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The Jayden Hunt and Tom Cole Show. PLUS: Tom Stewart is cheap, Darcy Cameron is down, and is Kozzy Pickett the best tackler in the AFL? | Round 3 AFL Fantasy #PODPOD
165 Plays2 years ago
A duo of two-time AFL Fantasy top 10 finishers (Holmesy and Harmey) are joined by Dos and Lewy to break down all the AFL Fantasy happenings from round 3 and look ahead to round 4. Grumpy Holmesy is no more after bouncing back in a big way thanks to a West Coast speedster while Dossy is also firmly Lux-bound thanks to ol King Cole in the blue and gold!
There's a heap to break down in a bunch of new segments (let us know your favs @podpodAFL on Twitter) as the lads prepare you for another epic round of AFL Fantasy!
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Keeper League members gain access to CBA analysis, state league fantasy scores, kick-in data, a comprehensive draftee analysis for your rookie research, the Breakout Tracker, advanced spreadsheets for fantasy draft season, and much more!
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PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Dos: @HKdos
Lewy: @LewyAF
Statesman: @Statesman33
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Harmey: @jonharmey
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Transcript
Introduction and Pod Squad Updates
00:00:02
Speaker
you
00:00:18
Speaker
And welcome to the Pod Pod. It's ya boy Darcy here on this Tuesday night, 4th of April, 2023. Talking all things AFL fantasy. Following an eventful. It must be said at round three. Joining me as always, I have the Pod Squad with me. We've got Homzy, Louis and Hammy. No fossil today.
00:00:40
Speaker
taking it easy on this Tuesday night. I think he's out traveling the world. He'll be back on deck next week or the week after.
Score Highlights and Rankings Discussion
00:00:48
Speaker
I can't remember, but flying as always is the fossil. But let's just get into a bit of the round that was before we head into what you should be looking at doing in round four. And let's kick it off with you, Hami. How was your weekend, mate?
00:01:03
Speaker
Oh, look, I guess a fairly mediocre and average score, which seems to be pretty common over the first few rounds. But anyway, look, a score from me, Dospi of 2000 and 96 points puts me at a ranking of 15 for 80. So climbed an enormous 5000 spots this week. So I'm on the right trajectory.
00:01:25
Speaker
Don't mind that. It's not too shabby of you there, Hami. But good to have you back again, mate, on deck for another episode. Seems to be more of a permanent fixture than many of us this year already, Hami. So very well and truly embedded in the pod squad here. Louis, you're joining us as well. And how was your weekend?
00:01:42
Speaker
Yeah not too bad mate. I finally cracked the 2000 barrier which was nice. In fact I jumped up to 2134 for the week which brought me up nearly 15,000 ranks up to 19,792 so that's good to see and also just shows that there's not a lot in it.
00:02:01
Speaker
come round three so if you have a good week you can jump right back up and if you have a poor week you'll slide back down but the dust is certainly still settling. Trending in the right direction though all of us here and I want
00:02:16
Speaker
I won't talk about the next round. I'm just going to let that sit for a moment that I might just get into my score and rank. Another just stellar week for me, 2192. Nothing to be spoken about there. We expect greatness from me. And I keep delivering. My rank now is 1423. So trending in the right direction for that Lux, as we all know, is mine for
Player Performances and Fantasy Impact
00:02:36
Speaker
2023. No surprises there. But a big surprise from our end here was Holmsey.
00:02:44
Speaker
Seems like you actually had a good wake here, mate. Yeah, first off, Dossie, before we get into that, you said that Stato was just off taking it easy, but word on the street is that now that he's back in the top thousand for the first time since 1985, he doesn't want to be on the pod anymore. He doesn't want to give that advice away. He's a bit nervous.
00:03:03
Speaker
No, we need to get the FOS back on at some point. Yeah, Dos, I did have a good week. 22.49 for myself, which was actually a round rank of 51. So it was that round that Louis said that I really needed to have. I had a really big bounce back and started the week ranked at 52K and have come into 21.187. So it just shows I had a few forced injuries in that first round and had to patch up in round two.
00:03:29
Speaker
Like Louis always preaches, it's a trading game and my trades that I pulled this week were a big part of getting me back into the game. So quite happy with how it stands at the moment now. All right, guys, I think this needs to happen. Round of applause for Holmes E. He's back. Come on, guys. Jordan here. Holmesy. Army. Louis.
00:03:50
Speaker
That is the flattest gag I've ever seen you do, boss. And there's been some flat ones, mate. As soon as I saw that going badly, I just wanted to sit back and watch it.
00:04:01
Speaker
No, you deserve it, mate. Back on the, back on the, uh, highest scoring trend, 2249. That's a monster score, mate. And let's talk about who got you there, first of all, with our Lux. Who was your Lux of the Week, Holmesy? How can I go past Will Day, mate? Uh, that was, I ended up trading Dom Sheed to Will Day as a bit of a,
00:04:26
Speaker
getting off a failed mid-pricer and getting onto a mid-pricer that's trending in the right direction and you know 128 was absolutely everything I could have asked for and more and he looked absolutely incredible getting those marks on the outside but tackling like an absolute bull on the inside as well so definitely cashed in against North Melbourne and that was the positive pick that I needed to start to go back up.
00:04:47
Speaker
Was it bittersweet Kyle? Because me like you has been pretty cold on Will Day during the pre-season and even once the seasons began and then drops that 128. I know as a non-owner I was going on mate can I get stuffed?
00:05:02
Speaker
Oh mate, it wasn't, to be honest, I wasn't a believer in the pre-season because I just didn't think that role was going to stick and 20% CBAs in round one, I thought it might have been a bit of false economy, but as soon as I saw him play against Sydney, a tough matchup, 60% CBAs and getting to that 90 odd score, it just seems that is absolutely real. So we love a player out of contract and he looks to be doing everything right at the moment, Hami.
00:05:27
Speaker
It was pretty hard for me to watch Louis given that I have been pretty keen on Will Day and still haven't been able to get him in and was going to get him in apart from the Charlie Constable issue that we all had. So yeah, it was hard for me to take and it was really like the teams that had the Will Day and Sean Darcy really got a bump this week as opposed to the teams like me that had LDU and played in Monfield for a zero because didn't see it was laid out.
00:05:54
Speaker
The ones you miss, it feels like they hurt more than the ones who actually, the elation that you get from ones that you nail. From what you guys have seen, Homzy, from what you've seen of Will Day this year, he's just getting better and better. He hasn't gone under a 90 yet. Like, I mean, is what we're seeing from Will Day just completely like must have, you know, I know no one's a must have, but 95 to 100, is this sustainable for him? He looks fantastic in the new role and he's just coming into his own.
00:06:24
Speaker
Yeah, Doss, he's still priced under 80, I think, so priced at 77, averaging 104. You wouldn't think he's gonna sustain that for the rest of the year, but you'd still think he's got value at that price point. And if you are looking to get up from a constable this week because you held him, he's still presenting value, and that role is definitely real.
Listener League and Content Creators Cup Updates
00:06:42
Speaker
So we'd definitely tick off any coach that doesn't have will day at the moment, going there to fix our defensive lines. All right, Harmony, I might throw to you, mate, for your locks of the week.
00:06:55
Speaker
My Lux of the Week.
00:06:58
Speaker
Came to Sunday. I still had Constable in my backline. I'd saved a trade just to see what was happening with some loops and that sort of thing. And I needed a saviour. And one came through for me. Jaden Hunt traded him in for that West Coast game. And he brought it home with an 84 for me. So I was pretty happy with that. Decent cash rise as well. And looks like he may sit there for a few weeks for me. Armie, welcome to Jaden Hunt Island mate. It's just me and you.
00:07:28
Speaker
and let's enjoy it.
00:07:32
Speaker
Yes, we were talking pre-show and we might be renaming this segment from Lux or Sucks to Hunt or Cole. So, Tommy Cole for me gets my Lux of the Week 78 points. What an elite pick for the year. Tommy C just comes back, just spitting in the face of the doubters, Holmsey, and delivering a 78 for his proud owner over here. Maybe his only owner.
