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Captain Carnage | Strategy and Structure | AFL Fantasy Q&A #PODPOD
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The bye rounds have been and gone and AFL Fantasy is back to full blown best 22s. Coaches with sound structures were able to capitalise whilst others found themselves wanting with poor captain choices and losing out on rookie roulette. We say it every year, but this is the time when rankings can shift the most as coaches who have been patiently building their team value look to attack.
On this episode, Holmesy, Harmey and Lewy review the round that was. They tackle a stack of hot topics as they round table all of the key strategy talking points, They also discuss a bunch of relevant trade out players, targets whilst answering a stack of listener questions!
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Transcript
Introduction and Weekend Recap
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Tuesday, 15th of April. We're recording Tuesday this week. We were going to go Monday, ah but unfortunately, Louis had a ah weekend on the beers. He just couldn't front up for the show yesterday, too depressed after Gather Round.
00:00:39
Holmesy
But we're here today. Lou, how was your weekend in ah and Gather Round?
00:00:45
Lew
Well, it's probably not too far from the truth, but yeah, I didn't ah ah had a couple of people staying in my spare room where my computer is, so wasn't able to do the pod yesterday, but um yeah, what what a weekend. it was It was fantastic. Adelaide turned it up with some beautiful weather. 270,000 people got down to all the games accumulatively, and it was um just a blast. It was a fantastic vibe and managed to catch up with plenty of um fantasy people in the space and and a couple of... ah fans and and And it was it was great.
Weekend Highlights and Personal Updates
00:01:16
Lew
yeah
00:01:17
Holmesy
ah I'll put you on the spot here. What's your what's your one highlight from the weekend?
00:01:22
Lew
Well, it was pretty good on Sunday night, I have to say. um All the crowd sort of doing the aeroplane when the Hawks went down, was it was pretty nice.
00:01:34
Holmesy
You've done nothing but bash Ken for the last three years on this podcast and yet you're pulling that out. Unbelievable.
00:01:42
Lew
Yeah, kent Ken's a dead man walking, so I don't care.
00:01:48
Holmesy
Fair enough, mate. And we've got two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019, John Harmy with us this week. Harmy, how your weekend?
00:01:56
Jon Harmey
I wasn't too bad, Holmesy. Yeah, caught a little bit of the footy, but I've got a bit going on with some housemen. So didn't see as much as i would like. actually had the yeah the ABC radio coverage going for a little bit. That was actually quite cool, something different.
00:02:14
Holmesy
Yeah, beautiful. and And no Sam this week. he's He's a bit busy, but he would like us to just relay to the listeners that he's mute he's moved into a career best rank of 825. So inside the top 1,000, which actually makes two coaches here on the Pod Pod inside the top 1,000, which we'll get to in a little bit. So the boys are in form.
00:02:34
Holmesy
Can't say the same for me and Harmi, but Harmi, as they say, form is temporary, class is permanent. So I'm sure we'll... Sure, we'll climb up the ranks soon. But Harmi, why don't you start us off with your ah rank and score for the weekend?
00:02:50
Jon Harmey
Yes, look, I was battling a little bit when I ah saw the teams announced and and that sort of thing as we went into the games. Had the awesome foursome of O'Driscoll Day, then Tom Stewart's gastro and Sam Lawler's hip. So four on-field players for me disappeared.
00:03:10
Jon Harmey
so obviously you could only trade out two, so it was a bit of a shame. um But put up 2-0-1-0 and then... and they I've broken the dossier ranks. I'm into the top 20,000 homesies. So, yeah, moved up a couple of thousand spots to 19,500.
00:03:28
Holmesy
Beautiful. Anytime you improve rank, it's always a a good thing. I was second on the podcast, so I had 27-7 this week, which is actually not too bad considering some of the things that happened to us and myself over the weekend, which we will get
Fantasy League Updates and Player Performances
00:03:43
Holmesy
to. But Lou, you got me by four points, I believe.
00:03:47
Lew
Yeah, I just got a 2081, so a bit more of a modest week, but still managed to move up a couple of ranks, which was nice to see.
00:03:56
Holmesy
Yep, I did forget to mention that I yeah moved up a couple of thousand ranks up into 5,400. So steadily steadily moving up and and hoping to bounce over the next couple of weeks with some cash ready to go on the field. Harmi, why don't you start us off with your Stato and Dossie picks for the week?
00:04:14
Jon Harmey
Yep, Stato a pick for me. And he what a bounce back by big Maxie Gorn. The Bombers, obviously too strong on the day. Awesome team, really surging up the ladder.
00:04:25
Jon Harmey
But but Max Gorn, I mean, once Nick Bryan went down down sorry with that knee injury, it only Draper V.
00:04:29
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:04:34
Jon Harmey
Gorn. And Max did some nice things, 118. So that was that was good to see. My dossie pick, I think that I'm not sure if we're all owners here, but there are a few messages punching out in the first quarter there to note the Jackson Pryor on field over Zach Reid debacle.
00:04:54
Jon Harmey
So Pryor putting up 45 points is pretty hard to watch and I'm feeling as though the the time may be coming for him to leave our sides.
00:04:57
Lew
you
00:05:06
Holmesy
Yeah, that one hurts. That really does. Reid, in hindsight, was definitely the better pick. um you cut Yeah, they were averaging pretty much the same. We'd seen some small defenders go well against Melbourne, Jake Bowie and a couple of others. So you you would have hoped Reid would have... asked Sorry, Pryor would have got more than 45. I think he had a donut in the last quarter, actually, which which hurts in in a bit of party time. But yeah, no good and definitely planning to move him to the bench this week. Lou, why don't you give us your picks?
00:05:34
Lew
ah Yes, my Stato pick of the week is Andrew Brayshaw on debut. So 123 was nice to see, had a nice match up there and he's he's got another couple to come. So ah good to get one on the board nice and early. And my Dossie pick of the week has got to go to Kane Farrell.
00:05:53
Lew
um I've been wanting to get rid of him for two weeks and... ah Sort of ah that nod, that noddy injury stitched me up there. So I had to hold him and cross the fingers that he can do something against the Hawks. And his 62 was pretty grim to watch. So it's time for Kane Farrell to go. He's just not playing the role that we need him to play.
00:06:14
Holmesy
Do know he doesn't even step out of the square sometimes when he kicks in too?
00:06:17
Lew
Yeah, I know. yeah It's ridiculous. it's um You compare that to Ryan Marich, who's, you know, hop, skipping a jump out the square before he kicks it. And it's, yeah, it hurts.
00:06:27
Holmesy
Yep, and now Connor Rosey's back there um eating up some of those points as well. So yeah, has to go and and fingers crossed for all of our sakes that ah we don't get some injuries this week like we did last week and he can be banished never to return.
00:06:42
Holmesy
My Stato pick for the week and far out, the the weekend started pretty well for me on Thursday night. Max Holmes, career best 133. starting to realize why he's he' getting tagged every second week. he's ah He's a gun footballer. He tackles, he marks, kicks goals. He does everything in that Geelong midfield at the moment. So yeah, he's averaging close to 100, which has been a pretty good pick.
00:07:07
Holmesy
Can't help but think that the tags are going to continue to come, but I'm going to enjoy owning him on those weeks that he doesn't get those tags. And Lou, this one, especially for myself and you, really hurts. But Tom De Koning, we decided to go with him as captain.
00:07:23
Holmesy
We were were pretty upset at the time, but the process was there.
00:07:27
Lew
Thank you.
00:07:27
Holmesy
you He'd had two 130 scores and a 110 where he got sat on the bench for 10 minutes in that last quarter. He was flying early in that previous game before he tied out. Going into the eagle Eagles, which is the easiest ruck matchup, plus one of the easiest matchups for midfielders, everything was pointing to him having a big game. Carlton had a big game and and he just didn't get it done, did he, Luke?
00:07:48
Lew
No, and um thankfully I wasn't watching that game. I was out on the boat fishing. So was a bit of immediate therapy as I was um not listening to his name be called on the radio. But so yeahre right you're right, Holmesy. I think there's probably a lot of coaches that woke up on on Sunday morning a little bit flat that they had Captain Tom DeConing. But...
