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WCAD 3-39: A November to Remember
79 Plays1 month ago
Austin and Amit get together for a full preview of a high-stakes set of World Cup Qualifiers. First, the guys try to make sense of CONCACAF, where big favorites Panama & Costa Rica face pressure from upstarts like Suriname, Honduras, and Guatemala. In UEFA, drama looks to center around a big Denmark-Scotland matchup while the jostling for the final playoff spots should provide plenty of drama. The show closes out with a look at the playoffs in Africa and Asia, where tickets to the ICP Last Chance Saloon hang in the balance.
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Transcript
Introduction and Podcast Commitment
00:00:01
Speaker
It has all built up to this. We're in the penultimate international window before the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is the World Cup After Dark Podcast.
00:00:12
Speaker
My name is Austin Miller. His name is Amit Malik, and he is so committed to the show and to World Cup qualifying. but Do I have my information right here, Amit? You planned your vacation around being not on vacation for World Cup qualifiers?
00:00:26
Speaker
that's one way to put it, Austin. I don't think it's an incorrect reading of my planning of things. Um, so yeah, no, this is, this is the weekend of all weekends. Uh, we're not going to talk about and another thing I have this next weekend, but I'm as locked as you can be for these spots.
00:00:41
Speaker
It's exactly what you have to do, right? Like, this was stuff that goes on the calendar a long time ago. You knew that the drama would all be here in November, and and that's what
Unexpected Benefits of Podcasting
00:00:49
Speaker
we're here for. On today's show, we're going to preview the November window that's not as massive as you might think it is, which will help for following all of the drama.
00:00:58
Speaker
So let's get right into it. a bit They may have told you at some point that doing this podcast was was useless, that you wouldn't take any long-term information in life. And I will have you know that the other day, i got a 99% on a Sparkle World Flags quiz because of the work that we do for this podcast. So who's the real winner here?
00:01:17
Speaker
There are a lot of soft and hard skills from following international soccer that if you listen this podcast, you probably have yourself, and they're probably very valuable to you. So keep it going. I identified the flags by, all right, what happened to their World Cup qualification campaign? Oh, they were out in the group. All those Asian teams, Bhutan. Oh, yeah, i remember. They lost long time ago.
00:01:35
Speaker
Anyway, we are done with those teams of the world, and it's time to get to the heavy hitters. It's time to get to World Cup qualifying.
World Cup Qualifying Overview
00:01:41
Speaker
28 tickets have already been punched to the final tournament of the 48 that will be handed out. We will get another 14 that will be clinched by the end of CONCACAF After Dark action on Tuesday night.
00:01:51
Speaker
And then we will have six more that will be clinched in March, which will come down to 22 teams that will be left alive. I mean, we started with 209 teams with apologies to Russia and Eritrea, who did not take qualification of the 211 FIFA Confederations.
00:02:08
Speaker
Those will have been trimmed down to 66 teams. By the time Tuesday is done. And again, those final six spots contested by just 22 teams next March. Here's how it breaks down this window. In UEFA, we have one spot clinched that was England that they did that in October.
00:02:22
Speaker
That means there are 11 to play for, plus the 16 playoff spots, which will feed into four more World Cup qualifying tickets. In Cacacaf, we have 10 teams that left alive for three spots and two spots in the Intercontinental Playoff.
00:02:35
Speaker
In Asia, we'll have a two-team playoff for one intercontinental spot. In CAF, we will have a four-team playoff for one intercontinental playoff spot. There is not a lot left on the agenda here, admit. It's all boiled down to this.
00:02:49
Speaker
And this is this is crunch time as you started off with, Austin. Direct spots on the line, some really, really big names, really big games. And the sussing out the playoffs is going to be a little confusing, but that's why we're here.
00:03:02
Speaker
That's why we're here. So but's let's get into this all this goodness. Let's start in CONCACAF where I think we have the highest potential of pure under-alternated chaos.
00:03:13
Speaker
On Tuesday night, admit we will have six CONCACAF matches kicking off at exactly the same time, which is going to be glorious, is going to be tough to follow, it's going to be insane, it's going to be great. And in CONCACAF, I think we have as wide open as it can get for these three World Cup qualifying spots. Let's start with the easiest of the three groups, and I think that's in Group B, which looks to have been the most straightforward group up until now.
Group B: Jamaica vs Curacao
00:03:35
Speaker
On paper, this should come down to a one-up match between Jamaica and Curacao on Tuesday in Kingston. Jamaica should have the advantage of a draw in that match, and both teams should be in good shape to at least make the Intercontinental playoff.
00:03:51
Speaker
I mean, I use the word should there, and that should relies on what happens on Thursday night when Jamaica go to Port of Spain to play Trinidad and Tobago. If Jamaica draw in that game, it could give Curacao the advantage of a draw in that match on Tuesday, while a loss would give Trinidad and Tobago an outside chance at making the playoff on the final night.
00:04:09
Speaker
Bermuda also in this group, they will play Curacao and Trinidad and Tobago. We expect them to lose both of those games. Let's start with Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica on Thursday in Port of Spain. Amit, Jamaica comfortable 2-0 winners when these two teams played in September.
00:04:22
Speaker
They have yet to concede a goal in this group to anybody that's not Curacao. Jordan and Tobago are in a must-win situation. If they don't win, they are all but cooked because they would be relying on Bermuda to help them out against Curacao.
00:04:33
Speaker
This should be a comfortable-ish win for Jamaica. It should be, but I think, and I know you've set it up the way you've set it up, but I think we might agree this is very, very tricky for Jamaica because it's, you want to put in quotes, a trap game, but Trinidad and Tobago can play. They're,
00:04:56
Speaker
they're not great. And I don't think their style necessarily. I think their style is better against curse out that it against the Jamaica. They're kind of two physical teams. And so Jamaica just kind of have that natural advantage, but it's in the port of Spain.
00:05:09
Speaker
It's must win. Jamaica might be looking over them. It, it just could, I think this could get a little hairy, a little sweaty, a little grimy.
00:05:20
Speaker
This is, this is a tough little game for Jamaica. I, you know, I, It should be comfortable, but I'm i'm thinking Trinidad and Tobago are actually going to put up quite a challenge here. If ever there was a game for Jamaica to find the back of the net early, it's this one, right? Early goals change games, obviously, and if Jamaica can get out in front in this game, they will feel a lot more comfortable.
00:05:40
Speaker
you Both of these teams were built to get up one and then just kind of be physical, Jamaica especially. Trinidad and Tobago, if they're down one, I don't like their chances to come back, but as long as this thing is zeros, like, they're just going to bunker and hope to hit Jamaica on the counter attack with their wingers that you've kind of highlighted before are really tricky.
Trinidad and Tobago vs Jamaica
00:06:00
Speaker
It's not like Jamaica's outside backs are great. I think Jamaica's center backs are very good. So if Jamaica doesn't get one, how does this affect, you know, their mentals late in the game?
00:06:12
Speaker
The one thing that does help them is that Trinidad and Tobago can't play for the draw. So as this goes on, right, right there is that for Jamaica. So it's, it's going to be, it's going to be fun.
00:06:23
Speaker
Yeah, and I think that was the point that I wanted to make here. I think it's very interesting because we talk about this a ton on this show. So much of football comes down to who wants to have the ball and what are they trying to do with it?
00:06:35
Speaker
And so naturally, you would suggest that Jamaica as a better team should be looking to possess. But a draw is not a great result for Jamaica because, again, you're probably handing Curacao the advantage of playing for a draw on Tuesday.
00:06:48
Speaker
A draw is by no means the end of the world for Jamaica. They still have to go and win a home game. Whereas a draw is absolutely the end of the world for Trinidad and Tobago. So because of that, do we see Trinidad and Tobago forced into a possession-based game more because of that? And what what effect does that have on the game? I think it's interesting.
00:07:04
Speaker
Yeah. ah Jamaica would love to have Trinidad and Tobago try to do things with the ball because right they'll try to make mistakes. Trinidad Tobago is not going to take it. The other thing is just for Jamaica, a draw also I think 10 and a loss to curse out, which they don't want in the last game.
