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WCAD 3-30: Mega March Recap
76 Plays2 months ago
Austin and Amit break down (almost) all the action from March's 100+ World Cup Qualifiers. The guys talk the state of the race in Africa, pouring one out for Sudan and Nigeria. Then, the guys celebrate Japan and Iran in Asia while sizing up who will claim the four spots on offer in June. From there, it's over to CONMEBOL where Argentina have qualified, Paraguay continue to impress and Venezuela surge ahead in the race for seventh. Finally, they close with a rapid-fire look at the opening matchups that mattered in UEFA Qualifying.
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Transcript
Introduction and Overview
00:00:01
Speaker
Over the last seven days, we have been witness to 104. one hundred and four That's right, 104 World Cup qualifiers. We are' going to break down all 104 of them, but we're going to sure do as best we can to talk about as many as we can.
Hosts and Theme Introduction
00:00:16
Speaker
This is the World Cup After Dark Podcast. As always, I am Austin Miller, joined by Amit Malik.
00:00:21
Speaker
What a window we had, Amit. 104 matches, lots and lots of goals, lots of late drama. Some bad officiating, celebrations, reinvented celebrations, new takes on old celebrations.
Intensity of World Cup Qualifiers
00:00:35
Speaker
It was a feast of international football, what we had over the last week. Feast is a great word, Austin. Happy to be here with you to break it all down as much as we can. ah This felt like just proper World Cup qualifying with all the different regions going.
00:00:50
Speaker
lot of high stakes, lot of drama. This was this was ah felt super real for me in terms of like... with this The stakes are there. I think that was was big. But then also just you know the madness of it all that we love. that we love We had that in spades.
00:01:06
Speaker
ah So it was a
Key World Cup Qualifiers: Japan, New Zealand, Iran, Argentina
00:01:08
Speaker
delightful feast. I think we got a little bit of everything we were looking for. And um we're getting getting to the business end of so much of what we finally, I think, been trying to figure out.
00:01:19
Speaker
We were right. We're right on a lot of things. and We're not. There's less surprises here. The games are kind of just there's not a lot of surprises. It's more just waiting to see what happens. And it's been fascinating. So sad to get into it.
00:01:32
Speaker
And there's so much that happens. And and it was it was a great juxtaposition. Obviously, March Madness in the U.S. this past week, the big college basketball tournament. And with that. Like you get that feeling where, you know you're focused in, you're locked in on one game. and then also it's like, oh, I got to get to this screen because because so and that was how World Cup qualifying felt this past week, because you're locked in in Africa. And then all of a sudden you get the note. It's like, oh, Iraq gave up a goal of Palestine. It's a one goal game. I got to get there.
00:01:55
Speaker
and So that sort of of drama all around was was certainly the overarching feeling here. The big storyline, of course. What World Cup qualification is all about is, in essence, qualifying for the World Cup, right? and We had four teams do that this past week. Japan, New Zealand, Iran, and Argentina.
Nigeria's Rollercoaster Journey in Qualifiers
00:02:13
Speaker
I don't think there's any surprises among that group, but the fact that they are the first four teams outside of the host to punch their ticket is good. I mean, we're going to talk about a lot on this show, but I thought it would be a good way to open up the show by maybe asking you if you had one moment in particular from the last week that maybe stood out to you more than anything else.
00:02:30
Speaker
For me, have to go to Group C for Chaos in Africa. We have two good Group Cs. And it has to be for our one of our favorite teams to monitor. It's Nigeria.
00:02:40
Speaker
Their second game, you know, they get a great win in the opener. Victor Osman, the talisman, he's saving them. Just so much better than anybody else. So much better than anyone else. They've kind of been struggling through.
Sudan vs South Sudan: An Emotional Match
00:02:52
Speaker
And in game two comes. They're at home. The crowd loves it. Victor Osman scores again. Nigeria is up one. It looks like the whole campaign is righted. Everything is great. No.
00:03:04
Speaker
Zimbabwe late in this match. i don't know if it was stoppage time or right before stoppage time. but get to Gets a goal out of not much. And just to hear the air deflate in that stadium...
00:03:17
Speaker
It was just peak Nigeria. they They're better than everyone. But the simple fact of the matter is that you can't be trusted. They can't be trusted. And Group C remains chaotic. That was just very emblematic of kind of what we were looking for in the preview show. And then to see it happen
Favorite Moments of World Cup Drama
00:03:33
Speaker
that way is ah kind of peak Nigeria. So that for me was my favorite.
00:03:37
Speaker
Do you think Victor Oshiman went back into the dressing room after it was just like, you guys want me to defend too? yeah he, he, something along those lines. I can't, something along those can't do all of this for you guys. and I scored three goals in two games. I single-handedly rescued our campaign. you guys couldn't keep Zimbabwe from scoring in the 90th minute, right? Like that.
00:03:56
Speaker
I think for me, what I love about World Cup qualifying is I love the stories that we get. I love the teams that we get introduced to. I love the teams that maybe don't even end up making the world cup, but capture your hearts along the way. I think Sudan have been that team in this cycle. One of those teams, at least for me, they had this great nail mill draw with Senegal that they ground out. They're in a good spot in the table. They're playing this match against a local rival in South Sudan. They're playing in Libya with all these Sudanese folks in the stands and they're struggling and they're battling and they're scrapping and they finally score
00:04:28
Speaker
And it's like, all right, Sudan, the qualification cycle is still on track. And they get to the end of this match and just in the stupidest way possible, they conceded equalizer. A ah backup goalkeeper flubs it across.
00:04:42
Speaker
A South Sudan defender bikes in an equalizer in the 98th minute. Like, these are things that just aren't supposed to happen, but it did.
Review of African Qualifiers
00:04:50
Speaker
It was heartbreaking for Sudan. It was heartbreaking for me personally as a big Sudan national team supporter. They're still in it, but those moments where just emotion changes, just a snap of a finger, right? I think back to the the Algeria match in the last qualification cycle where they scored what looked to be a goal to send them to the World Cup.
00:05:07
Speaker
Crazy. And then the other team went back. and so Those are the moments that World Cup qualifying is all about. And that's what we're here to break down. So let's do it a bit. We've got a lot to get to. We've got a lot of confederations to get to. I think we should start with Africa. Yeah, there was a lot going on there and a lot of drama.
00:05:21
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's like a good place to start. We both we both were keenly ah keeping up with this region. Yeah, all right. So nine groups in Africa, as we've talked, we've talked about the format a lot. I think the best way to tackle this is to look at the big picture of where we stand in these groups. and I think we can classify these groups in a couple of different ways.
00:05:38
Speaker
The easiest groups to classify are the five groups where seeded, or I'm using the term here near seeded to refer to Ghana, where the seeded or near seeded team has a game plus lead.
00:05:51
Speaker
And what I mean by a game plus lead is they are ahead of the team behind them by three plus points, or by three points with a massive goal differential. There are five teams, I think, that fit that category. Let's start with Egypt in Group A.
00:06:03
Speaker
Six points from six for the Pharaohs. Two nil win over Ethiopia away. One nil win over Sierra Leone at home. It's not most impressive, but they are stout defensively. They have enough talent offensively. And the teams chasing them just simply aren't that good. Burkina Faso were held by Djibouti.
00:06:18
Speaker
They're now five points. We're held by Djibouti for Djibouti's first points here in Group A. ah They're right in the fight for a second. We'll more on that later. Egypt
Standings and Future Matches in African Groups
00:06:25
Speaker
admit are in good shape and they will be punching their ticket at some point here in the near future.
00:06:30
Speaker
Yeah, they aren't particularly great. I think it's a pretty soft group for them. we've We've kind of said that this whole time. That's what you do. you get You get a few easy wins. Not even easy, but just, you know, not really in danger. Burkini Faso is so-so.
00:06:44
Speaker
ah Pretty, honestly, maybe, i don't know if we would' have thought that as a start, but at this point, pretty comfortable second team to have if you're a seeded team. So kudos to Egypt. Yeah, this is pretty straightforward.
00:06:55
Speaker
Yeah, good draw and they're taking care of it. Morocco and Group E also in that category. and Another two wins. They are the only team in African qualifying that still has a 100% record winning all of their games. Niger actually took the lead in that weird match that the Niger hosted in Morocco against Morocco. They took the lead in that game early in the second half. I thought Morocco responded well.
00:07:13
Speaker
There's just simply more talent here than the majority of the teams in Africa. And they use it to their advantage in ways that other teams, Nigeria, maybe don't. I think they're the best team in Africa. They were World Cup semifinalists for a reason.
00:07:24
Speaker
They are now a at nine points clear. Two teams have already dropped out of this group. Morocco need one point to mathematically secure qualification. It was never in doubt. And it certainly wasn't in doubt in this window.
00:07:35
Speaker
Although it was good to see them get tested a little bit. Yeah, I thought that comeback in the final ah few minutes against Niger was really impressive. That's kind of exactly why they they didn't have to show that they were this good, and you know maybe they shouldn't have been one zero down that late, but...
00:07:51
Speaker
Really impressive fight in the way that so many teams in Africa and everywhere struggle to to kick in that extra gear when you need to. And it's one thing to create chances. It's another to finish them, to do both.
00:08:05
Speaker
ah Very rare. hu ah We watched a lot of soccer in this window. This was one of the more impressive spurts we've seen. And I think to the point that only a few teams can really reach that, that height, that level.
00:08:18
Speaker
Um, so yeah, ah with you a hundred percent, uh, this was a silly group, a lot of things contributing to that, but, um, that's what you do when you're Morocco, you, you take care of business and, um,
00:08:31
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know. the The group circumstances are kind of a bummer for everyone else. But even to that point, Niger had a one goal lead. If you you can't take care of it, yeah you don't really deserve much more. And that's that's the reality of it all. So yeah, not so much drama there either in the end.
00:08:48
Speaker
And my my opinion on this is kind of Morocco are the best team in Africa. If they got the easiest draw in Africa, I'm not going complain about that. Right. and i And I think they did. Another team that impressed this window was Algeria in Group G, a 3-1 win away against Botswana, and then a 5-1 thumping over Mozambique, who were the team that were actually
African Teams: Challenges and Performances
00:09:04
Speaker
tied on points with Algeria going into that game.
00:09:06
Speaker
Algeria are actually just three points clear of Mozambique in the standings, but they just beat them by four goals. And they have a plus 11 goal differential. I think they're safe. Also, pour one out for your poor Gidane hype train.
00:09:17
Speaker
A nil-nil draw at home against Somalia and then a 2-1 away loss against Uganda. It is done for them and Algeria are going to win this group. Yeah, frustrating one. i wish ah I'm not going to say I wish I could take it back. I really like them in an AFCON situation.
