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Bounce Back Week | Hat Hunting | AFL Fantasy Q&A #PODPOD
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We said it last week and we will say it again, a week is a LONG time in AFL Fantasy! After a week where many teams limped past 2000 points, this week we saw coaches push 2300+ and put some serious points on the pack. The boys have you covered for a round 7 review!
On this episode, Holmesy, Harmey and Sam review the round that was. They tackle a stack of hot topics as they round table all of the key strategy talking points, They also discuss a bunch of relevant trade in players whilst answering a stack of listener questions!
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Transcript
AFL Fantasy Classic Round 7 Review
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Monday, 28th of April. Round 7 has been and gone and we are starting to see some serious ranking shifts with those coaches that have been doing the right thing, building their cash and getting those rookies off field.
00:00:37
Holmesy
We've got ah no John Harmy on the podcast tonight. He unfortunately sends his... Well, he's a bit upset after the one time he put Hugo Garcia on the field this year.
00:00:49
Holmesy
um He copped a 20. So he he apologizes he apologizeises to the listeners, but he can't show his face. As always, though, we have ah the perennial top 1,000 finisher, Louis, who's still casually flying, but we'll get to that. Louis, how are you going tonight, mate?
00:01:08
Lew
Yeah, not too bad, mate. It's um been an interesting week of fantasy and I think um these's coming this certainly this coming week and the weeks following is going to be a period where teams really start to differentiate now.
00:01:21
Holmesy
Yeah, that's it. I'm looking forward to this week's of trades. I feel like they're they're not as obvious and we're starting to see some teams with cash really be able to attack and others might be in ah a bit of a holding pattern as some of those rookies you know fatten or or aren't quite there.
00:01:37
Holmesy
But yeah, we're we're going to get into that. And he's had a couple of weeks off, but he his rule is that he only comes on the podcast when his ranking increases. And boy, have we seen that this week.
00:01:48
Holmesy
Sam, mate, good to have good to have you up.
00:01:52
Sam
Yeah, thanks, Holmesy. Yeah, did manage to have a good week, so obviously I'll be back. And um yeah, um I agree. i'm I'm really looking forward to this week's trades.
Emotional Rollercoaster and Player Highlights
00:02:01
Sam
I enjoyed the discussion around last week's as well, because things do get interesting this time of year.
00:02:08
Holmesy
Now, Sam, but before we get into the the podcast, there is there is something I want to go over. But would you say that you're a little bit dramatic throughout the weekend in the group chats and in our DMs with with how your fantasy weekend's going?
00:02:22
Sam
and I think i ah you know there's at some points in the week where I want to own every player in the league and at the same time also get rid of every player in my team. So look, there's there's certainly some up and downs as the matches unfold, but one constant in my life is Lockie Ash, and he is the greatest of all time.
00:02:40
Lew
Mm-hmm.
00:02:40
Holmesy
Well, that's that's a good segue, Sam, because i've I've got some receipts here that I'd like the the listeners to hear.
00:02:47
Sam
Oh no, here we go.
00:02:48
Holmesy
six days 16th of March in our in our DMs, ah we're chatting, and you've ah you've mentioned that this Hollands and Ash play is going to haunt you for a while. ah 21st of March, you're a bit upset about having to hold Perryman, and you said, I would have traded Ash if I didn't have Perryman.
00:03:08
Holmesy
ah And then you were really, really depressed about how your round was going. This was on the 22nd of March and you said, well, this doesn't really help me because I have to hold Ash.
00:03:18
Sam
Well,
00:03:18
Holmesy
um I don't know about you, Louis, but you know getting a ah top six defender at a 75 price tag and going up 200k probably a pretty good player, don't you think?
00:03:28
Lew
Yeah, definitely. it's ah It's been some pick. it's It's incredible what he's doing at the moment. And alongside Lockie Whitfield, who's going at about 120 clip too. So yeah, hats off to Sam. And yeah, good thing he didn't trade them.
00:03:43
Holmesy
Yeah, look, yeah we're going to get into it, but with the way you've spoken about your SAM team, you wouldn't think you've got a top 400 ranking, but but there there we are.
00:03:44
Sam
well
00:03:54
Sam
Yeah, look, i have I've come into rank 3-6-4, finally made a bit of ground on Louis, which was nice, ah but not through, you know, jammy plays such as looping with wicks and editing my trades last minute. This was just good, honest fantasy ah play.
00:04:13
Sam
and So, yeah, it was nice to to make a little bit of ground on um on a few of the people at the top.
Scores, Trades, and Ranking Strategies
00:04:19
Holmesy
Yeah, far out. Sam Wick's the gift that keeps on giving, Lou, which we're going to get to, Sam. But what are what round score did that have you at and where were you ranked before that?
00:04:29
Sam
I, um, I scored 2,306 um, I think I was ranked at about 500 or 600 ish. I actually can't remember. So must've come in two or 300 ranks, which was obviously very nice. Um, and I guess that was off the back of, you know, a few good scores and, you know, getting the VC on max on, on Thursday night is always nice. It, um, makes for a much, ah well, a stress-free weekend basically.
00:04:59
Holmesy
Yep, yep. Couldn't agree more, which we're going to into. I had the 2997 this week. So just shy of you, Sam. Unfortunately, Max Holmes not getting the job done over Ryan Marrick, of all people.
00:05:12
Holmesy
But that actually saw me go from 5,700 into 2683. So finally had that week where it's all come together. I felt like with my my team value and the way my team was going, I'd had a few unlucky things with the trainer and um whatno So it was nice to put it all together and and fingers crossed that's a sign of things to come over the next couple of weeks with getting that team value on field. Lou, but how did you go?
00:05:37
Lew
Yeah, not too bad. um I got 22.38, so a little bit lower than you boys, but um probably went sideways on my trades a bit this week and I'm quite happy with them.
00:05:48
Lew
So no complaints there. I slipped back a little bit, so I'm down at 3.35 now, so um just under 100 ranks have gone back. But no, pretty ah pretty happy with the week that's been.
00:06:02
Holmesy
Boys, any time that you're ah in the top 400, let alone at this time of the year, coming up to the buyers is a very, very good thing. So keen to watch how you guys attack over the next couple of weeks and hopefully find yourself knocking on the door of that top 100. Lou, why don't you give us your Stato pick of the week?
00:06:19
Lew
Yeah, so I'm going to give it ah for the second week in a row to Sam Wicks, just because ah he was a laid out on the weekend, which allowed me to do the loop. ah Garcia was on my bench with the E and obviously scored 20. I'm sure we'll touch on that a bit later in the podcast, but yeah.
00:06:39
Lew
Caden Cleary came onto my field and and the reason for that was on the Friday night I had a dream that um Caden Cleary went 99 and woke up, questioned myself ah and then thought well why am I dream why am' i dreaming about Caden Cleary and instead of looking within I looked out and um decided maybe you'll just go on my on field in fantasy and uh Yeah, that that ended up being the the rookie pick of the week on field with um Zach Reid sort of going 74. And um yeah, i was pretty happy with that.
00:07:15
Sam
So you're hearing this this voodoo magic that Louie's using jank his way to a Hilux Holmesie?
00:07:16
Holmesy
yeah say
00:07:23
Holmesy
i am I am hearing it, Sam. But I'm not going to lie, last week I did feel a little bit guilty, um you following along with me, putting Cleary on field over Davidson.
00:07:33
Holmesy
But you can see why, right? Cleary, he's a solid footballer. He's got a good role. He had an off game against Port, but he's going to make some serious cash for us.
Rookie Players and Strategic Decisions
00:07:43
Sam
Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, we were unlucky to cop his 30 last week, I think. hes He's definitely playing around the pill. He tackles, he finds space. um He looks very complete.
00:07:53
Sam
So, you know, he's one that maybe we can field for a little bit now if we want to get off, say, an Ashcroft um and or get aggressive and get off a trainer a read now.
00:08:05
Holmesy
Yeah, it would be nice to to maybe have a loop option at some points. I feel like he's a he's a rookie that you'd be very comfortable looping most weeks, knowing that you can get potentially get an 80 plus. But I don't think those thirty s are going to be there too often. I think it was just a ah freak game against Port Adelaide where they dominated and he he just had an off game. But yeah, I do really like Cleary and hopefully he can push up above 600k for us and make some serious coins, Sam. But what's your Stato pick for the week?
00:08:32
Lew
Thank
00:08:33
Sam
I'm going to give mine to Tom DeConing because I was ah toying all week with um taking him up to Sherry. And it was actually, Lou, you talked me out of it in the end because i was if I did that move, I was going to be banking quite a bit of coin.
00:08:49
Sam
um And so I decided to to spend it elsewhere and and fix and you know upgrade a rookie. And, yeah, Tom DeConing obviously had a ah great game. I personally did not see it coming. I had him penciled in for an 80 90 game.
