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Player Position Previews - DEFENDERS feat Luke from The Ball Boys #PODPOD
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The lads continue with their player position previews in AFL Fantasy this week with the defenders. Picking your defensive line will largely depend on what funds you have left over after spending on the ruck line and the midfield. Do you hunt for value? Do you spend up in a year where value is hard to find? All these questions and more are discussed on the podcast!
On this episode, Holmesy is joined by Harmey and Luke from The Ball Boys as they discuss all things DEFENDERS! The episode starts with general strategy chat, followed by in-depth discussion on players brought to the table by the panel and finishes by playing like or dislike with a whole bunch of listener requests. In a year where the defensive line is so hard to pick, it is crucial that you have all the information at hand. Enjoy!
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Luke: @lukerogo17
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Transcript
Introduction to AFL Fantasy Classic & Pre-Season Overview
00:00:19
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod, it's Holmsey here talking all things AFL fantasy classic for you on this Monday 27th of January. That's right, last pre-season pod in January before we hit February and the pre-season matches will start to kick off which is super exciting. We are continuing with our play-up positional previews today and we are we deliberately left the defence till last.
00:00:43
Holmesy
It's been pretty tough this year to to pick some value defenders and and see all that lines up. So we thought we'd wait until we have as much information as possible. And yeah, it's going to be a ripper episode. We've got a stack of players to talk about. The listeners have really got behind this one, which is really
Expert Insights: John Harm & Luke from Ballboys Join
00:00:56
Holmesy
good to see. But as always, I have two time top 10 finisher and runner up in 2019. John, harm me on deck. Harm me, mate. How was your week?
00:01:05
Jon Harmey
Hey, Holmes here. Yeah, no, I'm going well, thanks. Yeah, we had a good, we had a long weekend, obviously. So it's been nice to have a bit of time away, but just coming back and thinking about footy and catching up on some of the the track reports and see what is happening at the clubs. So they're all, they're all cracking in and it's good to see.
00:01:24
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it's a really exciting time of year. And we've had Mitch from the Ballboys on the home's files and and he's pretty much been on every podcast so far this preseason. So we thought we'd get his co-host and the real brains behind the operation on the the winner of the the Content Creators Cup from last year. Luke, thanks for joining us last minute, Nate. How are you?
00:01:47
Luke Rogo
Yeah, good, mate. Thanks for having me. You're spot on there. Mitch has become a bit of a fantasy whore, hasn't he? He's been on every single podcast. So I'm glad to get on on one. And like I said to you before, I'm i'm honored that I got the call out for the podcast.
00:02:02
Holmesy
Nah, look, I've been looking to get you on for a while. I know we had you on last year, but that was that was with Mitch, so we thought we'd get the training wheels off and and see how you go solo. So looking looking forward to it.
00:02:12
Luke Rogo
Don't expect that.
00:02:16
Holmesy
Look, yeah, as I mentioned, we're touching on the defenders today, which is a a very crucial part of building a squad this year.
Injury Roundup: Key Players Affected
00:02:23
Holmesy
It seems like most of us have very similar forward lines and and the rucks are up for debate, but the defenders are, they're anyone's guess at the moment.
00:02:30
Holmesy
and I'm really looking forward to it. Before we get into that though, we are going to start with some hot topics. Fresh off the fresh off the press, Harmony. Ryan Daniels has just reported that Elliot Yeoh has escaped ACL damage, but unfortunately has done his MCL and is looking at four to eight weeks on the sidelines. Does that interest you in some potential moving parts at the Eagles with that midfield rotation?
00:02:56
Jon Harmey
Yeah, okay, so he's done his medial. It depends if he's done any cartilage with his medial, but, you know, he could. Well, when was that last week? He did that. So he's going to probably only miss a couple.
00:03:05
Holmesy
Yes, Friday.
00:03:08
Jon Harmey
So if you're looking at him in a draft, you might get him Thank a bit cheaper. you.
00:03:11
Jon Harmey
But I don't really know. Let's have a look at that West Coast midfield hay. It's going to have Kelly.
00:03:17
Holmesy
Read.
00:03:19
Jon Harmey
Yeah, Harley Reid. I'm not really sure. They may just um have a bit of a pinch hit of Jack Graham or somebody like that in for a temporary period of time. I think they'll be hoping to get Melio back in there because he's one of their stronger, he's their defensive mid in there. So I'm not really sure if it means too much for us, to be honest, mate.
00:03:41
Holmesy
Yeah, look, maybe it means that Liam Duggan plugs a ah hole in there to start the year, which I think we probably want him off half back compared to that inside midfield role. But the Eagles, I think, are a big watch for me to see how they play under under their new coach and what their new system looks like. So keep an eye on how that moves. Maybe we'll get a rookie in there. Who knows? But ah for now, it's just a watch.
00:04:01
Holmesy
ah Luke, track watchers, so they're making it seem like Kitty Coleman is touch and go for for round zero and round one, which which does make sense. Coming off an ACL, ah he's always been one that's kind of struggled with his his fitness and that would only really be a year since he's done his ACL. So a bit nervous, I suppose. I heard you talk on your podcast saying that the decision will be made for us that if he if he plays, we can have a look at picking him. If he does and he doesn't, but does that give you a little bit of worry about a Kitty Coleman?
00:04:30
Luke Rogo
Yeah, it definitely does, Holmes Ian. It's probably more, the when I put myself in in the Lions position, you can't ask yourself, what is there to gain there? I know that if push came to shove, you probably could get out there and and play, but um if you're the Lions, you're probably either not playing him until you absolutely know that he's Mickey Mouse, or even if he does come back, you're just kind of managing it and and drip-feeding it as a bit. so um it's It's an interesting one to to watch unfold as well because ah not only for Kitty Coleman's sake, but I think that his availability kind of ah impacts the structure ah but of that offensive line as well. So I'm sure we'll get into that in a little bit.
00:05:08
Holmesy
Yeah, for so much of the preseason, he was just someone that all coaches, well, not all, but most just plugged in there thinking that he was almost a lock to to get up and play. And you kind of built your side around it. And it's interesting to have a play around and see what you can actually do with your side when he's not in there. And it does kind of seem at the moment that we're going to be a little bit short of rookie options. We don't really know, but it's always a bit of a nervous um start to your season if you're playing two or three rookies on field in defense. so definitely one to to monitor but I think at this stage in the preseason I'd be making plans ah for him not being there and we can adjust um if he does get to the line. Hami, this one here not confirmed but some track watchers talking about the St Kilda session today and a few injuries coming from there and
00:05:55
Holmesy
The big one, Dougal Howard seems to have dislocated his shoulder. Now, we don't have any information about how bad that may be, but we're going to talk a little bit later about, you know, potentially the benefits and maybe an Ari Schoenmaker. But does that kind of interest you a little bit more in that back line, considering we've already had a Josh Battle depart and we know that Saints like to score back there?
00:06:15
Jon Harmey
Yeah, well, that's it. I actually made a note of that because um I'll talk about Ari Schumacher later on, but um it's just another defender that's gone. It's like, yeah, battle left. I didn't want him to go. Didn't really replace him um with any sort of player that's ready to go. Riley Bonner, D listed, you know, um but yeah, I'll sort of come back to that, I guess, mate.
00:06:41
Holmesy
Perfect. And the last little bit of information hot off the press that's just come to my desk. And unfortunately, we're all going to put our hats out for Mitch here, but Tim English.
00:06:52
Luke Rogo
ah I'll even put his head out for him.
00:06:54
Holmesy
There we go. Tim English, abdominal strain. So timeline unconfirmed about his return, but apparently he's going to be out of full contact training for a while and he's going to be missing um his club's match simulation this weekend.
00:07:08
Holmesy
and Luke, Mitch, is is this going to make you a little bit nervous to start a team English, knowing that this is once again ah an interrupted preseason for the big man?
