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Melbourne FC AFL Fantasy 2024 team preview | #PODPOD
2.9k Plays1 year ago
The Dees have had a tumultuous offseason thus far, but how will the off-field issues translate to on-field performance, and more importantly... our AFL Fantasy teams?!
Dos, Holmesey, and Harmey discuss which Demons could benefit if Clayton Oliver misses the early part of the season with some #moremidtime!
There are plenty of names to talk about for Melbourne FC AFL Fantasy in 2024, including Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Trent Rivers, Angus Brayshaw, Jack Billings, and much more!
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Transcript
Introduction to AFL Fantasy Podcast
00:00:16
Speaker
Hey and welcome to the Pod Pod, it's your boy Dossie here talking all things AFL fantasy, continuing our team previews with the Melbourne Demon. Wait for that drop. There it is. Did you imagine being in a nightclub dance for the summer at 4am and then this just comes on?
00:00:46
Speaker
Well, yeah, if you go and see Checkers Live, I'm sure he busts these out of these DJ sets. But look, yes, we are talking at the Melbourne Demons on the show today. We've been getting through all the team previews. And after this one, we've only got three more left. So
Melbourne Demons' Fantasy Performance Analysis
00:01:00
Speaker
get around it. It's been a good bit of fun this pre-season for us to dissect each of these teams. And I'm doing it on this show with two two-time top 10 AFL fantasy hat winners.
00:01:13
Speaker
We've got Holmsey and also John Harmy. Stado not joining us. So, Harmy, you will be our buy-around expert for this show. Looking forward to fill those shoes on this one, the Melbourne show. Let's get through the team numbers for the demons last year, finishing fourth on the ladder. But they were down at 10th for AFL fantasy scoring, despite being
00:01:36
Speaker
high up on that ladder. They were eighth for disposals, but still very effective in getting the ball inside 50. Number one for inside 50s, but sixth for marks inside 50.
Media Spotlight: Oliver Saga & Joel Smith
00:01:48
Speaker
So they were getting the ball in there, but were they getting it to the right target? They were below average for kicking efficiency, which may explain that as well.
00:01:56
Speaker
still manage to pump those inside 50s numbers by being the fourth best clearance differential team, number one for intercept possessions and number one for hit out differential with their
00:02:09
Speaker
dominant ruck, as always, and losing one, which we'll talk about in a second. But first of all, go to you, Homezy. The Ds, they've already had a stack of media attention this off-season due to obviously the Oliver saga. We've also got the Joel Smith stuff as well.
Trade Period Impact on Team Dynamics
00:02:27
Speaker
But can the Ds put this aside, have a strong 2024 campaign and be really relevant for our fantasy teams?
00:02:34
Speaker
Yeah, look, mate, to be honest, I could look in a year's time and this could sound really, really poor, but the way I look at it, I think they could be the team that falls and drops a little bit this year. They've kind of, they've been up the top of the mountain for a while now. They won the premiership in 2021 and they've made top four the last two years, but we don't see sides stay up overly, you know, longer than this. And with all the Clary Oliver stuff going on and with that list getting a little bit older, I can potentially see them dropping off a little bit this year, but who knows what that means for fantasy.
00:03:04
Speaker
Alright, well let's look at the changes they made in the off-season with their movement. The trade period, the ins. Jack Billings comes across from St Kilda after falling a bit out of favor over there. Shane McCattum comes across from Adelaide. I actually quite like his game. He's got a nifty bit about him. Shane McCattum, I think he'll actually do some damage for the Ds. Probably not
Strategizing Melbourne's Bye Rounds
00:03:26
Speaker
in our fantasy teams though.
00:03:27
Speaker
And also Tom Fullerton across from Brisbane. Outs. James Jordan to Sydney. James Harms to Western Bulldogs. Brody Grundy to Sydney. Michael Hibberd retired and Luke Dunston also retiring there. So going to go to our buy round expert now, John Harmy. Discuss the buy round please. So they do play the opening round, the Ds, but they've got the round six buy. So a little bit of a buffer for us there and then into the round 14 buys, their second one.
