Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
WCAD 3-41: World Cup Draw Preview
78 Plays15 days ago
The guys preview Friday's big World Cup Draw. Suits suiting, "celebrities" all around and plenty of intrigue abounds.
Recommended
Transcript
Personal Views on World Cup Draw Ceremonies
00:00:01
Speaker
When we were talking off air about our World Cup draw preview podcast, Amit, you made a very succinct point to me in summing up your general feelings about all draw ceremonies, which are, suit's gonna suit.
00:00:16
Speaker
That is my default take. Draws for thee, not for me. Two hours on a Friday afternoon, Amit Malik has better things to do. Is that what you're telling me? i'll ah I'll catch a graphic later?
00:00:28
Speaker
Exactly. okay I'll get my takes up, but do I need to watch the draws being drawn? No, no, no, no, no. So, so like, this is the World Cup After Dark Podcast. My name is Austin Miller. He is Amit Malik. We are previewing the World Cup draw, which is just a hilarious thing to even say, because it's not a real thing that you actually can like preview because there's no, i mean, there's a little bit of math that goes into it, but it's just all kind of fate. And that's, what's fun. I personally am a sucker for a draw. I love the pageantry of like, look, I get the whole suits going to suit aspect of it. And I i respect that.
00:01:00
Speaker
I also just like can't stand the general complaining about a draw ceremony. Like, you know, you got yourself into here. Like if you didn't want to get yourself into this, just like you're going to do, just look at the graphic later. Right. You don't have to make you sit through this.
00:01:16
Speaker
Exactly. There is something to the, the reaction in the room when the big things happen and the faces of the teams that get the good outcome or the bad outcome, or whether or not they You know, i you know the March Madness is the one that happens every year. We get, you know, lots of Champions League draws. And there is some energy. Sometimes you see a name on the screen and like the the hush comes over the room and they show under they show the team that got drawn a team they didn't really want to see's face. And you learn a lot about who they set there and what face they make. ah And, you know, I think there's some instruction, right, to the the people sitting.
00:01:58
Speaker
You got to put on a face or go, you know, be expressive. It's kind of funny. Yeah, we're going to get some, like, just a random cut to Croatia manager's Lotko Dallas, just like, ah, didn't want that to happen, right? And and that's that's the fun of this. That's the part. Everybody goes into the draw with what they think they could be good and and might not be good, and then it all, you know, goes haywire. and Look, I understand that this draw in particular is perhaps even more charged because, you know, it's going to be two hours long, which is exceedingly excessive. We're getting the debut of the ah the FIFA Peace Prize, which I'll let you try and figure out where that's going to go. um So i I understand the pushback. But at the end of the day,
00:02:38
Speaker
When balls start coming out of pots, I just enjoy it. I just really do.
World Cup 2026 Hosts and Performers
00:02:42
Speaker
i like watching you know all of it get put together. i can sit and play with a draw simulator for hours on end and it really just have a good time. So a bit I have one more final pitch for you. If I haven't convinced you already to to sit down and ah and spend two hours of your Friday afternoon watching the suit suit, can I interest you?
00:03:03
Speaker
In a star-studded entertainment lineup announced for the final draw for the FIFA World Cup 2026 TM. Global icons Heidi Klum and Kevin Hart to co-host Final Draw Show at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.
00:03:19
Speaker
ah You had me at Heidi Klum. You lost me at Kevin Hart. can i can Can I keep going with live performances to be delivered by the legendary maestro Andrea Bocelli, the village people, and global music superstar Robbie Williams? And you know how this draw ceremony is going to end? It's going to end with the village people doing YMCA. Why?
00:03:41
Speaker
Why? It gets the people going, Austin. It gets the people going. It's too fun to stay at the YMCA. They knocked out a college softball reliever out of the game in the sixth inning.
00:03:51
Speaker
And we've got to get the crowd into it. Those are the vibes we're going for. ah Nobody will be staying at the YMCA ahead of this draw. I think it's fair to say. We got better hotels. That's right. Did I swing you?
00:04:05
Speaker
not not Not at the slightest. The best you had me was I would like to see, you know, Andrea Bocelli. Certainly he's had it. a legendary soccer moment before with Lester's title ceremony.
00:04:16
Speaker
But that's a lot for two hours. You're not going sit through two hours to watch the village people do YMCA to bring the house down at the end of it all? Not quite. maybe if some Maybe if they make all the suits do the dance. That's pretty good content. That's something. We'll see who had their suits ready for some arm shoulder movement in their tailoring.
