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The Holmes Files - AFL Fantasy Classic Runner Up 2024 Tom
1.2k Plays3 days ago
It is a long pre season, but Holmesy is back with another episode of the Holmes Files. It is December, but we are days away from AFL Fantasy opening, The Traders beginning their club previews and the 50 most relevant beginning. After speaking with the winner of AFL Fantasy classic in 2024 on the last episode, Tom Hales the coach of "PomUnited" joined Holmesy to discuss his epic season where he led the comp from round 13, getting pipped at the post.
On this episode, Holmesy takes a deep dive into the thought process behind what made Tom so successful in 2024. We discuss the important early bye round strategy, dissect his trading strategy and how he set himself up to be successful, how he capitalised during the mid season byes, and some of the mistakes he made that ultimately had him finish in second place. We also take a quick look into the upcoming 2025 season and some strategy behind how we look to build our squads. Enjoy!
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Follow us on X:
The PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Lewy: @LewyAF
Statesman: @Statesman33
Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Tom: @Tom_Hales_
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest Background
00:00:19
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod, it's Holmsey here, back for another episode of The Holmes Files for you on this Wednesday, 18th of December. um We went big last time around. We had Chris, the winner of AFL Fantasy Classic in 2024.
00:00:35
Holmesy
I've got another big name today. He's ah unfortunately joined a club that I'm proudly of, the the Runner Up First Loser Club. ah But I've got, I was here, coach of Pommie. Thanks for jumping on, mate. How you going? I know it's been tough.
00:00:52
Tom
Hi Hermsie, thanks for having me. Yeah, I'm going good. I'm ready to talk a bit about 2024 and look forward to the the new season and other games near the opening.
Leading the Competition: Experience and Strategies
00:01:05
Holmesy
Yeah, look, pretty, pretty tough way to go out. ah well We'll get to it on the pot, obviously, but what, leading the comp from round 13, I believe, and and getting picked in the last quarter of the last game.
00:01:17
Tom
yeah are Yeah, I think I hit the front in round 13 and was only not fair for two rounds between that and round 24. When I fell, I don't actually know how many points I fell short in the end, thats work I didn't get across the line. um Yeah, it was a tough watch that for your part game, which ah on the episode with Chris, it does make me smile all the emotions that he had. I had probably the absolute opposite ones shouting at my TV in my mate's front room.
00:01:49
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it was it was interesting to talk to to Chris the other week about it because I kind of feel like he might have had a bit of an advantage in that in that last round, knowing that he had to come from behind to win. He could make all the moves that he wanted to make to have a crack, whereas, you know, we were talking pre-pot about how you were kind of sort of holding on and you felt like your cash gem wasn't as strong, but leading that for that long and and having all that pressure, do you feel like you were kind of having to play a different game to everyone else that was trying to catch you?
00:02:17
Tom
I think so, yeah. I mean, I tried to keep the same philosophy the whole season, was just trying to do the move that makes my team better. But coming out last round, yeah you are playing a bit of match play, not just against Chris, who I lost, but there was and there was five teams within 100 points, which can easily get turned around with a pod captain or just a pod in general. um So, yeah, it was it was ah it was a ah long home stretch from the middle of the bar.
AFL Fantasy Journey and Statistical Analysis
00:02:49
Tom
Unfortunately, I just couldn't hold on, but we're on 2025, I suppose.
00:02:53
Holmesy
Yeah, look mate, absolutely unreal season. Why don't you give our listeners just a little bit more of an insight about your sort of fantasy history and and your results leading up to coming second last year.
00:03:04
Tom
Yeah, so I mean, as as you can hear, I'm not Australian. um i moved um I moved to Australia in 2019. Did AFL fantasy for the first time in 2021, I believe. But started players like Charlie Dixon and Charlie Cameron. So you can imagine how well that went.
00:03:24
Tom
um But then 2022 I think I finished top 600 which is a good finish but probably the first year I started listening to content doing proper research and actually taking it seriously. um I think about 2k in 2023 and then obviously got the got a bit more lucky last year and managed to finish second.
00:03:45
Holmesy
ah Luck definitely plays a part in it, but clearly you know what you're doing. You you said you're a bit of a stats man and you you love your EPL fantasy as well. Do you find it was a bit like Chris as well, where you know we can kind of get lost in the football and what's going on, but you know just being able to analyze the numbers and and see what's going on as has kind of held you in good stead in this game that we play?
00:04:09
Tom
I think so, yeah. um I think it can work both ways if you're actually invested um to in in certain players or certain teams.
Dynamics and Strategies in Fantasy Sports
00:04:20
Tom
Or I don't want to pick players from my team because they're rubbish, or actually they might be a good fantasy player or in that respect, or or vice versa, I suppose.
00:04:31
Tom
um But I just find it bizarre, to two Englishmen modded two last year. I think it's time for the Aussies to fight back.
00:04:42
Holmesy
Two Englishmen, yes, but another winner from Perth, clearly the ah the ah good fantasy state. Why don't you just dive in a little bit before we get into how you sort of built your season last year. What are you sort of looking at when you're when you're building a starting squad? How are you researching? Where are you looking? What are you sort of looking at? Why don't you give our listeners a bit of an insight?
00:05:03
Tom
And so I just try and consume as much content as possible. There's so many great fantasy minds. I try and get as much information as possible for as many different places, whether it be websites, whether it be podcasts. um I think that's my basis. And you can do some of your own. And I do do do some of my own as well. But I think you get the so much so many smart people than me out there who put all the stats in front you want to play to be able to take which ones you you like the most and which content creators you tend to resonate with um with how you want to play the game. like I am more conservative, I am more aggressive. um I'm quite conservative generally with how I like to play fantasy sports. I like to stick with my players a bit longer than maybe some do, um but trying to use as much of a statistical approach as possible.
Player Strategy and Team Management Approaches
00:06:02
Tom
and go from there, given and all the best plans last year and this year, you can put together the perfect draft and then round zero will happen and then your team will just completely change.
