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History Defeats Itself | A Comedy Podcast
357 Plays1 year ago
In this episode John goes literal and leads a discussion on how history has defeated itself for generations and even provides data points as to why we keep doing this. If we're not careful, it could be end of times. Come for the data, stay for the apocalypse.
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Transcript
Comedic Intro and Podcast Introduction
00:00:00
Speaker
Hey, guess what, guys? You're gay. It's quick. It's quick. All this time to figure it out. There was no hesitation. That's how I come out. I started with, hey, guys, guess what? Guess what?
00:00:26
Speaker
history defeat itself is a comedy podcast. Kevin, John, and Greg are not experts, historians, or even all that smart. Hello and welcome to history defeats itself. My name is Kevin Rosenquist. Thank you for being
Fantasy Football Antics and Social Media Reminders
00:00:42
Speaker
here. We are a comedy podcast that wonders why
00:00:46
Speaker
We as people never learn from our history. And of course, I am joined as always by my two co-hosts, both of which would be more than happy to join your fantasy football league, John Banks and Greg Mitchell. How are you guys?
00:01:02
Speaker
So I'm good but I do have a question about fantasy football. Okay. Am I allowed to pick any football player throughout time or does it have to be someone relevant? It is based on the current season so you probably wouldn't do very well if you were picking like retired or dead players. This at least proves that Jon really doesn't fake it when he fucking doesn't know shit about sports.
00:01:27
Speaker
I have a fantasy football league that's been around since 2000. What's your team called? Sexual chocolate. That's kinda stupid. What? Do you know what it's from? That guy singing? Yeah, it's from coming to America and I even have his face. Like it's my logo. Fuck you. You're gonna suck.
00:01:53
Speaker
Just so you know, this is pretty consistent with what we were recording before the show started. Yeah, it actually is. These guys have been dicks to me from the start. We definitely deserve the fuck you. Yes, we actually had someone leave our fantasy league and I did not ask either one of you guys if you would want to be in on it.
00:02:12
Speaker
Um, my answer would have been a resounding no. Well, here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to do a fantasy league, but I'm going to pick people from every sport. So Lionel Messi's pick number one. I'm going to create the Lionel Messi's a good call kicking ass. Yeah. What does he got? Three goals and two games or something like that. I'm going to bring in like junior high school kids. I'm going to bring in fictional characters like.
00:02:34
Speaker
Thor actually Thor would probably be pretty good. Yeah, he's got a he can control lightning. Are you gonna compete with that? It'd be tough with my lucky charms rabbit Tricks rabbit and lucky charms leprechaun. How are you guys?
00:02:54
Speaker
I'm good. Besides horrible, horrible with football knowledge. I'm in Vancouver, so Vancouver, BC, and it is amazing and beautiful outside. The sun goes down at 9.30. There's amazing restaurants here. You've been really excited about that sun going down late thing. You've told me that several times. You like that a lot. Well, because we finished work and there's still like five hours of sunlight. It's really awesome.
00:03:20
Speaker
Well, John, thank goodness you have that sunlight to keep on being awake. Well, at home, if I want five hours of sunlight after work, I have to stop working at noon, which I'm okay with. I'm like, I'm totally fine doing that. I don't think it's that bad. Greg knows you're totally fine doing that. I used to call John in the middle of the day and he's taking a nap. Well, he's got to be rested if you want him to work for two hours in the afternoon.
00:03:47
Speaker
Two minutes. Do you know how much energy it takes to grow a beard? It's a lot. I'm tired right now. Six energy. Follow us on social media. We're on stuff. Instagram, TikTok. We're on drugs. YouTube. And go to our website, sign up for the Mistorian, our newsletter, which I still have to post for this week. Did you start that again? I did on my own because you guys suck.
00:04:12
Speaker
What do you mean we suck? We kept doing it, you kept stopping. You passive-aggressive fucking idiot. I hate you, Kevin. I hate you. You started again and didn't tell us because you know you're going to quit in two weeks and you don't want us to fucking be... God, I can't believe this stupid podcast makes me agree with John more than you. But it does. That's got to be frustrating.
00:04:32
Speaker
I better drink some more of this. There you go. That'll make it better. Goddamn liquid. What is that? Sailor Jerry rum. You know it's gotta be good because it comes in a glass bottle. Oh, it's a glass bottle. Oh wow. You stepped it up. Do you know how I know you're an alcoholic, Greg? How? Cause you just drink whatever's in the house. It's true he does. You're not supposed to fucking go out to get special alcohol.
00:04:57
Speaker
I mean, you could plan ahead like a civilized human being. I bought this shit on purpose. Again, I will reference this is how I know you're an alcoholic. Nobody goes out, unless they're throwing a party, and says, you know what I need? Rum. Nobody does that. Not just rum. A handle of rum. Yep. This is my fucking podcast, Rum. And you guys know, I'm gonna need two handles.
00:05:25
Speaker
Okay, it's John's turn to lead the crew tonight.
Central Question: Do Humans Learn From History?
00:05:28
Speaker
So John, what you got for us? Oh, geez, I guess we want to get this over with. There goes Courtney again. God damn it. Just so everyone knows, anyone watching on YouTube is just going to see Courtney going back and forth. Well, she's in Canada. She's in Canada. That's what they do.
00:05:44
Speaker
So you know how our show is called History Defeats Itself? I'm aware. And you know how the reason we say that is, or we call it that is, well, because honestly, Kevin's brother is more creative than three of us. But it's also because we always ask ourselves, hey, do we ever learn? So today we're going to talk. That's not really why. Well, today we're going to answer that question. And this could be our last episode. Oh, thank God. Because I'm going to answer the question.
ClioDynamics and Historical Predictions
00:06:14
Speaker
And the question is, we are absolutely 100% doomed to repeat ourselves over and over and over again. Oh, Christ, John. All right. Oh, that's it. I guess I could stop. All right, cool. According to my research. No, so just say you didn't have a thought bucket. No, I did. I actually did. So do you guys know who Peter Turchin is? Gabriel.
