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Brisbane Lions AFL Fantasy 2024 team preview | #PODPOD
2.7k Plays8 months ago
The Brisbane Lions fell agonisingly short of taking the ultimate glory in 2023, but from an AFL Fantasy perspective, they cause some agony of their own for fantasy coaches.
Only one player (Josh Dunkley) averaged over 100 at the Lions, while the reigning Brownlow Medalist averaged sub-100 despite playing an intrinsic role in the dominant Lions engine room.
The lads discuss the gross early Lions bye, plus touch on all the relevant players, including Keidean Coleman, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage, Lachie Neale, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, and much more!
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Transcript
Brisbane Lions 2023 Performance Overview
00:00:15
Speaker
Yes welcome again to the Pod Pod. It's the boy Dossie here talking all things AFL fantasy and we are getting through our team previews of course talking about the Brisbane Lions. Joining me as always on all these team preview podcasts I have some astute fantasy coaches
00:00:39
Speaker
And I've got two, two time top 10 finishes in Kyle Holmes and John Harmy. I'm also joined by the OG of the Pod Pod Louie, a regular in that top 1000. Going to get through the team numbers for Brisbane in our second last team preview before we start talking about a few players here. So let's talk about the Brisbane Lions from 2023.
00:01:03
Speaker
Second on the ladder falling just short as we know in the grand final, an awesome grand final it was to watch but four points shy unfortunately for Lions fans. Twelfth though for fantasy scoring wasn't what we wanted to see from the Lions including a few premiums probably not getting to the lofty heights we may have thought they would. Twelfth overall for fantasy scoring.
00:01:25
Speaker
That was number one though for total clearances and center clearances. They liked getting it out of the midfield nice and quick. They were second for stoppage clearances as well just behind the Bulldogs. So a lot of midfield work getting their game plan going.
00:01:41
Speaker
Third for inside 50s, second for marks inside 50s, third for total marks, which you would have thought would be an okay game plan, and fourth, four meters gain per disposal. But this is where fantasy coaches were hurt. 17th overall for disposals and 18th for tackles.
Trades and Team Changes
00:02:00
Speaker
So that's where the Brisbane Lions really weren't getting their fantasy scoring.
00:02:04
Speaker
They were agonizingly close to glory though, Hami. The game plan clearly holds up. Is it just going to be more of the same for the Lions this year? Yeah, we said they got a heap of touches though, didn't you? So, sorry, heap of clearances, but not that many disposals. So they'll get the kick in the middle straight into their forward line where they must be by the sounds of things there. So yeah, I mean, do they be pretty happy with that means that those players that are on the outside probably weren't getting much of a touch and
00:02:32
Speaker
and yeah, weren't getting much uncontested possession. So that would make sense because remember, McClugage was pretty quiet early and it wasn't until he came into those CBAs till his scoring lifted again. So yeah, no interesting stuff there, mate.
00:02:47
Speaker
All right, let's check out the trade period for the Lions and see what they changed in the off season. The trade-ins Tom Douday coming across from Adelaide. I think he's still going to be missing a little bit of the early parts of the season coming back from his injury
Fantasy Challenges and Player Potential
00:03:02
Speaker
though.
00:03:02
Speaker
and Brandon Ryan coming across from Hawthorne. The outs, Tom Fullerton heading over to Melbourne, Jack Gunston going back to Hawthorne. Paul Rees, the beast, Mathison getting delisted there. The, what was it? The barometer. That's right. Always a favorite of Brisbane fans. Marcus Adams retiring, Nikai Cockatoo retiring, and Daniel Rich.
00:03:25
Speaker
the big one there, had a massive career for the Brisbane Lions, but wasn't there towards the back half of that year anyway. Dropping himself in a newsworthy headline last year. The buy round. Let's discuss the buy round with our buy round expert, Holmsey, filling in for the statesman who's taking a little hiatus on these last few podcasts here. They have the opening round buy, meaning they've got a very early buy, round two and then round 12, Holmsey.
