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WCAD 3-29: March Madness, but World Cup Qualifying
73 Plays3 months ago
Austin and Amit preview a jam-packed March international window that's set to feature at least one and potentially multiple teams punching their World Cup tickets!
First the guys preview the stretch run in Asia as Japan look to secure their spot, and Australia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar fight to make their talent count. Then they look at an in-between window in Africa with plenty of exciting matchups.
Finally, the guys run through CONMEBOL, Oceana and the debut of UEFA World Cup qualification.
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Transcript
Return of the World Cup After Dark Podcast
00:00:01
Speaker
It has been a long time, but international football is back. And that means the World Cup After Dark podcast is back. I'm Austin Miller.
00:00:12
Speaker
He is a bit Malik. Not only are we back, but we are back with a bang. We packed it all in for this window. It's time to start thinking about the World Cup. we're We are very back.
World Cup Qualification Happenings and Excitement
00:00:25
Speaker
You know how much we're thinking about the World Cup? Amit, we're giving out World Cup tickets in this March window. We are absolutely going to send one team to the World Cup, and we are potentially going to send eight more teams, probably not that many, but at least a couple more certainly are in contention. In this March window, we have five of the six confederations in action.
00:00:43
Speaker
CONCACAF, the only confederation that will not be playing. They're playing their own little Nations League thing. It's actually interesting, Amit. At no point in this World Cup qualification cycle will we have a window where all six confederations have matches because Oceania will wrap up here in March and then the other nations come in. So little good little factoid there.
00:01:00
Speaker
But as we said, the main storyline here is that we have World Cup tickets for on
Oceania's Path to World Cup Qualification
00:01:05
Speaker
the line. As I said, at least one in potentially eight teams could be punching their World Cup ticket here this March. In actuality, it's probably around four or five that have legitimate chances.
00:01:14
Speaker
But as mentioned, the one guaranteed ticket we will send is in Oceania as it will wrap up. One of New Zealand, Fiji, New Caledonia, or Tahiti will secure their spot. More on that later in the show.
00:01:25
Speaker
Other teams that could punch a ticket In Asia, Japan are in very good shape. they will be They are one win away from the World Cup. It could be as soon as Thursday that they become the fourth team to earn their place in the World Cup alongside hosts, U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
00:01:39
Speaker
and then on Tuesday, Iran and South Korea could very well have a chance to clinch. And Uzbekistan and Iraq have mathematical possibilities to clinch the World Cup this window.
Asia's World Cup Qualification Drama
00:01:47
Speaker
but most likely it will wait until June and here in carnival Argentina have tough fixtures, but a chance to earn a spot in the world cup Uruguay are less likely, but again, they are mathematically in the running to clinch a world cup spot. If they were to win twice in Bolivia and Venezuela, don't win at all.
00:02:01
Speaker
We also have very meaningful matches in Africa. and as low key of a start in Europe as you could possibly imagine. i mean, it is a fire hose of international football that's coming our way over the next few days.
00:02:13
Speaker
Is there one thing in particular that you are more excited about than anything else? And please don't tell me England's double home debut. No, I think in Asia is where we're getting to some of the drama ah in terms of the best teams in
Africa's Qualification Structure and Surprises
00:02:29
Speaker
their groups kind of figuring out, ah cementing their spots or maybe two or three pressure points, getting clarity.
00:02:36
Speaker
And then also for me, I think... um even though it's early in Africa and it's going to take a while to get to the really the business end of that part of qualifying, um just the way it's structured, there's some pressure points there already as well.
00:02:49
Speaker
um So I think for me, that's what I'm looking at and we're certainly going to get into it. And it's just, it's a lot to take in. So I think focusing in on some of the the higher leverage stakes will help ah kind of just guide through what to watch for.
00:03:04
Speaker
um It's, it's It's a lot, but we've been ah we've been going with a really good time of the year for soccer. And i know everyone has been enjoying their Champions League, ah their MLS, all of that.
00:03:20
Speaker
These guys are still in really good ah playing form right now in the thick of their season. So I think this is an underrated window, specifically in Africa, for the teams that are really well prepared to to make a jump because it does feel like it's such of a vacuum outside of the rest of qualifying.
00:03:37
Speaker
These games will end up matter. I'm just keying in on that one specifically. These are players in good form, kind of who can handle that better. I think that's a great point that you make about Africa, Amit, because this feels like it's a very weird spot and that it's in the middle of this calendar, all the drama is yet to come.
00:03:54
Speaker
But I think we're really going to be able to hone in on the storylines because there's a lot of matches coming our way. And I think we're going to be able to, for lack of a better term, kind of put aside 20 to 25 nations there and really focus in on the other 15 or 20 that really have a shot at making the World Cup.
00:04:09
Speaker
And then the point about Asia is fantastic because, look, there's only four matches left in this round. There's World Cup tickets on the line. There's trips to the next round on the line. So that's that's big. it's It's a massive window.
00:04:21
Speaker
And it if you'll permit me a bit, it is as good a time as ever to become a subscriber to the World Cup After Dark podcast because you are not going to get through the next few days without the master qualification spreadsheet. You are going to be very, very lost, and you're going to end up watching England-Albania on Friday, which is not what you want to do on Friday afternoon.
00:04:39
Speaker
That's right. And ah pretty good streaming coverage right now. yeah So it's ah it's a good time. We know March Madness for our folks in the States that like college basketball is on.
00:04:50
Speaker
But listen, you got the second screen. This is going to be some good stuff. The drama in some of these will be just as good. We promise in some of these confederations.
Fans' Strategies to Consume the Qualification Matches
00:04:59
Speaker
it's a It's a fun time.
00:05:00
Speaker
And I'd love to promise that there's going to be less video reviews than the out-of-bounds reviews at the end of a March Madness game. But I can't promise with the VAR. I can't do that. cannot do that. It's probably going to the same amount of reviews. second screen is is putting it lightly i mean i i have borrowed my fiance's extra computer just to to up the screen count here here at the house for the next couple days and taking vacation off of work i suggest you do the same but that's where we are all right so let's get into previewing this massive massive march window we're going to try to get to as much of this as we can we're going to try to do it as as best as we can we're also going to try to catch you up if you're just kind of getting into the world cup qualification conversation now
00:05:34
Speaker
So let's start in Asia, where, as you said, Amit, we are getting to crunch time. There's just four matches left in the third round. Six tickets at stake in this round. There's six spots in the next round in which there will be two more spots at the World Cup on the line and also a spot in the Intercontinental Playoff.
00:05:49
Speaker
We're going to go group by group, and let's start in Group A with the state of the race. Iran lead the way in Group A. They've got potentially tricky fixtures here with the UAE and Uzbekistan, but both are at home.
00:06:00
Speaker
If they win one of those two, I think they're going to head in the last window in very good shape. If they win two, they are probably going to just punch their World Cup ticket right now in this window. Uzbekistan sit three points back in second place and have a must-win match at home against Kyrgyzstan to start the window.
00:06:16
Speaker
And then an away trip to Iran, they will be hoping to get another point off a round. They've played three times so far in this World Cup qualification cycle, and all three matches have ended in a draw. I think if Uzbekistan can beat Kyrgyzstan, they'll control their fate in June. If they can go get something off of Iran, they'll be in a really, really good spot.
00:06:32
Speaker
The UAE, they play Iran on Thursday. They're going to get something from that match. And then they play North Korea in Saudi Arabia in an away match on Tuesday. They've got Uzbekistan at home in June. So UAE will be hoping to stay within three points of Uzbekistan.
00:06:45
Speaker
And Qatar, who have been the story
Asian Group Standings and Key Matches
00:06:47
Speaker
in this group, have North Korea at home and Kyrgyzstan away. They absolutely have to win both of those matches and then have some magic happen in June or else they're going to be heading to the playoff. I'm at North Korea and Kyrgyzstan are an Al Davis mode. They just got to win, baby. Just win as many times as you can and maybe it'll break, right?
