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Levi Cashcroft! | TDK Trade??? | Strategy Round Table #PODPOD
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Round 8 saw another huge round for coaches as we are starting to see some divergence in rank. Coaches that built their team values nicely are starting to see some pay off as their cash is now able to be put on field. With the bye rounds approaching and cash gen seeming to dry up, trades over the next week will be crucial to ensure our squads are set to attack during the bye rounds.
On this episode we have a full panel on deck, with Holmesy, Harmey, Lewy and Sam all available to help you navigate through this crucial part of the season. The lads review their rounds, discuss the hot topics and then each bring a strategy round table discussion point to reflect the key elements facing AFL Fantasy coaches this week. Enjoy!
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Transcript
Introduction and Welcome
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Monday, 5th of May. We are back for a round eight review and good news, we have a full panel for you today.
00:00:32
Holmesy
It's a bit rare that we've managed to get everyone together. Must have mean everyone's had a good round as ah we know that's when they rock up to the podcast. But
Guest Reintroduction: John Harmy
00:00:41
Holmesy
we will start with you, John Harmy. You've been a bit of a mystery man for for a month or so now, but two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019. It is good to have you back and coinciding with a Hugo Garcia good score. It makes sense.
00:00:55
Jon Harmey
Thanks, Host Holmesy. And yes, that's the primary reason that I'm back here this week. So, oh, look, he had a bloody good game, actually, Hugo Garcia. Don't want to preempt anything, but he may be making appearances my Stato Pick of the Week.
00:01:13
Holmesy
can we Can we just confirm that ah for the 380s and the 110 that he's had this year, that's the first time you've actually had him on field for a decent score?
Hugo Garcia's Strategy and Performance
00:01:24
Jon Harmey
yeah Yeah, last week I had him on field for my 20, so that was, I feel like, a bit of a stab in the back after I'd been pumping him up all this time. But yeah, no, I had him.
00:01:35
Jon Harmey
Well, to be fair, I did loop him on for his 84 on the weekend, but it still counts, so...
00:01:40
Lew
if
00:01:40
Holmesy
Didn't even have the balls to go with him.
00:01:41
Lew
50 across two weeks is pretty good.
00:01:44
Holmesy
Didn't you know they were going to belt Freo by 70 points at Friday Night Footy, Harmy? Come on, mate. You're better than that.
00:01:51
Jon Harmey
Well, I see the Friday night again this week, so most likely another loop, Holmesy.
00:01:57
Lew
what What's his break even, Harmy? Do you have that in front of you?
00:02:01
Jon Harmey
You don't look at break-evens when you've got a completely crap team, Lou.
00:02:04
Lew
or when you've got a keeper, I suppose.
00:02:07
Jon Harmey
Yep. Yep.
00:02:08
Holmesy
That is a good segue. We do have the perennial top 1K finisher and just quietly going very well again this season. Louis, how are you, mate?
00:02:17
Lew
Not too bad, mate. Not too bad. yeah it's ah It's been an okay week for me. So a few ups and a few downs, but um we keep on keeping on.
00:02:27
Holmesy
Beautiful. And
Sam's Rising Performance and Superstitions
00:02:28
Holmesy
we know the rules. We only get this man when he's gone up in rankings, which much much must mean again that he's had a good week. Sam, thanks for gracing us with your presence.
00:02:38
Sam
Yeah, very, very happy to be here, boys. i think I've turned up some weeks, maybe one week where I've gone down. I don't know.
00:02:46
Holmesy
before we are Before we get stuck into the podcast, Sam, do you potentially have something that you want to say to Louis after your antics on Thursday night?
00:02:56
Sam
Yeah, I do, because what I'm seeing in the PodPod chat is rules for one and not rules for another. I was, I was, booted out the chat on the weekend for putting a, a Moz on Nick Martin, an excellent Moz, mind you.
00:03:13
Sam
um And I, I then later in the evening, ah sorry, later in the weekend, copped a Moz from, I think Lou, Harm, Kyle, just pretty much anyone. was keen to Moz for some of my players and yeah, they all laughed about it. So listeners just, yeah,
00:03:30
Sam
there's There's the ah the Pod Pod Elites in this ah chat and there's the Working Class Men. I'll tell you what, I'm um'm the blue collar for you boys right now.
00:03:36
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:03:37
Lew
ah Hang on, who did who did we Moz for you?
00:03:37
Sam
Oh, it's probably Ryan Marich or something after after halftime.
00:03:43
Lew
ah you you can't even remember. Oh, you're talking crap, mate.
00:03:48
Sam
ah
00:03:49
Lew
There's nothing more I hate than quarter one one of your uniques is going okay and someone shoots off a message. Oh, wow, you must be happy about this bloke. It almost just writes it in the sky that this s bloke's just going to go missing for three more quarters.
00:04:05
Sam
I actually, because im I don't believe in...
00:04:06
Holmesy
you know You know exactly what he's doing, Louis. You know exactly what he's doing. And he comes into your DMs to do this as well. When a player that you've got that he doesn't starts well, he comes in and he gets all... like like He's acting like he's not in the top 300 and his season's over and he he puts the moz on. it We see you, Sam.
00:04:27
Lew
yeah yeah To the listeners, send in your send in the biggest mozzers that you've been given because it's, yeah, it's flattening.
00:04:28
Sam
i didn't
00:04:36
Lew
And there's some people that are very good at doing it and they ah they take pride in it.
00:04:42
Holmesy
we are We are watching you boys. Let's get stuck into the round that was. And unfortunately, John Harmy, we're going to have to start with you again, but you did have a semi-decent week. But why
Scores, Rankings, and Team Values Discussion
00:04:53
Holmesy
don't you talk us through yeah your score and and where you're ranking currently?
00:04:57
Jon Harmey
Yep. Score was 2-1-6-9. So, um look, it could have been worse, I suppose. and My ranking, yeah, I've come in slightly to 12,897. So team value, 23 mil. So guess that's not too bad, but it's certainly taken a dent from people like Tom Stewart being in my side, I suppose. So, yeah, certainly not flying like a couple of the members of the pod.
00:05:25
Holmesy
Yeah, still though, team value of 23 million despite Copping Stewart, that shows you've done a lot right and I'm pretty sure you'll be able to get that value on field soon and and start to fly up the ranking. So we'll we'll be waiting for that. Hamid, Lou, I think you were next.
00:05:40
Holmesy
What was yours?
00:05:40
Lew
ah Yeah, scored 22.09. So that was enough just to bring me up about 30 or 40 ranks. I'm at 294 now. I'm back in that top 300, which is encouraging to see. So yeah, hopefully we can keep on kicking on.
00:05:59
Holmesy
Beautiful. Very, very pleasing to see you still chasing towards that top 100. And a man who is absolutely flying. He was out in the out in the dossie ranks with me early in the season, but no longer. Sam, where were you at for the week?
00:06:14
Sam
Yeah, so I had another good week, scored 2256, and that brought me into ah rank 171 from 364.
00:06:19
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:06:24
Sam
So very happy with that um and a good ah good score despite trading Levi Ashcroft, um but we will get into that later, I'm sure.
00:06:26
Jon Harmey
reckon.
00:06:37
Holmesy
Yeah, well, still, Lockie Ash is going to haunt you, right? That pick was that pick was no good and yeah definitely warranted all of that complaining that you did early in the season.
00:06:44
Sam
Yeah.
00:06:49
Holmesy
ah Myself, first time this year, I've been king of the pot, I think, so very positive for me. But a has seen my rank come into which is...
00:07:02
Holmesy
A bit more reflective of where my team was at. I i thought my team value and and my trades had been quite good over the last month, but copped a few unfortunate things with Luke Treanor and some others. But yeah, finally starting to to shoot up and and fingers crossed over the next ah few rounds as we head into the buys that I can really start to launch and and move closer inside that top
Top Picks and Underperformers
00:07:22
Holmesy
1K. But Harmi, why don't you give us your Stato and your Dossie picks for the week?
00:07:27
Jon Harmey
Yep, well, as I said earlier, Hugo Garcia, how could I go past that in a time of need? And he's come through for me with an 84, so what a gun.