00:03:55
Speaker
Yes, thanks, Osby. Expert, loosely used term in this case. They had the round six buy as their early buy, which, if you're going to go with anybody with an early buy, it's a pretty good result, really. They only share it with Richmond, and there aren't too many Richmond prospects for us in our starting lineups, I wouldn't have thought. So, not too bad case there. If in round zero, you have some Melbourne players that are pumping out big scores,
00:04:26
Speaker
and then they have the round 14 buy
Max Gorn's Solo Ruck Potential
00:04:29
Speaker
as well. So you get a few weeks there and that round 14 buy is not too bad because they share it with Gold Coast, your long Essendon, Carlton and West Coast. So, you know, your little battling West Coast rookies, you would have made your money off and turfed them by then. So I think that it's not too bad for around zero playing team DOS.
00:04:55
Speaker
All right, well, looking at the popular picks from Melbourne, 10 plus percent ownership is what I'm going off. Obviously, these numbers are going to fluctuate quite considerably with the opening round, but we're looking at it from this perspective at the moment, at the time of recording. Max Gorn.
00:05:11
Speaker
Ninety-two average last year. Obviously Brody Grundy is now out of the picture. The only guy there to back him up is what Tom Fullerton, who they brought in from Brisbane. So I don't see, I think it's going to be Max Gorn solo. Most likely once more. Homsey, you're just about his biggest fan. You've been a big,
00:05:30
Speaker
supporter of the gun duo Rach set and forget Max Gorn Brody Grundy in the past or Max Gorn and whoever 31% owners agree with you here but explain us why is this the case this year.
00:05:44
Speaker
Yeah, look, well, he played with Brody Grundy a lot last year, which is contributed to his average being a lot lower. He's coming in priced at 92, but he actually does have an injury game in there of, I think he got injured in the first quarter and only had a three or something like that. So that bumps that up automatically to 97.
00:06:01
Speaker
And we know what he can do when he solo rocks. I'm pretty sure there was a patch there at the end of the year when Brody Grundy went out permanently for the rest of the year. And I think Gorn averaged around that 113 mark. So I'm not saying he's going to be a 113 guy, but we haven't seen a max Gorn solo rock 80 plus percent roll in about four years. He had Jackson as his understudy there for a while and he was doing that 65 to 70% for two years.
00:06:29
Speaker
And then obviously Brody Grundy came in last year and there was that bit more of a split. So I'm very bullish about what he can do. The caveat being that he is 32 years old.
00:06:39
Speaker
So he's not in his prime anymore. But I think with all this, with all the off-field drama that Melbourne have had this year, off another back-to-back straight sets exit, I think him being the captain of that football club, they're going to come out firing over those first six rounds. He can get off to an absolute flyer. And the fact that they do have a bye so early means that you wouldn't expect him to have any in-game rests or anything like that at the start of the year. He's going to be good and he can get us off to a very, very good start and be close enough to Marshall in English.
00:07:10
Speaker
Very well put, Holmesy. I couldn't have said it better myself, mate. And looking at the With Without numbers, which have miraculously returned for us from DFS Australia over there, absolute fantastic work. 23 points better, basically, or just about without Brody Grundy last year was Max Gorn averaged nearly 112 without him and only 89 with. Now I saw some of the stat gurus out there sort of, you know,
00:07:38
Speaker
going against a bit of the width without numbers, because it doesn't take into account venue, opposition, strength, etc. I understand that. Like, I just like those raw numbers. It's with and without a player like, let's just, can we just... Yeah, we don't, you don't need to be too, too accurate with it. But the fact of the matter
Marty Hoare: A Sleeper Pick?
00:07:54
Speaker
is, he's going to be better without Brody Grundy in the side. He's going to be in that rock around the ball a hell of a lot more than what he was when Grundy was there. That's obvious. So really, I
00:08:03
Speaker
The only reason I'm not going to pick him to start the year is if we don't have a playing R3, then it's going to be quite tough to cover him and Brody Grundy. So potentially maybe you only want to start one with these early buyers, but hopefully we get a playing R3 that has some scoring potential and you can look at starting both.