00:07:02
Speaker
I think the biggest question in this group is what are we going to get from Uzbekistan? I think they are the pressure point here. That match against Kyrgyzstan at home at Thursday is one of those tricky, slimy, grimy World Cup qualifiers against a team that you are definitively better than, but can still cause you problems.
00:07:20
Speaker
Three points there would be absolutely massive for the Uzbeks. I think that's the best place to start. This is one of the games, we're going to say that a lot, but of the ones to to hone in on, that is going to have definitive implications on the field in 2026.
00:07:37
Speaker
Uzbekistan is a team that's trying to make their first appearance. They win this. They are in. Just got to get it over the line in June. They're right on the doorstep. They lose this, and the door is open for a traditionally more talented Qatar team.
00:07:50
Speaker
And then also, you know, UAE's got points here, too, we're talking about. So they they need this one. It's about as must-win as it gets. Again, like I think you framed it well. Team you're better than. You should take care of. but you watch these Asian games, you watch Kyrgyzstan play, or Uzbekistan, both of them play, it's not going to be an easy game but for Uzbekistan.
00:08:10
Speaker
They're going to have to grime and muck it up like you said. they should They should do it. um And then also, I think, as much as Qatar, it seems like we've penciled them into the playoff, and I do yeah feel that way.
00:08:23
Speaker
They're one window away from kind of putting this thing back into it from absolute disaster, but also putting this right back into complete chaos. Sure. Like Uzbekistan is not out of it. If Qatar, it's unlikely. You think six points in this window? They certainly can.
00:08:38
Speaker
we We know if one thing we know, they're they're very unpredictable. And we almost like in the sense that we expect them to be normal and then they play poorly. But certainly they could have.
00:08:48
Speaker
taken them until this long to get their things together and finally figure it out. So I'm keeping an eye on them.
African Qualification Changes and Key Fixtures
00:08:55
Speaker
I'm not fully writing them out of those top two. It does feel that way, but just look, we can be talking about two bounces and this thing could be right back into a complete mess.
00:09:05
Speaker
Yeah, so the interesting point with Uzbekistan is this Kyrgyzstan match, what makes it so big is it's, for lack of a better term, it's the last guaranteed points that they have, right? right The last three matches for Uzbekistan are away against Iran. Again, they've taken points off of Iran, but that's a tricky fixture.
00:09:20
Speaker
Away against the UAE in June, that is most likely going to be a head-to-head clash for second place. And then at home against Qatar on the last match day. And if, as you said, Qatar have gotten some luck and gotten themselves back into this conversation, that would then mean that that could be a direct matchup for second place.
00:09:37
Speaker
So you have to bag the three points here because you simply don't know what's coming up. And Qatar are a really interesting test case in that, look, On paper, these are two of the easiest matches in the group for Qatar. At home against North Korea, away against Kurdistan.
00:09:51
Speaker
Anything less than six points and we can kiss a direct spot at the World Cup in this round. Goodbye. If they continue to stumble even more so, they could even head into that absolute disaster territory. But this is a big window for Qatar to just kind of put it together and show us how much more talented you are in Asia than these other teams.
00:10:09
Speaker
Agreed 100%. And I think it's a, we're going to have a very good idea of their, what they think of their chances and what they just are feeling as a federation, as a team.
00:10:22
Speaker
um Even if they play well, look invested and don't necessarily get six, that would make me feel a lot better because I think what marks them so much in this window has been their kind of like apathy towards trying when they should.
00:10:37
Speaker
Also the 17 goals allowed, right? like Yeah. yeah and that's that like That's a defense thing. like yeah There's not a lot of excuses to be bad at defense in this region. like The attacks you're playing are not strong.
00:10:50
Speaker
um Even Iran and Uzbekistan, the two good teams in their group, like yeah Iran sliced them up and that was very disconcerting. yeah um So yeah, we're going vibe check Qatar and then I think Uzbekistan, they should get it done. Maybe 1-0, maybe it's ugly, but probably should be more comfortable with that. You'd think. You'd think.
00:11:11
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's certainly a big game to watch on Thursday, that Uzbekistan-Kurjicistan match, and then the Uzbekistan-Iran match on on Tuesday will certainly be interesting as well. Let's shift to Group B here. South Korea can punch their ticket with two wins against Oman and Jordan at home. ah You'd favor them to do that here in this window.
00:11:25
Speaker
Even if they don't, they're going to head to June most likely in a pretty good position. Iraq sit in second place in this group. They're in good shape. They've got favorable matchups here. Kuwait at home and a
South American and UEFA Qualification Dynamics
00:11:34
Speaker
match against Palestine away that is going to be played in Saudi Arabia.
00:11:38
Speaker
This one is about maintaining their advantage that they've built up on Jordan. The June window is much trickier. Get the points now, right? Jordan are looking good to at least earn a spot in the next round. They're comfortable in third place. They are behind in the chase for the top two spots and the tickets, the world cup in this round, they've got a must win at home against Palestine and then a tough trip to South Korea to close out this window. They have to meet Palestine and Oman Kuwait and Palestine as they have been since this draw has been made. They are fighting for the honor to be the worst team in the fourth round draw.
00:12:04
Speaker
We don't back them to make the World Cup. We won't back them to make the World Cup in the next round, but they can keep their dreams alive. So, emit Iraq, much like Uzbekistan, they're in good shape, but they are the pressure point in this group. They've got an even easier schedule than Uzbekistan has.
00:12:18
Speaker
Can they handle the pressure? Can they bank the six points and set themselves up with room for air heading into June? I would bet on them to do it. This feels like the most straightforward group we've got ah here in Asia.
00:12:32
Speaker
um Korea seemed fine. And I think you framed it well. They're similar boat to Uzbekistan. Iraq is Iraq, and they have easier games. yeah um It might not be, you know, fully taken care of ah by the end of this.
00:12:45
Speaker
ah Definitely won't. But I'm with you that the matchups now, they should handle it. I mean, four points minimum, six points, you, If you get six, you're feeling really, really good, and this thing is probably done and dusted.
00:12:58
Speaker
um they've been They've been solid. um i liked I like this Rock team a lot, and I think they should get it done. yeah Yeah, we've seen Ayman Hussain was really good at the Asian Cup for Iraq, has continued his his good goal scoring form into this run with them.
00:13:14
Speaker
Yes, I agree with you that this should be straightforward for them. I also think the fact that Jordan have to play South Korea in a match that could send South Korea to the World Cup is just a really unfortunate break for Jordan.
00:13:25
Speaker
ah And so I think Iraq should be in in good enough shape to finish in second. ah Oman have the inside track to that fourth place spot. They're on six points. They've won twice. Kuwait and Palestine have yet to win.
00:13:37
Speaker
Let's see what happens there. Again, that's going to be the team that you look at in this this fourth round draw that all the big names, if you will, that that have fallen in into that fourth round, they're going to want Oman in their group when that fourth round draw is made.
00:13:49
Speaker
And to close out the Asian discussion of it, let's head to group C where the C is for chaos. Japan, as we said in the open, they need to win just once in their last four games to punch a ticket. They do it against Bahrain on Thursday. I think it'll actually be pretty interesting to see what happens in Japan's last three games where they've already clinched their spot in the World Cup.
00:14:06
Speaker
That could really affect what happens in the rest of this group. Japan will be going to the World Cup, and I think it's more likely than not they'll just do it on Thursday and and get it done. Then everything else in this group is completely up for grabs. And we have to ask how we're going to handicap this Australia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Bahrain, China race for second through fourth.
00:14:25
Speaker
Australia currently sit in second place in this group on seven points with a plus one goal differential. Indonesia are in third on six points with a minus three goal differential. Saudi Arabia are in fourth on six points with a minus three goal differential.
00:14:39
Speaker
Bahrain are in fifth place with six points and a minus five goal differential. And China are in last place, sixth place with six points and a minus 10 goal differential. Every game in this group of it is must watch. Look, you and I generally feel that talent wins out in World Cup qualifying, right?
