Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
WCAD 3-38: Nigeria Meet the Moment
55 Plays2 days ago
Austin and Amit recap a jam-packed October window, with World Cup tickets handed out and drama across continents. First, they tackle the last matchdays in Africa, including Nigeria's stellar performance, Cape Verde's historic achievement and plenty of Second Place drama. Then, the guys recap Asia's Fourth Round as hosts Saudi Arabia and Qatar secured their spot in the World Cup. Next comes a trip around the consistently crazy CONCACAF, with up and down showings from big favorites like Panama and Costa Rica and upstarts like Suriname and Curacao. Finally, they take a trip to the European lightning round, headlined by Sweden's failures.
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction to World Cup Qualifiers
00:00:01
Speaker
Nine World Cup tickets later and a whole lot of fun. The October international window is behind us. This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. going to break down just about everything we saw as we handed out more World Cup tickets, as we lived through much more drama, and as we built up to what's even going to be a more dramatic November
Discussion with Austin Miller and Amit Malik
00:00:18
Speaker
window. My name is Austin Miller. I am joined, as always, by Amit Malik.
00:00:22
Speaker
i mean I was tempted to say but we're go to break down everything, that we saw, going to break down everything we saw, and that we saw everything, but we did not see everything, because we did not see Latvia 0, England 5, continuing our streak of not watching England throughout these World Cup qualifiers.
00:00:36
Speaker
Hey, they're in. And that's all we all we need to say about that. no but There was plenty of more fun stuff to talk about that we
Regional Qualifiers Overview
00:00:44
Speaker
did watch. So that's why we're here. Harry Kane for the penalty spot in that game. I did watch. I lied to you a bit. I watched the last 90 seconds because everything else had had kind of wrapped up and I put on the stream to see the celebrations. It was just kind of like.
00:00:56
Speaker
All right. Good little handshake. Harry Kane, you know, doing this this is kind of fake celebration thing. But we do have an actual lot to break down of things that did matter and don't involve Harry Kane scoring from a penalty spot on today's show.
00:01:07
Speaker
We'll break down the calf craziness. We'll talk about that Asian fourth round. We will touch on the continued drama in CONCACAF, and we will wrap with a quick look at where things stand in
African Teams' Performance
00:01:18
Speaker
Europe.
00:01:18
Speaker
But a bit, let's start in Africa. This was where the drama was going into it. The last match day of African World Cup qualifying. World Cup tickets on the line. Spot in the playoffs on the line.
00:01:31
Speaker
Let's start with the big picture here, right? We had a couple tickets punched when we came into this window. We punched a lot more in fairly easy fashion. We said coming in that it would be easy for Egypt and Algeria. It was. i think we're both fairly intrigued by by these sides of the World Cup, but I also think we're fairly...
00:01:48
Speaker
I don't want to say not optimistic, but that's kind of what we are, right? getting Being organized gets you far. In CAF, when you take that to the world stage, it doesn't quite get you as far. And that's what these two teams are. Yeah, agreed.
00:02:00
Speaker
I think the other terms we might use is say high floor, low ceiling. They're not the types of teams that can really to punch a high above their weight just because they lack kind of top-end talent.
00:02:13
Speaker
um But the organization matters, and that's what got them here so solidly. um I think we'll have a lot more to say as we see them at AFCON against tough competition. And of course, the draw, the draw. Let's see the draw for these teams. But um we'll we'll touch base with them more. Again, job well done. They had easy groups.
00:02:30
Speaker
They took care of Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Ghana also all won twice to qualify without a whole lot of fuss, particularly in Senegal's case. Ivory Coast didn't concede a goal throughout the entirety of qualification. I think that's a positive sign going into the World Cup.
00:02:44
Speaker
Ghana, Amit, got it done. and There wasn't much fuss. They went and played Central African Republic in Morocco, and they smashed them. And then it didn't really matter what happened on the last match day. Round of applause for them, right? They're going to be the lowest-ranked African team to to to be in the World Cup draw, but they were pretty solid here.
00:03:00
Speaker
Yeah, I think they're dangerous as a World Cup team and impressive for them to get the job done as it went on, ah doing better as it went on. We know the attacking talent's there, and and when it came down to crunch time, ah the defense was there.
00:03:14
Speaker
i Again, I understand the ranking is lower than some of these other teams, but I actually like the talent quite a bit, so they'll they'll be fun.
Senegal and Cape Verde's Journey
00:03:21
Speaker
And then and for Senegal, I think similar narrative of improving as play went on.
00:03:26
Speaker
But the fact that they actually took care of it so solidly, I think, speaks to their pedigree. Again, in just terms of talent, i think I think they're up there with Ivory Coast for the most talent in CAF.
00:03:37
Speaker
i'm um a moroc Morocco is obviously in a tier, but outside of them, I think they're right there. um and They played better soccer as it went on, and I think they figured out their identity as it went on, leaning away from some of their older players that went to Saudi Arabia and leaning into some of their younger players who run like crazy.
00:03:58
Speaker
They're not going to be a fun team to see because, you know, and like any good team at a World Cup, where do the goals come from? Is your number nine hot or not? Is someone a finisher or not? But they just – they're miserable to play against because they're very good at winning the ball. They cover a lot of ground and they showed that in, in this window.
00:04:16
Speaker
um They needed a big score line. They got a big score line. That's hard to do. Yeah, and Sadio Mane still got it, right? Like, he was really good against Baratania. Like, i don't care where that guy goes. he's's He's still quite talented.
00:04:29
Speaker
And so then the other tickets of it, as as we get into to kind of digging into this more granularly, Cape Verde are going to the World Cup. This window started in a negative fashion, I think you could say, for Cape Verde, with a 3-3 draw in Tripoli against Livia. Absolutely bonkers match that at one point, both teams pretty much...
00:04:47
Speaker
Well, Libya, Cape Verde, I should say, knew that a loss wouldn't really cost them while Libya knew that they had to win. And so after this match went back and forth all game with a couple of really, really bad goalkeeping errors from Libya, this game just opened up for the last seven or so minutes where these teams just went back and forth. And at one point, Cape Verde were four on one and then got denied by an offside flag that probably shouldn't have denied him.
00:05:09
Speaker
In the end, this didn't really matter, but this was just like a Wednesday morning shot of of calf qualifying, right? Yeah, this is what can happen when you know that the game didn't matter for Cape Verde, and it almost just led to this super weird state where they...
00:05:26
Speaker
You know, they shouldn't have gone down. No point should you go down to Libya. But we had said it's a tricky road trip. tripuff Yeah, they played some nice stuff. Yeah, they played some stuff. And I'll see who we've seen a lot at the international level as the Libya manager. You give that guy time, he'll probably do things with them.
00:05:39
Speaker
Yeah. and But what was fun was Cape Verde being like, you know, we could chase this game. Libya are definitely not good enough to hold on to to this lead. And they really made them sweat it out.
00:05:50
Speaker
um Again, the goalkeeping mistakes are also what makes Libya Libya. But that like you said, the the ending was just bonkers because it was perfect conditions for both teams to go at it.
00:06:00
Speaker
And at one point, Libya was like, you know what? It does not matter if we concede. We're leaving one guy back. If you, Cape Verde, can get the ball to our half, you will score. That was the state for the last five minutes.
00:06:13
Speaker
ah it's You almost never see it that pronounced. And they they, as you said, that goal really should not have been ruled off sides, but um just bonkers, just fun. glad we Glad we got to see it. And um if it wasn't that way, ah when I say that way, if it wasn't, the loss didn't matter for Cape Verde, I'd have be a lot more harsh on this result.
00:06:35
Speaker
But instead, it's a lot like funnier in hindsight. Yeah. And it created a really, really great scene in Praia for the last match for Cape Verde. They came back. They hosted Eswatini. The pressure was fully on because they had Cameroon chasing behind them after Cameroon had huffed and puffed on the first match day to get by Mauritius 2-0.
00:06:54
Speaker
ah The pressure was on Cape Verde because they had this Cameroon team nipping at their heels. They knew that if they didn't win, they'd probably have to settle for a spot in the African playoffs. It took him a while, a minute. It was the the breezy, classic, windy day in Cape Verde where you just see the flags blowing. The the crowd was incredible.
00:07:11
Speaker
ah But the walls came crumbling down for Eswatini in the second half. It's fitting that Dairon Levermento scored the opener for Cape Verde. He's been one of their best players in this qualification cycle. And then it was a really cool moment when the 37 year old right back Stopira who hadn't been called in for two years, I think just got called in for like vibe celebration reasons, gets called in, gets a chance in this match and comes on and scores to make it three nil and ah get me one of them Tiberois shirts that they were wearing at the end there. What a great scene. Like this is the positive of the world cup expansion. Right.
00:07:44
Speaker
And I think Cape bird would have been in with a shout for a 32 team competition, the way that they played, but like, First ever World Cup moment for them, and they're well-deserving of it, and and they're an absolutely great story. It's an island nation of 600,000 people that you wouldn't think would be anywhere near the World Cup, and here they are on the world's biggest stage and well-deserving of it.