00:04:38
Speaker
Johnny Infantino and Donald Trump on stage doing YMCA alongside the village people. that That's the vibe we're looking at for the 20th. They're trying to break the internet. That's, that's your hook. All right, let's get into actually talking about what matters to us here, which is unfortunately not the village people and the YNCA. It is the draw itself.
FIFA Draw Pots and Constraints
00:04:57
Speaker
Since we've last touched on how this draw will go, of it we have a couple of things that we need to talk about, right? So FIFA confirmed the pots. They did what we thought was the reasonable thing to do.
00:05:10
Speaker
They put all six playoff teams in pot four. All of those teams will be constrained by confederation, right? So the four UEFA playoff teams cannot be drawn into a group with more than one other UEFA team.
00:05:23
Speaker
And the two intercontinental playoff teams will be treated as a tree confederation, right? So the playoff path that consists of New Caledonia, Jamaica, and Dierre Congo, that team cannot be drawn into a group with,
00:05:40
Speaker
Oceania, CONCACAF, or Africa. Obviously, in the case of Oceania, it doesn't matter because the only other Oceanic team, in New Zealand, is in pop four, but you get my point. And along those lines, the playoff pathway that features Bolivia, Suriname, and Iraq also cannot be drawn into a group with a conmoble CONCACAF or AFC team.
00:05:58
Speaker
There are other constraints, right? Only one team from from each confederation can be in a group. That means, for instance, that Argentina in pot one cannot be drawn into a group with Uruguay from pot two or Paraguay from pot three.
00:06:13
Speaker
And perhaps most crucially, FIFA have kind of edged this a little bit. And in rather than letting it all come down to a pure draw, quote, in the interest of ensuring competitive balance, they are separating the top four teams in the draw into four separate paths,
00:06:34
Speaker
should they be group winners. So that means Spain, who are the number one team in the FIFA ranking, and Argentina, who are the number two teams, will be on separate sides of the eventual knockout bracket should they win their groups. And the third-ranked team, France, and the fourth-ranked team, England, will also be on opposite sides of the bracket and in separate quadrants, right?
00:06:55
Speaker
So if Spain, Argentina, France, and England all top their groups, which, look, show me a draw and I'll tell you if I think that's going to happen, That will determine that all four of those teams would kind of head up their quadrants for an eventual semifinal matchup. So if all four of those teams make the semifinal as group winners, those will be your four semifinalists. And they can't play before the semifinals with the caveat that they have to win their group for that to happen, or it just all goes to bunk and we get a completely messed up situation in the knockout route.
00:07:23
Speaker
Thoughts on those decisions. Well, I think that's fun generally. There's not a guarantee that there all those teams are to win their groups. We are going to talk on this show about groups of death, how those things happen. sure you've thought about it. yep On the reaction show, we will identify some groups of death.
00:07:42
Speaker
There is no necessarily advantage for any of those top four teams to avoid a group of death, perhaps. like it could It could be them. We'll get into the math as well.
00:07:54
Speaker
But that being said, all that being said, i think it's i think it's good for the knockout round to kind of quadrant it out a little bit. It's a little boring and safe for those teams, right? They don't have to play each other for fun.
00:08:06
Speaker
But there are plenty of plenty of good teams in this draw. I think any matchup beyond the round of 32 is going to be tough. um And, you know, gives a little steam. I think...
00:08:18
Speaker
I don't think they've done this before. Have they? Nope. This is the first time that this format has been put into play. And I think my feeling on it kind of comes down I'm largely ambivalent towards it. sure I like the idea of a, of everything coming down to fate and a pure draw happening. I also understand that Spain and and Argentina winning their groups and then ending up playing each other in the round of 16 is not super great. Optically. Yeah. And what kind of swings me to being generally okay with it,
00:08:48
Speaker
is I do think that this year in particular, there's a pretty clear top four, right? Yes, yes. Spain, Argentina, France, and England, I think there is a relatively significant
Knockout Round Structure
00:08:59
Speaker
gap to Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, et cetera, behind them in the ranking. And so I don't think we're splitting hairs between four and five who's getting an advantage here. I think on ranking, England probably generally deserve it. Would I be super upset if they didn't get it? No, but I'm also not super upset that they do.
00:09:18
Speaker
Yeah, that was my last point. I agree with you. These teams deserve it. And yeah, it might help them coast a little bit. Not really. You can't really coast in a knockout game.
00:09:29
Speaker
It's healthy for the though the bottom line that these teams could, ah you know, if they if they do meet, it will be in big, big blockbusters having beaten very good teams. And this is certainly the way that ah I think...
