Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
WCAD 3-34: CONCACAF Final Round WCQ Preview w/ Jon Arnold
67 Plays14 days ago
Favorite guest Jon Arnold of Getting CONCACAFed joins Austin and Amit for a deep dive into the Final Round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying. Are Panama, Jamaica and Costa Rica the favorites for the World Cup? Who of Guatemala, Curaçao, Haiti and Honduras will put up the biggest fight / find themselves in the Intercontinental Playoff? Plus, insight into Bermuda's Cinderella story!
Recommended
Transcript
World Cup Qualification Overview
00:00:01
Speaker
It's the World Cup qualification stretch run, folks. Over the next three months, we will hand out 29 World Cup tickets. All but six will be handed out by the time we hit November 18th.
00:00:14
Speaker
We have 122 matches in this week coming from Connival, CONCACAF, UEFA, and CAF. This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. And admit, it has been getting real, and it is as real as it will be.
00:00:29
Speaker
This is crunch time. The stretch run, as you said, Austin. I just can't wait for all these matches. Bid's handed out. it's It's just getting my my blood going. i'm I'm a little hyped up.
00:00:41
Speaker
I can tell. I can tell you've had your iced coffee this morning, which is always good. That's what we're looking for on this show.
Focus on CONCACAF
00:00:46
Speaker
A little bit of programming note. Here's what we're to We are going to go deep on CONCACAF on today's show.
00:00:52
Speaker
Later in the week, we will have a preview of CONOVOL, UEFA, and CAF. And we will also have a Patreon-exclusive show for our beloved patrons where we will be talking about the three host countries and where they stand with less than a year to go in the World Cup quarter.
00:01:09
Speaker
Less than a year to go until the World Cup, I should say. All right, CONCACAF enters crunch time. 12 teams, three groups, three spots in the World Cup, two in the Intercontinental Playoff. And emit who better to break down CONCACAF than the CONCACAF man himself? It is getting CONCACAF's John Arnold. How does that work with the with the two apostrophes?
Insights from John Arnold
00:01:29
Speaker
Can we do that, John?
00:01:31
Speaker
I've been here the whole time, listener. um It only has one apostrophe. It's just CONCACAFED and then apostrophe S. I see. I like the apostrophe D, though. yeah are you Are you interested in a change? ah My favorite apostrophe CONCACAF is that I, as a long-running bit in the newsletter, I do the plural Z. So when I write reggae boys midfield or whatever, I just stick the apostrophe on the Z. like it. I don't know how many people have noticed that, but I do it every time.
00:01:59
Speaker
As you guys know, when you like are creating content for an audience that is like beloved and and good and vibrant, but somewhat niche, you got to find little things to kind of keep you going.
Bermuda's Progress and Future Contenders
00:02:09
Speaker
And that's one of my my little joys.
00:02:11
Speaker
All here for international sports grammar. Yeah. Niche little spots. Love it. When you're your own editor, you get to set the style guide, right? The style guide is what you say.
00:02:24
Speaker
so I do what I want. All right, so let's go first things first here, John. We've gone through an elongated process, time-wise, not necessarily match-wise, to cut the CONCACAF field from 32 to 12.
00:02:37
Speaker
Did we get any surprises in that process to you, and did we learn anything that will matter to what's for what's to come? but I think the surprise is, a that Bermuda is still here, um which is cool and fun. I just spoke with Michael Finley, the manager of Bermuda, this week. We can talk more later in the show about kind of how that conversation went what they're expecting.
00:02:58
Speaker
um But someone had to come out of that group. like It's not a massive surprise because you knew the two teams were going to qualify and you knew that there was one sort of favorite and no one else really looked like, oh, yeah, it's a traditional power who's going to come out.
00:03:14
Speaker
and And I think like the very early rounds as well gave us a little surprise drama. It's been like literally years now, but I think like it is something to keep an eye on, especially as the world cup expands. Like I don't like, this is not Bermuda's year spoiler before we get to that section that I teased 20 seconds ago.
00:03:31
Speaker
Like Bermuda's, not going to make the World Cup in 2026. But I do think that in like 2030, 2034, you're going to have countries that right now we don't think of as soccer nations. We don't think of as contenders who are going to, if not make the final tournament, who are going to make like life difficult, who are going to upset...
00:03:52
Speaker
a North American team. It's just going to happen. and And like, maybe that's a hilarious canary in the coal mine to be like, Anguilla is actually hanging with Turks and Caicos. But like, I do think it shows the the frequency of Nations League and sort of the big picture men's football strategy that CONCACAF has implemented.
00:04:10
Speaker
Like, yeah. You gotta give CONCACAF credit, unfortunately in some ways, right? like But like the the infrastructure and what they're doing big picture, I think is smart and working.
00:04:21
Speaker
So that that to me is a surprise and that's what we learned is that like, ah probably too early to have a total out of the blue contender, But when you combine the growth and World Cup expansion, I think we learned that there are teams that are going to be serious, that are going to compete.
00:04:37
Speaker
Remuda is actually not a bad example. Like they have invested resources. They have a coach who knows the region. And like now they're in this series of games that you never would have thought they'd be in. So there will be more teams like that, I think is what we learned.
00:04:49
Speaker
Amit and I talked about it in in June, John. We played that how many goals will the pot one team score against the pot five teams games, right? And you saw it in those matchups. Look, none of the pot five teams had any sort of success, but we weren't seeing these inflated scorelines that you've seen in the past in CONCACAF. Is that to you down to the fact that teams are playing more regularly than they have?
00:05:10
Speaker
I just think that the margins are so much smaller now because you you almost they are incentivizing teams to care and take things seriously. And when you have the same players show up, you know, i just did the Marshall Islands first ever international game, right? They played two games.
00:05:24
Speaker
The first one was fine and they were happy. They lost to the U.S. s Virgin Islands. They just were happy to have a team, right? Then the next couple days, they're like... kind want to do better. And they did.
00:05:35
Speaker
And next time they get together, they'll try and do better. That doesn't mean you all, you know, success is not linear. And of course, like if there's a winner, there has to be a loser. But I think that overall, yes, the the strength of the the fact that these teams are playing together more forces federations to either take things seriously or be bullied by their regional rivals or by the fans or by whoever. Right. And that that culture didn't really exist.
00:05:59
Speaker
But, you know, think about how powerful it is. In some ways, it's a huge disadvantage, right? When an island has a population of 50,000, 60,000. Well, the player pool is very small. However, the player pool also is seeing the other people that they're representing. You know, like you never walk into a restaurant a meeting in in Chicago and see. I don't know if i can give your assassination coordinates. i don't know if people know that you're in Chicago. You never walk into a restaurant in whatever Midwestern city you live in.
00:06:22
Speaker
And C, like Christian Pulisic, and you can't be like, dude, that was, why didn't you play the Gold Cup? Like, you never have that interaction. And the same in England or France or whatever. the The few times that go viral is quite bad where it's like, oh, Iguain getting bullied at the club or whatever.
00:06:37
Speaker
Like, I'm not saying it's necessarily a good thing, but it's a motivator that when you go to your job, people are like, hey, man. finish your chances next time. Like, I can't believe we lost 5-0, right? Those are real things that are happening in the Caribbean that didn't happen before because they weren't even playing games or people couldn't watch the games.
00:06:54
Speaker
And just that accessibility, I think, has grown to a place where, yeah, we're going to see this have ramifications in the future. And Amit, we saw that in the Gold Cup with some of the surprising results that we've seen, right? The Gold Cup, it seems, has also become less predictable because of that.
00:07:10
Speaker
Yeah, I just think the all these teams that John has mentioned are are you know more competitive. And just from from my point of view, comparatively across other continental federations, it's to CONCACAF's investment, the bottom has come up faster.
00:07:26
Speaker
um i so i think especially compared to to Africa and Asia. i mean, yeah, we had we had a great success story with Indonesia, but these teams in the in the Gold Cup were more competitive, able to pull off more upsets with organization. And then in qualifying, I think, to your point, didn't get, you know, beaten as bad as we thought. So I think there's real data to back it up. And then obviously the eye test and the just, you know, the stories about the development that, you know, John could speak to as well, like with the coaching and the the coordination and all the resources into it.
00:07:58
Speaker
It's really come a long way fast. right, so let's get back to the task at hand and the teams that we do have left now that we've touched on the greater state of of where CONCACAF's at. And let's start this, John, with ah kind of a 10,000-foot big-picture look at where we stand in World Cup qualifying.
