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The Holmes Files - Strategy Chats with the Dolmanator #PODPOD
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Two-time top 10 finisher and 2021 Runner-Up Holmesy continues his one-on-one interview series with members of the AFL Fantasy community.
In this episode, Caleb coach of the “Dolmanators” jumps on to deep dive into his previous seasons and how he has managed to be such a successful AFL Fantasy coach. After finishing 7th in 2022, 40th in 2023 and then 169th in 2024, Caleb by the numbers is the most successful coach after the last 3 seasons! Making his podcast debut Caleb shares everything from starting squad philosophies, trading strategy and picking value.
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This episode was brought to you by Magic Sports. Magic Sports have a number of new products to help take your fantasy games to the next level:
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Follow us on X:
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Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Caleb: @Dolmanators
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod at Tomesy here talking all things AFL fantasy classic for you on this Friday, 17th of January. Back for another episode of The Homes Files and I have a another special guest on today. We're doing something a little bit different. We've had the we've had the winner, we've had the runner up, we've had Mitch from the Ballboys who was 16th and we've had Selby, but This guest that I have today is arguably more impressive than what the other guys
Caleb's Fantasy Success: 2022-2024
00:00:45
Holmesy
have done. Yes, it's are it's crazy to win the car and and finish really highly, but the amount of consistency that this coach has had over the last three years, which we'll get into is is quite and impressive and something that I'm sort of striving for. But I have Caleb, coach of the Dominators. Caleb, we'll get into your results in a second, but why don't you just introduce yourself to the listeners?
00:01:05
Caleb
Yeah, hey everyone. um I'm Caleb. I've been playing fantasy for a number of years now. Always something I've just enjoyed doing with my mates and has another adds another element to watching the footy. So yeah, great to jump on. Thanks so much for having me. Very kind words to start there, but yeah, looking forward to having a chat.
00:01:26
Holmesy
Yeah, look, so Caleb's making his podcast debut, which is which is awesome, but have ah have a listen to these results. So 2022, Caleb finished seventh, so hat number one. 2023, Caleb finished 40th, hat number two. And then 2024 finished 169th, but I believe you were sitting 97th.
00:01:47
Holmesy
in round 23 and then things just didn't quite go your way in 2024. So essentially one round away from being a back to back to back hat winner, which I'm not sure we've seen anyone do before, Caleb. So we've seen those results. When did you start playing fantasy in 2022?
Caleb's Fantasy Journey and Strategy
00:02:04
Holmesy
Have you been doing it for a lot longer than that? What's your sort of fantasy background?
00:02:07
Caleb
I would have started playing at the start of high school, probably back in around 2012, back when it was called a dream team, actually. But that was more, didn't have any strategy. Just forgot to make trades some weeks. Really like no clue what I was doing. Um, just more of, yeah, like a fun game to play with mates and then probably stopped for a few years and came back. I saw it was a 2017 and, uh, yeah, probably.
00:02:35
Caleb
I think it was 2019, 2020 and 2021. I finished in the thousands each of those three years. um And then yeah, went on that that run that you mentioned.
00:02:50
Holmesy
So in all the time that you've been playing seriously outside of outside of high school where, I mean, I think I had Darren Glass as my first player picked when I was in high school. So I didn't have it didn't have any idea. but So you're perennially finishing around that sort of thousand mark in the thousands and then the last three years you've gone back to back hats and then 169. So what do you think makes you so successful? Because we don't typically see that kind of consistency. There's been a few people that have been able to do it, but I mean, myself, I've been up right at the pointy end, but when it doesn't go my way, I've been out five, six, 7,000. What makes you so consistent?
00:03:27
Caleb
Yeah, it's interesting. I wouldn't say I've done anything necessarily groundbreaking in in my approach. I think consistency has come, I guess, from like being consistent in the way I've played the game in terms of um starting with a fairly, I suppose, general team, which we'll talk about in a bit. um And then just making sure I'm making informed decisions in my trade ins, but then also trying to pick the right time with the trade outs. And there's been discussion before about how much luck is involved in the game. And I do think I have had some luck, particularly as it comes to the end of the year in luxury trade season. It can really be a toss the coin whether you're trading
00:04:14
Caleb
That's better than your trade out. um And that that went well for a couple of years. Was okay last year, probably not as well as other years, but um yeah.
00:04:24
Holmesy
Look, I'm a big believer that there is an element of luck in the fantasy game. Like you can you can have everything go your way early and set yourself up and, and you know, ride the highs and hopefully not as many lows. But the fact that you've done it three years in a row now where you've been up the top end and seventh in 2022, that's right up the pointy end.
00:04:45
Holmesy
that Yeah, there's clearly you've got a system that I'm keen to sort of dive into, but can I just quickly backtrack to seventh in 2022?
Setting Up a Winning Squad
00:04:52
Holmesy
Were you ever a chance of of winning the car or would did you kind of climb late?
00:04:56
Holmesy
What was the deal in the story there?
00:04:58
Caleb
um I can't remember the exact timing of it all, but I wasn't a chance to win the car. I think I was probably 200th around the buys and then had a really good buy period moved up into maybe the top 50.
00:05:17
Caleb
And then slowly crying from there, I think in the last three weeks, it was just moving three or three or four four spots at a time. And seventh was the highest that I reached all year. And it happened to be in the last round. I think I moved up from maybe, actually I think I was outside the top 10 prior to that last round and then moved in to seventh to yeah, get, get a share of some of the, some of the good prizes, which was nice.
00:05:43
Holmesy
sounds sounds like you needed it because that would have been back in the 23 round only days, right? So maybe you needed the 24th round to to climb.
00:05:48
Caleb
Yes.
00:05:50
Holmesy
I remember, yeah, 2018 when I came ninth, I think ah ninth was the highest that I got, um but it was a bit like that. Just slowly, it just kept snowballing, slowly creeping up, creeping up, creeping up.
00:06:00
Caleb
and
00:06:01
Holmesy
And I think if there was an extra round or two, ah I might have been a chance, but yeah, that's that's interesting. And then, yeah, 40th last ah the year before and then 169th last year. So let's let's just deep dive a little bit into how you go about setting up a starting squad. So it's the beginning of preseason. You have a blank canvas. Where do you like to start first? You were mentioning pre-pod that you are. You like to leave it a little bit later. You kind of, ah you know, pencil in some players that you're interested in, but like to let things play out a little bit more. So talk us through what a preseason looks like for you.
00:06:34
Caleb
Yeah, I don't often look at things until probably maybe early Feb and then even more detail until like the the practice games. I really don't think there's a lot to get out of internal trials apart from maybe complete role changes. It's so hard to understand the split of midfield time and things like that. So I do try and take it, um, I guess fairly slow, but it is just keeping an eye on some of the key players that maybe have been talked about or being aware of players who have moved clubs or had a really good finish to the season last year. And so I've got an incomplete team right now, but I've gone through and added some of those players that have been talked about a lot. Um, and to be honest, actually sought by the highest own percentage for now, just to give me a bit of idea as to who
00:07:34
Caleb
um is on everyone's, um um who is on everyone's radar to keep an eye on.
