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Holmesy’s Horror | Creative Cash Generation | AFL Fantasy Q&A #PODPOD
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A week is a long time in AFL Fantasy… This time last week, guns and rookies was the strategy and the coaches without this were changing their structure to facilitate this. Fast forward a week and things have drastically changed. We talked through it this week!
On this episode, Holmesy, Harmey and Lewy review the round that was. They tackle a stack of hot topics as they round table all of the key strategy talking points, They also discuss a bunch of relevant trade in players whilst answering a stack of listener questions!
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Transcript
Introduction and Podcast Focus
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Tuesday, 22nd of April, 22nd, sorry. The Easter weekend round of footy has been and gone.
Reflecting on a Tough Fantasy Weekend
00:00:32
Holmesy
It was a brutal weekend of fantasy footy and we are here to cover it all.
Introducing John Harmey: Fantasy Footy Expert
00:00:37
Holmesy
As always, I'm joined by a two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019, John Harmey.
00:00:43
Holmesy
john harmy Mate, off the back of a massive week that we'll get into, you must be flying. How was your week?
00:00:49
Jon Harmey
Yeah, no, not too bad. Thanks, Holmesy. And are yeah a bit of a better week, but I guess similar to a lot of people. Left a few points on the bench potentially. and But anyway, no, I had a pretty decent score. so And, yeah, caught some of the footy too. The Bombers had another big win, so that was pleasing as well.
00:01:11
Holmesy
Yep, fair enough. And joined as always, ah perennial top 1K finisher and coach that's edging his way towards the top 100 this year. A little bit under the weather, but Lou, you have joined us, mate. How are you?
00:01:25
Lew
Yeah, mate, I've just left my coma. I'm pushing shit uphill at the moment in terms of of my health, but I've made it here for the podcast and I'm keen to to speak about fantasy footy for the next hour with you boys.
00:01:38
Jon Harmey
Can't even blame it on Gather Round this week, Lou.
00:01:40
Lew
No, it's it's probably um some of the effects I'm fighting off from Gather Round, I think. the ah The body took a bit of a hit, so ah yeah there's always consequences, isn't there?
00:01:51
Holmesy
Are you still on the Ken Outport train,
Ken Hinkley's Team Performance Analysis
00:01:54
Holmesy
mate? They've backed it up. They're playing some good footy.
00:01:57
Lew
Yeah, no, um'm I'm still driving that train. So, yep, Hinkley out.
00:02:03
Holmesy
Beautiful. Well, why don't we get into the the weekend that was, and unfortunately, I have to start us off, boys, with the round that I had.
Holmesy's Fantasy Footy Results
00:02:11
Holmesy
Some out of my control and some just bad decisions, but I had a 1,948 this week, which only had me slide about 300 spots out to 5,726, so...
00:02:25
Holmesy
Not the worst considering some decisions that were made. But yeah, um my Stato Pick of the Week and it all started so well. ah Nick Dacos, 1.31 with the VC on Thursday night.
00:02:38
Holmesy
Also brought in Ned Long for some good cash gen, which looked like a masterstroke on Friday when all of the subs... All of the rookies that were looking were named sub. ah But then, unfortunately, come Saturday night, I was hit with the Luke trainer two on field.
00:02:56
Holmesy
There was nothing that could be done. I'd had both of my emergency play already. I was 7K short of being able to reverse my Farrell trade to trade trainer instead.
00:03:08
Holmesy
And there was nothing I could do without completely butchering my side. So, unfortunately, copped the trainer two.
00:03:14
Holmesy
Played Cleary over Davidson. yeah I would have had an extra 102 points, Lou, which would have looked a little bit better. I'll cop Cleary over Davidson. That was bad coaching. i Just decided to take a punt. But yeah, ah all things compounded.
00:03:14
Lew
You wouldn't want to reverse Farrill though.
00:03:30
Holmesy
ah Definitely didn't pay off for me this week. Lou, why don't you ah let us know about your week?
Lou's Reflection on Fantasy Footy
00:03:36
Lew
Yeah, my ah my weekend was interesting and um in a bit of contrast to yours, Holmes, it shows sort of sometimes you can get a bit of luck and then sometimes it's quite the opposite. So I scored the 2004, which brought me into 242 for rank. So that that was a nice little climb.
00:03:55
Lew
um Probably wasn't expecting that off the back of another poor game. captaincy choice in Jack Sinclair. But I also copped the trainer um bullet on Saturday night. He was the sub.
00:04:06
Lew
I had Jackson Pryor play, Reid play. There was nothing I could do until I realized I was trading out the great Sam Wicks. And I thought, oh well I'll undo this trade.
00:04:18
Lew
I'll put Wicks on field. He's somehow given me a 75. he's trade He's changed my trade plans from Wicks and some change for next week to Ted Closey, who at that point was a red dot and I was going to loop with on field.
00:04:35
Lew
ah Anyway, I didn't do that because of trainer sub, which meant that Ted Closey was a late in. So I've i've essentially avoided two sub scores off the back of yeah Sammy Wicks. So yeah, he's my goat player, my Stato pick of the week this week.
00:04:53
Holmesy
You might have to fly over and and buy him a couple of beers. I think, Lou, after he got you Davos 125 earlier in the year as well.
00:05:00
Lew
Oh, it's incredible. Sam Wicks has been one of my best picks of the year and it's it's only about 50% to do with Sam Wicks.
00:05:10
Holmesy
Very, very good, mate, and good to see you climbing up higher and and edging towards that top 100. But the score that we all wanted to hear, John Harmy, are we are we back?
John Harmey's Performance and Improvement
00:05:20
Holmesy
ah we Are we saying that we're back?
00:05:22
Jon Harmey
i wouldn't go that far, Holmesy. I've come in 10,000 ranking positions, so that was pretty surprising, I suppose. So, yeah, put up a 2,043, so around points higher than you, Holmesy. But, look, it wasn't without some level of controversy also. Actually, I thought I was going to go a bit better.
00:05:45
Jon Harmey
i was coming into the Monday game, Katz and Hawthorne, and I had, well, Bailey Smith, but I had Tom Stewart and Sam DeConin. And I thought, oh, yeah. Anyway, Tom Stewart, 60, Sam DeConing, 41. They kind of let me down a bit there. and well sam Actually, Sam DeConing can have my dossie pick of the week. he um That shitted me off. And he's just one of those guys that's somehow survived every week for me. You know, all these trade-out options, yet he still is sitting in my defensive line.
00:06:19
Jon Harmey
And my Stato pick of the week, well, it'd have to be my boy Riley Sanders, 130 points. um Last week at halftime, he had 61, then put up about 19 points for the second half. but
00:06:33
Lew
Thank you.
00:06:33
Jon Harmey
this This week he sort of went on with it, um heaps of and uncontested marks. The Saints letting him do as he wants, but it just sort of shows that, you know, the good players, the good high-calibre players will shine through, and I think that he is one. So I'm pretty happy with him in my side at the minute.
00:06:55
Holmesy
Yep, definitely happy that I traded him out this week and and missed that 130. So, ah yeah, we had we had ah we had a nightmare week, but that's all right.
00:07:01
Jon Harmey
Sorry, mate, I didn't make
00:07:05
Holmesy
I backed the process in, just is what it
Challenges of AFL Fantasy's Rolling Lockout
00:07:09
Holmesy
is. But before we get into it, i just yeah we have to kind of talk about this whole rolling lockout debate, um the subs and whatnot.