00:08:15
Speaker
Coming into this cycle, I think the general sentiment was that Panama, Costa Rica, and Jamaica were the three favorites. They started qualifying as the highest ranked teams in the FIFA ranking. They were the three teams that were seeded for this group stage draw.
00:08:28
Speaker
Are they still the favorites to make the World Cup outright? Honduras passed Jamaica in the FIFA ranking on the back of a good gold cup, but they got drawn into a group with Costa Rica and Jamaica, who I think many maybe think is the weaker of the three teams, probably got the most favorable of the draws.
00:08:44
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. I mean, I think that, you know, they're to me, they're the still they're still the favorites. They should win their groups. Doesn't always happen. um But I think that when you look at those three teams, there's a reason that they that kind of sustained success and not sporadic, which I would say, like, to even this...
00:09:03
Speaker
You can use the word success. i was going to say Honduras is that sort of sporadic or like sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe. But yeah, I think those are three still the three favorites. ah Jamaica's, and we'll get into Jamaica more, but obviously I think they are the team that, like you're saying, like looks like they could get picked off because of whatever the hell happened this summer.
00:09:27
Speaker
And Amit, for you, is Jamaica the weakest of of these three kind of favorites? Yeah, it just has to be based on what happened this summer. And I think what what we're going to get into, it's going to be really interesting to talk about.
00:09:41
Speaker
The squad is still much, much, I think we're going determine how much better than Curacao, who is a team that is interesting. And I think that's, you know, the big, big storyline in Group B. I think that's going to be what's fun to dissect.
00:09:57
Speaker
So when you look at it a little more granularly, i agree. They're still favorites, but out of the top three, I think Panama and Costa Rica have shown and they've shown a lot more stability.
00:10:09
Speaker
You just can't say what Jamaica did this summer was the sign of a healthy program for a team trying to make a World Cup, even if the talent is still strong. so if you're going to pick someone out of the three that's the weakest, yes. the The chaos is what lends to that.
00:10:21
Speaker
And then, John, behind the battle for the three direct spots the World Cup, we have a very interesting fight for two spots in the Intercontinental Playoff in what I think Amit and I are projecting to be a very competitive Intercontinental Playoff.
00:10:34
Speaker
And I think, looking at this, is it fair to say that pretty much everybody who's lining out here, maybe with the exception of our beloved boys from Bermuda and potentially Nicaragua, has a chance to make...
00:10:46
Speaker
to finish second place in a group, make the Intercontinental playoff on ranking, and then have success once they get there? Yeah, absolutely. I think that it's it's strange that not three go. Yeah. Because you... You just cut someone out.
00:11:01
Speaker
You cut someone out who probably has the hardest group, right? You're punishing a team that may be the better team because they... You know, if Panama runs the table, which we kind of think they might in in Group A...
00:11:14
Speaker
And like Suriname or Guatemala, that's the thing is like you could pick any of those other three teams and say like, oh, it could be El Salvador. It could be Guatemala. It could be Suriname. Like they're all three hanging there. But if Panama just smashes all of them, maybe the group B and group C second place team jump in there. And, you know, those teams are are on the outside looking in. But I do think that when you look at these groups, yeah it feels like anyone could jump up. I do think Bermuda is the exception. Nicaragua, like probably not.
00:11:41
Speaker
But. Yeah, maybe. mean Yeah, I think it's it is very open. I would be surprised to see either of those teams. Yeah, I think Honduras is is a team that's got to be circling this as ah as a really good chance for them, um especially with a tough group.
00:11:57
Speaker
But, you know, I look at Haiti versus Nicaragua and even Honduras, like, I don't think you could totally rule out Nicaragua the way you might with Bermuda. And then, and and certainly, you know, Group I think all those teams um ah might like their chances as well. So I think, as you said, Austin, very competitive.
00:12:13
Speaker
And admit, I'm just licking my lick at my lips about this Intercontinental Playoff. With the amount the number of teams and the type of teams. Where could we be looking at an Intercontinental Playoff with like two mid-tier CONCACAF teams?
00:12:25
Speaker
Bolivia, New Caledonia, just random teams from from Africa. like This is going to be the World Cup After Dark podcast. tenical I'm excited to listen to the the Bolivia analysis because I thought it would be Venezuela slotting in.
00:12:38
Speaker
You think they're good? I'm sorry, I'm distracting. I don't want to spoil the next show, but look. I'll listen. it's it Anyway, the rumors are that it'll be in Mexico too, which I think adds like a little bit of sort of, I don't know, it feels cooler than if it's going to be in Guadalajara, that's cooler than ah than if it's in MetLife.
00:12:56
Speaker
Yes, totally, totally. yeah totally All right, so let's get into breaking down these groups and kind of go in and zoom in here. Let's start with Group A. And John, we'll start with Panama.
00:13:08
Speaker
They've trusted the Thomas Christensen Project for five plus years now. They didn't necessarily see early success. They missed the World Cup in 2022 after they made it 2018.
00:13:17
Speaker
But they were runners-up at the Gold Cup in 2023. They were runners-up in the CONCACAF Nations League in 2025. A B-plus-ish squad ah was dumped out of the 2025 Gold Cup on penalties by Honduras. They had some very key injuries in that competition.
00:13:33
Speaker
Panama are the favorites in this group. I think they have established themselves as the clear fourth best team in CONCACAF. It feels like the whole Christensen project has maybe been building up to this moment.
00:13:46
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. I think this is this is where the faith in Christiansen that everyone, myself included, has been kind of praising as they get to the Nations League Final Four and and final. As they get to a Gold Cup final, you say, man, they're so smart to stick with this guy. But he, very soft-spoken, probably like the calmest CONCACAF manager maybe ever, like he has just been saying...
00:14:07
Speaker
It doesn't matter if we don't get back to the World Cup. You know, this country had the taste, right? Before the expansion in 2018, and then it didn't go well at all, but they were just happy to, they were literally just happy to be there in Russia in 2018. And it was like a magical moment.
00:14:20
Speaker
And now there's expectation. I think the one thing that could sort of crater them and, and, you know I don't know that we've seen it in the past, but I think they've struggled in the past is that now there are expectations.
00:14:32
Speaker
This is a country that was a baseball country that everyone liked Blas Perez and Roman Torres and like all this group. And then they got to the World Cup and it was, hey, that's so fun. We're all singing the same song.
00:14:43
Speaker
But now people think you got to make it to the World Cup. And they're right. You know, the standard has been set high enough for the better part of a decade. to where they should be at the World Cup. This is a team that the roster is talented. Christensen has pushed all these guys to leave Panama to go to a better league.
00:14:59
Speaker
Okay, now you're in the Ecuadorian League. Leave the Ecuadorian League. Go to a better league. Oh, you're in the Slovenian League. Leave the Slovenian League. Go to a better league. So I just think he's constantly pushing these players to get better because there actually is competition Four spots, four starting lineup places.
00:15:13
Speaker
And I do think it's worth sort of underlining like how beat up they were at the Gold Cup. I don't think too many people are looking into it, but like that forward line, it was like, oh, it's going to be Fajardo. Oh, he's hurt. Oh, well, Waterman's here and he's hurt.
00:15:25
Speaker
And then even, you know, and oh, Edgar Giold-Barcelas is the biggest creative engine and he's hurt. like It just seemed that like the attack... kept getting blow after blow after blow after blow. And that was also a Gold Cup. They didn't have Coco Carrasquilla, maybe their most important player.
00:15:39
Speaker
When you talk about a midfield engine, kind of do it all. So now almost all those guys are back healthy. And it looks like a Panama team that should be able to achieve its goal of making the World Cup again.
00:15:51
Speaker
um mean It's an interesting point that John brings up, and it's something that we see so often across federation and across confederations, I should say. It's such a different task being the better team, right? It's a complete different question that's being asked of you when you are the team that should be taking the initiative, that should be taking the game, that has the better players than it is when you are able to play from that underdog role, able to bunker and counter like we see so often.
00:16:17
Speaker
And I think it's an interesting point that John makes that that might be the biggest challenge for Panama here, because I think we're in agreement that they are substantially to significantly better than the teams that they're sharing a group with.
00:16:30
Speaker
I agree. And, you know, I think what's hard is they're still kind of missing Karaskia. And I look at the front line and I'm wondering where the goals are going to come from in this window.
00:16:42
Speaker
But just overall on talent, they they're they're better than those those other three teams. And then i think specifically, they're just going to be very hard to score on. You think about where the goal is coming from for them.