00:09:33
Speaker
yeah um And they're just a team whose profile I like, but Yeah, I mean, this is ah an unforgiving format. If you can't get three points against the Somalias and Ugandas of the world, and who who are fine teams, but that's the the difference between the top teams in Africa. Africa qualifying is really hard.
00:09:53
Speaker
Yeah. like Gidea I think are good but there's a just another level of discipline and ah toughness you need to get to get these things and I don't I don't think Algeria are very good I will stick saying that when we get down the road to talking about the World Cup field and when they're probably in it they're they're going to be a team I think it's going to be one of the worst teams in the field but To the point, they are very experienced in this format, and they're very good at using the ball, which very few teams in Africa play specifically this style.
00:10:25
Speaker
they they They can just pass it really slick around the box. They can get you into into tough positions, and then they have a you know they get to that best pattern. They're just cutbacks all the time in the box.
00:10:37
Speaker
It's professional stuff from Algeria, so I'll give them that. Good wins. They ran it up too. like That's the sign of a better team, so as much as I want to rag on them, ah fully deserved here for Algeria. Yeah. And, and there's, they're trying to get to that point where they're mixing in some younger players. Right. But still Riyad Mars is, is still a big player for them.
00:10:56
Speaker
Uh, Mohamed Amoura had a hat trick in this game, uh, against Mozambique, the, the Wolfsburg forward. He's only 24. I think he's, he's really going to be a name to watch. They've been comfortable in this group. They had that loss to Ghané, which shows how good Ghané can be, but they've had the consistency outside of that and and they're well-deserving of their, of their nearly secured spot.
00:11:12
Speaker
Tunisia and Group H also in that same category. They're very similar into Algeria. And then I don't think we're going to back them much once they get to the World Cup, but I think we're pretty confident they will get there. They had a 1-0 away win against Liberia to open up this window on Wednesday and then a 2-0 home win against Malawi.
00:11:27
Speaker
They have yet to concede a goal in six matches, which speaks to their defensive solidity. There are four points clear of Namibia who are in second place. I think the second best team in this group of mit is Equatorial Guinea,
00:11:38
Speaker
But unfortunately for them, Emilio Nsue wasn't cleared to play for them in the two games that he won for them. So they had to give up six points. But guess who's back? Having served his suspension, having got his papers in order, it's Emilio Nsue scoring for Equatorial Gade. Six point window for the boys.
00:11:53
Speaker
But the six points that they gave up has them in a bad situation. Yeah, Tunisia fortunate ah for that whole... situation is the best way to describe it.
00:12:03
Speaker
That would have been an interesting challenge. I think I rate Tunisia very similar to Algeria. Probably going to be in the field, probably one of the worst teams in the field. I think they're probably even less higher end talent than Algeria.
00:12:15
Speaker
I came away from what I watched of Tunisia, just not very impressed. They just kind of slog through the game. They use the ball. ah to be fair, to have a good defensive record, it's yeah a lot of teams make mistakes in the back. And if you're going to play a, you know, shut it down ball, um that's a fine way to go here. And that's a good approach to these kinds of matches.
00:12:37
Speaker
um they're They're pretty boring. She's pretty boring. They're not super impressive, but listen, you don't, there's no style points in calf. So yeah, well yeah yeah just like,
00:12:49
Speaker
I don't know. These performances against Liberia and Malawi were not inspiring, but it doesn't it doesn't matter. And it's better to say they're uninspiring than me criticizing them not getting six. So again again, well done. they're They're well on their way.
Group C Chaos: Nigeria and Benin
00:13:03
Speaker
And I think the defensive record is something that sticks out for me, that the zero goals conceded that is going to take you a long way in this confederation, and it can help you be at least semi-competitive at a World Cup. The last team in this situation that's comfortable is Ghana in Group I. Again, they're not actually the seeded team here.
00:13:17
Speaker
Mali had a one-spot advantage of them on ranking, but then they ended up getting drawn together anyway. Ghana smashed Chad 5-0. And while that was happening, Comoros, who had been another one of our our teams that we had backed, one of the smaller teams, got rocked by Mali 3-0.
00:13:31
Speaker
It was probably just a step too far for for our Comoros boys. Having to play off the island was was not a great situation. They did bounce back with a a pretty grimy 1-0 win over Chad. They're still hanging around.
00:13:42
Speaker
But Ghana were very impressive here, and they followed up that win against Chad with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Madagascar, who had actually been the team that was challenging them most. Mali then failed to break down the Central African Republic in a 0-0 draw.
00:13:55
Speaker
The upshot of all of that is that Ghana, who straight up missed the AFCON, will not be at the AFCON at the end of this year after a terrible AFCON qualification performance. bounced back and are in a good shape here.
00:14:05
Speaker
Three points clear with a plus eight goal differential on Comoros. Five points clear, Madagascar, six of Mali. There's a lot of high-end talent in this Ghana squad. I can't make any sense of what happened in the AFKRM qualification process, but they're in a good spot here as far as making the World Cup is concerned.
00:14:20
Speaker
Yeah, their biggest threat here was Mali, who stumbled early. And then the teams that kind of took advantage of that were Comoros and Madagascar, who at the end of the day, just were good enough to have a hot window, but not good enough to sustain it.
00:14:35
Speaker
yeah So things that things broke well for Ghana. And I think to that point, Mali, who you'd expect to to kind of push them, you know, that 0-0 against CAR, Central African Republic, really disappointing. That's that's one, yeah if you're going to try to push a team like Ghana, you've got to find three somehow.
00:14:52
Speaker
It's really hard ah to get that ah to get that breakdown of a staunch team when you don't get a bounce in the in the first 20-30 minutes. and That's a theme, I think, of ah these CAF qualifying matches.
00:15:07
Speaker
Molly, you're good. right They control the game. they're They're faster at every position. They win the ball. and They can pin you there. But It takes just that little extra that the top teams have and they don't. And I think, again, the Molly game model or whole thing, again, this is a team that's really come ah far in the past, like two cycles or so.
00:15:28
Speaker
there's still levels to, to it. And again, this is the team that also got rocked by Comoros who are much better than we gave them credit for. Right. Comoros are not bad, but they're not good.
00:15:39
Speaker
they're They're definitively not good. We watched Comoros get rocked by Molly this time through.
00:15:45
Speaker
It's got our lucky. We'll, we'll check on them more. I think there's potential for them to be dangerous, but I hear, I hear, I think it was just kind of attrition elsewhere in the group. Yeah, and look, taking advantage of it, that's the name of the game in AFCON. Consistency is the name of game. If you can consistently grind out results, it doesn't matter how you do it.
00:16:04
Speaker
This qualification cycle is so equal, really top to bottom. Like there are three or four teams that are truly, truly bad in AFCON that just about anybody will be. Other than that, anybody can take points off anybody. And so this comes down to limiting your mistakes more than the teams that you were fighting against. And that's what Gana were able to do in this window.
00:16:23
Speaker
Venomit, we go to our sixth group that we're to about here. And this is one that I'm classifying as a non-seeded team with a three plus point lead.
South Africa's Strong Position in Group C
00:16:30
Speaker
And that takes us to Group C for Chaos, where we said, and I just said it now, AFCON qualifying comes down to taking advantage of opportunities and being consistent.
00:16:39
Speaker
This was a window in Group C for Chaos that was full of missed opportunities for every single team in this group that is not South Africa. Let's go one by one. We'll start with Benin, who blew a 2-0 lead to Zimbabwe. They were two goals up on a neutral field in South Africa against Zimbabwe and somehow gave up two goals to lose two points in that match.
00:17:00
Speaker
And admit, I have no idea how this Benin-Zimbabwe match finished 2-2 because for the last 30 minutes, there was just no midfield. These teams just went back and forth firing chances at each other. It was fun.
00:17:12
Speaker
Yeah, it was super chaotic. There should have been a third, or i sorry, ah one team scoring a third goal. One team should have scored a fourth goal. um that that This was one of the games in the window. um Benin, I don't understand. Are they good? Are they bad? Are they just really, they're good at just playing these games?
00:17:31
Speaker
Yeah, missed chance for sure. I think you would have backed them to have gotten that their goal. And Zimbabwe shouldn't have come back in the first place. yep um But that speaks to it. If you can't hold a twozero lead against Zababwe, you yourself are not very good.
00:17:46
Speaker
Yeah, there's no better way to say it. We talked about Nigeria a bit in the open, but just to to come back to it, they finally got their good showing in that first game. Victor Oshaman at the double, a 2-0 win over Rwanda in Kigali.
00:17:58
Speaker
It felt like they had finally kick-started their campaign. It was tough. It was grimy. It was sweaty, but they did get that goal. Oshaman reinventing the African favorite of take off the shirt after the goal, went for the take off the mask after the goal, Amit, and it felt like Nigeria had everything going What went wrong? How did Zimbabwe get back into this?
00:18:20
Speaker
Nigeria just, they they they they took their foot off the gas. yeah um And again, they the way they play is, I think, a slightly more against the ball style, slightly more countering, where they have some great wingers. They truly have really good wingers who are really good at dribbling and crossing.
00:18:38
Speaker
But they kind of, when they had the lead, were like, okay, we're we're just going to sit and hope for our guys to get in space and use long balls. But it was too easy to let zimbba um Zimbabwe kind of, like, just tilt the field completely and lock them in there.
00:18:54
Speaker
And Nigeria's defense is middling. um I don't – you know, you look at the personnel, like, it's fine. It shouldn't be this bad. um And then at the end of the day, like – it's a lapse in concentration, like at the end of it. Which we have seen so many times from Nigeria. And one of the points that I had made is it looked like they were actually locked in. Like it looked like we were getting the effort we wanted.
00:19:16
Speaker
Yeah. and And part of it for sure, I think is they had made some subs to get more attacking personnel to get that goal. Right. Because this went late before they get it. And then I think the personnel left on the field to see out the one goal lead is not as many defensive bodies, right?
00:19:31
Speaker
Yeah. One of the strikers has to come back and help. They don't want to run. that lets Zimbabwe tilt the field. Even all of that, it's, it's fluky. It is fluky, but like to the point, like as locked in as they were, get up one early, get up two. So you can bring on your defensive personnel to see it, bring on extra center backs.
00:19:48
Speaker
um I think that speaks to the theme of like, I was saying like, kind of just, they they let Zimbabwe take it to them at the end. Still should not have really gotten an equalizer, but I understand it.
