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Western Bulldogs AFL Fantasy 2024 team preview | #PODPOD
2.8k Plays1 year ago
Bevo is bound to give AFL Fantasy coaches more nightmares in 2024 as he undoubtedly shuffles the magnets once more this pre-season. But will Jack Macrae - the top averaging forward eligible player available to us - benefit from this shuffle?
Dos, Lewy, Statesman, and Harmey discuss this, plus plenty more Bulldog AFL Fantasy talk, including Tim English, Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar, Tom Liberatore, Ryley Sanders, Ed Richards, Caleb Daniel, and much more!
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Transcript
Introduction and Team Overview
00:00:16
Speaker
and welcome to the pod pod it is your boy Dossie here talking all things AFL fantasy continuing our stream of team previews talking the Bulldogs and with me
00:00:33
Speaker
As always, I have members of the Pod Squad. We're missing Homsey on this episode, but we do have five-time top 100 finisher, Stado. We've got two-time top 10 finisher, Harmony with us as well. And we've got the OG Pod Pod member, Louie on deck. We're going to go through the team numbers first and then start talking some bullies. And there's plenty of relevant players to talk about this year. Let's get into the team numbers, though, from 2023. Ninth on the ladder, just missed out on finals.
00:01:02
Speaker
eighth for fantasy points they were the third worst team for kicking efficiency and they were pretty low on meters gained per disposal so a fair bit of our poor ball use last year despite having the elite peg of a one Caleb Daniel in the squad
00:01:19
Speaker
So not some great damaging kicks that they don't they don't sort of possess a heap of them in the squad but second most clearances and second best clearance differential verse their opponents only behind Brisbane so we know they have a solid midfield going and then they are also number one in the league for Luke beverage.
00:01:39
Speaker
Roll changes
Player Trades and Team Changes
00:01:40
Speaker
as they always are so getting into the dogs this podcast stayed oh I'm gonna go to harm me for this take can the doggies improve from that mediocre sort of team they were last year just missing out on finals bounce back to contend in twenty twenty four.
00:01:57
Speaker
You paint a pretty nice picture there, Dossie, hey? And look, they've got quite a lot of good fantasy scorers, too, going back last year. So look, they could do. I think that their list is better than where they finished last year. So if they've got a decent coach, then they should be in the finals mix, yeah.
00:02:17
Speaker
Alright, and for our fantasy teams, let's see what impacts happened over the trade period. The trade ins. We've got Nick Coffield coming across from the Saints. We'll be talking a bit about him on this episode, I'm sure. James Harms coming across from Melbourne, who I know you lads have
00:02:35
Speaker
had in and out of your team in the past in fantasy circles when he gets that mid-time tended to do okay at Melbourne at times, and then they've course got a bunch of rookie picks, namely the number five pick Riley Sanders. We'll also be talking a bit about him because he's a popular pick at the moment in fantasy.
00:02:52
Speaker
Now, some of the outs, Jordan Sweet obviously didn't get a clean run at the Ruck, having Tim English in the pitcher there, so he's off to the power. Josh Bruce retired, Hayden Crozier retired as well, and then unfortunately, Lou, your boy, Toby McLean, you was confident picking him last year. What do you want to say to him now that he's out of the pitcher? Just praying that he makes the mid-season draft, old Toby, good player, good memories,
Fantasy Strategies and Bye Weeks
00:03:20
Speaker
2019.
00:03:21
Speaker
There must be a couple of these spots available somewhere. Surely he's training with one of clubs. I'm not sure. I should have a look at that. He's definitely good enough. He finished the year pretty strongly, but this isn't the Toby McLean show. Let's talk about some players on an AFL list.
00:03:38
Speaker
Well speaking about a player in an AFL list that unfortunately won't be playing as well I've just listed him in the outs because he will be missing this year and I know he was in a lot of our teams to start before he injured his ACL so Bailey Smith out for the season as well and you know where unfortunately we.
