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Collingwood FC AFL Fantasy 2024 team preview | #PODPOD
2.9k Plays10 months ago
The reigning Premiers were also home to one of the most exciting AFL Fantasy prospects of all time, Nick Daicos.
Following an incredible rookie year and backing it up in year two, the third-year stud is currently 50% owned by the competition. Is this too high considering their opening-round bye? Is it too low considering he's looking like the clear D1?
Dos, Harmey, and Lewy break down all things Nick Daicos, then look at a bunch of other potential options at the Pies, including Jordan De Goey, Finlay Macrae, Josh Daicos, Jack Crisp, Tom Mitchell, and much more!
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Transcript
Introduction and Team Preview Conclusion
00:00:16
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. Talking all things AFL fantasy and onto our final of the team previews. We're talking about the Premiership pies and these fantastic stongs by Marmalade.
00:00:37
Speaker
have taken us all the way through our team previews.
DJ Checkers' Event at Victoria Park
00:00:42
Speaker
A massive thank you to Marmalade, to DJ Checkers. Louis, your former housemate, of course, joined by his former housemate. Now, Lou, he's got something special going on, old DJ Checkers, this weekend, and we'd like to thank
00:01:00
Speaker
Uh, him for obviously allowing us to use those songs throughout all our team previews. So if you are Melbourne based, head down to Victoria park, Sunday, 11th of February, 10 30 to 11 30 am. Check is is going to be there. The div 12 ress teaming up with Tom Mitchell as well. So they're doing a little initiative to make pre-season friendly for everyone. So head down to Victoria park, if you are.
00:01:25
Speaker
Melbourne based and uh enjoy that but thanks very much to DJ Checkers. Lou, they've been some bangers that we've uh that we've heard this preseason. Yeah, mate. Absolutely love it. Uh like I said in a few podcasts ago, I've still got PTSD of uh hearing it all at about four in the morning when uh Checkers was walking absolutely around the clock to punch those things out in time for the grand final and uh they they do they do get a very good run at the uh at the Ramsgate.
Collingwood Magpies Fantasy Analysis
00:01:54
Speaker
We're talking the Collingwood Magpies though, and I want to thank both of you guys for joining us. I've also got two-time top 10 hat winner John Harmy on this episode as well. Harmy, we are finally at the end of our team previews here.
00:02:09
Speaker
Yes, yeah, thanks, Dospy. And I guess getting ready to go back to back with your fantasy championship, finishing first overall last year. Well, didn't fly out the way. Feminition didn't come true, did it?
00:02:26
Speaker
didn't quite come true but i know the magpies this is this is all about the magpies this episode we're talking about them from a fantasy perspective so let's jump straight into it and get into some of the team numbers from last year as we know pious fans will be happy about this one first on the ladder and of course won the flag
00:02:46
Speaker
but from a fantasy perspective not for AFL fantasy scoring their key numbers fourth for tackles and sorry fourth for tackles and number one for tackle differential there so getting way more tackles than their opposition number one for intercept mark differential and mark on lead differential so we're taking
00:03:07
Speaker
More marks in their opponent and also getting those marks on the lead out in front. All their expected score ratings, which is something I haven't really spoken about too much during these team previews, but looking at how they did their work best. I'm not 100% on top of this expected score stat, but from my understanding, it's basically your shot difficulty and how well you convert from those chances.
00:03:30
Speaker
But basically they were right up there on all those things. So they essentially took good shots, made the most of their opportunities. They were also number one for goal accuracy. Won the flag. Lou, can the pies first of all go back to back? But more importantly, from our fantasy perspective, is anyone outside of Nick Daikos going to present premium value in that top six to eight category?
00:03:53
Speaker
Oh mate, they probably can go back to back. It's been two seasons now where they've proven that they can win in the intense moments. So obviously you win a flag based on your finals experience and getting it done and they've proven that for the best part of two years now. So yeah, potentially. In terms of fantasy relevance, probably not outside of Nick Dacos. There's not a whole lot.
00:04:17
Speaker
That was something that's been a bit of a shock to the system in previous years under Craig McCray. Obviously, when Nathan Buckley was coach, it was a much higher kick mark game. It's really sort of resulted in some quite high fantasy scoring.
