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StAcK BuLlDoGs!? RuCkS R BaCk!? Round 2 Review & Questions | #PODPod
82 Plays4 years ago
The fantasy season is heating up and there’s plenty of questions that need answering! Is every Bulldog an option? Are rucks set to rule the world again? Is Tex better than Andrew Gaff? All of these critical questions are on the cards as Dos & Lewy tackle the strange start to the 2021 season.
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Transcript
Introduction to the Podcast
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to the Point of Difference podcast, a new AFL fantasy classic podcast brought to you by Keeper League Pod. On this episode, we review round two and answer your listener questions.
Round 2 Fantasy Team Performances
00:00:21
Speaker
Welcome to the Pod Pod, I'm Doss here with Louis, how are you mate? Good mate, yourself? Yeah pretty good, going alright and very good after round 2, my team's looking pretty nice in the classic arena, did pretty well for myself and how did you go after round 2? Yeah I have noticed you've been grinning ear to ear all weekend Dossie, I had a decent week as well, big bounce back from last week actually.
00:00:45
Speaker
Yeah, what was your score in the end? I got the 1995, so just shy of 2000, but that was enough to skyrocket me up the ranks because I think par was about 1900 this week.
00:00:55
Speaker
Yeah, and we weren't too worried about ranks sort of after that first round and you've managed to climb your way back up. Still in line for that Hilux, Louis, like we thought at the start of the year, you and I, we're both the joint Hilux winners, of course, we pronounced ourselves. Well, that'd be nice. That's the goal, isn't it? That is. Well, I just cracked the 2000 mark, 2013, pretty happy with that.
00:01:17
Speaker
I think this might be one of my higher ranks. We've gone around, Louis, for myself in my fantasy career with the 327. That's massive from you, Doss. Getting up there. Usually I sort of bounce back. I'm not usually good at the starting teams. I kind of bounce my way back throughout the year with my trading. I've always been sort of an okay trader during the year, but not the starting team. But this year, luck has gone my way and we're looking pretty nice. But we'll have to
00:01:44
Speaker
Just a few thoughts on round two before we jump into the game by game review as we do week to week,
Impact of Top-performing Ruckmen
00:01:50
Speaker
Louis. Any major takeaways? I think one of the big things we saw were the rucks. Are they are they back? We saw Grundy and Gorn performing well, both tonning up. Yeah, we did. But we also saw their counterpart, the rookies scoring quite well, too. So it's tough to know which direction is the right direction. But Jeez, if you were a Max Gorn or a Brody Grundy owner,
00:02:11
Speaker
seeing that 108 and 122 it's pretty good feeling and maybe you're thinking that I can keep these guys for the rest of the season because it was doomsday last week. Yeah and we did say probably hold on to those premiums we were on the side of just backing in one more week neither of us have the gorn in our team you have a Grundy I think I've gone the dual rookie rucks but we've always been a fan of just backing those guys in you picked them for a reason. Some other things we noticed I'm thinking I mean
00:02:38
Speaker
We've been talking about those outside, inside mixture of players, the guys that can win the uncontested ball, but also go inside a little bit. They've sort of been effective. We've noticed that a little bit early on, but also those high guys that can really get a lot of uncontested marks and in teams with high marking systems. We're seeing those guys thrive.
00:03:01
Speaker
Is that something we can look at looking forward to pick guys like that? And I'm sort of eyeing off in the coming weeks. I wouldn't pick him off straight off his injury. A guy like a Mitch Duncan type. He seems a really sort of that mold that we'd be looking for in our teams.
00:03:14
Speaker
Yeah, definitely. Historically, these outside-inside players have been the best fantasy players anyway. So immediately I think of a Josh Kelly, a Zach Merritt, or a Mitch Duncan, like you suggested. So I think that it's more of a case of the cream sort of rising to the top under the adjusted rule changes. I think they'll come down a little bit eventually, but at the moment, these guys are proving why they've been such fantasy guns in the past. Yeah, and I think with the ones with
00:03:40
Speaker
Great kicks as well with the new rules as well like a guy like Mitch Duncan you want the ball in his hands
Fantasy Strategies with High-disposal Teams
00:03:45
Speaker
as well probably doesn't hurt that you're wanting to get him the footy as well. Other things we notice as well the kicking defenders on crap teams they're just still absolutely killing it and I've got my eye on a guy later on I want to talk about a bit about Jack Bose and he's just a guy.
00:04:01
Speaker
that's come to mind. A guy in a, I wouldn't say, I mean, the sun's are rising. I'd still say they're still going to be not up the top of the ladder for sure. And they're still going to get a lot of defensive entries coming their way. Just the guys that take the kick-ins though, he stepped into that kick-in role and we've seen a fair bit of a bump this year.
00:04:19
Speaker
I might match you a little bit later on in the podcast with a fellow Jack as well. Oh, I like that. And one thing that's come to mind this week that I just wanted to talk about and the validity of it. And we might also touch on this later on as well. Stacking players from a very specific team, I might say, a very high disposal team.
00:04:39
Speaker
the Bulldogs. Is that going to be relevant going forward, stacking a team that just has that massive disposal differential every week? And it seems like the Bulldogs might be that team. We've got a two game sample three, if you include the Amy of them doing that. Is that too risky? Obviously, the buyers we've got to consider, but a team like that, and if we find other teams that do similar things, gee, they're just absolutely racking it up, Louis.
00:05:05
Speaker
Yeah, so you just touched on it, Dos. It's probably not viable until they're by, after they're by. If they're still scoring like this, then yeah, I'd be stacking dogs. Love to possess the footy. Unbelievable sands. All right, let's get into our round two, game by game review. We'll start with the Thursday night game, and that was Carlton going down to the pies. Just some notable events from that before we get into the fantasy side of things. Jamie Elliott going down injured. You reckon this could have an impact for a certain popular player in our forward lines?
00:05:34
Speaker
Yeah so we were seeing Jamie Elliott and Jordan de Goghi rotating through that centre bounce midfield group and now that Jamie Elliott obviously spent more of his time up forward to put pressure on the scoreboard for Collingwood which they haven't been very good at so far this season so with him going down I'm worried that Jordan de Goghi gets shifted into that forward line maybe they bring in like a Greenwood.
00:05:55
Speaker
Yeah. Why is that center roll? And that's why we picked Jordan to go. We want that sort of solid mid-roll. He's had that 30-70 split in the past. We want 50-50. Yeah, and even Crisp sort of stepping up and playing in the center bounces in this game as well. Actually, we might touch on him first. Why not? Jack Crisp, a defender eligible player, 117 points in this one with 36 disposals, coming in and attending a few center bounces.
00:06:20
Speaker
He had 14 disposals and 43 fantasy points in the last quarter as well, if you don't mind, including a couple of frees against, which actually hindered that score a little bit. Jack Crisp, is he a target for you going forward? Oh, definitely. I love Jack Crisp. He's someone that I've often started in my starting sides, just because like you saw the 43 points in the last quarter, he's a burst scorer in the past. He's sort of played that half back rebounding role. He's getting center bounces now, which he has sporadically in the past, but
00:06:49
Speaker
It's a lot of upside on his scoring, and even if he is going to play that half-back role, it's still Jack Chris. I mean, it's going to be a top six defender. Don't mind him at his price. Yeah, I've got him in my squad very happy with that pick at the moment. Brody Grundy, we talked about it at the top of the show, but is he back? I think both of us.
00:07:06
Speaker
Look, 122 points, that is back, no doubt about that. He had the 16 disposal, six tackles, and he's going at a monumental hit out rate at the moment. Is this something that's sustainable? And are we going to see the Brody Grundy of the 120 point scorer week to week that we've seen in the past? If he's tackling like that and he can get his hand on it in the hit outs, then I think, yeah, definitely his flaws are 90. And as long as he finds the ball around the ground, which we have seen, then, yeah, I think he can average 120 again.
