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WCAD 3-35: September CONMEBOL, CAF & UEFA Preview
63 Plays13 days ago
Amit and Austin preview the battle for seventh place in CONMEBOL Qualifying between Venezuela & Bolivia, break down a huge slate of matches in CAF, and take stock of UEFA Qualifying as the full compliment of teams get set to take part for the first time this cycle.
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Transcript
Introduction and Overview
00:00:01
Speaker
The calendar has flipped to September, and that means that it is time for World Cup qualification to hit the home stretch. Between now and the middle of November, 29 World Cup tickets will be handed out.
00:00:14
Speaker
Let's do some of it right now. Here in September, we have a couple guaranteed tickets and a couple more that could be in play. It's your big September international window preview here on the World Cup After Dark podcast. My name Austin Miller. I am joined, as always, by Amit Malik.
World Cup Qualification Excitement and Draw Discussion
00:00:29
Speaker
I mean, there's something special about filling in the spreadsheet of qualified teams for the World Cup. And when it's mathematically impossible to be caught, it's just it's just a feeling that you can't top.
00:00:41
Speaker
That's right. it's It's so real. You're just in the field for 2026. You fill out the bracket. You, I don't know, shade in whatever magical sheet spreadsheet coloring book you've got at home.
00:00:53
Speaker
It feels great. it's ah it's It's almost World Cup group stage draw time, too. That's coming in December. That's always a fun experiment when you start putting pots out and and drawing names.
00:01:04
Speaker
ah There
Confederation Qualifiers Preview
00:01:05
Speaker
will be wall over 100 World Cup qualification matches between now and next week. Tuesday, when this international window concludes, we got full sets of action in Connable, UEFA, CAF, and CONCACAF. If you would like to know what is happening in CONCACAF, we put out an episode earlier this week with getting CONCACAF's John Arnold for a full Connable, CONCACAF, I should say, a full CONCACAF, sorry, got my American Confederations mixed up there, a full CONCACAF final round World Cup qualification preview, so be sure to check that out.
00:01:37
Speaker
i mean On today's show, we're going to break down Connable, UEFA, and CAF.
CONMEBOL Drama and Key Matches
00:01:41
Speaker
Let's start. in Connable, where we have the final two match days of Connable World Cup qualifying. What I think we can both kind of say has been a somewhat drama-less qualification cycle in Connable.
00:01:53
Speaker
Argentina, Ecuador, and Brazil are already mathematically qualified. but Uruguay and Paraguay each need one point in this window to mathematically qualify for the World Cup, or they need for Venezuela to not win twice.
00:02:06
Speaker
Colombia need one win, or for Venezuela to lose once. All of that means that the drama as it is in Convo is most likely going to boil down to the fight for seventh place and a spot in the intercontinental playoff between Venezuela and Bolivia.
00:02:23
Speaker
For Venezuela, it's at one point ahead of Bolivia. And that's where the drama is. Amit, is there any reason we should expect Uruguay, Paraguay, or Colombia to have any trouble qualifying in this window?
00:02:35
Speaker
No, I just don't see it. And part of that is because Venezuela would need to win twice. And i just think that first match at Argentina is the least winnable match that you can get in CONMEBOL qualifying.
00:02:48
Speaker
ah And we can even talk about it. This one specifically is particular particularly hard. um But no, I think it should be fine.
00:02:59
Speaker
ah Because Venezuela won't win tight, the other three will be okay. Yeah, it's it's as it has been for so long in this cycle. It's like you need one team to fade, but you also need one team to rise. And there just hasn't been any risers in kind what it's just kind of hit singles throughout this World Cup qualification campaign. and And that has us where we are.
00:03:19
Speaker
You mentioned that Venezuela-Argentina match. That will be Lionel Messi's final competitive game in Argentina. I think Argentina will find the motivation for that one, huh? Yes, that's that's what I alluded to.
00:03:32
Speaker
i i just can't imagine a universe where the record books show that Lionel Messi's last home match in Argentina ever was a loss to Venezuela.
00:03:44
Speaker
Just don't see it. oh yeah i don't I don't know what else to say other than that, right? Like... yeah think He's got to be extra motivated after getting smacked in the league's cup final for Miami to Seattle, right?
00:03:58
Speaker
You think so? I
Intercontinental Playoff Race Analysis: Venezuela vs. Bolivia
00:03:59
Speaker
think he's just mad that he had to fly all the way to Seattle and now he's got to fly all the way to. Yeah. But, you know, probably in all that stuff. Let's start with that as our jumping off point here as we break down the Venezuela-Bolivia fight for seventh in a spot in the Intercontinental Playoff that we have talked about at end on this show plenty of times is a big opportunity for these two nations to make World Cup because they will go into that Intercontinental Playoff favored. Obviously, we'll we'll see who else ends up there. We'll see what the draw spits out.
00:04:26
Speaker
But Venezuela-Bolivia will head to the Intercontinental Playoff, and they will be the team that will be favored to make the World Cup. from their three-team mini bracket. So Venezuela, as you said, Mitt, they play away against Argentina in what we think will be a very difficult match for them.
00:04:39
Speaker
And then they will close up at home against Colombia. We expect Colombia to wrap up qualification in their first match. More on that in a minute. That will make things very interesting for that Venezuela game, provided that Colombia actually take care of business. Because Bolivia, who are the direct competitor here for Venezuela, will start a away against Colombia in Barranquilla.
00:05:01
Speaker
Colombia still need to go and win that match to secure qualification. There's a couple of chaos scenarios that we'll get into in a second.
Strategy and Scenarios in Venezuela-Bolivia Matchup
00:05:07
Speaker
But as long as Colombia beat Bolivia, then it will come down to, most likely, Venezuela and Bolivia on the last match day, where Bolivia are home against Brazil, who have already qualified and have very little interest in playing a World Cup qualification match in El Alto.
00:05:22
Speaker
That doesn't mean anything. Also, I should mention here, I meant that Peru are technically somehow still alive. If they win twice, they play away against Uruguay and at home against Paraguay by big margins. If Venezuela lose twice, if Bolivia get no more than one point, there's a scenario in which Peru actually makes the intercontinental playoff. You buying it?
00:05:42
Speaker
they What you left out is they've also got to make up a six-goal differential to to Venezuela. Can Peru score? can you give me the Peru total goal scored over the last 16 matches?
00:05:56
Speaker
Yeah, not many. is the They've actually, like, I don't, they've been better, but yeah, they've scored six goals. So they have to make up a six, they have to score as many goals in two games as they have in 16, probably.
00:06:09
Speaker
That is what they'll lose. Anyway, I think we could probably leave that scenario to the side. Although if it happens, we'll come back and we'll break it down to the recap show. So let's handicap this Venezuela-Bolivia matchup, right?
00:06:21
Speaker
Venezuela, I think, have to be favored here just by virtue of they have more points, and so status quo is always going to favor them. But that said, it's hard to imagine them winning against Argentina.
00:06:33
Speaker
A draw doesn't actually really do them much against Argentina. At home against a qualified Colombia, i think you're backing Venezuela in that match, but I also don't think you feel super confident about it. Do you?
00:06:47
Speaker
No, the difficulty here is that most likely Colombia is going to take care of Bolivia at home first match day, right? And that makes Colombia and Brazil have nothing to play for on the final match day.