00:07:17
Holmesy
I'll throw to you, Lou, because... all the All the talk on Twitter is that the rolling lockout has to go, this and that. you know It's so hard to navigate when you've got families and lives outside of being on your phone.
00:07:29
Holmesy
But how would you how would you fix it with the the current state of the AFL with the subs? Because I think when there is subs, there has to be a rolling lockout. But I think AFL Fantasy also needs to adapt a little bit here and and move with the times and and maybe just implement a time on ground threshold. Because those that got stung with trainer this week,
00:07:48
Holmesy
like we we weren't being punished because we have thin benches and we we were taking a risk there. we We purely got punished on an unlucky fixture. I had a 68 and a 62 sitting there on the bench that I couldn't access, not not because of skill or the way I play the game, purely because of how the fixtures lined up. So do you think AFL Fantasy needs to to move with the times like Supercoach and implement another sort of way to play the game? Or do you think they're just going to continue rolling out what they've been doing?
00:08:15
Lew
ah I'll tell you what, I'm not envious of the people that need to make this decision. I don't love a TOG thing because I think that takes out injuries from the equation, but um ah I've seen the suggestion that maybe a utility comes in as yeah as sort of your best scorer on the bench, but... um Mate, I don't have any conviction either which way.
00:08:37
Lew
I just know that I'm stupid enough to come back and play this game year on year. So I'm just going to roll with the punches.
00:08:42
Jon Harmey
Bye.
00:08:43
Lew
And um i don't think there's ever going to be a perfect system. I don't think anybody's going to be entirely happy. So um there's pros and cons for both sides. I like a rolling lockout.
00:08:54
Lew
I think it actually benefits the casual coach more than um the opposite. So yeah, that's my two cents.
00:09:02
Holmesy
Harmi, do you have any different thoughts or you kind of echo those?
00:09:06
Jon Harmey
I'm fixed lockout all the way. I have never really liked a rolling lockout much, to be honest. And if that's fixed first game Saturday or whatever, I think that's a better way to go. At least everybody's in the same boat then. And um yeah, the people that you had don't have the opportunity to pivot five minutes before the game sometimes aren't disadvantaged.
00:09:31
Holmesy
Yeah, and I suppose we we kind of need to just think about the way we play the game as well. like It doesn't matter how good these first-year rookies are. Chances are at some point in the first sort of three to to six games, they're either going to cop a red vest or a green vest, ah and it's it's going to come from nowhere because you know that's the way the AFL coaches are ah choosing to use this sub a lot of the time. Trainer wasn't dropped. He was just managed off a high workload.
00:09:56
Holmesy
um We've seen it with some of the Essendon rookies. We saw it last year with Sanders and McKercher. It's just part of the game. And yeah, Lou, what do
Coaches' Team Selection Strategies
00:10:05
Holmesy
you want to add to that?
00:10:05
Lew
I was just going to um ask the question, is it on the coaches too? Because we can select teams that aren't going to have subs. um We don't have to go guns and rookies. We don't have to pick you know these guys that we're unsure about. We can go more mid-price or heavy.
00:10:22
Lew
um So I'd just raise that caveat too because, yeah, like I said, definitely. There's always going to be people upset, whether it's fixed, rolling, um whatever. So just roll with the punches and you're going to cop it sometimes and and other times it's going to benefit you.
00:10:38
Lew
Like I ah saw a few people say that they were able to edit their Tom Gross and Sardell Hawley trades.
00:10:44
Jon Harmey
so
00:10:44
Lew
That was on the Friday night and that was okay.
00:10:45
Jon Harmey
Okay.
00:10:47
Lew
So, yep. um ye
00:10:49
Holmesy
Yeah, look, but I mean, that's where it just comes down to luck of fixture, right? Like if those games are on the Sunday, then and you're you're in a lot of strife. And I suppose it's it's different this year and last year where they the AFL changed the way that they named the subs. The subs used to come from the emergencies, right?
00:11:06
Holmesy
Yeah. So it slightly different.
00:11:08
Lew
Yeah, yeah.
00:11:08
Holmesy
Like, Traynor was named... Traynor was named on field.
00:11:11
Jon Harmey
Mm, yep.
00:11:11
Holmesy
Like, it's very, very... It doesn't happen very often unless you're Geelong where the sub is coming from the field. Like, you's yeah it was just one of those things. We do have to cop it, but it...
00:11:22
Holmesy
I tell you, you copied it. It doesn't make you feel very good, that's for sure.
00:11:26
Holmesy
But anyway, that's let's get stuck into our hot topics for for the week. And we are going to start with these rookies because we've gone from last week, everyone saying it's upgrade season, it's time to hunt these premiums and and get them on field to all of a sudden,
00:11:26
Lew
Yeah.
00:11:41
Holmesy
all of our rookies suddenly oh all topping out and all needing to go with options not really
Rookie Cash Generation Issues in AFL Fantasy
00:11:47
Holmesy
presenting. So you think trainer, cash gen's done now. Zach Reid, yes, he's best 22, but his cash gen's coming to an end with that 36.
00:11:55
Holmesy
You've got the Sydney boys in Cleary and Warner who put up stinkers and that's halting their cash gen, at least in the short term, unless they can kickstart it again. Max Hall, like what do we do here, Lou? we get We have to come up with some creative ways to make cash now because we were banking on some of these guys making an extra 50 to 100K and getting us closer to the top. But in ah in one round of footy, it's all just gone.
00:12:21
Lew
Yeah, that's it. it's um It's definitely going to be an interesting week. I sort of saw this a couple of days ago. and I'm looking at the team sheets and wondering who the hell is going to be an option next week because even the ones we've got are a little bit shaky. So think coaches are going to be forced to get creative here, which you know we always like to say and um There's probably a few options that we've been even discussing in previous weeks. Like Ned Long now becomes seriously relevant. He was last week, but I think for a wider range of coaches, that's now in play.
00:12:54
Lew
um think there's some movement in the rucks there. we obviously um have a Tom DeConing who some coaches think may be an issue over the next couple of weeks. you know We can go down there.
00:13:05
Lew
um And, you know, moving your mid prices around, that there's various ways to make cash. um Yeah, it's it's going to be a tricky one, but I think there is enough sort of mud in the water that if you can navigate this week correctly, it's probably going to go a long way to your ranking um season-wise. seasonwise
00:13:28
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I think we need to explore all you know all avenues, all opportunities that may be there as well. like and Last night, i was trying to have a look at a few um rookies that potentially come in as your downgrade, and I found myself self looking at some names.
00:13:47
Jon Harmey
Durden, Tunstall. um Had another look at um Harvey Langford at 450. Luke Cleary. You know, like, these are these aren't players that I've got a whole lot of faith in or that I think are going to do the job for us.
00:14:04
Jon Harmey
So, yeah, I agree with Lou. I mean, we've got to have a look at some different price points and different positions ah to try and make cash.
00:14:11
Lew
Now, obviously, we're going to get team sheets, and I'm sure there will be someone that comes out the woodwork, and and they'll be discussed, I'm sure, plenty. But ah can we can we look at a red dot this week? I know that...
00:14:27
Lew
Some coaches might be worried about their bench, um but I think equally there's enough coaches that are a bit worried about some positions on field, you know be it a D6, M8, maybe even an F6 for some coaches.