00:07:37
Speaker
I really do. I think it's probably closer to 110. But from what I've seen from Brody Grandy, I've seen one very good game and one very poor game. So I don't know where it lies right now. Yeah, I'm still skeptical. We're going to see those huge numbers from the rucks continuing a seasonal season along for this. We'll all have to double check those stoppage numbers going forward. I think he'll go in line with the trend. So he might drop 20 points, but he might still be the top two ruckmen.
00:08:05
Speaker
Oh, absolutely. Yeah, those two guys are still the top two targets in your ruck line if you don't have either. Taylor Adams as well was back to his best. But is here guy you see coming into top eight mid calculations, you know, dropping a pretty average score in round one, he's going to drop a little bit of cash. But for me, I'm on the side of no thanks at the moment, even though
00:08:25
Speaker
He's probably one of your outlier players in terms of your Zach Merritts and your Tom Mitchells. Those guys just always rack up the footy. I think Taylor Arms is sort of in that category, regardless of if he's more of that inside bull. I'd say he does sit more on the inside bull category, which is guys I'm tending to avoid, but he can just find the footy as well on the uncontested pill. Where do you sit as him as a top eight mid calculations and when to target him sort of in that calculations as well?
00:08:55
Speaker
Well, I think he was a top eight mid last year, was he not? So in the past we've seen Adam Trelaar's been able to be a top eight midfielder for us probably the last three or four years at the Pies. There's a massive hole in that Magpies midfield group now. You've got aging stars like Pendlebury's side bottom, and you've got young blokes like Sire in there. So I think he's sort of the guy that they're really going to be relying on. I can see a 110 average from Adams this year. I think he's a massive chance for top four midfielder.
00:09:21
Speaker
OK, well, yeah, I want to say a bit more, although, yeah, I can't really argue with that, the logic behind it. I do agree, though. He is a bit of a contested player, so I'd want to see him get it on the outside a little bit more. But he's a tackler too, so it's tough. See, that's where I think, you know, your crisp is the guy that I'd target out of those two. I just think he's got that ability to rack up those marks on the outside, and it's sort of that player that you want the ball to be using the ball in his hand as well.
00:09:49
Speaker
Yeah, I just think that's where I'm leaning towards a player like a Crispin, this new setup versus an Adams. But although we'll have to wait and see where those sort of tackle numbers go, which have been lower than previous years, which is what I'd probably be concerned with with Adams. Now, I've got a couple of hold and trade candidates out of this game that
00:10:11
Speaker
that we've had. Now we had, I just want to mention the Zach Williams Daboo. I don't really want to talk about hold and trade. I think if you've brought him in, you're going to hold him and see how that pans out as one game. But 63 on Daboo, he did have a game high 10 clearances though. Not what you wanted really in your first game if you did bring him in just at that price tag.
00:10:33
Speaker
Not ideal, but there was always going to be some teething issues with coming into a new side and just knowing how these blokes play. I mean, you can train all off season, but once you get into the real stuff, it's totally different. So I wouldn't be too concerned about that 63. In fact, he saved it late. So I'm probably looking at that second half of scoring and thinking that can repeat. All right. Hold a trade. Patty Crips. Underwhelming again. Yeah. Um,
00:11:00
Speaker
At his price point coming in, 718K. It was priced at 94. He's averaging 83. He's got 87 and a 79. He probably hasn't burnt you yet. I would maybe hold if there's no other issues and just see if he can turn around. He doesn't turn around next week. Then yeah, maybe I pulled the trigger on that one. He's the guy for me that
00:11:23
Speaker
He plays that contested brand of footy that we are worried about if you can't get the ball on the outside as much. And Patrick Cripps is just traditionally a guy that just gets so much contested footy if it's zinging around and getting outside the contest quicker, which it has been this year so far.
00:11:41
Speaker
He's a guy I'd be worried about in the wet. Yeah, sure. Or in a game where there's lots of stoppages, Patrick Cripps is going to thrive. I'm, I'd be concerned. And I mean, if I was an owner, I'd be sweating. And like you guys said last week, maybe give him this round to see if he can right that wrong. And would you even, if you were an owner, Louie, would you be considering if he does put up another poor score this weekend, maybe pulling the trigger.
00:12:04
Speaker
I think three rounds of data is enough to be able to get a rough idea of how your players or what your players projected score is going to be moving forward. So yeah, I'd probably watch this week, but I wouldn't blame you if you jumped off by all means. But yeah, it's a tricky one because we know what Patrick Cripps can do.
00:12:21
Speaker
Now, there is a lot of names from this game that are relevant, but Sam Walsh, we're also just on the side. Look, you're going to hold him. Obviously, we've got a lot of probably got more issues to deal with, but Sam Walsh, he's still looking good again. It's just been a bit lower than what we hoped for early days. He's passing the eye test. If he could get fantasy points for how good he actually looks out there, then he'd be top scoring. But unfortunately, he's probably going 15 to 20 points below what we'd like to see. But I've seen enough to suggest that he will get there.
00:12:49
Speaker
And what's your final verdict on Jordan de Goey? He got the 90 in this one, but it was playing primarily forward. Not a ton of CBRs. I think it was five total for the game, which is not what you want. Not what we signed up for, really, when we picked him at the start of the year. But 90, that's nice. Is that 90? And see you later if you have the luxury trade.
00:13:08
Speaker
Um, I would be considering the luxury trade, but, uh, if it's not there for you, there's, there's no harm in watching Jordan to go in how he goes this week. He may still have the role. His center bounces may even be increased because he takes up Elliott. So I'm just taking a stab in the dark here. I think that he's an 80 guy anyway, so he's not going to hurt you if you do, um, decide to move them on. But.
00:13:32
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know. Sorry if you do decide to keep him, but he's also a guy that could have gone or could go 110 if he's got that role. It's interesting, Conundrum, the old de Goey. I think I'll be holding for one more week as well and just see where the CBA's go, but I'm not holding my breath. Comes up against Brisbane this week, who you would expect would be a little bit underdone given the COVID restrictions. So we'll see how that goes.
00:13:55
Speaker
Patty Dow, this is the last name we'll mention here, 39 break even. Obviously I've got a biased opinion towards the great man. He's had Richmond and Collingwood in the first two weeks, pretty tough match-ups, but the time on ground for me is a big issue with Teague sort of giving him that low 70s, high 60s time on ground.
00:14:12
Speaker
sort of the fourth or fifth midfielder in line, which is something that I haven't liked looking at players this evening. Even for a dry Caldwell that concerned me and his ceiling has been higher than Patty Dowd's this year. So what do you think with a 39 break even coming up against Fremantle this week? If he gets named, do you give him one more shot, Louis?
00:14:32
Speaker
No, I think he's a trade. With a 39 break even, I'd give him a 70% chance of actually hitting that. So the fact that he might not even reach 39, that's just a cash cow coming to an end. I'll jump off now. If you've got to wait one more week, do it. But no, I think his cash generation is coming to a swift end.
00:14:52
Speaker
Yeah, I don't want to make a comment, but Braden Campbell is a guy that I don't have at the moment with that negative two break, even though... Perfect sideways. I don't want to say it out loud, but he's pretty tempting this week, Louis. GeelongBrisbin8180, some notable events from that one. Hashtag robbed were the Lions. What's your opinion on that tackle on the buzzer there, Louis? Oh, it was holding the ball.
00:15:16
Speaker
Absolutely. Well, the AFL came out and ruled it. The other one was the big O hobbling around. If you saw that game, Louis, at all, he was just his ankle was stuffed, I think, in the second quarter or something, managed to play out the game, just limping around there. But does that mean Fullerton might be safe in the rookie sort of that green dot might survive, even though he's been very with longer games. It's a nice rotation to have, even if big O does play. So I think, yeah, probably good for Fullerton. Lucky Neil.
00:15:44
Speaker
Couple of real average scores, and he was heavily tagged in this one by Mark O'Connor. Absolutely gloved him. He only had 16 touches, but that included 13 in the second half. So three to half time, 51 AFL fantasy points. The tagger was back in this one in a huge way, but Lockie Neal, I want to hear both your thoughts on Lockie Neal and the tagger. Are they back?