00:08:00
Speaker
in the fantasy community, but he's delivering the goods. All the eagles were going down, but Hunt and Cole just delivered down in that back line. What a sight to see, wouldn't you guys say? One point. Which one's the suck's pick, Doki? Which one's the suck's pick? Is it Hunt or Cole? Are we just talking about Lux picks from now on?
00:08:19
Speaker
Yeah, well, that's right. It might have to be both stern keeper options at the moment. There's no doubt about that. All right. Let's, let's round out the pick though. Um, Holmes. Yeah, I might throw to you. And by the way, I'd say Josh Kelly as well as a great, um, Lux pick for me, held him for the week and delivered and looks like a, you know, really delivering on that potential top eight, uh, midfielder, you know, pending some attention than he might cop in the future weeks. But Holmes, who was your Lux pick? Uh, sucks pick.
00:08:49
Speaker
My Sucks pick, Dossie, sorry about that, is Liam Stocker. So I took the punt. I traded Constable up to Stocker. And I didn't hate the pick, to be honest. He was more of playing the breakeven game. He only scored a 55, but he was injured. 67% time on ground, sat on the pine for large portions of the game. So can't be too upset with that. Made me 30k.
00:09:14
Speaker
fingers crossed there's no bullets this week and I can jump off and I'm happy with that 30k made so not the worst but it definitely had the potential to go really bad being on 16 at halftime. Did you say sorry he's out as well potentially this week? Just Mitch Cleary reporting on Channel 7 tonight that he was only walking laps at training and that kind of lines up with what was seen on the on the weekend with him looking pretty proppy so
00:09:40
Speaker
Interesting pick. Upsetting for owners that went there, but keep an eye on the news this week. Obviously, make relevant changes as news comes to hand, as our friend Pete always says. Necessary adjustments. Necessary adjustments as news comes to hand. Oh, sorry. That's a trademark from Pete there. We love you, Pete. Louis, I think I missed you for your lucks as well. Give us your lucks and sucks. Why don't you?
00:10:03
Speaker
Yeah, thanks Doki. Sicily was probably my life's pick mate. 132, he's backing it up and it's just been a good starting pick for me. He's really just, he's hardly even rolling it over for those scores. So I think we will see even a bit more ceiling by that, but yeah, pretty happy with that one. Beautiful. And your socks.
00:10:26
Speaker
My sucks is Connor McKenna on day two. So I traded him in on the Thursday night as a constable trade out and he only gave me the 59. So with the West Coast, with the Western Bulldogs matchup there, I was sort of hoping for an 85-90, a little bit softer there, but it wasn't to be.
00:10:48
Speaker
Nevertheless, he has that low break, even still has it, so hopefully we can ride him up for a few extra K over the next couple of weeks, but yeah, wanted that to be a little bit higher. Hami sucks. I'll tell you who does suck, and that is Finn Callahan in my fantasy team at the moment. He was the one that I wanted to trade to Will Day via DPP, and yeah, what a regret. That is 48 points he gave me.
00:11:17
Speaker
He was looking hot early, too. He actually racked up a few possessions early in the game. I was watching on and I was like, oh, geez, these guys have got a good pick here going forward. But yeah, that's a shame for you, mate, and obviously training out this week. But we'll get to, well, potentially training out this week. We'll get to some of that stuff later on in the
Injuries and Trade Options for Fantasy Coaches
00:11:35
Speaker
show. I'll just go through quickly my sucks here. And I'm just going to go, I'm going to potentially bring back a theory of ours that we had a couple of years ago now on the pod pod. Maybe it was last year as well.
00:11:47
Speaker
Guys, is the Dossy Curse back again?
00:12:04
Speaker
I just want to go through the weekend. The LDU laid out. He was featured in the song. Is this finally coming to the Dossy Curse as the Dossy Curse arrived? The secondary part of that is I was a non-owner of the Warpedo.
00:12:20
Speaker
And unfortunately, I've followed the crowd here coming up against North Melbourne. I see you smirking, Louis. I don't know about being happy about my failures here, but I joined in the crowd, finally bought Warpedo after not believing him all pre-season. Is the Dossi curse back into existence? And is it something that we have to look out for in my potential trades going forward, Hami? Absolutely. Yeah. So who are you trading in this week so I can avoid him, Dosspi?
00:12:49
Speaker
We'll have to get on to that later in the show. There's a couple of options. Look, I don't think it's all, it's not all tears for Warple owners. I mean, yeah, you picked him as a mid price. So there was always a bit of a risk in the role, but I think he's still going to be okay. It's not a jump ship, like hit the button, he's completely stuffed. So guess we'll, you can try it in, but it's not the end of the world.
00:13:13
Speaker
All right, well, let's move on to just want to do a quick little recap of some of the legs room. We haven't really mentioned it yet. The listener league kicked off this week. Now, we haven't got a proper full score recap. We're going to be working on that in the weeks to come. We need an insider in there to publish some of these scores and see who's tracking getting those wins. But I have heard
00:13:34
Speaker
from my sources that Team Doss, Maddie Sterling had a massive win over one of Stado's plebs. Don't even know which coach it was. Clearly a useless coach though, but Maddie Sterling repping Team Doss with pure aplomb. However,
00:13:50
Speaker
I've heard also that Liam, you might've heard him before from the free kick pod on the AFLW season when that's coming around. Make sure you tune into them. But Liam, I need more from you, mate. He's gone down. He's gone down in his matchup and I'm gonna need some serious lift from you. We don't accept losses at team DOS. As you can see, I'm lifting up my bargain, showing how the team needs to perform. We need more from Liam there. Yeah, Holmsey, what do you got to say, mate?
00:14:17
Speaker
Just quietly mate, Zach who's representing team homsey put up a massive 2262 this week and was ranked 21 for the round so great kickoff there for team homsey
00:14:30
Speaker
Holmes, he's also inspiring his troops. So that's good to say that the listener league is often running. We'll make sure we update that in the weeks to come. Um, also share that to the content creators cup. You've probably heard that going around a few of the podcasts, uh, this year, we are also involved in that. So happy to announce that I had a monstrous win over Bales, um, who's helping run that league. So unfortunately for Bales, you know, um, he's becoming known as Bales, the boy, but we'll get through that. Hopefully you guys can also
00:15:01
Speaker
Notch one of those over him in the coming weeks, but the pod pod representing strongly early. It must be said in that leg, but shout out to those guys. Um, Timmy guest as well running that. So we'll keep an eye on that in the weeks to come. And also the pod pod challenge leaderboard, which Stado will be taking care of.
00:15:20
Speaker
in the weeks to come. So we'll be keeping track of those as the season goes on, but hot topics for now. And as we always look forward to recapping what the hottest topics of the round are, and I'm going to lead it off with the LDU late out scramble. Did it hit anyone here? And what do coaches do? Obviously now most have probably held, I think a bunch traded out, but did it hit anyone here?
00:15:49
Speaker
Well, it's hit me, Dospy. Yep, I was out on Saturday doing some kids stuff and I always thought I'd check the news to see what's happening in the lead up to the game because it was in Launcest and I didn't get to the game. But anyway, so I checked about 15 minutes before the game. No, all sweet. Let it roll. Then I checked about 10 minutes into the game, finding out the LDU was on field for me. So kind of did.
00:16:16
Speaker
stuff my plans around a loop there and yeah I ended up taking Holland's 56 I think it was from memory so probably a little bit under is what I was hoping for from LDU
00:16:29
Speaker
Yeah, brutal. I think it was what, like, people were saying it was about 30 seconds before tip-off. I was actually watching my local footy, injured myself, but was watching on the sidelines. Could have traded. Had I known. Didn't check the group chats in time. In fact, I believe the Pod Pod group chat was pretty much just trying to keep that on the down low from me and Harmony to try and let us know that that was happening.