00:14:41
Lew
If we're shrewd enough to pick a player that can sort debut in a number of weeks, and look, I know this is getting a little bit cute, and I think people that did it for Bo Allen after round one are probably telling me no, no, no, but Is it on the table at all? like there There are some blokes. a Hugh Boxerl had 35 in the VFL on the weekend. The Saints midfield in the AFL were pretty average.
00:15:05
Lew
um We've got ah Jed Busslinger after Sam Darcy goes down. Does Lobb move forward? Busslinger comes in. Look, even a Sandy Brock, I ah know he's a key defender. He's got a seven break even. He's West Coast. He plays the last game of the round most weeks.
00:15:22
Lew
At some point, he'll come in, he'll make you some cash. But until then, he he might be a seriously handy loop to sort of navigate that that read prior trainer back line that a lot of coaches are running with.
00:15:34
Jon Harmey
Boys, just a question for both of you then. um How many non-playing players have you already got in your squad? So I have got two. I've got Boyd in my ruck line and I've got Henderson who got dropped last week.
00:15:50
Jon Harmey
What about you guys?
00:15:52
Lew
I've just got bored.
00:15:54
Jon Harmey
Right.
00:15:54
Holmesy
Yeah, I've got Boyd and Campo, who admittedly has not been very good for for looping up until he's got ah i think he's got a Sunday game or a late Saturday game this round.
00:15:54
Jon Harmey
Holmesy?
00:16:03
Holmesy
So... Look, Harmi, I'll throw back to you because you put the thumb down straight away when Louis um sort of started broaching this subject. But it's something I'm looking at this week, um knowing that I still have the three rookies in defense and a week is a long time in footy. They could bounce back. But I'm actually liking the idea of potentially going down to a 230K red dot, like Louis said.
00:16:27
Holmesy
um so that can have some looping power at that D6 position um to free up some cash. Now, admittedly, mike my team value was in a good spot and and it's still in an okay spot.
00:16:38
Holmesy
So I'm ah um thinking of doing that if there's no rookies that are available that have good job security and look like they're scoring. But why were you so quick, Harmi, to put the thumb down when Louis started talking about it?
00:16:48
Jon Harmey
ah When you say a red dot, Louis is talking it about being somebody who may come in. Are you talking about throw away red dot as in as a permanent um loop?
00:16:58
Lew
No, I think you have to be clever around your dot. um
00:17:02
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:17:02
Lew
But, you know, I'm looking at a Finno Sullivan who's 398K. He's got a break even of 48. Has he gone over that yet? I think, yeah, twice, just three times. But, you know, 51, 52, 54, he's putting up stinkers in between.
00:17:18
Lew
um You know, that dot may as well be red. He's got port this week. it's It's just a creative way of finding some cash and maybe it gets you some points on field um over the next couple of weeks as well.
00:17:32
Jon Harmey
Yeah, anyway, Holmes, to answer your question, I just don't like the idea. Lack of cash generation, buyers coming up, you know, I just think that you're limiting your options if that's the way you go.
00:17:47
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. And look, I get it. it was never It's not going to be a ah player I don't think will play. up I'm going to have to look into it to see if there's someone that's on the horizon. But let's let's say this week that the only options are at a Tunstall, a Matt Carroll, who's at a little bit over 300k or someone else. What's not to say that...
00:18:05
Holmesy
you trade into one of these players and then they're dropped the next week and you you make, maybe you make 30, 40 K this week, but then they are the red dot anyway. And, and you've burnt a trade there. So it's, there's just things to think about clearly. If there's a good rookie option, you go there because we are trying to generate cash, but I'm, I'm just getting pummeled at the moment without having an option to loop at some of these positions. And it's,
00:18:29
Holmesy
it's It's made a ah big dent in my my point scoring ability. Yes, the cash gen's been good, but it's just something I wanted to to throw by you guys, which has been good to talk about, Luke.
00:18:38
Lew
just um I don't know if we're going to talk about rookies later, but has anybody had a look at Charlie Spargo too? um Just caught my eye a bit. He's 332k with a 15 break even.
00:18:52
Lew
Richmond and West Coast in his next two. He could be one that, um if you want to take a little bit of a punt, could be an interesting player just to um put your chips in on.
00:19:02
Holmesy
i was ah I was watching the Melbourne game, obviously being a Freo supporter with one of my Melbourne mates on the weekend. And every time Spargo got the ball, he he was saying, why is he even playing?
00:19:13
Holmesy
So I'm not i'm not sure is ah he's a fan favorite of ah them. But look, I mean, he's playing a role at the moment. I was kind of focusing on what Freo were doing, Lew and Harmy, but did anyone see his role on the weekend?
00:19:26
Holmesy
it seems like he's sort of that forward guy.
00:19:27
Jon Harmey
Yeah, small forward pocket.
00:19:28
Lew
ah Yeah, look, he's he's probably not one that's going to escape the vest either, but it's ah it's a pretty barren landscape at the moment, so I thought I'd just throw that in as as one that might be a green dot this week.
00:19:41
Jon Harmey
Yeah, it's not the worst suggestion because he missed a lot of last season through injury. So ah ah think that Melbourne see him as being a a best 22 player. So he may sort of have ah some longevity and he's just scored that 71. So even though it includes like...
00:19:57
Jon Harmey
you know, toe poke in the goal square. But um that's in his rolling average now. So he's in there for a bit. He'll make a bit of money.
00:20:05
Holmesy
Now, Lou, i'll I'll throw back to you because you were the one championing not to do this last week. And in fact, you traded in Nick Martin just to avoid having the three rookies in defense. But... After one week, are you willing to call this a fail now because of what's happened? Or or do you think that you know the stars aligned with the trainer sub, with the weird Eagles game? And we always say a week is a long time in footy. Do you think yeah those rookie defenders can bounce back this week and and steady the ship? Or do you think coaches like myself need to be moving heaven and earth to make sure we take one of those rookies off our field in in the defensive line?
00:20:41
Lew
oh I mean, how could you tell? It's rookie roulette, and that's probably why with we're even talking and considering, you know, is there a red dot option here? Because we just don't know with these rookies. There's a lot of volatility in their scoring. And, um yeah, three rookies on field, um especially in defense. I thought last week it's got danger written all over it. And, yeah, it's probably...
00:21:05
Lew
looks to be that way. um I'm not as confident on those three um in D6, let alone, you know, spread out across my defence. So, yeah, unfortunately, Holmesy, I think I'll have to call it a fail.
00:21:20
Holmesy
I suppose, though, Louis, is this the week to be trading up into a premium in defence, though? I mean, who are we even going to? You've got Shiesel, who his role's all over the place at the moment, and and North Melbourne, like, you've got no confidence in any of those players.
00:21:36
Holmesy
You've got Zorko that's put together three pretty bad scores in the last three weeks in in soft matchups, so he's still coming down, albeit does have... The Saints matchup, you've got the St. Kilda boys, who Sinclair's still quite expensive, just off the back of a stinker, but you'd think he'd be better for the run.
00:21:53
Holmesy
Nassai Wangadeen-Milera, we know he's a top six defender, probably if he stays in defence, but he's been thrown around into the midfield um when St. Kilda aren't going very well and and they're not going very well at the moment.
00:22:05
Holmesy
You know, Nick Martin, he's he's there, but he's not cheap anymore.