00:07:21
Speaker
I think 10 gets them into that intercontinental playoff spot compared to their groups. Again, we, we, we can't see everything before it happens, right but the Jamaica can be cautious ish in this game.
00:07:34
Speaker
And I think that will be what make it interesting because again, Trinidad and Tobago absolutely can't then let's shift to Jamaica. here what One word answer. Curacao will beat Bermuda. that That one we we all know.
00:07:45
Speaker
ah Sorry, sorry. Or one word. I didn't have one word, but the answer is yes. So that would set up Jamaica and Curacao in Kingston on Tuesday. We just saw this game. It was a 2-0 win for Curacao and Willem said, unfortunately for Curacao, they then went and drew against Trinidad and Tobago at home.
00:08:01
Speaker
If Curacao have to go into Kingston omit and win this game, can they?
00:08:08
Speaker
They can. It takes their best game and it takes scoring early and then it takes defending. I think it's a very hard challenge, but we know they've they've done it at home. This is one of those games that like is truly worthy of the winner gets a World Cup spot and the loser is, you know, in a playoff and very dicey and in a very difficult playoff.
00:08:29
Speaker
um I think the pressure will be on Curacao. I think it should be on Curacao. I think they're the slightly worse team. But they have a style that presents challenges for Jamaica because they can play with the ball. um It's very finely poised. I mean, I don't know. like We're not in the business of of handicapping.
00:08:47
Speaker
That's not really our thing. But in my mind, I would say 55-60% percent Jamaica. it's not It's not some great advantage. This is a game that you have to watch and figure out for your eyes who's better.
00:09:00
Speaker
And obviously the draw advantage for whoever that turns out to be, it's most likely going to be Jamaica, but it could be curious how that plays a huge difference because two results are are better than one. So I pose the next question to you, Amit.
00:09:12
Speaker
Can Jamaica be trusted with a draw advantage? It's another dicey one because the answer is like... ah Yes, they're good enough to use the draw advantage, but can they be trusted with it is a question where I'm going to say no, because I just think that's a dangerous game to play in a one in a match like this, where you start inviting Curacao forward, they hurt you, you're down.
00:09:38
Speaker
That's really, really dicey. Look, Curs are absolutely dangerous enough to where if Jamaica give them space and let them play, they can take advantage of that and make Jamaica pay for that. Exactly.
00:09:49
Speaker
And i I will say, though, up one, it's a very good spot for Jamaica, but even if they give up one. Just because that that then I'd say, oh, I can trust them. They don't need to go like hunt for two and expose themselves.
00:10:04
Speaker
And again, I do think Jamaica's strength in goalkeeping and in um central defending will help them. That's i want to say I trust the draw, of but I don't trust Jamaica institutionally and like the makeup of the players necessarily.
00:10:18
Speaker
i was going to say, if there's something crazy in this game, CONCACAF after Darkie, that helps Curacao. Yeah, for sure. Both these teams, they look to be full strength. that There's only long-term injury concerns for Jamaica.
00:10:30
Speaker
It's set up for a really, really good match on Tuesday, and I think we're both very excited for it. And again, it's it's worth remembering here. If Trinidad and Tobago can win twice, there is a scenario in which they get to 11 points and they are backdooring their way into the playoff at the expense of a Jamaica Curacao loser.
00:10:47
Speaker
So I don't think that's what's going to happen. That is obviously what Trinidad and Tobago are hoping to make happen.
CONCACAF Group A Unpredictability
00:10:53
Speaker
Let's shift across to group A, Amit, where on paper, it's a four-way fight where anybody can beat anybody, because again, they already have, where in reality, it's probably three teams for one spot and a potentially questionable chance at the Intercontinental playoff.
00:11:07
Speaker
That said, in this group so far, there have been eight games played and there have been exactly zero home wins. So maybe the the moral of the story here is that last place El Salvador, who play away twice, are the team to beat here.
00:11:20
Speaker
Probably not. But this group has been pure chaos so far. We haven't gotten any result really that has been expected. And it sets up a wild mishmash of games where the contending teams don't play each other. Suriname and Panama don't play each other.
00:11:37
Speaker
And lurking behind on five points, you have Guatemala who are in a situation where if they win twice, beating Panama away and Suriname at home, they're going to the World Cup irregardless of what happens in the other games.
00:11:49
Speaker
Panama, meanwhile, have scratched and clogged throughout this group. They still have it all in front of them, but they have just one win in four games. They've drawn three times. It's kind of time for Panama to let their quality show.
00:12:01
Speaker
And then we have Suriname, who have been the underdog delights in this group. And there's honestly no telling when Suriname might get another chance this good to make the World Cup. Can they hold their line? They have a very winnable home game against a very limited El Salvador team.
00:12:14
Speaker
Can they then go and play away against Guatemala and get the result, whatever result that may be that they need? On Thursday, Amit, Suriname play El Salvador at home. Panama play Guatemala at home. And then on Tuesday, Guatemala hosts Suriname and Panama hosts El Salvador.
00:12:29
Speaker
And I think the most likely scenario here, and again, in this group, most likely hasn't been what's happened, is Panama and Suriname both win their home matches on Thursday.
00:12:40
Speaker
If that happens, then it comes down to a last day shootout for them against eliminated teams where goal differential could absolutely determine who's going to the World Cup and who is maybe going to the Intercontinental Playoff.
00:12:51
Speaker
They are level on goal differential going into this window. Suriname have one more goal scored. It's four to three. Let's start with Panama. amit The pressure is on Thomas Christensen's bunch. It's time for them to win some games.
00:13:04
Speaker
Yeah, looking at it now, it doesn't feel as dire as it did than when they kind of punted at the end of last window. Because the home game is against Guatemala, which is the better of the two teams between Guatemala and El Salvador.
00:13:19
Speaker
yeah And if yeah they win and Serenam wins, and the last day, which could be a goal-different shootout, they have the easier of the two teams in El Salvador in the last day.
00:13:31
Speaker
And they're at home on the last day. Now, i i agree with you from the start. I think this is the hardest. This is really wild to handicap just because of how, you know, no home wins.
00:13:43
Speaker
It's been all the teams could beat each other. like But I do think Panama... Two home games. like Two home games and not against Suriname. So, like, in a sense that it's, like... it They could get away with it is basically the answer. They can.
00:14:00
Speaker
They can. They If you had to, if you, someone had to say, what's the most likely team to get out of the group? You can't really say Suriname over Panama based on you know, us on, you know, the day before this starts what we're looking at, right? That's the case for them.
00:14:20
Speaker
It's all set up well.
00:14:25
Speaker
A quick correction here. Panama's first game is at Guatemala. Oh, sorry, sorry. that makes That's on me. That's on me. I wrote that down bad in the rundown. But all that being said, again, Panama are the most talented team. You think that that would be the most likely scenario.
Suriname's Challenges and Hopes
00:14:37
Speaker
All right. Suriname, Amit, are the lovable underdogs that we have been great with throughout this entire World Cup qualification cycle. The case for them, I think, is that they have the easier game first, right? At home against El Salvador, they get three points there and then hope that Panama and Guatemala don't get the result that puts either of them in a great situation.
00:14:57
Speaker
And they are standing at a last day scenario in which perhaps a draw away to Guatemala is enough. I think the road is difficult for Suriname. It's an absolute must have three points at home against El Salvador in that first game.
00:15:11
Speaker
Yeah, it has to be, and then get get to the last game and just try to leave it all out there. I think you you nailed it. What's tough is that at Guatemala is just a hard game for them as a second game, and i we've just seen the legs for Suriname go at the end of these games, and I just think Guatemala-Suriname has been one of the fascinating who's better of World Cup qualifying.
00:15:37
Speaker
And... you know, maybe, maybe we think Suriname is a nose better, but I don't think like that's necessarily the the the case.
