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WCAD 3-32: Six More Tickets Punched, Trouble for Italy
63 Plays17 days ago
Austin and Amit recap June's World Cup Qualifyihg, with six teams earning World Cup Spots. The guys break down the action from Asia, including historic berths for Uzbekistan and Jordan and heartbreak for Palestine. The guys then evaluate Italy's rough start and bask in Belgium's drama. Then, they look at the fight for seventh in CONMEBOL and recap the action from CONCACAF.
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Transcript
Introduction to World Cup 2026
00:00:01
Speaker
We are now officially less than one year away from the World Cup in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. And the field is starting to take shape. Here in this June window, we added six more teams to the World Cup field.
00:00:14
Speaker
Thirteen teams have already qualified. We're almost one-third of the way there. But there's still plenty of action yet to come, and there's plenty of action to break down. And that's what you're here for.
Host Introductions and New Team Announcements
00:00:24
Speaker
This is the World Cup After Dark Podcast. My name is Austin Miller.
00:00:27
Speaker
On the other side is Amit Malik. Amit, more teams added to the list. The year away countdown has started.
Growing Public Interest in World Cup
00:00:35
Speaker
We didn't maybe get as much drama as we could have here in June, but it's all starting to come together.
00:00:41
Speaker
And perhaps most importantly, Amit, all the normal people are starting to notice.
Current Buzz in Soccer and World Cup Developments
00:00:46
Speaker
That's right. we we We're definitely making waves in the World Cup community. As I mentioned on the preview pod, there's just a lot going on. I think everyone's heads are spinning in the soccer space.
00:00:57
Speaker
And now the World Cup the world cup Field itself is part of that. So it's super exciting. You can feel the buzz. My head's spinning a little bit. We have you you know so many things going on, real spots. Now we're talking about you know teams in the field.
00:01:11
Speaker
I saw some a lot of articles out there like ranking the possible teams. I'm like, we're not even there. But you know what? I love it. you know It's time to start. yeah know It's so tangible. That's what makes this so exciting.
00:01:22
Speaker
I feel for the people who are just joining this ship now, though, because they've missed lots of drama along the way. But if you are just joining, we're happy to have you. And we're going to have a great run to the finish here in September, October,
Recap of June Qualifiers and Surprises
00:01:33
Speaker
and November. On today's show, we're going to break down everything that we saw in June. We're going to talk about the teams that we saw qualify. We're going to talk about a lot of the teams who went home at the end of this window. And we're going to look ahead to what is to come down the stretch. As I said, amid six teams...
00:01:48
Speaker
added to the field in this window. Congratulations to Uzbekistan, South Korea, Jordan, Australia, Brazil, and Ecuador. What an eclectic mix of teams there, right? You've got Brazil and South Korea teams that we expected to qualify, Australia and Ecuador teams that were also expected to qualify, but still are deserving credit. And Uzbekistan and Jordan, two teams that will be making their World Cup debuts.
00:02:07
Speaker
ah but Let's start our recap of everything that we saw in June in Asia.
Asian Qualifiers Drama and Outcomes
00:02:12
Speaker
And things here pretty much went to plan, at least the plan that we had coming into this window.
00:02:18
Speaker
Maybe not the plan that we had when we started the third round of Asian qualifying, but what we expected to happen largely did here in Asia. Very little last day drama. It was all settled early, although we did have some drama on the last day. We'll get to that in a second.
00:02:31
Speaker
However, some surprises overall in Asia qualifying, as we mentioned, Jordan making it to the World Cup. Qatar and Saudi Arabia not making it to the World Cup at this moment, but obviously still having a chance. But Sturt and Group A admit with a nil-nil draw between the UAE and Uzbekistan.
00:02:47
Speaker
This match, we nailed it. We don't nail a lot of things. We nail a lot of things on the World Cup After Dark podcast. We don't nail everything. This match, we nailed it. Uzbekistan, you could tell they were playing for a World Cup spot. They were slimy. They were grimy. They got it done.
00:03:01
Speaker
ah Utakur, Yusupov with a couple of good saves. UAE created a little bit, not a ton. Uzbekistan weren't really interested in creating because they didn't have to. They had four shots. They didn't get any on target. They hit the crossbar once.
00:03:14
Speaker
This was the result that they needed at this exact moment. It's also not indicative of what Uzbekistan can do in a general sense at the World Cup. 100%, they set themselves up to play for the point, as we talked about.
00:03:27
Speaker
And I think we did even mention there could be, you know, they got a little comfortable and in the and the dying moment there was just a little bit of that flash of UAE forcing a good save.
00:03:38
Speaker
And that could have been the chaos we we needed for the last day. But at the end of the day, I think, well, to your point, like, we know Uzbekistan has it in them. What has gotten them here and over some of the teams that we thought were maybe ahead of them and and that are having to go on the next round, as we'll talk about, is they just understood the assignment and were so committed to to being the grimy team that that gets you points, that gets you through World Cup cycles.
00:04:03
Speaker
They were just super resilient. um
Defensive Prowess in Asian Teams
00:04:07
Speaker
And I think ah in Asia, right, if you can really have that solid physical defense, make it tough, because those teams you know't like to play with the ball, they just don't give you an inch of space. they It's really hard to create chances on them.
00:04:20
Speaker
Yeah, we could have liked if they went a little bit more going forward, but at the end of the day, like, that's what it was. Just just don't give UAE anything easy. UAE had to really belabor every chances. They still could have been undone, certainly, right? Like, it's, you know, result bias, but...
00:04:36
Speaker
Credit to Uzbekistan. I think both of us are just really excited um to have ah this fun of a story and a team this solid in the field. they're they're They're not ah you know just you know happy to be there for sure.
00:04:49
Speaker
for sure Yeah, and this is something that's a long time coming for Uzbekistan. There were a couple of really good articles. I read one in in The Athletic that kind of capsulated all of the times Uzbekistan got really close. They had a very controversial Asian playoff a couple of cycles back against Bahrain.
00:05:04
Speaker
They had an opportunity to beat South Korea at home a couple of cycles back and make the World Cup, and they weren't able to pull it off. And so the fact that Uzbekistan were able to do it this time around is good. Some of this is due to the field expanding, but also Uzbekistan had the field been at 32 and used the exact same qualification format. They would have been one of the Asian teams to make it, and they're deserving of credit of that.
00:05:25
Speaker
I think it's also not insignificant here a bit that Uzbekistan went back to Tashkent and beat Qatar 3-0 on the last day when there wasn't all of the pressure and the tension of
Jordan's Unexpected Success
00:05:34
Speaker
making the World Cup.
00:05:35
Speaker
They went and they outplayed an independently uninterested Qatar side. But again, when are Qatar not uninterested? That's just their natural state at this point. So I think that speaks to how good they can be when they want to be. Look, they lost one match this entire qualification cycle, and it was a 3-2 loss away to Qatar on a 90 plus 12 goal that probably shouldn't have happened.
00:05:55
Speaker
That speaks to how good they've been. They haven't been drilling in attack, but they have players. They have high-level players that that can make you a threat. And they are a team, like pretty much every team at the World Cup, that you're going to be able to talk yourself into a positive situation. so they are well-deserving of their spot.
00:06:10
Speaker
That wrapped up things in Group A. The UAE and Qatar are through. We'll talk about the next round of Asian qualifying at the end of the Asia segment. but that's how that group finished up. In Group B, Amit, Jordan were 3-0 winners over Oman on Thursday to seal their spot at the World Cup. And Ali Oman hat trick, he got the first on a pretty soft but admittedly unintelligent penalty from the Oman defense.
00:06:31
Speaker
Second and third on fine finishes to wrap things up. Amit, Jordan are going to be, up for a lot of people, I think the poster case of World Cup expansion. There's going lot of people surprised to see Jordan in the field. They're not going to be highly thought of when we get to power ranking the 48 teams at the World Cup.