00:07:01
Speaker
So how do you handicap two uninterested teams? And certainly the place I'd start is that Brazil is the less interested of the two because they have to go to El Alto.
00:07:12
Speaker
But does that still mean that Bolivia are guaranteed to win that game? ah But if you're Venezuela, I think you you're thinking you can't count on Brazil to do you a solid.
00:07:25
Speaker
We've got to go get the win against Colombia. And if you told Venezuela... We also get an uninterested team. You know, maybe we don't have the home field advantage, but we have an uninterested team on the last day.
00:07:37
Speaker
Three points gets us through to a playoff. They take that scenario. So there the motivation is all fine from that these two teams perspective. Again, you can't count on what you're in the other ones.
00:07:49
Speaker
Is Colombia uninterested easier than Brazil uninterested because of El Alto? I don't know. I don't know. that's It's kind of an impossible. Truthfully, it's kind of an impossible question to answer.
00:08:00
Speaker
What I will say is that, like, Venezuela can impose a game, whatever their game is, Colombia better than Bolivia can impose anything.
00:08:11
Speaker
There is no imposing for Bolivia. The game is they take pot shots and Brazil will give them 50 pot shots. The math of that is that one of them goes in, right? I mean, the there's certainly a scenario here where neither team picks up any points.
00:08:27
Speaker
Yes. Double zeros. And that is, yeah. yeah I think they'll have to be the favorites, right? Yeah. and Yes. That's no scenario number one. Not in terms of likely, but like that could happen.
00:08:38
Speaker
So number two is that you get into this this really fun scoreboard watching scenario where i maybe Columbia scores or, um, Brazil scores first and then Venezuela gets in. There's a tie and they're on points and one team needs the result and the other team is fine. But then if the result changes, yeah like it gets really dicey and you've got to be scoreboard watching. And again, I hope all the teams are prepared for such scenarios.
00:09:05
Speaker
Um, I'm going to tell you, if there's a CONVOL team that is unprepared for such an arrow, it's absolutely Bolivia for the record. Yeah, 100%, right? And you you say you it gets late, right? that Bolivia's best hope is that Venezuela's at 0-0 or 1-1 feeling kind of safe.
00:09:23
Speaker
Bolivia's tied Then they... then they And then they score late goal. That's their their best path. Because the second Bolivia are leading in that game, Venezuela knows, right? We're already going. I think Venezuela's coming in must win. But they they know they really have to go chase a
Unlikely Outcomes in CONMEBOL
00:09:40
Speaker
goal.
00:09:41
Speaker
Is there any, like, or do Colombia or Brazil care? That's, like, again, it goes back to that at all. Is there any insight there, just vibes, or not really?
00:09:52
Speaker
I mean, I think Colombia-Venezuela is a theoretical rivalry, right? they They share a border. I think there's tension. I don't think Colombia are going to be motivated by the thoughts of of leaving Venezuela out of the World Cup, particularly if Colombia have already won and and set their spot.
00:10:05
Speaker
It's also interesting that it's very unlikely for these two, like, it's a win situation, right? Bolivia needs to win and have Venezuela not win. Venezuela needs to win, right? There's no real other permutation than that.
00:10:18
Speaker
as long as we discard the first set of matches where I think we're both pretty confident that both of these teams will lose. Because goal differential is such as it is, because there's a one-point differential, it's basically just Bolivia needs to win and have Venezuela not win, and Venezuela needs to win.
00:10:33
Speaker
And that's what it comes down to. And it boils down to this, I think for Bolivia, I mean, there's going to be, or for Venezuela, there's going to be so much tension in that home match for Venice, right? We've built up kind of this Venezuela story as we've gone through qualifying.
00:10:47
Speaker
They're going to take the pitch in a home match in which I think they're going to be expected to win. An early goal would do them so many favors. So many. i I agree. That would,
00:10:59
Speaker
really, really be great. And you know, they're going come out like for just 10, 15 minutes and just go at Columbia. The other thing I think certainly helping is that because it's the September international window, the European based players are definitely going to be chilling.
00:11:15
Speaker
in match day two with both of the campaigns wrapped up. i don't even know who Brazil called in, to be ah to be honest. It's quite a group of people. They've left people at home. There's experimental players. It's it's generally European-based because it always is. it's Look, it's not Brazil's best squad, but that might be in their favor because the people might care.
00:11:34
Speaker
Yeah, the the top guys for both Brazil and Colombia with dead games to them in the last games will not be playing. I just think that the Venezuela onslaught that they're going to bring, again, the nightmare is that you you take five shots in the first 30 minutes, great chances, or even three good chances.
00:11:54
Speaker
They don't go in. It gets real sweaty in front of the crowd, right? That's the nightmare scenario. But I don't think Colombia is like going to... ah not like they can't stop that from happening, right? There's just no way to match that intensity in the building.
00:12:12
Speaker
and The Brazil-Bolivia thing is a little, is less because Yeah, youre you know they're not even going to try. Like, there's a question of what's Colombia at? We know Brazil in El Alto. You just, why would you run?
00:12:24
Speaker
sir but like So, like, the thing is, I'm not sure, but like, even if with with the intensity advantage and the altitude advantage, again, I've said said this already, but that doesn't just give Bolivia win because they have they not and they're not good enough to to score and create consistent high-quality chances.
00:12:44
Speaker
Right. And I think, so... I think it's very unlikely that Colombia come from behind against Venezuela. Once they go down, they they play out the motions mostly. I don't don't give up a penalty kick, but like.
00:12:58
Speaker
Yeah, they're not going to be particularly interested in fighting back from a goal deficit. I think Brazil can come from behind against Bolivia just because I think Bolivia is capable of ah doing the things necessary to allow Brazil to do that.
00:13:09
Speaker
So when you put it all together, I think Venezuela are somewhere between clear and heavy favorites. It's a finished seventh here. But I also think you can't really discard a scenario which Venezuela don't put the ball in the net and Bolivia do manage to put the ball in the net and see it out. I think that's something that you have to factor in here. Is that 20% maybe? Sure.
00:13:33
Speaker
Yeah, I agree with you overall. I don't even know what the number 20% sounds about right. And I think you. For Venezuela, you can't go into that game thinking a point gets it done.
00:13:44
Speaker
You just got to assume Bolivia. Yeah. But you assume Bolivia is winning and you need to win. And I think playing with that information advantage for 90 minutes is, again, basically what it comes down to against the Columbia team.
00:13:59
Speaker
That's not it should. yeah it's It's honestly the math is probably closer to 60 or 70 just on pure numbers. But like, again, that you you pencil in 10 percent of Bolivia could not win. Perhaps you, uh, you want some chaos scenarios. You want me to
CAF Qualifiers Preview: Key Teams and Challenges
00:14:13
Speaker
to throw some things at you that could theoretically happen?
00:14:16
Speaker
Sure. why All right. so So chaos scenario number one is that Bolivia go and do something that they already did this international window and they get a result or they win in Baranquilla against Columbia. They actually have to win. this ander and mean I was just going to ask.
00:14:30
Speaker
We should talk about if you're Bolivia, do you try to to take a result at Columbia? Absolutely. You're giving it a good effort for sure. Right. Because you know that it would make everything much easier.