00:07:36
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:07:36
Jon Harmey
Somebody who has let me down, though, two weeks in a row now, Riley Sanders. Came in with 51 points and probably battled to get that. I think that if the time wasn't a few weeks ago to get rid of him, it certainly is now and capitalise on the the money that he does have on his head there. So I'll be looking to trade out if I can, if I'm not hit with more injuries throughout the course of the week.
00:08:02
Holmesy
Yeah, with with Bont and Treloar back, it's it's seeming that he's been pushed down the pecking order further and had that pop score. So, yeah, use that cash and get out of it. Lou,
Trading Strategies: Key Players
00:08:11
Holmesy
what were your picks for the week?
00:08:13
Lew
ah Well, hold on to your hats. I traded Garcia and I traded back into Xavier Lindsay, which was ah not a yeah not a great choice.
00:08:21
Jon Harmey
Serves you right, Lou.
00:08:24
Lew
um I'm not too upset by it. The the logic was there, 25 break even. If he went 70 against the Eagles, he backs that up again with a 25 break even and potentially goes 70 again.
00:08:38
Lew
it was i was just looking to try and make 120K off of him instead of dropping down into those box show areas. ah Didn't work out. That's okay. He's a little bit of depth on the bench and fingers crossed that's just a poorly timed investment and I can still squeeze a bit of money out of him. um And then on the other on the other end, it was just Oliver to Petrarca. So,
00:09:00
Lew
Another bit of a sideways one, but um ended up getting, you know, within touching distance of like a Harry Sheasel who I was also tossing up to bring in. So I was quite happy with that, with the 122, I think it was from memory.
00:09:15
Holmesy
Yep. Beautiful. And Sam, what were your picks?
00:09:20
Sam
ah Yes, I give Stato Pick of the Week to a couple of boys. Ryan Marich put up a really nice score. and And the other one for me was Luke Trainor. so I didn't ah't have Zach Reid.
00:09:30
Jon Harmey
trying to
00:09:33
Sam
I actually traded him out a couple of weeks ago. So it was a bit of a nervous wait on Sunday, wondering would he, would he not get the sub. And then he got a full game and and put up a really nice score.
00:09:43
Sam
So I was very happy about that. um Dossie pick of the week, TDK. I knew that the Cherry TDK difference was going to be a bit this week. I just didn't think it would be 60 points worth of difference. um So that really hurt, and I think he's probably got to go this week.
00:10:04
Holmesy
Yep, we're going to touch on him in the hot topics. ah My Stato pick of the week. Now, I left the other one for you, Sam. I thought you were going to go with Max Gorn as the skipper. So, special mention, but my Stato pick for the week is actually Levi Ashcroft.
00:10:21
Holmesy
Sam, do you have any reason why I might have given Levi Ashcroft the Stato pick of the week?
00:10:26
Sam
I can only think of about 115 reasons you might have given him the Stato Pick of the Week.
00:10:33
Holmesy
Look, listeners, for those of you for those of you listening, so Sam can – we've already touched on it. Sam can be quite quite a prick in the DMs and – and
00:10:43
Sam
Hang off what is is this the Bash Sam podcast?
00:10:43
Holmesy
on so on
00:10:46
Sam
Like, what is this? We're 10 minutes in and 8 minutes has been spent bashing me.
00:10:51
Holmesy
This is earned, Sam. So on Sunday, I did nothing but support you with trainer, knowing full well I had him on the bench and him going well would tank my rank, but I supported you.
00:11:05
Holmesy
I was happy for you. And then what do you do? You come into the group chat and you, into my DM, sorry, and you need tempt the fantasy gods and you I say, I need a good score from Levi. I need a ton. And you said, I'm not going to lie.
00:11:19
Holmesy
I want him to be subbed out on 14. And then you said, that's that's unfair. I'll give you 28. And what you did, you tempted you tempted the fantasy gods.
00:11:31
Holmesy
And when he come out and had 40 points in that first quarter, it was just absolutely marvelous. So very good, Sam. You get my ah my Stato pick of the week for that. And ah thank you for for tempting the fantasy gods.
00:11:44
Holmesy
My Dossie pick of the week,
00:11:44
Sam
Thanks, Ivesy.
00:11:48
Holmesy
Probably a little bit unfair to give it to Xavier Lindsay as a rookie. So I'm just going to give it to Andy Brayshaw. 78 points. That St. Kilda matchup has been giving up points recently. But yeah, he couldn't do anything and actually got taken out of midfield in that second half.
00:12:02
Holmesy
So 78 points from a... A premium priced at 1.08 mil is absolutely not on. Boys, let's just talk a little bit about our trades last week and what we were hoping to achieve. So Lou, you've already touched on yours, Lindsay and Petrarca. So we
Sam's Trade Strategy and Team Setup
00:12:19
Holmesy
we'll skip over yours. But Sam, talk to us a little bit about your trades and and what you were, you know, strategy and what you were trying to achieve last week to set yourself up for this week.
00:12:28
Sam
Yep, sure. So I went Lawler to Boxhul and Ashcroft to Sheasel. um You know, it hurts, but Ashcroft was the only player that would unlock that kind of tier of top tier defenders.
00:12:44
Sam
And I was really interested in Sheasel this week. The thing that um I ummed and ahed about was whether to trade Ashcroft or Oliver. It was a decision I left kind of right up until the last minute and probably only ended up trading Ashcroft because Bokshul put up a good score and I was able to loop him on the field for Oliver.
00:13:04
Sam
So it it hurts um because Ashcroft's probably going to make, what, 50K this week, and another 50K. So I'll miss out on little bit of cash gen there.
00:13:15
Sam
But if Oliver's back this week, then it'll be nice. If he's not, it'll it'll sting twice. So, yeah, mixed mixed feelings, but you can't be unhappy about 134 trade-in.
00:13:28
Holmesy
Yeah, look, you it it's turned out to hurt to hurt you quite badly, but it wasn't the worst thing in the world. I know a lot of people probably would have got saved this week because a lot of coaches were looking to trade Ashcroft before the Oliver News and and they pivoted that way.
00:13:42
Holmesy
So, you know, he hadn't been and been shooting the lights out, but a 115 is tough, but you can definitely see the process there. And hey, you've got Harry Sheasel. So a lot of coaches still don't have him.
00:13:52
Holmesy
Harmi, what were you looking to do with your trades this week?
00:13:53
Sam
just Just on Ashcroft, you might remember at the end of the last podcast, I said I was excited to see what coaches did with Ashcroft. I just checked to see what his ownership stats are.
00:14:03
Lew
Thank you.
00:14:05
Sam
It's still 65%. I think it was 66 last week. So me and me and three other players must have traded him out, I think.
00:14:15
Holmesy
Yeah, that stings. Harmi, what were your trades?
00:14:19
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, my trades, i I've actually been in the habit of trying to hold people that I think of premiums. People like Will Day are held right up until him actually being ruled out for long term.
00:14:32
Jon Harmey
um Tom Stewart I've had the entire season have kept holding.
Harmi's Premium Holding Strategy
00:14:37
Jon Harmey
But anyway, i felt as though I was losing too much ground. So this week I like to do a couple of sideways-ish trades and I traded Clayton Oliver and Tom Stewart out.
00:14:47
Jon Harmey
And I brought in Ned Long, who I was trying to get the week before. Anyway, and Ned Long and Dane Zorko. So, yeah, I don't know what to make of those two sideways trades. I guess the score I got a bit better at scores, but it didn't feel great.
00:15:03
Holmesy
Yeah, you've got a good team value though, so it's it's not the worst making those making those trades.
00:15:08
Jon Harmey
I'll tell you something else so in that, Holmes.
00:15:08
Holmesy
um
00:15:09
Jon Harmey
yeah I mean, I've actually also um i've been a bit reluctant to jump on rookies that I felt don't have very good job security. and um yeah So I've sort of got a bench full of those 500,000 value guys because I didn't want to cash them all out at this point. But anyway, I'm going to have to soon.
00:15:31
Holmesy
Yep, fair enough. And my trades, all week I had a rookie going down, two rookies on the bench and going up to Sheasel. um But with the news of Clary, look, some people held and it might prove to be masterstroke if he comes back this week and and goes back to scoring well. But I kind of weighed up the percentages and thought even if he does come back um a few tough matchups, the likelihood that he's going to burn me by going at a stretch of 110 is probably pretty low.