00:16:53
Speaker
Maybe they'll they'll huff and puff a little bit ah to to break down some of these blocks. I have a hard time seeing how some of these other teams are going to score on them ah with their front lines. I think Panama are going to be very solid, very, very well coached. And yeah, I, I think out of the three, they should, they're going to have three tough opponents, so it's not going to be easy, but they are just a head and shoulders above.
00:17:18
Speaker
And I think, John, there's almost a, I don't want to say there's a margin for error, but in order to beat Panama, one of these three challengers is going to have to probably be near perfect to finish in front of Panama over a six-game sample size.
00:17:33
Speaker
Yeah, because I think also, like, they start in Suriname, which is weird and funky. The travel is difficult. But after that, they're home, and they've been really, really good home. I mean, kind of every team is, but I think Panama, you know, you say, oh, a weird and funky Suriname.
00:17:47
Speaker
Panama is humid, and, like, the crowd is good. They're really into it. But it's also, like, they're far from the field, and you feel like you're on this big stage. it's It's an interesting atmosphere. And I think, again, like, the fans...
00:18:00
Speaker
I don't know what the turnouts will be. I don't know what ticket sales have been like, but I think it's a tough place to play. Who's going to beat them at home? it's tough It's really tough to see. Again, if the pressure is such that they fall at Suriname in the opener and suddenly this guy's falling and this guy's hurt, but you know like you can see things you can see ah a way that it spins away.
00:18:21
Speaker
just doesn't seem likely with with how good they've been consistently with how good some of their top players have been. And even sort of like the, you know, talk about like, oh, veteran experience. Like Suriname has not been here before.
00:18:32
Speaker
Sure. You have Anibal Guido, you have Coco, you have even the forward line, which is not impressive. Like these guys have been around forever. Luis Mejia, these guys have been around forever and they know what it takes to qualify for a world cup in a lot of ways.
00:18:45
Speaker
And they know what it feels like when you don't. So I just think that like, this is the best team in the group they should get through. I think to that exact point, like, yes, the ah funky one game result or the pressure mounts could hurt them, but exactly to how veteran the the guys are, you'd you'd you'd back that experience to not let that happen.
00:19:05
Speaker
That's what I would, I would wager. Yeah. And they've shown consistency, which, as John touched on earlier, is not something we've seen from a lot of the CONCACAF challengers, if you will, if you want to kind of bunch all the rest of those teams into the group.
00:19:17
Speaker
They've been the most consistent side in CONCACAF of this group over the past few years. It's sold out. The Guatemala game is already sold out. There you go. Yeah. and i have apher Atmosphere is going to be on the top.
00:19:29
Speaker
right. So the other three teams in this group are a very interesting trio. You've got El Salvador, Guatemala, and Suriname. Guatemala coming off a run to the Gold Cup semifinals. El Salvador got grouped at the Gold Cup, huffed and puffed to get past Puerto Rico in June, have not looked good.
00:19:45
Speaker
Suriname, meanwhile, topped that World Cup qualifying group with El Salvador. gave Costa Rica a game at the Gold Cup. They fell to Mexico on set pieces and then dead rubbered a nil-nil against the Dominican Republic.
00:19:55
Speaker
John, of these three teams, who should we most look out for as a the team that will give Panama trouble, and B, the team that we should be looking at to potentially finish second here and maybe make an intercontinental playoff?
00:20:09
Speaker
I'm looking at Guatemala. I understand the excitement and intrigue around Suriname. I think that they i mean, how can you not, right? They're in a whole different continent. it It's going to be... They've had some consistency, but there are still new players constantly joining up.
00:20:27
Speaker
It's a talented team, but I think that Guatemala... You know you say, like is this the moment for Christensen that everything's been building toward? And the answer is yes, for Panama. But Guatemala has had a very long-term project with Luis Fernando Tena.
00:20:41
Speaker
He's called up a lot of the same players. Some weird things happening right now. there's a lot of controversy about like a micro camp that then players had to leave to go play Copa Centro-Americana. And did Tena approve it?
00:20:55
Speaker
Put that stuff aside. This is a good national team. They had a great run at the Gold Cup. They had a great run at the previous Gold Cup. They've shown they can sort of go toe-to-toe with teams that have more talent than them, and I think that's kind of like what's going to be key.
00:21:08
Speaker
They're also in the Cementos Progreso for this World Cup qualification cycle instead of ah their national stadium, which is going under renovations. I think that actually can be an advantage too, right? Some of the old, less nice stadiums I think are harder to play in for for opponents.
00:21:26
Speaker
Overall, I just think that when you look at, like their center backs are undersized but feisty. Oscar Santis has been unbelievably good when he's played for the national team. He's been good for Antigua as well.
00:21:36
Speaker
You have Rubio Rubin as an option. You have art Archi, Orchiamidis. You have Olga Rescobar. These guys are young. These guys are unproven. Not Rubin, but the the latter two U.S.-based guys.
00:21:48
Speaker
It just seems to me that this team is kind of complete enough to ah hang, to contend, and to to secure that second place.
00:21:58
Speaker
I agree completely. And ah we're going to, we'll ask you about Suriname next. And I think the, it's a big, big battle. And Suriname certainly impressed me at the gold cup, even though they didn't really win.
00:22:08
Speaker
um um But I think they can hang in the game. But when it comes down to this type of format and just big games, like that's, that's what this is.
00:22:19
Speaker
Rabin's the best player out of the the next three teams. And I think it's not really that close. um He can, he's a match winner at the, at the spot in the field where you, you need someone to go do that.
00:22:30
Speaker
We saw that in the gold cup. I don't think Guatemala are are particularly like physically impressive versus Suriname can, can really run a little bit. um I'm not, I'm not saying that they're,
00:22:42
Speaker
um you know, faster or any of that, but like, you know, they got legs and Guatemala's back line, as you said, a little small. So I think that's something that's, they're going to be tested. Teams are going to play mucky physical soccer and really ask them to to do that. But, you know, they,
00:22:56
Speaker
Both Flukie and not Flukie, they're running the Gold Cup. I think, in a sense, for a team like that to get there, like that that just takes some luck. But it it shows you how well-organized, disciplined they are, and that in a high-stakes game, the attention to detail is there.
00:23:10
Speaker
And I think they have a very no-nonsense game plan for generating chances. um Also, Aaron Herrera is another just just solid MLS player. He's not at a super important position, but at this level, right, he's actually a really great chance creator. So they they've got just kind of two players on the field that are better than everyone else. And I think specifically when it comes to Suriname, that's going to help them.
00:23:32
Speaker
Um, I, You know, i think if they get to an intercontinental playoff, it's going be really, really fascinating as well for them. So I'm not saying i think the goal for them will be to try to to to to get out of this group, but they're a good team. They're a good team. And Suriname is close. So we'll we'll see how you how you feel about them and maybe not quite as impressed.
00:23:53
Speaker
Yeah, you touched on Suriname a bit there, John. What should we make of them? they They've always kind of been a a wild card in that they're one of these CONCACAF teams that has access to a lot. Like, they're one of those teams that you see the Instagram 11, right? That always floats around like, oh, if Suriname could get all the guys who could theoretically suit up for Suriname, imagine how good they'd be.
00:24:12
Speaker
Where is Suriname at in that sort of process and and what should we expect from here? There's more players joining up, like good players. Jean-Paul Buitias came in through the Gold Cup, a nice guy who survived cancer, and like it was great to see him back. and like there's There's a lot to root for. There's a lot to like in Suriname.
00:24:32
Speaker
I think the the list comes out today, but I think Geraldo Becker will be back on it after missing the Gold Cup because of injury. He's so key. A very good player who can finish goals. they They missed that. They really missed that at the Gold Cup, even though they had...
00:24:45
Speaker
Other forwards who have scored in decent leagues before, but look, like they absolutely could finish second in the group. They absolutely could could kind of foul things up for Panama.
00:24:56
Speaker
I feel... And I like the manager, Stanley Menzel. like I like Stanley. I think he's smart. Ajax legend, knows the game well, fits in well with what they're doing as far as attracting Netherlands-based players. I think he has fair a fair bit of name.
00:25:10
Speaker
think he's quite important to... specifically black Dutch players, having been one of the first black Dutch stars. Sorry, not me, but he endured a lot of racism at Ajax.