00:09:02
Sam
um But yeah, full credit to him, 110 plus, and he's definitely going to be around for another couple of weeks, I reckon.
00:09:10
Holmesy
So it sounds like Lou's done some good things for both of us this week, Sam. Lou, you have any idea why you think my Stato pick of the week is for you, Louie?
00:09:20
Lew
ah ah well um Well, what was it, Thursday night, um just before you went on your camping trip, Holmesy, we sort of went over the VC and C's and because I wouldn't be able to get in contact with you from Friday onwards and I started to panic a little bit before the lockout and I thought...
00:09:41
Lew
I can't change the VC for Holmesy without him knowing we have to do what was discussed and then I thought you know what screw it because I'm changing like Holmesy needs to change with me so we went from Dawson with the VC to Max Gorn so that was a nice one to get on the on the Thursday night and like you said Sam it's a it's a great way to start the week isn't it the pressure's off in terms of the captaincy um school
00:10:04
Holmesy
but So there is a little bit of a story here. So obviously, yeah. So I'd i'd given Louis my reins for my team. i I was going camping. I wasn't going to see any of the teams. um And i yeah we talked through the options, but I said that the number one thing is, Louis, you've got reins to do what you want, right? So this is what I'm thinking. But you know if something happens or shit hits the fan, just you've got reins for my team.
00:10:26
Holmesy
So I don't see any teams. Thursday night, I'm out out camping. And then Friday, the... Everyone we're camping with goes, oh, let's let's go let's go to the beach, which was about a 45-minute drive away. And I was thinking, yeah, all right, this is this is all right.
00:10:39
Holmesy
So I'm driving in the car and then all of a sudden we just start getting reception. So my my watch starts pinging, but I'm driving. So i can't I can't see anything, but these messages start popping through and it's, Gone, 138. I'm thinking, oh my God, like I've missed out on that.
00:10:55
Holmesy
But I saw Lindsay, 98. I was like, yeah, that's good. And I had a ah good inkling that um my my round was going okay. But we drive through town to the beach and we get to the beach and there's no reception there. So I can't check anything.
00:11:08
Holmesy
But then I convinced the missus to stop in at the pub on the way back home in town just so I could have some lunch. And opened the phone and there I opened the app and I'm scrolling down and I say, Campos, Captain, but what's going on there?
00:11:16
Sam
ah No lunch was eaten.
00:11:27
Holmesy
So I knew Lindsay was going to get looped on with that 98, but I didn't know. And I scroll down and I see big Maxi Gorm with the VC. And I just thought, I love that man, Louis. So thank you, Lou.
00:11:38
Holmesy
was It was good. I was rolling into Baz, so I would have got a 132 on Sunday. But yeah, that was that was elite from you, Lou. But why don't you give us your Dossie Pick of the Week?
00:11:50
Lew
I think i've um I've messed this up actually on the spreadsheet. I've got Dossie there. I've got um Ned Long there, which certainly wasn't my Dossie pick last week. Mate, now I've caught off a little bit off guard. Probably ah Garcia trading him over Davidson. I think the logic was there.
00:12:08
Lew
ah Just unfortunate that you know he was subbed off in basically the the start of the second quarter on 20 and lost a bit of cash. um thankfully Davidson didn't go nuts he sort of went in the 51 and that was okay but um yeah one of those ones that you you sort of want to go your way but that that's all right
00:12:21
Holmesy
Sam?
00:12:27
Holmesy
sand
00:12:28
Sam
Yeah, mine's pretty brutal um because he he wasn't too bad. But mine's Ryan Marich, only because he was, I think, 50-odd at halftime. And then I was doing something and came back to look at, you know, his final score thinking, you beauty, he's, you know, he's cracked a ton and his cash chance flying again.
00:12:48
Sam
And we'd only popped out 74. So, um you know, in a good week, it was pretty hard to find a dossie. But, yeah, must be, must go to Ryan.
00:12:58
Holmesy
Yeah, well, i'm goingnna I'll raise you there and and give you a Max Holmes 65. Now, normally what we see with players when they get a tag, um when they come back the next week, they've got a new lease on life. They're sort of running a bit harder for the easy ball that they didn't have the couple of weeks prior. But Max Holmes at the moment,
00:13:15
Holmesy
whether he's a victim of Bailey Smith just grabbing the ball, running and dumping it forward, whether he's carrying something, whether he's just a bit tired, I don't know what it is, but he looks ah a shell of himself of what we saw for you know the first five games when he wasn't getting a tag. So Max Holmes on notice. you know Does he become a trade-in option? He's getting pretty cheap now for what we know he can do. I'm not too sure, but yeah, don't I don't think he's quite healthy at the moment.
00:13:42
Holmesy
um All right, boys, let's just do a bit of ah rate your trades and talk through a little bit of philosophy about what you were looking to do this week. So... um i basically went Hall down to Bustlinger to get a bit of coin.
00:13:56
Holmesy
I thought he was the best available rookie this week that was cheap, that I could get the upgrade on the other end, and that allowed me
Mid-Season Strategy and Cash Generation
00:14:02
Holmesy
to Warner to Petrarca. So Warner scored pretty well, unfortunately. It would have been good for him to have a lower score and and completely stunt his cash, but I'm not too unhappy there.
00:14:12
Holmesy
um Getting in Petrarca, going 1-14, getting a rookie off field and and nailing a top six forward at this point, I think is quite good. and my My strategy is pretty pretty simple at the moment. I've built cash on the bench. I've got a lot of players now that I just need to sort of milk in and get those points on field, Lou. But you said you went sideways. Talk us through a little bit about what you were trying to achieve this week.
00:14:35
Lew
Yeah, I just was looking at all the downgrade targets this week or last week rather, and um it just wasn't an area I wanted to shop in. I wasn't um confident in a bus slinger, and I thought that's okay if he goes well because I can trade him in into him the following week.
00:14:52
Lew
um and So with just a lack of rookies on the horizon. I ah decided to move Davidson over to Long um for the 95 on Anzac Day, which I was quite happy about. um And then I got a little bit, um I went TDK to Cherry. And that was just based on, I wasn't sure if that trade was going to be possible over the next couple of weeks without going, ah you know, breaking that trade cadence. So I was, you know, fully understanding that TDK was probably going to drop one against
00:15:24
Lew
Geelong and I certainly didn't expect the 122 for Sherry but hoping that that's going to be an advantage in the weeks following because um yeah Sherry's matchups over the next couple of weeks are quite juicy and it starts on Thursday night against a 36 year old Todd Goldstein so he'll be getting the VC honours this week the old mentor yep yep
00:15:44
Holmesy
the old The old mentor, the old mentor in Goldie.
00:15:47
Sam
The fossil.
00:15:49
Holmesy
um Sam, we'll get to yours in a sec.
00:15:50
Sam
He is the greatest to ever do it, though, so
00:15:52
Holmesy
Sorry, I just want to yeah, ru of the ruck of the decade. um Before we get into yours, Sam, Lou, there's a question later on, so we may as well touch on it now. Ned Long priced at 67 now, so around that 640K. Do you think it's too late for him now?
00:16:10
Lew
I suppose you'd have to ask yourself what you what you think he can sort of average. I mean, if you look at his last three, he's going at 93. um If he keeps that up, then, yeah, he's still a great target.
00:16:22
Lew
um But keeping in mind that Collingwood... Haven't always facilitated facilitated scoring. There was couple of names last week that didn't score too well. So I think, you know, ah wouldn't be ruling out 60s and 70s for Ned Long just yet, but um he he does look quite good.
00:16:40
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:16:40
Lew
So ah think there's probably 15 points upside there. Personally, at the price tag, I wouldn't be upgrading towards him. I might be getting a little bit creative and dropping down from someone and using that cash um elsewhere just with the lack of rookies that we've got.
00:16:57
Holmesy
Yeah, look, he's he's an interesting one. he He's is' a points-per-minute beast. we've We've seen that now. there's There's more than a few games worth of sample size there. It's just, you know, Collingwood are rotating that midfield, aren't they? Like one week, it's, you know, Dacos, Long, side-bottom, Pendlebury, and then Dugowie comes back and gets a bit more fit. So you'd think he's going to take more and more as his body builds. But yeah, um I'm still torn on it. I think...
00:17:25
Holmesy
Maybe it's a play this week if you're someone that doesn't want to hold an an Adam Chera, which we're going to get to. Maybe you make some cash there by going down to long, which gets you up on the other end from a rookie or something like that.
00:17:36
Holmesy
I'm not too sure. But yeah, it's... Man, if he keeps scoring like this, he's still underpriced.
