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WCAD 3-27: A Massive November Window
59 Plays7 months ago
Amit and Austin come together to zero on on six teams ahead of what promises to be a high-stakes November window. The guys break down the three-way fight for one spot between Paraguay, Bolivia and Venezuela in South America and look at the pressure on Asian heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
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Transcript
International Windows Unfold
00:00:00
Speaker
We told you two months ago that this was going to be an interesting trio of international windows, and that's exactly what we've gotten, and now we enter the third leg of the trio of consecutive international windows. On the World Cup After Dark podcast submit, we know the characters, we know the storylines, it's all our old friends. Again, we don't get any new friends until March, so we're we're with what we've got, but what we've got is pretty good here.
00:00:26
Speaker
Yeah, third round, third time lucky. ah We've already gotten ah more fun each round. But I'm excited. There's some really big games. I think the most consequential games of all of qualifying so far for a handful of teams. And I think the plan today is to to get into that. So
World Cup Qualifying Stakes
00:00:47
Speaker
this is going to be fun. and um there's a long break between November and March. So it does feel like this is ah kind of a big resting point after this window for a lot of these teams. So this is kind of the last ah last say in at least World Cup qualifying, not in overall international side.
00:01:06
Speaker
Well, and the thing, like, the thing you have to think about here is you get to next March and it's 2025, right? Like there's just not a lot of, road and I know that UEFA hasn't even started qualifying yet, and there's a lot to be played, but particularly for the two confederations that we're zeroing in on here today in Asia and in South America, there's just not a lot of time left after this this window is over. And because of that, the pressure is definitely starting to hit around the margins, and and that's what we're here for, and that's what we're looking for.
00:01:34
Speaker
So let's look quickly as we always do it at what we've got in the slate here. We've got match days 11 and 12 in Conable Qualifying. That means that we're gonna hit the two thirds point of Conable Qualifying. We'll have played 12 with six to go by the end of this November window. In Asia, match days five and six of the 10 match day group stage.
00:01:52
Speaker
So we will hit the halfway point there. And in Oceania, the group stage will wrap up. That will mean four teams will be eliminated in 14. So we'll move on to the semifinals in
Key Teams in Conable and Asia
00:02:00
Speaker
March. Like we said, look, at this point, if you've listened to the podcast, if you're a regular listener first, we thank you for listening. You know, the storylines, you know, the characters, we're not introducing anybody new here. Like this isn't, you know, WWE, there's nobody coming in from the top corner. That's like,
00:02:15
Speaker
Oh, it's Germany. No, like they're coming later. Don't worry. They'll come, but not yet. So because of that, I mean, I think the best thing to do on this podcast is rather than trying to go big picture and talk about every match we're going to see, let's zero in on I think the teams that are going to, that have the most at stake here in this window, right? And we can touch on some of the other stuff that'll be going on, but let's, let's take a look at three teams in Comable and three teams in Asia that you and I have kind of picked out and that we have said, look, these are the three teams and and maybe it's a couple more in Asia that have the most at stake at this window when it comes to qualifying for the World Cup, which is ostensibly what all of this entire process is about, right?
00:02:58
Speaker
Yeah, i mean we've played all these matches so far. We gotta to we gotta to get to the World Cup, right? Like that's like, we've got all of these characters and we've had all these storylines, but at the end of the day, it matters determining who are going to be the 48 teams that make the World Cup. And so let's zero in on those teams. Let's start in Conable. And I think We haven't changed a ton of our priors on Conable. I think you can make cases that some teams have moved up or down a tier slightly from where we were when we started this Conable qualifying over a year ago now. ah But I think that the you and I are both of the opinion here, Amit, and and this could still change. There's still batches to go. There are five teams that we feel comfortable about making the World Cup. Those are Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, and Ecuador. You feel
00:03:44
Speaker
your different stages of comfortable with all of them, but we feel like those are the five teams that will make it. It's going to be difficult for Chile improved. That leaves three teams for one direct spot and one playoff spot. And those teams are Paraguay, Bolivia, and Venezuela. And I think that's where the conversation is at because this is a massive window for all three of those teams.
00:04:03
Speaker
Yeah, we're in complete agreement. ah It's pretty clear stratification. You know, Ecuador is tied on points with Paraguay. And I know we love to say the form of them has been better because they started this whole thing out down a three point deduction. So to this point, they've played three points better than Paraguay. And we think that'll just hold up and on results. Like, I mean, that's the that's what we're saying, like,
00:04:27
Speaker
They're not really going to be an issue. Sure, like something could happen. And maybe they could find themselves in the mock if they have a few you know bad windows here. But um no, those are the three teams. We're excited to
Paraguay's Defensive Strategy
00:04:38
Speaker
talk about them. And um there's some so so is a match between the two of them this window.
00:04:43
Speaker
Yeah. And so let's start with Paraguay who are currently the best placed of the three teams in the table. Paraguay have 13 points and an even goal differential. Bolivia have 12 points and a minus 10 goal differential. Sure. And Venezuela have 11 points and a minus two goal differential. And as you mentioned there, Paraguay and Ecuador are equal on 13 points.
00:05:05
Speaker
So far, why they are undefeated since the arrival of Gustav Alfaro, who, which came after the couple of America, four matches, they've got two wins, two draws, just one goal conceded. They've scored three in that stretch, which doesn't seem like a lot, but they'd scored one goal in six World Cup qualifiers before that.
00:05:21
Speaker
ah If it was possible a bit, Alfaro has made Paraguay more solid defensively and just maybe that slightest bit more capable offensively or at least he's gotten the brakes to go his way and that that has made the difference for Paraguay because they can defend against pretty much anybody. The question comes down to, can they score enough goals to change bad points into three points, right? Like there are good points for Paraguay. You draw Brazil, that's a good point. You draw Peru, that's a less good point, right? So it comes down to, can they find enough goals to change those one point results into three point results
00:06:04
Speaker
and they got a huge three points against Venezuela last time out. So I don't know that Alfaro has done anything miraculous here. I think he's made a fairly solid team be like 7% better. And that 7% has made a massive difference as far as the actual results are concerned.