00:25:21
Speaker
So like the chance to play for him is very attractive to a lot of players. Like the recruiting is good. a lot of those guys who are on the 11, I mean, who are still playing, like they're not, you know, Seedorf is not coming through that door. if he is, it's not going to go well. But like, you know, i just think that, that,
00:25:37
Speaker
they have They need more time, I think, to coalesce. I think when they play as a team, they still look a lot like a collection of good and individuals. A lot of that is time together. And while the Gold Cup helps with that, I don't think it was a good enough Gold c Cup, especially because the absence of a guy like Becker and other key players.
00:25:56
Speaker
I don't think it was a good enough Gold Cup to where you say they're going to hit the ground running. And they need to because there's not a lot of margin for error. I think you brought up a few really great points of there in that technically some of these players are better than a lot of other CONCACAF players.
00:26:12
Speaker
The way they play, they like to play with the ball. They really good possession. type style, again, not perfect, but what's hard is to bring that style into CONCACAF qualifying ah and some of the fields you see against some of the atmospheres, the teams, the physical challenges.
00:26:29
Speaker
And I think also exactly to your point, the collection being more than the the individual talent on the field is real for a team specifically specifically like Guatemala versus them.
00:26:40
Speaker
They, the chemistry isn't quite there. And definitely on the front line, they couldn't, when they, when they, created good chances from good creative things. They didn't finish them. And I think some of that timing service in the front line, reading those runs is a little off.
00:26:54
Speaker
And the other thing specifically i noticed with them, specifically the gold cup is they weren't as deep. They get to the 67th minute and the legs would, would kind of go a little bit. um And again, you you talk about the front 11, the top level talent. It's great.
00:27:07
Speaker
um So there's a lot more question marks for, can this work this cycle? And I just, I think to the whole point you started with the other two teams here, right? The projects have been in place for a while. The pressure, the expectations are in place.
00:27:20
Speaker
It's going to be an uphill battle, despite I think they'll impress with certainly some some nice passages of play. John, we haven't really touched on El Salvador. Are they the clear fourth team in this group? It has not been a very good run of results for them.
00:27:35
Speaker
No, I think they're bad. I'm sorry. I don't like to, you know, i i respect every team. I could be totally wrong. Bolillo is fun. But I think when you look at this El Salvador team, the fact that like Nathan Ordaz, who is a good player and a bright prospect, has basically become their best player in like six months should be a concern.
00:27:56
Speaker
Like the fact that, and even like Bolillo shows up and the press is kind of asking him, you know, like, oh, well, um, what ah foreign-based players you going to call in? And he's like, what are you talking about?
00:28:07
Speaker
Like, who do we got? and And they have, like, they're not, it's not not for lack of trying. Like, Hugo Alvarado, the scout based in Los Angeles who's been finding Salvadoran players, eligible players for years, is working hard and finding guys who are eligible. But you look at the players who are based abroad, which isn't the only metric, right? We know that. You can have a domestic squad and have success.
00:28:27
Speaker
But when you look at the Salvadoran league, the quality of it, the players that are coming out of there, it seems like it seems to me that it's quite important for players to be based abroad. When Hugo Perez had his success, a lot of it was with guys who are in MLS, who he pushed to go to the USL Championship.
00:28:44
Speaker
That's a higher level, I think, than the Salvadoran League right now. You got Ordaz, you got Brian Hill, who's playing in Russia. You got a couple guys in MLS, but like not like regulars, except for Ordaz.
00:28:58
Speaker
And after that, you're you're just looking at like an all-star team of Alianza, Aguila, and Firpo. And I just don't think it's going to be good enough. Bolillo has his style, the grit, the frustrate, the survive and advance.
00:29:14
Speaker
I just don't think this team is good enough to survive. Yeah, and and all that's good. And then you go go down and guess what? You got to go play now. and and and and And that's the biggest difficulty with that sort of strategy is is is the margin error is just really, really small. All right, let's pivot on to Group B where, John, we're guaranteed our first Caribbean World Cup participant since Trinidad and Tobago in 2006. That is what the draw has spat out for us.
00:29:39
Speaker
We talked about Jamaica. Let's dig in on the team that we see as the favorites in Group B. They're looking for their first World Cup appearance since 1998. The Heimar Helgimson era is over. It's been Steve McLaren time since 2024. What do we make of the early returns of the Steve McLaren era, John?
00:29:58
Speaker
I think it's been disappointing. I think that it's lacked sort of what you expect from a guy with Steve McLaren's experience. To me, it seemed like, you know...
00:30:10
Speaker
McLaren shows up. He's got a great history. He knows a lot of players who are eligible for Jamaica and England. You think he's going to be kind of this master recruiter, which Jamaica's always needed, but also someone who can elevate the the kind of tactical level. I think like Tapa Whitmore was the Jamaica coach for so long, and they had an idea, right, that you could see it. It wasn't necessarily the best idea, or it didn't always work, but like that's soccer.
00:30:36
Speaker
With McLaren, I think you've seen... I think like mess is too strong, right? that's That's not the right term, but I would say disorganization. Like you've seen a team that doesn't totally look like they understand what's happening.
00:30:51
Speaker
And Jamaica historically, like that's been the story is like, if everyone is singing from the same hymn sheet, it works. And if not, it can go very wrong and often does. Like, it's kind of crazy how long I feel like I've been having conversations like this on podcasts like this.
00:31:08
Speaker
I mean, not that I do other podcasts, guys. But, you know, like, and and it's just, this I'm saying the same things. And I'm thinking back to like, oh, when were they all singing on the same hymn sheet? When did they have a lot of time together I'm thinking of 2015.
00:31:19
Speaker
Like, they played the Copa America. It was fine. They had a really good gold cup. That was a decade ago. That was 10 years ago. and And it feels like we're just in the same moment still despite – and I think Hogramson felt like he was breaking out of that. and um And McLaren, in a lot of ways, feels like a regression to the mean, and that's not good because you have this guy who's got this experience. He coached England. He like this legitimately coached England.
00:31:45
Speaker
And it just doesn't seem like it's getting better. So they've got a lot to prove. they you know They have the favorite tag like we talked about. but And the path is there.
00:31:56
Speaker
They got to go down the path and it's not a guarantee that they're going to. Amit, you ready for me to ask John the the most famous Jamaica question? The question that always gets asked with Jamaica? All right, John, who's showing up?
00:32:07
Speaker
Because that so often seems to be the biggest issue for Jamaica is to get everybody to sing on the same hymn sheet, they have to go into the church first, right? So who's coming to Jamaica? Who's showing up? Well, they released the squad is dropping as we speak. There's going to be a i might even be able to get it to us before the end of the show. But wow, what a tease.
00:32:27
Speaker
But, you know, they released a watch list and like there's some new names. There's some like very good players who who haven't shown up yet who are apparently in for for World Cup qualification.
00:32:42
Speaker
And there's like some familiar guys too, right? Leon Bailey's on there. Mikel Antonio. Andre Blake. Andre Blake. Although he's kind of hurt. Like he's kind of, you know, we'll see. i think he'll probably end up being there.
00:32:54
Speaker
um But yeah, I mean, that's the question, right? Like, and I think like Gold Cup too was an example of you thought that ah with Isaac Hayden was going to be on there. You thought that couple other guys were going to be on there and then, oh, this guy's sick and this guy didn't make it and this guy's got a knock. And yeah, like, but the thing is this, right?
00:33:17
Speaker
If you can't get your guys to show for the six most important games in your national team's history in ah like this century. Sure. Then are you doing?
00:33:30
Speaker
And Amit, do you think it maybe is an easier, at right? This is three international windows. That's all World Cup qualification is boiling down to at this point. And then obviously maybe March with an Intercontinental playoff and and the World Cup itself. I don't think it's going to be difficult to ask guys to show up for the World Cup itself.
00:33:45
Speaker
You're asking guys to make a three window commitment here, right? Show up for me in September, October, November, and we can make the World Cup and we can do something historic. That pitch has to work, right?
00:33:55
Speaker
They really need it to work. I think so. i i think explained really well why this is all... and Mess isn't the right word, but there's just a lot of issues happening that need to be sorted out.
00:34:08
Speaker
But I do think that it's just set up well that they can kind of tell themselves they're going to flip a switch and just be as professional as they can be about it with the the star players that they have that, again, no one else in this group has.
00:34:24
Speaker
um And I think also... You know, we' we're seeing with Andre Blake's injury-ish what's going on there. But I think they've just got a style and the in the players at the positions where they kind of don't need to have a lot of great ideas, right? They can just kind of say,
00:34:42
Speaker
Go out, be solid, kick the ball up top to our forwards, be solid in defense. If someone gets through in a big chance, like just save just save one or two of those for us.