00:06:39
Speaker
Peter Turchin? Peter Turchin. I know Peter Turchin. He played for the Montreal Canadiens. And St. Louis Blues. Okay, Peter Turchin. T-U-R-C-H-I-N. I do not. He invented churros. Oh my god, this guy's a hero. Did you say churros? I love churros. I dare say, I would take a churro over tiramisu. Oh, me too, Kevin. I'm right there with you, bud. Wow.
00:07:05
Speaker
Not even close. I think I'd take it pretty easily. I think I'd say fuck you to both of you. John is married to a tiramisu. That's why they're called sous chefs because they make tiramisu.
00:07:22
Speaker
Right? No. All right. So Peter Turchin, so he, we're going to, there's this thing called. A minute ago, you said his name was Peter. No, I said, no, you said that. I see where you get us confused. So, um, am I me or am I you? Dude, that is pretty profound. Kevin's Kevin. I'm Greg and Greg's me. Kevin Socrates.
00:07:51
Speaker
Kevin's quicksand. I am often, often compared to Socrates. Yeah. Socrates nuts. Okay. I don't even, as like you're teasing? I don't, I don't get it. Don't fucking dig too deep, John. Just laugh and go on. What the fuck is wrong with you? Oh man.
00:08:13
Speaker
Okay, well, so I was born in a family, an immigrant family. I really don't think John has an episode, guys. No, I do, I do. Okay, so there's this thing called ClioDynamics that Peter Tertian created. Okay. And we're supposed to know who this guy is and what that is. You actually asked us if that... You know, we don't read. That's true. I read a book, remember? We talked about it a lot. We already did the fucking episode on that one. So we're not going to know what he's talking about because it's another subject.
00:08:40
Speaker
Okay, so you know H.H. Holmes, right? Yes. From your episode? This guy has nothing to do with him at all. I'm out. Okay. I have not read about him.
00:08:50
Speaker
So Peter Turchin, he was one of the co-founders of this thing called ClioDynamics, which is a transdisciplinary area of research that integrates... Can you please speak English? I am. These are actually English words. I don't understand that. Well, that's because you're stupid. Trans is not my fault. Transdynamic? Is that what you said? Okay, you know dynamic.
00:09:12
Speaker
I know what that means. Like Dianetics by L. Ron Hubbard? Exactly. Yes. So it's a transdisciplinary area of research that integrates cultural evolution, economic history, cleometrics, macro sociology, the mathematical modeling of historical processes during the long dore, and the construction and analysis of historical databases.
00:09:35
Speaker
You're not helping me understand. I'm about to. So I had to read that. So basically what this guy does is he takes, he's taken the last 10,000 years of history and basically he's used a mathematical formula to predict future patterns or things that may occur.
00:09:54
Speaker
I bet when AI came out, he's like, fuck, I wasted so much time. He really, yeah, he started this like 20 years ago, like around 2000. And so, ClioDynamics treats history as science. Is he like, I'm sorry to interrupt, is he like, is he a professor? Is he like, what did, do you know what his? Yeah, he's a professor. He's actually, he's like an evolutionary biologist or something like that. He's a professor of John Banks.
00:10:19
Speaker
He has a professional job. He's at a university in Connecticut or something. He's at a university, but I don't know. Because a lot of times, in our episodes, it'll be like these really smart people we talk about, and then we're just like, a researcher, blah, blah, blah. And you're like, researcher? Yeah. This guy's a. It's kind of like code for unemployed, right? He's a tenured professor. OK. Yes. At Connecticut Community College. At DeVry.
00:10:47
Speaker
Hey, they're serious about success. They are. University of Phoenix. So it treats history as science, as practitioners develop theories. McDonald's University. McDonald's, that would be, I would go to that university. Trump University. I would not go to that university. John would be really, you wouldn't even have to study at McDonald's University. No, I would ace it. Especially the McGriddle section. What are the ingredients of an Egg McMuffin?
00:11:16
Speaker
Ag and McMuffin. God, he's really good. He's in the name. He passed, he's good. Yeah, he's good. Let's see, the practitioners should be up there. John, so far I haven't understood a single fucking word. And it's not because of your mispronunciation of everything. It's just because these words are, you're just saying really big words out of context of every other big word.
00:11:43
Speaker
Yeah, I know. Well, you know what they say? They say, shut up, Greg. That's what they say. I have heard that. Yeah. I have to you, unfortunately. I bet you have. A lot. They explain such dynamical processes as the rise and fall of empires, population booms and busts, and the spread and disappearance of religions.
00:12:07
Speaker
Which, a man, I could use a couple of disappearance of those. These theories are translated into mathematical models. Finally, model predictions are tested against data, thus building and analyzing massive databases of historical and archeological information is one of the most important goals of LEO dynamics.
00:12:27
Speaker
I thought you were going to explain this. What did I not explain it? Did you just say it, John? I just read a bunch of big words. Why do you want to do this? Listen, listen, I love reading. No, I don't. I love attempting to learn about things that I can't understand. Right. I want to know what happened to you when you went to Canada. Did they fucking like hit you in the head with something and give you this topic?
00:12:51
Speaker
Do you know that you can buy mushrooms up here out of dispensaries? Okay, did you? No. And have you consumed them?
00:12:59
Speaker
I might, I might be on them right now. Yeah. So can we just talk about that instead of whatever the fuck you're talking about right now? So, well, okay. So right now, Jesus and Allah are sitting on my couch. So, and they're oddly enough arm wrestling. I don't know what that's about. I don't trust them because it's not your $4,000 couch. Okay. So are you basically saying that history is now science and whatever happens is cyclical and it's going to keep happening again and again and again and again and again.
00:13:28
Speaker
until we run out of oil. Until we run out of humans. Maybe humans go extinct and then it just starts again. Basically what it is, this guy, him and other people, but he's kind of like the main guy of it. It would have been nice if we had some guy that fucking wrote his principles in English as opposed to whatever the fuck you're saying.
