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Holmesy’s Best 22!!! #PODPOD
3.3k Plays18 days ago
On this episode, Holmesy and Harmey discuss all the hot topics and injuries before doing a deep dive on Holmesy’s AFL Fantasy best 22.
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Transcript
AFL Season Preview and Team Selection Challenges
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod, it's Holmsey here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Monday 3rd of February. That's right, we're into February. The practice matches are just around the corner, which means the AFL season is about a month from kicking off, which is such an exciting time for the AFL Fantasy community. Join me as always. I am joined by my co-host, two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019, Hami. Thanks for jumping on, mate. How are you going?
00:00:47
Jon Harmey
Yep, going well, thanks, host, Holmesy. Been keeping an eye on, I don't think we're gonna have too many players left by the start of the season with the way the injuries are cutting hard in the list at the minute.
00:00:58
Holmesy
Yeah, we're going to get straight into the into the hot topics, but you are right. It does seem that the there's been a lot of relevant players go go down so far in this preseason, maybe more than normal, or maybe just because um the the preseason is being monitored and watched more than ever, that we're but kind of seeing a lot more than we normally would. But these injuries, a lot of them are quite serious. Harmony, is it deterring you from picking some of these players which we're going to get into?
00:01:24
Jon Harmey
I don't want to sound like cruel or whatever, but so I actually quite like it. Throwing a few changes into um teams, you know, lineups and having them, you know, less similar. I actually quite like some of that as we sort of lead into round one.
00:01:41
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I do agree with that. And we're going to get straight into our, into our hot topics. And the first one we'll touch on. It's, ah it's widely known now. It's been about a week, but we haven't recorded since the news went down. So, Matthias Philippou, unfortunate news for him. um Stress fractures in his femur, which is a little bit unheard of. So, he's going to be out at least for the start
Injury Impact on North Melbourne's Midfield
00:02:02
Holmesy
of the season. They're talking sort of three months from now and they're going to have to build him up in the, in the VFL to get him back.
00:02:07
Holmesy
to full fitness as well. So what's that going to do to our forward line, Tommy? Have you had a bit of a play around? of yeah Have you looked to go up? Have you looked to stay around that same price point? What do you what are your initial thoughts?
00:02:18
Jon Harmey
Yeah, i um I went like for like, so just straight swap from Filippo across to Hugo Garcia in the Saints midfield there.
00:02:27
Holmesy
I was, I was going to open with an, with an apology, Hami. It seemed like our Sia is, potentially Brad bringing his way into our, into our sides, but in all honesty, I mean, without seeing any games, potentially is a bit of a, a like for life. They are pretty thin in that midfield and they are going to look for options. He, he does become a ah genuine play for us if he's going to be there in round one, doesn't he?
00:02:49
Jon Harmey
Yeah, ah look, I guess we'll see. I mean, he was borderline best 23 last year at the Saints. So we'll have to see what's changed over the off season for him, um you know, with the personal changes and and with his own sort of training. But yeah, i what I actually did, I did a bit of a reshuffle all around. I moved a few players. So I guess as yeah as you talk through um some others on the injury list, um I actually had to flick a few out of my team.
Preseason Setbacks for Key Players
00:03:19
Holmesy
Yeah, and the other the other big one is teammates. So, Roland Marshall, there was a lot of talk about the set and forgetting in preseason, which is pretty much done and dusted, at least from picking Marshall. I think it would be a brave coach to start Roland Marshall off the back of his pretty big interrupted part of his preseason um stress fractures of his pelvis. So, it's not like he's going to be doing lots of running and and staying fit. He's going to be off his legs and and, ah yeah, struggling a bit. So,
00:03:45
Holmesy
That rules him out, unfortunately, but was he someone you were considering in the rock line?
00:03:50
Jon Harmey
Oh yeah, no, look, I wasn't lying. Then we had our Ruck podcast and I was aiming for a set and forget structure there with both Cherry and Marshall. So yeah, I guess when we you know get a bit later on in the pod, perhaps we'll have a chat about whether there is an option for set and forget um this season still, or whether that's now just out the door, because I can't see him playing early in the season. And even if he was named round zero, I don't think he could take the risk at his price point.
00:04:21
Holmesy
Yeah, so it's a ah watch and see there.
Opportunities Amidst Collingwood's Injuries
00:04:23
Holmesy
Now, some big news out of North Melbourne, George Wardlaw, their big young talent, ah serious hamstring issue out for 10 to 12. And we don't know how that's going to line up in terms of him actually getting back into the side. I would think they're going to have to build his loads up in the VFL and give him some time. so What does that midfield mix look like now for North Melbourne? There's been a a Luke Parker ah talk being sort of thrown in there that he's going to have a bit more midfield time now. There's a there's a Jai Simpkin. Clearly, it's going to be LDU and Chisel, hopefully as the two main guys. But how do you see that North Melbourne midfield lining up now without Wardlow, who was such an important part for them last year?
00:05:01
Jon Harmey
Yeah, well, let's just have a look at the top six midfielders from North from last year. where we So they had LDU, number one, Ward Law, Will Phillips, so jeez, maybe that's tag all the time, Jai Simken, Tom Powell, and Sizel.
00:05:18
Jon Harmey
I guess you throw Parker in the mix there. um And it's a combination of all of those guys. I can't really see anybody else um coming into the mix. So it's just a matter of what the balance is between those guys. But yeah, from the track reports, I guess you'd you'd say that Parker is potentially there. But I quite liked the idea of Simcon going back in there and being available as a forward, um potentially having a bit of upside for us in our fantasy sites.
00:05:45
Holmesy
Do you think, now, he's not relevant for us in fantasy being mid-only, but do you think it opens the door for ah Tom Powell to go in there and take more responsibility? I think they quite like you Tom Powell, and he was one that was kind of thrown ah thrown around a little bit last year. He had bulk mid-time early, but then he found himself on the half-back. All reports are that he's he's training the house down. Do you think it's time for him to take a bit more responsibility, or do you think they'll go to the old older stalwarts in Parker and Simpkin?
