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WCAD 3-37: World Cup Ticket SZN
85 Plays10 days ago
Austin and Amit get together to preview a full slate of World Cup Qualifiers in October. The guys cover Africa's predicted final day drama, an Asian Fourth Round in desperate need of chaos, the games to watch in UEFA, and an intriguing group of games in CONCACAF.
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Transcript
Introduction and Overview of World Cup Qualifiers
00:00:01
Speaker
It's ticket punching season on the World Cup After Dark podcast. My name is Austin Miller. He is Amit Malik. Are you excited for this October international window, Amit? I could be more excited, Austin. This is the culmination of ah years of qualifying matches. And, you know, we're so close to the finish line in a lot of these regions. So this is this is what we do it for.
00:00:21
Speaker
Literally years. It's been two years since we started this cycle of World Cup qualification podcast. In this week's window, we will see 115 games played over six days. We will see at least nine World Cup tickets punched, with seven coming from Africa and two from Asia. We could have a couple more from UEFA and CONCACAF, but I wouldn't if those are particularly likely.
00:00:41
Speaker
And admit as we have learned so often in this World Cup cycle, we will also see a lot of World Cup dreams dashed. And that's when things really get real. Yeah, it's sad for those teams. You feel bad. But that's the, you know, both sides of the emotional spectrum is what it's all about as well.
Africa's World Cup Qualifying Drama
00:01:00
Speaker
On the agenda this October, we have the last two match days in what has been a crazy World Cup qualification cycle in Africa. We have the penultimate windows in CONCACAF and UEFA. And we also have the Asian fourth round. Yes, that's right. We're on round four of five in Asian qualifying.
00:01:15
Speaker
More on that in a bit. All right, Abit, let's start in Africa, where we hit the dramatic finish in CAF. So far, of the nine direct spots to the World Cup, two have been claimed by Tunisia and Morocco.
00:01:29
Speaker
Seven more will be handed out by the end of day on Tuesday, and we will also see four teams claim spots in the African playoff, which will then in turn give out one spot to the Intercontinental playoff.
00:01:41
Speaker
That's the headlines for this African region. I think Abit, Of the seven spots that we're going to see handed out in Africa over the next few days, I think we can categorize them in three ways.
00:01:52
Speaker
Let's start at the top with the easiest three. and These are the teams that are mathematically one win away. In Group A, we have Egypt, who will play Djibouti away in Morocco, and then Guinea-Bissau at home.
00:02:03
Speaker
One win from those, they punch their ticket to the World Cup. There's also a bunch of other permutations that work, but that's the simplest way to look at it. In Group D, we have Cape Verde, who will play a tricky match away in Tripoli against Libya, and then a home match against Eswatini.
00:02:16
Speaker
Again, one win, and they clinch a spot in the World Cup. And finally, in Group two we have Algeria, who will be playing a bit Somalia away, but in Algeria, because sure, that's how it works sometimes in African World Cup qualifying, and then Uganda at home.
00:02:29
Speaker
It's hard to envision a scenario, I think, in which any of those three teams miss the World Cup, but we're probably in agreement that Cape Verde has the trickiest slate, right? Yeah, the Libya away game is tough.
00:02:41
Speaker
You know Cameroon is right on your tail. and And partially the reason why it's the easiest is because, or the hardest, is because the other two are quite easy.
00:02:52
Speaker
yeah um Somalia are one of the the worst teams in the region. And there are a few, few bad teams in CAF, but Somalia are one of them with with one point.
00:03:05
Speaker
and And they're not really... ah It's in Algeria. So, you know, you could say, okay, they play Somalia, they play Uganda next. If Uganda are within three, and you know, i don't know, goal difference. You could talk yourself into it.
00:03:19
Speaker
It's tough to see that one. Same thing with Egypt-Jibouti, that game being played in Morocco. Again, Guinea-Bissau is close. And Egypt aren't like some world beaters, but Djibouti are again in that just that bad pocket. So...
00:03:33
Speaker
I think by default you say, okay, Livia could be tricky. I think, I think Kate Baird is going to feel some pressure. That's something to watch, but yeah, the other two are just a little too simple. So moving on from those three spots, which I think we can feel pretty confident we'll head that way. Again, it's important to keep an eye on Cape Verde, especially in that Libya away game, because then all the pressure would be on that whole match against Eswatini.
00:03:53
Speaker
Cameroon are hot on their tails, but they are also four points back, which means Cape Verde have to slip up twice. Yes, that's the big thing. So even if something happened at Libya, Eswatini at home, again, that's you're backing.
00:04:05
Speaker
Again, you you just need the three to get to seven ahead of. Yeah. The next category, Amit, are three teams that I think just they have to hold serve. That's how they make the World Cup. Win twice and you make the World a Cup. We start in Group B with Senegal.
00:04:18
Speaker
They had that dramatic come-from-behind win against DR Congo in the last window. They will play South Sudan away in Mauritania at home. They are being chased by that DR Congo team who will play Togo away in Sudan at home. They're two points behind.
00:04:31
Speaker
It felt like the big moment in this group was that Senegal-DR Congo game. Again, the matchups in this window... Chaos will happen because it always does in Africa, but it feels like Senegal should be able to get that open line.
00:04:44
Speaker
It does. It's just, it's a little too uncertain based on how both of these teams have been, not super reliable, but you've you kind of feel just vibes-wise that, like, Senegal have gotten over the hump for this difficult qualifying campaign.
00:05:00
Speaker
You're facing the two worst teams in the group. Yeah, it's a way to South Sudan, but holding serve is the best analogy. Like if you had said to Senegal, you get two home games to go to the or you get two games, the last two to go to the world cup against the two worst teams, right? How could you not get it done?
00:05:20
Speaker
I think they're going to be fine. And the goal differential is such that even if they're held to a draw, DR Congo is going to have to score a lot to to be able to pass them. In Group F, where the top two teams have only been in holding serve throughout this World Cup qualification cycle, Ivory Coast are one point ahead of Gabon.
00:05:36
Speaker
They will play the Seychelles away in Mauritius. Seychelles are in that Somalia-Jibouti category of actually very bad. And then they will play Kenya at home, which is a tricky little matchup because Kenya are the only team that have taken points off Ivory Coast so far who have yet to concede in this African qualification cycle.
00:05:52
Speaker
Gabon chasing one point behind. They have Gambia away, Burundi at home. These two teams have been the class of the group here, Amit. But I think we might get some last day drama. I think that Kenya match is kind of tricky for Ivory Coast.
00:06:03
Speaker
I agree because a draw yeah leaves you leaves you a little short if Gabon gets two wins and Gabon has the two easier fixtures. So if you're your Ivory Coast, you're penciling in, hey, I i gotta get six.
00:06:18
Speaker
Okay, CHL's sure, but You're happy you have Kenya at home and not having to go there, but Kenya's solid defensively going to make you work for it. And Ivory Coast, um they don't like, they can, but they're particularly having built themselves on a team that goes and takes games.