00:13:57
Speaker
I mean, I don't think you can- Greg, be clear. Stupid people English. Yes. Stupid people English, right. Okay. How about this? Okay. Clio Dynamics uses a bunch of stuff to predict the future.
00:14:13
Speaker
Does that help? Yes. Not even a little bit. So basically what they're doing is so they, uh, and this has started like in the field of science, again, this is like something that's been happening for the last 30 years is they, they take these very.
00:14:30
Speaker
Large things like to understand a society or something like my balls Well, we all know why your balls are large. They're swollen Greg. That's nothing to be to be John it's kind of infection your balls are large infection. Yeah, you yeah, you need to go to the doctor We've been telling you that for years
00:14:50
Speaker
I think the only way to carry my balls is more cowbell. You have testistical leprosy. That's not good. You don't ever want to hear those two words together. That's probably the worst kind of leprosy.
00:15:07
Speaker
Guess what's coming your way. Your balls are going to fall off. Can you just see me? Can you just see me like on some leprosy Island just like running after my walls because they're bouncing all over the place and get that one. I think that's the right one. You're saying that your testicles are our super balls like the super bouncy balls. That's exactly what I'm saying. They're super balls.
00:15:31
Speaker
Okay. Upside. When they hit the ground. Upside. He's fun at parties. Downside. Can't have kids. Yeah. No. It does cause a lot of anxiety. I already have two kids. I think that the plus side is he's fun at parties. The downside is he's very strange at parties. You guys want to watch my balls bounce? It's very uncomfortable for people who don't get the shtick right away. How do you think it feels for me?
00:15:56
Speaker
Just take it. Do you ever just take a paddle and smack them like back and forth like one of those like, you know paddles with a rubber band on it? Nope, I don't do that Because I hurt your stomach Yeah Like this is fun, but I'm gonna throw up John I have a serious question for you. Okay
00:16:16
Speaker
So no, I know that there's like there there there's certain sciences that study like patterns in Societies and sociology and things like that. Is that kind of what this is? Is it like? Yeah, so basically what this guy has done is he's kind of he's taken history and he's taken
00:16:36
Speaker
all these different, like thousands of moments in time over the last 10,000 years. And he's created a mathematical model to basically
00:16:47
Speaker
give. So it's not that he's looking at history so much, but he's looking at humanity, right? Is he trying to prove our podcast? Yes. Yes. That is in his book. He has a book called End Times. We need to get it on here. My God. Yeah. Yeah. He actually prefaces us. Yeah. He's like Greg, John, and then he actually doesn't say Kevin at all. He leaves him out completely, which is interesting. Yeah. No, I get that a lot.
00:17:11
Speaker
I get emails with history to face itself all the time like, oh, John, Greg, you guys are great. Yeah. See you later. That's all I got. Does he look like Harrison Ford? Uh, no, he does not. He's a, so how does he, how does he put it in? And you might not know this. I don't know how deep you got on this, but, but how does he put it into like, like formulas? How does he put it into, how does he put into a formula? So
00:17:40
Speaker
But I mean, like, right? Like, I'm saying, like, I know what John looks like. That question was worth asking twice. So yeah, I guess I didn't change it a second. I wanted to change. John, I thought we fired Greg. Why is he still here? I know we fired him. I got the old pink slip in my locker. Um.
00:18:02
Speaker
Well, I mean, you're terrible at welding. And that's really what we needed for the podcast was a welder. Actually, everybody knows I'm an underwater welder. I can't do it above water, man.
00:18:12
Speaker
I blow shit up. Everybody's got a specific skill and yours is underwater welding. I never fucking lied about that. No, you did. You did have that as the lead in on your resume. I remember that. We just, we just thought it would transfer pretty easily. Yeah. I wore the whole fucking suit. I would just like to do that at the bottom of your fish tank.
00:18:33
Speaker
Greg was like, I'm not sure I answered the right ad. Are you guys looking for an underwater welder? And we're like, yeah, maybe. I don't know. Let's see where this goes. We are going to do a podcast from the ocean. Look, you're the only person who answered the ad, so we gotta figure something out. You're hired. You're hired. So to answer your question, Kevin.
00:18:53
Speaker
I don't fucking know. He just took a bunch of shit and put in a thing and made a thing. He's taking historical occurrences and making them into a mathematical formula. Right, and so what he's doing is he's looking at patterns. So think of it like...
00:19:11
Speaker
How often do how often are there wars in the world, right? So he would look back 10,000 years and he would take a look at like how Often you have a war right and then that would be one data point and the second data point would be how often do Countries fail right when you know our empires fall and then that would be another data point So he's so he's taking thousands of that kind of stuff and and I don't know what he's doing Maybe he's using dice. I don't know. Is he using days from Dungeons and Dragons? Oh
00:19:36
Speaker
Yeah, he's using, he's using legit 20 set of dice to predict the future. And apparently it works. No, he's out in an alley with some cardboard, just like shooting dice. And then breakdancing. He's a professor. He's got to make the bill somehow. Cause he ain't getting it done at the university. He's not getting it. Yeah, he's not getting it. I don't think his research is doing anything either. He's probably tenured him. I think he's making a fortune. He is. He's tenured. Um, quit crapping on him. The word, the dynamics is composed. I just think he's a degenerate gambler. That's all.
00:20:05
Speaker
No, that's me. Here's the thing. He could be. I mean, we can't prove that he is or isn't. It's true. Right? Because oftentimes those kinds of behaviors are hidden and then people are... There is a plaque of him at the Bellagio. So I think that we can prove that. He's like a wonderful like history theorist, but a terrible craps player. Right. Also, also quite abusive to rabbits, specifically rabbits.