00:07:41
Holmesy
Gee, that's interesting. We do have a ah question later on, so we might as well just touch on that now. So player ownership, when the season starts, is that something you really look at if someone's highly owned? So say like the the buzz name this year is Tristan Cherry, who's already 55% owned. Are you someone that likes to look at ownership percentage and that might sway you to potentially pick them or fade them? Or are you just, I just pick the best players that I believe are at the best prices and the the ownership percentages are what they are?
00:08:12
Caleb
Yeah, I don't think ownership percentages ever deterred me from picking someone, as in it's never made me um not pick someone because they're too highly owned. um I only really look into ownership percentage percentages maybe a little bit later on in the year if I need to get um more of a leg up and take some more risks. I think at the start, if someone's highly owned, then they're probably highly owned for a reason. And you don't want to miss out on that.
00:08:42
Caleb
So I, yeah, I have no issues with starting someone who, as you said, Sherry 55% this year. Yeah.
00:08:51
Holmesy
Yep. Yep. Perfect. So you you mentioned that you are, you like to just leave things and you're just putting in some players of interest at the moment. So how do you go about doing your pre-season research? I mean, this could make or break considering we want people to listen to the podcast, but are you a big content, a big content guy? Do you listen to all the podcasts? Do you like to do your own research to keep the mind fresh? What do you what do you sort of do?
00:09:13
Caleb
I do a little bit of my own, but then I like to compliment that with, I suppose, other opinions and bouncing ideas of things that I hear and also people I know. So whether it's listening yeah to some of your work that you've done or last two or three years, I've bought Sylvie's Guide and supported that, which has been helpful for um various statistics and numbers. And they do some podcasts as well that I listen to. So I think trying to yeah have your own ideas, but then either getting that confirmed by what you hear from other people or maybe hearing things that might challenge your thinking on certain players. But I do think there's a balance between um absorbing too much content low and not enough. Yeah.
00:10:05
Holmesy
I do have ah a bit of a random question
Draft League Stories and Strategy Insights
00:10:07
Holmesy
off the cuff. I was just having a bit of a look before and was it 2022 that you had ah a draft league that had three hat winners in it?
00:10:13
Caleb
yeah Yeah, we did.
00:10:14
Holmesy
Was that right? So do you have a bit of a group chat going there?
00:10:15
Caleb
Yeah.
00:10:17
Holmesy
Because there's some there's some good fantasy minds in that in that group.
00:10:19
Caleb
Yeah, we're all mates um from our church and we we created a draft league and 2022 had myself finished Adam finished 21st, I think, and Tom finished 99th.
00:10:34
Caleb
So that worked out that worked out quite well. It was pretty funny. and We're all cheering each other on. and Yeah, helping each other with that. So we we talk a little bit about the game, probably more so about draft than anything, actually. um Got another mate, which I bounce ideas off for classic and things. But yeah, that's part of the fun of the game, isn't it? Is chatting to other people, and um particularly in draft leagues, competing against one another, particularly if it's for ah some cash.
00:11:03
Holmesy
Yeah, 100% couldn't agree more. that The group chats are what make AFL fantasy and draft um what they are. Okay, so starting squad philosophies. So you you mentioned that at the moment you're you're just putting in some players of interest that you like, but when you do start to formulate that initial starting squad, what are the what are the philosophies that you go by? And then we'll touch on how that might've changed last year with the the opening round buyers.
00:11:27
Caleb
yeah Yeah, like I said, I do like to start with people who are may seem fairly vanilla. And the reason I do that is if they are popular and they succeed, then that's great. You have them, you're going to get their points, you're going to get there their price rise and their cash that they make.
00:11:45
Caleb
And I think you'd hate, well, I don't like it at least risking not having someone popular who then makes heaps of money for everyone else, but not you. And similarly, if someone fails, um, then like some popular fails, then, um, at least that way, I'm sorry, if someone not popular fails, then at least that way it doesn't hurt you because you can always jump on them later. Um,
00:12:13
Caleb
But if you start someone who's really unique, um maybe like a kind of Buddha from last year, then it can be really hard to jump off because they haven't made any money. In fact, they've probably lost money and then it's really hard to make that trade to someone else. um but if you But if you are looking at some uniques and you think there might be a good starting pick, I do think There isn't any harm in waiting a week or two to see that role in real games, which is obviously one of the benefits of round zero to then later jump off or later jump on and jump off someone that you may, may have started who hasn't performed the way you wanted. So yeah, that's one perspective and one way I look at things. Um, I also look for people who may have been traded.
00:13:03
Caleb
to a new club or maybe have even had a role open up due to a trade. Um, so there's some names issue that e everyone's on top of like your McCrae's and Smith and Caleb Daniel. Um, but yeah, because with people moving on, sometimes that presents opportunity at the new at clubs as well. Uh, and as I also mentioned, I don't like to complete a team until, uh, after the,
00:13:33
Caleb
internal trials around that first practice game time. Um, cause I don't think they're a great indicator. I think the practice games are a far better indicator and that way you can just, yeah, still be aware and collect information.
00:13:48
Caleb
But then once you see in a bit more real scenarios, you can start to formulate a team and maybe a structure that, um, that you like. So there's a few there.
00:13:58
Holmesy
is that Is that because the the rookies are such a crucial part of the game? And at this point in time, we we actually have no idea about what rookies are going to be there for us.
00:14:07
Caleb
a
00:14:07
Holmesy
there's you know We can look at the rookies and you know the talk is that all of these rookies that have been drafted this year have some of the best fantasy pedigree, but until we actually see how they fit in the best 22, are they healthy, that kind of stuff, that there's really no point um picking them in and and trying to find a structure because who who actually knows how many we're going to have.
00:14:28
Caleb
That's right and obviously some rookies can cost 100k more than others so And that 100K could be used to then put on top of another player's head to get up to someone else. So it is really hard to set up that structure when you don't when you don't know the rookies. I think if you are trying to find a structure, you could put in some expensive rookies and some cheaper ones, because that's generally how it works out to be. But yeah, obviously you don't know exactly who's going to play.
00:14:59
Holmesy
Yep. Yep. Beautiful. All right. So let's just do a little bit of a 2024 recap. So you still went well in 2024, not quite to the to the lofty heights of the previous years, but did you find that the round zero and then the opening round buyers changed the way you played? Or did you still set your starting squad up in the same sort of way?
Round Zero and Opening Strategies
00:15:20
Holmesy
And if so, do you? Yeah. What did we learn about the opening round buyers?
00:15:25
Caleb
Yeah, obviously was going in blind just as everyone else was. um In terms of my team, from what I can remember, um I still had a few guys who played or who had an early bye and who played in round zero.