00:06:13
Tom
So that that's thats can't be avoided.
00:06:15
Holmesy
Yeah, well, that is very interesting because we had Chris last year or last pod, sorry, say that, you know, he was flipping players left, right and center in one week out the next. And you've got you saying that you're a little bit more conservative. You like to hold them on yet. You both ended up practically in the same spot at the end of the year. So it definitely shows that there's more than one way.
00:06:35
Holmesy
ah to play the game. let's Let's sort of dive into the start of 2024. So how did you go about your starting philosophy with round zero and how did you look to sort of attack those early buyers?
00:06:50
Tom
um So ah felt well last year year I just to pay value in every player I've got. So I want every player from 1 to 30 in my squad to offer some kind of value. That could be five points for a top end kind of premium starter or obviously more as you go, more mid prices. I tried something new last year where I went less rookie than field and a lot more mid prices, a bit more mid price madness.
00:07:24
Tom
am using the best eight team for four of the first six rounds last year as a bit of a safety blanket that if those players don't work it's fine because we're probably going to get a rookie or two who's going to help score them anyway and with the top-end rookies as we've seen over the last two or three years with your daycosses and your sheasles and your coaches. Sam does Matt Roberts last year um Jeremy Scharf last year um all showing mid price at worst scoring potentially in those early rounds. um I don't like going for top top end guys. I think I had Zach Butters who was priced at around 100. I might have been less than 100. That's my highest price mid, my highest price player. um And then just go full value all the way through my team.
Trading Strategies and Mid-Season Adjustments
00:08:21
Holmesy
Yeah, so I'm just looking at your starting squad here. Three rookies on field, I believe. So Sanders, McCurcher, you did have Roberts on the bench um and then Harley Reid in the forward line. So three rookies on field is definitely a lot different to the way I've ever played it before. I think five or six is where I've typically looked to go. um But yeah, with the round zero and the best 18 scores,
00:08:43
Holmesy
you and Chris were very common there where ah you were very mid price, heavy. And Chris especially was able to flick the ones that didn't work quite quickly. Is that the strategy that you kind of went with?
00:08:54
Holmesy
I've seen here that you started with Zach Williams who didn't work out. um but Mackenzie didn't really work out. um Wines wasn't really that great either.
00:09:01
Tom
Yeah.
00:09:03
Holmesy
So what was your philosophy with those players that just didn't really work at the start?
00:09:06
Tom
Well, two of those players you mentioned, Mackenzie and Wines. I traded it after round one. I li ah saw enough. Mackenzie hadn't got a 40. On the rim, didn't look like he was ever going to get anywhere near the football. Like, he can go. Like, my philosophy was, if two two of these meat prices probably aren't going to work,
00:09:28
Tom
But there's going to be one that I need to get to that I've missed, which was Matt Crouch. And there's rookies that I'm going to miss. So but my round two, before my pre-run two trades were Wines and McKenzie to Ollie Dempsey and Matt Crouch, who Matt Crouch started the season like a house on fire, I think was top 10 in midfield averages by the end. And that even counts a couple of games where he came back at the end and wasn't ready um and I know Dempsey was an absolute smash pick in the forward line. He was sat at f6 for half the season I think for most people. He did awesome. um So I think the plan was to start with less rookies on field but not be scared to bring more on if and when and the rookies fail and not limit prices fail because
00:10:26
Tom
Rook is going to go up in price. You might not be able to get them, especially if they're a hard draft pick or um so an older player who's averaged Paul in previous years, so aren't basement. You might not be able to get there with simple sideways moves. So if I've got a downgrade upgrade I can do early, um I can gain the cash to get the person I want who's starting the season. I can absolute house on fire.
00:10:49
Holmesy
Yeah, perfect. So it's almost like you build your structure knowing that you're more than happy to take a punt on a few more of these players because you know you're not going to get it all right and there are going to be players that just shoot up. ah But this kind of way, it it allows you to get to those players. Whereas if you try and get the perfect structure with the right amount of rookies amid prices, you might not be able to get there.
00:11:09
Tom
Yeah, and and it's who but can know I got lucky with Riley Bonner. Everyone who started Riley Bonner, which I did, and I think a lot of people started him at M5 with three of the four main mid rookies. I was a little bit unique because I never actually earned Jeremy Sharp all season. um just didn't I didn't start with him and then just couldn't get on. I just couldn't afford it. um and once two or three rounds in, I mean, it probably would have been worth, because he ended up getting to 700k, whatever he did at his peak. um But it just felt like he didn't have the... um mean He wasn't the right rookie to bring in, because they were you always the first half of the year, you had lots of rookies that popped their head up as new stats, like your goal-course boys, for example.
00:12:05
Holmesy
Yeah. Well, he was, he was scoring well if you started him, but it wasn't until sort of round seven, eight, I think, where he really started shooting off. He got a a couple of tons in a three or four week stretch, which really got him up. So you can see why, um, that wasn't a, wasn't a play. You didn't necessarily have to. It just worked out for all of us that started him. Olly Dempsey was, was unreal. I think I got him at about 300 K and didn't regret it one bit, but the fact you got on even earlier than that, he proved to be a very, very good rookie
00:12:33
Tom
Yeah, and that's when I talk about look that's. I'm not some rookie expert. I'm not some AFL expert. The guy was playing in the forward for Geelong. As a as a young player, I think it's a first year player, but first year in the in the team. He could have got drops really easily do certainly both the years. How would he get? How many guys have debuted for Geelong that you've never seen ever again? Like it just so happened that he was the right one to just ah he managed to hold down his rear and his rear got well improved moving up the ground to be playing as a pure women rather than as a forward pocket which went obviously helped his scoring massively.
00:13:16
Holmesy
sometimes you need a ah little bit of luck in this game. So you started all these mid prices, three rickies rookies on field. How much time did you put into the round zero buy players? And were you a little bit concerned about having too many or you were just kind of picking the best players at the best prices and you deal with it um when those buy rounds came around?
