Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
WCAD 3-36: Sensational September Stakes
53 Plays1 day ago
Austin and Amit recap an incredible window of international football, from CAF heavyweights going head-to-head to madness in CONMEBOL, plus everything in between from UEFA and CONCACAF.
Recommended
Transcript
00:00:01
Speaker
You know it's a good week of World Cup qualifiers when you don't even know where to start with the recap show.
Excitement in World Cup Qualifiers
00:00:08
Speaker
It's the World Cup After Dark Podcast. My name is Austin Miller. I'm joined, as always, by Amit Malik. 122 World Cup qualifiers over the last seven days or so, Amit.
00:00:17
Speaker
And we were treated to a feast of international football. Wild results all around. We've got a 5-4 to talk about. We've got a 6-3 to talk about. We've got altitude. We've got all of the fun stuff.
00:00:28
Speaker
I don't even know where to start there with so much. Neither do i I think this is one of my favorite World Cup windows. There's certainly been some more dramatic stuff.
00:00:39
Speaker
um And I think for me, the the the mix of it was the stakes and that a lot of good teams had to play meaningful games yeah and that they were high level games. And that we also got great games in results, some wacky finishes. Yeah.
00:00:53
Speaker
You know, I don't want to disrespect our earlier fun, you know, some really fun action we had, but, you know, it's it's a lot easier when when it's more
Cultural Celebrations in World Cup Qualifiers
00:01:01
Speaker
real. And certainly you felt the pressure ratchet up for a lot of big names this window.
00:01:06
Speaker
It was awesome. And there are some real consequences that we're here to talk about. Yeah, and I think the juxtaposition of it all is great too, right? Like one minute you're watching DR Congo against Senegal and there's no audio on the stream, but you can tell the atmosphere is lit.
00:01:22
Speaker
And then the next you're flipping to a European qualifier that's like this slick super produce. And you're just bouncing all around all across continents and you're just feasting on it all. And it's all great in its own. you Like,
00:01:33
Speaker
It's all great in its own unique way. And then you just see all of these cultures and things come together at the World Cup, right? And that's, I think, part of what makes the World Cup so great is it's not a European tournament.
Implications of a 48-Team World Cup
00:01:45
Speaker
It's not and like, it's all of those things put together in one. So look, we don't need to tell the people why we love doing this so much because it's clear why we love doing it so much. It's that, right?
00:01:56
Speaker
And we're going to talk about specifically some cultures and passion and fans that like really showed out this window. And we're just, you know, again, we could debate the 48 teams all we want, or not even, we're not going to.
00:02:11
Speaker
But certainly ah one of the best parts of it is getting more stories, more nations, more passion and fire in the world qualification process along to this point. And that was on display this window for sure as well.
00:02:23
Speaker
Yeah, and quickly on that point, like, one of the concerns, certainly about 48 was like, ah, qualifying won't even be difficult. Like, everybody will just get in. And yes, there's some of that. Like, we're going to talk about Spain beating Turkey 6-0, but Spain were going to qualify easily if it was 32 teams. Spain would qualify easily if it was 16 teams, right?
00:02:39
Speaker
But that is completely out the window because we're going to talking about massive, massive teams that have qualification stakes on the line,
Challenges for Top Teams in Expanded World Cup
00:02:46
Speaker
right? Italy, Nigeria, there's massive teams that are in danger of missing the World Cup, even with 48 yeah Yeah, even our Asian teams that are sent to a playoff, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. And exactly. So certainly it's been easier, but the the format is not shielded so even the the best teams from getting in automatically. And that is a good sign of generally a fun qualification process.
00:03:12
Speaker
Man, I'd forgotten about Qatar and Saudi Arabia because they didn't play in this window. You just kind of put downer on was like, oh, I got to watch those guys again in October. Saudi Arabia played some European friendlies this time around. This is a great place to start the show. They ah drew with Czechia. Qatar played Russia. Russia apparently still have a national team, they're playing Qatar and friendlies. So good stuff. All right. Let's go to the things that actually mattered.
Highlights of African World Cup Qualifiers
00:03:32
Speaker
And I think we should start in Africa, i it because we built it up on the preview show. We talked about the big on big matchups that we would have, particularly in the second match day. And just as a general point of emphasis, they did not disappoint.
00:03:45
Speaker
A hundred percent. We got the Tuesday window specifically was, I think one of my favorite days of qualification. There were just four great games on that day. You know, the Thursday was, there was some Thursday, Friday, Wednesday, there were some stuff that happened, but um it's kind of all been building up to, to this. I feel like for a long time in calf qualifying and we got the goods.
00:04:05
Speaker
So let's kind of take a big picture look at this to start. And I think this will help us kind of organize our thoughts here on Africa because there's no need to go deep on a lot of different things. Tunisia and morocco official Morocco, I should say, officially qualified.
00:04:17
Speaker
Look, Morocco was never in doubt. They are the best team on the African continent, I think. And they also were drawn into the easiest group. They're the only team that has won every single game. It's not a surprise that they've won every single game, but we know African qualifying can be difficult.
00:04:31
Speaker
A round of applause to them. I'm excited to see them at the World Cup. I don't think we've had to see them at their best yet. Yeah, agreed. And I think that's, you know, something to consider when we get there. ah Kind of how how it's going to be hard to gauge how things have changed since the last. thought it would be a big help for that, right? Yes, that's a point for high stakes games and seeing how they look against high stakes opposition.
00:04:52
Speaker
We haven't seen it, but you just you have to trust it. And certainly the how easy they made it look makes it easy to trust it. We'll talk more about them as we get closer. Tunisia, as we mentioned, also qualified. i think they were always going to get there, particularly after Equatorial Guinea lost six points for the whole Emilio Nsue drama.
00:05:11
Speaker
They sealed it by beating Equatorial Guinea, pouncing on a late defensive air in the 90 plus fourth minute. I don't think Tunisia are super great. They were challenged a lot in this group. Look, we know kind of what they are. Like, I'm familiar with your game, right?
00:05:26
Speaker
And they're going to be at the World Cup, and we're going to see how that game translates there. Yeah, it's not a game that translates great. They're just, you know, kind of lacking some high-end athleticism. ah But they're organized, and certainly they they they know their game, as you said.
00:05:41
Speaker
Again, big benefiters of of the points penalty here that, you know, I think a lot of teams in Africa had to deal with strong second and third seeds in their pot. They just didn't have that. But look, the scenes were great to win so dramatically um at home um at home and Again, it still means a lot for them, for this team to make, you know, to two World Cups back to back. So I'm, you know, they're going to be in the bottom group of teams, um but they're certainly, you know, they're certainly competent and competency in CAF gets you a long way.
00:06:14
Speaker
So again, you have to you have to say, but job well done. Good job, Tunisia. Eight played, seven wins, no goals conceded. That's job done. That's exactly what you're looking for in African qualifying.
00:06:25
Speaker
Egypt and Algeria are not qualified for the World Cup, but they comfortably held serve by winning one match and and then drawing another. They're one win away from the World Cup. They have pretty easy matches coming up in October. I think we expect to see both of them there.
00:06:37
Speaker
Egypt scored two penalties to beat Ethiopia, then had a nil-nil draw against Burkina Faso. Algeria were, I think, fairly solid in that 3-1 win over Botswana. Nil-nil against Ghanai, good enough. It's very unlikely, but if Algeria do somehow stumble against Somalia in the first game in October, it could set up a fun head-to-head showdown with Uganda on the final day, who are worth a mention here.
00:06:56
Speaker
That's probably not going to happen. Egypt and Algeria, you just kind of keep trucking along. That's what they've done here. Not a whole lot we need to say there. Now let's get on to the big on big matches that we talked about. Let's start in group B.
00:07:08
Speaker
With a word of condolence for our friends from Sudan, um they never really recovered from that South Sudan disappointment. There was just really no coming back from that moment, unfortunately. They were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Senegal, and then they lost 1-0 to Togo, a bad result.