00:07:18
Luke Rogo
Yeah, I think so. I mean, by Mitch's own logic, you you shouldn't be starting players that have that interrupted pre-season. And in my opinion, anyway, that tom that aggressive pick from him was speculative at best. So I'll play my tiny violin for him, but I'll also be into him.
00:07:34
Jon Harmey
Oh, Luke, did you want to say for the listeners, did you say that Mitch had contacted you and he's gone straight across to Nank? He's gone pivoted to Nank, has he?
00:07:43
Luke Rogo
Yeah, ah that is confirmed. I've just got that coming in ah here on my Twitter feed that he's he's head straight across. So we'll hold him to that too, I reckon. um
00:07:52
Holmesy
Yeah, we all know that once your team is set, you can't you can't change it.
00:07:54
Luke Rogo
If you're not picking your team on the 27th of January, then what the hell are you doing?
00:07:56
Holmesy
so
00:07:59
Jon Harmey
It'll be honest to listeners, don't you?
00:08:02
Holmesy
Beautiful. All right. So before we get into the specific players, we're going to have a bit of a general strategy discussion about the defensive line. Now, honestly, obviously this um really depends on where you're spending your money. So if you're someone that's looking at potentially a set and forget ruck system or maybe someone that's looking to pay up a little bit more in the midfield, you might not have as much money to spend in defense. But the common theme at the moment is that the top end defenders that we had from last year either have an early buy or they're fairly priced or even overpriced. So we think a lucky Whitfield off the back of a career year. We think a Danes Orko who's another year older, Kitty Coleman potentially coming back in, but what does his role look like in the side going forward, but also has a buy. You've got Sam Flanders who can score with the best of them, but what does his role look like after he moved from defense late last year? And then you're getting down to a Jack Sinclair, those types, but
00:08:59
Holmesy
Luke, I'll start with you. It was interesting to listen to your team reveal podcast. How are you looking to structure up your defence at this point in time in the pre-season?
00:09:09
Luke Rogo
Yeah, you might've got the impression from, from that podcast as well, um, homes that I you know wasn't entirely happy with, with the way it was shaping up in defense. Cause like you said, we had all these grand plans of where Kitty Coleman would kind of fit into our teams. And I think ah a lot of us are kind of pushing away from that now. And it's left us in a bit of a position where we know that we feel like there's, there's not too many of those premium defenders that we feel are under priced or, um, represent value.
00:09:36
Luke Rogo
But at the end of the day, you have to pick somebody. And if there's no rookies coming through, there's not as many sort of mid prices that you're confident and on. Do you just end up going to the top of the tree? So and for example, I haven't had Sheezel in my team um all preseason in the the last couple of days. He's come into the team, um you know, at effectively what we would call um top price. I've got Bailey Dale there. Colby McCurch is obviously a little bit cheaper. And then Jayden Short is starting to look, you know, a lot more expensive than it was about a week ago.
00:10:06
Luke Rogo
um So I'm a little torn at the moment, and if anyone's tuning in to this podcast for answers, I'm sure as hell not gonna give them to you. I'll provide more questions than answers, but that that's kind of where my thinking's at at the minute.
00:10:21
Holmesy
Hami, in a normal season where we're clearly looking for upside and and a lot of upside, do you feel this year that the coaches are on the right train of thought where they're looking for maybe smaller upside than in previous years? So like, for example, I'll throw out a Bailey Dale priced at 92.
00:10:40
Holmesy
Maybe there's upside of a 97, 98 if everything falls his way. But you know in a normal year, that's not a player I'm even looking to to start because it's not it's not enough upside. And even if he does get to 98, it's no guarantee that he's going to be pushing the top dogs. He might. But do you feel like it's the right way to look at it, that we can kind of look for less value or do you think we should be potentially, like Luke said, going up to the top, hunting less value up there, but knowing that you've got those real top scorers?
00:11:11
Jon Harmey
I think there's a couple of things that are influencing it and those top scorers, the guys that are priced are over 100. I think that when we have looked at all of those, we've sort of said this um there's as much chance that they get down in value than they go up in value. And then we look at the bottom of the tree and we see where's the rookies struggling there too, no no real.
00:11:39
Jon Harmey
um clear standouts at the moment. I mean, I think we've probably all got Trevally in there, um but then you're looking at people like Gibca, Zach Reag, James Leake, Sarnell Harley, Bo Allen, these aren't sort of things. You're not looking at them going, oh, yep, bang, 70 points there. I'll put them on my field. So ah if you're anything like me, you're spending a bit more money in your defense but trying not to jump on a bunch of these top guys, like just as an example, Locky Whitfield, um he's priced pretty high and he's got an early buy. He's not the value pick that he was last year. So yeah, I think you'll find that a lot of people, if they're like me, are spending a fair bit of money in their defense and trying to find those guys that are at that price bracket below, which I can see that we um will talk through quite a few today. and
00:12:31
Jon Harmey
ah The listeners that have chucked in their requests have um put out a number of them also.
00:12:36
Holmesy
Yeah. And I think, I mean, we clearly at this point in time have no idea what rookies are going to come through. But if this was 2024, looking back to last year, I think there probably was scope to to potentially play an extra rookie on field, knowing that you were going to have best
Strategic Debates: Starting with Rookies & Team Performances
00:12:51
Holmesy
18 for four of the first six rounds and it wasn't going to be until round seven that you were back to that best 22 model. But with the buy rounds being condensed,
00:13:00
Holmesy
So, ah well, basically with round five being best 22, Luke, do you feel like if you did run the risk of playing two rookies on field because you don't like the value options, do you think coaches could be found out a little bit um with those rookie options?
00:13:15
Luke Rogo
Yeah, I certainly think you could. and And I think part of that is what I'm i'm trying to get to catch on ah of pivotability um as well. If those rookies go awry and then there's no rookies to pivot to, it's very difficult. Whereas I think typically, anyway, ah in the midfield line and in the forward line as well, especially with those mid-forward rookies, there's often someone that you can kind of pivot to. I think you you could get a little lost down in defense. What do you what do you two um boys think about the fact that people people will say, hey, you're all right to pay up for some of these guys, as long as they're a captain option in the first few weeks. So I'd steer away from the guys with the buy, but for example, Shesil, like, Holmes, are you happy to pick a Shesil, given that you can also say, hey, we'll put the sea on him?
00:14:01
Holmesy
Well, I mean, we're going to get to this, but the thing that's really interesting me about Harry Shiesel is we always talk about value and upside, but with those top-end guys, you don't actually need upside. You you basically need them to go what theyre what they're priced at to be a good pick, especially in defense because we're we're predicting that Shiesel will be the D1 and buy some margin. so Jayden puts out his worthwhile averages every year, which is basically, what does a player need to average to be? He uses the word worthwhile, but essentially be a knockout pick in terms of if you start them and they go that price, then they're they're a very good pick. And Chisel actually only needs to go 109. So that's a three point drop on his starting price. And yeah, you might lose 30, 40K on him, depending on where the magic number lines up.
00:14:47
Holmesy
He's still likely going to be D1. And because he's averaging around that mark, you can then put the captaincy on him, like you mentioned. um And he might get some ceiling scores to differentiate. So that's what's got me interested about a Harry Sheasel. However, if he does drop down to a 105 price point, then then you are in a bit of trouble if you have started him. Would you agree with that, Luke?
00:15:08
Luke Rogo
Yeah, I think so. And and um that those worthwhile averages, I think, are ah fantastic to look at. The only um little asterisks I reckon I'd put on them is ah if ah those first sort of five or six games are a little bit lower than what the average turns out to be, ah that might be where you get yourself in a little bit of a pickle. If Shezel has a slow start to the season, but then kills it in the latter half, you end up with the 109 average. But it looks very different just because people are obviously going to be able to jump on it at a cheaper price as well.
00:15:37
Luke Rogo
um But at the moment, I'm telling myself I can put the C on him and that's what's helped me sleep at night. so
00:15:43
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Timing in this game um is so, so crucial. Luke, why don't you are as the new guy on the show kick us off with your first player that you want to talk about.