00:06:35
Speaker
Right. So I think they're going to have to show something. Yeah. Other than the magic is the Seychelles, which was an absolute blowout and will be an absolute blowout this time around. Like you said, I mean, Ivory coast haven't gone around scoring goals for fun in this Africa qualification cycle, right? Only 15 goals scored in eight matches played. And nine of those came against the Seychelles.
00:06:53
Speaker
They've played tight, toughly contested matches. They were held away against Gabon and Kenya. Nil Nil. They beat Gabon by the minimum one nil at home. It feels like we could get into the last half an hour of that Kenya match and things could still be in play. I still think I'm backing Ivory Coast, but I think there's going to be some drama here.
00:07:13
Speaker
I think so. I think you'll see what what you see in a lot of these games is that Ivory Coast will come out, put 15 really good minutes of pressure on Kenya, probably get two or three solid, maybe one great chance.
00:07:26
Speaker
You score one, the whole thing feels a lot easier. You don't, then you're going to have to get to that second wave, like you said, that comes the last 30 minutes. And that could be really fun, especially if you're scoreboard watching and ah Gabon has have done their part.
00:07:41
Speaker
There's certainly a scenario where Gabon slip up too and then Ivory Coast could just play their normal very effective soccer but yeah well but we have to monitor it.
00:07:54
Speaker
To your point Amit the last four matches for Ivory Coast in African qualification cycle a 1-0 win a away to Burundi in which they scored in the 16th minute a 1-0 home win against Gambia in which they scored in the 15th minute a 1-0 home win against Burundi in which they scored in the third minute and that 0-0 draw against Gabon that has them in pole position here. Again, the goals have been kind of hard to come by Ivory Coast.
00:08:16
Speaker
That, I think, is is a pressure point. Another pressure point, admit, comes in Group I, where Ghana, the team that we cannot trust in African qualification, have it all right in front of them, right? Two wins, and they make the World Cup.
00:08:26
Speaker
One win is probably enough, given how the goal differential is. They play the Central African Republic away in Morocco, and they play Comoros at home. The two teams chasing behind are Comoros and Madagascar.
00:08:37
Speaker
They will play head-to-head on Wednesday in Morocco in what is a home match for the Comoros. The winner gets the status as the best chaser and is in pole position for what could be a very important second-place finish.
00:08:48
Speaker
And then Madagascar will play Mali away to finish. Komoros, Imit, are not out of this yet. If they can somehow beat Madagascar and they can get Ghana to slip up against the Central African Republic, we could have a head-to-head showdown for that spot in the World Cup.
00:09:01
Speaker
I think we have to back Ghana here. You have to back them just because... i I think the best chance is Comoros getting to them on the last game with the chance to overturn it.
00:09:14
Speaker
But can we call Comoros versus Madagascar anything other than a coin flip? Like just in terms of what to expect? No, I mean, I think Madagascar are probably favored in that match. really Yeah, yeah. And so like... They were winners the first time they played. Yeah, I think the recipe for Ghana to miss is, like you said, a head-to-head matchup with Comoros on the last day that then goes wrong. But for that to happen, they have to slip up against the Central African Republic, which, I mean... It could happen.
00:09:40
Speaker
Great. You know what happened the last time those teams played? It was 4-3. Yeah, was 4-3. And Ghana, again, are coming off a window in which they drew against Chad, who were, again, one of the actual bad teams in Africa.
00:09:52
Speaker
you feel like Ghana should get it done, but you also feel like you can't trust. Yeah. They've earned the least amount of trust out of these three teams in this category because of their leaky defense.
00:10:03
Speaker
And I would just say to them, you know, don't have it be a one goal game with 20 minutes to go. They are more than talented enough to put... a two or three goal cushion if they attack and don't do anything silly. But again, easier said than done.
00:10:17
Speaker
And the other thing I would just say is even if it gets to that day, Comoros have a chance. Again, the Comoros win was like the ultimate fluky shot from distance win way back earlier when we were in this qualifying campaign.
00:10:31
Speaker
And so even with the vibes potentially being catastrophic for Ghana, if you could keep your head straight, you would say, All we have to do is beat Comoros at home. You'd still take that. All you have do is draw against Comoros. Yeah, so again, Ghana are in a good spot.
00:10:45
Speaker
And at this point, you know, we know the defense is what it is, but lean on where you're good at. Don't let african republics and Central African Republic like be in a close game. Just score like three goals and it'll be fine. Score four goals and maybe you'll still sweat it out, but we'll see. It'll be a little fun, I bet.
00:11:05
Speaker
And then the last group, Amit, deserves a category all are on its own, and that is pure, unadulterated chaos, and that is Group C, which has delivered from day one in African qualifying, even when African qualifying hasn't been going on, because our eagle-eared listeners from the September shows will remember that we told you that South Africa could be facing a points punishment for fielding an ineligible player in a match against Lesotho earlier in qualification.
00:11:29
Speaker
Well, Amit, that is exactly what happened. The FIFA hammer came down, South Africa were docked three points for fielding that ineligible player, and this group has now been thrown into chaos going into the final two match days with, I think, no fewer than four teams in with a legitimate shout to still finish in first.
00:11:46
Speaker
Benin now top the group on 14 points and a plus four goal differential. South Africa are in second with 14 points and a plus three goal differential. Presumptive favorites Nigeria in third with 11 points and a plus two goal differential.
00:12:00
Speaker
And Rwanda lurking in fourth with 11 points and a zero goal differential. On Friday, Lesotho will host Nigeria. Zimbabwe will host South Africa in South Africa.
00:12:12
Speaker
And Rwanda will play Benin. That will set up Tuesday's concluding matches, which will see South Africa host Rwanda and Nigeria host Benin. What do we make of this? i mean It is all wide open, and I think any of the four, I'd probably be pretty surprised if Rwanda gets it over the line.
00:12:29
Speaker
Any of Benin, South Africa, and Nigeria making the World Cup wouldn't surprise me at this point. Yeah, this is crazy. mean, has his hand on his head. I know this is ah is an audio medium. Yeah, but i'm I'm just perplexed. I'm truly perplexed. This is going to be super fun because anything can happen. I have just one note first.
00:12:47
Speaker
Is that South Africa's goal difference is at three? How did they adjudicate that that worked out? So that result was given three nil to Lesotho. So it wasn't just that South Africa lost the points. They also lost three goals of goal differential. Not ideal in this situation.
00:13:02
Speaker
Yeah, okay. So that that is a big part of it because Benin have the driver's seat on by one goal differential. Even then, all of that being said, i just don't know how this is going to shake out.
00:13:14
Speaker
my My gut instinct, again, we're we're trying to handicap. First of all, the preface is that this is going to be silly. Great. You got to tune into Group C. is that Nigeria have kind of walked in to their chance here after everything, right?
00:13:28
Speaker
They have and one of the easier fixtures on Friday, Lesotho. Okay, it's a way, but you can get that done. And then they've got the team in front of them in Benin, and it's all there for the taking for Nigeria.