00:20:01
Speaker
It's just, It's not in a vacuum. is We've seen Nigeria kind of do confounding defensive mistakes. Weird things happen in CAF, right? And so something weird can happen at any point. Any game can get turned on its head. But the problem for Nigeria is they just let it happen way too much, and it's put them significantly behind the eight ball. Another team with a missed opportunity here was Rwanda.
00:20:25
Speaker
We talked about that loss in Nigeria. They followed that up by giving away a 1-0 lead against Lesotho, who have been really pesky in this group. Lesotho should not be particularly good, but have dragged out some pretty good results here in this group.
00:20:36
Speaker
That 1-1 draw it in Kigali left Paul Kagame not happy. There was like a cut to his suite at the the Visit Rwanda Stadium, and he was not pleased. And that, amid all of that chaos, all of that missed opportunity, leaves Bafana Bafana in a really good spot. 2-0 win over Lesotho. 2-0 win over Benin.
00:20:54
Speaker
That's the good stuff. They're five clear with four to play. I mean, it's, it's crazy to think about if you back, you'd back almost anyone in calf five clear four to play.
00:21:07
Speaker
It's just really hard to make that ground up. um I, I, just in a vacuum. And even based on what we've seen, South Africa, Nigeria, who's the better team? It's not particularly close. Yep. I think you just like you chalk it up to being opportunistic, some of the intangibles.
00:21:26
Speaker
And I think you could make a case like the squad is balanced a little bit better. Like, Nigeria's top-heavy. You know, their best players are some of their star attackers. they They still have, you know, big names in the and high pedigrees.
00:21:41
Speaker
You know, in South Africa, none none of that pedigree. Almost all these guys are playing in the South African League. um I think the the league is definitely better than we've given them credit for. The players are fine. And they've just gotten some...
00:21:52
Speaker
um don't to say lucky goals, but you know opportunistic goals. And then they've written the game states out. This is kind of the formula that you you hope for when you're South Africa.
00:22:04
Speaker
um This is one of the stories of of the whole region, I think, because South Africa is not a team in the modern landscape of the increased talent in Africa that should be, frankly, making a World Cup.
00:22:18
Speaker
But they're... you know They're not quite Sudan. They're better than Sudan. But this is what can happen in a wonky type of qualifying style that CAF comes up with. This is definitely one of the biggest stories. They still have to finish it.
00:22:31
Speaker
It's not going be easy, but I think you take them to at this point. Yeah, and and I think so they the four games that they have left are Rwanda and Nigeria, but at home, and then away against Lesotho and Zimbabwe.
00:22:42
Speaker
No pushovers because there's not any pushovers in this group. That's a tough final window. Yes, but the thing about South Africa is they have been largely consistent here, right?
00:22:53
Speaker
The only time they lost was a 2-0 win away against Rwanda, which is a perfectly acceptable loss. They drew away against Nigeria. They went away and beat Benin, and they have been perfect at home. Three wins at home.
00:23:05
Speaker
that's the type of consistency that gets you results. Yeah. They can't control that Nigeria blew those two points. Because I think if you look at this table and you go 13 nine, to nine And Nigeria has a game, you know, can cut... Against South Africa.
00:23:21
Speaker
Yeah, against South Africa, like you're saying, and they cut that to one. Then there's a lot of pressure for you in those final two home away matches, tough window, to get three somewhere. right Now South Africa, and they should not settle, but they can accept...
00:23:37
Speaker
a bunch of draws. yeah can They can kind of just really be solid and kind of carry this thing over the line, even if they stumble a little bit. Right. you don't You don't have to win by more than one point, right? You don't have to beat seven points in front to make the World Cup. You just have to finish one point in front of the team chasing you. i think I think that's a really good point there.
00:23:54
Speaker
Yeah. So they... big Big benefit here that Nigeria slipped up in what really was their window to kind of catch them. yeah It's not done. I do think that last window, if Nigeria can especially beat them, obviously we don't need to say that's a massive, massive game.
00:24:08
Speaker
And we'll put the pressure on but they're in really good shape to have a very doable job for something. I think we all would be pretty surprised by. Yeah. And, uh,
00:24:20
Speaker
Nigeria have to win. I think Nigeria have to get 12 points here to have, to have any chance of of making the world cup. I can't see it happening with with anything less than 12. Right. yeah yeah Pretty much. I mean, maybe, maybe 10, maybe nine at nine, nine's tight ask Nigeria, South Africa basically has to get three draws and yeah know at a loss.
00:24:41
Speaker
And then if you, you put nine in the goal difference is, is dicey, isn't it? And I drew a run one up. It could have, yeah. Yeah, probably, probably, probably 10 or 12 for Nigeria. I don't think nine is likely cutting it.
00:24:54
Speaker
And it's worth noting here. I mentioned this a bit earlier. The second place table, which is is huge in Africa because there's no second place fallback for everybody. It's not like, okay, second place is going to a playoff. You can keep going.
00:25:05
Speaker
Only the top four second place teams are advancing to the African playoff where then they will try to make the intercontinental playoff. It's not the easy road, that's for sure. And it's not even going to be a road for the team in in this group C because the points just simply aren't there. You look at the second place table. Gabon lead it with 15. Cameroon, Senegal, Namibia, Comoros are 2 through 5, all on 12 points.
00:25:26
Speaker
Rwanda are the second place team in this group, and they're on 8 points. That gap is just not going to close over the stretch. So the only way that a team from this group is going to the World Cup is by winning this group. Yeah, that's one where you could say 9 could maybe...
00:25:39
Speaker
help Nigeria get into that second place table. Even then it's 16 might not be enough, right? Given the way the points are going. Yeah, it's just, there's a lot of teams that have to pass. And then admit the last three groups here in Africa, arts groups that I think we can say are generally up for grabs. Let's talk about group B. This was the the group where where we saw that Sudan moment that we mentioned earlier.
00:25:58
Speaker
DR Congo took six from six here to lead this group. Uh, They're not going to put the 1-0 home win against South Sudan or the 2-0 away win against Mauritania in any sort of museum for for good football. But who cares? It's six points. And in CAF qualifying, that's what matters.
00:26:11
Speaker
We talked about Sudan. They had that great nil-nil home draw home in parenthes in quotation marks in Libya against Senegal. But then they were pegged back in miraculous fashion by South Sudan. and Sudan and Mitt are surprisingly organized.
00:26:24
Speaker
They have a predictable lack of skill, but they are surprisingly organized. And they made it really, really hard for Senegal for the majority of the night. They got really good goalkeeper from Mohamed Mustafa. And I think that's what ended up costing them against South Sudan is when he went off injured.
00:26:38
Speaker
Yeah, I'm with you 100%. I think we've both been impressed by Sudan's defensive solidity. Also, just their ability to track back, recover. They're so solid at tackling. The amount of tackles that they made in that Senegal match that were just like last-ditch dangerous tackles that were just executed perfectly.
00:26:54
Speaker
Yeah, they they really made life hard on Senegal trying to score. um Again, there's there's not as much quality going forward, and that's what you see when they can't score against South Sudan. and And also, you know, it's one thing to have a bunch of guys bought in at the top level to have ah some cohesion and and squad.
00:27:11
Speaker
Okay, guy number 18, 19 on the roster, your backup goalkeeper isn't at that level. And... one thing we've seen not just here in AFCON for watching these teams in this region, goalkeeping errors is one of the top tickets to goals, uh, games in Africa.
00:27:29
Speaker
It just is because that's a position where it's very specialized. And sometimes you you have a person that doesn't quite have the, it's all, it's about literally like grabbing crosses. Is it, is it actually,
00:27:41
Speaker
Difficult skill for goalkeepers. And a backup just for Sudan really botched this and still got a bike score. That was, as you mentioned in the open, was was ridiculous.
00:27:53
Speaker
Yeah, I'm bummed for Sudan. They did 179 minutes of hard work here to put themselves in position. And they're they're not done. they're They're actually right there. But this was this is one they'll be regretting, i think, for for sure.
00:28:07
Speaker
Those are two points that you really want to have in the bank. Senegal, meanwhile, bounced back with a two nil win over Togo. And that makes this, it's a three horse race because I think Sudan have earned that, right? They've earned the fact that they have to be considered in this race, but it's DR Congo on 13. It's Sudan and Senegal on 12. Senegal have the the gold differential advantage.
00:28:28
Speaker
Like I said, Sudan have done enough. they've They've earned our respect. They have to be considered in this conversation. But this is probably a mitt going to come down to DR Congo in Senegal. They play in Kinshasa in September.
00:28:39
Speaker
That is a big, big match because DR Congo haven't really been the story in this group because we've all been focused on on Sudan. And obviously the focus is on Senegal. DR Congo are a very solid team looking to make some World Cup history.
00:28:52
Speaker
Yeah, they're solid team, have good attackers. They could definitely do it. I think we've um been thinking about other things for good reason. That's a big one. I think just to to touch on Senegal, I think for them, you know, the the way they played Sudan, they they tried. They really tried to get in gear. they They dominated the possession.
00:29:10
Speaker
They have good midfielders. Sadio Mane is still kind of their their main outlet on the left, and you can just see he's he's He's a formerly world-class player that isn't anymore. He's Saudified, right? He's been Saudified.
00:29:24
Speaker
Yeah. In Saudi Arabia. he's just not quite as explosive and he just doesn't have the quite sharpness in the final third. Okay. And then I think Senegal is missing a proper number nine to turn this possession dominance into just one or two goals that would change the the course of this.
00:29:43
Speaker
Now we know Nico Jackson, the Chelsea guy is a, is Senegalese. So, and he's been in the squad before he's a big name. He wasn't really featured here. And I think they were struggling to get production um from the nine spot.
00:29:56
Speaker
But the squad here is still better than Congo. It's going to be a fun one. It's going to be a fun one. I think Senegal is honestly falling off quite a bit from their last trip the World Cup. You'd still kind of back them just on talent, but it's not to be automatic. So um I'm excited ah to see if they can do it.
00:30:14
Speaker
Yeah, the the goals, like you said, ah kind of been the issue. that They've yet to lose in six matches, but they've only won three times. They've had three draws. They've only conceded once, but they just haven't quite had the goals that they've needed. They've they've been held to some nil-nil draws. Togo and Sudan both held them to nil-nil draws.
00:30:30
Speaker
ah Yeah, let let's see what happens. i think it's this one is going to be legitimately tight, and I think it's it's hard to pick between the two in Senegal and DR Congo. In Group D, we've got Cameroon and Cape Verde.
