specific line stuff.
00:24:28
Holmesy
How does ownership come into play for you when you're setting up a starting squad? So, for example, this year we've got, uh, Sizel and Cherry, who are both already highly owned. I think Sizel's above 40 and Cherry's above 50. Does ownership ever come into it for you or you're just backing yourself to pick the best players at the best prices? And if they're highly owned, they're highly owned. And if they're more of a pod, then that doesn't matter either.
00:24:51
Lemon
Yeah, ownerships ownership's one thing that I don't really look at at all at all um in the first maybe 10, 15 rounds. I think um it's it's definitely something interesting. I i might have a ah look just out of interest, but I would i wouldn't consider it in my decision-making process because in the end, it's you know we see so much ah with social media these days, somebody will will post an idea, it just sort of propagates throughout the community and then all of a sudden everyone don't even know why they're picking a guy, but they're picking him because he's been talked about on 10 different podcasts. So I think that that's really important. Just not not don't worry too much about ownership. So there's some guys in the top 10 players that i I won't own. There's other guys that I will own.
00:25:37
Lemon
I'm not too worried. I think the main thing is you just need to be considering all those really popular guys. So if you if you think, oh no, Sheezel's overrated, I'm not going to pick him, you still probably need to have a bit of ah a deep dive into why you're not going to pick him and what you think he's going to score. Because if he comes out and goes 120 and half the comp owns him, they get an instant captain option. They get 10 points of upside. um you know You're going to be kicking yourself and you're going to be in a lot of trouble trying to catch up those points. so I think the main thing is just consider these guys with high ownership and then make your own decision based on the the football, not based on how many people own them.
00:26:14
Holmesy
couldn't agree more. All right, so we're going to start with the forward line. ah Been a pretty big few days with Matthias Philippou going down and and having to change our structures. A lot of us had just put him in there. He was, i at this point in time, he was a good pick and until he got injured. So there was no reason not to have him, but now it's kind of shaking everything up. What are your initial thoughts with your structure and how it's lining up now with not having him at that sort of 60 price range?
00:26:44
Lemon
Yeah, I think this is great for AFL fantasy because it's all of a sudden we've gone from having a pretty vanilla forward line to absolute carnage. You know, a lot of people are ah going up to the safehorn Francis, a lot of people maybe trying to put an extra rookie on the field in the forward line.
00:27:01
Lemon
um And a lot of people are doing something completely different and picking one of those mid prices. So I think um My initial thoughts are somebody will present sort of like Haney did last year I think he was sort of no one really believed that midfield role was there and then it's we sort of the closer we got to the season the closer we realized this is real um and and then you know, a lot of people jumped on board, so I think there will be a a guy that we haven't considered yet that will probably be an option. And I think the forward line is generally where that happens because guys regularly just get thrown into the midfield and and they have breakout years.
00:27:37
Lemon
um Currently, I think what I've done with him, I've taken him up to Horn Francis because I had a little bit of cash to spend, but um I don't know if that'll hold. I'm i'm still holding about 500K in the bank, and that will go on one of the rookies that I've currently got, which isn't gonna be a play. I'll take them up to a mid-price, so I might need a little bit more depending on who moves. So yeah, I think Horn Francis is it's just a bit of a filler for me at the moment.
00:28:04
Holmesy
Yeah, I think the most important thing is is now just to play around with a whole bunch of different structures because we say it every year but it gets forgotten. Your your team is really built around the rookies and the mid prices and the value. So we've had that value option there and we've built sides around it that we felt comfortable with and we like it but if we if If the value doesn't present and you do have to go up, then it's going to change everything. And a lot of people have just gone, okay, well, I'll just chuck in ah a Riley Sanders, who might be the player, or I'll chuck in a Jack Graham, or I'll find someone else around that price point because they like how the rest of their side looks. But really, you've got to look at all of the options because the last thing you want to do is just throw a player in there that's around that same price point because ah so you can keep your same team.
00:28:50
Holmesy
if they don't end up being the player, then they end up being a waste of space in your site and then you can find yourself caught out.
00:28:56
Lemon
Yeah, I agree completely. So yeah, it's going to be really interesting. I think in the particularly in the forward line, there are a heap of rookies that might play. We have no idea what they're going to score. It's a great place to put a rookie if if there is one that can pump out a 50 or 60 because we know what the premium forwards are doing this year. F6 might be averaging 85, 90. So you know you you might only lose 30 points to a rookie.
Ruck Line Strategy and Player Evaluation
00:29:21
Lemon
um that is That's awesome if you can do it. But um at this point, it's super, super hard to pick how many rookies we're gonna get in that forward line. it's It's almost impossible to know what they're gonna score. So I'd be flexible just to to switch around the rookies.