00:08:19
Speaker
Yeah, well Jordan Sweets is going to be the number one ruck, so we can just pop him on the bench too there. Uh, all right. Marty whore, 307,000 bucks. He's not quite 10 plus percent ownership. In fact, Max Gorm was the only player from Melbourne with that type of number, with those type of numbers.
00:08:35
Speaker
Marty Hordo, $307,000. Look, we've already heard, there's already been some hype coming out of Melbourne about Hord this pre-season, about how much he just wanted his spot back. He dominated the VFL last season to really prove that he can do it again and harm me. He's my D6 at the moment. Is he in your squad? I'm surprised
Impact of Oliver's Absence on Petracca
00:08:55
Speaker
it's only 9% ownership, to be honest.
00:08:57
Speaker
Yeah, we did a pods podcast, I think it's the start of December, somewhere around there anyway. And I talked about Marty Hoarding that and I think his ownership was less than 2%. It's now creeping up. Yeah. It's over nine. So, fancy coaches are starting to twig and yeah, as you say, there was that media article that said he would crawl over broken glass to get in the senior team.
00:09:21
Speaker
Look, good signs for him. He averaged 103 in the VFL last year, 28 years old. I mean, why would they waste their time bringing him in if they weren't going to play him? So I think that there's a lot of good signs for Marty Hall this season.
00:09:38
Speaker
has not left my side since the game opened up. I think at the moment, until we see some games, he's a good player as any to have there at D6. That's actually a lie, Holmesy. You said pre-show you've got a blank team at the moment, so... He's left his side now. You got me, yeah. No, so it was 9.31% before I deleted my side.
00:10:01
Speaker
Let's look at the top three averaging players from last year in the demons and see if they're going to be relevant for us this year. Now, this is a very interesting one. The number one averaging player last year, Holmsey, I'm going to throw this one to you. This is a tough one to answer. Clayton Oliver averaged 114 from 13 games. He's over $1 million.
00:10:23
Speaker
Will you consider him as an option when he's back? We know right now we've seen him back in a little bit of training, certainly just ramping things up. Obviously, as outsiders, we have no idea what's going on behind the scenes, but look, we know how good a fantasy player and how good a footballer this bloke is when he's up and about.
00:10:39
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. If he gets his mental health right and he gets back to a stage where he's playing AFL footy, we don't know what's going on in the four walls, but I'll assume that he's done everything right. He's Clayton Oliver is back and I'll be looking for that perfect time to jump on him. Hopefully comes back a little bit slower and his price can drop a little bit because his price tag is quite hefty at the moment. But definitely I'll be looking at it. Hami wants to say something and he's always very negative when I say something positive. So I'm sure this will be great.
00:11:09
Speaker
Thanks, Armin. No, no, I wouldn't do that to you, Carl. Look, I was just going to say, it'd be great to pick him up as a bargain in a draft compo, a single-season draft. But there's always someone in the draft that chucks on the auto pick, and then he'll probably go way earlier than he should do. But yeah, keep an eye on him there and see if you can get him as a cheap flyer.
00:11:35
Speaker
Christian Petrarca
Adapting Midfield Roles without Oliver
00:11:36
Speaker
was the second highest averaging demon, 106 average last year. He comes in under a million bucks, not too far under though, harming 957,000 bucks. Look, we're talking, why don't we talk from the other side? Could he pick up his average a bit with all of her out of the side?
00:11:54
Speaker
I am dead interested. I am seriously interested in Petrarca, priced at 106, but let's say that there's no Oliver for the first four to six weeks. Let's say up until that first buy, he's the M1. There was patches last year, he averaged 106 patches last year where he was playing forward. That's just simply not going to happen.
00:12:20
Speaker
Yeah, I just think that he's averaged 102, he's averaged 110 in the past, but he could be well above that. So yeah, I'm interested, mate.