00:30:43
Speaker
Cameroon could have been in that first group that we talked about, but just for whatever reason decided to go play a nil-nil draw with Eswatini on Wednesday, which was just not what Cameroon needed. And they did not look to be engaged or interested in that match, which is just not a great thing to say. There've been lots of controversy with with with the Belgian manager, Mark Brute. And so because of that,
00:31:05
Speaker
It's just not a great situation. And now it's putting their qualification hopes at risk. ah Because of that, Cape Verde had a good window. They left it late against Mauritius, but one came away out, came out on top in Luanda against Angola, a double from Dylon Liebermento.
00:31:21
Speaker
Angola and Libya both failed to take advantage of any opportunities. The 1-1 draw between the two didn't help. This is a two-horse race here. It's Cape Verde against Cameroon and Cape Verde in September. I think Cameroon are definitely favored, but they're going to have to either beat Cape Verde or better them against lesser competition if they get a draw.
00:31:37
Speaker
And the vibes aren't super great in Cameroon right now. Yeah, we've seen some countries struggle with the vibes in qualifying. Cameroon being one of the chief ones that have done this before.
00:31:50
Speaker
um Yeah, the performance in Eswatini was uninspired, completely apathetic. It was buggy. It was hot. It was humid. It was nasty. It just was going to take a lot of work to break them down because no matter who you are, even if you're Eswatini at home, you want to frustrate the team you're playing, which is really fun. um Yeah, and I think they kind of just punted it.
00:32:12
Speaker
They said, you know what? We're not going to do it today. We're going to do it later. but it That's all I got for you. Like, yeah what? like Cape Verde are good, and I agree with you, they're better than Cape Verde, but okay, now you've set up a match with some stakes where the other team is going to be motivated to play them.
00:32:32
Speaker
Or you punt that one, and you get the job done later. You kick the can down the line and say, whatever, we'll be locked in when we want to. Okay, they've You're going to run out of time eventually. And and to their credit, they bounced back and they were particularly impressive in the second game that that they played this window. They smoked Libya and in the game that they played.
00:32:50
Speaker
That was a big game. There were some stakes there. Had Cameron struggled, they would have been in trouble. Again, yeah, I'm with you. I think you're still back. them And there's a point to be made here regarding Eswatini. African teams, particularly those that are bad,
00:33:03
Speaker
are remarkably prideful about playing for results, remarkably prideful. And you've seen it up and down these matches. These are teams that their only hope of making the world cup is to go on a big winning streak and and win a bunch of games. And they're just content to play these grimy nil-nil draws because taking a point off Cameroon is a historic result.
00:33:21
Speaker
And credit to Eswatini for doing that. Credit to Somalia for doing that. There are teams like that, that look, they understand the role here. They're not going to make the world cup, but if they can take a big point, they can take ah ah a scalp off of somebody, they're going to sure as heck try and do it.
00:33:35
Speaker
That's what Eswatini did here. And like you said, they've made life hard for Cameroon and Cameroon just worried about it. Yeah, that's what makes calf qualifying so good. Yep. Last calf group to talk about here a minute is Group F, Ivory Coast against Gabon.
00:33:49
Speaker
Two very similar 1-0 wins for Ivory Coast. You made this point earlier, and I wanted to bring it up again. Early goals really changed these calf matches, and that's what Ivory Coast got. They scored within the first 20 minutes of both of their matches here, and they won both of them 1-0.
00:34:01
Speaker
They are very good defensively. They have not conceded at all this qualification cycle. They haven't been very prolific scoring. If you take out the the outlier result against Seychelles, who are unfortunately the worst team in Africa and are the African team that you can count on beating.
00:34:17
Speaker
Um, Teixeira's two goals scored, 30 goals conceded in six matches for a minus 28 goal differential. Not great. Gabon, though, Amit won twice themselves and they sit one point back.
00:34:28
Speaker
These two teams are going to play in September and it's going to come down to them to that match and then what they do in the the other matches that are left to decide who's going to the World Cup. But this is a group where I think there actually is a bit of a fallback plan in second place because of the points that these teams have picked up so far.
00:34:44
Speaker
Yeah, Gabon has have done really well for themselves. because I think if Ivory Coast had 16 points in any other group, you'd feel really good about them being well on their way to the spot. And, you know, I still think they're they're better than Gabon. And I've been impressed by how professional Ivory Coast have been. And I think you've just seen ah real seriousness to them that we saw at AFCON in 2024 that we've seen throughout this qualifying.
00:35:08
Speaker
They get their goal early. They're very physical. They have a really good defensive track record. um So even while Gabon is a point behind them, I just think this is a ah pretty impressive Ivory Coast group. So they should be fine. But I think you have to give the credit to Gabon that despite how well their Ivory has been playing, only a point back.
00:35:28
Speaker
So um we'll see if they can trouble them. I think this will end up being Gabon is going to have a play themselves into a really good chance of the playoff and Ivory Coast will be a solid team at the World Cup. But Things could change. I've just, were a lot again, a lot of big teams, middling teams have struggled in CAF.
00:35:48
Speaker
Ivory Kros has not been one of them. they've They've really answered this cycle, um which has been important for them, given that they missed the last World Cup. So I think they're especially motivated, and they feel that, whereas some of these teams are like, you are you guys paying attention? You could you could miss this if you if you mess around too much.
00:36:04
Speaker
Yeah, and and I think Ivory Kros will have the advantage of Gabon are going to have to beat them. And Ivory Coast have been impossible to beat so far. And so because of that, they have done enough where they still have that point advantage on Gabon.
00:36:16
Speaker
Like you said, credit to Gabon for making this a race. and that's going to be a very interesting match. And and and it's one I'm certainly looking forward to in September. All right, we have gone on for a very long time, but after I hope you made some popcorn for this podcast. That's my point.
00:36:27
Speaker
I hope you understood, hey, it's World Cup after dark. There were 104 matches. These guys are going to talk forever. Just take a cup of coffee, take your popcorn, and enjoy the show. We're going to go on for a while. Hopefully, all of it's good. Let's go to Asia Amit, where let's start once again with our friends in Group C for Chaos, where unfortunately, there wasn't a ton of chaos this time around.
00:36:45
Speaker
to Japan Amit, our qualified for the World Cup. They sealed their spot with a 2-0 win over Bahrain on Thursday. Man, I like this team. They can really, really play. They are among the best at playing.
00:36:56
Speaker
They're among the best comprehensive team sides. They may not have the top-end talent, but man, they're good. Man, they're fun to watch, and they are well-deserving of this runaway qualification. Yeah, I think one of the most, exactly, one of the most deserving teams in the world right now to get an early ah lock spot in the World Cup.
00:37:15
Speaker
They're going be one of the teams we're going to have a lot of fun yeah previewing in the field. This has been cakewalk quite literally for them um through Asia. Which is impressive because there are good teams in this group. Saudi Arabia and Australia are teams that made the most recent World Cup.
00:37:30
Speaker
This on paper was a the toughest of the three groups, and they just made mincemeat of it. and They did. Yeah. Yeah. And I think in comparison to the closest team on talent to them, South Korea, who we're going to talk about in their group, i I think there's just a little bit more squad depth here for Japan and a little bit more motivation because the difference between them and Korean talent isn't much, but they're just...
00:37:57
Speaker
ah much more effective and motivated to play their style where Korea really struggles to get into that gear. And I think Korea is also...
00:38:10
Speaker
top heavier where Japan has a pretty complete 11. And then beyond that, a few more guys from 11 to 20 that just allow them to attack these windows. It's really hard for the top Asian teams whose guys are in Europe to come, come from Europe to Asia, deal with the jet lag and play two intense high intensity matches and then go back because, ah you know, what we see a lot of these domestic based teams, this is their, these, these are the matches they get up for very hard ah For the European-based players, where there's not as many in Asia, to come and do it, Japan makes it look easy. Korea struggles. that And yeah that's just a reflection of why Japan is so unique in the way they did this.
00:38:51
Speaker
I think that's ah that's a really good comparison. It's a really good way to think about it. Moving on in this group, six points for Australia. That has them in the driver's seat for second place. They smashed Indonesia five one in Sydney on Thursday. We'll come back to Indonesia in a moment.
00:39:04
Speaker
And then they jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first half hour on China in Hangzhou. And then admit they did what has... just It's a fun international thing to do where you just give the ball the other team and you just say, but do what you want.
00:39:16
Speaker
We're two goals up and credit to you if you can find those two goals and there was no chance China was finding those two goals. ah hundred percent 100%. First goal was you know deflection in the box and a kind of a crazy finish from Australia.
00:39:29
Speaker
But listen, um they had been kind of floundering for a few matches here. they' They've been better. They're due for a bounce. China's not very good. I think they just kind of... ah good waiting game for Australia. Things were going to get, go their way at some point. Not, not necessarily, but like you play with solidity, you put a few numbers in the box. You hope a bounce goes their way. When you do, you shut up shop.
00:39:53
Speaker
ah This was very Australian of them to beat China, which was a big game and the Indonesia game. I think they, you know, we're up for two scored a bunch. Great stuff.
00:40:04
Speaker
Yeah. And like you said, the first goal from Irvine, good play, good advantage, weird bounce. And then the second goal, just a massive goalkeeping error from China. Just like not the time, just not the time to have one just go straight through your hands. Just not, no, not great.
00:40:20
Speaker
So because of that, Australia, like i said, in the driver's seat, Saudi Arabia though, are still in it. They had a four point window, which was what they needed to do. It's a level of this, are we? had the the winner in that 1-0 win over what was, again, a toothless China on Thursday in Saudi Arabia, and then admit they went to Japan and they ground out a nil-nil result against a Japan team that, for one of the few times this qualification cycle, missed that final gear. And I think completely understandably, they didn't quite have fifth gear, and Saudi Arabia took advantage of it, got their point, and they are hanging around in this situation. We'll get into the math in a second, but this was the window they needed to have to stay in it going into June.
00:40:56
Speaker
Yeah, they're still in it. I think, again, Saudi Arabia and Australia, Saudi Arabia and Australia, two close teams, two stylistically different teams. Saudi Arabia is just a bit worse.
00:41:07
Speaker
ye They cannot get... ah they can use the ball really well into dangerous areas. They don't quite have the bodies or the finishing touch that you need, whether it's a big body in the box on a set piece or a real striker to finish their best players, their wingers, and then they're less big in the back too, which ended up not being an issue for them against China and Japan.
00:41:29
Speaker
um And especially a very toothless China team, as you said. um but Saudi Arabia just have less answers to to try to yeah come up with plan B or C where Australia do.
00:41:41
Speaker
And I think fairly, they're three points back. They're they're still here. They're still here. And I think they'll have a chance in that next round, um which is going to be really interesting when we get there. But I could feel, you know, again, this was match days seven and eight here in Asia.
