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WCAD 3-42: Group Stage Draw React-A-Palooza
115 Plays13 days ago
Amit and Austin come together to take a 30,000 ft. look at the World Cup Group Stage Draw, from a potential Argentina-Spain Round of 32 clash to a bell curvy-opportunity for the USMNT. Plus, Belgium's Group of Opportunity, and the France-Norway-Senegal Thunderdome.
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Transcript
Introduction and Promises
00:00:01
Speaker
You know, on the World Cup i After Dark podcast, I don't like to make a lot of promises about what you're going to get on this show. But on today's show, I'm going to promise the listeners a minute. I'm going promise them three things that they're going get from us. All right. You ready for three things that they're going get from us? Yes. Thing number one, we're going to be out in less than two hours, which means we're going beat what the FIFA World Cup draw lasted. That's thing number one.
00:00:23
Speaker
Thing number two, we're going to pronounce all the names right. At least I think we're going pronounce all the names You won't be hearing North Macedonia or Curacao on the World Cup After Dark podcast because we've known those guys for a long, long time.
00:00:35
Speaker
And thing number three, no YMCA. At the end of the show, i it's not going to start doing the the YMCA dance the listeners. Beyond that, I can't make any promises about what you're going to get on today's show.
Pronunciation Mishaps
00:00:44
Speaker
Who was doing the pro pronounce wrong? Wayne Gretzky? Not so great. Yeah. yes Yeah. Yeah. Poor Wayne Gretzky, who like very clearly signed up for this and didn't know what he was getting into, which is fair.
00:00:55
Speaker
But also like Wayne Gretzky needs his PR guy to be like, Wayne, they stuck you with pot four. I don't think, you know, many of the countries of this pot. Do you just want to like run through them just so you know, so that you don't say North Macadona on live TV for everybody while Rio Ferdinand, like very like,
00:01:14
Speaker
just tries to like condescendingly tell you like you're doing great way and you're doing great like you're not doing great you haven't pronounced any of this right counterpoint it's an american world cup you get the american flavor and that's famous americans having no knowledge of things globally and saying them wrong there you go he's canadian and that's the worst part there's the canadian who got this all wrong was gonna say lalas is probably just delighted at the scenes from from friday It like it was it like it was a very American World Cup draw like American sports putting themselves into FIFA. We had the whole drop preview show that complaining about draw ceremonies isn't really what you should do because you know what you're getting into. But even by the lofty standards of draw ceremonies, this one probably took the cake and we haven't even touched on the FIFA Peace Award that was
World Cup Group Announcements
00:02:03
Speaker
awarded during the draw ceremony. And we don't need to touch on that. So at the end of the day, Abit, as we sit here on Friday afternoon, we have World Cup groups, and that is what you and I are all about.
00:02:13
Speaker
Correct. We have been waiting for so long to get these groups and we just get six months of the good stuff. And right here, right now on Friday afternoon, you're getting the freshest stuff of, and our everyone's takes will evolve a million times. We'll talk ourselves to every result, but right now, here we go. We got the fresh, the fresh takes on I think a really fun draw. I think we're both just starting there. Very fun groups.
00:02:36
Speaker
Yeah, we're we're starting to assimilate it all, right? You have your, like, your knee-jerk gut reaction, and then you kind of look at it more. and And you and I, we had a good five or ten minutes before the show where we kind of assimilated some of it. We talked about some of the things that we wanted to talk about on the show.
00:02:51
Speaker
And I think... A point that may go under the radar here is we've established the World Cup groups and we will talk ad nauseum about those group stage matchups over the next six months. And that's the fun of the World Cup. That's what it's all about is talking ad nauseum about games that we're going to see in three months time, six months time.
Knockout Stage Speculations
00:03:11
Speaker
But maybe the thing that was most important about this draw, at least for a large subset of teams that we feel relatively confident will go through, is this draw also sets the contours of what the round of 32, round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinal, and final look like.
00:03:31
Speaker
And that, Amit, is I think where I want to start this show because there are some very, very intriguing possibilities and matchups in the knockout stage.
00:03:42
Speaker
And one of the things that we talked about so often is we've talked about the expanded World Cup. We've talked about all the teams that are coming in. Oh, the diluted field and and this and that and whatnot. And one of the points that constantly gets brought up is, oh, the round of 32 is not going to be any good.
00:03:56
Speaker
We're going to have tons of mismatches in the round of 32. And what you and I have kind of discovered here is we're not probably going to have those mismatches in the round of 32. What we're going to have is we're going to have some big stakes round of 32 matches with big name teams and some big stakes round of 32 matches with some massive opportunity teams. And that is where I think this draw has spat out some fascinating possibilities.