00:06:22
Speaker
Yeah, I think in a in an underlying numbers kind of way, they would not be kind on to Paraguay if we could get under the hood and look at that stuff. And even just what you said, OK, he showed up, played four games, they scored three and allowed one.
00:06:37
Speaker
ah thats That could all have happened in one game and for anyone else. ah For normal teams. yeah Yeah, for normal teams. So like the the answer is like is, is he totally you know changed the make of the team? No. um But in international soccer, right we're not playing 38 game season.
00:06:56
Speaker
um you know where this is This is an 18-game window, which is pretty big sample size as international soccer goes. But even then, right hit the job for Ophara was even shorter than that. so We talk about this all the time. Why do you managers come in is to try to squeeze that 5-10 percent. and I think, charitably, we could say it's it's opportunistic. or and That would be mean. That would be uncharitable to call it opportunistic. like you know, pejoratively, but like, at the same time, like, that's that's also what he's there to do. um And you talk about the players, like, he's just kind of found goals from guys who are strikers, and Paraguay has played strikers before, and they just didn't score goals. So, like, did he do the right things, or did they just, yeah they were in their right spots at the right time? And again, my my overall, all like, read on it, and having, you know, you go look at the games, you watch the games, and think about them, like,
00:07:53
Speaker
there They're just kind of an opportunistic team. But like that's exactly the job here. And as also a point that we both leave in international soccer, you know things have ah so cycling effects, spiraling effects, positive and negative. And that's why they're in so you know that things are have looked so good.
00:08:15
Speaker
Yeah, and like, all of this really comes down to the fact that Antonio Sinabria, a player that had been frozen out of the Paraguay squad, Alfaro chose to call him back in, and he made good on the bet and scored two goals against, like, this this is what international football is, is it's, all of this goes into one or two slightly stupid moments that make the difference, and like, for Paraguay, it's that,
00:08:40
Speaker
Diego go is this really young, interesting player into Miami, put one in the back of the net from distance against Brazil and Antonio Sinabriac put the ball in the back of the net against Venezuela. And like their entire campaign so far has boiled down to that. And that has completely shifted everything for them. And if you've heard it once, you've heard it a million times on this show.
00:09:00
Speaker
Alfaro's changed the vibe. He's brought the vibes, right? Like he has this ability to come in and be like, look, I've been there. I've done that. Like I know how to get this done. Like that's why you brought me it. You didn't bring me in to revolutionize the sport. You didn't bring me into advanced Paraguayan soccer. I'm not going to develop young players. Like I'm going to play the best players I have. They might be young. They might be old.
00:09:23
Speaker
At the end of the day, I'm here to get a job done, and that is to finish in sixth place, and you know how I'm gonna do that? It's gonna be ugly. You're gonna hate watching it, but at the end of the day, you're gonna love being in sixth place, and that's what Alfaro has done, and admit, I think crucially here, in a race in which the other two teams you're going up against are Bolivia, who have not been there and done that in so long, and Venezuela, who have literally never been there and done that,
00:09:47
Speaker
That matters. That five or 10% that Alfaro can bring absolutely matters. And that has shifted everything for Paraguay and I think has made them the favorites for sixth, which they weren't four matches ago.
Bolivia's High-Altitude Tactics
00:10:02
Speaker
Yeah. And we're going to talk about the next two teams and It's so interesting to to think about that concept because I do think Venezuela venezuela at its core is a slightly more talented team sure than Paraguay, but everything else is working against them. And to to your point exactly, he's put the pressure on Venezuela and Bolivia who are facing, let's be real here, the weight of history, right? yeahp
00:10:32
Speaker
And this is a real thing to try to even in this, you know, expanded format, to try to do something they've never done. And he's a guy that, you know, been to World Cups, um done these kinds of jobs. And i I'm of the mindset, right? You know, talent talent generally, you know, give itself enough time, it plays itself out. We're running out of time for Venezuela and Paraguay just kind of need to hold on.
00:10:55
Speaker
And the other thing is they're built to do that, right right? They're just going to creep creep these points along. think you know I'm not convinced Paraguay is going to roll into this by any means. I don't think it's going to be easy. I think this is going to be a last person standing kind of thing and maybe stumbling to the finish line a bit. And I i just think, you know as we we're going to talk about the next two teams, the pressure is on them to steal this spot from Paraguay. Paraguay are not going to lose it.
00:11:23
Speaker
I don't think Paraguay are going to like roll into points, but I think they're going to, you know, let's say eight matches left here. And what are they on right now? 13.
00:11:36
Speaker
22 23 like what a game point again and like maybe ah a bit better than a point of game and the thing that I think you have to emphasize with Paraguay is they have a chance to get something from every single game and that is a huge motivating factor for like Paraguay start every game at nil nil, and I don't think there's anybody that is better equipped in conmable, at least in this tier of conmable, to see that result out and take that point home with them. And that is a bigger margin of error, right? yeah It takes a lot to undo a Paraguay defense. And the teams that are equipped to do it are also less interested by the window in doing it, which is another point here. So like, yeah, they that's the other thing we're like,
00:12:22
Speaker
over the course of an 18-game window, is one goal a game enough to to get you those three points whenever you do score? No, but it's all kind of timed well for this Alfaro ball to like... They have made their goals count, right? Like they don't score without it meaning something. And that's that's a huge deal. ah So this this is a huge window for far away because they have another of those massive opportunities. They get Argentina at home to to open things up on on Thursday night.
00:12:50
Speaker
ah Paraguay have actually played Argentina fairly well in Ascentiรณn recently. They've taken points in five of their last six but World Cup qualifiers against Argentina in Ascentiรณn. Back to back, Neil Mill draws. Look, Paraguay are gonna take that. They can get a Neil Mill draw against Argentina on Thursday. That's a result that they will absolutely take. And look, it's it's the point that you just made, Amit. The teams that are best equipped to break down Paraguay are, as these match days go along, less and less interested in doing it.
