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WCAD 3-24: September WCQ Preview
75 Plays9 months ago
WCAD is back! Austin and Amit get together to break down the September slate of World Cup Qualifying: Is this the window Brazil *finally* get it together? Can Venezuela stay ahead of the chasing muck? Will someone, anyone impress in the fight for 7th in CONMEBOL? Plus, a preview of the Asian third round, and words on the kickoff of qualifying in Oceania.
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Transcript
Introduction & World Cup 2026 Qualifying Overview
00:00:01
Speaker
Believe it or not, we are one year into World Cup qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. This is the World Cup After Dark podcast back after our hiatus following this summer's major international tournaments. My name is Austin Miller. On the other side of the line is Amit Malik.
Insights from Major Tournaments vs Qualifiers
00:00:19
Speaker
Amit, we're one year into World Cup qualifying. I don't think we've had any sort of big surprises, but we're starting to see trends, right?
00:00:28
Speaker
Totally. I think what's funny is that while we are a World Cup qualifying show, we probably learned the most about these teams at the four major tournaments this year. We had two back at the start of 2024 and then two this summer. I feel like I learned a lot more then than in qualifying, but those lessons are going to start showing up more and more because I feel like we do know a lot about these teams that we talk about in qualifying um from what we saw.
Expectations for Major Teams in 2026
00:00:57
Speaker
I think we definitely learned more about the bigger names, right? Like the teams you expect to be the stars of what's going to happen in the US in 18 months time. Wow. Really? 18 months? Wow. No, longer than that. Like 21 months.
00:01:12
Speaker
But still, not that far away. Anyway, ah it's so it's a soccer show, not a math show. But anyway, I feel like the teams that we expect to be the stars and the stories, we learn about at the major tournaments. But the teams that we expect to play a role and make the tournament, that's obviously what we're doing with with World Cup Qualify. So on today's show, we're gonna be breaking down what's to come in this September window.
September Window Preview: Asia & Oceania
00:01:31
Speaker
We have the first two match days of round three in Asia, which is the round would and in which we will be punching World Cup tickets, so plenty on the line there. Conable qualifiers are back After six matches have been played, Acobo America has been played. And we will also touch on the start of qualification in the Oceanic Confederation. Have you been brushing up on your Oceanic football?
00:01:56
Speaker
No, I've been brushing up on the teams in OCE, I think, Paul. Figured out who's there, what countries and what countries are there. All right, fair enough. That's good. Let's dive right in and let's start a bit today with Con Mobile.
Conmebol Qualifiers: New Managers & Key Matches
00:02:09
Speaker
I think these are two very intriguing matches. They're the first World Cup qualifiers since last November. In the inter interim, we've had a round of friendlies in March.
00:02:19
Speaker
We've had an entire major tournament, obviously, in the Copa America and all the storylines that played out there. And, believe it or not, i admit at the end of this match day, plus the first match of of what's to come in October, we'll be halfway through World Cup qualifying in combo bowl. It's not getting late, but it's certainly not early, especially once these two match days are in the books.
00:02:41
Speaker
Yeah, and I think the themes that we found we've found the most data out of any of the continents in this one ah is that you know Brazil are in the big crisis. We're going to talk about that for sure. But um I think we're starting to to really have a good picture of who's getting those top six spots.
00:02:59
Speaker
yo and I, you know, it may be not going to be like the most exciting finish in terms of like a big team being in trouble, even not a big team, but like any of these teams being in trouble. But I think the race for seven is very, very intriguing. And, you know, the ah one of the favorite teams of this podcast, Venezuela, the the job's not done for them. And that's, I think to me, if I was picking, you know, the second or third storyline, the rest of the way would be can they hang on to that?
00:03:31
Speaker
that top six spot. But um that's kind of my my overarching assessment of where we are, about 50%. Yeah. And i think I think you're exactly right. I think we have teams that we are very comfortable will make the World Cup. We have teams that we are pretty confident will make the World Cup, but have yet to show us that kind of form. We have teams that we think will make the World Cup, but have work to do. And then we have, like you said, that fight for seventh, which is for sure going to involve four teams. Maybe, I mean i don't know, it might not involve four teams, depending how you feel about Peru and Bolivia. It might be two teams. And it could involve more teams should teams higher up in the table start to fall down. The big storylines here as we head into these match days, we've got new managers around the continent, at least since the Copa America.
Altitude Advantage: Bolivia's Strategy
00:04:10
Speaker
We'll start in Bolivia.
00:04:11
Speaker
Oscar Visegas, who is the former Always Ready manager, is taking over at Bolivia. I don't think this will make a big difference. The biggest difference that Bolivia have done, and you're gonna love this, isn't it? You know how we talk about how they always play at altitude in La Paz? We talk about the 13,000 feet. We talk about the Estadio Hernando Siles. You know what Bolivia said heading into this match day? It said La Paz isn't even high enough. We're going higher. We're going to El Alto, which is a suburb of La Paz and literally translate to the heights. And Oscar Visegas' club, Always Ready, play in El Alto. It's a stadium that was just kind of remodeled to make it fitting so that Conable would allow international matches to be played there, always ready, played there in the Libertadores and Sudamericana this year. um They're going from high to even higher. It's probably not gonna make a big difference, but it's just, you wanna know where Bolivia's thoughts are with this World Cup qualification? As high as we can go, that's our only chance to get up the table, right? Yeah, that's pretty fitting. Like, i't I have no notes for that. That's just incredible work all around by Bolivia.