00:06:11
Jon Harmey
Well, I don't know. I just didn't i have sort of seen a bit about that, but I didn't feel like Tom Powell was a like for like replacement for Wardlaw because Wardlaw is more that sort of in and under um grunt player as sort of when power went out.
00:06:27
Jon Harmey
but sort of around the same time as when Sheezel went in. So it sort of felt like um they wanted that quicker, more outside midfielder, and that just ended up being Sheezel. So then to put power back in, I just feel like it wasn't a very like for like replacement with Wardlaw, and it probably makes a little bit more sense why they would go with Parker, your bigger body, maybe a bit of a defensive role at times. So yeah, I'm not, I wouldn't have thought that it'd be power, but who knows?
00:06:56
Holmesy
Is the park a price point at like, ah I think it's low 80s. I don't have the exact number off the top of my head due to the the discount being off the the previous season's average. Do you think, is he and is he an option for us? Do you think a 32 year old Luke Parker can still go 90 plus or do you think he might have a small bump but it's not going to be ah a big enough bump for us?
00:07:17
Jon Harmey
ah now look I think he's priced around 80 and I don't think he's going to be 100 top player so yeah ah and also then there's role uncertainty, he's age I think there's probably a few too many knocks to um think that he's going to be this smash pick but i who knows like Zorgo did it last year didn't he?
00:07:38
Holmesy
Yep, yep, exactly right. And now big watch in the practice matches to see who's going to be the beneficiary. i I would assume that if Luke Parker is in there a lot during the practice matches, that's how that's how they would ah line up. I don't think ah North Melbourne's mucking around too much. So big watch there.
Frio's Strategy Affected by Bolton's Injury
00:07:55
Holmesy
A big one for our Frio boys, unfortunately, it sounds like Shai Bolton's had a bit of a calf injury. Now, I haven't seen any timeline on his return as of yet, but that's another, another injury for Frio and he's going to play a pretty important role for them moving forward. Before the injury, was he someone that you were potentially looking at as an underpriced potential top six forward or do you think coming to Frio is going to be more of that X factor forward and have less mid-time than he did at Richmond who were struggling?
00:08:24
Jon Harmey
Yeah, probably the latter there. I think that he's probably a guy that's worth having a stab on in a draft league. But for classic, I just feel like he'd be more stay-at-home forward. And um yeah, he I just didn't believe the in key was very underpriced. No.
00:08:39
Holmesy
Another, another calf injury and this one's Adam Trelore. So, it's come out that Trelore is missing 8 to 12 with a, with a calf injury and I suppose the concerning thing for Trelore is it's not like it's a, a fresh calf injury and he's done a lot of running in the preseason so far. It sounds like he's been hampered all the way through and hasn't really got going. So, this is going to open the door for someone to come in and take those CBAs that he's um had over the last two years. And we know Bevo runs a tight rotation. So the question I have for you, is it going to be your Tassie boy, Riley Sanders coming in to assume that role in the midfield or is Bevo going to do Bevo things and and keep it and throw a Kennedy in there and and these players that he seems to fall in love with?
00:09:21
Jon Harmey
yeah toss a coin on that one who whod know right that I find this really interesting, the Trillore one, and I'll tell you why. So he he was the number one um CBA attending mid for the Bulldogs last year, averaged 110 points. So that's a lot of points there to go somewhere. um Just with this one, I was looking at some track reports and I saw that JJ was off the back flank and and going well. Now he's gone down too. So I sort of, is there a compound effect here because
00:09:52
Jon Harmey
they need a good backflank. Perhaps that's Richards and then it does open the door for a Sanders or Kennedy in the midfield to fill the gap. But yeah, look with Babbo, maybe they just put Richards in. But look with the Bulldogs last year, I think the year before was the same, they have Trillor, Bont and Libba and it's a very tight three and anything outside of that, they get very low CVAs anyway. So yeah, there's a real opportunity there and that's one to watch um when they have their pre-season game.
00:10:23
Holmesy
with 110 points going out of that midfielder at least to start. Does this interest you more in starting a Marcus Montempelli who's down from that 117 he did the year before, still priced at 107, so quite high, but surely, surely that opens the door for him to take you know a little bit more. he He already takes a lot of responsibility as it is, but with Treloar not being in there, you which you would assume anyone else but Bevo that he's just going to be that full-time midfielder and and putting the team on his back early.
00:10:51
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I really like Bont as an option, but I mean, so Trelore averaged 110 last year. I think he was the highest averaging midfielder, is that right, Holmesy? So, yeah, so Bont's got to have a pretty damn good season.
00:11:02
Holmesy
Yep.
00:11:06
Jon Harmey
And then that's only three points upside sort of thing. So it's not as if he's a bargain and at priced at 170. So, look, I think he's not a bad option and hopefully a bit less chance of him being rested forward, which is always the,
00:11:20
Jon Harmey
Bizarre sort of scenes and when you had the Bulldogs playing last year, I just sat there for a quarter So look maybe but you know what's what would be a smash pick 112 so five points upside I don't know if it's really necessarily something that we're going to be chasing hard
00:11:38
Holmesy
last one before we get into our the meat of our podcast today. So this one's fresh off, but Jordan de Goey. Now, not fantasy relevant himself, but there was talk last week that he potentially had a bit of a cough or a leg injury and it's it's come out that he's got a bit of bone bruising and he's going to be on ah a modified program.
