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WCAD 3-31: One Year Out
66 Plays24 days ago
With just over a year to go until the 2026 World Cup, the guys preview an exciting June window. In Asia, World Cup berths are on the line, with all eyes (and pressure) on Uzbekistan, Jordan and Australia. Meanwhile, Venezuela face Bolivia in a key CONMEBOL clash, while Italy make their qualification debut with a stiff test against Norway, and CONCACAF gets set to cut their field from 30 to 12.
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Transcript
Introduction and World Cup Anticipation
00:00:00
Speaker
Believe it or not, we are one year-ish away from the World Cup. This long journey that we started, gosh, nearly two years ago is slowly but surely coming to an end. And so as we celebrate one year out, it's the World Cup After Dark podcast. We are back. My name is Austin Miller.
00:00:18
Speaker
His name is Amit Malik. Amit, it feels like we talk about how real it's getting on every single preview podcast. So I'll just throw you the question again. It's getting real.
00:00:29
Speaker
It's getting more real by the minute. we got We got a World Cup this summer, Austin, the Club World Cup. Yeah, believe me, well aware. Yeah, ah but and I think just for you know from the United States perspective, certainly it ah it's it's very, very real.
00:00:45
Speaker
In a year, there are going to be international teams in America playing the World Cup. We get that flavor, I should say, and that's certainly exciting. But um no, I think everyone is is kind of feeling it this last season before.
Podcast Coverage Plans and Asian Qualifiers
00:01:00
Speaker
the world cup, the, uh, 25, 26 season, which will start in August, you know, every player, you can kind of look at that lens of, well, how they're going to do. And you really don't want to get injured that next year. So it's ah it's, it's all here. It's all here now.
00:01:14
Speaker
Gold cup summer as well, obviously in the U S if you wanted to see Saudi Arabia back up, whatever they're about to do in Asia over the next week by a gold cup trip to the U S Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago. Right.
00:01:26
Speaker
Yeah, and we're not talking about the United States ah men's national team on this podcast, but I can't say that anything in their Gold Cup news cycle has gone well either. Mauricio Pochettino basically saying, we don't need these reps with everyone together.
00:01:43
Speaker
Emphasis on those words in that order, which was not what you want to hear. um We'll do some Gold Cup coverage. We ah we got the Zencaster full-year plan locked up between now and the World Cup, so we could podcast whatever we want. So, yeah, we'll we'll do some Gold Cup coverage. It's an interesting little tournament, um an eclectic mix of teams, but that's not what we're here to do today. We are here to preview this Jude International window in World Cup qualifying.
00:02:06
Speaker
What do we have at stake in this window? We reach a dramatic conclusion in the Asian third round. That's where a lot of our attention is going to be focused today. ah Four spots on the line for sure. Tickets to the fourth round. A lot, a lot going on over the next week or so in Asia.
00:02:21
Speaker
Up to five teams could secure spots in ConvoBowl qualifying, or none of them could, but probably some of them will. We will see the CONCACAF field cut from 30 to 12. Not a ton of surprise or intrigue involved there, but we'll pick out some spots.
00:02:35
Speaker
And we've got the second round of UEFA qualifying, the second set of matches, I should say. And there's some actual big matches that we will be previewing more on that towards the end of the show. But a bit, let's jump right into the Asian qualifiers. We covered a lot of this on our March recap show. I think that's a good place to start if you're looking for a breakdown.
00:02:53
Speaker
But let's review the stakes of what we have here in June. Of the six spots that Asia is handing out in this round two have been claimed already by Iran and Japan. Four more guaranteed spots the World Cup will be handed out by the end of action on Tuesday.
00:03:06
Speaker
And we have six spots in the wackily formatted fourth round. So, Amit, let's start in Group A. Iran are secured of their World Cup berth. Uzbekistan, a team that we have followed throughout this qualification cycle, needs simply a point against the UAE on Thursday, or they need to win against Qatar on Tuesday.
00:03:26
Speaker
It sounds easy. We'll see if it is as much. If Uzbekistan don't get that point against the UAE, the UAE are the best-placed team to pounce. If they beat Uzbekistan head-to-head and then can follow that up with three points in Bishkek against Kyrgyzstan, things could get very interesting.
00:03:40
Speaker
Qatar, I mean, should just squeak through in fourth, but there is a scenario that if Qatar dropped points against a round on Thursday and then Kyrgyzstan beat North Korea, that Kyrgyzstan could actually jump Qatar on the last day if Kyrgyzstan beat the UAE in Bishkek and Qatar dropped points against Uzbekistan.
00:03:55
Speaker
It's not likely, but it is also not impossible. Where do we start here? I think it's with Uzbekistan. Will the moment be too big for the Uzbeks? That's the question we've been asking this whole so whole cycle.
00:04:08
Speaker
And they're finally at the point where the pressure has mounted the most. right And I think if they struggle um against UAE, we certainly could be in for some wacky, wacky stuff on the final day.
00:04:21
Speaker
And I think you really, really feel them sweat it. But they've set themselves up so well that I'm thinking that it's going to be smooth sailing on Thursday.
00:04:32
Speaker
Because they just need that point, right? And they're so hard to score against. And if UAE try to go get a goal, try to get three points in this game... you know Uzbekistan, that just that just kind of sits into their solidity. they They're very comfortable playing that kind of game.
00:04:47
Speaker
So I think it's going to be fine. I think it's goingnna be fine. But... um You know, you maybe they maybe you're i you're tied 1-1 in the last minute. You've kind of settled for your point, and then something happens. That would be a way I could see them getting undone, and then everything goes to chaos. So there's certainly scenarios. But I feel, you know, if we're handicapping these kinds of things, I'm feeling above the 80%, 90% confidence range that they get this this point at least.
00:05:17
Speaker
UAE is not bad, but it's going to take a lot for them to to get three Yeah, so it's interesting about with Uzbekistan. Their away games have been fairly chaotic in this qualification cycle, in this round, right?
00:05:29
Speaker
2-2 draw away against Iran, a 3-2 loss to Qatar in a game that they probably should have gotten something out of. They beat Kyrgyzstan 3-2, and then they beat North Korea 1-0. That game was played in Laos.
00:05:40
Speaker
Their home games have have really followed ah a pretty clear script, which is a nil-nil draw against Iran, and then a trio of one ni wins against the UAE, Kyrgyzstan, and North Korea. I think on the entirety of everything with two chances to get it right, I think you'd back Uzbekistan to get it right.