00:16:51
Speaker
Thanks for that guys. We both didn't manage to trade out but somehow survived the round regardless I I heard a few sob stories though of people trading into LDU this week So there was plenty of coaches that did do it Including a friend of mine Grant bad luck mate, but there was lots of coaches that were in the same boat I think the numbers were out there. It was like 5,000 or something people that actually brought LDU in and
00:17:14
Speaker
It's all right, though. Look, he's going to hopefully be back. It was only a bit of calf time. We really just hope that he's in this
Rookie Updates and Trading Strategies
00:17:21
Speaker
week. Was it like a minute before the game, was it? I think it was. I heard like 30 seconds. Like he'd done the warm up. A bit longer than that, Dos. Coach just had about five minutes, I think. So not long. Oh, thanks, Holmes. So you knew about this. No, I didn't. It's a tall poppy syndrome. I didn't hear it that early. I only just started hearing it once the game started as well.
00:17:46
Speaker
Another hot topic, Constable dropped, so we didn't know that until later on in the round. A lot of us had to make our trades before we knew, but plenty of coaches still held on just for the week. We've had 8,000 people trade him out already this round, but what are some options for those that held? Louis, do you want to perhaps fill in the blanks here? I mean, I know there's a couple
00:18:10
Speaker
couple of West Coast players in a previous segment that may be options here? Yeah, well, coaches don't have a lot of money at the moment. We're still very much in generating cash mode and still haven't entered that sort of upgrade cycle yet. So with a Charlie Constable, if you're not going sideways to someone that maybe you like, like I went O'Connor McKenna with the low break even last week.
00:18:35
Speaker
then I think you're either going right down finding some cash and putting it on top of somebody else's head or you're doing the opposite because he is at that was a 418k price tag that Hami mentioned earlier so there is a bit of cash on his head it's not doomsday snow in fact it might even be
00:18:53
Speaker
might even be a little bit of a blessing in disguise because I'm not sure he's going to re-enter that team. So cut your losses, use that 218k or whatever, how much you want to use to your advantage and springboard off of it because it's not bad timing right now. It's actually probably the best time that it could have been.
00:19:14
Speaker
And another hot topic, going down like flies first, their number one ruck the other week going down. Now their backup ruck, Darcy Cameron, goes down unfortunately for owners. So Mason Cox and Darcy Cameron both down. That's really unlucky. He looked like he was going to be a really good option, especially with Cox obviously down. He took that number one man to, well, he was already the number one, but you know what I mean, taking that full-time ruck spot again.
00:19:40
Speaker
He's down to 719k now. It seems like he's going to be out for a very extended period of time. You've got to trade, but what are the options here, Holmsey for coaches? It's looking like Set and Forget this year potentially was the strategy, but is that where you'd go now?
00:19:58
Speaker
Yeah, Darcy, look, I think a lot of the coaches that had Darcy Cameron are the ones that potentially started at Cherry. I know there were some coaches that went Cherry to Gorn and then to Darcy Cameron just to avoid English. And if that's taught us anything, I think it's that you just need to bite the bullet now as hard as it is and to go up to English just to match the rest of the comp and then hope that the rest of the uniques in your team can get you up a little bit up the ranks.
00:20:26
Speaker
Yeah, look, one option that is a genuine option if you do just want to keep riding that roller coaster is going across to Brody Grundy. I don't have his price tag on me at the moment. I think it's going to be low 800, so you're probably going to need to find 100, 120K to get there. And we know that Melbourne have an unbelievable run coming up highlighted by the West Coast matchup this week where Darcy just put up a 130 for fun. So that could be a great unique option.
00:20:51
Speaker
But just keep in mind, you've already probably burnt two or three trades in the rock department, so it's probably the safer play to go straight to English and just bank that.
AFL Trends and Trading Insights
00:21:00
Speaker
Yeah. Priced at 813, so he's priced at like a 93 average. So look, he's going to go right above that for the next few weeks, but then you're still going to use another trade down the track, I expect, when Gorn comes in. So I don't know. It's not a very long term play, is it, that one?
00:21:17
Speaker
Seems like it's not, but I also will say the immediate sugar hit that Holmsey highlighted. I don't see Grundy going under 120 against West Coast this week. Like he said, Darcy just took the absolute P, one double five out there on the weekend against Bailey Williams. Although Bailey fought hard in the second half, it must be said. But yeah, it's a nice option anyway. But you guys also harm me on deck on saying just go up to the big dog.
00:21:45
Speaker
If you can. Yeah, that's right. It depends what it takes to get there, but I started with English and Marshall. It's one of the few sort of good calls that I made earlier, I think. Yeah. Well, I just want to go through quickly. I guess this probably brings, we're going to get into our observations and round table in a second, which I might touch on a couple of these rookies that are kind of
00:22:09
Speaker
not maybe expensive enough for us to really do much with yet, but I just want to touch on him anyway. So Luke peddler, he's got a suspension. He's accepted a one match band. So you're not going to be able to play him this week as well. And then I believe you said before the show, uh, homesy, the Campbell chess is looking at some time on the sideline as well.
00:22:29
Speaker
Yeah it was reported today he's got a bit of a knee issue and he's looking at 4-6 weeks so maybe not someone you have to jump off this week it's probably going to be quite a handy loop at D6 considering Darcy Wilmot has a tough matchup against Collingwood on Thursday night so that's a pretty good easy loop there to try and get a score at D6 but
00:22:49
Speaker
yeah four to six weeks that's a long time for him not to be making any cash so it's either this week or next week and then we're in upgrade season and you don't really have the ability to move these guys on so it could be a good play to to get that cash gen going at d8 where most other coaches won't harm you
00:23:05
Speaker
You also need to be able to get a decent rookie in and in the defensive line, that's not very easy. If we get Faye from the GWS, you might sort of give him a week. Do whatever trades, you don't let it stuff your trades this week, but then if he does debut and gets a score, then you can have a look at it. But it's sort of a hard price point, isn't it? He hasn't really made that much money, so yeah, it's a bit of a difficult one that you don't sort of just want to be swapping them for the sake of chasing
00:23:34
Speaker
20 grand. Yeah, I guess that was going to be my discussion point in the observations and round table. But just quickly, Louis, obviously with Peddler having just the one week suspension, he's looked really good in that Adelaide side. You're going to hold him because he's got a negative break even still. Yeah, absolutely. Let's get into a growing favourite of mine, our round table discussion.
00:24:05
Speaker
So my discussion, we're going to just do a quick round table. If anyone's got anything to add, go ahead. But with those rookies, it makes the discussion easier now that chess is actually confirmed out. But I was just going to say with guys that haven't made a lot of coin, maybe you can throw a cow in this mix that's still got a pretty low break even, but isn't really making that much cash. If you are in a luxury position where
00:24:29
Speaker
you know, you can trade, you've got not a whole heap of trades. Is trading these guys at this point of the season an option or is this kind of just wasting those trades? Because I know Homsey, for instance, you back in your glorious runner up year, you jumped off like, you know, guys, I remember the Tom Phillips, the famous Tom Phillips, you jumped off early, like you're jumping off these mid prices. And I'm guessing you probably left these non-playing rookies maybe for a few more weeks before trying to fix them up.
00:24:58
Speaker
If this doesn't highlight it, I don't know what will. But some coaches this week did little sideways trades with their rookies and brought in a Sampson Ryan or an Artie Jones for an 18 and a 13. So you don't gain anything unless they are the must-have rookie. And even like a Jacob van Ruyen, although he scored well this week, there's nothing to say that he won't come out with a 20 or 30 next week. Although he is playing the Eagles, it's just what these rookies do at times. So you've got to be really certain on the rookie that you jump to.
00:25:28
Speaker
Yeah, job security is definitely a part of it too, isn't it? So I'll tell you one that I have been, so one I've been tempted to trade out is Phillipo because he probably doesn't have that much more cash to make looking at the scores and the average that he's put up. So if you could go him down to Van Roon and you think that he's going to have a good month, then that's one that I'd consider dossy.
00:25:54
Speaker
Yeah, you can have a good reason to trade them. And I mean, I think that Filippo is going to be playing for most of the year. So I might keep him as a safety net anyway. Alright, Louie, do you have something for the roundtable here?