00:15:48
Speaker
So,
00:15:51
Speaker
I don't know. I'm not feeling great for Suriname, despite that they've gotten so close. But to your point, I think the best scenario is they win early and then maybe Panama slips up at Guatemala, which is a tough game.
00:16:05
Speaker
And it's already, we just talked about Guatemala, and then it's there, right? That's got to be, they need some help. And then you're looking at a direct head-to-head matchup, perhaps, with Guatemala on the last day. I think to your point of who is better, I think it's a fascinating question. And, like, it's the existential question that hangs over all of sport, right? Like, who is better?
00:16:21
Speaker
And it's funny because it's so subjective. Who is better on a FIFA World Cup pitch in Atlanta? Probably Suriname, right? Who is better at a band box stadium in Guatemala that seats 7,500 people and probably isn't going to have very good grass?
00:16:37
Speaker
Maybe it's Guatemala, right? you're ah Yeah, you're you're right on it. like it's just It's the format. It's the atmosphere. It's the mentals. like i do think that I do think Guatemala, I'm not saying they're more experienced necessarily than Suriname. I don't think that's necessarily fair, but I trust the manager.
00:16:58
Speaker
like I trust his experience in this situation just that much more. I'm doing the little fingers. I think that the vibes and X-Factors here favor Guatemala even if the talent favors Cernan like you said.
00:17:12
Speaker
And then we have, obviously, the Panama situation. And you talked about Guatemala a minute. Luis Fernando Tenna was very clear, that the Guatemalan manager, right? When they had three games to play, he said, if we win three games, we're going to the World Cup.
00:17:23
Speaker
right, they checked one box, right? They got one win at the end of the last window. And now Guatemala is coming to this window, sitting in third place on five points,
Guatemala's Path to Qualification
00:17:31
Speaker
one point back. But as I alluded to, they know if they win two matches, they are going to the World Cup.
00:17:37
Speaker
I don't know, two home matches, it should be stated. Are either of us buying that Guatemala can win two home matches and go to the World Cup? no, it's unlikely. We're not buying it.
00:17:49
Speaker
But in the way that this group makes no sense in the way that, you know, the two best teams have kind of stumbled, you, you and I both like believe there's a reasonable chance that they could be the ones standing on top here, especially if the other two teams like trip over themselves, which they've done.
00:18:10
Speaker
Right. Which has been the entirety of the group have been those two teams tripping over themselves. And the other part of it is right. We, We think Panama is the best team, the best team. We think Suriname, you know, has a great little project.
00:18:23
Speaker
Guatemala has a good project, but all it takes is Rubio Rubin and Aaron Herrera, like doing two goals that just are the two best moments in this window, right? It's all about opportunity.
00:18:35
Speaker
Guatemala know what they're doing. It's a very like, it's a very opportunistic slash don't beat yourself game plan. It's there too for them, right? It's it's it's really open.
00:18:46
Speaker
And Guatemala, hat tips who are our good friend John Arnold of getting CONCACAF, have moved their matches to the much smaller Estadio El Treble, which should be a fantastic atmosphere. It's tiny, it's bandboxed, it's going to be hot, it's going to be sweaty. Like, that's what you're looking for.
00:19:02
Speaker
trying to borrow a page from Bolivia. like Right. Right. It's like, yeah, I'd up the, up the sliders on home field advantage. Right. That's where the, and to your point, like that's how Guatemala gets this done. It's, it's, like it's all about the, the little arts, the little margins in CONCACAF. Right. I like that move.
00:19:22
Speaker
Uh, very quickly, el Salvador also still technically alive. They're on three points. they have two away matches. Are we buying it the other three teams are just better, right? It's not impossible, but like, it's, it's hard to believe it's hard to believe.
00:19:36
Speaker
I think I agree with you on that. Let's shift to the last CONCACAF group, Amit, Group C, where Honduras are the kingmakers while Costa Rica are the lurking big-name challenger and Haiti are hoping to get hot and keep their dream alive. Let's start with Honduras, Amit, who, through all of this, and this has been a lot for Honduras, right? They struggled against Cayman Islands at one point in this World Cup qualification cycle.
00:20:00
Speaker
They went to the CONCACAF Gold Cup and lost by six goals in their first game before making a semifinal. If Honduras beat Nicaragua on Thursday, they know that a point against Costa Rica at minimum would be enough.
00:20:12
Speaker
And there's even a chance that they qualify directly on Thursday if they beat Honduras and if Haiti, Costa Rica finishes in the draw. There's no way to Lozano up top for Honduras. He did his knee in a while ago.
00:20:23
Speaker
A lot of pressure on Romo Chioto. but i mean they have yet to concede in their four matches they have played. That is the type of organization that this Honduras team is looking for.
00:20:33
Speaker
And look, you kind of know what you're going to get with Honduras. It's not going to be necessarily pretty, right? This is a Reynaldo-Rueda side for all the positive or negatives that come with that.
00:20:44
Speaker
But I don't think they could really ask for much more going into this window, could they?
Honduras's Defensive Strategy
00:20:49
Speaker
No, I think that the thing for them is that they've done their work, their hardest work already.
00:20:55
Speaker
And I don't think they can do necessarily more than that. I don't think they're going to get big goals in this window. You just said it. Like they're counting on Romo Kyoto. Like I don't like that sentence in a vacuum, but the question is, can they just kind of like, can they go to Costa Rica and get a job? Right. that's Exactly. And so you've, you've done your work, you've set them up. And I think that is a much more palatable question, especially when you look at Costa Rica and you say,
00:21:24
Speaker
why Why hasn't this been working out for them? Oh, right. We just like don't really have the juice or the goals, right? we we We talked about what we've seen from Costa Rica this window.
00:21:35
Speaker
It hasn't been the favorite in the group. They've looked just very pedestrian. So I think Honduras, from their point of view, very well set up. You've kind of put all the pressure on the other team.
00:21:46
Speaker
i know they're I know they're leading the group, right? But I think like they they've kind of convinced themselves, we've we've done the hardest work so far. We've just got ah just gotta to keep at that discipline, the organization we've shown.
00:22:00
Speaker
And I think that is all well and good. ah would also encourage them, make sure you beat Nicaragua, right? like I know that we're just kind of glossing over the trip to Managua to play Nicaragua. And look, Nicaragua haven't been great. They lost 4-1 to Costa Rica. They lost 3-0 at home to Haiti.
00:22:15
Speaker
They got beat pretty handily 2-0 by Honduras the first time they played. But that is... Big old banana peel that Honduras need to do. I don't care if it's 1-0 and it's ugly. like They have to get the three points there because they have to set them themselves up for that draw situation against Costa Rica.
00:22:30
Speaker
I don't think Nicaragua are very good, but I think a spirit a spirited second-tier Central American team is still good enough to make life difficult for Honduras. Again, this is a team that struggled to beat the Cayman Islands at one point in this qualification cycle.
00:22:43
Speaker
So it's all out in front of them, but it might not be as easy as it seems. Let's shift now ammit to Costa Rica
Costa Rica's Must-Win Matches
00:22:50
Speaker
and Haiti. Let's start with Costa Rica. They're behind the eight ball here. Anything less than two wins and the best thing that they're hoping for is probably going to be making the playoffs and that stands like a big maybe.
00:23:02
Speaker
They answered the call against Nicaragua at the end of that October window. They won that match for one. It now gets harder. They o admit are facing a must-win away, not really away game against Haiti.
00:23:12
Speaker
That could be a repeat of September's 3-3 draw because guess what? It's a must-win match for Haiti as well. Draws are wild. They're not good in that match. I think that has the potential to be one of the best matches of this international window on Thursday in Curious Science.
00:23:27
Speaker
Yes, because it's Haiti's last gasp. And we we saw how good the last one was. And I... and there's Yeah, Haiti can play with them. Haiti can 100% play with them.
00:23:39
Speaker
That one was a weird one. I mean, the Duckens and Azan, we don't need to revisit the whole thing, but just to your point that like it's all a little wild, it's not good for Costa Rica to be playing such a wild game first when they need to. right I just think they've left themselves...
