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Return of the HuGOAT | Humble Lewy | Round 3 Review! #PODPOD
3.8k Plays22 days ago
The full panel is back for an epic review of round 3 this week! Join Holmesy, Harmey, Lewy and Sam as they discuss all of the relevant topics leading into the final round of best 18!
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Transcript
Return of Hosts and Missed Opportunities
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Tuesday, 1st of April. We're back this week with a Tuesday record.
00:00:29
Holmesy
A bit busy yesterday, but we've got a full ah full deck on... Full crew on deck, sorry, this week. And we're happy to have everyone back, including this man, John Harmy, who, let's be honest, mate, you've disappeared for a while. You've gone MIA and then what? Hugo Garcia goes 110 and you decide to come back in the country?
00:00:49
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, particularly frustrated, um yeah, Holmesy, because i was out of the country and ah first day out of the country, flick on my KO app. Oh, KO app doesn't work outside of Australia. Gutted.
00:01:03
Jon Harmey
Rely on you guys for some advice. And what do you tell me? Hugo Garcia, worst pick of the year. Got to get him out. You're hopeless. Righto, fellas. Come back in, 110.
00:01:14
Jon Harmey
And because of your advice, I had him sitting with the emergency in the forward line. So thanks for all your help there, guys.
00:01:21
Holmesy
so So you're telling us that Hugo scores 110 for you and he's stuck on your bench with no way to get that score?
00:01:29
Jon Harmey
That's the last time I listened to you, fellas. Apart from Lou, maybe, because he's going so well, I might listen to him a little bit more.
00:01:35
Holmesy
Yeah, that's a great segue, Lou. Welcome back, mate. Good to have you back. Look, we're going to get to get to how you're going in a minute, but how are you, mate?
00:01:40
Lew
Yeah, yeah, thanks, mate.
00:01:44
Lew
Yeah, good. Yeah, I've just been off bush bashing for the last week, I'm feeling pretty rejuvenated. It was a bit of a stressful week, though. I had um Jordan De Sena, who the listeners may have seen on X, doing my trades for any laid outs because I had no reception, so I wasn't quite sure what to expect when I ah opened up the Fantasy app last week and on the Sunday just to see what I scored, so...
Analyzing Recent Fantasy Rankings and Strategies
00:02:10
Lew
Yeah.
00:02:11
Holmesy
didn ah Didn't sound too stressful, mate, when you managed to get reception for five minutes and send us some of those voice notes. I might have to insert them into the into the podcast. But you are you are flying at the moment.
00:02:22
Holmesy
where
00:02:23
Lew
ah don't ah don't know about those voice notes, mate. There were plenty of beers sunk around the fire, so we might keep those to ourselves.
00:02:30
Holmesy
might have to Might have to listen back when I insert them in. But back this week, we've got Sam sam on deck, who just quietly is traveling pretty pretty good as well. We'll get into it, Sam. But how are you?
00:02:41
Sam
Yeah, good, mate. and Yeah, obviously have to show my face after a good week. um But yeah, watch me disappear if I start to slide down the ranks again. No, happy to be here. It was pretty difficult to record while I was on site, but keen for a big discussion today.
00:02:58
Holmesy
Beautiful. So let's go, we'll go round table around the the room just to to give our results and our ranks and how we're sort of going at the moment. So unfortunately, Harmi, I'm going to have to start with you, mate. What did you score on the weekend and what's that got you ranked at the moment?
00:03:12
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, i was feeling all right about it um until the round just gone. Let's have a look. My score was 1775, which I dropped about 9,000 positions. So, yeah, not not a very good week, but, um look, plenty of rounds still to to make up some ground, Holmesy. Yeah.
00:03:31
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. unfortunately, that we'll probably get into it, but the Dawson captain didn't help any other decent captain scoring and you're right up there with but some of the other teams.
00:03:39
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:03:40
Holmesy
So that's, ah yeah, just a bit unlucky there. I scored the 18.56, which had me move up another 6,000 odd spots into 12.889. um Once again, just pretty pretty ordinary, but not the worst. I'm steadily starting to go up, building that team value.
00:03:58
Holmesy
um So hopefully over the next couple of rounds and moving into best 22, I can and continue to build and and hopefully make some spots back. Sam, how would you go on the weekend?
00:04:09
Sam
Yeah, pretty good. um My score was 19-15 that puts me at a rank of 5,900-ish. i yeah, pretty happy. Just looking to work on the team value as always this week, I think, but more on that later.
00:04:27
Holmesy
And now the ah the man of the moment, Lou, why don't you reveal to the listeners where you're sitting.
00:04:33
Lew
Oh, give it up, mate. um I scored a nine forty one so I'm at 279. I've come in about 1,500 spots, so it's been a nice start so far.
00:04:44
Sam
$2.79, Lou, surely you've missed a ah number off that.
00:04:48
Lew
Yeah, well, no, apparently not. It might be a glitch in the system, I think, but um yeah, no, I'm happy with that start, but um yeah, now the pressure's on not to stuff it up.
00:05:00
Holmesy
Go on, Lou. Why don't you give us your Stato and your Dossie pick for the week?
00:05:02
Jon Harmey
you
00:05:04
Lew
Well, I'll give my Stato pick to Jackson Pryor just because he was one that I reckon I had penciled in in about September last year. And it hasn't been in a heaps, it hasn't been an amazing start. He's gone sixty two sixty one but the 72 on the weekend versus Port was just nice to see. And that that cash generation is well and truly ticking over. He's got the buy this week, but um comes into Melbourne and the Eagles after that. So hopefully he can keep ticking along. um Are we going with a dossie pick yet?
00:05:34
Lew
Holmesy? homesy
00:05:34
Holmesy
Yep. Roll straight in.
00:05:36
Holmesy
Yep.
00:05:36
Lew
Yeah, Dossie pick is going to be the Ted Closie.
00:05:40
Lew
And unfortunately, I wasn't planning on bringing him in all week up until about six o'clock on Saturday night when I found out ah the target, which I had in Mitch Nevitt, was a late out or rather been her turned into the sub. So i brought
Unexpected Trades and Strategy Shifts
00:05:57
Lew
in Ted Closie, panicked a little bit in that hour, rang up my mate Doss as well and I said,
00:06:04
Lew
Hey, mate, there's a couple of Eagles playing tomorrow. i like that Tyrell Dwyer. um What do you think of him? Should I be trading him in? and And Dossie said, no, no, no, you can't trade him in. He's a wingman.
00:06:15
Lew
I'd trade in Ryan Marich, though. and And I've scoffed at Con, mate. Ryan Marich, he was the sub last week. He scored 74 on the weekend, 27 break even. But that's going to be the man we're going to be yeah unpacking a little bit today in this podcast. So Dossie pick of the week. yeah You throw enough shit at a wall, some of it's going to stick.
00:06:33
Jon Harmey
Ha ha.
00:06:37
Holmesy
Love you, Dossie number one fan. Sam, why don't you give us your Stato and Dossie picks?
00:06:42
Sam
Yeah, our Stato pick of the week for me was Jack Sinclair with 134, was tossing up a lot between him and Nazair. Couldn't split him. um I purely went Sinclair off a gut feel and very happy with the outcome.
00:06:59
Sam
Dossie pick of the week, I was spruiking this guy all preseason. He completely fooled me and it has to be Jason Horne-Francis with another poor score. um I don't really know what to do with him aside from a hold and hope it improves. But, yeah, geez, he's causing a bit of a headache.
00:07:16
Holmesy
Far out, Lou. Can you explain that one to us, please, mate? He just looks, he's dropping chest marks, he's giving away free kicks, he doesn't look interested. What's the deal with the Hornet?
00:07:27
Lew
Yeah, I mean, ah I'm a little bit stumped myself. Obviously, we all watched him in the preseason. He looked phenomenal and and passed pretty much every single eye test, and ah including against some of the best players in the competition with that Indigenous All-Stars match. But um I think there there might be something going on perhaps off the field there or maybe in terms of his confidence. He's is clearly quite an emotional player as we've come to see over the last couple of years. So I think um maybe just with the off-field stuff going on at Port Adelaide, there's bit of instability and it's reflecting in Horne Francis' game. So...
00:08:05
Lew
um Yeah, big question marks there. And I think many would look to jump off of him if we had a few more forwards um at our disposal.
00:08:12
Jon Harmey
hey
00:08:14
Lew
But for now, I think um he's ah he's a reluctant hold.
00:08:18
Holmesy
Does he get the windy tag this week?
00:08:22
Lew
Horny? No, I don't think so. I think um potentially rosy, but from what I'm hearing, I think Zach Butters might make the finish line and and get into the side. So if that's the case, um they might stick the clamp straight onto Butters.