00:08:08
Lew
It happens. um Matt Mottram, who won the competition a couple of years ago, he captained Callum Mills for a 52 and he went on to win the Hilux. So it shows that there's ebbs and flows, swings and roundabouts. And um you might've copped it this week, but then the following week you might have um coaches get the shit end of the stick. I know I wasn't a steward owner a couple of weeks ago um and you know I got an advantage out of that. So ah Look at it as the big picture. like you said, Holmes, the process was correct there. So I don't think you can beat yourself up over those ones.
00:08:44
Holmesy
Beautiful. Now, before we get into some other stuff, let's start let's rate our trades and talk a little bit of about process and what we we're thinking this week. Harmi, so what were your trades and what were looking to achieve this week or last week?
00:08:55
Jon Harmey
Yeah, oh well, as I said, I had some forced trades in the week just gone, which was, don't wasn't ideal. But anyway, I went to Odriskel down to Riley Bice, put him on field, so that was cool.
00:09:09
Jon Harmey
And i then I had Will Day, who I um moved up to Brayshaw and also carried across about $100,000 for this week's trades. So I also captained Brayshaw for his $123,000, so that that worked out pretty well.
Strategy and Trade Discussions
00:09:26
Holmesy
Yeah, look, and that's that's the same for myself as well, copying the O'Driscoll injury, and who's pretty popular, and and then Will Day, which was which was pretty unfortunate. we We would have traded him at his buy if we had have known he was injured. That one's just unlucky.
00:09:40
Holmesy
um I did the same. I went O'Driscoll, but down to Cleary um as I got biased the week before, and
00:09:44
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:09:46
Holmesy
I think that's holding me in pretty good stead, to be honest, um being just a ah step ahead of some of these good rookie trade-ins and and hopefully they can continue going on, um which allowed me to get, yeah, day up to Brayshaw. And I've actually got 327K in the bank to to attack this week. so So looking to use some of that coin. Lou, what do you do?
00:10:05
Lew
ah My trades were Sam Deconing down to Riley Bice Noddy across to Brayshaw. pretty straight bat there and pretty happy with the result. I've got 177k to play with this week. So um that'll be going on top of Farrell's head, no doubt.
00:10:22
Holmesy
Yep, fingers crossed. ah Quick update on the Pod Pod Challenge. So we have, at the moment, six coaches inside of the top 100. one hundred So that's that's building. a Shout out to, I think it's Cam's team, the plus six cents, who I think he finished 101 a few years back um had ah Had a round rank of about six and it skyrocketed him into 97. So that's pretty cool to see.
00:10:44
Holmesy
um You've got Daddy Danny Rich sitting at 10th and Screamy Eagle sitting at 13th. So some pretty high rankings there. Shuck is still hanging around at 36th. Daryl's Dodgers at 55 and Cam's Captains at 65. So just a reminder that the winner of the Pod Pod Challenge this year will receive ah a custom AFL Fantasy ring from the guys over at supercoachchampion.com. So if you need a ring, um go over and and check those guys out and and what they offer over there.
00:11:11
Holmesy
Boys, let's get into some hot topics now. ah first First off the ranks before we get into some strategy chat, DPP edition. So we're not going to go over too much, but there are a few things I want to highlight. First off, just some players that have added defensive status. So Rory Laird, Josh Dacos, two players that we thought might be able to push around that sort of top six to 10 defenders at some point. Not really putting up the numbers now, but...
00:11:38
Holmesy
Just one to put in the back of the mind for later if they do start to get on a bit of a run. Jasper Fletch is a bit of an interesting one, Lou. I don't know if you've been following what the Bulldogs have been doing, but 98-101 in his last two, coinciding with Zorko being down a little bit. he's He's looking fantastic and distributing well off that back line. Is he someone that interests you at mid-600 price range?
00:12:01
Lew
Yeah, definitely. He's one that's had a bit of a role change and sort of noticed it in the preseason, actually. he was absolutely flying and probably underperformed in round one with the 36, but he's he's gone bang since then. And I think as a little cheap option, if you're struggling for cash this week, I think Jasper Fletcher, given his next couple of games, might be one that you might be able to ride the price cycle up.
00:12:27
Holmesy
Yeah, on I'm interested. I've picked him up in in a few draft leagues and stuff. He's looking really good. we've We've spoken about that Brisbane run. ah can't help but think that Zorko is going to get back to doing Zorko things at some point in the next couple of games and and that might mean that Jasper Fletcher doesn't score as well. But um Can't knock what he's doing at the moment and far out. If we went him over Farrell a few weeks ago, then we would be absolutely flying.
00:12:54
Holmesy
ah There's been a number of rookies that have picked up an extra position. So Ashcroft, Fino Sullivan, Stone, Hastie, Draper, Warner, Henderson, just to name a few. So that's going to add a fair bit of flexibility into our sides.
00:13:06
Holmesy
But the main topic that I want to hit on before we move on is some key players that have picked up forward status. So we've got Nick Martin, Christian Petrarca and Chad Warner all picking up forward status.
00:13:20
Holmesy
I'll start with you, Louis, and we'll go into them in a little bit more depth. But which out of these three players interest you the most?
00:13:28
Lew
ah Look, for me, it's probably Nick Martin, then Petrarca, and a little bit of distance to Chad Warner. And that's just because Nick Martin's DPP status, I think that could prove quite fruitful for us in not getting as much value as a Christian Petrarca, which is why i also like that pick. but um I don't think there's anything wrong with paying a fair price either.
00:13:51
Lew
And if we're able to flick a Nick Martin forward and back, depending on the rookie matches, ah matchups and potentially even loop them if possible, um then there may be a couple of invisible points that you might be picking up week to week there.
00:13:53
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:14:06
Holmesy
Harmi, I'll throw to you as the the Bombers man. um So Nick Martin, not playing that halfback role that he had at the start of the year where his numbers were but quite piggish. But speaking to some other Bombers fans, Liam from the Free Kick podcast, he seems to think that Nick Martin had moved away from that halfback role late last year and and he was still scoring around that sort of 105 mark from the wing and and being a little bit higher up the ground.
00:14:32
Holmesy
Do you think that that sort of scoring sustainable for for Nick Martin in this role? Or do you think that, you know, there's going to be some 120s, 130s, but there's also going to be some 70s and that might sort of bring his average down to that sort of 90, 95. Do you think, are we overthinking Nick Martin?
00:14:48
Jon Harmey
ah Yeah, lot I think the latter, probably Holmes. I think there's too much of inconsistency in the scoring off that forward flank. I mean, he had a good game on the weekend, but we have seen some lower scores from him. um Yeah, I don't really know what I would put him at by way of an average from here on in, but...
00:15:09
Jon Harmey
um but Well, Lou Haddamers being ah Nick Martin, then Petrarca, then a bit of a gap and Warner. I actually would prefer Petrarca. He's priced 10 points cheaper than Martin and I think that he'll average as much, if not more probably. I think that Petrarca's a touch over 100 averaging p player. It should be from here on in.
00:15:33
Jon Harmey
Melbourne are rock bottom, so he's probably one that I am a bit interested in.
00:15:39
Lew
Didn't Petrarca spend more time forward on the weekend than he has all year?
00:15:42
Jon Harmey
ah The week before, I think that was the week before I'd done it.
00:15:44
Holmesy
No, he's bounced.
00:15:45
Lew
Or he's bounced back, has he?
00:15:45
Holmesy
So I had a look at this. Yeah, so he had 80% CBAs in round one. And then there was three games in a row where he's had between sort of 45% to 55% CBAs.
00:15:57
Holmesy
And then he was back up to 65%. Now, I didn't watch the game. So I ah couldn't tell you whether it was a starting in the midfield and then pushing forward type of CBA role. I'd have to go back and watch, which let's be honest, I'm not going to do that at the moment. But I suppose the the talking point that I want to hit on is there's been five games now, Lou.
00:16:16
Holmesy
um So we've got a fair bit of data. And the the top six forwards as they stand currently. So we've got Bailey Smith, who's a level above at the moment. Jai Simpkin um averaging well over 100, which no one really could have seen this coming.
00:16:31
Holmesy
You've got Jack McRae and Caleb Daniel averaging over 100, Toby Green averaging 100, and then Sam Darcy averaging 95. So I suppose out of those top six forwards currently, do we see a Christian Petrarca and a Nick Martin entering that conversation alongside Jason Horne-Francis and Isaac Rankin that are there, thereabouts?