00:03:54
Speaker
Loser player we do open an opportunity for others so plenty to talk about in this episode but first before we get into it as we've done with all the teams we get out by around expert the statesman to talk about the dogs by around thankfully no opening round by they've got the round fifteen by you've already talked about a couple of times on around fifteen by the let's get you take on the dogs here.
00:04:16
Speaker
Yeah, so obviously it's good to back them in early season. So mid prices in rookies, if they've got good ones, we know there's a couple there. You should get on them because they're gonna give you the price rises all the way through. Hopefully the mid prices give us a reason to keep them. The drama being, be careful you don't load up too much. We've talked about round 15, some very fantasy relevant clubs on round 15 buy.
00:04:44
Speaker
So you might be thinking you're tracking really well, hit round 15, fine, you've only got 16, 17 players and shooting way down the rankings. So a bit of bioplaning for round 15. I think the others, to be quite honest,
Riley Sanders and Emerging Talent
00:05:01
Speaker
aren't too much of a pain. So that's the one you just need to keep an eye on, which makes some really interesting decisions when it comes to when does a Bont and when does a Timmy English come into our squads.
00:05:15
Speaker
Let's jump into talking about the popular picks from the Bulldogs. They have five players over 10% owned at the moment. So, obviously, a popular team for fantasy classic coaches. Let's talk about the number one on that list. 47% owned. Riley Sanders, he's $285,000. He was the number five pick.
00:05:38
Speaker
In the draft, Hami, your thoughts on Sanders? We've heard a lot of buzz out of Bulldogs camp and out of track watchers out there saying that he's tearing up the track early days. Yeah, look, the only way that I won't start him on field is if he gets injured. He's done everything that you ask of him, like he's put up big scores in every competition he played in last year. He's dedicated, you know, like he moved to Melbourne in order to
00:06:05
Speaker
further his career I just think that he's come in hit the ground running at the bullies and geez he may even get a run around the ball he'll be at least you know around the midfield somewhere on the wing or or around the ball anyway working out the field around CBAs that aren't from a restart so yeah I just think that he's a really good pick at the moment
00:06:27
Speaker
Let's look at some of his, just some of his state league numbers from last year or his junior scoring numbers. We always like to look at those to see how they're going to translate at AFL level. And to your point, being a potential on field candidate, he
Jack McRae's Fantasy Value
00:06:40
Speaker
averaged 107 AFL fantasy points in the state league from his nine games, getting over 30 touches, four marks, five tackles in that.
00:06:48
Speaker
then when you transfer that across to the under 18 championships, he played four games, still went over, he went 35 touches a game, six marks four tackles, 125 fantasy points. So really strong fantasy pedigree from Riley Sanders. And I think we're probably all on the same board, all on the same path here. If he's named, he's definitely an on field rookie candidate, even given his midfield status. Jack McRae, Louis,
00:07:16
Speaker
eight hundred and twenty nine thousand dollars forty two percent ownership. He's the most expensive forward that we have. And I know he gave us a few headaches last year as owners. Yeah, he did. So it'd be interesting if we had a few more options up forward, what that ownership might actually look like, because if we flash back to December, there were plenty saying is on the never again list that I particularly blame them either. It was a bit of a shocking finish to the year that resulted in a sub out. But
00:07:45
Speaker
It's a new year and he went at ninety two right so it's not too bad for a fall we've been blessed in the last couple years we've had a couple of guys who have managed to go it you know between a hundred and a hundred and ten which is been super impressive but
00:08:00
Speaker
Jack McRae is a gun. We know he's a gun. He has been for the greater part of his career. Jaden Popowski has done some fantastic stats on Twitter about what might be resulting in why he is regressing a bit. But I was just looking at some of their midfield mix here.
00:08:19
Speaker
Looks like Bevo has really found his preferred three here. So he's got Trelore at 78% CBA, Liber at 78% and Bont at 81%, which is a really tight-knit midfield growth. In fact, you have to go down to 36% where McRae sits to be able to, for the next person in that center bounce.
