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AFL Fantasy RUCKS and Our Favourite Stats | #PODPOD
103 Plays3 years ago
The Statesman, Lewy and Dos talk about six potential starting ruck options in AFL Fantasy Classic in 2022.
Some big names include Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn, and Brayden Preuss!
Then, the lads reveal some of their favourite stats to keep track of during the season that can help with your trade decisions, rookie choices, and much more!
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Members also gain access to advanced CBA analysis, state league fantasy scores, kick-in data, draftee analysis for your rookie research and much, much more.
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Transcript
Introduction to Point of Difference IFL Fantasy Podcast
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of the Point of Difference IFL fantasy podcast. A different look at IFL fantasy classic available exclusively in season to silver and gold members of the keeper league. This episode we're talking all things rucks, some of the key stats we use and some more points of difference.
Introduction of Hosts and Ruckmen Discussion
00:00:36
Speaker
G'day, welcome to another episode of the Pod Pod. It's Dossi here. And Stado joins us once again on the show. Welcome, mate. I'm looking forward to a racking good time. Never heard that one before, Stado. And, Louie, have you got a better opening line for us?
00:00:54
Speaker
No, no, I'll leave it at that. That'd probably be the podcast name as well. Yeah, we'll try and avoid that
Ruckmen Strategy and Key Characteristics
00:01:00
Speaker
one. But anyway, guys, that was a cracking start to the episode, but we are talking rucks. And as we've been going through each week, we've been going through three players on each line. Well, 12 total and a few listener requests, but this time it's just going to be two each.
00:01:16
Speaker
like leave it simple, but we wanted to include a little bit more for you listeners. We know rucks can sometimes be boring. So we also want to include some of the stats.
00:01:26
Speaker
that we use throughout the season as well to keep on top of our game. So we'll be getting to that after we've gone through the rucks. And then at the end, I'll be doing some of my points of difference as well, which I've been doing every single team getting through the list. So let's start with our rucks though, and we'll go round table again. Stado, who have you got as our first ruck to talk about? Yeah, well, as I go through my two rucks, they're actually the two rucks that are on field in my classic team as we speak.
Brody Grundy: Top Choice Analysis
00:01:52
Speaker
Now, Dossi, hopefully with the beautiful, important five things that I've already told you on our first podcast for this year, hopefully you remember. So what do you reckon the two things that I've actually got is the reason why I'm picking these two ruckmen in my team?
00:02:16
Speaker
So you want players that you're going to keep. Yes. To the end of the season. So that's one thing. Yeah. Remember one rack. I want to keep. Yes. One. And then under priced. Would that be the other thing? And there's one more reason. There's one more thing. One more thing. All right. I'll wait a minute. If you pick it off.
00:02:38
Speaker
Yeah, so well, let's see if you can pick it up as we go. So I'm going to talk about my first ruckman and this is the ruckman I'm going to keep all season. So part of that 3513 that I expect to have part of my 12 keepers is Brody Grundy. Now you are exactly right. I'm looking for the upside. I'm looking for the value. So Brody Grundy last season, time on ground, 81%.
00:03:08
Speaker
Now, his four previous years were 87, 89, 88 and 86. He's 5% down on any of the last four years. His averages for those seasons, so let's go back to 2017 with 86% time on ground, he had 106.2.
00:03:33
Speaker
If you remember correctly, he was just, and I mean just 22 years of age when he started that season. So he was still the up and coming ruckman at the time.
Brody Grundy: Role Changes Discussion
00:03:45
Speaker
2018 was his massive breakout. 88% time on ground with 120 average. 89% on ground in 2019 with 122.1. That's when he become the trader's
00:04:03
Speaker
ruck pig he got that status because he gave two years on the trot with 120 plus obviously in 2020 we had the
Max Gorn: Performance and Risks
00:04:12
Speaker
shortened quarters he averaged 119 with 87% game time now 87% in shortened quarters so even though it was the same percentage meant he was on ground less
00:04:26
Speaker
Now last year that dropped to 81. As we know he had the neck injury which was either late in the second quarter or early in the third quarter when he went down. It was 69 was his score halfway through the game.
00:04:42
Speaker
That obviously was one of the key things that impacted the time on ground. He only averaged 106.5. As we've seen already, Brody Grundy is burning up the track. He's actually lost some kilos. So building that a bit more of a tank than what he had the previous year, which is absolutely fantastic news for all of us, because if he can get around the ground more, that means more plus six is more marks.
00:05:10
Speaker
And I think that's an area he dropped last year. So that's going to be exceptional for his scoring. So we're looking forward to seeing the actual result of that. But the key thing here is if he gets his time back on ground just to equal the lowest of the last five years in 86, that's a growth of 5% of his scoring. And that's without any increased fitness, no injury interruptions, whatever the case may be.
00:05:40
Speaker
If that happens, he'll get his average to 113. So all of a sudden, when you're talking that, that would be equal to last year's highest ruck score. So if you want to compare that to Maxi Gaun last year, he had 90% time on ground for an average of 108. But someone will be talking about Maxi Gaun a little bit later.
00:06:03
Speaker
So he is valued, he is primed. He has the round 14 buy, which is important to me. Hopefully you're understanding the clues now, Dossie Boy. I was going to jump in and say the buy round, to be honest. Yes, correct. So Brody Grundy's got the round 14. So obviously whoever's going to be in that second chair is not going to be around 14 ruck for me. That's the first thing I'm going to do.