00:14:43
Speaker
Yeah, so number one, their goal differential is already absolutely screwed. Like, they're not fixing the goal differential situation. And number two, a point really doesn't do them that much, although I guess there's a scenario which two points could put them past Venezuela. If Venezuela will pick up zero, Bolivia should go and try and beat Colombia. Like, they're not going to go and try and play Colombia off the pitch, but they should go and try and get a result there.
00:15:04
Speaker
I don't think that's going to happen. But if it does, if Bolivia can beat Colombia, then suddenly Venezuela, Colombia, and Bolivia are duking it out on the last day for one spot in the World Cup and one spot the Intercontinental Playoff.
00:15:15
Speaker
Unlikely. Chaos scenario part two is that Peru go to Montevideo and get a result against Uruguay. who, again, still need to mathematically qualify, but are going to mathematically qualify regardless of what happens in that match.
00:15:27
Speaker
ah Argentina pound Venezuela, you know, a good little 4-5-0 type situation. And suddenly, if Peru can win against Paraguay and Venezuela lose to Colombia and Bolivia don't get it done against Brazil, then Peru would be in if they can swing that goal differential. Like something 2-0 in 2-0 with a big enough Venezuela loss in that first game.
00:15:47
Speaker
Could happen. Again, the the biggest problem with that scenario mid is it requires Peru to score goals, which they just haven't done in World Cup qualifying. But if you want chaos scenarios, those are your chaos scenarios.
00:15:58
Speaker
The drama is almost assuredly going to come on Tuesday, and it's going to come in the Venezuela match. It's going to come in the Bolivia match. it should be too done to see. And they kick off at the same time, is you'd expect, but was yeah will make for, if it gets dramatic, it'll be great.
00:16:13
Speaker
Yeah, it should be fun. It's sweaty intercontinental playoff scenes. It's what we're all about here on the World Cup After Dark Podcast. All right, let's shift across to Africa, where we have 52 games in the African Confederation starting Wednesday with an 8 a.m. m Central kickoff between Seychelles and Gabon. Are you here for some bad island football a bit?
00:16:33
Speaker
I'm awake. I mean, we got to see it. Gabon's not half bad. i don't know about Seychelles. Seychelles certainly earns the label. They are very, very bad. Very, very bad. um we're The good thing here in that is that we're far enough along in the process in CAF that a lot of those 52 games are going to be orange or red on the World Cup qualification spreadsheet.
00:16:53
Speaker
These teams are just not in the position to where four matches are going to be enough for them to make a run. So that allows us to really zero in on some games and groups where there's actual real legitimate drama. So let's do that.
00:17:04
Speaker
Let's start with the quick hitters. Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia were all favored in their groups coming into this. Again, the top team in the African groups qualified directly to the World Cup. And then four of the second place teams will play a four-team playoff in November for the one spot in the Intercontinental Playoff.
00:17:21
Speaker
So there could be a second place fallback, but you certainly don't want to be counting on it. Again, Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia all favored in their group at the start of qualification. They are comfortably ahead in their groups by various results.
00:17:32
Speaker
Keep an eye on those teams, but all four could be clinched or all but clinched before this window is over. I think Egypt and Morocco in particular, and potentially Tunisia, could all wrap up their tickets in this window pretty easily.
00:17:45
Speaker
Algeria, it might be a little bit complicated because of the points, but they have a massive goal differential advantage. They should be good. so we're going to leave those four groups to the side because we feel pretty confident we know what's going to happen there. Second place teams could be playing a factor, but again, the points really aren't working in those teams' favor.
00:18:00
Speaker
So again, let's keep an eye on it, but we don't need to spend a ton of time talking about it. Let's go and start with Group B, where we get Senegal-Sudan on Thursday, Thursday. Sudan are level on points with Senegal.
00:18:12
Speaker
One point back of DR Congo, who will play South Sudan on Friday. This, admit, looks to be a, it's probably a two-team race for the top spot in this group, but Sudan have done enough in this World Cup qualification cycle that they are worthy of a mention here. Again, they had that heartbreaking result against South Sudan in the last window.
00:18:30
Speaker
Any chance of response requires points here in this game against Senegal, and then probably a win away against Togo on Tuesday. Senegal just need to get the business done, which they weren't able to do the first time they played Sudan.
00:18:40
Speaker
This has got to be three points. Yeah, I think Sudan is better than we gave them credit for. They've made it, I think, earned the three team race. I know it it'll get down to two perhaps after this game, but if Sudan have any chance of doing anything, this is it.
00:18:57
Speaker
um I think this is all hands on deck game. I think this is going to be a really good challenge. And I think Senegal are not good enough to to have this game easily. And I think Sudan are good enough to make it very difficult on them.
00:19:09
Speaker
Sudan are very good without the ball. They're, you know, enough going the other way in transition ah to make Senegal pay if they commit numbers. And Senegal just really have not had the reliable goal scoring you'd expect from...
00:19:24
Speaker
a not ah previous knockout round team at the World Cup. So this is going to be a really good game. I'm actually, I'm going to back Sudan to have a ah real fighting chance.
00:19:34
Speaker
And if they win, then certainly things are on, especially for the rest of the way. And it's going to be really good. Yes, Senegal's favored. Yes, as you said, this is where Senegal does the business.
00:19:45
Speaker
Maybe they've been kind of, ah waiting to to get into gear here um for this window. But I'm, I think this is going to, I know it's green on the sheet. This is, this is certainly one of all the games, but ah specifically in Africa, one of the ones to watch, I think it's going to be really tough. And I think Sudan are going to put it all on the line because they have to.
00:20:06
Speaker
Right, six World Cup qualifiers for Sudan. They've yet to lose. Again, they deserve some respect here. They've drawn a bit more than they would have liked to. Again, that draw gets South Sudan. They had to beat South Sudan.
00:20:17
Speaker
That one really hurt, as you said. Yeah. But they were able to draw nil-nil against Senegal in the the home match in this group. So, yeah, let's see what happens here. Senegal haven't blown anybody really away other than a home win against South Sudan.
00:20:31
Speaker
You're backing Senegal to win. Once Senegal win and once DR Congo take care of South Sudan, Amit, that sets up a massive, massive match on Tuesday where DR Congo will be hosting Senegal in Kinshasa.
00:20:46
Speaker
This is probably the game that will determine who goes to the World Cup from this group. The points are such that there could be a chance for a second-place team from this group to head to that African playoff, so keep an eye out on that. But this DR Congo-Senegal game on Tuesday provided those two teams take care of business in their first match.
00:21:02
Speaker
At full strength, full sides, and this is what it gets. It's a must, must-watch game. It is. ah There's not not really any way around it, and I think...
00:21:13
Speaker
Again, just on names, right? Senegal has the better team. And again, they should should take care of Sudan. We'll see. we we don't We're not going to touch base with all the listeners in between. But imagining it's going to be one of the biggest games. Basically, a spot in line, as you said.
00:21:30
Speaker
Dear Congo are no slouches. They've got a good squad too. um There's a lot of star power on this field. This is a ah this is the World Cup level game. This is really great.
00:21:41
Speaker
ah We're going to learn a lot. I you know i think i think Senegal might be you know pretty packed in. I know they get the ball a lot, and I know DR Congo gives them is going to give them the ball and say, come break us down, because Senegal hasn't really shown that.
00:21:56
Speaker
But I think Senegal are just going to be... really ah solid the other way. I think it's going be really ugly, real like calf football that you see in an AFCON knockout type level where it's just about minimizing mistakes and keeping everyone behind the ball.