00:08:02
Speaker
100%. It's an awesome storyline. We've both kind of always had an eye on them as a frisky team. If you go back to the AFCON last year, and even at the start of qualification, we said they could do it.
00:08:15
Speaker
But then to actually finish above Cameroon over a whole window speaks to their talent. And Cameroon certainly slipped up, but Cape Verde had to take the points when they did,
00:08:29
Speaker
and And it's a great project. I think they're kind of ah ah you know a little ahead of schedule, but with the 48-team World Cup, this kind of thing can happen. um The scouting for teams like Cape Verde, but specifically for Cape Verde,
00:08:44
Speaker
has been really good. They've improved their pool. A guy like Livermento is a very solid player who plays in Serie A. Montedo, I'm in, right? Montedo, I threw some Spanish at you there because the Montedo, it just leads right to it. And so I just i just threw the Tambien at you. Yeah, and yeah he's always been one of my favorite players, you know? um and It speaks also to, i think, something, a theme in larger um international soccer that, again, you and I have seen for a long time, but we like to harp on, is when you've kind of got the diaspora of maybe a little Portuguese, maybe a little Dutch, and you've got some technical players in your pool, and you can use your leverage, your scouting to get these guys in and get them a manager that plays with the ball.
00:09:31
Speaker
Listen, every every continent is different, but if you can do things with the ball consistently and then back it up with enough organization, you're going to be a good team. So I do think this was the perfect blend for them. I think if you played this qualification cycle out 100 times, I don't think they get in like 70, 80, but they did enough. 100% they get enough. And i we're both going to give them credit.
00:09:53
Speaker
um Again, we're going to see. I think they're... they're They're slightly worse, honestly, than than Egypt and Algeria, but they're so much more fun. They play fun soccer. So I think they're just going to be a ah ah darling um in 2026 in the United States.
00:10:09
Speaker
And these scenes were incredible. Again, yeah this is why we watched the whole thing. super Super thrilled for Cape Verde and for their fans and for always having fun atmospheres throughout all of qualifying. It wasn't just this game. It had been the whole way.
00:10:22
Speaker
And the fans, the home fans made a difference. 100% made a difference. Yeah, and like, look, this this qualification cycle came down to a couple of things in this group. Cameroon slipped up too many times. They drew against Eswatini.
00:10:34
Speaker
You can't do that. They drew against, saying like, Cape Verde had their slip-ups as well. They slipped up more than Cape Verde did, and Cape Verde beat Cameroon head-to-head when they had to, right? They beat them instead of drawing them. That gave them the advantage. That gave them the opportunity to slip up against Libya in the first round here.
00:10:47
Speaker
And they were well-deserving of it. And Cameroon even went and in drew against Angola in this last match, which, which as you'll see, was was actually very important. So a round of applause to Cameroon. And it is really hard to beat a better team over 10. We've seen this throughout Africa. We saw we had our Comoroses.
00:11:00
Speaker
We had our Sedans. We saw teams who put together a good
CAF Playoff Confusion and Highlights
00:11:03
Speaker
run to get in position and then just faded because over 10 matches to be that good that consistently is really hard in this confederation. Yeah, the the goal difference, Cameroon had a better goal difference.
00:11:13
Speaker
And I think that speaks to just the the point that Cape Verde were opportunistic, complimentary opportunistic. You know, you have to be good and get the points at the right time.
00:11:24
Speaker
And they did. And that's credit to them. And because of that, they're they're going to the World Cup. So we'll touch on Group C here in a minute. But I want to come to the second place in Sanity because we've been talking about how the African playoffs are formatted so that only four second place teams go from the nine groups.
00:11:38
Speaker
We had this confusion. i won't even call it confusion. We just straight up didn't know how that table was going to be constructed once Eritrea pulled out of qualification because there was one group that had fewer teams.
00:11:49
Speaker
Apparently, and credit to to the International Window podcast for bringing this to light, CAF had sent a letter to all of their confederations that in in March saying that the results against the sixth place team would not count towards that table.
00:12:04
Speaker
So those results would be scratched out and your results against the top five teams would count. And then with that table then constructed, the top four teams would would move on to the African playoff.
00:12:16
Speaker
That information became known between the penultimate and final match days publicly. Apparently, this was had already been decided. It was already known to the nations, but nobody decided to tell the journalists and fans covering this tournament.
00:12:28
Speaker
So what that set up was a situation where a couple of teams were benefited, primarily Nigeria, who got to drop two draws against the worst team in their group in Zimbabwe. And it hurt a couple of teams. It also helped, obviously, Niger, who didn't have sixth place games to count.
00:12:43
Speaker
And it also helped some teams. And it hurt other teams because of that Nigeria situation. So all of that set up this situation. We're going into the last match day, and that's where I'm bringing this full circle. We knew that Gabon and Ivory Coast, whoever finished second in that group,
00:12:59
Speaker
Cameroon, the DR Congo, and Madagascar controlled their own destiny going into the last match day. If they won, they would guarantee themselves at least a spot in the playoff and also have a chance to to get a spot in the World Cup.
00:13:10
Speaker
Gabon Amit got that role after what might have been the wildest match of this window, a 4-3 win over the Gambia on the first match day, where Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang just refused to let his team lose, and scoring four goals for Gabon, and also picked up a red card because he got a first yellow when he smashed the corner flag after his fourth goal, and then got a second yellow for getting into it with it with a Gambian midfielder.
00:13:33
Speaker
That was big for Gabon as it turned out because that win proved to be the difference for them in making the playoff. If they had not won that match of it, they would have been out of the playoff because they would not have simply would not have had the points necessary to make it up the table. They obviously got, ah they got beat by Ivory Coast to first place in the group.
00:13:50
Speaker
But that was one of those moments where this table ended up constructed in such a way that all of these little moments throughout qualification ended up mattering for these teams.
00:14:01
Speaker
Yeah, the it's a nuts by calf. um But it's... It just is what it is. And I think to you to your point that um all the little ones and the moments and that are mattering, this was crazy. I guess you can't really pick, like, one other thing.
00:14:20
Speaker
um The... The Abameyang performance was insane, first of all. It was truly insane. And then...
00:14:32
Speaker
Cameroon was also insane. I guess they weren't even the most insane, right? The DR Congo part of the final day was was crazier. Madagascar had kind of done the work the match before.
00:14:43
Speaker
Yeah, so all of this built up to a spot where going into that last match, as I said, those teams all controlled their destiny. And then there were a bunch of teams chasing behind that needed one or more of those teams to slip up to have a chance to to make it to the table.
00:14:56
Speaker
And what happened was Madagascar, who had a really, really good qualification cycle, right? They beat Comoros 2-1 in this driving rainstorm on the penultimate match day, a match that in the last five minutes, you could tell the ref was like, I have two options here.
00:15:10
Speaker
I can either stop this match and spend the next 48 hours of my life on this island watching, waiting for them to play the last five minutes of this game, or I can just let them play Puddleball for five minutes. And they played Puddleball for five minutes and Madagascar won the match.
00:15:23
Speaker
But then, Amit, they had a really difficult match against Mali on Sunday, and they got smoked. They got beat 4-1. It was never really close. It was a must-win game for Madagascar. It was a meaningless game for Mali. But Mali, who had bent up and down but had put in good performances at points in this qualification cycle, put in a good performance against Madagascar.
00:15:39
Speaker
That dropped Madagascar out of this ranking. It wasn't ever really close to this game. And that, then, Amit, opened up the doors for all the teams behind All those teams that I had said going into this, All right, they need someone to slip up because there were all these teams that were choked up at 12 points with this weird goal differential situation.
00:15:56
Speaker
They needed one of those teams to lose. Madagascar was the team that lost, and this is where the insanity comes in. So first up comes Burkina Faso. They beat Sierra Leone 1-0 in their first game and then beat Ethiopia 3-1 in their second game.
00:16:08
Speaker
That left them sitting on 15 points and plus six in decent shape with the Madagascar loss. And admit, as we look towards this, as we look back, man, they're going to wish that they had found one more goal somewhere else in this qualification cycle, right? And it's all those things that at the moment don't matter, right?
00:16:23
Speaker
You're holding out for a big three points against Sierra Leone, where if you had just committed four, that second goal was probably there and they didn't get Yeah, I see what you're what you we were getting at from the start. And yes, there were big hitters to come that were going to, you don't know what they were going to score.
00:16:41
Speaker
But to your point, every goal mattered. Did they know at the time? Did Burkina Fassa know? no Like, because there's no to There's no way to know. And and the three points were the right most important thing, you know, especially over in the first game against Sierra Leone. But ah This is where the margins were very fine. Burkina Faso, again, a very solid team throughout qualification. I think if you play this thing back, they'd be very pleased with how they played, right? Right.
00:17:08
Speaker
But they didn't have the information advantage of getting the last laugh like the teams were about to. And this is just where it's just a crapshoot, right? like Yeah. Burkina Faso did pick to to play their game on Sunday and give Nigeria and the teams after them who played... like And again, you I don't think you it's not justifiable to play all of the games at the same time. can you imagine trying to follow that on the last match day?