00:06:29
Speaker
because there's question marks on everyone below who I believe is the main man in the ruck this year. That's Brody Grundy on 100% in on him. He's there. And of course, as we know, with the right matchup, he's also a captain option.
00:06:46
Speaker
And as we know with Collingwood, for some reason, the bright lights like him. The television coverage likes him. So he actually becomes a loophole captain for quite a few of the rounds as well. So Brody Grundy, definitely my R1.
00:07:01
Speaker
I will say one thing, I'm incredibly excited and instead of you laid out all the points that, yeah, make him a great pick and I'm certainly going to start him in my side. Just wondering though, from both your perspective, maybe Louis can jump in for this one and instead of you can say, if you agree or not, would you be scared at all if in, you know, the one pre-season game sample that we get to see if Craig McRae goes, you know, Grundy only plays half his time in the ruck, half time forward.
00:07:28
Speaker
Would you just ignore that role in that game and just be like, no, we know what Grundy can do and we think he's going to do that? Or if that role just becomes evident, are you going to be scared completely away just off that one game? So my answer to that is no, but also think of the logic.
00:07:47
Speaker
So he's worked his butt off this preseason, not to add strength to be a key position player. So build the upper body strength. He is concentrated to actually get as fit as he possibly can to run as long as he possibly can. That means they're eyeing him either for the wing or for the rock roll. Fair enough. And Louis, you're on board as well.
00:08:12
Speaker
Oh, absolutely. For all the reasons Stado mentioned, I think he's probably one of a handful of players that just haven't left my team in this pre-season because
Sean Darcy: Potential and Risks
00:08:21
Speaker
there's just so much upside there. Alright, Louis, you're going to take us away with the other most obvious pick that we've got in the Rock Department.
00:08:28
Speaker
Yeah so I've got his counterpart in Maxi Gorn. Along with Grundy he's probably been one of the best ruckmen in the comp for the last five years. Look he does it all, he marks, tackles, kicks goals now as I'll get onto a little bit later and of course the hit outs. Been a 100 plus averaging ruckman for years and years and years now and honestly I don't think that's going to stop.
00:08:53
Speaker
However, I think starting him in your fantasy teams is going to carry some risks. So he is priced at 108, which is just 3 points shy of his best fantasy average Bar Corona ball, which I am a little bit hesitant to draw too many comparisons from.
00:09:09
Speaker
And for the majority of those last five years of that elite scoring, Luke Jackson just hasn't been his teammate. And he really came on in 2021, which we saw. He basically helped the D's win the granny. So he's obviously going to step in and have a bigger role in 2022.
00:09:26
Speaker
And it's obvious that he's going to be the D's next number one ruckman. And what we saw in the preliminary final and at various other stages during the year was that Gawn is extremely capable up forward. I mean he kicked five goals in the preliminary final and like I said at various stages during the season he was popped up there as a marking target. No his accuracy wasn't always great but he's still bringing the ball to ground more often than not.
00:09:53
Speaker
So at some point I think the needle has to move and the Gorn Ruck time split will be affected. So I've got confidence in Gorn being a top Ruckman in 2022. He's just a really really good player. But I do believe if you're starting him in your side, you're opening yourself up to more downside than upside. I'm not even sure he's going to hold that average. So for me as a starting option, Gorn is a no-go and especially with that buy which Stado mentioned just earlier.
00:10:23
Speaker
Yeah, I agree with the, they're going to nurture Jackson along to eventually take over the reins. It's going to take some time, obviously. We did see Tim English kind of explode in his third year and it is entering Jackson's third year. He's not going to get the same role and opportunity that English did in his third year. He's still going to have to split that time, but I can see what you're saying in that. I think from my perspective, it's just going to be
00:10:48
Speaker
In games where they're blowing teams out, they might just give him 80% of the center bounces, something like that, and just let Gorn rest. And that's where I think Gorn's still going to give you those monster games, but the floor might be a little lower when he has to play that key forward role. So kind of on board with you in that, I think it's more of a risky starting option than, say, Grundy, given the upside that Stado's offered us. What do you reckon, Stado?
00:11:16
Speaker
Yeah, I don't think I could have explained any better than Louis just did. Yeah, perfect. I'll get on to my first player, which is Shawny Darcy, and a big favourite of the pod last year, Shawn Darcy, available as a forward last year, not so this year though, only the Rock, which is true, because that's where he plays majority of the time, but
00:11:38
Speaker
He actually, people forget he did start that year, last year coming off an injury. So he's priced at 92, I believe, Shawnee Dass, but he actually started the year coming off an injury and had to play forward.
00:11:53
Speaker
with Meek in the side for rounds 2, 3 and 4 to start the year. And then he also had that niggle kind of towards the end of the year where they also brought Meek in the side from rounds 19 to 23. Granted, he was playing more of a primary rut for most of those games. But anyway, Darcy with Meek averaged 82 and without averaged 100. So it's a very big difference when you're looking at just the raw numbers there.