00:04:22
Speaker
Yes, it's the way that some of the third place teams and second place teams have slotted. So obviously there's going to be some group winners versus third place teams. There's eight of those, right? We know there's eight third place teams. They're all going to play first place teams.
00:04:37
Speaker
A lot of those will be your what you might expect in your head from the round of 32 matches. Like sure big name versus OK, team 20 through 28 in FIFA.
00:04:48
Speaker
Great. handful of those will actually be tough matches for the the group winners. There will be some tough teams that finish in third. They slip there or some good third pot teams. And then I think what you're getting at that we're excited about is there's going to be some very finely poised tough games between two runners-ups versus each other. Runners-up versus runners-ups. And there's a little there's a little wrinkle of four or two groups specifically that are going to have a group winner versus a runner-up.
00:05:19
Speaker
Two of them, and e you can name them right now for me, for the for the listeners, that are very, very exciting possibilities that this draw has spit out.
Third Place Roulette Explained
00:05:27
Speaker
And that's the thing that we talked that you said, right? So eight group winners get third place teams. And I think the term that you and I are going to coin over the next six months and then into the World Cup is we're going to call winning those groups, playing third place roulette, right? There are 495 possibilities for which of the third place teams advance. And depending on which of those 495 scenarios happens, that determines which third place team plays which first place teams. It's super convoluted. It's super complicated.
00:05:57
Speaker
you're playing third place roulette, which basically means you are hoping that you get the bottom half of a third place team and not the falling third place team or whatever. But at its whole, you probably have a three fourth chance to feel content about that.
00:06:13
Speaker
And you probably have a one eighth chance to feel like you got hard done by on third place roulette. All right, teams are going play that. That's established. We'll follow all of that as it goes. There's no real point in trying to put in slot what that's going to be now because there's so many different permutations.
00:06:28
Speaker
Those winners against runner-up, though, those matchups are set. And so the four group winners who will play runners-up, you have the winner of group F who will play the runner-up of group C, and you have the winner of group C who will play the runner-up of group F, and then you have the winner of group Hang on. Got to get my letters.
00:06:47
Speaker
Sorry. Great radio happening right now. You've got the winner of Group H playing the runner up of Group J and vice versa. And perhaps most intriguingly, the most interesting thing of all of this. And if you flashback a bit to what we talked about on Wednesday, we said FIFA has attempted to lay the yellow brick road for the top seeded team.
00:07:07
Speaker
It's fine that they do that. It's all well and good that they do that. We are one slip-up away from either Argentina or Spain. If they both win their groups, they go to the opposite side of the bracket. They can't see each other until the final.
00:07:21
Speaker
Do you know what happens, Amit, if Spain win their group and Argentina finish second or if Argentina win their group and Spain finish second? They play the round of 32. The top two teams in the FIFA ranking, the teams that have been put apart, that FIFA went head over heels to make sure they end up on opposite sides of the bracket.
00:07:38
Speaker
One slip up, one poor result, one draw with the team passing you on goal differential, and those teams are going to clash in the round of 32, and one of them is going to have a complete disappointment of a World Cup. And that is where all of this is so intriguing.
00:07:53
Speaker
That would be delightful. And I think we're going to get, obviously we're going get, just on the math, some... some really, really good that we're not even expecting, on top of everything we've outlined, a match like this that you've you've outlined. This one specifically would be crazy. And we haven't named, we haven't even talked about the draw specifically at all. We're just talking about possibilities of knock-around. But you, listener, you you have the draw in front a You've seen the draw. you You've seen the groups. just Just on that point, FIFA has a big, big bet on groups H and J being going to plan. And i don't think that's a horrible bet, but
00:08:29
Speaker
There's going to be chaos in some of these. Maybe not these two, but. it And if they don't, can you imagine the stakes? If that happens, you know, whether it happens in in Miami or whether it happens in. I just, I feel bad for the graphic designers who who've got a lot of time to work on their messy, I mean, your
Group of Death Analysis
00:08:48
Speaker
ball comps or bars, a messy bar. Like there's a lot of ripe stuff to work with, but they. They need that extra month right now. no but out they out of you too Yeah. And the other half of that equation, which is also very intriguing, those other two groups that we named them, it are group C and group F. And both of those groups are top heavy, right? Group F Netherlands in Japan with a UEFA playoff winner, Ukraine, Poland, Albania, or Sweden in Tunisia and group C Brazil, Morocco, and then Haiti and Scotland.
00:09:16
Speaker
It is more likely than not that Brazil, Morocco, Netherlands, and Japan, those four teams in some combination are going to play against each other in round of 32. And again, all four of those teams can tap themselves as potential World Cup semifinalists. It is very likely that two of them are going home in the round of 32.