00:08:42
Speaker
Bailey Smith injured, you mentioned earlier, he took 30%. Do we think that McRae gets a little bit of that slice of the pine can bump his numbers back up to the 50 to 60% we probably want him to go at, or are we predicting that Jack McRae is going to be sort of 30%, maybe that high half forward wing roll again? That's the unanswerable question at this time of year, isn't it?
00:09:10
Speaker
I just wanted to point a clarification there, Lou, just that game when he got subbed out, that was from a, he failed a concussion test. So, and I know that because I had him for every game that he played last year, which was quite heartbreaking for most of the season.
00:09:26
Speaker
So in terms of starting Jack McRae, do you think there's much upside there? And even if there's not, do you think given that we've got a bit of a poor bunch of forwards, we're certainly going to be taking a punt on probably two or three guys anyway. Are we feeling now that he's at 42% that there's a little bit of safety in numbers and we can sort of fall back on him having a relatively high floor and if 92 is just enough for us to start this year?
00:09:55
Speaker
I think that's where I'm landing at the moment as someone that usually tries to go against
Star Players: Bontempelli and English
00:10:00
Speaker
the grain. Often it burns me and like you're saying, safety in numbers with Jack McRae, I think probably is the play unless we see some other candidate stand out in the pre-season. Stado, what are your thoughts on that in terms of safety in numbers with Jack McRae? Because we know what he can do.
00:10:18
Speaker
as an absolute fantasy gun in the past. He's available at 92. You'd think, in general, that's an amazing price to get Jack McRae. So he's bargain basement price, basically. And even if he plays forward, you'd think he can probably replicate a similar average anyway.
00:10:35
Speaker
Yeah I suppose the deciding factor here is does he get any more CBAs and the evidence doesn't hint towards that so I don't think he's really got an extra ceiling. The really interesting question would be if Flanders didn't have a early buy
00:10:55
Speaker
of what type of ownership would Macrae actually have because we're all searching for that. We just want someone in there that's going to give us a result. And the reality is the Ford line is so thin that finding that rock solid person that's going to be there all year is very hard to find. And that's why a lot of us, even though I don't think any of us expecting it goes back to his old ways, are landing on
00:11:24
Speaker
Jack McRae to be our F1, including myself at the moment.
00:11:32
Speaker
go through I mean I know this is about the Bulldogs right but I'll go through the top six Fords at the minute so you tell me if you like these guys any more than Jack McRae apart from Flanders Dusty Martin don't reckon Caleb Daniel don't reckon Toby Green Dylan Moore Charlie at Kerno so I mean it's a difficult decision to go against him isn't it Doss
00:11:57
Speaker
If they're both forwards, I might like Dylan Moore. That's the only name. If they're both playing forward, that's probably the only person that I could say could challenge him in the same role if they're playing the same role. This is a year if Paddy Dale had forward status, he would finally be relevant to someone other than Doss.
00:12:19
Speaker
By the way, pull one out for the great man, the injury report today for Patty Dow coming out. So, not going to be training for four weeks apparently. One way we may be able to look at this with Jack McCray at 42% ownership is a really quick pivot early on in the season. So by round one, two, we're going to have two games of data. I understand that's not much, but we've seen in previous years that some of the best coaches identify
00:12:48
Speaker
who's going to break out really early on in the piece and who's not going to continue on how they've expected them to score when they pick them. So being the top price forward this season, here's someone we can drop down to and maybe find a little bit of change on the other end.
00:13:03
Speaker
unless you get injuries quite often we do find that those post round 1 trades are really difficult to try and improve your side running a week out from your starting squad anyway. So you may be able to do a quick pivot and find the guy that does pop and then all of a sudden you may have a point of difference
Value Picks and Rookies
00:13:20
Speaker
to 42% of the rest of the competition.