00:12:20
Speaker
But with Darcy, the upside is just that he's again lifted his training standard to another, another off season. He's saying, you know, same sort of deal as Grundy, just really getting himself fit and firing. He's hired the trainers off the track to get himself fit and firing. It's been working for him for the last couple of years and he's lifted that up a notch. I just see Darcy sort of taking himself to that next level. And this is where I think he establishes himself. I kind of think he's in that frame for,
00:12:49
Speaker
the R3, even an R2, if things go right with the Max Gorn side of things. And there's probably another guy here that we're going to talk about that could be in the frame to be that person as well, but Shauny Darcy just coming into his prime, really like the way he goes about it, his score builds great, he had some big ceiling games last year, and if we don't see him get those niggling injuries, which is always probably the question,
00:13:12
Speaker
I think he could be a great pick, especially at his price, and given that if he is priced at the 92 and he goes at 100 and they're not going to play meek alongside him for most of the year, I'd imagine, then he's got some serious upside. What do you reckon, Stado? Yeah, he's a risk to me. So first thing I'll say, he's round 14 by.
00:13:33
Speaker
So him and Grundy is not a good mix. And if I want to pay what is a premium price for Darcy, I'd rather just play that little bit more and have the security that I've got Brody Grundy rather than Sean Darcy.
00:13:53
Speaker
So to me, I'm looking this year to be honest and quite happy to be proven wrong because we had the same argument last year on Pop Pop Plus.
00:14:04
Speaker
where I'm going, nah, just avoid Darcy and you were hot on the banner for quite a while. And there was a great list of form, but I think the biggest issue for him is quite seriously, he struggled when he was playing against good ruckmen. So against Grundy he scored a 64. That's not pretty.
00:14:31
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, that's, that's one game though. How'd he go against the other guys? He, he put up some pretty big scores against, yeah, it's a fair point. It is a fair point. And he didn't actually just was his beach. Yeah.
00:14:47
Speaker
Yeah I'm to be fair I started you know my first iteration of my team in the off season started with the big Shawnee Darce as the centerpiece rock and I've kind of well as the second rock and I've straight away from that. Obviously in line with some of the by structure rules that that you've given me but.
00:15:04
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not quite there yet as the ultimate premium rock, just due to what we've laid out in the risk factor, given he does tend to get injured most years. But last year was a great sign, 21 games, and actually played through the injury, still managed to put up some reasonable scores. We kept thinking he was going to be out constantly. And every game, he kept suiting up. So I think he only actually missed one or two games for the season, one game for the season. And that was at the very start when he was coming back from that injury.
00:15:34
Speaker
Still there's still upside there, but there is a slight bit of risk to bring him in your starting side. Might be that upgrade target, Stado, after the buy, if you're still looking for a run. Potentially, yes. All right, let's get to our second rock here, Stado. Who you got for us?
Sam Hayes: Bench Ruckman Strategy
00:15:47
Speaker
Well, you got the hint before it's all about the buy. So my bench ruckman at the moment, I think he's probably going to be the favourite bench ruckman for the competition, is Sam Hates. So we're talking 190,
00:16:03
Speaker
K. Ruckman, who has potential and opportunity with Latham's move to the Swans, we know Leisset has won a premiership being a forward Ruck to Nicknat. So there's likelihood that Sam will get games. And of course, they've got to prepare for life after Leisset is in his 30s now. So there needs to be ready. So they need to get games into him. So there'll be games where they play duels.
00:16:32
Speaker
and if Lysit needs a break or gets injured, then Sam Hayes is the number one. So that gives me around 14 with Grundy and around 12. So I'm after around 13 Ruckman. He's either going to be a stepping stone cash cow or is value and can hold the fort until whenever I want to make a strategic move to change him into someone that's going on a big run, whether that be Jackson's injured and back in Gorn,
00:17:02
Speaker
or whatever the case may be, or as you mentioned, it might actually be Sean Darcy if he plays Gold Coast every second week. So the round 13 clubs are West Coast Eagles, so that's Nick Nat. To me, he's a great server coach player, but not for AFL fantasy.
00:17:26
Speaker
Western Bulldogs, I'm still not comfortable that English is number one. If he was number one ruckman and there was no forward role for him, then I would seriously consider him. There is wits and people talking about wits because of his price, but I never back in someone coming back from an ACL.
00:17:48
Speaker
Yes, we're a lot better at these things than what we used to be, but still you need to manage that player. So you'll slow them down. You won't overstretch them. The time on ground will be reduced as you want to take the risk out. As you fatigue, there is more chance of actually doing damage to your body. Next is Sydney.
00:18:09
Speaker
Obviously with the Hickey, Latham, Sinclair and there's another one, I can't remember, there's four viring for a spot. I think Hickey is probably the number one and Latham's is the second option so Latham's might be ruck and sorry forward and changing with him.
00:18:30
Speaker
If I saw Lattams, who's just the 510k, if I saw Lattams as a standalone ruckman, I would go him.
Robert O'Brien: Value and Potential
00:18:41
Speaker
Geelong, you got the same argument with Stanley and Segla. And Segla, because he played quite a few games late with Hawthorne, actually has got a high price. So then we get to the last club, and that is Adelaide.
00:18:58
Speaker
So Rob is sitting in my team. So Rob is my man. Now there is value in Rob. So that's part of the reason why this works for me. So first full season, we understood that he was basically like Hayes is doing at Port Adelaide. He was waiting for Jacobs to fail. Jacobs gave him an opportunity in and they never allowed Jacobs back.