00:13:37
Tom
So but I didn't want more than two out on a buy in the first couple in round two and round three. I think I had one in round two, which was Zach Williams, who I treated as a rookie effectively. He was 330k or whatever at the start of the year. That's when I remember listening to podcasts at the start of the year and people complain about Zach Williams when it was getting sixties. That's fine. It was a rookie.
00:14:04
Tom
it Is 30K more than the number one pick? He's a rookie. If the number one pick got 60 to the start of the year, we'd all be like, oh, great player. Oh, absolutely fine. So he was fine until I could upgrade him properly, which I managed to at round five, round six. And then round three, I only had Whitfield, I think.
00:14:27
Holmesy
and 16.
00:14:28
Tom
um And Sexton, I traded Sexton out on his buy.
00:14:32
Holmesy
Yep.
00:14:32
Tom
So like that, I traded sets out on his buy. He didn't work. I got him back in as everyone did later in the season, but um at the start he didn't work. So I just traded him out on his buy. And that was kind of the plan. I said, I've only got two max three. I had three for round five. i But I actually only had one going into round five, which was Heaney, because I traded Grundy and Jordan out before that point.
00:15:00
Tom
and because I managed to get some good upgrades on the other side like flipping I think it was round three or round four I turned LDU and Jordan into Thanders and a midfielder which obviously worked really nicely um and also Grundy went to Sherry, round three. I think, I'll give credit to Kelvin. I don't want to give, Kelvin get much credit for his advice in and the fantasy circle. And he was like, I think, so one of them asked the question, like, what would you do with Sherry? And he was like, just get on. And I was like, actually, why wouldn't I just get on? It's a solo Rook, he's priced at 60. He's only going to go 80 West.
00:15:52
Tom
And Grundy had a great band zero, but then had a couple of mediocre scores. And it was like, just do it. And you're going to get 200K. And you can do stuff with that.
00:16:06
Tom
um So yeah, i was i was there all those early trades, getting on Matt Crouch. I actually held Matt Crouch through his suspension, which made him a super pod.
00:16:20
Tom
in the average 108 or whatever he did, which was absolutely fantastic. I think I maybe even had a VC. i at won but i don't think it I don't think I took it. But so he he was my boy at the start of the year. Whenever he scored, my rank would fly up. And it was like, oh, Matt Crouch is playing. Because I'm one of those people who watches my rank mid-round. Because it's most nice to see where you've got a lot of players playing there or you jump up.
00:16:45
Tom
um
00:16:46
Holmesy
you are You got on Zorko pretty early as well, didn't you?
00:16:49
Tom
i got i come so I got on Zorko because I had to get rid of Zach Fisher because he started the season poorly. There were a lot of these players who asked Disney Prizes that I started who did okay, who I just had to get off because they weren't performing to the level that they could. um I still wasn't sure about any premium mids.
00:17:12
Tom
Um, but, um, I know it's performing at the start of the year. Butters was going well. Steel was going well. Crouch was going well. Nick naughty was going well. The DPP hadn't jumped in to move them into the different, into defense. So I didn't want to get rid of any of them. So where was the, or the obvious or my defender was going well. Um, so the obvious trades were in the forward line and was all close about 750 K.
00:17:39
Tom
He'd just gone, I think, three tonnes in four or two tonnes in four and a 90 or something like that to start the year. He had the half-back role. He just looked for him. He'd looked for the space. And I just like, if it doesn't work, you train him out. And he's braking with him super low as well. He was like, OK, I get three weeks of him out. As long as he doesn't do his calf in the first quarter,
00:18:05
Tom
I'm going to be fine.
Captain Strategy and Early Season Foundations
00:18:07
Tom
If it's a 70, well, James John's not scoring 70 in a game, so it doesn't matter.
00:18:13
Holmesy
Yeah, i think I think Chris summed it up pretty well on the last pod where he got on Zorko early and he kept hearing all the podcasts saying you can't pick Zorko. He's injury prone. It's going to happen. and And he was just licking his lips saying, yeah, thank you. don't tell Don't tell people to pick him because he was, in hindsight, he was up there with Tristan Cherry as the pick of the year. and There's no, like, it's it's pretty obvious the people that did well were the early adopters of Zorko, Flanders, Cherry, Shezel, even Whitfield, like, they all, all the common players and it's just about getting on them at the right time, which you you guys clearly did.
00:18:35
Tom
Yeah.
00:18:41
Tom
yeah
00:18:43
Tom
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The two people that helped me a lot the start of the year was Sheisland Gorn. I know Chris didn't have Gorn all season. um But starting with Gorn, being able to sing VC Gorn every single week in the first half of the year,
00:19:02
Tom
let my no big dog strategy work. I effectively had two cheap big dogs. I'd shizled playing chippy chippy in the back line and then I had gone just absolutely racking, ripping it up in the ruck that they could be my kind of parent or captain, vice-captain for the start of the year and I didn't have to worry about having a million dollar midfielder.
00:19:27
Tom
or ah ah even a 900k plus midfielder because my captain's season was sorted. um Because I think my fantasy wrapped. fantascy rep i said my found ah captain average was like 127 for the season. it was I had one score below 100 and that was the gone 92 that every man and his everyone had. everyone I think see you've gone against, it might have been West Coast when he got tagged by Bailey barely Williams of all people.
00:20:01
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:20:01
Tom
i Everyone had him as captain, so it was like, oh, that's not that's not really hurt.
00:20:01
Holmesy
Yep. I remember it well yet.
00:20:07
Tom
Even that result score didn't really hurt, so. Yeah, that that that was, I think that's the thing that's in hindsight, I look back on it, it's like, yeah, the strategy works, but i had a good I had good captain options anyway.
00:20:11
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:20:22
Holmesy
So looking back on it now, the key philosophies around zero, because once again this year we have to play round zero, the AFL of have brought it back. What are your sort of key learnings from round zero and and how we should sort of attack it this year, knowing that not every season it's the same, but what learnings were there?