00:03:55
Speaker
Yeah, in terms of buy rounds for Brisbane, it doesn't really get much worse in terms of having that round two buy. So you're only going to get them scoring for one round before they're off on their buy. And then they also have that round 12 buy, which means in terms of you'll be able to get them off their buy, which would be pretty good in terms of looking to target those players in rounds 13, 14 and 15.
00:04:16
Speaker
But in terms of having them from the start, it's a little bit more of an early buy around, although it seems at the moment that the popular players in the pre-season have their buys in round 15 and 14. So that's not too bad from that point of view. But yeah, the fact that they're missing two games out of the first 12, it makes it a little bit tricky when looking to start them initially.
00:04:37
Speaker
Let's look at a player that very many coaches are keen to start. There's only one popular pick over 10% owned to start the season. Right now, of course, for the Brisbane Lions, Caden Coleman, Louis, $628,000. He's 27% owned right now by eager coaches following what was an absolutely mammoth
00:05:01
Speaker
display in the grand final. 26 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles. He had 127 for Brisbane. No other Brisbane line cracked the ton. It was an amazing display on the big stage.
00:05:14
Speaker
Yeah, 27% really surprises me, not just only given the bye, but what this guy was able to do sort of in season, I do just have this feeling that that grand final, plenty of eyes on it, just made fantasy coaches sit up and watch a little bit and it was a fantastic first half. I think he toned up by half time.
00:05:34
Speaker
despite actually only going at 127 so it does suggest that he can go missing a little bit and that's kind of where my concern really lies when I do look at what is done during the season and some of his floor games like we're talking 48 49 48 68 years so that's sort of where my concern is if that starts that way then you'd immediately lose money and you're probably trading out at the buy anyway so
00:06:02
Speaker
I've seen that there's been a little bit of conjecture that Daniel Rich out may benefit Kitty Coleman, but we have to remember that Daniel Rich didn't actually play a lot of footy last year.
Key Player Analysis: Dunkley and Neal
00:06:14
Speaker
I think the sort of comeuppance of a bloke like Conor McKenna and even Ryan Lester towards the end of the season really came on like others didn't expect that
00:06:24
Speaker
it kind of hurts him in season so for me he seems like more of a quality over quantity guy and I don't think the addition of Conor McKenna last season should be understated because and I feel like I've mentioned this plenty that game is sort of transitioning towards a faster game style and Conor McKenna is that guy that can really run and gun it out of defence.
00:06:48
Speaker
Do you have any different thoughts on for me I actually owned kitty common last year during his late season run I was struggling to find you know I never filled my backline last year which was typical of my horrid season but I was looking for a cheaper option late in the season.
00:07:05
Speaker
He fit the bill when he actually did average 89 in his last five and was pretty solid on the run home. And it looked like he just something clicked that was different. Obviously the role, as he said, Lou, the role wasn't really too impeded by Daniel Rich. He wasn't really in the pitcher, but Kitty Coleman still had a really strong back half of the season.
00:07:23
Speaker
Yeah, he did. I think I actually traded him in a few weeks before you, mate. I had him for quite a period last year, but that early buy and the floor, I'm not that inclined to go with him this year, and I'm very surprised about the ownership. I'm not sure what's with some of these ownership stats. I'll probably question them.
00:07:48
Speaker
Yeah, look, I think he's quite a good player and the Lions like the ball in his hands coming out of the back line. They kind of try and use him, but as soon as he has somebody standing next to him, that sort of cheap outlet mark kick, he's gone. So yeah, I'm just sort of not in love with the idea of starting him this season.
