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WCAD 3-43: 2025 AFCON Preview
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Austin and Amit come together for a festive season preview of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. From favorites Morocco & Senegal to second-tier contenders like Ivory Coast and Algeria and unknowns like Nigeria and DR Congo, the guys cover it all, including the drama surrounding Cameroon heading into the tournament.
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Transcript
Introduction & AFCON Overview
00:00:01
Speaker
I feel like I should like start the show with a Christmas carol or something. It's December 17th and we've got a world cup after dark podcast. And you know why I'm in? Cause we got a little holiday AFCON action for you.
00:00:13
Speaker
What a treat for all the international soccer heads out there. ah you You thought it's a world cup year. You thought qualifying was done and you know, we were just going to get our draw and go our merry way, but no, we've been, we've been gifted some, some delightful soccer in Morocco for the next month or so.
00:00:30
Speaker
You've got a Christmas Eve calendar of Burkina Faso against Equatorial Guinea, Algeria, Sudan, Ivory Coast, Mozambique, Cameroon, Gabon. We don't know which Cameroon is going to show up because there might be two of them. It couldn't be better.
00:00:45
Speaker
Could not be better.
AFCON Timing & World Cup Preparation Debate
00:00:46
Speaker
just Just shout out to CAF for giving us this treat, for giving us this tournament and these matchups. let's This is going to be a blast.
00:00:55
Speaker
So let's let's start the World Cup After Dark AFCON preview show. My name is Austin Miller. He is a bit Malik. By unpacking why we are playing in AFCON at this time, because as you alluded to a bit, it's a bit odd, right? We're six months away from the World Cup, and we just have a major international tournament dropped into our laps. So AFCON is an off-cycle tournament that happens every two years.
00:01:16
Speaker
It was supposed to have gotten away from its previously traditional December-January calendar. But that didn't happen because of the FIFA Club World Cup. So this is the 2025 AFCON that was supposed to have taken place in June and July.
00:01:29
Speaker
That didn't because of the Club World Cup. It's now taking place now. And it's also taking place slightly earlier than it usually does because there's a UEFA Champions League fixture at the end of January. And clubs did not want to miss their players. So we have an AFCON dropped into our laps.
00:01:43
Speaker
It is taking place in Morocco because, of course, it's taking place in Morocco. What in African soccer doesn't take place in Morocco in this day and age? And admit, I think the 30,000 foot view of everything here is it is a very intriguing proposition.
00:02:00
Speaker
right We have the major tournament of all major tournaments coming in June and July. And that is what every one of these African team wants. We also have a title sitting right in front of them right now that they can take.
00:02:13
Speaker
And we have momentum from World Cup qualification that could play a role, but maybe doesn't. We have AFCON in all of its glory being AFCON because this is the African tournament, right?
00:02:24
Speaker
African things happen at this tournament. And so all of that put together means... I have no idea what we can expect over the next month, but I know we're going to enjoy it. Yeah, it's a great top-level view. It's confusing. I think the first question, right, you're're you're thinking, is this good or bad for the teams that are yeah that are playing the World Cup? And it's it's murky, right? We're not going to know until it's June and the teams, you know, who... Who doesn't get that injured in this tournament? Who's looking good? And it's hard to say, right? You could read it as all these matches are going to help these teams get high-level experience.
00:02:59
Speaker
You know, for some of these groups, they're going to get some extra chemistry. It's going to be really helpful when reps at an international stage are hard to come by, especially against opposition. Then, of course, there's the obvious, you know, more cynical reading, like you're putting...
00:03:12
Speaker
you know, more risks at a you know, perhaps more motivated level. these These guys are going to play, would have played club matches, right? And then I think that's one thing that you mentioned that, you know, you can't just be like,
00:03:24
Speaker
players exist in bubble wrap between now and June. That's, that's not true. Players are going to play soccer, but is there something more intense about a international tournament where certainly AFCON has always been a very passionate tournament? And we know that, um, that we've seen that all the time. So really, really hard to parse. And I, while we're here, you know, I'm just going to say off the top, right.
00:03:46
Speaker
ah my my gut feeling My gut feeling is I think it's not great for these teams to be to be playing such a high level. At this time, where where club soccer is a little bit less intense, and I certainly think the extra timing at ah extra time in the knockout rounds is a big factor in that. And just the injury potential.
00:04:07
Speaker
I understand players can get injured all the time, but you even just look at those World Cup qualifiers in the playoffs, right? Those Nigeria-Gabon matches, DRC-Nigeria
Team Participation & Key Absences
00:04:18
Speaker
matches. And just how brutal those were, that's the type of soccer that happens at the business end of these tournaments. So I'm i'm skeptical um of ah of of it in that sense, in the World Cup sense. In the AFCON matters, and I'm looking forward to great soccer sense, oh, I'm i'm really, really excited. And I'm hoping that enough teams, you know, see this as ah as a...
00:04:41
Speaker
Big opportunity for them. I'm just really, really fingers crossed that these teams don't come away with this and off worse for the World to Cup because that'd be a bummer for for everyone, really. And I really want the African teams to play well at the World Cup so people can see how good this this level has gotten. I think there are some really, really good teams in this AFCON that can do a lot of damage at the World Cup.
00:05:02
Speaker
And I think another thing that's very interesting is like, I think you made a fantastic point. We won't know how much this mattered or doesn't matter until we get to June and July. And then we can take our hindsight 2020 conclusions. Right. And like, Oh, this really mattered for team X because look at how good they're now playing now. And and I don't know,
00:05:22
Speaker
what the final equation of that all is going to be. I think it's very odd to stick a whole major tournament momentum cycle six months away from the majorest of tournament momentum cycles. And I don't know exactly how that's going to play. And I don't know what that looks like. I think the injury risk is real.