00:14:58
Speaker
That would most likely mean that Australia and Saudi Arabia should be fighting for second, but they're running out of time to make that talent count because there's only four matches left.
00:15:08
Speaker
Yeah, they've dug themselves a hole and they've both kind of... tried their tricks to dig themselves out of the hole, hasn't really worked. um I think they're both, in a sense, lucky that this it's it's forgiving in a sense, but also they're running out of time, you said.
00:15:25
Speaker
i don't know. I don't really trust either of these teams is my ultimate thing. We saw them kind of both have chances last window to get a stranglehold on this, and they couldn't really do it. um You know, having having gone into this ah cycle, this this qualifying window, I would have maybe said Saudi Arabia is actually playing a little bit better than Australia right now.
00:15:46
Speaker
um I think now I feel that Australia is a little more solid because of their defensive solidity, which is always kind of their hallmark. yeah But they don't score. then Saudi Arabia, like...
00:15:58
Speaker
They're not very good at defense. ah Their style is much more like suited to the the Asian game, but they're not very good at it either. ah So it's ah it's a tricky one.
00:16:12
Speaker
ah You give Australia that point, the point they have over them is the the tiebreaker here and say they're likely to get it. I think that's what it kind of comes down to, right? don't know. Yeah, and and that point is the point they took off Japan, and they're only team to have done that so far. I think that's significant.
00:16:27
Speaker
Saudi Arabia turning to have Bernard. It's fantastic to me. I like how that how that has all played out. Obviously, we saw him in November. Australia as well have have made the marionage of your changes. I don't think we could discount Indonesia, Bahrain, and China having a role to play here. They will certainly have ah a fight for fourth, if nothing else.
00:16:44
Speaker
ah I'll show you how the easier fixtures this window. They don't have to play Japan. They don't have to play Saudi Arabia. That means that if they can get six points, they're going to be favored to to take second place here. Saudi Arabia, they play China on Thursday. That's a match that you really feel like they have to get the three points from.
00:16:58
Speaker
And then maybe that trip to Japan on Tuesday, Japan's less motivated. They've already clinched a spot in the World Cup. i don't know. Maybe there's something to be had there. China, meanwhile, have the hardest fixtures here. They play Saudi Arabia away in Australia at home.
00:17:09
Speaker
But that also means that they have the biggest opportunity because they can take points off the the the best teams in this race. But also, I'm not talking myself into China. And then Indonesia and Bahrain play each other on Tuesday in Jakarta. And that is probably going to be a must win for both, which makes it a must watch. And if somebody can get three points there and bag a point with it with a hard-earned draw somewhere else, you're you're right in the conversation going to the last window.
00:17:32
Speaker
This group is chaotic and it's dramatic and every game is much watched because you can't trust Australia and Saudi Arabia really, I don't think, to to take care of business in the way that they should. And that's put an Indonesia team that is certainly punching above its weight, a Bahrain team that has scrapped out some good results, and a China team that we've left for dead on like three different occasions this World Cup cycle right in this race.
00:17:55
Speaker
Agree completely. i think every game is must-watch. I'm definitely focused on Thursday first. Can Australia and Saudi Arabia pick up those three points? They have to. um It's kind of...
00:18:07
Speaker
you know Indonesia has Bahrain on the second match day, and that's certainly a good opportunity. But if they if they can kind of get a point, even against Australia, that keeps a legitimate dream alive of second. yeah um Otherwise, i you know they're they're still going to be kind of in this thing, but it's going to be a lot harder.
00:18:25
Speaker
Indonesia has also just been super fun. like All their games have been really great. They are punching above their weight. It's a big test to to go to Australia, but maybe you can frustrate them. Yeah, I think that is the the the first game where everything starts. It's the earliest one, but going to be fun to to see where it goes from there. And then if Australia wins, or depending, how much how how can Saudi Arabia respond to that pressure?
00:18:48
Speaker
They should beat China. They should. But again, nothing comes easy. um And then we'll see we'll see kind of how things fall ah unfold from there. um Pressure, certainly. i think the pressure's on Australia.
00:18:59
Speaker
They can get six. They should get six, but it won't be easy. Yeah. And like you said, if they do, then they're going to be – I think that distance just with the time left will be very, very beneficial for them.
00:19:11
Speaker
I don't know, though, like you said, with the trust factor. ah And somehow, i you know, it's getting to be too many must-watch games. But Indonesia is still in that window of need to see because that game is going to be silly in a good way.
00:19:26
Speaker
yeah It is. It is. and And look, Saudi Arabia have kind of stunk this round, right? They've won one of their six matches. They've picked up only two points at home. They drew with Indonesia at home. They drew with Bahrain at home. Their only win was a 90th minute winner away against China earlier in this round.
00:19:42
Speaker
There's a lot of pressure on Saudi Arabia to put it together and get the three points there because I wouldn't like your odds going against Japan, even if Japan's already qualified. Right. I said the the pressures on Australia more in terms of as the front runner, the actual like pressure, like, oh, we're in real trouble of getting into the playoff and not being one of the better teams in the playoff is on Saudi Arabia.
00:20:04
Speaker
And it's interesting because the way the time zones work, that Australia match, as you said, happens first. And so they set the tone in that if Australia beats Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, all of a sudden they're four points back of Australia and they really have to keep pace with the Australians. If Australia struggle, then it's a huge opportunity for Saudi Arabia.
00:20:21
Speaker
There's a lot there. yeah This is where Herb Renard makes his big bucks. This is going to tell us, like, okay, November was was a tight turnaround. He's had five months to sit there and think about how to win this game against China and then see what happens when he goes to Japan and hope for that they're, you know, a little rotated.
00:20:40
Speaker
If he doesn't get three against China, you might as well be like, well, why'd they bring this guy in? i'm I'll give Herb Renard his credit. I expect them to get three against China. I really do.
00:20:53
Speaker
A point here that we should make with these Asian teams, and there's point that as we transition to talk about Africa as well, is this is also Ramadan for the the majority Muslim countries, which plays a big role here in Asia and will play a big role in Africa. You'll see it in some odd kickoff times in Africa where nations have chosen to play their matches later in the day as to start them after sundown to avoid the traditional fasting. So something just to to file away as as we look at the housekeeping. All right, so that's Asia taken care of. Let's shift over to Africa, where it's been a while.
00:21:22
Speaker
These teams have been off qualifying for AFCON since we've last saw them. ah They will also take the June window off. So this is just kind of this weird outlier window in the middle before the September-October push where there's only four match days left.
00:21:36
Speaker
There are a ton of storylines in Africa. There's a lot going on. We're going to do our best to to take a look at all. Let's start with some housekeeping. We got some bad looks in Group E, unfortunately. imit ah This group started off with Eritrea.
00:21:48
Speaker
pulling out of the competition before they even played a match. And now Group E is down another team because Congo have been suspended for government interference in the Federation. That leaves Group E with just four teams.
00:21:58
Speaker
We are fairly confident that Morocco will run away with that group. Our opinion on that has never changed. But where this is significant is that second place ranking was going to be a big part of the qualification story here in Africa, because the teams that win their groups will go direct to the world cup. And then a rankings table will be used to select the four best second place teams to send them to a playoff for a spot in the playoff.
00:22:22
Speaker
And we, at this point have no idea what that's going to look like because there are now eight groups of six and one group of four. At some point we're going to have to figure out what we're doing with that second place ranking table. Unfortunately, I feel like the most likely scenario is that the second place team in this group will simply not be included.
00:22:38
Speaker
the, for the poor teams in this group alongside Morocco, which includes Niger and also Tanzania and Zambia. They're going to simply have to beat Morocco for a World Cup spot or the World Cup dream is over, which is unfortunate.
00:22:53
Speaker
It is. It is unfortunate. That's the truth of it. As a neutral, you can say this was one of the more lopsided groups, but at the same time, you want fair shot for everyone.
00:23:04
Speaker
um I think Congo may have been the second... best team here, didn't play like it. Tanzania was a pleasant surprise, and I do think that is an unfortunate blow for them.