00:22:12
Speaker
Hot, i sweaty, noisy, right? like yeah It's going to be full of caption. Yeah, if Senegal comes in point within a point of Dior Congo, I think they're gonna play a pretty ah conservative game plan to just to try to escape with the point here overall.
00:22:29
Speaker
um It might not be fun for everyone. It'll be intense. I think Dior Congo... Again, as the the underdog heading into it, the pressure will be on them at home to get three points, but they don't really want to play with the ball.
00:22:41
Speaker
it It's going to be ugly and mucky. I think we'll see. It would be really fun to see Senegal have to go at DR Congo, maybe down an early goal. Then you get a really good open game, stars having to do things.
00:22:55
Speaker
But... um We'll see. I, you know, I, I, I think it it's more likely to get an ugly one, one or zero, zero um and calf bounce ball. So, so if, if you're Senegal, can you afford to go into this match playing for a point?
00:23:11
Speaker
Cause if you do that, You're basically saying we can outpoint DR Congo in October when DR Congo play Sudan and Togo and Senegal will play Mauritania and South Sudan.
00:23:23
Speaker
Like, are you going to put your entire World Cup qualification hopes on Sudan getting a point against DR Congo? and are Like, I think Senegal probably need to go try to win this. Like, I don't think it's advantageous to them at this point.
00:23:37
Speaker
I don't know. You're probably right. they They should go for the three points. And I certainly would, you know, of of the mindset, you you play games to win the games, right? Sure. But yeah they're not... Senegal are good. They're better than DR Congo up and down the field.
00:23:55
Speaker
But they're... They're certainly not good enough that you're super confident about them yeah and to play a high school. And I just, I'm not sure you want to play an open game on the road.
00:24:06
Speaker
um And again, specifically, dear Congo, this is Yohan Wissa's team, and he hasn't been playing for Brentford. He's really, you know, ah ah lethal transition striker specifically.
00:24:19
Speaker
And Senegal, you know, they've, nico Nicholas Jackson hasn't played, Mane's still a star, and he's not great. Honestly, one of their best players is Pop Saar, who's at Tottenham.
00:24:31
Speaker
Both of these teams are suited to play transition. So that's why i just don't think that I mean, i agree with you. Senegal should go win, but I'm not sure they can play. They can afford to play a game where they try to like really commit numbers at the field. They're trying to score with less.
00:24:46
Speaker
And, you know, maybe it's a we're we're going to play conservative for 60 minutes and then go, you know, and I do think Senegal have a deeper roster. They have more power ah bench power for sure. If you look at the squads, it's going to be fascinating. I mean,
00:25:00
Speaker
yeah Maybe you push for the first 15, right? we We often see that. But yeah it's going to be a madhouse in there, right? Like,
CAF Group Analysis and Dynamics
00:25:08
Speaker
Dior Congo, this would be ah scalp of all scalps. This would be a World Cup ah historic appearance, right?
00:25:16
Speaker
It's all on the line. i think so I just think Senegal are walking into a really, really tough match here. It's going to be awesome. Yeah, it's ah it's a high stakes window for Senegal. This has like Cedric, Baca, and Boo kind of greedy goal. Like just like, i don't know. It just has this about it. Like the ball, like you said, calf bounce ball. Like the ball is just bouncing around in the box and he's just like, all right, I'm slamming it in the net and he does it. I don't know.
00:25:40
Speaker
I'm very excited for this on Tuesday. Let's shift to Group C. We've talked a ton about this group. It's it's now or never, finally, last stand time for Nigeria. They'll play Rwanda on Saturday. Nigeria coming to this window six points back of South Africa with four matches to play.
00:25:55
Speaker
South Africa will play Lesotho on Friday. Lesotho have not been pushovers in this group. ah They've got six points. So keep an eye on that to see if South Africa can actually take care of business there.
00:26:06
Speaker
But it's actual now or never time for Nigeria. It's Victor Osheman or Bust. There's no Ian Acho in the squad. There's no Musa. They will go as far as Victor Osheman can fire them in. Rwanda are five points back of South Africa themselves.
00:26:17
Speaker
They're not out of it either. This is a must-win game for both teams, which probably sets up for exciting football.
00:26:24
Speaker
Yeah, i'm I'm really excited for the South Africa-Nigeria match because Nigeria have to do it. And I think Osheman will deliver. he's He's been scoring goals for Nigeria.
00:26:36
Speaker
and the Nigeria defense ah have a clean game. Right. are I don't know. um South Africa, again, have have have impressed just this whole window.
00:26:49
Speaker
the The players are are honestly just better than I gave them credit for heading in. And player to watch here is Burnley's Lyle Foster. ah He's solid. He's a Premier League striker.
00:27:01
Speaker
He's not a good Premier League striker. But ah I think South Africa are just kind of more organized than Nigeria. I don't know what Nigeria's problem is with defending, but they're not very good at it.
00:27:13
Speaker
im I'm not... I'm not so sure Nigeria could dig themselves out of this hole, right? It is a big hole. It's a big hole to be digging out of. And there's no margin for it, right? There's, there's literally no margin for error at this point. They have to beat Rwanda on Saturday, which I don't think is going to be an easy task, certainly.
00:27:30
Speaker
And then in, as you said, I mean, in the South Africa game on Tuesday, it's an away match for Nigeria. ah Nigeria have to have it. And even if they do have it, they're probably their best case scenario is they're putting pressure on South Africa, right? They're not even catching South Africa. They need to beat them to put pressure on them when we get to October.
00:27:45
Speaker
That's how desperate it's gotten for Nigeria at this point. I think the second place bailout is gone for them by the amount of points that they've already dropped. So they need to probably win their final four matches, I think, to have a chance to make the World Cup.
00:27:57
Speaker
That starts on Saturday. South Africa have put themselves in a very good position. Now, as it comes down so many times, let's see how they handle the pressure, right? This group has no pushovers. We've seen that all throughout this group.
00:28:09
Speaker
Everybody in this group has been able to get points off everybody else, right? Even Zimbabwe, who are sitting bottom of this group, have drawn four times. That means South Africa, they just need to keep chipping away at it, right? They don't need to be perfect.
00:28:21
Speaker
Keep chipping away at it, and they should be in the World Cup by the end of this, I think. I agree with you. i think they've done all the hard work and then they need to not just collapse. Now, again, they they could, but they're they're a solid team.
00:28:34
Speaker
And I, you know, I certainly think Nigeria will be telling themselves we can do it as they should. But I, threading ah it's an impossible needle to thread. Who wins four games in a row in, you know, two home games, two hard road trips, including to the team at the top of the group? Who does that in Africa?
00:28:54
Speaker
Yeah, after having one winning streak. Yeah, who wins four games in a row in Africa? That just doesn't happen unless you're in Morocco's cupcake group. like right No other group winner does that. not even Not Egypt, not Algeria, not Tunisia, the teams that are booked.
00:29:07
Speaker
it's They show no signs that they could do it. yeah i think they'll I think they'll give it a good go. I like Nigeria, right? The talent's there. If anyone could pull this off, right, to lock in for four games, but...
00:29:22
Speaker
Let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Make sure they beat Rwanda. And then, you know, they're they're probably telling themselves, look, if we win South Africa, the next window will take care of itself. Let's see. they've shown they've They've not shown that they've been serious about it, but they will be.