00:13:18
Speaker
Right? Like they have less and less pressure to do it. Argentina are going to the World Cup. They're going to the World Cup from the second this World Cup qualification cycle started. On a Thursday night in Asunciรณn in the middle of November when all of these guys were in the middle of these club seasons. Well, not messy because Miami's out of the MLS playoffs, but that's for a different show. Like are Argentina that interested in doing all the grime and luck that you have to do to get this result? Maybe, but probably not. Right? And that works in Parkwise favor.
00:13:49
Speaker
Yeah, the the answer is probably not. So um I listen, I do think at some point, like the bounces have gone for Paraguay and they're going to go against Paraguay. But, you know, especially in the games where they were like against the good teams where they might not be interested and they have them at home, like can they kind of just, you know, not get a, you know, a galazzo from an Argentina player?
00:14:15
Speaker
like and just make them have to really earn something. they don't get a bad if they Can they capitalize as long as they keep not getting the bad balances? A bad game happens, you lose a bad game. okay But like when things are set up for you, hold on. Hold on for dear life. and that's what like Can they do that? Well, that's what they've done so far. 00, I think, is the aim here, right? like Yes. What else is there?
00:14:38
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, I think that's, that's the goal for far away. Like, look, they're, they're going to look to hit out on the counter. They have, if you squint, there's enough talented players here, right? Like like they got Al Marone, Diego Gomez, Dami Ambo with the act are two fairly and intriguing young midfielders. We talked a bit about Sanabria, like they have it enough that, you know, with the two and a half chances they get, they can do something. And of course that piece is always a huge deal. Although against Argentina, that's a bit more difficult.
00:15:03
Speaker
but But look, yeah, like nil, nil, the neutral result here would be a good result for Paraguay. And like you said, it's just keep grabbing those points because they all add up eventually. The second game for Paraguay, we'll talk about a bit in the next section. It's Bolivia away. It's maybe not as tough as it gets, but it might be as tricky as it gets.
00:15:19
Speaker
And that, and it, is gonna be another game where Parwire gonna sign on a draw, right? Like, at this point, Parwire probably taking a draw in what? Like, six of their last eight games, if you offer it to them? Argentina at home, Uruguay at home, like, maybe Chile at home and Ecuador at home, where the two games are like, ah, we should probably go win one of those, but Parwire probably always gonna take a point. I think so. I mean, they're trying to steal one of those somewhere, they're trying to, but like,
00:15:49
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, we're on the same page. I don't like, unless they start getting goals opportunistically in places we're not expecting. And of course that's what they want to do, but they just, they're not built to do that. Very interestingly, as we wrap up here on Parway, Ecuador at home and Peru away are their last two World Cup qualifiers. Those could be big matches. And that might be the point where the pressure is actually on them to have to go get three points. But we're a long way away from that, just looking ahead at the calendar because that's what we'd like to do.
00:16:16
Speaker
So we wanted the second team here in Kabul, and it's Bolivia. and And look, a bit, you have to respect the fact that Bolivia's reaction to to fading home form wasn't to like get better at football or like develop talent or anything. It was just like, ah, we just gotta go higher. That's how we fix all this. We just go higher up the mountain. And that's what they did, and it kinda worked. And look, it's reductive, it's simplistic, but welcome to Bolivia in football. This team is gonna go as far as El Alton takes them. They got three points in Santiago,
00:16:43
Speaker
that is already more than than really could have been expected. Look, I've said this a lot about Bolivia. They they tend to hit a purple patch at every single qualifying cycle. There's a point in every qualification cycle where they scoop up 10 points from four and you start doing the math, right? They get within shouting distance of the qualification spots. You start crunching numbers. You count up some home games. You're like, ah, if they could just keep this home form, They're just gonna need maybe, you know, wonders all the way from home and then do everything at home and they'll get it done. And then they always, without fail, they fade. And last time around, that was match day 13. They had just smoked O2Y3 at home. And then they went into the next window. They went to Venezuela with hope and then they got smashed. They got beat 4-1 and then they ended up losing a whole match against Chile. And that was the end of ah of Bolivia in 2022. Is there reason to believe, Amit, that things are different this time around? Maybe.
00:17:41
Speaker
Yeah, I think the biggest thing is that there's more spots for them to get into and that the slide can kind of happen anyway. I mean, you just look at the last game, a 10 man win against Columbia. Yep. Like that's you're using up eight of your nine cat lives right there if you're Bolivia at El Alto. Like so they're they're kind of they all have to be a little Houdini X types of wins and you you're using them. So like I mean, like, yeah, that's that's right. We talked about the recipe. Like the recipe for this bulimia team is like, we're just going to keep taking 40 yard pot shots at 13000 feet and like they're going to keep going in, hopefully. Right. it's It's just it's just a fundamentally like unsound way to try to to pick up points. But like it's also their best way. ah They've they've come to that conclusion with years of evidence.
00:18:31
Speaker
ye So like that's what it is. And you look at the matches and you're like, yeah, we don't really have a choice. We've just got to do this at home, doing it our way. And you know in terms of on and tops of the pot shots, we're going to run our hearts out. like We're going to really run our hearts out and bring teams to places they don't want to go. You look at the matches. I still think you know the margin for error is so tight if you if you want to talk about the point total in a second that they need to get to.
00:19:01
Speaker
i they're just gonna have to keep doing Columbia type things and not just once they need two more ah kind of improbable wins could they get one of them sure so if you're telling me out of these three teams Venezuela Bolivia program who's most likely to finish an eighth I'm still saying Bolivia and that this their slide that always happens is still going to happen. But if you want the best reason why, it's that, OK, can they slide into seventh? And as if you have as you as you have have even said, that's not a good thing for them. They want to get in directly. They don't want a non-LLTO playoff. That's not going to help them. Right. And so, yeah, ah a lot to break down there. One of the biggest things is, like you said, of all these teams, Bolivia are the most under pressure to finish in sixth.
00:19:46
Speaker
If you put Paraguay in an intercontinental playoff, they can hold their own. They can mock and grind their way. And they might even be favored. If you put Bolivia in an intercontinental playoff, I don't like their chances because they're probably going to run up against a team that's going to make life difficult for them. So that reduces their margin of error a little bit. And again, The things that are working for them are like what you said. Six teams qualify, not four this time around. That's a huge deal. That's a huge deal because that's just more teams, obviously. And the part of the equation that always seems to fail is they have to do something away from home eventually at some point, right? Well, they don't because they already did.