00:17:39
Lew
ah he He just got on the end of of so many hat kicks as well that were going through the center of the ground. They'd just end up in his breadbasket. So it was it was nice to watch, but I'm not sure it's going to be yeah um consistent. You know, seven marks on the weekend.
00:17:55
Lew
Previous to that, it was 3-1-1-4-2. Yeah.
00:17:59
Lew
um Wouldn't expect that every week. 60% togs a bit interesting, but that might just be the context of ah the Anzac Day game. um But yeah, I know it's a sitting on the fence answer, but I think um ask yourself what he's going to average. And if it's you know closer to 20, then I think it's still a good play.
00:18:18
Holmesy
Sam, what are what trades did you do this week?
00:18:21
Sam
Yeah, did something similar to you, Holmesy. So I did Reid to Busslinger and then Davidson to Petrarca. I actually made a bit of mistake with my trades because for some reason I thought I'd trade haul out ah this week instead of Reid. And then I went to look at them during the Anzac Day game and I went, oh, whoops.
00:18:41
Sam
So, yeah, Zach Reid going, you know, another 70 means I lost out on a bit of cash there and and that hurts. But, you know, um getting Petrarca is always nice. And, yeah. yeah I feel pretty good about what he can do as long as he keeps this strong midfield role.
00:18:58
Holmesy
So Sam, pre-trades this week, how many rookies and who were they did you have on field?
00:19:05
Sam
So I just had the three, which was Treynor, Bice, and Ashcroft.
00:19:12
Holmesy
Yeah, okay. that's ah That's a pretty decent spot. I suppose you do have Marik as well though and Long. But yeah, Lou, ah what rookies did you have on field?
00:19:23
Lew
ah Last week I would have had Levi Ashcroft, Caden Cleary, and Zach Reid and Riley Bisonfield, so four. But that's also yeah including a nedlong and ah sorry excluding a Ned Long and
00:19:39
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, so I had the four as well. So it looks like Sam's a little bit ahead of us there. So I had Bice... Oh, no, yeah, four. Bice, Trena, I played Pryor. So there's the three.
00:19:51
Holmesy
And then I had Xavier Lindsay. So yeah, four's looking... looking like a pretty good spot at the moment. Hopefully we can get one off the field this week without using too much of our cash.
00:20:01
Holmesy
And then, I don't know, like three rookies leading up until the buyers. We don't typically get them all off before the buyers. So it seems like we're a little bit ahead of time this year with those forward options that we had. But...
00:20:15
Holmesy
Sam, just a sort of rough little plan. Do you think you're you're going to carry a few through to the mid-season buys or are you confident that you're going to have them pretty much well off before that sort of round 12 buy hits?
00:20:26
Sam
ah I'm going to try to but one thing I am getting worried about is kind of what I would call you know rookie rookie depth or bent or bench depth, you know particularly because I've gotten a little aggressive over the last few weeks and traded guys like Pryor, Reid, Davidson, and now I'm potentially looking at trading Ashcroft this week as well.
00:20:49
Sam
I have missed out on a little bit of extra cash generation and I don't have those higher scoring rooks on the bench anymore. um So yeah i do get a little bit worried about trading a guy like Ashcroft who we think is going to be pretty reliable and could fill in some spots during buys, particularly when you know our downgrade options for rookies are looking quite thin.
00:21:13
Sam
Like I have no confidence in feeling it fielding Jed Busslinger During the buys, I'm fully expecting his score to drop off. um So i will plan to get as many off field, but I might end up just holding one or two.
00:21:23
Lew
If he's even there, yeah.
00:21:28
Sam
maybe For example, maybe a Cleary, I hold through the buys if he gives me a bit of squad depth.
00:21:35
Holmesy
Yeah, I don't think you worry too much about um fielding them during the buys. We're going to get some rookie scores and they're going to they're going to drop off as it is. But you are right. It's it's getting to an interesting point in the season, Lou, where we're starting to get rid of these good scoring rookies. But if you know if we start getting rid of Ashcroft, Davidson,
00:21:53
Holmesy
Zach Reid, Pryor, these types, then you know what rookies are we going to have to field? You wouldn't feel comfortable having to field maybe a Boxer with his name this week. The the good thing is he's playing on the Friday night, so we'll know nice and early. And a lot of us have still have ah a Camparelli loop or something like that to to have a look at. But does that worry you that if we do milk these cows a little bit early, even though they're getting towards their max price, that we might find ourselves fielding some rookies that ah could potentially hurt us?
00:22:21
Lew
Yeah, no, it's got to be a concern. ah What are we going into round eight this week? And ah round 12 is when the buyers start. these These rookies, they're going to come on field for us. And um if we are cutting them for blokes that aren't going to be around in four, five, six, seven weeks, then that starts to affect you know your best scoring in the best 18 system.
Premium Players and Role Exploration
00:22:45
Lew
Granted that it's going to be a little bit easier just due to having four buy rounds and the teams being spread out a little bit more, but um I would be a little bit nervous about cutting um too much fat off some of these rookies and going to blokes that are 230k and maybe you know not necessarily part of that 22 and we know if they're not debuting in the very early parts of the season then they're probably not best 22 or 23 or or they're on the ah right on the edge and a bad game can sort of kick them out so um it's it's got to be something that we need to be really keenly aware of because you can get caught out when it comes to the buy rounds because of this
00:23:27
Holmesy
Yeah, typically this time of year, I like to to give the rookies at least one week to to at least have a ah decent score in their system to make sure they haven't been obviously the green vest or the red vest and things like that. But you are right that the rookie options are starting to get a little bit thin.
00:23:43
Holmesy
We always get a couple, um maybe not this time a year, but a little bit later. Like I think it were who was the Adelaide rookie last year? that It wasn't Zach Taylor, it was... um ah Billy Dowling was it that that debuted pretty late and and he's he scored pretty well and there's been others in the past that have debuted pretty late we get the mid-season draftees as well sometimes we get a few mature age rookies like in Newcombs that come along that end up being good cash cows for us but yeah it's
00:23:56
Lew
Yeah, I think you're right. Yep.
00:24:11
Holmesy
Definitely this time of year where I've been guilty in the past. I know in 2021 when I did pretty well, I i traded into, ah i think it was Jay Rantel who was a ah basement rookie who was one game in, one game out. and And then you potentially find yourselves a little bit stuck throughout the buy. So although we are in upgrade season and we're trying to get the cash value onto our fields, you it is still super important to make sure that you're trading into the right rookies to make sure the cash gen keeps going as well so that you can continue building later on throughout the year because we do find out, and ah I've done it for the last couple of years, that you can hold on for maybe this round, next round, and the round after. But if your cash gen completely goes, then that's when the other teams start to get ahead of you, Lou.
00:24:51
Lew
Yeah, it's it's interesting because I'm probably not looking at the rookies from a cash generation perspective at the moment. I think i'm it's it's very much can they score and can they make up part of that um field come the buyers because reckon we've got a few cheap options on the horizon.
00:25:09
Lew
We know about Philippou, we know about Mills, we know about Coleman.
00:25:12
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:25:13
Lew
There's a couple of other blokes dropping at a rate of knots at the moment. You mentioned before, you know, a lot of coaches are looking at three or four rookies on field and um some of them are already quite fat. I'm just questioning whether or not this year...
00:25:28
Lew
Might be a year where we don't need to lean on as much um cash coming off of the bench just because, um you know, to start the year, we we did go quite mid-price heavy and maybe that is starting to pay dividends now.
00:25:45
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, you are you are right. it's That's where I suppose the Levi Ashcroft is so valuable. I know a lot of not a lot of coaches, but some went up on him last week to to get to the premium they want, which is fine.
00:25:57
Holmesy
ah But yeah, we we just want to make sure that we still have these players playing throughout the buys to make up our best 18. You are right, Lou, but five weeks of best 18 this year um just means everything's not as condensed and we can get away with a lot more.
00:26:12
Holmesy
Let's get into some more of our hot topics now. Sam, this one must hurt because you've been his number one fan for the last three years, I can remember, and it's only just paying off now. But Adam Chera has got the softest one-week suspension known for man. So at the the time of recording, he has been suspended for a week.
00:26:29
Holmesy
ah Hopefully, he gets off at the, know, they challenge it and he gets off. But at this stage, with it being one week, is it a definite hold for you? Or can you see a world where coaches get aggressive and and play AF that way and and jump off?
00:26:43
Sam
I'm actually yeah flying over to Melbourne to help represent him. I'm going to be giving a a good character statement. um Yeah, he's I'm absolutely Chera's number one fan. um i yeah I think we touched on it earlier. i would ah wouldn't to begrudge coaches um for going, say, Chera to Long, for example, if they haven't gotten Ed Long because that frees up, I'm guessing, close to 300K and that facilitates a rookie upgrade.