00:11:56
Holmesy
ah for the next little bit of the preseason. Now, we already know that Tom Mitchell struggling to get up for round round zero. It's looking like he's a long way away and and they've been talked with Daikos in this plantar fascia injury. With Collingwood's midfield being so depleted, does this open the door for a Harry Perriman to play predominantly midfield in a good role earlier? In the match seems the other day he was playing predominantly mid. Admittedly, there are two midfields, but does this interest you in ah a Harry Perriman a little bit more?
00:12:26
Jon Harmey
Absolutely, it does. Yep, a few days ago I put him in my back line because I just thought well, there's no way he's not playing in the midfield. um even Even as the defensive midfield, he's got to be a bit under priced. What's he priced at? Yeah, below 70s. So 74. So at the moment, very interested and and we could that get that look around zero and he should have a um ah consistent role there with ah in that game. So I guess we'll keep an eye on that one, mate. But yes, I am interested.
00:12:59
Holmesy
Yep, definite round zero watch. Now, before we get into the rest of the podcast, just a reminder that this episode is brought to you by Magic Sports and their product Slider is a new way to play draft in 2025.
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00:13:13
Holmesy
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Holmesy
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00:14:02
Holmesy
harmy what we're going to do today. We've decided to go through a best 22 podcast, so we're going to go through my best 22 defenders, midfielders, rucks and forwards, and you've got your sort of list too there so we can bounce some ideas off each other. Now we know we're not necessarily looking to start too many of these best 22 players. If you can get some of them under priced, then that's a good result for your starting team but they are definitely relevant because whether we like it or not these are the highest scoring players in the competition and you are going to be looking to get them in sooner rather than later so very important to put these on the radar so that's why we're going to go through this today so we're going to start with the defenders and we'll spend a little bit more time on some players than others
00:14:45
Holmesy
First off, ah at D1, I have Harry Schiezel. Now, this isn't anything new. um A lot of coaches have been talking about Harry Schiezel as being the D1 for 2025. Admittedly, a lot of us were talking about Doherty two years ago in the same role, um and that didn't work out. But Harry Schiezel um We've seen what he's done in his first two years of the competition, came in as a defender, averaged extremely well in his first year and and started the year going 125 last year before moving into the midfield, which he went at 105 for the rest of the year, which is still very good numbers. So there's talk of him training with the midfield. You'd hope that he's going to have that sort of 50% CBA plus role, pinch hitting forward a little bit at times as well, which he can score.
00:15:30
Holmesy
I can't see him being worse than that sort of 103, 105 with the potential to push that 110 mark. Army, but are you on board with Harry Scheisel at D1?
00:15:38
Jon Harmey
Yeah, yep. Yeah, I am. And um yeah, I think most of you points are spot on there, mate. But I guess from a classic perspective, potentially a bit of downside as well. But yeah, don't mind your range. um And yeah, D1.
00:15:52
Holmesy
Beautiful. We'll move on to D2. And I've got Lockie Whitfield now. he's He's an interesting one because if we talk about market share of kickouts, I think he had about 150 kickouts last year, which was right up there with Luke Ryan as as numbers that were absolutely off the chart.
00:16:05
Jon Harmey
wo
00:16:07
Holmesy
so I suppose there is potential there for a bit of a decline if they decide to split those up a little bit more in terms of Locky Ash maybe having a few more and and splitting them around. But if his role stays the same, I can't see Locky Whitfield dropping off too much. you know A 1.12 average is is very hard to maintain. but if we're talking about a D2 range, I can't see him being worse than that sort of low hundreds guy with with the ability to push even higher. We saw he he started pretty slow. I think he was a 90-ish average for the first six rounds and then went at 120 or whatever it was post-buy with some some monsters. So, Locky Whitfield, not someone we're looking to start in our squads, unfortunately, with that ah early round buy in round two, but
00:16:50
Holmesy
ah coaches deciding when to get on him could get a serious leg up if they decide to go there early and and he gets those ceiling games and everyone's then chasing that. So Locky Whitfield at D2, sorry.
00:17:03
Holmesy
D3 is where I'm a little bit sort of interesting because I don't have, I haven't seen many coaches have this guy that high, but I've actually got Jack Sinclair at D3.
00:17:03
Jon Harmey
Yep. Yep.
00:17:12
Holmesy
It's more of a safe pick, but for the last three years, he's been a 102 averaging player and we've seen him go on these runs where he's, you know, average 106, 108, 110 post-buy. Usually it coincides with ah a pretty big run at Marvel Stadium, which he's got early.
00:17:26
Holmesy
So if you can get him off to a hot start, Maybe there's some points upside. Maybe he drops off a little bit. I'm not too sure.
Fantasy Implications of Player Fitness and Roles
00:17:33
Holmesy
But with some of the other players' roles a little bit more uncertain, I'm happy to put him in there at D3. But what are you thinking with Jack Sinclair?
00:17:41
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I feel the Sheezel and Whitfield are probably in a tier of their own, as in those two are probably a step above Sinclair Just, but I actually had Sinclair D32, so um I think you've got to, yep, you're pretty right there. Home's eat.
00:17:56
Holmesy
He's one of those players that he scores no matter where he goes. If he's off half back, he scores well. If he goes into the midfield, he scores pretty much the same now with Filippo being out. um maybe Maybe he does have to play a little bit more midfield early. That's going to be a bit of ah a pre-season round one watch, but I think he's as safe as option as any at this point in time to to picking your side with potential, you know, three, four, five points of upside, but um maybe just paying with what you get. But yeah, Jack Sinclair at D3. Now, Flanders at D4 is interesting because I feel like he has a pretty wide range of outcomes. And yeah there was some news, actually, I forgot to mention it in our Hot Topics, but it sounds like he's been dealing with a bit of a back issue so far this preseason. He hasn't done a lot of work and he's on a bit of ah a modified program.
00:18:45
Holmesy
When he moved into the midfield, it clearly his scores dropped off from what they were as a defender. Do you see him as being the sort of M3 behind Anderson and Raoul and really having enough midfield time to push that 100 to 105? Or do you feel he's going to be a 95 to 100 guy playing a little bit more forward? What are you thinking with Flanders?