00:29:36
Speaker
This one also worth mentioning Benin here who are in third place. They're on eight points level with Rwanda and have two home matches in this window against Lesotho and Zimbabwe. It's asking a lot. I think of Benin to win two home games against tricky little teams like Lesotho and Zimbabwe are, but if they can do that, then we could be talking about them in October when they have away matches against Rwanda and Nigeria. They've already finished out their slate against South Africa. Group D emit Cape Verde and Cameroon on Tuesday. These are the top two teams in this group.
00:30:07
Speaker
I expect easy wins for both of them on the first match day. Cameroon will play Eswatini, who actually took points off Cameroon the first time they played, and Mauritius for Cape Verde if you want to see some more bad island football talk about Mauritius.
00:30:19
Speaker
Winnable games for both in October, the way that this group has shaken out. Cape Verde are a point up in the table, so a draw in this match could do it if they take care of business in October.
00:30:30
Speaker
There are some ah some veterans in these two teams. i mean This should be a fun game. I think Cameroon are favored, but again, playing away matches in CAF is no easy task, and they have to go into this away match and probably win it, right?
00:30:45
Speaker
I think they have to. you Again, to your even the point you you started with Senegal, you don't want to get into a points-off. And certainly, I think the rest of this group... Like, it's not... It's not impossible to get into a points-off, but it's certainly not the scenario you want to be going into October in, I think.
00:31:03
Speaker
Yeah. It's a great game. And I think Cameroon has the better squad. They've called in their heavy hitters. they've They've kind of got at all four levels, um including goalkeeper, right? Star power.
00:31:16
Speaker
So you back them here, but Cape Verde is a good project, right? They've been building up to this. They certainly have guys that can run. i think it's going a great game. You know, I i think this Cameroon squad is...
00:31:29
Speaker
in really good shape. I I'm, you know, I'm, I'm expecting them to do it. Like you said, they're probably favored, but, um, like no easy, nosy trips this is going to be, this is going be another good game, you know, specifically, right. They've Brian and Boimo is at Manchester United.
00:31:46
Speaker
Chupo Moting, the Red Bulls, Vincent Abubakar. We all know he's a, and the world he's an international specifically legend. Zambon Guisa is still good. Andre Inanna is still good.
00:31:58
Speaker
He could you know cost you a goal with a mistake. That's the nightmare, right? But you just look at the names there for Cameroon, and then you look at the names for Cape Verde, and it's it's less, right? it's Yeah, so let let me throw two data points at you here, right, which are are going to contrast with each other.
00:32:13
Speaker
When these two teams played earlier in qualifying, it was a 4-1 home win for Cameroon. They smoked Cape Verde. Abubakar scored twice, Tolo in the second half. Monteiro got one for Cape Verde. 4-1, easy win for Cameroon. right, that's the data point that's in Cameroon's favor.
00:32:26
Speaker
The data point that is against Cameroon is they have been awful away from home, World Cup qualifying. 1-1 draw with Libya, 1-1 draw with Angola, and that aforementioned 0-0 draw with Eswatini, which is really bad looks.
00:32:38
Speaker
Cape Verde have been solid enough at home. A couple of 1-0 wins, a draw against Angola. I don't know what you want to make of those data points, but I put them out there for you. I think to emphasize this, that, like you said, on talent, I think Cameroon are better.
00:32:51
Speaker
Away matches in Africa are tricky. Away matches on islands with wind and weird situations are even trickier. this is going to come down to one of those sweaty calf bounce ball games, I feel like. Unless Cameroon can really make their talent count, which they might be able to.
00:33:08
Speaker
They might be able to. I think this is going to be their most locked-in performance of the whole window, or the whole cycle, because they know they have to. um But there's certainly something about I think the entire program for Cameroon, there's a reason why the road trips are tough for them.
00:33:25
Speaker
They, and they, they've just not been consistent compared to the other top seeds. Again, some of them are in trouble. we We've named them already, but some of their better team on paper than Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, you know,
00:33:41
Speaker
And and it's it hasn't been that way because they're not as consistent match to match, trip to trip. let's this is This is your chance to show you're a World Cup team because you lose, you're in really bad shape, right? And they certainly will control the game. I just think midfield-wise they will.
00:33:56
Speaker
That doesn't mean they're going to score the chances, but they'll control the game. Yeah, second-place bailout still potentially there for Cameroon based on other results. We'll check back in on that on the recap show.
00:34:06
Speaker
Group F, Ivory Coast and Gabon are at the top of this group. Ivory Coast on 16, Gabon on 15. Burundi are worth a mention here as well. They will play Ivory Coast on Friday. I think we would back Ivory Coast to to get a home win in this match. But again, Burundi are on 10 points.
00:34:21
Speaker
They're worth mentioning here. The rest of this group has been pretty dreadful. Kenya, Gambia, and the aforementioned Seychelles. who admit are rocking a minus 28 goal differential through six matches with two scored and 30 conceded.
00:34:32
Speaker
So ah tune in for Seychelles Gabon on Wednesday at 8 a.m. Central time. That will most likely set up a Gabon Ivory Coast match on Tuesday. As I said, Gabon play the Seychelles on Wednesday. That's going to be a win. It's going to be a win by a lot of goals.
00:34:45
Speaker
And that could be significant because goal differential could play a big role in this group. And Ivory Coast beat the Seychelles 9-0 when they played them the first time. And they will play them a second time in October. These two teams have been just about perfect in this group. Gabon's only blemish is a 1-0 away loss to Ivory Coast the first time they played.
00:35:02
Speaker
Ivory Coast have yet to concede a goal, which in CAF is really, really impressive. And they their only blemish was a 0-0 away draw to Kenya, which again are things that happen. This is going to go a long way to deciding who's going to the World Cup.
00:35:14
Speaker
I also think it's important to mention that the points collected here have these teams probably in the most comfortable situation for a second place bailout. Again, that's not an easy place to put yourself in. You're in a four-team playoff and then you have an intercontinental playoff. That's not where you want to be, but it's something that you can take care of.
00:35:30
Speaker
um It's a big game. I think I'm backing Ivory Coast because that defensive record is is really impressive. Agree with you on on all accounts. And specifically, you know, I think Gabon have been good.
00:35:43
Speaker
They're solid. They're, like you said, they've barely slipped up. But you look at the attacking talent, and even just all the talent, right? Pierre-Emerick Aubayang is just over the hump a little bit. Again, great calf striker, good striker.
00:35:55
Speaker
The Ivory Coast defense is legit. um And we saw it through all of qualifying. We saw it at AFCON. You just can't really get them by... uh, speculative long balls or, or trying to break them down with the ball. Usual cap nonsense doesn't work here.
00:36:13
Speaker
but Basically. And Gabon also has Dennis Buonga, who's a really great MLS striker, right? There are good, there players on Gabon. This is going to be a good game, but I think Ivory coast are, are just well suited to shutting it down and, and kind of, you know, they certainly have the, uh,
00:36:33
Speaker
the point advantage that they could play for to play points ball the rest of the way. The point here is Ivory Coast are ahead in this group. And so they can come into this way, match him to say, look, if at the end of the day, the final whistle goes and we got a nil nil result here, we'll take our chances in out pointing Gabon. And it's not the other way around. Like we've seen in so many of these groups. I think that's a big advantage for Ivory Coast.