00:29:35
Lemon
you know you could late in the in the preseason, you might want to take a rookie off field somewhere else, put another one on field in the forward line or vice versa. um you know don't Don't be married to your structure because somebody will present and if you're stubborn in your structure, you might miss out.
00:29:51
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that. So the the word of the preseason at the moment is that there's been a bit of contentious about whether the whether we pay up for an F1, so outside of McCray, someone that's more expensive than McCray in terms of value. How are you seeing the F1 options? Are there any players of interest at the moment? are that You just said you've brought in Horned Francis, but that was just because ah Philippu was out and you had some money.
00:30:14
Holmesy
Are there any F1 players that you're sort of looking at because their value or you're a little bit nervous about paying up for these guys at the moment because a lot of them are what they are?
00:30:24
Lemon
Yeah, I think it's definitely going to be value. it's The question for me is is how much and and what do you need to make that that a worthwhile pick? So, um you know, Horned Francis, a classic example, I can't really see him averaging less than what he did last year. um Does he break the 100? I'm not sure he does. So he's probably got zero to 10 points of upside. And I think if he if he gets that five, six points of upside, that might be enough um to be a decent pick.
00:30:50
Lemon
um depending on what's happening around him. So um you know it really depends a lot on on what that second highest forward rookie averages, um what the mid prices do, maybe if a Sanders or an Erasmus or someone pops up, Horn Francis might be a good pick, might not be a good pick, but he's pretty safe. So I think yeah that's probably where my head's at there.
00:31:12
Lemon
um um ah To be honest, i'm I'm a little bit upset that Hawthorne have the buy because Dylan Moore, I think, is one that I would have been really keen to start. um he had I think he had glandular fever at the start of last year, so he had an interrupted pre-season, started the season super slow, and then just dominated in the last 10-15 rounds. so but I think we're a little bit unlucky there that he's got the the round four bye. I think he'd probably be sitting at my F1 if it wasn't for that. I think there's a few other players again that that you just got to watch in the preseason. There might be five, 10 points of upside and that might be enough. you know we don't need We don't need these guys to have 15 points upside. We just need them to improve a little bit.
00:31:53
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, you're right. and And there's always going to be some players that come along like a Heaney last year. And that point you made about maybe playing two rookies there, I think are excellent as well. I know back in the day, I used to like playing an extra rookie more than everyone else in defense because back in the day,
00:32:11
Holmesy
ah the ball wasn't actually going through the defence as much and your top-end defenders were like 95 maybe 100 so that was a way that the rookies weren't actually doing that much worse than than what the premiums were doing if you got the right one and I think that holds true in the forward line as well so if there is a way to potentially play two rookies in the forward line I think that are that's a good way to kind of differentiate and and then at least give some time for the dust to settle to see who these forwards are that we want to pick which is really good Let's go into the ruck line now because a lot of our it's changed a little bit. ah There's been a lot of ruckmen that are now injured slash have injury clouds. I know there was the talk about whether you go set and forget, whether you go value or whether you go a mix between. But the first question I want to ask you first is you were the you were the one that floated the idea of Tristan Cherry at R3 last year.
00:33:02
Holmesy
um And then it snowballed from there and a lot of coaches did it. Do you feel like that paid off you? Clearly you made a lot of cash from it, but do you feel like by playing that more expensive R3 that you left too much points on the bench and the the other coaches got away from you a little bit from a points perspective?
00:33:21
Lemon
Yeah, I think it's a it was a really interesting decision. I'm still not entirely sure um of my reasoning why I went with it, but at the time I i remember i was I was pretty certain it was the right move. um I've just had a look back at my team with and without Chariot R3 last year.
00:33:38
Lemon
And I think um the main reason I did it was because I just liked the other picks that I that i had. I didn't really, couldn't really find a place to use that cash. So, um you know, like the classic the classic one was when when I pulled out Errol Goulden, a lot of that money went to Cherry at R3. And I think everyone can agree that starting with Errol Goulden would have been a terrible move. So I think the the big issue I had was I had Cherry and and Grundy um switching between R2 and R3 and I think I got the pick wrong every single week so I lost maybe 150 points in the first six rounds just from getting those two mixed up.
00:34:17
Lemon
And then I traded Grundy, I think it was yeah on his buy around five or just after. um And then from there it started to get a lot better because Cherry was killing it. But I think the also the other thing to remember is, i't I don't think any of us expected Cherry to go as big as he did. you know i I was predicting him to be 30 points of upside, maybe 35, but not enough that he was gonna kill me um if i didn't if I had him on the bench. so that obviously didn't eventuate. um you know Grundy had a few random scores where he should have he should have dominated but he didn't and Cherry pulled a few random ones out of the bag early and so
00:34:55
Lemon
i think I think it might have been, and probably not the right it was probably wasn't the right move, but I don't think it was the wrong move either. I think it was somewhere in between. i'm I'm happy I did it. It was definitely a lot of fun, but ah yeah, it was yeah it was was a bit tense. It was a bit annoying sometimes just seeing Cherry smash out 110 on the bench and you're just thinking, what have I got myself into?