00:04:33
Speaker
And I think we've seen it collectively drop with some of those players that were able to put up big numbers, all by Nick Daikos, which if you've ever watched a pies game, it's no surprise why with just how hard he works from contest to contest. It really seems like he is the gel in between that side and it's clearly working for them. So I'm expecting that to probably continue.
Collingwood Trade Review
00:04:54
Speaker
Let's look at their trade period and see what changed. Not a heap, obviously. You don't need to do too much when you are at the top. But their tradings, they brought in Lockie Schultz. So a bit of Kevin Duran in the NBA vibes. They're coming in after the flag win for Lockie Schultz. But no, he's come across from Freeman, all the outs. Jack Ginnivan out, Taylor Adams out as well. Unfortunately, it wasn't a part of the premiership side there. Taylor Adams, a long servant of Collingwood, but he's off to Sydney as well.
00:05:25
Speaker
The buy round. Hami, you're back to our buy round expert for this one. Obviously, the Stado's not on this episode. Also, Holmsey retiring early from the final team preview. He's done a lot of those as well, but Collinwood played the opening round, meaning they've got the round five buy and the round 15 buy.
00:05:44
Speaker
Yeah, so that round five by they share with the swans. So I guess you'll have to just be conscious about how many players you'd be looking to take in and if people are keen on Brody Grundy and some other picks there, I guess I'm fairly keen on a James Jordan too. So you just got to be wary about how many you're willing to take in that same round.
Fantasy Impact of Bye Rounds
00:06:05
Speaker
Then they move on to the round 15.
00:06:08
Speaker
uh by as well with quite a few fantasy irrelevant teams i think stato has spoken about that before because they share that one with the crows hawks um tigers saints bulldogs so quite a few fantasy relevant teams on that so again you need to consider um you know what premium plays you're willing to um have
00:06:29
Speaker
But let's just have a look at that. We talked about the round five and talked about that round 15. But what's the benefit then for that is that they play around zero, right? And they play against the Giants, which could be a sort of fairly fantasy relevant fixture. So we can see that. And if anybody you like pumps a big score, that might influence your decision about whether to start them in round one or not.
00:06:55
Speaker
Okay, I do like that little bit of context there as well. Let's get into the popular picks for the pies. There's only two people over 10% owned, Louis. And of course, one is the work rate machine you mentioned. Only just missed out on a Brown low medal. Perhaps should have been, should have had one around his neck after his amazing year last year. 50% owned his Nick Day cost, defender mid status, 109 average, 982,000 bucks.
00:07:24
Speaker
That's a high ownership percentage for a team with the opening round, but he might well be worth it.
00:07:30
Speaker
Yeah, and he's a player that I think a lot of coaches are scared of in both directions. If he does outperform his price and absolutely brains it while you don't own him. And conversely, if you do own him and he does regress a little bit based on a couple of things that we'll chat about in a bit. But curious boys, are you Nick Daikos owners this year?
Debate on Owning Nick Daikos
00:07:51
Speaker
Is he currently in your sides? Has he spent a lot of time on your sides? Do you think he will make the line for you?
00:07:58
Speaker
He's not in mine and he hasn't been all pre-season Louis, but let's talk to a man who's been there two times in the top 10 and see where harm is at. I'm sure he will be at some point in season Louis, but I am not keen to start him and I have not been keen the entire pre-season, so probably a bit different to some people, but his price point and that early buy are both negatives for me.
00:08:26
Speaker
Yeah, we know what how good Nick Daikos is. So I don't think we need to talk about it too much. But I know I don't know if you guys can remember. I think it was last season where a lot of people went out and picked Sam Docherty and he was priced at about 110. And one of the main reasons for that was because he was at the time we were thinking he's just so much better than all our other options. He could outperform them by 10 points and we want a little piece of that.
00:08:52
Speaker
And with Nick Dacos, the turn off here is definitely the buy. Otherwise, I think pretty much every single coach would have him in their sides. But if Nick Dacos can hit the ground running and let's say he goes 10 to 15 points above the rest of the competition, at least as defensive eligible players, then
00:09:13
Speaker
By the time he does come to that round five by, he's pretty much made up the difference of the game that he's missing as well as the emergency player that you're having coming on for that game.