00:15:53
Luke Rogo
Well, I'm keepinging keeping it at Tiger Town to start with and I want to talk about Jaden Short. So I know that um maybe maybe this is a layup pick according to some and maybe I'm drinking a little bit of Mitch's Kool-Aid here. but um there's There's so many things that are ah happening at Tigerland that that make me feel positive about what Jaden Short can do. And like we said, on this line, we're not necessarily looking for 15, 20 points of upside from a guy like this. If we can get 10 points of upside, 15 points of upside from Jaden Short, then we're on to a winner. So I mean, it's
00:16:27
Luke Rogo
Obviously well known that the Tigers are going to absolutely stink this year, but I think that that stinkiness might also coincide with at times a little bit of a more conservative game style. And for a guy that you're bringing into your team to have plenty of plus sixes, perhaps when we need to go into shut it down mode and chip it around a little bit, Jayden Shaw could be on the receiving end for a little bit of that. The other thing too, and I'll i'll butcher my way through through this stat that I think Mitch brought up on on our podcast as well. If you look at the number of best 22 players that have left the Tigers over the offseason, you're looking at close to I think an average of about 75 points per player when you take out all those guys that were
00:17:10
Luke Rogo
um uh, we're best 22 players. Well, those points have to be picked up somewhere. So unless you anticipate that every rookie coming in at Richmond is going to suddenly average 75, which I imagine is not going to happen. There's going to be some experienced players that'll have to pick up a little bit of that load. Um, I think that Jayden Shaw can potentially be one of those guys.
00:17:32
Luke Rogo
The amount of points that Richmond scored or should I say that the lack of amount of points that Richmond scored last year is a concern. and I know the something that you've brought up home to you, especially with regards to Tim Taranto. Can Richmond be that historically bad?
00:17:46
Luke Rogo
two years in a row. So it was Richmond and West Coast that went under 1,400 points in total per game ah last year. But I think you have to go back to, you almost have to go back 10 years to find a team that went under 1,400 points, um COVID excluded. So, you know, I've just, maybe I've got a little bit of optimism, but I don't know if Richmond will be historically bad from a total fantasy point perspective two years in a row. And maybe that's just like another tick in the Jaden Shaw box. Thoughts, boys?
00:18:16
Holmesy
Do you think that they haven't hit the bottom yet? Like in terms of the Eagles in 2023, on average, they scored 1456 fantasy points per year and then they cleaned out a little bit, not heaps, but then they dropped down to 1361.
00:18:21
Luke Rogo
Jesus.
00:18:34
Holmesy
Do you think that Richmond could not even be at the bottom yet and we're we're still looking at ah a bit of a drop? I think it's a think it's a pretty realistic prospect, don't you think, Hami?
00:18:44
Jon Harmey
Oh, look, they were pretty bad last year, but that last year they also didn't help that. The team sort of kept changing and people come in and then come out and you had, um yeah, Shay Bolton didn't care, Dusty didn't seem to care, no offense, Richmond supporters.
00:19:02
Jon Harmey
But what I'm saying what i'm saying is you got rookies coming in and maybe they've got a bit more motivation to prove themselves and I just don't think they'll probably get much worse, to be honest.
00:19:03
Luke Rogo
or
00:19:14
Holmesy
Luke put a ah worst case, best case scenario on Jaden Short. What do you expect him to to average this year to start?
00:19:23
Luke Rogo
It will be dependent on on that game style and You mentioned them getting worse, Holmes. Perhaps they can get worse from a footballing perspective, but I think that could coincide with a bit of a self-preservation mode from a fantasy perspective. ah Best case Shorty is a ton. Worst case, let's say an 88 and you've even, you've got what, eight points upside there. It's not the best, but I think that the floor will be remarkably high um being a senior seeing your head down back in a team full of rookies. so
00:19:56
Jon Harmey
The thing about shorties, he's done it before and this is why you're sort of um attracted to this sort of a player. Like he's one of the first players that I've soldered in my defense because the three years that he's gone before 2024 was 93 average, 98 average, 93 average. Well, you take any of those, you know, if that's your range, geez, it's a it's a real win, isn't it?
00:20:21
Holmesy
Yep. Yep. Agree there. He's, he's someone that I'm, well, he's in my team at the moment. And I think it would take something pretty drastic to, to have him come out. I think Luke's spot on. I think he can't really be worse than 88, 90 with, with potential upside to push the ton. So very happy with the Jaden short pick to start. Hami, who's your first player that you want to talk about?
00:20:42
Jon Harmey
Yep, I'm going local and sticking with Kelby McCourcher as a Tasmanian. 16.4% ownership at the moment, which I was a bit surprised about. It's quite high. um He's priced at 82, but he ah did have that subbed out injured score last year or two. So if you take that out of the equation, he he actually averaged 88 for the season.
00:21:04
Jon Harmey
He is a big junior scorer. um He's in a team that ships it around the backline. and At some point, they may try and change their style. But I think that there's enough proven history in that backline at North Melbourne, which I expect him to be in with Daniel, Caleb Daniel and himself.
00:21:25
Jon Harmey
chipping it to each other. I just reckon there's a match made in heaven. So, um with McCurcher, I reckon it's only a matter of time until he averages 100 at a senior level. And if it's not this season, then it's probably next year or the one after.
00:21:40
Jon Harmey
Jesus got into the midfield as a full-time mid-forward, so I really do feel as though he should be Daniela McCurcher in the north back line. Yeah, what do you guys reckon? Have I sold you or are you still lost sitting on the fence, Hamsy?
00:21:57
Holmesy
Luke, I've got a question for you.
00:21:59
Luke Rogo
Yeah,
00:22:00
Holmesy
Do you think we would be considering Colby McCurcher if Shazel hadn't done what Shazel did in defense to start last year?
00:22:09
Luke Rogo
yeah I said this to Mitch a little while ago as well. We've we've been very spoiled with some of the rookies that we've had come into the league um and especially what they've done in their first and then subsequently in their second year in that juicy role.
00:22:21
Luke Rogo
um I look, I still think we would. And I think it's cause it's something that, that home, uh, that sorry, homie mentioned before, which is just his fantasy pedigree as a scorer, as a junior too.
00:22:32
Luke Rogo
It's not the AFL is the big leagues. There's no doubt about it. But if you know how to find the football like these guys do, you know how to find the football. So he's shown that in his first year to an extent, and it it really wouldn't shock me.
00:22:43
Luke Rogo
Um, if he goes in and does what both she's all and obviously day cost before him, uh, have done.
00:22:52
Jon Harmey
Yeah, he's just, he's got that lucky Whitfield sort of style of play.
00:22:52
Luke Rogo
Yeah. yeah
00:22:56
Jon Harmey
Like he kicked the short one and nailed it cause he's a great kick, but then he'll follow it up and try and get the handball back or he runs to space to get the next chain, and like kick down the line. So yeah, you're right.
00:23:06
Jon Harmey
He just has a way of finding the footy.
00:23:09
Holmesy
What happens if he's on a wing, Hami? Does that kind of deter you off a little bit? do we we We really need him in defence, don't we?
00:23:17
Jon Harmey
Yeah, we want him on the back flank. um Well, they got Bailey Scott. he's He's got one wing sewn up. I can't remember who played on the other one, but um
00:23:27
Luke Rogo
Stevens, they bought it from the Swans. Did he play a little bit of wing or was he just in and out?
00:23:29
Jon Harmey
I feel like he's depth. He's a bit like a Darcy Tucker type. He's on the fringe. But I thought there might've been somebody else. Anyway, ah i look, he may play up the ground, but I mean, some of those high accumulating backpack flankers do float up the field at times, don't they?