00:22:06
Lew
it's,
00:22:09
Holmesy
And if we go all the way up to him, is that going to affect our upgrades in the in the next week's coming? Like, is this the week to go up to them? Lou, there's some trade targets and fallen premiums, which we're going to get to later, but they all come with a bit of risk too.
00:22:23
Lew
Yeah, they do, mate. and Maybe a Kane Farrell. could Could I interest you in a bit of Kane Farrell? um Yeah, well, this is this was it, though, Holmesy, last week.
00:22:31
Holmesy
Don't.
00:22:33
Lew
It killed me not to bring in a Nick Dacos, but if the three defender line went wrong, that was it. There's there's nowhere to go in defence if you're not using your upgrade there. So...
00:22:45
Lew
um yeah if you if you've got that three rookie defense this week i think you're going to have to get creative squeeze some cash we've got a few options which i'm sure we'll talk about later on in the podcast be it a stewart sicily rivers um there's a couple guys there but i don't think we're going to be getting up to um blokes that we're necessarily and entirely comfortable with i think they're still going to be stepping stones
00:23:10
Holmesy
Yeah, look, i I carried over cash. So ive I've got the cash this week to to get up to, I think, a Nick Martin type. i I can't get up to a Zorko without going a basement rookie. But i just I just worry and I think a lot of coaches are going to be in the same boat that if we spend it all this week and we don't get any good rookies coming in the next couple of weeks, then...
00:23:31
Holmesy
where are our upgrades going to come from? Maybe we we can get creative with ah a Caleb Daniel type who who seems a bit shaky and and that North role seemingly potentially under threat.
00:23:42
Holmesy
But at the moment, if we're looking to get these rookies off field, I'm not sure we're going to have the cash to do it. So maybe it needs to be a ah punt on some of these players, but we will get to them in a little bit. that The next thing I wanted to touch on, Lou, and we started speaking about this pretty early in the round and and it kind of dictated me editing my trades as well, but the TDK move.
Should TDK be Traded?
00:24:04
Holmesy
So he's he's falling now and he's bleeding cash quickly off the back of what what's he gone in the last three weeks.
00:24:11
Holmesy
82, 75 and 62, albeit he did have a tough matchup against Tristan Cherry, but had the soft matchup against the Eagles and and looked tired and disinterested. Does he have to go now?
00:24:23
Holmesy
I know we've got pressing issues, but man, Tristan Cherry seems to be on the way back up now. It's going to be the only week where they're this close in cash. Is it now or never with TDK in terms of do we have to trade him this week or potentially hold him to his buy?
00:24:39
Lew
Well, that's going to be the question. I think everybody's coach's lips that owns TDK this week. it's um It's a fair conundrum because, of course, we've got Tom DeConning who comes up against Geelong this week. We know that Geelong have always been pretty easy for Rucks to score against. Meek threw up, ah I think, a 120 last week.
00:25:00
Lew
So you'd you'd have to think that, especially against um a bit of his brother too, that Tom DeConney could turn one on. He went 121 last time they met, um off the top of my head. So hey he's probably one that we need to consider trading.
00:25:18
Lew
um But it's it's it's about when, because if he pumps out another 120 this week against his brother... um or Stanley, it's going to be a tough trade the following week because in the back of your head, you're going to think, oh, maybe he's turned the form around.
00:25:33
Lew
um And at that point, you may as well keep him until he's by because he's got the round 12 by anyway.
Cherry's Fitness and Trade Potential
00:25:40
Lew
I will say, even though people want to jump to Cherry, you're going to have Rowan Marshall in a couple of weeks' time too, who's falling at a rate of knots.
00:25:48
Lew
Whether or not he can turn that fitness around is anyone's guess. But if you miss the Cherry boat, I don't think you're going to be left alone on an island. What I will say about Cherry, though, which is quite interesting, he's only kicking the ball 25% of the time, which is which is a massive drop-off on last year.
00:26:07
Lew
Pretty easy to suggest why. He's got that hamstring issue. But if the tackling isn't going his way and his kick-to-mark ratio is totally out of whack, um can he find that ceiling enough week-to-week that we actually want to um to take this punt on him?
00:26:18
Holmesy
Thank
00:26:25
Lew
I mean... we've seen one game of good footy with this hamstring. It's, it's going to be something that he continues to manage. Like you said, Holmes, he's got that hamstring tendonitis.
00:26:36
Lew
Uh, he comes up against port this week who has Jordan sweet. Um, I can see a world where TDK comfortably outscores Cherry this week.
00:26:48
Lew
Where it's going to get interesting is for a season-long perspective because I think between TDK and Cherry, there's potentially 15 points a week. So the sooner you jump on that, um the more you're sort of generating per week into the buyers and post the buyers. So do you guys have any strong opinions here?
00:27:11
Holmesy
Well, I'd love to get Harmy's opinion because if we had have said at the start of the year that we'd be able to get Tristan Cherry priced at 97 or whatever he is, him. we would we would all be jumping at it. It's it's been the perfect dream scenario.
00:27:26
Holmesy
It just kind of sucks that TDK's fallen off a cliff because we wouldn't be considering it yet if the form hadn't dropped off Harmy. But where are you at with TDK and and Cherry and and, you know, thinking about creative ways that we can make cash? The TDK down to Briggs looks shaky now off the back of a 39, but we do know what Briggs can do when he gets a bit of fitness and form. But are you looking at trading TDK this week?
00:27:51
Jon Harmey
Yeah, and apologies to anybody that um took the advice that Briggs is a good trading option last week. um I have been looking at trading Tom De Koning, but I just think that the Geelong match-up, and I do like the idea of going to Cherry. So the the only thing with Cherry is the injury, the injury risk and, you know,
00:28:20
Jon Harmey
It's easy to say, well, three 70s in a row and then yeah he 116 on the weekend, so he's back. Well, we may need another week just to confirm that because he he was injured, and regardless of whatever the club put out about it.
00:28:37
Jon Harmey
And having a look at his stuff on the weekend, he got 43 hit outs. that's That's quite a large number. And he got 11 tackles, and again, a large number. So, yeah, I'm just a little bit uncertain.
00:28:52
Jon Harmey
um And I also don't have the money carried over that you do, Holmesy. um it's it would mean that I would have to be going with two sideways trades for the week, which i also don't love the idea of.
00:29:05
Lew
So what that's 26 points outside of tackles and hit-outs. Is that right?
00:29:13
Holmesy
Yeah, math checked out.
00:29:15
Lew
Yep. Okay. um Yep, that's that's an interesting one to say out loud.
00:29:17
Jon Harmey
30, yeah, 36, 30. good
00:29:20
Lew
um Did you just rule out Briggs as well, Harmy? I'm sort of um'm eyeing him off still. um
00:29:26
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I wouldn't rule him out completely because he's a 90 guy and he's priced well below that.
00:29:31
Lew
Yeah, exactly. yeah Yeah, I think he's still a good trade in and a good way to get creative with some cash.
00:29:33
Holmesy
I mean.
00:29:38
Holmesy
Yeah, that's the other thing about TDK is that he has the Crows the following week and we just saw what Briggs did against Adelaide. Now, that game, I think, is going to be a bit of an anomaly with the way that those two teams decided to play.
00:29:52
Holmesy
ah They essentially just both structured up behind the ball and were very happy for the the backs to to fling it around. You look at some of the numbers that GWS had in the the back line and where Callaghan and Green got all their disposals. But yeah, it's just something to mull over. But I think after listening to your boys talk, I think I've got bigger pressing issues than to to trade out TDK. But just know that if I do that, he'll he'll put a 120 on my head. So ah good to to talk about that, boys.