00:20:33
Speaker
Don't know why all right well we get him on the podcast now we've insulted him and started all sorts of rumors I mean he doesn't like a piece of shit He actually like I heard him an interview he sounds like a really nice guy yeah How old are the word Cleo dynamics is he's composed of clearly Brad Pitt not at all not at all he looks more like Wilford Brimley without the mustache
00:20:57
Speaker
So he's like a 35 year old grandfather? Yeah, exactly. Okay. I like that. Every, every five generations, there's a new type of DABitis. Actually it's just, I think it's just the same DABitis over and over again. Um, so Jesus Christ, John, your beard's getting really long. Can you let him talk for the love of God?
00:21:26
Speaker
I don't think I'm gonna like what he has to say. So, in Greek mythology, Cleo is the muse of history. So, the muse, Cleo, that's where Cleo comes from. In dynamics, most broadly, is the study of how and why phenomenon change with
Cyclical History and Societal Challenges
00:21:39
Speaker
time. Therefore, Cleo dynamics. God damn it, if it's gonna take this long to get through this, gentlemen, we're not gonna wrap this up until 9.15. Do you remember the Dao? Do you remember the episode on the Dao?
00:21:51
Speaker
But this isn't as complicated as it is. You're focusing on the wrong shit. Sounds worse. Like, I'm just, I just gotta get through this so we can get to the end. No, I just wondered what I, I'll, I'm sorry I interrupted you before. All I wanted to know, I was just wondering about the pattern, that's all. Greg's interrupting was stupid shit. At least I have legit questions. That's true. That's a very good point. Hard. I apologize, Kevin. Thank you. Greg, go fuck yourself. Yes. Alright. Do that.
00:22:15
Speaker
So in, in 20, so in 20, I don't know. Fuck myself. Sorry. John, as you were saying, I don't even know what I was saying anymore. I don't even know what's happening. So in 2010, Peter was Courtney. I miss her. She's outside on the balcony. Okay.
00:22:36
Speaker
Yeah. Oh, she's shutting the door. Oh, she's literally putting a chair in front of the door. Okay. We don't need to play by play on what Courtney's doing. Okay. Well, I mean, you ask. I did not ask. I want John to continue. So in 2010, when the world seemed like everything was going great, he made a prediction saying that around 2020,
00:22:59
Speaker
stuff was gonna fall apart. And at that time, most people were very skeptical of that prediction because they're like, what are you talking about? We have the first black president. People can get married if they're gay or straight, love is love, right? All these things. Did the prophecy come true or did everything turn out all right? In 2020, it turned out great. Okay, good, good. You were there. I sleep a lot. Yeah. And I drink a lot. He was busy researching his podcast topics.
00:23:29
Speaker
Yes, Peter Churchan is very quick to point out that he does not do prophecy. He's basically just taking mathematical data and using that to make a scientific calculation, right? I'm glad he's not slow to point that out. Yeah, he is very quick. He's also quick at sex. Comes in 30 seconds. Poor guy. 30 seconds doesn't seem bad.
00:23:57
Speaker
Oh boy, we know Kevin's wife is living la vida loca. Living the dream. Maybe she wants it to be over fast. Look at Kevin, would you want that guy on top of you? Yeah. 30 seconds is like an eternity. It is. I am very handsome. You gotta imagine she's holding her breath and closing her eyes. And imagining Brad Pitt. Is the breath because I stink? Is that why she's doing that?
00:24:24
Speaker
Uh, yeah, it's because she doesn't want to take you in through any of her senses. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I don't imagine somehow she seals up her pores before going to. Jesus. So no sweat. This is getting weird. Yeah, all the sweat stays inside for her turn sex.
00:24:43
Speaker
Which is why she over-eats often. You should probably do that. What does that mean? Because you gotta sweat. If you don't sweat, you over-heat. Oh, I thought you said she over-eats. That's what I thought he said too. I was like, I don't know if she can feel about that, John.
00:24:58
Speaker
No, no, until then it was fine. She was like, she's a gamer and she's like, yeah, up until then she was like, no, that's accurate. That is kind of how I do this. But now she's like, I do what, John? Whoa, whoa. Now I'm offended. OK. So but I tell you, sir, you've gone too far. Yes, I apologize. Sheena, I apologize.
00:25:26
Speaker
I don't think she listens to this podcast anymore. Courtney definitely doesn't listen. She's not even listening now. She went outside. She wouldn't hear this. At a point where she can only hear you anyway. Hearing a third of this would be even worse than hearing everybody. Honestly, it's the most boring fucking third there is. Man.
00:25:47
Speaker
I just, I feel, I was feeling really good before I got on this fucking podcast with you guys. All right, focus. All right, let's get this over with, let's go. Pretend Greg's not here. But as we now know, 2020 was an absolute shit show. What happened? We had a pandemic, or we had the start of a pandemic, which according to the World Health Organization, over 3.3 million people died globally. The who? The World Health Organization. Oh, the who? Yes. The who? Yes, the who. He gotcha, John, he gotcha. He did, he did.
00:26:14
Speaker
Pete Townsend basically said 3.3 million people died. National protests began in May with the death of George Floyd while in handcuffs and being killed on the ground.
00:26:37
Speaker
Dozens of cities were placed under curfews as protesters marched all over the nation to revolt against police brutality. Videos circulated of police pepper spraying
00:26:45
Speaker
protesters and journalists with some officers shoving marchers to the ground. Protesters set police cars on fire, vandalized stores, took over some parts of cities for many months. The National Guard was called into many cities to protect property and prevent violence. And I don't like this. I remember like we actually had
00:27:06
Speaker
I mean, you can interrupt. I don't understand. You're bumming us out, man. That's us drinking away our sadness. No, gotcha, gotcha. I didn't, I was like, well, I don't understand. I remember like that was crazy. Cause I didn't know like the National Guard was downtown and you like go outside and there's just fucking like tanks and shit and guys with M16s. I don't think that's what it is. Like young guys, you know, like 19 year olds with guns. And you're just like, man, I don't know how good I feel about this. Have you ever gone to Mexico? Yes, that is creepy. 12 year olds with guns.