00:09:30
Speaker
the amount of points lost in the long term if all things were to go fine is probably a little bit overstated but where I'm seeing the trend is that coaches are really worried about that tag and I think there's a lot of reason to be boys so if I'm looking at their fixture they've got the Sydney Swans round one, St Kilda round two, Brisbane three and Hawthorn four and then has the
Challenges for Nick Daikos
00:09:56
Speaker
bite and comes into Port Adelaide so
00:09:58
Speaker
uh those teams worry me for a couple of different reasons boys uh saints in round two winhager is apparently training in the midfield and he's training on jack steel so that gives me a little bit of a inkling into thinking that okay well maybe marcus winhager potentially plays a little bit of a tagging role we know how fit he is at the moment i think he just absolutely dominates the
00:10:24
Speaker
the time trials at the Saints and we know that that's definitely Nick Daikos's bread and butter is that he's able to run off of players and and pretty much punish them on the other end because they can't keep up so that's flag number one round two when he's priced at probably the highest magic number that there is because we do know that it goes up post round one
00:10:45
Speaker
uh then he comes into the Lions which we spoke about Dunkley on the last podcast he's not much of an attack he's not much of a tagger but he is that accountable midfielder so just maybe a smaller flag there then Hawthorne is the big one uh he comes into Finn McGinnis and last season that is what
00:11:04
Speaker
really burnt coaches because we saw what he was able to do in the preseason there. I don't know if you've got the numbers on what Nick Dacos scored, but it was in the 40s. It was really grim and it convinced a lot of coaches that that was going to be a sign of things to come.
00:11:21
Speaker
It actually wasn't and it really hurt coaches on the other end. I think that sort of really feels the fire of why coaches this year are so scared not to start him. But this time round he meets potentially if he's named Finn in round four.
00:11:36
Speaker
and we did see in season last season in round 21 that Finn went to him and was keeping him really quiet and fortunately Daikos did get injured in that game so the data maybe isn't as rock solid as we'd like but probably the biggest flag nonetheless then he has the bye and one thing I haven't really seen mentioned is that Port Adelaide don't mind running a tag either and that would probably be a Willam Drew so to come out of that with
00:12:03
Speaker
Another poor score would be a bit of a disaster when you're when you're selecting a player price at 110 Daikos got 58 fantasy points in the preseason Game that I think you're alluding to because I just looked it up. It was on DT talks numbers still there from March last year. So yeah, that was that was when he got clamped and obviously the games in season are there as well, but I
00:12:28
Speaker
I know what you mean. He's, he's just a incredibly hard one. We'll talk about him cause there's, you know, there's not a stack of other players in Collingwood in that premium category. Harmony, your final thoughts on Nick Daikos and what, you know, Louie's just given us laid out the land for the potential tag. You, I remember you mentioned on Hawthorn podcast, you don't think Finn McGinnis maybe not a regular in the Hawthorn side
Mid-Season Strategies for Nick Daikos
00:12:51
Speaker
this year, but could they bring him up just for this matchup anyway?
00:12:54
Speaker
Oh, absolutely. You have to say that he's got the upper handed, the minute fin in that battle twice last season. He frustrated him and kept him to a low score. So I think that's probably a fair assumption that's going to happen. Another thing about Daikos, I mean, he's a great player.
00:13:13
Speaker
But he sort of does accumulate a lot of touches, doesn't he? So, I mean, that's got to be the go. If teams want to shut down the pies, then they're going to be running a tag on him. I would have thought.
00:13:27
Speaker
And all season last season, even though the media was screaming, when's anybody going to put a clamp on him? And it didn't really occur too much, but sometimes it does just overcorrect itself the following year. Something I want to ask you boys is as people that coaches that aren't starting Nick Daikos, at least at this point, what is the plan of action to actually bring him into your side? Because we're under the assumption that this guy is going to be the top averaging defender.