00:06:45
Speaker
They're going to be 40-something on that list, but they were runners-up at the last Asian Cup. They have decent attacking players, as they showed throughout qualification, and they're deserving of the spot, took advantage of a promising draw, but somebody was going to be able to do that in Asia, and that was them.
00:07:01
Speaker
I think when we looked at this group, ah this stage and this group at the start, we pegged Jordan Iraq as one of the battles to watch. I think I remember saying, like, I thought Iraq would would be a touch better.
00:07:13
Speaker
And you know what? Jordan was ah even slightly more than a touch better. I think they. So it's interesting, right? You mentioned that Iraq were actually a Iraq beat Jordan on the last day in a match that didn't matter. And they do.
00:07:25
Speaker
Jordan took care of business and Iraq didn't. And that was the difference here. And sometimes that's what the qualification comes down to. Yeah, it's not necessarily about the head-to-head between the two teams. It's about, can you get the points more consistently?
00:07:36
Speaker
And exactly to your point about why Jordan is worth thinking about, worth considering seriously, their attacking players were were more reliable. They just have more of them that can do things.
00:07:46
Speaker
They're very solid with the ball. Again, when we get to the time projecting, it's, you know, we're going to, contextualize that appropriately. But as you mentioned, right, runners up at the Asian cup in 2024, this is a, this is a well-seasoned team and, you know, kind of looking at the talent, I thought on talent, maybe they're little worse, but they really surprised me with their consistency and they just, they're very patterned
South Korea's Qualification Journey
00:08:11
Speaker
attacking soccer, very well managed also.
00:08:15
Speaker
And I think that's just how you get through this, this kind of thing. yeah, Full credit. and And sure, I know you say poster child for expansion, but like those those are things we like, right? I'm very happy to course see Jordan here. yeah and And look, like I said, I think the thing that differentiates them from the other teams in their maybe class of Asia, if you will, right? The Omans, that are arise the the UAEs of the world yeah is Jordan have, I think, a bit more in attack, right? We saw OJ1 score the hat trick here. We've seen Altamaru. We've seen Al Maimant.
00:08:45
Speaker
Those players, I think, give them just that slight edge over those teams that are around them. And they also bring the defensive stability that those teams bring to the table. A hundred percent. And defending in numbers, but specifically on those players you named, they're just at that level where like, if you leave them one-on-one, if you give them that space, they're going to, they're going to do something. They're going to put the defense on the pressure. They're going to get good shots um from distance. We saw that in this qualifying. We saw that in the run in Asia.
00:09:12
Speaker
It's exactly what you said. It's just a little bit more. And that's what separates you to being in a spot and those other teams are either home or in the next round. And they did it by one point over Iraq. And at the end of the day, that was the point that they needed. Iraq were 2-0 losers to South Korea in front of another fantastic crowd in Basra, Iraq.
00:09:29
Speaker
This match was really conditioned by the fact that Iraq had a player sent off in the opening half hour. Generally, feet to face is is not a good recipe. And that's unfortunately what the Iraqi player did. And that really conditioned this match. South Korea were better.
00:09:42
Speaker
It wasn't a terribly impressive qualification cycle from South Korea, Amit, but they were all over Iraq when they needed to be in this match. Kim Jin-yu finally had the breakthrough in the 63rd minute, and then they counted for the second from Oh Yoon-woo in the 82nd minute.
00:09:57
Speaker
You and I are not particularly impressed with South Korea. They had the whole Jurgen Klinsmann thing that happened during this qualification Asian Cup cycle. they have obviously moved on from that. But to their credit, they've made 11 straight World Cups.
00:10:09
Speaker
However, they've never made it past the round of 16 at a World Cup that didn't happen on home soil. Is this the year they make the jump? I think you and I both kind of say probably not. I think we say that probably not based on the vibes and the overall talent. They're attacking talent. They they have some really great players at big clubs. You know them.
00:10:27
Speaker
They're defensive talent. they you know they They also have some players at big clubs. But I just think That's what's going to hurt them in the way they play. Like, yes, they use the ball and yes, they have good attackers, but they can't rest control of a match and they can't kind of ah lock into the biggest matches to you know speak vernacularly like...
00:10:46
Speaker
that's That's what plagues them. The managing has been an issue. And at the end of the day, I think one thing we'd love to think about is what are the profiles of teams that make a run at these? We'd like to say this is a potential quarterfinal. This is a round of 16 team.
00:10:59
Speaker
They just don't have those ways to beat you in a tough scenario to get that tough result to, you know, Imagine the type of team you have to beat to make a round of 16 in a one-off match.
00:11:12
Speaker
Can anyone do that? Right? Like, can Korea do it? A hundred percent they can. But are we going to back them to, to, to have a puncher's chance chance? Like if you want to, you know, put the numbers of the numbers.
00:11:24
Speaker
No, we don't, we don't think that because of all those reasons. And, and also like, you know, they're truly, they're, they're, they're hero. They're savior. Sun Heung Min is on the wrong side of the Asian curve, aging curve.
00:11:36
Speaker
And I just think their, their successes in those group cups we saw in the last world cups. I think ah they're not catching anyone by surprise, right? They kind of got Germany twice by like the end of the game.
00:11:49
Speaker
No one's, no one's seeing Korea and being like, Oh, we're going to get caught up by Korea. just, You just take them seriously and you put them under a lot of pressure. So that's that's also, they also lacked, I think a bit of the killer instinct in this club.
00:12:04
Speaker
They didn't lose a single match in this group stage, but they drew four times and they drew four times against teams. They probably should have been drawing against, right? They drew one, one at home against Jordan. They drew one, one at home against Oman. They drew nil, nil at home against Palestine.
00:12:17
Speaker
They just lack that next level to put teams away, which again, maybe that doesn't carry over to the World Cup in a year, but I think it's a bit of ah a worrying
Oman-Palestine Dramatic Qualifier
00:12:25
Speaker
sign. I mean, I mentioned that there wasn't a ton of last day drama in Asia.
00:12:28
Speaker
That's because it all got cooked up into one pot and thrown into Oman, Palestine, which I think had the saddest scenes of World Cup qualifying so far. Palestine needed to win this match based on the results on the first match day. Omen, as we mentioned previously, got smashed by Jordan.
00:12:45
Speaker
Palestine were able to hang on for a win against Kuwait. That set up this one-off match for advancement to the next round of Asian qualifying. Palestine were 2-0 winners in that match against Kuwait, but were holding on at the end and got a penalty to make it too i And in this match, Palestine controlled it, but not in a super impressive way. They created a lot of set pieces. At one point minute, we mentioned, all right, can Palestine make one corner routine work? And that's exactly what they did. A near post corner that was headed by Ode Karub set off the celebrations early in the second half, but there was a lot of time to defend.
00:13:17
Speaker
Owan went down to 10 men in the 73rd minute for a second yellow card. And then Palestine admit they almost got over the line. They defended doggedly. Oman took a lot of bad shots. Oman are just not very good.
00:13:29
Speaker
And so Palestine gave them room to shoot. and It was like, if we're going to get beat on a shot, we're going get beat on a shot. And they weren't going to get beat on a shot. And then this lazy far post cross gets sent in and there's just an absolute nothing of a penalty. It's a tug on the shoulder from a Palestine defender.
00:13:44
Speaker
It's unnecessary contact. It's contact. There was also no chance of anything dangerous happening from this play. Unfortunately, the official pointed to the spot penalty for Oman and they scored.
00:13:55
Speaker
Issam Al-Sabi scored in the 90th plus 70, 90 plus seven minutes. And that sent Palestine home with a one run result. I don't think we've seen anybody as gutted as Palestine were by this result. It felt like even the Oman players felt kind of bad about what they did.
00:14:11
Speaker
They did. The way they're like and so consoling the Palestine players after the field. I mean, you could you could just see the dejection, the heartbreak. And we were kind of saying like this felt worse than like a major final loss yeah that you've seen in the scenes.