00:05:39
Speaker
I also agree with the general point that players were going to play anyway. I think I'm kind of leading towards the It will matter, but not that much, and I don't really know how, which is a fantastic point to make, I think.
00:05:51
Speaker
Well, i I agree with you in the sense that like we just we don't know, and that's going to be interesting. And certainly, I think some even for for those teams, there's nuggets in here that are going to be different for everyone, right? Dear Congo is playing in March. Yeah. hey who or You know, one must win game. And so that is its own thing. It's very hard to to parse that out.
00:06:14
Speaker
And then you look at there's two teams that aren't here that are in the World Cup, Ghana and Cape Verde, which on the whole, I think, weakens this AFCON field and that we're going to talk about in a second. And then, of course, there's two really, really good teams here in AFCON that didn't qualify. And really good, Austin is giving me the, don't know about really good, Nigerian Cameroon. I'm going to agree on Cameroon. Let's go with traditional African powers, right? Let's do it that way. Yeah, but what makes Nigeria so funny all the time, and funny like from our point of view, is that they literally made the final of the 2024 AFCON, then crashed out of the World Cup. So...
00:06:51
Speaker
All of those things just just always make AFCON kind of a ah the surprise box of international tournaments that we always really enjoy. This one is going to have more surprises for us because there's just so many variables.
00:07:04
Speaker
And it's happening in a condensed timeframe. It's happening at a weird timeframe of the year. It's all of that thrown in together and out we get a major tournament, which I think on the whole, as you said, you and I are both very excited for. So you said it a bit. We've got 24 teams here at the AFCON.
00:07:19
Speaker
They're divided into six groups of four. 16 of them will make the round of 16. That means the top two in each of the six groups plus four of the six third place teams. That means that we'll get an early preview at a third-place table. We'll get to figure out where the line is, all of that, etc.
00:07:34
Speaker
Of the African World Cup teams, Morocco are in Group A. Egypt and South Africa share Group B. Tunisia are in Group C. Senegal and DR Congo, who of course are in the playoff, are in Group D. Algeria in Group E. Ivory Coast in Group F. Cameroon will also be in Group F. Nigeria will be in Group C. Those are important to note. And as you said, Amit, we have two African World Cup teams that aren't even among the top 24 teams in Africa when it comes to making the AFCON. That's Cape Verde, who finished last place in a qualifying group with Egypt, Botswana, and 2023 AFCON Heroes Mauritania. And Ghana, who managed it to finish last place in an AFCON qualifying group of Angola, Sudan, and Niger with zero wins, three draws, and three losses.
00:08:19
Speaker
Sure. Those teams aren't going to be here. As you said, that affects the overall talent level of
Underdogs & Dark Horses in the Tournament
00:08:25
Speaker
this tournament. I don't think it changes my long-term perspective of these two teams because that AFCON failure of qualifying has already passed, right? Like, i've already moved past that and made the World Cup.
00:08:36
Speaker
We'll see Ghana. We'll see Cape Verde in June. Let's worry about them then. Yeah, good way to put it. I think... there's a case for Cape Verde. Like this could have helped them for Ghana. I think is exactly as you said, not going to change anything.
00:08:49
Speaker
They, they, they are what they are and that's fine. Um, so overall fine. And I do think, you know, respect to Mortenia who gave us a delight last time. i think they'll be missed. They will be missed. And that's the thing about Afcon is we've got those teams and then we've got the second tier of African teams, which is a mixed bag of almost World Cup qualifiers like Mali. Obviously, we talked about Cameroon, Nigeria, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, who could have been there with a bit more luck for Kina Faso. And then you've got the African underdogs, right? Comoros, who gave us such a thrill in World Cup qualifying. We've got Zimbabwe and Angola and their defensive ways of playing.
00:09:24
Speaker
Uganda and Tanzania are here. Botswana, Sudan, who also had a great run in World Cup qualifying. And Mozambique rounds out the field. It's a mixed bag of teams. Let's talk about the teams, Amit, that we think have the highest chance of playing an impact on this tournament. So let's start.
00:09:40
Speaker
with three of the African World Cup teams that we have in our second tier, if you will. Actually, it's probably our third tier of AFCON contenders. That's Tunisia, South Africa, and Egypt.
00:09:52
Speaker
Different equation for all three of these teams. As I mentioned, Egypt and South Africa will share a group in Group B alongside Angola and Zimbabwe. Tunisia are in Group C alongside Nigeria and then Uganda and Tanzania. Let's start with Tunisia.
00:10:05
Speaker
They are what we think they are, and that is the sixth or seventh best team in Africa with a very low ceiling and a very high floor and a very unentertaining way of playing football.
00:10:17
Speaker
That's the best way to put it. They use the ball, but they also defend. They're not overly physical. Everything you just said. i think this is interesting data points for us, for them, because you get ah you get a very good level game in your group
Favorites & Strong Contenders
00:10:32
Speaker
stage against Nigeria. And I think that'll tell us a lot about if we need to kind of shift our expectations for them. i think this is the type of team that you're going to see probably make a quarterfinal and lose to someone a little better.
00:10:45
Speaker
Now, if they have anything in them to surprise us, we will certainly take that into consideration. But it's just the team we've kind of known for a long time now, right? Years and years of of watching them.
00:10:58
Speaker
you nailed it, right? High, high floor, low ceiling. So can they, can they change that expectation for us? And you look at the player pool and it's just, just not difference makers. And and they're just, you know, they're going to defend.