00:07:22
Speaker
They were a really fun story of World Cup qualifying, but at the end of the day, there was just such a gap in talent and such a gap in resources that giving away those type of results like they did, and just you're going to fall short.
00:07:36
Speaker
I think that's a good way to put it. um They certainly flashed moments where it looked like they could compete with some of the bigger teams in CAF. But to be at that level, you have to do it consistently. you can't have excuses.
00:07:50
Speaker
And you can't do dumb things like give away goals in the box off nothing with poor goalkeeping, which is what they did to Senegal. And you can't also, again, to your to the start of this all, not beat a team like South Sudan when you need to keep race with the bigger teams in this group.
00:08:07
Speaker
um I think it's all kind of fair. It stinks for for them. Again, they were a great story and they had some, some great moments. There's things to build on for the next cycle, but ah yeah, it's the, the Senegal game I think was, was very revealing. That was their biggest game of the cycle. They needed a response after South, the South Sudan disappointment.
00:08:28
Speaker
And they certainly, you know, challenged Senegal, but like one mistake, they were down and they did not have the type of team and talent to chase a game. They're built to play a 0-0 and sit on that lead.
00:08:40
Speaker
I think it's all, I think it's pretty fair. That result, coupled with a big win for DR Congo against South Sudan, set up the DR Congo-Senegal match that we were very excited about in Kinshasa, and this one, admit, did not disappoint.
00:08:54
Speaker
It finished Senegal, DR Congo 2, Senegal 3. Game of the CAF qualifiers, I think? I think for stakes, atmosphere, really yeah awesome atmosphere in Kinshasa, as you said. and then the And then, you know, Senegal came back from a 2-0 lead. yeah This was a really high-level game, too.
00:09:15
Speaker
um And I think, you know, kind of previewing it, i we were like, we don't really know what's going to happen. Who's going to go for what? What's the strategy here? Dear Congo went for it, and they brought a really...
00:09:27
Speaker
great opening push. They put Senegal's okay defense under pressure, but the story of this game was they could not hold on to Senegal's onslaught over 60 minutes, over 90 minutes. The last 30 minutes was ragged.
00:09:42
Speaker
And Senegal, I think, right? Too much quality in the end to to score the types of chances that good teams take half chances. Yeah. Yeah, Bakunbu and Wiesel were both really good. The the goal that Bakunbu scored was... like this This was a really high-level match, right? like So often, sometimes in these cap qualifiers, we talk about goalkeeping error.
00:10:04
Speaker
That wasn't really the case here. These were high-level teams duking it out back and forth. And yeah I think Derek Kongo were just that... one level below where Senegal was. And so even being spotted a two-nit lead, I think Senegal showed a lot of composure here. They got one back before halftime. That obviously really helped. There was a pretty clear goal going into halftime.
00:10:23
Speaker
They knew that they probably needed to win this game and they went out and they did it. Nicholas Jackson in the 53rd. And then you could just see it minute and you said, you mentioned, it you could just feel it. They just started to tighten the screws and tighten the screws. And slowly but surely, there was less and less for DR Congo to do the other way. They were less and less capable of holding onto the ball.
00:10:43
Speaker
And when you do that against good teams, it's hard to hang on. They weren't able to do it. Your man, Papasar scores in the 87th minute. And then things kind of just kicked off because that great crowd and great atmosphere was just not pleased with how things were going.
00:10:56
Speaker
DR Congo had a couple of chances late. I think Senegal deserved this result, but they had to work for it. Yeah, I think this is a good reflection on Senegal's overall picture right now.
00:11:09
Speaker
right they They are better than DR Congo. To come back from 2-0 by just kind of flipping the switch, impressive. And you see that star power all over the field in all three phases, and especially in the midfield take over.
00:11:23
Speaker
um You know, Gay, Sar, Jackson. And I think also, you know, at the start of this window, it was kind of like... um ah Sadio Mane is still kind of the the guy that needs to to make things happen. And they look kind of toothless and they kind of figured out like that's not really our way to play. We in Nicholas Jackson is going to be our big finisher and that he wasn't available for some games early in the window.
00:11:50
Speaker
And then I think the midfield dominance took over where they again, you know, it's not going to be 100 percent every game, but they can be look more like a team that was a round of 16 World Cup team.
00:12:01
Speaker
They didn't look that um for for parts of this window. The reason why they needed to get a result in DR Congo this late in the cycle. So they're maddening at times, but you can see in a game like this, again, really pressure-packed atmosphere, down to the The talent is there.
00:12:19
Speaker
this is This is going to be a dangerous team at the World Cup if they can get there. um I come away more on the impressed side, but its you have to acknowledge the whole picture with Senegal that like they can be down too and their defense certainly isn't that great.
00:12:36
Speaker
But sometimes, I mean, you paint yourself into a quarter and calf qualifying is about getting out of that, right? That's just right what this cycle does to you. And that's just what some of this happens. So, yeah, I think it's it's it speaks a lot to them. And I think they're, they're like I said, well-deserving of this result. and And I think they are on their way now to the World Cup.
Controversies and Surprises in African Qualifiers
00:12:55
Speaker
Let's talk quickly about what happens in October. Senegal are away to South Sudan, home to Mauritania. Two wins and they're in. This October window is going to be very interesting. We don't need to go in depth on on any of these teams here. But it's...
00:13:06
Speaker
No big on big matchups. There's not a lot of difficult games. It's going to be CAF spoiler season. And look, CAF loves a spoiler. We know that it can happen. We've seen it happen. We'll talk about it happening in this window itself. So we'll keep it high on that come October. But I think Senegal are are in pole position here.
00:13:21
Speaker
As we move to Group C, it's a South African chaos update to start, Amit. This had kind of slipped under our radar, but is absolutely worth mentioning here. When South Africa played Lesotho earlier in this qualification cycle, they won 2-0, but they had Tebho Mokwena in their starting 11, and he should not have been in their starting 11 because he should have been serving a yellow card suspension for yellow card accumulation. He picked up two yellow cards. He should suspended.
00:13:47
Speaker
Lesotho did not protest Mokwena's inclusion. South Africa have acknowledged that he shouldn't have been included. There have been previous cases where this has happened and FIFA has been pretty clear. It's a 3-0 result to the team that didn't field the ineligible player.
00:14:00
Speaker
FIFA have been very quiet on this. I think you and I, with our experience with global sport, are kind of aware of what's going on here. is FIFA's kicking the can down the road and saying,
00:14:12
Speaker
Ideally, South Africa can just qualify and then we can take the three points from them and it won't matter. That's probably what's happening here. It's worth keeping all of that in context as we talk about what happened in this group.
00:14:24
Speaker
On the pitch, South Africa, a comfortable 3-0 away win against Lesotho in a match that was actually played at home. Lesotho is completely surrounded by South Africa, so that's where they played their match on a neutral site, but it wasn't neutral because it against South Africa and they won easily.
00:14:38
Speaker
And then the grimy 1-1 home draw with Nigeria, which I think does South Africa a lot of good. Nigeria had beaten Rwanda one nil but it kind of felt like too little too late for Nigeria. They needed this game against South Africa, and they just didn't get it. They showed some good things. I thought the equalizer from Bassey was really impressive, even if it should have been ruled off for being a handball.
00:14:57
Speaker
But they also had an own goal that shouldn't have happened from Trusek on. This has just been the story with Nigeria this entire cycle. A lot of things there. And starting with that game, which was ah one of the games we were looking forward to the most. I think it delivered on the spectacle. The atmosphere was a really good um atmosphere in South Africa. And I think what we saw for Nigeria is, one, they were missing missing Victor Asamen, who didn't play, went off injured.
00:15:24
Speaker
um And that kind of is, they need him And their overall attack, which I think has good players, right? You saw Adam Oluokman, you see Awobi, you saw Bassey even coming in. not Not a player you expect, but like...
00:15:39
Speaker
ah physical advantage over South Africa. He's too big. He had a great header. um I mean, he had a great header off his hand. it did But hey, it all counts in calf because there's no bar. Right. But Nigeria is a better team than South Africa, I think.