00:09:34
Speaker
Another intriguing possibility, another underlying aspect of what this draw gave us. I agree. That's a good thing to to talk about that people probably aren't haven haven't mentioned yet this early in the game. I'm sure people will get on to it. We're not the only ones, but those are just going to be the best, probably the best round of 32 games. As you said, all four teams could back themselves and to make a semifinals run, it's likely that it'll be as you said, some combination of them.
00:10:03
Speaker
Really, really, really interesting stuff. And that's mostly on the strength of Morocco and Japan being two of um the best pot two teams, two of our favorite teams. It's going to be really fun. And it's the the other thing there, just that like winning those groups specifically, isn't going to feel like that much of a reward because you don't have that pot three roulette or or third place roulette that you want to call it. So yeah,
00:10:25
Speaker
And maybe it will because, again, this is the World Cup and all this will happen. And the next thing that's goingnna happen is Haiti's going to finish a second. And whatt group will be what said again, that's what happens at the World Cup. and And we talk ourselves into all this. But the possibilities that we get are are absolutely mouthwatering. right. Do you want to talk about some of the actual groups now that we've kind of gone into the the big picture bracket side of it?
00:10:47
Speaker
I think there's a pretty clear... answer as to which is the quote unquote group of death, which is the most difficult group. I want, I'm imagining that you're in agreement with me. It is a fascinating quartet of teams with France, Senegal, Norway, and then an intercontinental playoff winner, whether it be Iraq, Bolivia, or Suriname and group I,
00:11:07
Speaker
I think this is the most equal of the groups as far as the three named teams that we have. France, Senegal, tons of World Cup history in that matchup. Obviously, Senegal beat defending champions France in the opening match of the 2002 World Cup.
00:11:21
Speaker
Former colony playing France, always good. Norway making the major tournament return. This is a fascinating group, admit, that is going to give us really great matchups and also really great pressure on these teams to beat that fourth team, whoever it may be, by a lot of goals to work themselves into a good spot in a potential third place. table.
00:11:38
Speaker
Well said. this We said in the preview pod the two teams to watch here were Norway and Ivory Coast. Very likely one of them would be in a group of death as such a thing exists.
00:11:49
Speaker
Norway did it here and all they needed was a so a solid pot two team and they got not just a solid team or perhaps all the pot two teams are solid. Senegal is good as you said. Tasty storylines and I think just really great games and it's going to be really tough for these teams to avoid getting dumped out of third. I know there's a lot of pressure on them to run up the score on four on the fourth place team, but it's, it's,
00:12:18
Speaker
ah draw draws are going to hurt. Like it's just going to be really, really dicey and it's going to be really fun. And I, I'm excited personally that France are going to have to play, right? I don't think France can, can sleepwalk through either Senegal or Norway. And right there, Senegal, Norway, I think is one of your world cup after dark or hipster, you know, games of the entire group stage. There's, there's a million there again on nauseum. We're going to talk about the matchup. So right there, that is just great stuff that the type of stuff we've been waiting to see. Um,
00:12:47
Speaker
Yeah, i feel bad for the PATH2 team, Iraq's Suriname, Bolivia that comes out. The teams are going to be really incentivized to to run it up against them. Yeah, and it's it's funny. So France and Senegal are going to play in the opening match day. You made a perfect point.
00:13:00
Speaker
France can't work their way into this World Cup, right? They can't. There's there's a great cycling term where you you ride your legs into a race, right? It's a three-week race. you You ride your legs into it in the first week. France aren't going to have that benefit because they play Senegal right off the bat. and They're going need to get a result there.
00:13:16
Speaker
And then they're going to play this IC2 path winner, and and they're going to need to score goals and all that. And Norway, a bit. Erling Holland, who scored goals for fun in World Cup qualification, they're going to open up their World Cup against this playoff team. And you know what they're going to to They're going need to score goals for fun. So we're going to get to see the Erling Holland score goals show right from the start of the World Cup. It's going to be great.
00:13:35
Speaker
It's explosive, explosive stuff. Oh, man. Where do you want to go next? i havet I have an idea for my next toughest group, but... Go for it. show for it yeah i I think Portugal, Colombia...
00:13:51
Speaker
Uzbekistan, and then Intercontent Confederation Path 1 winner is a very tough group. That's DRC, Congo, Jamaica, or the or for a few months, New Caledonia. Three more months of or New Caledonia being a thing that we have to say. Even if Jamaica gets in, I still think that's a tough group because Colombia are very good and I think Uzbekistan are very solid. But if it's DR Congo, that is just a very tough set of three teams outside of pot one. And I think the types of teams, all three of them are very physical, can play, and will make Portugal have to show something if they are to win the group. So that to me is my ah toughest, again, and no I'm not going to call that one another group of death, but a tough group. also intriguing group and very excited. think D or Congo was going to be another big surprise out of pot four where they went.