00:08:37
Holmesy
ah tough into Tough introduction back to footy for Zach Butters. Harmy, why don't you give us your Stato and Dossie picks?
Trade Decisions and Player Performances
00:08:45
Jon Harmey
Yes, yeah, okay. Well, my Stato pick, um my trade I thought I'll you i cash out a bit of money. and um I had some in the bank from last week, so I went Camper Ali out and and traded him up to Nathan O'Driscoll in the end. was looking at Nevedon O'Driscoll and obviously the sub ah made that decision for me. So, yeah, coming in, 99 on debut, and that was an awesome score for somebody at his price point, so I was really happy with what he did.
00:09:15
Jon Harmey
My Dossie pick, well, as Lou said, i mean, i Captain Dawson sounded like he was running around the ball. He he had nine touches at halftime, so... Yeah, and that one really hurt after um him going really well like the last couple of weeks. So, um yeah, this was kind of the first round of footy that I had watched. And so yeah to come back in and see some of these blokes flip what they had been doing the first week that I had been watching was a bit disappointing. But anyway, Jordan Dawson going to have it. 85 points as captain.
00:09:45
Jon Harmey
Not good enough.
00:09:47
Holmesy
Yep, put him on notice, Harmy. um Exactly what I did with my Dossie pick last week, and I'm going to reward this player with my Stato pick this week, Max Holmes, 119. one nineteen um I don't even want to know what my team score was going to look like if Max Holmes didn't have his 47-point last quarter to finish on 119.
00:10:06
Holmesy
So he was a good pick at the moment, averaging over...
00:10:08
Lew
47 point last quarter.
00:10:09
Holmesy
two
00:10:10
Jon Harmey
yeah
00:10:10
Lew
ah didn't I didn't catch that one.
00:10:10
Holmesy
Yeah, 72 at three-quarter time.
00:10:11
Lew
Wow.
00:10:13
Holmesy
And then I think DC got into my DMs and said, Holmes is saving it for you. and i And I'm being greedy. I need more here. um But yeah, 119 was a very, very good result from that. um And he's got Melbourne this week. And hopefully that's another good matchup for him.
00:10:30
Holmesy
My dossie pick, and this one's on me, unfortunately, being a little bit strapped for cash and and thinking about the trades I needed to do, i went Perryman to Farrell. um I think it was an okay, like the process was okay. He'd scored an 88 in a flogging and then a 114 in a smashing. So I thought maybe maybe his floor's a little bit higher than what it is. But 61 against Essendon was just no good, um considering I think they had like, what, 19 kick-ins and Burgoyne and Bergman all all went really well. But yeah, he'd he'd want to reward us this week, Harmi against the Saints, wouldn't he?
00:11:06
Jon Harmey
Oh, absolutely. i mean, ah yeah um I was been trying to sort of clean out my team so I don't end up with dead you know dead weight. I traded out Perryman and went to Kane Farrell and, yeah, it was a bit hard bit hard to watch. He didn't really score as well, especially when you've got Burgoyne lighting it up next to him.
00:11:23
Jon Harmey
But anyway, I'm sure it'll be better this week.
00:11:27
Holmesy
Yeah, part of the main reason that I went to Farrell is because I needed the money on the other end to get in Rankin. But in in the end, I decided to not get Rankin and went Foster Warner to get the 125 from Davidson on field, which I'm not too unhappy about. But in so in hindsight, maybe I just go the Rankin trade anyway and and lose nine points and take the 116 that Rankin got. But Sam, why don't you rate your trades for us as as you had a bit of ah a beauty this week?
00:11:54
Sam
I did. It might actually be the best trades I've ever made in Fantasy Classic. So I did Perriman to Sinclair, as I mentioned at the top, and then Sanders to Rankin as well. So, yeah, it's not very often that your two trades go 110 for you at this point in the season, but i I'll bloody well take it because the team needed it.
00:12:07
Jon Harmey
oh
00:12:12
Jon Harmey
Come on, you sound like the people on um X and Facebook and that that go, oh, thinking about this trade, um Levi Ashcroft to Zach Merritt. How many hundred thousand did you have in the bank before this week?
00:12:27
Sam
Yeah, I did have about 500 or 600k in the bank, so that did help.
00:12:31
Jon Harmey
There you go.
00:12:32
Sam
That did help.
00:12:33
Jon Harmey
Yep.
00:12:33
Holmesy
and you know what harmy he goes he goes quiet all week i'm quitting fantasy i've had enough i'm off the podcast and then all of a sudden a good week he's done the whole show doc when are we recording boys he's up and about aren't you sammy boy
00:12:47
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:12:47
Sam
Yeah, guilty as charged. Guilty as charged.
00:12:48
Jon Harmey
ah
00:12:49
Sam
It's a fickle game. Enjoy the highs because you're sure as hell going to sweat the lows.
00:12:54
Lew
Yeah, good call. Well said.
00:12:56
Holmesy
And Lou, why don't you talk to us about your trades?
00:12:59
Lew
Yeah, so I went day to Closie, which was originally Nevitt, and then Perry up to Sinclair. So I ended up banking 370k into this week. So I'll probably give my trades a C really, because Closie wasn't actually on the radar at all. It was just a bit of a panicky hour there. And yeah,
00:13:18
Lew
Yeah, thinknc is probably a bit stiff on Sinclair. It was nice to get the 134 from him. But yeah, the the Richmond ah Tigers matchup, that might be a bit of a meta going forward in terms of the trade-in targets.
00:13:30
Jon Harmey
So Geordie DeSena panicked when he made that try?
00:13:33
Lew
No, no, that was last week's trade.
00:13:35
Jon Harmey
Oh, last week.
00:13:35
Lew
No, no, I wish I could put that one on Geordie.
00:13:35
Jon Harmey
Oh, right. Okay. Yeah. Yeah.
00:13:39
Holmesy
That's a good segue in, Lou. Now, we're going to go into our hot topics and you've got
Challenges with Geelong and Player Uncertainty
00:13:45
Holmesy
something planned here. So the floor is yours for a bit of a monologue. You want to talk about these Geelong shenanigans. What have you got for us, mate?
00:13:52
Lew
Well, I mean, first of all, what a piss take on the weekend in terms of um fantasy coaches and what they were handed. So Bailey Smith and Tom Stewart, in some doubt, all week. And Bailey stuewart ah sorry bailey Smith makes the line. Tom Stewart's a late out.
00:14:09
Lew
Mitch Nevitt, popular owned player in fantasy, has made the sub. um And just to make things better, the cherry on top was that the 50% owned ah Sam DeConning was made the sub out candidate. So, um yeah, is it too far to think that maybe Chris Scott is just trying to mess with us fantasy coaches? Because he's really pushing the buttons there.
00:14:33
Lew
um But I'll go into... what why I want to talk about these Geelong players is just because of the fixture that's coming up. So we've clearly got some issues here in terms of a Mitch Nevitt, who may be a sub-candidate over the next couple of weeks, and Sam DeConing, who's probably going to have Stanley joining him, and that role may shift to towards the forward line or even worse, into key position defence. So...
00:14:59
Lew
When I look at the the schedule here, they play on the Friday night, but you go into next week round five of Gather Round and they're there on the Thursday. So any coach planning to hold Sam DeConing, hold Mitch Nebbett,
00:15:14
Lew
ah Sam Closey or really any other Geelong player um in the gun to trade next week, I think might have to be a week of waiting because locking in on that Thursday night of gather round just feels fraught with danger, especially when we've just had a week where we've seen a couple of laid outs and a couple of unexpected subs there.
00:15:37
Holmesy
Well, let's go round table. Do we ah we all have SDK at the moment? Harmi, do you have him?
00:15:42
Jon Harmey
Yes, I do. Yep.
00:15:44
Holmesy
Okay, so let's talk a little bit about what our plans are this week and if SDK is in your in your trade plans, Harmi. So are you looking to get off him this week?
00:15:54
Jon Harmey
I feel like if I've been tinkering enough with the sort of mid-price players. So from that sense, I would be keen to trade him if I can get him up.
00:16:06
Jon Harmey
And I can't really get him up all the way to a player that I'm comfortable with. So I can only really get him to like your Lockie Ash, Harry Himmelberg type players. And um i also don't think that's it.
00:16:19
Jon Harmey
ah Yeah. a goal there so at at this point in time I'm thinking of holding but man 66 and being subbed out it's not ideal is it if I had a good option to trade to I think I would seriously consider it
00:16:37
Holmesy
Is it as simple as we wait for teams this week and if a Stanley's named, then we just have to jump? Lou, because he is playing Melbourne. So even if he is playing in defence, Melbourne have been giving up some big, big numbers. Is there a chance that it you know his break-even's 55? Could you just hold him and and hope that he goes above that even if he is playing in defence or you just want him gone?