00:13:56
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, so you're gonna want him at some point. He's a captain option as well But have you guys had a thought about how you're actually going to get him into your side post round six or seven? Yeah, I don't think that far ahead Oh
00:14:12
Speaker
We do it every season. These top-line players, they're all achievable at some point during the season. For me, it's probably just going a straight swap from Elliott Yeo to Nick Dacos after that period that you spoke to when Elliott Yeo's popped in. He's averaging 100. I'll just go straight across.
00:14:32
Speaker
But does it have to be an Elliott Yeo as well is what I'm thinking. We've got Dan Curtin who's going to be in probably 50% of sides and he's got that deaf mid status. So if you are a coach that had a ward law, for example, he's probably the it guy at the moment. You do have that DPP flexibility to trade out or put some money on top of his head and use a little bit of DPP to work your way.
00:14:56
Speaker
The other thing that I've been looking at too is some of those round six, sorry is it round five? When do the Tigers have their buy round boys? Is it round six or five? But point being that there's a round six. So there's a nice jump off point for me with Jaden Short there I think. So post the Port Adelaide game if there is a tag.
00:15:20
Speaker
Jaden Short under priced based on his own merit I believe but you could play the fixture game a little bit like how people are talking about a Tom Green in those first two rounds and then jumping off to a Sam Walsh. Potentially that action could be applied with a Jaden Short assuming he is near enough top six jumping off into a Nick Daikos as well.
00:15:43
Speaker
Yeah, no, look, seriously, Lou, when I didn't answer your question properly before, what you would do is if you're starting mid price players, I'm going to use a Heath Chapman say and I don't know, another one.
00:15:55
Speaker
not Patty Dowell, but somebody like that in the mid field. If you've got two mid price players and you're getting to that point, I think you said around six or seven based on the timing of what you said there, it's going to be a good point where your Heath Chapman type is maxed out and maybe your other mid price as well. You go one down to the next available rookie who's about start popping and then you'll go Chapman straight up today. It's something like that, but we need a lot to play out between now and then.
00:16:27
Speaker
All right, that's enough on Nick Daikos, plenty to talk about. I think the last scary thing probably and potential where we could all get burned if we don't start him is that 42% total CBA average for Nick Daikos in terms of center bounce attendances getting inside in the midfield for his season average was 42%.
00:16:46
Speaker
You got guys like Pendle's up at 65%, Tom Mitchell getting a bit older at 57%.
Speculation on Nick Daikos' Role
00:16:51
Speaker
If he just becomes pure mid straight off the bat, maybe he comes out and pops a few 130 straight off in a row and like his work rate just breaks those tags. Let's wait and see.
00:17:01
Speaker
The other most popular pick for the pies, Finlay McCray, 19.4% owned, harmi $310,000 forward. You know, there's some thought maybe he also feels that void of a few of the older players in there maybe comes in for some midfield time.
00:17:18
Speaker
It's definitely, you know, the writing's on the wall with that one because he's stuck around. Like he has shown some faith with them to stay on their list when he potentially could have gone to other suitors. McRae, Fly McRae talked him up at the end of last season. He got some sort of awarded there, BNF, didn't he? So, you know, Taylor Adams out, Finn McRae in.
00:17:42
Speaker
But it's not really going to be like that, is it? I mean, they've brought in Rocky Schultz and Finn McCray is still a borderline best 22 player. But I mean, every fantasy coach, I think, is happy with the idea of Finn McCray. He's a forward priced at $3.10. And if he has a best 22 position, particularly if he's anywhere near that midfield, he could definitely be a really good cash riser for us this season.
Fantasy Value of Other Collingwood Players
00:18:07
Speaker
Let's look at the top averaging players from last year at the pies. Obviously spoken at nauseam about Nick Daikos already, but I think it was a worthy discussion there. 50% owned to really dive deep into that 109 average. The next best average was his brother, Josh Daikos at 94.7. So.
00:18:27
Speaker
Second best average, about 14 points worse than the number one there, Daikos, Lu. Any interest in Josh Daikos? And furthermore, Tom Mitchell who came in at three with a 92 average, any interest in anyone other than Nick Daikos in that premium, guys? Not particularly, mate. Josh Daikos, 95 averaging wingman.