00:13:40
Speaker
That being said, anytime you have said that about Nigeria, they fall the flat on their face with a disappointing draw, a disappointing goal conceded. my next one, I want to say South Africa.
00:13:52
Speaker
Again, they have the best fixtures, right? They've got Zimbabwe and Rwanda. Right. They to play Nigeria. They don't have to play Benin. There's nothing head to head for them. Win twice and rack up the goals and you're in a decent spot probably.
00:14:07
Speaker
Yes. And that goal difference really does matter. So yeah it's going to kind of see how much they can get against Zimbabwe, which, nice stroke of fortune for them is in South Africa in this window.
00:14:19
Speaker
That helps a lot. So I think if, ah, man. Okay. I think if you're goingnna handicap it, I would give South Africa the best chance for the fixtures and two home matches and the ability to overturn the goal differential.
00:14:33
Speaker
Then I would probably put Benin, even though Nigeria is the best team out of these three, because they can play for the draw too on that last day. Right. But they might need to be keeping up with South Africa. So,
00:14:46
Speaker
This is why the hand was on the forehead, Austin. I don't know how you try to figure this out. It's also worth pointing out here that the small teams in this group have gotten results, right? Zimbabwe haven't been a pushover. They've drawn four times in this group. Lesotho have nine points. Three of those were gifted to them by South Africa, but they've won twice in this group.
00:15:06
Speaker
Rwanda, again, are also not out of this. They have the head-to-head matchups in their favor, right? They played Benin in South Africa. If you win both of those matches, and chance and score enough, chances are Rwanda could finish it. right It's all there for everybody, and everybody's done something to everybody else at some point in this group.
00:15:23
Speaker
It's wild. Yeah, this is just going to be can't-miss stuff. I have a feeling Nigeria is going to have an opportunity to be the top of this group at some point on the final match day, and whether or not they take it is just...
00:15:39
Speaker
You're going have to see like it's going to be great. It's going to this is what this is the best kind of cat football. And equally important a bit, but no less confusing in this confederation is the fight for second place, because as we alluded to earlier, the top four teams in the second place table will advance the African playoff there. They'll fight it out for one spot in the intercontinental playoff. It's not the easiest way to make the World Cup, but it is a way to make the World Cup.
00:16:03
Speaker
That second place table omit is a complete and utter mess right now. Here's what we know. At least here's what I think I know. I think that either the Gabon or Ivory Coast, whoever ends up second place in that group, will probably be in good shape if they win at least one match. And I think they will probably win two matches.
00:16:19
Speaker
I think the second place team in Group D is Colt. That is the Morocco group that has been underperforming throughout the entirety of African Qualifications. From there, it's kind of a complete mess. Goal differential is going to matter.
00:16:30
Speaker
Right now, fourth and fifth is separated by two goals in goal differential. I think one slip up from anybody could could change everything 100%. Everybody is kind of still in with a shout here, and it's going to make a lot of these matches down the stretch that don't seem important, very important, because finishing second with the right amount of points and the right amount of goal differential extends your World Cup dream by a window.
00:16:50
Speaker
Yeah, so you've highlighted a bunch of teams, and I'm just going to go back to um Cameroon here. I think this is... Again, you just know that they they everyone's trying to get to this round, but Cameroon would especially be embarrassing to miss it, and they've got the fixtures to play themselves in.
00:17:07
Speaker
Yeah, they're trying to put pressure on their group on Cape Verde, but even then, they have high incentive to win twice and run it up, and I think they can do that. So, again, they're not in the spot, which means...
Asia's Path to the World Cup
00:17:20
Speaker
DR Congo or Burkina Faso or even I don't think the Madagascar Comoros team is safe here because of the way that like fixtures have broken out right like a dwell picture Madagascar and Comoros and that second place team is all of a sudden in trouble so the teams in six and seven are Namibia and Uganda I think those are harder asks here they each have to play tough fixtures It's not a game that matters for the team that's in first place, but still, and na maybe against a changed Tunisia, you're still backing Tunisia. Same with Uganda against Algeria.
00:17:47
Speaker
I think this probably comes down to Madagascar slash Comoros, DR Congo, Burkina Faso, and Cameroon. Five teams for three spots if we feel confident in that Gabon Ivory Coast group second place getting a spot.
00:18:00
Speaker
And I think this group C teams will also probably cannibalize each other and leave them short of the cut line here. Agree with that completely. And yeah yeah We said Cameroon's got good fixtures to try to jump.
00:18:14
Speaker
Who can they jump? i do I think Burkina Faso is in a good spot to not get jumped because they have easy fixtures. They avoided Egypt. They've got Sierra Leone, which, again, only two points behind them. Anything could happen, but Sierra Leone and Ethiopia, two fixtures you should get six points from, four points even 20 is probably they probably going to leave you right on the line. I think 20 is the number you should shoot for, right? Burkina Faso are on 15, so they need five, which would be two wins. Yeah, so the four doesn't get you there. I still feel okay for Burkina Faso. I'm looking at Madagascar Comoros being perhaps the fifth team out, unless...
00:18:58
Speaker
you know, Madagascar's gotta win that first game, even if they're not going for first to try to extend this thing to the next round. um And then the DR Congo fixtures are... Yeah, so DR Congo in this window, in that group, they will be playing Togo away, and then they will play Sudan at home. yeah so That's a tricky match. We've seen Sudan's results.
00:19:24
Speaker
Yeah, Togo's not ah not an easy one either. Again, you'd you'd hope for six. They're extremely motivated. So this is going to be a tough one to juggle. um I'm going to handicap Cameroon to sneak in, but it would be fascinating if they didn't.
00:19:39
Speaker
And the C team can't it probably is is cooked right, too, we're kind of thinking here.
00:19:50
Speaker
Yeah, I think when I look at it from my perspective, Oh man, I don't know. this is like I think two wins probably sends the majority of these teams into that next round, right? Like I think that's probably enough to get it done.
00:20:03
Speaker
And also a bit, this is Africa, right? Like I'm not discarding a possibility that a team is like, we need two more goals, but they don't know that they need two more goals or they think they need one.
00:20:15
Speaker
Anything could happen in this confederation. And I think we're both very excited for for this last window and and and how it's all going to play out here. all right, let's shift gears a bit and let's head to the round four in Asia where six teams will enter.
00:20:28
Speaker
Two will go to the World Cup. Two will go to the Asian playoff, which will give out one spot in the Intercontinental Playoff. And two teams will be out. The most elongated World Cup qualification cycle continues on.
00:20:40
Speaker
And i admit this is an interesting format. We have two three-team groups. Top team in the group goes to the World Cup. Second place to the Asian playoff. Third place is out. Group A, which oddly enough will be played in Qatar, features Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
00:20:54
Speaker
And Group B, which oddly enough will be played in Saudi Arabia, features Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Indonesia. I mean, this feels tailor-made for Qatar and Saudi Arabia. You needed a bailout backup.
