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Bye Rounds Strategy Chat With THE STATESMAN #PODPOD
2.8k Plays2 days ago
He is back! We are almost at the bye rounds and there is no greater man in the AFL Fantasy game to talk about them than 5 top time 100 finisher The Statesman! This man built his fantasy career off the back of strategy during the bye rounds. His insight is invaluable!
On this episode, Stato joins Holmesy, Harmey and Lewy as they discuss round nine and start to build towards a very interesting bye round period. They deep dive into strategy that has worked in the past, how we can learn and adapt inside a new 5 game system and look at players to target during the bye rounds. This episode is one for the old school listeners, new listeners and everyone chasing an elusive hat. Enjoy!
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Transcript
Introduction and Panel Setup
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmesy here talking all things AFL Fantasy Classic for you on this Monday, the 12th of May. Round nine's done. We have a full panel this week. No Sam, true to form. He didn't climb in rank this week. So unfortunately that means that he's a no-show for the pod. But we do have a very special guest that we'll get to. But as always, we have two-time top 10 finisher and runner-up in 2019, John Harmey.
00:00:45
Holmesy
john harmy Fresh off a okay week, Harmy, how are you?
00:00:50
Jon Harmey
ah Yeah, look, not that great a week, to be fair. But did did score more points than Sam, so looks like I'm heading in the right direction.
Player Trade Decisions
00:01:00
Holmesy
And I mean, Hugo had a what, 64 this week, Harmy, did you get him on field?
00:01:06
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I looped as as ah predicted. I did loop him and then elected not to take his score. So um I'm thinking in the minute it may be. oh Look, I thought it might be the week to trade him out, but he's got West Coast, so I've got to hold him, don't He's
00:01:24
Holmesy
Fair enough.
00:01:26
Holmesy
And as always, we have ah the perennial top 1000 finisher and just quietly very, very close to chasing that top 100, which we'll get to.
00:01:26
Jon Harmey
last the season.
00:01:37
Holmesy
Louis, mate, fresh off a good week. How are you?
Buy-Round Strategy Discussion
00:01:40
Lew
Yeah, not too bad, mate. Yeah, keen to talk a little bit of fantasy. It's heating up now towards the bias, so it's um it's an exciting time of year.
00:01:49
Holmesy
And I tease this off the top. We're planning a buy-around episode today and we can't have a buy-around episode without having this man. he he gets more He gets excited more than anyone else to chat about the buy-arounds. It was in tight his entire life there for a stage. We have the Stato for a return. Stato, mate, how are you?
Weekly Results and Reflections
00:02:09
Stato
I'm wonderfully well. It's great to see you. Well, that's two of you and here three of you. So it's great to be here
00:02:18
Holmesy
It's ah good to have you back, mate. It's yeah every year around this time with the buyers, we haven't had you for a while, but always always front of mind, you you love this time of year. It was your time to really differenti differents out differentiate sorry yourself from the pack and really launch up the rank. So we're really excited to to get your thoughts on how we should be attacking the buy rounds this year, knowing full well that you're not actually playing footy anymore, now ah playing fantasy now that you have a girlfriend. But we we won't we won't go into too much of that.
00:02:50
Holmesy
But hey, it's exciting.
00:02:51
Stato
Never let facts get in the way of a good story.
00:02:51
Holmesy
It's exciting.
00:02:54
Holmesy
That's it. So, Harmi, why don't you start us off, as always, with your your round, how it went, and and your dossier and stator picks for the week.
Trade Regrets and Player Performance
00:03:03
Jon Harmey
Oh, look, as usual, Holmesy, there were some highs and lows. My score for the week was 2067, which basically didn't change my rank, still 12,500. Unbelievably poor.
00:03:14
Jon Harmey
um Yeah, I didn't see the Jadon short out, but that didn't hurt me too much. What did hurt me, however, was my trade-in of Lockie Neal, which Oh, jeez, I'll tell what. I'll give you that the upcoming fixtures for the Lions, which sort of drew me into trading him.
00:03:36
Jon Harmey
So they played against North on the weekend, then Melbourne, Hawthorne, Essendon, Adelaide, and then the Giants, Cats. So not a bad run coming up. I thought I were in for a few points here, and it actually cost me six points for the week. so not really what I was hoping for out of the weekend, mate.
00:03:56
Stato
Computer says no.
00:03:56
Holmesy
Stato? Yeah.
00:03:57
Holmesy
Can we just get your raw thoughts on that one, Stato?
00:03:57
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:04:01
Stato
ah Yeah, it was a no. um i haven't been following the game, but soon as Harmi mentioned that, look, that's who I brought in, I thought, well, I'm not even really watching too much information. But that's a no from the start.
00:04:12
Stato
You shouldn't have even thought about that, to be quite honest with you. I'm sure there's better selections on people on the way up rather than on the way down and the major target a tag target for a club that's got a million midfielders.
00:04:27
Holmesy
Jeez, Harmi, are you enjoying having Stato back or what?
00:04:31
Jon Harmey
Yeah, that's good, some bit of honesty.
00:04:35
Holmesy
And what does that have you ranked now, Harmi?
00:04:38
Jon Harmey
Ah, 12 and a half thousand, 12,800. Awful.
00:04:42
Jon Harmey
awful
00:04:43
Holmesy
first First slide though
Successful Strategies and Humorous Anecdotes
00:04:45
Holmesy
in a while, right? And you've still got some good team value to get some better players on field. I myself had a 21-34, so probably about par for the week. I think I went up about 200 spots to just outside 1,000 at 1,006.
00:05:02
Holmesy
I was hoping to to get inside, but unfortunately, Sheezil going quiet in that last quarter. And then Zorko and some of those other highly owned but ah Brisbane players going nuts. Man, I just slipped out, but pretty happy with how the team's tracking, but nowhere near as good as Lou. So yeah us ah let us ah know how you're going, Lou.
00:05:23
Lew
Yeah, no, i had a um a pretty decent round. I got a 21.93, which was a little bit above par, which was nice. So that brought my rank in about 200 spots. So I'm sitting at 122 now. So starting to get towards that um top end and hopefully I can keep on keeping on with that.
00:05:44
Holmesy
Gee, 122, Lou, that's impressive considering you've been sort of hovering around that 200 to 300 mark essentially since round two. That was really that good week that you needed to to bump up, hey?
00:05:58
Lew
Yeah, I think so. Yeah, ah you're you're probably right. I've just been um maybe going up or down 100 spots, but been fairly consistent. So yeah, to get that on the board this week, um through off the back of probably my Stato pick of the week, which I'll go on about later. um Yeah, it was it was nice to see.
00:06:17
Holmesy
Can you confirm that you abandoned your own mother on Mother's Day to take my call to make sure that you are pivoted off that Jaden Short laid out?
00:06:27
Lew
Yeah, well, I saw the call come through and I immediately hung up. um I'm busy. I'm at Mother's Day lunch. And then ah when it came through again, I thought, oh, okay, there might be something going on here.
00:06:38
Lew
Ironically, had I not picked up the phone, had I not seen your messages, I actually would have put up a larger score on the field. So...
00:06:48
Lew
it's ah It's interesting how that works, but they're certainly not complaining, mate.
00:06:48
Holmesy
Yeah, sorry about that one.
00:06:53
Lew
um Always appreciate a little buzz if something happens real late, as it did with um Jaden Short. it did ah did get a couple of coaches out there, unfortunately.
00:07:04
Holmesy
why don't we Why don't we stay with
Player Picks and Analysis
00:07:06
Holmesy
you, Lou? And because we've got the great man, why don't we start with our Stato picks of the week first?
00:07:11
Lew
Yep. So, uh, living up to the great man, Nick Martin was, um, fantastic on the weekend. It was great to see him, ah reward me after a couple of, uh, lower games and he was back to his 100% tog, which is what we saw a couple of weeks ago as well. His, uh,
00:07:29
Lew
His role is pretty much licensed to roam, which was great to see. Yeah, is ah he's going to be a popular target, I think, for coaches ah in the coming weeks just because he is probably underpriced and he's got that ah DPP forward defender status. So, ah yeah, very, very happy with Nico Martin, the Marty Party.