00:16:00
Holmesy
um So I pulled the pin on Clary to Sheezle. And then with my other trade, um maybe I should have fixed up a rookie, maybe not, but I actually went TDK to Marshall. Now, I didn't have enough money to get TDK to Cherry, which would have been my preferred, but...
00:16:15
Holmesy
and Taking a punt on Marshall, I don't think is going to be the worst in the long term. It's Rowan Marshall. We know what he can do. He's struggling for a bit of fitness at the moment. But if he can get that up and and start putting up those premium scores again, um i think that's going to be an
Player Performance and Trade Considerations
00:16:29
Holmesy
okay trade. And that's a good segue into our hot topics for today.
00:16:33
Holmesy
The first one we need to talk about is Tom DeConing. um Outside of the 117, he's had a very lean run of scores. What's that? 260, 70, and 80 in his last five.
00:16:45
Holmesy
um Don't fact me fact check me there, but he's now bleeding cash. um He's essentially back down to the price he started at with the other rucks starting to get going. Now, I'm going to start with you, Sam, as you're actually the only owner of Tom DeConing on the podcast now.
00:17:01
Holmesy
Do you think this this is the week and it's now whenever where you've got to pivot off TDK?
00:17:08
Sam
Yeah, look, it it certainly feels like it. um And he has been in my trade plans for the last two weeks as well. um I've just decided to go down different paths, but Tristan Jerry's the one I'm really interested in for obvious reasons. He's now at 1 million, TDK's at 900.
00:17:29
Sam
That gap's only going to get bigger with their break-evens. So Yep, I think if you haven't done it already, I'd be strongly advocating it. I would say, ah you know, if you're a listener and you've got Cherry and you're after Gorn,
Ruckmen Trading Strategies
00:17:46
Sam
that's a pretty hard decision um because Gorn's, you know, I mean, you're basically paying top, top, top dollar for Gorn at this point.
00:17:54
Sam
um we might I think we're going to talk about the rucks, but maybe you look at other options.
00:17:59
Holmesy
Louis, I'm going to throw to you, and I know you did it two weeks ago as well, Harmi, where you both went TDK to Cherry. Lou, what I want you to talk me through is, you know, in an ideal world, yes, it's a good week to pivot off a TDK to to find some cash to go up to Cherry or or maybe go across to Marshall. But what kind of situations and teams do you think it's not a good thing to do TDK in terms of what some coaches are going to be in positions where they might have some rookies they need to get off?
00:18:31
Holmesy
is it Is it being in a luxurious position to get off TDK or do you actually see it as something that's quite urgent now?
00:18:39
Lew
I'm probably split between the middle now because um he's just had his tough matchup, TDK, and yet it wasn't too crash hot. ah Now he comes into a bit of green. So he's got the Saints, then he's got Sydney, and then he's got GWS, who are all giving up some nice points for Ruckman.
00:18:57
Lew
I think we've got to remember most coaches paid 900K for this guy. So if he can go at that 90 clip for the next three weeks, yes, he might lose a bit of money. But I can't help but feel you can still improve your team um in other areas and and you know get that leg up elsewhere. Just you know look at this week as well. Cherry's got the bright red DVP matchup um in comparison to TDK.
00:19:24
Lew
I don't know. I'm just questioning the timing. That buy doesn't feel right to me. You're going to get three games before the buy. understand that Tom De Koning is the same, but is it a bit of sunk cost in chasing points or do you think that, do we actually think that there's what, 40 points a week, um as some people are saying on top of TDK's head each week?
00:19:48
Holmesy
well Well, let's go into that, Harmi, because as fantasy coaches, we do have a ah tendency to to chase points, um thinking that what we've seen is just going to continue. So let's start with Max Gorn, Harmi. He's just finished it. Well, he hasn't finished, but he's just gone through a the run of all runs for Rucks.
00:20:06
Holmesy
He's now priced at 115.
00:20:09
Holmesy
We've seen coaches in the past you know give in and pay up for Max at 115, and it's a heavy, heavy price to pay now. Would you be able to pay up for Max Gaunt?
00:20:19
Jon Harmey
ah I wouldn't feel very comfortable doing that, I guess. um Depends on who else they have in the ruck, obviously, but I think that Cherry and Marshall both present good options as trading over Gorn at this point, i would have thought.
00:20:36
Holmesy
Louis, did you see much of Rowan Marshall on the weekend? And I know you were umming and ahhing with me when I when i traded in Rowan Marshall. You think he's not fit at the moment. Why don't you give the listeners your your perspective on what you were saying to me about Rowan?
00:20:50
Lew
Well, that's just it. I don't think the fitness is there at the moment. And we're probably seeing that a little bit in terms of the amount of ball that he's able to find. And some of the chop-outs we're seeing, like it it would have been so easy for them to um sub out an Isaac Keeler a couple of weeks ago. But they persisted because he was giving him that sort of break um in the ruck.
00:21:11
Lew
I agree with you, Holmesy. I think Marshall's going to turn it around. He's probably, um you know, R3 really if we're if we're calling Gorn and Cherry the um the top two. So I don't think you'll regret that one. But um yeah, just tread with a bit of caution there. I think he might be carrying something. But in terms of his buy around, it might be more advantageous for coaches to sort of look there and take that punt too.
00:21:41
Sam
Just on Marshall, um he yeah actually had a quite a significant uplift in ruck contests um this week against Freo. And I don't know whether that was just because of what the game, you know, how the game played out was a bit of a funny one with,
00:21:57
Sam
Not many CBAs and all that. and but So he went from, he's basically been averaging high 70% ruck contests. He was up to 89% on the weekend. So, you know, if you were thinking about him, maybe that's a and nice little favourable sign, Lou.
00:22:13
Lew
Yeah, I was just going to circle back to TDK as well. um And I'm a little bit worried about what he scores this week, not because I think he's going to score 60, but the Saints offering him 1.7 milli to go over to their club and play.
00:22:30
Lew
ah does he Does he just turn one on and justify that price tag in an easy matchup? and I'm not sure that, you know, that's got to be within the realms of possibility, doesn't it?
00:22:38
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:22:42
Sam
Yeah, Romar's a really interesting one because obviously TDK's in my trade plans this week. So I went back and had a look at how Rucks have fared against Romar. It's been a bit up and down. um And I saw some, I think Jaden put out some stats today about change in team scoring and Saints were well down on transition scores and well up on stoppage scores. So maybe they're drifting away from that kind of outside game into more of a,
00:23:10
Sam
Inside game, look, it might be just a case of who they've played so far. But, yeah, I mean, t I could definitely see TDK trying to prove something to people this week and going really well.
00:23:21
Sam
Holmesy?
00:23:21
Lew
I think Carlton are almost leading the comp for stoppages too, aren't they?
00:23:26
Sam
Yeah, right.
00:23:28
Holmesy
Louis, could it go the other way where Rowan Marshall says something to TDK and he goes, well, this guy's trying to come over and take my job.
00:23:37
Sam
Yeah.
00:23:38
Holmesy
I'm going to stick it to him. It could it could go either way. um you know i I like Marshall. um I mean, I brought him in, so I can't exactly talk listeners out of it.
00:23:48
Holmesy
But what I will say is I watched that game very closely. He started slow and then he went bang. He got to 45 very quickly. And then he definitely slowed for about a quarter and a half. And then he got busy late. But that was when, for some strange reason, Longmuir...
00:24:07
Holmesy
arrested Darcy and Jackson and was rucking him a again against household ruckman Draper. So um tre treat that with a bit of caution. I think the safest play probably is to wait until his buy and and get on him after.
00:24:21
Holmesy
But in saying that, you hold TDK to his buy and then where do you go? You can't trade into Cherry on his buy. You're not going to trade into Marshall when he has the buy the week after. you are looking at player that's further on and then you're burning a trade. So all oh interesting points. Sam, just finish it off for us.
00:24:39
Sam
Yeah, I mean, it might also be team dependent. I mean, I know that's the answer to everything, but like I've kind of traded out a lot of my top liners as we've talked as, sorry, I mean, top line rookies.
Evaluating Harry Sheasel's Potential Value
00:24:51
Sam
So this week I'm a bit short of cash and it feels like a good week for me to pivot knowing I've probably, probably only field two rooks this week, which will be nice.