00:20:22
Speaker
They did the dirty work away from home. They've gotten the three points away from home. That's more than they've ever gotten in a World Cup qualification cycle. No, I'm legitimately serious. Since they qualified for the World Cup in 1994, here are Bolivia's away point totals. Two, zero, two, one, zero, two, one. That is 1.14 away points per cycle.
00:20:41
Speaker
Well, they've topped that, they've got three, they're ahead of schedule, right? that That's a big deal. The things that are working against them is objectively the fact that they are Bolivia and their recipe is just so off the wall while it's just, it's not replicable and it's just not generally, it shouldn't be sustainable, right? And it hasn't been sustainable for any entity in Bolivian football and that is is the big problem here. So this is a huge window because they're all gonna be huge windows.
00:21:09
Speaker
First things first, they go away to Ecuador on Thursday. This is technically a direct head-to-head matchup. They're one point back of Ecuador. This is a theoretical rival for qualification. Ecuador, look, we play 4D chess in Codoval, right? We play 4D chess. Ecuador generally play their matches at Quito, which is about 8,000 feet of altitude. It is altitude, but it is not at the level that Bolivia play at. Ecuador are scared of Bolivia's altitude, so they're moving the match to sea level in Guayaquil. They're like, ah, we don't want them to have any ah any altitude benefits. So they are playing this match on what they think is an even playing field.
00:21:41
Speaker
Ecuador are very heavy favorites to win if you look at the betting markets and they will probably win and they will probably win by a lot. And that again will be another check mark off for Bolivia, right? They lose another one of those those away chances to do something. And then it's the match that we touched on when we talked about Afaras Paraguay.
00:22:01
Speaker
Tuesday afternoon in L-Alto, so it's Paraguay at home. It might be as big of a match as we get in this, in this Comable cycle. Bolivia will most likely be coming off of a heavy away defeat. Paraguay, we're not sure what they'll be coming off of. Perhaps there's a point, perhaps there's a loss, but this is Bolivia's chance, right? This is their chance to jump in front of Paraguay, perhaps in the standings and then see it out down the stretch over six matches. It doesn't get any bigger than Bolivia, Paraguay and L-Alto on Tuesday at five in the afternoon.
00:22:32
Speaker
Austin, you like, ah you like battleship? Yeah. That's what this game is going to be. These guys are just going to pick spots from 30 yards out and just take turns, right? Because there's not going to be any other real estate available to get a good shot from.
00:22:47
Speaker
ah This is going to be something. ah i you know I don't know. i truly You could tell me almost any outcome for this game. I think Paraguay are clearly the better team. The altitude, we know what it does for Bolivia. ah We know how hard it is. um I don't think the the result before matters for Paraguay. No, it won't for Bolivia either, right? like it just oh well Of course, it yeah, that one doesn't for sure. so like This is going to be pure chaos off the wall ball and no lead is safe either because it doesn't really change the game plan.
00:23:18
Speaker
um Yeah, we'll see. I mean, this is gonna be theater. I wanna to believe in Bolivia. I think what's tough too is that, like, Alfaro is not gonna come in being, like, naive about it. Like, he's gonna tell his guys to close even the even farther. So, like, no this is gonna be a really, really mucky game and a really intense game. Really physically.
00:23:46
Speaker
like challenges everywhere up and down the field. this is This is Bolivia's life or death. Still, every game at home is that way. So it should be something. And the big picture, and you touched on this a bit, the big picture of Bolivia is this. If you remember all the way back to last September when we recorded our Conable preview podcast, you and I sat down and we ran the numbers. What Conable qualifying has been, it's not necessarily predictable, but it has been the same format for so long that we actually have a database here that we can look at and say, okay, what does it actually take to do this?
00:24:18
Speaker
And to finish in sixth place, you had to get 24 points. You had to get 1.34 points per game. To finish in seventh place, you had to get 1.16 points per game. That's 21 points. Bolivia have 12 points. It comes out of this. Can they find 12 more? They've got four matches at home. Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, and Brazil on the final match day in what is, on the penultimate match day, I should say, what is probably going to be a very disinterested, very rotated Brazil side. And they have four away matches. Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela, Colombia.
00:24:49
Speaker
10 points at home plus one or two points away, particularly when you look at that Peru match and maybe Venezuela, that's not outlandish, right? we We'll have a really better idea after this game first part. Absolutely. I think so much of it hinges there because Uruguay and Brazil are the two ones, even a rotated Brazil that you're just going to take some some special you know magic, whatever you want to say.
00:25:15
Speaker
Yeah, and you already did that against Colombia, right? Yeah. like But if you have the three points against Paraguay, then you're really like, again, you're just banking on the effort discrepancy between yourself and an Uruguay who ye you know they don't want anything to do with this qualification cycle anymore. Same exact thing with Brazil. you know chile um Chile at that point might be you know bags packed ah mentally everywhere. so yeah it's this one for sure is is the big one and then yeah you know you can go to Peru go to Venezuela try your best if you play your hardest you could steal a point on any day ah in South America against those teams so it it's so much of it really hinges on this because if they lose
00:25:57
Speaker
it's so hard to get the math. Like they're not, they're not going to give up. Of course there's still a story left to play, but none of it works without three points here. That's a very good way of putting it, right? Like we're coming off election season, like the math doesn't work without Pennsylvania,
Venezuela's Historical Challenges
00:26:13
Speaker
right? Like like that's what it is for Venezuela here, right? Like And you yeah these are the, like you have to have these three points because it's, you just can't do it without putting these three in the bank. So yeah, it's a, it's a huge batch. And, and that I think is the chief difference between Venezuela and Paraguay, right? Paraguay don't need the point against like,
00:26:34
Speaker
it would make things objectively, significantly easier if they can keep Bolivia from getting three points. But even if they don't, there's still a path for Paraguay to make it in sixth. All right. The third and final of these comparable teams we want to talk about here is Venezuela. mean They are your darlings, but maybe they are also Paraguay in reverse because they are six matches without a win in qualification since they beat Chile three nil.