00:21:04
Speaker
We giving it to you. They get the matches. each group is in their home country. And then of course they get the big rest advantage because it's three games in one week, essentially.
00:21:17
Speaker
And they get the first and the third game, which means that the teams they're playing have to play two games in four, three days, four days, three days, yeah two days rest in the middle. Yeah.
00:21:28
Speaker
Yeah. And that's just a massive, massive advantage. Um, you got hand it to, to Asian qualifying. This is, this is well done.
00:21:39
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, at least there is an Asian playoff so that these other teams aren't done. You look at the other four teams and respectively in Group UAE and Oman, can either of those teams overcome the advantage on top of the minor talent deficit?
00:21:58
Speaker
Say the same thing about Iraq and Indonesia. Part of that is if you're going to handicap it, can you put away the team in your middle game easy enough without having to exert too much energy because you just need to be up for that big game on this this the third window?
00:22:20
Speaker
You may be back Iraq to have the best shot here, but I think it's an uphill task for UAE, Iraq, or even Oman or Indonesia if they're going to do something. Yeah, I think the draw has been kinder to Qatar.
00:22:33
Speaker
I think UAE and Oman are probably two less dangerous teams. I know that Oman has a higher ranking than Indonesia, but based on what we've seen in qualifying, look, Oman shouldn't even be here. This should be Palestine. and We saw the whole penalty issue and all that.
00:22:46
Speaker
And I think Iraq are considerably better than the UAE is, right? So because of that, I think Qatar should probably be okay. But again, Qatar have been really bad in World Cup qualifying. You know who they called, Amit?
00:22:58
Speaker
Harken back to the very first season of the World Cup After Dark. They called World Cup After Dark legend Yuland Lopetegui in to manage. You remember when Yuland Lopetegui was supposed to manage Spain and then didn't? That was one of the best sagas of all time in World Cup after dark and just international football. That hilarious.
00:23:14
Speaker
um Why they call him in for this window? Why not to coach these two games? It almost makes more sense to call him in. Once you make it to a world cup and you need to get yourself to a world cup level.
00:23:28
Speaker
What does he know about this squad to win these two games? Like truthfully, like I don't know. It's fun. It's fun. yeah yeah It's exactly what we would expect. The other group of it, I think there's some tension there because I i don't think Saudi Arabia are that good.
00:23:46
Speaker
I think Iraq are coming in with a massive chip on their shoulder. The Iraqi Federation was very displeased with how the hosting situation played out here. Saudi Arabia's performance at the CONCACAF Gold Cup, which is just an incredible sentence to say, actually ended with them at a worse FIFA ranking than Iraq.
00:24:03
Speaker
And Iraq rightfully said, hey, this should be taking place in our soil because the justification, in air quotes, for for Saudi Arabia and Qatar is that they were the highest ranked teams in this level. um I think that Iraq-Saudi Arabia game in the last match day will have a lot of spice to it.
00:24:17
Speaker
Indonesia have been really fun. ah unfortunately think that the fun might end here. Both teams that are playing them are incentivized to get a leg up ahead of the game on Tuesday for goal difference, which is not good for Indonesia. Like generally thriving in weird, chaotic situations where they can go up and down and try to win a close game.
00:24:40
Speaker
The other teams are just, they're too business focused and Indonesia aren't a team to play bunker and counter ball. So I think that's, that's against them here. um That's tough. I think what's, what's interesting is that Iraq are more of that style and Saudi Arabia are more of the play with the ball style.
00:24:58
Speaker
Yeah. Who's going to, it's a good clash. i don't, I think Saudi Arabia are a touch better, but I don't think so much so. And especially the way the styles work out that Iraq won't have a puncher's chance even if the legs are a little tired.
00:25:10
Speaker
That is a really good game. I think you said it really well. Iraq are extremely motivated to prove a point. um Yeah, that's ah yeah that's ah about as good as it gets as an Asian qualifying game.
00:25:22
Speaker
And I think it's going to be key who goes into those matches. like i think the most likely scenario here is that the seeds hold and that on Tuesday we get Qatar against the UAE. and Saudi Arabia against Iraq for a spot in the World Cup with the loser finish finishing second and going through the playoff.
00:25:36
Speaker
Who goes into that match with the advantage of a draw, right? And that's going to come down to who won by the most amount of goals in their previous match. I don't think it's impossible for UAE to actually go into that Qatar match with the draw advantage. I think UAE can actually score. I think Govan can give up goals. Qatar can also score, but they can also give up goals.
00:25:52
Speaker
So I don't think it's out of the realm possibility, but I do think I would back Qatar. I think if if you put me on the spot, I'm taking Qatar and Iraq here. I think Iraq can get it done. I think it's all too perfect, right? Like this is not how Wilkin qualifications to be. Somebody should be able to pull an upset here. like Let's see who it is, right?
UEFA's Pivotal Qualifying Matches
00:26:11
Speaker
I agree. The only thing I would say is you're betting against Herb Bernard. That's true. is He was brought in, like, at least he was brought in a few windows ago to do this job and got some good matches at the Gold Cup.
00:26:24
Speaker
Again, so Saudi Arabia were very uninspiring. We saw them. But I think he at least has a better handle on what his squad could do as opposed to patagy who I truly have just baffled why they brought him in this time. Just wait, ah wait a few weeks, but I guess they need these results. Okay, sure. But um that's just, it's, it's going to be tough. And again, Herbert Nard's not the greatest manager in the international scene, but um both of these sides Saudi Arabia and Iraq have just going to, I'm ah just going to assume they've done their homework for each other, right? They know each other, familiar teams.
00:26:58
Speaker
It's a high level game. I think that the field is tilted for Saudis. Iraq have a good chance. And I certainly agree with that. It's the the best chance here to to upset the order and that not everything can just go to plan. That's not how it works.
00:27:13
Speaker
Also, one final point here that is worth mentioning is Indonesia have gotten big results. I know we kind of poo-pooed them a little bit, and I think rightfully so. I think they are they're pretty far behind where the Saudis and and Iraq are here.
00:27:25
Speaker
But Indonesia have gotten results so far, right? They beat Saudi Arabia when the two teams played at home, and they held Saudi Arabia to a 1-1 draw when they played in Saudi Arabia. And I think there could be a moment in that first match where...
00:27:39
Speaker
Right. Like, I don't think Saudi Arabia are just going to come out guns blazing. They should, but I think there could be some tension there. And I think Indonesia should try and play off that. And they'll also be pretty well supported because we've seen Southeast Asian teams supported really well in the Middle East when they played.
00:27:51
Speaker
Yeah. And yes, we did poo poo them a little bit, but to the point is you don't want to play their game. right You don't want to get caught up and down. You don't want to let them, you know, run at you. They've got some technical players. They've got like good attacking football.
00:28:06
Speaker
Again, can they defend? No, but like they had a 1-1 draw. The last thing you want is to be trailing one and then have them constantly running at you. And certainly Indonesia's advantage can we just out-energy the other team, right? And like thrive in a little bit of stupid soccer. Like...