00:16:07
Speaker
Also, obviously, locking Neil came in massively overpriced to start the season. We've seen that he's had underwhelming scoring since then, and he's going to keep plummeting down. So he'll be someone with target when he's probably about 750, 700 K. Who knows what he gets to? Is the tag back? No. I think Marco Conner's tagging. I think Matt De Boer's tagging. I think every other team tags when they have to, but it's not a massive worry.
00:16:32
Speaker
Yeah Mark O'Connor's got the Hawks this week though. Does he go to our boy Titch? Well that was you was mentioning pre-pod before we went on air that you're thinking about bringing the great Titch in this week. I sort of mentioned it well. What about the Mark O'Connor factor? Is that something that's going to hold you back or you just back him in to break that break the shackles and put in a big performance?
00:16:56
Speaker
I think he'll break the shackles. I'm not sure Tom Mitchell was a high impact per possession player and just watching him on the weekend, the speed at which he's able to unleash handballs is just next level. He does it within 0.1 milliseconds.
00:17:11
Speaker
Look, Marco Connor's not that good at football, I don't think. Defensively, though, he was gloving that, he was gloving Neil pretty, pretty well. But Neil is a man that has unfortunately been proven now to be affected by a close, close attention. I mean, Mitchell in the past, he has been gloved in the past himself, but I wouldn't say, we'll have to wait and see. I'm very interested to see how it goes. I'm a nervous owner, though, right now. I really don't think Geelong will bother with Hawthorne.
00:17:37
Speaker
I think they'll just go head to head and want to sort of nail out their own game style and not worry about a tagger, to be honest. All right, interesting take. So I want to talk about a few more names here. Tom Stewart, he's been a bit underwhelming a couple of weeks in a row, only in the 80s, but holding firm for the owners there.
00:17:55
Speaker
Yeah, so a lot of the complaints with Tom Stewart has been time on ground. Yeah, he got stuck on the bench. All that suggests to me is that there's upsides. So if you trade now, you're locking in his 80 average and you're not going to get a piece of 90 averaging, 100 averaging Tom Stewart, which we know is probably going to come. I wouldn't say time on ground is a trend.
Jack Crisp's Fantasy Potential
00:18:13
Speaker
It might be a bit of early management for the cats, but
00:18:16
Speaker
Yeah, what was annoying, and I saw somebody pointed it out on Twitter, apologies, I didn't see the handle, but he got stuck on the bench during slow play when they were just racking up plus six in the back line, and I saw him sitting on the bench, and I'm like, oh, this is when you want Stewart out there to just be getting those juicy plus sixes. I'm an owner, I'm holding strong. Clark and Danaher, two mid prices, they got 77 and 81, respectively, in this one. That's good to hold for another week, you'd think, as owners there for pretty highly owned Clark and Danaher.
00:18:46
Speaker
Yep, just hold. Isaac Smith, is he tempting you? We mentioned him last week in the 650K range. He's racking up those disposals and marks on the outside. He's got the 67 break even. Definitely. He got a very fantasy friendly role. It's very conducive of marks and kicking and he gets on the scoreboard as well. So I think he can average 90, but my concern is Mitch Duncan coming back into the side. He's probably a better player at that role.
00:19:13
Speaker
Fair enough to uh harry sharp looks i'd be worried about the red dot from him this week but at least we'll know early it's the thursday game isn't it so yeah and he's stuck in melbourne so um it might just be that they don't have many to choose from i'm just worried about who writes harry sharp's sick note on monday year 12 student
00:19:33
Speaker
Yes, and I reckon just from draft perspective, you buy low on Brisbane players right now, don't you? Because they have had an absolutely stinking start to the season. That can't continue, can it? We've got so many guys averaging in the 70s and 80s, even in the mcluggage, I think he's at back-to-back 78s.
00:19:51
Speaker
They're a buy low for me for draft. Now to the Saturday game, Sydney and Adelaide, Buddy was back and Rookies absolutely carved up. They were the top three scorers at halftime were Sydney Rookies. Can you believe it, Louis? No, I couldn't. When I looked at my phone, it was just unbelievable. I think it was Campbell, Golden and McDonald hit the scoreboard to get up there. So bright future at Sydney and these three, probably two of them, Campbell and Golden are going to be very good cash cows for us.
00:20:20
Speaker
Yeah. And if you're not on either, there's still time, isn't there? Because they're just racking up points. Braden Campbell was much more impressive this week than he was in round one. And with Richmond coming this week as well, I'm a non-owner of Campbell. I think he's very highly owned, but if you don't have him, defenders against Richmond, they carved up last week.
Tex Walker's Consistency Debate
00:20:40
Speaker
The Hawks had a stack of marks. You'd expect Campbell to be a pretty good scorer again and safe to field as well.
00:20:46
Speaker
Yeah, Tigers have always given up points to defenders, so I'd expect Campbell to sort of get that 70 score. Louis, is Tex real? The big Tex leading the Coleman. I think Tex's return to form is real, but as a fantasy option, I don't think it's real because he's got Sam Collins next week. He's got a minus four break even at the moment. This is just off the cuff. This is just my opinions.
00:21:12
Speaker
Look, if he gets a 40 or a 50 next week, which is well within the scope of a key forward, that cash generation comes to a halt straight away and that break even is then 20 or 30. So many times I'm trying, I've already got mid prices in my team and they're sticking around an extra week or two because I've got forced trades.
00:21:31
Speaker
You don't want Tex in your forward line if you can't get rid of him for a week or two, because he's not going to dish you out something nice. At least with a Stevenson, there's a hope that he sort of recaptures that 9100 form, you know? Gee, I don't know. What we've seen from K forwards, they're actually suddenly fantasy relevant. Guys like Tom McDonald, just back to his 2018 form because of those inside 50s and the clean ball delivery coming in there. Guy like Aaron Norton, 77, followed by 91.
00:22:00
Speaker
Tex is a target down there. They're moving it okay in there to get it to him. He's the only big dog down there wanting the footy.
00:22:09
Speaker
Could you ride the break even as the devil's advocate for the people? I know it's been a Twitter question. We've been floated. I'm probably jumping too far ahead Can you just ride the break even though and just see where it goes if these key forwards are really back? I mean it like you said a negative four break even unless he's Harry Jones for me this week. He's probably not going to put up a 12 He might get you a 60 at worst. Could you could you just ride the break even for Tex? You could
00:22:34
Speaker
All right, we'll see how that goes for owners. I don't think I'm ballsy enough to do it myself though. No, no, I think so. And what about Lloyd owners? And okay, two premiums here, Lloyd and Riley O'Brien. Are you staying strong with either of those two? So Lloyd, he was screwing well up until halftime. I expect that he's going to recapture that sort of 110 form, especially if Braden Campbell can get 96. So we've seen what Jake Lloyd's been able to do. Riley O'Brien. Does the Campbell inclusion though, and guys that are sort of better at
00:23:04
Speaker
ball use at Sydney. I mean, they've been pretty good in the past, though. That's probably mean to the older guys distributing the ball back there. But does that take the ball out of Lloyd's hands a little bit more? And, you know, Campbell, such a good user. I think a lot of people saying he's probably a top three disposal. I think even you said in the preseason, he's a top three disposal just about in the comp coming in out of the draft. Does that mean Lloyd maybe gets a little bit less of the foot in his hands?
00:23:28
Speaker
Yeah, so that was a major reason why I didn't start Lloyd, just because there was so much conjecture over how good of a kick Braden Campbell is. I thought, well, why not kick it to Braden Campbell instead of Jake Lloyd then? Since watching them play, I think Sydney still play a kick mark style in their defensive 50 before launching. Jake Lloyd's takes the kick ins and he's still a leader back there. So I think he might not improve on his seasonal average from last year, but I think he'll be there abouts.
00:23:57
Speaker
OK, so you're expecting some pretty big scores coming in for Lloyd in the coming weeks, and he might start this week against Richmond, who give up, as we said, a stack of marks to defenders.