00:36:54
Speaker
Yeah. It'll be a good game. And Gabon's going to have pressure. They certainly can make it difficult, but, um, you know, the more they commit forward, Ivory Coast will will pay them the other way. And haven't seen an Ivory Coast squad, as you said before the podcast.
00:37:09
Speaker
um But we, I imagine the, the, the, the guys will be there. So um certainly one to watch again. I'm with you. I think I back Ivory Coast, but, um,
00:37:21
Speaker
tough game like all the the ones that we've kind of highlighted so far there's just a lot of good calf games this is another yeah what's made this window really good is all of those pot one teams are going away to the pot two team and that just it's just spicy it's just good it's it's good football it's it's i i don't know if it was good planning or that's just how it happened but it makes for really really good matches and i'm very very excited for it The last group to talk about here a bit is Group I. I actually almost put Ghana in the comfortable favorites in front group, but I mean, like, really, are we really trusting Ghana in that situation? I feel like we should at least break them down here a little bit. And we get to talk about Comoros, who have been some of our favorite stories so far.
00:37:59
Speaker
Let's look at the table in Group I. Ghana are three points ahead of Comoros. Ghana have 15. Comoros have 12. Madagascar in third on 10. And Mali, who are actually seeded team in this group, are in fourth on nine points.
00:38:11
Speaker
The first interesting game in this group comes on Thursday when Mali host Comoros. If there's a challenger to Ghana at the end of day in this group, it is going to come from a team winning this game. They need the three points.
00:38:23
Speaker
Mali are six points back. Comoros are three points back, like I just said. um I think that means that Mali probably need to win this, and then they're going to need to beat Ghana, and then they're going to have to try and outpoint Ghana in October.
00:38:34
Speaker
It's a tough path, Amit, but if there's a path back for Mali, it comes from a six-point window. um And again, i don't know that I fully trust Ghana here, but I also don't know that I fully trust anybody to outplay them by enough over four matches to actually beat them to the top spot.
00:38:52
Speaker
Again, agree agree completely. And it's probably fair that they haven't deserved in the same consideration as the other group. And certainly, I think, as you said, Cormos have been awesome. But some of that is some good bounces, some smoke and mirrors.
00:39:07
Speaker
The real thing we were hoping is that Molly would... would rise up and certainly Molly can, they could be Comoros then really put the pressure on big game. But even then they're still, they're still going to be what three behind Ghana aren't losing to Chad.
00:39:20
Speaker
Right. So get a six point window. They're going to be three behind and they're going to have to significantly out point and outscore Ghana in that yeah window. It's a tough path back. It really is.
00:39:30
Speaker
Yeah. So, so we'll see if my, first of all, Molly can, has to be Kamras. It's not going to be easy. Molly can play Ghana tough. They've, they've slipped up. They've got a better midfield. Perhaps the thing with Ghana and the reason why they deserve, I'm putting in air quotes to be a world cup team is the attacking talent just, just jumps off the page. yeah Right.
00:39:50
Speaker
ah You know, Inaki Williams, Antoine Semenyo, Mohamed Kudus, The defense is bad, i think, comparatively. So that's why, like... The 4-3 result against the Central African Republic doesn't quite convince you on on Ghana, and they've lost to Comoros away. It leaves you questioning, right?
00:40:07
Speaker
Yeah, and again, it's a bad ah confederation to be built like that. I don't know if there's any good confederations. Maybe Asia, where you could you could just, you know, run it up a little bit.
00:40:18
Speaker
um But, so I think Mali can... would certainly trouble them in that game and kind of, you know, really force Ghana to be difficult and make them sweat. But the thing Ghana can do is just got go, keep going, go to score goals. Right. And Molly certainly not um built incredibly defensively either. They're, you know, kind of midfield transition focus.
00:40:39
Speaker
I'll, I'll rate them, but you know, that game still, it won't be as good as all the other games, but let's see if Molly get there, there they'll um give them a good challenge. Yeah, and and as I said, it's worth mentioning Madagascar here as well. They have two home games this window. They'll play Central African Republic. They'll play Chad.
00:40:55
Speaker
Win both of those games. Ghana slip up against Mali. Perhaps there's a path. There's a head-to-head game between Madagascar and Ghana coming in October. So there's a path into this for Madagascar, but I don't know that you're really trusting them, but...
00:41:08
Speaker
Sure. Keep an eye on it. It's a really, really good cap window. I'm very excited for it. There are some big, big matches that are going to go a long, long way to determining who makes the World Cup from this confederation.
00:41:18
Speaker
And there's just the general cap craziness that we always get. So very excited to have cap back in our lives and excited for those games.
UEFA Groups Overview and Predictions
00:41:25
Speaker
All right, let's close it out with UEFA, where it's all the games, it's all the teams.
00:41:30
Speaker
UEFA is finally kicking off into full gear in World Cup qualification mode. And I think the best way to tackle this is to take a look at the two sets of considerations here, right? And we've talked about this UEFA from the start.
00:41:43
Speaker
We've got groups of five, and we've got groups of four. And I think the situations in both of those sets of of groups are completely different. so let's start with the groups of five, where we've gotten data points, where we've seen matches.
00:41:54
Speaker
Everybody's played between two and four games. It's not quite crunch time, but there's pressure on for some teams. And I think it actually is crunch time for the first team we're going to talk about. It's Italy. i mean I think they've been the story of UA for qualifying so far.
00:42:08
Speaker
They sit nine points back of Norway. Norway only play Moldova in this window. You would expect that to be an easy three points. Italy are playing Estonia at home and Israel away.
00:42:18
Speaker
I think first place in this group is already looking unlikely for Italy. And second place is probably going to be a scrap with Israel, which makes that a away game against Israel. Very, very important. There is no nations league bailout for Italy.
00:42:31
Speaker
It is time to find out what they have a bit. They've only had one window of world cup qualifying. And just like that, their world cup is very much in danger. What do they got? We're going find out. I think, uh,
00:42:43
Speaker
they certainly understand the ah pressure on them. And I think even for as frustrating as they've been, they're still a much better team than Israel. Again, I think in UEFA, the, like,
00:42:57
Speaker
match-to-match discrepancy versus teams is less because they're all kind of just around each other. And a lot of the players play um the same leagues, generally, the similar styles, generally. um There's less that random like high variability swings.
00:43:14
Speaker
But Italy is just a ah more solid team than Israel, who doesn't really have any star players. Italy's got good midfielders, great centerbacks, Striker problem for sure. You left out there, buddy. A big one.
00:43:28
Speaker
and score Like they, again, they have a handful of serial strikers, right? That's like Israel's strikers are okay. Like Ty Barabo is a MLS golden boot guy.
00:43:41
Speaker
At the end of the days, he is better as than like Skamaka and Rattagi and these guys that are floundering in front of net for Italy. No, but um I think Israel have shown, like, and do you have handy? Sorry to put you on Do have the Israel-Norway result?
00:43:57
Speaker
That was what? I do. It was a 4-2 win for Norway. was a weird match between Israel and Norway that night. Israel kind of hung around and scored some goals, but Norway are just very good. Yeah, and again, the Norway attack is is ruthless, and specifically with strikers. But Israel, or I think, are solid. But i just i'd be I would really be surprised, even at home, if or not, ah even if Israel could... hungry, right, neutral site. yeah yeah Yeah, even... even oh so I would just be surprised if Israel can hang on for 90 minutes against the Italy team.