00:14:25
Speaker
it It wasn't just that they lost and, it it you know, it you meant so much them. It was the way it happened with that nothing burger penalty. You described it perfectly. And really Oman had, had nothing here for 90 minutes. They, like you said, bad at shooting.
00:14:40
Speaker
Palestine had the whole thing under control. Yes. When Oman went to 10, should they have found a second and, and really, you know, put this out of reach? Sure. But they did it. They did. They did 99% of, of what they needed.
00:14:54
Speaker
And that's, In the worst way, that's the World Cup after dark qualifying that just haunts you and haunts Halstein. Yeah, I mean, like... the The emotion is like, what's so real about this cycle? and Like, this was to get fourth place just to get in the next round. In the next round in which they would not have been favored to advance at all. no But it was it was just a dream.
00:15:19
Speaker
Exactly. It's just about keeping that dream alive. And for all the reasons that that mattered to Hal Stein and those players, and they're not even playing at home. And the crowd was... it It stinks. like Truly, this is one of the more stinging scenes that we've seen in in World Cup qualifying and national teams.
00:15:37
Speaker
um It was brutal. And yeah, the way Oman was almost sheepish about it, it was... you know, they, they wanted to get to the next round too. You can't be like, Oman should have followed or rolled over for them. That's, that's not fun, but yeah, man, that's a, that, that that was some, some really tough scenes and like, yeah, fourth, fourth place just in the group stage.
00:16:00
Speaker
It matters. It matters. Yeah. Oman also are just like tremendously boring as it's Yeah, they got nothing. Yeah. Look, I'm not like Palestine. It's not like Palestine are playing, reinventing how to play modern football, but they do the dogged defending thing.
00:16:14
Speaker
And that is slightly more fun than what Oman did. They got that positive result at at South Korea early on in World Cup qualifying. Yeah. And again, that's not to say that, I don't know, Oman were slightly better over the course of this world cup qualification cycle.
00:16:26
Speaker
Oman aren't going to really add anything to the next round. And I think Palestine would have, and that's what made this result so unfortunate and so heartbreaking. And just like you said, right? Like, It's the continuation of a dream. And for Palestine, that's what this match came down to. It was like, hey, we're going to get another chance to make this thing become a reality.
00:16:46
Speaker
And in the end, they they weren't able to do that in pretty frustrating circumstances. So, yeah, that was some of the most heartbreaking scenes I think we've seen in in this World Cup qualification cycle.
00:16:58
Speaker
Moving on to Group C, Amit, we're coming into
Australia's Path to World Cup
00:17:01
Speaker
it. We were potentially set up for an Australia-Saudi Arabia showdown on the last day. Australia hosted Japan on Thursday. Japan were already qualified. They heavily rotated their squad.
00:17:11
Speaker
They bossed this game. They created chances, but I think you could tell that they lacked the finishing touch that maybe some of their top-tier players would have had. And it looked like we would still go to the last day withdrawal. This match was nil-nil late.
00:17:22
Speaker
But Australia took one of the few chances that they created. Aziz Bej popped up at the end of the box. One of the few forward attacks he got on the end of the ball, curled it home. A one-nil win for Australia. That set them in really good shape heading into the last day because Saudi Arabia only beat Bahrain 2-0 later on in the day.
00:17:39
Speaker
That meant that the Saudis needed to score a lot against Australia, and they didn't. They scored first in the match that they played head-to-head with Australia. Australia methodically came back in the game. They deserve their win and admit they deserve their spot in the world cup on the basis of what they did in qualifying. Again, they're not going to wow you with anything that they do, but they can defend solidly and they have just enough going forward that they can threaten medium tier teams.
00:18:04
Speaker
That's a good way to put it. Medium tier teams. I think Australia is a, is always a fun team to have at a world cup for lots of reasons. And we have kind of some great memories of them, the Tim Cahill era, other eras. Yeah.
00:18:16
Speaker
And it's just that no-nonsense, almost like very old-school British style. I know they're they're Australian, but it's ah you know it's ugly but effective. It's direct, and they defend solidly. They always have that fighting spirit.
00:18:28
Speaker
And this team is just another team in that mold. And I think that's great. um They kind of, at the end of the day, I think it was like a few so few match days ago when we had said that that one point might just all they need, and then they kind of...
00:18:44
Speaker
broke into getting this Japan team when they did. And I think they played the breaks better. Certainly that's enough. um I think like to your point about, they don't necessarily play head to head versus the Saudis. And if we play that game three times, that would be like interesting, but in terms of what we got, 100% they were deserving. They were more effective.
00:19:03
Speaker
They were more committed. They were um super locked in. And yeah, I think the theme kind of of them and Uzbekistan certainly is that that solidity, and even Jordan, is that solidity in defense and not really messing around in Asia will just get you where you need to be.
00:19:20
Speaker
Yeah, and this this came down to at the end, sorry, but this came down to at the end, Saudi Arabia didn't score enough goals against bad teams. They scored seven goals in 10 games in this round of World Cup qualifying. That's just frankly not enough. They finished with a minus one goal differential in their 10 matches. And so because of that,
00:19:36
Speaker
They went into the last day, they had to score five against Australia. They were never going to be able to do that. And then that match got conditioned because of that. And so this came down to Saudi Arabia's ineffectiveness against everybody else. And also Australia being able to get results against Japan. They got a one, one draw that was massive for them in Japan.
00:19:53
Speaker
And then, as you said, they took advantage of of a situation where they beat Japan on the penultimate day. Saudi Arabia against Japan were able to get nil-lil draw, but then they lost 2-0. And then the difference was just Australia got better results against Indonesia. At home against Indonesia, Australia beat them 5-1. Saudi Arabia drew 1-1.
00:20:09
Speaker
That's the difference right there in setting up how that last day went. Australia were better than Saudi Arabia over qualifying, and that's why they're going to the World Cup, and Saudi Arabia are going to the next round. Yeah, I mean, that's that's what it is, and...
00:20:22
Speaker
I want to say I'm disappointed in Saudi Arabia, but I just – I don't want to use any mean words to to describe what we saw, but it was unimpressive is, the is like, the the best way to put it. You can't talk bad about Hevernaud. And this was also, like, a disjointed qualification. Yes, yes. Like, Roberto Mancini was managing them at various points. He had a scarf. He was unhappy.
00:20:42
Speaker
Hevernaud brought his dress shirt. It wasn't – it got wrinkled because it was too – like – Yeah. That's what it was. Let's see. I think if we give her Renard some time with Saudi Arabia, I think there's a chance that he can get something better here. So let's see what happens in the next round.
00:20:55
Speaker
He's exactly the type of guy you want for like the voodoo of whatever's going to happen next. Yeah. Yeah. And Sonny Ramey will be joined a bit in the next round by one of our favorite teams in World Cup qualifying. It's Indonesia who started their World Cup qualification journey in the first round of Asian qualifying.
00:21:10
Speaker
They were 1-0 winners against China on Thursday. That result secured their spot. Don't ask what happened in Japan because it didn't matter for Indonesia. Patrick Kluivert managing this Indonesia team. I mean, he is so sweaty.
00:21:22
Speaker
He is just not prepared for the Jakarta weather. The humidity is really taking a lot out of him. ah He changed shirts at halftime of this match for those who are keeping track at home. There was a lot of tension in this match. This was very similar to the Uzbekistan match.
00:21:34
Speaker
There were very few chances and Indonesia took advantage of the chance that they got, which was a player going down on the edge of the area, a very clumsy bit of defending from the Chinese defense, very long VAR review, penalty given, and Ole Romany, Oxford United zone.
00:21:50
Speaker
In this situation, Amit, When you get a penalty like that, you just simply have to score it. Like, that's what this comes down to. They did. And then from there, China created one chance early in the second half. A nice save from Aldero, the Indonesian goalkeeper. And from there, we saw what we'd seen from China throughout World Cup qualifying.