00:34:53
Speaker
right At a few key positions, and then you you kind of just, not sleepwalk, but like go through the motions enough professionally with the with the squad that cares. right And you could kind of throw the last few years at the window. And it sounds easy, right? Those words sound easy for me to say. It's it's a lot harder in theory.
00:35:12
Speaker
But I think mentally, like... To your point, Austin, as well, like, it's just three windows. You just need to, in air quotes, I'm going we just need to lock in, boys. Like, it's not that hard for Jamaica to talk themselves into that being the mindset.
00:35:25
Speaker
And then you have a chance to do historic things, right? So I think a lot of these weird issues get solved. um Do I think yeah they're going to be, like... more than their some of their parts are they egg no like and i think it's going to be particularly inspiring no um but i think like you just have to put in some hard shifts be hard to score against uh and that should be enough to to do this group they're going to get a great push right i think curacao is really gonna test them but the talent's the talent right and
00:35:59
Speaker
Don't do anything dumb. I don't know. Like, don't get red cards, right? Like, you know, don't lose your head. those things Those things can happen. But I just think the on the last point of them, right, is that physically, specifically in defense, they they can...
00:36:16
Speaker
clean up their box really well and they can attack with less and just kind of they should be putting up zeros for a lot of these games and just you need to scrape two or three you know one goal wins beat you know Bermuda and Trinidad and Tobago quite comfortably right what am I what are we missing here It's Curacao, right? That is the big wildcard here, John. That is, I think, the team that we look at and say, there's the ingredients here to push Jamaica. There's been a, I don't know if it's fair to call it necessarily a long-term project, but the form has been there for Curacao in recent times. In June, we saw them absolutely smash Haiti 5-1 in a very weird World Cup qualifying result that didn't mean anything, but also kind of did because everybody played.
00:37:03
Speaker
They had a a gold cup where they were maybe less impressive, but put in some decent enough performances. Maybe you could you could say they got a tough draw. They suffered some late late bounces. But Curacao are probably going to get on the plane and show up for these games and say, we've got a really good opportunity here when you look at the team who is in the top of this group and you look at the team two teams behind us in this group, right?
00:37:27
Speaker
Yeah, definitely. I think that they sort of are kind of like a recurring ah role player, like ah making cameos in the show, like also featuring Curacao, like because they've just been in this role for a long time.
00:37:40
Speaker
But I think there's new energy behind it. you know They tried the, hey, let's hire a famous Dutch manager to come over here and enjoy his vacations. And it didn't work in Goose Hitting.
00:37:51
Speaker
But now they have Dick Advokat and it has worked. Sure. and And I think that you know overall they had a good Gold Cup. That qualification result was such an eye opener. And now you're getting some of the guys who they've kind of long desired.
00:38:03
Speaker
Tee-Chong name you know is the bigger one, but like there's some other guys too that they've recruited who play in either the Netherlands or Belgium or Turkey or you know lower division and in England who are like good players who they've always wanted.
00:38:17
Speaker
Now, is this the time you want to be adding those players? Maybe not, right? In theory, you'd like to have something already established, but I do think they have enough of a core with the Bakuna brothers, with you like room at the back,
00:38:32
Speaker
ah even like another guy that they always wanted to have join up and then didn't and Jurgen Lukaida, like who has now been in the mix for quite some time. Like you have guys who know what it means to play for Curacao, who understand the idea and I think can help those guys integrate. So,
00:38:49
Speaker
The talent plus the draw plus their recent success definitely put some heat on Curacao. You think, hey, man, these guys might have it, right? and And if they made it, what a story it would be because it's a very, very small country. I mean, they were playing as the Netherlands Antilles until I think 2010 when sort of a constitutional change meant that it was Curacao and Bonaire and, you know, a very young country – represented by these guys who some have been on the island but some haven't and it's just an interesting mix an interesting story
00:39:22
Speaker
Sometimes I worry that like it's easy to get excited about them because of the story. And then you start looking. And again, like we do this talent comparison where it's like, all right, well, Jamaica's starting winger is Leon Bailey, who plays, you know, for Roma.
00:39:35
Speaker
And Curacao's starting winger is in the Turkish league or whatever. Right. Like, and that's, again, no disrespect those guys, not saying that they can't win the game. It's just that on paper, it's easy just kind of get carried away and say, oh my gosh, these guys have some juice. And then start to look it and you're like, well, maybe not.
00:39:52
Speaker
But they've had results. They have some players. They got a great manager who seems committed. this And look, like the whole everything we're talking about, all these teams, this is the year, right?
00:40:03
Speaker
No U.S., Mexico, Canada to kind of stand in the way. Expanded field. The tournament's right here at home. And now, he like you're saying, like hey, September, rock October, remember, not that these guys aren't committed already, but there are some new faces that I think will be there for all three windows. and It could lead to some very interesting results.
00:40:19
Speaker
Momentum could play a big role here a bit, right? We we talk about the September, October, November window is always huge because it is as close as you get to kind of, you can build a little bit as a national team outside of a major tournament where you have actual time together. And so you string together a positive result in window one, you back it up at window two. And before you know it, in window three, you're playing for a spot in the World Cup, right?
00:40:42
Speaker
That could play a huge role here for a team like Coroceau. hundred percent And I think, talk about a team with with pressure. I mean, i know I know there's a lot on the the favorites, but I think there's almost more right on them to because Jamaica is in disarray that you could say this is as good, and to the ah whole cycle with the the situation, this is as good of a chance, right, as you're going to have. So I do think there's a lot of pressure on them to to do it. And i just, you know...
00:41:11
Speaker
Everything is kind of coalesced into a about as good as it's going to get. For me, it's just, let's, let's see how they look, right? I can tell you, not I can tell you, but I'm going to have a better idea after, you know, even one game, like, are how up for they are this.
00:41:26
Speaker
um And certainly I think, How up for this are they? now How up for this are, how up for they are this really nice. Yeah. um At the end of the day, like I just, I want to see them play Jamaica. I want to see exactly how far they could push them. I mean, we can talk about it. I i think we have, I think the talent is close, not quite there, but close.
00:41:45
Speaker
There are good players. They're, they're well managed. They, they're all bought in. It is a great story at the end of the day. Right. I, you're still going to favor them where we could get some odds. I don't really care about the odds. um they're not gonna They're not favored. like But let's see. you got This is why this is why we we we do this whole thing.
00:42:03
Speaker
Got to roll them out on on the the field and see what happens. and They certainly can do it. It really speaks to Dutch football academies. If like the Netherlands, Indonesia, and either Kurosawa or Suriname qualifies or even are in the playoff, it's like, hey, hats off, Jurgen Kruijf.
00:42:22
Speaker
Jurgen Kruijf? What the fuck? Jesus Christ, man. Not in my region. It's close enough. He was the Chivas advisor for a minute, but other you know like why why should I know the greats at the game?
00:42:33
Speaker
He's the kind guy I've got. So, John, the first gate for Curacao is an away trip against the Trinidad and Tobago. I think that's going to be a very interesting measuring stick. The other two teams this group, TNT and Bermuda, are It's probably a bit unfair to Trinidad and Tobago to bunch them in with Bermuda here, but I also don't think you can really bunch them in with Curacao based on what we've seen over the past few.
00:42:54
Speaker
So is it as simple for Trinidad and Tobago that as Levi Garcia goes, Trinidad and Tobago goes? Maybe so. And when he goes to his wedding, they're not going to beat the United States in the Gold Cup, right? I mean, there was yeah he he got married. They lost 5-0 in the other two games. They were okay, not great.
00:43:14
Speaker
and Dante Seeley, like representing the country of his father, ah country his father off also represented as like cool and good. They need him. They need other offensive recruits, attacking recruits.
00:43:25
Speaker
Yeah, I think overall this is a team that just like it slipped a lot. It's really slipped a lot. And you got Dwight York, the legend of the team, kind of trying to rescue things.
00:43:36
Speaker
But... He can't go late. I mean, he could, but like I don't think he's good enough to go lace him up and and and be out there himself. And the player pool has just really been allowed to dry up.
00:43:47
Speaker
There hasn't been development. The league restarted kind of recently, and like Kevin Molino is playing really well in the league. But like how good is the league? We don't really know. And it took them so long to restart after COVID. It started, like again, like last year, 2024. I might be a little off on my dates.