00:20:38
Tom
yeah I think don't be scared. and For starters, if you like three players and they have great value and they all have the round four by, for example, you can do it. It's best 18. And by that point, the landscape might have changed and you might be wanting to get off one anyway.
00:21:05
Tom
We have trades, we can use them. And if we get force trades, I was lucky, same with Chris. I barely had a force trade for the start of the year. I had a million towards the end, which may have cost me the car. and But the you can't plan for force trades. You've got to plan to do the best you can. And and in best 18s, you can take a zero because you have people backing it up.
00:21:34
Tom
um So I think value in know every position where there's value, um I'll talk to you in a bit about position where I don't think there's value this year with what with our current knowledge. So my strategy might be changing a little bit around that position, but we'll talk about that in a bit.
00:21:50
Tom
um
00:21:51
Holmesy
Yeah, I think I know what you're what you're going to say, but we will we will get there.
00:21:54
Tom
and we'll get We'll get there, so yeah.
00:21:54
Holmesy
so and you're Can you remember what rank you were coming out of the early season bias, or roughly?
00:22:03
Tom
I think I was around a hundredth. and
00:22:06
Holmesy
Yeah, it started really well.
00:22:08
Tom
I had round five which was the Sydney and I want to say Collingwood Bay.
00:22:17
Holmesy
Yep.
00:22:19
Tom
I had like a round rank of 69. Like I had a and even with Heaney, but I didn't have Derkos, I didn't have Grundy, I didn't have Jordan, I didn't have, I think Warnod popped off at the start of the year and loads of people had him. Like I didn't have, I didn't have Matt Robert, I didn't have Matt Robert, sorry. um And then I had Zorko who, I think that was Zorko's 180 game um against Gold Coast.
00:22:49
Holmesy
yeah
00:22:50
Tom
where they just chipped and chipped and chipped. And that jumped me up and then I flitted around 100 and then kind of had a couple more good weeks and then got towards the top spot by the mid-season bias.
00:23:06
Holmesy
Yeah, so let's talk about that because I'm on record saying that I believe the trades from round sort of seven through to the mid-season buyers are the most important trades of the season. um If you've managed to build your cash-gen well um and score pretty well, if you can get in front of the upgrade cycle um in almost snowballs, what were your plans and what were you looking to do in those sort of real crucial rounds that set you up to be basically the number one coach at the start of the mid-season buyers?
00:23:35
Tom
So I think round six, the last round of the mid-season, there are season buys, I Now you're on season, I might be around seven, first one after. I got rid of Sanders and the catcher the same week um for two rookies. I think it might have been Closie and Hugo Garcia or great. like um the And Garcia got a 71 on debut.
00:24:02
Tom
And that it was the week that Sanders was the sub and it was the week after McKercher got his two. So I was like, okay, I'm getting off these. McKercher's cash gen's gone. Even though he played, I think he even got 100 that first week, but his cash gen was absolutely shot. And Sanders was the sub, so he was going to lose money.
00:24:24
Tom
or he's going to lose money or stagnate at best. So let's get off them, get some cash in the bank, and then I can literally use that 300, 400K to go upgrade, upgrade, upgrade, upgrade, upgrade, upgrade all the way through, up until the rise when I think if I wanted to, I could have been fully premium round 12.
Mid-Season Trading Philosophy and Mistakes
00:24:50
Holmesy
There you go, so double downgrade, such a dirty word in the fantasy community, but the coach that was sitting first come around 13, double downgrade.
00:24:50
Tom
I think.
00:24:58
Holmesy
I remember the week there were some good rookies on on offer, but it is such a such a hard thing mentally to do.
00:25:03
Tom
Well, it could have gone wrong. like Yeah, it was so I don't think I could have done a good upgrade. I don't think there's anything that I liked. It might have been the player I wanted had Brisbane aware of something. And I was like, I don't want to get that. I think I really wanted Derkos, because he had a really juicy run from round eight. But I was like, I like i can get him now, or I can wait. We can double down.
00:25:31
Tom
And then as soon as the news was a 30 night game, when Sanders was the sub, I was like, just double down. I don't want him to catch you too. I didn't know if he was going to be a layout. He wasn't in the end, but was like if he's a layout, and he sat there, and I've got no one really to cover, or I might do, it might be a Jay Clark for his standard 35, I just decided to go for that double down grade.
00:25:58
Tom
i think yeah Usually it's not the right play, I would say. um I was lucky that my team, I had a really good run at the start of the year that I thought my team was ahead of the kerbs.
00:26:12
Tom
I could take one step back to take two, three steps forward the week after, um which it's a long season, it's 24, 25 rounds is so long. You don't have to, work you can't you can't win the comp, you can lose the comp in the first few weeks, you can't win it.
00:26:23
Holmesy
Yeah, absolutely.
00:26:28
Tom
and So just keep keeping your team in a nice healthy state, not taking too many early risks. I did get bring in Dorko, I do know that. um You can't take no risks, but template template teams aren't necessarily bad at the start of the year. Popular players are popular for a reason.
00:26:49
Holmesy
Yeah, so it was it was interesting. So mid-season buyers rolled around. you You're the number one team in the comp. um Speaking to Chris, he said that from this point, he just kept making cash and he was just able to go and go and go. We're speaking to you. You felt like you you kind of got to this point and you felt like you were holding on. So can you pinpoint the reason why you felt at this point your cash gen started to slow? Were there a few key players that you missed or what was the bob's the story?
00:27:19
Tom
I don't think I got on Rosie early. So when Rosie was at his bottom after his injury, I think he had a few good scores in a row and I didn't get on there. A lot of people got on and got back off. But I just think yeah my rookie that I brought in ended up being red dots quickly. I got on Dowling, but I missed a couple of others um that helped bringing cash.
00:27:44
Tom
um like Some people bought in Shawn Manor and he turned out to be great, so getting cash that way. I made a few mistakes with my trades. I got a few forced injuries. like um The gone injury we had went nank because he had a great run and he did great.