00:15:54
Speaker
I feel pretty strongly about. And I think they played mostly better, but they have a weakness in defense, right? They they got kind of carved up ah by hold-up play by the man I mentioned, Lyle Foster, who again,
00:16:08
Speaker
Not a great player. He's relatively, he's a Burnley striker, but like had enough to let South Africa's runners get up the field and counter Nigeria.
00:16:19
Speaker
And I think it's it's also evident that Nigeria are in this point where like South Africa could get away with a three-point deduction and maybe get through to to go back to your very first point. yeah that's and That's an indictment on Nigeria's whole cycle and their unpredictability and their inability to get the job done. And the truth is like they need awesome men to score to win by two or three goals because they can't hold on to one goal leads.
00:16:46
Speaker
They're not good enough defensively to do that. Personnel-wise, structurally-wise,
00:16:52
Speaker
I think this is this is what we've come to expect from Nigeria. This was a big moment. they They came up ready for the moment. They did a lot of the right things, but they couldn't see it out. And the indictment of Nigeria is that if South Africa are docked three points, Nigeria aren't the team benefiting from it.
00:17:07
Speaker
It's Benin who would benefit from it because they had a perfect six point window. One no win over Zimbabwe, a comfortable win in a delayed match against Lesotho that was played in the Ivory Coast. There would be tied on points with South Africa if South Africa are docked three points.
00:17:21
Speaker
As it stands, they are three points back of South Africa. In October, South Africa go away to play Zimbabwe, home against Rwanda. Those aren't particularly easy matches. This group has thrown up chaos whenever we've expected this.
00:17:33
Speaker
I think South Africa are close, but Benin are worth a mention here, particularly if there's a three-point penalty hanging over South Africa at the end of all of this.
00:17:42
Speaker
100%. I think Benin is well within their rights to expect FIFA to apply the ah precedent, right? um So it could it could be messy. Yeah, but the thing is, so South Africa's point is, yeah, we did it, but Lesotho didn't care. they didn't They didn't protest. Like, there's a protest window.
00:18:00
Speaker
It's a whole mess. well We'll get into it if we have to. We didn't have a very tricky window in October. I think it's worth mentioning. They go away to Rwanda and go away to Nigeria. They're probably going to need six points from that to keep pace with a potentially penalized South Africa. FIFA could get away with it.
00:18:14
Speaker
Yes. I know. Like I said, they're just going to sit back and at the end of the day, it's like what happened with Brazil and Argentina the last cycle, right? They just didn't play the match because they didn't have to. That's what we're going for here.
00:18:26
Speaker
Let's shift to Group D a minute where the story is our friends from Cape Verde. Comfortable wins on the first match day of this window from both Cape Verde and Cameroon. Cape Verde 2-0 over Mauritius. Cameroon 3-0 over Eswatini.
00:18:37
Speaker
set up the big showdown on the islands of Capeford and the sharks, the blue sharks in it. They came through one, no win over Cameroon in a game that was partially played in a monsoon.
00:18:50
Speaker
Capeford played good things in this match. Like, I don't think you look at the clubs of who these players play for it. It it might not back it up, but but this is a good team and they were well worth their one, no win here.
00:19:03
Speaker
Agreed completely. a great atmosphere at home for Cape Verde. They were definitely, you know spurred on and buoyed by their fans. And again, I think this is a a theme in CAF that Cameroon, great attacking talent.
00:19:17
Speaker
You know, you look at the names, you look at the club, it's great. Defending talent, it's Europa League level. Nah, there's MLS players in that back line, baby. Yeah, i yeah. New who of the Seattle Sounders. It's Conference League, Europa League, like MLS. And then I'm not saying Cape Verde striker, Dillon Livermento, who got the win, is like Champions League, but sir o strike ah he's He's at the level, i think. And you I think also, you know,
00:19:45
Speaker
The clubs for Cape Verde aren't as good, but there's a strong Dutch influence on the team. There's a strong technical style. um And we see this in CONCACAF. We see this in Indonesia, in Asia, right? There's a there's something to ah the total football approach working at the international level with scouting and coaching. And ah to to your point, Cape Verde can play.
00:20:10
Speaker
And Cameroon, right? They they were down one in this game. And... They couldn't break down Cape Verde. They couldn't get the ball to their attackers. They had a good midfield, but it was stale.
00:20:24
Speaker
um and Certainly the conditions ah play a part, right? Yeah, but welcome to CAF. Yeah, but welcome to CAF. I think this is just – this is an awesome result. And you saw what it meant to Cape Verde at the final whistle, right? they The celebrations were really awesome.
00:20:39
Speaker
This was this was ah one of the biggest single game shocks, I think, um that we've seen in qualifying. Worth mentioning the wonderfully nicknamed manager Bubista for Cape Verde, who has been in charge since January of 2020. That is a long-term buy-in to a project. and I think Cape Verde are reaping the benefits of that here.
00:20:59
Speaker
It could go wrong for Cape Verde in Benghazi against Libya because Libya have been pretty solid here. But even if it does, they'll still have a chance to close this out against Eswatini at home. You feel pretty good about that.
00:21:11
Speaker
We do have to keep an eye on Libya here, Amit. They're now just one point back of Cameroon after this window, but they're going to need to beat Cape Verde, and they're also going to need Cameroon to slip up against Mauritius or Angola, which isn't super likely, but stranger things have happened, so let's see.
00:21:26
Speaker
Group F, Amit, another group we're going focus in on here, and the storyline here is that Ivory Coast are going to do what Ivory Coast are going to do. First match of the window, a potentially tricky game against Burundi. They scored in the third minute and they shut it down and won 1-0.
00:21:40
Speaker
They're going away to play Gabon. A draw benefits them. You know what they did admit? They shut it down and they drew niil nil I thought Gabon were pretty good here. There's some good attacking players. They created well. They hit the post late.
00:21:51
Speaker
But Ivory Coast are just at a defensive level right now that is relatively unmatched in CAF. I think Tunisia are probably the only team that have matched them in defensive record. You just don't score on Ivory Coast. And that makes things really, really hard. And they're not super impressive unless they're playing the Seychelles, but they don't need to be. And they're going to get to the World Cup. And I think they're going to be a tricky, tricky process prospect once they're there.
00:22:13
Speaker
Yeah, CAF is extremely physical. And obviously, you know, people can say that about African soccer all they want, but you watch the games and it's about defending your box. It's about aerial superiority.
00:22:25
Speaker
And a lot of lesser teams um try to level the playing field by playing Chaos Ball. And just, you know, player for player, Ivory Coast defenders are very, very good.
00:22:38
Speaker
No nonsense. Very professional at this. I think it's the the best defense in in the and the continent. And that's, you know, with credit to Morocco and Tunisia, um who, you know, have good records. But for Ivory Coast to do this against...
00:22:52
Speaker
a good attack in Gabon who played well, right? That's just very professional. And we saw this work in AFCON as well. They're very suited to um just playing a very mucky game. To me, it's a lot of similarities to Columbia.
00:23:06
Speaker
um In Conmeball, the way they approach the game, they're specifically Columbia's physical defense and no-nonsense approach. um It's going to translate well, I think, to the World Cup. Again, they have to finish the job here.
00:23:19
Speaker
But if you're going to trust the team, I really like trusting Ivory Coast in a region where it's really hard to trust big teams specifically because of their defense. And we've said this over and over again, but I think this result, this game, is is very strong proof of concept for for Ivory Coast.
00:23:35
Speaker
Look, if you can come up with a defense that can travel and calf qualifying, you're going to go a long ways, right? We've talked about defensive weaknesses for a lot of the teams. We've talked about bad goals. Ivory Coast don't do any of that. That gets them well.
00:23:46
Speaker
They're in pole position. They do have to win twice, though. They can't just play out draws. They're going to win away to Seychelles. But Kenya at home could be potentially tricky. Kenya actually held Ivory Coast to a nil-nil draw when they played. So that will be the match to watch in October. Gabon will keep putting the pressure on.