00:16:58
Lew
I think he has to go. It's a lot of hope there. He's um not necessarily going to have that ruck roll this week. And I look at some of his scoring. He's gone at about 20 hit outs a game. So that's all good in round one versus Liam Reedy.
00:17:12
Lew
But against Marshall, you take those 20 hit outs away, he's 50. You take the 20 hit outs versus Ford away, he's 46. So... he's not He's not a massive scorer, and if that's not goingnna if he's not going to be in that hit-out role, um giving him a bit of a head start, this stinks to me. I don't think he's even necessarily going to be part of our best 18 this week ah if he if Stanley's in that side. So I think he's a must trade, and that Thursday night in round five solidifies it for me.
00:17:44
Holmesy
Sam, do you have similar thoughts on an SDK?
00:17:48
Sam
Yeah, I do. um Spot on. I think if Stanley is named, he is he's definitely a must trade. If Stanley isn't named, it's a more difficult decision.
00:17:58
Sam
Thankfully, it's a headache I don't have to deal with. Blessed by the gods in that regard. So I don't envy anyone.
00:18:06
Lew
So I think Shannon Neal has been put on the injury list and he's a test for this week, but in a bit of doubt. So if Shannon Neal is out, i think Stanley might be the the obvious replacement there.
00:18:20
Holmesy
Yeah, look, that's that's interesting. I think for me, it comes down to, and this is what I'm kind of toying with, is I don't have any DPP. So it might actually depend on the rookie that I end up going. So if i decide to go to bias, then that's going to allow me to then trade SDK to a forward or a midfielder. But...
00:18:38
Holmesy
If Marais ends up being the rookie that I have to go to because I decide he's a must-have, then that means I'm not going to have the ability to get SDK up to anyone of note, um knowing that I need more money to get up to the Sinclairs or Zorkos or something like that. So, Lou, for me, if if I decide that Bice is the guy, he'd be happy for me to then use DPP to get De Koning up to a Rankin or at an underpriced mid.
00:19:01
Lew
Yeah, i would. And potentially I'd explore um even a double downgrade, including a bias and being able to use a bit of DPP to get Sam DeConing out um next week.
00:19:14
Lew
um If you want to take that risk with that Thursday night game. But um yeah yeah yeah, we might have to miss one here.
00:19:22
Holmesy
So that's a good segue, Lou, because I know you're considering it this week because of the team, that the place that your team's in at the moment in terms of rank and team value. So you're looking at a double downgrade this week.
00:19:33
Lew
Yeah, I am. Yep. So I'm expecting to slide back significantly this week. I just want to get a few more things in order here. And these rookies, I don't know if it's just me adjusting to, you know, the fantasy inflation that we sort of copped with this salary cap at the start of the year. But some of these rookies we're trying to target aren't exactly cheap. So um I'm looking at a Riley Bice here. I thought he played phenomenally well in um round three.
00:20:00
Lew
ah Christian Moraes on the weekend was fantastic with the 93. He's gotten a good start on his break even there. And I just see these guys as potentially, um you know, must-haves in terms of cash generation over the next three or four weeks.
00:20:13
Lew
Outside of that, I think there's a little bit of a gap. I'm not sure if there's necessarily the quality coming through either. So um want to take these ones while I can, hide behind best 18 and then look towards a ah double upgrade going into best 22 potentially.
00:20:29
Jon Harmey
Hello on that then.
00:20:29
Holmesy
Tommy.
00:20:30
Jon Harmey
yeah just
00:20:31
Holmesy
You got.
00:20:32
Jon Harmey
ah well we'll we'll We'll get to talking about some of those rookies bit later then, will we? Because it's a bit of a mixed mixed bag, I think, with who we're targeting there.
00:20:43
Lew
yeah Yeah, definitely.
00:20:45
Holmesy
Well, let's go into the the trade out then. So what are we going to do with Xavier Lindsay? So before the before the weekend, he was one of the must-have rookies, looked to have the best role and the best scoring ability out of all of them.
00:20:59
Holmesy
ah Melbourne have listed him as a one to two week injury, definitely out this week, but they're not ruling him out of next week, Sam. Is it as simple as holding him, knowing that he could be back in two weeks or are you looking to get aggressive and and trading him out, knowing that there's some money on his head at the moment?
00:21:16
Sam
I'm not sure. I'm actually still thinking about this one quite a lot. I thought the break-even would be higher than 37 after a 12, but obviously he has two great scores in his bank already.
00:21:28
Sam
ah if like I'm just leaning towards trading him out this week, only because I really like the look of some of these rookies, and they've all got you know some of them have great break-evens.
00:21:39
Sam
I... um I wouldn't talk anyone out of holding, though, if they feel like they have bigger trade-out priorities either. louis
00:21:48
Lew
Yeah, i' I'm looking towards the future here. And um as you said, Xavier Lindsay looks like an absolute star. And he's certainly got that scoring capacity. So um on the injury list, he's listed as one to two. So we'll assume he's not going to play this week.
00:22:02
Lew
And let's say we assume he's not going to play next week um into round five. that um That then takes us through to the DPPs, which means if he can be brought on field um in your midfield ah while shifting a Levi Ashcroft into your forward line, that might be the perfect little um little niche to fill there in terms of scoring. So that that's what I like about it.
00:22:25
Lew
um And I think if he can come back and and go at an 80 clip at the 37 break-even, that's probably good enough to sit at M8 for a couple of extra weeks. So... I'm leaning towards holding. If they told me it was a month off, I think maybe I'd i'd look to offload, but I think three weeks is is it about the sweet spot for me.
00:22:45
Holmesy
Harmi, do you have any different thoughts about Xavier Lindsay?
00:22:49
Lew
He's also a loop too.
00:22:53
Holmesy
<unk> We've lost Harmi Sam.
00:22:56
Sam
Yeah, I wish it was just going to say, does anyone have – I mean, he's played really well, and obviously he's a high draft pick. But does anyone have any concerns with guys like Tholstrup and Windsor coming back um and pinching maybe his his wing slash halfback time?
00:23:14
Jon Harmey
Only if they came in and like smashed it. like He's actually a very good player. He had a good role. And I saw him as being somebody that we could hold for quite some time. With the 12 in his scoring cycle there and um being uncertain about how long he's out for.
00:23:32
Jon Harmey
I mean, ge when he went down, they thought he'd done his ACL, didn't they?
00:23:32
Holmesy
Thank
00:23:35
Jon Harmey
So... I guess I'm looking at trading. However, i say that and I held Tom Stewart. So I'm already holding a player that's uncertain.
00:23:45
Jon Harmey
I don't really feel very comfortable with holding two. So, um you know, he's he's got a bit of money on his head. I'm thinking about downgrade. And if I can get ah an all right upgrade on the other side of things, I'll probably look at pulling the trigger.
00:24:00
Holmesy
Yep, ah agree with that. Harmi and Lou, I think he was on the wing in the first game and he might have been a bit more of halfback in the second. Do we think it's if he misses one or two, then that means he's not going to be able to get the defensive DPP at the first edition?
00:24:14
Lew
ah Yeah, no, I don't think he'll he'll pick that up at all.
00:24:20
Sam
The only other thing that um I'm scratching my head about is this one to two. what are the i don't want to try and guess everything, but what are the prospects of him coming on as a sub, you know, a week from now?
00:24:32
Lew
Or um brought through the VFL because I think he was managed into round one as it was. So, look, it's all a concern.
00:24:39
Sam
Yep.
00:24:41
Lew
I don't think trading this week is going to be the wrong decision. So if you need the cash and you can get up on the other end, i think it's fine.
00:24:52
Holmesy
Beautiful. Louis, let's go into that now. So there's ah a couple of rookies. Well, there's a lot of rookies that have um you know started to come up now. So let's let's go through them. So let's start with a few rookies that are a bit more expensive. So Clay Hall's done it again. That's his second 80 in three weeks.
00:25:10
Holmesy
Now priced at 416, but that's still with a break even of negative 16. um You've got O'Sullivan priced at $405K with a bit of a higher break, even a $14K, even ah a Warner, break even negative $6K.
00:25:25
Holmesy
Can we go these guys or is it is it simply ah you know the community's right and you go down to a Marais, you go down to a Bice or you double downgrade to those two?
00:25:38
Lew
ah For Max Hall, priced at 416k, he is getting up there. And the minus 16 break even is great, but it's going to take one poorer game for that to go up quite quickly.
00:25:55
Lew
think maybe the boat has been missed for that now, unfortunately. ah Conor O'Sullivan is interesting. He played really well on the weekend, but... I still don't think he's going to be much of an accumulator. He's ah he's a far better footballer and he'd be better off focusing on that too. So I think at 405k, you just let that one be. 14 break even, he's not going to get away from you.