00:28:24
Speaker
Neither those teams are immune to that. Yeah, for sure. It'll be fun. I'm excited for to see what the Asian window cooks up. And then we've got a playoff to come in November. We've also got a whole slate of UEFA qualification matches coming our way here in October. i mean i think Most of this window in UEFA is really focused on setting up the big clashes of November. right that's That's when the checks are paid.
00:28:46
Speaker
That's when spots are going to be handed out. That's when teams are fighting for second. That's when we're keeping an eye on the UEFA Nations League ranking. All of that comes in November, but I think there's some big moments on our on the way here in October that are really going to set up those things coming in November. So I think the best way to do this is let's look at the schedule day by day.
00:29:02
Speaker
Let's pick out the big games in teams to watch. and Let's start on Thursday a bit with a Czech Republic-Croatia match at the for the top spot in Group L. Yes, we go all the way to L in UEFA qualifying.
00:29:13
Speaker
ah Croatia won five one when they played in June. but they're tied on points. Is there any reason why that should change here? No, only because I saw the match and I think Czech Republic are perfectly fine.
00:29:27
Speaker
They're not bad, but something about Croatia, their ability to control the game with passing is just like us a level above what Czech Republic solidness can meet.
00:29:40
Speaker
it's just a higher level. You want to say, you want to boil it down to there's a few world-class players. Luka Modric is still, he's at Milan. He, you know, he's not Real Madrid, but he's still just able to pull the strings.
00:29:52
Speaker
They've just got a gear and they've got the veteran savvy. Again, this was a team that has been at the back four of big European tournaments. yeah Is it, you know, sustainable at a world cup level?
00:30:04
Speaker
I'm not, I'm less sure, but is it sustainable to like kick Czech Republic's butt in a game like this? yeah, I'd be surprised if it wasn't that. I think Czech Republic up for it. think they'll run really hard.
00:30:15
Speaker
Maybe, you know, things could go ah sideways. And, you know, Croatia, again, older, or more savvy, less legs. That's where you're if you're game planning Czech Republic, where you're trying to hit them. But you got to chase the ball for 90 minutes. And that's a tough ask.
00:30:29
Speaker
Yeah. And Croatia have really picked their moments in this World Cup qualification, right? Like, Road trip to the Faroe Islands, we'll just win 1-0. We're not really that interested in that game. But again, when it counted, they played Czech Republic head-to-head. They beat them 5-1. They beat Montenegro 4-0.
00:30:44
Speaker
They've picked their moments well so far. Again, they haven't lost and they've only conceded one goal. like They're pretty clearly the the best team in this group. So let's go there. ah Scotland and Greece also on Thursday. It's a tight fight in Group C with Denmark also involved. I think this is going to be a big game for second place and and also to kind of establish who will be the biggest challenger to Denmark here.
00:31:04
Speaker
There's a reason for both of these teams to believe that they could be making a World Cup, right? 100%. Either of these teams could believe they can challenge Denmark, as you said. Also, either of these teams could believe they could win a ah playoff um in Europe.
00:31:18
Speaker
And These are the types of Scotland and Greece are exactly the types of teams that play in European playoffs for qualifying spots. So this is kind of a play in and it's a really big game.
00:31:30
Speaker
I think these teams are pretty close. I think I got to knock Scotland down. arts Sorry. I've got to knock Greece down a peg based on what I saw. They're little less impressive.
00:31:41
Speaker
Scotland, Arsenal, Denmark really surprised me. Like they, I was expecting more from them. Yeah. And Scotland, I think have that, like they had that 2004 Greece thing about them, right? Like, yeah, they they actually play that style. Both of these teams play like against the ball, Mucky, but Scotland are actually better at it because they're good at winning aerials in the final third. Yeah.
00:32:04
Speaker
just kind of getting the ball in the box and winning second balls and shooting them. um A big player here, the best player on the field is Scott McTominay. yeah And he is good at playing the kind of game that this is going to be.
00:32:18
Speaker
It's going to be a lot of duels, lot of 50-50s and being solid. Scotland, I think, are bit up ah better up and down the pitch, but it's going to be a good game, going to be supercharged. Like Greece, certainly going to bring it.
00:32:31
Speaker
Got to watch this one. On Friday of it, Germany will host Luxembourg. I put this on the list simply because if everything is not fine for Germany, this is the first spot that we could potentially find out, but they're not going to lose to Luxembourg, right? Like, they're not going to draw Luxembourg.
00:32:46
Speaker
No, no chance, no chance. Okay, Northern Ireland will play Slovakia. This game matters because it's in the same group as Germany. Slovakia are trying to keep standings pressure on Germany with a win. Playing away in Belfast against Northern Ireland is one of those weird, tricky European qualifiers, and it's not like Slovakia are exactly world beaters here.
00:33:04
Speaker
This is a big game. Slovakia want to stay as far in front of Germany as possible for as long as possible, right? Yeah, I agree. This is where we're just going to see how serious Slovakia are for the challenge, right?
00:33:15
Speaker
if If they're a team that can make a World Cup without a playoff, this is a game that you win. Even if it's ugly, you just got to get it over the line. I think it's going to be ugly. um So this should actually be a tough one, a really tough one, like you said, um for the for the road trip to Northern Ireland.
00:33:31
Speaker
um Slovakia don't really like have easy ways to break you down. They just, they run hard. They take some, some opportunistic shots. um this will be This will be grimy, but I back them just a tad here.
00:33:47
Speaker
Yeah, they were legitimately good against Germany. They outplayed Germany when they beat them 2-0 at home. This is a huge window for Slovakia because they follow this up with a home match against Luxembourg. Six points here, and you are most likely going into that crucial clash away against Germany on the last day with the advantage of a draw. And perhaps if Germany slip up, you might already be qualified.
00:34:05
Speaker
So big, big games in Group A. Belgium, North Macedonia, Belgium, I think can probably just about salt this group away with two wins in this window, but they're tricky fixtures. North Macedonia at home, they play whales away.
00:34:16
Speaker
Belgium haven't been without air. So we have to at least tune in here and see what happens. I think the quality of Belgium probably wins out over the the course of this group, but eight in one match, anything can happen.
00:34:27
Speaker
Agreed. North Macedonia is a little better than I thought coming into the cycle. Belgium or Belgium. That's the best thing we can say. So you got to see if a Belgiuming happening.
00:34:38
Speaker
ah belt I can't speak English, but you know what I mean? Belgium could Belgium in this game. so you have see. And they did the last time they played, right? They did, yeah. They led the entire match and were pegged back in the 86th minute by by a goal by Alioski for North Macedonia.
00:34:51
Speaker
Those are the type of results that when they happen once, it's fine. But if it happens a second time, that starts to to be concerning. So that's one to watch on Friday. And then Sweden, Switzerland, I think also makes, makes the list for Friday. I think it's the last, but probably the last chance for anybody to put pressure on Switzerland and to deny you a bit of the pleasure of watching a round of 16 Switzerland team that inspires you exactly zero times and loses at their first hard game.