00:24:00
Speaker
Gabon keep wanting to win and win by a lot because there's a whole second place fight that we'll get to in a minute. So it's going to be an interesting finish. But Ivory Coast have i've done a lot of the job here. Now, as you said, admit they just have to finish it.
00:24:12
Speaker
All right, let's finish our cap section in Group I, where i admit I'm going to ask you one question that in this window and in the future we got three different answers to. That question is, can you trust Ghana? Answer number one is no.
00:24:25
Speaker
That came from a 1-1 shock draw against Chad to open this window. Ghana are so much better than Chad. They have so much better talent. All of this, they got a 1-0 lead and they just didn't do anything with it.
00:24:36
Speaker
And look, if you let bad teams hang around long enough, Even bad teams can do weird things and punish you. And that's what Chad did. A deflected shot, a miracle result, their first point in World Cup qualifying.
00:24:48
Speaker
This was Ghana at their worst. You nailed it. It's, this is all the good things we said about Ivory Coast. And this is what applies to Ghana. And we talk about Nigeria, suspect defense. Cameroon, suspect defense.
00:25:05
Speaker
Ghana's worse. you know Or they're on the level of those teams in the neighborhood. ah You can't be giving up late goals to Chad. You either got to be up 2-0 or you simply have to see out a 1-0 result.
00:25:17
Speaker
I'm i'm i'm frustrated. I feel bad for them um because they are so much attacking talent, maybe even more than Cameroon and Nigeria going forward.
00:25:29
Speaker
It's a team of extremes. But the extreme is the second part of the answer the question is I think maybe yes, with a question mark, you can trust Ghana. Because after Mali had beaten Comoros in the first match, which unfortunately probably cooks our good friends from Comoros, another great story of African qualifying here, that shit up set up the showdown in Ghana. Mali on the road had to win.
00:25:51
Speaker
And Ghana... kind of took care of business because Alexander Jiku scored on a set piece goal. The Malian goalkeeper didn't cover himself in glory, which, hey, that's good for Ghana. And they were able to see this one out that has them in a comfortable-ish position. Again, the draw against Chad was bad. They'd be a lot more comfortable with two more points on their tally.
00:26:12
Speaker
But they're three points clear of Morocco, four points clear of Comoros. They've already left Mali eliminated. They're going to have to finish the job. Again, we'll get to the third part of the question in a second, but this was a good result for them, a great way to bounce back.
00:26:27
Speaker
yeah This is the biggest result of the whole cycle for Ghana. This was their biggest challenger on paper coming in. I know maybe Comoros Madagascar you know rose up in this group.
00:26:38
Speaker
um This was grimy. This was ugly. You don't make the mistake. You make their goalkeeper of the make of mistake. Sometimes you have to to win playing the ugly ball. yeah um Yeah, I mean...
00:26:50
Speaker
Central African Republic away, Comoros home. it's It's not great. It's queasy a little bit because like that away trip is hard. And as you mentioned at the top, like, calf teams love to play spoiler.
00:27:04
Speaker
But, like... Again, I love to say this a lot. If you have told me at the beginning of the cycle, hey, you you have those two games left and then you you get an auto bid, no playoff. You're gonna, you take that almost every time, right? Yeah, for sure. Madagascar are the team that's lurking a nice window for them. They had a comeback win over Chad. Chad played some great football in this window. As good as we've seen from Chad. They got a point out of it too. Good for them.
00:27:26
Speaker
They still play Comoros and Mali, which are going to be tricky games. Comoros and Mali are still in this this wild fight for second place that we're going to touch on in a second. It'll be hard for Madagascar to pass Ghana. they'd they'd They'd have some work to do on goal differential.
00:27:40
Speaker
But again, from what we've seen from Ghana, not entirely trustworthy. That's going to certainly be a group that we're watching down the stretch in group eye. We'll touch quickly here. We haven't talked a lot about this in CAF because it's just been too crazy to kind of make sense of.
00:27:53
Speaker
But there is a Massively important second place table in CAF qualifying because the four best second place teams will qualify for a 14 African playoff for one spot in the intercontinental playoff.
00:28:07
Speaker
Essentially, it's a playoff to get into a playoff. It is a second chance to get a third chance. It's not the way you want to make the World Cup. It's not the easy way to make the World Cup. But for some of these teams, it's looking like the only way they're going to make the World Cup.
00:28:19
Speaker
And it is a complete and utter mess in this table, Amit. We're going to be doing goal differential abacus calculations all throughout October. The only thing I think I can confidently say I feel pretty good about Gabon making that 14 playoff.
00:28:33
Speaker
Beyond that, there are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 teams on either 16 or 15 points in second. The current line is divided by two goals of goal differential.
00:28:44
Speaker
This is going to get wild. It's going to be really messy. I think you nailed it. We're going to have to look at all the matches very carefully in the pre-October run-up, and especially even after the first match, then really lock into the goal difference and scenarios.
00:29:00
Speaker
ah Surely there will be madness on the final day, scoreboard watching, goal difference watching. bad Bad time to be Cameroon. They're going to be in the thick of it. ah They better win twice or else it's going to be messy.
00:29:12
Speaker
um Yeah, this is going to be fun, and... Yeah, you better win twice and win by lot. Like goal differential is, I think, absolutely going to play a role here. So it's going to be super fun to watch and and we'll see what happens there. It's definitely worth touching on.
00:29:26
Speaker
All right, let's shift over to UEFA here a minute and let's start our UEFA section by talking about the teams that took care of business here and our teams that we're not really going to have to focus on.
European Teams' Performances in World Cup Qualifiers
00:29:36
Speaker
Switzerland,
00:29:37
Speaker
France, not so impressively. Spain, very impressively. Portugal, with three more for Cristiano Ronaldo. Norway, who bagged an 11-1 win. Belgium, who went 6-0 squared.
00:29:48
Speaker
England, with a 5-0 win against Serbia. That is actually pretty nice. And Croatia, who did not want to go to the Faroe Islands and only won 1-0, but it didn't matter. And then Austria, with a solid 2-1 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina.
00:30:00
Speaker
I think i mean it would be pretty surprising if any of these nine teams didn't top their groups and make the World Cup. Croatia, Czechia, Switzerland at Sweden, and then Belgium played North Macedonia and Wales. I think those are all interesting in October. Those are going to be tests, but you're certainly favoring the big teams here.
00:30:17
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. um Spain, as you mentioned, were were very, very impressive. 6-0 against a legit Turkey. like Turkey are a solid enough European team. Yeah, I think it's going to be hard to talk ourselves out of Spain as the favorites come next June, July.
00:30:35
Speaker
um France, sleepwalking. Yeah, France didn't. yeah The Iceland could have gone wrong for them. yeah They're fine. They're super talented. They're really good. When they lock in, they're good. They just don't lock in as much. that so The other teams, specifically Portugal, Belgium, England, they're your England, or they they're your European players.
00:30:55
Speaker
favorites that do that this. um And yeah, impressive all around. I think as as you mentioned, Austria kind of had a really good win second half pull away from Bosnia. Bosnia gave them a good game. That's a big result for them. And I know there's still more in that group.
00:31:09
Speaker
It's not sold for Austria, but you feel good about it. I think that to me out of any of these results was the most impressive. i suppose we also have to, yes, give credit to Switzerland who are uninspiring for now, but like this was good.
00:31:23
Speaker
Yeah, but they also didn't lose to Kosovo, which their biggest challenger in the group did, as we'll get on to in a second. And, you know, those types of things tend to make differences down the stretch. ah You mentioned Austria. They're actually still behind on Bosnia by one goal of goal differential, but they have a game in hand.
00:31:37
Speaker
And you know who that game in hand is against, Amit? It was against San Marino. And you know what's a great recipe for any goal differential issues? Yeah. San Marino. So Austria are, I think, in pretty good shape in that group. They'll still to play Bosnia again. They're not completely there.
00:31:52
Speaker
Those teams are all in varying degrees of completely there. I think Belgium is fairly interesting. Those are two tricky games in October. and And we'll see about Switzerland and Croatia. But yeah, you feel good about that.