00:15:39
Caleb
Um, like guys like Zach Williams, Max Gorn, Freddie Grundy, who I actually traded out to Cherry pretty early on. Uh, and then rookie, or, um, some rookies like like Roberts and Howes, Alex Sexton, another one, actually. I think I only really had one other expensive person. I think that was Lucky Whitfield. And.
00:16:01
Caleb
That still worked out quite well. I think I made an effort to still make sure I was picking guys who I still thought were value. Um, because obviously when they play in round zero, they get that double price rise after round one. So obviously it's a negative thatre going that they're going to be missing a game early on, but the plus is that you get a really good look at what their role is going to be. And.
00:16:28
Caleb
You know that you're hopefully, yeah, you're going to get a double, a double price rise. So I think what I would take from last year is that you don't want to start too many guys. I don't know the exact number. You don't want to start too many guys from one buys.
00:16:46
Caleb
but you don't just want to ignore them purely because they have a early buy. I still think there's value to be found, um, particularly amongst the rookies and there's still ways you can balance your team where you can, um, whilst you might miss out on points early on when those more expensive guys like Whitfield, I mentioned who has the early buy, I think that can be overcome by,
00:17:11
Caleb
the cache that you're still going to generate from other people, if that makes sense.
00:17:16
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, Round Zero, it's it's a blessing and a curse, but you nail it. It's the only real footy that we get to see. Like we can watch these practice matches all we like, but the fact of the matter is they're playing 27, 26 players. um You know, a lot of the senior bodies are just trying to get run into their legs and and get through unscathed. we don't We don't know what the roles really are going to be. and And Round Zero gives us that in stone in a real AFL game. So Yes, they are going to miss miss games, which is unfortunate, but the double cash rise up until that point is handy. But what's also sort of glossed over is
00:17:52
Holmesy
You're not, they are they are missing, but you are getting to replace them with a rookie and you are getting a double shot at that rookie considering that they're on a buy and they get locked out in that last game. So, I mean, last year I vividly remember that a lot of the rookies were putting up fieldable scores early on that they were getting they were getting from the bench. So, you know, say, you know, Tom Green, the buzz word at the moment, priced at 99, who can potentially go 105 plus and everyone's saying, you know, oh, he needs to go 110, 115 because he needs to make up for that early round buy. But if you can, if you can loop on a rookie that goes 70 or 80, then you're not actually losing out on that much. And if you do, you replace Tom Green with a premium that doesn't go as well and only goes 90, you might only lose 15, 20 points in
00:18:36
Holmesy
and away you go. So it's it's not something that should be set in stone. I think there is space to to start these premiums as long as they are under priced and value. I think fairly priced or overpriced premiums are definitely a no-go. But what are you thinking there?
00:18:51
Caleb
Yeah, I wouldn't, I don't think I'd start anyone, yeah, fairly or overpriced. I think they would definitely have to be unders. The other thing you could think about is that by having a primo on the buy, it gives you a loop option for that week as well in your captaincy. Um, cause everyone else might still be playing. So, um, yeah, I think this year there's a team or there's a buy, I think it's round three, they have four.
00:19:20
Caleb
teams on a buy, whereas last year, every single one of them was just two at a time. So that's another thing to think about. I certainly wouldn't want to be having too many from that round three, even if they are all value, I think you can easily pick too many of them when there are four, when there are four on the buy.
00:19:38
Holmesy
Yeah, 100%. And that kind of leads into my next point. So there was a bit of talk, like we're all trying to learn the strategy for these opening round buyers, right? There's only been one year and and last year it kind of seemed that, I mean, the winners were pretty mid-priced heavy. So that kind of shows that they're still valuing in that type of a ah team, but also we were finding that you know teams that were more set up guns and rookies, not full guns and rookies, were actually doing quite well over the the early part of the season because of the best 18 and being able to drop off these these rookie scores. Do you think now that
00:20:10
Holmesy
the early round buyers have changed from like last year, they were spread out over over six rounds or five rounds with gather round in the middle. Whereas this year they're condensed with three rounds and then gather rounds at the end and we're back to normal scoring. Do you think that should play into a change of strategy?
00:20:27
Caleb
um
00:20:30
Caleb
Yeah, because I guess you only have the three rounds to think about. It's not as drawn out of a buy period. um So I think if you can still distribute the players that you pick evenly across those buys,
00:20:55
Caleb
you can still set yourself up really well. I would say that having it condensed I anticipate probably will be a little bit easier to navigate, be my guess, as long as you don't have too many in that round three.
00:21:09
Caleb
um
Captaincy and Team Evolution
00:21:11
Caleb
But I still think we can, even though it has changed again, I still think there are things that can be learned from last year and Yeah, I certainly understand what you're saying with the guns and rookies. I do remember that working quite well. I can't remember my exact team set up. I think I still had quite a few mid prices and I didn't get off to the greatest of starts, but um So yeah, that that could be something to maybe export this year is having that having that more guns and rookie strategy while still picking the most value mid price of guys that you can find.
00:21:47
Caleb
Yeah, certainly interesting.
00:21:48
Holmesy
Yeah. It's just, it's just something to sort of look at. I know there's, there was teams that, um, that went the more value strategy. And if you couldn't compete with the points that were being put on field early, you just, it didn't matter how much cash you were making with the value. You weren't, you weren't up there at the pointy end. And that's the the whole point of the value strategy and picking the mid prices and spreading your dollars is that you play with less rookies on field. You're able to get them off quicker and then you complete your team. But.
00:22:18
Holmesy
I think, yeah, last year with the six weeks, you were able to sort of hide it a little bit more and the ceiling scores were far more valuable in the best 18 system. Whereas this year, I think with the three buy arounds being more condensed and being back to regular scoring from round four, you could find yourself caught out between rounds four to 10 if you do go a little bit more guns and rookies.
00:22:37
Caleb
yeah it's only it's only one oh it's yeah one less round of best 18 isn't it so yeah you're right maybe you can't quite hide behind the best 18 as much because you got one less week to do so and i still think if you are going with the guns the guns still need to have some value there i would say um i don't know i don't know don't i don't know exact number maybe even like just five points maybe is still it's still a good value to have
00:22:57
Holmesy
Yeah, That's a good segue.
00:23:06
Caleb
And, but in saying that, I guess you do want a gun or two for early captaincy options as well. So yeah, so interesting to see how it plays out.
00:23:19
Holmesy
When you, when you start your starting squad, how many sort of players are you looking at um for captaincy options? So I think last year was, was such a, not an outlier year because we've had years like it before, but I mean, we were blessed with captaincy options that weren't fully priced. Like some of the bigger premiums, like a max Gorm was captable, captainable most weeks right up until the buy. I mean, you had Whitfield, Shezel, all of these guys that we were getting at a low 90s price point that were seriously outweighing their,
00:23:49
Holmesy
their price so we didn't have to worry but typically how many of these captain options are you sort of looking to pay up for?