00:16:53
Lew
ah Yeah, I do. I think they're all potentially 100 guys. So, um yeah, I think even, as I said last week, I'd knock Isaac Rankin down a bit um comparatively to those players. So, I'll just expand on why like Martin, um and that's just because of this fixture that's coming up and the time on ground that he's actually spending. So,
00:17:17
Lew
um i think if you're going to go a martin you want him this week against the eagles at optus he's averaging 95 time on ground he's he's clearly that link in the chain that's connecting up um the bombers and i think he's one that they look to just for his his disposal and just his effectiveness with the ball he's never going to cop the tag either he's got zach merit there that's going to run around and and cop that so That's probably why I've just got him ahead in terms of scoring. But, um geez, you can't really knock Petrarca. I think at the $879K price tag that he's at, um he certainly reflects value. And next week, I think he starts with Richmond and then and then West Coast. So um that's a Thursday night next week. If you wanted to jump this week, by all means, do it if you want to get in early.
00:18:05
Holmesy
I'll tell you what, Christian Petrarca, if they lose to Freo this week and then they lose to Richmond the week after and they go 0-7 and they maybe lose their coach, what's the what's the caretaker coach going to do? Come in, I'd say it'd be Clayton Oliver, Christian Petrarca, straight in the midfield, 70%, 80%, and then he absolutely becomes even more of an option. So, yeah, I like Petrarca.
00:18:27
Holmesy
Do have a bit of PTSD? He ruined my season last year. He ruined it the year before. Yeah. But yeah, I suppose the thing that worries me about Melbourne, Harmi, is that they're just not scoring because they're just so bad at football at the moment.
00:18:41
Jon Harmey
Oh, so bad.
00:18:43
Holmesy
And the thing about Petrarca is he he gets off to a hot start, but then what happens? Melbourne can't score and it's just Petrarca up forward and they can't they can't get in the ball. So... Yeah, i think I think I'm Nick Martin over Petrarca at the moment, but they're both options.
00:18:59
Holmesy
It'll just be yeah whether you go this week. I think Petrarca, you could probably wait to see how he goes against Freo and to see if that role does stick
Team Structure and Roster Management
00:19:06
Lew
Thank
00:19:06
Holmesy
um and if he doesn't go back to the 50% CBAs and then launch next week, Harmi.
00:19:11
Jon Harmey
like But if you've got Nick Martin as a defender, you're going to leave him in your defence, aren't you? Because there's bloody stuff all good defenders just at the minute.
00:19:21
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, that's fair. But as Louis said, the the flexibility is going to be pretty handy as well to be able to flick them all around. we'll We'll stay there, Harmi, because the next hot topic that I've got that I want to discuss is the rookies in defence.
00:19:33
Holmesy
So what I want to discuss, and and Lou, I might give you the floor because you were pretty big on this in the pre-season and early as a lot of coaches have moved to that two-rookie defence and that paid off this week with Treynor and Reid going large.
00:19:47
Holmesy
There's talk of some coaches, myself included, are looking to go to a three-rookie defence, knowing that some of these rookies have better scoring and and better best 22 prospects than some of our midfield and forward rookies. But the floor is yours. Do you think a two-rookie defence or a three-rookie defence?
00:20:04
Lew
Oh, look, the less rookies, the better. So I see why coaches are really interested in a three-rookie defender line. And look, I'll be honest, this week there's a good chance I'll be churning that out through a little bit of DPP just because these guys are scoring the best on our field. but um I am hesitant of locking into three rookies just because you know it's rookie roulette every single week. And you know if two of these guys start to drop off, um they've played six games of footy now, they might start to get a bit tired.
00:20:37
Lew
Quite quickly, yeahre you're chasing your tail and you you might find yourself a bit behind and having to chase um players positionally rather than sort of the best available week to week. So...
00:20:48
Lew
um that's why I'm hesitant. You know, you don't want to get caught out there. It's going to be hard to get up to a defender, like you said before, Harmy, because there is so much cash on some of these guys' head.
00:20:59
Lew
Of course, you've got some get-outs like a Tom Stewart, maybe a James Sicily that you can go a one-up, one-down rookie to, and that's probably the direction I'd be looking towards if I had that three-rookie defense just as a contingency plan. But... so um And it's tough to really build a a case against it because Luke Trainor, he's going at 67, 74 in his last three. Riley Bias, he's almost not even a rookie. I could seriously see this guy going at 80, 85 for the rest of the year.
00:21:32
Lew
And Zach Reid, look, he's he's been fantastic. He's averaged 72, but I can't help but feel like there's going to be a bad one in there at some point. So, yeah, it's ah it's all about risk management, isn't it?
00:21:46
Holmesy
Harmi, do you think the the three rookie defense, and and we'll we'll call it two because, yeah, as Louis said, at the moment, bias, it doesn't matter because everyone's playing him and he's he's scoring well. Do you think that's only really a play for for some of the coaches that got stitched up with ah an O'Connell injury or another red dot and they're able to loop there? Do you think that having you know relying on Reid and Treynor for the next couple of weeks, three weeks, four weeks on field without a loop option is too risky?
00:22:15
Jon Harmey
I think it is because it it really doesn't take much for that to go sour pretty quick, doesn't it? Like it's either a slight role change in injury you're you know throwing a full restructure in order to try and address it. So, yeah, I i think that two would be the maximum I'd be comfortable with pursuing and and I guess I would have been ah well Well, I was two on field, but that was only because Stuart was that out. So um I would have been pursuing two um on field last week if I didn't have injuries and I'd be pretty comfortable with that. But, you know, three, I think is getting a bit much because, you know, then also who's on your bench as well as rookies because they wouldn't be providing much um support if there were an injury. So, yeah, I'd be a bit sceptical of having three, mate.
00:23:06
Holmesy
Yeah, and as good as trainers been, we we know what happens with these first-year rookies. They tire, they they get rest. you know You've got Noah Bolter probably coming back in at some point soon and unless he goes to jail, touch yeah unfortunate. But they played Gold Coast this week as well who have actually been quite restrictive to to transition points and and actually been a lot tougher this year. So...
00:23:28
Holmesy
yeah you know If you cop to 30 from one of those guys, then then you're in a bit a world of hurt. so maybe Maybe it's this week and you need to restructure the week after to get up to one of these other players. but yeah i'm ah I'm still a little bit nervous just because of what can happen.
00:23:45
Holmesy
Next one I want to touch on is just ah talking a little bit about our D6 M8 F6 and which is the biggest priority to upgrade at the moment, Lou. So i we we all got burned by a Jackson Pryor 45.
00:23:59
Holmesy
um Davidson, you know, i got pretty lucky to get to that 57. I had a ah Xavier Lindsay 49 at M8, which wasn't ideal. So... Where do you think the biggest priority at the moment is out of those three positions? Maybe you can give us what those are in your team and and where you think we need to be you know spending our money to to fix.
00:24:19
Lew
Well, think we can rule out the forward line, right? So most coaches have a McRae, a Smith, a Daniel. Perhaps they've got a Horn Francis and a Rankin as well. Ryan Marich is an option, Levi Ashcroft. um I don't think Sam Davidson is throw the toys out sort of thing. He's got the Saints this week. He could be a guy that...
00:24:41
Lew
that we're comfortably fielding at F6. And Caden Cleary too, who's put up, what, back-to-back 80s now, I think is an option there. So ah think, yeah, with that amount of options in the forward line, we can probably leave that be, play a bit of loop week to week or, you know, just play the matchups.
00:24:59
Lew
I think M8 and D6 could be where things start to get hairy. I know we just spoke about the defensive rookies sort of performing better than some of the others. Still think there's going to be an expiry date on that.
00:25:11
Lew
But yeah, suppose my answer would probably be M8. That's where coach's bums are starting to show, be it a sort of a Hugo Garcia if he drops a stinker, a Christian Marais on the weekend with a 40 week to week. You know, he's a winger. What does that entail?
00:25:28
Lew
Xavier Lindsay, um you know, they just didn't didn't want to pass it to him on the weekend. Is is that... um the beginning of a trend or is it just, you know, a young player returning and just didn't get on the end of it? But that's probably where my nervousness comes from is that M8 position at the moment.
00:25:47
Holmesy
Harmi, are you the same with those thoughts?