00:07:51
Holmesy
Yeah, look, his his heat map suggests that he was, i think it was 75% in defense. And then because he's so fit, getting up the ground and and getting posse's up the field too. So if that role's changed, where we did see it a couple of weeks ago, i think in that Eagles game, but I think that was more due to injuries. But then after that as well, he's just spending more time in defense. If he's back into that role that we saw last year,
00:08:14
Holmesy
There's no reason that he can't be that 105 guy in theory that you can hide either in forward or defense.
00:08:17
Lew
Yeah.
00:08:20
Holmesy
So yeah, really good pick by you, Lou, and definitely a target this week. Harmi, what's your Stato Pick of the Week?
Underperforming Players and Rookie Management
00:08:26
Jon Harmey
My Stato pick of the week. And Stato will actually really like this because I believe that they went to high school together. But Dane Zorko putting 137 points in my was pretty good
00:08:38
Holmesy
Come on, Harmy. There's no chance. Stato could probably be his grandfather, but there's no way they went to high school together.
00:08:46
Holmesy
Stato, your Stato pick of the week?
00:08:50
Stato
My pick of the week, um I've picked every player correct this year. I haven't missed a single one. Unfortunately, if you want to ask me my score for this week, it is zero. ah So that's how bad I'm going. I'm stone motherless last.
00:09:04
Stato
um And, of course, I did see the Suns game, of course. And I will say that my pick of the year, which hasn't come true yet, ah Bailey Humphrey, I was just really impressed by the way he moved.
00:09:17
Stato
Although there was something, I just noticed there was a gate that looked like Mitch Robinson. I couldn't believe it. Two or three times ago, is that Mitch Robinson? Turn around, number 19 on his back. Oh, God, that's Bailey Humphrey.
00:09:29
Stato
So he's interesting, got a gate and attacks the footy like Mitch Robinson does.
00:09:35
Holmesy
I wonder if it's the gate or whether it's the long-sleeved tats that he has now. But yeah, either way, probably going to be potentially yeah an option for us in the future if he gets more of a sustained role in the midfield.
00:09:40
Stato
Yeah, probably.
00:09:47
Stato
yeah
00:09:49
Holmesy
My Stato pick of the week, and God, this guy, he owed me and he was doing what he normally does where he gets off to a hot start and then goes absolutely cold. Louis, I apologize for the DMs because I was depressed.
00:10:04
Holmesy
Max Holmes, 60 point first half, 8 point third quarter. And I thought, here we go again. He's just going to limp his way to another 70, 80, but a 50 point last quarter. 118 from Max Holmes definitely saved me this week. So very happy with that pick. And hopefully now he can put a few back to back and not be up and down like we've seen him so far. Lou, now let's go in the opposite direction. What's your dossie pick for the week?
00:10:30
Lew
Yeah, um look, this is probably a bit rough because he's been a nice starting selection, but I'm going to give it to Adam Chera with the 72. um Expected a little bit better against the Saints, and especially so that he was actually playing behind the ball. So even though it wasn't the midfield role that we really picked him for, I thought against the Saints, it's probably not the worst position to play, but just didn't capitalize and um it's probably been a little bit consistent throughout the year that he's dropped back behind the footy. And um it's it's probably, you know, just because Carlton's midfield with Walsh, Cripps and Hewitt is just firing on all cylinders at the moment. So he's the unlucky one there. And um yeah, i um I'm not sure what that looks like going forward. I'm i'm probably a little bit concerned now.
00:11:20
Jon Harmey
Lou, remember, was last week, wasn't it, that he finished the game with a bit of a groin issue and then getting treatment on the sidelines. So maybe they were just trying to rest him a bit.
00:11:31
Lew
Well, yeah, that's apparently it was just a cramp. So yeah, he had he had the pickle juice, went back on the ground last week and or two weeks ago now and finished the game on the ground.
00:11:43
Lew
So I think if Adam Chera was under an injury cloud, they're going to park him on the bench and and wrap him up in cotton wool. So I think it's just a case of um there's some players in that midfield playing better footy at the moment and they're they're not quite sure where to play Adam Chera.
00:11:55
Holmesy
you
00:12:00
Holmesy
Yeah, I think it might have something to do with the fact that they lost Cowan and McGovern as well, Lou. So two players down back.
00:12:05
Jon Harmey
Hmm, yeah. ye
00:12:07
Holmesy
um Cooper Lord was the sub who's a midfielder, so it was probably easier for them to swing Chera down back um and bring bring Lord on. But yeah, definitely bit of a flag. Hopefully we can get him through to the bye and then we can reassess there because he's been a good starting pick. But um if he drops another couple of 70s from this point, then a lot of that good work is undone. So yeah, big watch on Adam Chera.
00:12:28
Holmesy
Harmi? Your Dossie Pick of the Week, are we doubling down on the lucky meal or do you have someone else?
00:12:33
Jon Harmey
Yeah, yeah. The other um over 30-year-old Brisbane Lions player that I've traded in in the last two weeks. So Lockie Neal can have it, 63 points. I mean, he's probably lucky to get to 63 the way he played in the first half. So, yeah, a bit of a
In-Depth Buy-Round Strategies
00:12:50
Jon Harmey
regretful trade in, I suppose.
00:12:53
Holmesy
Yeah, fair enough, Harmi. And mine's going to tie into our first hot topic of the week. And I know, Lou, you were very keen on trading this ah bloke out and and some good coaches did, which was good to get ahead of the pack. Caleb Daniel, 57.
00:13:09
Holmesy
What's that? Back-to-back 70s and now 57. ah Now that Sheasel's gone back into defense, starting to bleed cash now. So he's starting to undo a lot of his good work. And I want to throw to you first, Harmi, because I know Lou's keen to get him out.
00:13:24
Holmesy
With the Richmond game this week, break even of 112, is it now to to trade out Caleb Daniels even with this matchup? Or do you think with Sheasel having gone into defence, we've seen it in three weeks now, maybe he's not even going to score even against Richmond. What do you think?
00:13:40
Jon Harmey
Well, I'll be holding only because I have bigger issues. But if he is in your bottom five players on field, I think he's certainly somebody that you could be trading if you can get up to, say, Christian Petrarca or a... um or a Chad Warner, those type of players. So, or in your back line, there's actually a few good options in the back line this week with your sort of, well, if you can get to Sheezle, but your Sinclair type players. So, yeah, look, if you can, if you've got the ability to get rid of him this week, I don't think it's a bad idea, but I personally would be holding
00:14:16
Holmesy
Lou, why don't you talk us through um the reasons of why you're so gung-ho at the moment of trading out Caleb Daniel this week, even with the Richmond matchup?
00:14:25
Lew
ah Well, he was out for me last week um up until that Jadon Short news. So I was more than happy to move him on, even despite that Richmond matchup. I just don't think um he's the player that we purchased, albeit for about 500k at the start of the year. That role has pretty much dissipated.
00:14:44
Lew
And it is off the back of Sheasel, but it's also off the back of Riley Hardiman, who's come into that side in the last three or four weeks and has has played some fantastic footy, both offensively and defensively, which has just put Caleb Daniel in this weird in-between role.
00:14:53
Jon Harmey
Yeah, he's been good.
00:14:56
Holmesy
Thank you.
00:15:01
Lew
And, um... Just watching him, he does lead for space, but he he's just so easy to defend because he's not a very large bloke. So not only is he struggling to go offensively, but um when he does have to defend, players almost look for where's Caleb Daniel, what's the matchup, because he's just he's just not able to you know do that part of the game.
00:15:24
Lew
His kick-ins, ah speaking to Vams, who's doing quite well this year, um his kick-ins are something like 38% of his scoring in the last two weeks, which is a massive increase on the on the um weeks before Sheezle was actually in that defensive line. So, yeah, I'm not sure the role is there. And when you're in a poor team and you're not the main distributor, that's where you can find some some really frightening flaws, which is probably what we saw on the weekend. And and that 57 was actually generous. He was on 42 with about five minutes to go, but just got a couple of late cuddles and ah and a few kicks and handballs in there that um weren't very effective, but it um probably saved him from falling below that mark.