00:23:50
Holmesy
Yeah, that it's, it's interesting to see his role in the, in the preseason, but well, I think they, they experimented with Shezel in the midfield last year during preseason. Then it wasn't till round one that he was, he was back on that half backflank. So the preseason might not actually give us too much information, but I do agree that if McCurch is in the backline, then he should He should present value, but it's just a question on what average he gets to. Hami, I'll continue with his teammate. We may as well just get it ah get it out of the way early. Harry Shiesel has been a ah fantasy gun since he entered the comp two years ago.
00:24:24
Holmesy
so debuted at 97. So 97 average in defense in your first year is is almost unheard of. And then he's now priced at 112. So he's his season was almost a tale of almost two halves. So first seven games in defense average 125. And if you didn't start him or you didn't get onto him very early, then He almost took the season away from those other coaches, so he was someone that you had to have. And and then he moved into the midfield. He, uh, from that point in time, so he averaged 105 off 84% time on ground when he was playing that mid forward role. But what interests me is, uh, in games where he had above 50% center bounce attendances, he averaged 113. Admittedly, it was only a five game sample size.
00:25:06
Holmesy
but we kind of see Shizu as this player that only gets it on the outside, but he averaged just under five tackles and five marks. So he was getting it on the inside, but he was also doing the hard work, sorry, getting it on the outside, but also doing the hard work inside as well. So if he's training as a full-time midfielder during the preseason and they earmark him to to have that sort of 50 to 60% CBA midfield role and then push forward to just kind of rest then,
00:25:31
Holmesy
maybe here's value on that 112. We haven't really seen a ah rookie go this well so early other than a Nick Dacos. We've heard Luke's opinion harm me, but are you seriously considering starting a Hari Sheezel priced at 112?
00:25:46
Jon Harmey
She's priced at 112. And is he a midfielder that can average 112? He probably is, but North haven't had 112 averaging. We'd feel it for a while. We've all thought that LDU might have been that sort of a player, but he's not, is he? I'm thinking about it. I just i just feel like it's going to be very difficult for him to go better than that. um And it doesn't take much for his price to drop, but doesn't have the early buy. So that's a tick in the box there. And I am thinking about it um because
00:26:26
Jon Harmey
You know, I like to start the season with two or three captaincy options. um And depending on what I look like in the other lines, I'm not really sold on some of those big mids. So it's possible that I look at a Harry Sheasel to have ah a VC option there with him.
00:26:43
Luke Rogo
Does, sorry to cut your phones, 40% ownership, like value aside, does 40% ownership scare you at all? If he got off to a ripper start and you didn't have him.
00:26:53
Jon Harmey
Does it?
00:26:54
Luke Rogo
And then second question, sorry, how many, I was just gonna second question.
00:26:54
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:26:56
Luke Rogo
Who do you tag at North Melbourne this year?
00:26:59
Jon Harmey
Why would you? Anyway, um yeah, I don't worry about the ownership so much at the start of the season, because I think that's only really, um ah really important coming out of the buys and as you're coming home, because if a lot of people have a player that you're so completely sold on and keen on, I just sort of don't let it deter me um as a starting starting team.
00:27:24
Jon Harmey
um Yeah. iy
00:27:27
Holmesy
Yeah, look, ownership doesn't doesn't deter me, especially to start the year. Luke, I think, LDU's still the main tag target. I would have thought he's still far more dangerous at this point in time than Chisel at the contest. So I still think he's the one that they shut down. And I think that actually bodes well for Chisel. We've seen over the years, like, you know, when McRae was getting off the chain, Bont was what the one that teams were putting the time into, which meant McRae could get as much ball as he wanted on the outside.
00:27:56
Holmesy
so the best fantasy scorers are often that sort of second midfielder that can not have the attention and and just do what they want. So I think that's probably a good thing. If we can't really see LDU bumping up above 100, I think he is that 95 guy, unless he has a, you know, that a brown low type season where he just puts it all together harm me. But what are you thinking?
00:28:17
Jon Harmey
I was just going to say, early in the season teams don't really tag that much anyway. It sort of seems to be when your your teams are going a bit poorer or it's getting tight on the latter positions, that's what seems to be sort of introduced. um Like every team will have a tag these days, um you know, your Finn McGinnis, your Will Phillips, your Toby Bedford, but these aren't the guys that are the number one player selected in the team often it's sort of like if we need them we'll bring them into tag so um or you know if there's a role there so I don't know if it's something we should be concerned about for the first five rounds of the season especially with a team like North that I can't really see them coming out and sitting on top of the ladder and everybody's trying to shut them down
00:29:04
Holmesy
Beautiful, Luke, why don't you give us your second player?
00:29:07
Luke Rogo
We've got here. I want to talk about Callum Mills. So I think that he's he's potentially one of the the biggest locks that a lot of people have had sitting in their defensive line since the game opened. And I mean, you just have to go back a couple of seasons to see what kind of pedigree we're talking about from a fantasy scoring perspective. And the interesting thing about Callum Mills is even in his big season, I think it is one of his biggest seasons was 1-11.
00:29:31
Luke Rogo
He did that on around 50% CBAs, which is not something that you typically see um from a guy that at at the time was playing a little bit in midfield. He's in my team at the moment, but I do, I'll call them reservations. so I've got a ah few reservations that I'm kind of just a little bit unsure about. And a lot of it's got to do with the the cattle that Sydney had in their midfield back in 2021, 22 when Mills was dominating from a fantasy perspective. So you're looking at names like,
00:30:01
Luke Rogo
Parker mills himself, obviously, Kennedy, ah then Warner, Rowbottom. But coming into um coming into this season, they're going to have Isaac Heaney, Rowbottom, Warner, Goulden. It just strikes me as as names that probably in Sydney's interests are better to have in the midfield. and Mills perhaps is more valuable for them as a Mr Fix-It guy. All those things being said, he's so cheap.
Player Potential: Evaluating Key Defensive Roles
00:30:30
Luke Rogo
Even if he does play in defence, can he still be valued? The answer is yes. If he plays on a wing, can he be valued? Yes. And if you get CBAs, then we've seen that that, to be perfectly honest, is that's just a bonus for his scoring. So I guess a little bit of devil's advocate there, but probably not going to um prevent me from starting it, ah ah starting him even with the early buy.
00:30:50
Holmesy
Yeah, look, i I think at this point in time, he's one of the biggest layup picks that we have, obviously, with the caveat that we've got open round opening round to see what role he's playing. But you mentioned all these names, Luke, but the reality is they've just lost their second grand final in three years by a huge margin.
00:31:05
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:31:08
Holmesy
He's their captain, new coach. I think he's going to be as fired up as anyone to to right the wrongs of last year and and not being able to be there on on that last day. so i I think it's got everything earmarked for him to to put the team on his back. Now I'm not saying he's going to be the number one mid but as you said priced at $74.95 is a ah great pick and anything more than that um is going to be a bonus.
00:31:31
Holmesy
we just had Heaney have a career year, like how often do we see players back up career years as every every chance that he regresses back to the mean a little bit and he's a 95 to 100 guy like he was in the back half of the year and we know Errol's going to do what Errol does which maybe does uh eat into a little bit of meals outside game because he was someone that tackled hard but also got some cheap ball around the ground but I just think Hami that he's a He's a layout pick for us at this point in time. ah I think you he can go 95 pretty easily if he's got that 50% CBA role.
00:32:03
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I guess it does come down to the roll a bit. um But again, these previous three averages before this year, 84, 111, 110. Again, you you take any of them. I just think with Mills, when he was in that midfield a couple of years ago, and he was firing like he was one of the best players in the competition as a midfielder so why wouldn't you try and um do that and I know that the swans are going to try and balance their team across the board but let's think about putting if you put your best players in the midfielder and you had a starting midfielder of Mills, Heaney, Goulden, Warner you know I don't really rate Ray Bottom no offense if he's listening obviously but
00:32:49
Jon Harmey
that's ah That's a ripping forward, isn't it? And it's got a balance of pace and Mills can be the defensive midfielder, but still, you know, he can still win his own ball too. Anyway, look, I don't know what's going to happen, but I just see there being a role there for him as a midfielder at the Swans and I think it would be good result.