00:25:52
Jon Harmey
um ah I'm a little bit torn. but I'll just talk through some of these because i'm a little bit torn with some of my decisions. um Would you have Davidson or Garcia on field? Because that's a question for me.
00:26:05
Jon Harmey
So what are you?
00:26:05
Holmesy
Garcia. Easily Garcia, I think.
00:26:08
Jon Harmey
Lou?
00:26:09
Lew
Yeah, um I'm um um' actually Davidson under the roof against the Saints.
00:26:14
Jon Harmey
So a bit hard to tell. Well, that's where I am at with M8 and... m mit and
00:26:18
Lew
I don't think there's going to be many points between those two.
00:26:24
Jon Harmey
ah And then D, well, yeah, Riley Bice is my D6 currently. So, but I'm looking at changing that a little bit.
00:26:37
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I want to upgrade either my M8 or my D6 this week, um I suppose. And I'm just toying with who that is and what it is because I want to try and bring in Dacos and one of those players, ah that sort of 550 price bracket is my avenue to get there.
00:26:59
Holmesy
Yeah, I think I'm personally, I think it's D6 for me that, I mean, if you're assuming that bias is d five we we have just spoken about the defensive rookies putting up scores this week, but we all know that can change at the end of the day. The ones that we've got are all lockdown defenders.
00:27:14
Holmesy
um that You know, Reid has a good matchup against the Eagles this week, um but that could all change over the next couple. So I think that the defensive line still is the one that you look to get up just because there's a lot of flexibility with our and midfield and and forward rookies now with a lot of them having mid-forward status and and being able to loop and and potentially play the the looping game.
00:27:36
Holmesy
Harmi, I'll stick with you now. I just wanted some quick advice here for some of the listeners in terms of navigating the Easter weekend round of footy because it is a little bit different.
00:27:40
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:27:45
Holmesy
um The North Carlton game is going to start before we have the final teams on Friday. And then we're not going to get the Geelong Hawthorne teams all the way until Sunday night. So what advice do you have for the listeners in terms of are planning their trades for this week?
00:28:02
Jon Harmey
Well, I suppose it's ah it's one of those rounds where I'm pretty keen to have a fairly solid plan of my trades. um And I also wouldn't be relying on those loops for your captaincy or for getting a player on field.
00:28:19
Jon Harmey
Even last week, I was kind of hopeful that Connor Stone would be dropped so that I could use um that red dot in either my midfield or... ah yeah was Sorry, it was for my forward with Garcia and Davidson. So...
00:28:32
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I guess um I'd just be making sure that I'm either planning my trades to get them done early or holding one in reserve if you're uncertain about, um well, bloody Geelong, isn't it?
00:28:36
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:28:46
Jon Harmey
It's just Geelong. Isn't that funny that it's them on the Monday that you're not going to see any visibility on? but um Anyway, yeah, probably if you're 50-50, if you're flirting with the idea of using a ah loophole for the captaincy, you'd want to make sure that it's very early in the piece.
00:29:04
Lew
Yeah, just to tack on to that too, if if you're making your trades, I'd do it in a way that you're able to comfortably edit them um just in case there's some changes later
Trade Tactics and Player Evaluations
00:29:13
Lew
on in the week. you know Geelong and Hawthorne on the Mondays just isn't ideal. So whether that's using your utility, so it makes it nice and easy.
00:29:22
Lew
um You just never know. You want to cover your bases there.
00:29:26
Holmesy
Unfortunately, Lou, the words comfortable and edit don't actually go hand in hand on the AFL fantasy platform. But yeah, look, I'd agree. um At this point in time, I'm looking to lock in both my trades on Thursday night, which does make me a little bit nervous.
00:29:41
Holmesy
um But yeah, maybe just having the flexibility to edit, you know, if it's a rookie that you're trading out early, being able to edit them to another rookie that plays later on, if that if that rookie yeah gets named as the sub or they're out or whatever, um just to make sure you don't get caught, you know, holding on to a rookie that's going have a sub score in there.
00:30:01
Holmesy
in their cash rise and, and, and get rid of all their cash. So yeah, great, great advice there. Harmy, Lou, the next bit I want to hit on is the failing rocks. So preseason, it was how many of these rocks are going to average above one 10, one 15 as they did last year. And, and a lot of them are, a lot of them are failing at the moment. Mainly I want to talk now about TDK and and Tristan Cherry.
00:30:25
Holmesy
ah TDK, you know With the injuries at Carlton, maybe Pitnett comes in. I'm not convinced he comes in this week. He hasn't played a lot of footy. i think it would be madness for them to bring him in without any fitness base through the VFL.
00:30:39
Holmesy
But he's on the horizon. Cherry now has three 70s in a row and is absolutely bleeding cash. He's clearly not right. we keep We keep seeing in this echo chamber that, you know, don't trade your rucks at the moment because who would you go to?
00:30:53
Holmesy
a lot of them are failing. We're all in the same boat. But the fact of the matter is to be successful at this game is to get off players when other coaches aren't doing it um so that you can get a leg up. So I'll start with Tristan Cherry.
00:31:05
Holmesy
Is there a world where you jump off?
00:31:07
Lew
Absolutely. Yeah. If, if um as you said ah the yeah before the show, Kyle, he's got hamstring tendinitis, that's not going to go away. That's that's going to be managed.
00:31:16
Holmesy
I said that that they're saying that it's potentially that, Louis.
00:31:19
Lew
Potentially.
00:31:20
Holmesy
Nothing confirmed.
00:31:21
Lew
But he's he's clearly hampered. I mean, you you watch a North game at the moment and Tristan Cherry's on one leg. So he keeps playing, he's going to continue to drop cash and most Cherry owners probably started him. So at that 1.2 mil price tag, you've lost 200K.
00:31:39
Lew
um It's a bit of a sunk cost now. i ah think I'd be looking maybe if you want to trade him to get creative with a Briggs or a Darcy type and then get up on the other end um In which case, you know potentially that's a double upgrade if Cherry um or a TDK alongside Pitnet continues to underperform.
00:31:53
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:32:00
Lew
But it it is tricky because um some of these big dog rocks, they're on the way down as well. So part of me wants to just wait and see how the landscape settles um and jump across for you know a small fee.
00:32:14
Holmesy
is it Is it a case of now or never, Lou? I mean, he ah think he's I don't have the exact price, but I think he's high 900s at the moment, break even at 150. If you wait another week and he drops another 70K, we're all going to be looking at him closely as someone to potentially grab at some point soon.
00:32:30
Lew
Yeah. And that's just it, isn't it? So it's, for me, I think personally, I would just stick fat um and it's going to be a bit of a tough watch. But like you said, coaches are going to be jumping across from like a Tom De Koning in probably two, three weeks time when when Cherry bottoms out, if he looks like he's going to turn that form around. So um As cases for both, I'd probably prefer just to hold and improve the the team around him because um if you're messing around in the rucks, then you're you're not doing something on your bench generally. So um that's where I'd probably lean.
00:33:07
Jon Harmey
Look, the thing is, he's a million dollar guy that's putting up 70s. So, I mean, it'd have to be a pretty luxury trade.
00:33:18
Jon Harmey
But if you had the ability to move off, I reckon that's probably not a bad idea. um he is quite clearly carrying an injury and he is not performing what you need out of him. So I reckon there's a real option to move there. I'll tell you one thing, though, with all of those rucks, um the trade targets, so I had a bit of a look at this the other day.
00:33:43
Jon Harmey
i think there's only really one ruck option to trade in you'd be looking at at the moment, and that's Kieran Briggs. because he's about twenty is priced about 20 points below what his output should be.
00:33:57
Jon Harmey
So he's really the only one that you could say he's undervalued at this point in time.
00:34:03
Holmesy
So you just completely off of Rowan Marshall at the moment, Harmi. Don't get me wrong. He's back-to-back 75s, priced at 104. We've seen him do this. We've seen him go back-to-back 60s and then the next week go a 150 and all of a sudden everything's reset. But he's looking he's looking hampered. Do you think that the lack of pre-seasons sort of catching up to him and and he's not an option at the moment?
00:34:25
Jon Harmey
Well, at the moment, I think your comment is right. Yes, I would be off him. And we would need to see some consistent scoring or around, ah you know, all over 100 points to consider him as a trading option.