00:30:18
Holmesy
I did want to just touch on Nick Dacos quickly as he was the popular trading target last week.
Nick Dacos as a Trade Target
00:30:24
Holmesy
and And for good reason, he's got what, three 130 scores now in his last four years.
00:30:29
Holmesy
Seems like he's a man on the mission at the moment, Lou, but priced at 107 now, do you think coaches have have missed the boat on Nick Dacos? He's still going to be a ah pretty popular target this week for coaches that didn't get him off the emotion side of it, but do you think it's too late?
00:30:44
Lew
No, I don't think it's too late. um Depends what you think he can score. I think he's probably a 110 guy um more weeks than the not. So there's a little bit of value there. I think I'd prefer to shop with a little bit less. um Like I said last week, he's going to cop attention. I refuse to believe that Nick Dacos bottomed out last week or the week before. I can see him dipping down into the nine hundreds again.
00:31:11
Lew
um off the back of maybe a little bit of attention. So, ah yeah, yes to Nick Dacos, obviously, but um if you're looking for a little bit of a point of difference, I know Brad Scott's already come out and said that potentially multiple people will be um tagging Nick Dacos. I think that's probably just a suggestion that'll all be a team effort, but you never know. It's it's going to be a big Anzac Day game. I could see it falling either way.
00:31:40
Holmesy
ye Yep, yep. Fair enough. Can't wait for Will Setterfield and Sam Durham to both try and put time into him and Ned Long to have 30 touches. It's going to be fantastic. Hope you boys jump on there.
00:31:53
Holmesy
Harmi, the floor's yours quickly. You wanted to talk quickly about some of the runs coming up and and who has some favourable runs if we're looking at some premiums to target.
Teams with Favorable Fixtures
00:32:02
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I just think um we'll probably talk about some of these trade targets that we're eyeing off. But I guess in doing so, you need to consider who they have as ah their match-ups coming up.
00:32:14
Jon Harmey
um But having a look at it on Monday night, I really did like the you know the idea of Hawthorne, which is why I held Will Day all that bloody time, only for him to go out with a new injury. But Hawthorne, Brisbane...
00:32:30
Jon Harmey
And Collingwood are the three teams that I can see have a really good run over the next sort of four to six weeks. So, um yeah, perhaps, as you say, Holmes, maybe Ned Long is our man and we should all jump on board.
00:32:46
Holmesy
Lou, is Ned Long, you already touched on him before, but is he someone that's seriously edged into your trade plans? And I suppose I'll throw the question. Are you looking at going down from maybe a a failed mid-pricer or someone that's topped out? i'll use maybe I know you don't have Tom Power, but a a Tom Power type.
00:33:02
Holmesy
Would you be looking to go down to get the cash from a Ned Long to then go up elsewhere? Or would you be looking at potentially fixing two deadweight rookies and getting up to a Ned Long? What's your what's your preferred or do you think they're both an option?
00:33:15
Lew
I think they're both absolutely an option. ah Ned Long is going to be very popular this week just because I think coaches are scratching around for a bit of cash and there's going to be plenty of coaches um adjusting their ruck line too. So yeah for me, I think Ned Long ah becomes a serious option. He was last week and good on the coaches that identified that and jumped, but um now he's he's probably carrying a little bit of importance in terms of how some teams are structuring up each week and, uh,
00:33:45
Lew
Look, if you can turn two dead rookies into Ned Long, I'll fail to see how that's going to be a mistake, sort of pending injury. So um I'd tick both of those scenarios off.
00:33:59
Holmesy
Yep, he was the the top CBA getter against Brisbane, albeit they, in that last quarter, they kind of shifted things around with Dacos moving back and and throwing some other players in there. But that was a very low stoppage, low contested game of footy, and he still put up a good score. I think hopefully that could even be at more of a basement score for him in ah in a more contested game. So, yeah, like the Ned but Long option, and he becomes even more of an option now that these rookies are starting to falter.
00:34:28
Holmesy
Boys, what I want to do now before we get into the questions is just a bit of like or dislike on some of these fallen
Fallen Premium Players: Like or Dislike?
00:34:33
Holmesy
premiums. So more of these options we might dive into a little bit deeper, but some will just do a bit of like or dislike. I'll throw to you first, Harmi, because you dismissed it last week.
00:34:42
Holmesy
Nick Martin priced at 101, break-even of 89, like dislike? like or dislike
00:34:48
Jon Harmey
I don't know if I dismissed it completely, but yeah, he looked bloody good the other day um for the Bombers, but I mean, he's priced a million dollars. It's not as if you're picking up a bargain in Nick Martin. I guess I can see why people are looking at it because there isn't that many options in our defensive line, um but I do feel that his role can be thrown around a bit and Yes, you've got 122 on the weekend, but I wouldn't be relying on that week in, week
00:35:21
Holmesy
Yeah, and and Lou really likes him and and for good reason. We talk about the high time on ground, 100% time on ground on the weekend, but what we have seen with your Bailey Smiths, even Errol at times when they do have these really high time on grounds, eventually they do start to come back to the pack because it's not really sustainable.
00:35:41
Holmesy
So, you know, if his time on ground comes back to sort of 85, 90, which is more of the sort of average for the high-end players, then potentially some of that scoring drops as well. But I do really like Nick Martin as an option.
00:35:53
Holmesy
I just still worry that if I pay up close to a million dollars for him this week, what's that going to do to my side over the next three, four, five weeks?
00:35:57
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:36:00
Holmesy
But yeah, well done to the coaches that got him last week. Really, really good pick in that matchup. Lou, I'll go to you for the next one. We'll stay with the the defenders. This one hurts, but Max Holmes after the weekend, now priced at 97 off the back of a 73, non-tagged. he Does that kind of scratch him off as an option for you or is he someone that you're still looking at? He did have 92% CBA, so maybe it was just an off game.
00:36:25
Lew
No, it wasn't an off game. um I'd call it a tag. I think they had serious sort of goggles for Max Holmes in that midfield. They allowed him no space. And after a first quarter where they gave him no attention, um he just couldn't get off the hook in those final three quarters. So I think that was coaching by Sam Mitchell. Like I've said before,
00:36:49
Lew
Max Holmes might be one of, he could be top five in the comp in terms of football players. Like he is so effective with the football. He's he's quick, he's tall, he's strong.
00:37:00
Lew
He's one of the best field kicks in the comp. Like this guy is going to be stopped because he's in a good side. um So he's going to get off the chain some weeks, but other weeks he's going to get that attention.
00:37:12
Lew
um He's the number one tag target at Geelong now.
00:37:17
Holmesy
Yes, I suppose does that mean that coaches that don't have him avoid him, Lou, knowing that, yes, we're going to get some ceiling scores, but we are going to get some floor scores as well.
00:37:26
Lew
um I wouldn't avoid him. ah just would be cautious of that fact. Like, what did you say? He's priced at 97. I think he's probably got a few points value still. But yeah.
00:37:40
Holmesy
Harmi, we need Sam on the podcast for this one. Lockie Ash now priced at 95, break-even of 65. He's been a hat-winning pick so far. A lot of coaches traded him out in round two after that 60 in round one. But is it too late for Lockie Ash now or do you think he's a top six defender?