00:27:10
Sam
um ah look if his one week suspension does stand I think there's a good chance it's going to get overturned I think I'll be holding him he's someone I'm keen to hold until his round 12 buy and then look to move him on then um you know either upgrade him or you know maybe I get a bit of cash downgrading him to some other mid-pricer that's um that's popped and is looking good so Yeah, look, i'm holding to i'm I'm looking to hold this week, but I think Cherita Long could be a popular trade as well.
00:27:42
Holmesy
Can you confirm as a lawyer that if you were representing him, you'd be using the Chewbacca defense?
00:27:48
Sam
well What's the Chewbacca defense?
00:27:52
Holmesy
South Park? No. Oh, that fell flat. Fair enough.
00:27:55
Sam
Nah, sorry, mate.
00:27:55
Holmesy
Let's move on.
00:27:56
Sam
I'm a Simpsons guy. I'm a big Stevie Fizz Simpsons guy. I wouldn't get any South Park references.
00:28:00
Holmesy
Oh, yeah.
Defender Evaluations and Upgrades
00:28:02
Holmesy
That's right. Fair enough. All right. our Next hot topic, Sammy, you've put this one in here.
00:28:04
Lew
Shut up.
00:28:06
Holmesy
So are our favorite North boys back? So Sheezil moving back into defense on the weekend, zero CBAs, got going late in that game um and it actually coincided with North playing some better footy to almost beat Port.
00:28:19
Holmesy
And then Cherry looks back to his 110 plus ways and... Are they must-haves Essendon, Brisbane, Collingwood, Richmond all into their into their buy? So you think if Cherry gets on a bit of a run here, then he's going to be up well over a million, maybe 1.05 mil by his buy. And then you've missed the opportunity to get him cheap. I suppose that's why Lou got him this week. So we'll stick with you, Sam. Sheasel and Cherry, are they and they getting to must-have territory?
00:28:48
Sam
Yeah, look, I mean, um no one's a must-have in this game, but, you know, there's a few guys that you get really scared about in this game taking the competition away from you. And I think we can firmly put Cherry, Sheasel, you know, guys like Whitfield, Dacos into that basket.
00:29:05
Sam
And, yeah, let me look. Sheasel in this halfback role, we've seen him go 120 over stretches. Cherry, when he's up and running, can go 120, 130 stretches.
00:29:15
Sam
and um his His run, I mean, he's got Brisbane there. Oscar McInerney is sometimes a tough matchup. But, geez, I'd back him in against Goldstein. Darcy Cameron's playing well, but he's not necessarily too accountable. And then, you know, Richmond, Nankervis, everyone scores on him. So I do get nervous um about not owning these guys. I don't have either of them. And it's one of the reasons I was really thinking about going cherry last week.
00:29:42
Sam
And he had 23 touches on the weekend. He was actually low on tackles, um which is unusual for him. So if he gets a 20 disposal game and an eight tackle game together with 30 to 40 hit outs, man, oh man, is he going to take the game away from you quickly.
00:29:59
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, it's tough. I suppose, Lou, that's that's why you went there to try and get ahead of some of the coaches in that top sort of 500 to 100 that, you know, Terry wasn't very highly owned. he's He's up there now. I think he's about 50% or 60% owned in the the top 1,000. So coaches have either jumped or or now that his scores are starting to to be up there, some coaches are really making a move.
00:30:23
Holmesy
Sheez was the interesting one ah I want to talk about, Lou. So priced at 105, so he's still not super cheap. Do we think this role sticks? I mean, that's the that's the nervous part about owning Harry Sheezo is it's a quarter to quarter, week to week prospect of where he's playing.
00:30:38
Holmesy
No doubt if he's if he's just playing half back, he could be some serious value. But is it always going to be in the back of your mind that, you know, Clarko could throw him forward for a quarter? You know, Curtis is out or goes back into the midfield or are we just locking it away knowing that, yeah, he might not be value, but he's probably going to go at 105 for the year and be a top six defender with potential upside?
00:30:59
Lew
Yeah, well, the simple answer is probably that, you know, priced at 105. I think yeah that's paying a fair price with a bit of a chance of some upside there. But you're right about the role concern. It's been thrown around this year. And um the reason he was moved off that halfback flank in in the first place was because, you know, he was a little bit ineffectual in terms of scoreboard impact for the side um and, you know,
00:31:25
Lew
Now he's back there. ah I'm not sure it's going to stick.
00:31:28
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:31:29
Lew
um But that being said, if it does, we know that he can cruise at 125 quite comfortably off that halfback roll. So um i think he is player that we need a target um this week or next or you know as soon as you possibly can because he's going to be one that, yeah like Sam said, can get away from us with that um with that defensive status back there in the ceiling.
00:31:57
Holmesy
So let's let's stay with the defenders now. um i know I know I certainly am in the market for a defender upgrade this week as I've still been running the three rookies in defence. And it seems like a lot of coaches are trying to to shore up their defences. It's a little bit nervous each week playing Reid, Pryor, Treiner.
00:32:14
Holmesy
with what's going on. So let's talk let's talk through the top six first um as it stands right now. So Lockie Whitfield, kudos to those coaches that started. Lockie Whitfield priced at 112, going at 116.
00:32:26
Holmesy
He's been an unreal starting pick the way GWS are playing at the moment. And it's even worse now because they're out of form, but they're just chipping side to side. um And Lockie Whitfield and and Lockie Ash, which we'll get to, are just racking it up for fun.
00:32:40
Holmesy
I suppose, Lou, with with Whitfield, we're just hoping and praying that there's going to be a ah couple of lower scores so that we can maybe get him slightly cheaper at some point. But, yeah, we can't do it now, can we?
00:32:52
Lew
No, i ah think he's just going to be a luxury trade guy and maybe you know post the buy around 17 comes into the Eagles might be when everyone's got him on his lips. But until then, 1.16 is just a ridiculous amount of money to pay at this time of year. I think it might look good for a couple of weeks, but eventually that's going to come back to bite you and you're going to run out of a bit of cash.
00:33:17
Holmesy
Let's just hope that ah James Jordan remembers how to tag this week and he goes to Whitfield and he has ah a lower score and and who knows, maybe we might get two in a row and we can target him before the bye because he does have the round 16 bye, which if you're if you're looking for a premium upgrade over the next you know sort of three to four weeks, you want to be targeting those round 16 guys so you get the most ah games out of them. So,
00:33:40
Holmesy
Not yet on Lockie Whitfield, but he's someone that we all need at some stage. We touched on Sheezle, who's sitting at number two. Sam, I'll throw to you because you got into my DMs today and you said this bloke was seriously tempting you. So Dane Zorko, is he back?
00:33:55
Holmesy
Are we putting in too much stock into the St. Kilda matchup? He's priced at 103 now. We know what he can do in that halfback role. Has the Gold Coast, who he went 180 on last year. Is it time for Dane Zorko or do you think there's still a little bit of uncertainty in what he's putting up?
00:34:10
Sam
Yeah, i mean, you've described it perfectly there, Holmesy. You know, he had, what, three 70s in a row or something, you know, a poor output like that, and then pops a 120. We know the St Kilda matchup is juicy, but, yeah, he is a guy, he's another one of those few guys that can can really get on a roll and average, you know, 120, 130 for a few weeks.
00:34:32
Sam
The other thing that i um like about Zorko is he also has that round 16 buy, And, you know, i'm I'm tossing up at this stage whether to go him or sheasel this week. Those are some of my early trade thoughts. And I have to say the round 16 by opposed to round 12 by does nudge me towards him.
00:34:53
Sam
um the Other guys have popped up back there. You know, Wilmot has a bit more ownership. um Jasper Fletcher's rotated back there. Coleman is back could be back there soon as well. so you know maybe Maybe he does lose a few points and his earlier scoring in the season is, um or at least you know three weeks ago, is more reflective of that. But um yeah they still try and play a lot of footy through him and I don't think he's going to be a bad pick at 103. Getting him at 103, I think, represents some upsets.
00:35:23
Holmesy
Sam, I'll stick with you now because at number four, we've got Jack Sinclair. I know, Louis, you have him too. But what are you seeing, Sam, at the moment as a Jack Sinclair owner? Because let's let's be honest, he he's a top six defender at the moment. But outside of that ceiling game that you and Louis both got him in for, he hasn't exactly been shooting the lights out. So what are you seeing with Jack Sinclair?
00:35:42
Sam
Yeah, spot on. And I think it's um it's more of a ah reflection of where St Kilda are at. Like I watched that the St Kilda game closely on the weekend. And, um you know, Sinclair and Naz started, sorry, Naz Nazia started at the back.