00:09:44
Speaker
the sports is going in a lot of ways and they can try to protect these things as much as possible. So that's fine. In terms of the other draws, just to the point of ah the Euro playoffs and the tri-Confederate, it's interesting. I think we were, we are good with the way they handled the European playoffs. I personally, as an as a little bit of surprise and a jolt, it's going to be, if you get a decent European team in your pot four,
00:10:09
Speaker
they're a playoff team. It's not like they're crazy good. And having them in pot two would have thrown off the math. That's my, that's my take.
Competitive Group Stages
00:10:15
Speaker
Like having unequal groups is probably good for the overall health of the, of the competition, right? Like you want the group stage to be competitive. And I think this is a very interesting point that we talk about. And you're going to see on, you know, Friday afternoon on Saturday, when the group of death, hot take machine gets rolling,
00:10:34
Speaker
And a very important point to make here is eight third place teams are going to the round of 32 here. So it is very likely that three points would be enough to make the knockout stage. So group of death is, I think, kind of in air quotes here in that, okay, maybe there's three good teams in this group, but if the fourth team is, say, for instance, ah Cape Verde or Curacao,
00:11:03
Speaker
New Zealand, right? All three of those teams, the three quote unquote good teams in the quote unquote group of death could all be favored to go through. And that's why group of death probably consists of a European playoff team. We'll touch on that in a second. But it's important to note that I don't think the group of death in it in essence is as scary as it may have been in previous World Cups in which there's no third place fallback.
00:11:27
Speaker
Agreed. And I think what you've identified, something that we saw in some of our groups in World Cup qualifying um in a smaller scale, is that it's not going to be three good teams and a fourth bad team that kind of gets you. You need four solid teams close to each other, right even if it's not your top two are the two heaviest two. That's how you get a recipe for, ah your third place team is a little short on points, and that could be a good team that misses out.
00:11:55
Speaker
If you have three good teams and one bad team, exactly like the the scenario you outlined, all of those teams just feel like they have to take care of business once, and they're in okay shape. And that's what we saw in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. That was exactly the... Jamaica and Curacao had the worst team in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying in their group in Bermuda. What did that mean? That meant that they were relatively safe to finish in second place because they racked up the goal differential. So, group of death, to me, I think is probably a bit strong.
00:12:22
Speaker
I think the most intriguing groups will be the most even groups. yeah Because you get... And that, I think to me, as we kind of switch into looking at what we can expect from this draw, that is probably going to come from one of two things.
00:12:37
Speaker
One, the three host countries who are outliers in pot one. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are good teams, right? The United States, can they're not pot four teams masquerading as pot one teams, but they're also not pot one teams. They are pot two-ish teams that have been bumped up a spot. And so that means... that you can absolutely get a scenario where those host teams get a strong team from the second pot, get a good challenger from the third pot, and a European playoff team from the fourth pot. And all of a sudden, you have four teams that can all beat each other over three match days, and that leads to chaotic, dramatic, fun group stage soccer.
00:13:17
Speaker
Yeah, 100%. And I think now we can kind of... look at the ingredients for
Team Analysis in Different Pots
00:13:23
Speaker
some fun, you know, what you, what you're kind of looking for. I mean, I know we, if you're looking at this yourself, you also probably have some ideas, but we've been watching these teams for a lot. There's some very clear teams in pot three that are going to spoil some parties and certainly in pot four, obviously the European playoffs, we can kind of look exactly at which ones.
00:13:44
Speaker
And then we can also talk about the the softer spots in pot two. Yep, for sure. So let's start, but with pot two, right? So I think the danger teams for pot two, Morocco, not a team you want to see, especially, and I think this is kind of critical, right?
00:14:01
Speaker
Getting Morocco in your group in pot two means that you have an equal chance to get Norway out of pot three. Right. Because you're not adding a European team to the mix. So say, for instance, you are Portugal or you're Belgium. Right. A kind of bottom tier pot one team that you expect to go through.
00:14:17
Speaker
And then all of a sudden out pops Switzerland from pot two. You're happy with that because you know what that means? You can't get Norway and you can't get a European playoff winner. So that i think is intriguing.
00:14:28
Speaker
Scotland's also solid enough. You know, you'd rather see some of the other pot three teams. Sure. So Morocco definitely dangerous from pot two. Colombia are a good team in pot two. Uruguay are a good team in pot two. We've talked a lot about Senegal.
00:14:41
Speaker
Ecuador can defend. Japan, I think, are the best team in Asia. We've seen what they can do. Those are danger teams for pot two. But I don't think... The teams from pot one are terribly concerned with what comes out of pot two.