00:26:53
Speaker
There have been three draws in that stretch. It's not terrible. They're hanging around, but it's not great, and it's been made worse because Parwai and Bolivia have found four, and that has really tightened things up here.
00:27:08
Speaker
Yeah, I think the Paraguayan reverse thing is a great point. And to me, the biggest thing is, sure, we believe in Venezuela, believe in them being slightly more talented than Paraguay. you know They've shown themselves to be a really, really good team, ups our team. This could be their window. And I think the big difference is that Venezuela's talent is an attack, and Paraguay schematically are built sound in the back. sure And that's just You know, even if they're equal talent in the way South American soccer works, like it, it just going to reward you to be stable and solid. And so they've just, you know, they they they were always going to struggle conceding goals. And the issue for them or the answer for them, this cycle has been, well, we still got a few difference makers and attack more than the teams around us.
00:27:57
Speaker
And that went dry a bit, or even they use those difference making moments to get points and not three points. Meanwhile, Gustavo Alfaro can waltz in and get three goals and you know all the wins. So like they're just playing they're playing different games.
00:28:13
Speaker
They're playing different types of games. And it's not a place you want to be if you're Venezuela. And all you can really do is just put your head down and say, we have to bank on our attacking talent, scoring us two to three goals a game. We've got to keep using the ball. We've got to keep playing smart. Cannot lose our heads at any point. And that, to me, is the big question, right? Because they've never done this. we know ah We've seen Venezuela lose their heads. And I don't mean that in a mean way. it's just it's It's hard. It's really hard.
00:28:43
Speaker
for for them to do this so we're gonna we're gonna see what happens and you look at the window right here okay Brazil at home Chile away Two isn't enough. ah It just isn't enough. It's three somewhere. And it probably isn't Brazil, but there's no easy road trips either. So you're going to have to show us something. And the longer it goes, right the more the belief erodes. I'm sure in the camp right now, they're all having like a real inwards looking moment of like, if not now, when? For history. Yeah. And the and the thing is, right?
00:29:22
Speaker
They got spotted a 1-0 lead in a direct head-to-head match away against Paraguay and they couldn't even see it out for a point.
Saudi Arabia vs Australia: A Tactical Battle
00:29:29
Speaker
Like, ah, that's just gonna be really hard to come back from because those points are gonna make a huge difference here. And look, yeah, there's opportunity this window. Venezuela have played well at home. They're unbeaten at home so far.
00:29:41
Speaker
They take a point from Brazil at home, that's a good result. And then they gotta do something away from home, which they haven't been great at doing, but Chile is absolutely gettable because Ricardo Garica is still somehow in charge. He called Arturo Vidal into the squad this time around, which is just like, sure, he's just asking for trouble to happen.
00:29:58
Speaker
And I'll say this, like, two is okay if you're gonna finish seventh and Bolivia slip up somewhere. But yeah to flip things on Paraguay, right, you need three points somewhere. You need three points somewhere. i think yeah i think Four is the goal here. Four is the goal here, I agree. And just to the other thing is like... OK, Bolivia don't want to feel so good in seventh. Venezuela can like yeah talk themselves into that. So I do think like I've said that a lot of times, like you just got to stick with the project. um But this is this is it right here. And that's and that's a really good point. Yeah, that's a really good point is that Venezuela need to.
00:30:39
Speaker
keep in mind that they can't let the spiral out of control. Like at the end of the day, worst case scenario, you're still chasing Bolivia for seven. Like you can still do that. Like, okay, maybe Alfaro has turned Paraguay around and they're just going to slowly but surely run and hide from you point by point. Even still chase down Bolivia for seven and you have a chance to make the World Cup and that would be historical.
00:31:04
Speaker
but we just said it. we We made the whole case for Bolivia and it basically came down to they need to pull magic out of a hat like two more times. So like don't like just stay on them, right? Like that's the case for Venezuela. Yeah. So it's, yeah, it's, it's, it's super interesting. Um, I, this is again, look at this point in colorful qualifying for these teams, every match is huge because it's an opportunity to change the narrative and to change where you're at in the table. So,
00:31:29
Speaker
This is going to be a great window. I'm really looking forward to it. ah We didn't touch on a big Uruguay Columbia game on Friday. I think it's going to be fascinating to see where Uruguay are at with this whole DLS situation. Peru, Chile, loser leaves town on on Friday in Lima as well. That's a good game. And and then on the back end, Brazil, Uruguay is a good game. Uruguay are an interesting team in this window. I think we're going to have a ah good chance to talk about them on the back end here when when we see what these results actually actually come out to.
00:31:56
Speaker
oh We'll put Kyle on the side now. Let's move to to Asia a minute. And there are, I think, you know probably five teams that are really interesting in Asia this window. We're going to zero in on three of them. And in doing so, I think we'll touch on the other two. Let's start with with Saudi Arabia, who who will play Australia away on Thursday and Indonesia away on Tuesday.
00:32:17
Speaker
They're at a three-way tie with with Australia Bahrain for second place in the group behind Japan who look like they're gonna run away with that automatic qualifying spot. It has not been a great qualification cycle for Saudi Arabia particularly in this second round. And so now Roberto Mangini is off to sweat somewhere else or hopefully for him not. And who is that walking in the door to manage the Saudi Arabia national team of it? It's our old friend, Hev Renard.
00:32:44
Speaker
Just a cult hero of the World Cup After Dark podcast. And we're so happy to have- He will not be sweating in Jetta. He just won't. I don't care how- No, he's going to look perfectly manicured because that's what he does. He looks like a supervillain. I don't know what to tell you. It's incredible. Yeah, we're happy to have him back. Saudi Arabia was desperate to have him back. Yeah.
00:33:08
Speaker
um They need him to to try to... ah The goal for him and for Saudi Arabia is to finish second. They don't want to be a third in the next round where it's going to be tough. I think a good team is going to go home in that round. um They don't want it to do that. If Saudi Arabia were in the next round, again, the third and fourth place teams.
00:33:27
Speaker
They could still get through, but the goal here is to get in second. And so basically you're looking at Australia and Bahrain, and you're trying to to finish above them in the in the back half of this. And what we get here is a really, really big, not the biggest, because they're going to play again, but a really, really big game in Australia against Australia. This is a two game road trip window.