00:16:11
Jon Harmey
And Sheezal's taking kick-ins too. And the other thing I sort of noticed, when they go to Sheezal, Sheezal, like, so so the out of the kick-in, goes to Sheezal, he takes the mark.
00:16:23
Jon Harmey
He only ever bombs long. He never actually tries to pick off a a shorter kick. So that seems to be a direction that they've given him. So, i mean, there's no chipping around. So he's not getting the ball back sort of thing.
00:16:36
Jon Harmey
It's a bit hard to watch being a non-Sheezal owner.
00:16:42
Holmesy
So, Lou, let's talk a little bit about priority then. So, we still have rookies on field at the moment that we need to look to get off, right? So, you know, let's compare the urgency of trading out a Daniel compared to a Riley Bice or maybe coaches are still running with a Lindsay type, Marais, or Hill's sub, but someone in that ilk are clearly that they're still running on field.
00:17:04
Holmesy
Do you think for those coaches... they need to ignore Caleb Daniel for now and then focus on getting those players off the field? Or do you think that the cash that Caleb Daniel is potentially going to lose is worth getting off him, even if it means maybe copying a little bit of a points hit this week?
00:17:23
Lew
Yeah, I suppose it probably depends a little bit on the rookie we're talking about. um Obviously, we've got some rookies like, I know Riley Bice has been a little bit disappointing the last two weeks, but he's more than capable of putting up respectable scores week to week, whereas Daniel, since he's lost the role, has has pretty much plummeted. I know he's he' not a rookie, but um he's scoring like one. He may as well be one. So last three weeks, 57, 77, 75, but it's...
00:17:51
Lew
but it's It's not great, but you know you are probably right, Holmesy, in that if you're playing that rookie roulette with some of those cheaper guys, um maybe you do hide behind that matchup of the Richmond um this week and then his buys in round 12 so two more games of caleb daniel uh if he drops two absolute stinkers you might lose you know what 60 to 80k uh we purchased him for 500 so it's you know it's not the worst case scenario but i think um coaches that can manage to jump off of him and i'd be suggesting maybe doing something creative
00:18:31
Lew
ah sort of going sideways. You've got ah you've got a James Peatling there who's just popped a score and looks like he's going to have that midfield role for a couple of weeks with no Matty Crouch. um That's the sort of moves I think I'd be looking for with a Daniel.
00:18:47
Holmesy
Beautiful. We'll get into some of those crafty, cheaper options a little bit later in the pod. Harmi, I want talk to talk a little bit about Jaden Short. So the other hot topic was him being the laid out. Now, if he's named, I think it's a different conversation. But in this in this new age rolling lockout, if he they I think they play on Sunday, either the first or second game. So you're leaving it quite late.
00:19:10
Holmesy
Is it possible that coaches go early on a Jaden Short this week and and trade him out anyway? He hasn't exactly been hurting us, but he hasn't been shooting the lights out either. What are your thoughts on a Jaden Short um this early in the week?
00:19:24
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I think that if you don't have a decent level of coverage for him, then he's probably a good trade-out option, as I think I've got trainer still as my So depending on what the rest of my team looks like, i may...
00:19:41
Jon Harmey
May hold, but yeah, you're right. First game on that Sunday against North, so not a bad matchup. But I don't know. I didn't sort of get much info. Did just much come out of about that, Holmesy, about the injury?
00:19:55
Jon Harmey
Because it's sort of it was so late, wasn't it? I just sort of thought, well, maybe that's a good sign because they were giving him every chance to get up. But um I haven't heard anything, so I don't know if this is going to be like an uncertainty throughout the course of this week and next. I couldn't tell you.
Round-by-Round Strategy and Player Value
00:20:11
Holmesy
Yeah, all that kind of came out was that he was dealing with a bit of inflammation in the back of his knee, um which meant that he he couldn't sort of straight straighten his leg and and kick towards the the start of that game. But as Lou mentioned, like he he was such a laid out that you would have thought that he was every chance to play and and just didn't get up at the line. And if they're giving him that long, unless it actually happened in the warm-up, unless he got a knock and then something happened from there, that that hasn't been sort of given to us just yet. But...
00:20:41
Holmesy
Yeah, I think in your situation and mine, Harmi, if you've got trainer at D7, that's an easy flick, right? Like if it's just the week again, trainer comes on, you'd expect trainer to probably have a little bit of a bump with no short there anyway.
00:20:55
Holmesy
um and And you know that they're in the same game and you can just flick that. So that's no issue. But I suppose it's a ah big issue, Lou, for some of those other coaches that might not have cover on the line. So any coaches that are relying on a trainer to actually be on field plus short,
00:21:09
Holmesy
because they've let their benches go. Are you recommending them to potentially look at a Jaden Short trade or or maybe look at a target on that Sunday that they can pivot to if if Short's not named?
00:21:19
Lew
Oh, look, I'd just, um yeah, I'd be tracking what that injury looks like throughout the week. yeah His main training session should be a pretty good indicator as to whether or not he's going to play this weekend.
00:21:33
Lew
I'd tend to think that he'll be fine and he'll get up for it, but... If you are looking at trading, I'd probably err on on the side of not doing so. ah Like you said, he's not a player that's actually hurt us yet, but at the same time, he probably hasn't excelled the way that um some coaches were expecting.
00:21:51
Lew
ah Might be best just to hide behind a couple of nice matchups in the next two weeks and... And then flick him on because even though I'm guessing that knee injury is not too serious, it's probably something that he's going to now have to manage for the rest of the year. So for me, yeah, I'd be holding if I were coaches.
00:22:13
Holmesy
Yep, yep. yeah
00:22:13
Lew
But, you know, if he's hurt, make necessary adjustments as news comes to hand, obviously.
00:22:19
Holmesy
Beautiful. Thanks, Pete. All right. So what we got the great man on to discuss is the buy around. So yeah we've we've kind of held off up up until this point of of really going into buy around strategy and and getting sorted because at least I preach just picking the best players at the best prices up until this point.
00:22:27
Lew
Thank you.
00:22:38
Holmesy
and And then from there, looking to get your buy around structure nice and set over the next couple of weeks leading in. But Stato, you made yourself famous for your buy-around strategy. So why don't you talk to us a little bit about your old philosophies and then we've deliberately kept it nice and raw so that you can give some fresh takes on how you might have looked to target and play the buys this year.
00:22:59
Stato
Yeah, absolutely. i suppose it's probably important to um share it in a really sort of big, broad way to start with. I think the buy rounds ah used to be a case of it was the way to win or catch up or set yourself um for a a crack at a ah cap, for for one of the better term.
00:23:22
Stato
um I think now it's more ensuring that you don't lose your position. And there's a couple of reasons for it. Obviously, the buy system has changed quite dramatically. We've gone from having three, which was basically 666,
00:23:38
Stato
um to this year there's five rounds. So it's actually much easier to manage your squad, especially when you've got best 18 and three trades all the way through. um But the other thing which and I think I've talked about a little bit over the years is actually our players um and a sort of reasonably sized amount of them, 20,000, 30,000, are really intelligent players now.
00:24:02
Stato
um And it's part of because the industry of the the podcast, the information, the websites have really educated people really well on how to win good strategy. And you've got um you three sharing great ideas. Unfortunately, people like Dossie probably don't help people, um but probably educate those what they shouldn't do. So you've got all this information coming out.
00:24:26
Stato
um And it actually means you've got really educated coach. So rather than actually setting yourself up for for an onslaught to have a win or some success, I think if you do the buy will ah buy rounds really well, you actually don't lose the setup that you've actually started.
00:24:43
Stato
And it doesn't mean you can't catch up, but I think it makes less of an impact. I used to go in... um um in the late teens, 20 teens, actually thinking, I'm going to halve my rank here. So if I was going in at 200, I was expecting to be at 100. That was the minimum expectations. And sometimes I'll outdo that.
00:25:04
Stato
um If I had a really bad start to the year and I was sitting at 2,000, I was expecting to be in the top 1,000 and having a bit of a crack. I think that's much harder to do these days.
