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Player Positions Preview - FORWARDS feat the Warne Dawg #PODPOD
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The lads continue with their player position previews in AFL Fantasy this week with the forward line. So far in 2025 there has been a general consensus that our forward lines will be vanilla, with Smith, Daniel, Macrae and Phillipou all having greater than 50% ownership so early in the pre-season. Where there has been discussion is around structure and whether or not we are paying up and trying to find value in an F1, or whether we are looking to find some other value picks or rookies.
On this episode, Holmesy is joined by Harmey, Lewy and the Pod Father himself Warnie from The Traders as they discuss all things forwards. The 4 popular players are discussed as well as a stack of others that were requested by the listeners. As well as players, they have a general strategy discussion about structure and how things are looking moving into 2025. Enjoy!
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Transcript
Podcast Introduction and Co-hosts Overview
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod, it's Holmsey here talking all things AFL fantasy classic for you on this Monday 20th of January. We are continuing with our positional previews this week tackling the forward line, which are a little bit vanilla, but a little bit tricky at the same time. So I've assembled a pretty good co-host with me this week. We've got a good group. As always, I've got two time top 10 finisher and runner-up, John Harmy back on deck. Harmy, how was your week?
00:00:45
Jon Harmey
Hey, Holmes here. Yeah, good, mate. And I don't really know what to make of the forwards, but we'll see how we go today, because I think everyone's going to be pretty similar. Hey, we're just tinkering with a couple of spots probably.
Forward Line Strategy and Guest Introduction
00:00:56
Holmesy
Yeah, we're gonna get into it without with our strategy chat. Some of it is gonna be pretty similar, but I'm finding that a few of the positions are still very much up for grabs. But we will get to that and back on deck for what, the first time in 2025, Louis, how are you, mate?
00:01:12
Lew
Yeah, I think so, mate. Good to be here. Keen to talk about some of the forwards. We've definitely been spoiled for choice this season, which is nice. I think there's it's probably a five or six right off the um rank that people are pretty interested in. So we'll definitely be ah diving into those and then pick up on a few little niche and pod picks throughout, I think.
00:01:33
Holmesy
Yeah, mate, really, really good to have you back. And we do have another special guest. we've ah We're continuing with the big guest. We've got the pod father himself, or is it Bonnie Blue's stepbrother that you self-proclaimed the other day? I'm not too sure, Warndog, but how are you?
00:01:48
Warnie
I was wanting to see who liked that one, to see who else is a dirty boy that's probably seen a stepsister pop up in their feet somewhere. But anyway, yes, good to be here. I'm looking forward to chatting about these forward lines. It's interesting because you've got plenty of locks, I guess, or all the consensus picks at the moment. But I think that, um you know, there might be a couple of players that do mix things up and we're going to have to make some decisions of who they're going to be.
Player Performances and Injury Impacts
00:02:15
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it it does seem this way at the moment that they're they're quite obvious, but every year there's these obvious picks that don't work out. I know a lot of us last year were saying that Zach Williams was the slam dunk bit pick because of what he's done in the past and and that didn't work out. So they are they do seem obvious at this point in time. but What's not to say that Baz Smith just doesn't play the Geelong brand of football and play 75% time on ground in a whole number of different positions or Matthias Philippou, you know, he's had a four game sample size and who knows what it's like over a full season. So it is interesting to talk about and I am looking forward to it. But before we get into that warning, traders are in full swing at the moment with their with their club previews. What can we expect from you guys moving forward into 2025?
00:02:59
Warnie
Yeah, well, we're back on the tools pretty much the start of December each year now.
00:03:01
Holmesy
and
00:03:03
Warnie
So we get into it. We get it all happening. I think the game yeah pretty consistently opens up just in that week before Christmas. And yeah, people are getting into it. Plenty of people have signed up already, which is great.
00:03:14
Warnie
um I wish we sometimes had that. little gentleman's agreement, let's all just ah launch at the start of February, no one produces any content or whatever, and we can hit the ground running then, but it's, ah yeah, we've done a fair bit so far. At the moment, we've got our heads right into the AFL record stuff, so we've filed a fair chunk of that, and that'll go to the printers next week, and then we'll all be able to go and look at that and hope that we don't have too many yeah injuries that might come through. We had our Nick Newman last week, and we had to do a couple little edits for that one.
00:03:45
Holmesy
Yeah, that is a very good segue to lead us into our hot topics warning. So straight off the bat, Nick Newman. um Steve Fizz, if you're listening, maybe just turn it down for a little bit. ah I know you don't want us talking about old Nick, but Hami, what can you see as the sort of flow on effect from this Nick Newman injury? Now, it's not it's not a good injury out for the year with this this knee injury, but my initial thought was that the the easy option is for Doc to go back, but listening to or reading some track watches today they were saying that during the the match sim training he was still on that wing uh midfield half forward rotation so they haven't swung him back yet but what are you thinking with this Nick Newman injury as it stands right now?
Speculations on Player Roles and Team Dynamics
00:04:26
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I haven't seen that um track report, Holmesy, but lo I look at it and I just think it's got to be Doc. He's the one with all the experience. he He's spent years as the number one defender for Carlton. You trust him with the kicking every day of the week. so I just feel as though it really should be him. and But I guess time will tell and we'll see a bit more in those practice matches. And I think he's priced at around ah we mid 70s, isn't he? 74, 73, something like that. So that really throws him back into contention. um Shame he's a mid price and not a defender for our fantasy sides. But ah yeah I do feel as though it it should be Doc. and um And even if it's not Doc and it's somebody else that goes back, perhaps he still gets a bump anyway.
00:05:13
Holmesy
Lee, I'll throw to you. There's been a bit of buzz around Ollie Hollins moving to the half back line. Is he someone that you can see as a potential scorer? Mid-only meaning that there's probably a higher bar for him. I think he's priced in the low 60s.
00:05:26
Holmesy
What are you thinking with an Ollie Hollins? Does he have enough of a score bump?
00:05:28
Lew
all Potentially, like he he showed that he's got the chops towards the end of last year, but and he's coming in with that inflated price now. and He's going to be a tough one that you can take a punt on going into that round one, I think. um so He's one that I think you keep an eye on, potentially gets the role. I tend to side with Hami here that Doc's probably the main man and that I'd be identifying. but ah Just a little thought, is is Zach Williams, is he just permanent forward now?
00:05:58
Lew
Is there any chance that our man there gets swung back and becomes fantasy relevant a year later?
00:06:00
Jon Harmey
No, not again.
00:06:05
Holmesy
Alright, are we all ready to be heard again? ah Let's get Roy to pump him up and we'll all be on board, I suppose.
00:06:08
Lew
We could be heard again, but I'm looking at some of these names that could replace him. You know, ah Haynes is a bit more of an interceptor marking type. McGovern's the same. Sards you run in Dash. Akers, he's more up on a wing anyway, a bit like Holland. So there's a spot for him. So maybe we'll just keep an eye on that.
00:06:30
Holmesy
Yeah, it's it's interesting to see how it plays out. I think the obvious answer is Doc, but they've also shown that they've wanted to move away from him in defence, but ah definitely keen to see how that plays out during the pre-season. And warning, the other cult injury was ah a Sam Walsh hamstring, so this bloke just doesn't like having a full pre-season. Does that rule you out, rule him out as a starting pick for you? Or if you can get into the practice games and and play around there that you should still be in consideration.
00:06:58
Warnie
I think it can still be in consideration. um I guess my ears, but well, as soon as the fixture came out, I see they didn't have that early by, made him a bit of an option there. But yeah, I think we we have enough other guys that we can go for. It's not like he's ridiculously cheap or anything like that. So um if you were paying up, you might feel a little bit more safety elsewhere, Hami.