00:33:07
Holmesy
Yep. Agree there, Hami. Why don't you give us your second player?
00:33:11
Jon Harmey
Okay so when um yeah like when we sort of sit down go through the defenders and we list them from most expensive to at least expensive or whatever the ones that we have liked to try and go for before same with the forward line actually but anyway the defenders is in midfielders so we just spoke about colour mills Homes you spoke about, Schiezel, we're not going to speak about Flanders probably because he's got that early buy. But here's another midfielder, proved it last year, Trent Rivers with 2.2% ownership. So he's priced at 82 and
00:33:51
Jon Harmey
um Yeah, went well in the nine games that he had fifty above 50% CBAC, he averaged 90. He hit scores of 123, 126, 110, 101, noting that they were all without Petrarca. But who would you rather have in your midfielders? In your Trent Rivers, who has now proven for a very small sample that he can do it, he can compete,
00:34:17
Jon Harmey
ah or you're going to have your Sparrow, you know, cause he pick it. Yeah. Well, Neil Bullen's gone now, but these are the sorts of guys that were taking up time in that midfield last year. And I just look at it and go, it should be Oliver, Vani, Petrarca and Rivers, noting that Petrarca is still working his way back into full training. So I think there's a role there for him. And I think that it's quite a solid um proportion of the CBAs should be going his way.
00:34:47
Holmesy
So, Hami, are you going to you going to apologize yet or what? I are ah put this guy in our draft team just as someone to watch back in December and you vetoed him out and and ripped into me. Is there an apology on the way or what?
00:35:00
Jon Harmey
I'll have to listen back and do you make sure that was the case before I apologize.
00:35:05
Holmesy
Yeah, look, ah I'm interested here um just because I'm still big on their needing to be a little bit of a changing of the guard at Melbourne. Don't get me wrong. Petrarcha and Oliver are still very much in their prime, but Viny is getting on. Gorn's not going to be there for for that much longer. They do need to start to to switch things up and look to the future. And I think rivers showed at times last year.
00:35:27
Holmesy
that he was able to to do that and and to score. And a lot of what he did was on very low time on ground as well. And he got, he got thrown in there basically because Petrarca was out and then um Oliver wasn't really getting it done. So he didn't really train in there in the, in the preseason. So a full time Pre-season training midfield getting used to the patterns and all that kind of stuff.
00:35:46
Holmesy
I think I think there's value here I think Luke the main thing we would need to see would be rivers to drip to jump viney I'm not sure he can get it done as the fourth mid But I think if he was the third mid behind Oliver and Petrarch and knowing that they still probably will like Petrarch applying that sort of 50 60 CBA and then splitting time forward is is River someone that interests you and
00:36:10
Luke Rogo
Yeah, I'm probably with you there, Holmes, that I would like to see him as the third bloke in. Now, the other thing that concerns me a little bit is that, although I expect him to to continue with the CBAs, is that what we expect Clayton Oliver to be a significant improver would probably you know, um barring this injury that it's just come to like the last couple of weeks, we were expecting maybe a little uptick from Petrarca as well. So um that's the only thing that makes me nervous is when you're looking at, you know, three midfielders from the same team and and potentially expecting upside from all of them. We do expect Melbourne to be better overall, which, you know, that's going to help. um But just a little flag there, I guess.
00:36:49
Holmesy
Yeah, look, i I don't mind it. I think it's a ah big watch in the preseason to see what his role is looking like. But I think there's definite upside on his starting price. And at a minimum, he's someone to put on your your draft board up a little bit. I think there's there's good value. We want those defenders playing midfield if they're not the the main distributor down back.
00:37:08
Holmesy
my second player and James Sicily, 8.4% owned, and I'll admit he was someone that I wasn't looking at too heavily until you mentioned him on your podcast, Luke, which got me got me thinking. So I went went back and had a look at his season.
00:37:24
Holmesy
So he's priced at 87. He averaged 104.5 in the year before that. And I'm going to go out and limb right now and say, I don't think that's where he can get back to. I think that was an outlier year because of ah how bad Hawthorne were that year, but 96 before that. So he's he's got scoring pedigree. And what we know about Hawthorne last year They were one and six after seven rounds. So they were in shambles to start the year. They weren't playing very good football. And then it all started to click. So if we manipulate the stats a little bit and we look at Sicily from that point onwards, he averaged 95, which is about where we think Sicily is. We think he's a 95 guy. And what we do also know is that in round eight, that was when he first dislocated the shoulder. So he was having shoulder issues from that point in time. It was popping out every now and again. and
00:38:12
Holmesy
Clearly you're not gonna play your best football if you're worried about a shoulder popping out um during the game. The issue is, now that they've got the acquisitions of Badlem Barras, Sicily should in theory be that third defender that's able to roam an intercept and and do what he wants. However, with their forward line issues and the fact that he is that swingman, is there scope for him to swing forward? Now, if he's starting forward, then clearly that's a no. I don't think it's that big a deal if he's being swung forward late in the fourth quarter to try and win them the game.
00:38:43
Holmesy
Luke, but i are you someone that's cooled on a James Sicily? Or, I mean, I know he's got the early buy, which once again makes it tricky, but where are you at with Sicily at the moment?
00:38:53
Luke Rogo
Yeah, he's not at the Oxlongs, but it's very much only for that reason that there's talk of him playing forward. ah Like I said, sort of on our podcast a couple of weeks back, this to me, from my perspective, is one of the layup picks. If he can be the third tall in a Hawthorne defence, even if they play a different game style, he's going to be lining up on effectively, if I can Terry top up in the forward pocket, just giving it a bit of, see you later, boss. I'm over here.
00:39:18
Luke Rogo
Um, there's no way he could couldn't go to just, you know, just shy of a hundred. I reckon, um, the Ford bit scares me, but like you said, it's, it's as easy as just watching in the preseason games, listening to, um, listening to what Sam Mitchell has to say, and even looking at it and opening round as
Fantasy Value & Scoring Volatility Discussion
00:39:34
Luke Rogo
well.
00:39:34
Luke Rogo
The, the by, to be honest, doesn't scare me. Am I right in saying they've got the round four by, um, that's me.
00:39:39
Jon Harmey
Yep.
00:39:40
Holmesy
Yeah, with Essendon, so not too many defenders that we're looking at.
00:39:44
Luke Rogo
Exactly. And that to me, same with Will Day, is enough. You you get five price cycles by the time you even have to think about the guy on the buy. So there's just so much water to go under the bridge before you even get there. So big Sicily, ah if he's in defence.
00:39:59
Holmesy
Yeah. And that's, that's the issue. And I never like picking players that have that potential role changing games. Like it's a, it's a nervous watch. And the moment they swing forward, it's like, yeah, I'm an idiot. You could have seen this coming from a mile away. However, I i don't think he's getting enough love at the moment. Um, I think he's, he's got potential to go 95, a hundred, uh, given the role. And if that comes to fruition, then he's someone that I'll definitely look at. Luke, why don't you finish this off with your last player?
00:40:28
Luke Rogo
I want to talk about Dan Houston because typically with with all players anyway, when they go to a new club, we we automatically, we get our eyes on them and we hope for an uptick in fantasy scoring. But Dan Houston for me is is more questions than answers and it's got to do Obviously, the the early buy comes into play here, but to me, it's it's just got to do with his volatility and his scoring at Port Adelaide. And this is not necessarily something just from last year, but this is something from previous years. You'll always see a decent average next to Houston's name, but if you look at the week-to-week scores, he's he's got what I would consider a pretty scary flaw. Does going to Collingwood change something that
00:41:09
Luke Rogo
impacts that, I guess, is the the question that I have. And for him to be a worthwhile pick for us um this year, we want to see a little bit of value. And for him to improve on what he did last year and and be that value, he'd have to ah instantly go into the the top three top two scorers at Collingwood. So I think just off the top of my head, the the top three scorers were Darcy Cameron and the the two Daikos boys.