00:13:23
Speaker
And just a quick dive into DFS Australia with without stats that are just back on board for 2023. Looking at games without Bailey Smith in 2023, there was only four that I can see here, three of which Jack McRae was playing in and he was actually nearly eight points worse without.
00:13:45
Speaker
Um, Bailey Smith. So that's just a little interesting nugget there. Looks like a few other people took the role. Like your Riley West is 25 points better. So, uh, yeah, interesting the direction that Bevo took last year. So we'll see what happens this year. Moving on to Marcus Bontempelli, the most expensive player in the comp 1.06, a million dollars, 27% owned and Stado is here a potential option for coaches as the
00:14:14
Speaker
You know, to back up this amazing year of fantasy footy, could he go again and can he be a captain option for us? My short answer is no. Um, so very rare to players, repeat, um, such a big breakout. Um, and I think you add the, well, two other factors he's coached by Bevo and they're already talking about more forward time.
00:14:37
Speaker
And the other point is he's actually missed a bit of pre-season. So he hasn't had the ideal preparation as he does last year. Do I think he's a target throughout the season? Absolutely. But with a, I haven't detailed too much into the match-ups for the Bulldogs at the moment. But the reality is to me, I can see his price dropping.
00:15:05
Speaker
Anyone else got another take on the bond?
00:15:09
Speaker
at the same time? I think he's super expensive obviously, but if you were desperate for a captain option early last season, he was, I wouldn't be surprised if he had the highest floor of all the players. So I'm looking here, he had an 86 as his lowest score. Quite often in that round, round one matchup, we are worried about who our captain options are going to be because we don't often have that VC loop that early. So if you were really bullish on Marcus Montempelli, then you probably have to put the C on him as well.
00:15:39
Speaker
I can't see him going forward. He'll be in the midfield as well. So that's probably something I'd discredit. He might be swapping with Aaron Norton. All right, going on to the next most popular player, 18% of coaches keen on starting Nick Caulfield-Harmy at 358K, available as a defender. He's played, well, he's played since 2018 for the Saints. He's played 10 games, eight games,
00:16:07
Speaker
16 games in 2020, then another 16 in 2021, did not play in 2022, did not play in 2023. So he's coming in super cheap, was a really strong prospect early days, but never kind of broke through. Do you see him having a role with the dogs? Well, he did play in 2023. He played some VFL, I believe. So he sort of tried to come back from injury and then
00:16:34
Speaker
got a different injury. So just to put that out there, he's sort of done a bit of
Forwards and Role Speculations
00:16:40
Speaker
training, well he's training fully with the Bulldogs. Four games in VFL last season by the looks, I hope I've got the right year up here, yeah, 2023. Six games, 17 kicks, six handballs, six marks, 84 fantasy points for Sandringham.
00:16:58
Speaker
Yeah, look, yeah, and the training reports are he's trying to well, that sort of thing. And he's got a role in the back loan with the Bulldogs at the moment. So.
00:17:06
Speaker
If he is best 22, I'm pretty interested at his price point, 358,000. I think you could definitely take a punt on him. And if it fails, well, geez, he's almost rookie price. So you sort of haven't lost anything from having a go at him, but you really need to be confident that he has a role in that team for the first kind of six weeks, probably, in order to make some money there. But he's definitely a player that I'm watching.
00:17:34
Speaker
And hopefully he plays those pre-season game and we can have a look at what he's doing.
00:17:40
Speaker
Yeah. Can you see how it goes? Let's get onto the last most popular player in fantasy circles at the dogs. Like I said, this is the fifth. So there's quite a few that coaches are keen on. Tim English. And I'll correct myself. This is the most expensive player in AFL fantasy. The bond comes in at number two. So 1.07 million, Louis. He was the best rock last year. You know, is it worth paying up the coin? We do have some juicy mid-priced options though in that department.
00:18:08
Speaker
Oh, he's probably another one like Bond where he's probably fully priced and the only difference being is that he's in a line that we've only got two selections. So if you value your trades, you want to start the man who we're going to presume is going to be the R1 this year and a captain option, then I don't mind starting Tim English. I think we're going to get something similar to what we experienced in 2023.