00:07:18
Jon Harmey
Remember last season, he had that back injury. I don't think he did any of the pre-season. We're like, oh, how's he gonna go? Comes in in round ah five with 145 to start the season.
Key Players and Fantasy Value Analysis
00:07:30
Jon Harmey
So, donnna don't know if it'll hurt him or not.
00:07:32
Warnie
he does that He does that like first month and then just falls away though. And it is a bit of a drop off with what he does. um But yeah, what is, I think the stat came out during the week that basically he hasn't played an opening round game, the first game of the season since like 2021 or something like that.
00:07:48
Holmesy
Yeah, right. Look, he's he's still someone that needs to be looked at. I think he would have done the a lot of running up until this point.
00:07:51
Warnie
Yeah.
00:07:54
Holmesy
And although it's a bit of a setback, it's not a serious, serious injury. So keen to keen to watch Dylan with Colton having Richmond in opening round. I don't think we can really rule too many Colton players out at this stage anyway.
00:08:07
Holmesy
All right, let's get into our forward line chat now. So strategy to open up. The general consensus is that we have four players, at least at this point in time, that the fantasy community is gonna gonna pick. So we've got the four, we've got McRae, who's 54% owned currently.
00:08:26
Holmesy
You've then got Matthias Philippou, who's 49% owned, Caleb Daniel, who's 61% owned, and then you've got Bailey Smith, who is 69% owned. So four players that are very highly owned, even at this point in the preseason, so there's still plenty of time to play out Hami. We're going to quickly go over these players, but can you see a world where you might not start one of these four?
00:08:52
Jon Harmey
um Well, I probably have to look at them individually, but look, the only one that I mean, unless Geelong decided they're going to ease in Smith, but it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case. Daniel, if Daniel doesn't have a halfback role, maybe question will, but he's so cheap anyway. I'd be looking less as an injury. I really do feel as though most of the comp is going to be starting those four guys.
00:09:19
Holmesy
Louis, why don't you start us with Caleb Daniel? What's got you so interested about a bloke that was on the outer at the Bulldogs and now all of a sudden such a sure thing at North Melbourne?
00:09:28
Lew
Yeah well this is one of the blokes that I actually selected so a bit of low hanging fruit there in Caleb Daniel but ah there's no surprises he's relevant. Priced at 50 of 61% of the comp already own him. We've seen what Caleb Daniels been able to do over previous seasons playing in defense.
00:09:46
Lew
For the dogs, he's gone 90, 87 and 87 previous to 2023. So obviously had that halfback role then. It was very fruitful. We had a couple of people there that he was sharing it around with too. So it wasn't like he was the number one guy back there.
00:10:02
Lew
um like we've seen in years past from some other teams, like North Melbourne, which is where he's actually gone. So, so far he's been pigeonholed into that half-back role. Everything we've heard out of the preseason is that's where they want him to play. um Previous players we've seen at the Roos score well across that line include Hall, Zebel, McDonald, Schiezel, Fisher,
00:10:24
Lew
And just about anybody that goes back there really we've even seen some of the yeah the rookie kangaroos get back there and and Find a bit of pill. So I think Caleb Daniel when you were talking 50 here So, you know if he goes at 80 or even 75, it's a great pick and this is a guy that I personally I think in that role can push 95 plus relatively comfortable so comfortably so Caleb Daniel I think is ah just about my first picked in the forward line this season he's one that I even though there's a popular four there that like you said we probably won't go against I think Caleb Daniel is the one with the least amount of um sort of bullet holes that you can put in him
00:11:04
Holmesy
Yeah, and the the thing about North is that they haven't been afraid for partners to do it in defense as well. Like typically you don't see two really high averaging defenders in a team like Whitfield going stupid big. There's no one at GWS that was close and Azorko with Brisbane, but they've had the Hall and Zebel combo. They've had the Shezel Fisher combo that they just score back there. And unless there's a big change in their game plan, I can't see that changing too much. So yeah.
00:11:32
Holmesy
Louie, that's a great pick. Warning, why don't you talk us through Bailey Smith and why he's ah a slam dunk pick for us.
00:11:37
Warnie
Yeah, well, he's the most selected player in the game at the moment and um pretty good reason. He's got, you talk about the 50 average or the price that next to um Caleb Daniels name. Well, he's got a 58 and this is a guy that has gone at over a hundred before. I think his PB season was back in, what was it, 2022 when he went at the 106. So it's sort of a, it's a nice number to be looking at to think that that could be a ceiling for for an average. He did it in 17 games because I guess that's been a little bit of an issue for him and we'll mention some of those to if you want to pick some holes there. But being priced at 58 and it's a little bit like the Caleb Daniel one, what does he even need to do to to be a tick of a pig, let alone um someone that will be up there. And if we look at um last year's averages and stuff like if he's going 90, well he's
00:12:29
Warnie
um f one basically that's the thing so I think that's ah where we are because you comfortably and we're probably all in doing some draft rankings at the moment and we've probably all got him ahead of Dylan Moore like he's someone that obviously is a gun and he did pretty well last year with that 92 and you feel like that's a fairly safe thing. but I'm feeling like, um regardless of role, it should be all right, because that sort of year after that 1.06, he had that really weird interrupted sort of year, went at 83. And so, again, if you're looking at those numbers there, the 58, if your average average is 83, we're all going to be thinking that's still a win of a selection at that sort of price. So, um yeah, he had that, that was where it was inside and outside, be but he was bevowed, as we like to talk about.
00:13:14
Warnie
that's where he had that sort of drug issue. You might even remember he headbutted. Was it Zach Tooey that he did?
00:13:18
Holmesy
Is it a headbutt?
00:13:19
Warnie
Yeah, there was that.
00:13:19
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:13:19
Warnie
Just had all those little things go and and his head, andm like not going to not making any light of any mental health stuff, but his head just wasn't really there in the game. And I think that's um that's something that you can see if he still managed to do 83 that season with a lot of things going against him, um that could be that little bit of a flaw if things are going right.
00:13:39
Warnie
And then I guess we're moving forward to this year is He's had 12 months off that ACL. That happened in December, so he's well over 12 months past that. um He's had a modified pre-season, as any player would, especially going to a new club. I think that's part of it as well. But um he's going to be ticking the boxes of what he needs to do now. He's talked up that he's an inside midfielder. That's what Danger's come out and said and that type of stuff. and If that's the case, then that, you know, that hundred plus is a reality. Like that could be a thing that happens
Player Pricing and Expectations
00:14:09
Warnie
this year. So while Daniel is a little bit cheaper and all that sort of stuff and feels like your number one pick, that's hard to, I don't reckon there's much gap between him and Caleb. Daniel is like a really easy startup pick.
00:14:22
Holmesy
Yeah, look, he's he's in my team. I'll be picking him. I suppose the only holes that you can pick are he's got that early buy in round three, which is the tricky one. So you're gonna have to juggle that with the other players in your squad.
00:14:33
Holmesy
and And maybe there's an element of the Geelong system. I think, what, Max Holmes was the highest averaging player at 95 and then it all dropped away to 80s and below.
00:14:39
Warnie
yeah
00:14:43
Holmesy
So it's maybe it's system-based and they talk him up as an inside mid, but the inside mids don't score that well at Geelong. but from a 58 price point, he doesn't need to he doesn't even need to go above 90 to be a smash pick, but he has the potential to go above 100.
00:14:54
Warnie
Hopefully, yeah.
00:15:00
Warnie
I think hopefully what we see now that it might be a bit more stability in that midfield. And that's probably a big part of it for the cats is what we've seen. The sort of things haven't worked like Danger was still getting a heap, but I can't see that he's going to have that same sort of consistent role moving forward. And they're going to build this around. Bazelinka now, I think.