00:05:55
Speaker
But it's also not implausible this scenario that we put out where the UAE beats them because these are two teams that are fairly similar overall, right? And then you have this weird match with Qatar at home where perhaps Qatar get there and they actually need a result and then things could go south.
00:06:14
Speaker
But on the whole, Over two matches, i think I am backing Uzbekistan here over these two games. um But there are players on on the UAE that can make them play, right? Fabio Lima, Kyle Canedo, the Brazilian imports for UAE have been good this qualification cycle.
00:06:31
Speaker
Let's see if Uzbekistan can get it done. I think that is certainly one of the things that I, in particular, am most looking forward to on Thursday is this game in Abu Dhabi between these two teams.
00:06:42
Speaker
Because i mean we're going to see UAE have to go for it. The pressure's on, and they can play attacking soccer. They're not very good at defensive soccer. They're going to use the ball and try to break it down. It'll be it'll be a very good, honestly, for Asia, high-quality game.
00:06:58
Speaker
And obviously the scenes, if you know Uzbekistan pull it off, will be some of the all-time stuff we've been waiting you know this whole cycle to see. So I certainly think even the quality should be good because of the pressures on UAE, and they can they can meet that.
00:07:12
Speaker
But also the stakes, right, you know, It's going to be, it it could get sweaty. Maybe it'll be an exciting Uzbekistan away game that we get all the time. should pretty good theater. However the game goes, I would imagine.
00:07:24
Speaker
You, uh, and your answer there, a bit, you mentioned bad at defending, uh, that can also apply to our friends from Qatar who have 16 goals for, which is tied top of the group and 21 goals against, which is far and away the worst result. And this is a group that contains North Korea who have yet to win a match.
00:07:40
Speaker
Um, Qatar should finish fourth here. it it's a It's a stretch, the the scenario that I painted there for you, right? But again, they're playing at a Ron team that that already sliced and diced them earlier in this cycle to the tune of 4-1.
00:07:54
Speaker
It's not out of the realm possibility that they lose that. And if they go into that last match with something on the line, And Uzbekistan are maybe playing with something on the line. Things could go south. But again, we're backing Qatar to make the fourth round. And then it's kind of reset and see what happens there because everybody's starting on a blank slate, right?
00:08:13
Speaker
Yeah, I think if they're if they had a little more control and potentially push them for second, if that is to say if Uzbekistan didn't need just a point, I think you'd see them kind of wake up a little bit and give a bit more effort.
00:08:25
Speaker
um And certainly if they get to Tuesday with a chance, To get to the top two. So they don't. They don't. They're seven points back, yeah right? So yeah they're done. The only thing they have to do is save themselves from complete disaster, which you would back them to But it's Qatar team that we've seen play really bad all cycle.
00:08:42
Speaker
Iran is not going to be motivated at all. And perhaps the players might figure out themselves on the pitch that Qatar can kind of waltz to some...
00:08:55
Speaker
favorable results. i'm I'm just suggesting that i I think this is a little eat them too comfortable for them. I guess they could be sweating it out, but Kyrgyzstan is also not very good.
00:09:06
Speaker
It's a fairly, it's a very changed Iran squad. A lot of domestic based players. There's no Asmune. There is no Johan Vash. So this is a changed Iran team, which actually could make it easier for Iran to get it right. Like players who are motivated playing for theoretical spots around the bottom of the pecking order do better than players who are unmotored. I don't know.
00:09:27
Speaker
We'll see. i think we expect logic to hold here, but there's certainly scenarios that, in which it doesn't. So let's move on to group B, Amit. South Korea are atop this group. They need one win to qualify against Iraq away or Kuwait at home. Those are their two matches.
00:09:44
Speaker
They have yet to mathematically qualify. We would expect them to do so in this window. Jordan, Iraq, and Oman will probably finish two to four in some order. Jordan currently sit on 13 points. Iraq sit on 12 points. Oman are in fourth on 10 points.
00:09:58
Speaker
Jordan and Oman will play head-to-head in Muscat on Thursday. Jordan and Iraq will play head-to-head in Oman on Tuesday. A Jordan win plus an Iraq loss. Again, they are playing away against South Korea on Thursday. That would seal it. Jordan would finish second.
00:10:12
Speaker
Whereas an Iraq draw would also probably mean that the goal differential seals it for Jordan. And quick a quick mention for Palestine, who if they managed to win twice, they could actually jump Oman to fourth. We don't expect that to be something that happens.
00:10:24
Speaker
ah but Where are you putting the odds for a second? This is a humongous opportunity for Jordan because if they simply beat Oman in Muscat, as long as Iraq don't go away and beat South Korea, which feels like a pretty tall task, they would steal their World Cup spot with a match to play.
00:10:41
Speaker
yeah I agree with you until the fact that South Korea is exactly the type of team that could just ship that result. Yeah, throw away a two-one result to Iraq. I agree. Yeah, that's the that's the biggest worry. And, you know, I think a Iraq are solid.
00:10:57
Speaker
but i don't know. If South Korea do that, the question is completely different because then we're talking about South Korea potentially finishing in third and having to go into a ah next round. I would certainly handicap. but I think Iraq could certainly do something here.
00:11:09
Speaker
But because South Korea are also kind of motivated for just that point in the same way Uzbekistan was, they they definitely want to wrap this thing up. They don't want to go to the final day. I think that gives Jordan that head start and the fact that they could really wrap it up on Thursday.
00:11:25
Speaker
So I'm going to put it around 72. seventy
00:11:31
Speaker
75. Jordan. oh Yeah. yeah Yeah, I mean, we'll see. I mean, it's it's really hard to say because of the good teams, Korea are very unpredictable.
00:11:42
Speaker
And Iraq and Jordan are close. I mean... yeah I don't know. I don't know. but My thoughts on this are are a couple. First, Iraq, it feels like they really had their chance in March and they really threw it away, right? They drew, had to come from behind with two goals and stoppage time to even get a point at a home against Kuwait.
00:12:01
Speaker
And then they lost from a winning position against Palestine in Jordan. Those are the results that you really need if you're going to make a game of this. It was all in front of them and they kind of threw it away. Jordan, when they played Olan at home, beat them 4-0.