00:23:56
Caleb
Yeah, that's a great point with those guys ah last year being cheap, but also captain. Well, I think the captain line or what you're after from your captain is a lot.
00:24:07
Caleb
less at the start of the season as well. you know Towards the end of the year, you're chasing 120s, but I reckon if my captain scores 105 at the start of the year, I'm probably reasonably happy kind of thing. So if I had to put a number on it, I'd probably say, probably wouldn't two to, I probably want three, I reckon.
00:24:29
Caleb
Two, at least two, because then you can loop hopefully both of those two options and then maybe a third in case one of those, one of those other two has a bad, a bad matchup to start the year.
00:24:43
Caleb
You can put the third one in there. But again, if, if you're picking, how do you say Tom Green's price at? 99. So
00:24:49
Holmesy
99 yet.
00:24:50
Caleb
Yeah, if you're picking him and you're getting 105 to 110 from him, then he's making a new cash. And ah yeah, I'd happily say 105 to 110 is a reasonable captain score to start here.
00:25:04
Holmesy
Yeah. Yeah, and and just because someone's not priced at 105 plus doesn't mean they're not a captivable option in a good matchup.
00:25:11
Caleb
Yeah.
00:25:12
Holmesy
So like, for example, O'Connor Rosie priced at 97, you wouldn't typically think of him as a captain option, but they have Richmond round too, and that's in a best 18 system. So you've probably got a loop option there potentially.
00:25:24
Holmesy
um you know You can always target these players that are playing a Richmond or a North or whoever whoever the team is that's giving up the the fantasy points. so Yeah, it's it's ah it's an interesting way to think about it and something I'd like to sort of ask you about and, you know, typically how I've played the game in the past. So you you said before, like a gun, you're looking for five five points-ish value, right? But gone are the days where you you're picking a premium, where you're picking them and you're hoping that they, you know, outperform their price by five points and you keep them for the for the rest of the year. so We're really looking for
00:25:59
Holmesy
runs especially like in terms of getting off to a flyer at the start of the year like I remember back in the day 2021 when I came second I started Zach Merritt and Jack McRae both priced at 110 to 112 and if you did that these days it's all you know why are you paying up for so much you know that they probably don't have much value but they both went at 120 over the first 10 rounds to start the year. So yes, they might only average one 10 for the year and not present value from a season long standpoint. But if they can have a run of one 15, one 20, then you're getting those points. Everyone's trying to jump on and then there's a bit of gamesmanship there. So what are you looking at with your premiums to start the year? Are you just looking for a sort of season long value or are you targeting runs to get off to a flyer? How do you go about it?
00:26:43
Caleb
um Yeah, traditionally I'm looking for guys that present value. I think whoever that it was Bonton Dawson last year that people paid up for and and I don't think that really worked out. um I didn't start with either of those two. I think to me there's more Well, yeah, at least the way I've played it, there's more um value in going those value guys early on. And ah ideally, yeah, you you know, you're you're chasing someone, you're chasing maybe a couple of guys who can push that 110 mark and increase by, yeah, 10 to 15 points. I think the five.
00:27:27
Caleb
five points thing is um you don't want you probably wouldn't want many of them probably maybe only one guy who can go five points more the rest each kind of chasing guy so you can push that yeah 10 to 15 point upside mark um and saying that you know, I get what you're saying about the safety and security of having someone you know who can consistently perform because then again, that adds another captain option at the start of the year. um But yeah, for me, it's traditionally been value you guys, I start with
00:28:04
Holmesy
Yep, perfect. So last year you just finished outside the top 100, so didn't quite go to the lofty heights of the previous two years. can you Can you pinpoint why that might've occurred? Were you a little bit more unlucky? Did the strategy have to change a little bit with the opening round buyers and then the mid-season buyers that were a little bit longer? Were you maybe not one of these coaches that adopted the 23rd, 24th premium to have
Reflecting on the 2024 Season
00:28:28
Holmesy
loopable options? What what can you sort of pinpoint that change for you to not quite ah get back to where you were the previous seasons?
00:28:35
Caleb
um
00:28:39
Caleb
It's hard to put an exact moment on it. It was probably a combination of just some trades not going as well as I would have hoped. um
00:28:51
Caleb
What was one? I got Luke Ryan during the buys when he was quite highly priced. Might touch on that more in a bit actually. um And then, yeah, luxury seasons, I think where luck where luck does come into things quite quite a bit. I did have 23 premiums, maybe even a 24th at one point. um And yeah, it's you can so you can make informed decisions, you can do what you think is right, and sometimes a player will score more than you're expecting, and there's not a lot you can do about it. um
00:29:27
Caleb
like ah Like I said, I reached 97th, I think, in round 23. That was the highest I got all year, first time in the top 100. I'd slowly been moving up, because, yeah, some of the trades were going okay, but then, yeah, it didn't work out for me in the final and the final round. I couldn't keep climbing, dropped about 70 spots. So, yeah, I wouldn't say I did anything drastically, like different from what I usually do. That changed my outcome. I still think I stuck to like the processes that I'd followed the previous two years. Just yeah here and there, some trades didn't go as well. Maybe I was tossing up between two people and and one went well and the one I got didn't didn't do great. so
00:30:15
Caleb
yeah
00:30:16
Holmesy
we'll ah We'll get back to the Luke Ryan thing in a minute. It sounds like you have a little bit to say, but what are what are these processes that you're looking to follow? yet Are you someone that just tries to build a tremendous amount of cash early days so that you can really storm home in the back half of the year? It sounds like you're someone that um typically finishes pretty well, which is how I've been in my successful seasons where you charge home after the buyers. But what are these sort of processes that you follow?
00:30:41
Caleb
Um, I think one of them is, um, obviously you at the start of the year, you're always identifying guys who may have had a role change, but I think it's also important to be on top of role changes that happen during the middle of the year. I think in 2023, it was, I got Rory Atkins in during the middle of the year. I think I had a reasonable buy playing half back.
00:31:06
Caleb
reasonable match-ups and got him in for some cash and some reasonable scores, but then also making sure that you jump off at the right time as well, because Roy Atkins, after that run, he didn't didn't do so good, thing went to a wing, played terribly, and then ended up getting dropped. So if you can get off at the right time and making sure you look at the team selections and trying to figure out where you think someone might play that week,
00:31:35
Caleb
And if you think they're going to maintain that role, then you can probably hold them. But if you think they're going to lose that role, then it could be could be the time to jump off.
Role Changes and Trading Benefits
00:31:42
Caleb
um I remember Jack Chris was another example of that from this year.
00:31:46
Caleb
I didn't, I didn't actually have him, but, um, he'd averaged like a hundred plus, maybe 105 plus playing as a mid for Collingwood before. And they had all those injuries this year with, um, Pendlebury, uh, to go, he probably a couple of others as well who miss some time.