00:26:16
Lew
And Corey Warner, he's probably um one of the most popular traded in players on the weekend just due to Sam Davidson's pop score of 125. I don't mind this. so There's a couple of injuries at the Swans that have been reported today. Obviously, the injury list come out today.
00:26:32
Lew
um ah think he's got a little bit of job security in the minus six break even. So ah I'm okay with coaches jumping onto a Corey Warner still at Well, and... eighty five k
00:26:43
Jon Harmey
What would you do if he gets dropped, Holmesy?
00:26:47
Holmesy
Warner, I would probably delete my team to be fair and just quit the podcast as as we did last year, you know.
00:26:48
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:26:53
Lew
oh and and
00:26:54
Sam
Don't worry. has
00:26:56
Holmesy
Nah,
00:26:57
Lew
it It'll...
00:26:57
Sam
my my
00:26:57
Holmesy
not
00:26:58
Sam
My theory is Corey isn't getting dropped until Chad signs the contract renewal.
00:27:02
Lew
Yeah, well, ah I like that theory.
00:27:03
Jon Harmey
I like that.
00:27:05
Lew
But um Caden Cleary as well on the weekend in the VFL had 37 touches and had a ripper game by all reports.
00:27:10
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:27:13
Lew
So obviously he was suspended um for a couple of things off the field, but he he's now eligible to play. So um he was just about a walk-up start by the sounds of things going into the preseason games or round one.
00:27:28
Lew
He might be one that features in the next couple of weeks.
00:27:32
Holmesy
Look, I don't think he's been there worse by any means.
00:27:34
Holmesy
He's pretty dynamic off that half forward line, um gets up the ground a bit. Look, it would be devastating if he if he's out this week. He's not named. But yeah, we'll deal with that when it no doubt comes on on Thursday night. But I think at this stage, he hasn't done anything wrong.
00:27:34
Lew
Thank
00:27:51
Holmesy
um and He's scoring quite well and and could be a good rookie for us. There's a couple of others here, Sam. So Draper, sub-vest three weeks in a row, but with Rochelle out now for six weeks.
00:28:02
Holmesy
Is he an option at 352K? Is break-even still up there? So he could probably afford to wait one more, although he does have the Gold Coast, which typically is a ah pretty good matchup for scoring.
00:28:14
Holmesy
um Look, Trevalier was supposed to be the sub on the weekend, but ah with the steal laid out, he came on and and looked great in his first game. Price at 343. We've spoken about Moraes, but what about your boy Langford? You came into the group chat and you said, I'm locking in that trade next week.
00:28:31
Holmesy
And we know that that's you have to do that. Otherwise, the fantasy gods will punish you.
00:28:34
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:28:35
Holmesy
so Harvey Langford, do you want to go there?
00:28:38
Sam
I am pretty keen. Obviously, CBA role looked pretty good, rising star star nomination. And the fact that Melbourne just stink at the moment, um they've got to play the kids.
00:28:51
Sam
They've got to play the kids. So, i look, and it helps that he's one of the cheaper ones because I am keen on quite a few of the the blokes you've just talked about.
00:29:02
Sam
ah You read my mind. I think you can wait one week on Draper with a break-even of 27. And if he is named, have a look at what the role is with Richelli out. Of course, there's no guarantees he's not going to um he's going to avoid the sub-vest. He could be sub again.
00:29:18
Sam
yeah, super keen on Langford. And Moraes, his break-even is just it's almost unignorable. Be interesting to see what role he plays if Zach Butters is named this week.
00:29:30
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I like it. I mean, something that Lou said in the group chat kind of stuck out a bit, how he he played out of his skin in that game and and still scored a 70-odd. I don't have the the score off the top of my head.
00:29:41
Lew
Yeah, 75. One tackle and a goal. 66% tog.
00:29:42
Holmesy
um Yeah, and and Melbourne aren't very good.
00:29:44
Lew
and aal sixty six percent total
00:29:46
Holmesy
Like, it's going to be... Yeah, tough going for the young man, but you'd think that game's now cemented his job security for a while, especially with Lindsay out, and they're going to need to play the kids there. Their season's already essentially gone. So I do like him as a long-term play, but just understand that, yeah, the the floor might be there with the the low time on ground if things don't go his way every game, Sam.
00:30:10
Sam
The only other thing I'll add is he's one of those guys that actually does look ready-made for AFL football already. Like his pipes are as big as my legs. um it's He looks good. He looks solid. And I'm not surprised. That's why that he he's been given an early CBA role. So,
00:30:26
Sam
um you know, Marais Breakeven, as I said, is so low. He's almost a must-trade. I think we can swing. I think people can swing with the rest of the community here on that one.
00:30:38
Holmesy
Can we, Lou, can we just go over Marais, please?
00:30:41
Holmesy
Because, and I mean, we are so guilty as a fantasy community, especially us content creators, where the echo chamber's real.
00:30:41
Jon Harmey
Yes, please do.
00:30:43
Lew
Yeah.
00:30:49
Holmesy
um And Marais, he scored 60 as the sub, and then he's come on and and looked unreal against Essendon on the weekend for his 90-odd. He was everywhere in that last quarter, especially.
00:31:01
Holmesy
But, you know, too often with these picks, we just lock them in. We don't have too much thought. Look at Closie last week, scored a 90, looked unreal, came back to earth with a 40. You've got Butters coming back.
00:31:12
Holmesy
You've got Jones and a few others that are at best 22 that'll be coming back as well. Is Moraes this lay down Mazaire pick that we think he is at this stage or is it still quite risky?
00:31:19
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:31:22
Lew
No, I think you're right to question it. Um, Holmesy for sure. It's, you know, he was the sub when he debuted last week and, and yeah, he got a full game on the weekend and looked fantastic. But, um,
00:31:34
Lew
There are a couple of players that need to come back into that side in Butters, Jones. ah There's one other as well that escapes me at the moment, but he couldn't have done himself um any more favours on the weekend. And Port have been screaming out for a wingman for a number of years now, probably since Dersmer and Pollock have departed. And I think...
00:31:55
Lew
they may have found one there. So certainly this week, he'll get every opportunity and it's against the Saints. So with a minus 27 break even, he makes money the second year he steps on the field.
00:32:02
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:32:05
Lew
And if he can find a couple of plus sixes out there, then that could be one that really quite quickly gets away from you. or could see that being 80 to 100k of cash generation if he has ah if he has a nice game there.
00:32:18
Lew
And If he can do that, well, then, you know, I think that's probably the leap of faith that, um you know, the club are going to show him some faith from there. So, ah yeah, I'm big on this pick. I think you're probably going to be riding it with most of the competition anyway. I think the risk of missing it while everybody gains it is probably going to outweigh it here.
00:32:41
Holmesy
Yeah, i'm just I'm just really torn. Like I said, if I if i trade in Marais, then I can't really do anything with SDK. So that's why I'm looking at a bias instead. mean, you look at the price difference.
00:32:51
Holmesy
um ah At the moment, it's about six, seven point difference. So is Marais going to be seven points better than Bice over the next four, five, six games? Potentially, yes. Potentially, no. It's just something you've got to weigh up.
00:33:04
Holmesy
um i'm I'm torn, Harmi. Where are you sitting at the moment?
00:33:09
Jon Harmey
I'm torn myself. and and I think it's but don't think it's as clear cut as what some are making it out to be. But look, I don't think we can ignore the cash generation that's going to occur in the next two, three weeks as long as he's not the sub.
00:33:27
Jon Harmey
um It was funny. like he actually played really well. i ah saw early on and I saw Joe Barry getting in heaps of the ball. was like, geez, he looks bloody good. And sort of Morales seemed to take over after half-time and they looked kind of similar. So i was getting a bit confused. But when you look at the numbers he put up and a lot of um uncontested marks as well, I just think he had a really good game.
00:33:52
Jon Harmey
My thing for him is... how cemented is he in the 22 and not being the sub. so this is where I'm a little bit uncertain. But if Lou says we're all aboard, it's probably, I've probably got a follow suit.
Emerging Trade Options and Comparisons
00:34:07
Lew
How's the pressure? But yeah, he was he was the first traded in um at the beginning of this week and and he hasn't moved. I think the 37-year-old on the other wing could probably have a bit of a substint over the 18-year-old that's shown something.
00:34:20
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
00:34:21
Lew
So um yeah, I'm back in my race here.
00:34:22
Jon Harmey
Yep, yep.
00:34:26
Holmesy
Beautiful. All right, lads, before we get to some trade-in targets, I just want to talk about the some popular players and sort of the urgency of of needing to trade them out. So I'm going to go with you, Lou, to start. so we've got some popular players here. So we've got Perryman, if you didn't manage to get off him last week, if you were maybe holding him to to take a...