00:05:08
Speaker
ah El Alto is a nice touch. Got to say. Yeah. I mean, it it tells you, you know what you're getting, right? The the name says everything. Ecuador have brought in Sevastia and Becca
Ecuador's New Leadership Post-Copa America
00:05:17
Speaker
Sese. I think this is is an interesting little higher. He lasted a year plus at a club job in Spain. He was always pretty good with his defensive who CSA teams. They won a suit Americano a few years back. His track record everywhere else is is is fairly meh.
00:05:30
Speaker
But I think this is another in a long line of very solid Argentine managers in Conable taking over after maybe you could say Ecuador kind of fell short of expectations at the Copa America. Yeah, I think so. i I'm intrigued to hear like what you you'd say the reaction around you know you're your South American soccer circles or even your own like kind of opinion on this guy. i I think everything was kind of going fine. i didn't i I guess they still have a lot to live up to in 2026. That's not going to just automatically happen. So I don't know. Tell me.
00:06:09
Speaker
Yeah, so first off, on Becca's essay, he's a manager that I've liked for a bit of time here with Ecuador. Not with Ecuador, but with the club's teams. I think he plays a modern, attractive style of football. I think that works well with what Ecuador are gonna look to do here. I thought Felix Sanchez Bass did fine, as you said, as the manager of Ecuador. It also kind of felt like there were some tensions between him and the Federation, between him and the player, and that doesn't generally play out well.
00:06:37
Speaker
I also think that if you're a South American national team going to an Argentine manager is kind of in vogue at this point, right? There's a lot of them floating around the continent. I think this is a B minus B higher, right? Like I think Becca says they can get exactly what he should get out of this Ecuador side. I don't think he's he's costing them a fortune. So I think that's good for the Federation. And I think with bessa in charge with the players that they have, qualifying for the World Cup is well within their reach. And this is a pretty straightforward job, this window, right? You you get to come in, you have an away match against Brazil, anything you get from that match is always going to be good. You have a home match against Peru, you need to get three points. The job is pretty clear for this window.
00:07:20
Speaker
Yeah, ah I agree. And we'll see if that new manager bounce is honestly a good time to try to time it with, you know, the trip to Brazil. Right. You just the guy comes in the dressing room, gets everyone to play for him. You you throw out 120 percent. What else are you going to try to do in that case? And so, yeah, a lot of pressure on the second one for sure. um I'm interested to see, you know, what if how different they look from the last iteration.
00:07:44
Speaker
Again, this is this is a solid team. This is a team that could be in in a round of 16 in a pretty winnable first um game before that at the World Cup should things go well. I mean, they have to get there, but like they've got the talent they've they've got the talent to do it. So let's see what they look like. you know I always thought they, again, I thought that was fine. So I'm i'm not, ah again, you bring in a big guy, maybe it won't look that different. It's just a cosmetic makeover, but I'm interested to hear what he says as well. look you know As far as cosmetics are concerned, Sebastian Becca says he has that. He's got the long hair. He's got the rockstar look. He can bring the leather jacket. So if you're looking for a cosmetic change, they've certainly fulfilled that.
Paraguay's New Approach with Gustavo Alfaro
00:08:27
Speaker
The other new manager I remit is Paraguay bringing in Gustavo Alfaro. If you've watched Paraguay so far in this World Cup qualification cycle and thought, man, this team needs to get a little more exciting. They did not. They leaned in to what they think that they can do.
00:08:42
Speaker
I thought Gustavo Alfaro was fine with Costa Rica. I also don't think this is necessarily an upward switch. I would imagine he's getting paid more. So on that aspect, it certainly is. But I think Costa Rica are favorites to make the World Cup. And I think Paraguay will be lucky to make a World Cup playoff.
00:08:59
Speaker
And look, we know what Gustavo Alfaro is going to do. We know what Paraguay is going to do. This is a match made in heaven. It's going to be ugly. It might not work, but also like at this point in the cycle, what are Paraguay going to do? You can't just throw away what's left in World Cup qualifying. So you lean in, right?
00:09:19
Speaker
I think you described it perfectly. it's yeah It's a move where you're trying to scrap to seventh and every point matters. so You get a guy that's going to do heinous things on a football field to try to claw for every point. and he's it Let's be real, like his biggest competitors here are Peru who are in trouble. and basically Chile, who also brought in a new manager before the Copo America. So like, yeah, you got to match, you got to keep up in this grim arms race for, uh, for seventh. Look, like I agree with you completely. Nothing Costa Rica did with Alfaro was inspiring.
00:10:00
Speaker
Paraguay weren't inspiring no matter what. I don't think there's any manager, the best manager in the world isn't getting a different thing out of this group. Come on, Pep. Come on, Pep. Challenge yourself, buddy. Come on. Yeah, try to do it without the real players. Come to Paraguay, see if we can get into the World Cup. Right. so like look, they're going to be hard to play against the ball. Like they're going to try to get out. Yeah. They're not really going to score. Can they get a point at a time? Those will be good points. That's what he needs.