00:34:39
Jon Harmey
Otherwise, it's just speculating.
00:34:39
Holmesy
Lou, no interest in a Darcy Cameron who just quietly is getting it done as R1 at the moment.
00:34:49
Lew
I think there has to be some interest there. I'm umm probably looking at other options that have had a few more runs on the board, but come the end of year, if there's a couple of successful coaches out there that identified and jumped on Darcy Cameron nice and early, it wouldn't surprise me at all.
00:35:04
Lew
He's clearly got the pedigree. When he was a bit younger, he was an absolute pig in the twos, and um I think he's finally found his feet at the pies, and it looks like his role has improved again with no Mason Cox.
00:35:17
Holmesy
Yeah, look, he just quietly has almost been the picker the pick of the rucks this bully. He's the highest averaging ruck. He had that buy to start, which turned some off, but I know some good coaches actually did it and and they've been rewarded. So, yeah, look, it's it's it's fascinating.
00:35:32
Holmesy
I mean, if you've got a TDK-cherry combo, you're very, very nervous at the moment. Up until ah the weekend, if you had the Gorn-TDK combo, you were also nervous. Yeah.
00:35:44
Holmesy
Gorn's had a good score on the weekend, but let's not sugarcoat it. We got lucky with Brian going down. That's us getting kissed.
00:35:51
Holmesy
um
00:35:51
Jon Harmey
Oh, hi, MC.
00:35:53
Jon Harmey
was my Stado Pick of Week.
00:35:56
Holmesy
Hey, you're the one that always goes on about how the Bombers are the premiership favourites and and the hardest to score against. so yeah, look, the the ruck line is is seriously fascinating and it is a ah case of who do you go to, but I just can't help but think if you're willing to take a risk and and go different, um it could pay off and and you could get a ah serious leg up against the rest of the competition, which is where I want to turn our attention next, lads. So I've got a few highly owned players here and I set the line above 15%.
00:36:26
Holmesy
And I want to play a bit of is it time to go? Because a few of these players are are now starting to burn holes in our sides. that They're putting up okay scores without it being fantastic. um And I can't help but feel that it could be time for some of these to go. I'm going to start with you, Harmi, just because I know Louis' opinion on this guy. But Matt Roberts...
00:36:44
Holmesy
Now priced at 84, his break-even's up to 92. Time on ground and hunger for the ball seems to have dropped since Riley Bice has come in and and mopped up a lot of ball back there. You've got Bice, you've got Nick Blakey and a few others returning.
00:37:00
Holmesy
Is it time for some good coaches that have good teams to think about jumping off of Matt Roberts?
00:37:06
Jon Harmey
I don't think he's far away. I'd be holding just at the minute. But you're right. I mean, Bice is playing the role that we thought Roberts would and Roberts isn't. In fact, I think that Roberts might started on the bench yeah the other night. So I'm holding for the time being, but i think we'll be jumping off soon.
00:37:25
Lew
Yeah, I agree. I think you've got to jump off maybe within the next month. Certainly don't agree on the roll call. His role is fantastic. he He's not manning up at all. He's clearly the guy that's that's calling the shots back there. But um yeah, I think in the next few weeks, he's probably one that we can put 150K on his head and get a guy that can go 110 more often than not, whereas Roberts is probably close to that 90. So if you're improving your side by 10%,
00:37:53
Lew
20 points each week. um That's got to be a winner. But also, I probably wouldn't rule out maybe even going a Matty Roberts down to Callum Mills in a fortnight's time. um If Mills looks okay, make a bit of cash there and get creative.
00:38:07
Lew
I like that option too.
00:38:11
Holmesy
does have the mighty Port Adelaide this week as well, Lou, which we know is a pretty tough matchup to score in, especially at the SCG. Sticking with you, Lou, you got off this guy last week. I got off him the week before and I'm pretty sure Harmy's going to get off him this week. But SDK now priced 72, even up to 87. to go, right?
00:38:32
Holmesy
got to go right
00:38:33
Lew
Yeah, he's got to go. the The role is unpredictable week to week, so time to turf him.
00:38:39
Holmesy
Agree with that one. Harmi, this one hurts. Well, I mean, he's actually been scoring all right the last two weeks. I'm not sure if you still have him as the Tassie boy, but Riley Sanders now priced at 71, break even of 60. So should be able to get that this week um with how he's been scoring over the last couple. The role is just not there.
00:38:59
Holmesy
um You know, he's getting 20 to 30% CBAs, but he's scoring off a half forward flank. Every week, I think it could be the week where he drops that 50, 60 and everything's done. But for good coaches that have good teams, Riley Sanders, time to go.
00:39:14
Jon Harmey
hmm yeah well yeah as you say he's a gun tassie player can't wait to see him back at the devils in their inaugural season the way that the bulldogs are treating him um i do have him in my midfield actually at the minute and what i think he had 61 and a half time and i was bloody keen to see him kick on which he didn't unfortunately ended up on 80 i think um but he's still making money he's scoring all right i'm just going to hold him for the time being with a ah small amount of optimism that he could actually um still you know get a bit more of a run through the midfield and and perform ah better than what he is. I mean, he got Harms going out.
00:39:53
Jon Harmey
We'll see what Treloar and Bont's return are looking like. But he's got potential to go you know more than what he is. And we saw that in the first half the other day. So I'm just holding for the time being.
00:40:05
Holmesy
Fair enough. Lou, this one, I know you were keen on him early and I know he was actually in your trade plan, so you might have dodged a bit of a bullet, but Finn Callaghan, priced at 81, is actually quite highly
Rookie Rankings and Trade Considerations
00:40:17
Holmesy
owned.
00:40:17
Holmesy
Now has a break-even of 99. I think he falls in the mold of just being a far better footy player than a fantasy scorer with the way that he plays the game, but is it time for coaches to take the money on Finn Callaghan's head and and take him up to a gun premium?
00:40:31
Lew
Yeah, I think it might be. And um he's he's probably playing such good footy that he's actually getting the number one tag now. So I think I'd get ahead of that and jump off Finn Callaghan. He's got enough cash on his head that you can can get a serious upgrade there. So Finn Callaghan owners should be excited by that.
00:40:50
Holmesy
Beautiful. And I was going to chuck Hugo Garcia in here, Harmi, to get your thoughts. But I think with the break-even of 29 in that midfield role, you just stick fat at the moment. I think you put him on field. He's got a great role at the moment. And and Jack Steele seems back in the pecking order. He might not be fit at the moment. But I think...
00:41:09
Holmesy
I think you can field him, Harmy, just for the record. But yeah, let's let's go into some rookie targets now for coaches that are looking to sort of go one down, one up. So there's a few rookies ah this week and I'd like you to sort of talk through and and rank these, Harmy. So we've got Matt Carroll from Carlton, our defender eligible, priced at 27 with a a negative four break even.
00:41:31
Holmesy
Tom Gross from the Eagles, midfield role priced at 32 with a negative 14 break even. ah Caden Cleary priced at 35 with a negative 20 break even. And then Saad Elholi priced at 26 with a negative four break even. Where are coaches looking to go this week?
00:41:49
Jon Harmey
Just give me one sec, mate. I'm just going to check... One thing, which is around Matt Carroll. Matt Carroll. Sorry. Probably a bit boring for the listeners. Righto. Here we go.
00:42:02
Jon Harmey
Yep. Okay. quite Quite easy for me, this one. ah Caden Cleary, number one. Rookie target this week out of those four. He's put up two great scores.
00:42:14
Jon Harmey
um You know, he should have he would have been starting the season if he yeah wasn't for his off-field indiscretion and suspension. So... I think that he... I mean, watch him play. the The guy is just a very good football player and at VFL level he's proven at last year and um in his game earlier. So, number one. Two, Tom Gross. I hope that he gets some continuity in that West Coast team and particularly in the midfield.
00:42:40
Jon Harmey
um I didn't see him playing junior footy, but apparently yeah very good and ah and a midfielder getting some time in there for West Coast. So that's good to see. The last two I'm a bit uncertain around.
00:42:55
Jon Harmey
My thing with Al Hawley was i think he is a pretty good player. He got 73 points. The week but but week before he got 17. but On the weekend he got 73. So people can look at that and go, oh, great, 73 points. you know he um He's up and about and in the Bombers team now. But he still came on as the sub. was only because...