00:41:33
Luke Rogo
um And then it might've been Jack k Crisp after that, but we're we're getting into the mid-90s average anyway. So unless you see him leap frogging all those guys and suddenly being that kind of 100 guy, I'm a little hesitant on this one.
00:41:47
Holmesy
look if ah
00:41:47
Jon Harmey
yeah well Jack Crisp jack frisk got it done for me, backlining Collingwood, he went into the midfield, but before that he was pumping out hundreds in the backline for them.
00:41:57
Jon Harmey
The thing with Houston is, he's priced at 94, so you're paying a lot for him um you know on the chance that he he has an uptick in scoring. I see a lot of people talking about Port Adelaide, who's going to get the Houston role at Port Adelaide?
00:42:11
Jon Harmey
but When you look at it, he isn't all Australian, two time all Australian maybe, I think.
00:42:14
Holmesy
if
00:42:17
Jon Harmey
So like the guy is just a ah ripping player. There isn't any, I ah i mean, I don't, I could be wrong, but I don't think there's going to be anybody at Port Adelaide who's going to take the Dean Houston role because there's not another Dean Houston sitting there ready to do it.
00:42:30
Jon Harmey
So he'll take his good scoring ability and take that to Collingwood and he'll probably average about the same, I reckon. and
00:42:36
Holmesy
Yeah, look, if if we look back at the end of the year and Dan Houston's had a career year where he's finally put it together and he's averaged over 100, that wouldn't surprise me whatsoever. I think he's been playing in a defensive line that's not really conducive to scoring. As Hami pointed out, he's just a very, very good player.
00:42:52
Holmesy
And we have seen Mick Dacos score very well from the half back line. We've seen his brother score well at times when he's had to play the roll back there. Collingwood do seem like a very top-heavy team, Luke, so I wouldn't necessarily worry about Houston having to leapfrog those other guys and the other guys to come back. I think he could just slot in and be one of the top scorers because they are that top-heavy.
00:43:15
Holmesy
him not playing opening round and then having the buy in round three, I think that just absolutely rules him out as a starting option because you have no idea how his role is lining up.
00:43:18
Jon Harmey
Right.
00:43:25
Holmesy
And we know it's going to be off half back, but you still, you'd want to see it in opening round. Um, so for that reason, I think he's a, he's a pass, but like I said, I put him on the watch list because there's every chance that we are trading into him at some point this year because he's close enough to a top six defender and he's got a good juicy run coming up that we can really benefit because we know on his day, he's got a ceiling as big as anyone. Hami, why don't you give us your last.
00:43:49
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I'll just throw out a bit of a speculative pick on this last one, um Holmesy. And that is Ari Shellmaker from the Saints and he's 2.8% owned. The main reason I'll sort of, um I guess I'm highlighting him is the people that are left, ah the Saints backline, and there being a ah good role for him there. So he only played four games last year. He came in first game, 74 points, pretty decent. He actually averaged 59 points for the season, but he gets a discount based on only playing four games. So he's priced at 48, which I'll come back to or circle back to that. So he was a big junior fantasy scorer.
00:44:34
Jon Harmey
I see that, you know, they brought in Travalia and Tauru, but I'm not sure if either of them are really going to be ready to hit the ground running. I think Tauru might have had coming back from injury anyway. He's on a modified program. So um you got Sinclair and you got Wangadine Melira. They take the bulk of the kick-ins and that's fine, but this guy has a pretty lethal kick on him. So I wouldn't be surprised if they are going to look for him at times he's 194 centimeters and unlike Sicily who I believe will be playing in the forward line he's that perfect size to be fading off and taking those marks in the Saints defense so yep no Josh Battle he's gone to the Hawks
00:45:18
Jon Harmey
Bonner's delisted um and yeah, Dougal Howard out of the equation too. I'll say that there should be a good role for Ari. The only question mark that I had is, he's at that price point where you'd be better off taking a rookie if they can average 70 as well, but I'm not really seeing them. So perhaps you do have to pay up for an Ari Shuremaker and take somebody that's gonna be best 23.
00:45:46
Holmesy
Luke Mitch is really big on the the sample size. So four games last year, not ah not a big sample size. You've got Josh Battle in that system who was a ah pretty good player. Hawks paid up big for him. He was only able to average 73. So you'd think that that's probably like a ah best case, knowing that he's a second year player. Are we only really looking at an Ari Schoenmaker because now there's doubt around Coleman and we're looking for someone around that price point to to pivot to without affecting our structure? Or do you think he's someone that we should be seriously looking at?
00:46:15
Luke Rogo
I mean, yeah, yeah, maybe there's an element of of that to it. But in terms of the sample size, I ah don't really mind that so much because it's the same with rookies. We we essentially have a zero sample size with them and and like Hami sort of suggested, we might look at him as as just a more expensive rookie that we hope can do something similar. um It's one of those ones where I'd want to see a little bit from it in the, in the pracke matches.
00:46:39
Luke Rogo
um And then it might even be one that you can see a week of too, if you see a bit more Jack Sinclair potentially up and around the ball and maybe it's sort of him and Wang and then Miller or the Wang off the back, then it might be something that I'd i'd buy into. we I mean, we need someone to put their hand up, don't we?
00:46:58
Holmesy
Yep, definitely watch it. We know that the Saints have a very scoring heavy system from the back line. Typically, I don't like to start a player in this price range that's still technically a rookie. I think there's going to be a pretty nervous best 22 watch each week, but yeah, definitely someone too to keep on the radar, that's for sure. My last player, we're going to go with Harry Perryman, so 4.5% owned.
00:47:22
Holmesy
price at 74 after a down year in in defense at GWS, but we do like to look at players that have moved clubs for more opportunity. The question I have is, is there going to be a consistent midfield role at Collingwood? Because I think that's what we need from him. I don't think he's going to score well as Mr Fixit in the back line, especially with a Dan Houston potentially going back there and and soaking up a lot of those points. So what does he look like in his career when he's had sort of midfield role?
00:47:49
Holmesy
So he has had a career best season of 86 and a half before back in 2022, which did actually have an injured score of 30 in there. So that's a 90 average, which is pretty good, but that was in defense at GWS and they did like to score back there.
00:48:04
Holmesy
He's had little spurts in the CBA's where he's had an 88 average from any game in his career where he's had above 50% CBA's.
00:48:07
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:48:12
Holmesy
So there is, There is scoring upside. The issue is I think we're kind of looking at a ah Harry Perriman because of what we mentioned before, where there's not a lot of options. So can we get a guy with 10 to 15 points upside just to get close enough compared to in years gone by? We'd really be looking for 20 to 25.
00:48:31
Holmesy
Luke, we had Jack Crisp have an eight-game stretch last year where he was getting above 70% CBAs and he actually went at 107.5, so it can be done in the in the Collingwood system. The question is, do you see Perriman as a center-mounts midfielder at Collingwood?
00:48:45
Luke Rogo
Yeah, it can be done. I think Crispy's a hell of a player. I think he probably is is a better player than Perriman. Like you mentioned, there's there's little patches in his career where he has played, um let's call it around, sort of 50% CBAs greater than 40, 10 games, and he's kind of averaged that 85.
00:49:02
Luke Rogo
So priced at, what is he priced at?
00:49:05
Holmesy
76, 74, running.
00:49:06
Luke Rogo
74. I mean, probably still you're probably still happy with that, but there's probably too much up in the air ah for me, especially in a midfield that we expect to be absolutely dominated by one end-day costs. He'd have to jump into into the top five scorers at Collingwood. And like you said, they are top-heavy, but I've still had my reservations about whether he can he can be in the top five scorers of that team.