00:11:11
Speaker
So let's see. And I do think the group is, is nice for them in terms of their third and fourth best teams in the group are Uganda and Tanzania. That should be a pretty straightforward path to, to a knockout game. And then we'll see, you know, you hope you get a winnable round of 32 Yeah. Round of 16. He's in World Cup mode. He's a World Cup mode already. The thing about Tunisia is this type of style can work at a major tournament. And it can also work at a major tournament where the talent level tops out at Morocco. Right? And after Morocco, there's a talent level dip.
00:11:43
Speaker
This can work. This style can get you far when you don't have to get through something like France or Argentina or Spain, right? Mucking up a game against a team that is good but not incredible is a lot easier than mucking up a game against an incredible team.
00:11:57
Speaker
Tunisia can make noise because this type of style can always make noise in an international tournament, but it's not the preferred way to play and it's not going to be the most successful way to play. Agreed. And if you're if you're really trying to get some Tunisia stock on your side, which which wouldn't be us, if they can find a way to beat Nigeria in this group, then their path towards ah you know a semifinal goes through Algeria. And I think two teams that are a bit similar, that's yeah nice for Tunisia.
00:12:24
Speaker
Again, we're going to learn a lot from Tunisia-Nigeria. Another team that is in that same kind of mold, but has bigger names, bigger following, and thus is gets a bigger billing is Egypt, right? That style, very similar. It's just it comes with Mo Salah and whatever's going on with Liverpool or not going on with Liverpool, wherever he's at, like as far as still being good-wise. Egypt probably has a bit higher of a ceiling, but it's not by much. And maybe their floor is a bit higher. But again, Egypt is a well-known package at this type of level. Again, they can have success at this tournament, but they're not in my first or even second group of favorites.
00:13:05
Speaker
Yeah, well said. And it starts with the fact that the rest of the squad outside Mo Salah is 90% based in Egypt, which again, we learned at the Club World Cup, which not not this podcast purview, was very solid, right? They're not bad players. We're not going to say like domestic base equals bad. We've learned that lesson. But it's just not a lot of difference makers. And then you want to talk about where is Mo Salah's level? It's tricky, right? i don't I certainly don't think he's at the elite, elite level. But in a tournament like this, he's certainly...
00:13:35
Speaker
one of the best players on the field when he steps off, steps on the field. It's really interesting. and And we know they're very defensive. They're very boring. It's not really exciting stuff. But there's always the idea that what if he scores a a heater or two and then you get some momentum that works in a major tournament. And we've seen Egypt, you know, kind of grind their way to a knockout run before. This is a team that can make a final in an AFCON if everything goes their way. It will be through multiple penalty shootouts. Like, that's just how they go. They cannot score two goals in a game. Lots of laser players. Yeah. So, like...
00:14:11
Speaker
Again, they're just in that tier of you you expect to see them in a quarterfinal. It would take you know upsetting a better team in a penalty shootout to to advance. And then to get to more levels, they need to do that again. So that's just kind of the ceiling on this team. But but I think you know just you know from from AFCON excitement, there is some buzz around Mo Salah's entire team.
00:14:35
Speaker
being right now. And I think he needs for himself to to kind of show, right, that he still is a quality player. And had a great comparison from for him, for me, is Youngmin Sun, who went to MLS, still very, very good in MLS, still has the level. At no point is Mo Salah a bad player right now. Yeah, he may have lost a Premier League step for Liverpool, one of the top few clubs in the world. He's still very, very good. So that's, I think, I think he's motivated. Let's see what that looks like for Egypt and for him at this age, I think he's very invested in getting the most out of every run with Egypt.
00:15:08
Speaker
And they share a group of it with South Africa, who think are a very interesting team in this whole complex because they are not the Tunisia Egypt style of bucket up and see what happens. But they also lack the top tier quality that I think we see from the other World Cup teams in Africa, leaving Cape Verde side, who again, we are because they're not at the AFCON. This I think is going to be very, very interesting because to see what happens between South Africa and Egypt, to see what happens in the knockout stage between these two teams, because the paths are very, very different for who wins this group and who finishes in second. And it feels like this should be a very good measuring stick for South Africa. And I think we'll go a long way towards shaping our opinion of them
00:15:51
Speaker
looking towards the World Cup where we think, okay, is this just a simple, fun story that can play a little bit? Or is this a team that can actually cause bigger teams problems outside of the whole Nigeria situation and World Cup qualifying, which Nigeria caused themselves problems and you take advantage, which look is a good thing to do. But let's see what happens when South Africa have to actually take
Potential Outcomes & Speculations
00:16:11
Speaker
the game to somebody and cause problems. Can they do it?
00:16:13
Speaker
This tournament's going to tell us that, and that's going to shape a lot of our view towards June. That's the best way to put it. I'm really excited to find out. And I just think, again, qualifying is a different beast than three games of a group, as you said perfectly. And I think you nailed why they got out of qualifying is it was they they held serve where Nigeria didn't. they I think head to head versus Nigeria was not like they were some magically better team. So let's see, as you said exactly.
00:16:40
Speaker
Can you beat Egypt? Great game. Great game. Fascinating game. And if they can, then things are a lot different for them. um yeah I think our our opinion of South Africa has gone up and down over the years, and we know they're a solid team. I have confidence in them. But this is going to be interesting in terms of what their real level is. I i would say they're maybe 55%, 60% favorites against Egypt in one game. Let's find out.