00:19:23
Speaker
So his first year, 2019, he played 18 games for an average of 95.5 with a time on ground of 84, exceptional he was. It was really impressive for a debut season.
00:19:39
Speaker
Moved to 2020. He's got that spot confirmed. He plays every game in 2020. He scored 109 that was adjusted. So please note it was actually 86.8 with 88%. But that's 88% time on ground for the shortened quarters. So the reality is you're only talking about if we take the 25% off. It's really only
00:20:07
Speaker
about 69-70% of game time. So if you understand that he scored 86.
00:20:15
Speaker
with 70% game time. So last year, he had a really disappointing pre-season. He didn't have his body right. As we know, he struggled early. It took him to round four to really get any form. So we're talking, people started with him last year. I think he cracked out something in the 40s round one, something in the 50s round two. So really hurt his score.
00:20:40
Speaker
So 86 was his average last season, but I really think he is exactly what he was first and in between seconds. So he's between the 95 mark and the 105 mark, which hopefully means he's someone that can break the ton barrier with a clean bill of health and a run. Don't look at his gait.
00:21:07
Speaker
just look at his scores. So that's the important bit. So therefore priced at 86 is someone that has actually shown us the capability and the athletic running style, maybe take style out of it, maybe talk about the running capacity that he's actually got to get around the
Strategizing Around Bye Rounds
00:21:29
Speaker
ground. That if you're buying someone at 86 that could potentially, and I do mean potentially,
00:21:36
Speaker
be the R2 position for the season, averaging 100, I'm taking that and I'm taking it on because the value's there, the scoring power's there and the balance of having a ruck in round 12, 13 and 14 is there.
00:21:53
Speaker
That's why you have a Rob. There's the 15 minute essay on why you should be choosing Rob in your fantasy team. I know, it sounds awful, but it's true. Very comprehensive. I did see an article come out today on the Mighty Rob actually on the Adelaide FC website. So if you're not convinced, go there. He's talking about how he's more motivated than ever because of the fact that a Strawny came in last year.
00:22:20
Speaker
And he's like, geez, Strawny had a good back end of the season. I don't want to be taken over as number one ruck. Says he wants to be the best ruckman in the competition. He sent a little message to Nick Nat, make sure he was quite aware.
00:22:36
Speaker
So he said, I've been working really hard over the break and over the preseason physically. I'm in the best spot I've been in terms of strength and getting a few niggles out. So there you go, Stado. He's backed him in as well. I just want to ask you, though, all this crap about your fixtures and your buyers and all that structure by structure, isn't it this season in particular? Can't we just ignore it a little bit because there's got to be a game or two that are going to be
00:23:02
Speaker
weirdly postponed and our biostructure is probably just going to be thrown out the window. Mate, look at the end of the day, I will say this, is if you plan for chaos, chaos will come for your team. Pissed poor planning, the most disappointed performance, mate.
00:23:23
Speaker
I would rather plan for a positive result, a good performance, and be ready to go and deal with every curveball that happens. But if I'm better of a plan than anyone else, then I've got more chance of dealing with a curveball. That's how I run my business life and my fantasy squad. I thought they only fixed you to round nine at the moment anyway. They haven't announced the buyers, have they?
00:23:49
Speaker
You're kidding me. Could you do me a favor? Could you go to AFL fantasy and click buys? I thought, anyway. Yeah, well I don't have that. I haven't got the advantage yet. I will. I'll get around to it. So clearly someone hasn't looked at their buy structure. Not yet, at all. At the end of the day, mate, it's
00:24:13
Speaker
It's a strategy that's worked for a lot of good coaches for years and years and years. And the last thing you want to do is throw that strategy out the window based on a thought that maybe the season might get disrupted in some way or another. And you can't even tell me how that's going to be disrupted either.
00:24:31
Speaker
I feel like I've been doing so well this pre-season. You guys have been really proud of me and I've let you down. I've let you down with a comment. Well, just to go with what's happening in the country right now, I think we can just call that advantage statesman. All right. Let's get to your next player, Louis. Spending way more time on the rocks than I thought we would, but that's good content.
Jared Wits: Scoring and Team Dynamics
00:24:54
Speaker
What do you got for us, Louis?
00:24:55
Speaker
I get off saying I'm just trying to figure out if there's a ruckman left after our state I pretty much went through every single list sorry sorry now I'm talking about Jared wits he comes in priced at 68 this year and he's a guy who hasn't actually gone below 80 since 2016 and that's including that coronavirus season where he just didn't score as well so we're really talking below 90 and
00:25:23
Speaker
Obviously he had that ACL in 2021, just got the three games and based on that you sort of think oh wow this is a guy who's got you know 10 plus maybe even 20 points upside in him but he's looking into the stats he's not a high possession player he actually regularly notches up less than 10 touches
00:25:44
Speaker
And going back to 2020 when he played 17 games, he actually had less than 10, 8 times from 17 games. So he's a guy who consistently obviously gets the hit outs and the tackles but doesn't find a lot of the pill which is not really inducive of fantasy scoring.
00:26:03
Speaker
Even in his best averaging year of 104 he averaged just 14 disposals and he also averaged 45 hit outs per game which that's just 14 points shy of actually being half his scoring output. So that goes on to say that this is a guy first of all who's coming back from an ACL.