00:25:16
Stato
So couple of key points, and Holmesy, don't think you're wrong in picking the best players, the best price players, getting the best squad balance, but I think it's also important, and used to do this every year, that you actually set up mindful of the buys. You don't structure, but the buys become when you've got a there's no point having 12 premiums in in round 12. It's going to look good at round 14, 15 and 16, but the reality is you're going to lose too much space to be able to catch up.
00:25:47
Stato
So um having the balance, hopefully already there. From then on, and and I will say, you don't want to have mid-prices and very few rookies, although I know you're a bit thin on rookies at the moment, that actually are round 12.
00:26:01
Stato
um So they're the ones that you want to sell all the way through. So if your rookies and your mid prices are 13, 14, 15 and 16, they're the ones you want to sell as you go each and every week.
00:26:14
Stato
And then the concentration with the 18, best 18 that your score's coming from and your three trades, you should be utilising that to actually always bring in from round 13 onwards a player that has completed their buys.
00:26:30
Stato
So they're completing and your squad gets easier and thicker and more players counting towards the 18 and each and every week, if that makes sense. um And I would suggest that you limit your sideways trading of premiums.
00:26:46
Stato
If you've got a top six or top eight player, depending on which line, um play with the rest. Don't muck around with them. Keep them in your squad um because the aim should be that you have a fully completed squad at the end of the buy rounds.
00:27:03
Holmesy
Yeah, and and that's a great point. So just just to for our new listeners and and maybe some some listeners that are just new to the game, you're saying, Stato, that it's it's easy with your three trades during the buys to sort of sideways trade premiums and and maybe keep the scores going throughout the buys.
00:27:20
Holmesy
But what you're saying is once you come out of the buys, then other teams are going to hunt and get past you because you've got your rookies off the field and you've got a good squad coming out rather than hunting points during the buys.
00:27:21
Lew
Thank
00:27:31
Stato
Correct, yep. So you you always want to keep that balance right, but this is why if you've got a top six or top top eight player, no matter what buy they have, you keep them. It's actually trying to find the rest of them fitting in along the way through the rookies and the mid-prices.
00:27:46
Stato
And i would it's not perfect, right, because you know you haven't got a million rookies or mid-prices in your team, but I'll be always looking two down, one up um for every buy round, if I possibly could.
00:28:01
Holmesy
Now, you were used to love your 8, 10, 12 model with your 30 green dots where you'd have ah back when we had three buy rounds, you'd have eight players on the buy in the first round, 10 in the second, and then 12 in the third so that you're able to trade your way down as you go along.
00:28:17
Holmesy
Knowing now that it's the buy rounds are over five weeks, Are you more thinking that we should look at maybe just counting our premiums to make sure our premiums are balanced throughout?
00:28:28
Holmesy
And then as you go along, trading into players off their buys? Or do you think you know it's it's good to load up more towards the end of the buys and trade off as you go? What are what are your raw thoughts?
00:28:38
Stato
ah slightly leaning to the load up at the end buys. and And it's just slightly right. It becomes the 50-50 choices. That's where you go. It just makes it easier to make a move. Just say, um so ah I was listening to you before, boys.
00:28:54
Stato
um To me, Daniel goes right. He's not a top six or eight. He goes straight away. He's got the first buy. I'd rather find someone in round 15 or 16 buys to replace him that could be – um A similar position to him but going to make you money and hopefully more points for the remainder of the week until you trade him out.
00:29:15
Stato
Using that as an example.
00:29:16
Holmesy
Yeah, so I know just one more question before we get into some players to target in their buy round. So ah know you sometimes didn't like to bring in premiums in that first buy round, knowing that they were going to have a buy so quickly. But do you think this year that the smart play for the round 12 buy players, if they're surplus to your squad and we don't need them, that you trade them out to a round 16 would be the perfect scenario because you're going to get five weeks before they have their buy.
00:29:42
Holmesy
So it's just about sort of loading up a bit. and am Am I getting that right?
00:29:46
Stato
Yeah, I would certainly look at it. It's a case-by-case position, right? um I just wouldn't i wouldn't want to have too many round 12 players and I would have set it up that way. There are people that you shouldn't ignore, of course.
00:30:02
Stato
um We get that. But I would have tried to be a little bit thin on round 12 and I deliberately would have done that, um that I could start bringing in round 12 players because – um There's only six teams in the first two rounds of buys.
00:30:19
Stato
So therefore your options bringing in in six trades is a little bit tough.
00:30:27
Holmesy
I want to throw a ah scenario at you, Stato. And you played last year, right? So Tristan Cherry last year was, I think, the second highest averaging Ruckman at 115.
00:30:39
Holmesy
um we We all knew he had a tough run to start this year, priced at 115. So half the comp started him, half didn't. He got injured in round two and and put up three 70s in a row and found himself very, very cheap, but has now bounced back with, I think it's almost three 115 pluses in a row, if not four.
00:30:58
Holmesy
Priced at 106. He has his buy in two weeks. If you wait two weeks to get him after his buy, he'll be probably more than likely priced at 110, 112, maybe even higher, and you've missed all that value. So putting a player like that and just using it as a general round 12 buy players, can we trade into them now knowing they've got a buy in two weeks if they're at the right price? Or are you affirmly know they've got a buy in two weeks.
00:31:26
Holmesy
Even if they go up, they're still better to get off their buy.
00:31:29
Stato
I'm a stubborn son of a bitch, so um I'll be waiting until round 13 to bring him in.
00:31:36
Lew
Yeah, ah I would probably just jump on if that's your if that's your thoughts because everybody's going to play a bye from now on.
00:31:36
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:31:44
Lew
So if your structure is sound, I don't mind jumping on. um Yeah, that's that's just my general thoughts, but I'd be listening to Stato. It's pretty hard to follow up on advice like that, isn't it?
00:31:57
Stato
just stubborn.
00:31:58
Holmesy
Yeah, I suppose the thing about Cherry is Stato. He's got Richmond this week and if he has a 150, then that everything else goes away because he's just going to launch. But yeah, it's it's very interesting to see two good coaches think about the game differently.
00:32:12
Stato
Absolutely.
00:32:12
Holmesy
Yeah, very, very keen to see...
00:32:13
Lew
And you could also say that, you know, cherry owners are probably ahead at the moment and there's going to be there's going to be rucks that are going to pop their head up that might be super fantasy relevant in other ways, not just scoring, but in terms of cash generation. I know Rowan Marshall is is really low at the moment. I think um we'll probably discuss him a bit later, but a Luke Jackson could be an option and um ah This might put a bad taste in some people's mouths, but Kieran Priggs just keeps going lower and lower and lower. and he's you know
00:32:44
Lew
For the last probably best part of 18 months has been a 90 guy. so um If that turns around, that could present an opportunity too. so um Those are all the things that you need to consider on top of that.
00:32:57
Stato
And he did the same thing last year. He started shockingly slow and second half of the year was quite impressive.
00:33:05
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that. All right, what I thought we'd do is quickly look at some targets that we might potentially be looking at off the buy. So we're going to start with the round 12 buy. So um what have we got? We've got Carlton, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and
Trading During Buy-Rounds
00:33:24
Holmesy
where's the last one? The Bulldogs. So the first one, on it we just touched on Tristan Cherry, so well we won't go there, Lou, but...
00:33:30
Holmesy
Three targets I've got here. we're We're really looking them to be a top eight mid for the rest of the year, trading them in and and not thinking twice. So Bont priced at 110, Butters at 106, and I've put Walsh there at 99 as I think he'll he'll find some form. So out of these players, talk us through thoughts.
00:33:49
Lew
Well, I mean, the Bont is the Bont. He's a fantastic player and he's probably going to go at about the point that he's priced at $110. But the only concern is, that as Stato's just mentioned, is you really want to start completing your side throughout the buyers and on the back end.