00:17:06
Speaker
Yeah, and South Africa are very much in the cross-confederation comparison here. They're the Uzbekistan-ish of Africa, right? like They are the very clear third-ish tier of African teams, good enough to make the World Cup. When nine teams make the World Cup, again, they took advantage of their opportunities, but I'm curious to see if that talent can kind of pop up a bit, right? there There's players here. They've got Lyle Foster who plays in the Premier League for Burley. They have a bunch of players playing in South Africa, which is the best domestic league in Africa, right? They've got Makpona. They've got Makwena. There are good players here. Let's see what they do in a major tournament. I'm intrigued. Before a minute we get into the teams that I think are probably the six favorites or at least the five favorites and also a team that we have to talk about in Cameroon,
00:17:54
Speaker
Potentially some more spoilers here from AFCON, right? Mali, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Angola, Zimbabwe. Who are you buying from this kind of fourth tier group of teams to make run? Because if we know one thing about AFCON, somebody always makes a run and there's also no way of predicting it before the tournament.
00:18:12
Speaker
Great way to describe it. And especially with the third place, like yeah a lot of these teams could be playing in a big game in the round of 16 and back themselves to get a result. So we're going to talk about this bracket as we go on, but just, just, just know, like it's the bracket will never go the way you think it's go. And these are exactly the types of spoilers, right?
00:18:32
Speaker
You got to start with Gabon. they're They're in a tough group, right? Their group is Ivory Coast and Cameroon. So, you know, who knows? But even in third place, that is a big circle team you don't want to see yeah in the in the round of 16. Let's see what happens with Aubameyang's health, right? That I think is the yeah biggest question for them. He's not going to play in the first game. He's obviously going try everything he can do to get further in this tournament.
00:18:54
Speaker
Gabon with Aubameyang in the round of 16, if I'm a first place team and that's the third place team that spits out, I'm going to be pretty disappointed. Correct. that's That's a tough matchup because they can just force you to defend. um We saw against Nigeria, they just gave him a good game. They ran out of legs. They didn't have the same depth as the big teams, but but they're up for it. And obviously, you know, he's not as good as Aubameyang quite in terms of class, but Denny Buonga is a very, very good MLS striker. And we've seen Gabon over the years just be solid. So I think that's the biggest one.
00:19:27
Speaker
Then it's my old my old hype train for Mali. I really thought they could have gotten out of their World Cup group. I thought they were team that could make a run at the last AFCON. There's always potential in that team, right? It's a good midfield. It's ah it's a good program. But they don't necessarily have that killer instinct. If everything went well for them, yes, that's a potential surprise. I think the the way things shook out for them is not the best.
00:19:51
Speaker
um But, you know, Group A, they could certainly be second. They could be first, and who knows? You've got Burkina Faso as well, who were a team that got close in African World Cup qualifying, right? They were one goal away from making the playoffs. They got pipped by Nigeria in that in that last second.
00:20:07
Speaker
um They have probably a favorable group with Algeria as their seeded team in the group, who is certainly, as far as seeded team goes, not the most ungettable. They've got Sudan and Equatorial Guinea. Let's see from them. And I want to put in a shout for Angola, who are not great, but are among the African teams that are pretty good at organizing themselves as well and mucking up a game. They made the quarterfinals in 2023. They drew six of their 10 World Cup qualifiers.
00:20:35
Speaker
And their group, I think, is gettable because, again, they're playing Egypt, who haven't seen a game that they can't muck, and South Africa, who are not among the highest level teams, and then Zimbabwe, who are also fellow muckers. Look, Angola can get to the quarterfinals by winning one game, right? That can happen. We've seen that happen before.
00:20:51
Speaker
Is it right of me to back a team to go on an AFCON run, two AFCONs in a row? Probably not, but let's see. That's where I think I'm going to put a little bit of my stock. And then again, we've got all the other teams that we haven't really talked about. Somebody is going to be a story. Let's see who it is.
00:21:06
Speaker
Yeah, I'll throw in another shout for sudan or Benin, teams that I think like Angola could could break great. And then one other note on Burkina Faso, it's ah it's a good squad. We kind of short charge them, change them a little bit because they kind of just miss World Cup qualifying, but there are players there. There are good players. They've got Watara at Brentford, Tapsoba at Bayer Leverkusen.
00:21:29
Speaker
That's a solid team. And as you said, an okay group, Algeria-Burkina Faso will be a good game. And then we'll we'll we'll maybe have a better handle on if there are potential big, big spoilers here. Benin, a good shout as well. They had a good World Cup qualification campaign, just fell short. I'm also curious. I think we, and I mean we as in you and I, and also we as an in the general public, will probably fall into, oh, but they were so good at World Cup qualifying. Why were they bad at AFCON? Or, oh, they were so bad World Cup qualifying. Why were they good at AFCON? You just have to put that aside and understand that sometimes these things just don't carry over like we think they do.
00:22:01
Speaker
And Benin could come out and lose all three games because it's an AFCON. And are the things that's happened. All let's talk favorites a minute. Let's talk about the best teams on the continent, the teams that we most expect to be there.
00:22:13
Speaker
I think the conversation starts. It doesn't end, but it definitely starts with the host country, at Morocco. They are still the best squad in Africa. World Cup semifinalists in 2022. They had a disappointing AFCON campaign on the back end of that that ended prematurely, but they are on home soil.
00:22:32
Speaker
They have the best team. They have the home soil advantage. They are favorites. Let's see if they can finish it all. Well-framed, well-put. And I think ah just comparison, we like to do these. They're kind of like the Spain of Africa.