00:17:30
Speaker
But they they they got hurt by not having the information, I think, because Ethiopia was a team they could have gotten in, etc. It's a really tough break for them to see their World Cup qualification cycle end like that. Then Cameroon went at the same time as Cape Verde on Monday.
00:17:44
Speaker
Cameroon didn't win any awards, but they were able to draw nil-nil with Angola, and that proved to be enough because they had stacked up good goal differential earlier on in the campaign, and that got them at a high enough spot in the playoff, at a high enough spot in that table to make the playoff.
00:17:58
Speaker
And that, Amit, brings us to our beloved Group C. So on Tuesday, we had the Group C matchups, and then we had that DR Congo game that we'll get to in a minute.
00:18:09
Speaker
It was as wild as we expected. ah On Friday, Benin beat Rwanda 1-0. Rwanda still had a chance to make the World Cup. They went all out. Paul Kagame was there in attendance.
00:18:20
Speaker
They played everything they could play. Benin bunkered, encountered, and then just went the rudest one of root ones you'll ever see. Goalkeeper, long ball, Steve Mounier, knockdown, strike, boom, 1-0. We'll take our three points. We'll go.
00:18:33
Speaker
Sure. Great. That's how it goes sometimes. Yeah, I mean, that was cruel for Rwanda, who really, really brought their best effort. And as you said, it was comical how direct it was.
00:18:48
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, there's there's more to come
Nigeria's Qualification Challenges
00:18:51
Speaker
in. It was so direct that the TV broadcast didn't even have it. Right? Like, we just get this cut to this Benin dude with the ball in the box scoring. and It's like, well, how'd that happen? and then you realize, ah it was a goal kick. And in five seconds, they scored.
00:19:02
Speaker
Yeah, and and credit to Benin's defense, which was, again, too much for Rwanda. they They couldn't get any good quality shots inside the box. they were just kind of They were just kind of, ah hopefully, you know, getting the ball forward in not dangerous positions. It's tough. Which is also kind of a product of being Rwanda, right? like ah yeah they They weren't that good, and they were lucky to be in this even foursome on the final two games.
00:19:29
Speaker
Yeah. So then at the same time, South Africa drew Zimbabwe 0-0. This was South Africa's response to the to three-point point deduction. There were aimless crosses. There were few dangerous chances. This was two draft points that looked like it could have severely cost them.
00:19:44
Speaker
Because at the same time as those two matches, Nigeria beat Lesotho 2-1 in an away match that was played in South Africa. I mean, it took Nigeria a while. They needed a penalty from William Truesdaqong.
00:19:56
Speaker
and They finally saw out a big result. They almost didn't because they gave Lasuthu needless lifeline with bad defending and and left themselves way too open at the end. But they finally got three points over the line, and it set up this massive, massive final day on Tuesday.
00:20:11
Speaker
I mean, this was just a disappointing performance for South Africa. um And we're going to get to the final day, but... They they were didn't have enough urgency to get their numbers forward.
00:20:23
Speaker
As you said, lots of aimless crosses. um You would have hoped for a better performance. And Zimbabwe's not great. I know they're not they're not in the bad, bad tiers of African teams.
00:20:35
Speaker
um But this was kind of dull from South Africa. um But they had... they had more to play with. I, I don't know. Yeah. and the The Nigeria game was as fun. That was as funny as an ending as you had. There was a real, like five minutes of panic there.
00:20:51
Speaker
They almost blew it. We're going to do this again. guess like we already did this against the suit through this window. We're going to it again. um But then that set up this final match day where there were all these complicated scenarios, right? The easiest way to look at it was Benin needed to win to make the World Cup.
00:21:07
Speaker
South Africa needed to win and for Benin to lose. Nigeria needed to win and for South Africa to lose or draw. And Nigeria also had this alternate scenario where, given the way that the table had shaken out before them, they needed to win by four goals in order to pass Burkina Faso and make themselves assured of a spot in the playoff.
00:21:28
Speaker
And we didn't get individual drama in these matches because South Africa beat Rwanda by three to nil. Nigeria beat Benin by four to nil, which i as you just learned was a very, very important four nil win for Nigeria.
00:21:41
Speaker
Um, the The actual nuts and bolts late drama wasn't there, but it still delivered because there was Nigeria chasing this fourth goal and this question of whether Nigeria needed it or not.
00:21:52
Speaker
Let's start with South Africa. Everything they didn't do against Zimbabwe, they did against Rwanda. They did not leave this match in doubt for very long. They scored in the first five minutes. They played well. They created good chances. They finished good chances. Scoring early makes life so much easier in these types of matches.
00:22:09
Speaker
Yeah, all the nice things that we said about Cape Verde at the start, you know, you could apply a lot, not all of them, but a lot of them to to South Africa to finish above Nigeria over the whole campaign. Really impressive.
00:22:21
Speaker
I think a team for, again, AFCON this cycle we had circled is intriguing, but didn't expect them to be better. And I think they've been one of the teams that just my overall opinion of them have changed the most.
00:22:32
Speaker
They are still capable of playing a bad game. a lot of the time, but they are capable of um getting the job done when it counts, which they did here. They didn't, they just jumped on it right from the start.
00:22:45
Speaker
And there, there is some talent in this South Africa. There is just enough. um They're pretty solid defensively. I think they are better defensively than Nigeria. So that's at least something. goalkeeper Right. Ronald Williams is good.
00:22:57
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. um
00:23:01
Speaker
As you said, not that dramatic here. ah I was hoping it would get more fun. But to to talk about Nigeria for a second, which I know we you just did and we're about to do, this still came down to the last few minutes to get that fourth goal.
00:23:14
Speaker
Yeah, so this this happened in such a manner that Nigeria put together their one and only complete performance of World Cup qualification. The one time this entire cycle where they just said, all right, time to play.
00:23:24
Speaker
And the guy who said it was Victor Oshiman, who has carried them throughout this cycle, has kept them alive when they probably should have been dead and buried. And he showed up against Benin and said, all right, just give me the ball. I'm going to do it.
00:23:35
Speaker
And he did it. He scored three goals. Absolute dude. Hatch of performance scored early. And the early goals for Nigeria coupled with the early goals for South Africa left these two matches in kind of this cycle where, all right, it looks like South Africa going to qualify.
00:23:48
Speaker
Nigeria has two options. They're either going to pass Burkina Faso by winning four nil, or they're going to be on the bubble and they're going to have to wait and see what Derek Congo does later. And to their credit, a confederation, a national team that has been unorganized, has been undisciplined, has defended poorly, has given up bad results at all of the wrong times, put it together, and it was very clear that they knew if we can win by four, our World Cup dream does not die today.
00:24:14
Speaker
They knew it, they chased it, and they got You nailed it perfectly. It was very clear watching that they were aware of the scenarios. They kept their phone on the gas, and they also, again, didn't let Benin...
00:24:28
Speaker
ah into the game, um which is which again, before it was 3-0, Benin was trying. Benin was huffing and puffing at 2-0 to get um back in this game because Benin knew their only way is to win this game.
00:24:40
Speaker
I think that also helped them playing a team like Benin that was invested in trying to win. Let's say you're playing um the e what an Eswatini-type game or Lesotho-type game.
00:24:52
Speaker
you Maybe you're up two, and the other team is like, that's great. We're going to stay bunkered because... We're trying to protect, we know, damage control, but that wasn't the case for Benin. And I think that third goal really swung it because at two zero, still a back and forth game, Benin has the ball. Nigeria is countering Nigeria gets a set piece.
00:25:11
Speaker
That's where awesome men can shine. Great header. And I mean, he was, was great, as you said, great the whole time, but really great set piece header. And then from there at three Oh, then it was like, well, Benin's not winning this game.
00:25:24
Speaker
So Nigeria had also knew, right? Like you could tell Benin also knew. And then Nigeria was like, well, like we're trying to keep up from getting four. Yeah. But at that point, Nigeria was like, well, now we just get 20 minutes to go hunt for the fourth that we need.
00:25:37
Speaker
And, it worked out It worked out perfectly for them. They also, to their credit, played it perfectly, as you said. And the scenes were hilarious on the fourth goal. The scenes to score a 90th minute 4-0 to stay alive in the second place for a four-team playoff for one's But like, it doesn't matter.
00:25:56
Speaker
Good job, Nigeria. You kept it alive. it This was fun. This was perhaps not the, again, as I said, the explosive ending we could have gotten in Group C, but a very good ending and some very good um game theory from Nigeria.
00:26:10
Speaker
Yeah, and also very quickly as we as we wrap up on this group, I'm happy for South Africa because they deserved it, right? They got docked three points for an administrative error. Obviously, you shouldn't do that and all of that, but they were the best team in this group, and they should they could have qualified by an even bigger margin that they are the team that's going to the World Cup. for the group at least to me feels fair.
00:26:30
Speaker
And so all of that then boiled down to this last window where we had the dueling Ivory Coast Gabon matches that weren't all that interesting because Ivory Coast scored early because that's what they always do.