00:12:31
Speaker
Interesting stuff. Yeah, it's seems like coaches aren't keen to jump on the value options from Melbourne, despite the round six by I guess it's not as clear cut value. They're already quite highly priced. I suppose that is the difference. But look, without Oliver, I'm trying to look at these with without numbers again and pull them up. But they're no good. Don't do it, mate. They're no good. Don't do it. One hundred and thirteen. So thirteen points better without Clayton Oliver in the side. So
00:13:00
Speaker
Yeah, I know. Sorry, stat guys. Again, I do apologize for using those ones. We're a rookie. We're a rookie podcast, Dossie. We are. Yeah. Third highest averaging player. Another guy, to speak to Hami's point, if that does happen, it's all just hypothetical until we know where Oliver's at. But Jack Viney at 92 average, he can really score on his day,
00:13:24
Speaker
Is he priced at 92?
Rookie Prospects and Their Fantasy Value
00:13:26
Speaker
I thought he was a little bit higher than that. Maybe that's wrong. I think he's closer to 100. 100, yeah, but he flew home. So he still, his value and what he did in the last five games, he had an unbelievable patch. But yeah, I don't think he should be the M2.
00:13:45
Speaker
behind Petrarca you would think with their midfield. So potentially there is a little bit of upside, but I always, I tend to stay a little bit clear of these guys that have been in the comp for this long and they've never done it.
00:13:59
Speaker
you know, why is it going to happen now? And like Harmony said, if, if Clary comes back in round somewhere between rounds four to six, then you need to jump off in ASAP and potentially you can't. So he's not someone I'm looking at, but the data does suggest that he had a very good back after the year for a good last five or so games. 118 in his last five. Gee, I'm getting, I'm almost tempted to do that based on what Harmony said about Petrarca. If he is priced at, yes, apologies, a hundred.
00:14:25
Speaker
and priced $903,000 but gosh, if he has a big opening round, maybe here's one to consider.
00:14:34
Speaker
Yeah, interesting. Let's move on to the rookie prize players. There's quite a few that our fantasy coaches are kind of flagging, not too many jumping on just yet until we do see those opening round scores. We've already talked about Marty Hoare. What can you guys tell me about any of these players? I'm keen to know if you know anything about any of these ones, but we've got Caleb Windsor, $282,000 mid-forward. Bailey Lowery, he's been around for a few years now, $200K forward. We've got Colton Thalstrop,
00:15:02
Speaker
at $264,000 forward, Tajwa Woden, the son of $285K and Blake Howe's $200K defender. These are the ones that fantasy coaches want to hear about on the show. Who wants to have a go here? I'll give you the cop-out answer, Dossie, is that we're just going to have a look in round zero to see who's named. Who was the defender last year who ended up playing 23 games for them, starting at $200K?
00:15:29
Speaker
I can't remember his name. I think he scored a 14 in the preseason game. So none of us were actually looking at him, but he ended up being a slow burn and ended up playing 22 games and got his price up to about 380K. So they do give these young guys a crack. I'll try and find his name just off the top of my head. But yeah, if someone plays in round zero, definitely have a look because Melbourne haven't been afraid to give the rookies that do play extended opportunity.
00:15:55
Speaker
Was it McVie?
Analyzing Player Roles: Brayshaw & Salem
00:15:56
Speaker
Beautiful. I think it was McVie. Yeah, that's the one. McVie. Yeah, yeah, yeah, right. Look, Dossie, I have a couple of guys at this. Bailey Lawrie is an interesting one. He was a top 20 pick, highly touted, but he has been playing his craft in the VFL, averaged 87 last year, likely to be a midfield role though. And when he comes in, I can't really see him playing in the midfield for the Ds, but he did in the match scene the other day, played in the midfield there.