00:37:57
Holmesy
Keeps getting done.
00:37:59
Jon Harmey
Yeah, it's it's interesting because Holmes and Ash are a similar price point and the other day when was looking at trade scenarios, these are guys are like the maximum I could kind of get and I saw Holmes and I just didn't love the idea of bringing him in and I feel the same about Ash. Like priced at 95, you really want them to be confident that they are top six for the rest of the year and I just don't feel that with Lockie Ash, and I may be wrong, and maybe I haven't watched enough GWS games, but I guess I'm just stuck in the mindset of we have seen this before where he can hit a ceiling, but in the end he just averages 75 to 85 for the season, and um that there may be some lockdown rolls or some lower scores coming up. So, yeah, not one that I'm sort of looking at bringing in.
00:38:54
Holmesy
Yeah, and listening to Xavier Ellis talk on Selby's podcast today, actually, like GWS need to kind of change up the way they play a little bit. Yes, they're they're flying, but too many chip-chip around the back line, not enough direct footy, and they got found out against Adelaide on the weekend. So i don't think your footy club's going as well when you're having Lockie Whitfield have 40 and Ash having 30, 35 in the defensive half. I think they need a...
00:39:19
Holmesy
Probably switch it up a little bit so you'd think that he probably comes back a little bit, but he's been a fantastic pick so far for those that started him. Louis, Carl Amon priced at 92. We just spoke about Hawthorne's insane run coming up.
00:39:32
Holmesy
Cicely keeps getting thrown forward. Is he an option or do you think 92 is about what he's going to do?
00:39:39
Lew
Look, history would suggest 92 is probably about what he's going to do. he's He's going to have some pop scores and he's going to have some average ones. I think there's a lot of good ball users at the Hawks and Carl Amon's certainly one of them, but um some some days it's not going to go his way, others it will. So for me, I think that's just one that I'm happy to um just leave that path untravelled.
00:40:03
Holmesy
Yep, I would agree with that. Harmi, we've got Nick Dacos, but if you didn't get Nick Dacos, could you go Nick Dacos light and get his brother Josh in defense priced at 91? We haven't seen a ton from him this year so far, but he's had some pretty tough matchups and the art of fantasy is being able to pick these things before they happen. Do you think there's value in Josh Dacos or do you think Houston coming back, Perryman potentially playing in defense as well with how Ned Long's come in that...
00:40:32
Holmesy
Josh Dacos probably is what he is, is that sort of low to mid-90s.
00:40:37
Jon Harmey
Yeah, well, Josh Dacost is actually only just a touch more expensive than Houston, I saw. Look, I really like Josh Dacos as a trade-in option. you ask if there's value in him, given that he's gone down, ah think, about $85,000 in price for the year um based on these you know um huge end to the season last year.
00:40:59
Jon Harmey
I actually think he's actually a really good trade-in option, and Collingwood do have a nice run coming up. So, yeah, I i think he's an option for us in defence.
00:41:10
Holmesy
Lou, Rory Laird priced at the same, break even 110. Is there any option in him or do you think the game's gone past him and he's going to be that mid-80s to 90s averaging player?
00:41:20
Lew
Now, he could go the way of Sam Doherty and actually be dropped, I think. I'm not sure what role he's really playing in that side. So, no, I'd be leaving Rory Lead.
00:41:30
Jon Harmey
Got subbed out couple of weeks ago, didn't
00:41:32
Lew
Too hot.
00:41:33
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, true.
00:41:34
Jon Harmey
Oh, yeah, too hot. Yeah, too hot.
00:41:36
Holmesy
so right Sorry, sorry, Bales. Harmi, John Noble, also been a fantastic pick for draft coaches and and anyone that started him off the back of a 113, I think it was, on the weekend, getting a lot of kickouts and getting a lot of easy ball in that back 50 for Gold Coast.
00:41:51
Lew
Thank you.
00:41:54
Holmesy
Have we missed the boat on him or is there still value in his 88 price tag?
00:41:59
Jon Harmey
bit the same as Lockie Ash, isn't it? um They came in at a nice price point at the start of the season. And look, for for the for those owners, they've got the majority of their price rise already. Yeah, I like Noble.
00:42:12
Jon Harmey
I did like him at the start of the season. i sort of felt that ah one of him or Rioli would end up being having that key distributor role. But now he's priced at $88. So is he a good trade-in option?
00:42:25
Jon Harmey
Hmm. I don't love it, to be honest. I'd rather just spend up a little bit more and get a real premium.
00:42:33
Holmesy
Yeah, and and we know this every year. They've got, what, their two back-to-back Darwin games coming up soon, which we know hot dewy footy not necessarily good for scoring at the halfbacks with what we saw last year.
00:42:45
Holmesy
say
00:42:46
Jon Harmey
Kill the career of Alex Sexton, that.
00:42:49
Holmesy
Yeah, and Fiorini. So, yeah. Lou, I'm going to throw to you for this one because you've been pretty active in our group chat saying that you've got the vibes about this bloke and we do love a good vibe.
00:43:00
Holmesy
So, James Sisley priced at 84, still getting thrown forward at times, but Cal Shadir on the horizon, horribly out of form. Xavier Ellis seems to think that Hawthorne are going to want to, you know, get him up and going because they need the captain of their footy club firing.
00:43:16
Holmesy
So, James Sisley, you're interested?
00:43:18
Lew
Yeah, well, that it sounds like X might be picking up on the same vibes. I just was watching James Cicely post-game and he he just looked so disappointed um in himself and probably his team as well. And a bit of that body language the week before, i think Hawks are going through a bit of a lull and Cicely seems to me like a very you know proud sort of bloke. And I think he's going to go out there with a bit of grunt and um get his boys on his shoulders and um
00:43:49
Lew
that that might look like a return back to defence with Cal Shadir looking fit. Jack Gunston's in some great form too. So but Hawthorne have Richmond, then West Coast Eagles. I could, or maybe it's the opposite, but I could really see Sisley getting onto the end of a few here. And what we know with James Sisley is you got to take the the good with the bad. So far, it's probably been on the poorer side, um but I know that James Sisley is going to turn this around at some point and,
00:44:17
Lew
When and if he does, um i ah can see a couple of 150s on the horizon against some soft matchups. Obviously, Hawks are going to be a gun side this week, so ah this year, so...
00:44:29
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I think I like the idea of Sicily and the idea of what he's done in the past. I just, I don't think the Hawthorne Footy Club play that same brand anymore that's conducive to him having those ceiling scores in defence. I think they're a far better side now that Hockball get it forward at all costs, very direct.
00:44:50
Holmesy
I'm not sure that sort of, you know, for him to have a big big ceiling score, he's going to have to take a lot of intercept marks, which he absolutely can do. And, Yeah, we just need him for a run to get him through to the buys and then we can flip him. But yeah, I'm not sure that's going to happen, Lou. But I am interested in the idea of a James Sicily.
00:45:08
Lew
Yeah, I think Hockball might be out the window for a little bit. um Will Day is a massive omission from that side, so it wouldn't be the worst idea if the Hawks wanted to control the football a little bit more before you know going green light. But um yeah, we'll see. He will be a fun own if if any coaches jump on top of him.
00:45:28
Jon Harmey
Fan own. Come on. Have you owned previously?
00:45:32
Lew
I have, mate.
00:45:32
Holmesy
Tommy.