00:18:49
Speaker
Wingman put a bit of a bad taste in fantasy coaches' mouths these days, and I wouldn't be surprised if that 95 average was the highest of all the Wingman. Absolutely phenomenal season. From a fantasy perspective, 95, but more so a football perspective. All Australian, I just wonder where the upside is now. I think, if anything, he's either going to continue along the way or regress without a major role change here.
00:19:17
Speaker
Tom Mitchell as well. He was getting the job done and he doesn't need to be that guy who constantly pigs around for those cheap marks and cheap touches. Collingwood's not that sort of game
Rookie Prospects at Collingwood
00:19:30
Speaker
style. I think they rely a lot more on Jordan to go than what they do with Tom Mitchell and that just wasn't the case when we did see the pig playing around in the style at Hawkes a couple of years ago.
00:19:42
Speaker
Let's look at some of the rookie options then, Hami. You've been a big Nathan Kroger fan this process, isn't it? 261,000 ruck forward there. Massive Nathan Kroger fan, I believe it. But the thing about him is he got injured. Would you believe that?
00:19:59
Speaker
So look, I look only because we had McStay going out and they talked about Kruger as being one of those options along with Ash Johnson and a couple of others. Well, actually one of the others in that forward line that's interesting is I think it was Reeve McKinnon's kicked five goals the other day in one of the intro club games. I'm not sure who was lining up against him, but he's a 285,000 forward, I think as well. So he may be worth a look.
00:20:25
Speaker
Ed Allen. Yeah, they got a few options, but once again, these are the premiers. Not like there's a heap of spots just opening up. These guys are going to have to put in some pretty awesome performances to be able to crack a spot in the team and what's their chances of holding down a spot once they get it. Jacob Ryan's another one. Yeah, I mean, some good players there that are sort of the next in, but the opportunity has got to be there as well.
00:20:56
Speaker
Yeah, Jacob Ryan, by the way, a $200,000 defender that a lot of coaches wanted to hear about on the socials there. So average 72 in the VFL last year, 14 games. But I know he came up for one game last year, scored 19 points. Presumably I think it was either sub that game, I think. Anyway.
00:21:14
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, I think he was. That's the thing though, like so, Noble couldn't get a game. You know, where is Jacob Ryan sick compared to him? I would have thought he's down, down the order. Johnson, as you mentioned as well, slightly different player. So, yeah, it's going to be interesting for some of those rookies, isn't it, Hami? Even some, you know, you touched on it. There's big concerns for me even with a Finn McCray. I can see how we can find a way into that midfield, but
00:21:43
Speaker
particularly, but with some of these names being thrown about that you've mentioned too, like a Reef McInnis and Ed Allen, they're all getting a little bit of hype. It just smells really vesty and when you're paying 310K for a rookie, and there's a buy in there, it just puts you a little bit off.
00:22:05
Speaker
It's tough. You might want to look for value in those rebuilding sides for those rookies.
Underrated Fantasy Picks
00:22:09
Speaker
Yeah, it's going to be a tough one. But if Vin McRae, like he said as well, Hami has got a role, he's probably definitely the one that stands off the page in that bracket.
00:22:17
Speaker
Um, the points of difference for Collingwood, as we said, uh, Nick Daikos really up there in terms of being the clear out and out guy there, but they have clearly a star studded cast that got the job done for them. Jordan de Goey at 783,000 only had an 87 average last year. Harmony, is there maybe some value?
00:22:42
Speaker
Well, that's all he needs to be though, isn't he? Like, I think there was a point in time when they saw him as having to be everything. He's got to be the accumulator. He's got to do the defensive work. He's got to be the burst player. But now I think that they're comfortable with him being that forward, that pinch. It's like, yes, a fair few CBAs, but is that burst out of stoppage? And that's a good result for the team. Fits their system and they were successful. So why change it?
00:23:10
Speaker
Similar to like a Jack Crisp, Lou, he's been a fantasy stud for many years, but was down at 83 average, um, 748,000 bucks. It's going to cost you to get Jack Crisp was always a fantasy stud for many years. But in this game plan, you know, I guess not.
00:23:28
Speaker
Yeah, he's a bit in between Jack Crisp in terms of halfback and midfield. And when you're coming in price at 83, you really want to spin a narrative on where there is upside. And I'm just not sure where to put my chips. Is he going to be playing midfield? Is he going to be more in that halfback role?