00:23:16
Speaker
At the end of the day, whether it is a they just eliminate the second-place team from this group, they use a points-per-game metric, and these teams are busted anyway because of having to play Morocco.
00:23:27
Speaker
ah In less games. Yeah, um I don't think and it's going to necessarily rob a deserving team. No, from a spot when you look at the rest of the second place table, because there are a lot of really good teams that are not even going to get at the top of that table.
00:23:41
Speaker
um But if anything, this is a win for those teams. It it makes it little easier for them. Yeah, it's important to to point out that Congo had also already forfeited a match because they refused to travel to the DR Congo because their stadium was... They wanted to play in their stadium in their country. It didn't meet the requirements. They said it met the requirements. They simply refused to travel.
00:24:01
Speaker
And that, at that point, gifted a 3-0 result to Niger. And that's what has Niger in second place this So Group B has been... It's been a bit of ah of a ride. And again, we're fairly confident that Morocco would just see this group out. So we could move on from the housekeeping...
00:24:16
Speaker
And on to, let's to 30,000 foot here. I think this is a big window, as I said in the open, because we're going to be able to understand what the conversation is going to be in Africa because there are so many teams. This is such an evenly matched confederation that there's a lot of teams sitting on, you know, six to eight points where they're in the conversation. You have to consider them. You have to pay attention to them, but they might not make it to the end of the race here. And I think this is going to big chance to separate some of those teams. So I think seated teams are in varying degrees of good shapes in just about every group.
00:24:49
Speaker
Not in Group C. We'll get to that in a minute. Nigeria are and are in bad shape there. And not in Group I, where Mali were actually a seeded team, but they trail both Comoros and Ghana. That being said, that was the group that from the start we had pegged to be one of the most even.
00:25:02
Speaker
There are big opportunities here for some of those seeded teams, some of the traditional African powers to widen those gaps. They've got direct matchups against the team chasing them. I'm looking at Senegal. I'm looking at Cameroon. I'm looking at Morocco. I'm looking at Algeria.
00:25:14
Speaker
Those teams could really take a big step forward this window to be comfortably in front going into those final four matches in September and October. But conversely, that also means that those challengers could really make some noise if they pick off a couple of big results against those teams.
00:25:28
Speaker
There's a lot of groups that are still tight. Again, I think you're still back in the top teams just about top to bottom here. But admit you have to keep an eye on just about all of it because all of a sudden a team picks up six points in this window and they're right in the fight.
00:25:40
Speaker
It's too early to to do the cutoff to 15 to 2015, like we've said we want to do. um But just to highlight the matchups for those kind of big, heavy-seated teams that can help them.
00:25:53
Speaker
Again, we're talking about Senegal is in a little trouble, right? They're behind Sudan on points. Algeria tied on points. Okay, but then you look at who they're playing this window, and it's a lot easier for them. Yeah.
00:26:05
Speaker
i I had it ready to go right away, but then I lost it. um Senegal has an easy-ish match in their second one against Togo. And the first one is against, how fast can I get it? Sudan. That's the big one. yeah Yeah. They should be fine.
00:26:22
Speaker
I guess that'll be a really fun one. that's yeah Is that in your... ah It is. It is. it's It's probably, I think, the match of the the first leg of this window. I think it is one of the matches to watch. Yeah. yeah So the the point here is that I think there are a couple of matches in particular, we're going to highlight them here in a second, a couple of matches in particular that you really need to pay attention here.
00:26:39
Speaker
And then again, the thing with Africa is there are like five teams in Africa that you can write off. Essentially, if you're not a part of the African continent and you're an island, you can probably be written off, right?
00:26:50
Speaker
But other than that, just about everybody can make a result and get something off of just about everybody. And that's going to make it really interesting. So I think that the best way for us to kind of look at this here, Amit, is rather than go group by group and talk about all of these seeded teams and unseeded teams and all that, let's kind of go day by day and let's pick out some of the matches to watch here. And Africa is great because all of their matches are available worldwide on FIFA Plus. Super easy to watch.
00:27:12
Speaker
Just crank up the stream, put it on the television, and you've got African football all weekend long. So on Wednesday, that's right, things start on Wednesdays. We've had an interesting match between Liberia and Tunisia. It is the first of many potential challenger versus seed matchups in this window.
00:27:27
Speaker
These are going to go a long way to determining who exactly is comfortable down the stretch. Tunisia are one of those teams, admit, that are in a good spot. They are not completely comfortable. They're only two points clear of Namibia. They're three points clear of Liberia.
00:27:40
Speaker
they've got Malawi four points behind them, but this is the type of matchup that if Tunisia get the three points, they're going to be in really good shape. If Liberia get the three points, this group becomes wide open and we're going to see a lot of those matches in this cycle.
00:27:54
Speaker
Yeah, I think well said you back Tunisia here, but it's a, none of these are easy ah road trips. Yeah. um As the, the comfortability meter goes, we think Tunisia will be on the the better side of things, yeah but we have to see it. They're they're in pretty good shape.
00:28:13
Speaker
Yep. And that's one of just three matches to be played on Wednesday. And I think it is the pick of the group. Cameroon are also in action on Wednesday. They play Eswatini. That should really be three points for Cameroon. Eswatini have not picked up a point yet in this qualification, but it's at the same time as Tunisia. So keep an eye on Cameroon until they're comfortably ahead in that match.
00:28:31
Speaker
Moving to Thursday, I think the the pick of the day on Thursday is Comoros Mali in that group that we've talked about, that group I. Comoros have been one of these stories in African qualifications so far. They are top of the group on nine points alongside Ghana. They have two games at home this window, which is massive opportunity.
00:28:48
Speaker
ah That being said, those games at home are not going to be played at home in Comoros. They have to play them in Morocco. That's unfortunate, especially considering they had played games at Comoros so far in this qualification cycle.
00:28:59
Speaker
I don't know the story there. I don't know what's happening with the Comor... What's the Comor... I don't know. The stadium in Comoros. We'll go with that. i don't know what's going on there. But it's a big matchup against Mali, who have been the seeded team.
00:29:11
Speaker
And I think, Amit, this is probably Mali's last chance to kind of get their... Get themselves back into the racing group. by It's a big match on Thursday. This is one of the biggest ones of all of it in terms of that group is a pressure group.
00:29:25
Speaker
ah Molly needs it. Comoros has been a great story, like you said. um This is going to be really exciting because I think you're going to get ah probably as spirited a performance as you can see from Comoros, and they've already really impressed us ah stealing points, and it is a bummer. They're not at home, like you said. This is going to be really fun. I could not tell you what's going to happen. You you think Molly will get themselves back in the race, but i think this has been one of the the most logic defying ah groups we've we've had so far.
00:29:56
Speaker
yeah So if there's a shock story to be had in all of World Cup qualifying, it could be right here. Yeah, and and and and this group, this match in particular, really feels like the pressure point here because if Molly pick up three points, the race is on and it's ah you know a three, potentially even even a four-way race depending on what Madagascar do.
00:30:13
Speaker
If Kormoros win, then it's like, all right, hey, there's only you know we're halfway through this World Cup qualification and we're top of the table. And so they're they're right in the conversation. So big, especially because that second match for Kormoros is against Chad who have been the worst team in this group so far. And so you I think you'd back them to take the three points there, but it's a big opportunity. That's the the big one on Thursday.
00:30:31
Speaker
There are a lot of matches on Thursday featuring better teams against worse teams. There's also a couple of challenger challenger matches. I look at like Libya Angola on Thursday afternoon. I think that's a big one to to determine who can be in the second place race in that group.
00:30:44
Speaker
Same story with Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau in the Group A alongside Egypt. ah Big opportunities for for Mozambique, Cape Verde, a couple of former Portuguese colonies that have had good starts and have winnable home games.
00:30:54
Speaker
So there's some good action on Thursday, but Comoros Mali is certainly the the pick of the of the bunch. And then on Friday, i mean look, two different confederations where Group C stands for chaos in both of them. Because on Friday, we've got Rwanda, Nigeria, and South Africa against Lesotho.