00:22:06
Speaker
Was that simply they're just not at this level. So Indonesia go through to the fourth round of World Cup qualifying. They go through with a minus 11 goal differential, but that's okay. A lot of that comes from getting smashed by Japan on multiple occasions.
00:22:18
Speaker
They beat out China and Bahrain for that spot. They will join Saudi Arabia. They will join Qatar, Iraq, the UAE, and Oman. And this Asian fourth round emit is, it's really...
00:22:32
Speaker
backup chance for Qatar and Saudi, right? It's the bailout that the big petro states needed in this case. And it's going to be probably even more of a bailout because it's a badly formatted group of three that we played at a single site.
00:22:44
Speaker
The draw will be held on July 17th. Qatar and Saudi Arabia make up pot one. Saudi Arabia beat out Iraq by one FIFA ranking spot for that spot in pot one. Iraq and the UAE in pot two. Oman and Indonesia in pot three.
00:22:55
Speaker
Again, these games will be played at a single site. you know what happens, right? Like single site Asia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are already in pot one. Like these matches are absolutely going to be hosted by them. And that's just going to make the bailout seem even bigger.
00:23:08
Speaker
Right. Yes, I'm taking the same cynical approach you are. It feels that way. That's what this format feels like. But at the same time, there just is like the that that hope for chaos, that hope in that it's two one-off games and anything can happen.
00:23:24
Speaker
yeah But even though with that being like what we can hold on to is that everything else is stacked against the other teams, basically, in terms of scheduling the pots, the house sites, and just like the whole fact that I feel like these two teams have kind of been circling this for a year at this point. Guess what? Even if they don't somehow win their groups to make the world cup directly, all they have to do is finish second and they get another bailout and the Asian fifth round. Yeah. Yeah. in another playoff I think anything but Qatar and Saudi Arabia taking the two World Cup spots here is probably would probably be a surprise. But again, there's still those spots in the Asian playoff. I think the clash between Iraq, Indonesia, OAN and UAE could get interesting. And I absolutely think that one of those teams can challenge Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Let's see where the schedule goes out. Let's see that. That all will happen on July seventeen
00:24:15
Speaker
we'll have a full preview for that when we regroup again in September. all right, let's move from Asia and admit, you know how good or maybe how bad South American and North American qualifying was?
Surprising UEFA Qualifiers Results
00:24:26
Speaker
We're going to UEFA second. They get the second billing on the sheet this week. That's how good UEFA qualifying was. Lots of games. We're not going to break down every single one of them, but there are some huge results here. think the best way to look at this is let's talk about the teams from pot one that made their debut. We talked about this a long time ago. UEFA qualifying, you've got groups of five and groups of four.
00:24:44
Speaker
Groups of four haven't even started yet. We'll see those teams in September. Groups of five started, but a lot of the teams from pot one hadn't debuted yet. They debuted here. Comfortable debuts for austria Austria, Netherlands, and Croatia. Those three teams all won with flying colors.
00:24:58
Speaker
They are well on their way to making the World Cup. England had already debuted. They won twice in March. They only played one qualifier here. It was a 1-0 away win against Andorra, which is about as bad of a qualifying result as you can get. And then en England went and lost to Senegal 3-1 in a friendly, which is bad.
00:25:13
Speaker
But that's not the purpose of today's show. We're good just going to file that away to use for ammunition later. The pot one teams that struggled a bit, we have to start with Italy. who have failed to qualify for two straight World Cups.
00:25:26
Speaker
And it's going to be a question if they can qualify for this one because of it. They were thoroughly outclassed in a loss against Norway. They were. The Norway XI is just really good, and there's more stars around the field. I know we want to talk about the front three, but even the back line has got some good guys.
00:25:42
Speaker
And it's just kind of what we've kind of said about Italy now for few years, and we mentioned on the preview pod, but to just see it in World Cup qualifying... um And this game and their you know their their next game as well, they struggle to create high-level chances. They can have the ball. They don't have difference makers playing the ball. They don't have difference makers finishing the ball.
00:26:05
Speaker
And they also, you think ah Italy has elite defenders. They have good defenders, but it's not... It's not the same, right, as like the imperious names that you associate with the Italis of all time.
00:26:18
Speaker
They got smoked by Norway in the first half of this match. Yeah, like yeah, they were all over them. Italy might not be good, but they can still defend. Just not what happened there. Norway's attacking trident. Sorlach, Musa, Haaland, really good, and they all scored a goal.
00:26:30
Speaker
Like, it was a perfect performance for Norway, and Italy were that bad. Yeah, it's a 5-0 on fire, I think, for Italy at this point. And... I think it's just the state of the team. They're going to have to, like, really grind really, really hard just to get the max out of it, which is...
00:26:50
Speaker
good enough to be in a World Cup and not really great to make a run. You know, obviously any team with that much like pedigree, I'm putting in air quotes, can do something at a World Cup, but that's not even where we're at, right? They're going to have to slime this out the hard way to get in um through this format.
00:27:07
Speaker
And I don't know, like, I don't think anyone is thinking it's crazy now to say Norway just full on better. Yeah, and they were. um so so let's talk about the path forward for Italy here. They beat Moldova 2-0 in their second match. It was very unimpressive. They scored on either side of halftime. They had to huff and puff to do it.
00:27:25
Speaker
But those were the three points that they needed. Norway, meanwhile, had a a win against Estonia, a tough 1-0 away win against Estonia. That leaves Italy nine points back of Norway and at a big disadvantage on goal differential because of that 3-0 result and because Norway have been racking up the score later.
00:27:41
Speaker
So Italy's path to beating Norway to the top spot here is very, very thin. They're going to have to beat Norway and they're going to need Norway to probably stumble somewhere else. And Italy cannot afford another stumble at all at any point in what's left of qualifying.
00:27:55
Speaker
doesn't feel super likely. So that means that they are chasing Israel who had a nice three, one comeback win over Estonia here for second place. And all that second place gets you is a spot in the UEFA playoff, which is going to be a set of 14 playoffs where you have to win in two games to make the world cup.
00:28:12
Speaker
That's probably the best case scenario for Italy right now. And if they fail to chase Israel, if they can't track down Israel, their margin of error is gone. Their hopes of finishing first, as we said, that rely on on Norway stumbling somewhere.
00:28:25
Speaker
And if they don't finish second, it's not likely they're going get the Nations League bailout because they didn't make the Nations League semifinals. And so because of that, it would take a pretty strong set of results, potential set of results that could happen, but a pretty strong set of results for Italy to actually get that Nations League bailout.
00:28:42
Speaker
Because they're behind teams like Moldova and San Marino in the ranking. That means, Amit, that this is coming down to them somehow having to finish second. I think you'd still back them to finish second. Claudio Ranieri has been rumored to be coming in. ah This is a five-alarm fire. It's exactly like you said. It's a five-alarm fire with previous results that really make you worry. Because, again, this is the third straight cycle this has happened.
00:29:06
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's getting dicey. And also, like, Claudio Ranieri is an awesome manager. He's obviously super well-respected for what he did with Leicester.
00:29:17
Speaker
He's kind of certainly got that escape artist vibe to him that he might be the right guy to, like, get Italy through this tough time. But he also has kind of got, like... he doesn't project confidence.
00:29:29
Speaker
Yeah. It's like ah as a move, right? Like I'm not feeling better about Italy. I'm just thinking more that the, the fire is worse, like that, that this is happening. And I just, what, what would be the right type of manager to, to get this team over the hump? Would it like, it's just all kind of just smelly and tough. I'm, I'm, yeah I'm very, I'm very worried.
00:29:52
Speaker
Home against Estonia, away at a neutral site against Israel in September. I think we're going to know a lot about Italy's World Cup chances with that September window. And again, Norway are in a very, very good spot to make a World Cup and to finally get to that major tournament with this generation of players they have. Their only game next window will be at home against Voldova.
00:30:11
Speaker
You can probably bank the three points for them there. Belgium amid the other pot one team that had a very interesting start to world cup qualification.