00:12:15
Speaker
That's a pretty big difference. And South Korea, for all that we've said about them, and all of it is accurate that we've said about them, they've still yet to lose in this round. They've drawn four times, three of those being at home, but they have still yet to lose a match. And that, to me, suggests that it is a very tall task for Iraq to go to South Korea, and they don't just need to draw the match. They probably need to win it, because the goal differential is such. Jordan at plus six, Iraq at plus one.
00:12:41
Speaker
If you give a rock another point for a draw, you say that Jordan beats Oman by the minimum. That's a six goal difference. And a rock are going to have to go and beat Jordan by four goals on the last day, which is something that we're not saying is likely.
00:12:53
Speaker
That's unlikely. But if a rock at that point, And Korea's fine. And Jordan gets to say a one, one. Right. Then it's all wide open. Then it's, then it's on and they can do that. And I think that would be, you know wishful thinking the scenario that we would really get to find out between Jordan and Iraq, who's better. And it's a little more open. Obviously Jordan have the headstart.
00:13:15
Speaker
Yeah, I feel pretty good about the 75, maybe even a little more just because of the scenarios
Group C Drama in Asian Qualifiers
00:13:20
Speaker
here. But let's see. i also think that, again, Jordan Oman, it was 4-0 last time. There's never an easy away trip. We know we know that. But hey they should be able to skate to a 1-0 by the skin of their teeth at worst.
00:13:36
Speaker
Right. And also quickly on South Korea, even if they do somehow get it wrong against Iraq, and that game is in Basra and Iraq, so it's ah a whole match for Iraq. They have a whole match against Kuwait on the back end. So because of that, we feel like South Korea, that even if they you know continually do bad things, they'll still be okay.
00:13:53
Speaker
Group C has been where the chaos has been in Asian qualifying from the start. Japan have qualified, and of note here, they've left some big-named European-based players at home. We'll see a lot of that, I think, around with teams that have less to play for.
00:14:06
Speaker
End of a long club season. Leave those guys at home. Let them rest up for what will be a big year, as Amit touched upon in the open. Australia sits second in this group. They are three points ahead of Saudi Arabia. The goal differential being where it is at the moment, saudi Australia, i should say, have a plus seven goal differential.
00:14:23
Speaker
Saudi Arabia have a minus two goal differential. That means that if Australia can beat Japan on Thursday in Perth, they're all but qualified. It would take a massive loss against Saudi Arabia in the last match for them to go out.
00:14:36
Speaker
If they don't beat Japan and Saudi Arabia can get at least a point against Bahrain, that would set up a head-to-head showdown for a spot in Jeddah on Tuesday. That is the first part of the drama.
00:14:47
Speaker
The second part of the drama centers on what on earth is going to happen in this group as it relates to what will honestly be third, fourth, third and fourth, and the two spots advancing into the next round. Because in that situation, we have Indonesia, Bahrain, and China who are fighting it out.
00:15:03
Speaker
Indonesia on nine points, Bahrain and China each on six points. Indonesia play China in Jakarta on Thursday. Bahrain, meanwhile, hosts Saudi Arabia in that previously mentioned match on Thursday. And then on Tuesday, Indonesia have to visit Japan, while Bahrain and China will square off in Chongqing.
00:15:19
Speaker
It's all right there for Indonesia, Mitt, but let's start with Australia and Saudi Arabia. We have backed Australia really throughout the entirety of this process. It now comes down to getting results in crunch time.
00:15:30
Speaker
Saudi Arabia have only scored four goals in the entirety of this round. Do Australia get it done against a changed Japan team on Thursday, or will they wait and have to get it done away against Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, or will they not get it done at all?
00:15:46
Speaker
This is still, i know we've had some clarity. And again, just just to start with the handicapping and then explain, I think Australia will be fine here. And I think the standings will kind of stay the way they are.
00:15:58
Speaker
Yep. But it's just so hard to predict. what Australia versus non-A team Japan looks like. Because certainly the you know the players we know aren't as good. And Australia's players are solid.
00:16:12
Speaker
What's the motivation? i don't know. Japan is just not really the type of team that even with a bad or lesser squad to mail it in. right And then also Australia just don't play a style that can like...
00:16:25
Speaker
take a game to you, like, okay, Australia controls the game. They're still banging in 30 crosses and hoping they get a big man header. And then they can sit on it. And certainly, like, certainly like i would back them to protect a lead that they got against Rotated Japan, but...
00:16:41
Speaker
not to get in the first place. So um I'm not so sure that they're going to get the result they need. But I'm also not sure that Saudi Arabia is going to go to Bahrain and get what they need to keep up or really make Australia sweat.
00:16:55
Speaker
That's hard in its own rate right. You know what the Bahrain team looks like. They're sitting back and you got to break them down. and And then if we're if you're saying, well, maybe Australia slips up.
00:17:08
Speaker
Maybe Saudi Arabia slips up. Could it three points for Indonesia in front of 77,000 at home? Open the door just for a little a little final day chaos? Will Australia and Saudi Arabia draw? That's the dream. That's the dream, right? would a Was that 77,000 number, was that fans in attendance or percentage humidity in Jakarta for that? Both, both. that Yeah, it's going to be something.
00:17:33
Speaker
um ah you know Obviously, ah you know we both we both love the Indonesia story. That would be awesome. I just think that i there's two things that you could talk yourself into happening to lead to some real chaos.
00:17:45
Speaker
But again, I go back to the original handicap where Australia should be fine. There's just some things along the way is someone's to slip up outside of Australia. And even then they get into the final day against Saudi Arabia.
00:17:58
Speaker
Yes, they're going to have to you know be on the road. But Saudi Arabia just have not in this cycle proved that they can – do the biggest things they need to do. Yeah, like, so if we put the whole Australia-Japan conversation aside, we put the Saudi Arabia-Borraine conversation aside, worst case scenario for Australia is this is coming down to a head-to-head matchup with Saudi Arabia, and you're probably backing Australia in that situation regardless, right? Like, you're not generally worried about that.
00:18:25
Speaker
So because of that, I think Australia are a pretty safe bet to finish in second. Saudi Arabia should finish at least moving on to the next round. Now let's move to to to our boys from Indonesia, Amit.