00:26:41
Speaker
And then we had the dueling DR Congo Senegal matches where it wasn't that interesting from a Senegal perspective because they, again, kind of just took care of business. But it boiled down to DR Congo against Sudan where DR Congo needed to win. And if they didn't win, Burkina Faso was going to the playoff. And if they did win, they were going to the playoff.
00:26:57
Speaker
And it was just this yucky, ugly game in Kinshasa where a tight angle shot from Thierry Bongondo right on the half hour mark is the difference. And Dierkongo from that point just kind of said, all right, Sudan, play the ball.
00:27:09
Speaker
And as we saw throughout this qualification cycle, Sudan playing the ball wasn't exactly their strong suit. And Dierkongo got it over the line and are going to the playoff because of it. Yeah, ugly game.
00:27:20
Speaker
Dierkongo did the job. They let Sudan... beat not beat themselves, but you know they they kind of had the perfect game plan for it. um I think D or Congo exactly the type of team you would have circled for this playoff. yep um we talk but We're going to talk a lot about the playoff ahead of the actual playoff, not so much on this podcast.
00:27:42
Speaker
It's a tough job. i don't I think they're and they're and they're in for it. But at the end of the day, right they they did well to get second here. um It was a tough group. They're a good team.
00:27:53
Speaker
This is where if the pots were different, they could have maybe had a better fortune, but this is what they are. You're 2-0 up in a game at home against Senegal. and they like like that That was it. Like it was the moment for DR Congo, right? like That's where you take this home and and you get it over the line. It's good that they bounce back and make the playoff, but as we transition to that playoff, and again, as you said, a it we'll preview the playoff in full when it comes on the line in November, but just the the nuts and bolts for you.
CAF Playoffs Preview
00:28:19
Speaker
In November, in Morocco, Two games in the semifinals and then one final and the winner goes to the Intercontinental playoff. So you win this playoff and you get to play another playoff. And that's how you make the World Cup.
00:28:29
Speaker
We get Nigeria, we'll play Gabon. And Cameroon, we'll play DR Congo. It's a good playoff field because of it. We've got two massive African powers with the second chance in Nigeria and Cameroon. And we've got two upstarts in Gabon and DR Congo who are right in that game.
00:28:45
Speaker
second-ish tier of African teams that can take advantage of a chance like this. I think they're two really great matchups. And if we were to get a Nigeria Cameroon final, which is by no means guaranteed, that would be a really, really fun match.
00:28:58
Speaker
Said it perfectly. I mean, it's very finely poised. Well, definitely. I mean, you've heard us talk about those teams a lot. And you know, listen to this podcast, the makeup of those teams. It's going to be great.
00:29:09
Speaker
It's going to be great, great stuff. And of course, just pointing out that, again, it's just for a spot in the Interconsul to playoff. But these the the winner of this four-team pool will be heavily favored um and certainly have the pressure on them to to get it done in a playoff like that.
00:29:26
Speaker
Yeah, I think when you look at the other teams that of who that intercontinental playoff is probably going to be, the African team, particularly now that we know who that African team is, should be favored to to make the World Cup from there. But again, it's a one-off match and weird things can happen then.
00:29:40
Speaker
All right, let's shift across to Asia a bit. We previewed this very weirdly formatted, ah potentially rigged. I won't say rigged. It wasn't rigged. But it felt like all all signs were pointing towards one path.
00:29:53
Speaker
And i admit, you'll never guess who qualified for the World Cup out of the Asian fourth round.
Saudi Arabia and Indonesia in Qualifiers
00:29:57
Speaker
It was Qatar and Saudi Arabia. They didn't take the most direct paths to qualification, but they got there in the end. And look, they took advantage of being bailed out by a format that was remarkably forgiving and also rewarded them with two home games after poor third round qualification cycles Who do you want to start with? committers ah Who do you want to start with, Qatar or Saudi Arabia?
00:30:18
Speaker
ah Let's start with Saudi Arabia because I think they were the slightly more impressive. Yes. I don't know. I think in terms of performances, they were. And it gives us it also gives us a chance to eulogize our friends from Indonesia who have been with us from the start of World Cup qualifying. A great run for Indonesia. They got a lot further than I think a lot of people would have expected.
00:30:40
Speaker
This came undone for them, I think, defensively in these two matches. So Saudi Arabia, 3-2 winners over Indonesia to open the group. Indonesia actually took the lead in this match. A handball in the box from Saudi Arabia. Dix scored the penalty. It was 1-0.
00:30:52
Speaker
But from there, look, we can say a lot about Saudi Arabia, but they have the tools to play good ball against teams that are worse than them. And that's what they did here. It felt like from the moment Indonesia took the lead early, Saudi Arabia just kind of said, all right, we're just going to play.
00:31:08
Speaker
And they played and they just kept coming and they just kept coming. And they won this match 3-2 in the end with a late goal for Indonesia, making things interesting. But they were deserved winners here. And they kind of showed everything that can kind of cause cautious optimism about Saudi Arabia, right?
00:31:25
Speaker
Yeah. Indonesia scored too early to go up one. they needed to do that later. It's a joke, but it's like something that's real um because they're not built to defend against a team like Saudi Arabia. Again, the if Saudi Arabia is playing you neutral physically or close, they're going to be very good with the ball and yeah hurt you. As you said perfectly, the way to stop them is to just be bigger than them in your defense. And then they're out of ideas because they they have no high level physical advantages.
00:31:56
Speaker
Again, they're perfectly like fast, quick players, but specifically in strength um and high level speed. And as you said, credit to them. And then also, again, credit to Herb Renard, who just, you know, trusted his his team's talents, played into them.
00:32:12
Speaker
they past Their passing patterns are very good. and and again, Indonesia is trying to play a similar style to them, slightly worse. right So this was a good matchup for them.
00:32:24
Speaker
Yeah, and look, Salam al-Dusari, Firas al-Burraqin, they are good players at this level against this type of opposition, and they did it for for Saudi Arabia. So that set up for Indonesia, a middle match against Iraq where they had to get something to stay alive, and Iraq...
00:32:39
Speaker
who were kind of what we've expected from Iraq, got it done with a late goal from Zidane Iqbal, the winner, ah a shot from distance, type of shot that you really hope isn't beating you if you're Indonesia.
00:32:50
Speaker
Indonesia put in a really good effort in these two games, but I think you saw the difference in level between them and the two teams that they were paired with. Yeah, they played really hard. They played really well for them.
00:33:02
Speaker
Like, there's nothing to be ashamed of. And at the end of the day, like, it wasn't really enough. um But, yeah, I think we've kind of we've kind of hit hit it really well on them.
00:33:15
Speaker
They were also ahead of schedule to even be here. I'm so impressed, super impressed with what they've done. And they've got a style that works. They just need to keep getting better players, get, but you know, more reps at this.
00:33:26
Speaker
And, again, ah Iraq is physically a tough team to play yeah in a way that even Saudi Arabia isn't. Indonesia were not, were kind of just, they they were drawing blank.
00:33:38
Speaker
And then it was like, you honestly, maybe you can credit for Iraq for and waiting so long to get that goal. They didn't have much. But at the same time, like Indonesia was begging to get done in by a shot from distance. Again, you'd hope it wasn't like that, but like, it it's, it's just fair, just fair from, for the way it went.
00:33:58
Speaker
Yeah, and then there were interesting moments in the back half, in the very back. So Iraq scored late, their their their winner in this match. But the way that the Saudi Arabia game had gone, there was heavy incentive for Iraq to score a second goal because that would have given them the benefit of the draw in the second game. And they weren't able to take advantage of that. And so that leads us to how this group wrapped up a bit.
00:34:17
Speaker
A nil-nil draw between Saudi Arabia and Iraq on the last day. That sent Saudi Arabia to the World Cup and it sent Iraq to the Asian playoff in November. Saudi Arabia were better. It's hard to say that they didn't deserve it. They didn't find the goal, but because they had found three against Indonesia, they didn't need to. And I don't think they were ever really, truly troubled by Iraq over these 90 minutes.
00:34:39
Speaker
Yeah, we we know Saudi Arabia has... Yeah, we know Saudi Arabia's defense isn't that good, but to their credit and to her Bernard's credit, in a game where they had the draw advantage...
00:34:53
Speaker
Iraq didn't look like they really put them in too much danger. Yeah. Right. It was almost like Bernard knew, Hey, if I try to defend, this might go poorly. We're better with the ball and attacking. Let's just do that and not give Iraq chances to hurt us back the other way. And it felt like that's what they were able to do here.
00:35:10
Speaker
Yeah. Just a, um, a very well done job and using defensive possession. and using your technical advantage across the pitch and using the home field.
00:35:22
Speaker
Again, ah unspectacular, but kind of what I expected from from Saudi Arabia.
Qatar's Qualification Journey
00:35:28
Speaker
And to your point also, yeah, Iraq needed that second goal. They needed the first goal earlier to have time for the second goal.
00:35:35
Speaker
That's really where it comes down to. And that's just the small margin, stupid, weird format thing that comes into when you're in this weird group of three, which we hardly ever see in world football for good reason, because it's a terrible format.