00:31:10
Speaker
This is again the group C for chaos here in Africa. Nigeria, who have been the seeded team, have been absolutely terrible in this group so far. They have yet to win a match. They are on just three points. They are sitting in fifth place. Fortunately for them, nobody has taken hold of this group and run away.
00:31:24
Speaker
That leaves Nigeria in the conversation. Nigeria did qualify for the African Cup of Nations, but they didn't win either of their matches against Rwanda. And Rwanda, Amit, failed to qualify for the African Cup of Nations, losing out head-to-head against Benin. Both of them finished on eight points in their AFCON qualification group, but Benin had better head-to-head results.
00:31:42
Speaker
And Benin are also in this group. So Benin, Nigeria, and Rwanda shared an African couple an african cup of a nations qualifying group and are also sharing a World Cup qualification group. Don't know what the odds of that are. I imagine they're not high.
00:31:55
Speaker
That being said, for probably like the third straight show, Amit, I ask you, it's now or never for Nigeria, right? No, because i don't think the other teams are going to kill them with points by like putting them out of the race.
00:32:10
Speaker
But you've got to get at least three. Yeah, you've got to win a game at some point. You've got to win a game. i mean The talent pool is what it is. i don't know. Yeah, I guess it it is now or never. They've got to get a game. I don't know which game is easier.
00:32:25
Speaker
Away versus Rwanda or home versus um ah Zimbabwe. its It should be the Zimbabwe matchup should be easiest. Zimbabwe are the team that are bought in this group, but Nigeria also drew against Zimbabwe the first time they played. There's nothing easy for this Nigeria team. I think that's the big takeaway here.
00:32:42
Speaker
Yeah, that's the best way to put it. I'm, I don't think anyone should be set to get points. Like, do you think South Africa has been a really good story? I don't know. They're, they're good. They're better than I thought they were.
00:32:55
Speaker
ah You said Lesotho is tricky. I don't know. They got five points. Yeah. They got five points here. Like, I mean, I don't know. They beat Rwanda.
00:33:06
Speaker
The truth is we we can't predict what happens in these games. We could just come and tell you, you gotta, you gotta, you gotta see what happens. Cause we need more points to know. And this group is, this group is nuts.
00:33:16
Speaker
Yeah, and Zimbabwe and Benin play on Thursday. That's probably a good matchup to tune into because Benin are actually technically tied for first in this group as well in third place on seven points with plus one goal differential. Somebody can really make Nigeria's life hard by picking up six points here. I don't know if it's going to be Rwanda. I don't know if it's Benin. I don't know if it's South Africa.
00:33:34
Speaker
But you could put Nigeria in a really uncomfortable spot by picking up six points here. That being said, how this group has gone, we're probably going to be just looking at a complete train wreck when this is said and done. There's going to be teams on eight points. There's to on nine points. Nigeria are going to be on five and still in.
00:33:47
Speaker
It's just a complete mess and you have to watch it to appreciate it. Yeah, it's can't look away. I think that's most likely we're going to see like eight, six, five, seven is going to be right like that.
00:33:58
Speaker
Yeah. The other game on Friday that I'm interested in is watching Niger in Morocco and Morocco in Morocco, but not a Moroccan home game. Not sure how that happened. But Morocco are in that very weird group B situation we talked about. They played three, they've won three, and they've conceded just once.
00:34:13
Speaker
Now they have away match that's actually played at home. The table limit here is technically mathematically closed, so you have to kind of keep an eye on it. This is Africa, but you'd expect Morocco to roll three points here against Niger, and they should be in a comfortable position to kind of sail to the end of World Cup qualification.
00:34:28
Speaker
But it's at its own weird time slot, 5.30 p.m. Eastern time. So it's always fun to watch Morocco play too. Agreed. They're, you know, one of the most impressive teams. I think they should be well on their way. This will be a good ah test for them. As always, they always pass generally. ah yeah They're one of the few teams that feels ah trustworthy, trustworthy in a confederation where that's just not the case. And certainly they got they earned a good draw ah this cycle.
00:34:56
Speaker
um Yeah. So this should be a more of that. But got to see. Also on Friday, there's a big number of kind of first and second place teams playing pretty poor opposition. Ghana play Chad. Guinea play Somalia. Egypt are on the road against Ethiopia. Algeria play Botswana, which is actually a bit of a more interesting match. Burkina Faso play Djibouti.
00:35:14
Speaker
So keep an eye on those teams. Make sure they pick up their three points to to keep the conversation going. And then Amit, we get the big one on Saturday that we talked about. It's Sudan and Senegal and Libya. This might be the game of the window in Africa. Sudan have been a great story. Senegal have kind of hopped and puffed and struggled a little bit.
00:35:29
Speaker
This is, like that game that we talked about with Comrose, a real inflection point in this group. Because if Sudan get three points and put themselves in a good situation, then this is on for the backstretch. If Senegal go and win this match, I think you'd probably back Senegal to kind of kick on and and see this out down the stretch. But this is a huge match, and i think it's gonna be really fun.
00:35:49
Speaker
This should be really fun, and it's a good stylistic class as well. Sudan, really good at playing without the ball and and long balls, counterattacks. Senegal, they're a huff and puff team.
00:35:59
Speaker
um they you know I don't think they're as good as they have been in their last iterations where they were kind of you know some of the the hipster teams under ah really like overperforming.
00:36:09
Speaker
They're just fine. ah Their best player is a little old, but they're going to have the ball. They're going to struggle to use it. They should be really finely poised. um i i don't have We don't have the numbers up in front of us. There's no prediction markets here.
00:36:22
Speaker
Obviously, Senegal are probably slightly favored, but this is really as good as it gets for this early in the window. It does feel like if Sudan are going to... pull off a shock in this group.
00:36:35
Speaker
It has something has to happen here to be part of that story. Yeah, this is this is where you definitely want the three points because it's a chance to make life harder for Senegal down that stretch. And so I think that's certainly where where things get really interesting.
00:36:48
Speaker
Shifting to the back half of this window, ah Sunday, there's only two games and it's Eswatini, Mauritius, Kenya, Gabon. Go see your family. Do something on Sunday morning. You might not watch African football. Monday, there's some interesting matchups. Ivory Coast play Gambia. That's a team we haven't talked about. Ivory Coast are in pretty good shape. Tunisia play ah Malawi. Yeah.
00:37:05
Speaker
Good matchups, but nothing necessarily that that that really catches your eye. And then on Tuesday, I think to close out this winter, there's some really great matches. It's the second round of Group C for Chaos, Nigeria, is Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Lesotho, Benin, South Africa, and the Ivory Coast.
00:37:17
Speaker
Just watch Group C. You won't be disappointed. then Cameroon-Libya. I mentioned Cameroon a little bit earlier in the show. That's another seed versus challenger matchup in Algeria-Mozambique. It's the same type of thing. And there's just a lot of great mid-table versus mid-table matchups here that that are always worth catching the eye.
00:37:32
Speaker
We've talked about kind of Group C and Group I as the real big pressure points. is Is there anything else here in Africa that that that we haven't talked about? I think I'm kind of intrigued by Algeria in Group G. They're level on points with Mozambique.
00:37:44
Speaker
They weren't super impressive the last time we saw them on a major stage. I think there could be something there, huh? Yeah, I think the two games on Tuesday that you highlighted, Algeria, Mozambique, Cameron, Libya, they should be good games. I think...
00:37:56
Speaker
Both of those teams are in a good spot in the driver's seat, Cameron and Algeria. And we watched them, and I don't think we ah think there's there's anything for concern. But you have to go earn it. And I do think yeah Libya and Mozambique are surprisingly solid.
00:38:14
Speaker
They're not good teams, but they're not bad. And they're going to have to make you earn it. And I just think... Cameroon, I think, is a little better than Algeria right now. Algeria are a little like on the downswing.