00:18:37
Speaker
That is such a big match against China on Thursday because you do not want this coming down if you're Indonesia to an away match against Japan on the last day where China and Bahrain are playing head-to-head at more or less the same time, knowing that if they are to get a result, you know, a win, they could pass you head-to-head.
00:18:56
Speaker
So that is a big, big game for Indonesia on Thursday. That is going to be some of the scenes of this cycle. You know what that crowd is going to be like. Can Indonesia handle that moment and put the ball in the back of the net?
00:19:06
Speaker
At the end of the day, that's what this comes down to, right? Yeah, I think it's going to be a thrilling game because, you know, Indonesia have shown that they are might be better than China. But the pressure, like you said, is going to get to them. The pressure is on them.
00:19:19
Speaker
um And certainly China will neither of us, you know, rate them very highly. I think it's the type of game where if Indonesia huffs and puffs. just a little too much and leaves the door open, it could get really... ah yeah It could go poorly, and they could have to be chasing, and and things could stop ah you know snowball. so This is going to be a really good game, really fun game.
00:19:41
Speaker
Can they score? i think they've shown that They're better at, you know, huffing and puffing than China, certainly. um But maybe China are going in, you know, with house money and that helps them.
00:19:54
Speaker
Right. How do you how do you kind of factor that all in? Yeah. So it's interesting because the way that the gold differential is situated here, if China were to draw this game with Indonesia, they would still be three points back and they would be seven back on gold differential.
00:20:08
Speaker
which means going into the last day, China would need to beat Bahrain and Indonesia would need to lose to Japan and they would need to swing seven goals. That's a lot of goals for a team that simply can't score in China. I know that you would be counting on Japan to maybe do a lot of that work for you.
00:20:23
Speaker
And there's a scenario, yes, in which Indonesia things really snowball and they lose five nil and whatever. But I think there it is probably pretty high motivation here for China to need to go get three points. But that said,
00:20:35
Speaker
They're not going to go get the three points in the marating fashion that we would want them to do it. They're going to sit back and, like you said, let the pressure get to Indonesia and try and hit out on the counter and take the two and a half chances they create.
00:20:47
Speaker
I really, really want Indonesia to to get this done, mainly because I think they've just provided a lot more to the the the entertainment level in this group than China and barein Bahrain certainly have.
00:20:59
Speaker
But there's no doubt that this is a massive, massive stage for them. And it will be very exciting to see how it all plays out. And it could set up a very dramatic last day, right? Where the results play to where Bahrain, in China, which kicks off 25 minutes after the Japan-Indonesia match.
00:21:14
Speaker
That match could be drawing with a half hour to go. And whoever wins it can advance. And that would just set up chaotic back and forth soccer where the team that if they somehow draw Indonesia would go through. ah I'm just talking myself into great dramatic situations now.
00:21:30
Speaker
It's going to be crazy. I mean, this this has always been the silliest group a little bit. yeah So I think they'll have some something special for us ah in store on Tuesday morning. i ah I enjoyed the the Indonesia pipe dream straight up qualify scenario that you painted for me.
00:21:47
Speaker
i don't you know You know where I found that? It's ESPN.com. The headline. There's a whole story on ESPN saying they're dreaming of you know the scenario where they could go all the way through. And I was...
00:21:58
Speaker
little skeptical. You know, I was trying to try to see if the writer of that article had been listening to this podcast, but ah you know, if if they want to believe, sure. It's fun. Let's settle for the second. Let's settle for the next round guys. we We'd be happy
South American Qualifiers Overview
00:22:10
Speaker
with that.
00:22:11
Speaker
Let's switch now a bit and talk about the convo Royal rumble, which continues its sputtering towards the finish. Argentina have qualified Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, and Columbia.
00:22:22
Speaker
are all in a situation where they need to pretty much just avoid disaster and they will join Argentina at the World Cup. admit, you and I feel confident in all of them, and a lot of that comes from the fact that we don't feel confident in the teams that are chasing them to outrun them over four matches.
00:22:37
Speaker
Part why tricky fixtures, though. I'll just throw that out there. We'll touch on that later. That leaves us, Amit, with a Venezuela-Bolivia head-to-head matchup for seventh. And guess what? Those two teams meet on Friday night in Venezuela. It's as big as it gets in CONMOBILLE World Cup qualifying.
00:22:53
Speaker
It's two teams that didn't think they'd ever have a chance to make the World Cup from CONMOBILLE qualifying, playing for what is probably a spot in the playoffs. That's a fun one, Amit. This is what it all comes down to for a lot of takes. No, but for, you know, two countries that are really, really trying to do something special here. so yeah The pressure is going to be on. This is going to be a lot of ah football. a lot of football happening in this game. but And a lot dark arts happening at the same time. A lot less of football, actually, when you really get down to brass tacks.
00:23:27
Speaker
This is going something. This is going to be something. um It's going to be super emotional, super charged. I think also, you know, the bounces are going to be crazy. Venezuela. I love to say they're good, and I certainly think they are a better team than Bolivia.
00:23:40
Speaker
But at the end of the day, if you kind of look at their highs in this cycle and in the the tournament last year, yeah the Copa America, they kind of got some fortuitous red cards that's kind of powered them here.
00:23:52
Speaker
Bolivia, you know, the fact that they're even here, wow, what a cycle, historic cycle. They've also just had some ridiculous goals from distance. Like, it's almost – I'm almost like – who are the soccer gods favoring in this one? Because like you can try to handicap it, but it's really going to be two things. One, if you get a big bounce, can you, can you win?
00:24:10
Speaker
Or two, can you not lose your head? Because certainly both teams will be trying to convince the other to lose their head. I know, I know Venezuela is trying to do that. And certainly Bolivia is going to be ready for, for that in that sense.
00:24:22
Speaker
The other thing is like, Yes, Venezuela can use the ball. Yes, they can get it to their wingers. Yes, they have an idea. Their defense is bad. And Bolivia also is not trying to, like, undo them with some great, great...
00:24:36
Speaker
you know, solve the defense. They're just going to get the ball sprint and be like, Oh, you gave us, you know, a little space, 25 yards of goal. It doesn't matter an altitude or not. We're go to test your keeper. We're going to test your backline.
00:24:46
Speaker
Cause you don't, they're really bad at transition defending, especially it's finally poised. And it's, you know, I sure. I don't know what I would go with, whatever the betting markets say. I don't know the time in my head. I imagine Venezuela are slight favorites here, but this is just going to be dumb, stupid fun.