00:19:06
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I think my conservative approach has got him where you have got him, but there's a chance of this guy, I mean, he's a high accumulating midfielder, a gun midfielder. There's a chance that he he goes past those guys, you know, and he ends up being a D1. He could be 115, you know, if he got the plumb roll, took, gets pushed to the forward line a bit or onto the wing, you know, there there is a chance that he could end up being the best performing defender in the comp.
00:19:37
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. ah Once again, that early buy and now this injury rules him out as ah as a starting option for us. But yeah, the savvy coach that gets on him at the right time, I feel is going to potentially have a leg up on the competition. Hami D5, I've got Nick Martin now.
00:19:56
Holmesy
I feel like he has a pretty wide range of outcomes as well, so it's ah a bit of a safe place to have him. But what are you thinking in terms of being a Bombers fan? Where do you see him lining up this year? Is it going to be back on the wing? Is it going to be as a center bounce midfielder? Is it going to be an Errol Goulden type that just has the ability to roam all around the field and rack up the ball at will? What do you think with Nick Martin?
00:20:17
Jon Harmey
It has been lining up wherever um wherever they need him, wherever it suits the team, which doesn't necessarily lend itself to massive fantasy scores. So not as hot on Martin this year because I don't think he's going to be chipping it around the back line, taking kick-ins and playing that sort of a role that he did last year. so wing forward both very good um positions for the Essendon a senior team but not necessarily for our fantasy side so probably not quite as hot um as you are here.
00:20:50
Holmesy
Yep. and And that's completely fair. He's been someone that scored pretty well wherever he plays, but you are right. If he does play a little bit more wing forward, then then maybe we see more back towards that sort of 90 to 95 range that we've seen him in the past. But at this point in time, I'm happy to have him there. And a bit of disrespect here, but Dane Zorko rounding out my defensive line at D6,
00:21:13
Holmesy
um you know 110 average last year was incredible at his age. I can't see too much changing for him at least to start the season. um I know there's been a lot of talk about you know how does Coleman affect him coming back in but all Australian defender off the back of a premiership, another year contract trying to chase another flag. I can't see Brisbane changing too much There was the 180 outlier game where they played Gold Coast and they had no one to sub off the ground because they were injured. So he just played 100% time on ground and they just chipped around. So you take that out and maybe he regresses back a little bit. Zorko, can you see too much changing?
00:21:55
Jon Harmey
If it changes, it goes down. It doesn't go up, does it? I mean, maybe maybe he just does what we all thought he was going to do last year and be injured for half a season. I mean, he's 35 years old, isn't he? So, yeah, look, you've got him at D6, but you'd be a sort of ah a game um draft coach to be taking him as the D6 and towards the pointy end, I reckon.
00:22:18
Holmesy
I agree there, Hami. So I've got Martin and Zorko at five and six that you don't seem that hot on. So why don't you let us know who you've got sitting around that mark.
00:22:27
Jon Harmey
Yeah, all right, I'll give you two players that I can see aren't there who I'm quite interested in. Wangani Malira, I'd have him probably above Martin and Zorko at the moment. I think that um the Saints rely on him. He's ah a younger player on the rise um and they look for him every opportunity that they can. So I think that he's one that's definitely um worth a look. The other one that I would make a mention of and I'd probably have, ahead of Zorko potentially, is Callum Mills, who I genuinely believe is going to be midfielder this season. And if he is, I think there's more chance that he could average 100 over Zorko. So I think that Mills is definitely somebody that we should be looking at there.
00:23:18
Holmesy
Yeah, I do ah do agree with that. Do you you feel that the Saints might want Wangany Miller to play a little bit more forward and have the ball delivered inside 50 a little bit more and and being a bit more dangerous? Or can you see his role staying exactly the same as it was and and being that general off half back with Sinclair?
00:23:36
Jon Harmey
I think it worked pretty well at times last season. I think the Saints backline is a bit of a waste lane, so if they can get Sinclair and Wang and Emileira taking most of the ball out of that backline, I think that um that'll probably place them well.
00:23:51
Holmesy
Two other players that I just had in the mix, we won't talk about, but Max Holmes after his breakout in 2024, another year training in the midfield, another year getting fitter and and being healthy, there's no reason I can say that he won't average that sort of 98 to 100 mark that he was pre-buy last year, although adding in Bailey Smith um might change things a little bit there. And and Dan Houston at Collingwood, I still believe that he could have a career year in that Collingwood backline, although we're yet to see it harming.
00:24:21
Jon Harmey
Yeah, probably um one other player who you don't have mentioned there, Holmes, he certainly is so be there's going to be seeing a hell of a lot of ball in the Richmond backline this season, I expect, and that's Jayden Short.
00:24:34
Holmesy
Yep, yeah, I agree with that. ah the The six players I had ah ah had all averaging, you know, 100 plus, and I think, sure, you know, maybe he can go 100, but I think maybe is that sort of 96 to 99 player. But yeah, I agree. He should definitely be in the mix there. All right, moving to the midfield. Now, these are a little bit vanilla and you can kind of throw a blanket over a lot of these players as they are all guns and they can all go big on their day. First one I have at M1 is Nick Daikos now.
00:25:04
Holmesy
he's He's an interesting one. I think he's had such a good start to his career, but the attention is just going to keep coming for him. he's He's going to have a tough time in the midfield moving forward. ah Clubs are going to be doing everything that they can to to quell his influence. I think it's kind of a little bit like Tom Green, where if you stop Nick Dacos, you go a hell of a long way to stopping Collingwood. but I can't see him being worse than the 104 that he's priced at now and he's got the potential to be that 112 plus player. So that ranks him pretty highly for me. Yes, there's ah a bit of a worry with this foot issue at the moment, but he's a he's a true professional and I have no doubt he'll be fit and firing um come round zero harmi. But do you have Daikos at M1 or do you have someone else?