00:16:24
Speaker
I think he's available as a forward too, 200k forward, so not too bad if he gets a game. Who else did you talk about there? Al Thalstra, I think he's our role player. They targeted him, took him earlier than they potentially had to because they liked what he would do in the forward line at the Ds. Caleb Windsor is quite highly touted, like quite
00:16:49
Speaker
well-credentialed as a top-team pick, but not an enormous fantasy scorer from what I have seen. So there's a few comments. Beautiful, mate. More than anticipated. And I know Black House was one that Louis sent through, but apologies. Haven't done any research on that front. Sorry, D's fans, if that upsets you. Let's look at the points of difference though. Angus Brayshore, 770,000 bucks with the 85 average.
00:17:17
Speaker
Seems to be recovered, I think, from all that, uh, that off-season issue while in the finals there, the concussion issues cleared of all that. So, Holmes, is he an option though? Um, look, depends on his role, doesn't he? If he's playing as a defender or a midfielder filling, filling the shoes for a little bit.
00:17:33
Speaker
Yeah, it's so role dependent on Gussie Brayshore and that's been the knock on him in the past. He plays wing, he plays midfield, he plays back, he gets thrown around and to be honest, unless he has that really good inside role, he struggles a little bit. He went 99 the year before off the back of some pretty big midfield numbers. I think he started in defence to start the year, but he moved more inside towards the end and that allowed him to go big.
00:17:58
Speaker
But yeah, he's not one I'm looking at because of all the concussion stuff. And I just think he'll get thrown around a little bit. But yeah, 85 is definitely unders on what he did the year before. Looking at Christian Salem at 700K as well. Just the 78 average from him from 14 games. Obviously, injury affected year for Salem. Does he come in at Valley for us?
00:18:19
Speaker
No, I
Midfield Time: Trent Rivers & Tom Sparrow
00:18:20
Speaker
don't think so, mate. Price is 78, didn't you say? No. No, look, there was times last year when it didn't even look best 22, no offense to him. But yeah, I just don't think he's somebody I'm sure he's listening. Yeah, yeah. Sorry, Christian. Christian.
00:18:37
Speaker
Well, I'm going to talk about a guy that obviously I'm a fan of because he was in my team last year, probably a year too early there. Trent Rivers, 691K defender. Have you seen him in the guts in some trial simulation here, Holmes? Could he be one that gets more midfield time this year?
00:19:00
Speaker
Yeah, he could, Doss. He could get the midfield time, but whether that equates to a serious bump in scoring, he's pretty awkward. No, 691k. What's that price in the 70s somewhere? Yeah, 77. That's the thing. He's not cheap. You'd need him to go above 90 at a minimum from that price point, and I just don't.
00:19:19
Speaker
don't really see it with Patraka Vaini and then Clary coming back. You know, maybe he starts there and maybe he gets bumped out when Clary comes back. So I think it's just too awkward, Dossie. If he was in the sixties, maybe you'd look at it, but 77, you'd need a lot to go right.
00:19:34
Speaker
What's tough is I thought from memory last year he just got actually got a fair bit of midfield like center bounce exposure and I was looking at it and he really didn't get that opportunity like almost at all. So if he does, you know, if he center bounces really do go up and we do get to have a look at that role and what it looks like for him.
00:19:53
Speaker
you know, opening round, I'd definitely be tempted if, if he looks like a completely different player playing in that role. What's he doing in those set of bounces, Dossie? Do you really think they're going to hit to him over Petrarca and Vaini? Well, look, look what Hayden Young's do. Like he's, he's not the hit too. He's the tackler. And that's what they probably want Trent Rivers in there for as well. He's got that, got that penetrating kick as well. Similar to the Hayden Young mold of what Freo's trying to do with him. 3% for the total year Trent Rivers last year. So I do wonder whether they want a similar penetrating kick in there just like Freo's doing.
00:20:23
Speaker
We shall wait and see another player though that could get hashtag more midfield time Tom Sparrow Harmey at $601,000. They've invested a lot of time in putting him in the guts over and over and over again. Last year playing
00:20:40
Speaker
I think he played just about every game and 45% center-bounce attendances, so they like him in that midfield mix. Could anyone to finally bump that up and become a real part of the rotation, especially with James Arms out of the picture as well and as well as Jordan?