00:22:46
Speaker
They're going to use the ball. They're going to play the slickest football. It's going to be aesthetically pleasing when it comes to knockout play. Yeah. Teams are like, all right, that's cute. Here's 10 guys in the box, like break us down. And that's what we saw in the last AFCON where they kind of went out early. But Which was also the last time that Morocco faced any sort of adversity, right? They just breezed through World Cup qualifying. They had the easiest group and they made it look like the easiest group. They breezed through AFCON qualifying because they were already qualified and and had an easy group there.
00:23:15
Speaker
We haven't really seen Morocco be tested by anybody over a long stretch of time. So what is going to happen? And that's why I think this could actually be very, very good for Morocco with an eye towards the World Cup.
00:23:27
Speaker
What happens when they get in that quarterfinal match and it's, you know, whoever it is on the other side that is making life difficult, how do they respond in a situation that they haven't really been in lately?
00:23:39
Speaker
Yeah, a lot of these teams have had to get to their desperation gear at some point in the last two years, basically. And you nailed it. They haven't. So really, really interesting. I know Hakimi is kind of dealing with the health issues. He's in the squad. you know, I think we might see him. But what makes this team so good is that I was worried if you took Hakimi out of the squad, like, oh, no, it's so much worse. Not really the case, right? There's a lot, a lot of talent here. um So this is going to be really fun. And I think what the type of team that you and I really want to see Morocco play against is a Senegal, an Ivory Coast, a Nigeria. And can you go up against a team that's ostensibly more physical than you, but you can kind of solve those problems on the field? We know manager Waleed Rogagri is really, really good, like actually at solving in-game problems. So I think this is really nice for them. They don't have to win. Like truly, if they I think the media is saying must win for Morocco.
00:24:40
Speaker
They're at home. They're the best team. But I'd rather see them play a really high-level game and like learn from kind of what they need to do. It's hard, these one-off games. If they go out the way they did the last time, yes, I'd be disappointed. But if they come up against one of those teams, play well, just lose, I think there's no shame in that.
00:24:58
Speaker
We'll see. Certainly an opportunity to bring a title on home soil, I think, probably means a lot to Morocco. So they've got to be the favorites, right? They do have to be the favorites, but if there is a second favorite, I think it's Senegal, who i think are probably the second best team in Africa and have, I don't want to say they have that major tournament style, but they have that major tournament style maybe a bit more than Morocco do, right? They have a stacked midfield of runners. They have a squad that,
00:25:28
Speaker
maybe isn't top to bottom as talented as Morocco, but is pretty darn talented itself. You've got Mendy and goal, Koulibaly, Juve, Saar in defense. If you say gay as a midfield, they've got Pap Saar, they've got Indaye.
00:25:38
Speaker
They've got a lot of options. They've got a lot of players they can throw at you and they can make your life miserable. If you're trying to control the ball in the midfield, they are the second best team in Africa for me. And they are the second favorite at this tournament.
00:25:51
Speaker
When we last saw them at a high-level match, they were down two to DR Congo in World Cup qualifying, and they just found that gear where they just locked the game down, outran DR Congo, and just battered them with chances, and one of their players scored kind of a half chance. That was that time it was Popsar. But then they've just got guys that can do the moment, right?
00:26:12
Speaker
Sadio Mane no longer has to do it, but he can, right? And that's why you have a guy like him in the squad. You've got Nicholas Jackson, who... Hasn't been playing regularly at Chelsea, but it's in there. And then Ismail Assar at Crystal Palace. right this I think in terms of front-line options, probably 1A, maybe 1B you want to talk about. Ivory Coast we're about to talk about. And then, yes, that gear that we've shown. And maybe it's unfair to Morocco, right? That they they didn't get to a World Cup without that gear. so A World Cup semi-final without that gear. But...
00:26:45
Speaker
I think there's that, that's what you're kind of saying is they've got that major tournament feel about them. I agree with you. It's hard to quantify, but there's the the, it's the team that's going to take some beating. They're, they're just not going to go down without you really having to play an outstanding game. And I think that right there gives them a chance. This is a nice draw for them. If it all works out, got it, got to like their chances as well.
00:27:10
Speaker
So we've got Senegal. We've got Morocco. Let's talk about, I think, probably the African team that had the best World Cup qualification campaign outside of Morocco, and that's Ivory Coast. They are also the defending champions. They gave us the story of Havcon last time around, where they fired their manager after the group stage, rebounded, snuck in as a third-place team, and then went on and won the whole darn tournament.
00:27:32
Speaker
It is a mean spine. They are so difficult to play against. They are very good defensively. And I think there may be a bit underestimated going into this tournament, particularly if you look at the betting odds, which we often do to kind of get the general sentiment of things. Ivory Coast are a lot further down than I would have expected.
00:27:49
Speaker
Really? we're Were they like fifth, sixth? Fifth or sixth, yeah. Yeah, that's that's interesting, right? They just won. i mean, just two years ago. And they had a great campaign.
00:28:00
Speaker
You know, there's here. Here's here's the the case against. Right. They just play such low event style. Right. they They don't like giving up goals. They had that helped them the last tournament that helped the World Cup qualifying.
00:28:12
Speaker
That's hard to stick. Right. To just not give up goals in soccer. It doesn't work like that. Yeah. the better Eventually, you're going to run into teams that score it. Right. Like you're not going to play, you know, Seychelles and whoever they play the World Cup. Eventually, somebody better than Gabon is going to come along.
00:28:28
Speaker
Let's see what happens. Right. And so then we'll see how their defense is tested. But the defensive personnel is good. And specifically, I'm thinking about the other best teams here.
00:28:41
Speaker
Morocco, Senegal, then Nigeria... They're man for man. Their defense is just so good at defending the box.
00:28:52
Speaker
Maybe not the the best with the ball, maybe not the slickest, but defending the box, they're very good at. And their midfield also is that. And if anything, the criticism you could say is they don't create enough going forward.