00:14:46
Speaker
They've put it in a ah tough quartet. Yeah, and I think we made the point when we were chatting pre-show, and and I think it's it's a succinct one. Portugal can't simply cross balls into the box and have success in this group, right? The teams that they have been drawn against are teams that are built to play against that style. If it's Diaracongo that comes out the playoff, Diaracongo eat bad crosses for breakfast, right? That's what they did. That's what they do all through Africa is they are they they are able to take your bad balls and send them away. Portugal are going to have to show something more if they want to get you know more than three or four points out of this group.
00:15:19
Speaker
I it's, it's a great one that again, I'm, I'm very excited for Columbia again, set piece type stuff and Uzbekistan are going to be the team that are probably going to be the least known team at this world cup.
00:15:30
Speaker
There are players, a lot of players playing outside of Uzbekistan, or I should say in Uzbekistan, very few players playing in Europe. You're not going to see a lot of big buildup to them. They're organized. They are disciplined. They have dangerous attacking players.
00:15:44
Speaker
You have to be on your game. If you're on your game, you can probably take care of them. But if you underestimate them, that's where difficulty strikes. It's a tough group for them to get out. I think they're the fourth best team in that group. And I had kind of circled them in a preview pod as a team. I'm really excited for their chances. I feel a lot worse about their chances, but I am excited for them to play in this group against some good teams and at least show what they can do.
00:16:05
Speaker
The next biggest group are three really good teams. And again, it's similar to group I that we mentioned. They're going to have to beat up on team number four. Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador. Again, we said where Ivory Coast goes is going to be tough.
00:16:19
Speaker
That's really two tough games. Ivory Coast, Ecuador are just also two nasty teams to play against. Yeah, both very defensive-minded. That Ivory Coast-Ecuador game to open that group is going to be fascinating. yeah Who's going to take the ball, right? The ball might just sit in the center circle. They're both just going to look at each other like, you want it because we don't want it. You want it because we don't want it. And again, points are going to be important. like Starting your group with a point is is probably a good thing.
00:16:45
Speaker
Curacao are going to have a hard time in this group. I think we we can be honest about that. They're going to struggle to break down the defensive blocks that Ivory Coast and... and and um Ecuador present and they're going to struggle to take on Germany. Germany are going to be challenged, right? Because Germany against Ivory Coast, Germany against Ecuador, those are going to be difficult matchups.
00:17:06
Speaker
It's an interesting group where I don't, I think I feel good about those three teams all probably getting out, but I don't feel great about what order it's going to be in. And then we'll see what the consequences are of that down the stretch.
00:17:19
Speaker
Yeah, this, this group and group I are going to be the team supplying the surprises in third place roulette. yeah yeah like We want to get away from them. in third place You're just trying to imagine a scenario, right? Where a big fish gets dumped and it's not really going to be one of these groups because if you win three points once against bad team, and if you lose the other two, which again, we know Germany has slipped up their type of team. That's gone slipped up in world in world cup group stages, three points with, you know, a two or three goal win.
00:17:54
Speaker
Okay, let's say you lose the other two even at like two oh both. Three points at minus one, is is that really going to be the the ninth cutoff? Yeah. it's Again, we cannot answer that question, but...
00:18:08
Speaker
Where that line falls is probably, like, if you could tell me, all right, you can know one thing about the World Cup group change at this point. um I think the first thing I would want to know is, are England going to get out of first gear just so I can, like, plan something else during those three matches? And the second thing I would want to know is, where's the third place line at?
00:18:27
Speaker
yeah Is it three minus one? Is it three plus two? Is it, I don't think it's going to be four. I just can't imagine it's four, right? We've kind of seen that in Euros... The four is not the line. It's three.
00:18:39
Speaker
And the goal difference is the line. Yep. So where is that goal difference line? That's the information that every manager would love to know because that absolutely is going to influence how you play.
00:18:49
Speaker
I mentioned them a bit. We could touch quickly on the England group. You were pretty excited for this England group. I was absolutely not. I don't need to see any more of England-Croatia. England-Croatia to open that World Cup group is just going to be abysmal. Ghana and Panama are fun. But again, I've seen what England does against teams like Ghana and Panama. Ghana and Panama are playing should be fun.
00:19:09
Speaker
I guess the non-England games could be interesting here because I don't think Croatia can can really impose themselves on Ghana and Panama at this point in their life cycle. I'm really excited for those three teams. Like, I think they all are not good enough to play like suffocating soccer, specifically Ghana and Panama, ah just teams that like to go for it. And this, this is a group where they have to go for it because even Croatia, again, we know they're a very seasoned, very wily, very technical, but the legs on yeah, you're telling me Ghana and Panama aren't like thinking, all right, time to run at these guys in the heat in a,
00:19:43
Speaker
I don't know exactly what those games are, but in the heat in in North America, it's really tough challenge. So I'm excited for that. I think there'll be some good soccer being played. Yeah, can we give England-Croatia the Gentleman's 1-0? They jog around. No one attacks themselves in the 77th minute.