00:33:49
Speaker
This is tough for Saudi Arabia, and they're also without maybe one of their best attackers or second best players, Salim al-Dasari, who who's out with injury. You know, I think Hermannard's up against it. but Let's start there.
00:34:03
Speaker
Yeah. So you said it. This is not going to be the biggest game between these two teams because they're going to play on the last match day as well, which is probably going to potentially be a World Cup qualification spot. But this is going to set the tone for what's to come because they're tied on points. And so if these two teams play out a knock it out, play chicken, nobody really wants to do anything, draw. Okay. All's even.
00:34:28
Speaker
If hevernard comes in Saudi Arabia, new manager bounce their way to three points. All right, advantage Saudi Arabia. If Australia continue their new manager bounce with probably, okay, advantage also that this is setting the tone for these five matches to come. And it's going to determine who has a mulligan, who has the pressure, or if they're just going to continue on this collision course and they're going to figure it out in the last match day in Saudi Arabia.
00:34:51
Speaker
Yeah, really well said. It's going to mean a lot. It's not going to mean the most, but it it sets the table for everything to come. yep And it's a big one. And I think what's funny here is like Australia just did this a window ago with Popovic. And they hoping they hoped that he would you know just kind of set the team back to basics, you know, come in, discipline, soccer. We're going to get back to defending. We're just going to take care of our easy points. And we just hope a new manager kind of revitalizes our squad. Again, you can't change the squad. Saudi Arabia is like, we like what you did. We're going to do the same exact thing with this guy who got us to the last World Cup. We're going for the same exact play. But the the issue, the issue is that, you know, what did we see from Renard Saudi Arabia in
00:35:40
Speaker
Qatar in 2022 and Qatar in 22 and even before that, right? Yeah. Is that absolutely the basics are like can play good things and can also just give you 30 seconds. But what they're banking on, and I think it's it's a good bank, Saudi Arabia are like a lot of these Asian teams really good at playing teams that are at or below their level. And that is what Asian qualifying is for Saudi Arabia.
00:36:07
Speaker
Okay, they have to play Japan, and Japan are at a level that are higher than them. But other than that, they're not gonna play a team that can ask questions of them like other teams can. And so, if you say to Hevernard, just go make this team do things, and at the end of the day, we'll end up on the plus side of more score lines than we end up on the negative side. That's kind of the idea here. And so I'm fascinated to see how this game plays out on Thursday because Logic would dictate that a point is a safe, neutral result for both of these teams. You don't put your qualification hopes in jeopardy. You punt it down the line and we figure it out on the last match day and we just do it over again, right? And at some point, and somebody will come into that last match day with the advantage of playing for a draw and we'll let it all figure it out there.
00:36:54
Speaker
But I don't know that Saudi Arabia can do that. Australia can definitely do that. That is right up their wheelhouse. They will be happy to do that. But can Saudi Arabia pull that off for 90 minutes? And then if they can't, then they have to go do something. And like you mentioned, not having all the sorry is huge because he is probably one of their biggest difference makers in attack. Yeah, this it's really tricky. It it just is for for Saudi Arabia and also for the way Australia play, right? Like I agree with you 100% the thesis of Renard is get Saudi Arabia with the ball, working teams down, good patterns, simple patterns, but they they're gonna use the ball and beat the teams worse than them. Australia,
00:37:36
Speaker
ah worse, not worse. I don't know. Like I think the players in Australia are are, it's a different pedigree. I think generally at this point though, like Australia might be a little better on talent, but certainly they don't play the way that other Asian teams play. They're one of the most against the ball teams in Asia. So how does Renard try to do that? Um, does he, does he just say we're going to go full muck or is he like,
00:38:01
Speaker
I'm here to do what I'm here to do. like We're going to have to try to make us play. And I do worry that that plays in Australia's hands. He's going to say, all right, beat us with the ball for 90 minutes. You're going to make a mistake. We're going to pick you off. And we're going to score on a counter and a cross. right yeah like This is simple for ah Popovic at home. he's He's got a very easy game plan. Renard's got the challenge. Even if at home you think the pressure is on the home team, I think it's the other way. right Yeah. And like Australia are familiar with the work of the Saudi Arabian defense here, right? Like right give them enough time and you're going to get an opportunity and you can put
Qatar's Qualification Struggles
00:38:37
Speaker
it in the back of it. So it's it's a fascinating game. I think it's probably one of the biggest games in Asia in this window. and And I think we're both really looking forward to it quickly on the rest of the group. As we said, Japan are running away with it. ah Some opportunity here for for for Bahrain. They play China at home and then they play Australia at home. That has all the makings of a big game.
00:38:56
Speaker
um So yeah, let' but let's see what happens there. Bahrain are in this conversation as well, and they're going to do it by trying to be organized and and pick up points and take advantage of Australia and Saudi Arabia's kind of chaos, right?
00:39:07
Speaker
Yeah, Bahrain are solid. Again, we don't you know favor them. But like sure, exactly what you said. do Take care of business and see where you are in the last two, three match days. You never know. And just to finish on Saudi Arabia, I mean, without without it goes without being said. But like you have to get the road three against Indonesia. Yes. yep And it's trickier than it ever has been. I don't think it's going to be ah hard, right relatively. like You have to do it.
00:39:34
Speaker
but If it is hard, figure it out, right? that's the ye if you if they especially Especially if they lose to Australia or even a point and yet something happens in Indonesia, they're really going to be against the eight ball with not that many matches left.
00:39:51
Speaker
Right. Yeah. It's going to be two windows at the end of this window, right? Like that's all you have to try and turn it around. I don't think you want to be trying to turn around three points. That's a very good point. Let's move to the other of the the big teams in in Asia that have been in trouble. And that's Qatar who are six points back of Uzbekistan in Iran. They're tied with the UAE for third. They're in fourth on gold differential. They're a point ahead of Kyrgyzstan in two ahead of North Korea. They admit are unquestionably in the sweatiest situation of the big Asian teams.