00:35:55
Sam
um But then they both spent time in the midfield. And Sinclair, it was more of a pinch hit. I think he only had six or seven CBAs in the end. and whereas Nazai was kind of basically in there full time from about quarter time onwards.
00:36:08
Sam
um And it absolutely paid dividends for for the for owners who have got him. um He went really big. and But i just I just wonder the Magnus getting thrown around a bit there. um He did have a lot of kick-ins, but then suddenly, you know, Cal Wilkie was taking him towards the end of the game.
00:36:25
Sam
So i get a little bit nervous, but I think he's priced...
00:36:28
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:36:30
Sam
nicely as well, but I'd be keen to hear Lou thoughts as another owner.
00:36:34
Lew
Now, I agree with all those thoughts, but do do you remember um in the preseason, the Saints got touched up by Port and um at quarter time, they did the exact same thing. They threw the magnets around it and tried a bunch of different things. So it was interesting to see that.
00:36:50
Lew
um be applied at the senior level during the season and whether or not that's going to continue to be a trend. um His partner there, Nassai Wanganin-Milera, listening to the Ross Lyon press conference, which I recommend everybody listens to. He was in some fine form there.
00:37:07
Lew
um basically said that he really likes Nassai Wanganin-Milera in that midfield and that he's probably going to get a good go there. um So that could be something that coaches can sort of highlight.
00:37:21
Lew
Not sure if he's got the tank for it. I did notice that he did have 72% time on ground. I'm not sure if that's just a reflection of um of the new role or not. But yeah, I think both those Saints boys are are going to be good options moving forwards. I'll probably tip more towards Jack Sinclair though, I think.
00:37:43
Sam
Yeah, that's interesting, Lou. I hadn't listened to Ross's press conference. That actually gives me more confidence in Sinclair. If I know that Nazaira is moving into a midfield role, potentially full-time, then maybe get Sinclair gets more ownership of the you know the halfback piggery that goes on back there.
00:38:00
Sam
So that actually gives me some more confidence.
00:38:03
Lew
Yeah, it makes a lot of sense. I think um him going inside 50 is going to be really valuable for them. Obviously, they struggled on the weekend, and I think that's why he was pushed right up the ground so he could be amongst it a bit more and and push the Saints forward. So, yeah, it'll be interesting to see if that's something that that sticks moving forward.
Contenders, Pretenders, and Budget Shopping
00:38:21
Sam
Yeah, he was definitely one of the few guys that hit targets going inside 50 once he moved into the midfield.
00:38:27
Lew
Kicks goals too, yeah.
00:38:29
Sam
Hmm.
00:38:30
Holmesy
All right, Lou. So the last defender we have rounding out the top six is Lockie Ash. Now, we can't throw to Sam here because he's biased and he's going to be misleading the listeners here. But do we think Lockie Ash can keep this up and and be a top six defender? Or do you think there's going to be a bit of a regression to the mean and maybe he's fairly priced or he drops back a little bit?
00:38:52
Sam
Yep, absolutely. Just get him in. Let's move on to some of the others.
00:38:56
Lew
Yeah, it's it's a pretty tricky one because we haven't, I don't think we've ever seen two blokes sort of averaging um upwards of 105, both playing on those halfback flanks.
00:39:01
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:39:07
Lew
And um just looking at Lockie Ash's stats, he is just cleaning up on the marks. And there's no surprise there. When you watch him, he he just runs around doing what he likes.
00:39:18
Lew
I do have to question whether or not it's sustainable though. And giants probably aren't playing the best footy at the moment. I think they might be messing around with it a little bit too much back there. So, um, based on, you know, just honestly a vibe, I suppose, because so far, um, Lockie Ash is putting up stats to suggest that, you know, he should be talked about as a top six, um, defender, but I just don't know if it's real. And, um,
00:39:47
Lew
I'll put my hand up and say I'm wrong at the end of the year because I think I've buried my hand and my head in the sand um in regards to Luke Ryan for just about you know two or three seasons as well. And he continues to score well. So um yeah, I guess I'll say no. I don't think it's sustainable and I think there will be a drop off. But um good on the Lockie Ash owners. I think it's a massive advantage at the moment.
00:40:11
Holmesy
it It kind of reminds me, and and just from a ah purely scoring point of view, um the parallels, but last year when Jordan Clark and Luke Ryan had that patch. So I think if you look at the numbers for Freo last year, Clark was averaging 100 and Ryan was averaging over 100 pre-buy.
00:40:28
Holmesy
And that was when they kind of got that bake in the middle of the season and and Freo you know got that scrutiny for for chipping around and playing safe and and not playing the brand of footy that's successful these days. And if you look at their numbers post-buy, when Frio started playing a quicker brand, they dropped off pretty significantly. And I think potentially that's, that's what's going to happen with the Giants here. They're they're out of form. It's, it's not getting done. And admittedly, they played this way last year to a ah prelim and and, or semi-final and and should have really gone all the way, but something has to change at the Giants with the way they're playing at the moment. And I think that starts with a little bit more run and dash off the back line and,
00:41:06
Holmesy
and playing forward half footy loop.
00:41:09
Lew
It's interesting that he attended some CBAs on the weekend too. I don't know if that's maybe a hint at the beginning of a slight role shift there. it was you know a little bit later on in the game, but um that's something we just probably haven't seen realistically for, what, 18 months, two years. So, yeah, just to watch on that ah next week, I think.
00:41:30
Holmesy
Yeah, definitely one to watch. I think it was just a bit of desperation from from the GWS coaching staff. they i was listening to that on the way home. They'd they'd just gone, what, 40 minutes and only scored one point. They had to do something different and and that was Lockie Ashbert.
00:41:44
Holmesy
For the coaches that are, you know, maybe they don't have the cash to get all the way to the top at the moment and and they're looking to shop in ah a bit of a cheaper range, let's let's go through a bit of our contenders ah or pretenders before we get into the questions. So we're going to look at some of these cheaper guys and I just want to get some quick thoughts. I'll go to you first, Sam, because you wanted to bring this bloke in two weeks ago and that coincided with you killing him for me. But Max Holmes now, back-to-back stinkers, bit of a tag target, looks tired, priced at 94. Do you need to see that form turn around or you're happy to to take a punt and and potentially get him at the bottom?
00:42:19
Sam
Yes, tough one. um Look, the head says he's a contender. You know, he's got all he's got a great role, lots of CBAs. Look, he is attracting some attention. um and But I thought he would have been good enough to to to break the tag with his running power.
00:42:35
Sam
um But, you know, based on what we've seen at the moment, the heart says um pretender. And it's it is hard when he goes, you know, 130 one week and then 70 the next week.
00:42:46
Sam
um For now, I'm happy to watch and And I think with two bad scores in his system, he's going to get a bit cheaper. And I'll definitely be interested in a couple of weeks, I think.
00:42:57
Holmesy
Yeah, I think they've got a pretty tough run too. So high break, even if he drops maybe below 900K and you're looking to round out your defensive line with the cash that you have until you get to the buyers, I think he could potentially be a good target if he can turn his form around. He's too good to be dropping these 60s.
00:43:13
Holmesy
ah But yeah, it's it's a nervous watch at the moment. Lou, I didn't watch this game, but Josh Dacos, first ceiling game, now priced at 92. Do you think there's scope for him to... to push 100 and be close to the top six defenders? Or do you think just the Essendon matchup kind inflates that? He hadn't toned up to that point.
00:43:31
Lew
Yeah, no, I probably wouldn't go there. I think this is what Josh Dacos does. hes He's an outside player that has his big pop games and then he has his games where he's a little bit disappointing in terms of a fantasy score.
00:43:44
Lew
ah He got off the chain in the first quarter. It was 17 disposals or something ridiculous and ah That was tightened up pretty quickly. And that's probably why i don't love him as an option. I think for someone like Josh Dacos to get off the chain probably sets off the alarm bells for the oppo coaches just because he's so damaging with the football.
00:44:04
Lew
um So for me, I'd look at, you know, 2024 and the 2023 scoring of Josh Dacos. And that might give you, even though we averaged 95, it might give you a reflection of the roller coaster that you're about to buy a ticket for because, know,
00:44:18
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:44:18
Lew
He can go ton after ton after ton and then still drop you a 60. And look that's just, you know, what you're buying when you're buying and some of these outside wingman types.
00:44:29
Holmesy
Yeah, it does help though when your brother's almost the best midfielder in the game who's getting it 40 times a game and and always looking for his brother. But yeah, that's that is Josh Dacos. He's up, he's down a bit. I think he's going to be he's been a fine draft pick.
00:44:42
Holmesy
um He might have a little bit of value, but I think that sort of 95 is his absolute ceiling and in what he can average. So just because of the floor there, and and you're right, if if he's getting a lot of ball, teams are going to put some time into him, Sam.