00:23:56
Speaker
Quite a tightrope, right? Right. Can they beat Haiti? ah hundred percent 100%. Beating Haiti in the weird twilight zone of Curacao, the game, the atmosphere there is stale.
00:24:10
Speaker
it It feels like a high school game on the stream. Again, we're not there. Haiti are, I mean, i think Haiti are 100% motivated to do it, right? Like, this is, it's hard. I think it's hard for Costa Rica.
00:24:24
Speaker
Haiti are gonna need help from Nicaragua if they are to make the World Cup outright, but the playoff is possible if they can win two matches. Anything less than two wins, they are probably done. They've been all over the place in qualifying. They've had some okay draws. They haven't really won any big games. They have to do it against Costa Rica.
00:24:40
Speaker
That said, the pressure is squarely on Costa Rica here, right? Haiti had been playing with house money this entire qualification. So it's been a great story. The pressure is on Costa Rica and the pressure, as you said, that tightrope that they left themselves a bit is six points.
00:24:52
Speaker
That's the path, right? Anything less than that. And again, as I said earlier, at best, you're looking at an intercontinental playoff where I'm not feeling great about their chances. At worst, they're simply done by the end of Tuesday night. Yeah. And, you know, we're kind of, we've talked about all three groups here and I think just assessing it on the whole, right? Like,
00:25:09
Speaker
Yeah, we feel decent about Group B between Jamaica and Curacao. One of those teams probably get in second place. If you look at the schedule in Group A and the fixtures, it could be random and chaotic.
CONCACAF Groups B and C Analysis
00:25:21
Speaker
But it does seem like the top two teams in that group, again, we know Guatemala is solid and they have a chance. But if the top two teams, Panama and Suriname take care of business, and they're at 11, both at 11.
00:25:34
Speaker
They're at 12. Sorry. They win twice. They win twice. They're at 12.
00:25:40
Speaker
Costa Rica is in trouble unless they, they do, unless they just make the world cup and win. So, right. So it is, it's, it's a tight, tight rope. It's an, nice you know, they're the, the Walendas, right. they They're over a Canyon. The wind's going, it's Niagara Falls.
00:25:56
Speaker
It's a tight, tight rope for Costa Rica. Are they good enough to do it? Have we seen the best teams in world cup qualifying wait till the end when they've, they've looked like a You know, they've played dead. They've looked uninspiring. And then suddenly woken up?
00:26:10
Speaker
Yes, we've seen it. But Costa Rica have not led us to believe that that's even that's even in there. Of the two big-name favorites that are kind of under pressure here, I think you feel better about Panama than you do about Costa Rica, right?
00:26:26
Speaker
The fixtures are better. Because just Costa Rica, yeah we can debate how hard, in quotes, the Haiti game is. But there's no denying that that's something of an effort it's going to take to beat Haiti, right? They're not some pushover.
00:26:42
Speaker
And then you've got to go beat Honduras. That is just two emotional, high-level games that are going to drain you versus Panama. it's it It is, but it's not quite the same. It feels like it's more of a hold serve and and against a team that's worse than you.
00:27:01
Speaker
It's dicey. You mentioned the the the situation for the playoff spots a bit. As we said, the top two of the three second place teams go. Jamaica, Curacao are looking comfortable, largely because we're thinking that there should be at least a minimum of 11 points there.
00:27:18
Speaker
You mentioned the scenario in which there's two Group A teams on 12 points. That would put the second place team in Group C potentially in a bad situation, Although there's also a scenario in which Honduras are on 11 points and then lose to Costa Rica. And that 11 points that we think is safe in group B all of a sudden isn't so safe.
00:27:37
Speaker
So this is going to be wild. As I alluded to earlier, all six of these games happen at the same time on Tuesday night.
UEFA Qualification Highlights
00:27:43
Speaker
And so i admit it's the old adage. I hope you got a guy, right? You gotta have a guy, right? A guy on bench has to be there.
00:27:51
Speaker
We saw this in other confederations, most recently in Africa. I have faith they all have a guy, but will the players play like they have a guy? i don't know. This could be delightful.
00:28:03
Speaker
This really could, because of the odds of it going the way we think it's going to go are just so low. to's like The second place race is going to be... i just know it's going to be great. There's gonna be like a stupid goal that could potentially make the difference here. And again, that's where you have to have the guy that is like, okay, three minutes ago, we were safe. We are now not safe, even though nothing changed on our pitch, it all changed everywhere else. So we gotta to go get a result.
00:28:27
Speaker
It's gonna be great. I hope you're locked in on on Tuesday night for that. Let's move across to UEFA, Amit, where, as I said earlier, 11 World Cup tickets are on the line. We still have 16 spots in the playoffs, to be claimed. There's drama that is bound to happen, even though we have largely had a slow build here. For those World Cup spots, I think we are in a situation where...
00:28:46
Speaker
Eight teams are looking very good to make the world cup. They are in such a good situation due to goal differential and the general situation in their groups. One win in their final two matches should do it.
00:28:57
Speaker
Switzerland, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, and Croatia. I mean, it would be a massive surprise if any of those eight teams do not make the world cup.
00:29:09
Speaker
Yes. Listen to the teams that Austin just said. They're all like, They're all up a game. they're They're in good straights. They have good fixtures. Like, things are always uncertain, but it looks good for those.
00:29:24
Speaker
And they all have a mulligan, right? Because of the way that it all is. Yeah, they could lose. You can lose once and still probably be just fine. Because the goal the goal difference for almost all of those teams is also just fine as well.
00:29:34
Speaker
Right, exactly. So because of all that, I think we can pencil those eight teams in. Again, it would be a massive surprise if any of those eight teams are not directly in the World Cup. So those eight plus England who have already qualified leaves us with nine of the 12 European direct qualification spots, more or less counting four.
00:29:51
Speaker
And we've got norway yeah Norway was in there, right? Right. Exactly. Norway's in there. And it's funny. We'll get to that in a bit. But we built up this Norway-Italy race, and it's not really going to be a race unless you're buying Estonia's chances to to take something off of Norway at the end.
00:30:06
Speaker
So for those three World Cup qualifying spots, emit where are our potential pressure
Germany's Group A Position
00:30:10
Speaker
points? We start in Group A, where Germany lead the way in the billing here. I think they should be fine.
00:30:16
Speaker
If they win two matches, they play Luxembourg and Slovakia, they will be in. They play Slovakia at home on the last day. The most likely scenario is that a draw in that match would be enough for Germany.
00:30:27
Speaker
But if they lose to Slovakia, And Slovakia have managed to beat Northern Ireland previously. Slovakia would condemn Germany to a playoff where they would qualify at least via the Nations League ranking or perhaps via finishing second place.
00:30:42
Speaker
We have to mention it, but Germany should be fine. They bounced back from that first day loss to Slovakia in September. Yeah, they've kind of already recovered. I think what's what's interesting here is Northern Ireland, theoretically, I know they have the Nations League fallback, as you said.
00:30:57
Speaker
Theoretically, should be motivated to to beat Slovakia in the first one. And that could even, from Germany's perspective, make it all rather academic. We know Slovakia lost Northern Ireland already. like It's not like that's an easy one.
00:31:10
Speaker
um But they could try to get to second directly. Anyways, it's it's hard to imagine Germany ah specifically calls because they have Luxembourg first. There's a non-zero chance that even before that game that they're they're fine.
00:31:23
Speaker
But yes, even if they're tied on points, they probably have the draw. like Germany's not going to beat Luxembourg by less than two. they're just like like so like they and and They might as well just put in 10 if they really are you know up for it.
00:31:38
Speaker
so It should be fine for Germany. Look, if Germany's World Cup qualification comes down to having to draw Slovakia at home, like, you either deserve it or you don't, right?
00:31:50
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. And they will. You mentioned the Slovakia-Northern Island fight. I think that's going really interesting in this group. Big, big match for in the first match of this group between those two for the playoff. Northern Ireland should have the UEFA Nations League fallback. We'll get to that more in a bit, but I think this is a key point to make.