00:14:56
Speaker
Are there teams you would prefer over the others? Of course, right? If you give me the option, yeah, give me Australia out of that pot. Absolutely. Iran. I've seen Iran at the World Cup. I know what that's going to look like.
00:15:06
Speaker
If I'm a good, consistent European team, if I'm Argentina, I'm going to like my chances to beat Iran over 90 minutes. I agree with you completely, but those are for kind of all the European teams. If you are USA, Mexico, or Canada, right you're very scared of, I mean, i'm Morocco, certainly, scared of Colombia and Uruguay, very scared of Japan.
00:15:31
Speaker
I mean, that's Ecuador too. All these teams are good, but um like over half of them are really you know going to have a case for being good. better than you.
00:15:43
Speaker
like right yeah You're really trying to hot hope you get Australia, Korea. i mean, what do we what do we have in Croatia? That's a question we can't answer, but i don't think anyone would be upset to see Croatia at this stage in their life cycle.
00:16:01
Speaker
So I think my main pot two point is as a pot one team and as a pot two team, you can survive that part of the draw being difficult. That's not what is going to sink your draw.
00:16:12
Speaker
It's that plus what can come after that makes things complicated that has you queasy, right? If you have two good teams and two – we've seen lots of those groups in the World Cup before, right? You remember the England, Belgium, Tunisia – I don't remember – Panama group, right? Like, yeah, England, Belgium, ooh.
00:16:31
Speaker
Tunisia, Panama, whatever. So that is something that can absolutely happen. And so that, as we shift to pot three, this, I think, is where everything is absolutely critical and is going to differ because there is a massive, massive difference of quality in this pot, right?
00:16:48
Speaker
Obviously, Norway gets all of the headlines. Nobody wants to be in the same group as Norway. particularly if you're one of the host countries because you can get Norway and another European team after, right? Because you are not a European team yourself. If you're a European team, you'd probably rather avoid, everybody wants to avoid Norway.
00:17:07
Speaker
I agree with that assessment, but it's not just them that I think are dangerous out of pot three. I'm looking at Ivory Coast who have been tremendous defensively, who can make your life hard. One of the best teams in Africa who are woefully under ranked at forty second I think Norway and Ivory coast are absolutely the two teams you don't want to see at a pot three.
00:17:26
Speaker
And I think Paraguay and Scotland can be dangerous and maybe we'll fly a bit under the radar as far as difficult opposition is concerned. I agree with those completely. i you know, I think the, the biggest, biggest story of maybe the whole draw is where Norway and the Ivory coast go.
00:17:45
Speaker
I think like that's, those are the two teams that are going to most likely be in a group of death. Um, And then, you know, I agree with your other two. And then I also think, I think, got to give Uzbekistan some credit.
00:17:56
Speaker
not Not that we weren't giving them credit, but i I think one of our favorite stats is Uzbekistan and Iran just draw every time. And Iran is a solid pot two, if not a weaker pot two team. But i think Uzbekistan's a tough out. I don't think that's a team you want to play.
00:18:11
Speaker
I think they're going to be very, not only... Are they underranked? They're underscouted. I'm not sure anyone has them on their radar. um Listen, are they going to necessarily be a group of death? I don't know.
00:18:23
Speaker
But I also agree with you. Scotland, Paraguay, tough to play against. Uzbekistan, we know, are at least tough to play against. The other teams, I think they all have a case for just being what what we're going to call a soft landing spot.
00:18:38
Speaker
yeah I don't think you or I are convinced on – go ahead. Yeah, there's there's two types of soft landing in this group, right? There is, I know they're going to sit back. They're going to try to defend. They're going to try to make my life difficult soft landing, right? I'm looking at Panama. i'm looking Maybe not Panama. We'll we'll talk about them in a second. But definitely looking at Egypt. Definitely looking at Nigeria. Definitely looking at Tunisia.
00:18:58
Speaker
I know exactly what I'm going to get from those three teams at the World Cup. And then there's the second type of soft landing, which is they might try to play with me. They're not going to be able to play with me. That's Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa who can't get the bunker down system to work. And so they're going to have to try and play. And again, I've seen Qatar and Saudi Arabia play against teams that are better than them. I know how that goes. So because of that, I think those are definitely the softer of the landing spots.
00:19:23
Speaker
And I think you can pick and choose your pot one teams out of which of those softer landing spots they'd probably prefer, right? Like, Maybe Spain don't want to see a super bunker team because that could theoretically cause them problems. But again, look, Spain are going back themselves against me.
00:19:39
Speaker
We've seen, as you said, that first group of teams, Egypt, Algeria, and Tunisia, they can do things at a World Cup. They can do things in a major tournament because of their organization, but they don't have necessarily the the highest ceiling. I think that's a ah soft landing that's tough to get in your group. They're not going to hurt you.