00:15:19
Lew
the The role should be pretty um set in stone too. Cause I don't know if you guys saw the article a couple of weeks ago and it basically just went over some track notes and said, Oh, Bailey Smith's been spending some time across half back. And then in the next sentence, pretty much drops her hasn't been hitting many targets though. so Even the journalist didn't have much confidence in him there. So hopefully full-time mid for that Smith.
00:15:43
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:15:44
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, definitely locking him in for now. Louis, back to you before we get on to some of these other more speculative picks. So Mathias Philippou, you want to want to chat to us about him, this young gun from St Kilda.
00:15:57
Lew
Yeah, so he's probably the um the coach the player that every single coach circled at the end of last year and um we know how good his junior pedigree was. I think he was one that pretty much every single fantasy coach wanted a piece of when he came in his debut year.
00:16:13
Lew
It was something ridiculous, warning like 1.30 in the in the sandfall or something like that juniors.
00:16:16
Warnie
Mm.
00:16:20
Lew
um but He had a bit of an interesting 2023. He was stuck forward pretty much to begin the season and didn't really do much there to impress and and was eventually dropped to the VFL for a bit of form ah before returning in round 17. Dropped to 117 on our heads and everybody sort of had a look at that. oh What's going on here and then the next week 63% CBAs backing it up with a 93. So He clearly can score when he's in that midfield.
00:16:49
Lew
He got injured again. Unfortunately, round 21 comes back for a 96 or 57% CBAs. So when we talk about the Saints, when we think about the midfield, if we ask, if we ask Holmsey here, there's only one midfielder at St Kilda and it's Jack Steele.
00:17:05
Lew
I suspect Jack McCray and Matthias Philippou will be fine.
00:17:07
Holmesy
No, Rowan Marsh, Rowan Marshall as well.
00:17:10
Lew
Well I so i ah suspect Jack McRae and Mateus Philippou will be following him in there. He'd be only about 21-22 so I know people hate that natural improvement but you'd have to expect it to be there with a young fellow like that who's shown he's got it and it's going to get a more prominent role. um All reports out of the preseason is that's the role it's going to play in fact.
00:17:30
Lew
apparently lit up the track today a bit too in that role so 50% owned Mateus Philippu which is surprises me a little bit so it's nice to see that everybody's getting around him it minimizes the risk there which I do think compared to some of these other guys in this four that we're talking about um Mateus Philippu probably does present that little bit of risk but at the ownership um I think you're laughing there
00:17:54
Holmesy
Warning, I did like Roy's comment on the club preview the other day where he said, Philippines, the type of bloke that I will launch into 100% without a second thought. And then four or five weeks into the season, I'll think to myself, man, I should have thought about that. Can you, can you poke any holes in a Mateus Philippu at the moment?
00:18:13
Warnie
I guess for me, it's a little bit of change in what's new at the um at the Saints. Look, that's going to be a little bit of thing. You've got McRae, which we'll probably talk about, I reckon, coming up as well. But they've got a little bit of a change there. It's just all those things add up, though. And that's probably the biggest thing. It might be what is the the full upside, though? Like he's not exactly he's not pricing the 50s like we talked about with Daniel and um and Bailey Smith but it's cheap enough that he just goes you know he puts on 15 plus without sort of thinking too much with what you just saw at the like at the end of um the season and if that is what it's looking like I think that it just does make it easy but Roy's point there like it is a good one and and I think um
00:18:57
Warnie
I guess the the beauty is, is that you've got the safety in numbers if something did go wrong.
Jack McRae's Move to St Kilda: Impact and Trust Issues
00:19:03
Warnie
But I just don't really see um that if something did go wrong, we can all make some decisions on that. And that could be where where it does get interesting in the forward line with stuff, because we'll all do it. And then if things don't look right, there's going to be a few people and I'm a stubborn old man as probably all of us here are a little bit because we've been playing this game for a long time is that we probably wouldn't jump off and um that's something that is going to be an interesting part of how the Ford lines will work this year in general I think.
00:19:31
Lew
It feels like the blueprint's been there before in years previous too. Like I think back to a James Warple when he was about that 400K range. Andrew Brayshaw was the same. Will Brody a couple years ago. Bailey Smith, who we spoke about earlier before. These were all young players that just finally had that opportunity to get into the midfield and hopefully he can follow in their footsteps.
00:19:53
Jon Harmey
think um the thing about it is he's got a role change, right? So he's going into the midfield exactly what we want. So great role and great team, like um no early bye, good bye round. You can help hold him to that quite clearly. And if he doesn't ah work out to be the picky thought he was, there's opportunity to jump off then. So I just think that it's going to work out really well. But Warren, I do have a question for you.
00:20:18
Jon Harmey
I remember ah the bombers were tossing it between Elijah Sardis and Phillipo and they could make up their mind in India and they went with Sardis and and um so and something in the media, it was like he sent Brad Scott a message, something like, oh, I hope Elijah is a great player. for So I remember that.
00:20:37
Warnie
do remember that. And that's interesting because I guess so yeah you do get your back up a little bit about um decisions that are made, but she's at the moment. It's um it's looking like the po could be the one um at the minute.
00:20:48
Warnie
But what if we ruined him, no harmi? Like, is that the thing with our midfield and rotations that he would have had?
00:20:50
Jon Harmey
Yes.
00:20:54
Jon Harmey
Ford thanking the VFL for...
00:20:54
Lew
but
00:20:55
Warnie
yeah and that's what he's gonna have to do but yeah that is exciting pick there and i think the thing about the saints too is that last year they what were they they ended up being the um the fourth highest scoring fantasy team and and um fifth against as well which is always nice too because they just didn't really care which feels like it's a really weird thing for a roslion type system but anyway that's what it is
00:21:17
Holmesy
army me I'm going to give the stats of this guy first and then I'll throw to you because this bloke has destroyed mine and your seasons over the last two years. But it looks like we're all going back to the well. So Jack McRae, who I'm talking about, priced at 71 after being bevelled last year, has moved across to St Kilda.
00:21:36
Holmesy
But in 2023, so not last year, but the year prior, in non sub-affected games, he still averaged over 103 when he had more than 50% CBAs. And that was when he was getting thrown all over the shot. And it did drop a little bit to 93 of an average when he had 40% CBAs, but that's still value on his 71.
00:21:56
Holmesy
but surely he is the main man alongside Steele and Filippo which you would assume would at a minimum would be a 55 to 65% CBA split which should mean we're seeing not the Jack McRae of old back across above 110 but you would think at a minimum is ah he's a 95 guy with potential to go 105 so are there any holes we can poke in a Jack McRae?
00:22:20
Jon Harmey
na No, how no holes, nope.
00:22:22
Warnie
Hahaha.
00:22:23
Jon Harmey
He's just, he's just that, he's the ex-girlfriend that you keep going back to, Holmes. I just, um I'm just sucked into it. um And, you know, like they go to the draft, didn't need to pick up any midfielder because they got a gun.
00:22:36
Jon Harmey
An all Australian midfielder, a premiership player, a midfield jet. and I don't know what the Bulldogs were thinking there, letting him walk out the door.
00:22:47
Holmesy
Louis, Jack McRae, you've always been of the opposite opinion of of men me and Hammy, hence not going in and and ruining your season like we have. But Jack McRae, you're on board and you're happy to take the punt with us all.
00:23:00
Lew
Yeah, I'm on board. I ah can't remember if I started him last year. I suppose I probably would have. I do like Jack McCray as a player. I think he's got the fantasy game. It just didn't come to fruition towards the end at the dogs there, but may he's gone to the Saints. Like we look at some of these players that have arrived there the last couple of years and they've all pretty much skyrocketed. So Jack McCray, I think he can return to his 100 sort of best, 100 plus best.