00:34:47
Holmesy
a Zach Reed score or or something like that. We've got Sanders, Will Day, SDK, Campo, and then Xavier Lindsay. Now, I suppose um Campo's in there if he doesn't get back in this week or if you're starting to build up a number of red dots.
00:34:57
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:35:01
Holmesy
So talk me through a little bit of strategy here in terms of how you rank these players in terms of being urgent to to trade off of.
00:35:10
Lew
Yeah, well, it's it's this one's going to be so team-dependent, isn't it? I tend to think that these mid-prices can sometimes be the biggest priority you have because if they're scoring like rookies, um they may as well be a rookie and they they're clearly not scoring like premiums. So I think Perryman...
00:35:31
Lew
is one that needs to go now. We saw that role regress in from round one into round two. um And it's just, yeah, it stinks to me. So he's got to go.
00:35:43
Lew
Sanders, I don't know. can you is Are there any Sanders owners in here? can you
00:35:49
Jon Harmey
Mate.
00:35:50
Lew
Can you expand on on ah your thoughts on Sanders at the moment?
00:35:51
Holmesy
Guilty.
00:35:54
Lew
Because he probably fits that mold of going 70 every week, but not much more.
00:35:59
Holmesy
You go, homie.
00:36:01
Jon Harmey
At least he actually got a run in the midfield this week. He was around the ball quite a lot that second half and he did some nice things. um Look, I think it's a bit of a luxury trade probably because um there's there's a chance he goes up, but he's hitting his break even and and he's not losing money, unlike Perryman, who is leaking money and poor scoring really poorly and got a bad role. So I think parro Perryman's clearly a trade out ahead of Sanders at this point.
00:36:34
Lew
Yeah, I think I agree.
00:36:34
Holmesy
i I'm waiting for the for the Sanders stinker, to be honest. There's been something in every game that he's managed to to save. um And I'm just waiting for that game where it doesn't he doesn't manage to save it and he has a 40 or a 50. The role's not there.
00:36:49
Holmesy
um We saw it in the preseason. Lou even mentioned it as well that He's not that outside player anymore. but The Bulldogs have him playing as this inside guy when he's in there. His role is not to get on the outside and that's showing he's got a very high handball to kick ratio at the moment. He's tackling well, but he's not getting a lot of free easy ball on the outside. So i'm with you, Lou. I think Sanders is a pretty urgent trade-out target, especially if you don't have a rank in.
00:37:16
Holmesy
um it's ah It's a pretty easy swap to get up to someone that's pretty much going to be a lock to be a top six.
00:37:22
Lew
And we I agree. And we've got SDK in there. I've already given my thoughts on that. So I think I would order it SDK Perryman Sanders Will Day.
00:37:32
Lew
think if you've kept him to this point, you might want to look at keeping him for the fixture um over the next six or so weeks where it opens up for him. Campo, I'm okay with holding. I think he might be a chance to come back in in the next couple of weeks.
00:37:46
Lew
He's got West Coast and North Melbourne within those three weeks as well. So, yeah,
00:37:52
Jon Harmey
In a VFL.
00:37:54
Lew
yeah well, um I'm not seeing too many options to go sideways for Campo either. We've just discussed 10 rookies and pretty much all of them are a sub-risk. So, I'm not sure unless you're confident on a rookie that you're moving off Campo.
00:38:08
Lew
um And then Xavier Lindsay, I'm made it known. I'm comfortable holding that.
00:38:14
Holmesy
Sam, I'm just going to go to you. We'll just back over Will Day because you've you're always been a believer. Are you holding him now that he's at his bye are you someone that's going to get off him now?
00:38:25
Sam
No, i' um I'm holding him. um i again, kind of set myself a line where I would hold him for this round and I said if he goes over 80, I would hold him for the good run which Luis just talked about and he did just go at 80. So at this stage I'm holding him only because I am really keen on this double rookie downgrade this week because I think we have a nice batch and then it could dry up after that.
00:38:54
Sam
But I think if you wanted to trade him, that would be fine. He obviously hasn't performed well since round one and he has the buy this week. So yeah, wouldn't begrudge any coaches that want to move him on.
00:39:06
Sam
armyby
00:39:07
Jon Harmey
Yeah, i um it was a shame. I didn't get to the game. would love to have got there, but I had a bit going on. But I was about to chirp off at halftime to all of those Will Day traders when he was on 55 and ah he just kicked another goal that was disallowed. um ah Look, I still think that he's not a bad pick and I'm actually feeling quite comfortable to hold him at this point in time.
00:39:30
Lew
I could see Will Day being a trade target in a couple of weeks' time for coaches that are maybe scratching around for some cash.
00:39:34
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:39:36
Lew
He's only, what, 850K still, so I think that's potentially a play too.
00:39:44
Holmesy
Yeah, I'll be holding. um He's got Port Adelaide. Lou, do you think Port Adelaide tag him? Are they are they running Willem Drew as a tagger at the moment or not really?
00:39:51
Lew
Yeah, not really. um I'm not sure Port know what they're doing, so, yep, anyone's guess.
00:39:58
Holmesy
Yeah, might not be as as much of a tough match in Gather Round there, but yeah, we'll see. have to see what he did last year to see whether they put time into him. On the flip side, we've got some mid-priced options that potentially coaches might be looking to trade in. Me and Lemon spoke a lot about them last week and Pretty much all of them failed each state except Jake Bowie, go figure.
00:40:19
Holmesy
ah But we're we suckers for punishment here. um so we're going play a little bit of like or dislike on some of these mid-priced players. So Sam, I'll start with you. Will Ashcroft, after a bit of a me mediocre start, has gone 115 and 90 in his last two with a bit of an increase in his CBAs this week with an unbelievable run coming up. Richmond Dogs, Collingwood Saints in the next four. Is Will Ashcroft someone that you're you're keen to explore?
00:40:46
Sam
um So if you force me to say like or dislike, I say dislike just. um Obviously a good bounce back, little uptick in CBAs, great running his next four, but I think, yeah, you flagged it perfectly. Those other guys that everyone was thinking about, Powell, Callaghan, Farrell, all priced around this similar price point and yeah and all it takes is one Not even a bad game, just an underwhelming game.
00:41:14
Sam
um And then you really stuck with them again. So i think if you've got him in your team, just be happy that he's bounced back and look forward to maybe some good scores in the next three or four.
00:41:25
Sam
I would not be trading into him, though, unless you really like a sideways from Will Day to Will Ashcroft.
00:41:32
Holmesy
Harmi, this. this
00:41:32
Lew
He's not very expensive.
00:41:34
Lew
ah You could get up to a Will Ashcroft with two four hundred k rookies if you had a bit of cash in the bank.
00:41:39
Jon Harmey
Yeah, but he's 840... Lou, he's 840,000. um He's not ahead of Neil. He's not ahead of Dunkley. He's not the main man. I can't see him averaging over 100.
00:41:50
Jon Harmey
just don't know if that's worth it.
00:41:51
Lew
Yeah, um'm I'm not expecting him to go at 100, but I'm just... um that' These guys that we want in the midfield are very, very expensive and we're going to be paying big bucks. So I don't mind Will Ashcroft as a target over the next couple of weeks.
00:42:07
Sam
then The only thing I'll add is, so he's he's essentially back to the same position he was in at the start of the year.
00:42:08
Lew
Yeah, fixture is so nice.
00:42:08
Holmesy
Bye.
00:42:14
Sam
um You know, albeit he's got a slightly better run ahead of him. So if you weren't hot on him at the start of the year, I don't know why you would be now all of a sudden.
00:42:18
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:42:24
Sam
But look, as I said, again, it's one worth considering because the run is so good. Richmond, Dogs, Collingwood Saints. I mean, for Mitt
00:42:30
Lew
That could be your ticket up to an Uber.
00:42:33
Sam
Yeah, he could. He could. Or he could drop another 60 or 70 and then you're stuck with a guy.
00:42:38
Sam
So, yeah.
00:42:38
Lew
Yep.
00:42:40
Holmesy
Harmi, this one's for you. Jake Bowie, 740K, break even of 44. Very consistent around that high 80s to low 90s. Only one kick in this week with May back, but still got it done in ah in a soft matchup against Gold Coast. Is it too late to go ah a Jake Bowie now?
00:42:58
Jon Harmey
I don't know how much of a soft matchup it was. They got absolute smashing um
00:43:02
Holmesy
Four defenders, four defenders.
00:43:04
Jon Harmey
off for defenders. and ah Look, I actually had a look at him last week with Farrell, so i and I opted for Farrell. So, um yeah, I don't know.