00:43:17
Jon Harmey
Nick Bryan went down so early that he was subbed into the game. So, you know, is he best 22? I'd still throw a fair question mark on that. So I feel as though there's a level of risk around bringing him in.
00:43:30
Jon Harmey
And Matt Carroll, well, look, Daybird game,
00:43:35
Holmesy
Played the Eagles.
00:43:36
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I'd be a bit reluctant about bringing him in. I think he was the last, was he the last player put on their list as well, but potentially as well. So yeah, it doesn't scream out like somebody that's going to be in their best 22 long term.
00:43:50
Jon Harmey
So anyway, look, Cleary and Grosset, a clear one-two there for me.
00:43:54
Holmesy
Lou, do you agree with the Cleary-Gross rankings if coaches need to pick one of those this week?
00:44:00
Lew
Yep, that's that's the order I'd have them in.
00:44:03
Holmesy
is there any world where they're both options that coaches need to have and they could do a ah double downgrade if their team's good and they can't use the money to do any meaningful upgrades on field?
00:44:13
Lew
Yeah, yep. If you're in a situation where you need a double downgrade, I think Caden Cleary and Tom Grosh should have a bit of job security there. And their price has already started rolling quite nicely. So good options there. And you never know when the next one's going to come around. So um if you're in that position, I'd go for it.
00:44:30
Jon Harmey
We're really not doing that though, are we? I mean, there's enough players coming in at a level of discount now who have dropped for one reason or another that we should be targeting. I mean, our aim as coaches shouldn't be looking at a double downgrade at this point of the season.
00:44:46
Jon Harmey
We should be looking to try and go one down, one up and bring in somebody that we feel has dropped in price a bit and is a good buy.
00:44:50
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:44:54
Lew
You're not wrong, but a lot of coaches didn't do the double downgrade that many did during the best 18. So um i think I think it's still a play.
00:45:05
Holmesy
Yeah, well, I mean, let's okay let's throw another player in here at the moment. And I'm interested in this guy, Ned Long from Collingwood. ah priced at I think priced at 57. ah In the two games that he hasn't been subbed this year, he scored 90 and 108. And then in a game that he was subbed, he scored a 70-odd percent time on ground.
00:45:27
Holmesy
Would you much prefer, Harmi, if you know you did want to get two decent cash generators this week that you do target a Cleary and then maybe you're getting one of those red dots, you know ah let's say ah a Campo or a Hasty who's not a red dot but is not going anywhere or a Joe Berry who's subbed, would you prefer to get one of them up to a a Ned Long type so you still are improving on field um but you're still getting in some good cash generators or do you think Ned Long's not that guy?
00:45:58
Jon Harmey
I'm not sure. um Coming into the price tag of 500,000
00:46:04
Jon Harmey
quite a bit to ask, I suppose. It depends on what the rest of your team is looking like. i guess for me, i have too many of that type of player already. um Hugo Garcia, Davidson, Maric, all like these middle-priced players throwing up middling scores.
00:46:26
Jon Harmey
And at the moment, I'd probably rather go one way or the other. a cheaper player that's going to pop well as a rookie or an underpriced premium player. So, yeah, and once I saw his price, I certainly became less keen.
00:46:43
Holmesy
Fair enough. All right, before we get into the questions, what I thought we'd do is just go over some trade targets. Now, I've chucked these ones in, Harmy, so if you want to throw some of your own in, ah you can do. But, Lou, I want to start with two players that are priced around the same, that have that have both put up some good numbers over the last couple of weeks. So Sam Walsh and Tom Green.
00:47:02
Holmesy
Both two players that we thought had top eight potential to start the year have had injuries and been down at at certain points. So Walsh priced at 103 off the back of back-to-back 130s and Tom Green priced at 102 after going 108 and 120, I think, in his last two.
00:47:19
Holmesy
but ah Give us some insights into Walsh and Green and and where you might look to go if a coach is in the market for an upgrade premium in the midfield this week.
00:47:29
Lew
Well, you're dealing with two guns here. i don't think you can go wrong with either scenario. you're going to want to look at the fixture here and um and see who's got the nicer run. But I can't help but think that the buy is a major factor here. If you're bringing in Sam Walsh now, you're getting five or six games out of him up until his round 12 buy, whereas um Tommy Green is going to play right through until the round 16 buy, which...
00:47:54
Lew
I think is invaluable through that time period. So for me, um that's what probably gives Tom Green the edge. And I think um he's got a nice fixture to come up as well. And he's probably going to avoid the tag.
00:48:07
Lew
um More often than not, I think with Finn Callaghan putting on a bit of a show. So, That's where I land, but Sam Walsh is looking like he's coming into a bit of form now. So we know what his ceiling's like. He can punch out 140s probably more often than what a Sam Walsh can, than what AR Tom Green can.
00:48:27
Jon Harmey
Yeah, Holmesy, I see your list here. I think two weeks ago I said I liked Andy Brayshaw as a trading in target. I didn't get him, but I picked him up last week.
00:48:39
Jon Harmey
Last week I said I liked Nick Dacos as a trading target. I didn't get him, but I'm keen to pick him up this week. I think that Brayshaw and Dacos are two people that we all said at the start of the season would be top four mids.
00:48:54
Jon Harmey
I think that we would we can probably all agree that that's about the right mark, and both of them are $50,000 under what they started the season at. I feel as though they would both be better picks than Sam Walsh.
00:49:09
Holmesy
Yeah, so let's go to to Nick Dacos then. I i was going to do it in the hot topics, but I thought I'd just move it into into this segment. So is it time for Nick Dacos? Here's the run.
00:49:18
Jon Harmey
Yes, yes it is.
00:49:19
Holmesy
So Louis, he's got Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong, Frio, Adelaide, and North. So ah Brisbane tag him this week with a ah Joe Berry type?
00:49:29
Holmesy
Probably not. um Essendon, do they run a Durham-Cetterfield combo on him? More than likely. Geelong, sometimes they tag, sometimes they don't.
00:49:39
Holmesy
Freo, you don't think there's a tag. Adelaide, you don't think they're a tag, but um they're pretty tough as it is. and And North, who knows? Harmi wants to go there, Lou. is it Is it time for Nick Dacos? Is this one just not to overthink, knowing that most of the comp's going to go there and you just lock him away as a potential top four mid for the rest of the year?
00:49:58
Lew
Yeah, well, you wouldn't overthink it. I think he's bottomed out now and he's going to be a ah top eight mid for the rest of the year. ah you know You know what you're going to get with Dacos and um I think he's one of the safer picks this week. So yeah, he'd be probably number one or two in terms of trade priorities for me.
00:50:18
Lew
um But also keeping in mind that if you're not able to get to a Dacos, I wouldn't be too upset either. I think that what we see from him this season will be a bit up and down. um And I don't want to sit here and predict tags because it's impossible, but he's clearly their best player by some margin. And there's going to be teams that put more time into him than others.
00:50:38
Lew
um So I'm expecting a lot of 120s and 130s. I'm probably expecting a lot of 75s, 85s and you know low 90s in that as well, just when he gets that attention. So um that would be my only caveat for those that may be feeling like they're getting a bit of FOMO this week. But apart from that, Nick Dacos is an absolute smash play.
00:51:01
Jon Harmey
I should probably qualify my comments there. ah like Dacos or Brayshaw if you can get up to them. I'm not okay with it if you're just going sideways or down to them, that makes sense.
00:51:14
Jon Harmey
Should be an upgrade target.
00:51:17
Holmesy
Yep, fair enough. and And that's a good segue, Harmi, because not every coach has the money to get Dacos this week, um unless it is from ah from a premium. So I've got three names here that are some midfielders that I still think are a ah little bit underpriced.
Midfielder Analysis and Trade Opportunities
00:51:32
Holmesy
ah So Newcombe priced at 95 with that run that we've spoken about for Hawthorne. I think they've got Geelong, Richmond, Eagles, and and so maybe even a Melbourne in the next four. I can't remember what it is, but their run's insane and and his numbers without Will Day are ah pretty good.
00:51:48
Holmesy
Will Ashcroft priced at 90. We're seeing what some of the Bulldogs players are doing in some of these matchups and he's been a pretty safe 90 to 115 guy since round one when he put up that 60. And then Tim Taranto priced at 89. I think he was on about 60 odd at halftime and then scraped towards that ton. Do any of those names interest you, Harmy, if you can't get up to a Nick Dacos or or one of those other players mentioned?