Belgium's Defensive Struggles
00:30:20
Speaker
Let's say they played well in their first match, which is an away match against North Macedonia. They got pegged back by a really great goal for Ali Oski in the 86th minute for a one, one away draw.
00:30:29
Speaker
Those are the type of results of it that I think you and I would kind of look at each other say, all right That happens, right? You're playing a decent enough team away. Sometimes things happen and and you drop two points. Belgium responded, or at least it seemed like they responded really well to that because within half an hour, they were 3-0 up on Wales at home. It was time to put it on cruise control.
00:30:48
Speaker
But unfortunately, imit Belgium just cannot defend at all. And so because of that, Wales scored three times to make this match 3-3. Unfortunately for Wales, admit Wales can't defend either. At least they can't defend Belgium.
00:31:00
Speaker
And so Belgium had an initial 4-3 goal that was chopped off by VAR after they said the ball went out of play. And then it didn't matter because Belgium just went and scored again. Kevin De Bruyne was left unmarked at the far post, which just probably shouldn't happen at this level at that point of match.
00:31:14
Speaker
4-3 Belgium win. This game was one of the wackiest games I think we've seen in the entire World Cup qualification cycle.
00:31:23
Speaker
100% Belgium were all over them and then completely just let Wales walk right back because it's not just the the structure the names are also not great it's both for Belgium not a good defense not a good defense at all um they were quite poor also because Wales like attackers are not the same caliber as Belgium's attackers and Wales kind of just lump the ball forward and run and it was like working um This was insane. This was hilarious. And that those last few minutes where both teams were kind of just running at each other, it was super entertaining.
00:31:55
Speaker
ah It was almost, it would have been really funny if it was 3-3 and that big game winning chance came to Big Rom Lukaku. And he just bricked it off the defender right in front of him. Now, it ended up not mattering, like you said, was disallowed. De Bruyne was wide open again on the winner.
00:32:11
Speaker
But that just would have been the most fitting end to this game for this Belgium generation still relying on these guys and still just kind of having the same playbook. I mean, we we have our bits and they just they just keep coming back, right?
00:32:24
Speaker
This is Belgium. This was a great game. It was super entertaining. um hope they're back in the field doing the same thing. I think they will be. This was kind of probably their biggest scar scare and they, you know, came out of it unscathed. You wouldn't know it ah if you hadn't seen it.
00:32:40
Speaker
ah Belgium four back of North Macedonia, but they have two games in hand. I think, like you said, this was the result that they needed to not let slip away, and they didn't. Again, there's not a huge margin for error here, but over the course of, you know, what is it, eight matches against Wales in North Macedonia, you're going to back Belgium to just get it done.
00:32:59
Speaker
over the stretch and and they should make it. It looks like we're getting a really good matchup between Wales and North Macedonia in the fight for second. Whoever doesn't come out on top in that fight for a second will almost assuredly have a Nations League bailout awaiting them. So that kind of conditions things, how how what happens in this group.
00:33:16
Speaker
Other storylines here, Amit from UEFA Qualifying.
Netherlands' Strong Start
00:33:19
Speaker
Poland and Finland are definitely worth mentioning. They are in the same group as Netherlands, who we mentioned quickly earlier that had a very strong start to their world cup qualification, two matches plus 10 goal differential.
00:33:29
Speaker
That's what you're looking for from your pot one team. Poland are in an interesting spot. Robert Lewandowski has said that he wouldn't play it for manager Michael Proveris after he was stripped of the captaincy. He may or may not have turned down call up at some point. It was all getting very bad vibes for Poland. And then they went and lost to one in Helsinki against Finland.
00:33:47
Speaker
And it related to news a bit. Michael Prover is, is no longer the manager of Poland. If you can't do it without Lewandowski, you're not going to be able to do it for Poland. And at that point, he's probably more important than whoever's managing the team. That's the reality of it, right?
00:34:01
Speaker
Yeah. Poland can't really afford to not have their, you know, only player to kind of lift them above, the mock are generationally good attacking player. Like, yeah, you probably want that guy. I don't care how old he is. You probably want him in the team.
00:34:14
Speaker
And yeah, yeah that's where you're at. I mean, how did so Poland, what's it looking like for them going next, next round? Yeah. So it's next window. Yeah. Yeah. So it's Poland and Finland probably for a second. Poland still have their chances. They haven't played the Netherlands yet. Finland lost two nil at home to the Netherlands. So Poland still have a chance to maybe take some points off of the Netherlands.
00:34:35
Speaker
Netherlands are really good. Like, Again, there's a level here that they're just going to be simply better than teams like 8-0 against Malta is is what you would expect. But the Netherlands are taking care of business and really good. Poland and the Netherlands are going to play in September, first match. That's a big one for Poland.
00:34:53
Speaker
And then they're going to have to try and chase down Finland for a second, who they've now given a point gap to. um Although Poland do have a a game in hand there. So it looks like the Poland-Finland battle we expected for second is where it's going to be.
00:35:05
Speaker
Maybe a bit of an upper hand to Finland so far because they did this match. Other storyline of it, Bosnia and Herzegovina, they still have it, kind of, maybe. Edingeco scored in a 1-0 win over San Marino, which, like, sure, is not really a sentence that inspires a ton of confidence, but they're three clear of Romania for a second. They have a game in hand. It's against Austria, who have been really good. But still, Bosnia and Herzegovina, right at this fight, we expected it to be Bosnia
Bosnia and Herzegovina's Competitive Edge
00:35:29
Speaker
and Romania. That's what it's looking like. It's going be in Group H. Again, that's for a second.
00:35:32
Speaker
We fully expect Austria, a team that I think we both really like, to get it done here. Yeah, and not one that inspires confidence. um Maybe they can get that point against Austria, but I think that that one will come down to the last little bit.
00:35:47
Speaker
um When do they play? Those teams will play. Oh, you sprung a question on me, and I wasn't on the right Wikipedia page. ah Let's see. Bosnia and Herzegovina, this is great podcast, and this is exactly what the people want. There's too many groups in Europe.
00:36:01
Speaker
That's my point here that I want to make. yeah We got too many letters. I can't remember which letters. Here's the point. They still have to play. So I think it'll come down to that one at the end of the day. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania will play in November on the penultimate match day. And then interestingly, Bosnia will finish with an away match against Austria and Romania will finish against San Marino. So I would highly encourage Bosnia to be well ahead of Romania.
00:36:21
Speaker
yeah going into Yeah. Well, we'll see. That'll be a fun one. Um, Eastern European drama in group K Albania were able to hold Serbia who made their debut here. No, no, again, England were the pot one team here, but because of how bad they were in the nation's league, Serbia actually was the team that didn't play so far in group K Albania held Serbia in a nil nil draw, but then Albania went and drew one, one with Latvia. while Serbia smashed Andorra with an Alexander Mitrovic hat trick.
00:36:46
Speaker
This is going to be a messy, potentially three-way fight behind England for second place here between Albania, Serbia, and Latvia. Money's probably still on Serbia? I think so, narrowly.
00:36:58
Speaker
hu I mean, it's a it's not a great result. Albania-Serbia 0-0 for Serbia. But then Albania going and not beating Latvia, I think probably makes Serbia feel a little more controlled about where things are.
00:37:11
Speaker
Yeah, I think Serbia just has to get it done in the other games. They can they can beat Lavia. They have the attacking players. Albania can defend, but they don't have they don't have the attacking players. yeah It should bear itself out.
00:37:22
Speaker
We'll see. things Things can always get wacky. I think Serbia are probably the only team here that have a legitimate chance to take anything off England as well, which could also be a difference down the stretch in in in this group. And finally, ah Czech Republic are in front in that Group L battle for second. They beat Montenegro 2-0. They're just better. And then they got absolutely rolled by Croatia, who are just better than those teams. Croatia, I mean, still got so god Old, still got it.
00:37:45
Speaker
At least still got it. Yeah, man. Luka Modric was quite literally passing circles around the Czech Republic. And like the Czech Republic's not bad. there arrow like They're a very competent team.