00:08:08
Speaker
We've focused on the floor a little bit here but it's the ceiling as well that concerns me so 111 which he did this season was within the season his highest ever fantasy score and obviously exceeded that in the grand final but I sort of like to see a little bit more than that I would have thought being the kick mark player that he is that he might have had a few ceiling games in there but that's why I sort of did say like it feels like it is quality over quantity for Coleman and
00:08:35
Speaker
I think that's how Brisbane can play their best footy as well and clearly it worked. I know they didn't win the flag but he was able to really cut up the opposition in that final series and it wasn't off the back of finding a bunch of the ball. It was off the back of a lot of kicks, not a lot of handballs, a few marks in there but don't find it as sustainable as what I'd like it to be.
00:08:59
Speaker
I will move on to the top three averaging players from last year and you know whether or not we decide we want to talk about these premiums as starting options if you're just going to ignore that by I think I think we're all in the same page in that these guys were really probably going to be looking at after their by if at all so that's probably what we're going to be talking about.
00:09:18
Speaker
from our perspective anyway on the next few players. But number one averaging player for Brisbane last year was Josh Dunkley. 104, probably a little bit lower than we may be expected, Homsey. But coming into a sort of a lower fantasy friendly scoring team, it's maybe a little bit not surprising.
00:09:37
Speaker
Yeah, look, the numbers are a little bit misleading though. I think he was going at 108, 109 before he had his calf injury that in the middle of the year. And from memory, I'm pretty sure that calf injury scored a 75, but he had that ticked off at halftime. So that was on track for another monster too.
00:09:52
Speaker
He, he plays a fantastic role in that system where he's the, he's the grunt in the middle. He applies all that tackle pressure. There's plenty of stoppage points, but the Josh Dunkley that we know also gets involved in transition as well. So he's someone that I do expect to push top eight numbers. If he, if he has a full run at it, he's, he's always had these patches of 120 plus scoring. Um, and it's, you know, if you can put it together for a full season, he could be absolutely anything. He just always seems to have these weird little injuries in season and
00:10:21
Speaker
The evidence says that he comes back a little bit hard from them, so he struggles to score when he comes back. So with the early buy, he can't touch it, but he's definitely someone that we can look to target at some point throughout the season if he maybe drops a little bit or he is looking to be a top eight mid.
00:10:37
Speaker
Yeah, he even dropped that once. Was it last year he dropped the 170 at one point? Yeah. Okay. He's certainly got the ceiling. I've traded for him in my cape leg last year. So I'm hoping he can bounce back to a, back to a juicy one to plus would be nice at some point. I'll be keeping my on him early season. Locky Neil, 97 average, Louie, 876,000 bucks. The Brown low medal as well.
00:11:02
Speaker
Yeah. And you mentioned the Brown low medal, mate. He won it last season and he went at 97. So he's doing the right things and it's not translating to fantasy. So being a bit of an older player now, I think he's more, I don't want to call him a role player, but I think he knows what his position in the side is now. And he's an absolute jet. I think he led the competition for clearances. He knows what he's good at. He doesn't have to get caught up in that fluff. And there probably are better ball users as well that can sort of get out on the outside. So
00:11:32
Speaker
For me, Locky Neal priced it, I assume 97. Is there just a guy who's probably going to go about the same, I think? Well, a guy that has typically relied on disposals for his score, typically like a 30-33 disposal type guy, and that was 17th of disposals, as we've said a few times. Still managed 97, as you said, still has an amazing role and won the Brown low.
00:11:56
Speaker
Yeah, maybe tough to have a significant upside at that price. Now at third overall average last year for the Lions, Hami is a favorite of mine and he averaged 89 last year. That's way down on what
00:12:20
Speaker
Can do. So, Hami, what do you reckon McLugo can go this year?
00:12:27
Speaker
Oh, that was one of your best, I reckon, Dossie, that song.
Rookie Prospects and Injury Updates
00:12:31
Speaker
That was a bloody good one. Look, without Ashcrafting the team until halfway through the season, there's a good chance that he could start on fire, hey, because, I mean, they're not going to put Zorko back in there, so it's probably Barry or McClugage that gets the
00:12:52
Speaker
the larger proportion of CBAs. So, yeah, he's probably not a bad one to start the season. I think he was picked three behind McGraw and Taranto. But he's as good as those guys. He's a very good player. So, yeah, I can see him in the midfield and with sort of big clock early on and off to a hot start.