00:45:33
Lew
And I've had the C on him for a 160. It's pretty fun.
00:45:36
Jon Harmey
Oh.
00:45:37
Lew
Just, you know, expect a suspension and and maybe a 44 the following week.
00:45:44
Holmesy
You know there's those games where you just keep refreshing your phone and the player that you have just does not move and you feel sick.
00:45:50
Jon Harmey
Yep. Yep.
00:45:51
Holmesy
There's also those games for Sicily where you just refresh and every single time you refresh, it's just up and up and up. It's just, as Lou likes to say, that dopamine hit. But yeah, we'll...
00:46:03
Holmesy
We'll see. I think Kelshidia coming back in round nine or whatever, they're pegging him to come back. I think that's when you maybe look at it and and hope that he stays in defence. Harmi, I'll throw to you for another fun own. Actually, no, we'll do it. Tom Stewart. there's ah There's a question later about if you can get up to him because that's all you can get up to. Do you do it? But hesa he's hard to have at the moment, isn't he, Harmi?
00:46:27
Jon Harmey
He is, however, he's a good trade target. I mean, God, if I wasn't an owner, I'd be looking at trading him in. He scored over 100 for the last game before that illness, gastro.
00:46:41
Jon Harmey
He scored over 100 there and look, He's priced at 78. He may even go down a touch more, but yeah I think he's a really good trade target for those non-owners.
00:46:55
Holmesy
Louis, we're running out of time, so just quickly I'll throw you a pair of Melbourne boys. Jake Bowie priced at 84, kind of falls in the Lockie Ash mould of we've missed the boat, but there could still be value there with the way Melbourne are playing. and And Trent Rivers is someone that we kind of pegged as hopefully having a breakout down, I think about 80K and now priced at 77.
00:47:16
Holmesy
really only had the one stinker and and now had the monster on the weekend. Is there any interest in these Melbourne boys or do you think with Stephen May coming back and Judd McVie that, you know, maybe there's a few moving parts and had a soft matchup against Frio to say the least?
00:47:29
Lew
Yeah, I was just going to say there's a couple of troops returning for the D. So, look, Bowie's been a fantastic pick for those that went there. i think now if you're chasing him, you're probably just matching those coaches and not actually building much ground. ah and And then in terms of the other one, Trent Rivers, ah look, he's probably got to go on the watch list, but I don't think he attended a single CBA on the weekend, did he?
00:47:54
Lew
So melbourne Melbourne got the win. I'm not sure what to read into that. We were picking Trent Rivers as a breakout, as a midfielder. So far, but we've barely seen that. um And it's clearly you know not working either ah in in terms of those first couple of weeks. So I'm not sure how much midtime we're going to see from Trent Rivers this season. And for that reason, I'm happy just to to let that one go.
00:48:19
Jon Harmey
They probably use him in there though, couldn't they? Like if you were picking the team, looks like they're sort of sucking up to Cosi Pickett a bit and trying to get him through that midfield. But really, they're a bit one-paced with Oliver Petrarca and Vani and they could really use Rivers in there, I reckon.
00:48:33
Jon Harmey
But anyway, but we I don't, yeah.
00:48:35
Holmesy
Cosi's been good. Cosi's been good, Harmi. At least he has been for the first three games. Harmi, last one before we get into the questions. I just want to quiz your mind on this bloke. Jordan Ridley priced at 74. We've seen him as a mid-80s guy before and and with a serious ceiling with how the Bombers like to chip it around back there. He had the injury game and and then he had that game on the weekend against the Eagles where none of the defenders scored because of the the way the game was played. But is there any interest in a Jordan Ridley priced so cheap?
00:49:04
Jon Harmey
Yeah, yeah, look, a fleeting interest. i was actually quite surprised at the low score he put up on the weekend because, um you know, getting subbed out early in the season and his price plummeting.
00:49:18
Jon Harmey
i did think that he could be a good trading option, but, yeah, he doesn't sort of have all of the kick-ins and um They share the load a bit more in that Bombers back on these days than two years ago when he really broke out. So maybe he isn't the trading option that I thought he was going to be.
00:49:38
Holmesy
ye Yeah, fair enough. i just yeah He's cheap and the punters want to know some options that are that are cheap this week. So thought I'd throw him into that. All right, let's get into the questions. But as always, just a reminder that PodPod AFL has partnered with Q Platforms in 2025 to answer all of your AFL fantasy
Partnership with Q Platforms for Fantasy Queries
00:49:57
Holmesy
questions. So if you'd like to help the PodPod out for a small fee, ah you have the ability to...
00:50:03
Holmesy
send in team reviews, questions. You can ask for Lou, Harmy, Sam, if you'd like, and you have the option to get a fully personalized audio response. So if you want to check that out, head over to askmeonq.com forward slash podpotafl.
00:50:18
Holmesy
The link is in the show description below. First question, Harmi, I'll throw to you for this one. This one's from Adam. What's more of a priority, getting a rookie defender up to a Tom Stewart type?
00:50:30
Holmesy
That's all he can afford. Or upgrade a Davidson to a primo mid via a Levi Ashcross DPP? So in other words, do you get up to the best available defender or do you go early on a Davidson to get to a bona fide midfielder? What do you think?
00:50:45
Jon Harmey
If it were me, I'd probably be trying to get the rookie up to Tom Stewart um because Davidson is scoring well enough to stay on field for you. But might it might depend um who that primo mid was that you're targeting, I guess.
00:51:00
Jon Harmey
But yeah, I wouldn't have any trouble getting with going a rookie to Tom Stewart.
00:51:05
Holmesy
Does the fact that we might have a Callum Mills available in the next week or so um sort of change that, knowing that you don't have to burn a trade now that we might have him available? Or do you think he's coming from too far back and you wouldn't put him in your plans at all?
00:51:20
Jon Harmey
No, I'm not factoring him in at this stage. I think we're speculating. He's had a lot of time out on the sidelines and you'd want to see it for a week or two from him first. you know He's not going to walk straight up and start dominating midfield, I don't reckon. So I think we just need to hold fire on Mills for the time being.
00:51:39
Holmesy
Fair enough. Lou, this one's from Olivia Calvi. Who do you think has the best run and offers the most value at their current price? So I would like you to rank for me, Nick Dacos, Nick Martin, or Petrarca.
00:51:52
Lew
um ah I'd probably put it in that order, I think. Nick Dacos, Nick Martin, and then Petrarca. ah I'm hesitant on Christian Petrarca. We probably haven't discussed him much in this podcast, but the Dees scored 1,800 or just shy of 1,800 fantasy points on the weekend. Got a win.
00:52:12
Lew
um and 1,800 is a lot um just for the coaches playing along.
00:52:16
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:52:18
Lew
He scored 100, and he was one of their better players. I just don't think the ceiling is there for Petrarca, and he's going to be closer to that 90-95. um Still a good pick, and I think he's going to be close enough to top six, but ah I am questioning whether or not um Christian Petrarca is the greatest option, but he does have a nice run.
00:52:41
Holmesy
80% CBAs on the weekend. I think the fact that Cozzy Pickett's now in that side means that Cozzy can play forward at times, which means they're not as reliant on Petrarca. I think he's a full-time midfielder and I think he's some serious value on that 90 price tag.
00:52:56
Holmesy
um But yeah, I think...
00:52:58
Lew
um but You would have wanted to see a bit more then, wouldn't you, if he's 80% CBAs and he's he just scraped 100 in a win with massive fantasy points.