00:37:57
Speaker
And I was like, oh, maybe they can hang. Nope. Croatian absolutely destroyed them. So there's levels. Yeah. Czech Republic, though, they do have that advantage over Montenegro that we mentioned in the fight for Group L. Again, in UEFA, we will get a full slate of UEFA action in September. All those four team groups, of which there are six of them, will all be making their debut. So we'll see everybody in action from UEFA in September.
00:38:21
Speaker
And we'll start to really get a better glimpse of where these teams are, especially in relation to the playoff. Because again, there's that Nations League ranking that will play a role, but it depends on who qualifies for the playoff outright. We'll keep y all all in the loop on that when we get to it in September and further on.
00:38:36
Speaker
All right, let's move to Connable now, where surprising results have been few and far between here.
Predictable CONMEBOL Qualifiers
00:38:42
Speaker
Things have just kind of scuttled along. There's been a ah result here there that maybe makes your eyes whiten, but Connable teams have just kind of meandered along the path that we thought they would go along. Let's talk about the Venezuela-Bolivia match amid a 2-0 win for Venezuela.
00:38:58
Speaker
Big match. World Cup hopes on the line. Charged atmosphere. And if you're Bolivia going into that situation, the thing you cannot do is just let the ball bounce between your legs in the sixth minute and give Venezuela a free goal.
00:39:11
Speaker
like just I'm just laughing. This was like truly comical of the highest order. Like, Bolivia, guys. Yeah. It's already so hard. He got nutmegged his own back pass.
00:39:26
Speaker
It's already so hard. Like, just for all of the intrinsic reasons that we've talked about extensively, it's so hard to be Bolivia. And then you're just gifting goals on play. Like, you just can't.
00:39:37
Speaker
You just can't. A back pass from a defender, Jeremy Oksara, the Bolivian goalkeeper, just got completely crossed out by the ball just rolled across a line. Like, that's the bounce that Venezuela needed here, right? Like, ah yes.
00:39:49
Speaker
We hit... we had said, how's it going to go down? It's going to be who gets the bounces and who doesn't, you know, you know, shoot themselves in the foot. And Bolivia just did the two for one. So yeah, I guess Venezuela was due for this to happen. I don't know. Like this is almost silly for, you know, the rest of the game happened certainly, but like, that's insane.
00:40:12
Speaker
There's no coming back from that, right? Like that happens. yeah it couldn't No, not happening. So Venezuela were better. We knew they would be Bolivia kind of handed it to them. And yet, of it, and yet, we go to Tuesday.
00:40:26
Speaker
Bolivia 2-0 winners over very, very gone and dead Chile. Venezuela 2-0 losers to Uruguay. And as we look to our one beacon of drama in South America, Bolivia are still just a point back of Venezuela for seventh In September, Bolivia will play a away against Colombia and then at home against a Brazil team that have already qualified with the World Cup and will be definitely interested about playing at 13,000 feet on the last match day in the start of their European club season.
00:40:53
Speaker
Venezuela will go to Argentina and will then play Colombia at home. A bit, Venezuela need two points to be certain of it because Bolivia can beat Brazil in El Alto. We've seen it happen. Those types of results can happen for this Bolivia side.
00:41:06
Speaker
If Venezuela can get two points, they're good to go. but Bolivia are not going to get a result away against Colombia, and they're not going to overturn the goal differential because of how bad they've been. Can Venezuela get those two points, or are they just banking on Bolivia not being able to beat Brazil on the last day?
00:41:21
Speaker
I think you've got to send Carlo Ancelotti, you know, the best gift basket you can. And you just got to say, hey, man, I don't care what how you do it, but I need you to put 10 guys on the goal line in El Alto.
00:41:35
Speaker
You don't have to run. I don't want you to run your players under the ground. Just park the dang thing for us, please. No, this is going to be like fascinating um to see. ah I'm kind of with you. I don't think Brazil is going to be interested. That doesn't mean Bolivia are going to get anything.
00:41:51
Speaker
And yeah, I mean, Colombia, can Venezuela do something at Argentina? Sure. But I just don't think so. think we both are of the agreement. This is coming down to the last match. Yeah, I think Bolivia and Venezuela are both going to lose their first games.
00:42:05
Speaker
Venezuela are going to be playing already qualified Colombia at home. Is can they do, but they're probably going to need to win to be certain. yeah Right. Like a point is not going to make a difference. yeah And, and it's, it's going to be really interesting. I think we'll be really interested to see the squads of particularly Brazil and Columbia, because we know that there's a little more variance in their squad. Like if you're in Venezuela, you want Brazil to just take guys that are going to try, right?
00:42:30
Speaker
Like, yeah, you just take Flamingo, just take the Flamingo. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Don't call your Europe guys. They don't need the jet lag. Don't, don't, don't stress them like that. ah um yeah Yeah, it's going to be really interesting. i I am of the mind that I think it's the best way Venezuela gets in is just zeros in the next four. nobody does that Because I'm not sure they can be getting a goal differential.
00:42:56
Speaker
Yeah, maybe they can play to a spirited home 1-0 against Colombia, but i that's tough. That's tough. you I know Colombia could be rotated, could be bad, but...
00:43:07
Speaker
There's a talent gap. There's talent gap on both sides. And... here's the thing Bolivia are not gonna go down for a lack of trying they're gonna know 40 shots from 40 yards and then give a yeah uh they gotta call Allison in everyone else can be sorry buddy we'll turn you a play but you gotta come we need you to save me yeah so um that's gonna be certainly fun delightful situation where the Venezuela Federation is chartering the plane for Allison like yeah like maybe
00:43:38
Speaker
make sure you get there. It's legitimately interesting. I'm very excited to see what happens. Around the rest of South America, Ecuador and Brazil qualify. A pair of nil-nil draws for Ecuador.
00:43:50
Speaker
They can really defend, man. They've given up five goals in the 16 World Cup qualification matches they've played so far. they They played a nil-nil draw against Brazil. A less impressive nil-nil draw against Peru, but hey, they'll take it. They're going to the World Cup. They've been the second south second best South American team.
00:44:05
Speaker
Brazil, meanwhile, get in as Vinicius Jr. finds the back of the net right on halftime for a 1-0 win over Paraguay. We'll get into this at some other point when there's not so much action going on. I'm expecting for Carlo Ancelotti in Brazil, but they'll take it.
00:44:18
Speaker
Look, they beat Paraguay, which is actually a pretty good result because they're the first team to do that in the Gustavo Alfaro era. um And they've made a World Cup, i mean and they've got a year to kind of figure everything out. Let's see if they can.
00:44:30
Speaker
Yeah, job done for Carlo. They'll pass the buck a little bit to the to the few months from now and think about the squad and certainly see if he can work his dark magic. This was, this was fine for them. And, and I think, as you said, you know, sneaky underrated, um, when to, when to have Paraguay's tough to beat.
00:44:46
Speaker
You certainly have to use your stars doing star things to, to get them. So, um, yeah, they're going to be one of the most exciting teams to parse, uh, I think come the fall in the spring, uh, when we get there.
00:44:59
Speaker
I think they're also one of the most intriguing teams to see what happens October, November, and March. They've got three international windows for Ancelotti to try and work to figure out his squad. Again, I don't think we're going to see a ton from them in September. They play Chile at home. That match doesn't matter. And then we talked about the Bolivia match. I think that's one where, hey, Ancelotti, let's figure out who's going to be dude 20 to 26 on our squad, right? Like that's what that window's for. And then he can figure everything out.
00:45:23
Speaker
Paraguay and Uruguay, meanwhile, are all but there. I'm not loving the vibes for Uruguay, but they beat Venezuela when they had to, and and that kind of kept this from spiraling out of control. Paraguay finally lost, but the job is is well but done.
00:45:35
Speaker
Tip of the cap to Gustavo Alfaro. Those teams are six points clear of Venezuela with six points left to go. They have massive goal differential advantages. They both just need one point to be mathematically sure, or they need Venezuela to drop points.