00:49:30
Holmesy
Yeah, and the other issue is with opening round is like we mentioned, Houston won't be playing. So is the role that he plays in opening round going to be reflective of what he's going to do for the the remainder of the year? That's all up for grabs. But Tom Mitchell ah reportedly struggling to get up for round zero at the moment and and Nick Dacos dealing with his foot issue as well. We all know Nick Dacos will get up and play, but there is a little bit of moving parts in that Collingwood midfield. So definitely one to have a look and I can see why the community is at least looking at him at this stage.
00:49:59
Holmesy
All right, lads, we've been going for a while. So what we're going to do with all the listener requests, we're going to play a little bit of like or dislike. So I'll give you some stats and I'll get some quick thoughts, either a like or dislike for these players. So Hami, first one up, we have Matt Roberts, so 5% owned. So the the comp's looking at him a little bit. So priced at 76, but the reason that the comp's looking at him, after a red vest in round 17, he then went on to average 104.5 in his last seven games. So that is some pretty impressive scoring firm from a rookie.
00:50:30
Holmesy
bit of a flag in his three finals, he went 57, 71 and 73. So we do know finals are a different ah type of game, but still um that has shown a bit of a flaw that we absolutely can't have from a player that we're playing paying up 74, but is Matt Roberts a like or dislike for you?
00:50:46
Jon Harmey
No, I really like him. He had three vests last year, in fact. And and yeah if he's got that if he's got a good role, then it's something you can look at. It's just how many of those early-bite guys can you start with in defence. But yeah I do like him as a pick.
00:51:03
Holmesy
Luke, Max Holmes, 9.36% owned, priced at 95. He does have an early buy, but went at 100 last year pre-buy, which obviously means he dropped off in the back half of the year. But was that due to fatigue playing midfield for the first time heavily in his career? We need him to go 102 plus and be a top six defender from that price point and and maybe even a little bit higher considering he's having that buy. But can you see him being that player in ah in a Geelong system?
00:51:30
Luke Rogo
I think that's the big, big one for me is the Geelong system. homes It's hard to predict. And and typically, ah team success kind of comes above all down at Geelong. and And that can kind of impact fantasy scoring. So it's a no from me. um But, you know, do I expect him to go pretty similar to what he did last year? Yeah, I can see that.
00:51:50
Holmesy
sticking with his teammate, Hami Lawson Humphrey. So 3.44% owned. So bit of a bit of a pod priced at 69 gets a slight discount off his 71 average from paying nine games. ah He did have an injured game of 30 in there. So that average does jump up to 76, but banking on and a bit of natural progression here. And Geelong do have a relatively tough run to start for defenders.
00:52:14
Holmesy
Is it a little bit of a nervous start for a Lawson Humphries knowing that we haven't seen it and we really need him to jump up to that sort of 90 month?
00:52:21
Jon Harmey
I'm not looking at Lawson Humphries as a starting pick. I think people are probably getting a bit of an emotional attachment to the fact that he was a good rookie pick for him last year and hoping he will just continue with that, but I don't think he and necessarily will.
00:52:35
Holmesy
Perfect, Luke. This one's a ah good one for you with Dan Rioli. So one of your Tigers moving to Gold Coast.
00:52:41
Luke Rogo
Okay.
00:52:41
Holmesy
4.5% owned. There was talk of a knee injury early on in preseason, so I'm not sure if he's back to full training yet, but priced at 83.5%. He did go 94.5% post-buy, so a bit of an uptick in scoring, potentially trying to get that bigger contract at the Gold Coast.
00:52:57
Holmesy
It does have an early buy, but do you think it could be an option coming off his buy if maybe we're looking at starting some of these round three buy players and maybe having that pivot ability, as you like to say, and and jumping off?
00:53:10
Luke Rogo
It certainly could be an option post-buy, depending on what's going on. For me to start the season, I'm going to say no. I've always imagined Rioli is that that bouncy guy off half-back as well. So if he has um sort of 20 possessions and absolutely kills you with every single one of them with his meters gained, then that's when he's playing his best footy for the team. I don't expect him to suddenly become a 25, 30.
00:53:32
Luke Rogo
position a game chip are kind of guy at Gold Coast. they're They're going to want to play ah that dimmer kind of game style as well. They're going to want to move it fast, a bit of chaos ball in there as well. So I wouldn't expect um a massive breakout season from him from a fantasy perspective.
00:53:47
Jon Harmey
Isn't he a better version of Alex Sexton? And he's just gonna carve it up? I reckon he was not a bad pick.
00:53:53
Luke Rogo
No, no one's going to get a
00:53:54
Jon Harmey
It's a shame they brought that by.
00:53:58
Jon Harmey
Yeah, Flanders, he's taking the Flanders role. um I reckon he's a good pick if they didn't have that by.
00:54:04
Holmesy
Yeah, unfortunately, though, if you do wait to jump on him after his buy, they have Eagles around one. And I think that has potential to be that ceiling score for him that yet you're not going to get.
00:54:11
Luke Rogo
Goodbye.
00:54:12
Jon Harmey
any
00:54:14
Holmesy
But Hami, favorite of the Pod Pod, why don't you tell the listeners why that why you are one of the 0.2% ownership of Darcy Tucker at this point in time.
00:54:23
Jon Harmey
Oh yeah, no, Stado and Dossie will be all over Dossie Tucker, but not for me, sadly, this season, um because ah they brought in him and Loewe, didn't they, and um packaged him up, brought him across. I just think that,
00:54:40
Jon Harmey
he hasn't probably come to fruition of what they thought he was going to be and he's still a depth player there that they bring in when they need someone to plug a gap or an injury spot.
00:54:51
Holmesy
Luke, another one of your Tiger boys. Everyone's looking at Jaden Short, but ah a small portion of the comp are looking at his teammate, Nick Vlosten. So priced at 81.5, went at 90 after round 13 and has averaged 90 before. Is there potential of him being a little pot option here or it's all Jaden Short?
00:55:10
Luke Rogo
Well, you spot on that that no one's talking about him. There's the potential for him to be a pot option. Like you said, he's shown a little bit of a ah yeah an ability to score in the past. And he could be one of those those cooler heads down back that when things are going very poorly, um take a bit of heat out of the game. I don't think I have the kahooners for it. ah If you do, I take my hat off to you.
00:55:31
Holmesy
Army, one of your bomber boys, Archie Roberts. So priced at 70, which is down from the 85 that he averaged off that four game sample size. But the question I have, what is his role and can he score?
00:55:43
Jon Harmey
Oh yeah, he's a great player. But look, I think I said this last week and you laughed at me, Holmsey, but the hardest 23 in the competition to crack into at the moment, the bomb was particularly in the back line, man, with Dylan Schill clogging up a spot in our back line. How's Archie Roberts going to get a game?
00:56:00
Jon Harmey
No, look, ah really, I just don't think that we've seen enough games from him. um And he's not somebody that would probably pay up to that extent um without him being solidified in our best 23, which I don't think he is at this point of his career.
00:56:17
Holmesy
agree with that. Luke, someone that's in your team, why don't you sell us quickly on Bailey Dale, priced at 92.6 off the back of a career year. Um, he had that sub game, but if, if we do a little bit of our stat manipulation here, if we remove one of his floor scores, but then also remove the 160, went at 95.5, which is a little bit of upside.
00:56:38
Holmesy
Is that really what you're hoping you're going to get plus a little bit more?
00:56:42
Holmesy
Is there potential that he drops back?
00:56:42
Luke Rogo
Yeah, I'm hoping hoping for a little bit more there.
00:56:46
Luke Rogo
I think that there's something to be said for, yes, you take out the the sub impact again, but I think There's something to be said for a little bit of continuity for a guy like that too. I know that, um you know, Caleb Daniel and Ed Richards weren't necessarily chewing into his points last year, but just just the fact that I feel like he's going to have a bit of a monopoly across halfback. He's a great kick. um I think that that continuity could be worth three or four points of upside as well. So if we can get him to just below a ton, then I'm happy with that pick.