00:32:03
Holmesy
Yeah, Tom Mitchell.
00:32:04
Caleb
Yeah, Mitchell.
00:32:04
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:32:05
Caleb
Yep. And, uh, Chris went back in the midfield and, you know, he was. averaging not not a lot in defence and probably had 20 points upside with that midfield role and it didn't work out for me to jump on him but again made heaps of money and you know score on hundreds but then when those guys came back he he lost that role and his time time on ground uh dropped again um so just got to find it's about I think they're trying to find that right
00:32:37
Caleb
balance and really analyzing match-ups as well. So um if someone's got a good run coming up, then you might be okay to hold them. Or if you see they got two bad games, then you you could you could jump off. And also looking at sometimes where those match-ups are played, like that Rory Atkins one, he had games in Darwin. And so you don't want a half-packer playing in dewy wet conditions in Darwin. you what You want him playing, you know, ideally in ah yeah in dry conditions.
00:33:07
Caleb
So having a look at maybe the match ups, the venue and yeah, I guess with those match ups comes, comes tags, which often, which often kick in later in the year when AFL coaches try and shut down some staff players.
00:33:23
Holmesy
Yeah. What I'm, what I'm getting from this is that you're very proactive with your trading and you're not afraid to, to get off maybe some highly owned guys. If you can pinpoint a ah run that's coming up and you know, maybe you do copper, copper, a big score in the, before you get off, but then once um you're ahead of the game, then, then that makes things good. And I know Selby is a big component of the, the other way. So getting on the guy early before everyone else gets on him so that you can be ahead of the game and then make the moves that everyone else can't make. But I do like.
00:33:54
Holmesy
Yeah, I think Crisp was a perfect example last year. I know i I had him and when everyone was looking to get off him, he then had a, he had a 105 point game. I think it was, but that was off the back of three goals in that first quarter, which clearly isn't sustainable.
00:34:05
Caleb
Yeah.
00:34:07
Holmesy
Um, so that would have been the perfect time to get off, but if you don't do it, you got other things to worry about, then all of a sudden he starts putting up the sixties and, and you're in a bit of trouble. So yeah, I really liked the proactive trading idea.
00:34:18
Caleb
I think what what what works for me is I have a look on Sunday night at some trades, throw some ideas around um just while the games from the weekend and you know what I've read and watched and yeah heard ah fresh in my mind, I'll try and make some trades and then um often than when, when teams come out, go back to those trades, see if they're still good or see if any other injuries or things have come up. Cause I think I find if I try and plan on like a Monday or Tuesday, what I'm going to do, then often there's someone get dropped or injuries and your, and your trade plans, uh, get changed completely. And you just find yourself spending a lot more time, um, on it than what was necessary in the first place. Cause cause they change.
00:35:09
Caleb
So I think trying not to over plan in that sense, but also trying to still be a step or two ahead with my trades. Like I think in the year I came seventh, I got on Bont maybe a week or two earlier than everyone else did. And whilst he became highly owned, I had him for those couple of weeks where he really set me on a path to yeah move up the ranks. And if you can do that with you know multiple guys throughout the year,
00:35:39
Caleb
then it's, it can really help you out. And yeah, the same goes for selling, trying them out as well. Um, trying to maybe anticipate a roll change or be a week ahead. Just cause, just cause a guy scores 105 after you trade him out. Doesn't mean it's a bad trade out, you know, cause then he could go 70 the next two weeks. Once that roll change does kick in kind of thing. So yeah.
00:36:04
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, the getting ahead thing's massive and not only with premiums, but it can be with rookies as well. I remember Lemon last year was well one of the only people that I knew that got on Sam Closie in his first game when he was a basement rookie. Everyone sort of waited a week and he closely comes out and and scores a 90 or whatever it was on debut and all of a sudden everyone in the comps jump into him paying an extra 50k whereas Lemmons got him at basement. He's now able to get the next guy that everyone else can't get unless they're willing to double downgrade which um which you know Tom I think did a double downgrade and still came second so that's
00:36:41
Caleb
yep
00:36:41
Holmesy
I think that's a strategy that needs to be looked at a little bit more because as a fantasy community, we've kind of just said that that's a no-go. But if there's two genuine rookies that you need to get and your team's looking okay, I i think it's a strategy that's quite viable.
00:36:53
Caleb
Yeah Yeah, I think
00:36:53
Holmesy
But how do you sort of, yeah, you go, sorry.
00:36:56
Caleb
Oh, sorry. Yeah. I think I jumped on closely that week. I think he debuted, I think could have been gather around. I was there watching him and you know, you I think he had a 90 odd and it's something you don't anticipate is a first year player playing on a wing scoring a 90 versus, um, I think G that rest are playing at gather around. So yeah, in a way there's, there's some luck there. I think jumping on a rookie, but it just so happened that I needed a rookie and he was cheap and was he was based on price and was playing but you know some people they may not they not need a rookie that week or they they need to get the guy from the week before um that did really well and then yeah you are kind of playing you are kind of playing catch up so because i think i got on closely then allowed me to then maybe get graham a week earlier than other people so yeah if you can somehow time it up or and yeah certainly luck involved but if you can plan it and time it so you're getting those rookies
00:37:55
Caleb
um a week or two earlier then yeah you're getting them 40 or 50k cheaper and if you do that for multiple guys then that's 150k you've saved and 150k is enough for an upgrade kind of thing so yeah it makes it does make a difference.
00:38:08
Holmesy
Yep. Yeah. 100%. The close one. So, so easy in hindsight. He was a mature age rookie. They'd been talk about how Gold Coast wanted to get him into the side, but it was a nervous trade in knowing that they just dropped four senior players and and those senior players could come back in if if Gold Coast got smacked. But yeah, really, really good trading. Let's get into some general strategy chat for this coming season. So Someone here has asked, how do we balance points with value?
00:38:36
Holmesy
So they had a pretty successful year. They were they they came out of the bias with essentially the same team as the team that won. They ended up with 24, 25 premiums, but they weren't competitive because they didn't put enough points on the board early.
00:38:49
Holmesy
So that's where the, I suppose, that the talk comes in of the value squad versus the teams that were able to put points on the board early with the with the best 18.
00:38:50
Caleb
Mm hmm.
00:38:58
Holmesy
How do we think we need to go balancing points and value to start the year?
Balancing Team Value and Points
00:39:04
Caleb
um yeah that's a good question i like that one i think if you can yeah it's really tough balance if you can balance the it's like it's something really hard to put a number on like how much how much money is like 50 points worth kind of thing at least i find that quite hard to put a number on some people out there might be able to do it but I think if you can, the way I see it is that if you can get the value early, then I do think those points are able to be to be caught up later. um But I think if you can nail some of your starting picks that present both value where they make you money and score points, then obviously they're the they're the winning picks, they're the they're the picks you want.