00:23:30
Jon Harmey
Who's, um who do you reckon is going to start in the midfield there for the Saints? Zach Jones or Jack McRae?
00:23:36
Lew
but Jack Macrae, he'll be the first picked behind um probably Jack Steele and then I do understand your joke, Hami, but a Marshall and then Philippu, wouldn't it?
00:23:49
Holmesy
Louis, you missed the opportunity to say Hugo Garcia after Hami's pick in our draft in December.
00:23:49
Lew
Those four?
00:23:55
Lew
No, I said I understood the joke. I just wasn't going to give it any air time whatsoever.
00:23:57
Jon Harmey
See you on the list, Holmsey.
00:24:00
Holmesy
my
00:24:01
Jon Harmey
Stay on this list.
00:24:02
Holmesy
It's a veto, Hami. He was in the B side today.
00:24:04
Lew
I vetoed Midpod.
00:24:07
Jon Harmey
I'll have to add him in.
00:24:07
Holmesy
um All right, so. four Four players in the forward line that most of the comp is picking so far. So we've got four players. Now, warning, the question is, is a Jack McRae going to be our F1 or are we looking for an F1 player that is priced ahead of Jack McRae as a fifth option and only running running one rookie? What are you thinking structure-wise at this point in time?
Fantasy Team Structures and Player Evaluations
00:24:33
Warnie
I think a lot of people um have this question and probably had off the top like trying to find that F1 to make McRae F2 like and I think this is the better way to frame it is McRae your F1 or you're trying to find someone else there and I guess at the moment if you're looking at popularity um it has to be Horned Francis who people have gone with so he's in those top six players that have been selected and he was sort of the guy that um I was thinking to talk about not necessarily I think in my initial team, he was sort of there and um full disclosure, I don't really have a yeah ah team that I call a team.
00:25:05
Warnie
probably My head's been too much in content and um again, that gentleman's agreement. If we could all do this stuff in ah February when we see some prackey matches and all that sort of stuff and even, I think Louis was hot on it last year too.
00:25:17
Warnie
Let's not even look at anything until after opening round like he can just do the whole pre-season then. But the thing is, I think he's um someone
00:25:23
Holmesy
That's easy for you to say warning with your 50,000 listeners, mate. We're just trying to crack 1,000
00:25:30
Warnie
I wish we were getting 50,000. We've got a bit of a bonus structure about getting more people playing fantasy. So can everyone just sign up their partners and all that sort of stuff as well? That'd be good.
00:25:41
Warnie
but And then yeah we could have a few.
00:25:42
Lew
Ashley's mom is 24.
00:25:45
Warnie
Imagine that. Imagine Holmes's heroines winning it next year. That would be great. ah So anyway, we've got, let's talk about Horned Francis. So yeah, what is it? He's nearly 40% owned sort of thing. And I think that the key thing with it is that this is one of those ones where you're going, will he be a top six forward? And this might be that sort of old school thinking a little bit going, yep, you can always start with a guy that's gonna be up there. I think the thing that I like about him, and this is trying to find some things that are good, is that that sub 90, the 89 that he's at,
00:26:19
Warnie
can that be better and i think it can be and i think that he can be someone that is going to be one of those guys that is that mid-90s career average type guy um the issue is it's the ceiling so i don't think he can be totally burned by not starting him so if he does have you know one of his good mid-90 seasons but then again the thing that I like about him on some of that is that if he's going to be one of those top sixes you can lock that away you can have that sitting there um and especially to looking at their fixture and looking at their scale of hardness as a
00:26:52
Warnie
Calvin loves to promote as much as he can there. They look all right to start the season. So um they've got some, a couple of nice games there, a few greens sort of floating around early on. So that's um as midfielders now, I guess that's the next question of him. He's basically a 50% CBA type guy. And that's what he looks like.
00:27:13
Warnie
It doesn't matter too much what he does. So like I try to dive into some numbers there that, you know, what if he does these many CBA's or whatever, he just scores the same. Well, when I say scores the same, he has a bloody very low floor and Louis might be able to tell us a little bit about that at some point being there.
00:27:31
Warnie
being the port man looking at him nice and closely, but that's that's probably um the the hole there, that he does have a massively low floor, ah but they've got a nice start to the season, and he'd be a hard one that you'd buy into, I think, if he does have that 100 run to start the season afterwards. and It's a little bit like the, um I think I fought against, well, I did fight against Dylan Moore the whole season.
00:27:55
Warnie
Like I just wasn't a believer and he would have been a nice player just to to roll with and be a consistent guy later on. But if Horned Francis started off with hundreds and then has a couple of tougher match-ups coming up, I'd find it really hard to buy into him as that sort of upgrade later on.
00:28:12
Warnie
Army.
00:28:12
Jon Harmey
His price isn't really going to spike, though, is it? Like, say he comes out with 300s.
00:28:15
Warnie
No.
00:28:16
Jon Harmey
It's not as if he's going to make 100 grand in that first three weeks. So um I think there's going to be opportunity to get him.
00:28:21
Warnie
But are you still happy to pay, are you still happy to pay over 900 for a Horned Francis? That's probably the, that's the ah kind of thing, like when you are moving around there, because you're going to have to have other players. And this would be the conversation later on, like what are you doing if you're not picking someone like that as an F1, but yeah.
00:28:39
Jon Harmey
I was just going to say, hey, Lou, have you been down to port training? Because you do go down occasionally, don't you? hey So, I mean, I would have thought that it would be Horned Francis, Rosie and Butters as a starting three. And then I don't really know where your Ollie Wines and Willem Drew sit. So have you been there at all?
00:28:55
Lew
I've been to a couple, but as you know, when when you're at training, you know there's 15 midfielders, so you never really know which team is sort of the stronger one.
00:29:01
Jon Harmey
Yep.
00:29:05
Lew
um Personally, I think Horned Francis price at 90 does have upside. i can 100% see the argument that he's one that you can trade into. That's perfectly valid for me. If I was going to try and make a case for him, I suppose that I would say that over this offseason, he's gone over to the US with um Travis Boke and a couple of the other boys who In previous years at Port has proved quite fruitful. They come back and end up generally having quite a good season. So um that's advantageous for us. ah He's quite young. I think he's going to get more midfield responsibility. He's definitely going to be fitter. and I like the um ah like the ability that he can rest forward and kick one or two goals. He's got a little bit of danger field about him where I won't be surprised if he picks up forward status a couple of times throughout his career.
00:29:56
Lew
um What do I peg him at? I think 95 to 100. I think um we're going to have some major changes in the Port Adelaide game style. So that's probably one of the the main things I'll be watching um this preseason, not just as a Port fan, but as a fantasy fan, because obviously there's no Charlie Dixon. He's gone and Port um have flagged publicly, but also sort of behind the scenes. It's been pushed quite a bit that there will be a bit of a major game style change they can't just go and bomb it into the full forward anymore so i'm looking at players like you rosie your butters your jason horn frances that can deliver the ball really well inside fifty to a target like a jack lakosius so for me i think the improvements going to come from his age he's going to get older a bit more mature he's going to naturally improve i know people hate that uh... i think the role is going to be improved and i think the game style is going to
00:30:52
Lew
be built partially around Jason Horne Francis because for those who don't watch Port Adelaide Games, he he generally is the guy who's um whose winning matches for us.
00:31:04
Holmesy
Interesting stat that Jayden put up last night. I haven't checked it, but I assume it's right because it's Jayden. But he said that no midfielder under Ken Hinckley in his whole career has averaged more than 75% CBAs.
00:31:16
Holmesy
So Ken Hinckley loves spreading his love spreading his midfield.