00:26:22
Speaker
So he's going to have those managed minutes. Like Stato said earlier, in 2019 he was only at 83% for his time on ground anyway, so it wasn't heaps heaps high. And in addition to this, we've now got Marbure Choll and perhaps to a lesser extent Mack Andrew and even Levi Kasbult who are probably going to be chopping out in that ruck division as well just to give him a little bit of a hand.
00:26:45
Speaker
as we know wits isn't really known for his forward craft when he's not on the ground rucking he's probably going to be sitting on the bench on a nice and low time on ground so um ultimately i think we're going to see a heavier chop out in the ruck for wits um
00:27:01
Speaker
and that hasn't happened often in the past he's been the number one guy for G since 2017 since he actually joined the Suns which is when his scoring kind of bumped up from his old pie days so yeah ultimately it's going to chew into his time on ground his hit outs and his fantasy scoring so I'm not sure he's the bargain he appears to be I'm sure he's got maybe seven points upside he might be a 75 guy maybe even push 80
00:27:26
Speaker
But at his price, I'm not sure that's enough upside to be betting on, especially when it's a guy who I'm not sure we're going to see much ceiling from anyway. Yeah, it's tempting, isn't it? At that price, you scroll down, you see wits, you've kind of seen him do what he did a couple of years ago and also being such looking like the value pick he was going to be last year. He was kind of looking like the real great value pick, but your points are completely valid and I'm on the same wavelength as you on that one.
00:27:56
Speaker
You forgot to mention Chrissie Burgess, though, cutting into those ruck minutes. Got to shout out the great man. Unfortunately, his ruck time is at an end with all those ins this year. I'm going to round us out for our rucks, talking about the man that we all want to hear about this preseason, and it is Braden Prus. Probably not coming into Stado's calculations thanks to his buy, I'm guessing, Stado?
00:28:21
Speaker
But coming in is an incredibly cheap rock having not played.
00:28:27
Speaker
Entirely last season, uh, seemed like it was finally going to be his year, but didn't play last year. Always been behind key rucks in his, in his history. So starts his career behind Todd Goldstein was just about to sort of take over there. Obviously Goldie had a few years left, decided it's time to leave. Goes to, uh, where does he go to? State of Gold Coast where they didn't have a ruck at the time or where's another place? Hawthorn where they were struggling for a ruck.
00:28:52
Speaker
No, no, he chose to go to Melbourne, which has arguably the best ruck in the competition in Max Gorn, still in his prime. So anyway, nice decision by Prusi and his management there.
Braden Prus: Cost-effective Ruckman
00:29:04
Speaker
Stuck behind him for a couple of years, then decides he's going to go off finally to a place where he can get his hit outs, can get his ruck time, be the number one man. Goes to the GWS Giants, looking like a cracking preseason coming in hot.
00:29:20
Speaker
Does his peck in the gym lift in too many weights like heff at the keep legs just just pumping too much iron anyway, we finally this year get to see Braden peruse season looks to be fit and firing but Do we see Flynn still kind of get a go in there? That's probably the only question that I've got other than that This guy has been whenever he's got the keys at AFL level. We've seen him go big He's gone big when Gorny's gone down when Goldy's gone down. He's had big games and in the VFL
00:29:50
Speaker
When he was playing I reckon this was his last healthy season in the VFL I think unfortunately was quite a few years ago probably 2019 I'm talking 132 AFL fantasy points with 18 disposals 15 kicks as well doesn't mind a kick three tackles six marks 52 hit out so can score and I think we're just kind of
00:30:11
Speaker
you know, injury factors aside, I think we're kind of, a lot of people are selecting him obviously, but I don't think we should overlook him even though our fantasy minds are probably doubting every bit about it, wanting to go against him. I don't think we should, personally. And he's in my team right now, I don't care about your buy structure, sorry mate. I reckon you can make up the buy structure elsewhere on your ground. You got two spots in the rock, you'll be right. Yeah, no thanks. Not interested, hasn't got the scoring powers, not a keeper.
00:30:41
Speaker
So the last five seasons 2020 played three games on average of 50. 2019 seven games for an average of 56 and 2017 eight games for average of 67. He may have been playing against Chris Burgess's lesser cousin in the VFL for that 130 score but I
00:31:08
Speaker
At AFL level, I think he's going to be quite a competent ruckman. I don't think he's going to be elite by any stretch. So with all the risk and them effectively now having three ruckmen, I'm just, yeah, I just don't see it ending well. And I haven't always been right. So this may prove to be wrong. It might be great value, but I just don't see it myself yet.
00:31:36
Speaker
Yeah, I think what your point though on those averages is just he's played a lot of the time he's been forced to play as a dual rock. And again, if he's looking like a dual rock, I don't want any piece of it. Same sort of deal. If he's playing alongside Flynn or Briggs, I'm not really keen and they have kind of flagged that that's potentially going to be the case. Courses is the language when they were talking about how they juggle all three. And I went, ooh, no thanks.