00:28:08
Tom
and then he got injured a again, in and and then I moved to Marshall like everyone. um But that was more forced trade, so then at my red dots stayed on my bench, not making cash, not being able to cash them out because they might be set with $350k on their head, but I can't use it because I'm having to sideways on field. um And then the biggest mistake of my season,
00:28:33
Tom
um So there was a point, I think it was Zach Fisher got injured and and I had another forward up. It might have been I wanted to do Sexton and Fisher the same week. And I was like, I have three players in mind. It was Joe Dammehre off the back of four tonnes in six weeks with two of his next three at the gabber.
00:29:00
Tom
It was Dylan Moore who we had two tonnes in the last nine weeks, including like three, six below 60 scores. And it was Graham Myers who was doing very Graham Myers eighties most weeks. And I couldn't do more on Danaher for cash. So it was like, it was either Myers and Moore or Myers and Danaher.
00:29:26
Tom
If I weren't with Miles and Mo, I haven't done the maths, but I think I'd have won the comp by about 300 points.
00:29:34
Tom
Because I never could get to Mo after that point. He with event went an average of 110 for the rest of the year. I think I got on in around 23. I just thought ah don't care what I do now. He's hurting me so much. I just need to... I was messing around with Jai Simkin and Dowling played unfair for a couple of games just because I right and i just had enough.
00:30:01
Tom
That f6 didn't work here in my season. But he also made a lot of cash which allowed people to do other trades because he was just a lock and I was having to mess around with f6.
00:30:13
Holmesy
Yeah, look, it's it is what it is, though, right?
00:30:13
Tom
I'm not. Yeah.
00:30:16
Holmesy
Like it ended up being a mistake. You did you did your research. I talk about in 2021 when the the whole comp basically went down Houston um and I went Daniel Rich instead.
00:30:27
Holmesy
And Daniel Rich ended up averaging 95 for the stretch that I had him in Houston when in the 70s. And it's those kind of moves that that separate you. So it's you took your shot.
00:30:36
Tom
Yeah, look, I took a short shot. I traded out Sheezel in round 11, full of Ryan, who I captained for two weeks in a row for two 150s.
00:30:47
Tom
Like, he'd get both sides of it. I then traded Sheezel back in after his buy.
00:30:54
Holmesy
yeah
00:30:55
Tom
It was like, pore away then back.
00:30:56
Holmesy
yeah
00:30:57
Tom
It was the week he'd gotten me, like, a couple weeks in the midfield, and it was really, you know, how can I kind of feel it's going to be this shit, it's my opinions on him. He kind of scrapes to 100 most weeks, but he's not, he doesn't, he rarely does sometimes put up a 130, which he was doing in his sleep when he was playing it down back.
00:31:17
Tom
um So I was like, okay, I'll bring in Luke Ryan, who's playing the most disgusting football you've ever seen, taking 15 meters, backwards 45s, which he stopped doing.
00:31:18
Holmesy
Yeah. Yeah.
00:31:30
Tom
I probably held Luke Ryan a bit too long, um But I just couldn't not.
00:31:42
Tom
Yeah.
00:31:42
Holmesy
Look, as ah as a Freo fan, you yeah it was very interesting what they were doing in that back line. it was It was never sustainable, but you don't want to be that coach that trades him out. And then he goes another 150 and just and goes back to doing what he's doing.
00:31:52
Tom
I think it's fair we're winning with him playing like with them doing it like that.
00:31:55
Holmesy
so
00:32:00
Tom
which is kind of what made him think you'd carry up, like, you're a freeo fan, that freeo would carry on doing that, because they were winning playing that style, but then after the buys, the chair, and then even Luke Ryan's positioning.
00:32:00
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:32:16
Tom
if money Even in spite of him playing as a ah lockdown in some games, even when he wasn't he wasn't that target of the crop, he would't he wouldn't be in the line for the switches. I remember a couple of games that you're just like you watching it on TV and you can't see who's next in the line.
00:32:32
Tom
And start the scene, it was, well, there's Luke Ryan. He's in that chain of the switch on the back line. And then it was going to Hugh Davies and Brandon Walker and whoever else that got from Peel Thunder for that week. I said, where's Luke Ryan? And he just kind of sat there, nowhere near this chain, not really doing much. Whether he was injured, maybe, we don't know. Something with him changed after the mid-season body.
00:33:02
Tom
whether he took that long we Whether that long mio comment was directly at him. I think it was the Bulldogs game where you got beat away, which happens to a lot of teams.
00:33:08
Holmesy
yeah
00:33:14
Tom
But and whether it was hit that it was actually directed at him, not the midfielders, actively being like, what are you doing?
00:33:16
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:33:23
Tom
I don't care if you get 40. Given that, day Ryan stank it anyway, so I don't really know.
00:33:28
Holmesy
Yeah,
Planning for the 2025 Season
00:33:30
Tom
know but and so
00:33:32
Holmesy
we will never know.
00:33:33
Holmesy
Let's, uh, that's all right. Let's get into some 2025 chat now. Have you had a chance to sort of play around with a team at the moment or have done some research?
00:33:43
Tom
yeah i've've i've got ah i've got a little team somewhere and i don't um ah bet it's go I think as a lot of people are saying, I completely agree. The forward line, there's no creams, but there's so many options.
00:33:59
Tom
um My personal thought is that we've got a lot of cash this year, just because of how many guineas we've got in the forward line. Kitty Coleman traced at 12, whatever he's priced at, in defense. Even the midfield, there's plenty of value, good players who have value, even down to a Cox is priced in the high 70s.
00:34:26
Tom
um He's been one of my boys from previous years, who just when he's 30, he just knocks hundreds out every week.
00:34:32
Holmesy
who Who was that, sorry?
00:34:34
Tom
Yeah,
00:34:35
Holmesy
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:34:36
Tom
yeah
00:34:36
Holmesy
Sorry, I just misheard you there.