00:23:45
Speaker
as you mentioned overarching fact there is that Collingwood just aren't a massively massive fantasy scoring side so Jack Crisp definitely took advantage of the Nathan Buckley system and we can see why he was able to to reach such high ceilings and to average pretty consistently above 95 but now in this system I'm just not sure where he lies and yeah what about you Hammeh are you keen on Jack Crisp?
00:24:11
Speaker
I think that he's probably worth a look in a draft comp because I've got a feeling he'd go back. I think that, you know, they pushed him through that midfield, but he doesn't need to be that midfield in their team anymore. So I wouldn't be surprised if he goes back and gets defensive status and he's not a bad scorer. But I guess there's a little, you know, there's a bit to that isn't there that's got to play out to be successful. But, you know, I think that that's probably worth a shout.
00:24:38
Speaker
Yeah, good shout out. Let's talk about three forwards to finish off for the pies here.
Collingwood's Forward Options
00:24:43
Speaker
Is any of these guys in a forward line dire of options? We've mentioned it a few times.
00:24:49
Speaker
Locky Schultz, the new arrival, KD, coming across the new chapter at the Pies, Hami, maybe a Locky Schultz, a favorite of mine, Patti Lapinski is real cheap at $629,000. And Bo McCreary, who I've seen play a little bit through the midfield this preseason as we see every player just about get some inside minutes at $473,000.
00:25:15
Speaker
any Collingwood value forwards tempt you there, harm me, and then maybe throw to Lou for his thoughts.
00:25:21
Speaker
Well, out of those that you've listed, mate, it'd probably be McCreary only because he's at the cheapest price point. But I think that there's going to be other forwards that you'll find available between that $400,000 to $500,000 price bracket. They're going to be better picks. Yeah, I think Lucky Short's max price based on his top season last year. So no, I'm not really inclined to look at any of those three, to be honest, mate.
00:25:48
Speaker
I'm not sure where to see Lockie Shultz. I think I'll revert back to that Collingwood game style. I'll look at someone like Jamie Elliott who's an absolute star. He only went at 66 and it's important to remember too, Shultz is pretty much coming out of one of our favorite fantasy sides in Freeman's will because they do play a little bit slower football.
00:26:10
Speaker
that seventy eight maybe he can replicate that but i tend to think that there's a little bit of a regression there patty lepinski i'm just not sure where he sits anymore i'm not even convinced he's best twenty two week in week out is bull you sleeves a lot to be desired and he might be that guy that
00:26:29
Speaker
Collingwood employs the sub a little bit more often than not and Bo McCreary, I just think he's a really valuable forward. I think Jordan de Goey brings something in that midfield that Bo does as well. So I'm not sure that he's going to be getting substantial amount of midfield time. He didn't really get any last year. One game he popped with 30%, which was pretty much his top CBA getting game. It was in round 21 when Nick Dacos got injured.
00:26:56
Speaker
anyone at sixty one so not a lot of data there but i think you have to see something significant from above my career but more reports is burning up track so we always hear that about forty players this time of year but yeah four seventy three k it's really awkward a hundred k less than i think we'd be talking.
00:27:16
Speaker
That is going to do it for our team preview series.
Wrap-up and Future Content
00:27:20
Speaker
It's been quite the marathon for the lads here. We are finally done with it, but if you did enjoy it, if you did, if you did enjoy these team preview series, make sure you're following along on Spotify, subscribed on Apple.
00:27:35
Speaker
wherever you listen so you know when our latest episodes are coming out. I know with the next ones that's coming up is Holmes. He's already recorded his latest episode of the Holmes files where he's going to be doing some interview stuff there. So keep an eye out for that one. Also be following along at Pod Pod AFL on X, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, just get around us on the socials as well.
00:28:01
Speaker
really appreciate you listening along leave those ratings leave those reviews they really help us out and we will continue with just regular scheduled programming next week so that'll be a bit of a bit of a refreshing take for us lads i think i'm really looking forward to that one we've got a exciting podcast for you so stay tuned to all things pod pod
00:28:24
Speaker
Hope you enjoyed the series and we'll be seeing you again soon. Thank you for listening.