00:25:02
Speaker
Yeah, and so there's some interesting points here. I think you got a very good general overcap of of what to overcap. That's not a word. Recap, overview. I just merged the two together and and made a new word. So sure, whatever. We'll go with it.
00:25:16
Speaker
ah Of what we can expect from that match. But there's a couple of points that I think are important to point out here. If Venezuela will win, they're pretty much good in the race for seventh. It's it's hard to envision but Bolivia beating them by five points because of the way the goal differential is over three matches.
00:25:31
Speaker
And they would also put pressure on any of the stragglers from two to six, right? They play Uruguay on Tuesday. They play Colombia in June. There's some head-to-head matches between those teams. If Venezuela win, there's still a scenario in which they could be dreaming of making the World Cup outright.
00:25:46
Speaker
If Bolivia can simply scrap a point, though, six points at home, and they still have two matches at home left, obviously, right? They play Chile at home on Tuesday, and then they will play a what we can only imagine will be a fairly rotated Brazil side at home in September.
00:26:02
Speaker
Six points in those matches might just get them into that seventh place spot, and that's only with a point here. Obviously, if they win, they're in a significantly better spot. That omit leads me to suggest that Bolivia will probably come into this match with the out mindset of, if we get a point out of this, we'll take our chances, we'll go to the altitude, and we'll let the cards fall as they may, as far as the altitude plus Venezuela for.
00:26:25
Speaker
Whereas Venezuela, admit, have a lot at stake here because not only can they pretty much guarantee themselves seventh with win, they can also talk themselves into a situation where, hey, you know, we win this.
00:26:36
Speaker
Uruguay go and they lose against Paraguay. We're three points back of Uruguay and we play them head-to-head on Tuesday. There's a lot at stake here for Venezuela in this match, and I think we should expect it to play out along those lines. Venezuela will look to hit out on the counter. That's what they're going to try to do.
00:26:51
Speaker
But the point is big for Venezuela, and three would be massive. The point, excuse me, would be big for Bolivia, and the three would be massive for Venezuela. Yeah, I certainly think Venezuela should be talking themselves into potentially catching one of the six teams in front of them or a few of them in front of them.
00:27:08
Speaker
um And honestly, you said Uruguay. Yes, they have that fixture on Tuesday. Like you said, Paraguay's got tricky fixtures. And if any team was ripe to slow down just a little bit after getting all the bounces, it would be Paraguay, right? I'm sure we'll talk about that in a second.
00:27:23
Speaker
You know, I think this is a great opportunity for Venezuela. I think, you know, they've also certainly had their mental ups and downs. We've seen this Venezuela team falter in World Cup qualifying down the stretch before.
00:27:35
Speaker
ah They feel that way. I know they feel that way. The whole country feels that way. But also you can frame it like, look, we we made it to June of 2025. We have a home game against Bolivia.
00:27:46
Speaker
We win this and we're we're we're in great shape. Everything that we want is right there. You know, I think this is the what's been different so far through, you know, 14 match days in a tournament is they've had a little more special sauce.
00:28:02
Speaker
ye You just tap into that well one more time, right? Again, neither of us are saying we understand what will or could happen in this game. But you just got to like those kinds of all the little extracurriculars for Venezuela, you think.
00:28:15
Speaker
If ever there was a time for a big Solomon Rondon goal, it's this, right? like Well, yes, I agree. You know you you need it. But also, I was going to say, if you were going to tell me how this game went, I'm taking like a handball penalty kick for Venezuela in the 80th plus minute by Big Sol.
00:28:33
Speaker
Oh, man. that Imagine the pressure on that penalty in that moment, though, right? oh Yeah. Yeah. Don't even want to think about it personally. ah Hopefully i admit this window is when we can finally be done with Peru and Chile.
00:28:45
Speaker
I honestly, anything but four points and probably six and they've got to be done, done, but the math just is still there that we have to keep talking about them because if they could somehow, again, and this sounds wild to say for two teams that have combined for four wins in 28 matches, if they could just somehow get hot down the stretch, they're not completely out of this, but they're not going to be able to get hot down the stretch.
00:29:06
Speaker
Part why, as I said a bit, they've got tough fixtures here. They play Uruguay at home. They play Brazil away. That could very easily be zero points. Is there anybody from this two to six race that we should be worried about? It feels like 24 points is probably going to be more than enough because that would require Venezuela to win three times over the last four matches.
00:29:28
Speaker
Yeah, i'm I'm a little worried about Colombia because of the points. But again, I think home against Peru, they should be fine. The team, honestly, I'm worried about is Paraguay because of the fixtures this round. You said 24. They could be stuck at 21 with two losses because they have to play Uruguay and Brazil.
00:29:45
Speaker
I know Brazil have been... the sloggiest of slogs this entire time. And, you know, I don't think this is a podcast to talk about them that much. Maybe, maybe on the the return fixture of the World Cup after dark, you can kind of discuss their whole bit right now, but Yeah, I mean, they're two better teams than them.
00:30:01
Speaker
They're two better teams of them. Paraguay could absolutely be sitting on 21 and have Venezuela on 18 or 19 heading into the last day and certainly be you know really sweating out 6th or 7th and maybe have to go to playoff.
00:30:14
Speaker
I think we'll get a little – someone will. Someone will. I would most likely put it Paraguay.
UEFA Qualifiers and Key Matches
00:30:19
Speaker
Yeah, and then then Colombia, but again – Peru really should be three points for them and they should be up to 23 and fine. Yep.
00:30:27
Speaker
And then at that point, you're feeling pretty good about things. We haven't, as you said, a admit we haven't mentioned Brazil, Carlo Ancelotti making his Brazil debut as manager. The long rumored, long awaited wait is over.
00:30:37
Speaker
Brazil have a foreign manager for the first time. We can talk about what we see from them. I think that's probably a better conversation, as you said, on the return fixture, but I, there's an intriguing kind of new air around Brazil.
00:30:50
Speaker
we will see how much of a difference the manager can make because the players are still exactly the same. but Carlo Ancelotti didn't get to pick any different players than the ones that have been picked. You know, there's some French players that are different, et cetera, et cetera.