00:34:37
Tom
ah so yeah no no stress. However, the one position which right now, on the 18th of December, I just don't see any rook value at all with any with any player. So right now, and I know what you were a fun postlarra fan the set and forget,
00:34:55
Tom
and I just can't see me not doing that this year. I'm just starting the two big, but starting the two big, but, yeah.
00:35:00
Holmesy
Ah! The ruck, the ruck was the one that you were talking about. I thought we were going to talk about the top end defenders not having a lot of value.
00:35:07
Tom
No.
00:35:08
Holmesy
I know we got some mid prices. All right. That's all right. Let's dive into that.
00:35:12
Tom
but
00:35:12
Holmesy
So no,
00:35:13
Tom
I see, yeah. Yeah, go on, sorry.
00:35:16
Holmesy
talk us through it. Talk us through it.
00:35:19
Tom
I just looked through the, I looked through the list of Rooks this year and we we we kind of have, I kind of see it as four tiers of Rooks. I think we've got the the top two, who are kind of the, unless things change, you're going to be one and two again. Their teams are built around kind of how they play in 2024, where that changed in 2025. We're in December. Things change. Senko love the uncontested game with Marshall.
00:35:53
Tom
um And he's the only Rook on the list, given that have've I've seen a couple of things about a younger younger player playing Rook and Marshall playing forward in some pre-season, but this is pre-season, we'll talk about it.
00:36:06
Holmesy
i think they I think they might have just signed a mature age SPP, ah but I could be wrong there.
00:36:09
Tom
and Yeah.
00:36:11
Holmesy
But yeah, I agree.
00:36:12
Tom
to me that To me, that's just a Tom Campbell replacement. um
00:36:17
Holmesy
Yep.
00:36:17
Tom
um And then sharing, there is no one on the list. It's a Cal and Coleman Jones who is never going to take more than the standard chop out of a solo Rook anyway. Then we've kind of got the, um could be top tier, have been top tier but aren't top tier Rook, so you're English, you're gone.
00:36:43
Tom
And there's a few that want to be in that with Kang Run to get back to what he was. Can Lloyd Meats take the next step? Can TDK take the next step? Can Briggs take the next step? All of them are just kind of like, I just don't see, I feel like, I felt that the talk around TDK would be stronger at this point of the season, because I feel like he's a love child of the community.
00:37:13
Tom
I don't see.
00:37:15
Holmesy
There's been no podcast so far, man. It's pretty hard.
00:37:16
Tom
Yeah, it's going to happen on my ex so or Facebook or whatever.
00:37:17
Holmesy
and and to
00:37:23
Tom
you I thought I'd see more about TDK. I'm not a believer anywhere. ah him
00:37:29
Holmesy
I think he'll be a very so ah strongly selected player come round one, if it's confirmed that Pitnet's not playing. We played last year, um he you can score with the best of them in that solo rock position, but the the issue is always going to be is if Pitnet does come in, then you're in trouble.
00:37:49
Tom
just Yeah.
00:37:50
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:37:50
Tom
and And his body.
00:37:52
Holmesy
Yep, that too.
00:37:53
Tom
And his body. Not that other people don't have issues with their body but I think Marshall's played 40 plus games in the last two seasons. I think Cherry played every game last year. I think Marshall did two actually, or maybe missed one or two, Max. Everyone's, you can't predict injuries, but Rooks, I just don't see, the only one I kind of, and it's with my boys as an Eagles fan, if Matt Flynn plays as a solo Rook with no Billy Williams, I'm interested. Because I think he's got the, he's placed and got about 60, I can't see him going less than 80.
00:38:34
Tom
But I don't think he'll play by himself. So I don't think that's an option.
00:38:39
Holmesy
Now.
00:38:40
Tom
ah just to I don't see an R3 unless ah i I don't see rec options. So I'm like, oh, let's just set and forget.
00:38:52
Tom
There are my captains every week. That's fine. me That's fine. We'll just take that and and roll with it and try and get value elsewhere.
00:39:01
Holmesy
ah do You know, I am all about a set and forget rut combo.
00:39:04
Tom
think
00:39:07
Holmesy
You've got the juices flowing. I mean, there is a Sean Darcy. He can get his body fit. Very big if, um but he's shown before that he can score, not with the best of them, but definitely score enough from his 78 price tag or whatever it is.
00:39:18
Tom
Yep, yep. And if I'm up to, I can talk with Profado in December when it gets to mid-March and
00:39:33
Tom
And in the practice game, Darcy goes 110 with 80% rook time and Jackson kicks four playing as a forward. And I'm like, oh, that's going to be that split in round one. But then, yeah, Darcy dreamed, would love it.
00:39:50
Holmesy
He's just got to be fit.
00:39:50
Tom
um
00:39:51
Holmesy
I think, I think Freo showed even at the the last two games or whatever it was where Liam Reedy came into rock and and Jackson was forward. I clearly think they want Jackson to be the the forward up there that can pinch it as he provides that, you know, X factor down there alongside Amos and um Tracy.
00:40:08
Holmesy
So, but yeah, it's, it's December for all.
00:40:11
Holmesy
I know he did a hammy at training today. So who knows?
00:40:11
Tom
completely like
00:40:13
Tom
Yeah, exactly.
00:40:15
Holmesy
There could be value there. There could be value in a ah Toby Conway. If he's able to win the, the solo ruck position at Geelong but we know that Geelong don't like playing players under 30 really so that's going to be that's going to be tough yeah or a ruck in general true sorry but yeah look well i mean set and forget you don't think tim english can get back to
00:40:26
Tom
Oh, a rook! before
00:40:37
Tom
i I'm not saying I don't think that they can because I definitely think they can. I am as big and that's gone fine as you ever. I still think once again, he's going on again as the solo rook and if he's fit, he will score well. I just don't. I just see a ceiling out of those two players.
00:41:01
Tom
which had a consistency. And Marshall would be my number one, because we've seen it for multiple years now, not just one. um I just think that they're the safest option. And if it's spending um another $100,000, $150,000 on doing that, I'll take it. When I don't see value, other than that, I want same as last year, value in every position.