00:19:58
Speaker
The other teams... It's the type of team you you want to see because they're going to come at you and not be, able as you said, not be able to do it. And that's just the recipe for the best teams to undress you. So we'll we'll see how that shakes out.
00:20:11
Speaker
And then there's Panama, who are ranked 30th, which I think we both agree is is certainly too high. Panama's not the 30th best team. But I also think Panama have evolved past the point of being a bunker counter. like They're going to approach this World Cup significantly differently than what they did when they were last at the World Cup in 2018. They can play more. They can do more things in the midfield.
00:20:33
Speaker
but they probably can't match the level of the types of teams that they're going to see. And crucially, the teams that they are most comfortable playing against, the United States, Canada, and Mexico, can't draw because they're in the same confederation.
00:20:45
Speaker
That last point is a key one. And I think for Panama, what's what really matters for them is the team they see in part their pot two team, right? Right. A tough pot two team, Japan, maybe maybe a Morocco, someone really slick, that's trouble for them.
00:21:03
Speaker
I think Columbia, Uruguay and Ecuador are, you know, better, but you, you get just about anyone else. I think Panama could talk themselves into, Hey, we need a point here and we need three against a bad team. We can get it as a, like, there's a lot more ways to talk yourself into it.
00:21:17
Speaker
And so as these pot two and pot three teams are thinking about this, I think it it it kind of helps to also look back at pot one and establish that there are also tiers there, right? Sure. You probably want to be, do you want to be with the host country? I think so, because I think the level is less, but also you have the home field advantage going have to deal with in one of your matches, whether it be against Canada, Mexico, or the United States.
00:21:40
Speaker
So looking at the pot one teams, the soft landing spots are, Probably Portugal and Belgium, right? In comparison to the other teams in this first pot, taking the hosts out of consideration.
00:21:54
Speaker
Yeah, you really want to play Belgium. Belgium's the worst team. They're just not very exceptional in anything. And I think Portugal depends on the type of team you are, yeah right?
00:22:06
Speaker
if you're if you're If you can play a little bit, even if you're one of those worst pot three teams, or if you're a team in pot two that can play, you want to see Portugal because you can take a game to them because they don't defend.
00:22:17
Speaker
Like, same thing with Belgium. if you're a bunkered team, you are, you don't want to see Portugal, I think, because that they're, they're very equipped to do all the undressing. yeah That isn't C dot Ronaldo, 77 pen, right? Like, yeah, that's how that movie goes. They could, they they could work you down in a way that's, that's going to be tough. And maybe that even a team, like again, so much of this is matchup space. We're going to have a lot of fun talking about it. Cause like, I don't think either of us think Brazil are very good.
00:22:47
Speaker
But they are, I think, at that same level exactly as Belgium or Netherlands. And it feels almost just – it does not feel right to say that you want to see Brazil as your pot one team. I can't really – that doesn't compute for me. sure Again, if you're the right kind of team, it's funny because the teams that would be best suited to see Brazil are the pot two combo ball teams that can't get them. And that's what's interesting about – and that's what makes the – Look, this is why I love the World Cup so much is all of these teams compete in their own little circles and they smack each other and they fight and they fight and they claw. And then you chuck at a World Cup and it's like, ah, what happens when a really good defensive African team plays a really open, slick Asian team? Like, what do the... like
00:23:35
Speaker
What does that equation give us? And that's what's super interesting. And then you get to the knockout stages and you can throw back in, ah, we're running back the goodies and we're getting Brazil, Colombia, or we're getting England, France and that type of thing. and so that, look, yeah, I don't need to sell the world cup to you, but that's what is the sell for the world cup.
00:23:54
Speaker
Yeah, if you're Senegal or um Iran, you you really would like to, I think, avoid some of the the heavy European hitters, and you'd really be okay with seeing Brazil, or you'd obviously want a CONCACAF team.
00:24:10
Speaker
Yeah,
Pot 4 Uncertainty and Playoffs
00:24:11
Speaker
definitely. All right, so pot four, then, Amit, is obviously very interesting because much like pot three, there is a very wide range of possibilities. And again, the possibility range is made even wider by the fact that we don't know who six of these teams are.
00:24:27
Speaker
And while we can say, i think it's probably this or that, the fact of the matter is the playoffs, as we talked about when we recapped the playoff draws, are largely wide open.
00:24:39
Speaker
There are very few things that can happen in the playoffs that would genuinely surprise us, and there are probably very few things that you and I feel legitimately confident about in talking about with the playoffs.