00:44:02
Speaker
But like, it just took so long to kind of get soccer going again after the pandemic that I just think that partly because of that, but more because of the lack of youth development, they're just real far behind.
00:44:13
Speaker
and And they've had federation issues as well, right? In the past few years. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think they're kind of starting to come out of that. Like, I think the the normalization committee and all that stuff is finally behind them. But yeah, that's ah that's obviously going to affect, you you're seeing the effect of a lot of apathy, right?
00:44:31
Speaker
And, you know, like, The strike squad was good enough to where it didn't matter what Jack Warner was doing. It's a new era. can't You kind of need things to actually be working.
00:44:43
Speaker
Speaking of things working, John, let's talk about Bermuda. Making it this far, you touched on it. It's a big deal for them. It's a massive accomplishment. and This is as far as they've gotten. They've only made one Gold Cup in their history. They haven't made it this far in World Cup qualification since 1994.
00:44:56
Speaker
Different format and all of that. They are also, John, probably the one team who entered this cycle with no realistic hopes of advancing to at least the Intercontinental Playoff. But you you teased us the conversation with the manager earlier. I imagine that's not what he said.
00:45:12
Speaker
Yeah, yes and no. I think that Michael's Canadian. He's been around for a long time. He knows CONCACAF really well. I think it's realistic about where the team is, where the hopes are.
00:45:25
Speaker
And again, like it's it is more complicated than this, but you start to do the club comparison thing and it's just like English 7th Division versus 1st Division in other leagues. you know Some of these guys who are getting called up are playing functionally like Sunday League.
00:45:40
Speaker
But like... A higher level than like what, you know, they're fine. They're good players. But yeah, it's it's going to be tough. It's going to be really difficult. You have what I think is important of about Bermuda is that they're here.
00:45:52
Speaker
They're playing these games. And. I think that you know they had these kind of familiar faces to like sickos where it's like, oh, Dale Lee is in goal. Of course he is. Dante Leverrock, the massive center back who like also does physical training. And you can tell just a huge mountain of a man who is in amazing shape.
00:46:11
Speaker
Reggie Lambs, Ike Lewis, Naki Wells. like you you you know You get to know all these guys. It's the same guys as always. There is a new generation coming. They're starting to see the field. And to me, that's important because i think it'd be relative, not easy. It's still worth something, but like it it'd be relatively simple to say, oh we've got this generation. We're going to ride these guys to the end.
00:46:30
Speaker
They're going to turn 35. They're going to phase out and then we'll never see Bermuda again. But the idea is... to get these 20, 21, 22, 23 year olds who are playing in these small european england English leagues or playing domestically or just come out of the US college system, get them integrated and playing at the high level. And then I think you see Bermuda become a consistent presence, ah which, you know, I do think like if they get a result in this qualification cycle, I would mark it down as a success. I don't know that Michael Finley would, but I would mark it down as a success.
00:47:07
Speaker
Someone had to come out of that group. They're clearly the smallest nation. They're by far the smallest nation. It's still left even smaller than the Curacao by like orders of magnitude. They're the smallest nation in area.
00:47:20
Speaker
I'm not saying, Hey, they're happy to be here, but if they are just happy to be here, that's fine. it It is an accomplishment to make it this far. Their FIFA ranking is low. And yeah, if they pull anything off, good for them.
00:47:32
Speaker
I don't think we'll, I don't think we'll be talking about them in November. I mean, this is what we love on this podcast. is It's Bermuda until we die, right? 100%. Naki Wells just hit me like a sleeper agent, like reactivation code. I had not remembered that name in a long time, but I mean, he's a he's a dudes yeah dude's dude. You named a bunch of others that I'm sure familiar with Bermuda, but that was just, wow, that was incredible to hit to hear that again. So yeah, I think you you touched on it all really really well and accurately. And so...
00:48:02
Speaker
We'll see. I think a result would be awesome. As Austin said, darlings for sure for us. We will be rooting hard for Bermuda to get points. They've got a pink jersey as well. They did it before entered Miami, I think.
00:48:13
Speaker
They kind of embraced the the pink color. And they're asking everyone to wear it ah today, Friday. So hopefully Bermuda is just a wash in pink. ah Like, you know, rallying local support is real.
00:48:27
Speaker
Like that's important in CONCACAF. And they're doing it. So great job. Final group to talk about here is group C. We'll start with the headliners in Costa Rica. Kilo Navas is back.
00:48:38
Speaker
Piojo is in charge. John, I read you those two headlines and my next point kind of maybe doesn't necessarily fit with that. There's kind of a renewed younger Costa Rica squad though, right? Like like you see those headlines, you're like, oh man, this is going bunch of 38 year olds out for one last ride. But that's not what this Costa Rica is. They really kind of phased out that generation after 2022.
00:48:58
Speaker
No, exactly. And even Kaler coming back, I mean, Kaler's Kaler, right? So yeah I understand why Miguel Herrera went to seek him out. I understand why he's the backstop again.
00:49:09
Speaker
Like Patrick Siquiera was a good goalkeeper for them. And I think they have a couple others that are, you know, Kevin Chamorro is the other one where it's like they've got guys in the pipeline who are going to replace Kaler and already had.
00:49:21
Speaker
But you do want Kaeler there. But then you look at the rest of the squad and and yeah, like there's a lot of young guys who are kind of trying to to become fixtures of the national team like a lot of their predecessors.
00:49:32
Speaker
Costa Rica has been waiting for this since 2015, right? Since after the 2014 World Cup, they had a pretty long in the tooth squad at that time. A lot of those guys hung on. mean, Celso Borges still kind of rolling. Brian Ruiz stayed for a really long time.
00:49:46
Speaker
Kaler was obviously part of that. The center backs. But now you look and there is this kind of youth movement where Alonso Martinez is kind of the old man in the room at like 26, killing it for NYCFC.
00:49:58
Speaker
Does well with the national team. I think he partners well with Manfred Ugalde, who's kind of clearly their best, like most talented player. um Sometimes they play together, sometimes they don't. But then the midfield is young as well and has a lot of options.
00:50:10
Speaker
There's some new center backs coming through. They're not as young. I mean, Jalen Mitchell is, who had such an amazing Copa America, hasn't been able to sort of sustain that success, but is still a player that you want at the back. hey that That to me is still kind of their weakness. Like Francisco Calvo is still probably going to start.
00:50:27
Speaker
Don't like that. But, you know, as as you sort of start to see some of these younger guys come through and push these older guys, take their places, that's why all of a sudden you have enthusiasm and believe that Costa Rica can be the favorite in this group, can qualify without too much hassle because of these young players that they've been looking for and looking for and looking for. And finally, it seems like they're at the level they need to be to qualify for a World Cup.
00:50:52
Speaker
I'm it Costa Rica have cruised through world cup qualifying, maybe a bit of bad luck at the gold cup. They played the U S pretty much, you know, head to head and then lost and on, on penalties in that match.
00:51:04
Speaker
But did they get the hardest draw of the favorites for you here with Honduras and Haiti also in this group? ah I think the not Panama's better than them. And I think the teams are a little, a little tougher specifically.
00:51:19
Speaker
um But, Yeah, we'll see. Honduras could push them. I agree on all the points John said about Costa Rica. This is just a really nice project coming together. They're still veterans that they can lean on.
00:51:30
Speaker
um ah There's a lot of MLS guys, and I mean that complimentary, like guys that have used that pathway in a really good way for development. This is just solid. I think they also have players at all three levels, four levels, um that can you know come up in big moments.
00:51:48
Speaker
i I don't rate Honduras that that much. So that's why I kind of um say no. i don't think it's the toughest group. um Honestly, i would I think Costa Rica will have it easier than Panama, but but even if Panama is a slightly better team.
00:52:04
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know. We'll see. I'm i'm excited for for Costa Rica to prove that it's all come together really well for them. And, you know, you know you never you never know where the surprise could be. you You can't write off and say, Costa Rica going to sail through.
00:52:20
Speaker
Things could go wrong, right? They still, like Francisco Calvo, in my head, I was like, at this level, he'll probably be just fine. Like no one's going to trouble him. But also like John said, not great, right? Like, so ah you don't know exactly that it's all going to go well, but I like the veterans that are still here. I like the young players coming through.
00:52:38
Speaker
I think everything is really nice. It's all set up well and rosy. ah It should be okay. John, Honduras and Haiti, the two challengers in this group, I think six months ago, if I would have posed this question to you, you know, who is going to challenge Costa Rica more, I think you would have probably pretty easily said that it would have been Haiti.