00:41:32
Tom
trying to get some kind of cash gen um from every player. um whatever that Maybe this year I'm more comfortable arounding playing more rookies. I might do that. i'm I'm not completely against playing more rookies than the three I started with last year. I think that even for someone who tried to reduce the amount of rookies on field, that was a little bit um strong, I believe. But yeah.
00:42:03
Holmesy
with ah With making your team, have you managed to use the Bolter Team Picker yet or you've just been using your own spreadsheet?
00:42:08
Tom
Yes, yes. I'm using the ball to team picker. um Because it's so it's an awesome tool if you haven't used it
00:42:12
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:42:20
Tom
um please do um Please do use it because it's an awesome it's an awesome tool until the game opens, which shouldn't be too far away.
00:42:33
Tom
I think one is teasing it, maybe coming this week, so we'll be able to ah be able to use it. I'm just trying to get my i'm trying to get my team up.
00:42:42
Holmesy
Well, even with the even with the the game opening. So for those of you that might haven't have done this yet, or or maybe you have, at picker.bolter.team. So this is ah Selby's product from Marara's Magic. He's got his team picker set up. so Some of the stats that you can use on this is just unreal.
00:43:04
Holmesy
So ah you've got the ability to save multiple versions.
00:43:05
Tom
yeah
00:43:07
Holmesy
So we all know that during the preseason, you tinker and you tinker and you forget who you've picked. um So this has the ability to pick multiple versions and save them. ah You can put in your projected averages and then see the potential cash and scoring potential of each version so that's that's awesome as well so not just moving players around but actually saying what cash gen and what scoring potential of each team is I think is a very good tool as well.
00:43:34
Holmesy
um And then all the other stats that he has in terms of the buy detectors, the price stats, break evens and other advanced stats. So if you haven't done that, which I know you have, but the listeners definitely go and do that.
00:43:44
Holmesy
um it's It's really good to be able to organize everything and and have it set. So why don't you, you don't have to give your full team away, Tom, but why don't you give us ah give us a little bit, give us a little bit.
00:43:50
Tom
Yeah. Yeah, okay, I'm falling for the mic.
00:43:57
Tom
um so I'm kind of going similar vibe to last year. At the minute I have one rookie in defence, three in the midfield, kind of one up forward. He's not a rookie but he's rookie priced.
00:44:18
Tom
That might change. It's a bit of a speculative speculative pick depending on what he plays. and But I feel like there's a lot of cash floating around. Like, for example, I've picked... Holland Francis at f1.
00:44:32
Tom
He's, I'm not sold on him as a, as a AFL fantasy player, super coach, maybe. um But I'm not sold sold on him as a pick, but I had lots of cash left. I was like, well, I may as well pick him. Who else do I have? That's interesting. Like my most, my highest price mid is Tom Green, um priced at around a hundred.
00:45:01
Tom
i Um, but then I've just got, I've got mid price heaven, like Callum Mills, Harry Perriman, World Day, Canelio, Toronto. It's a bit of a dad's army team, this at the minute, it probably will change. It was my first draft that I put together, but I feel it was a lot, it's jumping on the right injury reduced player. ah It's going to be the, the,
00:45:30
Tom
the the trick, I think, to having a really strong start this year. I think there's a lot of players who have averaged really well in the past, like here Canelio, like here Toronto, like Karen Mills.
00:45:47
Tom
like Jack McRae, even though we can hide behind the forward line with that, Isaac Cumming, Harry Perriman, those kind of players who have done well previously.
00:46:01
Tom
um And things have changed, because that's my big that's one of my philosophies as well, is natural progression, I don't like to back that in. I'd sooner see it.
00:46:15
Tom
which
00:46:15
Holmesy
Except when it's Harry Sheezer or Nick Dacos.
00:46:20
Tom
Harry Scheisel was the exception last year. ah pi I started with Harry Scheisel. I don't really know why I did. I think I just was like, once Abel's gone now, he's staying in defense. I couldn't see him doing worse than what he was priced at. But what I mean is people who, like, I think George Ward was an example I always liked,
00:46:49
Tom
make. So we've not we've never really seen it with him. We've never seen him go 120 120 in two weeks it's always been oh he's got 110 this week but then he has his 13 touches six tackles for a 60 the week after and it's like oh okay i want to see you like a couple of weeks he was a couple weeks good and a couple weeks bad just a couple of weeks of okay you can score and you can back it up and score again
00:47:21
Tom
Um, cause that's why I liked about she's the last year year was like, obviously he was a rookie started really well. Then he got moved around and he played a couple of games in the midfield and forward. Um, and then he had the role to start with is that half back and more for still going to be horrible. So he was going to get a lot of ball. Um,
00:47:46
Tom
so yeah.
00:47:46
Holmesy
Yeah, look, I know, I know Selby was really big in his years that he was the first one to jump on these players, but he wasn't keen to necessarily start them. I think Clayton Oliver was one, Toronto was one, the the famous ones where they they have a good first year, but he doesn't necessarily start them. He's more than happy to jump on it once, once he's seen them. But at the same time, in this day of fantasy with so many coaches out there switched on,
00:48:12
Holmesy
You know, sometimes you've got to go early. So it's all about having that fantasy IQ, but you are right.
00:48:14
Tom
Yeah.
00:48:17
Holmesy
The the natural progression breakout is much harder to pick than the the player that's done it before.
00:48:21
Tom
Yeah.
00:48:23
Holmesy
And then you can sell the narrative of, okay, they had an off year because they were injured or whatever. And they're under priced for
Player Analysis and Sustaining Performance
00:48:29
Holmesy
that reason. And we know that they might not get back to where they've been, but they've still got the potential to to go at least well enough that they're worth worthwhile pick at that price.