00:43:17
Jon Harmey
He's one of those players that he can play the lockdown role at times, and
00:43:17
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:43:23
Jon Harmey
you know there is a chance that he'll be 50 oh like i wouldn't be surprised if he puts up a 50 this week so oh look it's a bit of a dossier pick that one isn't it um you know jumping on board bowie but yeah he's but look he hasn't done anything wrong this season has he so um lever how far away was lever did we see that because he was kind of a late out wasn't he If he came back in, it would be a bit more of a concern. But I just don't think he can be um secure it in that role for a long time. So I'm going to say no.
00:43:54
Sam
Leavers listed as a test this week.
00:43:57
Jon Harmey
Test.
00:43:59
Holmesy
Lou, like or dish dislike, Camden McIntosh, 613K, scores of 70, 88, and 100. Sam flagged it about five minutes before bounce down in round one, so kept that to yourself, Sam. But is there any interest in Camden McIntosh?
00:44:15
Lew
No, no interest here. I think um the boat's sailed. It would have been a really shrewd round one pick, but um he's not even um attending high centre bounces at the moment. So I think that's one you just let go.
00:44:28
Holmesy
Sam, like or dislike now, he's been a very good pick for owners if they started or even got on early. But is it too late to go a Nathan O'Driscoll priced at $596K, break even of $10K, has a good run coming up with the Dogs, Richmond, Melbourne and Crows and St Kilda in the next five?
00:44:41
Jon Harmey
Thank
00:44:45
Holmesy
Is it too late? Are you looking at one of these rookies now or you don't mind a play of Nathan O'Driscoll at this point?
00:44:53
Sam
Oh, yeah, look, another tough one. I mean, everything says, you know, everything we normally look for, CBAs, things like that, says no. You know, he's firmly back on the wing now. He's tearing on grounds up, which was what was the flag was when he first started. But, again, already up $155,000. A break even of $10,000, but I do think that ship has sailed because there's lots of money to be made off some of these rookies coming through.
00:45:18
Sam
But great pick. Great pick if you started him.
00:45:18
Jon Harmey
Mm-hmm.
00:45:20
Lew
hey He feels like one you get creative with and drop down to rather than one that you upgrade towards, I think.
00:45:28
Holmesy
So are you saying a failed mid-pricer? So, you know.
00:45:32
Lew
Well, yeah, you you know you might have, you know, just Jason Horne Francis staring at me right now. You might go straight down to a nod and you bank, what, 300k there and and get creative somewhere on the other end is where maybe I'd look at bringing in a nod, but I'm not sure I'd be paying 600k to bring him in.
00:45:49
Jon Harmey
It's a lot of money, 600, yeah. Mm.
00:45:51
Sam
So you, you would, we tick off something like day to node if you wanted to free up 240
00:45:51
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:45:58
Lew
Yeah, ah absolutely. um I was going day to Nevit last week. ah Nod's about 50k more, but I think I would tick that off. Yeah.
00:46:09
Holmesy
Harmi, I'll throw these two together, um both as mid-priced options, both scoring really well, but ah albeit playing different positions. So Bailey Humphrey and Ryan Marrick.
00:46:21
Holmesy
Humphrey getting the CBAs. um His time on ground's finally up as well. However, Flanders now coming back into the side, his time on ground's going to go up and and his role will increase.
00:46:33
Holmesy
So Bailey Humphrey, I want your thoughts on, but also Ryan Marich. Now, no McGovern seems this week with that injury, high kick-ins, has just toned up for the Eagles.
00:46:44
Holmesy
um Seems to be that distributor back there. Is 490k too much to pay for Ryan Marich or are you seriously interested here?
00:46:53
Jon Harmey
and Look, out of the two, I'm more interested in Marek than Humphrey because of that McGovern injury. um he takes kick-ins. His price is a little suppressed from being the sub, I think, around the first game that he played this season. So,
00:47:10
Jon Harmey
um I would be more interested Marek, 500,000 for a forward who's just gone back. Still not too sure. Humphrey I quite like, but he had two kind of mediocre scores to start, didn't he? So he had a smashing first half in the round just gone, very high scoring. But...
00:47:31
Jon Harmey
I don't think you can rely on the CBAs. Last year when he was playing forward, he put some really low scores. I looked at him um in the pre-season and I just recall looking at like 30s staffer. Admittedly, he had a ah poor season and he looks to have got fitter and he's putting in some some sort of decent stuff at the minute. But um I'm going to say dislike to both.
00:47:56
Jon Harmey
because i think that the next guy you're going to get to as a forward option, Holmesy, is the one you should be on.
00:48:01
Holmesy
Oh, here we go. ah knew it was coming and I deliberately left it for someone else.
00:48:05
Jon Harmey
from
00:48:07
Holmesy
Harmy, you got your goggles on. Sam, did you have something you wanted to say about Ryan Marrick before we let Harmy just go off about his fanboy?
00:48:13
Sam
Yeah, I did, um only because he kind of piqued my interest last round against Brisbane when he had 26 touches, but I was kind of um really disappointed to see he only had one mark.
00:48:26
Sam
And then against Fremantle, he had eight marks, I think. including a couple of nice intercept marks. I am really, really interested in him. I think he's the sort of guy we try and look for each season, you know, really big change in role.
00:48:42
Sam
um He's going to have – well, he would appear to have almost a a lock on all the kick-ins now unless Duggan floats back there or something.
00:48:45
Holmesy
Thank
00:48:51
Sam
um i am pretty keen on him, and I think he can – um outperform well outperform what he's priced at so you know I think if you've got the money to get to him from say a rook it's a nice one and he can really take you up um and be an upgrade to a premium in what three four five weeks time maybe
00:49:16
Holmesy
Yep, don't mind that at all, Sam. All right, Harmy, the floor is yours, mate. Who's this other mid-priced option that you want to speak about?
Mid-Priced Player Strategy Debate
00:49:24
Jon Harmey
ah Oh, well, you got so what's you someone who's priced under 500,000 who was on 93 points at three-quarter time, ended up on 110. So, don't know.
00:49:36
Jon Harmey
Lou, did you catch any of this game on your fishing trip?
00:49:39
Lew
no i No, this was on the weekend just being, yeah, I did. I ah caught the first 10 minutes and yeah, there was a bloke on about 37 after ah couple of minutes too. Is it the same one?
00:49:52
Jon Harmey
I think so. Holmesy, catch any of the game?
00:49:55
Holmesy
Made me feel absolutely sick knowing that I didn't have him and he wasn't a good pickup until that point. He low time on ground, sub vest, not best 23 or best 22, sorry.
00:50:08
Sam
Oh, Holmesy, just let Harmy have his moment. My goodness.
00:50:12
Holmesy
I cannot, I cannot.
00:50:12
Jon Harmey
Holmesy, look, I'm just going to correct you there.
00:50:15
Jon Harmey
Not best 23. Mate, they have dropped their captain, Jack Steele, to get this guy in the midfield.
00:50:21
Holmesy
yeah
00:50:25
Holmesy
Oh, very good. In all seriousness, can can we do it?
00:50:27
Lew
I...
00:50:29
Holmesy
I mean, he his role did not change from the round one game. Yes, he got slightly more CBAs because Steele was out, but still only the, the what, 68% time on ground.
00:50:42
Holmesy
is it Is he still a risk to put up these 50s and 60s, or do you think this is ah a career game for him and he's going to break through a little bit, Lou?
00:50:50
Lew
ah No, I tend to think that he might regress a little bit. Might be more of a 100 guy now, but no. ah I think the the stars are aligned on the weekend and the 110 well exceeded my expectations. I would have taken an 80 straight to the bank there. We know he's got a massively high floor with the tackles, but he found plenty of pill on the weekend, which was good to see, but I'm not sure if that's going to remain there, obviously. Steel's going to come back in um after a stint in the VFL.
00:51:22
Lew
And there's ah there's a couple of players to come into that side, and and the 66% tog doesn't fill me with a heap of confidence either.
00:51:22
Jon Harmey
Do we know any bets, do you? What's the go there?
00:51:30
Lew
So I think he's bought himself job security to avoid the sub-best over the next couple of weeks, but I wouldn't be trading into him. I think if you if you held him, lucky you, and you might get the pleasure of putting putting him on your field this week for him to to go that 55 again. But no, I think that one you just let be now.
00:51:53
Holmesy
I think he's one of those ones that if you've still got him, you're happy that you've got him and and you keep building, but I'm not sure he's a trading option now. You just look at what happened with Nevit.
00:52:01
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:52:03
Holmesy
um
00:52:03
Jon Harmey
Yeah, now you're right.
00:52:03
Holmesy
it can It can be flipped.
00:52:04
Sam
Yeah. Yeah.
00:52:06
Holmesy
So...