00:35:14
Speaker
Yeah, I, we both were disappointed with Sweden last time out. Again, I think they've got the attacking talent here to, to make things interesting. If they can, you know, capitalize early, get a great finish. I think what's tough is that the Swiss midfield is annoyingly effective and Sweden's midfield is less effective, even if they're attacking front is good.
00:35:35
Speaker
um So going to be a tough match, but yeah, this is their chance to to see it see it happen. Also, I just think like this, you know, some of these games could get interesting.
00:35:46
Speaker
This is a game that Switzerland wants to be boring, which isn't good for the neutral like us. Yeah, also Sweden, when you lose to Kosovo, like, you kind of lose all the goodwill that you've built up, that you could have potentially built up.
00:36:00
Speaker
On Saturday, admit the headliner is the Serbia-Albania match. We love ourselves an Eastern European derby. England are running away with first place in Group K, and that means that second place is at stake here, and that's a spot in the playoff.
00:36:11
Speaker
And again, get yourself into the playoff. You never know what can happen with the draw. This is going to be a good game, mainly because as far as like controlled environments are are concerned, that's not what you're going to get when Serbia play Albania in a World Cup qualification match.
00:36:25
Speaker
This is a kind of a play-in-esque game for for a second-place spot that could you know get to a playoff. and think Serbia are a bit better on talent, but not so much better.
00:36:36
Speaker
Albania are ahead of them by a point. They're at home. I think those are the ingredients for a really fun, entertaining game. And that certainly Albania is trying to ratchet up the chaos, trying to unnerve Serbia, get them below their level.
00:36:51
Speaker
trying to play anti-soccer. We've seen Albania at the Euros. They're a very deep defensive block. They don't have a lot going forward. Serbia like to attack.
00:37:02
Speaker
Their defense is a little slow. So how much can you make them get uncomfortable into a mistake? Always great stuff. Yeah, and Albania also had the advantage of a draw, right? Like, they both still have to play England. That's probably going to be a loss for both of them. They both have matches. In Albania's case, they play Latvia. In Serbia's case, they play Andorra.
00:37:22
Speaker
Or is it the exact opposite? It's the exact opposite. In Albania's case, they play Andorra and Serbia's case they play Latvia, you'd back the results to be largely similar down the stretch. So a draw here would be a pretty good result for Albania.
00:37:33
Speaker
It's a must-watch match on Saturday. On Sunday, Denmark will play Greece. I think that's a match where Denmark can salt away at the top spot. Let's see what happens against Belarus. Let's see what happens that Greece-Scotland match.
00:37:43
Speaker
But if Denmark gets six points from this window, nobody's catching them to make the World Cup. Yeah, yeah. I mean, maybe Greece gets in with the win over Scotland and has a chip on their shoulder for revenge.
00:37:54
Speaker
But even then, on the road, it's a tough ask. Yeah, on Monday, in admit, Germany will go to Belfast to play Northern Ireland. Again, you'd imagine they take care of Luxembourg, so the difficulty level rises here. Again, Germany have used up their mulligan in World Cup qualifying. Depending on what Slovakia do, Germany can't really afford to slip up again and just make it right at the end because this isn't a long enough cycle where you can do that. And so, if Slovakia can go six for six in this window, Germany also have to go six for six and then beat Slovakia when they play on the last day.
00:38:23
Speaker
So the pressure's on here. It's a tricky match. Northern Island caused Germany some problems when they played in the last window. Germany ended up winning that match. It's one to keep an on. Yeah. you Again, let's we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll take the temperature check and see.
00:38:38
Speaker
i think we're going to postpone the find out with Germany till the last day. Wales and Belgium will also play on Monday. They played one of our favorite games of World Cup qualifying so far amate when they met. I think that was in June when they met.
00:38:51
Speaker
What's in store this time? We're backing Belgium to get this done, but again, you slip up enough and you and you open the door for teams like Wales down the stretch. That game was crazy. A little fluky for Wales, but I think there is something there in that Wales play dramatically solid version of mixer ball and Belgium are vulnerable to that kind of soccer.
00:39:14
Speaker
Um, and Wales is at home. I think they have great energy and run. Um, again, if Belgium are up for it and if they're past their nonsense should be easy, but Wales have a lot of incentive to try and pull the shock and believe they can pull the shock.
00:39:30
Speaker
And points against Belgium will be really key. Wales and North Macedonia are really head for head head-to-head for that spot in in second place, which is probably what their goal is, right? They'll play on the last day. They'll both want to go into that match with the advantage of a draw. So any points that either of those teams can get against Belgium would would be big there.
00:39:47
Speaker
Shifting to the final day on Tuesday, admit we have Israel and Italy in Hungary. It's probably bold of me to just assume that Italy takes care of Estonia on Saturday, but we're going to do that for the sake of discussion here. ah Israel will play Norway.
00:39:59
Speaker
Norway have a really good World Cup qualification. So if we assume that those matches go like we think they will, we got absolute madness the last time these two teams lined up against each other. surely they won't do it again, right? This will just be relatively easy for Italy. And if it is, they kind of quiet all the doubts and they can just focus on making the World Cup playoff in March and see what happens.
00:40:21
Speaker
I think that's the right reading. i just i just think Israel wants to play ah chaotic game where they get running up and down the field and they get Italy into...
00:40:34
Speaker
shook mode, right? Where they're just kind of like lost in a crazy game. I think there's a chance that this could get into that zone. You still back Italy, despite it all just for the talent, but let's see, this one is going to be an interesting atmosphere. And I think it's an interesting to see are Italy, like assuming they're just going to get to the playoff or Italy, right.
00:41:00
Speaker
like prepared to, for the difficulty of this task ahead, this is a, this is a good temperature check for Italy because if they take care of Israel by two or three goals, I will feel like, okay, they understand, but I'm, I'm worried Italy to me have not earned any ah benefit of the doubt.
00:41:21
Speaker
Yeah, for sure. It's a fun match. I think it's it's the highlight of the matches on Tuesday. We also get Turkey against Georgia. Both these teams mit are very, very behind Spain. But this will decide who finishes second in this group, and that's going to matter because that's a spot in the playoff.
00:41:36
Speaker
Yeah, good play-in material as always. These are teams that are going to be a step away ah soon. Turkey are better, but Turkey play, and when they're at their best, they play silly open games.
00:41:47
Speaker
Georgia certainly have a a player or two that can ah hit you on the counter. i think there's I think there's some intrigue here. so Again, Turkey are better, but this this does matter, even if it doesn't matter towards this group.
00:42:01
Speaker
And Latvia will also play England. You do not want to watch this match, but England could qualify for the World Cup in this match, depending on how the results go between Serbia and Albania. So it's it's worth keeping an eye on. Groups that we did not mention here, Amit, the Iceland-France-Ukraine group. Iceland will play Ukraine. That's got that that play-in type match written all over it as well.