00:57:16
Holmesy
harmy Next one we have here is Kane Farrell, so priced at 78.4 off the back of her career year. Now, we've already spoken about Dan Houston leaving, which is another 80 kick-ins that Port Adelaide, in theory, need to distribute. Farrell already had 85 of them, so he was already pretty high up in the pecking order there.
00:57:36
Holmesy
He's always had a floor, so last year he had three games under 60 and then another, or eight games in total under 70. To me, he gives off quality over quantity vibes, but is he someone you're still looking at?
00:57:47
Jon Harmey
Yeah. Yeah, I think I sort of foreshadowed my position a little bit earlier in the podcast where I said that I don't believe there is another Dan Houston and and that um speaks to Kane Farrell. He's not getting more kick-ins than that. 85 is super high, like that's a really high proportion as it was. It's probably, if you're looking thinking about that um statistic, there are others that will get a bump from a kick-in perspective at Port, not him.
00:58:14
Jon Harmey
Look, I think that he is probably attached underpriced, but probably not to the extent where he's going to be a smash pick for us.
00:58:23
Holmesy
Agree with that one there. Hami, Liam Duggan ah priced at 89 after going at 96 the year prior. um He did have an injured game ah last year, which takes his average up to 93. So potentially a little bit of upside, but there was a floor game of 28 in round 24 against Geelong, which has me seriously concerned. I'm not sure how you can be the captain of a footy club and play a full game and only score 28 points, but Liam Duggan, I think there is upside and if everything went right for him, I think he has potential to be that 95 to 100 guy.
00:58:56
Holmesy
But what has me a little bit worried is the new coach, new game style that you would know also well coming from Richmond. Is he someone that has come down and and at least been in the showers at the Oxlongs or is not someone you're looking at at all?
00:59:08
Jon Harmey
Holmes, just before before Luke goes here, I just had a look at that LEO thing, and he's done a syndesmosis ankle injury too, so he could be out for a while. So just bear that in mind, Luke, as your answer.
00:59:21
Luke Rogo
I think, I think he's probably still a no for me. um But it's, it's just for that very reason that you kind of probably touched on, sometimes he's just, there's so much up in the air. So it's, is he half back? Is he midfield? Even with this yo thing, they've obviously brought in Graham and Baker, um who, so, you know, do they just plug that spot rather than Duggan? And like you say, even in periods where, throughout the last couple of years, where he's been in either of those roles, he hasn't really shown that, like, monster stretch where he's gone, this, this is, you know, this is my role. Let's rock and roll.
00:59:48
Luke Rogo
So no for me, but um I can see that harm is maybe getting more and more interested as time goes on.
00:59:55
Holmesy
army, uh, potential Kitty Coleman replacement, Sam de Koning. So Tom's brother at Geelong priced at 55, uh, has the awkward early buy around. But the reason that coaches are potentially looking at him is potential rock time. If, if Stanley doesn't get up and and Conway's no good. So He did have a five game run last year playing in the ruck where he averaged 87.4, which is pretty big upside from his 55 price tag. It would be a nervous own knowing that Geelong liked to have a bit of a ah ah roundabout of their ruckmen with Blitzah, Stanley, Conway, all sort of going through there. But opening round, if he's the if he's the main ruck, could you do it or you think you could just change at any point and be a bit of a too nervous own?
01:00:39
Jon Harmey
All right, well, ah Luke got a question for you. Is Sam de Koning the number one Rock Agilong?
01:00:47
Luke Rogo
nine Nice.
01:00:48
Jon Harmey
I don't think he is either. So I think that's probably the answer that we're all looking for. If he if he you it does it in round zero and pre-season games, okay, but I just don't think he is at the moment.
01:00:59
Holmesy
Agree with that loop. Wayne Miller priced at 56 after another injury riddled year. He has done 79 in the past. We keep going back to this, but could you go there?
01:01:11
Luke Rogo
Time to go back to the well. Just don't.
01:01:15
Holmesy
Perfect, don't need any more said there, Hami. Joel Frazier was requested, so priced at 61, banking on a bit of natural progression. They admittedly did look good for a first year rookie. um looked like ah Looked like an AFL player from the moment he came in into the Bulldogs, but these type of players where we're really banking on natural progression, i'm I'm thinking a bit of a no go zone.
01:01:38
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I just feel like he's a bit of a fringe player. I mean, they've got Bailey Dale. They like Locky Bramble there at the Bulldogs in that back line for some you know for some reason. And for a lot of periods last year, um JJ was injured and he's back full training. So I don't know if there's a spot for Rome Frazier on the back flank there at the Bulldogs.
01:02:00
Holmesy
perfect lads that uh that wraps up a huge episode so many players that we went through there so listeners i'm sure i hope you got a lot out of that i know i did just then talking through those players and Yeah, the defensive line is seriously tricky this year. and And I don't know about you guys, but
01:02:01
Jon Harmey
thank
Ballboys' Future Plans & Listener Engagement
01:02:18
Holmesy
I'm all for it. I think anything that makes the game interesting and and harder to play is is really gonna, yeah, make it interesting and and make the good coaches shine. But Luke, where can all the the listeners find you? and And why don't you quickly just give us a rundown of what the ball boys have in store for 2025.
01:02:35
Luke Rogo
Yeah, thanks, guys. Firstly, thanks for having me on. I really appreciate it. Always love chatting with you guys and and listening to your content. um In terms of what we've got going on, we've got the the normal stuff going on on over on YouTube. So all our preseason content, we're aiming for about 3 episodes a week. One of those will normally be some draft stuff with Mitch. um So that's all going to be coming to you season as is, but we've actually just today um ah at time of recording announced that we're going to be ah opening up a Patreon as well for anyone that I guess wants bonus content. So if you're happy with what we've been doing or you just want to jump on and support us, it's www w dot.patreon dot.com forward slash ball boys. And so a heap of different offerings over there is just bonus content. If if ah you can't get enough of Mitch and his fat head, um that's the place to be.
01:03:21
Holmesy
Luke, just before we wrap up, have you considered what it's going to be like if Luke, if Mitch doesn't have another year where he backs it up and he's, he's not in the hunt and you're having to deal with that in the Patreon?
01:03:32
Luke Rogo
Yeah, I can give you the hot tip. I won't be spending much time over here at his place. I'll tell you that. But the other thing too is, that I mean, it's a little bit of a plug, but where what we're offering is if you do sign up to the Patreon prior to the season starting and and stick with us for the year and you outrank Mitch for the season, you're going to get half your money back as well. So the the pressure has never been bigger on Mitch and I'm interested to see whether he'll crumble onto it or not.
01:03:58
Holmesy
Oh, that's elite. Love it. Love it. Hami, thanks again for jumping on, mate. Big preseason for you coming up. the The team's all starting to shape up. How confident are you feeling now that we're about to start to get into the practice matches and with round zero and round one, just around the corner?
01:04:14
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I'm feeling pretty good, haven't been changing my team too much, actually homesy, but obviously, um yeah, with that LEO news, I'll have to find a spot for ah Liam Duggan to come back into my defense. Yeah, but just that, I don't know, ah yeah I registered for the Magic Sports a slider comp during the week, so that's cool. I'll have a look at, had a bit of a look at that and looks like a decent platform as well. So now I'm just continuing to tick away on some, um yeah, some research in advance around zero.
01:04:43
Holmesy
Army doing it like a pro, mate. This episode is brought to you by Slider dot.team, the new draft comp. So if you haven't signed up for that yet, $1,000 prize up for grabs for the best drafter, which is, or anything from a free comp is unreal. So I would highly recommend you go and check that out.
01:04:59
Holmesy
If you're not following us on Twitter, we are at Pod Pod AFL. I'm at Homesies Heroes. If you aren't subscribed to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, make sure you do that or wherever you listen to your content. And as always, if you could leave us a rating and review, that would be greatly appreciated. Our player positional previews are done now, so we'll be back next week with some new content and ah hopefully another special guest for the Homes Files where we're really getting into the strategy coming into the season. Enjoy. it