Riley O'Brien: Sell or Hold?
00:24:07
Speaker
Riley O'Brien, though, 49.5 across two games. I shoved him out of my side after seeing that running gate at the preseason game. I did not like the way he ran about, legs just flailing all over the place. Can he return to his form? He's got wits this week, probably won't get any easier. And then a North Melbourne matchup, two pretty tough matchups for hit outs.
00:24:27
Speaker
I think it depends how the games are played. Riley O'Brien really strikes me as a stoppage ruckman. And I think the fact that he's not getting as many of those is really hindering his score. I mean, what is he averaging at the moment? Fifty-five or something? Forty-nine and a half. Wow. OK, 170 break even. He's already hemorrhaged one hundred thousand dollars.
00:24:46
Speaker
So maybe coaches who have that rookie R2 or Dos, you've got the rookie R1, R2, maybe you just go to Rob when he does maybe find some form, but I'd be raising major flags for Ali O'Brien. Yeah, you've probably got to jump off your saying bank that cash and spend it elsewhere, grab one of these, or even a
00:25:05
Speaker
an Essendon which we're about to touch on Essendon. They're about to bring in Nick Bryan, the 170k basement guy. He might have to fill in for Draper for a few weeks as well. We've got yet another guy coming in that can be that cash grab that you're looking for and you can feel the likes of your meeks, your flins.
00:25:22
Speaker
Probably we've heard that our role marshal is going to be out for another couple of weeks as well You might even have the Saints ruckman as well to go hunter one more week a couple more weeks Anyway, it's a tough decision and harsh start for Rob owners port Essendon port gave him an absolute spanking you were at the game Louie I'll just go straight to you for a bit of a rundown
00:25:43
Speaker
Yeah, so it was really good going to the footy for the first time in over a year and a crowd actually being there was just nuts. It was so good to get a little bit of atmosphere back to footy and just see it live again because you catch so many things that you don't actually see on TV. Yeah. What did you catch, Louis? Especially. What was your major thing? Off the cuff.
00:26:02
Speaker
Well, the Port Adelaide players work extremely hard. So what I was able to see from behind the goals is that as soon as Port Adelaide were able to take possession, it was an immediate spread. So Port are looking to get these sometimes uncontested marks, but more to move the ball forward as quickly as possible. But it's making for very good fantasy scoring. So that was probably why we saw that Zach Butters was able to get 36 touches. He was one of those guys that was constantly pressing out to the wing.
00:26:30
Speaker
Attending the stoppage getting a tackle moving on and we saw that with his fantasy score, which was 119 Yeah, a bit quiet the first week I was actually a nervous owner seeing how he went about it because they had the easy matchup in week one as well I was expecting a pretty solid score went quiet, but this game he was all about it was he
00:26:50
Speaker
Just off your eye test, we haven't had the numbers released to us yet. CBA data. You will be able to see the article on a keeper league pod on Wednesdays. That drops, I think by memory. I'm the one that writes that I should know when it drops Louie. Um, was he in more center bounces this week? It kind of looked like it on the eye test, but maybe not just a wing.
00:27:09
Speaker
Yeah, watching live, it was hard to tell just because you can't really tell who's in there. That's it. I think he probably attended thereabouts the same, but it'll be good to get those numbers Wednesday. Yeah, we'll have to look. Now, there was a few big events that happened in this game that we'll have to touch on, not from your bias port perspective. Hepple for me was a late withdrawal, so I don't think too many owners were where I troubled with that one. He's very lowly owned, but Caldwell,
00:27:37
Speaker
Did a hammy in the game. Gotta trade him. Draper did an ankle. I think that's a likely trade as well. It looked pretty serious, unfortunately. And Sheil, another serious injury there with his knee. Who's going to play midfield for the Bombers? Well, by stocks and Andrew Maguire and Darcy Parrish, I think, because that's pretty much 75% of their midfield gone.
00:27:59
Speaker
Yeah there's there's not a heap to go there I've got a few candidates here obviously Parrish McGraw you mentioned they should get a bump especially Parrish people that have been waiting for him to get that bump he really didn't get the bump at the start of the year they just moved McGraw back in there so maybe Parrish finally gets a full proper run at playing as a pure inside mid
00:28:18
Speaker
I don't know I'm still skeptical whether he does get that he should whether he does or not merit hopefully just remains his role obviously is gonna stay the same does hepple go back in there for me I think the messaging from pre-season is that hepple is gonna play half back now so I think that apparently got a couple of CBA's when all the others went down that might have just been out of necessity though.
00:28:39
Speaker
Yeah, maybe necessity, but that's good news as an owner. And then there's Langford, Stringer and potentially Archie Perkins coming in that he's been flagged as a potential debutante. So if Langford is able to attend center bounces and I'm talking 10 or more, he's a serious option. He's a scorer. He's been able to average 85 in AFL fantasy before, which puts him on the cuffs of being a top six forward.
00:29:00
Speaker
And that was when he was attending center bounces. So I think it was last year in the back half, he went at sort of 105 to finish the year. So he's someone I'd be looking at. All right. That's an interesting one there. And Nick Hine, you'd be pretty happy with how he went again.
00:29:15
Speaker
Yeah, definitely. Uh, I was really keen on it. Hey, is he still a target? What is he about four 70 now? Yeah, he's still in the four hundreds. I reckon you're right about four 70 sort of what you're paying for the, uh, the Stevenson. I know you're paying a bit more for Stevenson. We'll get to him. Don't worry about that. You could do it. I would have to see who sort of priced around him and what their break evens are, but I think Hein can average 80 from here on. And if he does, then if you think that's a good enough pick, then pick him.
00:29:42
Speaker
Yeah, it's getting, now he's climbing in price, it's getting riskier every week, you don't, if you gotta do it, this week's probably the last week you do it, isn't it? Yep. Alright, and Moles Bergman, and Harry Jones, two rookies in this game, Harry Jones, gee.
00:29:58
Speaker
The injuries are probably going to save him from getting dropped. You'd hope because he did not have a good game in this one. But Bergman is joking. He'll hold his spot given ports going so well. He sort of junk timed it to get to his score. He was really slow going early days.
00:30:13
Speaker
Yeah, he did eventually get going. Like you said, that first half was pretty hard to watch, but Hartlett didn't exactly do himself any favours in that side either, so he didn't look great. I think there's a spot for him until Bonner's hamstring comes good, which is three weeks away. Alright, hope that maintains. Saints, Melbourne. Melbourne got the Chockeys in that one. Jimmy Webster's out. I don't know how many people ended up.
00:30:34
Speaker
picking him. Yeah, he was popular in the preseason. Tailed off. There was a few in that sort of price bracket, including your Markov's and your Hayden Young's that I think people preferred. He's that classic option you go cold on about a week before lockout, isn't he? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think his ceiling in the past was only in the 70s as well. So it's not a guy that's super tempting. No, he's only 1% owned. I don't know if that's just nasty. Not many people went with you. I would have thought that would have been up at
00:31:00
Speaker
5 or 10. Yeah, me too. All right, those 1% of owners. Sorry, we're not going to talk about him anymore. This was a high scoring game for Fantasy Louie. We had a lot of scores. Gorn obviously was back with his 108, 17 disposals. You just hold strong, obviously. He's back. Hopefully that maintains. James Jordan, he's been a surprise pack at 105.
Rookie Spotlight: James Jordan
00:31:20
Speaker
People without him have got to jump on, don't they?
00:31:23
Speaker
What's he priced at? What's his break even? It'd be out of this world, I think. So if you don't have James Jordan, get him in, because he's going to make 60 or 70K this year. And so this week. And yeah, he's, he's definitely... 282,000 negative 39 break even. Lock and load, lock and load. And a 105 from a rookie is just gold. But we've seen the Rouse and the Walsh's of the world, but this is pretty much your standard 170K bench rookie that you pick in previous years for him to dish out a 105.