00:32:02
Speaker
all right, I bet the big-ish teams that we're maybe not concerned about, but we need to talk about. Let's start with Germany. They look bad in a 2-0 loss away to Slovakia to open qualifying.
00:32:15
Speaker
They were not great in a 3-0 win over Northern Ireland, a 3-1 win, I should say, to right the ship. They have the Nations League bailout behind all of this. So worst case scenario, Germany are in a European playoff, which isn't a great place to be, but is obviously better than missing the World Cup.
00:32:30
Speaker
They have time to overturn a bad result against Slovakia, but I'm not exactly convinced about where they're at right now. And I think that it's a big picture thing more than necessarily the granular of World Cup. Yeah, that's what I was going to go to is that there's kind of just been – it's been a longstanding issue for Germany and they're standing among the European powers in that it's not quite as automatic, maybe better than Italy, but everyone else not as good. um And it doesn't make sense because the squad is is always full of talent everywhere.
00:33:01
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah, I think we have to watch watch it develop. I still think they should be fine, but the end of the playoff, we'll certainly even be more concerned.
00:33:12
Speaker
um I need to do do a little more investigating into what's going on sure exactly to why it's not working.
00:33:22
Speaker
I know we have high-profile moments at the Euros and at the World Cups where they kind of fall short over and over again. So certainly I think you... you kind of have to hold them less than your France's and England's and Spain's in terms of expectations, but it shouldn't be that way. So ah that is a larger discussion um that we'll have to see. Let's see if they get through who are their remaining kind of games against. Yeah, so in October, they play Luxembourg and Northern Ireland. I think the big one is, so the big thing to watch in this group is can Slovakia hold serve against everybody else?
00:33:56
Speaker
They did. It was kind of grimy, but it was one nil away against Luxembourg. If Slovakia holds serve against everybody else, they play a away to Germany on the final match day. That could be the decider to who goes direct to the World Cup and who goes to the playoffs.
00:34:08
Speaker
I think it's a lot to ask of Slovakia to hold serve, but they're going to probably go into that last match day with a chance of getting a result and making the World Cup. That's probably all you can ask for if you're in Sabaki's shoes.
00:34:20
Speaker
Denmark omit 0-0 home draw against Scotland, but I think they followed that up with a very impressive 3-0 win away over Greece. The rest of the group kind of a mess.
00:34:31
Speaker
Scotland had to had to labor to to get by Belarus in in the the second game. Greece smashed Belarus in the first game. Denmark are level on points with Scotland because of that draw, but they should be fine.
00:34:43
Speaker
Yeah, I think it'll be a good matchup between ah Denmark and Scotland again. Maybe Scotland can catch them. I mean, Denmark is fine. That's a good window. It's just a good window, and you take a 0-0 against Scotland. Scotland aren't going to outpoint you, and if they do, you still kind of have that in-your-back-pocket away trip there if you you need to get desperate.
00:35:06
Speaker
um I was kind of, you know, maybe Greece are a bit worse than I thought. Yeah, I had high hopes for them, particularly how well they played. And I know it's Belarus. I was expecting something from them in that Denmark game, and they just kind of got played off the pitch.
00:35:19
Speaker
Yeah, I think Denmark and Scotland are close, but um Denmark a little bit better. This is perhaps less intriguing than I was thinking as a group. Yeah. And the last team, let's let's talk about the Netherlands a minute because they had a 1-1 draw with Poland.
00:35:34
Speaker
he What a window for Matty Cash, scoring twice for Poland and reigniting the Robert Lewandowski lovers. And then the Netherlands played a super weird game against Lithuania where they blew a 2-0 lead and then won three two i'm I'm willing to just chalk this up to it's September. It's early in these guys' club season. Weird things can sometimes happen even in UEFA.
00:35:55
Speaker
But I think it deserves at least a mention here. Yeah, there's something. um The attacking talent is so, so good. And I think the defensive talent... But also includes Memphis Depay, Corinthians. Like, it's just weird how it all fits together. But yes, yeah I agreed on the overall talent. Yeah.
00:36:14
Speaker
The defensive talent is still good. um But things happen. I think... I'm not surprised that they, you know... Okay, they went down two against... or not went out They gave up two against Lithuania. Yeah.
00:36:29
Speaker
Surprise. The fact that they can put up three on ah on a dime and get the result, great. I think they dominated Poland in that game. They should have scored two or three and or four. Like that's what it comes down to. And that tweet though, right? Like every, like pulling, pull these results out.
00:36:45
Speaker
Look, they're not the 27th best national team in the world without a reason. all right But yeah, you're still backing Netherlands here, but this was a good window for Poland because I think they're in a comfortable spot to make second. And look, Poland,
00:37:00
Speaker
love themselves a grimy European playoffer. Nobody wants them to make the World Cup and they end up making the World And admit we're burying the lead in the UEFA section. I'm sorry for that. I probably should have done this in reverse, but it's easy to do the easy teams first and then get into the complicated teams.
00:37:14
Speaker
Italy get their own section. ah hit They're not in the I'm not concerned. They're not in the taking care of business. They are in the square on Italy section. It took lots of huffing and puffing, much more than it should have, but they beat Estonia 5-0 to open this window.
00:37:28
Speaker
Outward game was a lot closer than the 5-0 final result suggests. And then Amit... We got Israel four, Italy five. Which, what? What?
00:37:39
Speaker
Four goals from the 81st minute on. Italy scored two own goals. Moiskeen scored a brace. and you Make this make sense, please.
00:37:51
Speaker
I can't. I think Italy have an attacking problem that kind of, they put up 10 goals in two games. I know, yeah, like one attacking problem. We scored 10 times. Yeah. um the The four goals to Israel. No, we didn't score 10 times. We scored 12 because we also scored two own goals.
00:38:08
Speaker
Yeah, right. I was going to say the the four goals given up to Israel are more concerning. Yeah. but Israel kind of play a really relentless style to put pressure on your back line. Again, they put up two against Norway.
00:38:19
Speaker
They put four here. Some of that is bad bounces. And I think the fact that Italy survived those bad bounces in a game to get five is really, really impressive. And again, like the Tenali winner, like great scenes.
00:38:32
Speaker
Got to feel cathartic for them. i I think this was, at the end of the day, a very, very sigh of relief for Italy. like They're not fully cursed ah to survive a pretty bad first half against Estonia and a pretty dumb, bouncy game versus Israel.
00:38:51
Speaker
But it just goes to show, like, they are not above these things happening to them. Yeah, like, they were 4-2 up in the 81st minute, and it looked like they'd thrown it away, and that would have been, like, a bad curse. And to rescue that is good, but you're also not coming out of this window, like, ah, Italy are going to be fine.
00:39:06
Speaker
i mean, maybe. I agree. I certainly think if you're naming the the European powerhouses again, you'd probably have Netherlands above them, you'd probably have Belgium above them at this point, Germany above them, despite all of that, so...
00:39:21
Speaker
yeah, what are they? The 10th, 11th, 12th best team in the world? Like, it's going to be an uphill battle for this team to make a quarterfinal to... They need to first make the World Cup, and that's certainly what we're... Again, we're still talking about a best-case scenario here where they're making the playoff, right? Like, that was the thing that was in question. I don't think either of us are backing them to outpoint Norway or beat Norway down the stretch.
00:39:43
Speaker
Norway just keep beating up on bad teams. Like, 11-1 against Moldova, that was just not necessary. Early the morning played all 90 minutes. Yeah. And to, again, great for Italy to get the points. And I think in a playoff, they will be a favorite team, but let's say it's Italy, Poland.
00:39:59
Speaker
Yeah. Are you trusting them to like, not get weirded in a weird game? That's a, that's a weird thing. Yeah. Playoffs are weird things. Italy are so not immune to that.
00:40:10
Speaker
They're so susceptible to that. Um, Let's see. Like, this is 100% a team that could scrape by a dumb playoff and then go on a run to like a semifinal because they're Italy. right that's We've seen them do it major tournaments, but they also could very well like not be in the final field if things go poorly in that playoff.