00:10:32
Speaker
i I like that you said it's a match made in heaven. It doesn't mean it's good. It doesn't mean it's inspiring. But it's what they want to do. So like, yeah, by all means, good job. i ah we'll see if we' We're going to see if it works. Like between this and Chile and you know whatever else for seventh, like we could be saying, wow, this was a big turning point. Or it could be like, it really didn't change anything. But that's kind of what's fun is we don't know. but also they had to try something. Like it was very clear. It can't get worse. Like Paraguay can't play any worse than they were. So bring in somebody who has big, who has experience, who knows how to manage in South America, who knows how to play this style with these players and yeah, you know, go and see what happens. All right, but let's talk about the big storylines for this
Brazil's Qualifying Challenges
00:11:14
Speaker
match day. I think the thing that I am most intrigued about ah is ah the, the no, no,
00:11:21
Speaker
but Trust me, Brazil's fine. This is really the time that Brazil's gonna turn it on. um They have three straight losses in World Cup qualifying, including their first ever home loss. That came to Argentina back in November. They were uninspiring at best at the Copa America. They, of course, had a scoreless draw with Costa Rica. They were out in the quarterfinals to Colombia.
00:11:40
Speaker
They didn't completely melt down, but they had a bad tournament. ah None of this probably matters as far as the the the goal of making the World Cup, which is obviously the the the end route of this World Cup qualification cycle, but also this is Brazil. This is the biggest national, one of the biggest national teams in the world. This is one of the the most historic sites in South America. Simply making the World Cup is not the objective for Brazil, but, but, I mean,
00:12:08
Speaker
If things were going to get sweaty for Brazil, like legitimately really sweaty, this is the window in which I think it would happen. Ecuador at home and Paraguay are away. Those are the type of games they have to stumble in for World Cup qualification to actually get dramatic. Yeah, I'm with you 100% and I think We're on the same page that like despite where they are on points, which is seven two points above Paraguay, a point behind Venezuela, neither of us are seriously entertaining the thought that they won't get through or even in seventh. We just don't see it happening. but
00:12:47
Speaker
If it was gonna happen, yes, it would start with stumbling these games. Again, like I don't think it's gonna happen. I think they're gonna be fine. But i'm what's to me, it's like, I think they're fine, but like I just don't think they're a top five team anymore. or like Are they much closer to 10?
00:13:05
Speaker
like Can they change that calculus back to top five by 2026? That's to me what's interesting. But like yeah, there's there's scenarios where they still just look really bad and struggle and cloth through South American qualifying is sixth.
00:13:21
Speaker
like I don't know. i mean should i be Should we be taking this seriously? that like do we Can we predict even these two? like They're going to be in trouble after that? I just i keep thinking it's going to be fine.
00:13:34
Speaker
Yeah, and and and again, it it kind of harkens back to that point that we mentioned near the start of the show. We're getting close to the halfway point here. And so if you're in trouble at the halfway point, like you're kind of running out of of runway. Brazil had beaten Bolivia and Peru, this World Cup qualification cycle, and they have a home draw against Venezuela. Those are their seven points. like sort the seven Those are seven of the easiest points you can get. They're bad points. I think four points in this window, and they will be fine as far as making the World Cup. If you if you beat Ecuador at home,
00:14:03
Speaker
I don't know, maybe Paraguay does something stupid and you and you draw on it since you own. I don't know, maybe you draw with Ecuador and you beat Paraguay. If they get four points, I think they will continue to kind of limp their way to the World Cup without any real trouble, but anything less than that. And I think that the pressure really ratchets up yet again. And it's the it's the same point we've made on this show. Again, and Brazil hasn't changed. They haven't found anybody new in the last six weeks, right? Like there's just not the type of talent in this team. and You look at the attacking players in this Brazilian side. You've got Vinicius Jr., Rodrigo, and Endric. Three Real Madrid players. All right, that's good. That's fun. And they're joined by Sao Paulo's Lucas Mora, who's 32, Pedro, Palmetto's Estevan, who's 17, and both of them was Luis Enrique. like These are three Real Madrid players with four guys playing in Brazil. and like
00:14:52
Speaker
That's just not the type of level that we've come to expect from them. The midfield, like they're kind of trot out, Luca's pocket top, Bruno and I are nice. Like these are fine players, but they're not Brazil players. And it's it's the same question we've talked about it and over and there's there's no point in digging into all of that. Again, my point simply is that at some point Brazil need to actually qualify for the World Cup. And this is the window in which they can go a long way towards doing that. And then that kind of maybe gives them space to figure all the rest of it out.
00:15:21
Speaker
I think that's a better way, or not that the original way was off, but like that's the way I'm seeing it too, same way. like If they get four points, sorry, like Paraguay and Chile aren't keeping pace with that, literally the rest of the way. So then they're fine. And to me, that's very clearly like, OK, even if you you know Ecuador gives you a tough game, they will give you a tough game, you take a point. All right, there's there's no excuse for Brazil not to get three against Paraguay. It just can't happen, right?