00:40:21
Speaker
And they have Uzbekistan at home to start this window. We talked about this a lot in October. It was not a good window for Qatar. This match against Uzbekistan on Thursday, and then the match against the UAE away on Tuesday, it's about as big of a window as you get at this stage of qualifying. And I think anything less than six points in Qatar are going to have a really hard time finishing in second in this group.
00:40:45
Speaker
Yeah, they are. And it's not looking great. I mean, even just to start, I think, to inform the discussion, like the betting odds don't want to favor either team at home for Qatar versus Kyrgyzstan. And Qatar needs to win. Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan, sorry. Got your stands mixed up. I did. I did. Uzbekistan are good. um And the question was, can Uzbekistan be better than Qatar in this sample size? And talent-wise, like,
00:41:12
Speaker
I don't know. I don't think it matters. Uzbekistan have been really solid and Qatar have been poor. um yeahp So there's so much pressure at home for Qatar to do ah to to pull this off. and And the other thing with Qatar is they're just, we know what they are. they That's what's tough for them is what buttons can they press to fix the slide?
00:41:34
Speaker
they ah have two outstanding star players they can use the ball and they are absolutely chaotically bad in defense and mentally they're so-so at best. And they're kind of an aging a stale core. So when you're a team like this, you you just you kind of have to just really lock in and have your star players lead you. And they're going to need moments of star player brilliance to break down a very, very committed physical and physical in a way that Qatar is not going to like ah team.
00:42:14
Speaker
And in four matches, Katar have kept zero clean sheets, right? And that's with matches against Kyrgyzstan. They got a 3-1 win against Kyrgyzstan last time out. They didn't look great in doing it. And then they just got dismantled 4-1 by Iran in a match that really illustrated the the gap between those two teams.
00:42:31
Speaker
And this is a huge matchup against Uzbekistan, and it's a huge matchup for both sides because, much like the Australia-Saudi Arabia match, but I think even more so here, this sets the tone for what's to come in this group. If Uzbekistan win in Qatar, it's done. It's over. Like, Qatar making up nine points in five games. Even the point leaves Qatar in a really dicey spot for getting top two. Truly, like, Uzbekistan have earned it's not even it's not even the same as the other one like Uzbekistan already our leg up in the first meeting right they already got the pressure heading in heading into it so it's it's gotten bad fast already it's how it is.
00:43:09
Speaker
And you you mentioned the odds. Nobody favored in this match is Begga Stan have slightly better odds to win. And it was Begga center coming into this with two potential results that are positive for them. Right? Like, like you said, a point has them in really good shape. A win and Qatar simply put are not catching them. And then for Qatar, admit the thing that I think is, is interesting here is All right, let's say they come out, they put it together, they come out, they get a big win against Uzbekistan. Follow that up and it's a tricky match against the UAE who smashed them 3-1 from behind in the first time they played. This is a difficult window for Qatar and
00:43:46
Speaker
The outcomes here are wide and varied, right? Qatar could come out of this with six points and be squarely in the conversation to finish top two, or they can come out of this window legitimately with none and looking at themselves saying, oh shoot, we have to hold off and or catch Kyrgyzstan in North Korea to even get into the next round of qualifying. It doesn't get any bigger than this.
00:44:08
Speaker
It doesn't. It doesn't. And that's good stuff. And I think what's interesting is Qatar at times have shown the DNA of a really strong, you know, top dog in Asia, right? They've they've won asian asian yeah yeah yeah they want Asian cups. They have two of, you know,
00:44:26
Speaker
the best players aren't who aren't playing in the european top leagues in a thief and a lee and we say their names you know them they're good um and then at other times they they really are a team that looks
Iraq vs Jordan: A Qualification Showdown
00:44:37
Speaker
disinterested lose focus uh unserious i don't mean that in like a like a silly way i mean then like a like why are you losing three one uh up home uh against ua kind of way and so like they're just yeah I think the wide range announcement was so good. If both of us had to pick, like what what how does it go? I don't know. I could give you guesses. But if you told me, okay, Qatar got it together, I'd be like, okay, they had it in them. But if you said they collapsed spectacularly, I'd say, well, they certainly had that in them too. And I'm laughing because I you know i don't trust them. But we have to also give them respect for the good things that they've they've pulled off too. right like Maybe this is their
00:45:19
Speaker
you know, they're, they're pretty well managed, right? I think like they, ah for, for a team in Asia, like the pedigree's there, like they could have the answers. Yeah. and And the thing is the team's asking the questions are good. They're not pushovers. Uzbekistan, right? There's the attack, the attacking talent is there in Uzbekistan, like a player, like Shomorov, he's looking at this Qatar back line and it's just like, yeah, man, the ball is going to fall to me in a dangerous situation three and a half times if I'm just there. And so because of that,
00:45:49
Speaker
to make the margin of error a lot smaller for guitar because they probably have to score multiple goals in this game. um Yeah, I'm really looking forward to this. The rest of this group, Iran, we feel like are are in good shape. They play Korea away in Laos and then Kyrgyzstan away. Those are tricky road matches, but Iran are significantly better than both of those teams and are playing from an advantageous pot. let Let's check in on Iran at the end, but I'm i'm pretty confident.
00:46:16
Speaker
Yeah, Iran have earned the benefit of the doubt. um And they're really, really at a different level. um They should be fine. Yeah.
00:46:27
Speaker
All right. The last group that we're going to talk about the last team that we want to zero in on is Iraq, where it's even captured our hearts at the Asian cup in January. They are tied for second behind South Korea in group B with seven points, but they are behind Jordan as it stands on gold differential. There are four points ahead of Kuwait and Oman. We said it when this group was drawn, this felt like it was going to be a head to head battle between Iraq and Jordan for the second spot directly into the world cup.