00:24:51
Speaker
And so that means that this wide range of teams grows even wider and rangier because of the fact that there are so many distinct possibilities. So let's talk about what we know in POP4. Right. There are six teams that we know of those six teams. I think there is one very clear team that you would feel less comfortable with than the other five.
00:25:12
Speaker
And that's Ghana. Right. Look, I know Ghana have their issues. I know they can't defend. I know you can't trust anything about Ghana ever. But when you stack Ghana up against Jordan, Cape Verde, Curacao, Haiti and New Zealand, it's very clear who the best team of that bunch is.
00:25:28
Speaker
Yeah, i there's a ah i agree completely. And there's a case Ghana are better than almost, ah not almost all, but a lot of the pot three teams. I think they're, you know, i don't we don't think they're as good as Ivory Coast or Norway. On their they can't.
00:25:43
Speaker
On their day, they can be. And then if you start going down in terms of soft landings, right, they're in the case of They're going to play because they can't bunker. They're going to have to come at you. And I think they're better at coming at you than Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, even Panama. You want to talk about top end talent.
00:26:02
Speaker
Ghana is ah Ghana is a borderline pot two team like the others in pot three. I think that's obviously the the toughest team outright you can get. And look, could it all crash and burn and fail because this is God Adam Age's tournament? Absolutely, of course. But as far as range of possibilities is concerned, theirs of these six teams, I think we're both in agreement is significantly the highest. And...
00:26:23
Speaker
there's a million narratives that we're we're not touching on this podcast right now, but gotta have the historical, like, listen, this is a team that's been to knockout stage of the world cup done, been in some of the biggest world cup moments. USA bogey team. Right. yeah So like, it's just a team you don't want to see. I think on not only on the performance, but on the vibes of listen, Jordan, haven't been there. Okay. Bird haven't been there. Curse. I've been there. Haiti, like New Zealand, barely been there. So like,
00:26:50
Speaker
it's just the most seasoned World Cup team out of the ones we know in pot four. Yeah, you're looking at five teams that, to be completely frank, are happy to be... our Their goal was to make the World Cup. They've achieved that. and Now they're going to go and try and get results and make the knockout stage. And that's a legitimate goal, and it's a possible goal.
00:27:07
Speaker
But again, if they don't, that isn't going to be seen as as any big failure. And then we've got the six playoff teams in minute. And I think... Looking at this, so from a European perspective, you knock out probably the other four European playoff teams. There's a chance that a European playoff team can get in a group with a pot one European team, because again, two European teams can be in a group.
00:27:30
Speaker
But I think it's low. It's total of 10% about that. Yeah. in Teams gets to pot for getting another European team, as you said, as you've alluded to, sorry. Right. So we can mathematically simulate the probabilities of of a team being in the group. And we didn't do that because we have lives to be completely frank, but lucky for us, the good people of Reddit did do that. And so, uh, we're going to go to smaller zero one seven on Reddit for a world cup probability of teams being the same group based on 10,000 simulations. And again, When you do that, what you find is that there are certain combinations that are more difficult to have happen than others because of the order of the groups. So for instance, Canada, the US and Mexico are all in higher groups, A, ah B and d So that means that there are more possibilities for them because there are it's less likely that a team comes out and has to be skipped and thrown into a group later. Obviously that can still happen with the confederation. So I think the two biggest points from that, Amit, are the point that you just made
00:28:32
Speaker
where European teams facing a European playoff team is probably about 8% to 12% from pot one or pot two, right? That's the chance of that type of matchup happening.
00:28:44
Speaker
And European playoff teams facing a host country is about an 80% chance, right? Four out of five chance that the U.S. out of pot four will be playing a European playoff team. And that is simply, it's a maths equation, right? Because both Interconfederation Path winners can't be paired with any of the hosts. And you also have two other teams that can't be paired with the hosts in Curacao and Haiti because they are CONCACAF teams.
00:29:11
Speaker
and So that means you have four UEFA playoff teams and you have four known teams in POP4. There's only eight possibilities for the U.S. teams in POP4, for those host teams in POP4. And again, it's unlikely that you get to POP4 with two European teams already in your group. Because you would have to draw a European team from both pot two. And then you would have to get either Norway and Scotland from pot three. And that brings us all full circle back to say our most likely groups of death are probably going to consist of the host countries because of the fact that they are likely to get a European playoff team.
00:29:46
Speaker
Well said. And I think if you are... those three CONCACAF teams, you're really, really trying to avoid Norway.