00:34:08
Lew
um, come out of that with a full squad. So paying up for a bloke, that's 110. It gets a bit tricky. I think maybe you can hamstring yourself a little bit later in terms of cash, um, in a period of time where we're probably needing it to, to just finish off. And, uh,
00:34:24
Lew
I think that for me, um I'd be hunting for a little bit more value because it's the picks that you... And Nick Dacos is probably a good example on the weekend is plenty of coaches paid up that 110 price tag. And I've got no doubts he's going to go 110 thereabouts for the rest of the year. But when you're paying that,
00:34:46
Lew
um and he dishes up something poor and you lose that immediate cash, it can be a bit of a kick in the guts. And I think sometimes that's where the risk lies. Whereas some of these guys that do have baked in value, you can hide behind that a bit.
00:35:01
Holmesy
So then you're saying you'd be more the more likely to maybe target a Sam Walsh, um maybe even, I think just off the top my head, a Bailey Dales quite cheap. I think he's priced around 88 off the back of some slow scores, but starting to heat up now. Is is that the more of the area you're looking to target, Luke?
00:35:18
Lew
That's where I'd like to be shopping in ideally. They still have to pass the eye test and be prominent within that side in terms of their role. But I think yeah you you're you're never going to go wrong if you're if you're hunting for value from a player that you can build a solid narrative that they're actually going to improve. And that might just be an injury earlier on in the year or the role was flicked around and he's gone back in. or um yeah There can be craziness in terms of how the scoring works, a tag that you didn't um see coming. So, yeah, I think you can build a narrative for some of these value guys.
00:35:55
Lew
Better than what, you know, when you're 110, you can probably build a better narrative for why they might go below that week to week sometimes.
00:36:03
Stato
Can I just mention, gents, sort of the thing that I'm just sitting here looking at, and we were talking about the the cherry model. I think round 12, because it gets followed by two-game by two-team by the following week, maybe a round where you can do some something sideways.
00:36:25
Stato
So using that as an example, if you brought Cherry in and give you 150 against Richmond, sorry um which which we know that they can give some good scores um for Ruckman, that week that Cherry's got the buy and you are searching for how to use those six um trades over that two weeks is the potential one that you can go down to Marshall for one week and bring back in um Cherry.
00:36:57
Holmesy
Yeah, it's something i've I've always toyed with during the buy rounds. its I don't know, without without Cherry for so far this year and and getting him in now and then and then trading him out in two weeks, I think I'd feel a little bit nervous doing that, knowing that maybe potentially I can't get him back in if I have some injuries or or whatever But yeah, don't hate the the idea. It's always something I've thought about with the Rucks data. I know you used to love trying to get the two playing Rucks each week and wasn't always viable with, especially this year, we we haven't had a playing R3 unless coaches went archer-reed who hasn't been scoring anyway. But yeah, what do you think, Luke?
00:37:31
Lew
No, I'm definitely picking up what Stato's saying. That's um quite astute, I think. And I don't think Sherry's the one that I'd be doing it with just because of how good we know he is. But, you know, a couple of blokes we already mentioned in a Daniel and a Chera.
00:37:46
Lew
um Potentially you go down on a bit of a fattened rookie and you go sideways on those two players into some premiums. so um Could be a wicked way to play that particular buy.
00:37:58
Holmesy
Yes, especially if your team's quite well set up. Maybe you've only got the three rookies on field, which is a you know as Zach Reed, Levi Ashcroft, and and you get one of those off and all of a sudden, there's no you don't have to get them off just yet.
00:38:10
Holmesy
You've got six rounds or five rounds to get them off. And as long as you've got cash to do that by round 17, then you're all good to go. Harmi, I'll...
00:38:17
Lew
And you you can take some risks during the buyers because you can hide behind that best 18. So, you know, some of those mid prices, they're so valuable during that period of time because you can essentially take one of them down to a rookie and then use the change left over to really improve your side, hiding behind that best 18.
00:38:36
Lew
Whereas, you know, best 22, sometimes your bum starts to show a little bit if you get some poor rookie scores and that can be um sort of the be or end all of your week sometimes.
00:38:40
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
Player Analysis: Saints and Sydney Prospects
00:38:47
Holmesy
Harmi, I'll go to round 13 now for you with Saints and Frio, and I'm going to throw you a trio of Saints players. So Nassaya Wanganeen-Millerah, Jack Sinclair, and Jack Steele.
00:39:00
Holmesy
Now, Nassaya's clearly been the better fantasy player for the year so far, priced at 105 and going at 105. But Jack Sinclair and Jack Steele, both top six, top eight in the past, we know what they can do. do those two players interest you at all? and And should we be shopping in those areas rather than paying up for an assire?
00:39:20
Jon Harmey
ah Jack Sinclair certainly does. If I had a choice of Sinclair at 95 and Wangliela at 105, I'd definitely be going with Sinclair. Jack Steele um just hasn't looked quite right at times this season.
00:39:38
Jon Harmey
And I guess priced at 96. I mean, he's getting cheap, but I think there are probably other options that are better.
00:39:46
Holmesy
That's interesting, Lou. I'll throw to you just with the Jack Sinclair call because I actually, I see it a bit differently. I know what I think Jack Sinclair's value, but I think the baton's been passed. I think the size clearly the big ball winner back there now. They look to give it to him at every opportunity. And I think Sinclair's, his role's kind of up and down. He's a bit forward. He's a bit defense. He's a bit mid.
00:39:47
Lew
What's...
00:40:09
Holmesy
um He doesn't seem to be hunting the ball as much as he used to. And we know that Saints have kind of dropped their transition scoring a bit. Is Jack Sinclair going to be a a top six in value or you know outside of that Richmond game, he he's really been that sort of 90 to 95 guy?
00:40:25
Lew
Well, that was yeah what I was basically going to say. I'm not sure what I'm purchasing with Jack Sinclair at the moment. He's he's a gun player and um I'm not expecting him to fall off a cliff in terms of fantasy scoring by any means. And I'm sure he'll pop some nice scores, but...
00:40:41
Lew
it's It's so hard to to score consistently in fantasy when the rolls are inconsistent and he seems to be thrown around here, there, everywhere at the moment. And yeah, even though that price tag is quite nice, it might actually reflect more of a fairer price tag than than the value um you know I'm not convinced that he's going to go back to the sort of 102, 103 that we've seen in previous years.
00:41:05
Lew
But if you see the switch, if you see the role change, or if you see a role in general, please let me know because I think he's going to be a ripper pick if that were the case.
00:41:16
Holmesy
Yeah, might be a bit of fool's gold this week against the Eagles as well. He might have a good game, but we do know that defenders have actually been struggling against the Eagles at Optus Stadium this year. So watch this space on that game.
00:41:29
Lew
I was just going to say on Steel, sorry, real quick, is he now the number two tag target behind Jack McRae?
00:41:29
Holmesy
Lou, round 14. I think...
00:41:36
Lew
And is that where we can sort of hang hat on in terms of some improvement? He'd come home with, what, 112 average in the second half of 2024, went 107 for the year, priced at 96.
00:41:42
Holmesy
i think
00:41:50
Lew
um He's probably worth a bit of consideration, isn't he?
00:41:55
Holmesy
Surely at some stage, teams are going to start to put more attention into Nassaya than they are to so the midfielders, right? Are teams really tagging Jack Steele? I know we've seen some teams go to Jack McRae.
00:42:07
Holmesy
But yeah, Stater, I bet you wouldn't have thought that was going to be the case that Jack McRae would actually start getting tagged again after what you saw last year. But it did it did happen.
00:42:16
Stato
Ridiculous.
00:42:17
Holmesy
yet He had a few monster games and and some teams went to him. So um yeah, Lou, I don't think they're tagging Jack Steele. I think... Unfortunately, my my thoughts on Jack's deal, I think his ceiling's probably a 105. I think those marks are being eaten up now and he's no longer that guy that's going to have the you know eight tackles, eight marks. If you look at his two last tons, they've been built on the back of 11 tackles and nine tackles. So if there's some games where he he's not quite tackling, I think you know there's 80s and 90s that are probably around the corner.
00:42:48
Holmesy
um But yeah, no doubt 940 is cheap for him. And if he can replicate what he's done in the past, Not the 120, but the 105 to 110 is definitely value and and he's got the good buy round. But let's go round 14 now, Lou. So we've got Collingwood, Gold Coast, Sydney and Richmond.