00:15:49
Speaker
Yeah, so so the next four for Brazil, we've got this window where that they host Ecuador, they go to Paraguay. Then in October, they go to Chile and they host Peru. So like those are the four like those are the four games where you you put the gap in between the muck and you say, all right, we're done and we can figure everything else out and we might not be very good and we might have to finish in fifth, but we're gonna easily make the world come. So that's one of my big storylines. Another big storyline here a bit. Intriguing games for the top teams that that aren't actually gonna matter as far as making the World Cup is
Argentina's Transition & Uruguay's Suspensions
00:16:18
Speaker
concerned. ah But with Argentina, we we get a preview of them post-messy. We've already gotten a little bit of a post-messy preview. We get a big post-messy preview for Argentina. Whole match against Chile.
00:16:27
Speaker
away match against Colombia. I think that is going to be great. And then we've got Uruguay. You remember those those dudes who fought at at the Copo America emit? Yeah, they're all suspended, and like like all of them. ah Five guys for Uruguay getting pretty thick suspensions. Darwin Nunez, Rodrigo Beninco, Matias Oliveira, Roald Araujo, and Jose Maria Jimenez. Five absolutely key players for Uruguay are going to miss a big chunk of World Cup qualification.
00:16:53
Speaker
It's not gonna matter, but it should be interesting to see what Marcelo Bielsa kind of pulls out of the hat. And then Colombia, I think the the game on Tuesday is probably the game of the window, just as far as a neutral perspective is concerned. Argentina, Colombia, Copa America final rematch, in sweaty Barranquilla, Noli and Ole Messi, Colombia will definitely have revenge on their mind.
Venezuela's World Cup Prospects
00:17:13
Speaker
That's a fun game that won't matter whatsoever as far as making the World Cup, but is fun because international football is fun.
00:17:20
Speaker
Yeah, agreed completely. um I guess we should be talking about Uruguay. Paraguay is a potential game for Paraguay to steal a point with all these suspicions. I think we've generally given our verdict on Bilsa, and we'd like him. And I think it's more this will be more data for us to see. like Yeah, he's just going to keep doing what he does. I don't know if exactly how the results will go the next window or two. but I think they're set up in a really good spot that like yeah these suspensions and everything that happened reflect poorly, but like it's I'm not worried about anything. I think that they're going to see how they look with the depth of their squad, which is good. And they still have other players that are good. um And then also, you know as as we were talking just before the show, the the Luis Suarez retirement tour. Yep.
00:18:10
Speaker
these two games. And so, you know, Uruguay, Paraguay, that gives you some juice there too. I think this is, everything is a little rosy right now for them. That happened, it was ugly, and it's just like, the project's so inspiring right now. So, I don't know, should we be worried? What would it take for Bielsa Uruguay to kind of take that shine off? It's not gonna be these two games. No, it's not gonna be these two games.
00:18:39
Speaker
eight points clear of seven. Then like, there's no scenario in which power wise outscoring. What do I buy? Eight points down the stretch of, of world cup qualifying. I think it'll just be interesting just to to see more depth players for Uruguay. I think you've got a few more younger players coming through. Paraguay is going to present a challenge. You know, there's there's no doubt about that. I think the away match against Venezuela is very interesting as well because that could potentially be a big game for Venezuela. So they it'll just be fun to watch because Uruguay are generally fun to watch under Marcelo Villalza. So sign me up.
00:19:11
Speaker
ah Speaking of Venezuela, man, that's another one of the big storylines. This, I think, is a huge window for Venezuela because they have kind of two paths to take here. If they have a good window or even just a solid window, they can take path A, which is we're going to stay comfortably ahead of the muck and we're going to challenge Chile, Paraguay, Bolivia, whoever it is, we're going to challenge you to significantly outplay us in the second half of World Cup qualifying to beat us to a direct spot. That's path A.
00:19:38
Speaker
Path B is they have a disappointing window here and they are kind of sliding down the table and they're closer and closer to that muck and the amount that those teams have to outplay Venezuela by grows smaller and smaller. This is a tricky window.
00:19:53
Speaker
Venezuela go to Bolivia. That is never fun for anybody. We mentioned that Bolivia are going as high as they've ever gone to El Alto for this match. It's a must win match for Bolivia. Any hope they have a make of making the playoff, they have to win at home and then a home match against Uruguay. We talked about all those Uruguayan suspensions. I don't know what the number that Venezuela need here is. Like if Venezuela come out of this window with two points, that's probably a positive window.
00:20:20
Speaker
Yeah, I think unless Paraguay or Chile like overperform and they certainly can, you know, nothing as bad as they've been, you know, you can get three points somewhere. So I would say Venezuela need to find three in one of the games, ideally.
00:20:38
Speaker
away at Bolivia, but that's not a, it's really not easy. It doesn't, it's just not that easy. Despite me thinking in my head, well, it doesn't matter. They're the worst team your way or your way. They're the worst team you beat them. It's not like that. So I don't know. I think two on process is fine. Um, and you, we probably just, you punt it away. Let's put some separation later.
00:20:59
Speaker
You're not getting that there. So two is fine. I would love three. ah through Three are feeling really good. I don't know where that's coming from. And maybe Uruguay without these players is is achievable. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't because there's still a better team even with all that. So I don't know. i I'm feeling fine about them too. But yeah I'm not sure that this window is going to make me feel great by the end of it. It could be hard. Maybe they'll come out with four. I don't know.