00:52:06
Lew
Can I just play devil's advocate on Ryan Marich?
00:52:06
Sam
yeah
00:52:09
Lew
Because I'm really high on the pick as well. But um if you're an opposition coach and Jeremy McGovern's just been injured, you're versing the Eagles and you're trying to score.
00:52:23
Lew
It shouldn't be too difficult anyway. But are you sort of circling the forward-turned defender in you know with 10 games experience as the guy that you're going to play through and expose?
00:52:37
Holmesy
i um I'll flip that back on you, Lou. Do you think any AFL coach other than McQualter actually knows Ryan Marrick's name?
00:52:46
Lew
ah look Look, fair enough, but i think it's I think it's a legitimate question and there was a lot of McGovern to Marich on the weekend too. So um just a flag, I think it's a nice pick though.
00:53:00
Holmesy
Yeah, tough game against GWS this week. If he has a 40 or a 50, then that cash is going to stop quick smart. So, yeah, thats
00:53:07
Lew
Bedford might go to him.
00:53:12
Holmesy
that's true.
00:53:12
Sam
He is probably is probably the tag target at the Eagles at the moment.
00:53:12
Holmesy
All right.
00:53:17
Lew
ah Certainly from a fantasy perspective.
00:53:17
Jon Harmey
Who would be? is going to get to?
00:53:19
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:53:20
Jon Harmey
Is it TK? Harley Reid?
00:53:22
Holmesy
They won't tag.
00:53:24
Holmesy
They won't tag head head.
00:53:24
Jon Harmey
Harley Reid.
00:53:24
Sam
just ah Just a on Marich and Garcia, Harmi, would you be willing to have a pod-pod side bet about who will score more over the next five weeks?
00:53:25
Holmesy
to-head
00:53:35
Jon Harmey
Five weeks. Done. Bet's on. Whatever.
00:53:37
Sam
Excellent. Excellent. we'll We'll sort out what's on the line in the chat.
00:53:42
Jon Harmey
Okay.
00:53:43
Lew
You have to trade them in in five weeks' time.
00:53:43
Holmesy
Might have to be some ton middies, Lou.
00:53:46
Lew
Yeah. What's that, mate?
00:53:47
Holmesy
Go back to our ah ton middies day.
00:53:47
Jon Harmey
done my bit.
00:53:48
Jon Harmey
I've tried.
00:53:48
Lew
Tannetties?
00:53:49
Holmesy
You'll have to get some from Adelaide.
00:53:51
Lew
Do they still sell them?
00:53:54
Holmesy
That carton of ton middies sat up in my attic for about two years, I think. They were ah were glorious when I finally cracked them open.
00:54:02
Lew
I think they're about 80 cents each.
00:54:05
Sam
Good Lord.
00:54:08
Lew
It's cheaper than Goon.
00:54:08
Holmesy
All right, boys. What we're going to do is we're going to finish with some questions. But as always, just reminding the listeners that PodPod AFL has partnered with Q Platforms. That's Q-U in 2025 to help answer all your AFL fantasy questions.
00:54:21
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:54:22
Holmesy
So if your question doesn't get answered today, if you'd like to help out the PodPod for a small fee, we'll answer that question for you with a fully personalized audio response. If we don't get to your question within 24 hours, you get your money back. And also, if you decide you want to pull the question, you also get your money back.
00:54:39
Holmesy
Head over to askmeonq.com slash podpodafl. The link is in the show description below. um if you'd like ah to have a full team review or you'd just like to ask some individual strategy questions. But first, Louis, this one's for you from Ninja Spoon.
00:54:57
Holmesy
Rage trade, Gaunt to Marshall. Don't know if I reverse it though. Is there a chance that he does this to get ahead of the curve with Max having some down games?
00:55:07
Lew
No, I think you'd probably be behind it if Max capitalises on that Sam De Koning matchup.
00:55:10
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:55:13
Lew
If Stanley comes in, it's probably still much ah not much of a concern. So ah that's probably what I want Gorn for. And then in a couple of weeks' time, he has a really nice fixture too.
00:55:23
Lew
So he comes up against, after the Bombers, which is tough, he goes Fremantle, Richmond, West Coast. So i think Gorn will repay the faith.
00:55:35
Holmesy
Yeah, I hope so, Lou. But what if he doesn't this week? I don't think he scored terribly well against Geelong last last year.
00:55:38
Lew
if he doesn't If he doesn't repay the faith this week, I think Kieran Briggs is the easiest target ever.
00:55:46
Jon Harmey
Yeah. Yeah.
00:55:48
Lew
i think it's about 135 break even at the moment. But if he puts up another 90 on the weekend, he's coming down another 50K. And that's when you can get creative perhaps and take a max down to a Briggs and find yourself with 200, next week.
00:56:04
Sam
Briggs might score 135 this week against West Coast.
00:56:09
Lew
ah
00:56:09
Jon Harmey
Mm.
00:56:09
Lew
then launch with confidence then you'll ah take a little bit less cash but that's what you want to see
00:56:12
Sam
Absolutely. Absolutely.
00:56:15
Holmesy
Sam, this one's from Waza. He says he's moved out Hollands, Perryman, Day and Sanders already and he's got all the main rooks with a team value of 20.3 mil. Way to flex. So he's got two options here.
00:56:27
Holmesy
um One of his options is the idea that Louie's doing. So the fixing a red dot and Lindsay to get in Marik and Marais to really get the cash gen going or...
00:56:38
Holmesy
Does he go SDK to Messiah and then Lindsay to Marais? So not having as much cash left over, but getting in the gun premium. What are you thinking with these two options?
00:56:48
Sam
Yeah, so I mean, I just talked about how you know pretty keen I am on Marek, but I think his SDK Nazia and Lindsay to Marea's option is a better one. That's where I'd be going.
00:57:00
Sam
Nazia looks to be a you know at top six or pretty close to, and I think SDK is presenting a lot of headaches. I think you'd sleep easier making that trade as well. um So that would be my option.
00:57:14
Holmesy
Harmi, this one's from Ben Fitzgerald. Hey, lads, carrying over some cash this week. So going Wicks down to Morais. Then for the second trade, who goes out of SDK and Sanders?
00:57:25
Holmesy
So he's looking at going Sanders, which leaves him nine hundred and ninety eight k to get a mid. He's looking at Holmes at the moment, but he's also thinking of Neil. So what's your thoughts there? First, is it SDK or Sanders? And then secondly, does he go Holmes or does he look at the value in a Lockie Neal?
00:57:40
Jon Harmey
ah He didn't give us a trading option for SDK though, did he? Doesn't look like it.
00:57:44
Holmesy
Well, that would be Holmes.
00:57:47
Jon Harmey
i'm sorry well I think I said earlier that I'm okay with holding Sanders. I think SDK is going to have to be traded at some point soon and maybe that's now. I mean, the guy just scored a 66 and was subbed out.
00:58:03
Jon Harmey
It doesn't fill you with a whole lot of confidence, does it? So if you can turn that around to get to Holmes... or or an alternative premium. I think that's probably the way I'd go myself, but I'd have to look more into it.
00:58:17
Holmesy
Can someone, because i'm a bit ah I'm an owner, so I've got a bit of bias here, but Lou, can you give us your thoughts on Max Holmes and whether you think he's legitimate trading option?
00:58:27
Lew
Yeah, I think he's a massive trade target. Geelong clearly want to move the ball quickly and Bailey Smith and and Max Holmes are the guys they want the the ball in the hands of. So they're going to look for him every time. ah I'm not sure if he's necessarily the 100 plus guy. I think maybe he's a touch below that, but knocking right on the door of top six. And yeah, he's a player, I think.
00:58:55
Sam
um Just on Max Holmes, I agree with Louis on that. I think he is a great option. I would just ah have a look at his run and identify tag targets because ah the week before, he I think he copped a tag and didn't play very well through it and only scored a 70. So just keep in mind tag matchups.
00:59:13
Lew
Yeah, that Hawthorne matchup I don't love. um Looking in the distance, I have to say, Sam, I think they'll come with a plan for Max Holmes there.
00:59:21
Sam
Yeah.
00:59:23
Holmesy
Louis, I'll stick with you here. Don't have the the name of this question, but it's a good little strategy question. So if he trades Wicks to Marais, he has 700K left in the bank for next week, or does he miss out on Marais and go Wicks to Rankin? So do you get the upgrade while you can, or do you think that the rookie is the more of a must-have in this situation?
00:59:45
Lew
What's Rankin's break even? He's on the way up too, isn't he? often
00:59:49
Holmesy
Yeah, he's priced about 88.
00:59:50
Jon Harmey
It'll be creeping up.
00:59:50
Holmesy
It's got to be up there.