00:35:47
Speaker
We'll head to the other group where Qatar started with as uninspiring of a nearly do or die World Cup qualifier as I think we've seen this entire cycle. A nil-nil draw against Oman.
00:35:59
Speaker
I questioned what Yulon Lopetegui had been doing. Oman brought in Carlos Karras, which like, that's a great call for Oman. You know what we need? We just need to bring in Carlos Karras and just say, but work your magic, Carlos. And they very nearly did. They did against Qatar.
00:36:13
Speaker
This was as bad as we've seen. We've seen Qatar pretty bad this World Cup qualification cycle. This was as bad as we've seen Qatar. Listless, no ideas, aimless crosses that are never going to hurt anybody. They just didn't play, it felt like. And it was like, do they realize what's at stake here?
00:36:32
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, it's funny because in the aggregate of results, Qatar were better. But in terms of the performances and the order of the performances, Qatar did themselves no favors. They absolutely should not have walked out of this game 0-0.
00:36:47
Speaker
They should have went for it. They would have been in much better shape on the final day if they did. And the fact that they couldn't um kind of speaks to, i think, the lack of chemistry um between Lopetegui and his players in a way that Saudi Arabia don't have. Like you said, it was pretty listless. They didn't have those nice, intricate little moves.
00:37:09
Speaker
Again, the they have good players. You know the good players in Qatar. But for me, when they're functioning well, they're getting the ball in dangerous areas where they've got a mismatch, they're turned to the defense, they're in that little pockets of danger.
00:37:24
Speaker
If a team's defending them well, they get the ball and they have to get them in worse and worse areas. And then they just kind of accept it. You can't do that if you're Qatar. You need to... row the dangerous spaces.
00:37:37
Speaker
I will say though, you know, credit to not giving up a bad goal to Omar because that is the type of thing they were doing before this, this round. Yeah, and like it also is evidence as why every single match against a good team that Qatar have played since you know the last World Cup, it like it' this is why it goes the way that it does, is is these types of performances.
00:37:59
Speaker
Then Oman ummit went and played UAE, who knew that they had a golden opportunity in front of them. And Oman actually took the lead early on in this match off of an own goal from a UAE defender. They Carlos Kairos-ed as good as they could Carlos Kairos.
00:38:11
Speaker
And then in the last 15 minutes, it's almost just like, look, this is Oman, right? Like if you give Carlos Karras one step better players, I think he almost might just pull this off in this window, but they just didn't have enough to do it for 90 minutes. And UAE have attacking, like UAE have players that can hurt you in the attacking sense. And they just piled the pressure on and piled the pressure on and piled the coals on and piled the coals on.
00:38:36
Speaker
And eventually they broke down Oman and they scored once and then they scored twice and they won this game two to one. And that ended up being just about it for Oman. Yeah, and we've seen Carlos Karros do it with better players. And I think just to to highlight your point, it's the legs.
00:38:52
Speaker
And to play Karros' defensive style, you do need to run a lot to cover all the space and defense. And credit to UAE. As you said, the attacking players are there to recycle the ball over and over.
00:39:05
Speaker
We saw this a lot of times ah this this window, but all the time, but specifically in this window, right? like When it comes to crunch time, the way you... get the crucial goal is just locking a team in and and the best teams can do that and i'm not even saying uae is the best teams but when you when you can when you can turn it around in 20 30 minutes of flurry that's a sign that you are clearly the better team which so it so rarely happens in international soccer outside of the big tournaments where you get that gear needed but the gear was needed they brought it that's omar
00:39:41
Speaker
Yeah, and so then that set up a last match day clash between Qatar and UAE, where UAE had the advantage of the draw, and Qatar were actually in a scenario that had they lost by the right amount, if you will, they would have been going home, and Oman would have been advanced to the playoffs.
00:39:56
Speaker
And then am minute we saw a completely different Qatar team in this matchup. Night and day from what they showed against Oman. They came out, they played, they were active, they were incisive. They got the ball in those pockets of space that you talked about.
00:40:09
Speaker
I dont know, maybe it was because UAE aren't a team that can really challenge you physically. That probably had a lot to do with it, but it just looked like they were motivated. And sometimes something that simple can make all the difference. They were the better side than UAE for the majority of this match. They got a two set piece goals, a free header for the one-nil goal. Pedro Miguel took advantage of of some bad goalkeeping from Khalid Aissa, who was really good in the first game and not so great on the second goal here.
00:40:33
Speaker
And then they hung on in kind of unconvincing fashion down the stretch. Yeah, this is with the Qatar's defense we expected to see from them. They're up to lot of stoppage time. And UAE, who had been... We saw 15 up on a stoppage time. And it wasn't like... There are 15 minutes... There are big stoppage time numbers that I'm like, oh, come on.
00:40:54
Speaker
I felt like the 15 minutes was justified here. Because Qatar took the lead and just stopped playing. Yeah, 100%. And Qatar were pinned back.
00:41:05
Speaker
They were could not get out of their box. And in the last five, they did just enough anti-football. And UAE had one good shot from 20 yards.
00:41:18
Speaker
Hit well, hard to the corner, but not quite enough to corner. And that was it. And so I think that's like the best chance they got to tie the game. says They weren't that close. but they had Qatar on the ropes. Yeah. and Okay.
00:41:32
Speaker
Let me just, sorry. I just got to get this off my chin. If you're the type of official who's going to put up a 15 on the board, you cannot blow the final whistle on 15. Yeah. yeah You've got to cancel like three or four minutes within that 15.
00:41:46
Speaker
like Give me the, give me the two more. Like, come on. didn't Yeah. Yeah. Qatar played well enough that you can't really begrudge them too much, but they robbed us of three or four more minutes of absolute chaos at the end of this match.
00:41:57
Speaker
That's my point. Sorry. Yeah. No, I mean, Qatar got it done. They played much better than they did in the first game. The crowd was also much livelier. i mean, that it was was fine for both games, but Qatar were really into it.
00:42:08
Speaker
Again, I think Keros Ball, he he he's very good on his scouting reports and taking away star players. yeah UAE are fine defensively, but but yeah not at that level.
00:42:20
Speaker
And that's where you just saw Qatar like really walk the ball into the spots they wanted to, as you said. it gets set pieces and Qatar, it's so hard to compliment them.
00:42:33
Speaker
And it's not because of the bias. Like... Oh, listen, you listen to this podcast for now. You know, Austin and I do not enjoy watching Qatar, but this is a team that's won an Asian tournament.
00:42:44
Speaker
Sure. They are very solid. They're just a solid international team. They do the the fundamental things well enough. And at the end of the day, like, it's just enough to be a team at this stage.
00:42:58
Speaker
And that's what it comes down to. Like, UAE or Oman were not good enough to beat the bar. Qatar is the bar. Yeah, yeah. And that's why they're going to go to the World Cup and they're going be in pot three and they're going get drawn and they're going to score one goal in three games and they're going go home because like that's what Qatar do. like That is their level. they There are teams that can play above their level. There are teams that can play below their level. As a general rule, Qatar play at their level.
00:43:23
Speaker
And they're going to the World Cup because of it, because 48 teams are going. like This is the downside of World Cup expansion. like I'm a big proponent of World Cup expansion. I love seeing Cape Verde go to the tournament. The downside is that we let a team like Qatar kind of just fall into making the World Cup when they probably shouldn't be there. We were begging for a fun a more fun team from our point of view from Asia to take this spot.
00:43:45
Speaker
And we saw... in In this, what it came down to was UAE or Oman were not those teams. They just weren't. And like Indonesia did like the fun underdog stories that didn't have the level to to beat out these teams. And so, as we said before, that sends Qatar and Saudi Arabia to the World Cup.
CONCACAF Qualifiers Drama
00:44:01
Speaker
It puts Iraq and UAE in an Asian playoff in November. And again, that winner will then go to the Intercontinental Playoff. We'll preview that on the November preview show. Let's ship across the ocean a bit to CONCACAF.
00:44:12
Speaker
And ah let me just ask you the the big overarching question. Does anybody want to make the World Cup from CONCACAF? mean, they all want to make the World Cup. Can they put in the performance necessary to do it consistently?
00:44:25
Speaker
The answer is no. This has been so chaotic. And in even in a more chaotic sense than CAF, which has like, you know, a massive, massive region different home fields, different talent variants, different soccer variants, but somehow CONCACAF has outdone all of that with its own blend of chaos.
00:44:47
Speaker
in It's the field, it's the atmosphere, it's the late nights, it's these games exist in a haze where the best teams go behind, they they they lose they lose their minds. like I mean that in a matter-of-fact way, they lose their minds, and the
00:45:06
Speaker
Like, there's just no certainty. The answer is no. It's been that it's been that crazy. It's been really, really fun because, i like, as a general rule, you turn on these matches and you just don't know what's going to happen. Like, okay, Bermuda are going to lose.
00:45:19
Speaker
All right, that's fine. Nicaragua are not very good. But other than that, everything that we've seen in CONCACAF has really been fascinating, and entertaining, and it sets up a super, super intriguing November window that I'm going to be very excited to preview. But let's recap what happened in October.