00:48:38
Tom
Yeah. and i cant eight I think you have to be ruthless with players in round one and round two. If you don't have any, if you've got forced trades, you've got forced trades. But if you don't see, I think I was really lucky with early wines, is that he played West Coast round one. And that was part of the reason why I picked him. Because they started West Coast at home. And I think he got a 75, which was like what he was praised at. It was fine.
00:49:06
Tom
But he's like, that's what he's going to do against my rabble. What's he going to do when he comes against someone who got no free ball at all? And that's a a metric that i and that you can really get it from. ah You can get it from uncontested possessions. But actual cheap ball that they've worked for, which is what all of the best scorers do, just that 10-meter run into space,
00:49:35
Tom
to get that cheat plus six, just build scores. Like Dan Zorko last year was the absolute master of it. Just a little five meter lead into a gap to take a mark. That's six points you're flying. Do that four times a quarter and you've got a hundred. like i you Which I think that's what separates the good mids from the great mids especially is how many can get that cheat ball.
00:50:04
Tom
And when Adam Treloar was flying last year, he'll get that so often. And I didn't have him. And it was the worst thing in the world to watch. Because he'd be like, oh, he's on the quarter quarter. And then he'd just be bang plus six, bang plus six. It's like, oh, well, there's a 25-point quarter. And he's on track.
00:50:22
Tom
um
00:50:23
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:50:24
Tom
it it's really For me, it's really hard to consistently score well through either the shit um shea whi for through one particular aspect, whether it be just tackles, just sheer weight of possessions, just marks.
00:50:42
Tom
If you can do two of those three, a lot of math, a lot of possessions, some marks, lots of tackles, lots of tackles, possessions, if you can do two of those three as well, it's way more sustainable. And most people, most people were stacked about these kind of things as well with contested ball and transition ball and all that kind of stuff. But from an eye test point of view, it's where I tend to get a lot of my confirmations of Because stats can tell you what you want it to see, right? And it did with Joe Donahoe.
00:51:17
Holmesy
Yep. I got one more little area I we want to touch before we finish.
00:51:22
Tom
Yep.
00:51:22
Holmesy
Defenders this year.
00:51:24
Holmesy
So looking at the defenders, we do have some potential cheap options in, you already mentioned a ah Kitty Coleman, if he is fit ready for round one, it's not guaranteed that he will be considering you did his ACL in round zero.
00:51:24
Tom
Yep.
00:51:37
Holmesy
um You've got Callum Mills, who we still don't know what his role is, but you'd think whether it's mid or defense, there's still going to be value on that price tag. But outside of that, I'm i'm struggling to see much value in the top-end guys. You can sort of sell a narrative for all of them that they could regress. I mean, you've got Sheezle potentially moving into the midfield slash a forward role. You've got Whitfield, who should still score the same, but we know what he's like and it's ah it's a hard price tag to start. You've got Zorko, who's another year older.
00:52:06
Holmesy
Um, all these, all these top end guys, you know, Nick Newman, we haven't seen it for a full season. He's sort of up and down and you've got Doherty coming back. So who knows how that sort of lines up. What are we looking to do with the top price defenders?
00:52:17
Tom
yeah so currently on the side i've got i've got jackson claire as my d1 um part is the reason i don't think he likes any of those guys and anywhere around him um i think they've all got on me they've all got a downside somewhere um she's all I think the Sheensville could have ah an amazing footy season, but a quite an underwhelming fantasy season. I can't say you see him going one over 112, which is what is priced out of the minute. Whitfield had a perfect storm. Did they try and p play a bit quicker?
00:53:01
Tom
um Does every team try and tag him? Zorko, you were so good to me last year.
00:53:11
Tom
Kitty Coleman back, a year old, does he keep that role?
Conclusion and Future Insights
00:53:17
Tom
He might do, but I'd sooner spend that cash on, okay, I'm going to, instead of starting a worried meet, I'm going to start Tristan Cherry.
00:53:32
Tom
I'd sooner go that way around where I think the rooks have a more guaranteed scoring. as Whereas all these top defenders could be great, but I can give more of a reason of why they might regress slightly than maintain the 105 plus. I actually think defense is its probably the hardest line this year for me. Because as you say, you're kind of looking for options.
00:54:01
Tom
There's a lot of guys who I think are priced out about what I think they'll go. um So yeah.
00:54:10
Holmesy
I mean, it is December that they will pop up, you know, as we might get a ah or two, we might be able to thin the spending there a little bit, but we're we're thinning the spending in the forward line as well.
00:54:14
Tom
Yeah. yeah
00:54:19
Holmesy
So we've got to spend our cash somewhere.
00:54:20
Tom
Yeah. Yeah.
00:54:21
Holmesy
um It's just good conversation point um to finish up on. and And on that note, we will wrap up. Tom, thank you so much ah for jumping on. I really appreciate it.
00:54:33
Holmesy
Can you just let the listeners know where they can find you on X and have you got anything planned? for the upcoming fantasy season or you're just happy to just stay in the shadows and and do your thing.
00:54:45
Tom
Yep, people can find me at Tom underscore hails underscore. um Nothing massively planned for the preseason, but I might post a few bits and bobs um as we go.
00:55:02
Tom
Always happy to chat with anyone who wants to chat fantasy, really. um I'm an absolute nuffie of fantasy. I love AFL, even though I've only been in the country a few years. So happy for happy for a good chat with anyone who wants to listen, really.
00:55:17
Holmesy
Nah, mate, you've been unreal. Thank you very much. ah Make sure you're following us at X at Pod Pod AFL and I'm ah at at Homsey's Heroes. Please make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to your content. And if you could leave us a rating and review to get us rolling again, that would be greatly appreciated.
00:55:37
Holmesy
Not sure when the podcast is going to kick back up for real, but I do have a ah couple more of these homes files planned. So make sure you're tuning in for that. I've got a special guest lined up in the next week or so who is a familiar content creator who has managed to do ah something I find very impressive in having a very high rank this year, despite being on a on a podcast and and giving away all his secrets. But we'll leave that up for debate and we'll be back soon. But for now, farewell.