00:43:04
Holmesy
I suppose the first one I want to touch on is Noah Anderson. um Definitely down on what he started at. So he's priced at 97 and he's even further on the way down. From his price, you'd really want him to be a 105-plus player and and pushing the top eights. Do you think that the dimmer system means that he's just going to be more of that middling guy?
00:43:25
Lew
Yeah, I think it might be the dimmer system we saw at the Tigers over a massive length of time that outside of just an absolute superstar of the game and Dustin Martin, and even then he only did it essentially for one to two seasons.
00:43:40
Lew
It's just not a game style that really facilitates fantasy scoring outside of maybe, you know, a half back, which we're probably seeing a little bit in a John Noble and and to some respects, Daniel Rioli. So,
00:43:53
Lew
I'm seeing this maybe as the beginning of a trend that Anderson's ceiling's just been capped a little bit and he's going to be a little bit more impactful as a player ah for me. So, and it's probably ringing true throughout that whole side. If you look at the Gold Coast scoring for some of their guns in that, in that team. So yeah, I'll,
00:44:15
Lew
I'm not liking Noah Anderson. and I think he might be one that there'll be plenty of coaches that sort of get, you know, sucked into that one. And, you know, they might be right, but I'd probably advise going against him at this stage, certainly priced at $97.
00:44:32
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that one, Lou. Albeit though, if you if you get him cheap and he has a couple of ceiling scores, then you are well on your way like we know he can. Quickly, Josh Dacos, so not Nick, priced at 94, Lou.
00:44:45
Holmesy
You'd really want some value. Yes, he's cheap, but is he fairly priced at 94 or do you think there's scope for him to push above 100, which you'd really need him to do?
00:44:54
Lew
A couple of weeks ago, probably would have said that's about where he's at. And I think I did on this podcast. um Watching last week, that first quarter, he was phenomenal and just didn't go on with it. So if he can put that together, I can see him nudging that 100 mark.
00:45:12
Lew
um just because he's such a good player. and And we do see a lot of that observable thirst, um as Dossie always liked to say. But ah at 94, I think I would probably um look to spend my cash maybe somewhere else on a player that could be a little bit more consistent.
00:45:32
Holmesy
And Stato, I know you're not watching much footy at the moment, but you are a Sydney man. We've seen quite a drop-off with Sydney this year after the grand final hangover. Isaac Heaney not getting it done in the midfield anymore.
Hawks' Forward Line and Player Struggles
00:45:44
Holmesy
Priced at 88. I think we've only seen two tonnes this year and they've been low tonnes.
00:45:49
Holmesy
What are you thinking with an Isaac Heaney? You're a big advocate of the Brownlow hangover. And although he didn't win the Brownlow, he definitely had a Brownlow-esque season, averaging 105.
00:45:54
Stato
Thank you.
00:46:00
Holmesy
Do you think Heaney's more of a sort of 90 to 95 guy in that Sydney midfield?
00:46:05
Stato
I think he's only ever had one season that has been, you know, one out of the blue. And I think a lot of careers happen like that. He's an absolute jet, but he's going to get a lot of attention, right? So he needs everything perfect. and needs his body perfect. um As you say, it could be a little bit of a great season hangover, but could be just carrying a few little niggles and not having as much of a a great pre-season as the one before.
00:46:29
Stato
But I also think there's an element of There's a lot of good young players going through that midfield. um I think the depth of that squad um is is pretty impressive. So it's hard to just have one person getting all the footy.
00:46:46
Lew
Do you think it's also a bit of a case of he's he's just too good at football, Stato? and you know if the If Isaac Heaney's got 10 touches and maybe a goal or two at quarter time, surely the alarm bells have to be going off in the coach's box because we know what a star he is and you'd be silly not to just plant someone on him for the rest of the game.
00:46:59
Stato
Yep.
00:47:05
Stato
Spot on.
00:47:07
Holmesy
Harmi, we'll quickly go through round 15. There's only one player I want to get your thoughts on here. So round 15, Hawks, Adelaide, Melbourne and Eagles. not terribly relevant. I think Dawson, Rankin, Petrarca at the moment have shown enough to be either a top eight mid or a top six forward. and And maybe by round 15, they might have dropped a little bit and you can get them at ah a better price. But one player I'm keen to get your thoughts on who has dropped off the face of the earth this year, Dylan Moore, priced at 71.
00:47:37
Holmesy
tactically subbed two weeks ago for 40. What are your thoughts here? Are Hawthorne just not playing well enough to get in the ball? Is he playing more of a selfless forward of the ball role?
00:47:48
Holmesy
Could you ever look at a Dylan Moore or do you need to see it turn around first?
00:47:52
Jon Harmey
I think the Hawks forward line hasn't been going particularly well full stop, which is probably influencing that. I mean, he had a game about three rounds ago where he played through midfield and scored okay.
00:48:07
Jon Harmey
I'll throw one back to you then, mate. Everyone's going to be talking up Matthias Philippe this week about it being a great trade-in option. He's priced at $662,000.
00:48:18
Jon Harmey
six hundred and sixty two thousand Dylan Moore is currently priced at 695,000. equivalent price. would you rather have? so equivalent price who would you rather have
00:48:31
Holmesy
Oh, that's a tough one.
00:48:32
Lew
I'm Philippou comfortably too. Yeah, i'll think...
00:48:36
Holmesy
If at any point, you if you see a midfield role at any point, like those CBAs start coming back because he starts getting fitness, then I think it's Philippo every day of the week with what we've seen from Dylan Moore.
00:48:36
Lew
yeah
00:48:47
Holmesy
But that's crazy. the start of the season, you would have said Dylan Moore's the safer 90 guy and that Philippo, yes, he has the potential to maybe go there, but you wouldn't have said that that was a given knowing that you've got Steele, McRae, Marshall, all 100-plus averaging players in the midfield where where he's going into.
00:49:03
Holmesy
What do you think, Harmi?
00:49:06
Jon Harmey
I'm not sure, to be honest. Actually, I don't mind the idea of Dylan Moore as a point of difference there because, I mean, well, Philippa on the weekend, what did he score? 75 something? Let's have a look.
00:49:18
Jon Harmey
He scored 73.
00:49:19
Holmesy
73, I think.
00:49:21
Jon Harmey
He had two goals in that, didn't he? So I wouldn't say that's a smashing score.
00:49:27
Lew
I think he's just got too many um people eating into his scoring as that high half forward sort of player. you know You've got Nico Watson who who's come on again, Connor McDonald who keeps on improving, Jack Ginevan pushes really high up the ground um and obviously we know when they're fully fit, Hawks have a ah pretty stacked midfield in there. So...
00:49:49
Lew
um ah can Can Dylan Moore just be a role player now? I think he's a pretty good one at that. So he might be one that's just a decent player, but maybe from a fantasy perspective, it's it might be over.
00:50:02
Lew
And and yeah, ah don't know.
00:50:06
Holmesy
Yep, agree with that, Lou.
00:50:06
Lew
Do you have any thoughts on that or...
00:50:07
Holmesy
I think...
00:50:10
Holmesy
I think you' just you'd you'd want to see it turn around. I think Dylan Moore, he had a, what, he went, what is it, 95 post-buy last year or or something around that mark, but Hawks were flying.
00:50:22
Holmesy
They're not flying at the moment. As Stato said, it's very hard to play good AFL footy week in, week out, and and when your team's not going that well, it's going to be hard for those forwards to score. You're you're seeing it with a Connor Mack as well. He's not anywhere near what he was putting up last year, um and and the Hawks' midfield aren't scoring that well, Lou.
00:50:40
Lew
It's also the ball use. I think they're looking very central and they're trying to get it into the hands of some of their best ball uses, like ah like a James Sicily and ah and a Carl Amon, a Jarman Impey streaming up through the middle of the ground. And ah it's hard to get kicks at at that high half forward roll when your key forwards are in good form too and you've got a couple of small forwards that are doing some damage there. So I think he's just getting a little bit lost.