00:26:08
Speaker
Look, I was just going to see if you guys are seeing the dust starting to settle now. So, you know, we had two rounds of football. There's a lot happening, certainly in that first round. And then the second round, you sort of try to pick out what's starting to trend. And now we've had three rounds of football. And some of that dust is starting to settle. I just wanted to see
00:26:29
Speaker
How many more rounds until we think we can actually really start sort of digesting the data that we're seeing, knowing that these first two, three rounds are a little bit up in the air?
00:26:43
Speaker
Well, what's really noticeable for me, Louis, now that we are three rounds in, is that there's very few teams in the competition that are running really tight midfield mixes. A lot of the teams are really resorting to having a lot of these mid-forward players that are dynamic. Think Adelaide, you know, Rankin and Rochelle, Melbourne are keen to throw, pick it through there and, you know, even James Jordan and Tom Sparrow through there. There's a lot of clubs now that are looking to play that Geelong mentality. So,
00:27:12
Speaker
for those type of teams it is quite risky to trade into those midfield players but at the same time someone like a GWS are still running the tightest midfield mix they have in years so someone like a Josh Kelly absolutely right for the picking because we just know he's going to be in there 75% of the time whereas
00:27:28
Speaker
You know, someone like me that has a Jack McRae, I'm not looking to jump off him at the moment because I'm looking to upgrade my team soon. But, you know, you got to be worried about that 40 percent midfield mix rotation. So those are the things that I'm seeing at the moment. Would you agree there, honey?
00:27:44
Speaker
Oh, yeah. Yeah, I'd agree with that. And I liked the Josh Kelly example because that's the thing about GWS. We always felt like they were going to have a pretty tight group with Cogs and Green and Kelly and then Perriman going down has just kind of helped it again. So.
00:27:59
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, if you're looking for a reason to trade those guys in, that's a pretty good one. I mean, something else I was going to say, Louis, you're seeing some of these teams, I think the pressure is going to start to mount. So I don't really know how that's going to play out like Geelong and Port Adelaide. I mean, they haven't started well, have they? Brisbane Lions, Brisbane Lions scoring has been quite down. Lockie Neal has just cracked 100 on the weekend, but his possessions and stuff have been quite down.
00:28:24
Speaker
Literally, it was going to be the next point I bring up. There's three or four teams that are already up against it who are going to try different things. And then to add on to that point, I was just going to mention we've got what was it, seven brand new head coaches this year. So there's a lot of different game styles that we're not used to all floating around at once. And some are going to work against certain teams. Some aren't. Some aren't. And I'm just finding it a little bit hard to pick the right matchups this early on in the season because of that, I feel.
00:28:54
Speaker
And Louie, I'd even extend that just to the, the teams that are doing trial and error with the teams quite down the bottom. Like they don't have to be under pressure when they're losing games, like, you know, a Hawthorne or a North they're under no pressure to win right now, but there's every chance that they could throw experiments. Like we just saw one on the weekend with Hawthorne and Walpole kind of getting that less midfield mix for a couple of weeks in a row after being the, the number one guy in that first week. So I probably just throw that.
00:29:22
Speaker
Yeah, to extend that to a few of the struggling teams that aren't expected to win too. Do you think that the better teams are the ones experimenting right now? Oh, I'm getting that vibe. There's a lot of good players, a lot of good sides that are trying different things. Whereas, you know, your North and your Hawthorns and your Saint Kielders, your Essendons, they're very structured. They're very well-drilled. They're clearly teams that have got
00:29:45
Speaker
um new coaches that are trying to instill their values and game style into them so it doesn't feel like there is as much chop change there because they're learning they need to find out or figure out how to play this game style homsi
00:29:59
Speaker
Yeah, I would just extend on that. So if we look at Rory Laird last year where Adelaide were just in, you know, they were rebuilding and they didn't really
Player Roles and Fantasy Decisions
00:30:05
Speaker
have a choice. So Rory Laird was, he had no choice but to be in that midfield. Whenever he was in the side, whenever he was on the ground, he was 80% CBAs, just a full-time on-baller.
00:30:15
Speaker
And that kind of just, you know, someone like an LDU, he is no danger of not being just the absolute main guy in that midfield for North Melbourne because they just don't have a choice. They're not going to muck around with 60% rotations here and have them experimenting because they will get belted. So someone like an LDU I think is still under priced and could be a fantastic pick for players trying to bring him in this week because I just, yeah, the role there for him is absolutely real.
00:30:44
Speaker
Yeah, it's a great point. Do we want to round this out, this round table out? I think, Hami, you've got something to share as well.
00:30:51
Speaker
I was really just going to ask your opinion because for the first two weeks trades that we have had, they're really correction trades. Okay. So we're trying to just correct and bring in those rookies or the mid prices that we may have missed. None of the rookies have made enough money to trade them out and be worthwhile. But we're now in this, this week and next week, things start to change where we are
00:31:19
Speaker
are going to be able to downgrade some rookies and use a bit of money and look for an upgrade on the other end. But I guess this was more of a question to you guys because something that I have been toying with my trades this week is if I'm still going to go to sideways trades or if I'm going to look to go one down, one up. So we spoke about JVR from Melbourne as a fairly decent, I suppose, rookie option. So I could probably go like a Finn Callahan
00:31:49
Speaker
down and a Whirlpool up to a player priced about $850 or I could go Callahan down and someone like Filippo up to somebody in like the $550 bracket like a Cosi Pickett. So I guess your thoughts on that or I could go a sideways one and trade Hayden Young to Stewart and then Whirlpool to somebody in that mid-price bracket again.
00:32:14
Speaker
So your thoughts on that? Like, do you think we're a bit premature still to be trying to go one down, one up and get somebody half decent into our sides?
00:32:22
Speaker
I think it really depends on your structure, Hami. I think it's really important at this time of year that you are maintaining the structure that you have. So if you're looking at getting rid of two mid price options to get a rookie that's looking like maybe a must have, not a must have, but a positive rookie and you're getting up to a discounted premium like Tom Stewart, I think that's definitely a move that needs to be considered or highly considered.
00:32:47
Speaker
What I don't like at this time of year, and it kind of backs onto my round table point that I was going to bring in, is wasting your upgrade money on getting up to an Uber premium like Clayton Oliver. So no one is saying that Clayton Oliver isn't an unbelievable footballer in the form of his life. He's averaging 128. He has unbelievable fixture coming up, highlighted by the Eagles this week. But if you're wasting 150, 200K going from
00:33:14
Speaker
You know, an underperforming premium, that's 200K that you're not able to use next week or the week after when astute coaches are then upgrading to get a rookie off your field. So you've got to be really confident that, you know, a Clary Oliver priced at 120 is just going to continue doing what he's doing. And he might do that.
00:33:31
Speaker
But I think you're going to hamstring your side a little bit if you're using that valuable upgrade money just to fix a premium. Because we saw on the weekend Jack McRae, everyone was looking to get off and admittedly they were looking to play the breakeven game with a setter field. But he comes out with a 1-11 and our premiums are premiums for a reason. And more often than not, they are going to turn it around. And if you trade a, let's just use a Baz Smith, for example, you trade a Baz Smith up to Clary Oliver and then Bevo does what Bevo does. And then Baz Smith is back in the midfield next week and he goes 100.
00:34:01
Speaker
That's yeah, that's you just wasted a trade to get up to it. Oliver, who might go 120, but you've used a lot of coin that could be getting a rookie off the ground that's going to score 50 in weeks to come.
00:34:13
Speaker
It's probably a fair point, and that's kind of where I'm getting to. You still want to be chasing, like increasing your team value and chasing players with some upside. So this is where I still think that trading in Will Day would be okay, because he's still making money. That's why I didn't feel bad about bringing in Jaden Hunt, because I knew I was going to get guaranteed cash increase from him. That's why I'm okay with Cosi Pickett. He's got a 120 in his average for a while now, so he's going to be making money as well. So yeah, you're right. I mean, this is probably why I'm not quite
00:34:42
Speaker
Well, I can't I don't have enough to chase an uber premium anyway, but that's what Caleb's are wrong. May have five points, maybe 10 at most, but I'm probably going to try and opt for somebody that's got a greater points game than that. Hami, if you did the upgrade this week, what would you do next week? Looking into your crystal ball, mate, would it would it be an upgrade or?