00:21:28
Speaker
It also, I think, like you touched on this a little bit, it also is gonna depend on what happens below them in the table. So two points for but for Venezuela with Chile and Paraguay and Bolivia, nobody getting more than three, that's a positive window for Bolivia. If your gap is more or less where it is now, they're four points ahead of the playoff. If you leave this window with a game in hand, you know, three point advantage, I think they'll comfortably, they'll they'll feel good about that.
00:21:54
Speaker
Yeah, that's the that's a ah good way of looking at it, too. like They're not in trouble until they're in trouble. And so we'll see. Those teams could certainly put pressure. And ah the other part I meant to to mention on them, just you know talking about them, is I do think like the focus is in now after the Copa was super energizing. And that was already on the back of what we had identified as a very good start to this whole thing for them. And I do think like they're all in now on this being the window. and I think before this entire window, we were like, you can't talk yourselves into Venezuela. They've never done it, you know, we thought they were close. And then they'll always kind of disappoint you. And like, again, this is just vibes here. But like, this is a team that feels like it can seize this this moment. And so I do think that helps them as well versus, you know, they could
00:22:43
Speaker
there's always teams that peter out and like, it it just yeah kind of goes away. It's happened to Venezuela before. Like there were a ton of expectations for Venezuela in past cycles and they haven't been able to live up to it. This is a big, like this six match window that comes thick and fast September, October, and November, right? Like by the time we get to Christmas, we're going to be two thirds of the way through here. And does it, does it, um, I know this is my union bias as well, but yeah you think it helps Jose Martinez for Venezuela that he went back to South America. Do you think that played any like role in that in any of that?
00:23:13
Speaker
I don't know. I mean, like I can't speak to any sort of individual player, but like, right, less travel. Like that's not necessarily a bad thing. Playing the same type of style, like the style that he's playing at Corinthians is the type of style that you face in most South American World Cup qualifiers where you're not facing the elite teams like, yeah, potentially. And look, big Solomon Rondon's in the squad. So like, yeah, yeah anything is possible. the The other thing with their, uh, their focus and whatever you want to say is Sateldo is definitely a player that like,
00:23:43
Speaker
his focus comes and goes. And that's more, where I mean, like he seems locked in for Venezuela. So let's see, let's see these two games. If it's still there, even if they get two points, but look like dialed in, I'll feel okay. If it's a bad two points or one point, and they look like they've lost the focus, then yeah, I'll be concerned for sure.
Conmebol's Seventh Spot Race
00:24:02
Speaker
And let's close the storylines here a bit by delving down into the muck at the bottom of the table. Paraguay on five points currently hold the playoff spot. Chile are on five points. Bolivia are on three and Peru are on two. um I'd love to tell you that someone's gonna start impressing. and and and make a run, but I just don't think that's what's going to happen. I think that this is just going to be an absolute slobber knocker, ugly, horrific fight down the stretch and somebody's going to finish seventh because it's a math equation and it is like literally impossible for one of these teams to not finish seven.
00:24:35
Speaker
Yeah, what what I have here and what you had had highlighted is is that Chile just have to beat Bolivia at home. to have it to It's a must win. And and that's a match that Chile has struggled with. They have drawn Bolivia at home in past World Cup qualification cycles.
00:24:50
Speaker
Yeah, that can't happen. So I think that's a really in terms of watchability for the window. Like, yeah, that's that's it. Chile's World Cup hopes. It's harder to find a bigger match for it. So it will get bigger. But like yeah in this window for sure. I think that one's good. If you believe Bolivia have anything. Yeah, they have to win at home. Like if it's a must win match for Bolivia because you.
00:25:11
Speaker
It's really hard to find a way for them to get to seventh if they don't pick up three points at home against Venezuela. You mentioned Chile. Uh-huh. Prue are in bad shape, because not only are they a bad team, but this is a really bad pair of fixtures for Prue. They are at home against Colombia, away to Ecuador. They're probably still within shouting distance, even if they pick up zero points here. But, like, you don't want to be needing to pick up points in this fight, right? Like, that's a tough place to be for these teams that are just severely limited.
00:25:40
Speaker
agreed and if Chile do beat Bolivia which not guaranteed but you you you'd expect yes they're gonna be in trouble because I it's tough to expect three and either I think you you try to get a point in one of those honestly like it's a you just kind of lick your wounds and move on to the next window it's tough yeah before but like issues the issues You want to hear the next six matches for Peru in this and this kind of sprint run we've got here? Home against Colombia, away Ecuador in September. In October, they host Uruguay and go to Brazil. In November, they host Chile and go to Argentina. Other than the home match against Chile, it's hard to expect anything there. like They're going to have to find points against good teams.
00:26:23
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it's probably damning that they're on to now, given the pictures they've had. So it's bad looks for Peru. That's why I really see it as more of a two horse race for seventh. And that picture that you just kind of said reinforces that. But we'll see. Maybe I can steal something. I don't know. It's not great for them.
00:26:45
Speaker
We've touched on Chile a little bit. Let's close kind of we'll talk with that. We've liked what Ricardo Barreca has done with Chile. I think they're my favorite to finish seventh, especially with the Alfaro news with Paraguay. I just don't think the level is going to be there for Paraguay. But like you said, that whole match against Bolivia, it's hard to expect Chile to get anything away to Argentina. They'll fight, they'll scrap, they'll make a whole scene out of it. It's probably not going to work.