00:40:29
Speaker
I think they did well to at least get there. Yeah, a bit if you liked watching Italy play Estonia and Israel, I've got great news for you. They're doing the exact same thing in October, just at different places. And Norway will host Israel. It's going a massive window for Israel. Any chance that they have to make the playoff, they're going to need to probably get something against Norway or beat Italy. Let's see.
00:40:48
Speaker
There's a lot of second place weirdness in UEFA. I don't think this is the podcast to necessarily touch on it, but just quickly running through some storylines. Sweden, a team that I think you and I, I surprised you with how good they were on the preview podcast.
00:40:59
Speaker
I lied to you a bit because they might not be that good because they blew two leads at home and drew 2-2 with Slovenia. And then they just straight up lost 2-0 to Kosovo, which should not be a thing that's happening.
00:41:10
Speaker
We'll talk about that, I think, on the October preview show. Ukraine, another team that I think we felt fairly good about finishing second place. They had a 1-1 draw against Azerbaijan. That's going to open the door for Iceland, who had a pretty good win that they smashed Azerbaijan, played well against a fairly disinterested France.
00:41:25
Speaker
Armenia beat Ireland 2-1 after the Irish had rallied for a 2-2 draw with Hungary. Second place in that group is going to get weird. Czechia aren't weird, but they're worth mentioning. They beat Montenegro That's what they needed.
00:41:35
Speaker
They're going to play Croatia. They already got smoked by Croatia the first time they played. Let's see what happens when they do that. Do you want to touch on any of these second place teams quickly? Czechia have the playoff run all over them. yeah ah Sweden, lots of attacking talent.
00:41:49
Speaker
Less good ah defensive talent. Nothing to add on Ukraine and Armenia or Ireland or Hungary or Iceland. um I certainly think there'll be a surprise in there somewhere from one of these Teams that we just mentioned, it's going to be fun in the future windows.
00:42:04
Speaker
All right, Amit, let's go to Connival, where we don't actually have a lot to talk about.
CONMEBOL and CONCACAF Qualifiers: Drama and Outcomes
00:42:08
Speaker
We do have a lot to talk about. We don't have a lot of games to talk about, though. Things were pretty much decided in Connival. There were some math that we had to take care of starting this window. That was easily taken care of by what we saw on the first match day.
00:42:21
Speaker
As we expected, Amit, Venezuela went to Argentina and lost. Bolivia went to Colombia and lost. We have to do this. This maybe isn't the spot to this. What a final home World Cup ballpark for Lionel Messi, huh?
00:42:33
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, again, we knew who was going to send himself off in the sunset, and that was... Befitting. Magisterial, to use the word ah you might use often about Lionel Messi. That was awesome.
00:42:46
Speaker
It was yeah insane. So those results set up the big Venezuela-Bolivia showdown on the last matchday. Uruguay beat Peru 3-0. Paraguay and Ecuador played out a very predictable nil-nil draw that sent Paraguay to the World Cup. And Brazil beat a listless Chile. So that set up what we had expected this whole time, Amit.
00:43:04
Speaker
Venezuela at home against Colombia, Bolivia at home against Brazil, Bolivia needing to win and have Venezuela not win. Any other combination of results was going to send Venezuela through to the intercontinental playoff.
00:43:17
Speaker
The pre-match scenes in both of these games were incredible. There were tears shed in national anthems, both stadiums full, one of them sitting at 4,000 meters of altitude, one of them in damp and sweaty Malturin, Venezuela.
00:43:30
Speaker
And amidst It looked like, we talked about this a lot on the preview show, Venezuela needed a fast start. They needed a good start. And what did they get? They got exactly that.
00:43:42
Speaker
Three minutes into this game, great holdup play from Solomon Rondon, we talked about. Tulasko Segovia, one of their most talented players, finishes. Three minutes in, Venezuela have the lead, and you think, all right, Colombia might not be super up for this.
00:43:54
Speaker
Venezuela are in a good spot. Then came a bad sign because even if Colombia weren't up for it, they were still going to be dangerous on set pieces. That's what they did. Booming Yeremia header. 1-1, 10 minutes in.
00:44:05
Speaker
But then basically straight off the kickoff, Venezuela took the lead back and went up 2-1 in this game with Josef Martinez finally doing something in this World Cup qualification cycle.
00:44:16
Speaker
He got to the ball first ahead of Meyer, the Colombian goalkeeper. Colombia protested. It didn't hold up. It was a 2-1 lead for Venezuela. They'd survived 12 minutes of craziness of it. It was all set up for Venezuela to do what they needed to do to make this intercontinental playoff.
00:44:31
Speaker
And then it just slowly but surely... rapidly unraveled. Yeah, they collapsed. They could not hold on to the lead.
00:44:42
Speaker
They gave up the goal pretty, pretty badly. and They just didn't mark in the box and they just didn't defend with numbers. For a team that's bad in defense, they would defend with like two guys or three guys poorly marking,
00:44:57
Speaker
three or four Colombian guys. And then once they were, and then it kept getting worse. They were down three, two. And then from there, they were very, very poorly equipped to chase the game, leaving a one or two guys back. And it turned into a training exercise, as you mentioned from the very top of the show, 60-year result.
00:45:14
Speaker
And it kind of just was a nightmare. It was everything that could have gone wrong for Venezuela went wrong before we even talk about the other game. They were kind of banking on Columbia not trying yeah after they got the lead. And once that didn't happen, they just were not equipped, I think, to defend Columbia in space.
00:45:34
Speaker
I don't know what their plan was for defending Columbia in space because it was not how you defend a team better than you. You know how you defend a team better than you is you yeah sit back and bunker and make it really, really hard to give them anything.
00:45:45
Speaker
And instead, Columbia, who brought, again... Good attackers, right? Luis Diaz on the left wing. James Rodriguez on the right wing. Just had acres of space every time.
00:45:57
Speaker
And what happens when you give good players space? Luis Suarez happens. He scored four goals in the game. Not that Luis Suarez. And he's a he's a pedestrian striker. Again, yeah better better than what a lot of countries have got, certainly.
00:46:11
Speaker
But Luis Suarez is not one of the the best strikers in CONVABOL. And he made Venezuela look like the training ground. yeah He was just like standing in the box. and He was like, oh, look, it's a tap in.
00:46:22
Speaker
How many? yeah So so we'll talk about i want we'll talk about Bolivia here in a second. But I think the moment that really encapsulated this game for me was Venezuela are 5-2.
00:46:34
Speaker
No, what were they at this point? Yeah, they're 5-2 down in this game. They've given up four goals to Suarez. It's just spun completely out of control. And then all of a sudden, Solomon Renone pops up and scores to make it 5-3.
00:46:46
Speaker
And there's still 15 minutes left. Renone sprints to the goal. He picks up the ball. he runs it back to midfield. You're like... all right, you know, there might be something here. They win the ball back on the kickoff. They take it into the Colombian area.
00:46:58
Speaker
They create kind of this half chance. And then Colombia just go like seven on two the other way and score to make it 6-3. And you're like, ah, yes, the miracle is not happening.
00:47:11
Speaker
Venezuela just... They were playing on belief, truly. They were like, this is going to be our miracle day. This is going to be our day. We're just going to attack with intensity and win. And they forgot the part where winning involved keeping Columbia to less goals than them.
00:47:26
Speaker
I don't think they ever truly like considered that possibility. I don't blame them um because they were, I don't know, they maybe their best chance of winning this game was like 0-0 and scoring late.
00:47:37
Speaker
But the fact as soon as Columbia was engaged from the start, They had the wrong plan. I think that's like the best way to put it. They were just open time and time again. to work While all of this all of this is happening in Maturin, we've got this surreal scene of Bolivia fighting for their best World Cup qualification result since they last made the World Cup in 1994.
00:48:00
Speaker
They're in El Alto. They're playing against Brazil. It's a heavily rotated Brazil. You've got legendary manager Carlo Ancelotti, who said all of the right things in the buildup, right? He was like, I've never been to Bolivia. I'm excited to go to Bolivia.