00:25:02
Holmesy
Beautiful. Our next hot topic, how can we not talk about this man, Harry Sheasel? Sheasley Ball is officially back at the moment.
00:25:10
Lew
Thank you.
00:25:11
Holmesy
Full-time defensive role, scored 134. He's now 50% owned, and that's going to be a little bit more in the the top 1,000 now compared to what it was earlier on in the season. Priced at 106.
00:25:24
Holmesy
Lou, why don't you talk us through your your thinking because he's someone that you want to get in this week despite having a buy-in in three weeks.
00:25:32
Lew
Yeah, well, the thinking is just based on what we saw last season. When he started the year, he was he was off that halfback and he was pretty much pushing 120 average.
00:25:37
Holmesy
you
00:25:45
Lew
throughout twenty twenty four And and looks like it might be coming back into vogue in 2025. He's come out and said that he's going to be playing off halfback. The coaches have all backed it in. ah And I think it could potentially stick. So priced at 105, if he wants to sit there at halfback, take kick-ins and and get a bunch of sheezy ball, it's all right with me. 15 points, you know potential upside at 105 price tag. It's just, it's almost unheard of. So um for me, I think he's he's got to be high up the list of
00:26:20
Lew
priority targets for coaches ah this week. And then certainly next week, I think that's probably the own that you want him for just with that Tigers round 10 matchup. That could be, yeah that could be supersonic,
00:26:35
Holmesy
Yep, beautiful. Harmi, our last hot topic before we get stuck into our strategy roundtable is the buy round. So
Buy Round Trading Strategies
00:26:43
Holmesy
why don't you give us your thoughts on the buy rounds and how you're looking to kind of trade in the next few weeks leading up to round 12.
00:26:52
Jon Harmey
Well, yeah, that's actually what I was going to raise as our strategy round team. So that's a good segue. I mean, ah don't know how much um planning that you guys have done for the buyers. I guess my opinion was always that this buy um period this year will actually be a bit...
00:27:09
Jon Harmey
easier if you think of it like that, because particularly the Frio and St Kilda buy rounds on round 13 means that we're going to have more trades in that 12 and 13 and have a number ah trading options coming off the 12 and 13 buy. So look, I'm not sure what it means for us eyeing off your Harry Sheasel with only three games now um before the buy rounds. I guess i like Lou.
00:27:40
Jon Harmey
I'm interested in bringing him in as a, a i well, i guess discounted slightly premium. um But yeah, it's only three games away. So I think I probably still will go there because, you know, your sheasel type is somebody that you look to hold um on his buy anyway. He wouldn't be getting off. It's not like somebody that's going to make $100,000 in the next three weeks and then you're going to trade them out anyway.
00:28:05
Jon Harmey
So probably feeling okay about Harry Sheasel. But yeah, I just, you know, we don't have any weeks so through that buy period where we've got six teams.
00:28:14
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:28:15
Jon Harmey
You know, it's fairly well spread out and the extra week and the extra week of trades. um I guess I haven't been focusing on it as much um this year. But what about you, Holmesy? How have you been eyeing off these buy period trades?
00:28:30
Holmesy
Yeah, so up to this week, I'll admit, I made a conscious effort to just get in the best players at the best prices. And then from this week, I was going to start to look at and my buy structure. So what I did was I got a spreadsheet out with my team and and just looked at the premiums. And what I was trying to look at, we've got five buy rounds. I was trying to see how many premiums I was likely to have come round 12.
00:28:57
Holmesy
And from there, just trying to get a nice even split. So we know Stato's preached his 8-10-12 model back when we had the three buy
00:29:01
Lew
Thank you.
Round 12 Strategy Adjustments
00:29:06
Holmesy
rounds.
00:29:06
Holmesy
But I was just looking to have 4-4-4-4-4 with the premiums. And from there, just look to target premiums off their buyers. Now, like a lot of coaches at the moment, I'm pretty heavy in round 12.
00:29:17
Holmesy
twelve um And I did bring in Sheezle this week. So that adds another premium. But I think over the next couple of weeks, I'll probably look to you know potentially get off of Caleb Daniel if he doesn't turn his form around.
00:29:29
Holmesy
um you know Chera looks like he's potentially starting to come to the end or you know he's priced at 94 now. we He probably goes ninety five ish for the rest of the year so that's he's pretty much made his cash so just over the next two or three weeks just trying to get as close to that even split of premiums as I can so that throughout the buy rounds I can I can pivot as needed and and try to maximize the amount of players that I have um on each buy round Sam are you are you similar
00:29:58
Sam
Yeah, I am kind of similar. um I looked at my buy round structure for last week's trade because it was going to factor into my shiesel decision. um Yeah, really only round 12 and round 14 are presenting headaches at the moment and round 14 because we've got guys like Roberts, Short, Bison, Trainer all in the back line, for many of which are probably on field for people.
00:30:25
Sam
um and then maybe the midline in round 15, Dawson, Oliver. I've got Marich, so it's a bit different for me. um But yeah, I think just the round 12 one's causing a bit of headache. I am keen to bring in some more round 16 guys because I've only got really Ash and Smith there at the moment.
00:30:41
Sam
um So yeah, that's something I'll be looking at.
00:30:45
Holmesy
Yeah, I suppose like you you mentioned Treanor and Marik in that conversation, but they're not really worries, right? Because they're the perfect upgrade targets at their buy. and I mean, unless Treanor falls off a cliff in the next couple of weeks and and really puts up a stinker, which he can, but a Ryan Marik, you're pretty pretty comfortable. He's going to be that sort of 70 to 80 guy um over the next four weeks to get through to his buy. He might go up a bit, he might lose a little bit, but he's going to be roughly what he is now. So,
00:31:12
Holmesy
those are the Those are the perfect players to start to get off. um Sam, but I'm going to stick with you now. So we're we're going to go strategy round table. um Each of us have got a point that we're kind of going to lead the conversation on and and really get stuck into the key strategy points leading into this round of footy. So Sam, why don't you kick us off?
00:31:32
Sam
Yeah, sure. So I just wanted to talk about um some of these guys who we were interested in at the start of the season, um got injured and now back on the radar for us.
Injury Concerns: Callum Mills
00:31:43
Sam
So I've got three guys here, Philippou, Mills and Kitty Coleman. um I think I'll start with Mills because I think he's a fairly easy one to cross off until we see something.
00:31:55
Sam
So obviously,
00:31:58
Sam
It was talked about it going back into the midfield, but he's had a plantar injury now for the best part of, well, I'd say 10 weeks. um The thing has still got, ah sorry, the injury list still says one to two weeks away. The club's saying he's a week-to-week proposition.
00:32:13
Sam
ah just, um a word of warning, I guess, to coaches. The minute he comes back, I think we just wait and see for around at least one, if not two. Does anyone have any different feelings about Callum Mills there?
00:32:28
Holmesy
No, I think you've absolutely nailed that.
00:32:28
Lew
Yeah.
00:32:28
Lew
yep
00:32:29
Holmesy
right i He's someone that I've kind of had in the back of my mind for the last sort of month as you know maybe when we start struggling for cash, he might be a little nice upgrade option to get your final rookie off field.
00:32:40
Holmesy
But the longer this injury goes on, the stinkier it gets. You know, what's not to say that he gets back in and and he he has to be managed through. Maybe he gets a vest, maybe he doesn't.
00:32:51
Holmesy
um But that's that's a disaster at that time of year if he's going to get a vest and and put up a stinking score and and lose your cash. So um he's one for me that I think you'd need to see a good run of maybe three games.
00:33:03
Holmesy
um Yes, he might go from 750K up to, you know, 820, But he'll still be value if he's got the role and he's playing well. And and then you can look to get on him um a little bit later. So yeah, really like those thoughts on Mills.
00:33:17
Holmesy
You know, in some players, its you you try to get ahead of the comp um when you think the risk will outweigh the reward. But I think there's far too much risk with Callum Mills.
00:33:28
Lew
Yeah, umm I'm not even sure he he walks into that midfield, to be quite honest with you.
00:33:28
Sam
And
00:33:31
Jon Harmey
No, that's right, Lou.
00:33:33
Lew
I think it's going to be tricky to have the match fitness immediately as well. And um but he keeps getting pushed back one week, one week, one week. We know that plantar fasciitis can be an absolute...