00:29:04
Speaker
That is what could hurt them. But it's just hard to score against. So I don't know. Maybe we're i'm we're too result biased that we've seen this work in Africa where generally if you can defend, you can get results.
00:29:17
Speaker
It could have just been it worked for them. And this time, what it happens when they need to get a goal? And then maybe they're not built to play that. that's That's the case against them. But i see them as I see them as a pretty clear third favorite and even perhaps second if you if you really like whats what's going on with what they're doing.
00:29:34
Speaker
you ah You know where they're going go if they need a goal? You know who's back in the team? That's Wilfred Zaha of it. Back in the Ivory Coast setup. Where did he come from? ah he's been So I've seen a little bit of Wilfred Zaha at Charlotte FC, and it's just been delightful. He just hangs around and trolls like other MLS fan bases. He does about nothing for 80 minutes of the game. And for 10 minutes, not even, the ball goes through him, and he's just savoring going against MLS back lines.
00:30:02
Speaker
I think he's still got the level in him. Again, in a tournament like this, he might even be a super sub. You don't want him to do a lot of running, but he's got that quality. And then also, you know, i think what's different for Ivory Coast than even the last two cycles we've seen them is they've got Ahmad, who's at Manchester United, really, really tricky winger. And they've got Diamande, who's at RB Leipzig. We know they produce kind of interesting...
00:30:26
Speaker
prospects. He's a prospect, but he's a dribbly guy. They're missing so Simon Adingara at Brighton, who is normally their dribbly guy. So there's going to be some pressure on those guys to create. But if you're asking, well, hey, how does this team that doesn't put a lot of numbers in attack score goals?
00:30:41
Speaker
there's some hype. There's some hype that they could, you know, catch fire. So ah there's there's a there's a chance here. Let's see. i think Sebastian Allaire did just enough at the last AFCON to help them get over the line.
00:30:54
Speaker
He's kind of a bit bitd over the hump, we can say at Dortmund, not like the most prolific, but that experience never leaves you at a major tournament, right? there So you can see the question marks, but I like the squad.
00:31:06
Speaker
So I think the thing that's interesting for them, their style of play in World Cup qualifying was exactly the same in every game. We're going to try and score in the first 10 minutes. And guess what? Once we score, we don't give up goals. That's what they did. That's what they did And you said it so well, so eloquently earlier.
00:31:20
Speaker
That just isn't sustainable. It doesn't stick. Right. At some point, even the bet, like you're going to have to give up goals. I don't think Ivory Coast are just going to get through this tournament scoring in the first 10 minutes and then seeing what happens. So let's see how they respond to being punched to the mouth. Let's see how they respond to going down a goal. But I think the organization and the overall talent is here that they could absolutely be a dangerous team. All right. We've also got Algeria Amit coming from a World Cup qualifying campaign that saw them make it.
00:31:47
Speaker
Why, oh why, Amit, did you, who organized this podcast, what to you has Algeria ahead of Tunisia and Egypt? Because to me, from the general view of it, I feel like Algeria are in that box of grimy North African defensive-based teams that are going to make things ugly but lack the overall talent to make things difficult.
00:32:11
Speaker
Why are you leaning towards putting them more in the Moroccan North African box than the Egypt-Tunisian North African box? Great question. And I think we haven't seen it from them necessarily. Right. And the last time we saw them at a big term, they look kind of stale, right? They were, they looked more like Tunisia, exactly what you're saying, or even Egypt.
00:32:30
Speaker
And I just think they've got some guys who could do stuff on the ball. that they're going to be very hard to defend against like Morocco. I think the question for them is, are they, they're going to play organized defensively like Tunisia and Egypt.
00:32:45
Speaker
Can they do that again for those teams? They're not all as physical. That's a separate question, but I think going forward, We are going to be pleasantly surprised by Algeria. Okay, we know Rion Mahrez is like post prime in Saudi Arabia, just hanging out, having a good time. But you start looking at some of the other players here and there's there's a lot of, you know, kind of really good ballplayers playing in Europe.
00:33:08
Speaker
And I mean, ballplayers like guys that are good with the ball at their feet. Ait Nori was at Wolves at Man City. This guy is an electric dribbler at the wing back. Really excited for him to cook this tournament. They got a guy at Eintracht Frankfurt, Fahri Schaibi, could be dangerous. And then Ben Sabine is at Dortmund. He might be playing center back where I think he's a little bit less effective than as an outside back. But you start seeing a team where you can you got Maras on one wing, you got Aitnor on the other wing, you got two outside backs. like They can run, they can overload, they can cook.
00:33:39
Speaker
That's a good recipe if the field is fine enough to break down some defenses. Let's see if they can defend. I think that's going to be a challenge for them. But I think there's a chance we could be saying, hey, this team is playing the second most attractive soccer behind Morocco.
00:33:52
Speaker
They also have some good midfielders too, right? Ben Asser, Awar. Awar was at Roma. Now he's not. But there's still quality there. um i'm I'm hopeful, right? And we could come away and be like, ah, this is fodder for 26th summer.
00:34:06
Speaker
Or we could be like, hey, we might have to revise our expectations. I'm i'm planning my my stake here, which is certainly a death knell for e anyone listening to not join me on the Algeria stock. But I'm buying it.
00:34:17
Speaker
let let's let's just Let's just take a quick brief recap of of the Amit Malik stake at the Major League. No, no, no, no, no. Ali, Venezuela. Venezuela. I believe there was an Austria Euro stake that was played. Oh, yeah. i love I like the way they play. dont we I'll be back on that trade.