00:25:48
Jon Harmey
have somebody else at M1 but I do love Daikos, I mean he's a footage jet, fantasy jet, it is um yeah he's great to watch and he could very well be the M1 and the highest so scoring player really.
00:26:03
Holmesy
Yeah, and I would definitely be looking at starting in if i if they didn't have the early round by. So definitely happy to have Daikos there and would be probably one of the first midfielders I draft on draft day two. At M2, I have Errol Goulden.
00:26:20
Holmesy
This one's interesting because if we are predicting Callum Mills to be back in the midfield and average close to 100, like you think, Hami, then those points have to go somewhere. They can't all score. Maybe Heaney comes back a little bit. I'm not too sure, but Errol Goulden's been an absolute fantasy pig for the better half of two years now since he really burst onto the scene.
00:26:39
Holmesy
um He has that perfect role where he runs all day on the wing, getting the outside ball, but then gets to pinch it at the CBAs and and loves the tackle as well. So Errol Goulden, I'm happy to rank at M2 at this stage. M3, I have, where are we? Andy Brayshaw.
00:26:56
Holmesy
Once again, this one's interesting. There was talk last year for the first little portion of the season that he was kind of playing a little bit more on the wing and a little bit outside of the contest, but we saw him post-buy. I think he averaged 109 post-buy. He was back to being inside mid more, being more at the contest, getting more in and under, but also spreading for those marks. so If Caleb Saron continues to get the attention, if Hayden Young continues to get the attention and and moves forward, then there's a definite pathway for Andy Braeschau to get back to the 110-112 that we've seen over the the previous two seasons. So I do like Andy Braeschau. Do you have any comments on those two players?
00:27:32
Jon Harmey
ah I'm probably a bit cooler on Gordon than what you are. I think there's probably more wing time than CBA time for him this season. And Andy Brayshaw, I mean, everything that we're hearing is really positive, isn't it? You know, you would expect that he's turf-tailed, whatever it was last year, and he's and being pushed out to the wing for five to be playing in the midfield. I think they're a bit behind him and there is, um you know, he's out of contract. They'll be looking after him. I think that he should be in for a really good season.
00:28:01
Holmesy
Now, M4, Marcus Bontempelli, I'll admit i've I've actually bumped him up a few. I didn't have him quite this high, but with the news that Adam Trelore, like I mentioned, is going to be missing at least the start of the season, I think that opens up some extra scoring for for Bont. We've seen him go 117 the year before. he's He's got all the tools to be the highest player highest averaging player in the comp.
00:28:23
Holmesy
um And he deserves to be up there with the best. Maybe, maybe he plays a little bit more forward with the Jamara news. um And if there's a few injuries, he's always been a little bit of a stopgap forward, but that hasn't really stopped his scoring. Maybe not to the elite levels, but Marcus Montempelli, I have at M4 and I'm happy that with him there. Zach Merritt at M5, I think you know what you're going to get with Zach Merritt. He's just a very good player.
00:28:48
Holmesy
but you know, averaging 107 plus for 10 out of the 11 years he's been in the comp or whatever those stats are incredible. And, you know, maybe some of the the younger Essendon midfielders get better, which means that he plays a little bit less of a role, but we have been saying that for years and and Zach Merritt just keeps getting it done. So I'm very interested to see how he goes, but I think he is a worthy N5 Army.
00:29:12
Jon Harmey
Yep, so Merritt averaged 109 last season and then he went to the US for a training camp, Holmsey. So for me, M1 this season.
00:29:26
Holmesy
There you go. Heard it here first. And and that's okay. um i'm I'm happy with that as well. I've i've had him up higher in previous ah draft editions as well. I just, yeah, he's, you keep thinking that Parrish is going to come back and score and Caldwell is going to get better. And you know, you throw Setterfield in there maybe and and some others, but yeah, he's he's just a very, very good player. And yeah, the training camp, I didn't know that harm me. So fair enough.
00:29:50
Holmesy
At M6, I have Jordan Dawson. Now, Dawson has such a ah wide variety of outcomes. I think if it could be guaranteed that he was going to be that 70, 75, 80% CBA mid, then he he's going to be up there with the highest player, highest averaging player in the comp. No doubt about it. He tackles, he gets the ball on the outside. He's just a very good player. But do you think, Hami, that the addition of Crouch just reduces his scoring too much?
00:30:18
Jon Harmey
I don't know if it's necessarily crouch but the competition and the uncertainty with the midfield for Adelaide does have me a little bit worried so I think you've got him about right where you have him at the moment. I mean if he had everything, like if he had it all on his terms he could be the number one scoring player in the game but I just feel like it's not going to be the case for him.
00:30:44
Holmesy
agree there. And we're still yet to see how the the new additions of Pete Ling and Angus Neil Bullen and and Rankin potentially taking a step forward is going to affect Jordan Dawson does seem to be Adelaide's Mr Fix It, which is not ideal for fantasy. At M7, I have Tom Green. We all know about his injury last year, so getting subbed on that seven and then having four games where he had low time on ground and wasn't really himself. So you take that injured game out and he's a 104 and we've seen him average 108, 109 in the past as well. So M7 I feel is about right for Tom Green. He still is the number one man in that GWS midfield, which means he is the tag target, but
00:31:25
Holmesy
He has to do so much work in the inside of the contest, and with Whitfield taking up all that outside ball, maybe he he doesn't get around the ground as much as he did in 2023, but he's still going to be one of the premier midfielders in the comp. And lastly, at M8, I have Zach Butters. Zach Butters is just a very good fantasy player. He gets it on the inside. He gets it on the outside. He kicks goals. He's just well-rounded.