00:33:45
Lew
pain in the ass and I just don't think he's got a role to play for us this year he's 760k yeah like you said he plays three rounds he might get up to 850 it's just a bit of no man's land I think I'd rather and improve my team elsewhere look it's going to be a player that we probably consider um but it's going to be through desperation I think um ah I'm happy to just leave this be
00:34:15
Sam
The next two I'm much more interested in, and I think the reason I'm so interested in them is because when they when they come back, because it's not a case of if, whether coaches go into the first round or whether they watch for a week. So Philippou and Coleman.
00:34:31
Sam
Philippou
Matthias Philippou's Return and Trading Caution
00:34:32
Sam
is priced at $6.56. He was apparently ready to go this week and then copped to Corky in training. He's got, we're obviously hoping he gets a midfield role at the Saints, a pretty strong one when he comes back.
00:34:46
Sam
The CBAs this week went Steele, McRae, Garcia, all above 70%, and then Boxall chipping in with just 39%. My question is to you guys, because there are a lot of coaches that are interested in launching into him first round, is that something you would do, or would you want to see what sort of role he has first?
00:35:09
Lew
ah I think you have to see the role, don't you? I'm not sure yet what we're buying with a Matthias Philippou.
00:35:12
Jon Harmey
Yep. yep
00:35:17
Lew
He's obviously a star and he will be a star, but we're banking on, what, four games of footy at the end of last year when the legs are all tired and Matthias has come in relatively fresh off of ah a bit of a VFL stint and some injuries. So,
00:35:33
Lew
ah For me, I would have to see it, I think. I'm not totally convinced that he is 90-plus guy just yet. I think you need to see one or two games and priced at 65.
00:35:46
Lew
Look, are you really going to be complaining if you're paying a 70, even a 75 price tag for a guy that's going 90-plus as a forward? I don't think so. so For me, um'm I'm willing just to wait on this one. and um like you said, that transition footy for the Saints has clearly decreased.
00:36:05
Lew
ah And that was sort of off the back of... He was sort of scoring off the back of some of those uncontested marks last season. So, yeah, for me, I think the safe play is just to wait. I don't think he's a guarantee not to be handed a sub vest either, knowing ah Ross the boss.
00:36:24
Sam
Yeah, like it, Lou. I definitely agree with that, particularly given how the Saints midfield has fluctuated a little bit this year.
Kitty Coleman's Performance Analysis
00:36:33
Sam
Then the next one is Kitty Coleman. So he had 131 points in the VFL over the weekend, 28 touches, 10 marks, five tackles.
00:36:42
Sam
And um sidebar, he was 70 points less than the top scorer in that game with Braden Goderini pumping out 205. So that's a fun one for the listeners. Yeah.
00:36:55
Holmesy
Yeah, that's ah that's a name that hasn't been heard on this podcast for a while. Shout out, Dossie. I know you're probably planning on how you trade him in as a red dot at some point soon so you're ahead of the pack when he finally does come in.
00:37:09
Sam
So he's priced at five hundred and twenty one k um So a couple of things to mention here. they've Brisbane has mentioned that ah it might be tough for him to get back in the side when they I think Fagan was asked about whether he'd be in next week.
00:37:22
Sam
um We've obviously got Zorko and now Jasper Fletcher playing back there. Zorko, you know, maybe he gets moved back forward or, you know, onto a wing or maybe even a bit of mid-time, although I doubt that.
00:37:35
Sam
But then the question is, how do they manage Coleman when he comes back? Maybe he starts as a sub, maybe he gets subbed during a game. I'll ask you the same question, maybe Harmi. Is Coleman someone that you could launch into one week or would you have to wait and see?
00:37:51
Jon Harmey
Nah, we need to see it. Look, um it was it was quite promising to see what he did in the VFL. So that was a really good. ah But, I mean, as you say, there may be competition for the spot. What role is he walking back into?
00:38:07
Jon Harmey
How is he physically? I think there's probably too many questions. At his price point, I mean, it's a great price point, isn't it? You're making money off all of these rookies that we've been riding for a little while.
00:38:18
Jon Harmey
um But I think we need to see it for a week or two before we could really confidently bring him in um to our sides. He's got the the late buy, the around 16 buy. So not sure of the timing of this because you're probably looking at a trade in option for him before his buy if we go that way. so But anyway, thank to answer your question, mate, I think that we need to see probably two weeks.
00:38:46
Lew
Gee, at that price point, I could see Coleman being a bit of a play alongside a switcheroo in the ruck there. if yeah If you're going to drop down from some of these fattened cash cows, be it a Levi Ashcroft, a Zach Reed, even a Ryan Marich or Ned Long, ah you're potentially making $150K plus there, and that might be just enough to to get some cash on TDK's head ah to look at a ruck play there. So...
00:39:13
Lew
potentially that's how you you stop the bleeding in terms of breaking some trade cadence in a couple of weeks' time.
00:39:19
Sam
you um You stole the word...
00:39:19
Holmesy
And what i will but I will add to that, sorry, Sam, is like if you are a little bit strapped for cash, imagine just sidewaysing a Pryor or you know a Davidson or someone like that making a little bit of cash from Coleman. like that's it's It's making a little bit of money or or going sideways, but you're getting ah a genuine premium, albeit coming off injury,
00:39:44
Holmesy
for for a Pryor or a Davidson that's done their job. So I don't i don't hate the idea. i don't i don't think I'd feel comfortable going, say, like a short or an underpriced premium down to Coleman. But if you're able to get shifty because you can't get a genuine upgrade and you're able to just take a rookie across to Coleman or Philippa or whatever it is, um I actually do like that idea. and And that is ah the type of strategy that coaches use to get the 23rd, 24th premium um later on down the track. So yeah.
00:40:13
Holmesy
Well done, Sam. I do like those players, but um I think for me, especially all three of those, i'd I'd need to see at least a week to see what their roles are. as there's There's too many moving parts compared to when we saw them play ah last year or the year before.
00:40:28
Holmesy
Harmi, why don't you give us your talking point?
00:40:31
Jon Harmey
Yes, as I said earlier, mate, I was going to bring up the buy, mid-year buy period and what that looks like for all of us. Probably the one thing that I didn't talk about in that conversation was um just the red dots starting to accumulate on our benches.
Managing Red Dot Players During Buys
00:40:49
Jon Harmey
And I know that I traded out a number of those earlier in the season because I was i conscious about that. trying to get as close to 30 playing players through that period, um As you can get, I think, you know, thinking back over time, it certainly helps you um as you launch towards the um top 100.
00:41:10
Jon Harmey
remember Warnham traded in Griffin Logue and in that buy period he popped 100. So, I mean, that's you wouldn't think of it now looking at him, but and that's the sort of thing that can happen. So just making sure that we have as many playing players throughout that five-week period as we can.
00:41:28
Holmesy
Yeah, and that that kind of segues into my topic army so we can kind of back off each other here. But, Louie, I'll throw to you, I just want to talk a little bit about how we balance milking our cash cows now and having enough players to still play during the buys.
00:41:34
Lew
Bye.
00:41:43
Holmesy
Now, admittedly, Harmi mentioned that sometimes rookies do pop scores during the buys and that's a way to get a leg up. So we do understand that, yes, if we are trading these red dots, let's use a stone, for example. Say you you trade a stone to Boxall this week and Boxall's dropped.
00:42:01
Holmesy
or managed or in a vest, then he's someone that's not going to be playing for you throughout the buys. um You know, all of these rookies that are coming in now, they they're coming in now for a reason, their job security is not great.
00:42:13
Holmesy
How do we balance, you know, taking a Bice or a Lindsay or a Davo, Pryor, for example, up up to good players knowing that you are going to have to go down? Do you think we need to get creative?
00:42:26
Holmesy
Or do you think we just keep doing what we're doing, go down to the best rookie available? And if we do get three weeks or four weeks, then we do, or we kind of let our bench rot a bit. What are your what are your thoughts here?
00:42:37
Lew
Well, no, I think we've got to get creative. ah I can remember sitting here a couple of weeks ago, Holmes, and we were talking about that three rookie defense. and And then a week later, we got stitched up with a sub, which which nobody really saw coming.