00:31:01
Speaker
ah So let's see what Brazil have. Some some interesting matches for them this window. They go to Quito to play Ecuador on Thursday, and then they have a whole match against Paraguay on Tuesday. Anything else on Convable? I feel like we're that those are the stakes. that That's what's up for grab here. Let's see what happens.
00:31:18
Speaker
Yeah, we didn't really talk about Uruguay too much. I don't think there's really anything to add there. I think they're just kind of rolling along. yeah um Yeah, I mean, it's the we we highlighted the biggest games. It's going to be fun.
00:31:29
Speaker
And the one of the downsides entertainment-wise is with such a long standard format is by now we have a pretty good sense and with the also the extra teams ah qualifying, it's it's less drama.
00:31:42
Speaker
As we've always said, imagine this group of 10 teams with only four getting automatic bids. It'd be really, really fun. But because of that little less drama, that's okay. At least there's some things to hang on.
00:31:54
Speaker
For sure. right, let's go across the pond to UEFA qualifying in Europe. We're still missing half the teams here who won't kick off until September. We've got Nations League matches in UEFA. But there are some legitimately big matches to come in this window. Let's start on Friday, i admit, with a pair that are really interesting to me. The Czech Republic will play Montenegro.
00:32:14
Speaker
Both teams bag six points in the March window. That means that they are both six points clear of Croatia, who have yet to start their qualifying campaign. A huge head-to-head matchup this in the fight for the teams who will be playing for second, which is a spot in the playoff, and the chance to be the top pressure putter on Croatia, as I so eloquently worded it just now.
00:32:33
Speaker
And then a bit a real massive matchup between Norway and Italy in Oslo on Friday. This is not an easy start for Italy. This is the first game of their qualification cycle. Norway are already on six points. If Italy lose this game, the margin for error is pretty much nothing in regards to finishing first and qualifying directly.
00:32:50
Speaker
That could put them again in a playoff conversation like we saw in 2020. Norway, Italy, a legitimately big match early on. And I think it can kind of fly under the radar because you think, oh Italy, they've got a lot of time.
00:33:02
Speaker
If Norway can continue to play at that level, there's not a lot of time if Italy don't win this match. Yeah, I think you framed it really well. This is going to be one of the really fun games. And, you know, obviously Italy has a talent ah advantage. But if you look, you know, Norway's got a few a few really talented players um up top in midfield, a few stars. And Italy is not really a star-driven team, right? They're much more, you know, just um a bunch of guys that play role –
00:33:33
Speaker
oh role players that do their roles really well in Syria. So I think this could be, this could be really fun game. And certainly we should see some goals. I, you know, I still back Italy slightly, but this one's going be awesome. I think because Norway also is one of those teams that, you know, haven't really been, been, been the world cup in a while and they could, you know, feel that, feel that moment. And Italy obviously have had their issues in their own sense. So that's going to be good.
00:34:04
Speaker
Montenegro, I want to buy it, but the squad is just just not there. Not where you need it to No, and and again, one-off, anything can happen. So, um you know, you can't you can't write them off. But Czech Republic is... is is He's a little more guys in this team. The Montenegro really does not have anyone.
00:34:23
Speaker
hum Yeah, you've got 35-year-old Stefan Jovatic. Like, all right, that's it. There's really not a lot else. So I think – I think Czech Republic can ken pull this through, but we'll see. I mean, also, i know you know Croatia, like you said, hasn't even played. When do they join?
00:34:45
Speaker
Late, like – No. So they they start this window, but they start this window by playing first up against Gibraltar at at Gibraltar and then a big Croatia Czech Republic game that we'll get to in a minute. Yeah. yeah We'll come back there. So, all right. That's a good point.
00:35:00
Speaker
ah Quick one. How many players in the Italy squad have more than 10 international goals? One. One player in the Italy squad. Yeah, we've talked about their nine problem before, but that's yeah a great example why.
00:35:14
Speaker
It's Nicola Varela who has exactly 10. So they have nobody that has scored more than 10 goals, and they have one that has scored double digits. Raspidori has eight. Moise Keane has seven. Rattegi has six. They're going to have to find goals somewhere because you know who's on the other end. It's Holland and Sorloth, and those guys have scored goals for Norway.
00:35:31
Speaker
It's a really, really intriguing match that I'm actually legitimately really looking forward to. on Friday, that game in Oslo. On Saturday, Finland will play the Netherlands in Helsinki. It's probably not that big of a deal. I think you would just kind of expect the Netherlands to to get the job done there, but it's worth mentioning because of where these teams are in the standings. Finland have ah banked four points already. Poland sit atop the group of six.
00:35:54
Speaker
These teams that start late admit they are the better teams. They should get the job done and score the points, but it is a weird situation when you haven't played a game and there's teams that are two, three games ahead of you already.
00:36:06
Speaker
Totally fair. i'm um it's It's very early to say this and not but the podcast to do this maybe. But um i'm I'm buying some Netherlands stock for 2026. okay I know we always say they're the poster child. We've done this. you know This is going to be our third World Cup of World Cup.
00:36:20
Speaker
The quarterfinal poster child. The quarterfinal poster child is Netherlands. And I just got to say I like this squad a lot. I like the squad a lot. um and And partially it's because Van Dyke still has a year or two left of that prime.
00:36:35
Speaker
But Van De Ven is is he's amazing. Denzel Doomfries is now the best. out He's been an outstanding outside back his whole career. They just got pieces all flashing together. I'm really i'm really liking this team.
00:36:48
Speaker
I think they can they could get a gear that if their coquiciveness and they've always played kind of weird formations comes through, they can get a gear. Again, we'll We'll hit more on the big hitters in Europe. That's not what we're supposed to be talking about in June 2025.
00:37:02
Speaker
But they're playing here. They've entered the fray. And i'm just I'm just planting a flag now. i like it. So watch. Finlay will beat them. And you can come and rass me up all you want. They'll look really silly. like No mention for Corinthians star Memphis Depay in the Netherlands squad? I mean, oh, well.
00:37:21
Speaker
He's always had the talent. it ta yeah guess it is hey yeah There go. Belgium also admit they're in that same category of big teams making their debut. They play North Macedonia on Friday, Wales on Monday.
00:37:32
Speaker
Those are the two teams that have started hot in the group that Belgium ran. I'm trying to find the letter for it. There's a... We're going all the way to L in in Europe. There's a lot of letters to try to keep track of. That's group J, ah North Macedonia and Wales, each on four points.