00:32:06
Speaker
The UEFA Nations League fallback is good, but it is also going to be a spot in pot four in the UEFA playoff draw, and that will mean a having to clash with pot A. It is better to qualify for these playoffs, having finished second in your group and not having to rely on that fallback, although obviously relying on that fallback is better than not qualifying
Scotland vs Denmark Must-Win
00:32:24
Speaker
at all.
00:32:24
Speaker
In Group C, Amit, it looks as though we are going to have a Scotland-Denmark one-off match in Glasgow on Tuesday, where if Scotland win, they would qualify for the World Cup at the expense of Denmark.
00:32:35
Speaker
Greece and Belarus are already out in this group. If both Scotland and Denmark get points in their first game, obviously you are much more concerned about Scotland away against Greece than you are Denmark playing Belarus.
00:32:46
Speaker
Scotland would have a win-and-in situation against Denmark, while Denmark would have the draw advantage. If Scotland can get to that situation, and again, the word if is doing a bit of work there because they do have to go and play already eliminated Greece, that is going to be a fantastic atmosphere.
00:33:01
Speaker
Imagine what that national anthem is going to sound like with Scotland in a win and make the World Cup situation. They drew nil-nil with Denmark to open the group of September. You're probably still backing Denmark through all of this, but I wouldn't want to have to go and and and play for a point in Glasgow, right?
00:33:19
Speaker
100% no. This is another one of those great, there are a lot of great games, but must circle, have to see on the calendar, like atmosphere you said. And just, again, we're not in the business of handicapping, but I don't think you can put that even at 60 for Denmark. Now, if you're going to include the draw, yeah, you could say 60 to 70, but it was Scotland are fired up.
00:33:42
Speaker
they They don't give you a lot of space, right? and does Scotland can play. This is a really, really tasty game. i We know Scotland have the talent to to play a very effective style of soccer.
00:33:58
Speaker
I think this is good as that impressed by Denmark. Like, Denmark. No, 100% no. Like, this isn't like Scotland playing Spain. for Like, Scotland plays, but you're like, all right. Denmark are in that second tier of European teams. That tier of European teams could absolutely lose an away game against Scotland with all the pressure on.
00:34:13
Speaker
That, I think, is the most interesting fight for the World Cup spot direct in Group C. In Group H, Austria currently sit too clear of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Austria play away to Cyprus on Friday while Bosnia hosts Romania.
00:34:25
Speaker
That Bosnia-Romania match is absolutely massive because Romania have the UEFA Nations fallback. Bosnia don't. Bosnia have it all in front of them, right? If they win against Romania and then win against Austria and Vienna, they would qualify for the World Cup straight up.
00:34:39
Speaker
If they win against Romania, but then don't get the result they need against Austria, they would go to the playoff. If they don't win against Romania and then don't do something spectacular against Austria, they're probably out of World Cup qualification.
00:34:50
Speaker
They're one of the teams to watch in this window. I think it's worth keeping an eye here. Again, Austria in that second tier team of of UEFA, where they're not that much better than the teams they're with, but they are also better than Bosnia and Romania, right?
00:35:05
Speaker
Yeah, Bosnia and Romania just don't have reliable attacking sources, especially against decent teams. That are under the age of like 38, right? Because Eddie are still out there for Bosnia. And he's still great. like I don't mean that like lightly. He's still a good player, but there levels, right? There are levels.
00:35:21
Speaker
And so I do just think, as you said, it's a really fun game, the first one, but between Bosnia and Romania. And that actually sets the whole tenor. I think there's a decent chance Romania could could get points and Austria are fine.
00:35:35
Speaker
But to your credit, Bosnia have, as you said, Bosnia have it all to play for. So this very well could be interesting final day. You got to keep your eye on it. And i think, you know, Bosnia really, even if they don't get through the, as the winner here, they, you gotta to get something out of that first game. You can't let Romania sneak up on you because as you said, the way the Nations League works, Bosnia don't have that.
00:35:59
Speaker
It's a really good game. And I think, You know, there it's it's actually two really even teams and there's going to, like, that's a game where Edin Dzeko's quality matters or Romania's really good defending and pot shots matter. Like, that's a fun European game.
00:36:13
Speaker
Yeah, and again, those two teams played all the way back at the very start of this and Bosnia got a big away win against Romania that at the time we said, that feels like it's a big result. That big result has them in the situation where they're in now, but they need to to back it up with the whole leg of it here against Romania.
00:36:29
Speaker
So those are all the World Cup spots directly spoken for.
UEFA Playoff Scenarios
00:36:32
Speaker
Let's talk about some playoff drama because I think this is where we're going to get a lot of good UEFA action. Second place in each group goes to the playoff. That will be 12. They will be joined by four teams that have what we have been colloquially referring to as the UEFA Nations League fallback throughout this.
00:36:46
Speaker
What that is, is the teams that won their UEFA Nations League group, A, B, C, or D. There were four groups in all of them bar D, which only had two. Those teams are placed into a UEFA Nations League ranking table, and the four best teams in that table who have not already qualified for either the World Cup or the playoff will head to the UEFA League World Cup playoffs and will be in a spot where they will be into pot four. So that ranking very quickly reads as such.
00:37:15
Speaker
Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, England, Norway, Wales, Czech Republic, Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland, Moldova, and San Marino. Those are the teams that have a chance of taking advantage of this Nations League fallback.
00:37:27
Speaker
As it is, as it stands right now, before we play any matches in this window, it would be Wales, Romania, Sweden, and Northern Ireland who would have that fallback. Moldova and San Marino are going to need some help to be able to rely on that, more on that in a bit.
00:37:41
Speaker
So let's start with our playoff drama in Group B, where maybe the surprise of UEFA World of Cup qualifying has been Kosovo, who need a win or a draw, and if Sweden dropped points somewhere along the way to secure what I think is fair to say would be a pretty unexpected playoffs.
00:37:57
Speaker
That being said, Amit, I would highly encourage Kosovo to get that win on Saturday, not against Switzerland or Sweden, but rather against Slovakia, because they then have to go play Switzerland on Tuesday.
00:38:08
Speaker
And even if Switzerland are already qualified, I know who I'm picking in that match between Switzerland and Kosovo. But the opportunity is right there for the Kosovoans. One win, and they're guaranteed to at least spot the playoff.
00:38:20
Speaker
It's all right there for Kosovo. What a great story to get in the playoff, which again, it's a playoff, but like would mean a lot. I'm not feeling great. I'm not great on the fixtures. Slovenia is tough.
00:38:30
Speaker
And then Switzerland's tough. And you're you're saying, can Slovenia catch them is the question. And if they win the first game and it's six and seven, Slovenia is on six, Kosovo is on seven.
00:38:41
Speaker
Sweden doesn't really have anything to play for because they, as you said, already kind of got that Nations League spot. I'm not feeling so good for Kosovo. Because then it's Slovenia probably need to draw and the goal differential. Again, Kosovo are probably going to go backwards on that. so yeah But there there is a chance where even if Kosovo draws the first game, they're on eight, they could try to get in that way. So i they got a chance.
00:39:07
Speaker
I just... and No one's counted them in this whole time. And they're fundamentally not very good. yeah Right. Like, but but they've taken advantage of Sweden being not very interested and yeah yeah good beats, not interested, apparently.
00:39:22
Speaker
Yeah. So again, fun one to keep, keep an eye on. I certainly think they're, they're going to be up for it against Slovenia and Slovenia.
00:39:34
Speaker
Slovenia are motivated. i don't know. i don't, I don't, I'm not going to give Kosovo much of a chance. That's just my personal handicapping, but it's going to be super fun. And if they do, i will happily give them all the plaudits. Sweden, as you said, they have the Nations League bailout. If they somehow manage to get second place here out of this group, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, they don't have to play Switzerland. They could still catch Kosovo and and they could beat Slovenia on the last day. That would be huge for Moldova-San Marino heads out there. You need Sweden to finish second in this group if you want a backdoor playoff appearance for for one of those minnow teams.