00:45:47
Speaker
It's going to happen. We knew it was going to happen. Paraguay deserve a lot of credit, though, because we had pegged them a tier below of where they are, and they managed to jump up that tier largely because of Gustavo Alfaro Dark Magic.
00:45:59
Speaker
That's the like the truth of it, actually. um We've been doing this this whole time. We cannot explain how Paraguay did this. You simply just have to say, Alfaro, credit to you, hats off.
00:46:11
Speaker
um They'll be fun. They'll be fun in the field. They've certainly earned it, 100%. This is really tricky um region to do this in. And I think he's made them and you just can tell that the tier we thought they were, they have a lot more respect. Like they're just a tough team to undo.
00:46:28
Speaker
Um, so that's, that's something I, I truly didn't see coming. i don't know. I don't know if like we, we thought Paraguay could be this, but it's there. Columbia also look very good. They're four points clear of Venezuela. But again, even if Columbia don't pick up a single point down the stretch, Venezuela would have to win both of their matches to pass Columbia.
00:46:47
Speaker
ah If Colombia beat Bolivia, they're in. Beat Bolivia at home, that is should be said. They're in. An in-low draw at home against Peru is not a very good result. They actually got outplayed, really, for a lot of that match against Peru, which was somewhat surprising.
00:46:59
Speaker
But the 1-1 away draw against Argentina, I think, is a good point. Colombia have been very weird since the Copa America. They've basically done nothing except for their two matches against Argentina, which they won and got a very spirited point.
00:47:10
Speaker
I'm kind of tempted to just give them a pass for all of this, but I'm a bit concerned going to the World Cup. Yeah, I think they're a better tournament team than they are a qualifying team because of their strategy, which is like super reliant on like doing nothing and then getting up for set pieces.
00:47:27
Speaker
And just their, you know, so much of their style is based on physicality, getting up for the big games, getting into the heads, bringing the intensity to every challenge. Harder to do when you're you're traveling across the sea and you've got to get through the slog of World to Cup qualifying.
00:47:42
Speaker
They're still not even 100% there, which kind of shows you compared to the Ecuador and the Paraguay and the Uruguay. They haven't done that. um So I think that's just the reality of them. But I'm with you. I'm going to give them a pass that I think they're going to be a force to be reckoned with at the World Cup. I certainly think they're going to be ah a popular dark horse team that can make a run if everything is break right for them because of the way they play.
00:48:04
Speaker
And also the fact that they got up for Argentina kind of tells you like, one, they were super upset ah about how that went. And I think they take that very personally um as as they they, you know, that's just how it is.
00:48:17
Speaker
I'm, um I think it's all fully explainable. I think they'll be up for it. I think they'll be good. Am I going to say they're going to even make a round of 16? They could lose the round before that. I wouldn't be surprised.
00:48:28
Speaker
They're going be right in that mix, and they're going to be a fun team to watch. And, you know, I think a thing that also um is funny for them is that they kind of got this James-like...
00:48:39
Speaker
second third wind of his career but like you can't use it all up right they've got to just know like just ah they just need like hot a freezer right yeah yeah they need the han solo car that like we'll see dude like just don't do anything don't hurt anything don't pull anything go to wherever you need to go for nothing to happen to you and you come to you and you're good and you can give us one more month that's all we need one more exactly so they're a very um odd team in that way that there's a lot of little things about them. You have to consider.
00:49:10
Speaker
We'll be excited to see them in June next year. Luis Diaz also really, really good. The goal that he scored against Argentina was incredible. Like that's a really, really good Argentina defense. And he just made them look like amateurs and dribbled around all of them and scored.
00:49:23
Speaker
Finally, Chile are officially done. Peru are on life support. They're six points back with six left to play. Good riddance, Chile. This was a really, really bad World Cup qualification cycle. Finishing seventh was not hard to do and they didn't get anywhere close to doing it. Ricardo Garreca wanted no part of any of this window.
00:49:38
Speaker
It was like, why am I still doing this? Probably because they don't want to pay my buyout. They want to wait. And it was just like, he just did not want to be there. He like made it very clear. They didn't want to be there. He didn't shave at all or anything. Or like even it was, yeah, just the vibes of it. We talk about the vibes a lot. They were impeccably bad.
00:49:55
Speaker
Yeah, really tough for Chile. I think a team we thought might have been better than Paraguay at the start of all of this, better than Venezuela, maybe. We had that discussion, I know. And yeah, I think that's the best way to put it.
00:50:06
Speaker
Vibes were horrible, kind of just petered out. It was, I think, a lot of soul-searching for Chile. And, you know, don't need to we don't need to do that too much of ourselves. But ah what what can you say other than, like, pretty insipid, lifeless display over...
00:50:23
Speaker
matches Yeah, like how bad was it for Chile? They were eliminated from finishing seventh with two games still to go. Like that is really, really bad. Just, yeah, not at the races whatsoever.
00:50:36
Speaker
um Peru are... Pretty much dead. They're six points back. They were actually kind of better this window. I kind of liked what I saw. ah But at some point, they have to score goals. And unfortunately, they have 41-year-old Paulo Guerrero to do that. And that's just not going to get it done. They've only scored six goals in 16 matches.
00:50:51
Speaker
um As I said, they're six points back of Venezuela. They played Paraguay at home and Uruguay away in September. They would have to win both of those matches. They would need Venezuela to lose both of those matches.
00:51:02
Speaker
They would need Bolivia to not pick up more than a point. And they would also admit have to overturn seven goals of goal differential on Venezuela. And again, a point that I already made, but would like to reinforce, they have scored six goals in 16 matches.
00:51:17
Speaker
So you're saying, no, I can't even finish it. yeah No, I mean... they're They're basically done. They're done. And yeah, credit to them for like, you know, playing hard, having a good defense this whole time, but they they can't so overturn seven goals.
00:51:30
Speaker
They haven't scored seven. Yeah. Their best hope is that Argentina scores like a bunch against Venezuela and does all the work for them. And then they somehow still have to win two matches, one nil. But yes, Peru are all but done.
00:51:41
Speaker
And the only team that we haven't really mentioned here is Argentina, who continued to keep on keeping on 35 points from 16 matches played well clear of second place. Ecuador. All right, let's close out the show by heading to CONCACAF.
Intensifying CONCACAF Qualifiers
00:51:54
Speaker
A lot of games in CONCACAF, not a lot of games that ended up mattering. We broke down the storylines going into it. Let's talk about the games that made a difference and also the games that didn't go pretty much according to script.
00:52:05
Speaker
Guatemala were 4-2 winners over the Dominican Republic. Guatemala scored early in this match. Dominican Republic scored twice before halftime for a 2-1 lead. Good Guatemalan effort in the second half there into the next round by virtue of their 4-2 win. trion tabago Trinidad and Tobago, I should say, were 6-2 winners over St. Kitts and Nevis.
00:52:23
Speaker
St. Kitts and Nevis fought back from a goal back twice in this magic dis match. This match was... was bonkers to be honest with you. And then Chinatown Tobago just kind of wore them down as the game went on and inflated the scoreline late. Those two teams qualify in second place in their groups.
00:52:36
Speaker
Neither of those admit is too terribly surprising. Perhaps Dominican Republic could have offered a bit more here, but Guatemala were were better and and deserving of their spot. Yeah, I don't have too much to add. I think Guatemala are right around this level, which is fine. Same with Chinatown Tobago.
00:52:53
Speaker
we'll see how we'll see We'll see how they do in the next round. Yeah, Levi Garcia, a really good player for Trinidad and Tobago. We saw some of him in their second match, which didn't matter, the 2-1 loss against Costa Rica. he's He certainly got the the level there.
00:53:04
Speaker
Suriname were 1-0 winners over Puerto Rico and then drew 1-1 with El Salvador. This was the perfect cycle for Suriname. Jadon Montour was just bigger on the goal that he scored against Puerto Rico in making the difference there.