00:35:07
Speaker
Depends what rookies come through, but if you get a good rookie, you may still be able to go a downgrade and a bit of an upgrade somewhere on field. Yeah, so I'm in the camp where I take the upgrade, I bank the points and hope that there's no carnage and I'm ahead just because it does come and you can quickly find yourself behind the pack because of that.
00:35:29
Speaker
And knowing that next week you can still fix up a mid price or jump on a rookie because you don't have the cash to upgrade anyway. So I sort of lean into that camp where if you've got the cash, take the points and hope that there's no carnage at all and you're ahead. And if there is carnage, well, you've already banked that move there and you can react to that one.
00:35:52
Speaker
Yeah, look, Louie, that's a great point you make. And I think it's probably pretty smart that you make the upgrade when you can, knowing that when we do try to upgrade next week, we are just downgrading bench rookies because we don't really have any rookies that we can be confident coming on field. So it's pretty hard to get up to someone decent next week. So, yeah, great point.
00:36:13
Speaker
All right, boys, I love that. That's our roundtable discussion. We do need to figure out a segment name for that, folks, but I don't know. Let us know if you like that. That's literally just us shooting the shit, really talking about some of our plans and some of the stuff that we're thinking about this week. I think it's probably more of an insight into what we'd
00:36:29
Speaker
be talking about after the show stops recording so we just wanted to sort of keep some of that discussion actually in the show because usually we hit stop on the record then we talk about our you know our plans for the week or certain things like that and you miss out on gold so we wanted to ensure that was getting across to our listeners. We're moving on to our next segment though and it's something to do with CBA trends that I just wanted to bring into the show.
00:36:51
Speaker
We'll see if it makes it week to week, but I think at this time of year, it's pretty important to keep a track of these. And these ones are brought to you by the Keeper League Pod. So remember, as always, the Keeper League Pod does sponsor the show. Head over to keeperlegpod.com.au for all your resources for fantasy and single season draft in your keeper leagues, obviously.
00:37:11
Speaker
And then your AFL fantasy classic team, there's heaps of stuff there, including the CBA trends that we're about to go through, kicking trends, draft a fantasy analysis, scoring trends against teams. And also now that all the state leagues are up and about, you've also got those to look forward to. So use the code pod pod when you sign up for 20% off.
Rookie Options and Trade Centers
00:37:31
Speaker
I think memberships are as little as like 30 or 30, 20, $30 a year, something like that. I'll have a proper look next time.
00:37:38
Speaker
included in the promo, but use the code podpot at signup for 20% off. Anyway, this segment is called I Diddle Diddle. Straight through the I Diddle Diddle. I Diddle Diddle. Who's spending time in the middle? Let's go through who's got the most notable CBA changes for the round. Looking at Jordan Dawson with a
00:38:00
Speaker
plus 59% centre bounce differential, Holmsey, he's gone into the guts for the showdown, only scored the 81, somehow won the medal, I think there was a few maybe more deserving recipients, but did his job in there and could you see him actually, despite the low score here, is this a good thing for Dawson moving into the guts if he stays there?
00:38:22
Speaker
Yeah, Dossie, this one's actually quite a hard one to get a read on because traditionally, as fantasy coaches, we love to see our players going into the midfield. It generally correlates with a bump in scoring, but with Jordan Dawson, I'm not too sure. I think we need a little bit more data to have a look at how his role's going to be inside that midfield. And we've seen Rory Laird have a bit of a lackluster start. Barry has been nowhere to be seen in that midfield. And we've seen the rankings in the Rochelle's really research in there and be good options.
00:38:51
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not too sure. If I'm a Jordan Dawson owner, I'm definitely not jumping off, but until I see how it really plays out over the next couple of rounds, he's not someone I'd be looking to bring in just yet either.
00:39:04
Speaker
Another player, 55% CBA differential, getting a truckload of CBAs and scoring 106 fantasy points is a huge point of difference in himself, only 0.46% ownership. I'm talking about James Ash from Fremantle, dropping Will Brody and injecting some James Ash into the guts, 27 years old. Like I said, 106 points last round, Louis, I actually noticed,
00:39:31
Speaker
A friend of mine who's been pretty good coach over the years, lots of finishes up high that's considering an age move with Brody being dropped. What do you think of James Ash? What were the CBA percentages for him, mate?
00:39:44
Speaker
so his percentages total he attended let's have a look here 75 percent of okay so he's still part of that tight midfield group that frio like to run see mate i'd be constantly worried that brody's gonna come back into that side and if he does well we know that that's gonna drop by 75 and brody's probably gonna
00:40:08
Speaker
get straight back into that midfield. So that's probably a reason why I wouldn't be looking at that. But in draft, you could probably take a run at it and be a good pick.
00:40:20
Speaker
Did you watch the game, Dossie? I'm assuming he played as a defensive mid in that lineup, did he? Because he's with Brayshore and Sorong. I suppose Sorong sometimes has an accountable role, but I'm assuming he's going in there as the defensive mid in that group, is he? It's tough, Hami, because there was no one that they needed to defend for West Coast. But yeah, you'd assume that the other two are the ball winners. But I mean, Andrew Brayshore himself had a pretty quiet one. So you'd expect if he actually
00:40:45
Speaker
performs like he usually does and has a big ton himself, I'd imagine that there's less pill on offer for a James Aiche because, you know, Brescher only scored the 90, Sarong obviously had it on a string, but yeah, it's a tough one. His price fairly cheaply though, so I thought it was a worthy flag, you know, 730K coming into his prime at 27 years old. Let's just monitor that one though, it would be risky to jump straight on.
00:41:09
Speaker
A player that's got a bulk of CBAs though and replacing Jack Steele is Seb Ross who we kind of speculated may take that role. 89% of center bounces up 44% from the previous round. Holmesy 117 points. Steele still out for a few weeks. Is this just a temporary thing though and don't jump on board?
00:41:30
Speaker
Yeah, it's definitely temporary dose. I think it, like Louis just painted the picture before, I think he's a great draft option, but his teammate Brad Crouch, I think could be an absolute fantastic pot option for a genuine top eight mid that his role won't change when steel comes back. So you could get a potential sugar hit for the next four weeks until steel comes back and it could be a very good option for the rest of the season too.
00:41:55
Speaker
All right, I'm just going to mention a few that sort of dropped off. On the other side, Caleb Daniel after that innovative game from Bevo on the weekend ended up being the loser there, only losing 54% of his center bounces, basically just going back to his former role.
00:42:12
Speaker
We also saw a drop off from Baz Lenka, Bailey Smith. I think you guys mentioned him earlier. You know, he's now possibly in the frame for forward status because he's just not getting that midfield time. And we just saw slight drop offs from guys like Zach Merritt, Will Setterfield, which probably illustrates that game to game, these trends do chop and change. So it's just worth keeping an eye on, on Keep League Pod. And that was the eye diddle diddle. We're just going to quickly get into a new segment again. And we'd love your feedback for this one. We've got in
00:42:42
Speaker
Tommy our boy Tom Wyman who's been doing a bit of work over on the key play pod He's had a look at the state league scores for the weekend and some potential rookie options on the horizon This is Tommy's twos
00:43:05
Speaker
G'day guys, welcome to Tommy's Twos, where we're going to take a look at some of the top performing state league players from across the weekend, in particular those who might be in line to make their AFL debuts in the coming weeks. And one that fits that mould perfectly is Carlton's Alex Tincotta, mature aged draft pick, gathered 34 disposals in the loss to GWS, playing across half-back. Could he replace Lachie Cowan in the senior side in a couple of weeks, potentially?
00:43:32
Speaker
For Essendon, rookie Paddy Voss kicked four goals and we know that Peter Wright is out with injury so bombers might be looking for a replacement in that regard up forward. Rhett Montgomery down backwards good with 21 disposals and 12 marks. For Gold Coast, Bailey Humphrey, the first round draft pick from last year, hit the goal and had 19 touches and 5 clearances. Expect him to make his way into the side soon.