00:35:17
Holmesy
Yeah, and I remember you talking about it as well. The theory was that because you had Gorn and Grundy who were both going to have a buy and Cherry didn't, you were always going to be able to have two ruckmen playing throughout the week that they were off on their buy. And that made complete sense. and And you're right, no one pegged Cherry to go 105 for the first half of the year and then 125 for the second.
00:35:37
Holmesy
everyone, everyone thought he was a 90 to maybe a hundred if everything went right and, and you could get off him. So yeah, it's it's just interesting. I just had a thought. I wanted to to quiz your thoughts on it because you had a very good season. You build a lot of cash, but you were still, you were still behind the eight ball in terms of points on field and 600k on the bench was a, was a big spend. so would you do Would you do it again? I know we're we're going to get into a Harry Boyd type situation ah in a minute, but if there was no R3 options and and all we got was a Matt Flynn or a Toby Conway or someone like that, would you would you consider going that way again or are you more of a component of having that as a red dot so you can use it to loop?
00:36:14
Lemon
I think i I wouldn't rule it out again, but obviously i can't none of those mid-price ruckmen are appealing as much to me this year as Cherry did last year, so ah think um I think it was just a weird situation where Grundy, Gorn and Cherry were all just, I thought they were all must-picks, so I picked them all.
00:36:31
Lemon
and And yeah, it was a weird one. I think, you know, a few other things happened. Like I brought in a non-playing R3 a week early and then sweet pop the next week. So there are a few other things that maybe went against me in terms of that strategy being a success. If I'd waited a week on that trade, you know, I might've been able to jump on someone else. Who knows? It's definitely not something that I've ruled out this year, but I think we've got a very different crop in the rocks this year.
00:37:00
Holmesy
Yep. Yep. Agree with that. So one of the the big news out of St. Kilda this week was that Marshall is going to be touch and go for round one. So five to eight weeks with a ah stress fracture in his pelvis. The big man's been up to some some shenanigans in the off season, but is ah is this type of injury someone that well just makes you rule out Roland Marshall?
00:37:21
Lemon
Yeah, I think um ah soft tissue injuries I'm i'm always a bit bit wary of. And then things like stress fractures where you can't, I think, my understanding, I'm not a doctor, but my understanding is it's the main treatment is rest. And I think that kind of thing I do not like to get involved in. um You know, he's going to be off his legs a lot. He's not going to be getting the K's in.
00:37:43
Lemon
And there's also a chance that it flares up again and he misses another eight weeks. So I think something like this, um you know, if he plays a pre-season game, then then maybe you can you can jump on him. But until I see him actually playing football, um i will yeah, ah you can't you can't really pick him.
00:38:02
Lemon
And it's also, yeah, I think it's just, you know, even if he plays and he's fit, is he gonna be 120 fit or is he gonna be 105 fit? um You know, you might be able to get him cheaper ah in in four or five weeks' time when he hits that full fitness.
00:38:17
Holmesy
Yeah, it's ah it's really unfortunate for a good friend of the show Bails at the AFL fantasy fanatics who declared in December that he's going set and forget. And and we all know that once you declare something in December, you have to do it. So unlucky Bails. But we'll see how you maneuver that, which which brings us to the next interesting talking point is is Harry Boyd. So signing at St Kilda SPP.
00:38:38
Holmesy
I think he averaged over 115 in the sample, won the best player for the sample. And it looks like St. Keal to have a role for him, but the question that everyone wants to know is, is he R3 or is he R2? What are you thinking about playing a rookie rock at R2?
00:38:55
Lemon
Yeah, I think it's it's going to be a really, really interesting one. If he is starting round one without Roland Marshall, and there's going to be a lot of coaches that jump on that at R2. I think the really tricky part is um once Roland comes back, what happens there? Does Harry Boyd even get picked? Does he get subbed out? Does he split the ruck time? um And then also, what's your where's your parachute option? So where are you going from Harry Boyd?
00:39:22
Lemon
If he plays two weeks, he might be priced at 400K, best case scenario, 350 probably more likely. So how are you gonna get that money to then bring him up to ah a ruckman that you're happy to have in your team for a few weeks? So I think it's really, really, really tricky to then plan around. If Roland Marshall comes back two weeks early, your team is in a bit of a pickle. You're gonna need to trade a premium, or maybe you just play without without one through one. through these buy rounds, maybe you don't have a ruckman playing, but we know how tricky that round three buy is gonna be anyway. Do you wanna be doing it with with night one less player on field? It's gonna be fascinating to see who does this strategy if it if it if it eventuates. I definitely will consider it. It's way too early to say whether ah I'll be doing it, but it's um ah it's definitely something I'll consider.