00:31:50
Holmesy
With Jason Orn-Francis emerging, does that take a bit of his scoring? Does that mean that he's now the second tag target, which means he can get off the chain a little bit more? I'm not too sure, but ah Zach Budders is always someone I've loved and and loved owning. And I think M8, M9 is about right for him harming, but who have I spoken about or who have I missed that you you like?
00:32:11
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I said I wasn't so hot on good. There's one that um you don't have listed there who I think could be a top five midfielder, and that's Caleb Sorong. I just think that he didn't have that great a second half of the season last year, still averaged 104. I think that um the brayshore Sorong one-two punch could be a really good thing for fantasy this year. So I think that he's probably going to be in in that mix as well.
00:32:42
Holmesy
Yeah, saro Sorong's so interesting because, I mean, as a Freo fan, I've watched their games quite closely over the years and it did kind of seem there for a while when Freo went in good form that Sorong and Brayshore, their chemistry was off a little bit where they were both kind of going for the same ball sometimes or they were both leading into the same space to get that mark. and it did kind of seem when Freya were hitting form a little bit more that they'd kind of worked that out and Sorong was sort of at the contest a little bit more and Brayshaw was the one to kind of get on the outside. So I don't know, i don't I'm not sure if there's room there for but for them both to be 110. It's very rare that we see two teams have two players average 110. I think it's even rare for two teams to have players average 105. So I think
00:33:26
Holmesy
one one can go better and one can go worse, or they can both be sort of around that sort of 105 mark, which wouldn't make either of them a top five midfielder harmi. But I do i do love Caleb Sorong. I do just wonder now, is he going to be that? He is that tag target, which makes it harder for him to get the ball on the outside. And we saw he he doesn't have a floor. He is very good at getting to 90, 100, no matter what he does. But maybe those ceiling games aren't there.
00:33:51
Jon Harmey
Yeah, but he was a tag target last year, and he was a tag target the year before. um And Brayshore last year, 105. Saron last year, 104. And we're sort of saying that there's potentially reasons why they under-formed a bit. So yeah, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think that that could occur.
00:34:13
Holmesy
Yep, and then just some other names. Sam Walsh, obviously had that hamstring injury, but we know what he can do. He's been a 109. It's been a while since he's he's been up this high. So, you know, with Hewitt Walsh, ah so not Walsh, Hewitt Cripps, potentially Cherra going back into that midfield, what does that market share look like? So he has the tools to be the number one player in the comp and really push, but I'm just a little bit cagey on how that is all going to play out.
00:34:42
Holmesy
Josh Dunkley, we've seen what he's done in the past. He's been, ah you know, when he's at his best, he's that 108 to 110 player. But if we're predicting Will Ashcroft to to really take a leap and an average in mid-90s and we know humor cluggages good. We know locking meals good. There's always only so much ball to go around. So Josh Dunkley, I'm a little bit cagey on, but still ah like the look of him. and Tim Taranto, it's anyone's guess. If he just becomes the main guy at Richmond and and can do whatever he likes, he could be he could be above 110, but he could also be at that 95 to 100 guy if Richmond are getting spanked each week. So got him in the under the blanket there, but not quite willing to put him in my top eight mids at the moment. Hami, is there any other names you want to touch on?
00:35:24
Jon Harmey
Probably just two that I thought I'd give a mention to, Holmsey. Jack Steele, you don't have him, and he's a number one mid at his club.
Clayton Oliver's Fitness and Melbourne's Midfield
00:35:31
Jon Harmey
um So he could be in there, and Clayton Oliver, I mean again, we don't know where he's at, but he's certainly been in that top mids before, and if every you know if he's really fit, and he's sitting underneath Max Gorn's fist, then he could be in for a good season too.
00:35:52
Holmesy
agree with that. Now, the rucks will will touch on very quickly because it's widely been publicized that there's the two clear one and two. Now, Tristan Cherry at one, I think, is that the general consensus after the year that he had. Now, we don't always see the number one ruckman in the comp back it up. You just have to look at Tim English the year prior However, you did have Brody Grundy with his multiple years just being the the number one guy. um And you'd think Tristan Cherry after the year he's had, he's going to be full of confidence. um So there's no reason he can't back up his 115 average. So happy to have Tristan Cherry at number one. and
00:36:29
Holmesy
Marshall's still at number two. There's no denying his scoring capabilities. He's gone 117, 115 in the last two years. He's still battling with his injury injuries this preseason, but he scores. And at this point in time, we actually don't know what role Harry Boyd's going to play. So at this point in time, we're still assuming that he's going to be the number one ruck moving forward when he when he finally gets back into the side. And um for that reason, I still have him at number two. Is there anyone else you want to throw in the mix before we move on?
00:36:55
Jon Harmey
Well, I've seen the forward line when we get there, mate, you've discounted an injured player. So let's say you remove Marshall from there. And I'm still interested in set and forget. So who are we going to put in? Is it going to be Gorn English or somebody else, you reckon?
00:37:16
Holmesy
You are a nank man, aren't you? Nah.
00:37:18
Jon Harmey
No.
00:37:19
Holmesy
I mean, Max Gorn still has the ability to take the comp away from coaches, doesn't he? Like, there's no there's no denying his 125 pre-buy scoring last year. And yes, he you started to run out a bit of steam and and got injured.
00:37:32
Holmesy
But if Max Gorn came out and averaged 115 to 120 for the first half of the year, would you be surprised?
00:37:39
Jon Harmey
No, I wouldn't be surprised.
00:37:42
Holmesy
So yeah, Max Gorn has to be looked at. He was dealing with a bit of an injur injury interrupted pre-season, but the word is he's he's back training fully now, which is good. Tim English, can you see him getting back to, you know, his 110 plus days? Or do you think that 117 was a bit of an outlier and he's going to be around that sort of 105 to 100 mark?