00:40:04
Speaker
And then Slovenia, I bet you mentioned it. They're in the same position that Kosovo are in and that it's all right in front of them because if they can beat Kosovo, a point against Sweden might be enough. um So this group is certainly to be very interesting Saturday, Tuesday for for this group's games.
00:40:17
Speaker
Certainly one that you won't want to miss in group D a bit. It should come down to Ukraine and Iceland on Sunday at a neutral field in Warsaw. That should see Iceland with the advantage of a draw unless Ukraine can manage to get something off France on Thursday or Iceland stumble against Azerbaijan.
00:40:33
Speaker
These two teams have been fairly even Ukraine won a very wild five, three game in Reykjavik in the last window. It feels like this is exactly the type of game that should be deciding a spot in the UEFA playoffs, right?
00:40:46
Speaker
Yeah, you nailed it. Fun game. You know, i again, hard to handicap Ukraine versus Iceland. I think Ukraine's a little better on talent. They won 5-3. That was wild. Just have a little bit better pedigree.
00:40:58
Speaker
But Iceland's solid. this is a fun This is a fun one. I think Ukraine could back their way into a point against France. Perhaps. Not going to say that's... Again, what's France's interest in in doing this internet... their Their interest in doing this World Cup qualification cycle has not been high from the start. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, I think certainly Ukraine could try to help themselves out in that sense.
00:41:21
Speaker
um But I'll give them the slight handicap. But if we get there, that's a fun game. Super fun game. um Ukraine, Ukraine are a fun team to play. i like the way they play. Iceland are a little more boring, but that's kind of unfair to them. They actually have talent themselves.
00:41:36
Speaker
It was I mean, you can't say any these teams are boring. It was 5-3. Early Sunday afternoon for that Ukraine-Iceland match. In Group F, there is a logjam behind Portugal for second. One of Hungary, Ireland, Armenia have to go to the playoff. That's just simply what the math says.
00:41:50
Speaker
Hungary are probably the best position. They are best position in the table. They also don't have to play Portugal at this window. And they are probably the best team of these three teams. If they win against Armenia in the first match and Ireland lose to Portugal, that'll seal it. Nothing that happens the last day will matter.
00:42:06
Speaker
Ireland, meanwhile, Amit, are probably hoping to get to that Sunday game against Hungary with something to play for. They'll need to get a result off of Portugal or some help from Armenia for that to happen.
00:42:17
Speaker
I don't think Hungary are particularly exciting. I'm not really looking forward to seeing them in any way for the playoff, but I think they're best positioned from this group. Yeah, I agree. I wish Ireland had set themselves up better before this window. They haven't even a disinterested Portugal. I think that's a tough ask.
00:42:35
Speaker
I think Hungary can scrape by against Armenia. I hope Hungary Ireland has some juice on Sunday morning. I'm not sure that it will. I'm with you, but I do think Hungary have a little more quality than Ireland.
00:42:48
Speaker
Again, as the existential question you said, how do you know which team is better? And the answer is, I'm not necessarily sure Hungary is that much better, but so far they've got that point advantage and the better fixtures in the last window.
00:43:01
Speaker
out of the Those are the margins. So let's let's see if if that game matters. And if it does, yeah, game on. But Hungary is at home. think Hungary have a little bit of higher end talent compared to Ireland, who are pretty pretty pedestrian version of Ireland compared to even their best squad. So yeah, advantage Hungary.
00:43:17
Speaker
Yeah, hasn't been exciting for many of these teams, really, in this so far. that That draw that Hungary got against Portugal, obviously, is proving to loom very, very large in this group. Group J is super interesting. Belgium will make the World Cup.
00:43:29
Speaker
North Macedonia and Wales are in second and third. North Macedonia only play one time this window. Wales will play twice. And kind of none of it matters because they both are in that UEFA Nations League ranking.
00:43:41
Speaker
But again, as we alluded to, one of them will probably prefer, they'll probably prefer finishing second because you get an easier path to the World Cup in air quotes. But it also kind of doesn't really matter. It's just a weird group.
00:43:54
Speaker
Yeah, tough, tough to, for the reasons you just said to kind of suss it out. You know I think Wales is the team here that would feel that they should more incentive to get second and have a better chance. I think Wales, when this whole thing comes out, is exactly the type of team that circles. We can we can win a playoff to get a spot.
00:44:16
Speaker
right I think North Macedonia is happy to be in a playoff. Now, has that been the case so far at the World Qualifying? No. i Again, is Wales better than North Macedonia?
00:44:29
Speaker
I think so, on talent. So I don't know. Anything could happen. hard to Hard to understand, I think. But Wales a little better. The fixtures, they've got North Macedonia in the final day. They should be down three. They should come down head-to-head on Tuesday, right? And that'll determine who's in what pot.
00:44:47
Speaker
And the the goal difference is six right now. Can Wales beat Liechtenstein by, like, five?
00:44:57
Speaker
Maybe. They're not very good, but Wales don't. I think Wales can help themselves out quite a bit before that final game. And then I do think Wales was motivated. That's an interesting one. It'll be kind of weird because the loser of Wales, North Macedonia, isn't going to be kicking themselves.
Albania and Serbia's Playoff Race
00:45:15
Speaker
Let's let's kind of see here.
00:45:16
Speaker
i do think Wales is heavily incentivized to try to not be Nations League pod four. Yeah, I think that's fair because, again, as we'll get to on our patron-only POTS show that we're going to record later today, that could be a date with Italy in the first round.
00:45:31
Speaker
In Group K, a bit we've got Albania and Serbia fighting for the playoff spot. They both play England, this window, who are already qualified. They both have a very winnable other game. This... starts on Thursday.
00:45:44
Speaker
Albania in it will be very much hoping that they can wrap it up on Thursday. If they can beat Andorra and England beat Serbia on Thursday, it's done. It's dusted. None of it matters. If that doesn't happen, that is if Serbia get something against England at Wembley,
00:45:59
Speaker
Then Serbia would be hoping to beat Latvia on the last day and overturn that goal differential against Albania, who again have to play England on the last match day. Albania's hopes of making the playoff kind of comes down to how interested England are in beating Serbia at Wembley, right?
00:46:19
Speaker
A hundred percent. A hundred of That's their best way to do it. And i had some, it, it would be It would be foolish to predict like what England shows up. We can tell you this.
00:46:31
Speaker
We've seen England throughout all of qualifying. No, we haven't actually. I haven't seen England. No, we haven't seen them. But we've paid attention to what England have done. And what they've done is get through with like the least amount of effort needed.
00:46:45
Speaker
one zero versus Serbia. 1-0 away against Andorra. Yeah. Playing... Disgusting stuff. Thomas Tuchel is in charge, expending as little energy as possible.
00:46:56
Speaker
The vibes out of England right now, if you read some of this stuff, Tuchel is just like, yeah, we got a lot of good players, but like, I don't know. I just, I don't think they could all play on the field together. We kind of just got to figure it out.
00:47:10
Speaker
I think we're just kind of experimenting.
00:47:14
Speaker
good and fine for England. All of that to say, I think that helps Albania. I just do not think England cares about the result. Are they going to not try?
00:47:25
Speaker
no but like Serbia can use all of that effort to like try to break this. Is that enough?
00:47:34
Speaker
Who can answer that question? And then, if it isn't enough, right, and Serbia gets, so or if it is enough and Serbia gets something, then we posit the exact same question. How interested are England going to Tirana, Albania on the last match day and getting something, right? Negative. Like, I think half the players, like, don't even want to travel. They want, they big Premier League campaigns, like, they chit. They're looking at looking at the yellow card suspension. Is there a way for me to get yellow card suspended and not have to go to Tirana for that game? So, again, there's...
00:48:03
Speaker
This is very funny because this playoff spot is going to come down to what England do in this window. And I guess that's just what happens in this situation. Albania beat Serbia. I think they should be the team that make the playoff. Like that feels like the fairest result, but let's see what happens.