00:13:18
Speaker
that Ashcroft injury is actually really encouraging as well because looking at some of their CBA's here, Locky Neil was at a whopping 87%, Josh Dunkley at 80% and then it drops down to Will Ashcroft himself at 44. So Hugh McLuggage 42% did have that, he did start to improve towards the back end of the season obviously coinciding with
00:13:41
Speaker
Will Ashcroft going down? But I think one of the largest points here is that it's a contract year and we love that in fantasy. Sometimes they just switch it on a little bit more. So it'll be interesting to see where Hugh McClugage sits, but I'm expecting those CBAs to spike quite a bit.
00:13:57
Speaker
Very quick comment, Holmsey. Could you go the cheeky zag? If Sam Walsh has a little bit of a down opening round and the clugo goes for the 130, could you maybe switch your plans and, you know, with Walsh price at 94, clugage price to 89, could you maybe rotate that plan around?
00:14:16
Speaker
Nah, look, Doss, I don't think you can purely based off those stats you ratted off to start the podcast, mate. They're one of the lowest disposal sides in the game. They're high stoppage, low transition. Sorry, Omsi, you just got drowned there, mate. Sorry about that. I think he'll be value on his 87 price tag. I think he could potentially get off to a hot start, which means his price would spike a little bit, but I can't see him being
00:14:45
Speaker
105 plus and being someone we can hold for a long, long period of time. Not in that system. He's a, he's a great player. If locky meal was to go down and he, and he was that M1 or M2, then absolutely you'd look at it, but they're not going to change too much after being that close in a grand final. All right. Let's look at some rookie options, which may be a chance to, uh, provide some value for us and we'll start with you, Lou Bruce. Revel 200 K mid forward, mate. Any interest?
00:15:12
Speaker
Never heard of him, mate. You got some numbers there to help the listeners out. I was hoping you could help me out on that. I think he's mature age. I think that's the only thing I know about him is that he might have been on their VFL list for a while or whatever it was back before they became VFL and they've given him a list spot, but I don't think he's a high scorer, but people are looking at him because he's mature age.
00:15:33
Speaker
I was that confident you'd have an idea that I didn't even bring up his VFL stats, mate. He's nearly 7% owned, so obviously we need to do our research on Bruce Revel. I'll bring his numbers up while we'll start. Harmony, you talk about Kyle Loman, a bit of a key forward for the Brisbane Lions, 257,000 bucks. I actually quite like Loman, to be honest.
00:15:54
Speaker
Yeah, he's a bit of a shorter forward. He was a high draft pick from memory, like top 30 at least. And I remember a few teams were chasing him last season because he was out of contract at the end of the season. And I know that because the Bombers were won and thrown off to him, I think.
00:16:12
Speaker
He elected to stay with the Lions, which makes me think that they've sort of given him an indication that he could be best 22 without too much trouble. So priced at 257 forward. So it might be worth just keeping an eye on at the moment.
00:16:30
Speaker
Yeah, I just read an article the other day, too, where Kyle Omen got a little bit of a pump up, too, as one of those guys who could could impact in 2024. And his average probably isn't reflective of what he can do. He was subbed for four games. But outside of that average 60 in the two games where he was able to play full game time. So if he can go at that and he's got a he's got a spot in that side, then potentially a few years in the system, he might be one of the ones that shoots out the blocks for us.
00:16:57
Speaker
Sorry, I did mean medium forward, you're right. He's 185 centimetres. I think it's more of a Jack Gunston replacement, even though Gunston didn't play a stack at the back half as well. Definitely one to look at in the pre-season. Bruce Revel, a category B rookie deal for one year following a stellar season in the VFL. So 22-year-old, only averaged around 69, I think it is. So 70 in the VFL from 10 games.