00:32:01
Speaker
Yeah, and if that's your reason, I don't mind. Well, we saw what happened last year. You pick a GWS rock when they're out to excellent. All right, might be having to shuffle around my team lads. Anyway, after that, let's move on to the stats we use during
Introduction to Statistical Metrics
00:32:20
Speaker
the season. Now, like I said at the top of the show, these are just going to be stats that we like to keep on top of week to week. And these are what we base our decisions on. So, you know,
00:32:31
Speaker
We'll go through each. We're going to go through three each. You can be pretty quick about it if you want. But I will say at the top, like obviously the keeper league here, we provide stats and we're a place that that provides stats. This is the pod pod, but we're sponsored and part of the keeper league. So we obviously provide stats and info that people can pay to get. OK, but I also want to just say that this is just meant to highlight the things that we actually use during the season to make decisions. So
00:32:57
Speaker
you know, it's not meant to be an ad, we're just trying to say what we use. So that's, I just want to kick that off at the top and Stado, do you want to take us away with, you can go through one or all three if you want, just go through all three, I reckon each. Yeah. And I'll be pretty quick with them because some of them make total sense. One, I'll give it a little bit of an explanation for, but the first one is I have a look at the previous history.
00:33:19
Speaker
So I make sure I understand the stats. Now that'll be at AFL level, but most importantly, NAB and state league level. So I actually understand the roles they're playing and what their output was. And there's some highly touted
00:33:35
Speaker
young individuals that come and they might be the most dynamic player that a club is ever going to receive. But it doesn't mean they're actually good fantasy players. So really understanding the stats is important. So I do a lot of history on anyone I'm selecting in my classic team, especially when we're talking rookies. So I understand
00:33:55
Speaker
The next one, which I predominantly use when I'm actually talking about my primos. So part of what we do at the draft doctors, and I'm sure they do in the keeper league, is do a lot of ranks. So in the draft kit, we've got all four of us at the doctors would actually rank all our players. So each of the lines. So what I do is put the four together and get an average rank.
00:34:23
Speaker
So understand that we might have Jack Steele, which we currently do at number two, and we actually have Tom Mitchell at number one. So that averages out what everyone feels. Then I put the price next to the player, and then divide that by the expectation of what they're going to score. So if Tom Mitchell is the highest score and we say, and we look at the history and go, well, he's going to get 118, then number two is gonna get 116,
00:34:53
Speaker
14 is going to get 104 average and then I will divide the actual price by the score I'm expecting to have all the average I have and that actually gives you a value so I'll look at a
00:35:08
Speaker
Jack Steel versus a Tom Mitchell. We think Mitchell who's cheaper will actually score more points. So therefore I'm going to select Tom Mitchell in my classic team ahead of Jack Steel. Does that make sense? So that's the data that I do and I do it in every single line. This is where this process is where I looked at Rob and went, oh, okay, we've got some real value here.
00:35:35
Speaker
And I just want to say like, obviously we kind of have to do it for our content platforms doing rankings and such like that. But if you do want to get serious about your fantasy and you're actually looking to really, you know, I don't know, win hats. And I know I haven't personally done that myself, but if you're looking to do well, it's a great, it's a great way to kind of like even just doing them recently, you know, you learn, you're like, Oh, why, like why it's all about reasoning. Like why is that person ahead? And if you're looking at,
00:36:04
Speaker
that hang on a second I'm ranking like four people from the same club they can't all be this good if we've got someone coming in you know you it's a good way to kind of shuffle them around I want it Louie do you ever do rankings yourself like because I know you you don't part of like a draft kind of thing do you ever do that when you come into classic or is it more just you know based on the value and kind of looking at each player separately.
Optimizing Trades and Player Analysis
00:36:26
Speaker
Well, I don't look at players separately at all actually. What I do is I'll have a group of players that I really like and then I will combine them. So let's say I've got two trades in a week or even it's probably more relevant with your actual starting side. But let's say I've got two mid prices and a gun and a rookie.
00:36:47
Speaker
What I'll do is I'll break down them in tandem and figure out where that gets me from there. So I'll break down scoring or break down the roles. I'll break down pretty much everything I possibly can and drive myself nuts because of it and then start questioning myself a week later. But that's basically what I do. So and then more often than not, I do land on the right decision.
00:37:11
Speaker
But I don't actually do rankings where I rank them one to, you know, five or six or seven or whatever. Yeah, it's each individual's preference for sure. What do you got for us now? Yeah. And last but not least, looking for those breakout contenders.
00:37:27
Speaker
I use the thing that you talk a little bit about, which is the time on ground. So look for the points per minute model. So I really got a good understanding. So an Andrew Brayshaw, who I'm pretty hot on, averaged 104 last year, but he only averaged 79% time on
Identifying Breakout Players
00:37:45
Speaker
ground.
00:37:46
Speaker
Now with the removal of Cherra, five injured, Mundy injured and ageing, he's right now going to be their number one midfielder. He's been slowly progressing up on his time on ground. I expect him to hit the
00:38:02
Speaker
84 mark. So you're talking that 5% growth, even without individual growth, all of a sudden you're talking about between the 108 and 110 average, all of a sudden he's talking in the top 10.
00:38:19
Speaker
Yeah, I'm a huge fan of Tom on ground as well. That's one of my points, but I've sort of adjusted my round. I'm obviously a massive fan and I also like to look at those guys that are going to make the huge leaps. So that's obviously one at the top of the tree, like the premium. You can also look at the guys that are about to kind of jump out and that can be guys with like 50 and 60% tog. And if you can see them jumping up 20%, that's when there's going to be a huge lift, but it's also
00:38:44
Speaker
added risk because you've got to make sure that that role is going to be there. Louis, do you want to take us through your three stats that you use through the season to sort of keep on top of things or pre-season whatever?