00:39:58
Caleb
um
00:40:01
Caleb
So I would say, Yeah, my view is still to go for the value side of things um and then hopefully use that value to then trade into some more points.
00:40:15
Caleb
If that makes sense, get on top of your cash generation early and then start to yeah be a step ahead in the number of um primos that you might have.
00:40:23
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:40:26
Caleb
So whilst going for value, yeah, might ah going for a rookie or a mid price over a premium might cost you Yeah, 40 points early on. I think if you have that cash and you can easily catch that 40 points back up by being a premium ahead over others who might still have a rookie on field. It's tricky one though.
00:40:51
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, it is. And I think last year, and and we touched on this before with the best 18 being spread out, I think this year with the best 18 being more condensed, I think the value strategy has a lot more merit to it. It's always got merit to it. But yeah, the fact that we're going to be back to best 22 scoring from around whatever it is, five onwards, um I think that that definitely plays into the value hands and and those teams that might have gone like I said more guns and rookies might find themselves caught out if they've got an extra rookie or two on field and then they put up the the stinker scores but as always if the rookies on field are the ones scoring then the guns and rookies can have its have its spot as well so yeah very very interesting
00:41:32
Holmesy
A question we had was, can someone please run the data on whether we should be doing guns and rooks because of early buyer's best 18 or more mid prices? um The answer I have to that would be you need to use Selby's team picker, um which all of the links are in the description below. So it has the ability to be able to put in multiple versions of your team, multiple structures, and then you can put in your price projectors and it will actually spit out the cash generation you look to get.
00:41:59
Holmesy
and then how many points you'll score as well. So that's the only way you're going to get that information is to actually run the trials yourself and and with the Bolter team picker you have the ability to do that. So I'd highly recommend um building your squads in Bolter. It's really easy with the save functions and you can actually then have a look at the different teams because that's something I've struggled with before. You're looking at you know, maybe a ah midfield structure with three rookies and then how that ah that affects the rest of your team or then a structure with two rookies. I mean, you don't really know unless you put the numbers in. So how do you, do you have anything like that where you sort of play around with structures to see ah sort of projections and price general or do you sort of more gut feel? How do you go about it?
00:42:38
Caleb
Um, yeah, I do play around with structures a bit. I haven't used that tool yet, but I certainly will because I'm often stuck taking screenshots of my teams and then losing track of what, what structure I liked and, and stuff. So being able to save versions of teams will be, will be really helpful. Um, I think, yeah, with the way I structure, I don't have any set way in which I structure up. I don't remember.
00:43:06
Caleb
what I've done the last, ah the way I've structured up the last years is in terms of exact numbers of premiums mid prices and, and rookies, I do think it is a year by year thing. Um, like I think the midfield rookies seem really strong this year and they seem the early, the top draft picks, um, seem like they'll play pretty, pretty early on. So, but then I also know, I think a lot of the, there's quite a bit of value in the, in the midfielders as well. So that, that is going to be interesting how how that structures up. um So when I play around, I usually try and um yeah, plug in all the guys that I know, I'm pretty sure I'm going to pick and plug in some sure thing rookies and and keep them in place. And then yeah, have a tinker with how the structure might look like if I pick a mid price in the
00:44:01
Caleb
in the mids and a rookie in defence, how that would look compared to if I did it the other way around, say a mid-pricer in defence and a rookie in the mids, and maybe also trying to add an estimate to ah points that score the points that will score, but then also maybe you know having a backup plan because defense, rookies traditionally haven't been very strong. So kind of want to make sure that you've maybe you got another guy on the bench that can that can score if you are starting one on field. So it will depend year on year, and it'll probably change again for me this year. um But yeah, I think it is important to be flexible and not being set in any one structure, like not thinking, oh, you know, I must ah must have this set up. This is the winning formula because that's what the guy
00:44:51
Caleb
did last year. I think it can change every year.
00:44:56
Holmesy
Yeah. Yeah. 100%. I'm someone that's been guilty of it in the past as well. You know, you, you come second and you think, you know, I've stumbled across, I've stumbled across this blueprint that's going to have me up there every year and you try to just emulate what you've done, but you're right. Every year is so different. Um, I know Selby in 2020, I think started a forward line that had no rookies on field, but it was just all value guys like brayshore, Smith, all these guys that were young and and coming into their prime. So there's not,
00:45:24
Holmesy
one way to play it and I just would encourage everyone to use the tools the Boulder team pick are available to play around with different structures and and not get locked into one particular structure or get um married to players because it can all change so quickly and I suppose that's why your idea of just picking a few players at the moment that you like and and letting it all organically happen later on is a viable strategy.
00:45:43
Caleb
and Yeah 20 was it 23 I think where we had those five midfielders, they all had forward status as well. You know, you, a lot of people start with those five. And so then naturally only left one, one rookie spot on field there. So you needed some more, some more rookies in the mid and it might almost be shaping up to be somewhat similar this year with a lot of those guys I mentioned before that have been traded that are looking like good picks in the forward line.
00:46:12
Holmesy
Yep. 100%. This one is interesting. So when you build your starting squad, do you have a, not a set amount, but are you someone that likes to get as much cash on your field as possible? Or you don't mind maybe going into round one with a little bit of cash on the bench for upgrades? I know.
00:46:30
Holmesy
this year with the with the value forward line that we have and and people not really willing to pay up in defense at the moment and and some of the midfield options that, I mean, i've I've made a team that I'd be happy to start with and it still has sort of 250, 300K left over. So is there a dollar amount that you don't mind being left on the bench or you're typically someone that tries to get as much of it on the field as you can to start?
00:46:52
Caleb
yeah i don't I don't mind have having cash left over. um I think if you yeah if there is a mid price that you pick that fails, then having that extra cash ah gives you or makes it easier for you to jump off and maybe maybe and go to someone else who who's done better. um ah I think a number I've kind of always just had is 100,000. I think just you know having less than 100k sitting there just looks right for some reason um but I'm not going to spend cash for the sake of it either like I'm yeah if I start with Tom Green who's priced at 99 because I think he's valued but I've got the cash to spend up on someone who's fairly priced at 105 then I'm probably but probably not gonna do that I'm still probably gonna go the value and just keep that cash for a
00:47:47
Caleb
for a rainy day kind of thing.
00:47:50
Holmesy
Yeah, I'm always someone that likes to try and spend it. um But at the same time, i I don't mind having a bit of money left on the bench for round one, but round two and round three, I try to have as much money on the field as I can, or at least on the bench, because round two and round three are where we get the biggest swings in price and money in the banks, money that's not being earned. So if you're leaving yourself two, 300K in the bank, then you're not making any money on that.