00:37:45
Speaker
Belgium, if they win both of those games, they can really stake their claim to finishing at the top of that group. But they're worth keeping an eye on because those are two of the trickier games that they will face in the match. And then I talked about it in it.
00:37:56
Speaker
as we switch the calendar over to Monday, that Croatia-Czech Republic match, it's a big follow-up to the cro to the Czech Republic-Montenegro match. No fans at home for Croatia. That could be an advantage for Czech Republic. like So that's a big match to watch out for on Monday because
CONCACAF Qualifiers and Group Battles
00:38:10
Speaker
that will really help us tell a lot of the story in that group, which for those of you keeping track at home is Group L. It's the last one.
00:38:19
Speaker
ah But that will do a lot to determine what we can expect over the the stretch run in that group, right? Yeah, and I, again, i think Croatia is slightly better than Czech Republic, but I think this Czech Republic squad is is solid enough.
00:38:33
Speaker
And Croatia, you know, They haven't really, yeah, I mean, the bit is the bit on them. they They are actually, in fact, old. And some, at some point, you know, I think... Czech Republic might just have enough legs in the midfield to challenge them.
00:38:47
Speaker
Again, they they have some talent up top too, Patrick Sheik. the The thing though is even with the talent in Czech Republic, and they don't have really have that complete game gear in them versus, you know, Croatia are obviously so experienced.
00:39:02
Speaker
Yeah. It's they could, they could ah dominate the game and still struggle to to finish. And I think that could be what we see, but they're going to make a game of it. It'll be tough on the road. um Honestly, I mean,
00:39:15
Speaker
isn't this, if Czech Republic is going to do this, right, this is one of the bigger games they might need to have? Right, that's the thing. These group, Europe is such a sprint, right? This is basically, it's like a Champions League group stage, which I guess doesn't exist anymore, but it's a double round robin, right? There's just not a lot of time for...
00:39:33
Speaker
just to say, ah, it's fine. You know, the good teams, they'll figure it out. There's not a whole lot of figuring it out time that gets baked in here. And so because of that, one big result can really put the pressure on in this group stage. And and that's what I'm really intrigued about with the matches that we've touched on.
00:39:47
Speaker
Finally, I did want to mention on Tuesday, Finland and Poland are playing in Helsinki. If there's a scenario in which Finland are putting pressure on on Poland for second or Netherlands for first, it's got to happen here in this window. They have two home matches.
00:39:59
Speaker
Poland, a bit, they're not a team that we like, but they are pretty clearly the second best team in this group, and we expect them to slowly but surely get their stuff done. Finland and Poland is the the sleeper tonic of World Cup after dark. Yeah, I mean, look. but ah if Finland are going to make it interesting, we certainly would welcome a Finland challenge Of course. Because that would be fantastic.
00:40:22
Speaker
Unfortunately, as drab and dreary as the Poland squad is, Finland is worse. Yeah. There's not really a way around that. I'm sorry to say. Lots of other European matches going on. a lot of them not particularly relevant or interesting. Austria, Romania on Saturday probably deserves a mention as well. We've talked up. Yeah.
00:40:42
Speaker
Said that that's a, an open group, that group H Bosnia and Herzegovina currently topping it on six. So that's probably one more that you should keep an eye on. Again, UEFA qualifying will really kick off in September when all the teams are in action.
00:40:54
Speaker
And let's close the show today a bit by talking about our friends from CONCACAF. um mean It's unfortunately going to be time to say goodbye to 18 of our closest friends. They are generally all Caribbean islands. The top two teams in each of these groups will advance. They will advance to 14 groups that start in September.
00:41:09
Speaker
That's where the big money is going to be made. Let's admit, go quickly group by group to kind of refresh us from where we stand. Because again, it's been over a year since we've had CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. And this starts the cycle towards kicking on September, October, November when things will get really interesting in this confederation.
00:41:25
Speaker
Again, the US, Canada, and Mexico all qualify automatically. That leaves three spots and two spots in the playoffs for the teams that are left over. We'll start quickly in Group A. Honduras are cruising in this group. They will continue to cruise.
00:41:38
Speaker
a bit This is a sloppy, sloppy fight for second place. The Cayman Islands deciding not to go to Cuba a year ago because they were worried about their players not being able to get visas to travel to the U.S. s and continue studying has had a big impact on this group because Cuba currently sit in second on three points.
00:41:54
Speaker
The three points that they picked up are only via the fact that the Cayman Islands didn't travel. Cayman Islands in third on three. Antigua and Barbuda in fourth on one. Bermuda on fifth in on one as well. This group is completely wide open.
00:42:06
Speaker
You can convince me that any of the four teams will finish in second. As I talked to friend of the show and resident Cockney Cap expert, John Arnold, earlier this week, whoever finishes second in this group is going to be the worst team in the next round. So it's maybe not all of that relevant, but this is the kind of wide open, sloppy, breakout the abacus permutation type soccer that we love.
00:42:25
Speaker
Are you backing Cuba or Cayman Islands here? I have no idea who I'm backing in this group because it's that bad. like I think I might be backing Antigua and Barbuda, who were the second-seeded in this group.
00:42:38
Speaker
I don't know. I don't know. I'm excited to see what they're going to do. Let's see where the goals fall. yeah Yeah. No, I agree with our friend John. The second-place team here is going to be the – the worst one in the next round.
00:42:50
Speaker
And that's okay. Bermuda came in islands on Wednesday is actually a legitimately big match. As far as the Wednesday four or five matches are concerned. And team of Barbuda play Cuba on Friday. That's actually a big, like again, big is, is, is relative here, but right. If you're looking for drama and conquer calf in this round, this, this is ah a big place of where you can find it.
00:43:10
Speaker
I have no idea who, who to handicap here. You have no idea who to handicap here. Let's just sit back and enjoy some, some, some Caribbean Island football, shall we? that how I'm good? Yeah, of course.
00:43:21
Speaker
Group B, Costa Rica are cruising. They have Miguel Herrera as their manager. Keeler Navas is back. Those are fun stories that we'll hopefully touch on at another time. Trinidad and Tobago, St. Kitts and Nevis, they feel like the teams who are fighting out for second.
00:43:33
Speaker
They meet on Friday in Port of Spain. That is obviously going to be a big match, especially considering that Trinidad and Tobago then have to go on and play Costa Rica. They would love to open up a four-point gap to St. Kitts and Nevis and really finish it off.