00:48:16
Speaker
And finally, i in in group L, it's going to be Czechia who make the playoff. but Would you like to dream with the Faroe Islands for a little bit with me? Give me the scenarios. all right. If the Faroe Islands can beat Croatia away on Friday, Croatia haven't been all that interested in this World Cup qualification campaign except for that one game they played against the Czech Republic.
00:48:37
Speaker
And the Czech Republic dropped points against Gibraltar on Monday. throwing up the the family feud. Gibraltar family is trying to steal. Zero points. When the Faroe Islands would be playoff bound.
00:48:50
Speaker
Yeah. The Czechs have the Nations League bailout anyway. They don't need any of this. ah But again, we're relying on Gibraltar to get a result. So not ideal. No, no.
00:49:01
Speaker
And then finally, it's worth mentioning that that big Italy-Norway battle has just kind of fiddled out because again, Norway had a plus 16 goal differential on Italy. If Norway beat Estonia in their first match, Italy would have to beat Norway by whatever that goal differential is sitting at. So that's probably going to be like 20 goals.
00:49:19
Speaker
um So again, that's not going to happen. So if Norway dropped points to Estonia, that's the only way that that Sunday Norway-Italy game actually gets interesting. um Norway could drop points, but they won't because they have been ruthless in this World Cup qualification cycle.
00:49:32
Speaker
So it's interesting because like we built up this big matchup and they've just kind of both been resigned to their fates. Now we're going to make the World Cup. Italy's to have to deal with a playoff. Speaking of playoff, I'm it. We have the CAF World Cup playoff. if It's a 14 playoff played in robot Morocco. One team is going to the Intercontinental Playoff.
00:49:48
Speaker
Three teams are seeing their World Cup dreams dashed and both semifinals here feature a favorite versus challenger matchup on paper. Let's start with Nigeria Gabon. The first game that we will get on Thursday.
00:49:59
Speaker
Victor Osheman bought Nigeria another chance. Can they take advantage of it? Look, we know the story with Nigeria, right? Huge quality, low consistency. Victor Osheman trying to put the entire team on his back.
00:50:11
Speaker
They now have to win three matches in a row over two windows against what I think are going to be difficult opposition in order to make the World Cup.
00:50:23
Speaker
This is the path that they have hoed for themselves, right? Like this is what they have made. Do we think they can get it done?
00:50:35
Speaker
I think I'm backing Nigeria on the back of Victor Oshman. I think you ask a hundred people what, who, sorry, this is a hilarious hypothetical. I'm not going to construct a hypothetical that explains why, but the answer is I think they have the best player. And I think,
00:50:54
Speaker
Cameroon. It's like a family feud, right? You just got, you yeah you got the hundred people. you need the hundred people. got a hundred people. Show me the player who decides the calf qualifying spot. It's number one, Victor Roseman.
00:51:06
Speaker
It's like, you know, it's, it's reductive, right? It's reductive. I just think even all that said though, like, yes, I think Nigeria can do it. This is so chaotic.
African World Cup Playoff Preview
00:51:18
Speaker
Two one-off games. like To get the third one-off game, right? It's not like you do it here and you're done. They got to go back and do it again in March. Yeah, so it's really, really hard. Any of these teams could do it. Like, truly any of these could do it. Yes, I'm going to back Nigeria. Yes, I think it'll be Nigeria or Cameroon.
00:51:35
Speaker
But if it's not that, I won't be surprised. And I think... Gabon, a hundred percent should back themselves to get a result against Nigeria with their attacking talent.
00:51:47
Speaker
Right. Just like, let's break them early. Let's get a moment. Right. They got strikers. Nigeria's defense is leaky. These are just two really great games. Like I'm just really, really excited. I, I,
00:52:00
Speaker
it's hard It's hard for me to handicap. We've seen a lot of these teams. To me, this is like, remember if this was an AFCON quarterfinal or an AFCON semifinal, what would you say?
00:52:12
Speaker
Right. Okay, yeah, these teams are better, but like, bounces are the bounces. You don't want to go down early. You know, I think Nigeria have ah have a bench. I think Cameroon have a bench. We saw DR Congo lose their legs to Senegal after 60 minutes. So I think that helps, right? i think that helps.
00:52:28
Speaker
You know Gabon, our little top-heavy, right? That's why we're going favor the two teams, but this is just this is put it on the table and play, right? This is as good as it gets. Yeah, and Gabon, they were really good against weaker opposition, right? They won all eight of their matches against not Cote d'Avoire in that group, and they they drew ones against Cote d'Avoire, and they lost one.
00:52:46
Speaker
They have dangerous players up top. They have Aubameyang, who was in fantastic form in October. They have Buanga. They can trouble a Nigeria defense that has been troubled by just about everything so far in this world cup qualification.
00:52:58
Speaker
The recipe is there. I don't think we can necessarily trust either of these defenses. I think we could get the polar opposite of what you expect in kind of these one-off sweaty matches and that this just goes bonkers and there's just goals flying in from everywhere.
00:53:12
Speaker
You have great attacking players who refuse to let their teams lose in Oshiman and Obama Yang. And this could just be fun from the start until the finish. Yeah. And, I agree with you. There's a chance that it could get off the rails. And certainly for Gabon, it suits them.
00:53:27
Speaker
For Congo, right? Like, you look at the Cameroon back line and you've got to be thinking we can, we could be them. And you're also thinking, can Yuan Wisa like outdo Abubakar in a game?
00:53:40
Speaker
Why not? Why not? Like, yeah, it's, it's going to be fun. I think both of the underdogs got to, can, can have really good game plans to achieve their result.
00:53:52
Speaker
Not just like bunker and pray. It's not going to be that. Right. Right. So you you touched a bit there a bit on the Cameroon-Dierre Congo matchup. That's the second semifinal that we get on Thursday. Cameroon have been up and down very eclectic in this World Cup. all right all right They are really good at their best. They beat Cape Verde, who made the World Cup 4-1.
00:54:10
Speaker
And they are really tepid at their worst. They drew 0-0 with N'Golo. They drew 0-0 with Eswatini. We watched Dierre Congo see their World Cup dream slip away against that match against Senegal in September.
00:54:21
Speaker
They bounced back with just enough in 1-0 wins in October. They weren't super impressive. But that said, on paper, and you mentioned this a bit, I'm not sure that this DR Congo team is that far off this Cameroon team. Like, line it up, put the ball out there.
00:54:36
Speaker
Okay, maybe Cameroon are a bit deeper. Man for man, 11 v 11. I don't think this is that big of a mismatch. You know, I agree i agree with you. yeah I think you're on it 100%. And I think Cameroon's defense is leaky.
00:54:50
Speaker
I do think Cameron's strength is in the midfield, right? Carlos Baleba. And then you're going to say Zombo and Guisa and Napoli, maybe the two best players outside of Guisa, right?
00:55:01
Speaker
Yep. But okay. You're going to dominate the midfield. Can you, can you win the whole game? The other X factor, a hundred percent got to be goalkeeper, right? Yes. Good. Anana there. Does he save Cameroon a few chances? The ball bounces to Guisa one-on-one.
00:55:15
Speaker
Does he make a save? We know Anana has kind of been mistake prone, but he's been good for Cameron. And then you look at Deer Kongo. if i'm If I'm picking a spot for them to be their Achilles heel, a defensive mistake in the box, the legs get tired, you ball watch, that's how they were undone, right? So, like, it's finally poised where the strengths and weaknesses are.
00:55:35
Speaker
But as you said, yeah, I think the squads are close. So the big final is then on Sunday. and There's so many possibilities here, right? Like I think you and I are are both in it. Like Nigeria, Cameroon is definitely the matchup that seems like it would happen on paper. But I don't think either of us are discounting by any means that it could be Gabon Cameroon, that it could be DR Congo, Nigeria, that it could be Gabon DR Congo for a spot in the World Cup.