00:42:51
Lew
um And that's sort of been tattooed on my brain since. I think we're trading. um um do wonder if we're just getting a little bit impatient with some of these rookies and whether we need to look towards the future a little bit more.
00:43:04
Lew
So um look if I give you some examples, a lot of coaches have traded a Reed, a Levi, a david ah ah Davidson, a Garcia, but some of these guys coming in, they're they're not exactly a testament of job security like whatsoever.
00:43:18
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:43:19
Lew
Busslinger, was the name on everybody's lips two weeks ago. He's just been handed a sub vest despite a Jones injury. Boxall was the number one guy last year. Pooh's got to come in Wood's got to come in. Jones and Clark, they're going to float around that 22.
00:43:35
Lew
um Fonty will probably be the popular one this week. is he Is he going to be able to break into that side? You know, GWS going to be pushing for a flag. So, Yeah, I do have question marks on um maybe some of the strategy around what we're doing and whether or not we need to take some haircuts in terms of the rookies, avoid those vests, and maybe it's a little bit slower cash generation, but throughout the buyers, it it might really pay dividends where, you know, you might not be looking at some of these potential red dots on the bench. And, um you know, as you said, Holmes, these vests,
00:44:12
Lew
players that are coming in now as rookies, the facts are they're probably not going to score as well as what we had in round one until this um mid-season draft comes along. So, yeah, do you guys have any strong thoughts here? i think benches are getting a little bit grim and, you know, that's...
00:44:29
Lew
not Certainly not pumping up my own tyres here because I brought in Xavier Lindsay on the weekend, but that's kind of the um the thought process that I had is, well, instead of bringing in ah in a Boxall who maybe has two weeks in the side, can i can I get a bit creative and find a guy that's going to make 100 and 150k elsewhere, avoid the sub vest and still keep upgrading my side around that?
00:44:53
Holmesy
Yeah, and that's where I'm kind of thinking at the moment. Like, don't get me wrong, a lot of coaches have have got off Treanor, Reid, Ashcroft, Sam, and they've managed to get gun players.
00:45:05
Holmesy
But, you know, Ashcroft proved it on the weekend. Now, not saying these rookies are going to pump out a 115, but Treanor, a lot of coaches traded from his 12 because they thought his cash gem was done, but all of a sudden he's gone 73, 87, and his cash is moving in the right direction again. Now, Davidson's just been subbed.
00:45:23
Holmesy
Thank that could have been his rest. He gets back to Marvel Stadium instead of playing at Adelaide Oval and and Mars where he's been playing recently. And and maybe he puts up another 80-85 score and and his cash is going again. So I think I've been guilty in the past of of milking the bench a little bit too early to some of these players and then not having the cash to really launch throughout the buys and after the buy and then really falling behind those other
Rookie Trading Caution
00:45:51
Holmesy
coaches. so I think we do need to be a little bit smarter.
00:45:54
Holmesy
um You know, not just upgrading for the sake of upgrading. Yes, if you can get to that underpriced premium that you believe is the guy and they can go 15, 20 points above their price and and really be a good good trading and absolutely do it. But we just got to we just got to still remember we've got buy rounds to play.
00:46:10
Holmesy
um We don't want to get towards, you know, only playing 19, 18 in the buys because then you are in a little bit of trouble. Sam, would you have anything else to add to that? You are someone that has done this. ah Do you feel a little bit nervous around your team?
00:46:24
Sam
Yeah, definitely do feel nervous about my bench. yeah I've got a little bit of seller's remorse, um particularly again around guys like Reid and obviously Ashcroft. The one thing I would say to coaches is, you know, don't despair.
00:46:37
Sam
um It's, you know, part of the reason that I'm looking at TDK to Cherry this week is because it gives me the opportunity to do a little rookie fix-up.
Fixing Rookie Setups
00:46:46
Sam
So maybe I trade out a Marais or someone else who's a red dot and and bring in a green one.
00:46:51
Sam
Lou?
00:46:53
Lew
Yeah, I was just going to say, this is where some of those cheapies that you mentioned earlier, Sam, can come into um can come into fruition for these coaches where you might be turning two relatively dead rookies to you know one that's going to play through the buyers. It might be a Josh Smiley, a Lombard. There's a couple through, a Lewis Hayes as well, potentially. um and then And then getting up on that other end after, but we're saying, look, let's watch a week, but There will be some desperate coaches out there that need to <unk> to pull a lever. And look, these guys that are cheapies coming through are going to be very valuable um in the context of some coaches' side's
00:47:36
Holmesy
Beautiful. Lou, why don't you finish us off with your strategy roundtable point?
00:47:41
Lew
Well, that that was pretty much it, mate, backing onto those rookies, avoiding the sub-scores, just playing a bit of a slower game, I suppose, because there's a lot of blokes coming down in price as well. I think um you know Brayshaw has been popular to take in, Sheezle has been popular to take in, Dawson, yeah and rightfully so, ah but just don't ignore this sort of 900 to just under a mil range as well.
Targeting Mid-Priced Players
00:48:08
Lew
I'm seeing a couple of names there that I think can... Sort of kick it with the best of them. Petrarca is certainly one of them. Taranto is up there and about. Noah Anderson's on the way down. Isaac Heaney's priced below 90, for God's sake. isaac ah sorry Chad Warner, um as a forward, is priced at 85. So this's there's guys here that we can get creative with, maybe save a little bit of cash and get that upside on sort of both ends of the trade.
00:48:36
Holmesy
Bloody hell, Lou, you've just taken my whole segment.
00:48:37
Jon Harmey
Yeah,
00:48:39
Holmesy
Fair enough. Harmy, what do you have to say?
00:48:41
Jon Harmey
I was just going to say, with Lou's point there, I mean, you may but it may mean for you that in and the overall balance of your team, that, well, for me, I'll use an example, instead of trading yeah Sam Lawler up to Harry Sheasel, instead you're getting rid of Marais, who may sit there as a red dot, and getting him up to Christian Petrarca instead.
00:49:07
Jon Harmey
And the difference between Petrarca and Sheezil may not be a great deal and you've got an extra scoring player through the buy round.
00:49:12
Lew
Thank you.
00:49:14
Jon Harmey
So that may be the trade-off that you need to make.
00:49:18
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that, Harmi. So, Lou, you kind of just went through it quickly, but we'll go a little bit more in depth.
Is Noah Anderson a Top Midfielder?
00:49:24
Holmesy
So, um famous segments deal from the Plus Six podcast. We're going to do a bit of like or dislike.
00:49:30
Holmesy
So, give ah a like or a dislike on some of these underpriced premiums because I think we do need to to target potentially some of these. If we keep going up to the million-dollar-plus players, then we are going to fall short on cash.
00:49:43
Holmesy
and find ourselves in a little bit of trouble. So picked some names here. i want you to just give a quick like or dislike and a little quick discussion. So Harmi, we haven't heard from you for a while. The first one I've got on the list, Noel Anderson, priced at 99. He's been relatively consistent outside of the James Jordan tag.
00:50:00
Holmesy
Do you think he's someone that could push top eight mid um for a bit of ah a lower price tag?
00:50:07
Jon Harmey
No, I think he's about 100 and we haven't seen it consistently at a high enough level. So um not somebody that I'm really in love with.
00:50:14
Lew
Wow.
00:50:19
Holmesy
Wowee.
00:50:19
Lew
Geez, I, yeah, I think Naira Anderson's sort of the perfect guy to target.
00:50:19
Holmesy
Lou, do you have a different point?
00:50:25
Lew
um ah The big sort of knock on him last season was that he wasn't able to get it done while away, but the Suns look like they're turning that around. Yeah.
00:50:37
Lew
And he wasn't able to get it done in wins, in losses, sorry. The Suns look like they're going turn that around too. don't love the next two matchups up at TIO, but I think Noah Anderson, he's he's second fiddle now. hes He's not going to get the tag over Matt Rau. This is a guy that I think sort of almost... you yeah quintessential fantasy player where he where you can get it done across all stat lines. So for me, I love Noah Anderson. I think priced at 99 potentially for the rest of the year, he could go at a 109 clip and that's 10 points value. So um yeah, thats that's the way I'm seeing it.
00:51:13
Lew
ah But I suppose we will see.