00:53:17
Speaker
And then Justin Lonwick, who was injured later in this game, was good for the opener against El Salvador. Surdome were all over El Salvador in the first half. And those results, coupled with what Puerto Rico was doing against St. Vincent in the Grenadines, meant that El Salvador needed at least a draw from this match against Surdome.
00:53:32
Speaker
They got a very, very big goal from Brian Hill. ah Ghosted in for for the goal, the equalizer that they needed. You could feel the relief for El Salvador at that moment. And then once Puerto Rico had taken the lead against St. Vincent, the Grenadines down the stretch, El Salvador did everything that they could to hang on to the point that they needed.
00:53:48
Speaker
And they did so much it that they got booted, whistled by their own crowds because they were just very apathetic in the last 10 minutes. It was almost like they didn't want to poke Suriname into doing anything. They just said, here, have the ball and we'll just let you have the ball. And this will just kind of ticker out and we'll advance.
00:54:01
Speaker
But hey, you got to do what you got to do in advance. Hernan Gomez is a very, very experienced manager, knew what he had to do. It's not impressive. It's not going to make anybody happy. But at the end of the day, El Salvador's name is in the draw, was in the draw for the next round. And that's what they needed here.
00:54:16
Speaker
Yeah, it's ah certainly the results could have put them under more pressure. Right. But they just they ended up this way. Surinam, though, I'm im yeah, intrigued.
00:54:27
Speaker
Very intrigued. i'm I've got an eye on them in the next round. um You know, what would you... I know we haven't done too much, but, like, how are you feeling about El Salvador? what like Not good. Like, I mean, yeah, not great, right? But... Yeah, no. i it's It's funny because El Salvador have great atmosphere, and that great support. You know, got got ah ah two or so guys that your you're intrigued of doing things, right? Like...
00:54:56
Speaker
Yeah, let's see when you give them a fresh slate, right? Like when they're not conditioned by the fact that they have to play it for a point. let's Let's see what happens in that next round. And then the last result, I think I'm going to hear that's worth mentioning. Bermuda, 2-1 winners over Cuba on the last match day to send them through to the next round.
00:55:10
Speaker
Bermuda pounced on an early goalkeeping error. Um, this is notable because the the regular goalkeeper for Cuba plays in Las Vegas, uh, for his club team but was advised not to travel to Cuba for fear that he would not be let back in to the United States on return. That meant that Cuba had to go with the backup probably made a difference there on that initial goal.
00:55:26
Speaker
Bermuda got broken for the Cuban goal. This match was great a bit because the camera was not like particularly elevated. And so it was just kind of in the middle of the stands. And so it was just like you were watching the game with all the Cuban supporters. Like the camera would pan to the right to show the goal. And you could just see the faces of like half of the crowd.
00:55:42
Speaker
And it was a very fun, low budget, great CONCACAF experience here. um And the Cuban center backs in the end got cut open by a simple run from 34-year-old Reggie Lamb, kind of speaking to the level of where this game was at.
00:55:55
Speaker
But he cut it back to his right foot for 2-1 Bermuda win, and they hung on to the stretch. um Their defense is not particularly good, and Cuba's attack was not very good either. But Bermuda are through the next round where they are almost and where they are assuredly the worst team there.
00:56:06
Speaker
But hey, that's a really good result for them. Yeah, and pretty disappointing for Cuba, right? like Yeah. you You'd expect them to get to the next round, even if either of these teams would have been and Bermuda will be fodder. But but that's a big one. Actually, I'm sure in Bermuda, they're um you know pretty very proud of that.
00:56:25
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. So that sets us up for where I think things are going to get really good in CONCACAF. We've gotten rid of the teams that are in the midst of projects attempting to get better, I think is the is the nice way of of saying it.
00:56:38
Speaker
Related note, Amit, we were way under on the goals on our Saturday CONCACAF spectacular. Our POT5 teams put in some really good performances on on Saturday. None of them scored, but they put in some pretty good defensive shifts.
00:56:51
Speaker
And kept on the under for those pot one, pot five matches. But again, CONCACAF round three draw was held last night. We will have a full preview of this so in September, but very quickly. Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Suriname in group an all-Caribbean Group B with Jamaica, Curaçao, Trinidad, and Tobago, and Bermuda.
00:57:09
Speaker
And in Group C, Costa Rica, Honduras, ai Haiti, and Nicaragua. Haiti were 5-1 losers against Curaçao in a game that didn't actually matter, but is slightly concerning nonetheless. I don't know. We'll see what to make of that, maybe based on what happens at the upcoming Gold Cup.
00:57:24
Speaker
Again, the teams that finish first in those groups in CONCACAF will go directly to the World Cup. The best two of the three second-place teams will advance the Intercontinental Playoff. I think the favorites here, Amit, are still favored, but I also think everybody but Bermuda can talk themselves into second place.
00:57:40
Speaker
Yeah, I think that's fair. I think ah probably a win for Honduras to avoid Panama, probably a loss, lost but tough for El Salvador to get Panama. And I certainly think Curaçao has got a love that Haiti and Jamaica are, know, probably They might think I'm not going to do the whole talk myself into Kurosawa thing. Let's start with second. But you've got to feel pretty good for Kurosawa as well. And I'm sure Haiti is fine wherever they are.
00:58:05
Speaker
um We'll see. I mean, it's going to be fun. I think, like you said, these are going be some really good atmosphere, some good matches. um And yeah, I think Nicaragua and Suriname... were big they're going to have to play them, right? We're going to see, going to see what they can get. um How many matches each?
00:58:20
Speaker
It's yeah. So it's home and away. So it's six. Yeah. So it'll be, it'll be a fun, fun. I'm, I'm with you. I think the top three should get through, but I'm, I don't, it certainly will not be easy sailing for all three. I feel pretty confident in that.
00:58:33
Speaker
Yeah, the interesting thing here is there's no one dominant team, right? That you just feel, okay, like there's just a simple gap here. I think Panama are probably the best team left, and I think they also got a pretty favorable draw. I think El Salvador was probably the worst team in pot two.
00:58:49
Speaker
I don't know about Guatemala. I think Suriname actually probably really liked their draw as well with El Salvador and Guatemala. Yeah, they might like those two. Yeah, yeah. as far as As far as finishing second there. But other than Panama, I don't think you're really, and even Panama, i don't know that you're trusting any of these teams to run away with it. And that will make for good drama and good atmosphere. So the good stuff in CONCACAF is yet to come. We'll have a full preview of that in September.
00:59:11
Speaker
Also in September, as we mentioned, the rest of Europe finally debuts. We get African qualifiers back. Get that opening window of round three in CockCalf. And we get the last match day in Commonwealth. We'll have a full slate of September going on.
00:59:24
Speaker
All right. That's it for us on this edition of the World Cup After Dark podcast. There will be more from us, though, especially if you're one of our Patreon subscribers. We'll have a podcast looking at whatever is going on with the United States men's national team one year out from the World Cup.
00:59:37
Speaker
So if you're a Patreon subscriber, be on the lookout for that in the coming days. If you are not, but would like to be, you can do so at patreon.com slash WCAD. Three bucks a month. You support what we do here.
00:59:48
Speaker
Access to subscriber-only episodes and also access to the World Cup qualification master spreadsheet, which will continue to come in handy as we hit September, October, and November with lots of matches and also lots of matches that maybe don't matter. and So you can know where to best allot your time.
01:00:04
Speaker
right. For a minute, I'm Austin. We will see you guys next time. We'll be back at some point during the summer. and We'll probably have some Gold Cup thoughts. We've got some other bigger picture podcasts that maybe this would be a good time to do. We can have that Carlo Ancelotti Brazil talk.
01:00:16
Speaker
We can figure out whatever is going on with England. We can talk about Mexico and Canada. So there'll still be a lot coming from us between now and September. But again, thanks for listening as always, and we'll talk soon.