00:38:27
Speaker
But the the styles in this matchup, the way they use the ball versus Mozambique, it it'll be fun to watch. I think they're going to have to huff and puff. It could be an early goal and then not be fun, but there's a good chance that these games could have a really fun final half hour of someone trying to to push it through a team chasing a goal when they really need it.
00:38:47
Speaker
and This will be the slate is crazy on Tuesday, but if you need to, I think that's where you want outside of C for chaos. um And look, the last time we saw Algeria, they were losing at home to Jurgen A hype train, who are still right in the chase in in Group G. So there's there's a lot there. I think common sense would say that Algeria will probably still manage to get it done. But there's a lot of teams in the race there that that are worth keeping an eye on. All right.
00:39:13
Speaker
We've done Africa. Let's head across the Atlantic Ocean. Let's head to Connival. And it it it makes me a little bit sad, but there might not be that much drama in South America in this qualification cycle. There are some good games, though. ah We've said this pretty much from from the start of this World Cup qualification cycle.
00:39:28
Speaker
you and i feel confident that Argentina, Uruguay, Ecuador, Colombia, and Brazil will make the World Cup. Those are the top five teams on the table. They are in varying degrees of mathematical comfortability, but with only six games left to play here in South America, it would take a lot for any of those five teams to actually miss the World Cup or fall into the playoff.
00:39:48
Speaker
And Paraguay's run of form under Gustavo Alfaro has them in very good shape and right on the verge of entering that conversation of you feel really good about them to make the World Cup. So where does that leave us? That kind of leaves us with Bolivia, Venezuela, and maybe still somehow Chile fighting it out for the playoff.
00:40:05
Speaker
That's the state of the game here. There's just not that much drama, unfortunately. It's the good and bad part of the pure 10 team table. Yeah. You get a lot of good games at a lot of points in the window, but the longer you go, the less drama there is.
00:40:20
Speaker
I think that's just what it comes down to. a Yeah. I mean, there's a, there's like two or three, ah three or four like really really big ones for that sixth seventh spot that you're going to talk about in a second and the rest I think you know that some teams have have earned ah to take their foot off the gas and I think that's that's fair because it's not like they were playing easy games the past 12 match days they've been slogging it out so it's kind of the way it goes And I think we've seen some of that, right? Like Messi's not going to play for Argentina. Neymar got cut from the Brazil squad because of kind of not super serious injuries, but also it's March and we're in pretty good shape here. There's no need to to to force it.
00:41:04
Speaker
I've been pretty adamant from the start of of this podcast admit that I am in favor of the World Cup expanding. I think it's good. I will say, I will concede here though, under the old format, this South American table would have been bonkers, right? If there's only four teams going to the world cup and fifth place is the playoff spot, this table in this situation right now would have been just dripping with drama. And unfortunately that's not the case, but it doesn't mean we get great drama in the other confederation. So you have to take in what you can choose. So what are the games to watch here in carnival? We've kind of hit the lay of the lamb.
00:41:38
Speaker
Paraguay and Chile on Thursday in Asuncion might just be Chile's last chance to make a run. i feel like we've said it's Chile's last chance to make a run for like six years now in like over three different qualification cycles.
00:41:49
Speaker
But Chile needs six points in in this window if they're gonna have any chance at direct qualification. That said, three or even four might just be enough to to join that playoff race. Paraguay have been really good under Gustavo Alfaro. Three points against Chile, and it's pretty hard to see them not making the World Cup from that position.
00:42:06
Speaker
I think so. It would it would be hard for for Venezuela or Bolivia to catch them. They did their hard work and should be a fun game. I think you're getting Chile's last gasp effort as well.
00:42:20
Speaker
Because they they think they could get something against Paraguay. Absolutely. Going to be ugly. Going to be some really, really ugly stuff. I... i I got to give Alfaro his credit. They, they've, they've gotten the goals at the right time, but also he's pushed all the right buttons.
00:42:37
Speaker
Yeah. um I think this is a we'll see how much magic dust carries from November to March. um But the fixtures are here for Paraguay. And this is one of them. I, you back them, I think, right?
00:42:50
Speaker
Yeah, like, look, if Paraguay win this, they're on 20 points, and I don't think you're backing... Yeah, like, I don't think you're backing Bolivia or Venezuela to get to 20 points with the with the six games that they have left. I mean, maybe they could, um but this and then one more result, and Paraguay will be feeling really, really good about themselves.
00:43:07
Speaker
Also on Thursday, we have Peru, Bolivia, and Lima. Only in South America could the seventh place team taking on the 10th place team be one of the most attractive matches, but that's what we've got. This is actually legitimately this time proves last chance. And it's the rare chance for Bolivia to go and grab something away from home. It's a big, big opportunity here for Bolivia in the race for seventh and even the the race for six and and Peru have have absolutely got to have it at this point.
00:43:30
Speaker
ah It's not going to be pretty. These aren't the best teams. These aren't the biggest names, but it's the drama that we've got, right? Yeah, this is worse than Paraguay, Chile. yeah This is going to be a slog. And yeah, I've written off Peru, but I 100% believe that if Bolivia makes it It involves them getting a point here and maybe three.
00:43:55
Speaker
I don't know how they do it. I mean, I know how they play, especially when they're at home. This is just like the Bolivia matches or something else at Peru. Where are the shots getting taken in this one? Nothing good. Nothing good is happening. This is grimy, grimy stuff, but it's desperate stuff.
00:44:11
Speaker
Yeah. Peru are so old, just yeah so, so old. Uh, like they're going to be trotting out a team with like an average age of like 33 in their starting 11 in this match. But again, look, Peru aren't quite out of this yet because they play Venezuela away on Tuesday. So if Peru can somehow miraculously get six points here, they're right at the race for seven. That's a really weird thing to say because they have been atrocious so far in this qualification cycle.
00:44:39
Speaker
Also, the first round games, we have Uruguay and Argentina on Friday. ah It's not a game that's going to matter it for qualification purposes, although it could play a big role to whether one of those teams actually mathematically punch their ticket this time around. But it's going to be really fun because Uruguay-Argentina is really fun. Bielsa, Montevideo, the pressure on Bielsa, Argentina coming in. There's no Messi.
00:44:57
Speaker
It's just one of those matches it that you just got to sit back and watch it because it's Uruguay-Argentina and you can't miss it. Always, always. It should be. Well, it's always a good check to see where Bielsa's guys are running for him or not. yeah And generally, i think Uruguay will never pass up a chance at home to try to to get one ah over Argentina. That that ah atmosphere is always really good. um Yeah, i'm I'm skipping ahead, but ah who who do you think has more pressure on them right now?
00:45:30
Speaker
Bolivia or Venezuela? I think, oh, this is tough because I think it's um it's a unique opportunity for both countries between Bolivia and Venezuela.
00:45:41
Speaker
I think Venezuela probably have a bit more pressure because I think they're simply more talented than Bolivia is. That said, Bolivia have also, for them, have a really good qualification cycle. And what does that mean?
00:45:53
Speaker
That means that you can't really waste a cycle in which you win an a away game, right? Like you should take advantage of that sort of thing. I think there's there's certainly pressure on both those teams. And I think the Tuesday matchups are going to be really interesting.
00:46:04
Speaker
Bolivia have a home game against Uruguay. That's a tough matchup on paper, but it's at home. It's in El Alto. Can they get the three points there? Venezuela, Venomid, are playing in that home match against Peru that we talked about.
00:46:16
Speaker
Huge opportunity for Venezuela. They play Ecuador away on Friday, which is go to be a more difficult spot for them to pick up points. And then Chile are in an interesting spot because they play Ecuador at home. Tuesday's going to be a really big day in in the race for seventh. I think that's certainly fair to say.
00:46:32
Speaker
Yeah, I've got my eyes circled on Venezuela, Peru. Yes, that's that's the three points that Venezuela has to have yeah to have any chance of this without it.
00:46:42
Speaker
The math probably is not there. um You know, you're hoping for decent results elsewhere. You hope you get a point against Ecuador. You hope Bolivia doesn't get in against Peru. But at the same time, you don't want Peru breathing too hard down your neck.