00:20:56
Speaker
Yeah, about 45%. He's already getting a fair chunk. He is somebody that they have invested in for a few years now, and he's had a decent run in there. If he gets a bump, I don't see it being a great deal. It's not like he's going to go from 15% CBAs to 70%.
00:21:14
Speaker
I think that there's not too much upside for him and just looking at the way that he plays, he's not a really high accumulator of possessions. He's a role player. I'm going to say no, priced at 67 in the midfield, mate.
00:21:34
Speaker
Right, Jack Billings,
Jack Billings' Role & Fantasy Potential
00:21:35
Speaker
potentially a relevant name here to talk about. Holmes, he then $538,000 forward, only the three games last year. But what role do you think he can have at the D's? And is he an option given we've got till round six with him? You know, is he an option? Jack Billings?
00:21:52
Speaker
Yeah, he is. I think I read somewhere over the last couple of weeks that he'd had a hammy injury already this pre-season. I'm not too sure about that, but if he suits up in the in the prackey games and round zero and we get a good look, I think you'll find that he's probably been recruited to try and fix that inside 50 delivery. We spoke about the fact that they were one of the better sides at getting it inside 50, but then it was coming out and they weren't really doing much with it. So I
00:22:18
Speaker
I think he's probably going to be that high half forward, that link up man in general play to try and get the ball off the half forward to deliver it inside 50. But yeah, we've spoken about this lack of midfield depth. Who really knows where it lands? But on his price point of 59 with our lack of forwards, if he's playing, he's someone we're going to have to look at because he's got scoring potential in the past and all it takes for him is to maybe regenerate a new club and get back to somewhere near his best army.
00:22:45
Speaker
Yeah, I just know that we've spoken about him before, and I wasn't very keen, but I guess for me, a couple of things have changed, because I agree. I think that's that forward roll, trying to get a better delivery inside their forward 50. So I wasn't very keen on him based on that. But now, no Oliver. And also, Locky
Fantasy Relevance of Melbourne's Player Movements
00:23:05
Speaker
Hunter has got a calf injury, and I reckon he's going to miss at least the first two games of the season. So there's a possibility that he does get that wing rolled as well.
00:23:14
Speaker
just keeping a bit of an eye on him. Yeah, I reckon, like I said at the top of the show, the popular picks for Melbourne at the moment, we've got one player over 10% in Mac School and I have a feeling opening around is going to really shift things around. I feel like the D's might actually be quite fantasy relevant because if you're
00:23:32
Speaker
You know, hypothetically, again, if you are missing your number one averaging fantasy player for last year, things are going to change. There's going to be points up for grabs. Yeah, points up for grabs, absolutely. Yeah, I think that's going to be really shifting when we get to have a look at them. A couple more names, just one frustrating one for us, Harmony last year, Cozy Pickett, 570K, bit of a bargain. I thought you were going to say Jake Bowie, but no, you look Cozy Pickett.
00:24:02
Speaker
I think there's two seasons in a row that they have talked up the cosy picket midfield time, but I haven't heard it this year because it's proven that it's not going to happen and he is an impact player as a small forward and a good one. So it's
Cozy Pickett's Midfield Time Potential
00:24:23
Speaker
not going to happen and he's fought us before and I'm not falling for it again.
00:24:30
Speaker
All right. Well, I think we should finish the show with the best pod of 2024, you know, Gussie brayshore into the midfield, Trent rivers into the midfield. That's leaving the back line open for Jake.
00:24:45
Speaker
to blow up. So can't wait to see that. Everyone jump on board Baoi after opening round when he drops a 150, takes every kick in. God, I love him.
Podcast Conclusion & Social Media Call to Action
00:24:54
Speaker
All right. Follow us on at Pod Pod AFL on Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok. Please leave a rating or a view if you're enjoying these 10 preview podcasts. We've only got
00:25:05
Speaker
three more to go than the marathon is over of these 10 previews and we can get back into business as usual. Until then, see you on the next podcast.