00:34:35
Speaker
I kind of buy it. Like you sold me a good bag of goods here. Again, I need to see them not be the Algeria that I've come accustomed to, but I think you've presented a case and they also have that wily old veteran attack players that can do things at this tournament, right? You talked about Mahrez. They've got Bunija and they've also got Mohamed Amoura at Wolfsburg who's had a pretty good goal scoring record. He's younger. He's not he' not necessarily that wily old veteran guy.
00:34:59
Speaker
I'm cautiously optimistic here about the case that you've made for Algeria. And the other case is just that the draw is decent for them. yeah That's the other part of it. If you're UK, even if they're not as good as the three teams above them, we're going to talk about the pads here in just a second. It's nice for Algeria to make a run.
00:35:17
Speaker
All right. We've got two teams that fall into the favorites category that did not make the world cup. That is Cameroon and Nigeria. Who do you want to start with a bit? Do you want to start with our favorite completely unconvincing Nigeria side, or do you want to start with the Cameroonian chaos? Yeah.
00:35:33
Speaker
I think it's easier to talk about Nigeria because there's not really a lot to say, right? We we saw this team, the attacking talent is good, exciting, electric, led by Victor Osserman. He dragged them to a final last time they lost in the final.
00:35:47
Speaker
And then this team just kicked itself, tripped itself, shot itself the foot repeatedly in World Cup qualifying, which is the real one. I think there is no, I think this is the real one. They yeah they are that. um I mean, what, what, like,
00:36:02
Speaker
They have a chance because they have the players they have, but they also just cannot be trusted. Yeah, so it would surprise me absolutely zero for Nigeria to win this tournament going away and just looking like the best team in Africa convincing. And it would be like, yeah, that's in their locker too if they need it. I don't know where that was when they played Zimbabwe twice in World Cup qualifying, but look, it was there.
00:36:23
Speaker
And it would also not surprise me at all for this to all just completely fall apart and end in a group stage exit because that is the Nigeria experience. It is Victor Oshman. He is maybe the best player at this tournament. He is probably the best attacking player for sure at this tournament. He can single-handedly will Nigeria pretty far.
00:36:40
Speaker
I don't think he can single-handedly will them to the end. They're going to need some more help. I don't know where that comes from. i think it's interesting that Eric Schell is still the manager at Nigeria after his DR Congo voodoo acquisation accusations. Again, there's not a ton of time to get in new blood. but also like you're the manager of Nigeria. It's not that complicated of a job. Just try and get them to be organized.
00:37:01
Speaker
I have no idea what to expect to them. I think they're going to make this tournament and they're going to be very fun. In a fun, like, Oh, there's a great story way. And also in a fun, like, I love watching this fall apart way.
00:37:14
Speaker
There must see cinema at this point. Like it's just going to be fascinating. Yeah. I think you could tell from both of us, like, They could win. They could crash out. It's going to be interesting. Again, the defensive personnel is there, but they have some help for Osherman. And so let's see. Let's see.
00:37:31
Speaker
Calvin Bassey, I think, is a very, very key player for Nigeria. He can kind of maybe organize that back. We've seen him be a set piece threat before at this type of level. I think he's huge. And then again, the second level of attacking players, if they can provide Oshaman with help and support, i think that would make a big, big difference for them. And let's see what happens when the pressure's up against them in a big knockout match if they are to make it that far.
00:37:52
Speaker
All right, let's talk about Cameroon a bit. They did not make the World Cup. They obviously fell in the World Cup playoff against DR Congo. Since then, it has been a complete mess. Out of Federation, chaos rises, probably more chaos. We've got Samuel Eto'o against Mark Brees, version like 5.0 of this feud. Mark Brees, of course, the Belgian manager Cameroon. Samuel Eto'o, the legendary player who is now the Cameroonian president. Uh, Eto finally fired Brees after the November playoff failures.
00:38:21
Speaker
He named the inexperienced David Pago as manager. Mark Brees, however, responded and said, ah, my contract is with the ministry of sport, not with the FA. So I'm manager until the ministry of sport fires me.
00:38:32
Speaker
Eto says, no, no, no, you're fired. So Eto and Pago announced the AFCON squad. And Mark Brees announces the AFCON squad. They are different squads. They are not the same squad. There are two Cameroonian squads for the AFCON.
00:38:43
Speaker
It appears as though Samuel Eto'o has won out. I don't know what winning in this case means. I don't think it's going to be good because the Eto'o Pago AFCON squad leaves a lot to be desired. It is very uncapped. There's not a lot of star players outside of Carlos Baleva and Brian Mwemo.
00:38:59
Speaker
There's no Vincent Abubakar. There's no Eric Maxim Chupo Moting. There's no Andre Onana. there is a player playing in the sixth tier of Brazilian soccer. Sure. There are rumblings that Eto'o did not call in Abubakar so that Abubakar can't pass Eto'o as Cameroon's all-time leading goal scorer.
00:39:17
Speaker
Mark Brees doesn't have a plane ticket to Morocco. He publicly said, I wait for the Ministry of Sport to send me my plane ticket so I can go coach Morocco. It's like, dude, no, that's not what's going to happen here. This is complete and utter chaos. This is AFCON at its finest. A backlight of Nuhu, Wu, and nobody with more than 10 caps probably isn't it. it I don't think this will suddenly come together and turn into a magic AFCON run, but I'm here for all of it.
00:39:44
Speaker
That's incredible. Incredible stuff from every everyone at Cameroon. Yeah, on the field, just this if it is the squad we think we're getting from Eto'o, it's just not as good. It's leaning towards, like, that's where all of this is. Ending those players have reported to camp. There is a camp, and they've left good players at home.