00:52:57
Speaker
But in the last six months, the results for those two teams have kind of gone in in opposite directions. Honduras were Gold Cup semifinalists. They got there by bouncing back from a 6-0 loss to Canada to open the group stage. Haiti themselves had a poor Gold Cup. We talked about that 5-1 loss Curacao in World Cup qualifying, but they had been on a ah very long winning streak ahead of that, admittedly against pretty poor opposition.
00:53:18
Speaker
What do we make of the two challengers here, the two primary challenges, I should say, to Costa Rica in this group? Well, I think it's worth... You're totally right about the momentum swing on Duras' very good Gold Cup after a very bad start.
00:53:33
Speaker
i I understand where I'm coming from and agree that like I'm still not totally bought in on Honduras. I think that you know the player pool, kind of in the same vein as El Salvador, is just seems a lot shallower than it has in the past.
00:53:46
Speaker
I still don't know who exactly is going to score goals. I know they think like, oh, Chaco Lozano, oh, Kyoto, El Romantico. like These guys have not been consistent for the national team for a very long time.
00:53:57
Speaker
But Haiti has so many issues, right? Right. As a country, as a place, they're going to be playing all their games we learned recently in Curaçao, which it's good that they have a consistent home where they can feel like this is our base, but there's not going to be a home. You know, when when you look at the home field advantage that a team like Honduras is going to have, that teams like Guatemala and Nicaragua, you know, all the Central American teams, but I think even like Jamaica trying to pack out the national stadium, Bermuda because of the civic pride in this small place.
00:54:27
Speaker
Haiti's not going to have that. And it's going to be tough. It's going be tough to not have that. They've brought in some new recruits, including one who plays in the Premier League. Yes, like really? But overall, I think that, yeah, like the the Gold Cup, the results before that were concerning.
00:54:44
Speaker
The loss to Curacao came out of kind of nowhere, but then they didn't bounce back in the Gold Cup well. They were the much better team in their opener against Saudi Arabia. But they couldn't finish. And, like, that hasn't really been a problem for this team. Like, Dukun's now zone regularly top scorer of competitions and, you know, Frenzetti Perio and Perio and all these other guys who are, like, kind of like just seems like they can cycle through these dudes who score and all sudden, oh, they're on the back of the net.
00:55:11
Speaker
And I think that's ah that's a big concern, you know. I think... The momentum is definitely shifted. Playing away from home is going to make things tough. I think that Haiti still has like a really talented squad. Again, talk about story that's easy to get seduced by. Man, if Haiti's women's making team making the World Cup a couple of years ago was so special, if their men's team could do the same as the country, unfortunately.
00:55:34
Speaker
continues to get worse and is is just in a really difficult situation. Most of the guys are not based on the country, although yesterday, the whatever Haitian government is still kind of running things committed hundreds of thousands of dollars to the men's and women's senior national teams in the U-17.
00:55:50
Speaker
I don't know how that's going to work, but like, it seems like they're trying to still have energy. This is a country that loves soccer. This would be um you know, if they make the men's world cup, it would just be such a amazing inflection point.
00:56:01
Speaker
Who knows? You know, you talk about like, Oh, did he a drug, but into the civil war and you're like, is that true? And it's like, yeah, like it could have that same power, but I think it's going be really difficult to get the results on the field since they can't play in Haiti.
00:56:14
Speaker
And it just looks like, yeah, they've they've just gotten worse. They've taken a step back. and And I think like the competition stepping up a level, the question was always going to be after that long winning streak against kind of concap Nations League B teams. And like, was were they going to be able to step up and still hang? And the answer looks like it's no.
00:56:32
Speaker
So yeah, all that to say, give the edge to Honduras. It almost feels like, John, it's been so long for Haiti in this sort of situation as a national team, right?
00:56:43
Speaker
You can kind of band together and I don't want to say draw energy from, but you can get past if it's a short term type deal. But the amount of time that Haiti has been in this situation, it surely has to wear down on the players and on the staff and on everything. It's been years now since they've been able to play at home.
00:56:59
Speaker
Yeah, because think about, like, not only have they not been able to play at home, but I think that you could, now they have this, like, curacao venue, but for a long time were in the Dominican Republic. It makes sense. It's a neighboring country. There's a lot of Haitians that live there.
00:57:11
Speaker
politically, some Dominicans support Haiti and like would show up to games. and like And there's been clubs in the Dominican that have invited Haitian clubs and in club competitions to post up there. Hey, come use our facilities.
00:57:23
Speaker
And the fans show up and they support, which is beautiful. But a lot of people also have hatred toward Haitians who are coming across, trying to leave a difficult situation. And and you know so that's become a big political thing.
00:57:34
Speaker
And a lot of Haitian staff members or coaches or players can't couldn't get visas. The US, maybe Miami could be the home. Well, now Haiti's on this list of, we don't let these people get visas.
00:57:47
Speaker
Okay, well, they played at Trinidad and Tobago once. Well, they had trouble getting visas there too. So now they're Curacao. I mean, I think that like not only are they not getting a home game and playing with the home support, it's like they've become sort of this traveling roadshow.
00:57:59
Speaker
And maybe it doesn't really affect the players who live in the US, s Canada, France, where like a lot of the the squad is based. But like... It's still a national team and they're still representing that country and they're still trying to do their best. And yeah, like you're saying, man, the inertia of like getting beat down and beat down and beat down and no support, support, no support. and no support I do think it's sort of, it's something that you have to talk about, even if like the players themselves. And I think the coaching staff kind of say, oh, you know, we know how to deal with challenges. We're proud to fly the flag.
00:58:28
Speaker
It would mean, that's why it would mean so much to make the world cup. I just think it's a big, a big, big Yeah. in a group that I know Amit thinks it's easy, but I think it's the toughest one. Well, I think it's a tough group for Haiti, right? I'm just like, I caught a stray here. I didn't say it was a... No, no, no, no. I think both Honduras and Haiti are better squads than, you know, maybe I ah appreciated.
00:58:51
Speaker
They're good players in both teams that kind of to, this you know, they're not going to be easy games for Costa Rica. And certainly Costa Rica is not great either. So I think they're all going to be tough games.
00:59:03
Speaker
The thing with Haiti is ah remembering from the Gold Cup and just in general, scoring for them is hard. But they have a you know they have a strong midfield. they're you know They're going to be tough to break down. They can generate chances. i i kind of like I kind of like the Haiti squad. And obviously, I'm always going to admit my union bias. Big ah Danley fan.
00:59:22
Speaker
ah He's actually a really great two-way midfielder. um the they're gonna um They're going to be in games. And Honduras might be in games too. And I agree with the edge.
00:59:33
Speaker
what What's tough is for Haiti to string together the enough results to get out of this when every game the deck is loaded against them. And for all the different things that you said, and especially no home field advantage.
00:59:46
Speaker
So you're just counting right there like... that's that's a lot to overcome. I just think that's hard to do over and over again. And I certainly think the mentality, you said what they're going to say ah publicly, I agree they're going to say that, I agree they'll fight for that.
00:59:58
Speaker
They need some early momentum to to really build build it and make every game you know a final type atmosphere for them internally when the the atmosphere is not going to be that way externally. It's it's a really, really hard challenge. I do like the squad. I think you you know when when John says you know it's a good squad, it's a good squad. like the The levels here,
01:00:17
Speaker
for what you think of maybe even Haiti four or five, 10 years ago, it's much better. It's, it's going to be tough. um Certainly. I think it is more competitive than I gave it credit for.
01:00:29
Speaker
Let's, let's see if um one of these teams, you know, could, you know, get into an intercontinental playoff as well. And I think Haiti and Honduras should really, really be, you know, pushing every game to to get that to happen. And that is a viable path. That is a totally viable path.
01:00:46
Speaker
This is going to be grimy. It's going to be really desperate.
01:00:55
Speaker
Haiti also the only team here, John, with a Libertadores quarterfinalist in the squad in CONCACAF World Cup qualification with our man Ricardo Ingate at Liga Nikita. Look at you company, man. Nicaragua, John, to close out this segment, what can we expect from them here in World Cup qualifying?
01:01:11
Speaker
I don't know, man.
01:01:14
Speaker
Fantasma Figueroa is still the manager, which is shocking to me. you know Everything that i heard that was being reported in Nicaragua was that they were trying to scrounge together the money to fire the guy.