00:38:05
Jon Harmey
Well, there's a few reasons I think last year, but I do think that one of the reasons last year here regressed a bit was that they wanted to give Darcy and like a bit of a go and see see what would happen in that midfield without English. And with Jamara going out, I think that Darcy is probably going to be more of a stay at home forward would be my guess, depending on what happens with Norton, that sort of thing. so Yeah, there's a chance. There's a chance he's going up from where he currently sits at an average of 105.
00:38:38
Jon Harmey
for
00:38:40
Holmesy
Yeah, and and I suppose what we do know about Tim English is he's not your traditional ruckman. he was more getting his points around the ground as that extra midfielder. And Adam Trelore, there's 110 points going out of that side and they've got to they've got to go somewhere. So maybe maybe he does you know get those possessions back. ah His hit outs dropped by four for a game, I think last year, but it was his possessions that dropped off as well. So yeah, maybe there is potential um if he gets fit and healthy and definitely, definitely one to watch. Don't mind that, Hami.
00:39:11
Holmesy
Let's move to the forward line now. A few players that were have general consensus on, but we'll we'll talk through them anyway. So maybe a little bit controversial, but I actually have Jack McRae as my F1. It's all Jack McRae at the moment with the injury of Filippo, and he was he was going there to be a midfielder anyway. So at this point in time, if he's the second midfielder with Jack Steele in that system, that's high marks and high possessions then.
00:39:38
Holmesy
Jack McRae, he could be anything. I can't see him being worse than 90 and you know I can see him pushing that sort of 100, 100, 205 if everything goes goes well for him. So I think for me, Jack McRae is F1 and he gave me the thumbs up. So you're the sicko that agrees with me.
00:39:55
Jon Harmey
Yeah, no Jack McRae. Never in doubt that one. F1 and look we're talking about a guy that's averaged 122.6 before, so I'm going to probably pencil him down for that average for this season.
00:40:09
Holmesy
Beautiful. Now, F2, I have Bailey Smith, which admittedly, we're all predicting him to to go well, but we we don't know what his role is going to look like in this Geelong team. We know we're thinking that he's going to be an inside midfielder, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to have that 90% time on ground that he had at the Bulldogs when he was that really, really big scorer. But I mean, he's he's averaged 105 before. He's gone on runs where he's averaged 115 plus.
00:40:37
Holmesy
um and showing that he's he's up there with the best scorers in the competition. So it's hard not to have Bailey Smith up there. And I think he's got a higher ceiling than some of these next players that we're going to talk about, um which has him at F2 for me. F3, I have Dylan Moore. Now Dylan Moore, I think, is a bit of a safe option. Admittedly, he's playing the worst role out of these top four forwards in terms of fantasy scoring, playing that high half forward role. But he does it better than anyone and he had the slow start ya last year with the glandular fever and and came home like a steam so steam train. So I can't see him being worse than that sort of 88 mark and with potential to maybe go 94, 95, 96 if he has ah has a career year. So Dylan Moore as my F3 Army, any disagreements there so far?
00:41:25
Jon Harmey
Oh, look, I probably got Dylan more a little bit lower than what you have. But as you go through the next couple, I think that the names are all the same. It's just the order. So I probably got him slightly lower than that.
00:41:39
Holmesy
That's right. So that means that you must have the Hornyman at F4. Do you want to talk through Horned Francis or am I wrong?
00:41:47
Jon Harmey
Now I have I'd have Clive Daniel ahead of them both I reckon at the moment just on based on rolling that north back line you know ceiling that we have seen from the guy before he had a pretty crappy last year didn't he in the Bulldogs and I'm sure that doesn't do much for your motivation so I'm pretty Pretty confident in him coming out and having a really good season. I think he's had a small injury setback, but he didn't lose much time. So I think Daniel could probably be the F3 at the minute, you know, and that's that's without sort of picking anybody that is going to get um forward status throughout the course of the season.
00:42:25
Holmesy
Yep, so I had Daniel at F5 at the moment, so not off by off by too much. Jason Horn-Francis for me at F4, now he's he's an interesting one because we should we we really shouldn't have seen his peak yet, he's still young um and the reason that he's not playing full-time midfield so far to this point in his career is that he's just trying to build that fitness base, so another pre-season There's already been talk from from him himself that Ken Hinckley wants him to play full-time midfield. ah I do worry now, people say it's not necessarily that much of a worry, but if we expect Connor Rose and Zach Butters to get back to being 105 plus midfielders,
00:43:05
Holmesy
Is there, you know, there's only so much ball to go around. Can you see them all averaging over 100? I'm not too sure, but there's no reason Horne Francis can't improve and and be a 95 to 100 averaging player, but you know, he could also average around that 90 mark. We've seen him have a floor in his day and if teams decide they want to tag him a little bit more, then that's when he goes forward and and potentially kicks a couple of goals, but isn't as damaging from an AFL fantasy standpoint. So Jason Horne Francis, I do have at F4,
00:43:34
Holmesy
as I mentioned Caleb Daniel at f5 and Isaac Rankin I've got at f6. Now I'm not sure if you're going to have him here harm me but something is telling me that Isaac Rankin is going to play a more predominant midfield role this year in that sort of dusty Martin role where he gets that sort of 40-ish percent to 50% CBAs and then and then pushes forward and We saw last year where he had that role, he was an 88 averaging player. So another year, ah another preseason getting fitter and and stronger. I just see him as Adelaide's second best player behind Jordan Dawson and and they're going to want him wherever the footy is and and when he's there, he makes things happen. So at the moment I have him at F6 and I'm just wondering if you have him there as well.
00:44:16
Jon Harmey
um Look, around that mark, I'm not on not probably as hot. I mean, yes, he probably is his second best player. He's probably paid as such, and they will look after him in that way. But if they need a goal, I mean, pretty tempting to have ranking down the forward line because he's pretty electric around around the goals, isn't he? So, yeah, um he's going to be around that mark.