00:20:01
Speaker
Croatia subs on a defender just to bundle it to Harry Kane, give him a pen. Harry Kane, run straight, shoot, baby. That's what he's going to Send the memo to the rest of the the tournament. Here's what happened to this game.
00:20:12
Speaker
did Do you need to watch? No. so Yeah, but ah i like that I like that group. i'm I'm intrigued, and I think there's a very good chance that, you know, one or two teams is dumped from this group, and Croatia could be one of them.
00:20:27
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. You want to talk hosts? We haven't really talked about
US Opponent Examination
00:20:30
Speaker
hosts. It's the next place for sure. Yeah. that yeah so So let's start with with, I think in general, the three hosts are all fairly comfortable with their draw. Mexico and the U.S. I think are certainly going to to to shake a hand. That's good. That's what we're hoping for.
00:20:45
Speaker
Canada, probably a bit less so. Let's start with the U.S. They have Paraguay, Australia, and then UEFA Path C, which would be Turkey, Slovakia, Kosovo, or Romania. Very interesting point here, Amit.
00:20:56
Speaker
If it's Turkey that wins that UEFA path, Turkey, Australia, Paraguay, all U.S. friendly opponents in the last three months. Since September, they have played all of those teams. I think that's just the fascinating wrinkle of this.
00:21:08
Speaker
The U.S., doesn't have a lock it down. It's automatic three points in that group. And I think that's an interesting point, but there is also not a game that you don't feel that the U S can win. Everything is on the table from nine to zero. I would probably lean on the higher side of results for the U S. I think it's a comfortable group.
00:21:29
Speaker
I think so. I think Paraguay are tough to play against. I think they're one of the tougher pot three teams. The thing with Paraguay is as tough as they are, it's hard to imagine them taking a game to anyone. Right. Their style kind of worked in the long slog of Kahnemaball where they just like were super solid defensively.
00:21:49
Speaker
I think in a three game sample, no one can get away with not having to do anything, as you said. And one of my favorite takes about the World Cup is very quickly at some point you have to do something. Yeah. And that's what park i can do something at some point and that's where Paraguay's weakness is. right And I certainly think Paraguay will have a chance to do something against teams in this group. But from the United States perspective, that's a soft game. Australia is, I think, very clearly, if not the sec the bottom two, the worst pot two team. That's really, really nice that they avoided a lot of heavy hitters. A style that's not going to ask a lot of the yeah and this Australia aren't asking you questions that you're not used to answering. And then Turkey, think could good if it's Turkey, think a good team. They're a solid team they can attack, but they're you know defensively vulnerable.
00:22:39
Speaker
I think the U.S. here is not going to have to be put into their desperation mode. And if they are, that's a bad sign. sure They should be able to play at a pretty normal level. Again, the margins here are fine. You can't, know there's no turning the level up or down the world cup. That's not true. There is, you know what I'm saying? Listener, you also know what I'm saying, but like, they're not going to have to show us something above what they are. If they play around their level, I'm with you. You're thinking four, six, seven, right? That's, that should be, and really, truly,
00:23:16
Speaker
okay, we know this is a group that gets a third-place team. The pressure should be on the United States to win this group, set themselves up for a pretty nice path in terms of round of 32, round of 16.
00:23:30
Speaker
It's there for the U.S., as you said, cushy. And, you know, that's just... Paraguay and Australia are not very good offensively. Turkey is, but they're not a well-rounded team. There's just three like half teams here. The United States can get can get through that.
00:23:47
Speaker
Yeah, if if we want to to to to to bring out the World Cup after dark term, like the bell curve result here for the U.S. is going to get them out of the group, right? It's absolutely going to get them out of the group, and and it's probably going to get them further than that the way that the the knockout round draw has. and And the challenge to all the Pot One teams, but specifically specifically Mexico and the United States, given the draws you've been given,
00:24:13
Speaker
Can you make some noise by you you cannot get through your group second? You are setting yourselves up for, again, you can escape and you can, you can grind your way to a penalty shootout win in the round of 32. But if you're serious about something, right, you should win these groups. That's where the best, that's, that's what this is about, right? So I think it's nice. They can have a very clear goal, have a very high intensity level, but the test is not at no point in the, in the group stages that play a team that can,
00:24:40
Speaker
be better than you then at some point we want to see that i think the run-up is nice for the united states players for pot for the manager for the fans for everything it's set up very well yeah and the first game is going to be massive because you know the approach that paraguay is going to take in that game they are dangerous on set pieces they're going to look to head out on the counter and they're going to grime grime grime defensively it is crucial that the u.s break that down sooner rather than later get rid of the pressure well plenty of time to talk about that ad valseum as we get into previews For Mexico, Amit is about, I think, as good of a group as they could hope for. They opened with South Africa. It's a rematch of the opening match in the 2010 World Cup. They have South Korea, which is a very vanilla pot two team that doesn't threaten a ton, I think, of the pot two teams. That's probably one of the teams that you circle and say, all right, we feel comfortable against them.