00:40:17
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I kind of liken it to 2021. So 2021 was the year that Matt Flynn first got a game for GWS. So he was the he was the sole rock and he burst onto the scene and he was getting 70s and 80s because he was the the sole rock in a decent side, which is a very, very good role. but We know with these young ruckmen, and admittedly Boyd's a bit older, but he's he's young in terms of his AFL experiences, more often than not, things change. So he might get a rest or Marshall might come back, whether whether they plan that dual ruck system or not, um well we'll we'll find out. but
00:40:52
Holmesy
If Boyd is dropped or misses a game through injury and he's at R2, you have no choice but to trade him or copper donut. Whereas if you play him at R3, yes, you might not be getting his points on field, but that doesn't mean you have to trade him if he gets dropped or managed, which means that when he comes back, if he comes back, then you're still able to reap the benefits of his cash gen, which is what happened to me in 2021 with Matt Flynn. I started him at R3.
00:41:18
Holmesy
all the coaches that started him at R2 had to trade him out. He sat on my bench for four or five weeks. It didn't matter. And then he came back and he still made me another 200, 250K. So that's the kind of situation I see with Boyd is that I think we need him long-term to try and max out his cash gen if he's going to get a long period of
Trading Flexibility and Team Structure
00:41:36
Holmesy
time. And and yes, he might play eight to 10 games straight early and and make us R3s look silly, but The odds of that, I think, are far less than him being in and out a little bit throughout the year and and him being able to build that cash slowly. Would you agree?
00:41:49
Lemon
Yeah, I agree completely. I think the other thing is as well, if if you start em at R3, you can always trade your R2 to bring him onto the field. If if things change, if you see enough, you know if he if he starts averaging 95,
00:42:03
Lemon
well, you want you probably want that on your field. ah But if he comes out of the gates with 70s, you can probably live with that on your bench without, um you know that might be the best rookie score, but it's still probably okay to leave that on your bench. So I think um at this point, yeah, I'd feel much more comfortable having an R3, but I'm also a big,
00:42:21
Lemon
a big fan of having 30 green dots to start with. I think that's where the cash gen really gets moving. So I'm i'm not a big fan of, if you start him at R2, who are we going to start at R3? It's going to be a red dot. You're not making cash there. So that might offset the the cash, that um the the the points that you're putting on field.
00:42:41
Holmesy
Can you just deep dive into that a little bit more because there's some there's been some very successful coaches that are very big on the the red dot rookie to start because it allows them to to loop and get those extra points on field, which we've we've been speaking about, but you're strictly, if you can, 30 green dots. I suppose in this new age fantasy with the early buy rounds, we are going to have that looping option anyway, and and the chances of us having 30 green dots for the full, you know, eight to 10 rounds until we're getting up to the mid season biases is very, very low. i I always get a red dot in defense or forward at some stage with being a pretty crappy rookie picker. So 30 green dots. That's what you're, that's what you're about.
00:43:20
Lemon
Yeah, that's what's been working for me. And I think that, you know, that was one of the reasons why I liked the 3RUCK setup last year, just to make sure I have that that cash generation in every position. I think the ah the other thing it does is, you know, particularly early on,
00:43:36
Lemon
Like, Clovis is a great example. A lot of people with with lots of red dots on their bench maybe think, oh, I can't trade into this guy because if he gets dropped, what am I gonna do? Whereas I was thinking, if I trade into this guy and he gets dropped, there's my red dot, there's my there's my captain loophole. um And you can take a few more punts on on rookies that maybe won't play every week. So I think that just gives you a bit of flexibility. If you can get through that first rounds, one and probably round five is probably the key one.
00:44:05
Lemon
can get through those two with a decent captain score I think that it just sets you up that then you can always bring in a basement rookie in round six if no one presents you've got that option um for people who start a red dot they've already they've just got one more red dot you know if we have a few rookies dropped all of a sudden they've got a red bench and like their team value isn't going up on the bench so you know if your bench value doesn't go up then you can't really improve your your team on field it's it's very tricky to so i think that's where i'm i'm sitting but it is sort of counterintuitive a lot of other great coaches are starting red dots and and and they're doing really well so maybe i'm a bit behind the times on this one
00:44:44
Holmesy
ah just I just want to go off on a bit of ah a tangent because you've just just something you said reminded me of a question I wanted to ask you. So your philosophy when you're building your starting spot and you're trying to get value, let's say it's round three or round four and the close comes into the side that you want to get at basement price and you have maybe one or two Red Dot rookies already on your bench.
00:45:04
Holmesy
Are you someone that's more likely to still trade out a green dot rookie that's coming to the end of their price so that you can use that cash to upgrade on the other end? Or are you someone that likes to go from red dot rookie down to close, not making as much money, but then knowing that you've got more green dots um making money?