Value Players: Break-evens and Scoring History
00:38:54
Speaker
Yeah, well obviously all of the above. Everything Stado said I pretty much look at as well. But mine are quite simple really and there may be more base around in season when you're trading in players but first and foremost one of the first things I really look for is the break even. So is this player value at this time in that can I pick him up cheaper in a couple of weeks time or is he going to be skyrocketing in price and I'm going to miss the boat. You know we saw that with a
00:39:23
Speaker
just picking one Darcy Parrish last year. So if you got on him at the right time, his break even would have been what, 60? As I get flipped off by Stado here. And if you got on at that time, then you've ridden that price rise all the way to the end of the season. But if you jump on in, let's say around 17 and all of a sudden you're paying
00:39:46
Speaker
or upwards of 800k for a player who probably doesn't have as much upside as what he did. 10 rounds previous. So, break-evens is a big one for me. Sort of backing on to what state I said earlier, scoring history is huge, especially junior scoring. I love to know that this play is capable in the right role of actually accumulating the football, filling up the stat lines and basically producing a fantasy score that's worthy of my team.
00:40:14
Speaker
I don't know that you're quite good at, um, letting us know when, when somebody is going to be, you know, it's those guys that are debuting in the season. Cause I think we're generally pretty on top of the stats pre-season, like I know your cable legs, one resource where you can get the junior stats, but I know in season, if you keep on top of it and you can kind of see.
00:40:34
Speaker
People that are killing it in the state league that have also done it as a junior you're always pretty big on like hey this guy you know they're gonna usually the translations pretty good if they get a half-decent role at AFL.
00:40:46
Speaker
Yeah absolutely and I think the app I use is footy live. It's just one of the main scoring things on the app store. It should be on most devices. But from there I can basically just click on VFL, NEFL, whatever else and Waffle will figure out exactly what a player's scoring across a number of weeks and when they do get that debut I can kind of pinpoint that hey this guy's averaged
00:41:12
Speaker
I don't know, 28 disposals a game across the last three weeks. Let's say our midfielders got injured in the ones team, all of a sudden he comes in, well, you know, the writing's on the wall that perhaps this guy's going to at least have a couple of rotations, so you can jump on that nice and early.
00:41:29
Speaker
And the final one which I use a lot for trading to, usually to identify some players that slide under the radar. It doesn't always work because I think Stado and I both got burnt by Zach Bailey last year to an extent, but when you look at the last three average versus the average, you can actually basically get an itemised list of the players that are underperforming based on what they've done so far that season.
00:41:55
Speaker
Obviously, that kind of indicates that there's upside there and going back onto the break-even side of things. If you can get them at the right break-even, all of a sudden you're actually generating the cash and all things going well. You can find yourself a keeper as well or someone who's at least worthy of being in your side towards the end of the year.
00:42:16
Speaker
Yeah, the last three ones, probably one I use heaps in the middle part of the season where rolls are kind of changing and stuff and you've got a bigger sample and then people are moving in from one roll to another and then all of a sudden things are changing and you can kind of see it. Versus the average though too. Yeah, yeah, that's it. So, nah, I'm a huge fan of that one as well.
00:42:35
Speaker
And I probably use like just for that sort of stuff in the break evens. I always usually get the AFL fantasy classic like premium resource, just cause it's so easy to see all the break evens. I know there's probably other ones out there, but I tend to just, you know, fork out the 20 bucks or whatever.
Evaluating Defensive Players Using Kick-ins
00:42:50
Speaker
The ones that I've got for us is just CBAs, obviously becoming more prominent over the years. Thanks to the fine work at the draft doctors, getting them out in the public. Thanks to you.
00:43:02
Speaker
Thanks so dossy as well Getting them out into the public and finally we're able to see those and obviously just the people that are attending center bounce attendances You know can score well and actually I think DC did a nice little article on DT talk the other week looking at how you know actually Presenting the numbers and showing you that there is a correlation between spending time in the midfield and scoring well So yeah, I appreciate finally putting those numbers out there Louie
00:43:29
Speaker
Can I just add the first time I ever met Dossie? We're at a port internal trial and it was port player versus port player in the midfield of course and I just met Dossie for the first time. He pulls out his phone and he's taking notes of everybody who's attending a center bounce. I just think that's hilarious.
00:43:49
Speaker
I was taking Intra Club CBAs, yes. And I think I stopped, I stopped at half time because I was like, all right, I'm going to actually speak to Louis for the first time I've met him here. I'd better say hello. It was you and Checkers were there. And Hef, I don't think, I don't know if I'd met Hef. I've met Hef once before as well. And I was just in my phone doing the CBAs for Connor Rosie and your boy Budders.
00:44:13
Speaker
Anyway, it's a great resource though to see who's jumping up and it's, yeah, looking at them in season, that's where you can really pick up some value. I've been starting to look at the dollars per point as well. I think that's in the AFL fantasy app as well. And that one's actually like, even if you don't sign up to get the break evens, that one's there, which essentially does a very similar function in that it's just giving you the value of a player per point that they're scoring you.