00:52:14
Jon Harmey
um Not so much. ah Yeah, Taranto possibly priced at 89, but I mean, ah he could very well go 90 for the rest of the season. To be honest, all of those guys, I could actually see them just going what they're priced at there.
00:52:35
Jon Harmey
If there is anybody at Hawthorne that's going to get any level of attention, it's Newcombe or Sicily, and it's a different person that would tag those two. It wouldn't be the same type. so Will Ashcroft, I still believe he's the third or fourth midfielder at Brisbane. He's not ahead of Neil or Dunkley.
00:52:52
Jon Harmey
um And McCluggage is on fire. So I don't really feel as though he's a great pick. And Taranto, I just don't trust Richmond. They are putting up some putrid scores. So, yeah, that's probably a comment on each. But I wouldn't love bringing in either any of those three.
00:53:10
Jon Harmey
Could be wrong.
00:53:11
Holmesy
I could never do it because we've got to rock up to a podcast and and face our face our actions.
00:53:16
Lew
Thank
00:53:16
Holmesy
But it would not surprise me if Newcomb goes on a 1.15 run for the next four to five weeks um with the matchups that he's got, with Nash getting injured on the weekend um and there being doubt around Warple as well.
00:53:28
Holmesy
Yes, he he might get the attention, but i I think he could be a bit of a smash play. But yeah, not
00:53:33
Jon Harmey
Can just... Sorry, Holmesy. Right, let's say that Nash is out and Warple is out. Let's say that they both don't play this week. Newcombe's in the midfield. Who's with him?
00:53:44
Holmesy
McKenzie, who's the, Josh Ward.
00:53:48
Lew
more
00:53:48
Holmesy
um Oh, Dylan Moore had 50% CBAs on the weekend as well. So that could be one to monitor. um We know what he can do with CBAs and and his scoring ability. He might be a little bit off that sort of top six at the moment, but that's,
00:54:02
Holmesy
That's definitely one to flag. Look, I'm just saying he might potentially potentially be underpriced. He had 118 against a tough Port Adelaide midfield on the weekend. um So yeah, just one to flag, but not sure I could do it. Lou, I want to get your thoughts on one more player before we get into these questions. Max Holmes. Now I'm a little bit biased.
00:54:20
Holmesy
Priced at 96 with, you know, Nassai being priced at 101, Sinclair 105, Zorko 107, Sheezle up there, Whitfield up there. Is Max Holmes a good underpriced defender to trade into knowing that he could hopefully be top six and you're not paying upwards of a mil? Or do you think our coaches should be a little bit scared off by the tag attention that he's getting?
00:54:43
Lew
Oh, no, I'd be considering him highly. He's another one with that round 16 buyer, which is nice. So he gets plenty of games under his belt until then. ah You nailed it with the tag he's going to come um on any given week. He's he's an absolute star, but I think a bit like Nick Dacos, outside of that, he appears to to get it done. So um I'm a big fan of Max Holmes.
00:55:06
Lew
But also, i wouldn't mind seeing his top 1,000 ownership or top 100 ownership too because I've got a feeling they might be up and about there. So if you were looking for a bit more of a point of difference, it could be um somewhere to look elsewhere.
00:55:22
Holmesy
Yep, I might actually get that before the end of the show. But let's get stuck into the questions now. But just a reminder, PodPod has partnered with Q Platforms in 2025 to help answer all of your AFL fantasy questions.
Partnership Announcement and Trade Priorities
00:55:34
Holmesy
So if you'd like to help out PodPod and support us for all the effort that we put in ah for a small fee, you have the ability to ask ah a question and get a fully personalized audio response to all of your questions, including team reviews, strategy questions, trade questions.
00:55:50
Holmesy
everything there so if you want to head over to askmeonq.com forward slash pod pod afl ah that is q you the link is in the show description below um and leave us a question for for the support and and we would be getting on to that first question lu i'll throw to you because i can't get an unbiased opinion from harmy this one's from lauren hey fellas are we trading garcia or lindsey first the person has to stay on field
00:56:17
Lew
Oh, probably, yeah.
00:56:17
Jon Harmey
Lindsay.
00:56:19
Lew
Probably Lindsay, I think.
00:56:22
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I think that's a pretty simple one as well. I think Garcia with that midfield role is a bit safer than Lindsay coming back from that injury. But fingers crossed for my side, Lindsay turns it around.
00:56:34
Holmesy
That would be quite handy. Harmi, this one's from Steve Smith. He's upgrading Frazier. Does he go Holmes or does he go Lockie Ash for a bit of a point of difference, which we do love on the Pop Pods?
00:56:45
Jon Harmey
Holmes, he has a better role and a better three-round average. I'd probably be going for him.
00:56:52
Holmesy
Yeah, Lockie Ash has been great and is one of the reasons that Sam's flew up the rankings, but you can't help but think that Whitfield still is the main guy back there and Lockie Ash is still going to have some of these floor games but can't knock what he's been doing to start the year.
00:57:07
Holmesy
Louis, this one is from Matt Mascar. He has Frazier and Callaghan issues. Does he go prior to Cleary and then Callaghan to Dacos or prior to Cleary and then Frazier to Stewart? So is Callaghan the bigger priority which gets him to Dacos or is Frazier the bigger priority which means he has to settle for a Tom Stewart?
00:57:28
Lew
I think I prefer the first one, getting the um the big dog of Dacos in there. I'm not sure how to read Stuart. He's obviously um value priced at about you know roughly 80, but plays that Monday game. so not going to get much eye on whether he's going to be playing until that, well, knowing Geelong, probably Monday. So um yeah, for that reason, i think I think I prefer the Dacos upgrade there.
00:57:55
Holmesy
yep
00:57:55
Lew
Stuart feels achievable the the week following, whereas Dacos, don't know, that might be a tricky one to find.
00:57:56
Holmesy
Yep, surely he's playing off the back of Gastro, but it is Geelong and and Tom Stewart.
00:58:06
Holmesy
The last thing you want to do is lock that trade in and then have to pivot on the the Sunday night when he's not named.
00:58:07
Lew
Well, I...
00:58:12
Holmesy
So yeah, I think I'm Callaghan up to Dacos as well and you just pray for ah a Frazier bounce back. But yeah, he's he's a priority. He has to go.
00:58:20
Lew
I don't even think it was Gastro because it was told to me today that he actually did an interview with Tex Walker at a children's hospital about three hours before he was the late out.
00:58:32
Lew
So either Geelong ah um playing silly buggers or, you know, Tommy Stewart's just walked into a children's hospital um sick as. So we'll see.
00:58:44
Holmesy
Far out. Geelong are absolutely next level. Aren't they, Hymie? This one's from Simon Stacks. Reid and Treanor have outscored Farrell the Fraud three weeks in a row.
00:58:56
Holmesy
can Can we play them at D6 instead and use DPP to launch him into the sun for a midfielder?
00:59:04
Jon Harmey
Why do I keep playing Farrell and Sam DeConing on field when I've got the two guns of Trena and Reid on my bench? I really am seeing them pretty badly at the minute. but So I agree.
00:59:20
Jon Harmey
Farrell should go if you can get rid of him.
00:59:24
Holmesy
launch him to the shadow realm and never look at him again. I think play play those other ones at D6 for this week, read against the Eagles, and then deal with that in the following week.
00:59:35
Holmesy
ah This one's from Korn Louie. So... Merritt slash Dacos and now Hawley providing he's not the sub or Dylan Moore and Ned Long so this is more the do you get the really gun premium and then the rookie or do you settle for an underpriced premium and a mid-pricer what do you think
00:59:55
Lew
I think I prefer the first option. ah ah Dylan Moore, think, is going to be a good pick, but um you know he he sort of kicked on in that second half when Hawthorne were coming back.
01:00:06
Lew
I just want to see it one more week to make sure that role is going to stick. But even outside of that, we know Dylan Moore is a capable sort of 90-plus guy. in that high half forward role. ned long Ned Long is really interesting to me. I'm not sure I'm as keen as maybe what some others are. um You know, there's no Jordan Degoe in that side. He should be fit this week. um Houston was out suspended. Perryman didn't attend a single CBA.