00:44:52
Lew
And well oh I was just going to say, what is Dan Houston averaging? Yes, 70. So I don't think that's going to stay the same. So I think there could be a little bit of um lunch cutting there too.
00:45:07
Sam
um ah I might just play devil's advocate just in case there's any listeners that are interested in Josh Dacos. So obviously role change, he's gone from a wing to a halfback this year and he's averaged 95 as a wing. He just reminds me of like Nick Martin two years ago when he went 95 as a wing and the next year he went what 110 as a halfback.
00:45:28
Sam
I just wonder if he's figured it all out now and I mean, to score 119 as a halfback in a wet game, I have to say I wasn't expecting it from him. um ah I'm actually interested. I'm going to keep an eye out over the next week or two.
00:45:41
Sam
um And I can see myself trading into him with a, think he's also got around 16, Collingwood by.
00:45:42
Lew
yeah
00:45:47
Lew
The only caveat is, is he actually taking kick-ins consistently like a Nick Martin would have been?
00:45:55
Sam
oh God, without checking, i think with more
00:45:55
Lew
Let me just...
00:45:58
Sam
out. He probably took more in this week. So maybe that's, maybe that's the bump in the score that he had.
00:46:02
Lew
Yeah, no, he's probably getting enough. Looks like they're sharing it around between Jeremy Howe, Josh Dacos and Dan Houston there.
00:46:11
Sam
Yeah. Yeah.
00:46:13
Holmesy
Yeah, kick-ins. Where are we? Yeah, 2% for the season, I think. So it's not not very many. um All right, Sam, I'll stick with you. we'll We'll get through some of these and we'll get into the questions. So I'm going to lump these two together.
00:46:29
Holmesy
um Look, if we talk about teams that are playing fast football, I'm Melbourne are not one of those. They are clearly, it is their direction to play slow, chip it around in the back line. And Bowie and Salem are absolutely lapping it up at the moment. So Salem averaging 100, Bowie averaging 97, both priced at, I think, 92 and 90.
00:46:50
Holmesy
and It's always a very dirty thing to to pay up for a player when you know they were 250K cheaper to start the year. But do we see any of those two sustaining what they're doing? Bowie in particular has been incredibly consistent and then has gone bang over the last two weeks.
00:47:06
Sam
Yeah, look, I don't know on the Melbourne guys. that I find that that whole situation very interesting because obviously they were playing pretty poor football to start the year.
00:47:18
Sam
They've gone to this quite slow game style um and it actually seems to be working, albeit you know a smaller sample so smaller sample size. um bowie a bowie bowie Salem, May, Rivers, there's just a lot of guys back there. You know, you throw Lindsay into the mix who's scoring well off a a wing slash halfback.
00:47:39
Sam
I do query the number of points that can get shared around back there. But, yeah, look, Bowie, I think if you've got him, i know a few good coaches that do, I think you enjoy the ride.
00:47:50
Sam
Again, it's kind of like an ash pick. I'd be really stressed trading into him at this point. And same with Salem, who we know can can drop a stinker.
00:48:01
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that. Well done to the coaches that started Jake Bowie. It's been an unreal and almost a hat-winning pick or a car-winning pick. John Noble's another one, now priced at 92. He's got that clear distributor role at Gold Coast. However, I do worry with the two Darwin games coming up.
00:48:19
Holmesy
ah that there could be a couple of floor scores there. So for that reason, I'm a no on John Noble, but I know some other coaches are seriously looking at it and I'm not going to talk you out of it. The last one, Lou, that I want to talk about is Nick Martin. So you went in last week, so the week before, sorry, against the Eagles and he had the ceiling score, but now he's gone and done another 70, which we we assume that's what he's probably going to do throughout the year with that sort of half forward wing role.
00:48:46
Holmesy
Is he a top six forward priced at 99 or do you think we need to look elsewhere on a Nick Martin now that we've seen it again?
00:48:53
Lew
I think he's a top six forward. Yeah, I still believe in Nick Martin. It wasn't ideal conditions for him on the weekend. And I'm not convinced that he wasn't um a little bit injured as well. you know, his time on ground dropped to 85%. It's been, know, well into the high 100% the week previous.
00:49:12
Lew
And we saw a bit of strapping on his on his calf as well at training today. So I think he was probably carrying something. Hopefully it's just a niggle and he can go back to um scoring a little bit better. But I think if you were looking at trading him in this week, that would be enough for me to um to just look elsewhere.
00:49:32
Holmesy
Yeah, I think as good as his time on ground is, I think that's almost a flag in itself though, because he's such an anomaly to be able to put up those 95% time on grounds consistently. And eventually his body is going to break down a little bit and its it's going to regress back to the mean a little bit. So that's probably a little bit of a flag from my point of view. I think is he's going to have some ceiling games and beat up on the lower sides, but then he can potentially have some floor games where he's a little bit tired in some harder matchups. Sam, do you have something else you want to add?
Trade Strategies and Market Value
00:50:02
Sam
Yeah, I just thought what might be useful is, you know, I think a lot of people might be shopping for a defender this week. If you had to rank these, we'll put Nick Martin aside because he's a forward, a bit more expensive as well. If you had to rank these five guys, if someone was desperate for a defender and shopping in this sub-million dollar price range, where would you boys rank these five? Maybe give us give me maybe give me your top three that you prefer.
00:50:28
Lew
ah Max Holmes is is firing away number one of that group. um Josh Dacos, probably third. I think I would have Noble just above him um come end of season, maybe.
00:50:43
Sam
Harbsey?
00:50:44
Holmesy
Yeah, that's interesting. um I think I'd still go Max Holmes one as well. I think he's he's still class and he's going to turn it around, albeit he's had some two stinkers. I think I would probably go Josh Dacos 2.
00:50:58
Holmesy
And then I think I'm Bowie 3. um it's It's interesting. I just think if Melbourne are going to keep playing this way, i think he i think he's an option. um I've been burnt in the past looking at things and thinking it's going to change, it's going to change, but it just seems there's clear direction for Melbourne to play this way and I don't hate it.
00:51:17
Holmesy
Sam, do you have any other thoughts?
00:51:20
Sam
No, I'm probably pretty similar. I'm actually a little bit more bullish on Noble. um It sounds crazy because, you know, he's got a bit of stink around him from the last couple of years, but I probably have Holmes one as like yourselves, boys, and then and Noble two, and then Josh Dacos three, which actually may have been the same as Luya. But, yeah, I like Noble. And, you know, Darwin games are a flag, Holmesy.
00:51:43
Sam
ah But, you know, guys like Sexton and... um Oh, who else was it back there? Obviously, Flanders. They'd still scored in Darwin games. um
00:51:52
Lew
Joe Jeffrey puts on a show back there as well.
00:51:53
Sam
Joel Jeffrey, yeah. I mean, if he can chalk up 80...
00:51:56
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:51:59
Holmesy
he's just He's had the softest run though, right?
00:51:59
Sam
Noble, I'm...
00:52:01
Holmesy
He's had the softest run to start. you know Even on the weekend, and Sydney have been giving up some crazy numbers to the to the distributors down back. um the The tougher matchups are going to come.
00:52:13
Holmesy
Do Gold Coast slow down like they do every year? There's every chance. ah just yeah I'd feel nervous trading into Noble priced at 92. I think he probably ends up being that sort of 90 guy, which he's going to regress a little bit and and drops back. But...
00:52:29
Holmesy
I've definitely been wrong in the past. Boys, let's get on to the questions now. But just a reminder, in 2025, the PodPod has partnered with Q Platforms to help answer all of your AFL fantasy questions.
00:52:41
Holmesy
um So if you'd like to help out the PodPod for a small fee, you have the ability to have a personalized audio response from myself, Sam, Louie, or Harmi if you want to pick your podcaster.
00:52:53
Holmesy
um You can have full team reviews, questions on individual players, um trade questions, everything that you want asked. So if you head over to askmeonq.com forward slash podpotafl, the link is in the show description below.
00:53:06
Holmesy
um we are more than happy to answer all of your questions. Lou, the first one we have today is from Adam. Who is more of a priority to trade out, Stuart, Sanders, or a solid on-field rookie like Traynor or Lindsay?
00:53:22
Lew
I think Sanders with the Port matchup is where I'd be leaning. um Stewart is an interesting one because he may well be an out this week, but at the same time, I can't help but feel like if you trade him this week and he gets on a little bit of a run, and that he'll be the the coach the ah player that every coach is trading in in the next fortnight. So,
00:53:47
Lew
Yeah, I think I'm Sanders, but I'd be interested to know two boys' thoughts on this one because I think a lot of coaches are going to have similar questions.