00:27:34
Speaker
Oh. Oh, I thought you were talking about prostitution. I'm sorry. I mean, hmm. No, no. The prostitution of guns. You keep saying the things that should stay in your head out loud. Yeah, I don't do that. I let everything out because it hurts my head to keep it in. John, your hair looks fantastic today. Thank you. It does look good. That bothers me. I feel pretty Canadian. Yeah, it is. It's the Canadian air. I don't know how he's able. It's the free health care. That's what's doing it for him. Yeah.
00:28:04
Speaker
How does he get that much of a flip going? It's a lot of gray. It's just reaching for this. It's trying to escape my head. But I keep stapling it down. All of this was exacerbated by the- Were you checking your watch just now? To what? Were you checking your watch? No. No, I burped.
00:28:26
Speaker
You burp like you're looking at your wrist. Is that weird? This is so boring. Listen to you talk, Greg. Okay. Stop. This was exacerbated by the 45th president who rather I'm trying when that's boring. Okay. Yes. Yes you are. Yes.
00:28:44
Speaker
I don't know what I was going to say. All of this was made worse because we had a president who, instead of trying to unite the country, took every opportunity to divide his even father. Kind of like I'm your own machine. Actually, that is a great analogy. My God. Oh my God. Did you guys hear that Trump is leading second place DeSantis like 54 to 17 or something insane like that in the polls for the Republican nomination?
00:29:08
Speaker
I did. I mean, the guy just keeps getting indicted. He gets more followers from it. It's so weird. I'm not saying DeSantis is a great option. I'm just saying the fact that he's that clearly ahead of everybody in the second place. Trump will be reelected. Well, I hope not. That's the worst thing that we've ever said on the show. Yeah, yeah. Because he will be, though. But we're going to get into why Trump exists.
00:29:38
Speaker
Right, we're actually going to get into that. See, when a mommy and daddy pretend to love each other very much. Nope, nope. When a man has sex with a prostitute and doesn't wear protection. There you go. And as a baby, he leaves him a trust fund with $220 million or whatever it was. And says, go do something, but don't make a splash. Just keep quiet. Keep quiet.
00:30:04
Speaker
Whatever you do, just get out of my house. I don't care what you do, but you can't do it here. Right. And finally, this dumpster's fire of the year ended with the loser of the presidential race, Donald Trump, refusing to concede his loss just a few days into 2021 when he incited a riot at the Capitol. I feel like he got charged with something for that recently. I mean, recently, yeah. No, it took four years. He did say he was innocent, though.
00:30:36
Speaker
And it's it until proven quilty which doesn't make sense to know it doesn't it doesn't yeah Is it because you're gonna make a quilt? I don't know grandma you'll get it So you get it is what you're saying Craig?
00:30:52
Speaker
In a time article written by Michelle Chan on June 16th, 2020, Turchin said, as a scientist, I feel vindicated, but on the other hand- God, this guy really likes himself because he's gotta introduce everything he ever says by saying, as a scientist, as, well, yeah. Call me doctor. Well, he can't, he can't say as a gambling addict, as a, as a premature ejaculator. I mean, they know he's a scientist, but he's gotta fucking say it over and over again.
00:31:24
Speaker
Damn it, I missed John's joke. As a rabbit murderer. Was that it? He hated rabbits. A rabbit murderer, right. So as a scientist, it's way more professional. He said I feel vindicated, but on the other hand, I am an American and I have to live through these hard times.
00:31:43
Speaker
So he doesn't want it to be true. Did he make any, like, was there any data that pointed to anything in particular, or was it just that shit was going to go down? Is that what the data said? Well, so basically, it's a cycle of about 50 years, give or take, maybe 60 years, maybe 40 years, but it's these pretty common. Maybe 30, maybe 20, you know? Well, it's somewhere between 40 and 60. And so basically, like,
00:32:14
Speaker
I'm going to get to that. Sorry. Sorry. I'll stop. I'll start in Kevin. I'll set up. So stop asking questions. That's not your job. I'll just, I'll just, I'll just log off. Can I walk off? Yes. Please do. Please do.
00:32:32
Speaker
After spending the last 20 years of studying crisis in America and the structural defects that helped cause them, Turchin says many signs show the U.S. was spiraling toward unheaval in this decade. Unheaval? What's unheaval? Upheaval. Oh, that's better. Yep. That's better than unheaval.
00:32:50
Speaker
I wasn't gonna question it. I'm like, I don't know that term, but that's fine. It's like Clio Dynamics. Whatever ends the show faster. Whatever gets me away from the two of you quicker, I'm fine with. I'm really starting to hate you guys. And I'm not even very near you. I'm literally like the farthest away I could be from both of you and it's not far enough. And it's not enough to not hate you. We actually get together on purpose. I don't know why.
00:33:20
Speaker
It's true. This is our free time. Yeah. And this is what we choose to do with it. I'm giving up having sushi right now. Why are you fucking listening in real media? So according to Churchan's Clio Dynamics, America, as well as all other societies, experienced stretches of turmoil about every 50 years. For example, in America in 1870, there was heightened tensions during the reconstruction era after the Civil War.
00:33:44
Speaker
Starting in the mid-60s, there were many political assassinations, much civil unrest that turned into riots while people were protesting racial and gender inequality, and protesting against the Vietnam War.
00:33:57
Speaker
What does it get for? Using his mathematical models, he factored in economic patterns such as declining wages, wealthy inequality, exploding national debt, and other social pressures
Predictive Models and Societal Turmoil
00:34:06
Speaker
that affect national... Lots and lots of social pressures, yeah. Yeah. It's interesting. And so the model showed socioeconomic turmoil in the U.S. would come to a boiling point in the years around 2020. What are you laughing at, you dumb shit? Just because you don't understand it.
00:34:22
Speaker
It's interesting. No, it is interesting because I can see how the bubbling, although I will say that things were getting a little better seemingly for women's rights and for homosexual rights and stuff for a bit there. And then we reversed. We pulled the rug out from under a society. But he's saying the data showed that things were trending in the wrong direction.