00:45:33
Speaker
Let's go alphabetically. Let's start in Group A. And mean this was the group of the late equalizers because on the first match day, Virgil Mizian got a late equalizer for Suriname at home against Guatemala after Darwin Lohm had opened the scoring for Guatemala.
00:45:46
Speaker
Meanwhile, Jose Fajardo won it for Panama against El Salvador. And then on the second match day, Panama got the late equalizer against Suriname, 1-1 with a late goal from Ismael Diaz, while Guatemala beat El Salvador away.
00:45:59
Speaker
This group is complete chaos. Where do you want to start? I think the biggest story is Panama. It has to be. they're the They were the favorites coming in. Yep. and they saved themselves from like really being in bad position.
00:46:12
Speaker
Now it's kind of a set up between them and Suriname to serve. But Guatemala's there. like They just put off the big test, right? Like, yeah, they did just enough.
00:46:24
Speaker
Prove it time. And they're like, we'll do that in November. Yes, but that in itself speaks to where they're at, so in that they are no they are definitely not head and shoulders above Suriname and Guatemala, which don't know if we thought were head and shoulders, but we thought they would be better.
00:46:40
Speaker
They haven't been. And I think... on the converse of that Suriname have been really really good I think Guatemala what we thought but Suriname have been good they've been better than we thought and we'll see how the last two games go because we could look at this and go oh Suriname was two minutes away or however like five minutes away from seeing out a home or an away win that would have really upended this they played so well or it could be you know what the draw didn't kill them they
00:47:12
Speaker
over two games, took care of Panama, and then got it done when it counted. But so it's it's all right there. You can read it depending on your tea leaves. Yeah, and so it's ah it's fascinating the point that you make because the one angle is, oh man, they were two minutes away, you know, however many minutes away from beating Panama on the road. What a result that could have been.
00:47:30
Speaker
They were also however many minutes away from losing at home against Guatemala on the first match. Right. Right. It's like, it's all there. And like, you can look at it positively or negatively at the end of the day, the situation is what it is.
00:47:41
Speaker
And it's all of the, it's three of these teams. Suriname on six, Panama on six, Guatemala on five, El Salvador hanging behind on three. I don't think there's much hope for El Salvador, mainly because I don't think they're, I don't think they're very good and you can't lose that El Salvador Guatemala game last night. I'm it.
00:47:57
Speaker
It was, all right, you have to win to put the pressure on Panama and Suriname heading into the last match day. It was a no-draw type game, and El Salvador went and lost it pretty convincingly.
00:48:09
Speaker
Yeah, you framed it very well. This was their biggest chance. It was at home. The atmosphere was great. The field was tough for Guatemala. It was an ugly game. And at the end of the day, you know,
00:48:22
Speaker
it's It's never one-sided in CONCACAF because you can just kind of run it up and down the field. It kind of comes down to who can like get the better cross or the better runner into goal.
00:48:36
Speaker
Guatemala, I think, we're were good money for the one zero win. El Salvador, Guatemala are not great, but they've got ah about three good players in El Salvador.
00:48:47
Speaker
And I'm saying this at the level, appropriate level, they have zero. And that's what it was. Yeah, and so that, I think, leaves Guatemala looking at this like, hey, we have two home games in November. If we win those two home games, we're probably going to be in a good spot.
00:49:01
Speaker
That's super interesting. The Panama, it felt like they felt the pressure, obviously. Suriname were really good in this match, like you said. The counterattacking move that they put together for that first goal and the opportunities that they created on the counter, there were other chances. This could have been more for Suriname that they weren't able to take advantage of.
00:49:20
Speaker
It really impressive. Yeah, I think what we saw is that, and what we've said about Surname is they can play, and but the their their weakness is that the depth and the legs, because they play such a running-heavy style, dry up.
00:49:34
Speaker
And they... they they They would have been lucky to escape with the win because for the last 30 minutes, Panama battered them and eventually realized, hey, they're not going to hurt us on the counter. They're out of legs. Let's get our let's get our midfielders up. Let's get a center back up.
00:49:54
Speaker
Let's put three, four guys in the box. And that's what got them the equalizer. I think the thing for Panama is you're saying, um yes, it's the mentals. I think John Arnold had talked about that on our preview podcast. He's definitely highlighted the pressure that's very real for them.
00:50:09
Speaker
And now it's to the point where they get in these games and it's frustrating that they can't break down the block um until it's too late. We're like the game state is begging you to break down the block. And like, you're almost going to just because they're giving you all that space.
00:50:28
Speaker
but they're, They're not looking like the Panama we saw at the Gold Cup or the Panama in the League. They're like a Panama team that is weighed down by the expectations, right? Like you can see it. And they're doing enough to put that all off. And they haven't completely crumbled. And everything is still right in front of if they get over the line, none of it really matters.
00:50:46
Speaker
But they certainly are looking like a team that is feeling the pressure of this moment of they're not chasing a giant in the U.S. s or Mexico where the entirety of the attention is focused on the team on the other side. And you can just play your game and impress.
00:50:59
Speaker
The entirety of the tension in this case is now focused on them. But I thought they were good down the stretch. And like you said, they got to the point where they realized every time Surinam clear the ball, we can be right back where we started in three passes.
00:51:10
Speaker
And that's how the last 15 minutes of this game went. And they eventually got to the point where they weren't quite finishing. They just put in balls so good that they couldn't not. fit Like the goal that is scored by Ismael Diaz, he couldn't have not scored it.
00:51:23
Speaker
right? It bounced off of him. it just hits him and goes in. And it's like, all right, I'm just going to hit a cross that's so good that I don't, it doesn't matter what you do. It's going in the back of the net and that's what they did. And that's how they scratched the point from this game.
00:51:35
Speaker
Yeah. Well put. And I think yeah this is going to be great in November. As you said, Guatemala have the two home matches, so they're definitely not out of it. um We'll, we'll, we'll cover it more than I think what this is very finely poised and all of these teams have, know,
00:51:52
Speaker
either optimistic or shooting them or feel like they've shot this on the foot, however you want to read it. It's very dicey. There are points on the table for all of these teams, and there are also points that maybe shouldn't have been won for all these. It's all just right there. It's going to be a great window in November. I'm i'm really looking forward to it.
00:52:06
Speaker
Let's shift to Group B, Amit, where let's talk about the two sides of Curacao because we have the good Curacao. with a huge 2-0 home win over Jamaica. They scored really good goals. They were better than the team that was favored in this group, and they looked like the best team in this group in that performance against Jamaica on that night.
00:52:24
Speaker
Yeah, I love the caveats because that's the truth of it. Like, is Curacao better than Jamaica? I don't know, but they were. it's Exactly. I don't know.
00:52:36
Speaker
It's such a fascinating question because they're two completely different teams, Jamaica has some high end talent. Jamaica does a lot of institutional things that are tough. Curacao have play a really different style. They're very good at that style. Is it a style that translates in this game? It looked like they were like liquid football and like Jamaica was chasing shadows and it was like, wow, the hour, like how are these guys the lower seated team?
00:53:02
Speaker
and then And then the other side of Curacao is what we saw in their second match, which is when they were pegged back 1-1 by Trinidad and Tobago, in which they scored early. They looked to be on route to putting themselves in the best position of this group.
00:53:17
Speaker
And they just kind of got outplayed down the stretch by Trinidad and Tobago. And then they got bit by a really bad midfield turnover that went the other way for a good finish for for for Spicer, for Trinidad and Tobago, who I thought was really, really good in this match on the left side.
00:53:30
Speaker
And it's like, oh, it was right there. Two more, like, they win this match, they're in really good shape, and they're just kind of right back where they started, where now they're going to have to go do it again against Jamaica in November. I think it's the risks of playing the style they do, where they are trying to to build through the middle, and they are trying to use the ball, and Trinidad and Tobago...
00:53:50
Speaker
I don't think they're very good, but they play direct football and they are good athletes for the level again, for the level, Levi Garcia in this match against like he was a problem. And Kurosawa just did not have an answer for him. and And like I mentioned Spicer already on the left, like he was also dangerous.
00:54:06
Speaker
And those two guys did enough here to get the result. Yeah. They're just always in the back of your mind. Like, Hey, we, we've got to, we can't be isolated in space against those two. And they,
00:54:17
Speaker
they set them They gave Trinidad and Tobago exactly what they couldn't give them. yeah I think it speaks to, yeah as you said, the two sides of them. What side are they? yeah i don't know like if they are better than Jamaica or not. i want to believe we're going to see in this last match day, as you kind of have alluded to, it feels like that's what it comes down to, right?
00:54:37
Speaker
Yeah, so Jamaica took care of business. After losing to Curacao, took care of business against Bermuda. Everybody's beating Bermuda. That's kind of how this is going to go. It was funny last night. I was talking with with John Arnold. During these matches, we were were kind of trading texts back and forth. John was was on the ground in in Panama, and he had covered the match in Suriname.