00:51:17
Holmesy
There you go Dislike from Harmy, like from Lou. Sam, I'll go to you for this next one because you're an owner. Jack Sinclair priced at 97 outside of his spike game against Richmond has been pretty underwhelming.
00:51:30
Holmesy
What are your thoughts on Jack Sinclair?
00:51:32
Sam
Yeah, tricky one, but I'm not worried about Jack Sinclair. um He's still got a pretty plum plum role in that Saints team, taking the kick-ins. um Look, he was disappointing on the weekend.
00:51:44
Sam
ah The only thing I can say is that Nazair's moved a bit further up the ground and seems to have just taken ownership of ball movement at the Saints. um Price 97, still think there's upside there for Jack Sinclair, but I'd be waiting just to see when he turns it around.
00:52:02
Lew
Lowest score in in um three and a half years.
00:52:06
Holmesy
Yeah, he's going to bottom out a bit, I think. I i don't think he'll have a spike score against Carlton this week. They've been pretty tough for defenders. So, ah yeah, Jack Sinclair definitely one to keep on the radar as someone that could be serious value over the next few rounds. Lou, talk us through Tim Taranto, priced at 96. Like or dislike is someone you're actually looking to bring in this week?
00:52:06
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:52:28
Lew
Yep, big like. um I think he is their number one man in there. I know that the Tigers aren't scoring the best as a team, but if we look at the market share, Taranto is well and truly out on top. So, yeah, I still like him. ah I think he's probably a 105 guy. And when I look at his...
00:52:49
Lew
fixture that he's already played. There's some pretty legitimate reasons as to why he's maybe underperformed a little bit. There's been a few tags in there. And um look, in terms of matchup, the Eagles this week, ah they're getting absolutely spanked out of the center. And I think ah Tim Taranto is going to be a big part of that continuing. So what a time to to jump on. Priced at 95.
00:53:14
Lew
If you can get a nice big 120 off of him this week, he goes into North Essendon. um And then a bit of a grudge match versus the Giants. ah I think ah I'd want to jump on for this matchup in particular. And then if he is close to that 100 mark, well, at least I've got the pop score.
00:53:31
Holmesy
Yep, fair enough, Lou. I still think Richmond are going to be up and down, which means his scoring will be up and down, but can't argue with that logic. Harmi, Jack Steele's been a favourite of the podcast for many years, priced at 94. Do you think the weekend was a bit of a spike score with Freer being average, or do you think there's scope for him to push back up above that 105 and be value for us?
00:53:55
Lew
Thank
00:53:56
Jon Harmey
I think just hold fire. He's the sort of guy that hasn't looked... like he he's He's looked a bit proppy and stuff. He hasn't looked injury-free a lot of the season. so I mean, he's 162,000 down. He's got a great buy, being that round 13 buy. Maybe we just watch him for the next few weeks and coming off his buy, um he may be the right price to to look at trading in if he's put together some consistent scoring in the next four weeks.
00:54:30
Sam
Seriously um interested in Jack Steele. um Really high CBA. ah This is one I can't explain because, again, Jaden put the stats out today. St Kilda are up in stoppage scores and down in transition scores, and we know where Steele does his best work. I think...
00:54:48
Sam
John Harmy's hit the nail on the head. ah He must be carrying something ah because he's got the role and the the game plan should should suit him.
00:54:52
Holmesy
you
00:54:59
Sam
um So I do think he'll bounce back. And ah he actually has a pretty decent run up until his bye from this week onwards. So certainly one I'm looking at. Louis?
00:55:09
Lew
I understand different price points, but we're we're talking about Jack Steele. We've all got Jack McRae. We're all targeting Matthias Philippou. you know where Where does this all come from is probably what I question and what that mix looks like.
00:55:24
Lew
um Yeah, does does anyone have any strong thoughts there? does does Is it just as simple as Jack Steele has regressed and McRae has already picked up those points and there's a little bit more improvement there for a Philippou or...
00:55:39
Jon Harmey
Steele is not playing anywhere else. He's an on-baller. He's either the defensive on-baller or he's a ball-winning on-baller, and he's not going to be playing off the forward flank or anything like that. So he's a strong CBA mid, and I don't see him doing anything but that as long as he remains injury-free.
00:55:56
Sam
I think you raise good point, Lou. um Maybe he can't get back to his days of, well, I mean, maybe he can get back to 100-105, but you're right, Jack McRae is winning a lot of ball.
00:56:08
Sam
um So perhaps it's that case of he's now the M2, so to speak, in terms of scoring, and maybe he caps out at ninety five to a hundred
00:56:19
Holmesy
Sam, I'll stay with you as a fellow Frio supporter.
Caleb Sorong: Trade Target Concerns
00:56:24
Holmesy
Caleb Sorong, priced at 92. He's had years of, well, I think he went 105, 106, another year above 100. He was only supposed to get better with increased opportunity and and coming into his prime.
00:56:39
Holmesy
What are your thoughts on Caleb Sorong?
00:56:42
Sam
Yeah, I mean, um had his lowest disposal game maybe ever or since his rookie season or something on the weekend.
00:56:48
Holmesy
you
00:56:49
Sam
So look, expect it maybe expect to bounce back from him this week. But no, I mean, his marks have dried up. That's the big thing. He's not spreading for marks. um You know, guys like Matt Johnson and Brayshaw and Nathan O'Driscoll when he was playing were picking up most of the transition marks through the midfield. And I think his directive is just to be and in and under ball window. So with his run coming up, it's not one that I like. I think you have to see a real turnaround before launching into Caleb Sorrell.
00:57:19
Holmesy
I think he could be someone perfect to target off the bye. You're right with that run. So what plays Collingwood this week, which has been tough for for everyone to score against. He then has Port and GWS and another game, I think, before his bye. So likely Bedford tag and then whatever Port do being restrictive.
00:57:39
Holmesy
We don't like trading into these players that are the clear tag target in their team. and and Teams know at the moment that if they shut down Caleb Sorong, that goes a very long way to stopping Freo around the contest, especially when ah there's no O'Meara or Fife or one of those bigger bodies like Hayden Young to to protect the the smaller ones around the contest. so Sorong's not one I'd be targeting this week. He's too good not to bounce back and and get going, but we do worry with these players that have to hit 30, 35 touches just to turn up. um Yeah, not one I'm targeting at the moment, but I can see why coaches are keeping them on the watch list.
00:58:15
Holmesy
Lou, Max Holmes, priced at 89. Someone's typed in ha-ha-ha here in the the run sheet, which hurts me as ah as an owner, but Max Holmes, is he interesting you?
00:58:25
Lew
Yeah,
Max Holmes: Trade Potential Evaluation
00:58:27
Lew
he Yeah, 897K. So priced at 89 is just... He's better than that. He's been better than that for a couple of years now. he's He's just plummeted. I'm not sure if it's bit of an injury that he's carrying or if it's just been a bit of a tougher few matchups for him.
00:58:43
Lew
He's got the Giants this week. I'd be surprised if he's not given a fair bit of attention to and certainly will be if he gets off the chain and then...
00:58:49
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:58:52
Lew
Then comes into Port Adelaide, who we know have always been tough to score against. So ah don't think you're you're making a mistake trading into him this week or next, even though the matchup isn't ideal. I think 89 is probably about the floor that he's going to is going to give you in terms of a buy. um But yeah, after that, I think you're off to the races. You know, Bulldogs into the Eagles, Suns, Essendon, it's...
00:59:19
Lew
It's all coming up roses and he's got that round 16 buy.
00:59:22
Holmesy
Thank
00:59:22
Lew
So I think him in probably one to two weeks is going to be the name on everybody's lips as a bit of a discounted premium.
00:59:33
Holmesy
What I will say, Lou, is that um he actually was out of the CBA rotation a lot more on the weekend. So only 30% CBAs. Now, was that because Tom Stewart was out and they needed a ah cool head back there, potentially? Or maybe it's because he's carrying something at the moment. He doesn't seem to have...
00:59:52
Holmesy
the same work rate and running power that we've come accustomed to for for Max Holmes. So, you know, as an owner, yes, I know everyone's targeting him and he' he's a definite hold, but I'd probably want to see it turn around a little bit first before jumping.