00:48:12
Speaker
I've never played a World Cup qualifier at altitude. I've never done any of this. This is going to be really interesting. And I think it probably took Carlo Ancelotti like five. So again, when you go to Bolivia, here's here's how this happens.
00:48:24
Speaker
You fly into the Bolivian capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, which is at sea level the day before the game. You stay in a hotel in Santa Cruz de la Sierra for as long as you possibly can. And then with kickoff scheduled for 830, you take a four o'clock flight from Santa Cruz de la Sierra to La Paz, bus to the stadium, with the goal being to spend as little time in the altitude as possible so that it has the least amount of effect on you.
00:48:46
Speaker
And at some point in all of this process, I think Carlo Ancelotti just kind of looked at himself and was like, all right, sure, we're here. Let's do it. None of this matters to us. We're fine. We're going to the World Cup. I'm feeling pretty good. We just beat Chile.
00:49:00
Speaker
And he spent the entire 90 minutes of it with just this bemused look on his face, chewing his gum, which I don't think he ever does because that's what you do. You go to the altitude and they always say ah, chew the gum. You'll be fine. Just chew gum. And he just got this bemused look on him.
00:49:13
Speaker
And there is this ragtag group of Bolivian players who are nowhere near in talent to what Brazil can match. And they're just working their guts off and they're firing shots from everywhere. They're not getting particularly close. The Brazilian goalkeeper is making all these saves.
00:49:29
Speaker
And then they get all of the news coming in from Venezuela where it looked like, oh, this is going to be a nightmare. oh this might work out. And the game is where they need it to be. And admit they get this. It has to be said, a phantom penalty.
00:49:42
Speaker
very little contact in the box, a VAR penalty, and their man, Miguelito Tercero, steps up, strikes it with the left foot, and scores right before halftime. So they go into halftime a minute, and they're getting the results that they need. At this point, the Colombia-Venezuela game hadn't quite spiraled out of control, but Bolivia knew, hey, if we hang on to this 1-0 result, we've got a chance.
00:50:03
Speaker
And gosh darn it if they hung on to that result. And there was a pretty scary moment, Amit, when Carlo Ancelotti looked at his bench and said, ah, I've got Esteval. Ah, I've got Rafinha. Let's see what these guys can do for 30 minutes in the thin air of El Alto.
00:50:18
Speaker
But they couldn't get it past Bolivia. And Bolivia hung on to a 1-0 result. They're heading to intercon in a playoff. This was just a surreal moment all around because you've got 6-3 happening on one screen. You've got thin air pot shots happening on the other. And it I don't know. i just can't i can't get over how great this was.
00:50:37
Speaker
It was, it was, as you described, surreal is the best way to put it. And again, I had Venezuela's stocks. I really wanted them to qualify. And I cannot stress how utterly disappointing this window was, especially because the Bolivia goal came from, as you said yourself, a phantom penalty.
00:50:55
Speaker
But that aside, you just have to give Bolivia credit for the whole cycle for this El Alto, like impossible home field advantage. Yeah. i Even if Brazil wanted a result in this game, I'm not sure they could have got it.
00:51:08
Speaker
Like, as you said, Ancelotti turned to his bench and he brought on just, like, five ringers, right? Esteval, Joe Pedro, Rafinha. And he's like, guys, go go win the game. And Brazil would win the ball because Bolivia tried to, like, dribble past them and they were worse.
00:51:24
Speaker
Or they'd get down the field because they're fast and then give the ball back. But Brazil would just... They couldn't pull off any attacking moves that they thought they could do because of the altitude and field.
00:51:35
Speaker
And because if they ever got anything resembling a sliver of field advantage, they were hacked down immediately. And they were just like, so you know what we're going to do? We're just going to kind of walk it towards the box, cross it speculatively, and get the ball back and do it again.
00:51:51
Speaker
They were uninterested. And... All of this confluence of factors, including, again, phantom penalty, miraculously have handed Bolivia the greatest moment in 30 years.
00:52:03
Speaker
this was This was ridiculous. This was ridiculous. Truly ridiculous. and well was But to to to be fair, all Venezuela had to do was not let it happen. And they left the door open, and Bolivia defended a one-goal lead for the second half against Brazil. like That did they didn't happen like automatically. this was This was just silly and dumb and beautiful.
00:52:22
Speaker
And there was very clear inexperience from Brazil, right? Like a lot of these Brazilian players didn't spend a lot of time playing in South America, so they didn't get the experience of what it's like to go play in the altitude. And so there's these moments where...
00:52:35
Speaker
If Bolivia are put in the same moment, what are they doing? They're turning and they're ripping a shot and they're seeing what happens. And Brazil players would get the ball and they'd have this sliver of space but you could take up one touch and just yam it. And they didn't shoot it because that's not how they're taught to play because that is generally a bad decision. You don't just settle for 25-yard shots.
00:52:51
Speaker
But Brazil could have used a little bit more of that in this game. And again, they weren't particularly interested. like They tried to their credit. like It wasn't like Brazil just rolled over here. But they also didn't bring the effort that I think Colombia brought to Mazarim.
00:53:03
Speaker
and that just got Brazil into this. And there was also a moment in this game, Amit, where Bolivia are up 1-0. You know that a second goal probably puts it away. I think this is probably like the 80th, 82nd minute.
00:53:16
Speaker
And they get a corner, and they send all their guys up, and all of a sudden, Brazil are 2-1-1 back the other way. And Luis Hakeem, their center back, has to make this great challenge to the night. What you doing? You cannot let that happen in this moment. And also Bolivian ball boys just non-existent on this evening until any time Brazil were trying to attack in which a second ball just got chucked onto the pitch.
00:53:39
Speaker
Yeah, there was some dark arts at their highest. And the reason why they sent back is because Esteval had like a 20-yard head start on a potential two-on-one.
00:53:50
Speaker
And it didn't matter. Even he was a sub. Bolivia caught up because he didn't expect ah the thin air to slow down so much. It was glorious. And the scenes were certainly incredible at the final whistle for Bolivia. And the great, great crowd in El Alto.
00:54:06
Speaker
ah This is just this is South American scenes at its finest. We'll talk about Bolivia in the intercontinental playoff. I think we're both fairly concerned for Bolivia in the intercontinental playoff, but that's a discussion for another day.
00:54:18
Speaker
Let's close out the show, Amit, by talking about CONCACAF. And this was chaos from the start. and like The only thing that we can take away from this window is I think it was a good window for Jamaica, who won twice and were team that we weren't super confident about coming into this window.
00:54:34
Speaker
They took care of business against Bermuda. They took care business against Trinidad and Tobago. Everything else in CONCACAF is just a giant blender. I don't even know where to start here. I don't either. This was crazy. And I think you saw Jamaica benefit from the weakness of Trinidad, um Tobago, and Bermuda.
00:54:53
Speaker
Six points. Curacao are two points behind. Like, they're going to make that interesting. But credit to them for, i think, the overall easiest group in terms of four teams. The other two were, we could pick either one to start with. This is just bonkers.
00:55:06
Speaker
Yeah, let's start in group A. let's let's Let's go alphabetical here. Panama, who are the team that I think we felt most confident about, had an okay window. It's not the window they were looking for. I think that much is is certain.
00:55:19
Speaker
But there's still a lot to talk about here. Great window for Suriname, who are on four points. Everybody had up and down moments in this window, it felt like, right? Like, I think Suriname probably had the most overall positive, and then draw home against Panama, a 2-1 win against El Salvador.
00:55:35
Speaker
El Salvador beat Guatemala away, which was good, and then they lost at home to Suriname, which was less good. Guatemala had that home loss against El Salvador, but then got a point away to Panama. Panama come out of this, I think, okay, but with a lot of pressure going to October.
00:55:52
Speaker
Yeah, this is interesting to just think about our preview show for this region with John Arnold and The pressure, he was saying, what the one thing that could kind of get to Panama is the pressure. And this window was not what they needed.