00:34:52
Speaker
Right. Well, what's crazy is, so one of the things I learned, so when economists are looking at the health of an economy, some of the things they look at have nothing to do with the actual economy. They look at average height of a society. They look at the average
00:35:11
Speaker
Death right, you know, so at what age does that society live to average girth and yeah They look at girth. Yep. Yep Sexual how long do you last in bed? That's another one that they use And so Kevin like if we're using Kevin as a metric Not great trouble not best. Nope. Nope. We're literally on the precipice. Oh
00:35:35
Speaker
So according to his models, societal crises can typically last for five to 15 years, right? So basically if we, well, and that's what's, it's kind of fucking crazy because basically it's gonna go one or two, like the best case scenario that we can probably have over the next couple of years is like kind of the turmoil of the sixties and seventies, right? So we may end up with political assassinations again. There's gonna be more protests, you know, and we're kind of in this tamp down moment.
00:36:02
Speaker
But, you know, there's still the problem is there's still all this like rhetoric from the left and the right, right? And it's like there's villainization of both parties, villainization of, you know, it's like you're either you're the red or blue, you know, and so it's like there's it's people are taken sides. It's very tribal. So it is. We're still like in a very dangerous time, like as far as what can go wrong. And the worst case scenario would be just all out civil war. Right. So I still say I still say my episode about splitting this country up. I did two of them.
00:36:30
Speaker
You did. We should think about it. I mean, after reading this, I'm kind of like, well, you know, what the problem is, right? So basically what you have to do is basically every 50 years, you got to split the country. This episode is not bumming me out at all because it's just repeating itself. So who gives a fuck? Right. We got through it once. Well, and that's, and there is like, there is like light at the end of the tunnel. So just bear with me. Don't. Oh yeah. I'm going to dangle this carrot of optimism.
00:36:58
Speaker
But not yet. Not even here yet. Oh, it's not a carrot. Actually, carrots give you cancer. Don't eat carrots. They do? No. I can't back that up at all. Because I love carrots. They're great for your eyes. That's true. No, they're not. That's a... Nope. That's a wives' tale. Shut up, Greg. Oh, okay. Yeah, wait. What? What about your radical help? I said shut up, Greg. No, no, no, but I'm talking about the carrots.
00:37:21
Speaker
No, I agree with you, Kevin. Shut up, Greg. But before you do, answer this question. So the main indicators for such times include the following five things.
00:37:36
Speaker
All right, so you have something called popular, how do you say it, amarization, popular amarization, which basically is impoverishment, right? And so to measure an economy, social scientists look at many factors including, but not limited to, life expectancy, average height of a country, and wages. In the United States, for the first time in our history, the life expectancy of Americans has gone down rather than going up or staying flat.
00:38:04
Speaker
Right. So for the first time in our country's history, our life is actually going down, which is a very big indicator of things are going wrong. I wonder why. Well, but it's like crazy because it's like wrong about like they're going wrong within the economy as well. Maybe we're having a shorter life, but it's just fucking bitch in her. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's it. No, that's definitely, that's, that's also a metric that they look at party. That's the problem. So, um,
00:38:33
Speaker
So you have that, and then you have something called elite overproduction. And this is the greatest indicator of trouble I've had. So elite overproduction is a fancy way of saying, too many rich people competing for resources. And so according to Turchin, a good example of this was in the run up to the 2016 election. There were 17 people in the running for the Republican nomination for president.
00:38:59
Speaker
And that was like a first, right? And it's kind of repeated. And so basically, what he makes the case for is that you only have a certain amount of space when you talk about elites. So think of it like professors, lawyers, like high education positions or big power positions. There's only 100 senators. There's one president. There's one vice president. There's 400, whatever, or 500, whatever.
00:39:26
Speaker
Congressmen, I think it's 455, 435, something like that, right? So basically, you have all these people who are competing for that, if you look at like a resource, and when you get too many of those people, then people start to cheat, or do unethical things, or like- Or inexplicably get voted in.
00:39:47
Speaker
Yeah, well they start breaking rules right and then so if one person starts breaking the rule and Gets an advantage because of that then other people start breaking the rule right and so then it's like you start having like a societal breakdown right and Like decency I guess would be the best way to describe it it happened. You're bumming me out
00:40:07
Speaker
So too much competition is a bad thing. For a society to work you need elites to pull the levers of a society, but when you have too many elites competing things become dangerous. Another really good example of this would be the overproduction of lawyers. So for every three lawyers that graduate college now, or graduate law school, there's one job opening.
00:40:28
Speaker
So that means it's a three to one, so we're over-producing. And so then what happens is you get something called counter-elites. Counter-elites are basically people who have money, who have education, who have success, but they aren't in the club because the club's too small and they can't get in, which is what Trump is, right? Trump would be considered a counter-elite because you have counter-elite and you have dissident elites. Counter-elites basically
00:40:54
Speaker
They want to destroy the system and dissident elites, which is actually what you want in a time like this, dissident elites want to change the system within. So like dissident elites would be like people who have left mainstream media because they feel censored and they're like gone out and started their own podcast or own news organizations or whatever.
00:41:14
Speaker
JD Vance would probably be one. RFK Jr. You know, and again, it's like RFK Jr. has some crazy ideas, but he's also, he's trying to work within a system to change stuff, right? So he's not saying, let's revolt. He's like, let's change this, right? Whether you agree with him or not. So dissident elites is what you need. Because basically, good leaders will unite a populace
00:41:42
Speaker
who's disenfranchised and is able to shift them towards something that will actually benefit society where you have someone like a counter elite like Trump who ignites the populace to basically just like, let's burn it all down. So you're saying RFK Jr. is a good elite? Don't think if it's good or bad, right? That's all I understand things. All right, so let's say that you're Kevin.
00:42:09
Speaker
Right? And the Dow. I lost me. I don't know how to explain it. I get what you're saying. I get what you're saying. But still, I mean, let's be honest, RFK Jr. is, you know, not doing great things for us. Well, but the thing that he's not doing is he's not saying that the government needs to go away. He's not saying he needs to drain the swamp.