00:31:53
Speaker
huge he's tackling as well so he's laid a decent amount tackles first week I think it was nine this week he's not racking up a super amount of disposals playing um I reckon he had a low time on ground he's had a low time on ground both weeks 73% and 65% on time on ground for his hundred this week
00:32:10
Speaker
but he's laying those tackles which might be a concern going forward to maintain that high scoring. This was a high scoring game, as we said. I wouldn't be confident in an 80 to 100 every week, but you've got to just get that cash gen while you can and obviously just field until it fails for me. Oliver and Petrarca were prolific as well, 130, 124. Oliver's still super tempting. Is Petrarca, would you come around to him as a guy being someone to target?
00:32:37
Speaker
I actually like Petrarchan more for 70k less just because I think he's got more of a, he feels every stat line whereas Clayton Oliver is very heavy on the handballs albeit he gets about 40 disposals. A question for you Doss, they come up against Geelong not this week, the week after.
00:32:57
Speaker
Who gets the Marco Connor tag if the tag is real? Oh, Petrarcha, doesn't he? Because I think it's like you're saying the person that's the damaging possessions. Now, Oliver, if you look at the advanced stats, I'm sure has similar advanced stats to a Tom Mitchell who sort of gets that drive and his clearance works fantastic. I reckon you'd go to the Petrarcha to start with.
00:33:19
Speaker
And plus the added bonus of if he goes forward, O'Connor can just follow him forward and not leave his side because he's also a locked down defender down back. I'd say they'd go Petrarcha but you might maybe switch it up if one's dominating the older Yoshui debate that they've had in the past from a calling with perspective in that grand final. Didn't know who to go to, it's a good system, good spot to be in for the Ds. Salem though, is he an option down back as well? 119, have you got your eye on him? It's probably
00:33:46
Speaker
bit weirdly priced and there's probably other guys that we're looking at ahead of him but 119 is a very nice score. Yeah he's an awkward one at his price. He's someone who has been in my fantasy team at various different points in the last few years because he is able to to get on the end of a decent score with his kicking and what I've seen from Melbourne so far is that they want to launch the ball from their defensive half
00:34:08
Speaker
You're seeing Stephen May and what's the other key forward Jake Lever just intercepting marks all the time and they're distributing it and launching from there. So I think he's in the right role for a good fantasy scoring player, but I'm not sure he's in the right team.
00:34:26
Speaker
Yeah, I was wondering, I thought guys like Trent Rivers might take a big step up this year and the fact that they haven't, it kind of makes me more tempted for a Salem type because they've got to give it to someone and it still appears to be Salem. I thought that might have been distributing the love around a little bit, but Salem's the guy by the looks, had a little bit of a quiet first week, but he's bounced back.
00:34:48
Speaker
Yeah, I'm gonna monitor him. He's a guy I'll monitor and see if he really is in that sort of bracket of elite defenders scoring wise in fantasy. Disappointing in Jack Higgins, lucky I didn't start him. I was tossing up between him and some other options at that awkward price. I think I went with butters in the end, ironically. Higgins just not a fantasy option until we say something happened. He's just been really disappointing. Yeah, he doesn't have that midfield role which you'd want for starting him in your forward line.
00:35:18
Speaker
And Brad Crouch is back this week. I think some people are tempted to jump straight on board. I am. Yep. You're tempted. Is it just the price or you reckon really fantasy friendly role? We've seen Gresham and Seb Ross thrive in those sort of roles. Gresham especially for me has looked very, I've always liked Gresham as a fantasy option. He reminds me a lot of Dane Zorko, the way he goes about it. With Brad Crouch coming back, you know, we'll see where that goes. But what tempts you about Brad Crouch?
00:35:48
Speaker
Just two weeks of data to suggest that Saints are going to be a pretty good fantasy scoring team, which we saw last year, and at his price, 700K, I think that's probably 10 to 15 points unders for a form Brad Crouch. All right, I like that. But I'll probably have a look at him. Yeah, and one of the guys that I'm still monitoring, but I
00:36:09
Speaker
You know, I'm, I'm very skeptical on being a premium, premium midfielder. Uh, is Jack another Jack Billings. He's had an outstanding start to the season, but.
00:36:20
Speaker
high mark totals and you he's the guy that we thought though exactly he's that inside outside player exactly is this something you could use is here like i'm wondering from my perspective i've looked at him a couple of times like could i could i go there and i don't want to because we've seen the low side of our billings and it can be a 50 or 60 followed by we've seen the best of him which is can be a what he's scored a 170 has he not at afl level that's the kind of
00:36:47
Speaker
player that he can produce, he's looking more gaff like than ever this year. Do you see yourself sort of monitoring his progress or is he a guy just going to avoid?
00:36:57
Speaker
I'll monitor him and if he picked up forward status it would almost be an absolute lock and load. It's just a bit of a worry how he fits into that midfield with Steele, Crouch and Hanabri probably ahead of him and then you factor in Ross and Gresham on top of that so we'll see how it goes. Gold Coast North the final game of the round. Oh we've got one more after this actually. Oh we've got a
00:37:19
Speaker
Final Saturday game, doc. You more to come. My bad, Louis. You're getting a bit ahead of myself. We spent a fair bit of time. Might have to jump quickly across a few of these match ups, but we don't have much to talk about in Gold Coast North. Absolutely spanked them. But Stevenson, the big one, only the 51 fantasy points, 14 touches, playing a bit more forward. It looked like as well with Anderson back again. Check out the CBA's to double check that he had 10 last week. I'd suggest it.
00:37:45
Speaker
was not up to that. Yeah, three or four on the weekend and what we touched on last week was that Anderson did come back, Cunnington didn't, but Anderson did and Cunnington's back this week. Back this week confirmed. So we saw that Stevenson was already knocked down that CBA order and I think he might just get knocked down again. So that 51
00:38:04
Speaker
Jay, that's going to hurt a lot of coaches, Doss. Yeah, it is. It's highly owned. And is there any shame in trading straight out with the Western Bulldogs match up this week? You flagged it as why you're not picking him last week was the Western Bulldogs match up bloodbath potential this week.
00:38:21
Speaker
What do owners do? Do they hold it out one more week? Gee, do you know his breakeven, Dossie? I'll have to look it up. But I would imagine probably what you paid for him and what his breakeven was. It's not too flash. Don't think you can trade straight away unless you've got no other issues. It's 58 and he's still... Yeah. So he's not going to kill you. No, he still went up 20. He should maintain his price at least.
Gold Coast's Defensive Strategy
00:38:48
Speaker
So,
00:38:50
Speaker
Look, if you brought him in, I don't like bringing a bloke in just to trade him, but there's merit there if there's no other issues. Alright, don't mind that. I've got just one player I want to talk about from this game. Actually two, because you mentioned him last week. Noah Anderson, you mentioned him as a potential cheeky option on the Statesman podcast on Wednesday.
00:39:10
Speaker
Well, I just sort of laughed it off a little bit, Louis, I will say. Just, you know, it's not too bad, not too bad an option. The big 120, though, out the gates, the guy we're talking about an inside-outside player. 55 break even. You couldn't, though, could you?
00:39:25
Speaker
No, you couldn't, but that was some pretty solid advice for those listening on the Wednesday night podcast, I think. And I want to talk about the guy I talked about at the top of the show, Jack Bose. I'm leaning towards thinking he is a legitimate potential top six defender this year. Is that a hot take, Louis? We've seen a big mid 130 score against West Coast in what was an incredibly high marking game.
00:39:49
Speaker
But then he's got the 92 against North, you know, you don't want to take too much in a game against North as well. But I've seen a lot of great signs. Gold Coast being so far a high marking team, which is a sign you want in your defensive line that they're sharing it around that defensive 50. He's now the number one distributor out of defense, because what you've had is you've had Lakosius move up onto the wing.
00:40:13
Speaker
So that's now, Bose is now the undisputed number one dude out of defence. He's also taking those kick-ins pretty much every one. I haven't seen anyone else take one. That's just huge for him. And I'm just, I'm warming towards him as being a legitimate, very legitimate top six potential defender.