00:46:55
Speaker
You can't control that. You've got to try to get these three. And then they're really in good shape for seventh, at least. um Yeah, I mean, also, like, what do you handicap Bolivia-Uruguay when Uruguay are basically in this thing? but And they they might be emotionally, you know, ah recovering after a big charged match against Argentina.
00:47:17
Speaker
i think it's like Do they want to come to Bolivia and play? Yeah, well, it's also ah extremely fascinating because what do Marcelo Bielsa's teams do? They run. What can you not do playing away against Bolivia? Run, right? I think it's a super fascinating tactical, like who's going to, like is Marcelo Bielsa going to say, you know what, we got to change the way we play.
00:47:36
Speaker
I don't think that's what Marcelo Bielsa does, but I also don't know that his players can literally physically do that for 90 minutes against Bolivia. I think it's a really fun proposition. It's super interesting. And then just getting ahead of ourselves a bit in June, Venezuela and Bolivia play in Venezuela. That's going to be a massive, massive match. And I think Venezuela in this window, their goal is to get ahead of Bolivia in the table.
00:47:56
Speaker
I don't think they really care how they do it. If it's they get one point Bolivia gets zero or if they get three and Bolivia gets one or four and three or whatever it is. I think Venezuela want to go into that match in June ahead of Bolivia in the table, knowing that Bolivia has to beat us to pass us.
00:48:12
Speaker
I think that'd be a good spot for Venezuela to be in. I agree. i'm I'm very, very concerned, but I'm feeling okay given this window, yeah which means that Venezuela-Peru certainly is going to bring me some shenanigans. I can feel it already.
00:48:29
Speaker
That game going to be something. It's going to be fun. There's enough in this Commonwealth window to look forward to. And also it has the the time zone benefit of being played at its own kind of window where it's not competing against a lot of these other qualifiers. So be sure to tune in for some Commonwealth football. All right.
00:48:45
Speaker
We talked about it at the start. We've got a ticket that we are handing out in Oceana. It's the one spot we know that we are handing out. And the question, as it has been from the start of Oceania qualifying, is are you backing anyone to beat New Zealand?
00:48:57
Speaker
The all whites have three wins in three, 19 goals scored, one goal conceded in the group stage. So, Amit, can they quiet Rory Krishna and Fiji in the semifinal? And perhaps more importantly, will you be awake to watch it?
00:49:11
Speaker
ah The answer to that one is no. ah Because if I'm going to watch anything else at a relatively early time zone and on Friday, I ain't watching this. so Listen, come on, New Zealand. I trust you, right? like well i don't have I truly don't have anything to add other than i you don't New Zealand should really take care of this.
00:49:31
Speaker
Yeah, and I think so. I think the interesting thing here at Oceana is the one matchup that we haven't really seen in recent memory is New Zealand, New Caledonia. New Caledonia actually pulled out of the OFC Nations Cup last summer, but then they came in and topped Group A in qualifications. So perhaps there's some potential difficulty there. But look, the bottom line is this. Anything other than New Zealand claiming that ticket in Oceana on whatever it is, I think it's...
00:49:52
Speaker
Sunday night, Monday morning in the States. Yeah. Monday morning, Sunday night in this part of the world ah would be a a big, big surprise. But as we've said multiple times a minute, look, if you are Tahiti, New Caledonia or Fiji, the easiest way to make the world cup is to beat New Zealand.
00:50:08
Speaker
Because if you don't beat New Zealand, the second place team in Oceania does get to go into the Intercontinental Playoff. But not going to be backing yourselves to get out of that. So if you want to make the World Cup, if you're one of those countries, beat New Zealand.
00:50:19
Speaker
That's proven to be hard so far in this cycle. And all right, let's close out the show by previewing the debut of UEFA World Cup qualification. It is as weird of a debut as you could possibly imagine. You and I, that we recorded a a draw reaction podcast when UEFA held their draw in December.
00:50:36
Speaker
That has most of what you need to know as far as the big picture here. We will also incredibly find out the composition, the final composition of the groups that aren't yet set when the Nations League quarterfinals wrap up on Sunday. That means, yes, UEFA will be starting their qualification cycle with their groups not yet fully 100% set, which is something that doesn't feel like it should happen to UEFA. That should be something that's happening in a different confederation around the world.
00:51:01
Speaker
But that is what the calendar crunch and the the emphasis on Nations League has done. This is a mishmash of games. There are not a lot of big teams in action. But i mean I do think there are a few teams in action worth keeping an eye on. Let's start with podcast favorites. England.
00:51:15
Speaker
They're the only pot one team that will play in this window. They play Albania and Latvia at home. but These are the games that make the athletic football writers moan about international football. Yes.
00:51:26
Speaker
And they're the games where Harry Kane pads his stats. What else are we here for? I don't even know. I haven't looked at the England squad. um You know, this is ah this is a weird time for them to be caring, ah for England to be caring.
00:51:41
Speaker
If England were Nations League, I guarantee you there would be juice for them within their ah you know their circles. But I don't think they have any juice. But at the same time, they can't afford to to let it slip.
00:51:52
Speaker
ah What's the manager situation right now for these It's Thomas Tuchel. It's Thomas Tuchel making his England debut. I think that's legitimately pretty interesting. So, you know, I think he's got to kind of manage that moment a little bit because if they win, no one's going to care. People are to like, good job.
00:52:09
Speaker
If anything goes wrong, the sky will be falling. And he certainly got a bunch of players involved in every rather big club campaigns, which is – you know this is not just a Europe thing. I was going to bring this up about Uruguay and Argentina and that like yeah if I have any Uruguay players involved in anything remotely ah serious in club football, I'm asking them not to play in Bolivia on Tuesday. i would like to i would like them I would like Marcelo Bielsa to play someone else. yeah um But to take that frame of thinking, like yeah, this is just a weird one because they
00:52:48
Speaker
All these teams, as we as we're going to talk about, touch on, um they just don't have as many players at the biggest clubs. A few of them do, and those are the ones that actually have something to to really gain in this window.
00:53:00
Speaker
But this is kind of the bottom of the barrel of European football. the way this windows works. England don't get that luxury because they're not in the good part of the nation's league.
00:53:11
Speaker
Yeah. So I think it's kind of a ah mental test for Tuchel, which is what I started with, but it's interesting in that sense. I just, there's like, we've literally spent a whole podcast. There's like 10, 15 things that are much more fun.
00:53:24
Speaker
This window. yeah But yes, if you want your ing England Tuchel UEFA angle, it it'll be interesting in that sense. I think the club point you you you bring up is is interesting. And I think there's there's two ways of looking at it, right?
00:53:37
Speaker
If you are a player at a club that's in a big title race and that sort of thing, but also your national team is in a big spot, I don't think there's really any, I don't think it makes any difference, right? You're going into situation where you're playing big games.
00:53:49
Speaker
If you're a player that is at a big club in a big title race, Champions League, etc. And then you're coming into an international fixture where you're playing Albania and Latvia at home. I think that can actually legitimately affect your motivation and your willingness to be there and your want to. And that's something to keep an eye on for England.
00:54:07
Speaker
But they should roll in both of these games. I think we are in agreement with that. Norway are also in action. They have a tough draw. Either Germany or Italy will fall into their group I based on how that Nations League quarterfinal goes.
00:54:20
Speaker
The last time Norway made a World Cup was 1998. They haven't been in the Euro since 2000. They also have two really good, perhaps world-class strikers in Holland and Sorloff. They play Moldova away and Israel away in a match that we've played in Hungary.
00:54:34
Speaker
It should be six points, but I think that Israel game is one of the actual interesting UEFA games this window emit because if Norway are to put pressure on whether it's Germany or Italy for the direct World Cup qualification spot or at least make themselves secure in the playoff spot,
00:54:50
Speaker
Israel is probably one of the teams that they are fighting against for that. And Norway have been really bad in qualification cycles. And so starting with anything less than six points would be a disappointment.