00:46:52
Speaker
We've called it a 50-50 toss-up since the start. Guess what? i mean It's time to find out because these two teams are playing for the first of two times in the group stage. Iraq hosts Jordan on Thursday. Then on Tuesday, Iraq will go to Amman while Jordan will go to Kuwait. This is like those other games that we've talked about, the way that this format shakes out. These two teams will meet again on the last match day. It's way too early for the team who wins this match to consider themselves safe, but it is a tone setter and it will be very good for the team who gets three points if if if either of them get three points. Yeah, ah this is a chance for Rock at home to to put the total standing pressure
00:47:31
Speaker
mental pressure on the team that's a little worse than them. um This is Iraq's chance. Of course, you if you lose at home, think about the mental boost that Jordan would feel the rest of the way up here. So I think the the pressure is on Iraq. They are the better team. I think we expect them to win. And we kept saying, like we think Iraq is slightly better than Jordan, but we do need to see it.
00:47:56
Speaker
I mean, to me, that's the simplest way to look at this. Like, yeah, they are who we think they are. And Iraq certainly has better players, a better roster. um i Even in defeat against South Korea, I think they showed you like there's just some top end to higher end talent here that Jordan has not enough of. Right. OK, well, this is when we see it. And so I'm expecting Iraq to to to get three points here. um Even if they don't write, they're still enough that they could come back.
00:48:26
Speaker
but um this this should be ah where they put the foot forward. Yeah, I mean, it starts with Hussein, right? Like he is the talisman, he is the goal scorer, he is the difference maker. And like I said, Iraq just have slightly more difference makers that than Jordan too. Like Altamari, Al-Namat, good players for Jordan. They can make a difference, but Iraq are just that like five to 10% better kind of up and down the squad, particularly in the midfield. You look at the, like we mentioned Hussein already,
00:48:56
Speaker
That's the difference that a rock have to get from this match. They need to make that five to 10% count and they need to make it count in the form of goals. And that's super reductive, but that's what this comes down to is a rock need to be the better side. We think they are the better side. All right, go score and be the scoring team.
00:49:13
Speaker
Odds here, a rock slightly favored in this match against Jordan. Three points goes a long way to this group. And I think this group, like this match determines who gets to play for the draw on the last match day, most likely, right? Like that's probably what this is going to come down to.
00:49:28
Speaker
Yeah, I think Jordan's going to make Iraq work for it. And like you said, like put the pressure on those players ah to deliver. um But they should. And I think if you give ah Hussein you know two, three chances, four chances, he's going to do them. He's been in form in international matches. He's always been you know um always been he's been for a while now a prolific player in this format. Yeah.
00:49:51
Speaker
so um lets Let's see it happen. And Jordan, I think, are just going to you know make it really hard, try to get counters the other way. And we'll see if Iraq like really ah commit numbers as the game goes on. That's an interesting little wrinkle, as always, in these kinds of games. But ah you know if I had to had to say it, I'd probably lean Iraq 2-0 type of thing. We'll find out.
00:50:15
Speaker
Absolutely massive day on Thursday, right? Those are three just critically huge matches in Asia early morning Australia Saudi Arabia that big Qatar Uzbekistan match and then that Iraq Jordan match other interesting games as well South Korea have it have a two-game road swing here in Kuwait and Palestine South Korea are fairly comfortable on points Those tests can be tricky. They're gonna see low blocks. They're gonna have to break it down you and I have have been Okay, with South Korea, we haven't been blown away. It's it's not like they're they're they they're playing the the best football we've ever seen, but I think this window will be the window where they open up that breathing space and and they kind of have that gap in margin area down the stretch. 100%. Let's see if they can get at least three, four. Again, we're not worried. We won't be surprised, but if if we have to worry about them, but I don't think either of us are expected.
00:51:06
Speaker
Yeah, and then obviously the the Kuwait on Palestine battle to be the worst team to advance the next round. We'll also continue to to pick up points for for those teams in this round. so So let's see what happens there. Quickly a bit to close. It's the oceanic bumper cars. You got a team you want to you got you got a team you want to zero in on here.
00:51:23
Speaker
No, I got nothing. I think um I've put my my stakes on Fiji to be the team to give the best challenge to New Zealand in the final day a game that they will have to win if they get there. But um you tell me when they get there.
00:51:39
Speaker
Roy Cristo, we love Roy Cristo. Here's what's at stake in Oceana. It's matchdays two and three. If you want something to do with your weekend nights on Saturday night, turn on some Oceana qualifying. you You won't find anything better. um Group A, New Caledonia and Fiji both won their first two matches. Those teams will play on the last matchday. So there's a possibility that if New Caledonia and Fiji both win their first two matches, they will both just straight up advance and it'll be a six, six zero, zero group.
00:52:06
Speaker
Same issue in group B where I think Vanuatu and New Zealand are probably the two best teams there. They will actually play in the middle match day. So there could be some intrigue on the last match day, particularly maybe Vanuatu Tahiti, because I think some of are are probably the worst team. So that's what to watch out for their Solomon islands were, were highly ranked ish of the bumper cars. So.
00:52:25
Speaker
Is there a bounce back opportunity for them against new Caledonia in the first match and then a chance to, to maybe pick up three points and put some pressure on against. So that's what's to watch out for in Oceania a minute. And I will be back on the back end next week, man, it's just, it's going to be a great window. I'm very excited. And we're at the point now where.
00:52:44
Speaker
You don't have, I don't know, the games that you need to follow are pretty clear, right? Like it's like, ah, you got this one, this one, this one. And then you just kind of see what what happens. And that's what makes an international qualification great. So we're certainly looking forward to this window. 100%, big day Thursday and a few good ones, um maybe less so in Asia, sure we'll find out, but in Tuesday in South America for sure as well. So buckle up.
00:53:10
Speaker
Uh, 3, 10 AM central time, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Thursday morning. I mean, just so that you're aware of what times we're working with you might have to catch the highlights on that one. Yeah. I mean, we, you want me to send an alarm. It's not good. I'm going to sleep through it. It's true. It's true. It's true. All right. Well, thank you as always to you, our listeners. If you'd like what you do, if you want to support what we do, you can find us on patreon.com slash WC, 83 bucks a month.
00:53:35
Speaker
You get access to to the World Cup qualification spreadsheet. All of the information for all of these matches will be there. ah You can follow along and and find links and and streams and and how to watch all those matches, check out all the tables and all that, as well as access to exclusive subscriber-only shows. Again, we'll be back on the back end next week. Enjoy the football. It's gonna be a fun window.