00:17:22
Speaker
Oh, that was 2021. Geez, I've really butchered Revel here. Devon Robertson though, Louis, I think we were going to talk about him, but you've said that there is some injury concerns here. I'm just going to talk about him anyway. 348,000 bucks. Obviously denied that move West to be part of this potential premiership team as well. Played all the final series, including the Granny. And with Will Ashcroft missing, the role could be there, but maybe injury concerns.
00:17:51
Speaker
Yeah, I had a broken wrist post-season and then just a couple of weeks ago, I was going back in for surgery on that wrist. It was clearly giving him some issues, but we spoke about how tight knit that Brisbane Lions-Midfield mix was. Neil McClugage and obviously Dunkley. I'm not too sure where Devon Robertson fits within that. So for that reason, at 300
00:18:16
Speaker
48k he makes me a little bit nervous and if he has had an interrupted preseason then even more so third go on revel 68 average from 12 games so a little bit worse in 2023 than 2021 all right let's move on to the points of difference just a few more names from Brisbane Dane Zorko you did mention him before harm he could he move back into the guts you don't think so 85 average but he did average 100 in his last five games of the regular season last year
Point of Difference Players
00:18:45
Speaker
You can imagine that. You'll just late charge at the finals probably, but you're not going to invest in a 35-year-old injury. There's a lot of injury history as well. Was plus 14 points better without Will Ashcroft? Still a no-dose beat. Zach Bailey, Holmsey, 72 average. That forward line's looking pretty gross. Zach Bailey, an option.
00:19:11
Speaker
I think we've got enough data on Zach Bailey now to essentially say that this is what he is. He's that pure X factor player. He can get the three Brownlow votes from a half forward flank off, you know, 12 touches and three or four brilliant goals. So that's the role he plays. He gets little spurts of midfield time, but that's what they want him to do. And because of that, he's always going to be a, you know, a 70 to 80 type guy. So not the fantasy premium that we're after.
00:19:36
Speaker
Have we got enough data as well on Cam Rayner now, Louis, at 575,064 average? Bit more midfield time though? Well, if he does get midfield time, there would be a little bit of interest. He is that power athlete that does take a couple of years to develop. Apparently, he's as fit as he's ever been. Eight years to develop? Eight years, is it? Geez, yeah, mate. I just plucked that. I have no idea.
00:20:05
Speaker
Look, he was a number one pick, so he is highly rated. We've seen it in glimpses at times, but I'm not sure the consistency is going to be there. It's probably going to be if he does get that midfield time consistently the first time he's in there. With a clearance base like Lachie Neal, I'm not sure he's going to be able to get the amount of pill that we need for him to hold a sustainable average.
00:20:30
Speaker
Harmey, Jared Barry, 666,000. He's now 27 years old, I think 26, 27. Averaged only 74 last year, but 91 in his last three was 12 points better without Ashcroft in the side, according to our With Without Stats. Is there a mid price option following his buy?
00:20:49
Speaker
Nah, no, he's not. I think last year he must have come in a bit cheaper. He must have come a bit injured from the season before, I think. So I think it was not a bad buy at the start of last season. But I think once you see him going into the midfield, he really takes over as that defensive midfielder and takes the pressure off Dunkley a bit. And if they need someone to do a tagging role, it seems to be him too. So I'm not very keen on the role, so I probably know from me.
Conclusion and Next Preview
00:21:19
Speaker
Just want to give this guy shout out Jasper Fletcher for your keeper legs as well. It's too hard and classic, but keeper legs. Any other names we want to talk about on the lines, lads? It's a tough one with the buy, isn't it? Yeah. There's shakes of the heads all around and then there's nods of the head with the buy.
00:21:34
Speaker
All right, well that'll wrap it up for the Brisbane Lions podcast. We've got one more to go. One more team in our team previews. Collingwood is up next. We will see you for the final team preview.