00:44:41
Holmesy
Okay, Hami, then who do you have sitting around that F5-6 mark that I haven't spoken about?
00:44:47
Jon Harmey
Yeah, well, I did mention before that you had um removed Filippo. So, you know, if you're looking at averages over the course of the season and in a draft comp, um you know, I'm not not sure we'll get a clearer picture on how many games he's going to miss. However, you know, he could come back in round 5-6 and be 100 averaging midfielder with Saints. So he's somebody that we would still need to consider from a draft perspective.
00:45:11
Jon Harmey
um Can't let him slip too far down the order and forwards is sort of from what I gather um They're a bit of a hard running draft. So, you know, he might be a good bargain pick up for us um The other one I have got is Josh Simpkin. So You know we spoke about the ward law injury earlier um If it is Simpkin and The guy's got a ceiling, he's a fit. like you know like Look at the time trials, he's always up there. so um yeah If he's got a key midfield rail that north, then he could potentially be in that mix as well.
00:45:46
Holmesy
Yep, yep. Agree there, um having him there. I do worry about his floor, but you are right. He does have a he does have a ceiling and, well, I think he was 88 post-buy, which has him right up there. So definitely someone we need to consider for our fantasy squads. um He's cheap, so you can even look at him for the starting squad. A couple of other names. Obviously, Bolton is injured now. Matt Kennedy, something something about Bevo tells me he's going to have a good role. and And we know that when he has a good role, he scores, but he is that sort of Swiss army knife.
00:46:16
Holmesy
which means he can be up and down. So one to watch, but should be around the mark. And one more authority, Brent Daniels. We've spoken about the fact that the GWS midfield is thin. So you've got Tom Green, you've got Canelio, if he's healthy, you know, they throw Callahan through their wards getting on. Does Bedford have the tagging role? Brent Daniels was someone that played some very good football last year.
00:46:40
Holmesy
as that high half forward pushing up around the stoppages and highlighted by that 170 ceiling, which clearly is inflating his average. But can you see him being around that mark and maybe even improving? He's still young or do you think he's more likely to regress back a little bit?
00:46:57
Jon Harmey
Well, GWS players that could really turn a game and win it on their own back, Tom Green, Josh Kelly, ah Lockie Whitfield, Stephen Canilio, I don't think that it Daniels is in that mix.
00:47:12
Jon Harmey
So I'll probably say no, mate, but I do have a couple others that I had looked at um as well in the forward line.
00:47:18
Holmesy
you are You are selling him a little bit short there, Dohami. He offers something different in that midfield, like he's at explosive pace that they're not getting from Canelo anymore, and we know Tom Green's not that. so yeah ah He's not in my top six forwards, but he's just someone, I think, to to be kept on the radar. yeah think I think he's a very good player, but yeah, go on.
00:47:40
Jon Harmey
ah So, well, we didn't mention Jeremy Cameron at all, and he was up there last season. um Riley Sanders, well, if, you know, if he's got that plum trellor roll, he could be in that mix as well. And somebody that has just fallen off the face of the earth,
00:47:57
Jon Harmey
um And we're all hot on this time last year because Sean Darcy wasn't starting the season. We needed to get in Luke Jackson and I fell for it as well. But yeah, Luke Jackson, hey, what a fall from grace over the course of 12 months.
00:48:11
Holmesy
Yeah, i've I've got him ranked way down. I think Freo won him as that X Factor forward. I think they showed last year that at the at the back end that they they wanted Liam Reedy to ruck so that Jackson could stay as that pinch-hitting ruckman. And he's got a serious flaw when he plays forward. So he's not someone I'm looking at at the moment. but As always, ah make necessary adjustments if news comes to hand. If Sean Darcy's out for a long period of time and and they decide that ah Jackson is the guy to be their main ruck, then absolutely he comes into calculations.
00:48:44
Holmesy
All right, Hami, that's going to wrap us up for today. Huge episode with the the best 22. Like I said, it's not a lot of these players we're looking to start, maybe some, but the good coaches will have these players and their own best 22s just written down somewhere, tracking so that they can get these players at the the best possible times because we we do see the coaches that get these players just before they go on their runs or get their ceiling scores. it's a it's a way to really elevate themselves and get ahead of the pack army. But why don't you just give us some closing thoughts um moving into February and towards practice games.
00:49:18
Jon Harmey
Oh, well, I mean, just on the best 22, meaning we've gone through homesy stuff tonight and I've had it pitched in with a few criticisms, but there's some other good resources out there. I mean, I know that Selby's Susan God is is probably pretty close as well. And there's a ah rankings sort of filter in that. I know that the Our mate Stevie Fiers from the Draft Doctors has released the the Draft Guide last week as well. So they're all good resources and these are all things that savvy coaches should be um taking into consideration as we lead into round one.
00:49:56
Holmesy
absolutely harming now make sure you're following us on twitter and x at pod pod afl i'm at homesys heroes make sure you are subscribed to us on spotify apple podcast or wherever you listen to your content and as mentioned last week on the homes files pod pod afl has partnered this year with q platforms to help answer your afl fantasy questions so to help out the pod pod for a small fee um to help us ah really support us. You have the ability to ask questions and get a fully personalized audio response to your AFL fantasy questions. So there's the ability ah for full team reviews, ah questions on individual players, and during the season, to be able to ask trade questions, VCC options, and many, many more. So if you want to get involved and help us out, head over to Ask Me on Q, which is Q-U.
00:50:46
Holmesy
dot com slash podpod afl The link is in the show description below um and that would really help us out, which would be greatly appreciated. We'll be back next week for another episode of the Pod Pod, but for now, enjoy the week. Practice matches are just around the corner and the AFL fantasy season is really starting to heat up.