00:45:24
Lemon
Yeah, I think that's a really tricky one. That's ah probably in the in the past i've I've leaned towards trading the red dot guy, um but I think the way you need to do it um in this new age where it's so competitive, I think you you sometimes you just need to bank that cash, um trade the guy that's maxed out or close to maxing out, um and maybe just have a few more red dots on on your bench for a few more weeks. you know we we We need that Yeah, we need that point that at some point you need that cash on field um and I think Yeah, you have to you have to sometimes just take a take a hit on the bench Maybe you've got two or three red dots there building just take that hit Get the points on field and then you can correct them later when you maybe you get a week where there's two great rookies You do a double downgrade and then you you freshen up the bench a little bit But it also depends a bit on on what's happening in the in the other positions, you know that year where we had
00:46:17
Lemon
You know, we, you know, last year we had an incredible value in the rock and we had a Ford line, which is fairly cheap. So it made it very easy to afford a good team. Um, in the past we've had a lot really expensive forwards and I think it's made it much, much harder to actually complete a team. So it depends a bit on, on where the, you know, where the best 22, how much is that going to cost you? And how many of them did you start with? Um, that then factors into how much cash do I actually need to build? Cause there's no point creating team value if you're not going to use it.
Defensive Line Picks and Value Assessment
00:46:47
Holmesy
Perfect, yep, agree with that. Before we move on to the next line, your rucks at the moment, how do they sit after the news that we've had over the last week or so?
00:46:57
Lemon
Yeah, at the moment I've got I've got a sort of a value guy and probably a TDK sitting at R2 and then a more expensive one sitting at R1 so it'll be probably Cherry at this point or um maybe Tim English as well depending on what's happening with this injury um and then you have Boyd at R3 if he plays if he doesn't play then it might be someone else which is yeah pretty vanilla I think but um Yeah, I'm still open to guys like Darcy Sweet. um English is one that really interests me if he can get on the park for pre-season, but I'm not really sure what's happening there.
00:47:35
Holmesy
Perfect. All right. So let's go into the defensive line now. How are you seeing the quote unquote value in defense this year? so Pretty, pretty tough. We don't even really need to speak about the top end guys. That's been spoken about enough, but are you potentially looking to take a little bit of the haircut on the value that you would normally be trying to hunt at this time of year, just because the value options that we have at this point in time aren't up to that level or you're still, you're still trying to hunt it?
00:48:04
Lemon
Yeah, it's it's it's tricky. ah I think i think you have to you always have to be looking for value. So I'm i'm not really picking any guys in my team who I think will go down in in price or go down an average more correctly. So I think i think even if it's you know five points at that D1, I think you have to chase five points of upside at D1, whether you get it or not.
00:48:27
Lemon
um you know You might not, but you need to have that at least have that potential there. um Not all your picks will pay off, but I find it tricky to pick someone that I know will go down and in price or down in average. It's not really the way I think you need to be playing, because there's always going to be players who go up in price.
00:48:47
Lemon
maybe it's starting with, ah you know, maybe your D1's a little bit cheaper and maybe they don't actually get to a top six defender. I think that's that's a play this year and I think that's that's something that a lot of people will do. does it Does it help you sleep at night? Probably not because you're you're looking at your defense going, I'm going to have to trade all these guys out, but we have a lot of trades, um particularly with the mid-season buy rounds, you know, you can trade a guy um If they have a later buyer, you can trade them just before they buy and you make a few points back there as well. So we've got a lot more flexibility this year with with how many trades we have really.
00:49:22
Holmesy
So let's let's put a, well, I'll put a player to it. So a Bayley Dale, for example, is someone that I'm heavily considering. I've done a ah bit of research on him. So Bayley Dale priced at 92. If you take out his injury games and and play around with his top score and low score, he's about it. He it was about a 95 last year, all things equal. You'd be hoping on a bit of natural progression, but in years gone by, I wouldn't be looking at a player priced at 92 who has potential to be maybe a 95 to 98 type player. But do you think,
00:49:52
Holmesy
with the defensive line this year, that that type of value is enough and it just gives us enough of enough time for the midseat ah sorry the early round buyers to get out of the way, to see the new roles of the top guys and then to see who's presenting us sort of the the top end defenders.
00:50:08
Lemon
Yeah, I think i think if if Bailey Dale goes you know five points of upside, I think that's a that's ah pretty fair pick. It's probably not going to win you the car, but I don't think it's going to lose you the car. um It really depends on who the better options are, though. you know if If someone else around that price point that's fairly highly owned goes 105, then Bailey Dale is not a good pick. But at the moment, how many guys are ah you know priced under him that can average more than him?