00:53:58
Holmesy
Yeah, i think I think it's Sanders personally, myself as well. He's had that 50 that we all thought was coming. He had the 130 out of the box against St. Kilda, but no CBAs, half forward graveyard shift, has to play really well to get an 80 or a 90. Be thankful that he's he's he's had the 130 and then from there, just take your cash and run, lube it.
00:54:18
Holmesy
Just quickly, I digress. I'll just take you back to to round one. Can you remember when Tom Stewart was walking to the center bounce and you decided to fade him and you went into the group chat and you're like, what have I what have i done?
00:54:31
Sam
ah
00:54:33
Holmesy
Oh, what could have been? Lou, I know yet you're speechless. you've You've dodged a bullet.
00:54:39
Holmesy
But yeah, moving on.
00:54:40
Sam
ah so Those little moments.
00:54:41
Lew
to No, so just do we think, um do we think Stuart's cooked?
00:54:41
Sam
there
00:54:48
Holmesy
ah Yeah, I i personally, i think ah he's not cooked, but I think he's he's much more of a role player now. I think Lawson Humphries is playing some unbelievable footy off that halfback and you combine Zach Guthrie with having a career best year as well.
00:55:02
Sam
Mm-hmm.
00:55:05
Holmesy
You've got Baz Smith and Holmes that are always pushing hard to get back into defense.
00:55:09
Lew
Yeah.
00:55:09
Holmesy
He's just not he's just not needed now.
00:55:10
Lew
Yep.
00:55:11
Holmesy
He's is more than...
00:55:12
Lew
It feels like it's those two, doesn't it?
00:55:13
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:55:13
Lew
The Holmes and Baz just pushing into those, you know, little short 45 gaps.
00:55:14
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:55:20
Lew
it's It's them now and not Stu.
00:55:23
Holmesy
Yeah, he's just he's a role player. He locks down at times. He's been a bit injured, so he's not taking the intercepts that he used to. So I just i think yeah he's going to turn it around. I think he's better than the 74 that he's priced at.
00:55:35
Holmesy
um So you probably do have to hold to have him turn it around if he's if he plays. But yeah, ah he's he's not a top six. he's He probably can't even average more than 90 anymore with those players. So yeah, it's unfortunate for owners. Yeah.
00:55:49
Holmesy
But yeah, I think out of that, Sanders. But yeah, you do need to look to get off Stewart at some point. Sam, this one's from Fisher. Does he trade in Petrarca but have a read slash stone at D6?
00:56:00
Holmesy
Or does he trade in a defender for a similar price, like the the names we mentioned, to avoid the D6 rookie roulette and field Ashcroft? So yeah, interesting one to talk through. Talk us through that.
00:56:14
Sam
Yeah, so I mean, i I've been trying to actively avoid the three rookie defence. I've been keen to to trade them out. and ah But Reid is one that has surprised me, you know particularly in the wet the other day. I really was expecting him, and and you know the sicko in me was hoping that he would drop another 30 or something like that. um This is a tricky one. I'm thinking that in that range we just discussed that kind of sub 1 million range for defenders as we flagged, it's, it's tricky to shop in that area.
00:56:50
Sam
um ah know Louie isn't as big on Petrarca. i mean, I'm fairly confident that he's going to be a top six forward. And I think if he was listed as a forward to start the year at 900 K, have a feeling most people would, would have had him in his, in our side.
00:57:08
Sam
so ah My preference is to go with Petrarca there and field Reid at D6 just. um But it's a tricky one because i' I'm also kind of bullish on Holmes and Dacos and and feeling fielding Ashcroft.
00:57:25
Sam
So ah actually, no, you know what?
00:57:27
Lew
well just I was just going to say, pick the premium you like most and and let Rookie Roulette sort itself out.
00:57:28
Sam
I've switched. I'll say field Ashcroft and trade in 900K defender. look
00:57:38
Lew
ah I'm not going to try and predict Reid's score.
00:57:40
Sam
Yeah, it's a good way to look at it.
00:57:42
Lew
he He's a 90 any given week um sometimes. So for me, I'll just base that on the premium. And yeah, it's ah it's interesting, Petrarca. I might have to tuck my my tail between my legs and um and take a look at him. I'm a little bit concerned still. I think he had a massive third quarter within that score. But um yeah, priced at 92. The CBAs, are just they're just too hard to ignore.
00:58:09
Holmesy
I will say, i think for this question, I am very clear for this week to go Petrarca and play Zach Reid on field.
00:58:10
Sam
Yep.
00:58:17
Holmesy
The reason for that is Petrarca, I think, is a top six forward. Zach Reid outside of the 30 against the Eagles where none of the defenders scored has actually been very serviceable.
00:58:27
Holmesy
And I love the fact this week that Reid's playing on Thursday, which you'll know. Ashcroft this week doesn't play until the last game on Sunday. Now, Ashcroft to me is looking like he's getting a bit tired.
00:58:40
Holmesy
If they throw him a vest on Sunday, you have nowhere to go. And that that to me is a ah huge, huge concern. So I'm happy to play Reid at D6, which means you get Petrarca and lock away your forward line, Lou.
00:58:54
Lew
I think Ashcroft will be okay. He's got that eight-day break, but um yeah it's pretty tough to predict those sub-games. I will say, um basically on the same topic, are we fielding Zach Reid over Treanor? Because obviously Zach Reid plays on the Thursday night. um Treanor, the second-to-last game on the Sunday.
00:59:15
Sam
Yeah.
00:59:15
Lew
There might be a bad taste in some coaches' mouths from two weeks ago when he was named the sub unexpectedly with the inclusion of Noah Bolter, who will be playing this week. um Obviously, Foss will be playing Thursday. Bustling is playing Saturday. Stone plays an hour before you'll hear the subs.
00:59:33
Lew
Is it necessary to play um probably Zach Reid on field this week over a trainer?
00:59:40
Holmesy
Well, know Sam won't be because he's traded him out.
00:59:40
Sam
yeah
00:59:43
Holmesy
um ah I will be. Yep, I'll be playing Reid on Thursday night. I don't care. The North Melbourne matchup is not the worst. it's um Yeah, he could he could get it. He should he should be good for a 60 with the way he's playing at the moment. And yeah, um I just don't want a part of of waiting for the trainer sub or anything like that um as being burnt before. But I think Reid's a fine option. Sam, let's move on to the next one. So this one's from Nick Pyke.
01:00:09
Holmesy
He has 330K in the bank. He wants to know whether it's better to go Bergman plus a rookie to get in sort of two mid-prices in defense. So think of Luke Ryan and a Sicily or two similarly priced players, which would leave him four rookies on field.
01:00:24
Holmesy
Or does he bypass those value options and get up to a shiesel, but means he has to go a rookie down to do that, which is five rookies on field. So what option do you like better there for Nick?
01:00:35
Sam
Yeah, the classic conundrum. Oh, you know, Luke Ryan and Sicily, the problem for me there is they both feel like punts. um You know, you're having a crack at two players there rather than just taking a punt on one player kind of bouncing back.
01:00:52
Sam
um I think Luke Ryan is on the rise. Sicily, I have no idea, honestly. He could he could be locked into defence for the next five weeks and kill it, but... um I prefer, because we've talked about the value Sheasel presents, if you haven't got a buslinger, that's someone I'd be interested in picking up and going Bergman to Sheasel.
01:01:03
Holmesy
Thank you.
01:01:12
Sam
Five rookies on field is tough, though. Yeah,
01:01:17
Sam
yeah look, I mean, if you've got five rookies on field, maybe it is best to take a pun on Luke Ryan and Cicely. That's probably terrible advice. I probably couldn't do it myself.
01:01:25
Lew
Yeah, don't do that.
01:01:25
Sam
But, yeah.
01:01:26
Lew
Don't do that. You're just doubling Bergman if you're bringing in Luke Ryan and Cicely. And like you said, taking the punt.
01:01:32
Sam
Yeah, it's too risky, isn't it?
01:01:34
Lew
If you've got five rookies on field, you've probably got a few selections off the bench too. I'd almost, um if you don't have a loop, I'd almost look to bring in a red dot and um sort of maximize my scoring in terms of those five rookies. So you might be able to loop across um two, potentially even three lines if you're feeling...
01:01:54
Lew
Super crazy. I'd bank the premium every day of the week and and then play the loop game, I think.
Suspensions and Player Performance Impact
01:02:00
Sam
Yeah.
01:02:00
Holmesy
Yep, agree there. I'm getting sheasel if I can. Lou, this one's from Dave. Is Chad Warner a viable play? So priced at 87. Seasonal CBA average of 56% but bumped up to 78% on the weekend.
01:02:15
Holmesy
Seems like he's getting going in that midfield now that he's signed. Clearly underpriced. We've seen him go mid-90s before, which would get the job done probably as a top six forward. Chad Warner, can we do it?