00:55:58
Speaker
That wouldn't stun me if that is what happens. I don't think we need to to go into all the potential permutations of what that game could look like, but I do want to ask who you're backing to get through it. Also, look up dream yeah sorry, another update.
00:56:11
Speaker
I gotta get look these things up. oh We says out for DR Congo. It's Bakunbu, right? We got to go with Cedric Bakunbu. ah he could He could play. He's a good player too. He's not as good, but like the same the same thing applies. But yes, overall, the squad is still like close and actually...
00:56:28
Speaker
One more thing on Deer Congo, their defense might be a little better than Cameroon's, just defensively, just defensively. But Cameroon do have that goalkeeping advantage. yeah right I think that's that's a fair point to make.
00:56:40
Speaker
So who are you backing to survive this African gauntlet here?
00:56:45
Speaker
I said at the top, it's Nigeria, and I'm going to keep with keep on it. And I do think the other thing, that when it turns into calf, like sweaty ball, not going to say calf bounce ball, because I think this is a level above that.
00:56:59
Speaker
I think physically, right. They are the the most impressive team, right? We saw when they needed to turn their gears up, they can lock you in. They can get balls in the box and they have multiple players that win aerial threats in the box in a way that ivory that makes ivory coast good in a way that Nigeria can just kind of get those margins in tricky, tricky games.
00:57:25
Speaker
Their biggest weakness, right, is like their defense just makes dumb mistakes. But like isn't that a weakness you'd rather try to like clean up because it just kind of like mentally, it's like we're playing three finals. Like, no mistakes. Like, I don't know.
00:57:39
Speaker
So i think i agree I think I agree with you that I think Nigeria should get this done. But I want to make this abundantly clear that what we are saying here is that Nigeria are about to put in one, two performances in October that they put in.
00:57:55
Speaker
two performances in November, and then a potential one performance, you're asking Nigeria to play five straight games as good as they can play. And from what I've seen, and basically the entire history of this Nigeria team, I don't know that I trust them to play five straight games.
00:58:11
Speaker
And so at some point, it's probably going to go off the rails. And I think this Gabon match is a perfect opportunity for that to happen, because I think Gabon had the attacking players that could really make Nigeria pay. I think there's a chance that Nigeria maybe take a breath, right?
00:58:25
Speaker
All right. We got to the playoff. We're still alive. Take a breath. And I don't know that they can do that against Gabon. I think I'm still backing Nigeria, but I feel 0% good about it. I don't feel good about any of it. Right. I like, I would, I would love to see a Gabon Congo final.
00:58:42
Speaker
That would be awesome. I think that's a reasonable possibility. Like, The answer is we could talk about it in circles. You've got to be glued for this. It's going to be awesome. I guarantee you we're going to have a blast talking about these three games.
00:59:00
Speaker
it's it's really high It's World Cup-level knockout-level soccer, so it's fun. But without the sweaty plague ball of World Cup. like Yeah, exactly. These teams can't that These teams can't play that, yeah.
00:59:11
Speaker
Right, and so it's going to be fantastic. The two semifinals, again, on Thursday. That final would be on Sunday afternoon. I don't know why they chose to play this final on Sunday with two days rest when there are Monday and Tuesday that exist as days to this FIFA window, but sure, it's cap.
00:59:26
Speaker
So be sure to lock in on Sunday for that final. Finally, a minute we go to Asia where we have the UAE playing Iraq for a spot in the intercontinental playoff.
UAE vs Iraq Playoff Battle
00:59:34
Speaker
UAE will host the first league. Iraq will host the second league.
00:59:36
Speaker
Extra time and penalties as needed. We have been with these teams for a very long time, right? Asian qualifying has been as long as it has gotten. We know the characters. You've got...
00:59:48
Speaker
Hussein for Iraq. You've got Kyle Canedo. You've got i they're all slipping my name because I didn't write them down because I got lazy by the end of it. But right we know the characters for UAE.
01:00:02
Speaker
We know the character. Colin Issa, the goalkeeper. That's what I was looking for. We know the characters for Iraq. And I think Amit, we know the style here. right? It's going to be hot. It's going to be sweaty.
01:00:13
Speaker
It's probably decided by a goal. It might be decided by penalties. There might not be a whole lot of football played over 180 minutes. These two teams feel very, very level. Like these are the ninth best team in Asia, right?
01:00:28
Speaker
Yeah. I, I think you're on at a hundred percent. I don't think there's a lot between them. And I do think the most likely outcome is penalties. especially because neither of these teams are good enough to convince themselves that they should go for the game.
01:00:46
Speaker
Both of these teams' mindset, and i know i think their styles are different, right? UAE wants to use a little bit more of the ball. The Rock wants to play a little bit more against the ball. But I don't think either of them want to go for it so much without fearing that the other team will hurt them the other So I think you're just going to see a lot of stalemate and we, this is always true, but it's specifically here, a massive, massive focus on set pieces and a team that can get the lead.
01:01:16
Speaker
Whoever can get the lead first can really change this and force the other team to come up with something. I think the margins are going to be really, really fine. I, you close to 50, 50 as you want.
01:01:27
Speaker
Am I going to back the team? I'm going to back a rock by By a hair. By a hair because I think they're a touch more physical and I think you can score set piece goal and make you a make a mistake playing with the ball.
01:01:41
Speaker
52-48, right? right yes It's going to be grimy. It's going to be seeds. This feels like... You remember the old World Cup playoff, right? like In the old format, when it would come down to these weird home-in-a-way, it was always just grimy. There's just so much on the line, right? yeah that I think your point of...
01:02:02
Speaker
Yeah, UAE will say, we might be a bit better than them top to bottom. and We can play a bit better. Are we better enough to fully commit to doing that until we have to, though? And the answer to that, as you said, is probably no. And that's why this is just getting...
01:02:17
Speaker
get slimed down into reductive set piece soccer right yeah and there's there's no away goals right there are no away goals maybe that favors a iraq slightly but i think ua are a bit better over like i think we have maybe a difference maker more than iraq do in attack but again they have to trust themselves enough to go do that And they probably will feel better about doing that in the first match when they're playing at home rather than having to go and do that in Basra where there's going to be 70,000 people. It's going to be insane.
01:02:50
Speaker
Yeah, look, if you're looking for the best match of this window, it's not going to be these two. If you're looking for the tensest match of this window, it might be these two. Yeah, these guys, when they're marking each other, like, they're going to follow them everywhere. Like, there's just, there's going to be no room to breathe. It's it's chicken, right? who who Who's going to make a mistake in front of your own box?
01:03:12
Speaker
It's yeah disgusting, but incredible stuff. Yeah, 1-0 over 180 is absolutely on the table here. And penalties after 0-0 over, I guess it's not even 180. It would be, what, 210 after we get 30 extra minutes that we don't need?
01:03:25
Speaker
Absolutely on the card. But again, the the drama should be good. It should be fun. all right, that is as as comprehensive of a preview as I think you're going find just about everywhere. Look, it's going to be great. We are both very, very excited for this.
01:03:38
Speaker
If you want to know how you should follow this, where you should follow this, become one of our Patreons. Patreon.com slash WCAD. Three bucks a month gets you access to Patreon-exclusive shows. like the POTS Talk episode that Amit and I are going to record later today.
01:03:52
Speaker
And it gets you access to the World Cup qualification spreadsheet, which lists every single game with kickoff times and how to watch in both the U.S. and Argentina. A fundamental piece of information as you make your way through this World Cup qualification weekend from the UAE, Iraq, Nigeria, Gabon,
01:04:10
Speaker
double header on Thursday, all the way to the six pack of CONCACAF chaos on Tuesday night. From start to finish, that that that spreadsheet will guide you to where you need to go. And when all of that is done, we will have just six spots left in the World Cup. It's crazy to think. A big thank you, as always, to Amit, and a big thank you to you, our listeners, for allowing us to do what we do.
01:04:30
Speaker
We will see you on the other side or on POTS Talk if you're one of our Patreon-only subscribers. Chat then and enjoy the football.