00:44:31
Speaker
that knows it needs second place. And if that happens, we will come and talk and be, wow, Italy is really, really in the dumps. But I think the conversation we're going to have about Italy is, man, they've messed up. They're in a playoff or are the the next phase. And we're going to see what that looks like for them because they'll be um in trouble.
00:44:48
Speaker
Certainly the pressure will be on, but I think they'll be fine to get there. and And that's a very lukewarm vote of confidence for Italy. i don't know. they i say I just think they're better than Israel.
00:45:01
Speaker
The alarm bells are off. Yeah, so so so it's just to sum up your point here, it's Italy are really in deep, but they're not in so deep that I'm worried about them against Estonia and Israel, right? like that's Correct, correct. yeah I'll worry about how in deep they are when we get to March and I see who they have to beat to make the world win. Exactly.
00:45:20
Speaker
right. That's a fair point. Poland. Also one of these teams in the groups of five that are in a bit of, you just start laughing when I met. I got nothing to say about Poland. That's different than we've been saying about Poland for approximately like six years.
00:45:35
Speaker
Okay. Finland sit atop Group G on seven points. Netherlands have only played twice and are on six points. They're heavily favored to win this group. Poland are in third on six points. Robert Lewandowski won the Robert Lewandowski slash previous manager contest that that Poland had. So it's Robert Lewandowski who stuck around and not the previous manager.
00:45:55
Speaker
This is a massive window for Poland if such a thing exists. They're at home against Netherlands who, again, as I said, should win the group, but it's not so much better than Poland that they can't get a result there. And then they are away to Finland who are fighting for second place in this group.
00:46:10
Speaker
And it is, if I'm not mistaken, the only match Finland will play this international window. So big, big match. I think Poland, Finland is probably where our attention should be, but let's first see what Poland have against the Netherlands, right?
00:46:23
Speaker
Yeah. We want to kind of have a pulse check. It'll be a good test. And again, with Poland, we're, They're not going to get run off the field by the Netherlands. You know, you'd expect Netherlands to win. And I think Poland has a really good squad.
00:46:36
Speaker
There's a lot of good players at top clubs. Lewandowski is good, but they have help for him. Again, not like obvious other stars, but they have solid players. The Netherlands have stars at all the positions, basically.
00:46:48
Speaker
So I'd expect them to win. And then, as you said, let's see Finland. Finland have less good players than Poland. are, are Poland again, good enough to run them off the field?
00:46:59
Speaker
Also good enough to run anybody off the field. I don't know. Is there, ah is there a scenario where we can get a Poland Venezuela game? that There's not, but there's not cause they don't play. the hill right They play them.
00:47:16
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. um I don't know. I just, Finland doesn't have guys. yeah like and Like, just, just comparatively. Like, Poland, but they beat Poland the first time they played, right? Like, yeah, which which which shows that can happen. Certainly they can, you know, score, ah make it difficult. I don't know. i Let's see. Weird things happen and there's no one's far enough away. Like Poland could beat the Netherlands and we could be sitting here going, what? But,
00:47:45
Speaker
Yeah, not likely. like Group H, a bit we've got an Austria-Bosnia and Herzegovina match on Tuesday that will probably go a long way to cementing Austria's spot as the top team in this group. They also play Cyprus on Saturday.
00:47:59
Speaker
It's been a good start for Bosnia. I think their goal in this group is going to be to finish second. But hey, you've got a whole match against the the presumptive favorites. It's a chance for Bosnia to maybe do something I don't think either of us are buying that they will.
00:48:14
Speaker
the Bosnia squad is not as good as the Austria squad, but Austria again, can they, are they guaranteed to, to beat them? No.
00:48:26
Speaker
I'm trying to think if I give Bosnia a better chance against Austria than I do Poland against the Netherlands. And the answer is yes. Okay. And they have the points advantage, so they can kind of muck it up.
00:48:37
Speaker
Sure. But are they good? Like, are they better than Austria? No. And I think you right to say this will probably end up the way we think it'll end up. But let's see. I think this is a big Bosnia game, right? Like, they're up for it. Yeah, and it's a whole match. Like, yeah, it's a match to have an eye on. don't think it's something that's necessarily going to super surprise us, but it's a match certainly to keep an eye on.
00:49:00
Speaker
ah Montenegro, Czechia for the fight for second in group L. There's just too many letters in UA. There should just not be a group L. We should just not be that far down in the alphabet. Come up with a better qualifying situation here, folks. We can't be going all the way to L. They play head-to-head on Friday in Pogorica, which is the capital of Montenegro, for those who didn't know.
00:49:18
Speaker
Montenegro then play away to presumptive favorites Croatia on Monday. I don't think the team who finishes second in this group will be in a good spot in their European playoff. I mean, but they'll be in a European playoff and that counts for something.
00:49:32
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, I mean, again, I i watched Czechia, Croatia, and I just thought Czechia were very pedestrian. Yeah. And unfortunately, Montenegro are worse. Yeah.
00:49:44
Speaker
And it was a 2-0 win for Czechia when they played Montenegro the first time. Yeah. um I don't, like, Czechia has, like, solid players. Again, just solid Europe guys, good mix of domestic, some top leagues.
00:49:57
Speaker
Montenegro have less of the the top leagues and a comparatively worse domestic league. Again, like, It's just easier to sort out the stratification because of the way European football works.
00:50:08
Speaker
Yeah. But let's see. to It's really hard for European teams to jump pots, right? like Yeah, unless you're Italy and you mess around. Sure, right. like It doesn't happen the way that it does in other confederations. And so it's pretty stratified.
00:50:22
Speaker
And you're telling me you weren't blown away by Montenegro's 1-0 home win over the Faroe Islands earlier on in qualification? It didn't convince you? Yeah, again, like that's what you need to know. um But um I would expect Czechia to get into the playoff. And I think all the other teams of the playoff will want to see Czechia.
00:50:38
Speaker
Yeah, yeah. They're just think they are the 22nd best team in Europe, right? Like they make a euro and they don't really do anything. Then they're there. And when you cut it from 24 to 16, they're one of those kind of mucky 18s that kind of sit there in the middle.
00:50:53
Speaker
The final interesting group five team group battle comes to Wales and North Macedonia, who actually sit first and second in Group J. North Macedonia on eight points, Wales on seven points. This one is going to be on ice this window.
00:51:05
Speaker
Only one game this window for each team. They should be wins. Let's keep an eye on Belgium, who had a fun little debut to action here in Group J. They're on four points. They're the presumptive favorites here.
00:51:16
Speaker
Games for Belgium in this window will be a away match against Liechtenstein on Thursday and a home match against Kazakhstan on Sunday.
00:51:28
Speaker
Wales are making the trip to Kazakhstan on Thursday, which is just kinky because it is a trip to Kazakhstan, which always is, again, you're backing Wales, you're backing Belgium. But look, it's a group with Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein who can't fall in love, right?
00:51:42
Speaker
Yeah, I got nothing to add to that, truthfully. I mean, there's certainly a scenario where Wales has some trouble on the trip. It just could be a tough game. um But yeah, perhaps the intrigue is not in this window for this group specifically.
00:51:56
Speaker
And North Macedonia will play Liechtenstein on Sunday, which again is probably not where the intrigue is here. But Belgium are worth keeping half an eye on, right? Like... You never know what you're getting with Belgium.