00:40:30
Speaker
Yeah, Doss, I actually think you're onto something here. So round one, I thought that the Gold Coast kick mark game style was maybe a bit of an outlier. We're going to see them come back to earth round two, but what we saw around two was that they actually did it again. So I want to see what their defenders can do this week. One more time.
00:40:46
Speaker
And then I think it could be real. Yeah, I agree. Especially, um, you take that West Coast game, it did seem like an outlier, but then you have a game against North. You can't, you can't confirm the data in a game that's a blowout like this. So I agree one more week data, but he's one that I'm monitoring very closely.
00:41:02
Speaker
Hawthorne V Richmond Richmond winning that one pretty easily Will Day was injured don't think he's in a stack of teams But that was the big take out of there, but somebody took his place down back taking a lot of those marks and Racking up a big 135. It's probably not the man you're thinking I'm gonna talk about to start with but big Hardwick Damien Damien not Damien Hardwick
00:41:26
Speaker
What's his first name? Blake Hardwick. 135, 15 marks. Is this purely a draft little thing where it's defenders against Richmond tend to score pretty well? That first week was Essen and Hawthorne as well. High marking system allowed him to do well. He's taking kick-ins though.
00:41:45
Speaker
And I would like to throw out there that he's got a little bit of that observable thirst there, Blake Hardwick. Yeah, Hardwick's someone who has popped in the past, mostly in draft formats of course. I think that's what it is, it's just an outlier 135 in a...
00:42:00
Speaker
But, you know, it follows the trends of those halfback flankers, mate. So maybe you're onto something with Blake Hardwick. He's got a nice break even. He does. I'm considering the old switcheroo and just riding that through because he's a guy I have actually liked in the past as well. I mean, I've got him in a couple of keeper leagues waiting for that to happen. He's now he's taking the kick ins without a Sicily back there, injured all season. I mean, Will Day going down doesn't hurt his own production here.
00:42:28
Speaker
Yeah, he's got a very low break, even 13 for round three. I'd pick him over tech, so I assume they're priced very similarly. Yeah, I'd suggest so. Black Hardwick's at $5.31. Walker quickly is $4.70. He's $60 cheaper. It's an awkward price. If he were $4.70, Black Hardwick, I'd probably be sitting here and saying, jump on.
00:42:53
Speaker
I don't like picking these guys in classic. I really don't like taking the punch. Just especially after seeing a guy like a lucky show this week coming off a hundred failing, but I think it's a different role. It's got kick ins in there. It's purely a defensive role that's showing that Hawthorne's getting that high marking system back there as well, similar to the Gold Coast in the back line.
00:43:15
Speaker
With that Will Day injury though, Dos, do you think that opens up a spot for a Connor Downey to maybe make his debut? Yeah, that's one watch. Because we saw Day was pushing up onto that wing and probably got Downey's spot in the end, so it'd be interesting to see if he comes in. Obviously Wingard's got to get back in that side too though.
00:43:32
Speaker
Yeah, just another rookie to watch out for, though. And we've had a fair few tempting rookies this year already. We've been pretty lucky in that sense. I reckon the rookie carnage is about to happen, though, Louis. There's been a couple of underperforming guys we might end up seeing a few red dots on field soon, I think. There must be in your team, Dos. Yes, yes, it is. Titch and Dusty, both fantastic in this one. Dusty could have had about 10 goal if he didn't hand off.
00:43:59
Speaker
six of them, but he still got a hundred and looking the goods this season. Yeah, we said it the other way. Dusty's in Brownlow form, but I think Dusty doesn't like, like we saw on the weekend, Dusty doesn't need four goals to win a Brownlow either.
00:44:14
Speaker
The last few years we've seen Dusty's been a 90s guy. So far he's started with a bang but I don't know maybe he just falls back to that 90s sort of zone because at the moment Richmond are playing very very well. We don't see Richmond play this well this early in the season.
00:44:30
Speaker
That's a good point. That's a good point. They usually warm to it. They sort of coast a little bit. Yeah. Dusty looks like he's in Brownlow form at the moment as in not, he's always in good form, but he's in Brownlow hunting form. And if you're in, if you're on the hunt for that, that Charlie watch out for dusty. So yeah, don't mind him as a still as a pick. If you don't have him a teach with 111 you're targeting him, even with potentially O'Connor inbound this week. You just reckon he is back to his absolute best. I've seen the same sort of things. He's in my squad already.
00:44:58
Speaker
Yeah, what I've seen from Titch is that even if he does score sort of a 70-80 this week, yes, that'll hurt the bank a little bit in the break even, but for the next sort of 20 rounds of football, 19 rounds of football, he's going to be a top eight midfielder, and I think he's probably 70K under price at the moment. Hold or trade, Tom Phillips. I know he's scored okay. I'm just saying, is he looking like the top six guy that we thought he would?
Hawthorn's Play Style Changes
00:45:22
Speaker
You've probably got bigger issues than Tom Phillips. Yeah, I haven't heard that one. I'd be keeping him for real.
00:45:27
Speaker
Okay, I'm just flagging that hasn't done what we really hoped. Of course, I'm holding and seeing how it pans out. Inside, outside, play at us. Yeah, but I think he's more outside. I'd say he's sort of not that inside guy and he's probably lost all those center bounces that were tempting for that inside facet of the game. I think he's pure outside. Maybe, but we knew we were going to get outsides on Phillips. We did. Yeah, we did.
00:45:51
Speaker
Just, I'm nervous that there's other options looking like he might not be a top six anymore. He's not in a team that lends itself to taking marks anymore. So Hawthorn a few years ago definitely loved the kick mark style, but these days they're just not as good of a team. They don't have the ball users to do it. Seems like it's more just the backline ball. In this game, particularly Richmond, as we know, they give up points to defenders though. So it's tough to tell. Warpool, McAvoy and Nank discuss all three of those.
00:46:20
Speaker
Warpool's going to be under priced soon. It's probably an option to target. McAvoy, what did he score? Only about a 50 or something, wasn't it? McAvoy was very poor. Is he in your squad though? I thought he was. No, he was someone I was looking at.
00:46:35
Speaker
Someone I was going to target for the round two trades, but someone who sort of fitted the mould of the round one Ruckman who, okay, he popped 88, but there's all this data to suggest that Ruckman maybe aren't this good this year. So he was someone I decided to avoid and Nank as well. So for the same reasons as not trusting the Rucktrends, I wouldn't be going out and targeting these guys.
00:46:57
Speaker
Yeah McAvoy's only averaging the 67.5. He had the 88 first week 47 against Richmond which really hurts. He's owned by nearly 10% of coaches too. So what do you do with a McAvoy type in that mid price bracket 492,000?
00:47:12
Speaker
Well you probably picked McAvoy because you want that get out clause for R1 or R2, so I wouldn't be worrying too much. That was sort of, you dug your own grave, that was your backup plan. Your backup plan's not going great at the moment, but at least it's there for when you do need to cut a pole hunter, a Lloyd Meeker and Matthew Flynn.
00:47:32
Speaker
I'd back it another week. Otherwise, just back your R2 or your R1 rookies and cart McAvoy. All right. Yeah, one of two options really. Now, Western Bulldogs, that was a really good game versing. My wiggles, unfortunately, the boys went down, but dogs just dominating possession once more. They were plus 94 on disposals in that matchup. And I had my question. I pretty much touched on it at the top of the pod, but do we just stack dogs in 2021 with this game style?
00:48:01
Speaker
Yeah, if it continues on post-buy, I would definitely be looking at it. Yeah, it's insane. Dunks, Bont, McRae, prolific again, Bailey Smith and Libba, very solid. And Trelore, he lifted late. I saw him, he was frustrated out on a wing, just not getting the ball that much. And I want to check the CBAs again on this one. I reckon he got injected late in the game.
00:48:24
Speaker
Yeah, he had seven or eight dos, so definitely six more than what he had the week previous. Can I just keep rising? Can I just mention as well, how good is Joss Duncly?