00:29:57
Speaker
ah You're really trying to avoid Norway in pot three because that that you're almost automatically set up for some As you said, group of death. And then one group of death, I think you said it well, our term of it of four even teams, right? And that's what you you circle back to. It's it's just very likely that's going to happen. And then you start, you know, tinkering with the matchups a little bit. I think you could kind of rank them.
00:30:20
Speaker
The Italy pot, probably the toughest pot. We know Italy is there. Okay. Okay. Then maybe Denmark. Then maybe Turkey. Then maybe Ukraine. i It's kind of semantics, right? Like, yeah we're we're picking nits here. But I think, obviously, you don't want to see Italy. Even for all of the – they can't score. That's just a miserable team to play against in your group.
00:30:45
Speaker
And then you – Denmark are fine. I don't know. The rest of them are kind of okay. Yeah, but then kind of okay is a lot better than the rest of the stuff coming out of pop. Right. You could get a lot. Yeah. Yes. um The other point here is um one of the playoff teams is a lot, I think, scarier than the other.
00:31:04
Speaker
I think you really don't want to see DRC Jamaica, even if Jamaica are fine. They're better than the other pot four teams, even if they they couldn't get a ton against Curacao.
00:31:15
Speaker
DRC are nasty to play against. I think they're right there with the Ghana-ish, a pot four team masquerading as a pot three team. And then the other playoff, Iraq, Bolivia, Suriname.
00:31:29
Speaker
It's pot three ish, but that's not necessarily going to be a draw that that kills you. And it's honestly the European teams really, really, really want to see this.
00:31:40
Speaker
One of them is going to get this playoff. Almost certainly. They really want to see it. And that's what's super intriguing is the way that the math breaks down, it's very likely that that playoff path gets put into a group with Croatia, Switzerland, and Austria out of pot two because there's just so many other pot two teams that that group can't go with, right?
Geographical Groupings and Scheduling
00:32:02
Speaker
because there's only five teams from pot two that that group can go with of 12. That's the three European teams. And then it's Senegal and Morocco. So because of that, the odds are very high that one of those three teams is in a group with Iraq, that playoff path, and that you've also got a playoff path team with a European team from pot. It has to be a European team from pot one because you have both CONCACAF and CONWABOL in that playoff path. So again, that's the way that the maths are are mathing there.
00:32:32
Speaker
I agree completely. And specifically dr DR Congo is a team that should believe it can have a chance of getting out. Absolutely. Like you said, and you know, you, you start looking at the matchups again, there there's going to be some ways it breaks out where it could be really nice for them. And there's going to be somewhere could be tough. So it's pretty, pretty fascinating. Pop four is a lot of intrigue. It's, I almost wish you could draw it first, and but that's, that doesn't really help. Yeah.
00:33:02
Speaker
I like it. i like it. Who knows? Maybe they will. We don't know. Yeah. yeah Maybe the C from the village people YMCA is going to come out and draw pot four. You never know what's going to happen. um Can I, can I interest you in like maybe two predictions? Like, do you want to throw out U S group? And do you want to throw out like one matchup that you feel like is going to happen here?
00:33:24
Speaker
Uh, let's hear yours first. I haven't like gotten there yet. Okay. All right. I'll, I'll give you the time to get there. I think the U S group is going to be Ecuador from part two.
00:33:41
Speaker
i think they're going to get Norway from pot three. And I think they're going to get Ghana from pot four.
00:33:52
Speaker
You think they're getting the top. That's a tough group for the United States. It's a tricky little group. It's a tricky little group. That's that that's where I'm just throwing my darts again. Like so there's there's no reason for me. So obviously it is a draw show and respect the sanctity of a draw. But doesn't it feel like they've got to give the U.S. something good? Right.
00:34:11
Speaker
Like they did. They gave him a pretty good 22 draw. We had England and Iran. Like, come on. Yeah. Yeah. The, the storylines, right. little, a little, ah a little cold ball, hot ball in those, in those pots. yeah Who's, who's getting out of the top eight, the soft draw. Can you could get a draw if you get Australia or Korea and a non Norway South, ah ivory coast group, you can absolutely have a very soft draw.
00:34:39
Speaker
Yeah, like if... And can you do you could do that even and a CONCACAF team. Like, you it from pot four. You could have a real soft draw. If Scotland falls in there from pot three, even, look, if if Switzerland falls out of pot two, like, I think there's a lot of teams in pot one that aren't going to be particularly scared of Switzerland and and even maybe Croatia.