00:43:57
Speaker
An arguably the standout performer from across the weekend in the state leagues was Josh Fay from GWS. He had 40 touches and 10 marks and really showed a really good fantasy capacity in the win against the Blues. So it'll be a tough team to break into, particularly because the GWS half back line is pretty strong, but it could push up into a midfield role potentially.
00:44:24
Speaker
Manny Jefferson kicked four goals. He's a key forward from Melbourne, drafted in the first round last year. And George Wardlaw, a lot of bias will be on him. Obviously a prize pick from North Melbourne last year. Had 23 touches, six clearance to six tackles. It won't be long before we see him in the senior side. And another one to mention is from Richmond, Tyler Sonzi. He had 31 disposals and Jackie Bauer kicked three goals. We could be seeing them in the seniors very soon.
00:44:54
Speaker
From Sydney, Angus Sheldrick had 34 touches and nine clearances as well. Could he force his way into a swans midfield already chock with talent? It'd be tough, but he's certainly got the runs on the board so far this season. Thanks to Tommy, he's brought up a few options for us. Now, Hami, you mentioned before Josh Fahey, potential option for GWS, went monstrous in the VFL, but you'd rather wait a week to bring him in at the 200k basement price.
00:45:22
Speaker
Yeah, I saw that actually. That was kind of why I mentioned him earlier. But look, I think you can afford to wait a week. And I think that you're probably going to want to do something else with your trade. So yeah, see how it goes in the GWS lineup. See what his role is and whether he's going to look like he's going to have any job security. Yeah, I think
00:45:45
Speaker
what we've done in the past where we have sometimes blindly traded into these rookies can't be done anymore. Because if they do get stitched up with the sub, then all of a sudden you either find yourself carrying a bloke who's a green dot every week, but doesn't score comes on as the sub or, you know, he does score and then does get constantly subbed and it sort of starts going back the other way. So the sub rule is going to, uh, it's going to, uh, trip up a couple of people over the next, uh, season.
00:46:15
Speaker
And he hasn't debuted yet either, has he? So like this is going to be his first game. He'd be finding his feet. I'll give you another one too that I would probably put in the same boat is Elio. If he gets named, I'd probably want to see what he's going to do before I trade it into him as well.
00:46:30
Speaker
Well, taking that on board, I'm guessing Chincotta would be the same, but I do want to ask for one guy that we probably assume, or I would probably assume has a bit more job security would be Bailey Humphrey, Holmsey, but he comes at an added price
Top Fantasy Picks and Final Thoughts
00:46:42
Speaker
tag. We've seen him do some brilliant stuff, but I'd imagine he's more of that quality player than a big scorer, but could you go a Bailey Humphrey straight off the bat without seeing it, given the extension on his price tag at being at that? I think he's around 260. I'd have to have a quick look.
00:46:59
Speaker
I think he's at 290k so you're not actually going to get that much money from him if you're going someone down to him so you're not going to be able to do enough on the other end anyway and your rule from preseason never pick a son and you've proceeded to pick two of them so I think he's going to find it quite tough to score in that Gold Coast Suns setup so he'd definitely be someone I'd want to look at and even then I think he's going to be quite fairly priced for what he's going to put up in that side.
00:47:26
Speaker
He could even be that answer to Mateus Philippou, where a lot of coaches are looking to trade him out. Get a look at Bailey Humphrey. If he looks the goods, then you're still making a little bit of money off of it. And if the break even has been kickstarted, then he probably makes more money than what Philippou has since round one. So that might be an option next week. All right. Well, sorry, Hami, you've got something to say.
00:47:51
Speaker
I was just going to say, that pre-season game, he looked really good Humphrey. I mean, I had him in my initial squad until he got like a foot injury or a toe injury or something, didn't he? So, yeah, I mean, probably have to wait and see, but with Sam Flanders going out for the next six weeks, there may be a spot there for him. He's going to be in straight, I personally think it would be straight in like he looks like that kind of guy. Did you see the goalie kick from the boundary as well that went up on the highlight reel?
00:48:17
Speaker
got it you got to have a look at that one harmi he'll be straight into your side kicked a ridiculous goal like banged it on the boot from 55 out kind of on one step after doing a sidestep so encourage you to look at that highlight and you might uh be paying up the 290k like harmi will be this week
00:48:34
Speaker
A bit like Louis in the SA amateurs, is it? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Love that. All right. Well, we didn't want to be calling this segment stick and fat anymore. And we know it's essentially a hold or fold segment. But Hami's come up with this groundbreaking name of Trade Center. Hami, Trade Center, mate. We've got James Warple first up. What do you reckon? Trade Center or Trade or Center on this one, mate?
00:49:05
Speaker
Look, I don't think he's necessarily a trait. I did say that earlier in the pod, but having a look at like the CBA stuff that you're talking about from the keeper league there before, he had more CBAs than Newcomb. He had almost as much as Will Day. So I don't think he's in instant trade out for us. He was playing a sort of a defensive role on Cunningham from what I could gather, but I don't think he is a must trait at this point of the season.
00:49:33
Speaker
Hayden Young, Holmes here. I know we've got a Hayden Young owner here, so I didn't want to throw him this one. I'll get your thoughts on Hayden Young and what you do with him. It's a tough one, Dossie. I think, personally, coming back to the point I made earlier about needing to be able to have the ability to upgrade our team later on, I think I'd be sticking fat. And I think that's, oh, sorry, trading, trade centering, whatever we're calling it.
00:49:59
Speaker
Who are you going to go to? If you're, you know, maybe you're going down to Stuart making a little bit of coin, I would be able to tick that off because Stuart looks like he's going to be a keeper for us. But other than that, the value isn't really there. You're going to an Ed Richards who's been a little bit up and down. Maybe if you're going down to Will Day, that's not too late there and you make a bit of coin too.
00:50:18
Speaker
I don't think you'd want to be going up from Hayden Young because the defenders other than a Sicily are putting up rollercoaster scores and what's not to say that Hayden Young won't turn it around this week against Adelaide and the guy you trade to has a down week.
00:50:33
Speaker
Well, Adelaide, then Gold Coast, then Bulldogs, Brisbane and Hawthorne. He's a hold for me. He's been picked as a top six defender, whether he becomes one, I'm not sure, but I think he's shown enough that you don't throw the baby out in the bathwater just yet. I think he's still got potential to be in that sort of echelon, so I'm still big on Hayden Young.
00:50:59
Speaker
Add to that as well just the injury of Heath Chapman. He got subbed out and he's actually out for, I think it was, he's out for a little bit of time there with an injury. So I just checked the injury report before and I've already forgotten what it was, but he's out for a few weeks, Heath Chapman. So another
00:51:14
Speaker
defender down there, the mouse to feed. We'll just go one more on this trade center, Errol Goulden, and then I'm going to just go back to our hold-off fold because it's much quicker. But Errol Goulden, I do think this is worth discussing at 71 points on the weekend. Hasn't exploded to the lengths that we'd hoped for, but still, you know, been a serviceable option for us, Louis. Is here a trade or a center?
00:51:35
Speaker
Well, you're not trading yet. I don't think He's put up two good scores in the first two rounds. The third one was a little bit underwhelming it matched up with the drop in CBA usage and There's also in a game that Sydney ended up getting belted in so I would hold the faith I think I still think Errol golden is an 85 minimum, which is what we selected him at I think he's got the potential to be a 95 guy And as a forward that that's pretty important. So
00:52:05
Speaker
At this point, I'm still very much a hold on Errol and if he does end up being a keeper, I think you'll be kicking yourself in 15 rounds time that you've used the trade to get rid of this guy when you didn't actually need to do it in the first place. All right, we're going to hold a fold real quick fire here. Finn Callahan, Hami. Bold. See you, Finn. Holmesy Dom Sheed.
00:52:34
Speaker
Ah fold that one mate, jump off ASAP. Lem Stalker, Louis. If, what's not if, good to go, if healthy. If healthy, hang on let me just check the breakeven 43, yeah time to fold. Andy McGrath, still 20% owned, harm me, hold off fold.
00:52:56
Speaker
What did he score? If you've got him, you've just got to hold him. Some of these guys, you're going to have a higher priority trade outs than them, I reckon. Same with Gordon. He's okay. There's potential he could go up a bit. If he's your number one issue, sure, but I don't reckon he's going to be. I mean, 79 against the easiest defensive matchup, Saints.