01:00:06
Holmesy
And if he is playing that halfback role, then maybe he doesn't have the ceiling that he has has as a midfielder where he can still run up and down the wings and get tackles. But yeah, definitely one to watch. Let's just whiz...
01:00:17
Lew
Holmes was that was that just the the mullin tag though was it is it as simple as that
01:00:22
Holmesy
Well, Mullen plays for his team, Louis, so probably not the Mullen tag.
01:00:24
Lew
oh sorry yeah yeah that that's a bit silly isn't it I'm just looking at the CBAs here trying to find a reason for for why that's actually occurred but um
01:00:24
Jon Harmey
Yeah, now. Tag and take us. yeah
01:00:30
Holmesy
Personally, I think yeah
01:00:36
Holmesy
i think i think it probably coincides with Tom Stewart being out. I think just getting and another cool head in that back line, they probably thought they could cover the midfield um and that's more important for him to structure-wise to be in defence.
01:00:51
Lew
Yeah.
01:00:51
Holmesy
um But yeah.
01:00:52
Lew
No, hang on. i'm I'm going back to what I said. Mullen was in there on his team.
01:00:54
Jon Harmey
Yeah, tagging Dacos, yeah.
01:00:57
Lew
Yeah, yeah.
01:00:57
Holmesy
Oh, right.
01:00:57
Lew
So so hes he's going to he's going to come out of that midfield mix, I would have thought.
01:00:57
Holmesy
Sorry. Yeah, yeah.
01:01:02
Lew
I think yeah um that would have been a bit of a one-off. So we'll see if that makes the switch back.
01:01:07
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. Sorry about that, mate. Last couple. Harmy, does Isaac Heaney tempt you with an 89 price tag?
01:01:16
Jon Harmey
cool He's still on the way down though, isn't he? So he tempts me if he's a bit cheaper than that.
01:01:22
Holmesy
Yeah, i'm I'm a bit unsure about Heaney. He had, if you look at his scoring last year, I think he was a 105 averaging player up until his bye or just after and and then dropped back to a 95 guy post-bye and we haven't seen him get going yet and we know he had he was ah in Brownlow form for much of last year before he got rubbed out and We do see the regression from the Brownlow.
Isaac Heaney's Scoring Potential
01:01:44
Holmesy
So absolutely, I think he's better than 89. But can he go back to the 100, 105 days to be to be value at his price when it bottoms out potentially? But I think you'd want to see it turn first.
01:01:54
Lew
Thank
01:01:56
Holmesy
Lou, Bailey Dale, priced at 87. Is he a defensive upgrade if we're strapped for cash?
01:02:02
Lew
Um, oh, probably not. Um, I think Bailey Dale is one of those guys that just floats between sort 93 and 95 personally. So, um, there's a little bit of upside there, but I think we can look elsewhere now. there' There's, there's a, there's a couple of other guys that I probably prefer over him that can, uh, that can score a little bit more consistently there.
01:02:28
Holmesy
Harmi, last player for you, just because myself and Lou have been talking about him today. Chad Warner, priced at 87. I suppose the question we need to ask is, because we've already got a lot of forwards, does Chad Warner come in at F6 now that Caleb Daniel's starting to fall down? And if so, what can we see Chad Warner averaging now that he's gone back to a you know a full-time midfield role?
01:02:58
Jon Harmey
Yeah, it's a bit of a hard one, isn't it? Because he he sort of is a good forward as well as being sort of a burst away from the midfield CBA player. So um he's 100 grand down on his starting price. He is available as a forward, which he hasn't always been. I think he's not a bad option, but...
01:03:18
Jon Harmey
I mean, i look, I guess I much prefer a Christian Petrarca in my forward line than Chad Warner. So
Chad Warner as a Forward Option
01:03:24
Jon Harmey
I think he's a good price point, and you could certainly do worse. If someone i was looking to bring him in, ah wouldn't talk you out of it.
01:03:31
Jon Harmey
ah but um as was just yeah my But when I think about fantasy superstars, I don't think of Chad Warner. So 87, he could be 87, couldn't he, for the rest of the season?
01:03:45
Lew
Yeah, he's he's an interesting one. He's he's averaging 101 when he attends 65% CBAs this season.
01:03:51
Jon Harmey
yeah
01:03:52
Lew
So it's a little bit of ah a smaller sample size, but what priced at 87, I think most people would agree that he's closer to that 93, 94 mark.
01:04:00
Holmesy
Thank you.
01:04:04
Lew
um And he has been pretty consistent the last couple of years. So if we do want to go off of that, then um that average sort of looks like a 97, 98 from here if he's going to get there. So...
01:04:15
Jon Harmey
yeah
01:04:15
Lew
um Look, I don't mind the pick. I think this is, as you mentioned earlier, Harmi, this is sort of the area that maybe be coaches that are struggling for some cash or maybe want to just pull back a little bit and save some cash for a little bit later on in the season.
01:04:30
Lew
This is the sort of player I'd be really considering, especially with that forward status. You can hide behind that a little bit because I just don't see a world where Chad Warner isn't at least nipping at the heels of a top six forward for the rest of the year.
01:04:45
Holmesy
Yeah, the the reason I'm sort of considering it is I'm still a little bit nervous after Xavier Lindsay on the weekend. i'd I'd like to get one more rookie off field. And if I can get two bench rookies up to a Chad Warner in the midfield um and then from there get the midfield rookie off and then swing Warner forward when it's time to trade Caleb Daniel or whatever that looks like, um then that's ah a play to get Caleb Daniel up to whoever I want in the midfield. So that's why I'm sort of looking at it.
01:05:13
Holmesy
It does come with risk, but I still think Chad Warner, at a minimum, isn't going to drop in price. um I think he's better than 87. I think probably lands somewhere around 95 unless teams start to tag him, which we see that they do, but Heaney's still pretty good as well, who's who's attracting attention, Harmi.
01:05:31
Jon Harmey
Yeah, well, let's have a look at this, though. They've got the Bombers, then Carlton.
01:05:36
Lew
Grain?
01:05:36
Holmesy
Easy matchup.
01:05:37
Jon Harmey
Yep, Carlton.
01:05:38
Lew
Grain?
01:05:40
Jon Harmey
Melbourne.
01:05:41
Lew
Grain?
01:05:42
Holmesy
Green.
01:05:43
Jon Harmey
Adelaide.
01:05:45
Holmesy
Thank
01:05:45
Jon Harmey
Richmond.
01:05:45
Lew
I'm not sure. Grain?
01:05:48
Jon Harmey
Yeah, and then they buy. So coming into his buy, that's a pretty nice run, isn't it? After the buy, you know, port, difficult, gets a little bit more difficult, but that's a nice run coming into their buy.
01:06:01
Holmesy
Yep. Yeah, definitely someone I'm considering. Lads, thank you for jumping on today. Really appreciate it. Harmi, nice of you to grace us with your presence. um Are you only going to be on next week if Hugo Garcia goes well? So we're praying for Filipu to miss another week with that corky.
01:06:19
Jon Harmey
Yep, as I said, planning on having Garcia sitting on the bench with the emergency on on Friday night.
01:06:27
Lew
ah did I did see John Ralph tweet out, actually, that potentially Philippou will be coming through the VFL. So we'll see if that's that's the case.
01:06:34
Jon Harmey
Okay.
01:06:35
Lew
But I don't know if John Ralph's got any clue whatsoever. so
01:06:39
Jon Harmey
Bomb supporter, isn't he? So he must be a smart guy.
01:06:40
Holmesy
wouldnina Wouldn't surprise me with not wanting to change that 22 after such a good performance against Frio. Coaches do like to keep things much the same if the team performs like that. But as always, make sure you're following us on X at PodPod AFL at HolmesesHeroes.
01:06:58
Holmesy
Harmy at John Harmy. Lou, what are you? At AFLoo, I think it is.
01:07:02
Lew
Yeah, something like that.
01:07:02
Holmesy
um Make sure you're... Yeah, yeah, you'll be able to find us. Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your content. There was no questions today, but as always, head over to askmeonq.com forward slash podpodafl if you want any of the panel members to answer your specific podcasts.
01:07:20
Holmesy
We'll be back next week with a big buy-around special. We may even see if we can ah get it the old great man to jump on to give us some buy-around wisdom. We can't guarantee that, but have another good week and we'll see you guys next week.