00:18:34
Speaker
The only flag I would have is that these concussion issues that he's had over the preseason are a little bit of a concern and there's been a bit of chitchat about Rory Lobb chopping out into that ruck roll a little bit more as well. So it won't take too many ruck contests for that to regress a little bit, but it's only a tiny asterisk.
00:18:56
Speaker
Yeah, look, I was thinking about this today, Lou with our ruck line, and I'm not ruling it out at this point. I was quite turned off by him not training with the main group, but now he's back in there and everything's saying he's fit. I'll still continue to think about that.
00:19:13
Speaker
He hadn't interrupted pre-season last year as well. Was it a hamstring or something like that a couple of weeks before round one? And then just totally hit the ground running. So maybe we're jumping at shadows here, but I don't think you're going to be regretting starting Tim English as your R1.
00:19:31
Speaker
Okay, looking at the top three averaging players from last year, I've already spoke about two of them. Tim English averaged 119, Bont 117. So Adam Treloar was the third highest averaging player at the dogs. He's at 950Ks. He worth a shout at all, Stado, especially given the Bailey Smith injury there. I think he's worth a big shot. The problem is the hamstrings and Jack McRae's best friends will be Adam Treloar's hamstrings.
Midfield Analysis and Strategy
00:20:01
Speaker
Yeah, good call. Let's look at the rookies at the Western Bulldogs. Just adding a little segment in here just to talk about the rooks. We, you know, just slot them into this category. So, Louis, I think you've been keen to talk about this, the Bevo rookie roulette. You reckon there's probably going to be one of these rookies that are going to that are going to come good for us. Do you want to walk through them for us?
00:20:23
Speaker
Yeah, well, I don't really know much about these guys and that seems to be the trend with rookies at the dogs over the years. It feels like Bevo plucks these guys out of nowhere and they end up playing 15 games for the year and looking at some of these rookie price players, there's been a little bit of hype about them in the dog circles, but Riley Garcia at 310, Dom Badendo at 262.
00:20:47
Speaker
Locky McNeil, who's played a bit of footy, I think highly sub-affected as well. So he might present a bit of value at 248k. And then a couple of draftees in Harvey Gallagher, 2022. Jed Buslinger, I think he was 2022 as well. He's got quite a bit of hype, I've noticed. And then Jordan Croft just in the draft gone.
00:21:07
Speaker
was highly rated as well so some of these guys may get games throughout the year so just keep an eye on them for a downgrade option and then Artie Jones at 304k too is probably getting up there is a small forward I think Dossie so I wouldn't have him on the run sheet but yeah just just keep an eye out for these guys
00:21:26
Speaker
All right, looking at the points of difference now and Tom Liberatore. For me, I'll just take this one. I reckon pretty much career year last year, just about there for Libba. $932K. I just would struggle to pay up for a guy over 30 years old now in that midfield. Stado, what are your thoughts on that? Just a yes or no? No to Libba? No to Libba.
00:21:52
Speaker
Caleb Daniel at $811,000 in that forward line that we're struggling with harmony. It's going to depend on his role, isn't it, as to whether he's an option? No to Caleb. That wasn't an option for you, mate. Oh, sorry. What role is he playing? I mean, geez, he gets shuffled around so much. He was like a worthwhile pick when he's playing in the back line, but it seems that they
00:22:19
Speaker
I prefer him not being there, so I'm not sure what the concern was, but yeah, an unpredictable role. It's hard to have confidence in putting him in your fantasy side.
00:22:31
Speaker
That being said, I think if we can get a read on this role early, he could be a nice forward for us because he has an average less than 86 for five seasons. You mentioned some of those names earlier that they're a bit same-same, but Caleb Daniel feels like somebody that Bevo's trying to get into the game, hence why he's shuffling around.