00:25:29
Speaker
And then they get a UEFA path D team that is more likely than not going to be Denmark, which again, a very vanilla run-of-the-mill team. For Mexico, all things considered, you're in a group that, again, seems very winnable.
00:25:43
Speaker
Yeah, and Denmark is probably close to Mexico. I was going to say a little better, but I don't think there's any evidence necessarily that you can just say one of those is better than the other. Mexico can win this group. They have home field advantage. You've got to like their chances. And it's, you know, Mexico has kind of built up a style that's major tournament-ready.
00:26:03
Speaker
They're in a play you know, low event, set piece, soccer, defend. I think South Korea is a really nice team for that. South Korea, I think they can do some things, but Mexico is more physical.
00:26:15
Speaker
South Africa, they're just okay. they're they're not They're not bad, but I think Mexico, again, their style can work. Denmark, Mexico, okay, Denmark, try to take the game to us. That's the challenge. Denmark can, but um Mexico certainly will get through this group, not will, should get through this group. Can they win it? I think it's a little harder than it is for the United States on the basis of Denmark being good, be better than Turkey. Being more consistent than Turkey. I think they're more like, they are maybe the top level Turkish day is maybe better than the top level Danish day.
00:26:46
Speaker
But dan Denmark, and I, it's funny that I'm saying all this because literally what three weeks ago, we saw Denmark draw at home to Belarus. So maybe the Danish consistency is out the window, but it feels like maybe Denmark are are more consistent than that. And for Canada, sorry, continue.
00:27:02
Speaker
Let's see, too. Also, you know, any of these teams that has a UEFA path, you're hoping it's not the top team, right? It's literally like those are not so certain. And if it's Czech Republic, you are feeling real good. Same day with the United States, specifically Turkey's other three teams in that little path are are very soft as well. so Big drop off if it's Slovakia. We're going to have a lovely March watching all those games. Yeah, for sure. Canada, quickly, i admit we touched on it. There's two European teams here.
00:27:28
Speaker
Switzerland are a very vanilla European team. If it's Italy, that's going to make things hard for Canada, particularly an opening match. Canada, Italy in Toronto, which has a huge Italian population. That would be quite the scene.
00:27:42
Speaker
Qatar is a good opponent from from pot three that they're inconsistent wildly so Canada can that is probably a fun open game with particularly the the the Jesse Marsh style against the Qatari style.
00:27:53
Speaker
But this is a group that I think of the three hosts Canada probably have the most difficult path and that is probably also baking into the fact that Canada are probably the weakest of the three hosts. Well said. a Again, we're not sure it's going to be Italy. I think Wales is solid if it's Wales. But if it is Italy, it's going to be really tough because then I think you're you're pretty honestly going to say Canada's close to the third best team. And this is also the type of group where the third place team could get dumped.
00:28:20
Speaker
This is the type of group where there might not be enough points to go around. You start looking at two points or and draw. Canada and Qatar draw and all of a sudden, uh-oh. Yeah, so again, it's going to be, I think, four really nice, like not going to be any blowouts here. So it's a fun one.
00:28:37
Speaker
Yeah, definitely the toughest of of the three hosts. And if it's Italy that gets through, i think they'd be a very, very fortunate landing spot for them. And I don't know. i think Switzerland also are probably winners because, you know, pot two team that got the weakest team in pop one.
00:28:59
Speaker
That was the goal. As a positive team, your goal was the host yeah out of that draw. So you'll definitely take that. We touched on this earlier. I think these two groups are going to be paired together. we're going to talk about them in sync because I also think they're very,
Spain and Argentina Group Analysis
00:29:11
Speaker
they're similar, right? You've got group h And group J and group H, you've got the top ranked team, the FIFA ranking Spain.
00:29:16
Speaker
You've got an Uruguay team that are probably going to this world cup with a remarkably wide range of possibilities. We don't know if Marcelo Bielsa is even going to make it to the world cup as Uruguay manager.
00:29:28
Speaker
If he does, I don't know what that's going to look like. You can convince me that it all comes together. you know, Kumbaya moment in Uruguay rampaging through the World Cup. You can convince me that Uruguay get to match three and there's like only 14 guys who are willing to put their hand up and be like, I'm ready to play.