01:01:25
Speaker
and then couldn't, and then they ended up here. So I don't think the vibes are good, and I think they kind of need to be when you have a pretty difficult group. Nicaragua is kind of the same as they've always been as far as like it's a lot of Real Esteli, a lot of Didi Anjen, and then you know you mix in a guy or two based in Costa Rica, a guy or two based in like a lower division European league.
01:01:48
Speaker
In some ways, maybe you could kind of spin that as a plus. Hey, they all know each other, and you know maybe the vibes are actually better than than John is implying. And maybe they are. But I have trouble sort of seeing them match the level of Haiti and even Honduras.
01:02:04
Speaker
I do think like one thing that I sort of underestimated in the previous round was like they get good fan support at home. Like people seem to turn up to the national stadium. People seem to care. When I was in Nicaragua a year and a half ago,
01:02:20
Speaker
like People show up in Esteli, but like it didn't seem like anyone really cares about soccer. It's a big-time baseball country, and it's a country with a lot of political problems. Actually, the America Cup basketball, I don't know how many people have been showing up, but like that's there right now.
01:02:33
Speaker
It sort of seems like it's all over the map from a sporting perspective, but I do think that that people you know people turn out for the national team. So maybe the games in Nicaragua are a bit more difficult than then I'm sort of...
01:02:44
Speaker
you know Maybe maybe in your in your formula, you have to put a plus 7.5 to the coefficient instead of a plus 0.5. But i still you know I don't expect much from this team. Juan Breda is still there. That's fun.
01:02:55
Speaker
But overall, it just I don't see it I'm ready for Nicaragua to move on from the Figueroa era, but they they're not, I guess. So let's have it.
01:03:08
Speaker
Or they don't have the money to do it. Look, I mean, anytime you can you could you could just put out the collection plates at the first home match, like, hey, you want the manager gone? Right? Put the cash down. Put the cash down. And then we can do it. That's when you know you're you're in a good spot and the World Cup qualifying cycle is going to go well, right?
01:03:23
Speaker
Yeah. You know, the I like the the use of the formula because that's definitely how my brain approaches all these teams. Yeah. Yeah, you know, maybe a little bump for home field advantage, but ah based on the manager situation and all that, not great, not great.
01:03:37
Speaker
I mean, the collection plates to fire the manager probably negates whatever home field bump you're getting there, right? Exactly. I think on the the overall group thing, just my my last thought is, i think on group A, there are ah four slightly more challenging teams overall compared to, I think it's a tough two and three, and then Especially sounds like you're really not rating Nicaragua too much, John. So maybe that's my overall um assessment. But, um you know, yeah anyone can get points here. So that's what that's why this makes it not easy.
01:04:09
Speaker
All right, John, i'm gonna put you on the spot to close out the show. Who's making the World Cup and who's going to the Intercontinental Plout? You had to know the question was coming. I'm going to stick with the chalk. I think Panama, Jamaica, and Costa Rica qualified directly to the World Cup.
01:04:23
Speaker
I think that Guatemala gets an intercontinental playoff place. And I'm really tempted to go with Haiti in Group C, partly because I'm seduced by the story, partly because I don't trust in Honduras.
01:04:36
Speaker
If I were to hedge, I would say whoever wins that first game, it's Haiti, Honduras in Curaçao, Haiti's quote unquote home game. That to me is such a massive, massive opener.
01:04:50
Speaker
yeah and maybe i'll Maybe I'll go. Maybe I'll book a flight. But I just think it's a huge, huge game that'll probably determine what happens for the second place in Group C. And and yeah, oh I'll pick Haiti.
01:05:02
Speaker
I won't hedge. Give me Haiti to make the Intercontinental playoff. What are y'all's back? That game's got a ah ah green highlight oit on the ah master qualification sheet. We know we know't why we know where it's at.
01:05:14
Speaker
Wow. That is
01:05:18
Speaker
for all the information and all the data that you have on CONCACAF, to come out Haiti in Intercontinental Playoff is awesome. So but um that's pretty good. You know what it comes down to at the end of it? It's always the vibes, right? It always comes back to the vibes. always comes back to the vibes.
01:05:33
Speaker
um Yeah, I was, you know, want to just be different, not have the same picks. But certainly I think the top three, out I would go chalk. You know, I'm going to toss in a ah shout for Suriname, make the Intercontinental playoff.
01:05:47
Speaker
Sure. ah And um man, I was we were dunking on Honduras. So I can't but I can't put Curacao in there. And then you go to Haiti. So I don't know. No, you know what?
01:05:59
Speaker
Honduras, why not? ah i mean I don't feel good about that at all. But just to be different, Honduras and Suriname would be my two in and intercontinental playoff picks. I'm taking Panama, Costa Rica, and Curacao to make the World Cup. I don't buy Jamaica. I'm not i'm not buying this. like No, stop. Someone had to.
01:06:19
Speaker
No, I think Curaçao goes directly. Jamaica can make the playoff in second. And then ah we'll take Guatemala in second. I think Guatemala have ah have a good chance to get that. i think the hate I think the Nicaragua picks up points somewhere and that Haiti-Honduras group ends up in a tough spot.
Haiti vs Honduras: Group Dynamics
01:06:36
Speaker
That's the thing is like the group math makes it difficult because I think that like Haiti and Honduras are probably both better teams. but but But like if they, you know, they can cannibalize each other. It's like when the Big 12 doesn't get enough teams in the college football playoff. guys Am I right?
01:06:52
Speaker
Recum tech, baby. There we go. we made this hate This Haiti-Honduras game absolutely cannot end in a draw. It's going to be awesome.
Game Theory in Qualifications
01:07:01
Speaker
Right, and that's the thing. like that's the We talk about this a bit. like That's the game theory of this when you when you get up to it at the end is like, all right, a draw is maybe good for potentially making first at the end, but the second place spots, we're going to a ranking, and there's like there's no similarities between these groups, and so three points are going to be big. and like In a way draw against Nicaragua, like in a vacuum, like, ah it's okay. Yeah.
01:07:27
Speaker
Our, you know, is Curacao going to be drawing a way to review it? Like those are the questions that come down. That's why World Cup qualification is great. That's why when these formats throw all these curveballs that get us thinking it's good stuff.
John Arnold's Content and Platforms
01:07:37
Speaker
We've gone on for over an hour here on this. John, I want to finish this by giving you a chance to to let the people know what you'll be up to here during World Cup qualifying, where they can find you. If they like, look, if they've made it this long in the podcast, they probably like what you like. They're going to be interested in what you have to say. Yeah.
01:07:53
Speaker
No kidding. My newsletter is called Getting CONCACAFed. You can find it by searching getting CONCACAFed. If you put an apostrophe or you spell out C-O-N-C-A-F-F-E-D, that's fine.
01:08:05
Speaker
I think I actually just spelled it wrong, so you'll find it. I don't really Twitter anymore, but I'm on Blue Sky at John Arnold FC, J-O-N Arnold FC. And I'm the same username on TikTok and YouTube where I do a fair amount of like shorts and vertical video talking mostly about Mexican soccer. But I'm trying to like the problem is that when I do something on something obscure in CONCACAF, it either does like 28,000 views in two minutes or like zero views in two days.
01:08:34
Speaker
And it just kind of screws with the the growth. So if you like that, please check it out, follow and then like like when you see me talking about Bermuda on your feed.
Podcast Promotions and Conclusion
01:08:45
Speaker
And if you like what we do here at the World Cup After Art Podcast, you can become one of our Patreons. Patreon.com slash WCAD. Three bucks a month. You get access to exclusive shows.
01:08:55
Speaker
You get access to the much-talked-about, the much-bollyhood World Cup qualification master spreadsheet, which is going to be huge in September. I can tell 122 matches. People are going to be telling you to look places you shouldn't look.
01:09:06
Speaker
Stick to the spreadsheet. We won't put you wrong. You'll end up where you need to be. You'll watch the games you need to watch to get access to that as as well as plenty of other stuff. And you can directly support what we do, which again, if you've made it 70 minutes into a podcast about CONCACAF qualifying with the CONCACAF man himself, you're probably the type of person who's going to want to support what we're doing here. So that's all for us.
01:09:24
Speaker
Be on the lookout for more content. Like I said, we'll have a more general preview on the other Confederations coming later. And we'll also have a Patreon exclusive show on the host country. So be on the lookout for that. For Mitt, for John, I'm Austin. Thanks for listening as always. And we'll see you guys next time.