00:27:07
Speaker
But if they can get three points away to Bolivia, if Paraguay have a bad window, they can put themselves into seventh, and then you can almost play a little bit of defense from there, right? And you can just match these teams down the stretch.
00:27:18
Speaker
Yeah, and I think you're trying to push Venezuela until they've run away. And Chile, as much as that was kind of one of the biggest themes of the whole window, the whole cycle was that we thought Venezuela are a little better. There's still time to reverse that, too. So I think I'm with you. I feel much better. Not much, but slightly better about Chile. It's hard to feel good about any of these teams. Yeah, like we're like, oh, we've been impressed by Greco. And I was like, I think he had like two good matches. But like, yeah, no, the fights there, they still should be a little bit better than Parkway on the ballot. So let's so let's see.
00:27:54
Speaker
Yeah, no, Alexis Sanchez, this window for Chile. I think that's obviously a a big storyline. Where do they get the attack? Eduardo Vargas is is in the squad, Ben Branch ideas. Like somebody's going to have to put the ball in the back of the net against Bolivia. I don't think anybody will care who it is or how it's done. But like at the end of the day, that's what this window is going to come down to for Chile. So, so let's see. All right. Anything else on, on kind of before we move on, I think that's a pretty good outlook of what we're expecting here.
00:28:20
Speaker
I agree completely. And I do think just, you know, Almoron is great, but like player for player, even given everything, Chile has ah still even as washed as they are. They're not necessarily all the way washed. They're just a little bit better than Paraguay. And I think everything we've seen kind of enforce that. It might take a little bit to get there.
00:28:42
Speaker
Yep, all right.
Asian Qualifiers Round Three Highlights
00:28:43
Speaker
Let's move on to Asian World Cup qualifying. We're moving on to round three in Asia. We are down to 18 teams. It's gonna be our first chance to see some of the top teams in Asia go up against each other. That's not gonna happen in this window, but it will happen in this stage. Here's the format. We've got 10 games for these teams, three groups of six. You play everybody home in a way, so it's 10 total games. It's a pretty big sample size.
00:29:06
Speaker
In these groups of six, the top two teams will move on to the World Cup. That will be decided next June, so we could have teams as soon as March, clinching World Cup births, depending how the points go. The middle two teams, those teams finishing in three and fourth, third and fourth, will move on to the next stage of World Cup qualifying, which is round four, which is a group stage of three with World Cup spots and playoff spots on the line.
00:29:29
Speaker
And then the bottom two teams in the groups will be going home. And I think the draw, Amit, has actually kind of given us some intrigue, which is not something we've had a ton of in Asia so far, as far as World Cup qualification is concerned. I think we have one fairly straightforward group. We have one group that looks to have an open spot in the World Cup, and we have one group that has three teams that we think will make the World Cup, but only two will make it in this stage. So let's start in group A. I think, Amit, this is the most straightforward of the groups.
00:29:57
Speaker
Qatar and Iran are the Asian kind of class of this group. They're teams with World Cup pedigree. They're teams that going into this qualification cycle, you and I expect it to make to the make the World Cup. They top this group. Uzbekistan and UAE are your very classic tier two Asian teams that we've talked a lot about. Big chance to actually make the World Cup. It probably won't happen in this round. I think Kyrgyzstan and North Korea are a tier below those teams, but maybe there's some noise to be made. This group looks and feels straightforward.
00:30:28
Speaker
Yeah, agree completely um on everything you said. I think um Uzbekistan as a team, we've circled, you've heard us on many podcasts say that could be making a first world cup here. It's probably not going to be this window. I think North, but they do open with North Korea encouraging Stan. So like you can rack up points with the two easiest matches early and and see what happens. But yes, I agree on the the general statement, but this is a big opportunity. This window in particular, I think.
00:30:54
Speaker
And I do think North Korea is is a tricky team to have in the group, not just for silly reasons, more for like they they truly might be better than their pot. Yeah, they have to be. their're po yeah They just are. So um I think that that puts some intrigue. But yeah, in terms of like Qatar and Iran are pretty solidly better than everyone. yeah The other two, as you started with, there's a lot more intrigue in the other two groups. This group is fine. I think there's some interesting matches. But in terms of World Cup qualification,
00:31:22
Speaker
ah You'd kind of expect it to be as stratified as it sounds. Yep, and we won't get any guitar Iran matches in this window. Qatar will host the UAE and head to play North Korea in Laos, which is still a thing that's happening. um And Iran will host Kyrgyzstan and then go to the UAE. You would expect those two favorites to to clean up. and And we mentioned the opportunity Uzbekistan has where they have a window where they don't have to play Qatar or Iran or even the UAE.
00:31:51
Speaker
So a chance to to to farm some points there. All right, group B, Amit.
South Korea's Group B Leadership & Travel Issues
00:31:55
Speaker
South Korea headlined this group. They should make the World Cup, but they will also do it with a lot of frequent flyer miles because they are the only team that is not in the Middle East in this group. They are joined by Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Palestine, and Kuwait.