00:41:57
Speaker
We're seeing it. Australia just a bit better than Saudi Arabia, which is kind of a reversal, I think, from the last two four years. You mentioned it. Saudi Arabia could really do with like a six foot five guy that they could just hammer the ball into and just play hold it up off of because so many times international football comes down to that plan B and they just don't have it. And so if they can't break you down with those intricate passing moves or on the counter or whatever, they just don't have the ability to just kind of muck it in there and force it into the back of the net. And and that's kind of cost them.
00:42:26
Speaker
Indonesia omit have charged ahead in the fight for fourth. ah Patrick Kuivert is now the Indonesia manager, which was news to me. It's very harsh, I think, on the South Korean Shin Taeyong, who had been the Indonesia manager for five years and had done fantastic, fantastic work with them.
00:42:43
Speaker
But it appears that Indonesia had had started to get in naturalized players. They brought in a lot of Dutch-born players with eligibility. And I think they wanted a European manager to kind of be able to communicate. That's really harsh on Shinta Young. I don't think Patrick Kloyvert's a very good manager. He wasn't particularly good when he had the Curacao job way back when.
00:43:00
Speaker
ah But Jakarta was rocking and Patrick Kloyvert put on a suit and was sweating in it. And that was enough because I love the the Marcelo Ferdinand Ole Romany link up and that got them a one-nil win over Bahrain.
00:43:12
Speaker
This was as good of an atmosphere. Man, Jakarta was just insane. It was a fantastic atmosphere and Indonesia just lived off it. Again, i don't know if they're gonna make the World Cup, but pound for pound, transformational from last window to this window. yeah You'd be hard pressed to find a better story or or even results than Indonesia.
00:43:34
Speaker
I mean, to get that atmosphere in Jakarta to get the win. And I don't think it's a reflection of the last manager. I think it's what you said. They they brought in a guy that can. you know connect with his Dutch guys. um Just a wholesale effort to rehaul the Federation, use the avenues available to you. that's you know We don't analyze player management, which is an underrated aspect of international soccer.
00:43:57
Speaker
We sit here and talk about the roster as it is. um But this is awesome for Indonesia. And now you're getting to enjoy ah really crazy atmosphere like this, a good win, and hopefully more to come. i think We're going to see if they... Sneaky, underrated story.
00:44:12
Speaker
If they can hold on to this fourth spot and get into the next round. um listen Listen, you watch them and there's some attacking talent. these guys yeah these guys have some These guys can play. They can give you a moment of brilliance. You leave them alone, they can punish you.
00:44:27
Speaker
ah The defense, they're structurally sound. Again, not the best athletes. There aren't that many teams that have great athletes in defense in Asia. so they They kind of look like in that middle range of Australia, of Asian teams, which is not what we expected when we met these guys two rounds ago.
00:44:45
Speaker
First round, right? Indonesia, we're playing ah Brunei and in the first round in Asia. The way back, like the very first podcast, when we were digging around for streams, Indonesia beat Brunei 12-0 on aggregate, and they're still here, and they're still fighting.
00:44:58
Speaker
Ole Romney is a championship striker, right? He plays for Oxford United. He's Dutch-born. He has quality and class that some of these bottom tier Asian teams simply don't have. And I think he he made that count with the two goals that he scored here.
00:45:09
Speaker
Marcelino Ferdinand, I love watching him play. He had great moments and he has just moments that are bewilderingly bad and he's so much fun and he's a perfect fit for for this Indonesian team and for the atmosphere. I said we would talk about the math in it. Let's talk about the math in this group.
00:45:22
Speaker
Second place is almost assuredly going to come down to Saudi Arabia and Australia. The question is, will it come down to their head-to-head matchup on the last match day? It could. But Saudi Arabia are going to need Australia to drop points or they're going to need to put a bunch of goals past Bahrain because Saudi Arabia's goal differential is currently in the tank.
00:45:42
Speaker
Australia goal differential in this group sitting in second place on plus seven, Saudi Arabia on minus two. They are three points back. So if both teams win, unless Saudi Arabia win by significantly more than Australia win by.
00:45:53
Speaker
And again, Australia have to play Japan and Perth, but it's maybe not as difficult of playing Japan as it had been at other points in this cycle. Saudi Arabia are going to need some help if they want to finish second, I think is, is, is the upshot of all of this.
00:46:06
Speaker
And this last windows in September. Yeah. In June, in June, coming up in June, June. Yeah. A few things is one, just the answer. um I would bet Japan would call in a different squad to kind of give their, some of their stars a break after a long campaign and see if they can mix in some fresh life, which could make them play, but like not play. Yeah. the The players that would be in that squad would still be a tough challenge. But to the second point, I don't think Saudi Arabia is beating Bahrain by a large amount. and are organized They've been tough to bring hard enough to win that game by
00:46:41
Speaker
one goal, let alone two. I don't think you're overturning it. So the answer becomes when does Australia drop points to make that a true decision day? you know, spot on the line.
00:46:53
Speaker
I think, again, this is why I said, I think Australia notably better. yeah um I don't think it'll come down to that, but Australia could draw points and then we'd be looking at that game in a different way. And they would still have the draw advantage for that game, right? Australia, the worst case scenario for them is is they're going to have to play for a draw against Saudi Arabia on the last match day. I think they're in good shape.
00:47:13
Speaker
Australia, Japan, then Australia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Australia. Yep. Yeah, I think that draw helps them too. um Listen, if you're Saudi arab Arabia, you're trying to be opportunistic.
00:47:26
Speaker
you're You're just trying to get to that last game with any chance and see what you can do. You're probably probably not going to do it, um but that's okay. The great thing about Asian qualification is there's more to come. There's always more to come. That's how this format works.
00:47:43
Speaker
yeah And that's what Saudi Arabia are looking to do. And that's also what Indonesia are looking to do. Can they go first round to fourth round? There are three points up on China and Bahrain behind them. I think if they can beat China and Jakarta, they'll probably make the fourth round. Their last game is away against Japan.
00:47:57
Speaker
That's going to be difficult. I wouldn't want to leave it up to that. But beating China and Jakarta feels doable in June. And if they can do that, man, this seems to be impressive. And if it's somehow, some way, I hate to say it,
00:48:09
Speaker
China are still not dead in this because they play Indonesia away and Bahrain at home. Six points there and China might actually sneak through into the fourth round. But we all want it to be Indonesia, right? Yeah, of course we want it just for our sensibilities.
00:48:24
Speaker
You have to think even an Indonesia point against China would probably be enough because Bahrain isn't going to get to four. China's probably not ah getting the next...
00:48:38
Speaker
Like China Bahrain on the last day? like are you they give ride That's the sicko hours. yeah Yes, it is. No, listen, I think it's an atmosphere you're playing for three in Jakarta like we just saw. And I think everyone is going to understand that.
00:48:54
Speaker
But I think yeah we Indonesia have gotten a pretty comfortable margin of error in case they don't. We'll see.
00:49:05
Speaker
um It'll be fun. Yeah, I'm certainly looking forward to that. Let's shift to Group A. Iran, amit our group our World Cup bound. Sardar Hasbun scored and the 45 plus 27th minute in their first match, which is just absolutely objectively hilarious. There was a light problem in the Iran match.
00:49:22
Speaker
The ref just didn't stop the clock, took the teams off the pitch, et cetera, et cetera. But that was a good win for Iran in their first match in this window. That was 2-0 at home against the UAE. And then they came back and played a really fun back and forth 2-2 draw against Uzbekistan.
00:49:37
Speaker
That is a legitimately great game. It was enough to send round of the World Cup. Manny Taremi is a dude. When this team plays, they are good. Let's see what they do at the World Cup with it. Yeah, they've been really impressive this window. And I think the thing for Iran that helps them so much is, OK, we know that their their best way to play is against the ball and let their guys, you know, work on the counter. But they've had a lot of experience chasing goals here in Asia. They've had a lot of experience going toe to toe with, ah you know, Uzbekistan, UAE and Qatar, who are or fine opponents, especially, you know, Qatar has pedigree and Uzbekistan pushed them in this game.
00:50:13
Speaker
um And time and time again, we've seen from Iran that their attackers, star attackers, are not just you know pigeonholed into one way of playing. They're very creative, very smart players, very talented players.
00:50:28
Speaker
They're fun team. They're really fun team. And I think you know everyone saw that when they at the last World Cup. This isn't like a surprise. um But they're they haven't slipped. you know ah some of Some of these teams...
00:50:39
Speaker
You know, someone, some go up from 22 to 26, some go down and we're going to be locked, super locked into that when it's time. Iran or Iran or trending just, just slightly up. They're going to be a, they're going to be um a really fun team cusping on, can they win an elimination match or two? Can they get out of the group?
00:50:57
Speaker
Not a team that you want to see in your draw is is yeah very funny, ah pithy way to put it, but ah they're going to be, they're they're good. They're good. well-deserving of their World Cup spot. Four matches now between Iran and Uzbekistan in this World Cup qualification. All four finish and draws. That's hilarious.
00:51:13
Speaker
Uzbekistan keep chugging along. It was 1-0 at home against Kyrgyzstan in Tashkent on Thursday. It wasn't great, but it was three points, and and at this point, that's what matters.
00:51:24
Speaker
Ali Janov with the goal, Uzbekistan had opportunities that that that they let go begging in this match, but they got it done in the end. That draw against Iran is good. The three points would have been better. They are in a good spot, but they're not quite safe yet because UAE Amit won it very, very late against North Korea, a diving header from Sultan Adil, adding the swimming cap to the things you can remove after scoring a goal. Wasn't a shirt, wasn't a mask, it was a swimming cap.
00:51:49
Speaker
2-1 win for the UAE, and they are still within shouting distance of Uzbekistan with a head-to-head match to come in June. And as we run the math here, Amit, actually, let's talk about Qatar for, no, let's run the math and then we'll do the Qatar LOL section.
00:52:05
Speaker
ah Uzbekistan and UAE play in the first window in June. So they play in the first match on on June 5th. UAE currently sit four points back of Uzbekistan. If the UAE can beat Uzbekistan, they would get to within one point, and then the two teams would play. And then on the last day, the UAE will play Kyrgyzstan in Bishkek, while Uzbekistan will play Qatar.
00:52:27
Speaker
And if Uzbekistan failed to beat Qatar and UAE beat Kyrgyzstan, UAE would actually pip Uzbekistan to second place. Uzbekistan need a point in that match against the UAE. They're so close to mid, but they're still not there.