Defense and Ruck Strategies
00:48:21
Holmesy
um So that's when I like to try and have it spent, but you are right, it's tricky to not,
00:48:25
Holmesy
you have it sitting there and you're like, I need to spend it. So you put it on a plier that you might not necessarily. really really want it's just because you've got the money there you feel like you have to do it so that's yeah all part of it but yeah don't mind that at all. Let's ah let's go into defence for a little bit here because you touched on it before we've got the round three buy where we've got some pretty popular players so round three you've got Sydney, Collingwood, ah Geelong and Brisbane which is posing a little bit of an issue in defence with a lot of the quote unquote value options that we're looking at
00:48:56
Holmesy
having ah an early season buy. So just to name a few, the value defenders. So Rioli, Mills, Roberts, Perryman, Whitfield's not a ah ah value player, but he's an out and out premium that some people might look to start with this good run. and And then you've got Kitty Coleman as well. I know you said you haven't built your team fully yet, but what are we looking to do with these type of players knowing that this is the first year that we're going to have four of these teams on that buy?
00:49:23
Caleb
Yeah, there's some good names in there, obviously, and particularly on that round three by with Mills, Roberts and Coleman.
00:49:35
Holmesy
Roberts, Cole, Perriman as well.
00:49:35
Caleb
Yeah, yeah.
00:49:37
Holmesy
If you go down a Perriman route.
00:49:40
Caleb
He's round two, I think.
00:49:41
Holmesy
Nah, Colling would have the same bike.
00:49:42
Caleb
Oh, yeah, Coleman, of course. I forgot he got traded. So, yeah, that's that's quite a few. um So, ah can't anticipate you start with all four of them. ah maybe even Maybe even two of them feels a lot because then you need two rookies to cover and defence rookies traditionally haven't been haven't been great.
00:50:07
Caleb
um
00:50:08
Holmesy
Yeah, and then you throw in a, you throw in a Bailey Smith who is going to need to be covered that round as well with a rookie, a Levi Ashcroft if he's playing.
00:50:08
Caleb
ah
00:50:11
Caleb
Yep.
00:50:15
Holmesy
And then if you are looking at a, his brother Will or maybe and Nick Daikos is injured, but someone of that ilk, then all of a sudden you you're looking at six, seven players that you might need to cover, which could put you in a world of hurt.
00:50:25
Caleb
and Yeah, so yeah, if you I mean even if you got even if you got four that's four rookies that you're gonna that youre gonnat need to cover with and that's And the thing is as well with with buyers is that a lot of the time I think it's like people are so set on having you know, 2021 22 playing or yeah on on their field but Like for me last year, for example, like one one of my rookies, my 22nd rookie or 21st, whatever it was, was Aaron Cadman and like, he's not going to count anyway. So I think it's important to also.
00:51:03
Caleb
take into account the quality of your players that you're going to have covering, not just the quantity. um Yeah, because there's no point counting Aaron Cabinet in your best 22 when he's going to dish off a 20 and going to drop out anyway kind of thing. So that might have to be a consideration when choosing how many of those round, round three guys to start is what What will their covers score and are they actually a realistic chance of counting or do you need to try and distribute the early buy around players that you do pick so that um the quality of rookies that you will have covering the score is better? If that makes sense.
00:51:46
Holmesy
Yeah. So let's say, so all of those rookies, except for Coleman, who's a bit cheaper sort of fall between that 600 to 800 K range.
00:51:54
Caleb
Hmm.
00:51:54
Holmesy
So let's say you don't like a lot of those options or you do, but you're only willing to pick maybe one or two because of where their buy falls. There's been talk and it's real, the at the moment at least, where a lot of the top line defenders don't seem to present a lot of value, like Shezel potentially does.
00:52:12
Holmesy
But with his role change, we we are yet to see where he's going to line up. So until we see that, we're just speculating. But then you've got Zorko, who's another year older, um also has the early buy.
00:52:23
Holmesy
You've got Whitfield off the back of a career high, also with the early buy. Then you're looking at Flanders, also with an early buy.
00:52:28
Caleb
land is yeah
00:52:30
Holmesy
So if we're not willing to spend up in the 600 to 800k range and then the rookies typically don't score that well in defence, but we're also a little bit tentative about paying up, what are we going to do?
00:52:39
Caleb
yes
00:52:42
Holmesy
where where Where's your head at here?
00:52:44
Caleb
sounds terrible doesn't it yeah um Yeah, that's tough. um
00:52:54
Caleb
My initial reaction to that would be Maybe it's okay to, or see if you can find some value in one of those top line guys. I know we talked a lot of a lot about some of them, but um ah Jaden Shaw, I don't think has the early buyer this year. No, he's a little bit over 800, but he could he could present some value there. So he could be one guy um to look at. um Who's there?
00:53:25
Caleb
Anyone else?
00:53:27
Holmesy
There are names, right? So like a Colby McCurcher, second year breakout, if he's in defense, um could be interesting.
00:53:28
Caleb
Yeah.
00:53:35
Holmesy
Sicily is also has an early buy, but how that Hawthorne backline shapes up, if he's back to being that intercept defender, then he's his's value on what he did the year before.
00:53:41
Caleb
Yeah.
00:53:45
Holmesy
Not advocating for picking these players, but there are there are names, but would you advocate sort of spending up and going a little bit heavier in defense if you don't like these sort of names? and Would this be an instance where, you know, normally if you're picking a player at that sort of 90 price point, you're you're kind of hoping that they'd push a hundred and and be a bit of value. But would this be an instance where maybe you're only looking for sort of five to seven points just to to get a shakeout to see how the season starts and then you look to see who the value defenders are?
00:54:14
Caleb
I think so. Yeah. Um, cause there's still, there would, there's still opportunity to, if you don't start with guys like Mills and Roberts, there's still opportunity where you could jump up, jump on them after they're by this still might present some value. Um, I think if you pay up for a defender such as she's or Whitfield, then that also plays into the captaincy talk as well. They could be an option there.
00:54:44
Caleb
I don't exactly know um yeah how much value is going to be in Schiesl and Whitfield. I think natural progression for Schiesl and having that midfield role, if that gets locked in and if he can continue to um add elements to his game and really have an all-round fantasy game, then I think there can certainly be upside to him, even if it is just five points.
00:55:13
Caleb
it If you don't like those guys and that's 600 to 800K range, then yeah, I'd probably be happy to pay up ah for Sheezel for some of those reasons. um Yeah.
00:55:24
Holmesy
Yeah, and 40% of the comp, 40% of the comp are thinking the same way. I, yeah, she's just so interesting.
00:55:28
Caleb
Yeah.
00:55:30
Holmesy
Like I looked at, so his stats when he went into the midfield after round eight or whatever it was, I think he averaged 105 across the board, but there was also some times where he was only getting minimal CBAs and and playing forwards.
00:55:37
Caleb
Hmm.