00:52:08
Speaker
Maybe things get weird in venues against Liechtenstein or maybe Kazakhstan. I mean, probably not, but you never know. Worth keeping half an eye on. all right. So those are the groups of five teams where we have a lot of data points. We've already seen what we're looking at.
00:52:22
Speaker
Let's shift it to the groups of four where no one has played anything yet. It is a six match sprint in these groups. Three windows, right? September, October, November, and everything's done.
00:52:32
Speaker
There are six groups of four. I think, am meant the again, we talked about it earlier here in the UEFA section. The pots are so stratified, and there so many groups that it's just it's really hard for pot two teams to jump up and top pot one teams. It's hard for pot three teams to top pot two teams.
00:52:49
Speaker
It's hard for pot three teams. yeah right like These groups are so stratified that I think it's more likely than not that these groups kind of come down to what we would expect, particularly Groups A, D, E, and F, where Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal, I think are pretty heavily favored to top those groups.
00:53:06
Speaker
I don't think we need to spend a ton of time there. We can watch out for it. The battle for second place could get interesting. It's significant, obviously, with the playoff spots, but it's hard to see any of those four teams having too much trouble.
00:53:20
Speaker
Agreed. I think all those teams are just not really going to get challenged. You look for Germany. Okay. Slovakia, not really. France, Ukraine, Ireland, no.
00:53:32
Speaker
Iceland, yeah, no. Yeah, Iceland, no. Portugal. No. Spain, no. Now, I will say, and as you, again, this is more likely than not.
00:53:45
Speaker
But some of those are are good battles for for second, as you as you just highlighted. um i think like Turkey, Georgia, and Groupie is interesting for second place, right? Yeah. Hungary and Ireland yeah is an interesting one.
00:53:58
Speaker
ah Ukraine and Iceland is an interesting one. like A few of those are are pretty good. Yeah, Spain play two away games this window. I don't think it's really going to matter against Bulgaria and Turkey. And even if it did matter, there's enough home matches on the back end to make up for it.
00:54:15
Speaker
But something to keep an eye on. France play Ukraine on Friday. And Poland, like I think that's kind of the trickiest match there is for France, probably, in this group. I don't know. I guess maybe going to Iceland is is probably a bit trickier. But like again...
00:54:29
Speaker
Look, this is UEFA. Weird things generally don't happen in this confederation. However, there are two four-team groups that I think are worth our consideration. So let's start in group B. It's Switzerland, Sweden, Slovenia, and Kosovo.
00:54:42
Speaker
I don't think there's a dominant team in this group. There's the political intrigue of of Switzerland and Kosovo and and everything that comes with that. The two favorites, Switzerland and Sweden, play Slovenia and Kosovo this window.
00:54:54
Speaker
So I would imagine both of those teams probably hold serve. And I think that probably sets up a nice little battle for October and November between Switzerland and Sweden. ah Agreed. I think Switzerland are the favorites. Sweden are solid. Slovenia are solid.
00:55:09
Speaker
Certainly close to each other. And one of them could push Switzerland and make those games in October good. ah Agreed. And... um i'd I'd back Switzerland, but I think race for second is good, and maybe Switzerland will slip up.
00:55:22
Speaker
Maybe. And then the other group is Group C, where Denmark are the seeded team. They're joined by Greece, Scotland, and Belarus. I think Denmark are probably significantly favored here.
00:55:33
Speaker
Greece and Scotland probably aren't any good, but it is worth mentioning because Denmark hosts Scotland and visit Greece this window. So, I mean, if things do get interesting in Group C, I think it'll probably get interesting right from the start.
Potential Surprises in UEFA Four-Team Groups
00:55:47
Speaker
Yeah, i I'm going to give Greece and Scotland just a little more credit. I'm not saying they're good. I'm not saying they're good, but they're solid teams. There's some decent squad talent there.
00:55:58
Speaker
And Denmark are not certainly overwhelming ah in terms of their squad talent. They kind of have the reputation based on some major tournament performances. I think this is a group that if any group was going to have a non-pot one team win,
00:56:11
Speaker
It could be Greece or Scotland. We've seen Scotland do well. Haven't seen Greece do well in a while, but again, the squad's not half bad. um And like you said, they're there <unk>ases are Denmark's got to play those two teams this window. So if there's any intrigue in UEFA outside of maybe some of those five-team groups we mentioned in the four-team groups for a top spot, it could be right here.
00:56:34
Speaker
Did we kind of breeze over Sweden too quickly? There's some attacking talent in that team, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Those dudes score.
00:56:46
Speaker
Let's see here. Isak, a long guy, Joyker, those guys can put the ball in the back of the it I don't know. Oh, oh yeah, that's pretty good. um yeah Man, I've been sleeping on Sweden. I obviously knew Isak, but okay.
00:57:00
Speaker
Switzerland is going to have a little challenge.
00:57:05
Speaker
I think, it like again, i don't it's not going to happen this window because those teams don't play, but let's see what happens when they do cross paths in October. As we wrap up the UEFA section, Amit, do you want the England update?
00:57:17
Speaker
i I've already heard it listening to all the Premier League games, who they're playing this window, and definitively less intrigue, but go ahead. Did you enjoy Andorra 0 England 1 in the last window?
00:57:32
Speaker
Because if you did, England could host Indora this window. It could happen again. They also go to Serbia, which is kind of interesting. But Serbia have already slipped up a bunch, and and I don't think they can really have what it takes to challenge England.
00:57:45
Speaker
Albania actually sits second in that group. We probably should have mentioned Group K. It's it's crazy. Albania, Serbia, Latvia, the fight for second. And again, talking Eastern European teams here, so you never quite know what's going to happen.
00:57:55
Speaker
So keep an eye on on Group K outside of England. You do not have to watch England. Although England at Serbia is an actual good game that you should watch. probably watch. All right. We've gone on for an hour. I hope that we have wet your appetite properly for world cup qualifying. I know that a minute and I are locked in.
00:58:11
Speaker
ah say shells got on eighty stay like wood There's a lot of green games on the sheet. This window. There are a lot of green gates that good games. It is. It is time to to order a docena of empanadas and just hang out at home for a couple of days and just fire up all the screens and just let the international football wash over you. That's my plan starting on Thursday.
00:58:31
Speaker
If you like what we do here at the World Cup After Dark podcast, and again, if you've made it an hour into this podcast, there is no doubt that you do. You can support us at patreon.com slash WCAD.
00:58:42
Speaker
For $3 a month, you get access to Patreon-exclusive shows like our show that we just put out with Getting Cockcaps' John Arnold looking at the status of the three host countries ahead of next summer's World Cup.
00:58:54
Speaker
You also get access to the World Cup qualification master spreadsheet that Amit just mentioned, which lists every single World Cup qualification match, where to watch it in both the U.S. and Argentina. When it happens, it also tells you if you should be watching it or if you only have time for a couple, which ones you should really, really watch.
00:59:10
Speaker
It is a very handy tool. It's got all the tables. It's got everything you need to know that will help you get through the 122 matches that are set to be played between Wednesday and Tuesday. Again,
Wrap-Up and Call to Action
00:59:20
Speaker
patreon.com slash WCAD for that.
00:59:23
Speaker
Amit and I will be back on the back end of this window to break down everything that we saw. We are very, very excited for it, and we hope that you are too. Talk soon.