00:52:39
Speaker
Yeah, if you told them that you need a point against UAE in match day nine, you're going to be in good shape. And you still have you know, a chance against Qatar who are frankly not that good as we're going to get to. You'll take it. Yeah. you'd You'd wish for how well they've played, it would be done. But I think everyone in that camp is probably, you know, pretty pleased with how this window went and probably feels, you know, we just, you know, this was never going to be easy.
00:53:04
Speaker
um We just need to do it. We need to keep playing how we've been playing and,
00:53:11
Speaker
you know i I think if you if you take away the pressure, Uzbekistan needing just a point against UAE is quite a simple task, actually, the way they play. Now you it's just about kind of locking out the...
00:53:24
Speaker
the mental pressure of, oh my gosh, a point and we're in the world cup, a point we're in the world cup. Like you just gotta, to you just gotta to kind of block that out because Uzbekistan have been very solid defensively. They gave up goals to very, very good Iran attackers.
00:53:40
Speaker
ah They play a really, you know, mucky style. They're very good against the ball. they They play like Iran. They're tough and, UAE is not a team that should be able to break them down. I think you take that that matchup all day for Uzbekistan.
00:53:57
Speaker
But this is why we got to play match day 9 and 10, right? So yeah it's it's sweaty. It'll be fun. um Again, we're so close to like some really awesome scenes for Uzbekistan, but not quite.
00:54:08
Speaker
And that that coming back to Tashkent to play Qatar in a match that they have to have, that would just oh bad that'd be a lot of pressure. So you hope that they can just get it done and get the point against UAE.
00:54:19
Speaker
Qatar, meanwhile, they beat North Korea 5-1. That was a good start. They did the Qatar thing. Afif was was playing out. They had their good goals. It was all good. Then they went to Bishkek and admit they faced adversity. It was cold. It wasn't comfortable. And they just got run off the pitch by Kyrgyzstan. They lost 3-1.
00:54:35
Speaker
They just do not handle adversity well. And they do not defend well. They've now given up 21 goals in eight matches. Qatar should still be fine to make the fourth round. But there is a scenario where if Kyrgyzstan can beat North Korea and then Qatar don't beat Iran, then we could go into the last match day where Qatar are going to Tashkent to play Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are playing UAE and Bishkek with the opportunity where if Kyrgyzstan win and Qatar lose, that Kyrgyzstan could actually pass Qatar for a spot in the fourth round, which would be objectively hilarious. I don't think it's going to happen.
00:55:07
Speaker
And let's see what we get from Qatar in the fourth round. They have been one of the most disappointing teams at this point in World Cup qualification up till now. A few things. is One, that they're also... The way those matches could shake out is there's a chance on the last days that the teams they're playing are motivated yeah beat them.
00:55:27
Speaker
There's a chance that they could run into two teams that are unmotivated um both of the battles for fourth. um So that'd be interesting. like We'll talk about that before that June window and kind of get into it. And like it's hard to know which one because we're going to talk before match day nine, not before 10th.
00:55:44
Speaker
um That being said, yes, extremely disappointed in them. They have slid so much. It's truly the lack of defense. We've we've known about this team. Again, this team won the literal continental tournament in 2024, and here they are going to slide to fourth.
00:56:00
Speaker
um hopefully, yeah in Asia qualifying in a pretty math group, pipped by a so more solid team in Uzbekistan and even UAE, who's just worse than them.
00:56:11
Speaker
It's been a motivation thing. And and the defensive personnel is really, really bad because I think you look at their offensive personnel and it's still kind of what they've been doing this whole time, but they they cannot defend. They cannot defend in a region where it shouldn't be as hard as it is.
00:56:26
Speaker
And frankly, when you're going to start handicapping the next round, going to be real dicey for these guys. I'm sure they're betting you like, okay, you know what?
00:56:37
Speaker
we weren We weren't getting this anyway. They're they're not mode they're not performing well. The performance ah against Kyrgyzstan was really bad. Just really bad. And the red card sucked. And okay, it was 25-yard shot from distance that the goalie should have saved. little fluky. Otherwise, maybe you're looking at a 1-1 and doesn't matter as much.
00:56:58
Speaker
But it's just the repeated pattern of these no-shows for Qatar. ye Really disappointing. Again, team that could win... The Continental Tournament. This could be the best team in Asia. we We know they're not as good as Japan or South Korea.
00:57:11
Speaker
Why aren't they third or fourth? They're going to be up against it with a bad defense. They could miss this thing. Really could miss this thing. And they they know that they could miss it. But like I think one of the biggest slides pound for pound in this qualification region certainly is Qatar.
00:57:29
Speaker
Yeah, and what a commentary that would be on the entire Qatar football project. If Qatar go from hosting the World Cup to not baking an expanded World Cup. More on that in June. It's ah it's an interesting story to follow.
00:57:41
Speaker
Group B to close out the Asian discussion. amid South Korea failed to impress. Again, we talked about them a bit in the Japan section. Two blown leads for South Korea that led to draws at home against Oman and Jordan.
00:57:52
Speaker
They are still, I think, fine. I gamed the numbers out a little bit. And just the way that the matchups work out. South Korea's worst case scenario, if you want to look at it that way, is going into the last match day needing to beat Kuwait at home.
00:58:08
Speaker
And even if they don't do that, obviously they they'd have to fall back in the fourth round. So they are probably fine. They still haven't lost in this round, but they've played out four draws, including three draws at home, which is is less than ideal and just speaks to that lack of a fifth gear from the South Korea team.
00:58:23
Speaker
I agree. i think you, I went back and kind of reviewed these. They played fine. um Yeah. Their defense is what it is. I think you kind of have to expect maybe a goal a game, but they should be able to score two or three.
00:58:35
Speaker
And I think what you just saw is just ah that lack of the second goal, the lack of, they get the ball into good positions. They even have good strikers. but they don't quite have that extra gear there. We need this goal. Let's get this goal. They don't quite do it. They don't have that killer instinct.
00:58:50
Speaker
And again, it's hard. Their best players have a lot of miles on them. um And their style is very, ah it works better when their guys are running. They also just don't really have um strength advantages up top.
00:59:04
Speaker
They're really good dribblers and they're, They're fast. I don't want to say they're not physically below it because they are. Their defenders are, or their center backs are fine, but it's, they're they're just not great. They're not great. And there's the fine margin between, this is a good team that could do something. Like, remember a lot of, some of these players are in the core of players that did some awesome things in 2018 and 2022 or less awesome. But again, this was a team that had it did well in the Asia combinations, but nothing ever comes easy for them. And I think that's the the biggest takeaway for Korea.
00:59:39
Speaker
This is more of that for them. They just played fine. They weren't up for making it easy. They just, yeah they they kind of rolled that. They they rolled it out. And you kind of look at the attitude of them after the games. They were like,
00:59:50
Speaker
okay, well we'll be back. We'll be fine. like They've done enough. it's just it was Again, it's always in comparison to Japan, who is sure just a little bit better than them.
01:00:01
Speaker
And by all accounts, this will this will be a pretty successful ho-hum World Cup qualification campaign for them. And again, for all these things we talk about, you take that. But are we have we been impressed?
01:00:12
Speaker
No, we haven't been impressed. No, and in a group that was far and away the easiest of the draws, I think you would have expected them to make quicker work of this, I think is is one of yeah the biggest takeaways. that Look, man, it's Iraq and in Jordan. We're not talking about Australia. We're not talking about Qatar. We're not talking...
01:00:30
Speaker
You'd think that they they would have made better work of this, but again, the situation is that they're they're still generally fine here. Jordan, meanwhile, took advantage of some slip-ups from Iraq. Let's talk about Jordan quick. Four points from this window, a composed 3-1 win against Palestine to open it up, and that previous mentioned 1-1 draw with South Korea.
01:00:47
Speaker
What a rollercoaster of a March window for Iraq, huh, Amit? They rescued a point in Basra against Kuwait in a match that they were 2-0 down in the 93rd minute. They came back and drew it too two And then followed that up by playing pretty much the reverse opposite of that, in which they were 1-0 up in the 88th minute against Palestine and gave it up and didn't even rescue a point, lost the match.
01:01:10
Speaker
Big, big opportunities here for Iraq. It felt like the pressure kind of got to them. It's the best way to put it. I mean, on the surface could be six points with, you know, three or four goals.
01:01:24
Speaker
Instead, it's a one that you had to work really hard to get one and you really blew another three. ah And just in kind of the tactics free zone of the last five minutes where, you know, it's mixer ball and they just got bounced hard.
01:01:42
Speaker
um And yes, that's unlucky, but also like, Now you're probably not going to the World Cup. There's a real opportunity here that you could have been in the driver's seat in second place in the last two match days.
01:01:54
Speaker
And Iraq are good enough to be a World Cup team. But I think now they're going to be in the middle of ah maybe, maybe in the next round. And maybe they can do this too. You know, they they could. But just imagine if this window went differently. This was... yeah um In a sense, up there with some of the the heartbreaking stuff we saw in this window, ah yeah, I don't know. This was two crazy games. Like, emotionally, it's got to be draining, too. And what a moment for Palestine. The celebration for Palestine when they equalized was as though they had won the match. That was going a massive point for them.
01:02:29
Speaker
And then they went on and flat out won the game. The celebrations for the Palestine players was was really impressive. They're not out of this yet. We'll talk about them in a second. Let's look at the top of this group, the the three-way fight for the top two.
01:02:40
Speaker
South Korea lead the way on 16 points. Jordan have 13. Iraq have 12. ah Iraq are going to have to get something in Basra against South Korea. I think it really comes down to that because if they don't, Jordan are going to be able to beat Oman in Muscat in June, and that would seal the deal for second because they'd be four points clear with just one match to play.
01:02:57
Speaker
There's a Jordan-Iraq match on the last match day. Iraq, a lot like Saudi Arabia. They want to get to that match with a chance. However, they have to do it, and it's probably going to be with having to get points against South Korea. Yeah, I think you're hoping really hard that Jordan drop points in the first in their first match.
01:03:15
Speaker
Yep. Difficult match away against Oman. Oman are probably the the fourth best team in this group.
01:03:22
Speaker
Yeah, I don't... You don't seem convinced. You're not buying the Oman love. No, I guess they have to beat South Korea, and they certainly can. and But I think South Korea... They can be beaten, but South Korea... I kind of know how South Korea is going to play it.
01:03:35
Speaker
They're going to play well. They're going score. Maybe you get a goal and it's but I don't know if you're – don't know. It'll be interesting if Iraq's got to have it all on the line. So then yeah it'll be it'll be interesting in that sense.