00:31:17
Lew
Sack him.
00:31:20
Holmesy
And and that was that was last year with Rosie, Horned Francis, Butters, Wines and Drew. So that's that's my biggest flag just because I expect to Rosie and Butters to continue doing what they're doing.
00:31:27
Lew
But.
00:31:32
Holmesy
and But yeah, definite, definite pre-season watch. I'm just um'm just trying to toy with, you know, why pay for a Horned Francis at 90 when he can go maybe 95, 100 when there's lots of midfielders that are around that 90 mark that can potentially go 105, 110. But admittedly, yeah it's midfielders against midfielders and not forwards, but Louis.
00:31:51
Lew
No, I was just going to say one thing I forgot as well is there might be a bit of a transition period this year as well, um potentially at the top there for port. So what that does to the game plan, I'm unsure, but um yeah, just, just a bit of a flag there.
Injury Histories and Midfield Roles
00:32:07
Lew
It might not be this, just the Ken Hinckley coach team that we've always seen.
00:32:12
Holmesy
Beautiful, now another another player that's being considered at this F1 spot, ahead of Jack McCray, at least by price, is Isaac Rankin. Now he's an interesting one, so he's priced around 78. Last year we know that he had a lot of injury games, um he also had that suspension, so he was his season was very start-stop, but if we do a little bit of stat manipulation here, so when he went above 30% CBAs last year, he averaged 88, and then games above 40% he averaged 94. Now admittedly that was only a five game sample size so take from that what you will it might have just been good matchups but word out of Adelaide is that they want him in the midfield they want him to have that sort of even split between midfield and forward and he's that dynamic player that AFL clubs love to have in their midfield these days and he's actually very good at it. ah The issue's always been his body breaking down but
00:33:07
Holmesy
I can see why people are interested. If you can buy him at 78 and he can go sort of 90 to 95 and put himself in in top six calculations, then and that's a that's a pretty good pick, Hami. But the word of the preseason is that there's so many midfielders at Adelaide and we don't know how it's going to line up. You've got Dawson, you've got Crouch, you've got Selego, you've got Peatling, you've got Rankin, you've still got some of the other younger guys coming through. There's an Isaac Rankin,
00:33:34
Holmesy
do do you Do you get the feeling like I do that he's their second best player behind Jordan Dawson?
00:33:40
Jon Harmey
He's a good player. The thing about Rankin is though, like he's priced it around he about 80, isn't he? So ah what what changes for him? Are you just saying he had a couple of injured games last year? So you you sort of factor in a bit of a bit more points because I can't see him getting a significantly increased um proportion of these CBAs in that midfield with Peatlin coming in and ah they've still got you know plenty that they probably want to get through there. So ah I don't think he's going to be the midfielder. So is that what we're saying? you know He's going to be <unk>re just going to get a bit more of the peel and so it doesn't have those couple of injured games.
00:34:18
Holmesy
Yeah, well, yeah you clearly, you're banking on him having a healthy season, but yeah, I i genuinely think that he could be that 40% plus CBA guy every week. Like last year, it was down, up, down, up. Some weeks he was getting 15%. Some weeks he was getting 40%, 50%, 60%. So a bit of consistency in role. Apparently he's training the house down as they all are at the moment in that midfield role. So look, I'm i'm keen. I'm interested. I'm not saying I'm going to pick him, but I definitely think he deserves to be in the conversation alongside Horne Francis-Lou.
00:34:48
Lew
Yeah, no, definitely. um It's going to be an interesting watch, the crows, what they do with that midfield mix. I do worry with Rankin if the crows aren't scoring. Obviously, they've got a pretty aged text walker out there. um Phil Thorpe's quite a young player. Who's going to kick the goals there? I think Rochelle still needs a bit of time to develop. Rankin was just such ah such a weapon in front of the the big sticks. Can he do both? A crow's going to have to rob Peter to pay Paul sometimes.
00:35:19
Lew
um ah I think he's probably an 85 perennial forward to be honest.
00:35:26
Holmesy
Yeah, and he might be. We'll just see how it plays out in the pre-season. Hami, we're going to go to some more sort of mid-price speculative picks now, and then we're going to get to a whole bunch of listener questions that will quickly rattle off. So you've got down Riley Sanders here you want to talk about. He's from Tazzy, is he?
00:35:42
Jon Harmey
Yeah, he is, yeah, he's from Launceston as well, like the yeah the two experts on look on the podcast here at the minute. um Yeah, but look, I'll tell you that Worney said he hasn't got a proper teammate yet, or he hasn't got a complete team, I think.
00:35:58
Jon Harmey
This guy is currently sitting in my M5, so I've sort of got him and then a rookie at the M6 spot, the sorry, F5, sorry, and F6.
00:36:04
Holmesy
F5
00:36:08
Jon Harmey
so
00:36:08
Lew
and f6.
00:36:10
Jon Harmey
F6 being a rookie loop.
00:36:10
Lew
You got two of them.
00:36:13
Jon Harmey
But Sanders, say he's coming at a price at $656, an average of $64, of which he was the sub five times, I think last season.
00:36:23
Jon Harmey
So, you know, even if he, um you you see Daniel and McRae out the door and he ah doesn't sit in that sub vest and someone else does, it'll be a a bloody great result.
00:36:35
Jon Harmey
because this guy was a junior pig. He averaged 125 for the allies and 107 in the what's the other league than the other league. So ah look, he's got the um scoring capability.
00:36:48
Jon Harmey
It's just a matter of whether he gets a decent run in the VFL last season as well. He had six games when he got dropped
00:36:53
Warnie
Thank you.
00:36:55
Jon Harmey
and he averaged 117 playing in the VFL. So, I mean, the potential is there, priced at 64, he could be anything really, this guy. So, I just feel like with the Bulldogs having a bit of an aging midfield with Trillor and Liberatore, you know, they traded up in the draft to get him at pick six. So, they should be investing time into him. He should really be there, um they're jamming that in midfield that they're trying to develop. So, I'm hoping It's a good season for Riley Sanders.
00:37:27
Lew
Is that his second year he's going into, Hami?
00:37:29
Jon Harmey
Yep, rookie last year, yep.
00:37:31
Lew
I wonder what um what the highest sort of average we've gotten from a second year player would be. It might have been like a Clayton Oliver or just over at the ton.
00:37:36
Jon Harmey
Clayton Oliver, yep.
00:37:38
Holmesy
Clayton Oliver, yeah.
00:37:39
Jon Harmey
yeah
00:37:42
Warnie
guess the biggest things that we're looking at with him is just is that role and it's where he's going to be sitting in that pecking order at the dogs and and Bevo is where we're at like we just know he's scoring potential and what he can do and and he showed that a little bit too like he's you know he had five games where he was subbed so there's that little bit of natural there but it's not like actually taking out the sub games as we like to do with stuff only bumps his average by six but it are those numbers where like in that VFL that 117 average and that was from a decent number of games like it was from seven games there and and the build his scores can be built I think I said actually is that podcast coming out if we talked about the Bulldogs yet I think I talked about it there basically his score builds in those games were like quite different like he can mark he can
00:38:20
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:38:25
Warnie
had a big tackle game, he can kick goals, he just does it all and obviously I think the AFL level is definitely below him because he's just got that um capacity to play and he's a pretty solid unit too so um he's got a man's body um as that 19 year old that he is so I think it just it looks nice in the article that I did on the AFL website I sort of put him down as a draft sleeper and it's kind of that thing it's a safe place to put someone you always have to find someone to put in these categories as well. But um if he's a draft sleeper there with like basically ranked as the 50th best forward. And so you just feel like he's, he's a top 20. What does that look like? And
00:39:07
Warnie
We'll probably have him coming up later. I think the the real change at the Bulldogs that will be the thing because I don't think the the loss of well a loss of McCray helps um because McCray still had a couple of couple of uh sort of roll things that might actually help him a little bit there because he was at half four didn't get a lot of midfield time there, but probably the the real big thing is Matt Kennedy coming in. I think that's those two are going to be almost fighting for a position, or not so much position, fighting for clock um if we want that that centre bounce time and that's what it's what it's going to be about in that midfield. But when you watch him live too, like he starts on that half forward, he pushes straight in. um Harms was kind of his issue last year and they were they were fighting it out at training and in games as well. so
00:39:53
Warnie
um Yeah, it's one of those ones like I probably spent a fair bit of time thinking and looking at him a lot last year I work with his old man actually so that's um we have lots of discussions and conversations there and um Yeah, it's interesting to see what that looked like for that But she's reports to at the moment. he He is playing midfield and he's doing all those right things, too
00:40:14
Lew
So you're thinking he's going to slot in number four there, just jostling with Kennedy.