00:42:22
Speaker
The Cristiano Ronaldo goal-scoring tour hosts Ireland and Hungary in back-to-back home matches. So light them up. We're scoring four. and And then Group G, which is our Netherlands-Poland group of fun. There's not a whole lot to report from this group. It should be relatively easy wins for all the favorites. I think Poland might actually only play once as well.
00:42:43
Speaker
So we'll check back in on all of that at the end if anything happens. That's a little while worthy and look ahead to November when, again, that's when the checks will be being cashed in UEFA World Cup qualms.
CONCACAF's Intense Battle for Qualification
00:42:54
Speaker
Let's close out the show a bit by talking about CONCACAF. September was major chaos. Will that continue in October? Do resume regular service? I think whatever happens, we are set up for a fantastic finish in November.
00:43:05
Speaker
These matches are going to go a long, long way to setting that up. Let's start in Group B, which was the only group that kind of played out like we expected it to play out. Jamaica topped things on six points. Curacao in second on four. Trinidad and Tobago on one. Bermuda bring up the rear on zero.
00:43:20
Speaker
It's Jamaica and Curacao head-to-head on Friday night, Amit. This is the big one in this group. Jamaica can really just kind of answer all of the questions that we had about them by beating Curacao and just taking care of business in this group.
00:43:34
Speaker
Yeah, this is a great game. um to To start with how you said... Are we going to get more chaos? are we just goingnna Either way, the final window is going to be good. I think things are just going to keep being fun here in CONCACAF.
00:43:45
Speaker
The games have been great. um no Nobody is significantly good at it. Nobody is that much better than anybody else to make you think, like ah they're just going to get it done. right And the team that I think maybe we felt that about didn't get it done. So even if they do that this window, they're still injured.
00:44:01
Speaker
Yes, and there's a lot of soccer in this window, but I've actually been... I've quite enjoyed my time in CONCACAF, and I think I'm going to enjoy it again. And I think Jamaica and Curacao is going to be some more good, fun, silly soccer.
00:44:16
Speaker
Jamaica are a little better. Not so much better. Curacao are more than dangerous enough to put Jamaica under some pressure. a Good clash of styles here. Jamaica's physicality, long balls, um versus Curacao trying to...
00:44:31
Speaker
do things with the ball, run a little bit more. um Should be a good game. I couldn't couldn't exactly tell you. I think it's going to come down to, if you're going back someone, I think Jamaica's got a guy or two that can score the half chance.
00:44:45
Speaker
But Curacao, certainly, I think this is going to be there their best effort, their A game. And you can try to catch Jamaica sleeping often because they often are. So this is a this is a this is ah show me what you got from both teams. I'm excited.
00:45:02
Speaker
Yeah, and it's also interesting because these teams will then play again, obviously, you know, when they play in Jamaica in November. But this is as good like this is as good of a chance as Curacao will have, right? It's the whole match against Jamaica. You've got all the buildup in it. You can pass them in the standings.
00:45:17
Speaker
This is exactly what you're what you're looking for, and I think we'll... will deliver as far as the the drama is concerned. Trinidad and Tobago will play Bermuda. Look, that should be a win for Trinidad and Tobago. And then that could set up a very interesting Trinidad and Tobago Curacao match that could go a long way to determining who finishes in second in this group.
00:45:36
Speaker
So keep your eye out there. Moving to Group A, Amit. Suriname are you surprisingly in front in this group. They play Guatemala at home on Friday. I know all of the attention will be on that Suriname-Panela match in the second spot in this window, and I think that's a very important match, and and we're going to be there.
00:45:53
Speaker
Suriname at home against Guatemala, I think, is the real how real are you test, right? Because it's the match that you have to take care of if you want to put yourself in the best position possible for the big matches to come, right?
00:46:07
Speaker
So this is, you play Guatemala at home, you are, we think, better than Guatemala, maybe, right? Go out and win 2-0 and just take care of business, right? Just put it in there. Yeah, this is fascinating because you just said it.
00:46:21
Speaker
You think maybe – like I also think maybe, but we're going to see, right? Guatemala is solid. Suriname have – the banner you hang for Suriname is played a good gold cup game and looked promising in a loss. Right.
00:46:36
Speaker
So like they've got four points here. So like you got a second banner up a point leading the group after the first match day. But at some point, right, you've got to, you've got to get the, the solidifying the consolidate win. And that's beating the team that,
00:46:52
Speaker
people think was better than you, or maybe is the team that's you're fighting for second. And if you're going to be first, you've got to beat that team. You got to take care of it. As you said that this is fascinating because I think Guatemala are up for it. I think this is again, turn arms at home. So I'm going to give them the edge here, but this is just a big show me game for both teams because I think of Guatemala lose this.
00:47:16
Speaker
Yeah. They're, they're pretty cooked. So this is all hands on deck. Um,
00:47:23
Speaker
Yeah. Surinam should take care. so the Is Guatemala worse than El Salvador? I think so. gumala really they're the I don't know. I don't know. but Everybody's the same in CONCACAF. It's like my big title.
00:47:36
Speaker
um Four points isn't a bad window for Surinam, right? If they run back what they did in the first window, win this match and then draw against Panama, they're going go into that last window, take care of business and you make a World Cup. Yeah, this is so so reductive at the end of the day, but I know Surnam is going to, like, kind of dominate this game.
00:47:53
Speaker
yeah Are you going to finish your your chances, half chances early? And if not, are you going to get a moment late? Let's see. um Yeah, like I think you said it well. Four points isn't the worst thing here, but so this is, you gotta you gotta to get the three at home, right? Right, but to get to four, you gotta get three somewhere, and i I like my chances to get three better than this one. We talked about Panama a lot at the last window of it.
00:48:15
Speaker
This is it, right? Like, you can stomach a kind of queasy two-point window in the first window if you back that up by just taking care of business here, and that's what they have to do because the margin of error is kind of gone for Panama.
00:48:27
Speaker
Away match against El Salvador on Friday night, oh like that's what CONCACAF qualifying is made of right you're going into a very difficult atmosphere i guess a team that you were probably better than but not that much better than you just have to find a way to win it right like draws, we're kind of reaching the point here where draws aren't going to get it done for Panama.
00:48:49
Speaker
And so you've got to go and you've got to into a difficult environment and win. They're better than El Salvador. They have the players. Karnaski is there. Fajardo, Godoy. the like We can name all the great Panamanian players. We can talk about Thomas Crucius and project.
00:49:02
Speaker
It's all good. It's all great. I back it all. But at the end of the day, you have to go beat El Salvador on a front one random October Friday night to make it all happen. Yeah, there are 12 teams in this stage.
00:49:14
Speaker
Panama have the best 11. They just do. The guys are here, right? Let's let's show that like you like you just you framed it really well. these These guys got to deliver.