00:42:32
Speaker
I don't agree with him on vaccine stuff, right? And he's very, that's like a big- He's a big conspiracy theorist. Yeah, right. But, but he also is somebody who's really smart. He's very educated. He has a lot of money, right? He's in a position of power. And so, you know, basically he's trying to change the system within. So he, he's what's known as a dissident. So now we know why John did this episode.
00:42:56
Speaker
He's lobbying for RFK Jr. He's kind of a fanboy. Well, Jamie Vance's one too. Well, this is, so what's crazy is, so this guy basically, so revolutions usually come from left leaning beliefs. Sure. Right? And so what Peter Turchin says in his book, Into Times, he talks about how that what makes America unique at this point in time is that the
00:43:21
Speaker
It looks as though, or if you look at all of the data, it looks as though the revolution is going to actually come from the right, right? And so what's happening is because basically Democrats
00:43:34
Speaker
the Democrats do policies and things that really target about the top 10% of America where the Republican Party, because of their policies, whether you agree with them or not, they're pulling a lot of conservative Chinese who have immigrated, they're pulling a lot of Latinos, right? So they're pulling a lot of groups who are traditionally Democrat to Republican. Anyway, you guys look bored and I've talked a lot, so say something. No, it's not that I'm bored, I'm just- Dick joke, dick joke, dick joke. Insert here.
00:44:05
Speaker
Hey, that was a good dick joke. That was a good dick joke. For 30 seconds. Yeah, and also that's one of the crazy things is that lawyers have actually been, in many revolutions, lawyers have actually been kind of the catalysts of that revolution or have really started, because it's never like the welder or the, it's not the farmer who actually starts the revolution, it's wealthy people
00:44:32
Speaker
who are outside of that system who have the means and the voice or like the audience, they can get themselves out there where they can rile people up and then even the Bolsheviks were financed by a very wealthy Russian guy. Oh, it's like Ross Perot, right? Yeah. Well, that was like Bernie Sanders would be considered a dissident elite.
00:44:57
Speaker
And then he gets a really big following of passionate people that are just like fucking Bernie or die Yeah, yeah, you know and it's and again Bernie was for the working man and that's like that's usually what revolutions are about
00:45:12
Speaker
Well, and so the third thing, like the five things, so the third thing is failing fiscal health. So is when you have a large income gap, wage stagnation, inflation, and the wealthy escaping paying the same percentages of taxes as the middle class or poorer classes of society, right? So like in the 40s, 50s, and 60s, even though we had like turmoil in the 60s and 70s, like the fiscal part wasn't part of it because we had a high enough tax
00:45:39
Speaker
Bracket on the wealthy where they weren't able to siphon off all the money and because we've changed because we've eroded that every year basically It's like wages have it moved in 30 or 40 years wealthy have just become more and more like from 2017 to 2020 the number of people in the United States who have ten to ten million dollars or more increased tenfold and
00:46:01
Speaker
Right. Is it either of you guys? It was. Yeah. You squandered $10 million? I did. I did. It was all through squirrel meat. It was all through his pyramid schemes. Shouldn't have put everything in FTX. That was a mistake. Yeah. Yeah. I lost it all, but yeah, for a moment there. That's Bitcoin doing. I don't even, I don't even know. Uh, not great. No. I mean, not great. Is it below 30?
00:46:31
Speaker
Is it what? Is it below 30,000? Because it wasn't like kind of bouncing around 30,000 for a while? I don't know. I don't know the number. I just know that my crypto's not doing very well. All right. All right. Um, then you have something called like the fourth stage of that is weakened legitimacy of the state. What is it? Nothing. He said at Bernie's. You said weakened and I said at Bernie's. We get legitimacy of the state at Bernie's. A fascist tale of death. We're back to Bernie Sanders.
00:47:01
Speaker
Uh, so, and this is basically people experiencing, uh, immunization. They start to lose faith in tax funded institutions as well as state run institutions such as universities. Right. And so that's, and I will say like, right, like middle America, because basically, you know, colleges used to be a place where you would go and you could surely, you know, you could speak your mind and share ideas, stuff like that. And now the left has really made it hard. Like freedom of speech is not something you have at colleges anymore.
00:47:27
Speaker
Right, and there's like, now there's, what is it called? It's self-editing or self-censorship, where we won't say something because we're afraid we'll get canceled. Not we, but just people in general. People, yeah. Well, not us, we say everything. We say everything. We say penis poop, penis poop, because we're five years old. I don't think those are the things that get people canceled.
00:47:49
Speaker
You don't know. You're not a doctor. I mean, you're not. That's accurate.
Optimism Amidst Doom
00:47:59
Speaker
And finally, the fifth thing, which doesn't really affect America because we're such a big economy, but like the fifth thing that causes
00:48:07
Speaker
problems in countries is outside geopolitical factors. One of the examples we could point to for the United States is when Russia was using social media to manipulate most of us, right, and to divide us. Like, they did a really good job of that, so that would be outside for us, but it's not like Russia can't really affect our economy.
00:48:26
Speaker
Um, so they did manipulate the shit out of me. They did. They did. But guys, don't lock yourself up in a closet and drink yourself to death because there's light at the end of the tunnel. Yeah. I told you the light. Yep. I'm actually in my closet drinking right now. This is just, this is a, like a zoom background kind of thing. You have a big closet. Yeah, you do. You should, you know what though? You should put more things in there to hang stuff on. I feel like you're wasting a lot of space. I don't have a lot. I don't have a lot of stuff.