01:02:27
Lew
No, I don't think you can. I'm not convinced he can um go north of 25 touches every week consistently enough. is He's clearly a massive threat forward off the footy. um But no, I think you go you do get these scores with Chad Warner and then he can pop a 50 the next week just because he is so dangerous and and Oppo do put a lot of attention into him. So no, I think um i think you just leave Chad Warner be. He's not necessarily too discounted either.
01:02:57
Holmesy
Yeah, I think if he if he shows more, then he's still going to be valuing a couple of weeks' time. um And you can look to do that a little bit later on. Sam, this one's from Marcus.
01:03:05
Lew
You've got Mills on the horizon too. We're not sure where he's going to play. That might you know affect things.
01:03:10
Holmesy
Yep, fantastic point, Luke.
01:03:11
Sam
Well, the other thing is none of these none of these Sydney midfielders are scoring well at the moment. Heaney, Rowbottom, Chad up until this week, they're all down on their output. um I mean, the Swans are clearly out of form.
01:03:24
Sam
Chad had a great role last year and he averaged, what was it, 95 maybe, 96. So I think that's probably where he's going to get back to.
01:03:30
Lew
Mm-hmm.
01:03:33
Sam
I don't see him being as guy. ah hundred plus go
01:03:36
Lew
Keep an eye on the Swans' mids, though, because it's a good point you make, Sam. They've all been pretty down so far, and um Heaney probably the most relevant of them all.
01:03:42
Sam
Oh, Heaney is so cheap.
01:03:44
Lew
So, yeah, he got off to a 47-point first quarter, um and then I think he got a bit of attention and then picked up a little injury later on.
01:03:45
Sam
Yeah.
01:03:53
Lew
Yeah. After the potential tag against Bedford this week, and mind you, Warner might get it too, so he's probably not a great target this week, then we can maybe look at either of those two players.
01:04:02
Sam
Yeah.
01:04:09
Holmesy
Sam, this one's from Marcus. What do I do if I have both Chera and amon
01:04:16
Sam
ah It's good you've asked me because I've got them both in my draft team as well. So I'd be keen to hear what Marcus is going to do. um In all seriousness, ah look, I pray that Cherry gets off.
01:04:27
Sam
um If he doesn't,
01:04:31
Sam
it's hard holding two premiums or premiums in inverted corners. um But there are also one weekers, I think. If you've got big issues to fix in your team, you know, try and get a rookie off field, I'd be doing that and just trying to hold for a week and maybe you can loop a rookie on field for a 70 or something and and then, you know, you're you kind of ahead of the curve, so to speak, next week when you get both of them back. there The general rule of thumb is hold your premiums through unweakers.
01:05:01
Lew
What if you went, chair it along and aim on to Sheezle?
01:05:01
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I'd...
01:05:05
Lew
Is that mad?
01:05:07
Sam
That's probably pretty good, actually.
01:05:11
Holmesy
Yeah, i'd I'd definitely look at that. I mean, the awkward thing is that um if you were looking to play the looping game with Amon, if you wanted Sheezwalu, that's in the Thursday night and you wouldn't give a chance to loop one of your Zach Reid or Pryor or whoever it is for a potential ceiling score.
01:05:26
Holmesy
I think out of the two, you you hold Chera and you trade Amon just because we never know how players are going to come back from concussion. um But yeah, it's unfortunate, the the concussion there.
01:05:39
Holmesy
Marcus, Lou, this one is from Ninjas Boone. No, sorry. We've already spoken about Stewart as being a target. We're going to avoid him at the moment. Chris, can you boys please tick off a Sarong to Ned Long and Sanders to Trak, which banks 263k. So talking about that Ned Long play going down from a Sarong and then Sanders to Petrarca.
01:06:02
Lew
you're a you're a free oh man homesy so i'll throw this one back to you clearly caleb sarong is is not getting it done from a fantasy perspective but he's playing fine footy within um that sort of game style change we're seeing from free do you see him turning it around in that system or or would you be cutting ties here because we we know what he's capable of
01:06:24
Holmesy
ah So I have a theory on this. um Watching Sorong and Brayshaw play a lot over the last couple of years, when they were both elite scorers together, they were both hunting the ball and getting a lot of these sort of cheap 45s that weren't really helping the team out too much. And there's been a very clear shift.
01:06:43
Holmesy
Sorong's not taking any marks. And yes, he's getting attention. So that plays into it. I think Caleb Sorong is that pure in-and-under player at the moment, and he's getting he's doing his job for the team. He's he's getting the clearances for playing some okay footy, and it's allowing Brayshaw and Young and these guys to do their thing. So ah don't think Sorong's a top-eight mid. he's He's unders for what he's going to do. I can't see him putting up 75s each week, but he's getting high 30s disposals and and barely ticking over 80, 90. So...
01:07:12
Holmesy
ah They've got a pretty tough run coming up. I know they've got GWS and Port, I think, in the next four. But I think you'd be crazy this week trading out of him in that St. Kilda matchup. So I wouldn't be doing it this week. I think you probably have to hold him to his buy at this point, hope he turns it around, and then maybe look to get off him at that
Closing Thoughts and Future Engagement
01:07:31
Holmesy
point. Sam, would you agree?
01:07:33
Sam
Yeah, I think hold and hope. um It's a really tough situation to be in. And I'll just add to that, you know, so I actually saw today, Sarong is about, he's fourth on the coach's votes ladder. Like, he's clearly playing good footy and everyone's rating the footy he's playing. So I can't see him taking a bunch of marks soon. I like the trade-in options, Ned Long and Track, but just, I wonder if you've got other things, you know, bigger issues to fix in your team.
01:07:59
Sam
So I'd be leaning towards... holding and hoping that he turns it around. He's a great player.
01:08:06
Holmesy
Sam, last one from Lockie. Hate it or rate it. So he's got two rooks and a war chest. They are going to become either number one, Long and Petrarca or Dylan Moore and Rivers.
01:08:17
Holmesy
So getting the value option in Long and the Petrarca top six or Dylan Moore and morn Rivers.
01:08:17
Sam
Yeah.
01:08:23
Sam
I was hoping you'd give me this one because this, I mean, maybe I'm missing something, but this seems just an obvious answer. Long and Petrarca are the The clearly better option here. Dylan Moore we haven't seen enough from.
01:08:35
Sam
He's going to turn it around at some point. And he had a few CBAs on the weekend. But man, oh man, has he been bad.
01:08:40
Holmesy
Thank you.
01:08:41
Sam
And and Rivers has popped a few scores since going back. But we touched on the Melbourne defenders earlier. There's so many guys back there. It's a week-to-week proposition as to as to who pops. So I definitely rate Long and Petrarca.
01:08:54
Sam
And I hate Moore and Rivers.
01:08:58
Holmesy
Yep, fair enough. And I'm pretty sure Lou would agree with that. Lads, let's wrap that up. We've gone for pretty much an hour and 10. Absolute bumper of an episode for the listeners. The boys, you two are flying, which is which is great to see. And fingers crossed over the next couple of weeks, you guys can push up towards that top 100. But Sam, we know it's hard to increase ranking from where you are. And we know you only come on the pod when you do increase your ranking. So we know we never know when we're going to see you next. So can you just give us some closing thoughts for the listeners of what you're excited for this week?
01:09:28
Sam
ah Yeah, sure. What am I excited for this week? I am excited to see what people do with Levi Ashcroft this week, actually, because, so I'm checking his ownership now. It is still at, sorry, 65%. I am thinking about trading him out, thinking that, you know, he's kind of reached maybe his peak, but I can also see coaches holding him for a lot longer.
01:09:55
Sam
um And I think Ashcroft, At this price, gives us a chance to get up to a genuine premium. So, yeah, I'm i'm excited to see what owners do with Ashcroft this week.
01:10:06
Holmesy
And Lou, I always like throwing to you. and um I'm excited as well for the comp to kind of diverge this week and and see some differentiation. But what are you looking forward to this round?
01:10:17
Lew
um Yeah, mate, honestly, I'm i'm just keen for the footy and just to see how it all lies, to be honest. There's nothing ah nothing that's jumping out at me. I'd like a Tristan Cherry big game, but no, I'm just keen to see how coaches go this week. As said, I think it's really going to um differentiate and I think the the ranks might be thrown around, so no, I'm keen for it
01:10:40
Holmesy
Yeah, sorry, Tristan Cherry going bid this week is not something I can get on board with, Lou. But to everyone else, make sure you are following us on Twitter at PodPodAFL. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your podcast.
01:10:55
Holmesy
And as always, we'll be back next week with another round review, hopefully with Harmi. But until then, we'll see you then.