00:29:43
Speaker
And then you've got Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia who are significantly lesser teams in this group. And then looking across at the Argentina group in Group J, you've got Argentina, you've got Austria, a intriguing kind of high ceiling, low floor European pot two team, and you have Algeria and Jordan, which are well-known propositions out of the lower pots, that can spring a surprise because again, it's the World Cup, but certainly aren't the teams that you're circling to do that.
00:30:11
Speaker
Argentina and Spain, and it should win these groups. I think the biggest thing is can Uruguay get through in second? Because if they do, that would set up Argentina-Uruguay in the round of 32. And that would certainly not be Argentina easing their way into a World Cup defense in the knockout round.
00:30:25
Speaker
Yeah, I think I agree 100% on everything you said. And Uruguay, I think I have to feel good that they got a group that I just don't think Cape Verde and Saudi arab Arabia are the styles that challenge Bale Sabal. You got to be good with the ball, but physical enough to match. And I just don't think the physicality is there. Uruguay are going to ask Saudi Arabia, they're gonna be like, pass your way past us. And we've seen what happens with Saudi Arabia. It doesn't work. It's just poor. And Cape Verde, you know, also are going to try to pass their way through. And I just think that's a that's a mismatch.
00:30:57
Speaker
yeah Again, given Uruguay shows up to even 70 to 80 percent of their their top gear. I think, you know, I said, OK, Senegal, Norway is the is the hipster game of the tournament. yeah I said it was the World Cup After Dark game. throne That's not true. it's It's like the we love soccer game the tournament. The World Cup After Dark game of the tournament is Cape Verde, San Arabia. yeah Someone here could get through and it would be incredible third place team. And God, this game is going to be like everything I've ever wanted from a World Cup group stage game. Take the over, right? We saw Cape Verde-Libya, right? Take the over in this game.
00:31:32
Speaker
And this is also, I think, a bit a very good draw for Spain because they're the best team in the world. They're going to be the one of the favorites, etc. What was the thing that we said Spain would try to avoid for as long as possible?
00:31:43
Speaker
Organized low blocks that ask them questions. None of these three teams are going to do that. yeah It's against Uruguay, Duwab, Bielsa Ball. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde simply don't have that in their bag. Spain are feeling good. As far as the Argentina group, I think Argentina will probably be pretty miffed about their path outside of this group, but this group is pretty forgiving.
00:32:02
Speaker
Algeria and Jordan are not going to be able to hold a candle to to Argentina once they get it into gear. And I think Austria will be an interesting test and will hopefully be a moment for Argentina where they can kind of get their legs into the World Cup and run a little bit and play against a team that challenges them because they're not going to get much of a challenge from Algeria and Jordan.
00:32:21
Speaker
Yeah, we've obviously you you think about that Argentina, Saudi Arabia shock result. And that's like a lightning in a bottle type thing at the 2022 World Cup. And again, they went on to win the thing. Right. So but if you're looking specifically at the games that like Argentina has huffed and puffed in a group stage. You're thinking about that crazy Iran game, the late Messi winner. You're thinking about that Mexico game, which took a similar Messi-type goal late in the game.
00:32:47
Speaker
Algeria and Jordan are not at that level. They're organized. They're defensive. It is not going to be a run-up the score. Jordan, it might be. But it's it's a it's a put your paces through, and you should be fine. And I like what you said about Austria as well.
00:33:02
Speaker
I think even even a point there, okay, it's not going to kill Argentina, but they really should win this group. But it's a game that they're going to have to get the legs going, but they are better then. Austria have a great engine. They can really run. One thing we like about Argentina is their midfield is actually up for that task. yeah they They are ready to run in that midfield. And they're extremely motivated. So I think then you're thinking of, okay, Austria's kind of weaknesses are box and box.
00:33:27
Speaker
And that's where we're, you know, we're good everywhere because we're Argentina. So it's pretty well set up. I think it's a little bit harder than Spain's group, but... um It's fine. And all things considered, you didn't get a crazy, you didn't get a crazy pot two team and you didn't get any of the, you know, the, the bogeys out of pot three and pot four. Yeah, there's only one European team, and it's probably one of the weaker European teams, at least certainly one of the less proven European teams, and one that will probably be a type of challenge that will suit Argentina, and I think that will be very interesting.
00:33:58
Speaker
um mean There's one group we haven't talked about yet. I think we could colloquially call this one the ah the group of opportunity, right? Because we've got in Group G, completely washed past it. Nobody's buying them anymore, Belgium.
00:34:12
Speaker
mixed in with Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand, which is just an absolute who's who of, ah, this team's going to make your life hard and defend and whatnot, or this team is old and is not going to go very far.
00:34:26
Speaker
Belgium have to be thanking their lucky stars that this is the group that they've gotten. But again, you remember what happened four years ago, right? What was Belgium's issue? They couldn't score goals. They're going to struggle to break down these three sets of teams in particular because they are all going to ask the exact same question of Belgium and then admit when these three teams are playing amongst each other, it's going to be chaotic because a goal is going to go a very long way.