00:48:57
Speaker
to hang. Well, I know you have nine t-shirts. So, do you not hang your, do you fold your t-shirts? Are you more of like a fold it kind of guy? No, I'm a hanger. I can't, I can't dry them because they shrink. Yeah. I'm tall, you know? Yeah, you are. Tall drink of water. Um, so the data shows that even though we seem to be stuck in an infinite loop of poopy diapers,
00:49:26
Speaker
We're slowly moving the needle. That's how I feel for sure. We're just standing in shit all the time, right? We're actually moving the needle like slowly like through every cycle And so basically it's like every time we get into one of these situation like every time we get in one of the way he calls end times You know if we can get through that without dying
00:49:49
Speaker
Well, without dying and also without the country dissolving. Better than everybody dying. Yeah. That's the other thing. If you look at the Civil War, the Civil War into their reconstruction would have been one of these times. That was 600,000 people died, right? Or something like that. It was crazy. So hopefully we don't get into that. So as democratic institutions advance, we as a world are showing more cooperation among nations and within our own society.
00:50:18
Speaker
Right? So meaning that it's like with democracy and with all this stuff, we be, you know, if you look at a thousand year timeframe and you have the cycle every 50 years, it's like every time the cycle gets a little better overall, not necessarily country by country, but if you just look at the whole thing, it gets better. Right? So that's good, huh? Great. That is good for people who are living like 50,000 years from now when the cycle gets to a point where we're okay.
00:50:47
Speaker
Yeah. We just need to get out of this cycle because in 50 years, we'll be dead. So whatever, you know? Yeah. We'll be quitter. And only last five to 15 years. Yeah. So history shows that with good leadership and taking appropriate action can prevent turmoil or civil war. We can look at this with FDR with the new deal. So like in the late 1920s, America was on the verge of falling into an end time.
00:51:11
Speaker
But with FDR being able to rally society, he was able to pass legislation that helped the middle and lower class, which was able, which stabilized what would have eventually probably fallen into civil war.
00:51:24
Speaker
Or, you know, maybe not Civil War, maybe the country breaks up. You know, it could also not end in violence. There's definitely a way, you know, but it could, like in your episode, it could end in a split. We could literally split the country, you know. Probably won't do that. We're probably, with all the guns, we're probably more likely for Civil War, but... Well, we also want to use them.
00:51:44
Speaker
The guns? We have them. We do. Well, that's the thing. You know, you don't want your bullets going bad. You got to use them before they spoil. The FDA has expiration dates on those. You ever open up a package of bullets and it's like expired? It's like so much worse than milk. It stinks. It stinks. Well, it's like clunky. It's kind of like old milk.
00:52:03
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, you pour them out and they're just like, you know, it's just awful. They make that noise, that bing, bing, bing, bing. I didn't know these things could go off just by pouring them. I don't think we understand guns. No. Bullets. Those are bullets, John.
00:52:24
Speaker
So I talked about the counter-leads. And then so there's two ways to prevent end times. And this is for a populace to organize. So basically for enough people to agree on something and say, okay, this doesn't work. So that's not going to work. What's choice B? Or the elites in power realize that a large population close to bloodshed
00:52:46
Speaker
is very dangerous for them, so they will make policies and laws to balance the power. There you go John, there you go. Now we've figured it out. So basically we have to be on the precipice of killing almost every elected representative. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Gotcha.
00:53:05
Speaker
So we know what to do. Everybody organize. You heard it here first. No, no, no. We're not advocating violence. Everybody organize. Get your signs. Get your signs. Because that works. Get your machete signs. Please stop. Please stop being assholes. Can you stop? All right. Well, so that's end times, fellas. Yeah. So when I went to an episode, what is the topic? Is it end times?
00:53:35
Speaker
Well, no, it's basically like because I was saying that, you know, we history, we always talk about how history repeats itself. And according to Peter, Peter Turchin, it does. But also, according to him, it's not our fault. It's in the data.
00:53:47
Speaker
It isn't the data. Yeah. We have no choice. We can't break free of this cycle. So there's no free wall. No. And there's some that would say that because we are made up of atoms and molecules and all that, we have no control over our lives. Those things are going to do whatever they're going to do. Some people all say the earth is flat too. And gravity just happens because there is no gravity. Just stuff doesn't float away.
00:54:14
Speaker
We know all this is bullshit and that Jesus is the one true savior. According to John's t-shirts.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
00:54:21
Speaker
So I was kind of curious though, because when he talks about, you know, religions fade away. And so it's like, I wonder, you know, Christianity is like over 2000 years old. So yeah, that one's not, doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Well, but, but you know, more and more people are, are non-religious in America now. You know, it's like every year that, that's so they're like Jews and Judaism is way older than Christianity. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But I don't know. I don't, everybody can get on the right track.
00:54:44
Speaker
What's the right track? I think you know. Judaism? Oh, is it Judaism? Yeah. You don't practice Judaism. You don't know what I practice. You light some candles once a year. Give me a fucking break. And he goes to atone for a sense. He's never apologized to me, but apparently he goes to apologize. There's nothing to apologize for you. Oh my god. I'm sorry. How often do you eat pork? I'm sorry. Did you try and apologize for me by saying, I'm sorry.
00:55:15
Speaker
Way to skirt the question. How often do you pork? Every single opportunity. How often do you are eating bacon right now? Hey, it's just kosher. That's not really a real fucking thing. Oh, man. Courtney and I got this Bloody Mary mix when we were in Eugene, Oregon. Was it pork in it? I don't know. But this Saturday, I was just thinking Bloody Mary's little bacon and celery and all kinds of stuff in the Bloody Mary. Shrimp, crab claw, turkey leg. You know, Bloody Mary stuff.
00:55:44
Speaker
Um, I gotta get ready for my last shot. Yeah. If you want a last shot. Absolutely. It's actually called the last call, but you know, whatever. Well, last call. Here's to Kevin being right all the time. Yep.
00:56:00
Speaker
I will definitely choose that. John, do you have an actual last call that you want to do? Do I have a last? I mean, my thing would be, um, hey everybody, uh, God help us all. God help us all. I already drank it and it's fucking terrible. You guys were right. Yeah. Cause it's rum. You bought a fucking handle of rum. It's disgusting. Yeah. Sailor Jerry rum. You make terrible choices. Terrible. Oh, that's disgusting. I'm going to throw up.