00:51:06
Holmesy
Hawk ball at its finest. Luke, quickly, last round, 16 by. So we probably want to be targeting these players or these players from these teams now so that we've got a good seven rounds out of them before they have their by.
00:51:18
Holmesy
So you've got Zorko, Merritt, and Tom Green at the moment that are either top eight mids or top six
Max Holmes and Geelong's Prospects
00:51:24
Holmesy
forwards. But the one I want to get your thoughts on because he's been in my team and he's been a nervous zone, but you're keen on him.
00:51:31
Holmesy
Max Holmes, priced at 92, is probably the definition of value, knowing that he's got a high ceiling and and a run opening up soon. You're keen this week. Talk us through Max Holmes.
00:51:42
Lew
I was keen at the start of the year too so it's just a guy who's presented who's now cheaper than what he started at um by nearly about 80k we we know what he's capable of he's shown ceiling on multiple occasions already unfortunately it looks like there's a bit of a flaw um you might have to take the good with the bad with Max Holmes but I think you can hide behind the ah the fixture that he's got coming I think he's got Richmond twice to to finish the year and a couple of really nice matchups in there too.
00:52:13
Lew
ah Geelong are going to keep building towards finals and he's going to be a massive part of that. I think yeah that 60, was it 68 point quarter, Holmesy? that That's great.
00:52:23
Holmesy
No, that was super clutch. It was 50 AFL fantasy, which was still monstrous.
00:52:23
Jon Harmey
well
00:52:28
Lew
50 it's still quite frightening isn't it so if he can put that together um across four quarters i can see some some really large scoring from max holmes and there might be some rough weeks where that floor does reveal itself but that's you know the volatility of a player like that sometimes if you can land somewhere in the middle hoping fingers crossed that's 95 to 100 then uh it'll be a very nice zone and you know there's not Too many opportunities you get to grab sort of five to 10 points upside this time of year from ah top six defender.
00:53:01
Holmesy
Yeah, the one thing I will say is he hasn't looked fit the last couple of weeks, but he definitely looked back to... Running well on the weekend, which was good, and and running well in that last quarter, which shows that you know fitness isn't the issue.
00:53:14
Holmesy
Baz has definitely been an influence. like Baz is so dominant at the moment, and and Baz isn't one to just go sideways and slow. Baz gets it, and he just runs forward, breaks the stoppage, and and bombs it long. So maybe there is a few points there in those games that he's not getting because he's not getting used because Baz is so dominant. But yeah, priced at 92%.
00:53:33
Holmesy
We knew it was going to turn around. We just hopefully want to see it be a little bit more consistent moving forward. But definitely value. There's just a few players I want to talk about quickly before we bang out some questions to finish. i'm mindful of time knowing that Stato's got to get out of here. But a few underpriced players that we've spoken about. Filippo, we've been through, so we're not going to go there. But Lou, I want a quick like or dislike on these players.
00:53:57
Holmesy
The first one, Kitty Coleman. We spoke about it last week. Priced at 53. He's building form in the VFL. Is he definitely someone that we could look at during the buys if he breaks back into that 22?
00:54:09
Lew
Absolutely, yeah. He should be the poster boy for it. Just with that round 16 buy, he could be one that we jump on early and and ride throughout. I'd like to see one game from him because I'm not convinced that he's not going to be loaded in as the sub or potentially the sub out. Just with how valuable I think Brisbane's sort of have him within their side.
00:54:31
Lew
It's going to be interesting what role he plays and if that chips into a bit of Dane Zorko who's priced at 106 and a popular option too.
Role Changes and Performance Considerations
00:54:40
Holmesy
Now, Stato, I'm actually going to give this one to you because I want some raw thoughts here. Showdown on the weekend. Myles Bergman has been playing in defense all year.
00:54:52
Holmesy
They decide to throw him into the midfield to tag Jordan Dawson. Bergman has eight tackles, 23 touches, and puts up a 112, 115, somewhere around there, and and holds Jordan Dawson to 11 touches 14 touches and 78.
00:55:08
Holmesy
Is this a move that you think off the back of a performance like that is something that they could stick or do you think it's more of a horses for courses type situation? They had the big body midfielder that they wanted to tag in a showdown and and it's too volatile. What do you think? He's priced at 67.
00:55:25
Stato
It'll be horses for courses, but of of course, great success in a role like this means it's more likely to be repeated at some stage. But just because you you get the right matchup and you you think the the body size and athletic ability of of Bergman, as we know, is pretty good and probably been wasted in defence a little bit over the years,
00:55:48
Stato
um that um he may have been just the best matchup for Dawson and may not work with um other p players. um I probably wouldn't go there, but um if he's on the waiver wire in a draft squad, I'll be jumping on very quickly.
00:56:08
Holmesy
Harmy, James Peatling, now priced at 81. Didn't have the role early in the year, but Matt Crouch out four to six. He's now getting 70% CBAs and and he's gone very big in his last couple of games.
00:56:21
Holmesy
In the forward line, James Peatling, you see someone you could consider maybe as a ah sideways from a Caleb Daniel or getting up to to get a ah ah rookie off field. What do you think with Peatling?
00:56:34
Jon Harmey
I think he's just to be expensive. i mean seven hundred and ninety seven thousand I mean, you'd be swapping Daniels sideways to Peatling. i'm just I just don't think it's the smash player that's you know um this going to really give us a boost up the rankings.
00:56:52
Jon Harmey
I can't see him being 100 guy based on this year's form and he's currently priced at 80. I'm just not sure if that's really the right move for us, mate.
00:57:00
Lew
can Can we base it on the form of the last two weeks since the roles changed and Matt Crouch has exited that midfield with injury though? Because we did see at the Giants when he got 60% CBAs, he was able to go at a 99 clip and...
00:57:15
Lew
understand it's a different side, but are we maybe seeing what some coaches expected to see from James Peatling as a starting pick um nine, 10 weeks ago? um yeah um sort of see the upside in this pick and it might be a nice one as a forward to to use throughout the bias.
00:57:34
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I don't i don't hate it. I don't think I'll go there myself, but Harmi, think of this. you trade You go sideways to Peatling from Daniel. if If Daniel loses 40K and Peatling makes 40K, you're 80K up straight away.
00:57:34
Jon Harmey
Yeah, possibly, mate.
00:57:49
Holmesy
And you know that's that's some good value. I'm not saying I'm going to do it, but I definitely think it's one to look at. It would have been much better to do it last week or the week before, admittedly. um But I don't think it's... um Yeah, I think it's still an option. Lou, last one you put on the run sheet. Sorry, Harmi. Changuth, Jiath.
00:58:07
Holmesy
Talk us through that.
00:58:09
Lew
ah just ah I've seen plenty of other coaches talk about him.
Rookie Trading Strategies
00:58:13
Lew
I'll be honest, I haven't looked into him too much, but I have been a GF owner in the past, and he he can put together a couple of nice scores in a row when the Hawks choose to use him.
00:58:24
Lew
um I just keep an eye on that role. I wouldn't talk anybody out of it, because he does have that 12 break even that you can hide behind, and he does have quite a bit of a ceiling, but... um Yeah, that that one is it it could be like a serious sort of hat-winning pick if um if someone can get a proper read on on GF because he has been playing that sort of half-back role and I think Weddle has been pushing up a little bit higher, almost playing that Mr. Fix-It guy for him. So if if that's the hole he's filling...
00:58:56
Lew
I don't mind it as a bit of a punt and maybe that's the guy that if you've got a Caleb Daniel you you do get creative with you hide behind the break even you generate a bit of cash and maybe with that cash generated from Daniel down to GF you can do something a little bit funky and and improve your side that way but mean you were looking at GF weren't you?
00:59:17
Jon Harmey
No, he's not somebody I'd be looking at, mate. 61 points. 61, that's probably well-priced for him.
00:59:26
Holmesy
about what Lockie Neal scored on the weekend, wasn't it, Harmy?
00:59:31
Jon Harmey
No, no, no. You would have cost yourself two points if you went and chatted.
00:59:34
Lew
ah Shannon Neal almost outscored him, actually.