00:53:17
Speaker
Yeah, but he's been picked at an average of 81. He's gone 81, 88 and 79. You know, it's got to be bigger issues in your team. And if there's not happy days, trade him. But, um, I still think there's upside there as he, as he sort of comes back into the role, which he hasn't been in for about, you know, six, seven years since his draft year. Hold a fold, Holden Francis, Holmsey.
00:53:44
Speaker
Oh, this one's tough. I see me match up on deck. A lot of pressure on him. I'm inclined to give him one more purely because of the role that he's playing in being around the ball a lot. But I, if he's your biggest issue, absolutely get off him.
00:54:05
Speaker
Louis shaking his head and disapproving. I think the mature guys will be chucked in the midfield this week for a must win game. So I'm not as bullish on JHF this week. Bazlenka, Louis, hold off.
00:54:22
Speaker
He's a hold mate, because I think he's going to get forward status at this rate. So, you know, you've got your new F1. Took Millie, you're probably holding a Hami, but 936K and I think he's only got, yeah, the one ton to his name, is it so far? No two tons, 108, 102, 88. Hami.
00:54:43
Speaker
Nah, you're going to hold. Yeah, holding for sure. All right. Listener requests, guys. Again, we don't have a segment name. We're working through these folks. Tom Stewart, bit of discussion around him, Holmsey.
00:54:55
Speaker
Yeah, look, he was absolutely incredible on the weekend. 1.28 off the back of a miraculous knee injury. Showing everyone why Hami and myself started him and we were very unlucky, so Louis made the point before we got on the pod that Geelong are sort of in unprecedented waters where they're getting spanked a little bit and the ball's spending a lot of time back there, so there could be a lot of ball for Tom Stewart. The only worry would be if they decide to tag him because if you shut him out of the game, who did Geelong have at the moment?
00:55:24
Speaker
Yeah, he's under priced, priced at 88, potential top six. I think he's a pretty smash play if you can get there.
00:55:31
Speaker
Yep, and make sure you follow us at Pod Pod AFL for all your requests during the week. Caleb Sarong, a guy that status riding up the ranks at the moment. 83 round one against what was apparently a tag on deck that week. Must have been a light one. I was watching. I didn't see too much, but I think he did get a bit of attention. Then a 115 against North and 127 against West Coast on the weekend. Louis, do you like the look of Sarong in the Fremantle midfield sans Will Brody?
00:56:01
Speaker
I do mate, there's a lot of ticks there. Young player, a lot of coaches have been tipping him to break out since last year. It's a tight midfield group, it's a very fantasy friendly side. I think it's a big tick for Caleb Sarong and well done to the coaches that started him.
00:56:20
Speaker
Now, one player that I'll put on the table who has been very requested this week, it is Cozy Pickett, and you guys saw in the chat today, we had Jaden Papowski, who's been doing a lot of stats in the fantasy community this year. His long-lost cousin, Dossie Papowski, put some numbers together for the Pod Pod group chat.
00:56:42
Speaker
Fast pressure small forwards, seeing more CBAs this year in this new found game style. Now, Errol Goulden was a bit of a challenger in the group, not that sort of small forward, but 91 average for him. Richelli at the crows, 88 average in his first three.
00:57:01
Speaker
Switkowski getting some more usage at Frio with 86 and Isaac Rankin with an 82 average. We saw Cosi Pickett come out with the 120 in round one. Now he's got that soft schedule, the low break even. And Hami, you're a fan of some of these Dossi Papowski numbers here.
00:57:21
Speaker
yeah no thanks buzz interesting stuff like i look 120 in the first game um he seemed to have a good role he had the same midfield chopout role in the preseason too so i don't think he's that bad a pick uh he's not going to kick four goals like he did in round one i wouldn't have thought but yeah i'm certainly having a look
00:57:42
Speaker
I wonder if the cousin will come up with some real stats surrounding our small forwards and see if there is actually any data to suggest that some of these guys are getting more of a run. I just think his one wood is tackling and I reckon he's going to be more around the ball this year, which is going to be juicy, homesy, Jordan to go. A bit of an apology on this one and is he an option in our midfields?
00:58:02
Speaker
A slight apology, Dossi. I think, you know, 120 round one, 60 round two, 120 round three, I think is going to be a bit of a roller coaster. No doubt he's breaking out. He's that player now that we all thought he was going to be in. And Collingwood are absolutely flying. I just worry about whether he can be consistent enough to be a top eight mid from that price range. But definitely is showing a lot, Dossi. So well done there on nailing one of your dart throws with all of the rest of the darts through the window and on the wall.
00:58:33
Speaker
Yes. Clayton Oliver, Holmes, I think you mentioned pre-show that you wanted to talk about this. You did touch on it a little bit earlier, but do you think targeting him at the moment at his massive price tag, have we touched on it enough in this show already, do you think?
00:58:47
Speaker
Yeah, I spoke about it a fair bit earlier. Yes, if you need a captain option and if he continues going at 130, then none of us are going to be able to get him and it's an absolute smash pick. I just keep going back to the value option and trying to get your rookies off the field and have a completed team as quickly as possible. So that $1,400,000 price tag that he's at, I think you could be better off maybe chasing a Josh Kelly or
00:59:13
Speaker
dare I say at a Darcy Parish or someone that can hopefully score in line with him, that's 150K cheaper, that allows you to get a rookie off the field quicker. Just my thoughts, Hami, what do you think? Have you ever traded into someone priced this heavily at this time of year when you had your successful seasons?
00:59:38
Speaker
Maybe I'll take that one then. It's pretty tricky to try it into 120 averaging player, but I think you nailed it with what you said there, Homsi. If you don't have a capital option, then maybe it is necessary, but you'd have to think come round three, come round four, there's better ways to spend your cash. You could even
01:00:04
Speaker
I mean just spitballing off the top of my head you almost saved 200k on some of these premiums that are still going to be keepers. So it's just it is paying up a lot and maybe you can use your cash better elsewhere.
01:00:17
Speaker
I'm going to rattle off our four names here and pick any that you actually think you consider. And if there's none, that's all good. But we've had requests for Libba, Dan McStay in that rock roll minus Darcy Cameron now, Jack Bose playing good footy, but no massive ceiling scores yet. And your boy, Jaden Hunt, anyone that you'd consider in your teams.
01:00:40
Speaker
Jaden Hunt's an option purely because of his price tag and if you are really strapped for cash and you need to get Constable up to someone, I think it's only a 30k jump to Jaden Hunt and you are going to get that instant cash hit but it does have a lot of Liam Stocker about it and if he comes out with a couple of 50s then the cash gen is going to be halted really quick.
01:00:59
Speaker
Lib is the interesting one. I wouldn't be touching Dan McStay purely because as soon as a Cox or a Cameron or someone like that is available, he's straight back to being a forward and you're kind of stuck there. Lib is the interesting one because he's getting 90% CBAs at the moment. So he's getting the role that we all hoped Jack McRae would get.
01:01:16
Speaker
And his scores are just through the roof at the moment. So I don't mind that as a pot option, but we keep preaching that Bevo's Bevo and we don't know what he's going to do. So I'm not sure I'd want to trade into Liber at the moment, but well done to coaches like Kimbo that got on him early and they're definitely seeing the rewards at the moment. Correct. He was in Kimbo's starting squad, also a proud Clayton Oliver owner. So Kimbo's flown. Just on Den's day. We don't actually expect him to play rock, do we?
01:01:46
Speaker
Don't I? They don't have anyone. They don't have that VFL. Rockman's not ready. Why wouldn't Billy Frampton jump in there? Who plays in defence? He just had an absolute ripper game on Tom Lynch. Don't I'd rather my key forward to be honest. Surely there's someone that can cover it. Anyway, we'll see. It's going to be interesting from a football sense how Collin would cover that because it's a big hole. If only they had another Rockman.
01:02:17
Speaker
Correct, yeah, poor Maxi Lynch, heading off just in the nick of time to avoid that last year. Okay, it's time to get to the Fossils 5.