00:40:17
Warnie
yeah Yeah, and I think that's where it is. And the the Kennedy thing, that's what we want to see more of. um But I do really, my my worry, and this is the thing.
00:40:26
Holmesy
and Ed Richards.
00:40:28
Warnie
Yeah, well, Richards is there as well. And I think that he's probably ahead as well.
00:40:31
Lew
Oh, yeah.
00:40:32
Warnie
They showed that last year. They showed that that's what they'd like to do. Yeah, it's probably more on the other side of um the three old boys there, um what they're going to be doing.
00:40:43
Warnie
Like, Libar, what's he, 33 now? Treloar can't be far off that as well. and the The opportunity like Sanders and even probably talking about Kennedy as well, their opportunity might really come through some management or even the bodies of those older
Unpredictable Tactics and Player Prospects
00:41:00
Warnie
boys. And that could be the thing that we'll see that spike and you're not picking a player hoping or thinking that that might happen, but that might be where we really see the the upside in someone like Sanders.
00:41:11
Lew
I could really see us having a year like the other year where half the dogs midfielders are all forwards.
00:41:17
Warnie
Yeah.
00:41:17
Lew
if they're If they're all rotating off that half forward flank, they're all pretty handy in front of goal there, so that would be one to watch.
00:41:17
Warnie
yeah
00:41:22
Warnie
Well, Libba even got Ford status a couple of years ago, didn't he?
00:41:25
Jon Harmey
Yep.
00:41:25
Warnie
Like he must have done enough in that time.
00:41:25
Lew
Yeah.
00:41:28
Warnie
And and I think that might've been one of those first, um yeah.
00:41:31
Holmesy
Didn't he have, didn't he have COVID early in the season or something? And they were, they were getting him back, I think. And he played a couple of games.
00:41:35
Lew
Mate, but he's a hand he's a handy forward. He can find the stick sliver, so.
00:41:40
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:41:40
Warnie
Yeah. And then Bond as well. I didn't even mention him, but like, what's his role? Is it going to be back in the midfield? I've always liked to talk up Brownlow Bond and think this might be his year. And for him to get that, I think that you want him in the guts, but he's just more and more, you see how important and dangerous he is to have that mid forward mix that he does.
00:42:01
Holmesy
Look, I think what we can all agree on is that no one knows what Bevo's gonna do. And I think you're gonna wanna be pretty sure if you're paying up a 64 price tag for for Riley Sanders. And even if you're sure after round one, there's nothing to say that won't change in round two, round three, like we saw last year or like we've seen every year since Bevo's been in the comp. So one, I'm watching, but I still think it's gonna rely on a liver or someone being injured or being out for him to get extended opportunity to to really score for us. so What we're gonna do to finish off, we've got a whole bunch of listener requests here. So we're gonna go over we'renna go over all of them, some a little bit more in depth than others, and we'll do a bit of classic like or dislike. So Lou, I'll start with you, Liam Baker, a bit of a buzz name because he's moved across from Richmond to West Coast price at 78 off the back of a career year that saw a lot of mid-time. Do you like or dislike Liam Baker?
00:42:51
Lew
Yeah I don't like it and um I'll throw to you guys after this because I haven't looked into Liam Baker much on purpose. I just see him as a bit of a Mr Fix It guy and he's gone off to the Eagles and I think that's going to be his predominant role. like um The Eagles aren't going to be shooting the stars out for fantasy points and I can only see them really retaining it if they're just trying to to sort of stop the bleeding on the scoreboard. I just think Price at 78, he's probably an 85 guy. Yeah, he's going to pop for a ton every now and then, but I think he's going to have some accountability that just pulls him right down to
00:43:30
Lew
you know yeah we're talking about sub 50s here so Liam Baker I think I'd rather just see it first and then trade into it um but yeah to jump on from a starting squad perspective it's it's not for me but ah any of you boys got got another thought on him or
00:43:48
Holmesy
Warning loves Lambaker, why don't we give him the floor?
00:43:49
Jon Harmey
Nah.
00:43:51
Warnie
Yeah, i've had I've had a relationship with Baker and I don't love it, but I can see it possibly happening. I think what it might be is, again, it's these unknowns and we are talking in January and all that sort of stuff, but if he did have that half-back role and they did want him to be a distributor, it's that's where I think he can, although his midfield numbers have been the best, I think, but that sort of role for an eagle side if he was the man, but she's Yeah, it's 78. If it was a 68, you could consider, but a 78, you're just probably not gonna quite get that. I just can't see him being a lot over 90, which is what he'd need to be.
00:44:28
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I think it's going to be pretty tough in that Eagle system, but and in saying that, if we see that he's got the distributed role, we've seen Duggan score okay back there with it. And at times that there might be potential for ball, but not someone that I'm looking at currently, but I'll keep a close eye on. Hami, one of your bomber boys, Ben Hobbs, priced at 48.5.
00:44:47
Holmesy
when it's 76 and a half the year prior and I'm pretty sure that had some vest scores in it as well which meant that he had, I'm pretty sure he had a run where he was going around with that 80 mark. Do you see him best 22 at the Bombers? Is there an avenue for him to break in and be a scorer or do you think he's going to be outside the best 23?
00:45:03
Jon Harmey
I really like Hobbs as a player and I think it might be the last year of his contract from memory as well. so i mean I'd like to see him get a good run, but I don't see him.
00:45:15
Jon Harmey
i mean It's probably the hardest line up in the AFL to get a run in, to crack the 23, so I can't see him.
00:45:22
Warnie
deepest midfield in the comp.
00:45:25
Jon Harmey
So I can't see him being there in round one or round zero, but I guess that'll probably tell us. But yeah, I mean, I don't see him being there. And if he does is probably a sub risk as well. So, I mean, I'd like to see him have a good crack at it, but I think that there is too many ahead of him to to think about starting in our fantasy sides.
00:45:45
Warnie
This is the sort of perfect player that if everything went right and this is what it worked out to be, this is why you're not going an F1 that's not McRae, like that's where McRae's your F1 and you can throw in this sort of guy here um on the back end of your midfield, of your forward line, sorry, and go um and go him at F5 or whatever that ends up being. And it's a nice, like, cause that average at these price at 48.5, like if he's playing, he's going, he's putting 20 on that.
00:46:14
Jon Harmey
Yeah, because there's there's a few around this price point as well. um And I think, you know, we'll get to a few, but I've had a look ahead and there's a few that aren't on the list. Like I'll talk about somebody that could, um you know, make us all look stupid, Jack Martin at Geelong, ah somebody that could get a bump to a GWS who elected to stay, could have left and that's Xavier O'Halloran and he had a good VFL season last year. So there's there's actually a few around this price point that we could be looking at.