00:59:51
Lew
Yeah, so it's he's got the 70 break even. He's priced it out. He looks like he might be a keeper. um I think I would take the Rankin pick here and um and hope that there's a rookie that comes out next week.
01:00:06
Lew
ah Because, yeah yeah, I think that's where I'd go.
01:00:06
Holmesy
Yep.
01:00:10
Sam
We might get um Smiley because I've been looking ahead and thinking who else might come on board.
01:00:14
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
01:00:15
Sam
So Smiley and, you know, maybe Sid Draper if he actually gets a run at it. So they're two options that you could look at.
01:00:20
Lew
Smiley's a great shout. And another one is El Hawley. If he can actually get into that 22, it might be a nice one.
01:00:27
Sam
Yeah. ah Speaking of which, best first touch in the AFL ever.
01:00:32
Sam
Holy moly.
01:00:32
Lew
Yeah, that was very impressive.
01:00:36
Holmesy
We're a fantasy podcast, Sam. None of that actual footy stuff here.
01:00:39
Sam
yeah
01:00:39
Holmesy
Thanks, mate. ah Sam, i'll I'll stick with you. This one's from Brayden Goderini, probably Dossie's burner account here. um
01:00:48
Sam
Great, man.
01:00:49
Holmesy
Are you still upgrading to value mid prices such as a Will Ashcroft type despite the slow start or is it time to focus now on getting to more of our keepers? What do you think with this type of question?
01:01:01
Sam
I think at this point in the season, we are trying to still look for value. We talked a lot about Will Ashcroft at the top there. um ah Yeah, we're not quite in upgrade season. So, you know, if you think you can find some value, then go for it. But obviously they they come with their own flags.
01:01:19
Jon Harmey
Can just say something on that one, Holmesy? I um ah think you're still looking for the, like, if you're going for premiums, you're still looking for the ones that are a bit underpriced.
01:01:31
Jon Harmey
So I'll give you few names.
01:01:32
Sam
Yeah.
01:01:33
Jon Harmey
I mean, we spoke about Briggs before in the Ruck. Yep. Jordan Ridley, he was injured early, came back with a not a very good score, but he's somebody that's dropped $100,000 in price. um Lockie Neal dropped $100,000.
01:01:46
Jon Harmey
Cogs, once he hits the midfield, his price is going down, and I feel that there's going to be a time when that'll bump, and you may be able to straight swap a rookie to him and um get some good scores. Yeah.
01:01:58
Sam
he's He's not going to hit he's not going to hit the midfielder.
01:01:59
Jon Harmey
hint
01:02:01
Sam
i He's got to be washed, hasn't he?
01:02:04
Jon Harmey
No, he didn't have much of a pre-season. I think that they're just trying to ease him in with his game time and role. He was on the wing a lot. Yeah.
01:02:14
Sam
Fair enough.
01:02:16
Holmesy
Lou, I'm going to finish with this one from Ryan Cable just because he's one of your boys. Love to hear your thoughts on Jace Burgoyne and whether this is the week to do it. Should be DPP the way he's going?
01:02:27
Holmesy
Is he someone to look at? I suppose we need to know, is he going to be close enough to being a top six defender, which we'd need him to be from that price?
01:02:35
Lew
No, I don't expect him to be. I think there's going to be significant wing time for Burgoyne this year, which is going to um which is going to affect his floor. But yeah, the last two weeks he's he's floated back there and um and last week especially pretty much played predominantly defence and looked fantastic.
01:02:52
Lew
But I just don't like the volatility there and I can't imagine he's very cheap either.
01:02:53
Jon Harmey
you
01:02:57
Lew
So I think that's one I'd just let pass. yep just let pass
01:03:02
Holmesy
He did look incredible though. And um in terms of time on ground, I think I looked somewhere in the third quarter and he'd he'd had 100% time on ground, kind of like Nick Martin. So ah could be a hindsight one. I'm not brave enough to do it, but admittedly, I i always miss out on these type of plays. Harmi, but you have something you want to say?
01:03:23
Jon Harmey
No, I just think he's a good draft player. I mean, he pops you know some good scores and not consistently at a high level, but ah I've got him in a draft and I enjoy what he's doing. ah one One I didn't mention, I've said to you guys, but one I didn't mention in that discounted premiums is Andy Brayshaw.
01:03:32
Holmesy
Thank you.
01:03:41
Jon Harmey
I mean, he had a couple of slower scores to start and he had a really good game on the weekend. And I think he's dropped about 70,000 for the year. So, ah you know, as a high-priced premium, he's somebody that I was actually looking at this week.
01:03:56
Holmesy
Beautiful. that's gonna That's going to wrap us up, lads. Before we before we wrap up and and finish, I just want to go round table, Sam, because I haven't had you guys all on for a while. Just give us a closing thought and and what you're looking forward to moving into round four and the last of these best 18 rounds before we start to get back to our best 22 and when the season really starts to kick off.
01:04:17
Sam
bit harsh saying we haven't been on for a while. i think I think me and Lou only missed one round there. um I am i'm looking forward to another Sinclair 130. Obviously, he's going to do that for the rest of the year.
01:04:33
Sam
am also looking forward to these rookies. I think we really do have a big batch here. i am keen on the on the double down and I feel like some of these guys have the potential to make us a lot of money. So,
01:04:47
Sam
Look, um if I go there, I'm just hoping these rookies score really well for us.
01:04:53
Holmesy
Lou, your closing thoughts?
01:04:55
Lew
Yep, ah this week's trades are as much about next week um as this week. It's about setting yourself up for that best 22. And um I'd be experimenting with my side and looking what that might be looking like when your bum's showing. So where are the rookies at?
01:05:11
Lew
um Where are the sore spots? Do you need to bank some cash next week to maybe get a little bit further up on a player? um It's as seriously important week to consider all this, jumping from best 18 best 22, because I think some coaches will get caught out. And i think some coaches who are maybe um ranked a little bit higher at the moment will we excel because they come in quick with ah with a solid 22 points.
01:05:38
Holmesy
Yep, I agree with that, Lewin. And we know it's this time every single year where these first-year rookies start to get red vests and green vests in management and and we lose some players. So if your bench is already starting to get a little bit thin, that's when when coaches get caught out. So absolutely need to be thinking about next week's trades as much as these ones to make sure your team comes out of this round prepared for best 22 in the following round for Gather Round Harmy. But what are your closing thoughts?
01:06:05
Jon Harmey
Well, my closing thought was ah pretty similar to that. Actually, Holmesy, if you've got red dots, clean them up now as a priority. Don't um don't sort of look to cast down other players and try and hold money over into next week. If you have red dots, they the ones that you should be moving out um to get to these rookies that we're were optimistic about.
01:06:25
Sam
Just a question for Louis um as the you know best coach on the pod at the moment. Quick pulse check. How many rookies do you think you'll have on field going into best 22 week?
01:06:38
Lew
ah Five, I think. Yeah, I think I'll have five.
01:06:42
Jon Harmey
Let's have a look.
01:06:42
Lew
And it won't be set up the way that I would like either.
01:06:43
Sam
Yeah, I think...
01:06:44
Jon Harmey
One, two, three, four, five.
01:06:46
Lew
It's probably going to be two defenders, which I'm i'm not loving, but might be a necessary route that I need to take.
01:06:50
Jon Harmey
Hmm.
01:06:55
Sam
Yeah, that that's actually interesting because I am also looking at probably having five in that first week of best 22s, and I thought that that might be a bit troubling um and I would like four, but that that's that's good to know.
01:07:07
Lew
No, I think if you can...
01:07:08
Holmesy
Yeah, we we get it, boys. You've got good teams. We get it. We can wrap up now. you know Me and Harmi are done, all right?
01:07:14
Lew
li
01:07:14
Sam
but
01:07:15
Holmesy
We get it.
01:07:16
Lew
next Next week, ah I'd be surprised if most coaches don't have Levi Ashcroft, Christian Marais versus the Saints, Sam Davidson on field as three rookies, and then yeah maybe throw a blanket over that fourth one, fourth four and five.
01:07:17
Holmesy
but
01:07:32
Sam
And Ron Nourich.
01:07:33
Holmesy
Beautiful. That's going to wrap us up, lads. Make sure you're following us on Twitter at PodPod AFL. Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your content. Will the boys be back next week?
01:07:46
Holmesy
Who knows? It probably depends on how Hugo Garcia goes this week and and how Port go, but we'll be back for another podcast.
01:07:51
Sam
and ron marriagerich
01:07:52
Holmesy
And Ryan Marich, yeah, exactly right.
01:07:53
Jon Harmey
thats my
01:07:54
Holmesy
We'll be back for another pod reviewing round four next week. Have a good week. Best 18's almost finished. And ah yeah, we'll see you soon.