01:02:35
Speaker
Now filling in for the fossil this week, we've got our honorary fossil, the second in line to the throne, Hammy. We've stitched you up with this one, but we want to hear your best five options. No offense, of course, meant for this. It's an honor being the fossil of the great mate.
01:02:56
Speaker
Yeah, no, it's a badge of honor. I wear it proud. Look, let's have, I won't go into too much depth on some, because we've spoken about them earlier in the podcast, but these are the five that I've listed, Dospy. JVR from Melbourne, okay.
01:03:12
Speaker
he only went up 38,000 and he has a break even of minus 10 averaging 76 from his one game so he put up a pretty decent score and he's priced at 27 so he plays west coast this week who are battling man all those injuries
01:03:30
Speaker
It's going to be a difficult few weeks for them, I reckon. And he looked pretty good. I mean, he's going to probably go up 50,000 this week, so a good week to bring him in. I probably wouldn't be playing him on field, so he's probably bench only. And Ben Brown got subbed out in that game, but they reckon he's going to be OK. So I'm not sure about what his long-term job security is going to be. But you guys are all considering him to some extent, I suppose, this week. Big time.
01:04:00
Speaker
Yeah. Kicking three goals on day, but it was a key forward. And I saw a stat that Frico posted out there. I think he had seven or eight tackle attempts for, you know, four or five successful ones. So you'd love to see the big fellas getting involved that way. And there's no Jeremy McGovern is there got injured on the weekend, didn't he?
01:04:20
Speaker
That structure of the Eagles defence is going to be up in the clouds this week because he's been there for so long so I can see JBR getting off the hook there. Pretty low time on ground but five centre-bounds of tendencies as well and attended 15 rut contests around the ground. Obviously Brody Grundy 47 but having that chop out so yeah like I do think like we said very safe at your number one there Matt.
01:04:49
Speaker
OK, now number two. Yeah, it's breaking my heart a little bit watching this guy carve up, but will die. I mean, he's six hundred and seventy one thousand still going up. Break even a twenty four. I mean, you're still going to make money on him over the next month if you jumped on now.
01:05:06
Speaker
probably don't be put off by the fact that you could have got him 100,000 cheaper, but anyway, he's got an average of 106. He's actually a legit chance for a top six defender. He's priced at 77, so yeah, still a little bit of room there. He's improving, like he's in the CBAs, and I can't see Sam Mitchell moving out of there because he's looking really good doing it.
01:05:32
Speaker
And we spoke about Cozy Pickett, so he's only played the one game obviously when he, a bit of a brain fade going for the shoulder charge, but he's 543,000, so where I spoke earlier, he's at an affordable price point for me, and I assume that's gonna be the case for a lot of other coaches as well. Break even of 21, he's got an average of 120 from that round one game, and that'll be factored into his price for a few weeks yet.
01:06:00
Speaker
so he's priced at 62. Look he may he may end up being an 80 guy and that's still a really good result if you were going to trade him in at this point. So fresh off a two-week break and he had that rolled into CBAs in round one so and he's got the buy coming up does he?
01:06:18
Speaker
Yeah. Can I just say, you know, I don't usually make huge hot takes. I don't think, obviously I'm not expecting him to go, you know, a hundred or anything crazy like that, or even maybe, you know, 80 to 85 could be ambitious for Cozy, but I'm going to go out there and as my hot take for a guy that only averaged, I think 2.7 tackles per game. I think he's only averaged, you know, two to three across his career so far, adding into his fourth year. I actually think this guy's the best tackler in the competition. So I
01:06:45
Speaker
That's a big call for Dossie, but just look at the way he tackles. I think he's going to average between five and 10 this year and just up his score just in that sense, being around the ball. He is an amazing tackler. Sorry, I'm just laughing because he did get suspended for a poor tackle in round one, so I'd appreciate the irony there, but I do agree with you, Dossie.
01:07:07
Speaker
Look, that may or may not be the case, but the fact of the matter is he had a noticeable run through the midfield in round one and the week before in the preseason. So if he continues that, I mean, it's a good pick. And it was flagged. It was flagged in the preseason prior to any games being played as well. So we're seeing it come to fruition.
01:07:28
Speaker
and he doesn't have a contract and they've got to suck up to get him to stay. So that's a part of it also. Number four, I've got Tom Stewart here. Again, heartbreak for me at Holmsey, wearing the 14 and now everybody's going to get him super cheap. But came back off a six-week injury that ended up being a one-week injury, priced at, what did he get, 120? 126. 126, man, that's crazy.
01:07:56
Speaker
priced at $7.57, break even of $106, so you could still afford to wait a week if you were sort of worried about money and potentially that McGinnis tag coming his way for that eventuates. So he's now priced at $87 and he's going to be a bit over $90 I'd say at a minimum. So he's still a good pick and a discounted premium based on that injury in round one.
01:08:23
Speaker
And then the last one, either this guy was all the flavor last week, but people have gone a bit quiet because he put up a 78. And that's Jack Zebel. So he's priced at 670,000, a break even of 50. Still averaging 99 for the season, mind you, and priced at 77. So look, I think that his role is still going to be good down back. Just, I'm slightly quieter, but I mean, he's still got 78. It's not as if he completely flopped.
01:08:52
Speaker
Aaron Hall coming back a little bit of a risk if they do play him but you've got to remember that Aaron Hall they didn't give a contract to until the last minute of the end of last season and they gave him a one-year deal so I can't imagine them seeing him as a long-term prospect but I still think that Zebel is an option for people that are that way inclined. It wasn't a high scoring game for the Roos either so him getting that 78 or whatever it was probably a good result. I'd still trade into him.
01:09:22
Speaker
Just a couple of guys, Holmsey, I just want to wrap this up before we're going to finish the show in just a second, but I know you've got a few that missed out on the cut there. You have written them here on the sheet, Hami, that we can say, but I do want to mention, we'll set a field. Obviously, the number one trade target for many, many coaches last week, Holmsey,
01:09:44
Speaker
Is he still in your plans or did the coaches have missed out? Now he scored that 88 last week. Is he now, you know, weigh down the power rankings on trading targets? Yeah, look, he was a good starting pick and even coaches that traded into him last week got that sugar hit for the cash gen. The score wasn't fantastic, but I think he had a five point first quarter and then absolutely came home. So the scoring potential still there.
01:10:11
Speaker
He's had some soft matchup, so personally for me, he's not someone I'd be looking to target at his price now, priced at 86, 88, whatever it is. I think he's going to be a 95 averaging player from here and not quite a top eight mid, so he's not someone I'd look to bring in this week, but well done to everyone else that has got him over the last three weeks.
01:10:30
Speaker
And I know you're a big, big Freo man is sarong someone that you're considering as well and easy and harm his top 10, but didn't quite crack the top five. I know he's a big, big target for coaches this week as well.
01:10:42
Speaker
Yeah, he's been unreal, hasn't he? And the thing we've always said about Caleb Sarong is that he's had low time on ground, and that's what's held him back in three games on the truck now with 80% time on ground. He's fantastic. So priced at 95. If you can see him going 105 from here, then there's still enough meat on the bone, and he's going to be close enough, if not a top eight mid, with scores coming down. But I do worry that we might have missed the boat a little bit here. He's had North and the Eagles, who are two very soft matchups.
01:11:10
Speaker
With Adelaide and Gold Coast coming up, two potential sugar hits. You got to go now. Otherwise, yeah, you've missed the boat there.
01:11:18
Speaker
All right, thanks guys so much for another massive pod, pod state. I would have wrapped this pod up about half an hour ago. So we did, we did go a little bit longer and appreciate everyone sticking around. Thanks to you, Hami. Thanks, Louie. And thanks, Holmes. We hope we didn't get you in too much trouble, mate, with the kids, everyone that has the kids here, including the boss there. So, all right, we'll wrap that up. Good luck for everyone for round four. Have a safe long weekend, everyone.
01:11:43
Speaker
Drive safe out there. I hope you have some great time with your family and enjoy some footy. Get those big fantasy scores. We'll see you next week. Thanks, God.