00:50:33
Lemon
ah you might already have the others in the team. So ah think um I think, yeah, it all depends on on what are the better choices. And you know even down to rookies, you know maybe the answer in defense is playing an extra rookie on field. um Depends a bit on on where that value comes from. I think five points for a, that's sort of the minimum hunting for all of my players. if If it's not five points, then I don't really want a piece of it.
00:50:59
Holmesy
Is a Harry Scheisel priced at 112, someone that you'd be looking at? I know the worthwhile average has him only willing to go only needing to go 109 to 110 to be a worthwhile pick because of ah how the defensive line works. Harry Scheisel, are you thinking that he can back up and go around that sort of 110 mark now as a midfielder at North?
00:51:22
Lemon
He's a really interesting one. he's he's one that I think he will have a year where he goes 115-120. I'm not sure if it's next if it's this year or not. That's that's the problem. you know he's um He's had such a cushy role for for so many years in that backline. he He did play midfield forward a little bit last year. And to be honest, he's incredible. Like he looks great. He's really good forward. He scores well. Um, he reminds me a bit of a kind of a Dylan Moore that he, you can put him anywhere and he'll, he'll find the pill. He'll tackle, he'll, he'll spread for marks. Um, but yeah, I think he's the one that he might come out on average 120 and kill me.
00:52:00
Lemon
or he might come out and I might be able to get him at a cheaper price. At the moment, I don't have him in my team, but again, um if if I have the cash there, it's gonna be very hard to say no to him before round one.
00:52:13
Holmesy
agree with that. So then what is your current structure looking like with the defence, knowing that we don't know what rookies are going to come through at the moment and it's all subject to change, but how are you looking to structure up? Are you looking to spend a little bit more in defence? How are we looking?
00:52:29
Lemon
Yeah, so at the moment I've got one rookie on field in defense. um I would be open to a second, but I need to be pretty confident of the full back options because we see every year in defense, there's some you know rookies that come out and score 40s. I don't want that as my backup option. I'd like a guy on the bench probably scoring 50, 60 minimum. So at the moment, it's just one one rookie there, I guess a handful of mid-prices slash under-priced premiums. I think a few of those guys could be could be top six. They might fall short. And then I've got sort of one guy
00:53:02
Lemon
oh a little bit more expensive, so that top of the line, which again, I see a little bit of value in there, um not heap. But yeah, it's those mid prices, I think, in the in the defense that are so attractive this year. you know You've got a lot of guys that it could go 15 points at upside and be close enough to top six that you can keep them for most of the year.
00:53:24
Holmesy
Well, that's ah that's a good talking point then because a lot of these mid-price players are sharing that round three buy. So we're looking at Callum Mills, Matt Roberts, Sam DeConing from Geelong if he gets a go. You've got Max Holmes, you've got, well, from Collingwood, you've got Harry Perriman. So we can't start them all with this mid-season buy. So probably hard to have a number at this stage, but are you nervous about starting too many of them? You're not going to worry about it. What's your thinking there?
00:53:54
Lemon
Yeah, I think it's um it's really frustrating, I think, when you you identify a player and you think, oh, wow, this is this is incredible. They've got heaps of upside. I'm going to put them in my team. And then you realize that they share.
00:54:05
Lemon
that round 3 buy with the rest of your defence and you're trying to you know count how many players you can get away with. But um for me, we have to remember that those round 3 guys, they're going to have three price rises before that buy round. So depending on what they score in in round 0, if they come out and they pump a pretty good score in round 0, maybe they fall away in round 1, round 2.
00:54:29
Lemon
there's potential there that they might have already made 100K. You might not see a heap of upside in keeping them, and you might be able to swing one or two of them before their buy round. So for me, um that's probably where I'm sitting, that i'm I'm expecting to trade one of those guys before round three, either in defense or in another line. I think you know there's a few other options elsewhere that you could probably trade as well. um Because I think there's just so much upside in these guys. If they score well in round zero,
00:54:59
Lemon
like you know You could find someone that's playing round three that might have 10 points of less less value and you're stabbing yourself in the foot. So I'd rather pick the guy and and you know maybe round three have a poor round. Maybe I've got a rookie who comes on, scores 40. I'd probably rather do that than miss miss a guy that goes up 20, 30 points.
00:55:19
Holmesy
Yeah, and that's something that I don't think is being talked about enough. You don't have to have the highest score every round. If you if you believe you've got the best players at the best prices, maybe you just need to take a hit in that round three, or like you said, maybe you've got a fallback option where you can trade out a couple of them. Everything needs to be on the table. I don't think it's as simple as just saying, we can't have too many on this buy round. I think taking a holistic approach approach and thinking about a bit more is a great idea.
Midfield Structuring and Player Evaluation
00:55:45
Holmesy
Lastly, we're going to talk about the midfield. Now, I don't know about you, but I found early in the preseason when I was building my side with the value that we had in the forward line and in the midfield and and not wanting to pay up in defense too much, I found I had a lot of cash to spend in the midfield. But now, with things changing a little bit, I'm finding that I don't have quite as much.