01:03:47
Speaker
Yeah, Iraq's not done. We'll see. Fight for fourth. Oman lead that race. They're four points clear, but it could still come down to Palestine-Oman on the last matchday. Palestine would have to win away against Kuwait and have Oman fail to beat Jordan.
01:04:01
Speaker
And then that could come down to a head-to-head matchup on that last matchday for that last spot. It's been a great campaign for Palestine even if they come him short. Oman are are favored to take that fourth place spot. think they're going to be favored to be the worst team in the fourth round draw. And that's been our opinion on this since we started.
01:04:15
Speaker
Let's go quick to Oceania. Amit New Zealand, get it done. A 7-0 semifinal win over the Roy Krishna Les Fiji squad. Roy Krishna Torres ACL in December. That's a bummer.
01:04:26
Speaker
Probably wouldn't have made a difference.
New Zealand's Qualifying Journey
01:04:28
Speaker
And then the final against New Caledonia, it was a much closer game than the 3-0 scoreline suggests. ah It took New Zealand until the 61st minute to score.
01:04:37
Speaker
Rocky Niakene in goal for New Caledonia had some insane saves. There was a sequence in the first half with about 20 minutes played where basically... ah New Caledonia cleared the ball off the line like three times in 10 seconds and and their goalkeeper made a save. it was it was It was ridiculous.
01:04:52
Speaker
But eventually New Zealand got a set piece, put it in the back pose and put it in the back of the net. From there, they they scored quickly a second goal and that was pretty much that. Special mentions to George Gulp Fennepege who was pulling the strings in midfield for New Caledonia.
01:05:05
Speaker
He was great against Tahiti in the semifinal, did his best against New Zealand. New Zealand go to the World Cup, New Caledonia to the Intercontinental Playoff. We didn't learn anything about New Zealand here. admit They are such a weird national team in that they play this style to make the World Cup, and then they're going to go to the complete opposite end of the spectrum. When they get to the World Cup, they're going to be one of the worst teams at the World Cup, but can be defensively sound and get results.
01:05:30
Speaker
Yeah, nailed it. ah Don't have much to add. I was going to say that's what we will expect from them we see if I could, you know, get we could get some more on them between now and the start of 2026 didn't learn much here lot of opportunities right there's a yeah lot of windows for friendlies I would expect that at some point we're probably going to see New Zealand United States play like that's a very logical friendly match to have happen ah they can pick up some African teams at some point let's see what New Zealand can do against better competition this isn't a real test of of their level let's see what their actual level is I don't think you and I will be backing them to take it out of the group but hey who knows let's see yeah
01:06:07
Speaker
You did not wake up for the 3 a.m. m New Zealand-New Caledonia final? No, I trusted him. I trusted
Argentina's World Cup Performance and Prospects
01:06:13
Speaker
him. Okay. ah Let's go to CONOBOL, Amit, where the defending champions are back in the World Cup. Six-point window for Argentina. Thiago Amada with a golasso for a 1-0 win over Uruguay.
01:06:24
Speaker
It's not the moment. We're 66 minutes into this podcast, but I'm officially concerned about the Marcelo Villalos project with Uruguay. We'll get into that another time. Argentina then bounced off that 1-0 win in Montevideo, came back to Buenos Aires, and had a resounding 4-1 win over Brazil at the Monumental.
01:06:41
Speaker
This was a real illustration of where both of these two teams are. Rafinha made some comments in an interview in a buildup where it just he just poked the bear and he really should not have poked the bear because Argentina came up and they were motivated and they were good.
01:06:56
Speaker
I think this was as good as Argentina have looked since Qatar. This was better than they looked at any point in the Copa America. They did this without Messi. They did this without Lautaro Martinez. This is just flat-out team. Julio Alvarez is a dude.
01:07:07
Speaker
They can run so many different guys that play this system and are just willing to sell out for this. It's special what they've built. I said this to you last night, Amit. Argentina probably aren't going into the World Cup as favorites. They don't have the high-end talent as some of the other teams.
01:07:21
Speaker
But man, if you want to win this World Cup, you're going to have to beat them. And that's going to be a difficult, difficult thing to do. Couldn't agree more. Really impressive, especially without Messi. Thiago Almeida has really, I think, kind of come from the fringes of this squad a year or two ago. And ah what a delightful surprise. And yeah, I think the way you said it, everyone, they just guys, they can throw at you. And certainly, I mean, you you imagine they have Julian Alvarez, who I think has taken a leap into one of the superstars.
01:07:52
Speaker
Then you toss in Lautaro Martinez. they they've going to be able to play both ways. They can play against the ball with the ball. It's really hard for the top level for teams to do. And they can play with low risk. They really run hard. they're really bought in. The chemistry is high. The mentality is high.
01:08:09
Speaker
Yeah. I, I, I think you're spot on. I think when we comes time to handicapping the world's cup, I don't think either of us will have them in one or two, but they're going to be right there. And just that experience has gotten them so far.
01:08:21
Speaker
And Yeah, they they didn't have to be up for this window, but they were yeah for for this. so That says a lot too, doesn't it? Right? like Yeah. This is the dog days, March window, and they just came and they brought it.
01:08:34
Speaker
A lot of credit. And they were so much better than Brazil.
Paraguay's Resilience and Potential
01:08:38
Speaker
ah Reports in Brazil today that they're going to re-up the the Carlo Ancelotti pursuit. Ancelotti perhaps maybe wants to stay at Real Madrid. We call it a World Cup. Let's see where that goes.
01:08:46
Speaker
we've said what we've needed to say about Brazil for, for plenty of times. They did get a really nice late winner from Anisius jr. Against Columbia. More on that in a second. Is there a hotter team international football? Maybe not hot, but is there a team that is more frustrating to play against than Paraguay right now? Amit more results for Gustavo Faro's Paraguay, one nil win off of a set piece to beat Chile in Asuncion.
01:09:07
Speaker
And then they just got flattened for 15 minutes against Columbia. They were two nil down completely out the match. Didn't matter. Came back drew two, two, uh, they're just impossible to beat and they're pressing the right buttons and look, they're not going to get beat by six points over four matches by Venezuela. And that's what it comes down to at this point. You're backing them to make the world cup.
01:09:27
Speaker
I think you have to. Yeah, I think it's pretty set in with the with the results this window. um Yeah, what what you say here, six points in four matches, not the way Venezuela play, and we're going to talk about that.
01:09:40
Speaker
um Yeah, i mean it makes sense in in a vacuum, right? yeah Manager comes in, new manager bounce, kind of revitalizes the striker position, strikers score goals.
01:09:55
Speaker
But if you you poke underneath the hood... there's still There's nothing that makes sense. I know. It's just Alfaro. It's just what he's done for the majority of his career. He's just pushing the right buttons.
01:10:06
Speaker
Yeah. ah Look, if you're going to get all the bounces, you might as well take advantage of them, right? Yeah. It's better to be lucky than good, and it's, you know, at a certain point, lucky enough that you start asking the question, wait, are they good?
01:10:23
Speaker
um No, but they certainly look like it. yeah I mean, yeah, no one who comes down from 2-0 on the road at Columbia? Yeah. Argentina doesn't do that. I think they could if they wanted to, but...
01:10:38
Speaker
I don't know. That's crazy. It's crazy. What is happening? and yeah This Paraguay team defies any analysis. Yeah. They'll be really interesting to watch at the World Cup if if they can continue to do this get against higher level opposition. Let's see. that's That's a conversation to have for another time.
01:10:52
Speaker
Uruguay, Brazil, and Colombia, they're really thankful for World Cup expansion because if if the World Cup hadn't expanded, this would be a dogfight for these last couple of South American spots. None of these teams are playing particularly well. As I said earlier, Benicius Jr. had a winner in the ninety ninth minute for Brazil against Colombia and Brasilia.
01:11:07
Speaker
That was a good bit of positive momentum for Brazil, though they probably went and threw away in in Buenos Aires. Again, you're not backing Venezuela to beat any of these guys by six points over four matches, but if they could, it would be crisis control for any of these teams.
01:11:21
Speaker
They're going to make the World Cup, and they're not going to necessarily do it impressively. Yeah. I think that's said perfectly. um Again, like you said, would have been super fun to see these guys in the tighter window with just four going through.
01:11:36
Speaker
And I think now's not the time, but we're going to have to talk about Uruguay and Brazil a little bit more. And even Colombia. Colombia has been bad since Copa America. The only thing they've done is beat Argentina.
01:11:48
Speaker
Yeah, and we kind of knew that their style is much more tournament suited than ah qualification suited. And again, their team that relies on that set piece, no nonsense, low event football.
01:12:03
Speaker
um I think all of these teams also kind of just realized what the game was here. yeah And we're going to see really spirited efforts from them in 26, obviously.
01:12:14
Speaker
But to the degree of what their struggles through this have told them about their their ceiling, I think that's what we're going to have to parse out between now and then. i don't think we're impressed by either of these three in the end. um At the same time,
01:12:27
Speaker
And all three of these teams could be at a semifinal. Yeah, there's high ceiling. Yeah, so that's what that's what makes them fascinating. um I think this is one where you got you got to gobble up the headlines. Every little headline is a nugget of data that you could that could help you determine what's going on. Because, yeah, it's been a tough go. It's been a tough go last year or so for them.
01:12:50
Speaker
And I think they don't they're just fine with that. you know They're like, let's get the vibes right. 26 leading up, end of this year leading up. and And it's really important for these teams, specifically Uruguay and Colombia, to stay healthy yeah ah in this 25-26 club campaign that hasn't even started yet.
01:13:07
Speaker
So we're we'll we'll check in on these guys and and more to come.
Venezuela's Strategic Position
01:13:12
Speaker
Venezuela, the the big story in Coglu outside of Argentina is that Venezuela is taking control of the fight for seventh They got outplayed significantly by Ecuador and lost 2-1 thanks to a late goal.
01:13:22
Speaker
But while they were doing that, Bolivia were losing 3-1 to Peru, which is really just quite an accomplishment to concede three goals to this Peru team. And then from there, Venezuela got a very ugly 1-0 home win over Peru. It's as ugly as a 1-0 home win as there can be.
01:13:37
Speaker
But I mean, they finally got some bounces. I don't know if it was a penalty, on the the the penalty that Rondon scored. I don't know if it was a handball on the goal that was chopped off for Peru, but they were both called that way. Venezuela took advantage of it.