00:46:43
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, agree, Hami. And here's another one. Now, I'm not saying to pick this guy, but I think we always have to keep our eyes open at this type of player.
Sleeper Picks and Role Speculations
00:46:52
Holmesy
Like no one picked an Oliver Dempsey last year to start in the preseason.
00:46:56
Holmesy
If we had have mentioned an Oliver Dempsey, it would have been, he's not best 23, he's a best risk, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, but then goes on to play 23 games and and win the rising star. So we need to keep an open mind.
00:47:05
Lew
ah from
00:47:06
Holmesy
And the player I'm talking about is Neil Erasmus. Now priced at 42, He's a huge vest risk and he's never shown that he's been able to hold down a best 22 spot at Frio um and especially this year um with Bolton coming in and then being a strong strong team. He's fighting for that spot ah against Johnson and Noddy and Fife and they've shown that they want Johnson in there. so Priced at 42, he's got a career average of 70 across 11 games in his career that weren't sub-affected. So there's no doubt he's got the scoring potential. But whether he's best 23, and even if he is, he's always a huge chance to get a vesting game. So it is tough to go, but I like it if he can break in. It's now or never in his fourth year. And he had an unbelievable waffle final series. So if he doesn't do it now, he never will. So he's playing for his career. army But and Neil Erasmus, we we know the risk, but could be a punt.
00:48:01
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I love it. I mean, he's a great player ah at Peel and a great player in the pre-season. He just isn't getting it done in the regular season, is he?
00:48:09
Lew
How many points you get for that, Hami?
00:48:09
Holmesy
Yeah, so.
00:48:13
Jon Harmey
AFL fantasy points. I have to check with one of you, he'd know.
00:48:20
Lew
He's not cracking into that midfield though, is he?
00:48:20
Holmesy
Beautiful. Well, no, you wouldn't think so, but Fife had 60% last year and he's he's coming off surgery and
00:48:23
Jon Harmey
He'll win the time trial, Luke.
00:48:23
Lew
Unfortunately.
00:48:27
Lew
You know, five's not cracking in either.
00:48:32
Holmesy
not So it's it's probably Johnson, but yeah, keen to watch, but just yeah, it's just to watch at this stage.
00:48:33
Jon Harmey
cracking the rehab.
00:48:40
Holmesy
Uh, Warnie, Riley Philthorpe. So former high draft pick priced at 62. Um, it's a, it's a discount off a career year. So I went 68 last year. He's supposed to be their big forward backup ruckman. That's supposed to take the comp by storm. It did look like he was building quite nicely. Is he someone you could look at with a potential backup rock roll and taking the number one mantle in that forward line now that Texas is getting on?
00:49:05
Warnie
I think there's some upside there, but it's probably just one of those ones where it wouldn't be enough and we all revert back and we can still keep some of our old school thinking of things of the the key, the big um player. We don't really want them in our size. Like the 62 is probably just a bit too much, I think, to be paying for him to get from the start.
00:49:24
Jon Harmey
If you're going to go a key forward like that, you're probably going to target Tom Lynch, aren't you?
00:49:28
Warnie
Hmm.
00:49:28
Jon Harmey
um Anyway, because he's a lot cheaper.
00:49:29
Lew
Yeah.
00:49:31
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that one. Louis, Mason Wood was asked about, so priced at 82.6 down from the 91 the year prior. In that St Kilda system, that's conducive to points. He was able to get a lot of the ball on the wing and the half forward. Is he someone that you'd look at as a bit of a bounce back or do you think with the addition of some of these outside players and the natural progression that we're predicting from a Philippu that a Mason Wood's just going to keep on the downward trajectory?
00:49:58
Lew
Exactly right mate. I think Mason Wood will probably stay about where he is. Fantastic winger but yeah there's plenty of players coming into that side who are probably going to take a couple of extra points off him he didn't have last year.
00:50:10
Warnie
As an owner last year, as an owner, you talked about him, does he bounce back?
00:50:12
Jon Harmey
Hm.
00:50:15
Warnie
I thought when I read the 82.6, I thought that was a bit over. So yeah, not happening.
00:50:22
Holmesy
umy You wanted to speak about this bloke before, so I'll give you the floor now. Elijah Hewitt, so third year in the system, priced in the low 30s off the back of not playing any footy last year, is the rookie that everyone's putting into their sides of that F6, potential F7 option if you're going deep. Why did you want to talk about Elijah Hewitt?
00:50:40
Jon Harmey
Oh, that's it. I mean, he's rookie price, isn't he? He's priced at 32, just as much as yeah Isaac Kakao or Joe Berry sort of player at that price point. So but he was, I mean, he was drafted by um West Coast out of WA as a midfielder, a guy that had been playing set like I don't know, 10 games in the the waffle seniors as a 17-year-old. So they brought him in there as a midfielder, picked 14 at the time, um and his season last year was destroyed. I think it was a bone stress ah stress reaction or something like that. And then he tried to come back, but he didn't get there. So um was was in the vest several times in his first season in 2023. But he still put up scores of 73, 65, 67 when he wasn't in the vest. So I think that as a ah forward option there, he's somebody that I've got sitting in my team um as a placeholder, but optimistic that he could be best 23 at West Coast this season.
00:51:42
Holmesy
Yep, agree with you there. Hami Liu, why don't you talk to us about Jai Simkin. So price at 76.2. Last year, a bit of a tail of two halves. So he was he was a bit injured to start the year and and came off a bit slow. But after round 13, he averaged 88.6 for the rest of the year. And Chris the winner actually talked about Simkin as being one of his better picks with the the time that he got him up and being able to loop and whatnot. Does Jai Simkin interest you at all at that F1 spot?
00:52:12
Lew
no no he doesn't last year he i was actually quite interested in him but um... and i thought last year would probably be the year where the ruse do rely on joe simpkin a bit more you know being a pretty fresh captain of the club they had some young midfielders in there like a like a ward law or a sheasel uh... would come in a little bit later but i thought it would happen last year ah another year of development through some of these young mids at north they've probably already gone past simpkin to be totally honest with you i think um... LDU will be sort of the wrangler there and then Simpkin might just come in with that 50% CBA mix ah like he did last year. He's fairly effective in front of goal as well which we saw in certainly in his first season so I think there might be a bit of um not maybe not regression off the 76 but I think there might be some regression in terms of CBA's for Jai Simpkin to be honest.
00:53:06
Holmesy
Warnie, do you think Luke Parker's going to come in and play a predominant center bounce role or do you think he's going to be more forward?
00:53:12
Warnie
No, I think he's going to be more forward, but he's going to be that mid forward by the looks of it, I think. and And he'll just be another one in the mix with the Simpkin, like maybe their magnets have got the X's next to each other.
00:53:19
Lew
Yeah.
00:53:22
Warnie
And that's how that could work. um Yeah, that's going to be the worry. They might both actually affect each other's um scoring potential with that, with ah the way they go. But that it'll be a big preseason watch to see exactly what those mixes will look like. But um yeah, as we saw last year, they're evolving a bit in that midfield. We saw Schiezels now a midfielder, so that that change, that's not how the season started. So we'll see what happens there. But again, like Simpkins Young, like he's got, and he's got the potential to score, I think, was it around
00:53:53
Warnie
round 24 last year you had a pretty good game I think you had a 120 whoever I think it might have been these are all those memories and they get hazy and you try to put them in the back of your head because you don't want to think about them again but I think he was the guy that I moved out for um Jeremy Cameron and well that looked really good because I think the games were played at the same time I was at York Park that day watching that game in the the drizzle the North Melbourne game and ski simply was having a good game but um whatever happened it was quarter time or whatever and um Cameron was on track to score 200 or something like that. I think he was on it and for a massive one. It was looking good, but then I think there was probably a kick between him in the end or something like that anyway.