00:34:59
Speaker
I think... I, I feel like England, like again, England just have this thing where they just refuse to play. And so, yeah right. yeah You know, what's going to allow them to refuse to play. They're not going to have to play. Cause they're not going to play anybody. We needed Serbia in the playoff. Cause that was, that would have happened. You know, I think Turkey's a team that could be dangerous. Turkey's a team that if they get through, which as you preface, we are not confident about any of those.
00:35:28
Speaker
Um, They'd be fun. Turkey, Spain was was good fun. That certainly could happen. True. ah Unlikely. You got a U.S. group for me? Nah, I don't know what's going to happen. I think they could get... yeah i'm I'm feeling like Senegal is ah is a U.S. spot. And then I'm thinking... I'm thinking not... ah Maybe Paraguay. Did you say Paraguay? Paraguay, and then obviously it would be it'd be a playoff. A UEFA playoff team then.
00:36:01
Speaker
Okay. Yeah, i I think they could give them instead of Paraguay, they could get one of those Asian teams. Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar.
00:36:13
Speaker
but one, no, that would be, that would be my, there you go. that's Yeah. Okay. All right. You thought about it. Uh, one of the logistical point to pull out here in draws past FIFA has drawn a team and then drawn their position into the group, right? So the pot one team is automatically position one.
00:36:29
Speaker
And then the team that comes out of pot two can be positioned two, three, or four. And that determines the order of the matches that you play. That will not be happening this year. They have predetermined, which teams will go into which position. It's not the same for every group. This is probably done to ensure that these groups aren't done and dusted by the end and that all of the good games, if you will, in air quotes, don't fall on the last match day when teams could rest players, et cetera. So it's going to be a various mix of things.
00:36:58
Speaker
um I think the the the teams that we kind of need... to think about here. And and again, the, the, really the only thing we know is that, right. The opening games for these host countries. So the U S will open against a team from pot three, Canada will open against team from pot four and Mexico opening us a team from pot three. That means that it's potentially your world cup opening match could be like Mexico, Saudi Arabia or Mexico, Uzbekistan, followed by Canada, South Africa, right. Which is sometimes how these things go.
00:37:33
Speaker
I think it's fine that they did that. It gives some randomness. Uh, we'll, we'll have a very good idea though, right away. Like what the biggest yeah matches like calendar is get, get your Sharpie out.
00:37:45
Speaker
Yeah. We're two days away from it. A full schedule will come out on Saturday, which again, FIFA is doing to maximize matches going to bigger stadiums and, um Sorry, bigger stadiums and the right match times, kickoff times and all that. You're telling yeah they're going to put Curacao Uzbekistan not in it so far funny? Buddy, I'm going to promise you that that game is going to be played at noon is going to suffer through at least three different lightning delays and before it gets to completion. um And also one thing that we didn't touch on is the groups have been portioned out geographically.
00:38:23
Speaker
Right. So each group, while it's not certain where those matches will be, which matches played where it is certain where the matches will be played in general, if that makes sense. For instance, just picking out a random group.
00:38:37
Speaker
Group F takes place in the southern-ish quadrant of host cities, right? You've got Arlington, you've got Monterey, you've got Houston, Monterey again, Arlington, and then Kansas City. So that is something to to play into factor here.
00:38:50
Speaker
I think we can probably safely say it's going to be hot pretty much everywhere. Travel is going to be long and arduous, but maybe not as long as art and arduous as it could have been. There are probably certain teams that have certain groups kind of pencil circled that they would prefer geographically and competitive-wise, so that'll be something else that we'll see play out.
00:39:13
Speaker
Yeah, I think the travel is tough, but the grouping is is good. um They'll find a way to give some of our European favorites some indoor indoor cushion. yeah And that will be good because that game will actually happen and we'll be suffer to lightning. delay delay The World Cup after our podcast next summer is just going to be the lightning delight show because there's going to be a lot of us, unfortunately. But that's OK. We'll cross that bridge when we get there. ah It's close. We're two days away from finding out World Cup groups and three days away from being able to print out a World Cup schedule and pin it on the wall and start counting down the days. I can't wait.
Supporting the Podcast
00:39:46
Speaker
We'll be back on Friday. Yeah, I'm it.
00:39:48
Speaker
Yeah. Well, we're going to talk some matchups. I know. We're going to talk actual matchups. We're going to talk about all of our friends coming together. One big party. It's going be the World Cup. We'll see you guys Friday. If you like what we do here on the World Cup After Dark Podcast, patreon.com slash WCAD to support us for what we do. $3 a month. Access to subscriber only shows. the world cup qualification mastered spreadsheet, which is almost complete because world cup qualification is almost complete. But again, you can support us that if you like what we do, you can also rate, subscribe, click all the ah buttons that you can find. And we'll talk to you guys on Friday.