00:32:08
Speaker
These are going to be taxing windows for these South Korean players, particularly the ones who are based in Europe, who will be going to the Middle East and then to South Korea and then back to Europe or to South Korea and the Middle East and back to Europe. It's going to be a lot of flying, but the amount of talent that South Korea has, I think, puts them kind of a class above this group.
00:32:25
Speaker
Yeah, I agree completely. The travel is really tough, but they are they are just better. the The rest of this group is really fun, though, like ye as you as you kind of as you outlined. these are all Those are like four or five good matches like throughout everyone that like it's even even Palestine, even Kuwait, maybe not Kuwait. No, no, no. No, I don't. I watched that Kuwait India game, not Kuwait.
00:32:51
Speaker
You've got four teams that I think are all pretty close to each other. Yeah, like I think I think Iraq and and Jordan are are definitely a level above of where Oman and Palestine are but they haven't shown it at this sort of stage and the question is You know Iraq or a good team that had a bad Asian Cup Jordan or maybe a not so good team that had a good. a good and come yeah And so let's see what happens there. Oh one in Palestine certainly have what it takes to trouble a team like orur Iraq or Jordan. I think South Korea will probably run this group. Anybody who picks up points against South Korea at any point, those are probably kind of points you find in your back pocket. And I think Kuwait is probably a level below everybody else in this group. Again, I watched Kuwait India. you can't talk me into Kuwait. There's no scenario which you can talk me into Kuwait. But I think the battle for a second here is really interesting. And I yeah also think that there's a interesting battle to make third and fourth, right? Like I think this is- One of those teams isn't going to get it. Yeah. Right. One of those teams will miss out and one of those teams will qualify for the World Cup directly. And that is a huge accomplishment and a huge opportunity.
00:33:52
Speaker
Yes, it's very finely poised in that sense. um i I think Iraq and Jordan is a really interesting battle for a second, as you said. I know maybe this is bias. I wasn't impressed with Iraq um and saw Jordan better. but ah Given everything, I do think Iraq is a better team. right like yeah and I don't know, just on talent. um Maybe this is also biased, but I think Palestine is a little better than Oman, but like what do I know? It could change, and that was a small sample size, and this is this is a lot more. so
00:34:26
Speaker
I don't know. Is that crazy? I think that a difficult thing for Palestine is a hard start. They go to South Korea to start. That's going to be tough. And then they have to play Jordan. Obviously, that they are not going to be playing any home games at any point in this World Cup qualification cycle. That really hurts. And I think a team of Palestine's nature playing from behind in this group needing to pick up points, that's going to make the task a a little bit more difficult for them. But there's intriguing matches, and I think this group will be very interesting to watch develop. Iraq against Oman on Thursday, I think is is an interesting match. I mentioned Palestine Jordan on Tuesday. That's a good match. Iraq will be playing Kuwait, and then Korea will be will be playing Oman. So I think those are kind of the the standout highlight matches from
Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia in Close Contention
00:35:09
Speaker
this group. And as we move to group C emit,
00:35:11
Speaker
This is where things I think are actually intriguing because Japan, Australia, and Saudi Arabia, who are all teams that going into this World Cup qualification cycle, you and I fully expected to make the World Cup, have been drawn into the same group. And that means that one of them is not going to make the World Cup at this stage. That said, it probably won't end up mattering. I think whoever finishes third or fourth or whatever it may be is gonna be favored. But if you're one of these teams, I think you would like to avoid having to go into a weird group of three showdown situation. And so that leads to a lot of intrigue in this group. Yeah, well said. And it's ah you know probably between Australia and Saudi Arabia. you know we do we We both feel pretty good that Japan has a cut above them. But in any of those games, like even with Japan, between the three of them, they there could be some upsets.
00:36:07
Speaker
um I'm not really bullish on any of the bottom three. so Yeah, the bottom three of this group is made up by Bahrain, China, and Indonesia. Indonesia are one of our four friends. We're just proud of them for making it this far. Bahrain and China have done nothing to really impress us so far. Bahrain had a super easy group in the last round.
00:36:24
Speaker
China had a super easy group and still almost didn't go through. So I think this is a three-way fight for a second. And that fight between Bahrain, China, and Indonesia is going to be to advance to the next round. An interesting thing here, Amit, is in excuse me this window in September, no matches between Australia, Japan, or Saudi Arabia. So there is absolutely a chance that at the end of this window, this group is 666000. And so we just stratify it right there from the start. That's it.
00:36:52
Speaker
Yeah, that would be funny. I probably will happen. I don't know about that. But um that'd be that'd be interesting. That'd be fun, like you said. um Yeah, I have a kind of bomb that we don't get one of those games this window. yeah But ah probably one of them will slip up, right? And it's kind of like an our it's a race against each other. like you You can't trip up against the bottom teams.
00:37:10
Speaker
Yeah, you don't want to blow the easy points and then have to make up the hard points later. I don't know that any, like who's going to trip up here? Like, are you really trusting China to take points off Japan or Saudi Arabia? Like you're not trusted Indonesia to do anything. The bottom three are a lot worse.
00:37:27
Speaker
um like Bahrain have to play Australia and Japan. Like I think Saudi Arabia is probably the candidate that is most likely to slip up and they play at home against Indonesia in and away against China. Like, okay, you can baby talk me into a scenario in which China draw Saudi Arabia, but I don't think that's a super likely thing that's going to happen here. I think this group is going to stratify right from the start. Yeah. Yeah. The only thing that I'm like, China, I've just been mad at China. Yeah. A qualification process. So.