00:54:55
Speaker
And I said, ah, you know what, John? I feel like there's going to be a moment for Bermuda in this cycle. They're going to take something from somebody in this cycle. And right when I said that to him, Jamaica just put three past him in like six minutes. it was like, ah.
00:55:05
Speaker
It's not going to be Jamaica. But so this builds up to November. And again, we'll preview all this on the November preview show. Jamaica and Curacao play on the last match day. But I don't think we can discount Trinidad and Tobago quite yet because they'll have Bermuda on the last match day where there could be points to get to be won there for them.
00:55:20
Speaker
They can take something from Jamaica. They can put themselves in the conversation. Let's see what happens. Group C, Amit. almost kind of went as you would have expected. There was one big game in this group, and we'll get to that in a second. Let's start with Haiti, who took care of Nicaragua 3-0.
00:55:35
Speaker
This was as good as we have seen Haiti, maybe outside of that weird Costa Rica performance where they got a point from. They beat a team that they were significantly better than, and they beat them easily. This had been coming for a long time for Haiti, who have put in a lot of good performances and haven't had the result to show for it. This was the result. This is what it looks like when Haiti could dominate a game.
00:55:56
Speaker
I believe they're better than Nicaragua. Yeah, no question. They, they showed it, they finished, they were just, you know, first to the ball everywhere. Their midfield was better. And then, you know, things look good when you score.
00:56:09
Speaker
like Goals change games. And when you do it early, it gives you chances to score more goals. Right. Also on the first match day, Honduras and Costa Rica drew a nil nil. And a lot of times, obviously, so many games happen in these windows. We watch a lot of it live. We're talking back and forth.
00:56:25
Speaker
And then when we go to prepare for the podcast, you and I will will look back on the highlights to just kind of like, OK, you know what exactly happened in that game? So I did that in this case. And I pulled up the Honduras-Costa Rica highlights, and the official highlights start in the 35th minute with a yellow card in the midfield.
00:56:38
Speaker
And that can tell you all you needed to know about this one. Yeah. Watching this game, nothing happened. And that's a credit to Honduras and a slight against Costa Rica. um It was just, it was mucky. It was mucky conca-calf ball.
00:56:52
Speaker
Costa Rica, honestly, were chasing Honduras. A team that they are worse than, like, we think, a team that they are worse than, Honduras had more energy on the night.
00:57:02
Speaker
And we're super just super up for it. And I think, honestly, if you're Costa Rica, you're kind of just like, we can't quite meet this level. So we're just goingnna we're just going to take our wounds and figure it out later.
00:57:14
Speaker
And this um is a good a really good result for Honduras when taken in the context of what they then went and did on the second match day where they scored three goals in the first half and beat Haiti 3-0. And for as good as Haiti was against Nicaragua, they were equally on the other side of the equation in this match against Honduras.
00:57:32
Speaker
This was as good as we have seen Honduras in a very, very long time, certainly for as much as we've seen in this qualification cycle. I know they had that Gold Cup run. They didn't look this good at any point in that Gold Cup run, personally, for me.
00:57:44
Speaker
this is shocking i mean this is shocking. I mean, I think Hayden and Duras are close, yeah but after watching, I'm very impressed with Honduras. And, okay, the again, the goals are the goals. It changes the game. We said that.
00:57:58
Speaker
Honduras were better. They said that. The talent is not quite, and I think i think we, me, have to just i have to change my evaluation of Honduras. Like,
00:58:11
Speaker
And sometimes the results and the way the first windows in three games, four games shakes out is they're playing with confidence. That Costa Rica game, they were all over them. Again, 0-0.
00:58:24
Speaker
But as you said, a good result. And this game against Haiti, they were they were cruising. like I mean, tell me, like, we're... where haiti like did Did Haiti just get super like snowball bad in a bad way in this, or was the Honduras just really that good? like It's just goals change games. It's what you said, right?
00:58:43
Speaker
You score early, you open up opportunities, you score again, and they were as clinical as as as they've been throughout this qualification cycle. And I think it's a really good point that you brought up there, Amit. And this is something that you and I... we really highlighted when we talked with John Arnold, when we previewed CONCAP, the short window that all of this do or die cycle is taking place it means momentum can absolutely matter. And it kind of feels like Honduras are getting that momentum behind them.
00:59:07
Speaker
The other matchup in this group was a 4-1 win for Costa Rica over Nicaragua. Costa Rica needed it. Costa Rica got it. I'm still not super convinced by them. And the way that the table shakes out here, i mean, Honduras have a really, really good chance to worst case scenario, play Costa Rica on the last day, needing only a draw to go to the World Cup.
00:59:28
Speaker
Best case scenario, Honduras beat Nicaragua. Costa Rica don't beat Haiti. Honduras are punching their World Cup ticket with a match to spare. They don't even have to worry about that Costa Rica match. It is all right in front of Reynaldo Rueta's men.
00:59:40
Speaker
Yeah, this is a great opportunity. Again, just going to be a super fun CONCAP window. If you're Honduras, you're hoping the window is next week. You want to keep yeah you want to keep the good vibes rolling.
00:59:51
Speaker
i think um Yeah, I mean, you're going to get Costa Rica's best punch. i I think Haiti are in it. Haiti certainly. The issue is Costa Rica have to get to the point where their best punch matters, right? Yeah, they could slip off, but.
01:00:05
Speaker
That's the thing. they have to They have to do it twice, right? They have to beat Haiti in the first game. Away match played. We've talked about the Haiti situation. Played in Curacao. Going to be a weird atmosphere. Costa Rica have to go and win that. And then they're going to have to go and most likely beat Honduras again.
01:00:18
Speaker
it's The margin of error is gone for Costa Rica. And Honduras are sitting really pretty. They are. It's going to be, um I wish I could, I wish I could talk to all the Costa Rica players and like, play, like I can't talk to the Costa Rica.
01:00:35
Speaker
I wish I could know like what mentally they're thinking. ah fla If they're like, oh, we're fine. Or if they're like sweating, like bullets, like we've got to do a bit of a tight wire escape act.
01:00:46
Speaker
Cause they do. But sometimes like in Africa, the best teams got to the final window and didn't matter how bad they were. And they just put together two performances. Costa Rica are good enough to do that.
01:00:58
Speaker
um It's certainly going I think the best thing for them will be an early goal in Curacao and just kind of not play, not be emotionally drained or you're out from that game.
01:01:10
Speaker
You can get to that last game kind of intact and feeling a little confident. Honduras is the one sweating, but right now, yes, Costa Rica is the one sweating. It's fat. It's fascinating.
01:01:20
Speaker
And also, let's not completely discount that Honduras could slip up against Nicaragua because those are the type of things that have happened throughout this entire CONCACAF cycle where there's been banana peels for everybody to deal with. Nicaragua took points off of Costa Rica, obviously, it should be stated. All right, we'll preview that CONCACAF action when we preview the November show.
UEFA Qualifiers Overview
01:01:38
Speaker
ah We're already an hour into the show, Amit, so let's go quick version on UEFA because to be quite frank with you, this was a UEFA window that just screams, give me the UEFA lightning round, right?
01:01:49
Speaker
um I struggled to find a result throughout the entirety of this UEFA window that was genuinely surprised. There are a couple that we'll get to in a minute, but as far as things that actually mattered towards making the World Cup, nothing really surprised me here.
01:02:06
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, i you're going to name the ones. going agree with you on the one the games that were shocking. um but like Let's go into it, and then i'll get I'll throw in some of my takes. But I think we're mostly in agreement here what was kind of uninspiring.
01:02:23
Speaker
um i do want to say just, oh, well Sweden, you have second on the list. but Yeah. Sweden didn't do themselves any favors. No. So the big, let's start with the big picture overarching look at things in UEFA is we have 12 groups.
01:02:37
Speaker
The 12 winners of the 12 groups are going to the world cup. There were 12 seated teams in those 12 groups. We're going to go into the last match day where I feel very confident about nine of those nine or 10 of those 12 group winner, those seated teams making the world cup.
01:02:51
Speaker
I feel 0% confident about Italy making it, but Norway have kind of just replaced them. And then we've got this kind of interesting situation in maybe a Denmark, Scotland group where you're like almost talking yourself into things.
01:03:04
Speaker
That's just the big picture it. think there's going to be really good battle for playoff spots. And then when we get to those playoffs in March, I think those playoffs are going to be really good. But the fact of the matter is a bit, the 10 to 12 best teams in Europe are significantly better than the next 10 to 12 best teams. And that's just really been borne out in this qualification cycle where even if they drop points once or twice, it's just not enough to actually be in danger.
01:03:27
Speaker
Well, yeah, outside of Italy, as you said, the the next biggest alarm we had was Germany and Slovakia. And we both said on the preview pod, OK, Slovakia, if you're real, you've got to beat Northern Ireland.
01:03:40
Speaker
And that was maybe not a surprise, but certainly, i think, a very momentous result in kind of getting Germany back on track. Yeah, so let's start there. Germany won twice. Slovakia lost 2-0 to Northern Ireland. Just like that, Germany are back in control of this group.