00:43:46
Speaker
That's where the drama is going to be in Group B. Moving on quickly to Group C, Curacao and Haiti are cruising. There's really not a lot of space for anybody to make a charge. St. Lucia and Aruba are both five points back with just six points left to play.
00:43:59
Speaker
Curacao and Haiti will play on the last day, but the odds would suggest that both of those teams will go through cleanly. In Group D, Panama are cruising on top. Nicaragua will be if they can beat Guyana in a match on Friday. That is the big one to watch out for here. Montserrat and Belize sit in fourth and fifth.
00:44:17
Speaker
As we move towards Group E, Jamaica are the team that are cruising in first place here. Guatemala hosts the Dominican Republic on Friday in what is a big one. Guatemala currently topped the group on six points with a plus nine goal differential.
00:44:28
Speaker
Dominican Republic in third on three. The long, long, long-awaited... I don't know how up-to-date you are on this saga, Amit, but the long, long, long-awaited official debut of Mariana Diaz, former, like, way former Real Madrid wonder star for the Dominican Republic, is finally coming in this window.
00:44:46
Speaker
there's a lot of intrigue in La República Dominicana about that one. I won't ask you to to to try and handicap this Dominican Republic-Guatemala match, but it should be fun on Friday, right? Might be the one of the best games of the window here in CONCACAF.
00:45:00
Speaker
ah Can't tell you what will happen, but certainly i don't think Guatemala is immune to getting punked. So that should make it good. And Group F, this is also where some drama is coming in because we've got a three-way fight for the top two between Suriname, Puerto Rico, and El Salvador.
00:45:15
Speaker
That comes via the fact that Puerto Rico took a point off El Salvador last June. That means that Suriname sit atop the group on six. Puerto Rico sit on second and fourth, and El Salvador sit on third and fourth.
00:45:25
Speaker
St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Anguilla are also going to be making up the numbers here. It could play a role because Suriname and Puerto Rico play on Friday. El Salvador and Suriname play on Tuesday, and Puerto Rico have what you would expect, Amit, to be a banked three points against St. Vincent and the Grenadines to come.
00:45:41
Speaker
El Salvador have what should be banked three points against Anguilla on Saturday. This is an interesting three-way fight for the top two in one of these teams. don't know if it's fair to say a good team will be going home, but a team that could potentially make noise in the next round will be going home.
00:45:55
Speaker
Between El Salvador, Puerto Rico, and Suriname, who is El Salvador playing first? El Salvador play on Guila on Saturday. Amit, I want to ask you a quick question. Here's our slate for Saturday in CONCACAF. It is all the fifth-seeded teams.
00:46:08
Speaker
hosting the seeded teams. So we have Anguilla at home against El Salvador, Cayman Islands at home against Honduras, the British Virgin Islands at home against Jamaica, Aruba at home against Haiti, Bahamas at home against Costa Rica, and Belize at home against Panama.
00:46:22
Speaker
Over under 1.5 goals for our fifth seeded teams. That's a great line, Austin. I'm going to take
00:46:33
Speaker
um I'm going to take the over. I think between Belize and Aruba, we can get to two.
Conclusion and Future Podcast Preview
00:46:40
Speaker
Okay, and over under like 15.5 for our Over. How many games are there? Six? Yeah, you got to get to 20, man. Come on. All right. Sorry. Sorry. Bad line. Bad line. But you're whatever I'm sitting at, you're taking the over is what you're telling yeah Yeah. Pretty much. Yeah. So again, if we bank those points that we talked about, right? Let's bank the three for Puerto Rico against St. Vincent de Greda needs. Let's bank the three for El Salvador.
00:47:03
Speaker
Suriname have the difficult matches because they play the other two teams here. Those banked points would put Puerto Rico and El Salvador on seven each with Suriname on six. That's dramatic. It really comes with Suriname-Puerto Rico game on Friday if Suriname's going to have a chance because the other two teams are basically going to have points in the bank in their matches.
00:47:22
Speaker
So that's one that Suriname has to have. And yeah, I don't know. Well, then they have to go play El Salvador and try and win, right? like The downside is that they have two tough games. The upside is they have two opportunities to try and get something done.
00:47:37
Speaker
Yeah. don't know. Looking forward to Yeah. if they get If they get to nine and the other teams are at seven, yeah.
00:47:48
Speaker
They need to win one of them because they have the two-point head slot. like Jeremy DeLeon in the Puerto Rico squad. He's a a Real Madrid player in in their system. He's a guy that really impressed me a year ago. I'm excited to watch him play a again.
00:47:59
Speaker
The Puerto Rico team is fascinating because there's just like this mix of guys who are in Spanish lower divisions, are on big clubs, payrolls in lower divisions, and then they've got guys from DePaul University.
00:48:12
Speaker
And guys from Stetson who are in their squad. It's just a super eclectic mix of ah footballers that I'm really proud of and really excited to watch. Suriname, of course, they have a big Dutch influence. there's a lot of guys in the Dutch system, and they've been waiting for some big Dutch players or players with experience with the Netherlands national team to try and get some one-time switches. We'll see if those come through.
00:48:33
Speaker
So I'm excited for for those set of CONCACAF matches. You have to dig a little harder to find the drama there, but but we should get some so excitement from our friends there in CONCACAF. All right, Amit, another preview podcast done.
00:48:45
Speaker
Good action to come. Good action to come. It's heating up. And, you know, there are big hitters still coming. um And there's good matches coming in Africa, which we didn't talk yeah about. We know there are big hitters coming in Europe.
00:48:58
Speaker
Thankfully, you know, while some of the confederations um are are close to to wrapped up, there's some that, you know, there's still a lot of spots on. Africa taking a break. Obviously, this window, as you touched on, which is actually good because it means that there's less matches going on and we can focus the drama on somewhere else. all right. If you like what we do here at the World Cup After Dark Podcast, you can support us monetarily at patreon.com slash WCAD. For $3 a month, you get access to all of our exclusive shows and you get access to the World Cup qualification spreadsheet, which shows you kickoff times and how to watch information on
00:49:29
Speaker
all of the World Cup qualification matches that will be happening this window. You will certainly want to check that out. all right. For a minute, I'm Austin. We will see you guys on the back end when we recap everything that went down.