00:37:54
Speaker
understood. they've They've let us down before. um The only thing that I can think about that we're maybe potentially missing out on in these Asian games, which we did hit on with Korea, is the super long travel road trips potentially you know trip trump troubling though the better team. or like weakening you know it's just It could be an effect that maybe we're not all the way quantifying, but like other than that, like the The stratification is pretty clear and we've outlined, you know, almost exactly where the positional battles you you should expect. Now, could we look stupid after four matches and there'll be something worth completely missing. But like there's also a large large enough sample size here that like everything kind of yeah shake out. 10 games is a lot like this is a
00:38:38
Speaker
Long group stage and it's gonna take a while and so that gives those better teams room to kind of Find their footing and you can drop a point here drop a point there um Interesting point on the travel thing that you bring up and it it leads me back to that group C that we talked about before So China open a way to Japan, which is obviously geographically close to China and then at home against Saudi Arabia, who will have played at home against Indonesia and then have to travel to China. So like I think the travel is most intriguing when it is a disparity, right? yeah two teams that's my you along When two teams have traveled a long way, you would expect it to be more or less equal.
00:39:15
Speaker
That said, there are differences in these federations, right? Like the travel of Saudi Arabia probably looks a lot different than the travel of Kuwait. Like those are just fundamentally different in the way that those two teams travel. But as far as distance is concerned, I think that's kind of an interesting subplot to to maybe look at. Australia also stay close to home. They play Bahrain at home, and then they only travel to Indonesia. So I don't know. Things to to have in mind as we kind of approach this window.
00:39:40
Speaker
Yeah, that was kind of exactly what I was was looking for. And that's where we'll see if we get surprises. And maybe we will when we talk about this window in retrospect. um Certainly, maybe Saudi Arabia will slip up points to China. But um stay tuned on this group for sure. I think it'll give us some some good matches when we get them.
Oceania Qualifiers Begin
00:39:59
Speaker
All right, let's close out today's show with the Oceanic deep dive you can't get anywhere else and you also can't get here because we're not gonna deep dive into the Cook Islands and and whatnot. um I bet Oceanic Qualified kicks off this window in September. This is pretty much the worst four teams you could possibly imagine who are going to fight it out for the right to get absolutely smacked in the next round by four team by teams that are also bad but are significantly better than these teams.
00:40:29
Speaker
um And you can watch it live on FIFA Plus and you should on Thursday night I think ah cook islands against Tonga the Samoan Darby between American Samoa and Samoa This is World Cup qualifying at its finest these two these four teams are very bad It is not going to matter what happens here um the fact that these teams are even playing World Cup qualifying is sometimes a win in and of itself and Oceanic qualifying I think is interesting and we'll touch on this in October when when we get everybody because for the first time, there's a direct spot for a team from Oceana, which we would probably expect to beat New Zealand, but there's maybe some intrigue there. I don't think there's a ton of intrigue here, but yes, I will be watching on FIFA Plus on Thursday and just giggling to myself and laughing at what I see.
00:41:13
Speaker
So Cook Islands vs Tonga, Samoa Darby, the winners play each other and the winner gets to be in a group with New Zealand, Tahiti and Vanatu. Vanuatu, but yes, Vanuatu. And they're going to lose by a lot in that group pretty consistently. um Yeah. And then the winners of those groups go into a playoff and and then the team who ends up the team who comes out of this at the end is going to make the World Cup and the team who loses the final at the end is going to make an intercontinental playoff. The journey starts here, right?
00:41:45
Speaker
This is a really great elaborate process to give us New Zealand and then some, and another team that will have really earned its spot in the intercontinental playoff and be massively underdogs. Yes. This like when we talk about the South American block, like this is what Paraguay are building towards. Like they want their entire world cup qualification to come down to like playing Fiji, wherever they're going to play these intercontinental playoffs and like, ah,
00:42:11
Speaker
There we go. We finally found somebody worse than us in this process. ah Yeah. I mean, I don't know what to tell you. This is like, yeah, this is what it is. This is Oceanic World Cup qualifying. So yeah, enjoy it. All right. That's it from us. ah We're looking forward to to this action here on Thursday, Friday in Conable. There's two matches on Thursday, three matches on Friday.
00:42:30
Speaker
and then a full slate of matches on Thursday, on Tuesday coming up, um and then the Oceanic Final will be on Sunday evening. So I don't know, a little Sunday night football with with with the Rams and Lions on one screen and Cook Islands and one of the Samoas on the other. It could be any
Conclusion & Patreon Promotion
00:42:44
Speaker
better. If you want to follow World Cup qualifying as best you can,
00:42:48
Speaker
be sure to subscribe to our patreon patreon dot.com slash w c a d you get access to exclusive shows like our september recap show which we'll be recording next week and you get access to the world cup qualification master spreadsheet which has been updated for the september windows you get kickoff times how to watch stream links and so much more updated tables on all of the confederations. It is the one stop shop for figuring out what is happening in World Cup Qualifying. And you can get that at patreon dot.com slash WCAD. All right, that's it for a minute and I will be back next week. Enjoy the football.