00:49:25
Speaker
They've got to deliver here. And even if you don't necessarily, you don't have to win on Tuesday, but You're going feel really bad without – I guess you're out you're saying you're at home. You almost do. I guess maybe should – So, like, so against El Salvador, like, I think you could talk yourself into a draw working against El Salvador and then you beat Suriname in the second match. No, I'm i'm saying – saying you've got to beat El Salvador. You can't not beat El Salvador. Yes. But could you could you talk yourself into maybe a draw against Suriname on the second one? I don't think so. I'm jumping a little bit to Tuesday, but –
00:49:57
Speaker
I don't think you're two points back of Suriname, right? Like you have to pass them at some point. And so then you're just counting on them slipping up, which again could absolutely happen. oh yeah If you are the team that everybody has said you are right, this is the window where you show it and you get it done and you put yourself back in full position. You finish it off in November.
00:50:16
Speaker
It comes down to that. Yeah, I agree. And just, so um you know, thinking about Suriname, they played some, some okay soccer at the gold cup that again, we've got the banner. And they they ran really hard against Costa Rica, but they were done in by the moments of quality in that Costa Rica had slightly better dudes in front of net, slightly better defending in the box.
00:50:36
Speaker
The same recipe for Panama. You know it's going to be a tough game. You know they're going to challenge you, but you have the best players in the biggest positions. you've got They've got to show up. And right it's so reductive.
00:50:49
Speaker
But CONCACAF especially is about moments and half chances and That's where Panama's I'm I've circled at a big name for hard Oh, striker score goals for Panama.
00:51:01
Speaker
This is where you, this is where it's, you get your money's worth, right? This is big. I'm very excited for for Group A in Kaka Caf. I'm also a bit very excited for Group C in Kaka Caf because the storylines are largely similar, right?
00:51:15
Speaker
Except the order is flipped. And so we get Honduras, Costa Rica on Thursday night. Honduras are on top of the group with four points, a Honduras team that none of us were buying going into this cycle.
00:51:26
Speaker
They now get group favorite Costa Rica, At home on Thursday night with a chance to open a five point gap with three matches to play. How massive would a win be for Honduras?
00:51:38
Speaker
It's essential, necessary. It's must win because I think without it, you're going to be ruining the chance you had to put yourself with that cushion. It's a tough game. There's a really tough game for Honduras because...
00:51:52
Speaker
They've got all the momentum, but now you're getting Costa Rica's best punch. We just, we know Honduras isn't that good. So you're, you're basically saying, come on guys, this is the game of our lives, right? Let's put in the shift of shifts.
00:52:04
Speaker
Let's ride the home atmosphere. Can they? Yeah. The answer is anything. The answer is always anything can happen, but I'm, I remain skeptical, but I know that they're going to give it a good, a good shot.
00:52:18
Speaker
Yeah, and and the pressure's really on Costa Rica because of the like they did well, obviously, as we talked about, to fight back for a point in that crazy match against Haiti in the last window. But again, you have to win at some point to get this done, and this seems like a good opportunity to do it.
00:52:35
Speaker
Obviously, it goes without saying that Costa Rica at home against Nicaragua on Monday, that's a must win. You can't cannot drop points to Nicaragua in this in this qualification cycle at this point, I think. So Costa Rica, I have to get three points there.
00:52:47
Speaker
And then Haiti are the other team that are interesting in this group. Two away matches here, which doesn't actually mean that much because all of the matches are away at this point for Haiti, like we talked about.
00:52:58
Speaker
Nicaragua away, Honduras away. If Haiti gets six points, they're right in the conversation here atop this group. Yeah, the opening is there for Haiti.
00:53:09
Speaker
I believe it 100% because Nicaragua is the easiest game in the group. You could win that one. And then you catch Honduras, you know, maybe after an emotional game against the tough Costa Rica team.
00:53:21
Speaker
And this is your window to get back in this group. um i'm I'm also worried about the snowball bat effect for for Haiti, right? Because they kind of missed the big opportunity.
00:53:35
Speaker
You're not at, I mean, they they had no home games, but this is two two away games is still hard in a sense. Yeah. yeah you've got to scrape whatever you've got here. And it's been, we identified this in our preview pod for, for the whole CONCACAF cycle, right?
00:53:50
Speaker
Haiti had an uphill climb. There are a lot of promising things about this project, but this was going to be tough to do. This to me is where, can you, can you fight against all the external factors kind of weighing you down?
00:54:04
Speaker
And I, you know, the, the fixtures are there. Again, similar to... The door's open. open. You know, I do think they're going to control both games.
00:54:16
Speaker
Can you score? Who scores? How? And... Duck is on, baby! Yeah, he... I mean, he was incredible against Costa Rica. Can you bottle a little bit of magic? What do you need? Three, four games here of magic. But it almost feels like they got one game of their magic and they they wasted it. So yeah I think the window's open. I think there's a chance they could come out of this with six and be really game on for the last window. but But um could you could anyone count on it?
00:54:47
Speaker
Could you count on this Haiti team to get the results arere supposed to get? I'd be hard-pressed to find someone who would say that. For sure. For sure. And we touched upon it already, but just to reemphasize, it's the huge pressure on Costa Rica. and They're in the same spot that Panama are, right?
00:55:02
Speaker
I think those are the two teams that we felt best about coming into this qualification, and now the pressure is fully on, and they have Honduras and Nicaragua, and and it's an away match against Honduras, and made all of the pressure that Panama has when they go to play El Salvador in the Cuscatlan, Costa Rica has the exact same pressure against Honduras.
00:55:19
Speaker
It's going to be fun. I agree. It's super fun. And the only thing I was just going to add on Costa Rica, same thing, star strikers, who's going to show up for Costa Rica, but Panama's defense still good. I think, you know, Keylor Navas is not a non-factor.
00:55:33
Speaker
Should honder Honduras or Nicaragua score against Costa Rica? Like truly should they score against Costa Rica? The answer is no. So I think Costa Rica have, again, the pressure is on, but you,
00:55:47
Speaker
the foundation, the solidity is there. So can you just, can you meet the moment? Going to be big, big fun windows for the three favorites here, all under a lot of pressure.
00:55:57
Speaker
Yeah, it feels like, like and this was our feeling on ConquerCoff going into this, every game here, with maybe the exception of games involving Bermuda, thanks guys, we've loved it, the island vibes are great, it's just fun.
00:56:08
Speaker
um Every game here is must watch because the gaps just aren't there between these teams, and this is, it's gonna come, we know it's coming down to November, right? Like, we know that, we just don't know what the permutations are gonna be, and we don't know who's gonna be in pole position when it's there, so.
00:56:23
Speaker
Very, very excited for it. That's all for us. and And we're going to wrap up this show here. Amit, you and I, we will be back on the back end of this window to break it all down. ah Enjoy the matches, right? If you like what we do on the World Cup After our podcast, you can support us, patreon.com slash WCAD for $3 a month.
00:56:41
Speaker
World Cup qualifications spreadsheet. I know I keep plugging it, but it's going massive. It's going be great. Everything that we're looking for. Enjoy the matches, and we'll see you guys the back