00:44:38
Speaker
which is essentially where the break evens kind of come into play as well so it's it's letting you know yeah the cash you're spending for the points and it doesn't really have huge effect to start the season obviously because we don't have any averages moving around but as soon as it starts I quite like looking at that in conjunction with a few of the other stats I know you're pretty big on that one Stado too.
00:44:57
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. Aaron Hall. I think we had that discussion last week or the week before. Do you think he's value at the start? Anyway, move on. I still do. I still do. And then my final one, obviously time on Graham was mine, but I'm going to just, I'm going to shift towards kick-ins because I actually have started to use kick-ins in my pre-season research for defenders. So I quite like looking at who obviously has a stack of the kick-ins and you're doing that for intra clubs as well.
00:45:25
Speaker
Uh, not quite, not quite. I don't think I'll be, you know, it's not saying I'll be monitoring heavily, but it's certainly something that particularly pre-season, I think I'll be looking at pretty closely because that's where Jordan Ridley last year became ultra premium and then actually dropped down from not being an ultra premium was due to that sort of big difference in kick-in. So I just want to monitor that a bit closely early season, um, and make sure that we kind of know, Hey, these guys, I think Louis had the terminology, um, of who has the, what did you say?
00:45:57
Speaker
There was some word to use that has basically control over the entire kick-ins and when a player has a role where it's like 90% of the kick-ins, it is juicy. So, Louis, you want to say something on this?
00:46:07
Speaker
Yeah, I just wanted to add it does work both ways though as well. So if you've got a player who's taking 10 kick-ins a game, yes, that's built into their average or their scoring, but conversely, you can look at it the other way where there's actually, what, 10 times three, 30 points downside if that player loses the kick-ins or if the opposition team's extremely accurate. Jack Bose was another one, hey.
00:46:32
Speaker
Exactly so it's a good start and it can sort of sway you either which way but I do think you just got to be cautious with it because it can show that if they do lose that role and if they're taking kick-ins generally they're not a massive fantasy player anyway they're probably averaging what 85 to
00:46:51
Speaker
So maybe 95 with perhaps Tom Stewart being the king of all that or Jake Lloyd, but he did lose some in 2021. And look, that's a great example. We saw that Jake Lloyd regressed because he didn't have as many kick ins as what he had in the previous years. And looking at those are play on percentage as well, because I think willpower is a big one for me this year that's going to benefit from more kick ins if Lakoshis moves out and Bose is obviously injured and
00:47:18
Speaker
basically no one's there except him to take him. But he only played on from like 60% of his kick-ins last year. So I want to see that jump up to, you know, 70, 80, 90% for me to actually be super keen on him getting a massive bump. So anyway, that's a few of the stats we use during the season. Glad to hear any more that other people use during the season as well.
Upcoming Fantasy Articles
00:47:40
Speaker
I think there's also some great resource I've seen recently that Cam was linking us from the Draft Doctors, like a few websites where you can sort of
00:47:47
Speaker
compare with and without numbers so like with players versus without players to see you know how well somebody performs with and without certain players in the team so that's pretty that'll be pretty handy as well.
00:47:57
Speaker
I'm surprised also you didn't actually mention number of pre-season hype articles in your stats to run off of as well. Because we're running pretty late, I'm just going to mention my pods. I'm not going to explain them. I will be releasing an article at the end of all these pods on kpaligpod.com.au. So I'm not going to talk about these guys, but I want to I want an acknowledgement of yes or no. Whether you'd be considering this pod, I'll go from Louis back to Stado back to Louis.
Potential Picks from Geelong and Gold Coast
00:48:24
Speaker
The first one, we're up to Geelong and Gold Coast on the lists. And first one from Geelong, Patrick Dangerfield, Louis. Look, I'd be hesitant for lots of reasons I won't get into, but at his price, it's a yes. And Stado, the second one, defender eligible. We've talked about a few people that could potentially play some midfield minutes. I've got Marco Connor at 511K as a super pod with 0% ownership. No.
00:48:53
Speaker
All right, fair enough. I'm going to have to convince you in the article later on, I think. Gold Coast, I spoke about him. I actually have done a complete backflip since saying I won't pick him last week. Louis, Braden Feorini, any interest? No. And I've just spoke about him a little bit negatively, but willpower, if he gets those kick-ins, any interest? Stay there.
00:49:14
Speaker
Yeah, possibly. He's not high on the agenda, but he's certainly a watch if things sort of change with the group. So Lakosia, she talked about. So if he's the only one in there getting all the kick-ins, then he might be someone of value.
00:49:31
Speaker
All right,
Preview of In-season Podcast Plans
00:49:32
Speaker
love it. And just to remind everyone, these episodes will be available to silver and gold members throughout the in-season pod pod. And you also get a stack of premium resources as well, including CBAs, state league fantasy scores, drafty analysis guides, kick-ins, all that sort of stuff.
00:49:49
Speaker
become a silver or gold member on the keeper league and gain access to all that plus our in-season pods. The in-season pods are going to be much more Q&A focused and I think we'll kind of edge towards that at the end of pre-season. A lot more listener kind of questions coming in and Q&A answering, getting Louis and Stado's opinion on plenty of stuff. You might even sneak mine in occasionally, but that's what it's going to look like. Thanks everyone for listening again and thanks Stado and Louis for joining me. Pleasure. Thanks mate, great episode. See you next week.