00:22:53
Speaker
I agree with you there might be some volatility there but in a line where we're really scratching for options, Caleb Daniel might just be that safety net that we've got. What position do you reckon he plays? Let's have a guess.
00:23:10
Speaker
Probably ruck. There's a bit of talk about the midfield. It seems like he's off of that halfback flank now. I think Ed Richards
Conclusion and Future Speculations
00:23:20
Speaker
and Bailey Dale have taken his role there. So wing time maybe with Bailey Smith out.
00:23:29
Speaker
You're right that the role is totally up in the air But I think it is a testament to to how good of a player he is that he hasn't actually dropped below that 86 So if a few things do go his way then I could see him pushing potentially back up to 90 He's a guy that's done 94 before which would put him pretty comfortably in those top sort of six to six to ten forwards and
00:23:52
Speaker
Moving on to those options you just mentioned, Bailey Dale and Ed Richards, Stado, any interest for you here? I've also seen some Ed Richards more midfield time buzz early pre-season, which also puts a bit of a flag up for McRae, but talk about Bailey Dale and Ed Richards, if there are options for us this year.
00:24:10
Speaker
They're just awkward prices without the ceilings we really want from the defenders. So as soon as you get that 700k you want to be able to see a player take a next step to be a top six. Unless they've got massive upside, it's just not worth the punt.
00:24:30
Speaker
Although I was an Ed Richards fan and unfortunately 12 months too early for his breakout, but look, I really like him as a player. I think he uses the footy really well, but there's quite a few of them that use the footy out of defence and they just share it a little bit too much. There's not one quarterback there.
00:24:51
Speaker
And finally, James Harms. Why not throw Hammy to talk about Harms? What are your thoughts on 637 coming across from the Ds? Does he have a role here? Yeah, I'm not sure what that role is, but they wanted him, so they took him. Every player at the dogs, we don't know. Yeah. James Harms, though, look, if he came in priced at what he averaged last year, I'd be pretty interested, because I think it was sub 50 from memory, but he's not...
00:25:21
Speaker
Yeah, thanks, Luke. So he's priced based on the, like the lower of the two prior years, so the previous year's average, which is a shame. But so I'm not really interested because that year he was playing bulk midfield time as well. So I don't think he's much value based on his price, but I reckon for those draft coaches,
00:25:45
Speaker
They bump him up your draft order a bit because he'll be, everyone sort of seems to draft based on last year's average.
00:25:54
Speaker
All right, well, that'll do it for the dog's pod. Basically, wait and see what the hell Bevo is going to do for the second, because we have no idea what roles are coming your way. They're going to be one of the biggest watch in those trial games. And even then, you probably won't have an ounce of an idea what the great man's going to be doing. He might be off to Freo anyway, apparently, according to reports by next year. So we'll have another whole team to have to worry about the Bevo effect. But look, it is, that was the Western Bulldogs' pod stato. You've got some closing thoughts, though.
00:26:23
Speaker
Yeah, I'd just be interested to see what everyone's thoughts are, that we go through the practice game forum, I've only seen Jack McRae at half forward and wing. What do we do? I mean, 100%. I reckon I am just playing half forward or wing. That's what he did last year. He's just sharing his time between the two, no CBA time.
00:26:47
Speaker
Couldn't be any worse than last season. I think it depends on who else does well in the trial game stato. Like if we see like just as a hypothetical Mitch Owens or someone like that, go into the guts and tear it up and you've got some cheaper options or, you know, Dylan Moore even going and tear it up in the, in the higher bracket. I think it's just dependent on other options that we've got. Cause like we said, safety in numbers otherwise is what I'd probably say.
00:27:14
Speaker
Well, that'll do it. Bit of silence to end the show. Make sure you follow us at Pod Pod AFL on X on YouTube, Instagram, all the other things and play. Please leave a rating on Spotify. Let's try and get up to 250 by the end of preseason on those ratings for us. And we'll see you on the next team preview pod. We're going to be talking.