01:00:36
Lew
um couple of weeks ago, Ned Long had nine tackles and next game he was subbed. So he's put in that effort and he's just been, you know, handed that vest. And I just don't trust Craig McRae.
01:00:48
Lew
Personally, I think he's a he's ah is an interesting guy. um you know Dropping um John Noble for the grand final after 23 games, I don't think he's hard to... I don't think he's afraid to make a tough decision. And um with these players returning fit, it's actually quite an easy conversation to have.
01:01:07
Holmesy
Man, I like Ned Long. I'm not going to lie. That game on on Friday night against Sydney just smacked of a player just really cementing himself in that side. And, and you know, kind of like Bice did the week before.
01:01:16
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
01:01:19
Holmesy
It's tough. Degowie's going to be fit. You're right. Houston's coming back. there's There's Lockie Schultz coming back into that side as well. So has every chance to to be the sub again. So it makes it risky.
01:01:30
Holmesy
But, yeah, just it's the type of pick that could win you.
01:01:33
Lew
what does What does he need to go? What is he actually priced at at $553,000? $57,000. We can't even get $85,000 Perryman.
01:01:37
Holmesy
He's priced at 57.
01:01:38
Holmesy
In that role, if if he can go 85, which he's he's doing those numbers as a full-time midfielder, and if he can go higher than that, then that's a hat-winning pick. So it's it's high risk, high reward.
01:01:38
Lew
fifty seven
01:01:48
Lew
we can't even get eighty five out of perimine Pendle's crisp, side bottom, they they can't push 85.
01:01:52
Jon Harmey
Here.
01:01:54
Lew
I know he's got the um these tackles that's just pushing him up. I don't want to talk anybody out of it because it does feel like a pick that, if you're correct, is absolute smash play.
01:02:05
Lew
It's too much mud in the water for me.
01:02:08
Jon Harmey
Yeah, and I guess we have just seen this before with developing p players that are early on in their career. That was his best game he's ever played in the AFL level. I mean, ah ah Mitch Nevitt, Lajosadis, like developing players that have got the potential.
01:02:24
Jon Harmey
You see, this doesn't last. And i think if you're relying on um him doing this for the next five weeks, Holmes, I can't see it happening.
01:02:32
Holmesy
Fair enough. I'll enjoy them all by myself, lads.
01:02:35
Jon Harmey
Good luck, Kofi.
01:02:35
Holmesy
ah
01:02:37
Lew
And I hope you're noisy about it, mate.
01:02:37
Holmesy
Nah. Yeah, nah, not sold on it, but I think he deserves more discussion, um especially because some of these midfield rookies are now starting to... Drop down a bit. ah This one's from Bontsville Wizard. Harmy, I want an old school ah Stato stamp of approval here, lads.
01:02:56
Holmesy
He wants to go. He wants to play two rookies on field in defense um and move SDK out to El Hawley, which gets Murphy Reid to Dacos. So do you tick that off?
01:03:07
Jon Harmey
If El Hawley is not on field, I'm okay with that. Like if your two rookies are, um you know, Bison Reid or, you know, Bison Trainer, I'm okay with that.
01:03:18
Jon Harmey
I wouldn't just wouldn't be relying on El Hawley's score in your best 22, that's all.
01:03:23
Lew
ah Even against the the Eagles, is that one that you can sort of run the gauntlet?
01:03:26
Jon Harmey
No, no, could be subbed in, could be subbed out. It's just not he's not cemented yet.
01:03:32
Lew
Yep.
01:03:34
Holmesy
Fair enough. Louie, this one's from Fantasy Observer AFL. Is it grab Rosie at all costs now with his defensive move or can we afford to wait a week um and fix up other concerns with his Sydney matchup?
Role Changes and Team Impact
01:03:47
Lew
Oh, damned if you do, damned if you don't on that one. ah I'm not sure if it'll stick um that role. ah I tend to think it will. I think they'll try it for a couple of weeks. But um if he's going to pick up defensive status, I'll probably lean towards, yeah, I'd be targeting him um because that's going to be a really nice one to slip back into defense in in five weeks' time.
01:04:09
Holmesy
Do we think if this does stick and he becomes a defender, is this green light for Jason Horne-Francis to be a better scorer, Lou, knowing that the points that Rosie was scoring in the midfield ah are now available for more for him and Butters?
01:04:23
Lew
It's not going to hurt him. um it's It's probably going to improve Horn Francis and Butters. I think it's going to come ah more from your Drew Wines and Mead types that are running through there, though. I think um they were really effective on the weekend and Rosie to halfback flank sort of seemed to work.
01:04:41
Lew
um So I reckon they'll persist with that for a little while yet.
01:04:45
Jon Harmey
Louis, surely this was just a tactic to try and break that the fact that he's been tagged last two weeks. Surely that's what it's about, isn't it?
01:04:52
Lew
um I'm not sure, Harmi. After the game, um Butters in his post-game interview, he credited Josh Carr as um making that switch for for Connor Rosey.
01:05:03
Lew
um Josh Carr was actually the coach of Connor Rosey at North Adelaide in his draft year and played him off the halfback flank. So if we are seeing a bit of a handover ah from Hinkley to Josh Carr and maybe some game style changes, then Rosey to halfback flank wouldn't surprise me at all.
01:05:21
Lew
And there was, to be fair, some murmurs of that actually occurring in the preseason.
01:05:27
Holmesy
Far out. Imagine how good Port Adelaide could have been over the last few years if they had Josh Carr at the helm, Lou. How many premierships would you have won?
01:05:34
Lew
Ha ha ha.
01:05:37
Holmesy
Do you think, just quickly before we move on, do you think the halfback role is going to be better or worse for Rosie in the long term for his scoring? Clearly, if he gets defensive status, the bar isn't as high, but do you think he'll score as well?
01:05:48
Jon Harmey
Worse, your ceiling won't be as good.
01:05:50
Lew
Yeah, I um ah think he might score better, to be honest. I think he's he's got more free space.
01:05:55
Holmesy
Ooh.
01:05:57
Lew
He's a brilliant mark and he pushes up the ground and I think he's still going pepper the goals. So, um yeah, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if he's, you know, looking like a little bit like Harry Sheasel.
01:06:09
Lew
ah Excuse the bias, but um that's the role you want him in and he looked fantastic on the weekend.
01:06:16
Holmesy
Harmi, last question from Fisher. Is it safe to jump off Tom Powell? Been a bit underwhelming after a hot start and with Wardlaw not far from returning. He does want to interrupt his upgrade cadence, but is Tom Powell someone that you'd be jumping off?
01:06:30
Jon Harmey
Yes, yes, I think you can jump off Tom Powell. I think that he's done his job for you. He's made some money. He put some very good scores for you and it's not not very difficult to get him up to a bona fide premium player. So um well done on the pick and I think it's not a bad time to get off him.
01:06:49
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that. All right, lads, another bumper of an episode. Thanks for jumping on. Harmi, I'll leave with you as I gave it to Louis
Closing Thoughts and Advice
01:07:00
Holmesy
last time.
01:07:00
Holmesy
Just give the listeners one closing thought as we prepare for for round six and we're well and truly back into best 22 and moving into upgrade season.
01:07:10
Jon Harmey
just Just probably the length of time between the first game and the last game this weekend. um Just make sure you've got some level of bench coverage, I think, as you go through, just on the off chance that you've used your trades. And, um yeah, and there's some Geelong laid-outs.
01:07:27
Holmesy
Beautiful. and And fingers crossed, Lou, hopefully when we're recording this time next Monday or Tuesday that you and Sam will be well and truly intent entrenched moving towards that top 100. I said it before, it's it's pretty awesome that we've got two pod pod coaches in the the top 1,000.
01:07:44
Holmesy
and we're representing. So go well, go well, Lou. Listeners, make sure you are make sure you trade well, keep pushing hard. And as we saw, that there's still some serious ranking shifting going on.
01:07:55
Holmesy
um We only saw last week myself and Lou still able to charge up the ranks despite having um some pretty ah um average captains and rookie scores. So go well. Make sure you're following us on Twitter at PodPort AFL. Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your content.
01:08:12
Holmesy
Have a good Easter. Enjoy the footy. And we'll be back here next week.
01:08:16
Lew
Bye.