00:48:34
Speaker
He's good. Incredible. What's a 122? Why were we worried? He's such a star. Yeah, I know. I was so worried about the tackles being able to maintain him, but it seems like that's his role. That's the accountable football role that he's got in that
Josh Dunkley's Role in Bulldogs
00:48:49
Speaker
field. And that's how he's keeping his spot. The fact, I think the thing that I thought wasn't sustainable was one of two things and the two
00:48:56
Speaker
Fact of three things. So that's what scared me center bounces was trellor was other guys gonna steal those center bounces He's still up there for Senate for the center bounces, which was something we're worried about. He's he's getting a stack, isn't he? To was the tackles that's maintaining itself at the moment It's something that I still think could regress is the tackle numbers which he's been insane at and there was the Disposals being super high given those other two factors. Is he gonna be a bit more accountable? And is he gonna get the center bounces?
00:49:24
Speaker
Dogs have just had that much more of the footy than everyone else that dunks is just absolutely Carving and looking like a must-have forward. I'm still just I'm gonna hold Hold hold back on it until we say it week to week to week But I need to probably jump on the dunk train like everyone else is already on
00:49:43
Speaker
Yeah, so the one difference with Dunkley in that midfield, I've said it before, is he is the accountable one. You've got Bontempelli, who's the star. You've got Jackson McCrow, who's all attack going inside 50. You've got Bailey Smith, who's sort of your brute type of guy. Adam Treloar, locky hunter. They're probably more outside. Yes, Treloar can get on the inside, but he's a quick guy, burst away from the stoppage. Dunkley's the only sort of midfielder of that mole that they've got.
00:50:07
Speaker
Yeah. So he's pretty safe in that role in your opinion as well. And he's doing nothing wrong. He's absolutely going to be a number one trade target for me, especially North Melbourne. And he's still in the 700 K bracket, too, isn't he? All right. Anthony Scott might be in trouble. I'm worried about he's the sort of red dot watch for me. But given how good the dogs have been, he might maintain. And Gaff is the weirdest shit start to the season player that I've seen.
00:50:35
Speaker
I think it's very weird that he's doing bad. I think all of us would have thought the game style, given the open sort of games, high mark player out on the wing, just using his pretty solid leg. I wouldn't say he's got like an elite penetrating kick, but he's got that high, good quality ball use. Even if it's a sort of the shorter kicks, we would have thought he would have been pretty solid, especially with the time on ground and limited interchange. He's been absolutely terrible so far.
00:51:03
Speaker
Yeah, that's what I was going to suggest, Dossie. I don't know if it's maybe just because his legs not as penetrating as some of those other blokes in that Eagles side. I'm not sure if it's because they're launching from the defensive half, just like Melbourne with brass, Cole, McGovern, these types. And he's just getting skipped over on those wings going straight up to the land of the Giants, which is Josh Kennedy, Oscar Allen and Jack Darling. So maybe it's just that there's not a need for the gaff chip kick in between play there.
00:51:32
Speaker
I don't know, I'm starting to think that maybe this is a trend. Okay, and if you're a nervous owner, 64 have averaged over his first two games, 70 and 60. His time on ground has been where we thought it would be, 90 and 91% time on ground. That's not limited game time there. He's got Port Adelaide this week. He does love Optus Stadium, but Port's probably one of his poorer opposition to play. 159 break even. If you were an owner,
00:52:01
Speaker
obviously team dependent based on other things you've got to do, but is here guy, if you're saying maybe this is the trend of it just going over his head, are you staying strong with it or are you just jumping off and jump back on if he comes dirt cheap and looks good again? I'd probably jump off if you're in a position where you've got no other areas to adjust, I think, just because he's still at a nice point in his price where you can go sideways or even up a little to somebody better.
00:52:25
Speaker
Alright, and I have considered stacking dogs. I get that lob, Doss. Yeah, I've certainly considered the option of doing it just to get that early, early jump on the competition. I don't think I can do it based on team balance or cash. I don't have quite other cash, but gee, I'd love to have McCray, Bond, Dunkley ever on this week versus North. Fremantle versus GWS, 5 goal win. GWS look absolutely pathetic.
00:52:50
Speaker
in this game.
00:53:06
Speaker
And just though Giants just smashed on Disposals, this was another game. 3-0 were plus 84 on Disposals, plus 33 marks, just everything. They beat him all around the ground. Andy Brayshaw was one that was carving, looking like a nice option. I'd be a bit scared that this is not something that will continue throughout the year. I think he certainly jumped up from last year, but not the 120s that he's been at.
00:53:30
Speaker
He's playing a very outside game, and that's something that I'd be sort of slightly worried about. But inside-outside player, is he a guy that's tempting to you? He's not a top 8 mid though, is he? Or is he?
00:53:41
Speaker
Hey someone I've looked at in classic this week just to jump on a bloke who I think is going to enter that next level of scoring. So I actually really like Andy Brayshire. I think that he feels every stat line, he tackles, he marks, he kicks, he's able to hit the scoreboard. He attends center bounces, probably hasn't attended as many as I'd like last week. I'm not sure about this week, but
00:54:04
Speaker
Now with five out for the next 12 days minimum, I really like Andy Brayshore. I think he's someone you can sort of buy low now and maybe ride up to an 800K price tag. Yeah, he's already 756, I think. Yeah, he's 756. I think his time on ground though is really nice, 79 and 85%. I reckon Sarong, people were hoping Sarong would do this. I thought Sarong might get up to that 105 kind of guy. It's been Brayshore that's just stepped up another level, hasn't it?
00:54:32
Speaker
Yeah, so the trend actually with these guys that played low time on ground last year, and probably everyone probably should have realised this, including myself this year, is that it's now longer game. So that time on ground doesn't necessarily translate to another preseason. He's going to play more game time. Like Tom Green and Sarong, basically. Yeah, exactly. So I'd worry about guys with low time on ground like a Sarong, although I think he scored okay on the weekend.
00:54:57
Speaker
Yeah, a bit better. I think, I don't think it was much, much more impressive than what we'd, it's not in the hundreds. It was maybe even a high 70s. I don't think he did that great, but Mundy though, Evergreen, 120. Look at him as an option, don't really. Cherro was really solid again. And some people are thinking about him as an option, 98 in this game. Could you, could you, you'd have to go brace your over Cherro at this stage?
00:55:22
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, definitely. And then that's about it from this. We have to talk about the stinking giants though. Timmy Taranto is a guy, he had 42 at quarter time and we were just licking our lips. Owners of Timmy T like most of the comp, I think he's owned by a stack of people. 86 at full time.
00:55:40
Speaker
That's a stinking three quarters that we've had compared to what we thought we were going to get out of him. He was priced at 92. He's not gone much higher than that at the moment. We were expecting 105 to 110 range for Tim Taranto. Looked super under priced. Is he still going to get there, Louis?
00:55:58
Speaker
I think he can. The concern isn't Tim Taranto. The concern is GWS and not returning to their fantasy scoring days. They went to eighth in the competition for fantasy scoring last year. The year before that, they were first. I thought they would bounce back off year, what have you, but just seeing their game style, it's not a very good one. Like you said, they're not a very good team at the moment.
00:56:23
Speaker
The fact Taranto is able to score 42 in the first quarter, massive tick just suggests that there's burst scoring and probably not someone we have to worry about because if he puts it together for two quarters instead, suddenly that score becomes a 120 but wouldn't be worried too much about Taranto because you have a feeling that he's going to get forward status, don't you, Dossi?
00:56:43
Speaker
Los status big call last week on the statesman wednesday show he said. Market in that's the big call status statement was to enter into a forward status i think freaker fancy freaker mother twitted out there as well that he spent enough time forward in in week one that he was well on track to afford forward status of fantasy. Yeah.
00:57:07
Speaker
He's a guy that I want to hold strong with, but like you're saying, if this is just who the Giants are now, I don't want to borrow that. Like I wouldn't be opposed to if you've got nothing to do. If you don't think the Giants are going to come back to being a fantasy relevant team, why would we hold these guys and just let them stink it up every week in our team? If they're going to just get trounced like they did against Freo this week, I don't want to, I don't want to be a part of a team that's just going to get rolled like that.