00:55:42
Holmesy
And although that ah didn't translate to a 110 plus scoring he still he can still score wherever he plays and if he comes out and he's an 80 midfielder next year and it's him alongside LDU he he could be anything he could be the type of player that you don't think his value on 112 but if he gets off to a 120 start across the first month you better believe everyone's going to trade into him and then that's what you've spoken about how you've
00:55:55
Caleb
Yeah.
00:56:06
Holmesy
you've locked in those points and then you're able to get the next guy. So Shesil is definitely one to to monitor. And if I was going to pay out for anyone in the defence, I think it would be it would be him.
00:56:16
Holmesy
I just want to see how it shakes out in in those practice games first.
00:56:20
Caleb
Yeah, I think so for me too. I traded him out last year when he moved forward and he was just amazing still, just kept scoring. It was impressive to watch. He's obviously a gun. And yeah, he was doing some of that whilst just playing high half forward.
00:56:33
Caleb
So if he can, yeah, maybe add some more tackles and stuff playing inside mid, then yeah, you're right.
00:56:41
Holmesy
could Could be anything.
00:56:41
Caleb
He could, he could go to that next level. Yep. Yep.
00:56:44
Holmesy
Yep. All right, I'm mindful for time because you've been very generous, but I want to finish off with the rocks just because it's a a bit of a contentious talking point so far in this preseason. So because of what I mentioned before about us having value in other lines, it's it's meaning that we've got cash to spend. And some coaches are considering paying up big in the rocks. So some coaches are saying that they believe Cherry and Marshall are going to be the clear one and two of what they've seen last year and and previous year. So they're happy to spend up.
00:57:15
Holmesy
are set and forget knowing that they they think they've got the two best scorers in the ruck that are both captain options that they can captain each and every week. um And they're not going to have to worry about trades in the ruck unless they get injured. But there's the first camp. We've got the second camp where people are looking to to spend up for one of the big dogs, whether it be a cherry or a marshal for that captain option. And then they're looking at a value play such as a Tom DeConning, Sean Darcy,
00:57:40
Holmesy
other other option, maybe even a team English. And then there's the other camp where it's purely value. How are you looking at the Ruck options at the moment and what are your sort of thoughts with the the different strategies?
00:57:54
Caleb
Yeah, I, I have, oh, when I was looking before, I put both Marshall and Sherry in there for now. Um, I think Darcy certainly had an injury affected with year last year and it's probably under priced because of that. If Dokoni can get, um, his time without pit net, then he can certainly be good, but I feel like there's,
00:58:22
Caleb
always uncertainty around that. And he could, even if he starts the season without Pitnett, Pitnett could come in at any moment. And the other one you said, oh, it was English. Yeah. um And we know what he can do. He's done it before in the past, capable of 110, but wasn't quite at that at that level last year. I anticipate even though I have both Sherry and Marshall there now, I anticipate that I will probably go with one of those value options. But in saying that if I do have a bit of cash leftover, then that could be the spot where I look to um spend up and start with both of them because of what you were saying, you know, hopefully have them the whole year and it it saves trades and saves you having to worry about, excuse me, worry about a spot that is traditionally, um yeah, bit troublesome for people.
00:59:18
Holmesy
Does starting the Darcy TDK combo scare you off a little bit?
00:59:25
Caleb
Yeah, I think it would. um
00:59:30
Caleb
Yes. ah I don't really have much more to say to that other than yes, I think it would scare me off a bit. I think I would like the security of having one of those top guys, knowing that I only then have to upgrade one other guy to the one I don't, the other premium I don't start.
00:59:48
Caleb
um And it's hard. Yeah. In injury, injury. Prone is, is an interesting concept, but yeah, you'd hate to get stuck with Darcy because then it can be tricky to then go up.
01:00:07
Caleb
You may not have, you may not be ready to go up to someone and you might get stuck in a bit of a ah loop, just trading mid priced Rockman around.
01:00:17
Holmesy
Yeah.
01:00:18
Caleb
Yeah.
01:00:18
Holmesy
Yeah. Yeah. Especially if it happens, you know, around sort of six to six to 10, but that's, that's where it gets tricky because that's your, that's the upgrade season as, as people like to call it.
01:00:29
Holmesy
And it's very crucial because if you get stuck behind everyone else upgrading, you're a week behind, then, then you're in trouble. You really need to be in front of it. And that was one of my big learnings last year from Luke Jackson, where I started Luke Jackson knowing that Sean Darcy was Worst case scenario, he was going to be, you know, eight, eight weeks away.
01:00:48
Holmesy
So best case scenario for me would, was that he was going to come back around round eight, but worst case was he was back around four and round five. And then if you're looking to get off Luke Jackson at that point in the season, when everyone else is looking to upgrade, then that's where you fall behind.
01:01:01
Holmesy
So yeah, that would be the risk with the the value rocks, but something's just, something's just bringing me towards it. I don't know whether it's there the car or bust mentality and and wanting to take a risk, but I think they, they both present value if
01:01:08
Caleb
and
01:01:15
Holmesy
Darcy, especially if he can if he can be fit from here.
01:01:17
Caleb
Yeah. Yeah.
01:01:18
Holmesy
ah but There was the update on social media just then that he is back in full training. So if he can get a clean bill of health from here, then I think he presents value. But yeah, very, very interesting talking points.
01:01:28
Holmesy
And and although it's its middle middle of January, there's still plenty to play out. So Caleb,
Conclusion and Contact Info
01:01:33
Holmesy
thank you. Thank you so much for jumping on. You've been a huge value. I always learn so much after talking to to good coaches like yourself.
01:01:40
Holmesy
So Not that active on the socials, but where can our listeners find you if they want to have a bit of a fantasy chat with? I think the stat went out there that you're the most you are the most successful coach ah over the last three years in terms of overall rank consistency.
01:01:53
Holmesy
So surely you get involved on the socials a bit and start to to give a bit away.
01:01:54
Caleb
Yeah,
01:01:57
Caleb
so yeah that was that was interesting with that ke when that came out. It was a bit find bit weird to hear that, but um yeah, just on Twitter, at Dominators is my handle just after my team name. Not very active, but yeah, I suppose if you wanted to send me a message, then ah I'd be happy to answer it.
01:02:15
Holmesy
Mate, just like, uh, Warnie likes to get in the DMs of all the the winners after they interview him on the podcast. I'm sure you'll be hearing ah a lot more from me, mate. So make sure you've got the, got the socials open. But yeah, thanks. Thanks again for jumping on. Guys, if you aren't following us on Twitter, we are at Pod Pod AFL and I'm at Homsey Heroes.
01:02:33
Holmesy
Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify or Apple podcast or wherever you listen to your content. And if you could leave us a rating and review to get us rolling again, that would be greatly appreciated. We'll be back on Monday, continuing our positional previews. I think we're going with the forward. So tune in for that, but have a great weekend and we'll be back soon. soon
01:02:52
Caleb
Thank you.