00:54:29
Lew
So round one this year, what are we thinking? Cherry, LDU, Wardlaw and Chisel?
00:54:36
Jon Harmey
Yep.
00:54:37
Holmesy
Yep.
00:54:37
Lew
Starting, yep.
00:54:37
Warnie
Sounds pretty right.
00:54:38
Lew
So anybody else is coming up after four. So it's gonna be an uphill battle.
00:54:45
Holmesy
Yeah, would have thought so, Lou. Ah, Wardy, I'm going to throw back to you because you did mention this guy before. Matt Kennedy priced at 77. Now I think you guys put up a stat, but I have one here as well. So in 33 games across his last three seasons, when he's had more than 50% CBAs, he's averaged 95. And I think you found one a little bit higher than that as well.
00:55:08
Warnie
Yeah, well just even last year, that's what it was, basically 50% of more CBAs in his non-sub games, because I think he had a sub game where he still went at 50%, but you know you can take those out because he did that, but no, that was like a 106. So we I think we don't need even need to really talk about the numbers, we just know it's a massive spike for him doing that. um We talked about Baker being that Mr Fixit. And I think that's the issue that we've had with Kennedy in the past. So um yeah, it's just going to be seeing that role. But a 77 can be with a decent little mix of um mid. he He can really put a few on that. And he could be one in the mix there. It's one of those ones that's a really tough sell to um to to go all in, I guess, at 77. That's the thing. that's That's my issue with that look.
00:55:55
Warnie
um and the unknown and we and it's a joke and it sits there but Bevo is a massive factor.
00:56:03
Lew
Is he also one that might just sit forward?
00:56:03
Jon Harmey
um was reckon
00:56:06
Lew
Because he he is such a weapon up forward, he's got some of the best hands in the comp.
00:56:06
Warnie
Yep. He's a strong unit like even at times he was playing in the back line like that's where like for Carlton last year like that's where we saw that and but he was completely disrespected like all through the season too by them with what they were doing sub wise as well.
00:56:24
Jon Harmey
I just reckon, um like you know how you tell yourself a story about how this person's season's gonna play out. I just look at him and think, well he's actually just been squeezed out of Carlton. They told him that that you weren't gonna have a role for him, so he had to find somewhere else. Bulldog's taken him. I just feel he's gonna be depth. He's really just there um in case of emergency.
00:56:45
Warnie
It's almost the worst sort of, one of the worst clubs that he could have gone to. That's the thing.
00:56:48
Lew
Yeah, I see him as like a Riley West, so very good defensively forward, um can present an option um if the mid time's not there, but I do like him as a player a lot.
00:56:50
Jon Harmey
Makes you think he doesn't didn't have much choice though, doesn't it?
00:56:53
Warnie
Yeah.
00:57:05
Holmesy
Beautiful. All right. A few names, just a quick fire before we wrap this up. Ah, Hami, just give me a like or dislike. Joshua Shelley, priced at $64.
00:57:15
Jon Harmey
I like him as a player, but he's not going in the midfield and it's a dislike.
00:57:20
Holmesy
Perfect. Warnie, this one actually probably deserves a little bit of chat so quickly. Jack Silvani, priced at $44 of a full year of injury, rumoured to be playing off half back. Is there a world where he gets a bit of a scoring bump in that role with Newman being out or would he be one of those lockdown, um not really chasing the pill defenders?
00:57:40
Warnie
That's a worry, I guess what what number tall he ends up being and um Haynes is another in there, so it'll that'll just be interesting to see what that looks like. I think he can, know well, 44, just putting the big agates out on the line there, he's going better than 44, what that looks like. You probably wanna see what that does look like, but um but even if he was playing that third tall, geez, there's still, there could be enough upside, but it'd be a hard one to to really go for.
Podcast Conclusion and Future Plans
00:58:08
Holmesy
Yep, Lou, like or dislike Darcy Wilson from Saints priced at 65 after a good debut season.
00:58:14
Lew
Uh, look, I like it. I think the, um, I think the upside is, is limited in a classic format. But if you're a keeper coach or ah or a draft coach trying to have a swing, I think Darcy Wilson might be able to bring that average up to sort of 75 to 85 from 65.
00:58:32
Holmesy
Yep, and last one, Hami, is he still in your classic side? Hugo Garcia, like or dislike?
00:58:39
Jon Harmey
Look, he wasn't. um Just give me one sec, mate. I swear I've written something down the year.
00:58:42
Warnie
The notepad.
00:58:46
Jon Harmey
You're going to go see it. I don't have it. Someone's going to make it up. I think I see it if he's best 22, because in the VFL, he averaged over 110, that bloke. So I reckon he's got a bit of potential.
00:58:58
Lew
Can we hold you to it?
00:59:00
Jon Harmey
Well, if he goes 110 in the AFL this year.
00:59:02
Lew
No, no, no. If he's best 22, you got to pick him.
00:59:06
Jon Harmey
Yeah, if he's best.
00:59:07
Lew
You got to pick him.
00:59:07
Jon Harmey
Yeah, right. Yeah, I love if thinking about it. yeah
00:59:10
Holmesy
Yeah, all right. If he's picked round one, John Harvey, put him in an F5. Look, thanks for...
00:59:15
Lew
I could see him sweating already.
00:59:18
Holmesy
yeah Yeah. Guys, thanks for jumping on for the forward episode. Really, really good to to chat about all the different options. I mean, like we said, they're they're very vanilla at the moment with the way ownership's going, but that's what preseason's all about. We need to be having these conversations about all aspects and and thinking about other players because there's always players that are not really discussed that come out of the blue that end up being good picks. But, Warnie, thanks so much for giving us your time and Yeah, really appreciate it. What can we expect to see from you and the traders coming forward? The club previews finish pretty soon.
00:59:51
Warnie
Yeah, got a few to go and then sort of back in the swing of things when the end of the month comes. But um at the moment, we're organizing all our Patreon stuff. So that's all getting ready to launch for 2025 and some exciting things there. But yeah, I think a lot of the same old and and I think for a lot of us saw that little routine of life, isn't it? I know when these podcasts are coming out and that's when um I get those. Hopefully you blokes can continue on through the whole season. So harm if you you You just got to be better than Calvin and then you stick with that podcasting this year.
01:00:23
Holmesy
There you go, Hami. You heard it here first. You're going up against Calvin. Good luck. Hami, thanks for jumping on again. You've been here every week, which has been really good. Where can the listeners find you? You got back back involved in the socials yet? Or are you still just laying low?
01:00:37
Jon Harmey
Nah, I'll probably need to um fire fire that up a bit actually, mate. But maybe we'll hold off for a few weeks and we'll start doing a bit. But yeah, no, just find me here on the Pod Pod.
01:00:46
Lew
Shoot out a Hugo Garcia tweet, mate.
01:00:48
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I'll find some real stats, not some made up ones.
01:00:50
Lew
Yeah, beautiful.
01:00:52
Holmesy
And Lou, good to have you back as well. Where can the listeners find you?
01:00:57
Lew
ah Ah, just on Twitter, at LouisAF. Yep, that's it. Pod pod.
01:01:01
Holmesy
They're very, very good for a Port Adelaide rant and a meme, so get involved there, listeners. And we're at Pod Pod AFL on Twitter. I'm at Homesies Heroes. If you could leave us a rating and review on Spotify or Apple Podcast or wherever you listen to your content, that would be greatly appreciated. We'll be back next week with the defenders. We deliberately left these till last as ah I wanted to have as much information in the preseason as possible because picking the defenders is tough. So we'll be back next week to discuss all things defenders and we'll see you then.