00:40:06
Speaker
Basically. And already, where there's five good teams and even hungrier teams behind them in that next tier, like, There's just not a lot of difference makers outside of Baleba and Mbwemo, who are great players. I don't think Cameroon's going to just be bad, but to to get results, it's going to be really challenging. They're in a tough group too, right? They could finish third um and have a, to behind Gabon. Even if they're in second, it's going to be tough.
00:40:31
Speaker
listen, like things can break. Right. Right. Like in and for anyone. And certainly we'd be the first to say, you can't just write them off. It would be hilariously funny. If like, look what happened last time a team entered an AFCON, a big name with coaching, like who do that was ivory coast. And then we saw what happened.
00:40:48
Speaker
I don't know what Samuel Eto'o's plan is. I don't know if he's trying to chase that high. I don't think Samuel Eto'o knows what his plan is. so His plan appears to be don't let anybody pass me as the all-time leading goal scorer, which I think he's going to succeed.
00:41:01
Speaker
Right. So he wins, and what does that mean? We're going to see. So, yeah, it's incredibly hard to take this seriously, but it will be fun, and they do have to play, and they – You know, it's just such a big name. They're what the second biggest name in yeah in Africa, right? Or Ghana is not here, but Ivory Coast, them, Nigeria, like they are one of the bluest bloods. And whenever like in any other sport, think about a sport you like when the blue bloods are in chaos. It is fascinating.
00:41:28
Speaker
How about them Cowboys? It would be my suggestion too, right? Like it's that. yeah The recipe here is Mbwemo, right? Like he is the high world-class player that they have here. It's Mbwemo and defensive solidity. Asking that back line for defensive solidity feels maybe like a mistake.
00:41:44
Speaker
Right, right. right, let's talk about some knockout round notes, some paths for the favorites. I mean, I think this is very interesting. We talked about it when we talked about the World Cup draw, right? Senegal would have a path where they would not face a group winner until the semifinal if they are to win their group. All of this, of course, is considering that they win their group.
00:42:01
Speaker
A quarterfinal against maybe Mali, Tunisia, which I think you'd back them in. Morocco has that same sort of path that Senegal have. They would have a quarterfinal against Egypt or South Africa or maybe Cameroon, third place team in the round of 16, assuming that they win their group.
00:42:15
Speaker
Nigeria would also face a third place team if they win their group. Quarterfinal of Algeria DR Congo might be the softest quadrant if things go according to plan. Ivory Coast, if they can win their group, which is the toughest, they would get a runner up and then the winner of the Egypt South Africa group.
00:42:29
Speaker
So there's a lot to be here, right? And this is the famous last words of AFCON. The most likely semifinal pairings, if everything goes according to plan and everybody wins their group, we could be looking at Senegal, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Morocco, and the semifinals.
00:42:45
Speaker
I will put down money right now i admit that that is probably not what we're getting in the semifinals, but it looks so tasty on paper. It does. And a team we didn't even talk about in terms of our tiers and probably slots somewhere around...
00:42:59
Speaker
between Algeria and Tunisia is DR Congo themselves. right um who we they had What's most likely for DR Congo is gonna play Algeria in a round of 16 matchup, and that's a great game, and even if they win that, then they have to play Nigeria. So they're in that fringy tier, they need a lot. It's also just hard to imagine them being at this level. Yeah, I could see DR Congo kind of like taking a pass. on this AFCON, right? We got through November. It was difficult. We have March to get through. We're favored to get through. This might be just a step back major tournament that can all be forgiven if they played well in March.
00:43:38
Speaker
Agreed. And then to your point, I think, first of all, if they all, maybe one of these teams won't win their group, then we're already, we're already off the rails, off the playbook. But then at that point, I think there are some good matchups here, right? It's just so unlikely in knockout soccer. We we say this all the time that it's all going to go to plan. Let's see.
00:43:58
Speaker
Let's see. um It would be a tasty semifinals, but I think there's a lot of teams we named that we kind of said are dangerous. Are they all just going to go quietly in a round of 16? Unlikely.
00:44:10
Speaker
no Unlikely. This is the AFCON. I've watched this tournament. I've seen how it is. It's going to be really fun. I think you and i are both excited for it. Where are you putting your pick here for the tournament? Yeah, I, you know, I think Senegal is my team this tournament. I think Senegal-Morocco is my most likely final. um Let's see. Let's see. um Senegal winning a major final on the road against Morocco would be a fantastic story. The atmosphere for that final is going to be incredible.
00:44:39
Speaker
I think I am buying Morocco. I'm picking the the favorite. They have not won the AFCON since 1976. That is a very, very long time for one of the traditional African powers for what you and I think is the best team in Africa. I think they get it done here. I think...
00:44:55
Speaker
They get over the line in a way that they couldn't in 2023. And I, for one, cannot wait to watch it. Amit and I will be back at some point in the group stage. I don't know when that will be.
00:45:06
Speaker
We'll update you on things during the group stage. We'll definitely have a knockout round preview. We'll certainly be plugged in for the knockouts. And look, just enjoy the AFCON-ness of this all because it is a great major international tournament and it is one that we are certainly excited for If you like what we do here at the World Cup After Dark Podcast, you can support us by going to patreon.com slash WCAD. $3 a month, you get access to Patreon subscriber-only shows. We'll certainly have a few of those during this AFCON. So be sure to support us there, get access to those shows, and you can also like, rate, review, all that fun stuff, and let the people know because it's major tournament time and we are six months out from a World Cup. For a minute, I am Austin. We will talk to you guys next time.