00:57:32
Speaker
No I think the the upside there with Toronto is that he's probably more of a tackler than your um than your Kelly's and maybe to a lesser extent Canelio so at least he can build his score that way but they're not controlling as much of the pill that's a big concern. Very very concerning. Louis we might get to just a few questions because we're running pretty we've had a very extensive round review this week so we'll just get a few questions
00:57:55
Speaker
from twitter and then we'll finish up here but you can find us at pod pod afl on twitter we will be having a wednesday show with a very special guest not going to reveal who that is just yet but we'll get to any questions we don't answer on this podcast on the wednesday one so just tune into that but we've got one here from nathan q
00:58:15
Speaker
Do I get Charlie Lazaro in? Also, is Sorong to brayshore a stupid move? I think Lazaro, we didn't mention him. I really like him as a rookie option. I saw enough. I know we've got Covington coming in, but I saw enough from him on the weekend. He was a real goer. Full game where he actually played solid time on ground and he got a set in the 70s. He's only got a seven break even and he's still in that really low 200K. I like him as an upgrade from a sharp if he was to
00:58:43
Speaker
to get the sixth certificate from school and not manage to play though. I do like him. He's got a really awkward game this week in that he plays on the Friday three o'clock slot. So we're not even going to know Saturday teams for him, which makes things a little bit hard. I'm not going to sit here and tell you how good a rookie is because the truth is nobody really knows. They've got a low break even then
00:59:06
Speaker
Hopefully you get a nice little price rise out of him. The major concern with Lazaro would be that Hall was the sub on the weekend. De Mont is two to three weeks away. Cunningham is back this week and we already saw that Anderson affected that midfield group already. So I think that there's a lot of things that have to go right for Charlie Lazaro to hold his spot in that side for three to four weeks for him to generate enough cash for it to be viable.
00:59:31
Speaker
Yeah, I'm on the side. I'm pretty keen, but like you're saying that that does put me off a little bit with the, especially with the time slot of the game. And also I think one thing that we probably forgot or maybe didn't forget, but maybe didn't put enough emphasis on with North with the rookies, aside from the fact that these midfielders coming back, we certainly have put enough emphasis on that is just if you are in, in a garbage team and you're a rookie,
00:59:56
Speaker
If they're not touching the footy, there's no chance the rookies are going to be touching the footy. And even though they're cheap and they have great job security in a young team, they're probably just not scoring enough to build that cash up anyway. That's it. I think we're going to see a change with the rookies later on in the year when teams realize that, and North maybe probably already know this already, that, okay, our seasons are right off. Let's get the games into the kids. I want you, you and you.
01:00:22
Speaker
You know, one to three year players at the center bounce. Yeah. Let's start kick starting this, you know, next generation. So I think eventually North rookies will come into relevance, but right now it seems like they're sort of trying to jig their startup.
01:00:37
Speaker
players so that they can play a certain brand of football over a number of years. Yeah. That being said, I'm still very closely monitoring Lazaro. Oh, definitely. I think, especially with the lack of rookies, if you don't already have, you know, all the ones that are popping right now, he's probably the only other one that's there. Just the way he went about it. Really promising science. Matt Mottram, do what to do with Stevo, Jayden Stevenson, would you tick off a de Goey? Well, that's the first question. What to do with Stevo? He's got a few here.
01:01:07
Speaker
So he brought him in last week, or did he start with him? That's a good question, but it doesn't matter, Louis. If you brought him in last week, I think... Is it just a mindset? I think you got to wait. Yeah. You brought him in for a reason. I think you hold, Steve. I know it was worst case scenario last week. I think it's going to be worst case scenario this week. So if that puts you off, then trade him out. But personally, I'd probably wait.
01:01:30
Speaker
Okay, would you tick off a degoi to dunks trade based on degoi playing forward from Matt? We already sort of touched on that. Yep. And last one, can we play the break even game and get techs with suns and north coming up? Can you do it? I
01:01:46
Speaker
I think what we've found, and speaking with Statesman as well on Wednesday and yourself, we've both said this, you just, we've found, even with your Jaden Stevensons, and unfortunately, I really didn't see Lockie Schoplan that poorly. I thought he sort of was a bit more sustainable with a sort of 80 to 85. Hopefully he can bounce back to that. It's one game that he played poorly.
01:02:09
Speaker
We've seen though with these mid pricey guys, they just haven't paid off in most cases and that's probably going to be the case with the techs. Can you just play the break? Oh, you hit the nail on the head right there, Dossie. So last week we were arming and arring whether or not to trade in a Stevenson whose average 80 as a forward at Collingwood.
01:02:27
Speaker
Now this week we're sort of arming and arring over techs priced around about the same. Key forward. No, isn't it? Only on average 55. It's got to be a no. I understand following the break even game, but you can't even look at it as our son's north because that's Collins Tarrant.
01:02:45
Speaker
And there, too, are the better key position players in the competition. So for all you know, TexDish is up at 40 and that cash generation is gone. But like I said earlier on in the podcast, you have to be prepared to carry Tex if you can't get him out of your side. Yeah. Sarong to Brayshore, is that a stupid move? We forgot to answer that question. No, I like it. All right. And even with there's another question about Sarong here. Do you think Sarong gets the bump in the midfield time, though, with Fife out? He did last year, but
01:03:15
Speaker
It's tough to say. I don't know what his fitness base is like. We've seen that that time on ground has continued on from last year. I reckon it'll sort of trend upwards throughout the year, but I'd just watch this space maybe. Tim Guest, two of three out out. Clark, Sarong and or de Goey.
01:03:35
Speaker
Okay. So he wants to decide who to go out. Two out of three of these, Clark's are wrong and or to go and two out of three in dunks dusty and or brayshore. What are your thoughts there, Louie? Uh, so I'll probably go dunks dusty for in and then out. I guess I would go. Clark's are wrong. Who was the third one to go? Yeah, maybe Clark. You can't go wrong with any of those really.
01:04:01
Speaker
I wouldn't trade any of them, but if you're in a luxury spot like that, then I'd be looking at Dunkley and Dusty and then maybe spin a wheel for your last out. I don't know. Sounds good. It's hard when you can't see people's teams. Yeah, it's all very dependent on your full squad. Anthony asks, loving the pod pod. Thanks very much, Anthony. Called well to Butters, Hind or Sloan?
01:04:25
Speaker
Coldwell to Butters, Hind or Sloan. Don't mind Sloan there actually, but I'd probably chase Butters with the lower break even just to guarantee yourself a little bit of extra cash on top of that. Just that forward status as well and maybe just check those CVAs. I don't know if they were up or not, but it'd be good to see if they were.
01:04:44
Speaker
to monitor that shenanigans chucking the doctor to go eat Dr. Goey was the other type of their chucking Dr. Goey and Higgins got in hind with a low break even of 29 and great scores second trade though McCray teach dusty or generate cash with Chad Warner
01:05:06
Speaker
have all other big rookies and the rucks are sound. Cheers lad. So pretty tough to read that one there shenanigans, maybe go to the press release first there and fix that up a little bit, but.
01:05:19
Speaker
What do you think there, Louis? Just try to keep up with that question. Probably I would keep, or rather I'd target the underpriced keeper premium there, which would be Titch. Okay. I think we'll get to the rest on the Wednesday show with our special guest, but thanks very much everyone for listening. Louis, where can we find you on the Twitch? You can follow me, message me anytime at LouisAF, always keen to talk a bit of fantasy.
01:05:44
Speaker
I'm at HK Dawson, follow the show at Pod Pod AFL. Remember to subscribe, follow. And if you listen on an Apple device there, just leave us a cheeky little rating and review. I think we did get a review this week. We might read it out on the next show. Thanks very much everyone for listening and we'll see you on Wednesday for that Q&A. I'll give you a hint on who's coming on.
01:06:07
Speaker
He's coming on to make a noise and make it clear. All right. Thanks very much for listening. See you Wednesday. See you Wednesday.