00:59:40
Holmesy
All right, lads. Let's quickly bank through some of these questions and and get out of here. Lou, I'll start with you. This one's from Hawker. Does he get rid of two red dots for a Simpson El Hawley, so almost the double downgrade, or does he go one up, one down to get a Rookin and a Philippou type? what do you think there?
00:59:56
Lew
Just go the one up, one down at least this week. I'm not fully convinced that Simpson and El Hawley are going to avoid that vest. no I think it's just ah it's a total waste of a week if if you're trading two red dots to possibly two red dots or even worse, two pink dots. So i see what he's trying to go for there. just Maybe I'd just go the one up, one down and and get on to Philippou nice and early.
01:00:23
Holmesy
Harmi, this one's for you. It's from JM. Is Luke Jackson an elite three-game play until they're by? Surely for her to give Darcy the next three off to get right. I think they've got GWS and Port in their next two, and then I'm not sure what that third game is, but two of the easiest ruck matchups going around.
01:00:43
Holmesy
um You can play you could play Jackson in the ruck if you've got a Cherry in round 12 or even a Tom DeConing. I think he's about 850, 860. fifty eight sixty So you're looking at a ah mid 80s type price tag. what do you think about Luke Jackson?
01:00:43
Lew
Witzy for the third.
01:00:58
Jon Harmey
Yeah, 8.50. um And Darcy went out pretty early in that game, didn't he? And this is his knee. He's always got a bloody knee injury. like darcy But I guess we'll find out tomorrow. I think the injury news comes out tomorrow night, is it?
01:01:12
Jon Harmey
So we'll get an idea of how long Darcy is out for. But priced at $92,000, $850,000. I think that Jackson could be a a good play as the number one ruck at Freo. I can't see him bringing um bringing that other ruck come back in after the start season.
01:01:34
Lew
I think it's such a nice play, especially if you're a De Koning owner. It just feels like a clean clean sort of break there throughout the buyers and you can turn Tom De Koning into to essentially any Uber premium elsewhere using a bit of DPP.
01:01:49
Lew
If I was a Tom De Koning owner, I'd be seriously considering that move. I think it could be very advantageous through the buyers.
01:01:58
Holmesy
Stato, I'm actually going to give you this one. It's from Taser, just for some raw thoughts again.
Scoring Fluctuations and Player Comparisons
01:02:03
Holmesy
Is Nick Dacos just Lockie Neal 2.0 from a fantasy sense? Will score great if he doesn't get tagged, but attracts attention too often to be a consistent 110 plus uber premium.
01:02:15
Stato
Nick Dacos, computer says yes. Lockie Neal, computer says no.
01:02:23
Lew
I'll just piggyback onto that because I was speaking to Taser during the week and he did come up with some nice numbers. I don't think it's quite that bad. I think Nick Dacos is an absolute star and he'll bounce back and go 110.
01:02:37
Lew
So I wouldn't overthink it, but just um look look, he did dig into the stats and I didn't mind this as a bit of a call. So this season, GWS Bedford tag, 60. Port Drew tag, 95. Doggies no tag, 136.
01:02:50
Lew
one thirty six Carlton Hewitt tag, 76. Swans, he broke the Jordan tag for a 136. Brisbane, no tag, 131. Essendon, no tag, 120.
01:03:01
Lew
Geelong tag, 92. Wagner for Frio tag, 67. So he is probably dealing um with more taggers than he has in the past.
01:03:10
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
01:03:11
Lew
um But at the same time, when that tagging isn't in vogue in the particular matchup, he's definitely filling in. So think he's maybe a bit more volatile than what we're used to in previous years. But the ceiling is just frighteningly large.
01:03:29
Holmesy
Louis, I'll stay with you. This one's from Jamie Quinn. Is Lindsay and Cleary to El Hawley and Marek still a tick off if Marek is the best upgrade with the cash available? So you're still a Marek owner.
01:03:40
Holmesy
Is it too late for Marek now off the back of a ton and a 90?
01:03:44
Holmesy
Is there value there or do you look elsewhere?
01:03:44
Lew
yeah Yeah, it's too late.
01:03:47
Lew
It's too late, unfortunately. I think um you're matching... Anybody who's a marriage owner is is doing well off the back of that particular pick in their side, and I think um those owners are probably looking to jump off in the next couple of weeks because...
01:04:04
Lew
As an owner, I can tell you he does go missing and he he does capitalize on some big quarters, but I think it's a bit of a symptom of playing in a bit of a poorer side. And for me, that's enough not to target a marriage. And he's not going to be top six. He's not even going to be probably top 15 or even 20. So for that reason alone, he's not going to make too much cash from here.
01:04:28
Lew
i wouldn't be entertaining that one.
01:04:32
Holmesy
Harmi, this one's from Louis Hawksley. Love your work, fellas. Thank you Sitting just outside the top 1,000, having dropped out two weeks ago, is Nick Martin a must-have with the DPP?
01:04:43
Holmesy
So his scoring does seem to fluctuate, but time on ground and roll looked back this week, priced at 9.88, which is probably around 100, I think, that give give or take.
01:04:53
Holmesy
What do you think about Nick Martin?
01:04:56
Jon Harmey
I think that he's a very good player. He's down 100 grand on his starting price, but he's not must-have. If you're saying that he you have to have him in your team at this point, i don't think you do. I mean, he's just um rolled out a few lower scores from memory over the course of the last month too. So brilliant score on the weekend, great player, but I wouldn't say he's must-have at this point.
01:05:18
Holmesy
Louis, last one to finish up. This one's from Eddie.
Fantasy Future Concerns and Reflections
01:05:21
Holmesy
Is there a world where you hold Clary or is he just done? So Stato, just for for perspective, Clary missed the week before with mental health and then he's come back and he's tagged John Newcomb and he's had a 41 this week.
01:05:26
Lew
Thank you.
01:05:35
Holmesy
So he's bleeding cash. Lou, do you have to trade Clary or is there a world where coaches hold?
01:05:41
Lew
No, jump off while you can. hes He's going to plummet in cash. he's He's not in the right headspace for footy, and by the sounds of it, he's already looking towards 2026. So um I'm not convinced that he's going to play every game from from here on in. And last week, as unfortunate as it was um for why he had to miss, I don't think um that's something that just disappears. So...
01:06:04
Lew
Avoid the carnage and just jump off. you've You've made a bit of money off of him. he's He's been an okay player for about six weeks, but yeah, the writing's on the wall there, unfortunately.
01:06:15
Holmesy
Beautiful. thanks ah Thanks, lads, for jumping on another bumper episode. But we we need one final sign-off from Stato because we've loved having you back, but we never know when we're going to hear that voice of yours again. So why don't you just give us that some closing thoughts for the listeners?
01:06:31
Stato
Oh, look, just just enjoy it. um I played the game for a long time, couple of decades, um and really did enjoy it. But um my time's over and I will say that the the actual break from it's been really refreshing. I think the the bigger break from most of the social media stuff, including...
01:06:49
Stato
Deleting my Twitter account is actually really enjoyable. I used to, do the first thing I used to do was um press that little X button um to have a look what was going on in the world.
01:07:00
Stato
um And that's a great relief that I'm not worrying about that all the time. But um obviously wish everyone ah really well. i hope they enjoy the game. um Louis, rooting for you to to make sure you get a cap.
01:07:12
Stato
um so we can um throw that in Dossie's face. That'll be the absolute joy. um But look, love to hear your your voice, boys. It's ah it's great. And look, I'll come back at the near the end of the season when you're when you're celebrating the um the problems, the woes, the the hits, the misses, and hopefully we're celebrating a couple of caps within your team.
01:07:36
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I think if if Lou wins a hat, which he is, we'll definitely have to try and call up Rupert Murdoch and give Dossie a one pass to come back on the podcast ah so that we can all all reminisce like the good days.
01:07:46
Stato
Yeah, good idea.
01:07:49
Holmesy
But thanks again, Stato, Lou, Harmy. For everyone else, make sure you're following us on Twitter at PodPodAFL. Make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever wherever you listen to your content.
01:08:01
Holmesy
We'll be back with another episode next Monday. But for everyone else, have a good weekend and we'll speak to you soon.