00:53:04
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, fair. But, you know...
00:53:08
Lew
Look, ah I'm taking your point too. I'm not going to poo-poo Christian Petrarca too much because I fail to see how he's going to be a poor pick. But um yeah I just do question how good of a pick he actually is.
00:53:23
Holmesy
Harmi, this one's from Brad. He wants to know, is it too early to trade both Levi Ashcroft and Davidson? So if he does that, he can get up to Dacos, getting in a Matt Carroll.
00:53:34
Holmesy
Or if he trades Davidson and a cheaper rookie that's dead, say a Zach Reed, he can only get up to 950k. So is it too early to trade out both gun rookies to get a gun premium or do you think you need to look elsewhere?
00:53:48
Jon Harmey
um ah I don't think he should. He's got two on-field playing players in Ashcroft and Davidson who are both going fine. And in his first scenario, means bringing Lindsay on field. I don't think he is really doing what we want as an on-field player.
00:54:07
Jon Harmey
um Or just trade Davidson to read and read to get a 950 player. Yeah, I don't think you're going to find a 230 rook. And we spoke about that earlier um with those downgrade targets. Look, if if you do end up with a 230 rook presenting um themselves, I think that is probably the way to go.
00:54:28
Holmesy
Yeah, I mean, Selby talks about it all the time in terms of if you're getting up to that gun premium, he's happy to go early on these rooks. But I don't think you go both of them at this stage. They both probably have another 40 to 50k to make, given they have another good score in them, which we just spoke about the cash being hard to make. If you're you're losing out on that 100k, then it's going to make things difficult down the line loop.
00:54:51
Lew
No, good mate, I just thought I'd wave my hand at you.
00:54:54
Holmesy
Ah, fair enough. I'll stay with you then, Lou. This one's from Clay Smith, who is ranked 65. So he's looking at long and a rook. ah Or he was saying, does he get funky and go TDK and Devo to Goldie and then a Timmy Taranto track type?
00:55:12
Holmesy
So I don't...
00:55:13
Lew
Oh no, don't, don't, don't do it.
00:55:14
Holmesy
ah Yeah, you go.
00:55:15
Jon Harmey
Please don't. Please don't do that.
00:55:17
Lew
No, yeah, just just leave Goldie be.
00:55:19
Jon Harmey
Play it safe.
00:55:21
Lew
um And if he does well, just you know give him a bit of a clap, knowing that no other coach is also doing that. um ah yeah How old is he? 40? 37.
00:55:32
Jon Harmey
No, he's not that hard.
00:55:33
Holmesy
they He's 37. Maybe he's got a Zorko-like career best at 37.
00:55:34
Lew
thirty seven
00:55:39
Lew
I don't know. I don't think that's probably the go. I'd rather look at a Flynn who I'm not super confident in either, but clearly there might be some cash restrictions there.
00:55:50
Lew
um Long and a Rook sounds pretty good to me.
00:55:53
Holmesy
Yeah, long and a rook. Yeah, sounds great. And you just have to think back to last week. some Some coaches went cherry to Briggs and look how that turned out. So imagine you rank 65 and then you trade TDK to Goldie and TDK goes over 100 and Goldie puts up a 50 or 60.
00:56:10
Holmesy
You're going to feel pretty bad about how your season
00:56:11
Lew
can you Can you give me a line on TDK, Holmesy, just just for next week? Well, what do we think, and and you too, Harmi, what do we think TDK can do against um the Cats,
00:56:22
Holmesy
it's a very It's a very difficult thing to predict, Lou, because who knows what Geelong are going to do with their site. it I mean, if if Stanley gets rested and he goes up against his brother, then it could be 120 plus.
00:56:33
Holmesy
If it's Stanley in and Blitzarv's and his brother triple teaming him around the ground, then it could be a So... Yeah. Yeah.
00:56:43
Lew
last Last time I picked a player with a match-up as his brother, it didn't go too well.
00:56:51
Holmesy
yeah
00:56:52
Lew
Zachy Reid.
00:56:53
Jon Harmey
yeah
00:56:53
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:56:54
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, Lou, I don't reckon he's playing well enough to score 100, put it that way. So I'll say, I don't know, 90. But as I said earlier, I'm going hold.
00:57:06
Lew
Yeah, on this is I guess it's all a nugget at the moment for the listeners that are still listening, but I think I'm on the hold too. I think I'd rather lose that 50K and know that Cherry is going to be okay or even see a turnaround of Rowan Marshall.
00:57:25
Lew
I think I'm comfortable enough with that.
00:57:29
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. Don't mind that at all. Two more questions, boys, and we'll finish up. Lou, this one's from Tyler Finlay. Can we trade Tom Power or should we be focusing on moving the rook? So what do you think? Tom Power, time to go.
00:57:42
Lew
What did Powell go on the weekend? I've seen some pretty grim scoring throughout games while it's been live. 75, yeah.
00:57:49
Holmesy
think it was a 75. Yeah. yeah
00:57:51
Lew
yeah So he's not done anything since since round one, essentially. I think yeah um he's probably in that Will Ashcroft, Finn Callaghan basket where there's a bit of cash on their head. If you can't do anything else, um yeah, going up to an Uber premium could be a way to go there depending on you know what rookies you're actually dealing with.
00:58:10
Jon Harmey
Yeah, just Waterloo coming back changed the dynamic of that midfield for power.
00:58:11
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:58:15
Holmesy
Yeah, agree with that. you it It might even be made for you at selection if they if they drop in, but ah that would just be speculation. Last one, Harmi. This one's from Ben Tate. I just want an old school Stato stamp of approval. Do you tick off trading Davidson and Marais to Tunstall and then Petrarca?
00:58:34
Holmesy
And Tunstall's on the bench.
00:58:35
Jon Harmey
Yep, I like it It's an upgrade on Davidson to Pataka, so stamp it.
00:58:41
Holmesy
Yep. Beautiful. All right, lads. Big episode. Thanks again for for joining us. It's been a pretty brutal week for fantasy for myself, but look, hopefully ah and a bit of a bounce back week and and then ah a week is a long time in fantasy footy and everything's going to change. But Lou, why don't you just give us a closing thought on what you're excited for for this weekend of the the fantasy round?
00:59:06
Lew
I'm excited for what coaches actually do this week. I think it's, it feels like the first week where the competition is going to differentiate itself from sort of the starting squad vanilla picks and, uh,
00:59:21
Lew
I'm interested to see what direction it goes in. I think there's a lot of players out there that could stick their hand up nice and high and so say pick me this week too because there's a couple of that are coming down in price, which I'm liking the look of. So ah exciting times ahead.
00:59:37
Holmesy
I agree with that. And Harmi, why don't you give us a thought to finish as well?
00:59:42
Jon Harmey
Oh, well, not too much. I guess we've got another bit of a spread out week, but it should be good. Watch the Bombers get the win on Anzac Day and Nick Dacos to run around, get as many touches as you want and look good for my fantasy VC.
01:00:02
Holmesy
Yep, and I'm looking forward to going camping from Thursday to Sunday and coming back and having Lou as my assistant coach somehow traded me into the top 500. Lou, that would be fantastic. so So no pressure, but to everyone else, make sure you're following us on Twitter at PodPod AFL. Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your content.
01:00:24
Holmesy
And we'll be back here next week with another round review. Bye.