00:56:04
Holmesy
How are you thinking or what are you looking for in the midfield? Are you looking to pay up for maybe one of these guys and then and then spreading your cash throughout a few mid prices and maybe three rookies or how are you looking at structure wise at the moment?
00:56:17
Lemon
Yeah, I think that the midfield is always fascinating every year because it's one of those places where we've got so many options to choose from that you can probably find value at every price point. um So I think that is definitely one that the rest of the team um I sort of pick first and then my midfield is is one that changes a lot because you can take a mid price up to a premium that you're still happy with in your team. So I'd probably recommend to coaches, you know, have that flexibility in your midfield. You know, rookies on field in the midfield is a ah great example. I think um
00:56:50
Lemon
that's ah That's a great place to add an extra rookie if you if you want if you need the cash elsewhere or take a rookie off if you're liking the options, the mid-price, the premium options there. I think that's a really good place to do it. um so Yeah, I think my mid-fills are a little bit more expensive than than other years.
00:57:06
Lemon
um but that That'll probably change. I think it's also a good ah good place to pivot early if you find a a rookie that you missed. There's heaps of midfields, rookies that that play and some of them will score well. It's a great place to do an early pivot, drop a mid price down or drop even drop like and a failed under priced premium down, grab that rookie that you missed um and and use the cash elsewhere if you need it. So, you know we we see that last year. I think a lot of people didn't start with Jeremy Sharp.
00:57:35
Lemon
um He came out, looked like he was going to be a great scorer. The right move, I think, was to bring him in and get him on field in the midfield. However you did it, and that was the right play, I think.
00:57:46
Holmesy
Yeah, so I've always been someone that typically, and it's obviously season dependent, but like to start potentially three rookies on field in the midfield as they've typically been the best scorers. I know Selby in his winning years was always a two rookie on field in the midfield because he's always trying to get as many rookies off field as he can. but What are you looking for at the moment with your when you're building your squads? Are you are are you a two rookie on field, three rookies, or some have even floated that four rookie? witch Correct me if I'm wrong, have you had a side where you started four rookies in the midfield?
00:58:18
Lemon
I think I definitely had a side where I had four early in the season. I think I started three and I traded into a fourth for a couple of weeks um because they were I liked the look of them. Yeah, at the moment, i when i actually when I opened up fantasy, I started with four. I brought that down to three and then recently I brought that down to two.
00:58:37
Lemon
um I don't think we're going to go as low as one. I think that's a bit too thin. And I think i think we're just going to have at least one or two rookies that score well in the midfield. um But it's ah it's a yeah, that that's probably one where I do like to change my structure early um based on how the rookies are scoring. So um one of the best ways to get points on field is to get the right rookies on field. And that might mean taking one off in the forward line and bringing one on in the midfield.
00:59:02
Lemon
um So that's something that I really try and do early. Looking at that structure, don't be afraid to move that cash between lines because it just means that you can you might be able to have the same number of rookies on field, but get an extra 20 points into your team, which is a massive over ah over a five, 10 week span.
00:59:19
Holmesy
Yeah, I agree. Those, those early trades are not just fixed up trades to get in the best players, but they're also the fixed up trades to make sure you've got the optimal structure and the best coaches do that. They'll identify that, Hey, I've got an extra rookie on field in the midfield, but I need it in the forward line because that's where the points are. And they're not afraid to to jump across and and change the structure up, which is something you've done a lot. And and I know DC is someone that I've listened to over the years, who's he's been very good at at doing that as well. So definitely having the flexibility to be able to pivot early in those rounds is is super important. How are you looking at sort of the top end? Are you looking to start any of these 105 plus midfielders or are you looking at more of the value options because we do have plenty of them this year?
01:00:02
Lemon
Yeah, I think at the moment I don't have any guys priced above 105 because I think it's it's really tricky. The more I'm thinking about these sort of top, particularly the midfield premiums, but you could probably apply this elsewhere. It's incredibly hard to to do a season of 110, 115, 120.
01:00:20
Lemon
We see it happen. We very see very rarely see it it go back to back. You know, so like Bont's a great example, had a massive career year and then still had a pretty good year the next year, but only averaged, I think 107. That's a great year. it's It's just very hard to get to that next level and go 120. So I think for me, i'd rather I'd rather pick guys around that sort of 95 to 105 bracket.
01:00:44
Lemon
who I think can have a career year, um rather than a guy that's already priced above 105 that needs to have like a a crazy, crazy good year. um Because yeah we see it every year, you know the guys pick up injuries, they you know maybe they get an ankle injury for a few weeks and it just slows them down a touch. It's very hard to make to make that up. Rosie's a great example last year. Tom Green's a great example last year.