01:03:55
Speaker
They're probably looking at a scenario where Slovakia could challenge them on the last match day because Slovakia will will play Luxembourg while Germany play Northern Ireland. But look, if Germany have to draw against Slovakia to make the World Cup on the last match day, like...
01:04:08
Speaker
we know how that's probably going to go, right? That's how this is looking at. I think the the the second team that we had our eye on, and this maybe isn't as concerning for making the World Cup, but Sweden, good Lord.
01:04:19
Speaker
They are as bad as anybody has been throughout this World Cup qualification cycle. They lost twice here in this window. They were hammered in a 2-0 loss to Switzerland, which we had kind of built up as the last chance for somebody to really challenge Switzerland.
01:04:32
Speaker
And then admit they followed up that loss against Switzerland with a whole loss against Kosovo. They lost to Kosimo twice in this World Cup qualification cycle. That is patently insane. But, Amit, Sweden have been so bad for so long that they fell all the way down to Nations League C in UEFA, and they won their Nations League C group against really bad teams and have a Nations League bailout. So we're going to see Sweden most likely, almost assuredly, in the UEFA playoffs.
01:04:59
Speaker
The November window for them is going to be a get-right chance. There's rumors that Graham Potter could be joining as manager. Things are not good for Sweden, and they're going to have one chance to get it right in March. Yeah, it's kind of unfair for Hata.
01:05:12
Speaker
some of the other teams but i guess that's the point of nations league right um so i was really disappointed and the team is a lot worse i also grant potter is very uninspiring but uh look you just you just gotta to get through a playoff against the team like italy perhaps so yeah certainly none of the teams in the playoff are going to be infallible Yeah, we'll get to that in in March, but it just goes we do have to emphasize how bad they have been. One point from four, they lost, again, to Kosovo twice, and Kosovo are looking like they're going to be going to the playoff, which would be a remarkable result for one of the smaller teams in Europe.
01:05:50
Speaker
ah We talked about Denmark-Scotland. It looks like they're on a collision course in that group. Scotland beat Greece 3-1. Greece are now officially eliminated. Denmark took care of business here. Let's see what happens. we We'll preview that in November. I still think you're probably backing Denmark, but I'm at least willing to, like,
01:06:05
Speaker
almost question it yeah scotland have earned uh the right to get a shake in a game a fair shake in a game against denmark a game they can win will they be favored no but um i think scotland are very good at playing a tough brand of of football or soccer you know they they they put the ball in the mixer they have good players they have good crossers they're organized I mean, like, are they better up and down the field than Denmark? No, but it's going to be a tough game. They're going to make you work for it.
01:06:36
Speaker
Certainly they could get a bounce and win that. Yeah, so very quickly, and and we'll preview this all in November because, again, this is pretty much the one spot of drama in UEFA. Scotland will have to go to Greece and Denmark will – or excuse me, Scotland – yes, Scotland go to Greece and Denmark will play Belarus. If they can both win those matches, Denmark have to go to Scotland on the last match night. That would be a great atmosphere.
01:06:59
Speaker
With the way the goal differential is, Scotland will probably have to win that match, but you maybe wouldn't put it past them. So let's see. We mentioned this in the open. England have qualified for the World Cup. Great. We didn't watch any of it.
01:07:09
Speaker
None of it was surprising. They've taken care of business really easily. That's what England do. We will see them in the World Cup quarterfinals, and that's when we'll start worrying, right? Yeah, yeah. we'll see here We'll see what what the vibes are for England next summer.
01:07:26
Speaker
But yeah, we don't need to say much more right now. And they've been that good. Belgium, a bit, were unimpressive in a nil-nil draw with North Macedonia. North Macedonia really hung on for the point. They were much more impressive in a 4-2 win over Wales.
01:07:38
Speaker
And to kind of illustrate the entirety of the point that I've been making about worse teams failing to take advantage of better teams maybe slipping up, North Macedonia followed up that really, really good 0-0 draw with Belgium with a really, really bad 1-1 draw at home against Kazakhstan.
01:07:53
Speaker
You just can't do that. Belgium now simply have to beat Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein to make the World Cup. You'd back them to do that. I haven't been super impressed with them. I don't think I'm going to be buying them going to the World Cup, but they've done just enough in this group. Yeah, more to say on Belgium at a later date. I think in general, they may have lost a tear on them kind of being a a good chance team to be a quarterfinalist to now it's going to be an uphill battle for them to be a quarterfinalist. The Golden Generation is no longer there.
01:08:19
Speaker
It's kind of an Italy-level or worse squad of rotational-level talent. we'll We'll check in more later. Austria, who are kind of the weakest of those 12-seeded teams, lost against Romania with a late goal from Gita for Romania, winning that match, crucially for the Romanians.
01:08:37
Speaker
But Austria are still in good shape. They they hammered San Marino in their other match. they Bosnia and Romania will play in the next window. That's big. Austria will play Bosnia to close it out. I'm not backing Bosnia or Romania to beat out Austria by enough down the stretch. I'm not super convinced by Austria.
01:08:54
Speaker
They're an intriguing little project. They have their slip ups, but they were got a very, very favorable draw and they're taking advantage of it, even with the slip up here against Romania. Yeah, that's the best way to put it. And I think, again, we'll preview November. The fight for second in this group and many others will be good.
01:09:10
Speaker
Bosnia-Romania is a great little race. And maybe if Bosnia win comfortably, there could be some drama in the last day. But I think Austria be OK. And then i should also mention Portugal, who were pegged back by Hungary in a match that didn't actually matter. And they also hammered, I believe it was, no, it was Hungary where Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice and they still drew the match late on.
01:09:31
Speaker
Roberto Martinez always delivers. Portugal are going to make the World Cup. The rest of that group is bad. Ireland's had a big win against Armenia. We'll focus on all of that because of these, it's these fights per second in the playoffs. And I do want to close out our European section by talking about the results that legitimately surprised me.
01:09:46
Speaker
And we have to go admit to the North sea and the Faroe Islands who picked up two home wins, this window, including a four nil route of Montenegro and then a two, one win over the Czech Republic. It's three wins in a row in the first, for the first time in their history, they'd beaten Gibraltar in that September window.
01:10:03
Speaker
I admit they have to beat Croatia away in November to have any chance. They're not going to have any chance, but it's pretty fun. that The Faroe Islands are putting up 12 points in a World Cup qualification cycle. And this was a fun little window where they brought these teams to this rocky outcropping in this turf field and just smashed them in the rain.
01:10:19
Speaker
Cool. Yeah, I mean, it's not easy to punk Czech Republic and Montenegro, and they did. I mean, you you nailed it. this yeah Enjoy. Everyone in the Faroe Islands gets to celebrate for a whole month and more. that i mean, that's truly crazy.
01:10:35
Speaker
It's hard to do. Again, the situation for them is is bleak because they not only have to beat Croatia away, they also need Gibraltar to give them a helping hand against the Czech Republic and Croatia, which just isn't going to happen. But cool. This is a fun story.
01:10:48
Speaker
All right. That's it for us on on Europe. I think we've done that.
Upcoming November Qualifiers
01:10:51
Speaker
Let's look ahead quickly here, admit to November and what we can expect. We talked about it. We've got the African playoff. We've got the Asian playoff. We've got a dramatic, dramatic conclusion to the CONCACA qualifying.
01:11:01
Speaker
And we've got the wrap-up in Europe for where there will be playoff spots on the line. And I think that's going to be where most of the drama is. We've got a really good November window coming up. And it's coming up right around the corner in just about a month's time. We'll be getting together to preview the November window.
01:11:14
Speaker
It's happening fast. I mean, this one was good, but that's where, like, all the spots get finalized. Or a lot of the spots get finalized. um High stakes. Every game is going to be high stakes.
01:11:27
Speaker
And you know what we get to do in November a bit as I'm rubbing my hands eagerly? We get to do some some draw simulations. It's pot time. We get to talk about World Cup pots. I love pot season.
01:11:38
Speaker
So we'll ah we'll we'll come back to that in November. We'll talk about how that's breaking down. For our patron subscribers, if you go to the World Cup qualification master spreadsheet that you have access to, there's actually a tab on there that I'm calling the Pot Sandbox.
01:11:52
Speaker
which is where I'm playing around with what those World Cup pots will look like. Very, very intriguing. Amit and I will come back. We'll talk about that in the November preview pods. We'll touch base on all of that. That's it for us today. Again, I mentioned the Patreon subscription.
01:12:05
Speaker
For $3 a month, you get access to subscriber-only shows and content, like the African qualification scenarios that I put out on Sunday for all of our lovely Patreon subscribers. And you get access to that World Cup qualification master spreadsheet.
01:12:19
Speaker
which will super come in handy in November when there's a lot of games coming your way and you'll be trying to figure out what to watch, when, and where. Again, that's $3 a month. Patreon.com slash WCAD for that.
01:12:31
Speaker
All that's left for us to say is thank you so much for the time. Thank you for making us part of your soccer podcasting routine. We will be back in November for the big preview and we will talk to you guys then.
01:12:41
Speaker
Take care.