00:56:05
Speaker
They're not front runners anymore. They're going to have to be up against it. And, I mean, I'm very impressed with Suriname. Again, this is a team that I thought could hang. And, you know, I still think there's going to be – it's not going to be easy. But they put themselves in a ah just a nose ahead at four points after two games.
00:56:25
Speaker
They can play, right? these were These were good results. Again, they're going be able to do it every game, but like that result against Panama shows like they can kind of run. And the issue with all of these teams in all 12 is that there are not many match winners.
00:56:40
Speaker
It's hard to to do that consistently. You might get in one game. You might get a heater of all heaters, as we talk about in Group C. um But right like you you might have said Panama and Guatemala are better than the Suriname, but how are they going to to do it?
00:56:55
Speaker
what What was wrong with Guatemala? Like, not not great performances. And Panama, I understand a little bit, but like, it's frustrating.
00:57:06
Speaker
Yeah, and the the big overall takeaway here from Cock Caff is, I think, to your point about the lack of match winners, is anything can happen here. And that's great. That makes for a lot of great drama. It makes for bad forecasting. But we're not in the forecasting business. We're in the drama business here, right?
00:57:19
Speaker
So sign me up for more of this in October. I'm i'm very, very excited for it. Quickly on group B, Amit, we touched on Jamaica already. 4-0 away against Bermuda, 2-0 at home against Trinidad and Tobago.
00:57:30
Speaker
Levi Garcia had three goals chopped off in this game. They were all rightfully chopped off, but it was just a funny anecdote from that. Curacao, a 0-0 win away against Trinidad, a 0-0 draw. It doesn't count as a win, but it was a decent enough result.
00:57:45
Speaker
And then somehow out of nowhere, they blew a 2-0 lead against Bermuda and were 2-2 against Bermuda going down the stretch, but did win this game 3-2. They are well positioned, Amit, and have a big home game against Jamaica to open the October window.
00:57:58
Speaker
This group, out of all of them, I think of the three is where we can feel like, okay, serve has generally been held here. Maybe Curacao could have beaten Trinidad and Tobago away, but things are generally kind of what we expected.
00:58:11
Speaker
Yeah, agreed. That would have been nice. And then Jamaica can kind of bring that play for the point mentality in the next window. But I think Curacao will take it. And then in the last group here group C, um but again, it's more of the same where there's positives and negatives for just about everybody here.
00:58:29
Speaker
Honduras and 0-0 draw with Haiti at a neutral site and then a 2-0 win at home against Nicaragua. Costa Rica, a pair of draws. Another favorite, just like Panama, with a pair of draws.
00:58:39
Speaker
1-1 away against Nicaragua, where they were pegged back. And then a wild 3-3 game against Haiti, who also picked up a pair of draws. I think we have to start here with Haiti, and we should probably just start with the Duckins-Dazan hot streak that you alluded to.
00:58:54
Speaker
it's been an hour of podcasting, and we finally got to Duckins-Dazan. But ah this was this was crazy, and we we went in order for, you know, we had a lot to cover. This was ridiculous. CONCACAF after dark on Tuesday night after the whole window, just serving up one last dessert.
00:59:12
Speaker
A bike for the equalizer at 2-2. Then they went and scored ah to go 3-2 and then gave it up immediately because they can't defend any crosses. Haiti...
00:59:24
Speaker
Haiti are like good sometimes. You watch them but they're like, oh my gosh, like they they they could surprise. And then you're like, oh, they can't defend at all. And sometimes they can't score at all. And to touch on the 0-0 against Honduras at home, I'm putting in air quotes, which was played Curacao.
00:59:41
Speaker
They looked super, that game was super boring, super insipid. But this is exactly, to your point, anything can happen. I think that is just a fair way to put it. Like, I can't describe Costa Rica-Haiti other than 90 minutes of just, like, Twilight Zone soccer. Costa Rica scored in the first minute, right? Like, yeah they kicked off and they scored and you're like, ah, sorry, Costa Rica. yeah and And again, that's to the point where, like,
01:00:02
Speaker
Is Costa Rica a better team than Haiti? Yes. Is Panama better team than Srinam? Yes. Are they good enough to like exert 90 minutes of winning soccer? No, because it's hard in CONCACAF. It's hard. i think that's ah i think that's a fair point, but also if you're 2-0 up at halftime, got to see it out. like You just do, right?
01:00:23
Speaker
Yeah, and and certainly, again... were yeah was anyone Did anyone have Duckins-Nizan bike equalizer on the bingo card? i mean, at some point, we'll hopefully get a deep dive on him from from John or on Twitter. Like, ah like this guy is ah is a substitute striker for Haiti, and he comes on and scores a World Cup qualifying hat trick.
01:00:43
Speaker
Like, he's Cristiano Ronaldo. Like, it's Yeah. And this group then, I mean, just is finally poised kind of like we expected. Again, the results on paper aren't terrible from Costa Rica, but I think I feel worse about Costa Rica than I do about Panama because they gave up winning positions in both of these matches.
01:01:02
Speaker
ah You see those out, and man, you're on six points, and you're looking really, really good. And now you're in the muck and the grime of CONCACAF, and next up you're going to Tegucigalpa to goosey galuppa the play Honduras. you have maybe your only easy match at home against Nicaragua. Like this is going to be a grind and there are teams that can make life hard for them.
01:01:22
Speaker
And it's going to be a fun watch down the stretch. How are we feeling about Honduras here? Cause they're the team that are in first place in this group at this point. they've just got to be really pleased at the draw ah with Costa Rica, Haiti. It sets them up in a, a really dangerous spot to get that home match against Costa Rica and potentially really ah get an auto spot, right? Like play for the draw and complicate things or win it and put yourself in really good shape.
01:01:50
Speaker
I think you just, you go into that match understanding you've got some house money at home and play solid. Don't be dumb, but like you can go for it too. Like, They're a big benefiter. Specifically, Suriname and Honduras have to feel great about these windows.
01:02:05
Speaker
And Panama and Costa Rica, I think, are going to... Again, good teams. I think we we think they're the better teams. We're going to maybe back them. We're going to talk about that more in October. But a lot of pressure and lot of high stakes now coming in CONCACAF.
01:02:19
Speaker
I think this is this is a ah fun format in that sense. like Honduras are fine. I don't know. I think Nicaragua is... they're better than Trinidad and Tobago and Bermuda.
01:02:34
Speaker
I don't think they're better than Guatemala. Yeah. I think that's it. So like, I think that's why Honduras got those points. I think Costa Rica and Haiti should now all have a ton of pressure to mop up Nicaragua. You don't, you're in trouble.
01:02:48
Speaker
and that kind of sets up big matches between the three. Um, so I, I, I certainly there's some of it that if you think about it that way, Honduras just had the favorable schedule, but like you take it, right? So I think it'll be interesting. And again,
01:03:04
Speaker
Honduras-Haiti is is this a fair indicator of what can happen when those two middling teams play each other. Really nothing happened to that game. It was it was pretty grim. And then Costa Rica-Haiti is a fair representation of what can happen when CONCACAF breaks out. And that's why we love this confederation. And we love World Cup qualifying.
01:03:21
Speaker
And we love breaking it down for more than an hour on our recap shows. You know the best news about all of this, Amit? We're less than a month from doing it all again. Running it back in October. Put them out on the field again and let's see what happens with the stakes somehow going even higher in all of these matches.
01:03:37
Speaker
It's what we're looking forward to. That's going to do it for us on this edition of the World Cup After Dark Podcast. If you like what you what we do and if you would like to support us, you can do so at patreon.com slash WCAD.
01:03:49
Speaker
For $3 a month, you get access to subscriber-only shows and the World Cup qualification master spreadsheet, which has every single game listed of World Cup qualifying. It's got cute, good-looking tables with flags and such, a track for all the teams who qualified for World Cup, all teams have qualified for the Intercontinental It is a very handy tool if you want to make the most of your international window, and you can do that by becoming one of our patrons. All right, a minute let's do this again in October. Sound good to you?
01:04:17
Speaker
It's getting better and better. It keeps delivering. How could you not want to come back after what we just had? All right, guys. We'll talk to you in a bit. Thanks as always.