01:01:06
Lemon
It's very hard for these guys to stay fit for 22 games and and continuously deliver the 110 plus scores. It's it's it's almost impossible.
01:01:16
Holmesy
Yep. And, uh, as you said before, those, the prices are the most volatile in the early rounds. And if you're copying these lower scores to begin with, it's almost more risky to pay up for these 105 plus players because they're going to, they're going to drop a lot in cash and it it is a trading game. And then all these coaches are going to get on them earlier. It doesn't matter if let's just use a ah Andy bracial, for example, who, who we all peg that has the potential to go 110.
01:01:40
Holmesy
he might he might average 110 for the year but he might start averaging 100 or 95 for the first five rounds and then it doesn't matter if he he then goes at 120 from that point of the year to average 110 for the rest of the year. If everyone else gets on him then you're behind the eight ball so it is almost riskier to to pay out for these guys and that's not me saying that I'm not looking at picking Andy Brayshaw he's absolutely someone I'm considering he was just a name that came to mind.
01:02:03
Holmesy
Are you considering any of these guys in that sort of 700-ish K bracket? So players priced in the 70s to 80s. So you've got, you know, Adam Cera, Sam Docherty, Will Day, a few others around that price point. Is that a shopping zone that you tend to like in the midfield?
01:02:20
Lemon
Yeah, I think ah probably the the main point to that question is I don't really mind what a player costs. um I don't really look at prices at all, to be honest. i I look at what they're priced at, what's their average from last year or whatever it is, what they're what they're priced at, and then what I think is the range that they will score in. So um you know um if there's six players that I like at 700k in the midfield, I'll pick six players at 700k. I'm not too worried about it. There is there is ah probably an argument to having a little bit of flexibility so that you know if if a guy pops, um you want to be able to get to them without completely disrupting your team. um But I think these days, particularly with a flex position, it's there's so much flexibility in our team. We've got we've got um
01:03:03
Lemon
DPP players in defence, we've got DPP players in the in the forward line. It's incredibly easy to to get someone in that midfield if you want them. um You can chuck them at the utility for a week or you can move your rookies around. It's you know's so almost too easy, um after particularly even after round five, it's you know we get the DPPs and it's it's so easy to move players in.
01:03:24
Lemon
So I think for me, I'm not too worried about how many guys at which price, um you know, if there were four guys priced over 100 that I liked, I'll pick them all in my midfield. And that's that's probably what we saw. I think two years ago, we had the forward line, which was crazy. We had five guys that ended up being the top six forwards and they were all at a discount. And I picked all five of them.
01:03:44
Lemon
um Probably the you could argue the fifth one kind of hurt me a little bit because it did did reduce my flexibility in the forward line but I think also you just you know you just lock in the value wherever you can find it um because you know after a few weeks the prices are going to change. Anyway, you're going to trade a few of them out with injuries or other things are going to change and you know you're not really worried too much about their price.
New Podcast Announcement
01:04:07
Holmesy
Mate, that was an unreal chat. Lemon, always, always love getting you on. Your fantasy insight and knowledge is up there with the best. You were speaking to me pre-pod about some exciting things that you might have planned for 2025. Why don't you let me and the listeners know what might be coming.
01:04:25
Lemon
Yeah, I'd love to mate. So I've been thinking about this for a few years and I am finally going to take the plunge. I'll be i'll be running my own podcast this year where we'll be sort of focusing on very much like this strategy chats. ah We're going to go more in depth on on some of the big topics like buy rounds, um team value, rookie picking, fixture chasing, that kind of thing. And just really sort of deep down into into the into the the real in-depth strategy stuff that that maybe you don't have time for every every week in a sort of regular podcast. So and that's coming very, very soon. You can yeah follow me at lemon underscore DT to get all the details there. I'll be making an announcement very shortly. And um yeah, hopefully have some great minds like you on as well, mate. i'll be um I'd love to have you on sometime and we can really dig down into one of these topics that that comes up throughout the year.
01:05:15
Holmesy
Yeah, mate, really looking forward to it, that these strategy chats, are ah I really enjoy them. It's not something that's done a lot in the community. There's only so much time that that people have and and you got to focus on different things, but I always get so much out of these chats with with coaches like yourself and and really being able to get into the nitty-gritty of the strategy, which is such an important part of fantasy. So thank you so much for jumping on. And I'm really looking forward to to listening and and yeah getting involved with your podcast sounds unreal. Guys, make sure you're following us on Twitter or X at Pod Pod AFL. I'm at homiesheroes and make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. If you could leave us a rating and review, that would be greatly appreciated. The preseason is really heating up now. It's not going to be long before match sims and proper practice matches are coming and you want to make sure you're getting the most up-to-date and crucial information. so
01:06:06
Holmesy
We'll be back next week with another episode of the Pod Pod, but for now, enjoy and we'll talk to you again soon.