00:34:51
Speaker
Somebody is guaranteed to go through in second and the points are probably there for somebody to go through in third. They probably are. this You summed it up well. I'm just like cringing thinking about Egypt, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand, Iran, New Zealand.
00:35:07
Speaker
Like that's the anti-world game. You're going to need an early goal, right? Yeah. I was going to say G for, I was thinking of something G for go to bed. Like it's bad. It's going to be snooze ball. It's, this is the, this is the, if it was a different time zone that the games that I sleep through, but they're like before six in the morning when I just can't do it. you know Thankfully, in the United States, it won't be that way. but Yes. it says Yeah, I mean, there's going to be a group. I'm just kind of happy for these teams that they're to, they all get each other. It's kind of fitting, right? um Belgium really, really should be feeling real good that they got this group because they have a lot of questions and they, even at their 60%, right, they still should get through as the group leaders. And especially here,
00:35:59
Speaker
You really got to get through as a group leader if you're Belgium to avoid a runner up. So, yeah, it's a look, it's it's a group of opportunity and and Egypt and Iran and New Zealand are probably walking away from this draw thinking, all right, we've got as good of a chance as we could have hoped for the pot. We got the weakest pot one team that wasn't a host, probably we like the weakest European pot one team.
00:36:20
Speaker
Definitely. And we've got three teams that are very similar into what we are. Look, I picked up Iran like two straight World Cups. They can still play something. This might be their opportunity to play something. I don't think Egypt and New Zealand england are going to play something, but maybe they will. Look, this was a fun afternoon. It's a lot more fun now that the draw is actually done and I'm not sitting through, as you so nicely put it, a bit suits be suiting. The suits have done suiting. And now it's time for us to have fun and we've got games and everything. So look, we're going to talk about these groups ad nauseum. We're going to preview these groups in in much more detail.
00:36:53
Speaker
But I think our overall sentiment is we are very excited for what this draw has given us. And I think it's given us a very nice mix of groups and a very nice mix of paths going forward.
00:37:05
Speaker
And I don't think we're going to lack for drama from start to finish at this World Cup. Well said. And we might have been able to say those sentences regardless, but it does actually feel like really well-balanced groups. And I just think a lot of people, the the casual fan or just someone that you're going talk to in the street and you say, let's talk about the World Cup and they're going to oh, you know, it's going be easier to get through. Oh, it's going to be, you know, soft round of 32 matches.
00:37:33
Speaker
I don't think both of those things are true. I think there's going to be drama stakes for some big names in trouble. And also, if you really care about winning this thing, your placement in the group matters. Every game is going to matter. There's going to be less, you know, meaningless games that sets up for really good stuff. And, you know, again,
00:37:52
Speaker
There's traditionals, there's purists, and we understand those takes. But in general, I think this is going to lead to more often than not exciting soccer. And we both like that.
00:38:02
Speaker
Yeah, and what it does is nobody is going to go into the last day. It's very unlikely that we're going to have teams eliminated before the last day. It is extremely unlikely we have a dead rubber.
00:38:15
Speaker
And that is good for the World Cup. That is good for the drama. That is good for what we like. And it is good for the ever-arching eternal question of the World Cup that we're going to ask a million times between now and the end of it is at some point you got
Drama and Excitement Anticipation
00:38:28
Speaker
to show it.
00:38:28
Speaker
And we are going to get to the point with all of these teams. They're going to have to show it at some point. And this format, I think, asks that of all of these teams. And I think that's what what we can be appreciative of. And as you said, the the math, the way that the math is mathing,
00:38:42
Speaker
We're either going to get big teams against each other at the round of 32, or we're going to get disappointing group stage campaigns for big teams. That's just simply the fact the matter. They're either going to play each other at the round of 32, or going to be very disappointed with how their group stage went.
00:38:53
Speaker
And that, I think you and I are both double thumbs up for. If you like what we do here on the World Cup After Dark Podcast, you can become one of our patrons for only $3 a month. You get access to subscriber-only shows. You get access to the World Cup Qualification Spreadsheet. You'll get access to subscriber-only stuff that Amit and I will be doing around the World Cup.
00:39:11
Speaker
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00:39:28
Speaker
We've got a matchup. amit It's Mexico, South Africa, day one of the World Cup. Canada, I guess the European team. It could be Canada, Italy. Italy could be playing on the first day of the World Cup. What more could we ask for? That's all for us. We will be back later this month, probably to chat a little bit of holiday AFCON. If you want to get away from your family at the holiday dinner, I got news for you. AFCON group stage is here for you. We'll chat to you about that later in the month. Take care, guys. Thanks for listening.