01:13:51
Speaker
Yeah, I think we said Venezuela didn't get the bounces for like four to six match days. yeah They finally did. Penalty was soft. And then the other way, the handball probably was a handball, like you said,
01:14:05
Speaker
Venezuela have really tested the patience. And this was ah definitively not a good defensive team. And they are also not great attacking, but are they good enough to be the seventh best team in this region?
01:14:25
Speaker
I think we have enough data that the answer is yes. And at the end of the day, Nothing else matters. Right. I said this to you yesterday, right? Like, you're like, oh, man, that was ugly for minutes. I was like, yeah, but they were better than Peru. And that appears to be the bar for seventh, right? Like, if you can be better than Peru, you can finish in seventh.
01:14:43
Speaker
That's what they did. Bolivia, meanwhile, after that 3-1 loss to Peru, came to El Alto and honestly they looked as tired as Uruguay did at the end of their nil-nil draw with Marcelo Bielsa's side. They just needed the ball to go in the back of the net and it just didn't. They didn't create any golden chances. They had good opportunities.
01:14:59
Speaker
They just couldn't beat Sergio Rochette. They tried to beat him from distance a bunch and and he was just up to the task. Chile, meanwhile, lost 1-0 to Paraguay and played a horrendously ugly nil-nil draw against Ecuador. They are just not good.
01:15:10
Speaker
And as we said, Peru beat Bolivia and and lost to Venezuela. That leaves Venezuela in control. They are one point clear of Bolivia. They are five clear of Peru and Chile. They are four matches to play and admit Venezuela host Bolivia in June.
01:15:23
Speaker
Bolivia are going to need something from that match or else I think Venezuela are going to run and hide in the fight for seventh. And they could maybe even put pressure on for a spot at six. But as as we've said, it's really hard to envision Venezuela beating any of these teams by six points over four matches.
01:15:37
Speaker
Yeah, I don't think so. I think we've we've kind of finally got that clarity we were looking for for so long. um Yeah, did we talk about the Bolivia versus Uruguay game at all?
01:15:49
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it was, yeah, it was nil-nil. Rochette made some big saves, good opportunities for Bolivia. They needed to score it in. I think it was pretty emblematic of what we said maybe three two or three, four match days ago that, like, this was all good in fun while it was, yeah but it was just going to be hard to do it. and you saw And to your point, what you said is exactly what it was. Like, good few good saves from the required goalkeeper. Like, they they just needed it.
01:16:18
Speaker
They needed it so desperately. And they got a team without its best players. And they could huff and they could puff at El Alto and they had all the tricks in the bag. And at the end of the day, they still couldn't get it.
01:16:29
Speaker
And it's accurate. It's accurate. Yeah. for Yeah, and and and it was what we said, right? like They rode their luck to that 1-0 win at home against Colombia, and then they needed to do it again, and they just weren't able to. And now they're going to have to go to Venezuela and somehow get something for that match, and that's just not an easy proposition for them. They still have two more home matches that they can maybe take advantage of Venezuela are definitely the favorites to to make seventh year.
01:16:54
Speaker
Let's close out this show that has gone on for a very long time a
Bosnia and Norway's UEFA Nations Journey
01:16:58
Speaker
bit. And let's talk UEFA because this was a thing that happened too. We're going to run you through the results that matter. we We don't have to go. We're way too early in this process to to need to go in in any more depth.
01:17:07
Speaker
But I think there were some some results that that are worth noting here. Bosnia and Herzegovina, a 1-0 away win against Romania on the first match day. Bosnia are old. They're relying on some of those guys that that made that World Cup appearance in Brazil in 2014.
01:17:21
Speaker
But Kolasinac found Gigovic at the back post. Bosnia is scored early in this match and they held on. I don't think either of these teams are are great, but I think they have what it takes to finish second. And that makes them relevant in this conversation.
01:17:32
Speaker
100%. This was one of the games we had circled. I didn't watch this one, um but... if you If you take my word that Bosnia and Herzegovina were just a little bit better, sure.
01:17:45
Speaker
let's Let's see if they can push for the top one. Norway, 4-2 winners against Israel in an away match played on neutral soil. admit, Norway looked pretty darn good. I thought they responded from a counterpunch that Israel threw at them to make this match 1-1.
01:17:59
Speaker
ah Let's see how Italy looks in this group. Italy fell into this group after the Nations League results. There's an argument to be made that Norway can just finish first in this group. It's an argument. I mean, we've seen a team like Italy struggle or a big dog always struggle.
01:18:15
Speaker
which Italy struggle, right? yeah's what It is. Yeah, that's what I was saying. Yeah. um Norway's we're solid. And obviously we we we mentioned the talent beforehand, right? Holland, Sorlot, they got out of guard.
01:18:27
Speaker
They're pretty slick with the ball. And Israel, I think we thought were solid. And Norway, we're kind of all over them. Israel shouldn't have even equalized. I'm not saying they didn't deserve to, right? But like,
01:18:38
Speaker
It was one-way traffic, and then Norway didn't panic, just kind of went back to their attacking patterns. Their strikers can put pressure on you. um Yeah, it'll be a really fun plot to see if they can push Italy, who we know are...
01:18:54
Speaker
Good, but not elite at all. We we we we think Italy's a lot of like guys in their roles, kind of very workman-like. Norway's got some talent. So this was a ah really interesting data point for me.
01:19:06
Speaker
i was ah I was impressed. I was impressed. And obviously when you have two great strikers, right, you can surprise them. you can surprise Yeah, and and and both of them scored Sorloth and Holland in this match.
01:19:19
Speaker
This was the start that Norway needed after having really bad qualification campaigns for major tournaments for a very long time now. And the last match that I wanted to to highlight here, drama from the Europeans as well.
Wales and North Macedonia's Competitive Draw
01:19:29
Speaker
North Macedonia won, Wales won.
01:19:31
Speaker
It looked like Miofsky had given North Macedonia a late winner because Joe Allen, yeah, that's right, Stoke City legend Joe Allen, had a bad mistake in the midfield. North Macedonia pounds. It was the 91st minute. They looked to and won it.
01:19:43
Speaker
Sure, it came off in celebration. And then Wales did some hoof and chase in the last minutes of stoppage time, and and big old Kiefer Moore held it up. They kind of pinballed around in the box and David Brooks lashed it home.
01:19:54
Speaker
Big, big result for Wales that keeps them on level terms with North Macedonia. Both of these teams won their first match. North Macedonia against Liechtenstein. Wales against Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan then went and beat Liechtenstein.
01:20:05
Speaker
So it's North Macedonia on four. Wales on four. Kazakhstan on three. Belgium have yet to play. They are the favorites in this group. This a big result eventually down the line for determining who's going to finish second.
01:20:16
Speaker
You still back Wales, as we joked on the preview pod, throw Wales in the p playoff and we'll check it then. But no, I mean, you have to finish it out. I watched an alarming amount of Wales Kazakhstan and having watched all the calf and the Asian stuff, it was honestly really mind numbing because whale ah the part I was watching Wales had the lead yeah and it was just just nasty stuff playing keep away.
01:20:39
Speaker
um But to your point about the way Wales got the equalizer here, right? Wales again are very competent. They're like in the European context, like quite boring, but like compared to a lot of the teams we watch, they can, they can do more things.
01:20:53
Speaker
They are solid. They're the type of team that is just that European filler that can still do things at a world cup or in a playoff. So we'll see a big point to your, ah to your thing that, you know, this could actually matter in terms of the playoff.
01:21:08
Speaker
Again, I'll still hold we'll and put Wales in. We'll see him there. But yeah, It was a missed opportunity for North Macedonia, right? Yeah, to pull off an upset. yeah They could have upset Wales here. They could have gotten ahead of them the standings and and they weren't able to see it out.
01:21:21
Speaker
All the other results in Europe, I think, pretty much went according to plan. Our pot five friends came away with zero points, unfortunately. And San Marino did score, though. They got smashed, but they scored against Romania.
01:21:32
Speaker
England won twice. I unfortunately had the the displeasure of watching a bit of Poland against Lithuania. Again, just mistakes. Poland should just never be watched. Lithuania picked up a point against Finland. That could theoretically be relevant.
01:21:44
Speaker
You want to break down England, Latvia, or England, Albania? The answer is no. yeah know there's no We'll talk about England later. theyre the The whole Tuchel thing is fascinating, but it's not for not for now. Okay, that's good. We're not going to get the answers against Latvia and I'll pay that at Wembley.
01:22:03
Speaker
ah The other thing to note about UEFA Nations League quarterfinals happened this weekend. and There were some insane – I didn't watch any of it, but there were some insane scorelines from what I could tell. Those determined who fell into what group.
01:22:15
Speaker
I'll do my plug here. If you want to figure all that out, I mean, you can just Wikipedia it. Or you can go to the World Cup Qualification Masters spreadsheet that you can get by becoming a patron of the World Cup After Dark podcast for $3 a month. If you're really desperate to figure out who Germany – what group Germany fell into, you can just check it out there on the spreadsheet.
Concluding Thoughts on Football Action
01:22:31
Speaker
All right, that's going to wrap us up here. we went on for a very long time, but that's because there was a lot of football to break down. This might be just about as jam-packed of a window as we will get in this qualification cycle. We're go to get some qualifications kind of winding down here over the next few windows and obviously some heating up, particularly in UEFA. What to look forward to in June.
01:22:50
Speaker
Talked about it a lot. The third round will wrap up in Asia. Connival will have its penultimate set of matches, match at a 15 and 16 of 18. CONCACAF is back after a year-long absence. We'll set the field for the qualifying chase run there.
01:23:06
Speaker
And a few a few more good UEFA teams will show up to the party. And maybe admit, at some point between now and then, we'll have to get together record a pod on the U.S. Men's National Team because, ah wow, that was something. Yeah. Yeah.
01:23:19
Speaker
Canned Greg got potch. Not so rosy, is it? No, that's the that's the online, like, actually, Greg was fine. At some point, we will get into it if we want to. And it's a very interesting discussion. It is more nuanced than just that, you know, reductionist take.
01:23:35
Speaker
um But yeah, of course, who doesn't love talking about the U.S. Men's National Team? Bogey Team, Panama, the Conaleros making trouble for the U.S. yet again. All right, that's it for us again. If you want to support what we do, you can become a WCAD. $3 a month to support what it is we do here a World Cup After Dark. We hope that you enjoyed at least like 10% of the international football that you watched this window. If you watched 10% the international football that we watched, you certainly came away with a good experience.
01:24:03
Speaker
We are happy to not have international football to watch for a couple of days. I think we've watched a lot over the past few days, but we enjoyed it all. We love breaking it down with you guys as always. So that's it from us here.
01:24:14
Speaker
We will talk to you guys soon.