00:55:03
Speaker
I agree. And this is the time of the podcast where I make my Philadelphia union shout out. Yeah. Uh, Ty Barabo, uh, Philadelphia union striker has been lighting it up at MLS.
00:55:14
Speaker
Um, This is a fine Israel team. I don't think they're they're very good. I think they're worse than Norway. But um they're certainly not bad. like this is they they're They're completely solid. They certainly, i think, could believe in themselves to get this second spot.
00:55:28
Speaker
I'm with you 100%. This is actually one of the better games of the window. In fact, maybe the most interesting game of this UEFA whole slate. um so So one to watch. And I do think you know this has real stakes for... Can someone upset the top? But more likely...
00:55:45
Speaker
one of these teams is going to have a really good chance in the playoff round yeah and want second in this group. So I think this is ah is actually actually a good one. it And honestly, it will be ah some some good attacking talent on the field.
00:55:58
Speaker
ah maybe it will Maybe it will be boring because it can be played that way, but should get some goals. Yeah, and and I think... Yeah, it's it's a big opportunity for both those teams, and and it's certainly one of the games that that we're looking at keeping an eye on. And look, the recipe for one of these teams to create trouble for one of the big teams that's falling into this group or one of the big teams that isn't debuting yet, such as Austria Belgium, is bank points early and put pressure on, right?
00:56:23
Speaker
So if Norway are... already on six points before Germany or Italy even know that they're in this group. I think that could at least put the pressure on those teams to to get the sort of results that they'll need to get another interesting team, or at least theoretically an interesting team. It's not an interesting team. It's Poland.
00:56:39
Speaker
They await the losers of Spain and Netherlands. ah They play Lithuania and Malta at home. We're not going to learn anything about Poland. We're not going to enjoy watching Poland, but we do have to mention that they're in action because I think they're a team that will be fighting for a World Cup spot in that group and should at least be be favored to make second. But but don't watch Poland-Lithuania.
00:56:57
Speaker
Can Robert Lewandowski score a bunch? Maybe. just Just put Poland in the playoff and tell me who they're playing, and we'll talk then. Okay, sounds good. Then there are two sets of teams that play in this window that I think are teams that will be at least fighting it out for a playoff, and in one case could perhaps be fighting it out for a World Cup spot.
00:57:16
Speaker
Let's start in what I think is the most wide-open group in UEFA, and that is Group H. Romania omit will play Bosnia and Herzegovina. Austria, who are the seeded team in this group and were the weakest of the seeded teams, will not play until June.
00:57:30
Speaker
But Romania and Bosnia will play on Friday in the opener in this group in what could eventually be a big match for the playoff race and also in the challenger status to Austria.
00:57:41
Speaker
This was a group that you and I picked out. We said it's wide open. This is one of the games that's going to really matter in this group and is one that you should probably take time out of your day to watch. 100% similar to Norway is real two solid teams, actually some good talent on the field.
00:57:54
Speaker
Um, not, uh, none of these teams I would say are, are even as good as Austria and, but Austria isn't that good. Like there's a reason why we said it's wide open. Uh, this will be fun. I think, uh, yeah, winner here gets inside track and it's an early chance to kind of get ahead of stuff.
00:58:09
Speaker
I think they'll both kind of be excited about that opportunity. yeah, And there are also teams that don't play boring football, right? Yes, Romania definitely do not. yeah They're going to go for it. like I think there's going to be action in this match. It's going to up and down. It's going to kind of fun. i I think that's something to...
00:58:25
Speaker
to keep an eye on for sure. And then the other one of those matchups that is similar in that vein, but with a stronger team atop the group, that's Wales and North Macedonia. They will play on Tuesday on the second match day. They're the second and third seeded teams in Group J. Belgium are the heavily favored seeded team there. They also, like Austria, won't play until June. I don't think this game is as interesting as Romania versus Bosnia and Herzegovina, but...
00:58:48
Speaker
One of these teams is probably going to the playoff unless you feel strongly about Kazakhstan or Liechtenstein, which I certainly hope you don't. Right? So this game matters. Yeah, it matters. I think both of these teams are actually worse than Romania and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
00:59:02
Speaker
I don't think ah North Macedonia is that good at all. I don't really like rate Wales, but like you kind of just have to pencil them in as always, like, they're a solid second pot-ish team in Europe every time.
00:59:16
Speaker
They're the 20th to 25th best team in Europe, right? like They're in that window. Yeah, exactly. And so... They could certainly sneak in. I think they're a type of team that would probably be an underdog in a playoff.
00:59:28
Speaker
You'd expect them to get the playoff. You expect them to beat Macedonia here, but they're not good enough to to have anything easy. It's a fine game. the other one The other two in this ilk are a little better, but certainly Wales will have to earn it.
00:59:42
Speaker
Yeah, and again... somebody's going to go to the playoff from this group. That's just a mathematical fact. That's the way it has to go. And and and this is a game that's going to go a long way in determining that. And finally, imit the the logistics of how UEFA qualification worked is because of the number of teams, there are groups of four and groups of five. There are one, two, three, four, five, six groups of five. And then there are groups of four. Those groups of four won't even start until September and they will do a sprint qualification September October, November.
01:00:08
Speaker
These groups of five have to get going early. The groups of five naturally feature the worst teams in UEFA. And those are the teams that were in the so-called pot five. So my question to you, Amit, is will any of our pot five brethren pick up points here? We've got Malta, San Marino, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Andorra, and Gibraltar. Can we back any of the boys to pick something up? There's some favorable matchups.
01:00:31
Speaker
Yeah. Sipper San Marino right off the bat. I think you could see something. i
01:00:40
Speaker
Uh... Uh-oh. Uh-oh. No. Is Faroe Islands included here? Are they in the bottom? No, Faroe Islands are a pop four team. Wow. Moldova's worse than Faroe Islands. How about that? Yeah.
01:00:56
Speaker
um Farrell Islands, you're telling me Moldova, Estonia, those two teams play. Yeah. Moldova, Estonia, they can't get a point at home. Maybe. Perhaps.
01:01:07
Speaker
Look, there's a lot of those matches in UEFA in this cycle. I think it's the point that that we're trying to make here. The worst teams in UEFA will be on the pitch. And there's some of us who like that sort of thing. so Yeah, let's let's see.
01:01:19
Speaker
I don't think any of these teams are are going to really factor into the World Cup qualification cycle. But look, as as we've said from the start of this whole podcast that we brought back, you know, a year and a half ago now or whatever it was, the beauty of the World Cup is all of these teams starting from zero and telling themselves that they have the same chance to make the World Cup as any other team.
01:01:37
Speaker
And that's the conversation here. All right, a bit deep breath. I think we've gotten through everything. Are you fully motivated for the week to come here? I'm ready. I know what games I want to watch. And that is what keeps me going.
01:01:50
Speaker
um It's going to be fun. And as always, i think we are going to have so much to parse through yes when we join again.
01:02:01
Speaker
and that will be interesting. But we're going to know so much more. um We're getting closer. We're getting closer. And there's tickets being punched. That's always fun. Just watch what it means. I mean, it might not be that interesting for Japan.
01:02:14
Speaker
But... I mean, it's but yeah yeahs big it's a big deal. There's a tab on the World Cup qualification master spreadsheet that says qualified teams. And that tab is going to have more teams on it by the time we next talk. And I think that's a really exciting point. All right.
01:02:28
Speaker
A big thank you to a bit for joining me. a big thank you to you, our listeners, for making it through over an hour of international football talk. We hope it was as enlightening for you as it was for us. As always, if you want to support what we do on the World Cup After Dark podcast here, you can become a member of our Patreon at patreon.com slash WCAD. For $3 a month, you get access to subscriber-only shows and the vaunted World Cup qualification master spreadsheet, which, as we have said multiple times, will be a big help over the coming days as you try and parse through what you want to watch and what you don't want to watch and where you can watch it.
01:03:02
Speaker
in both the US and Argentina. So be sure to check that out. We will be back at the back end of this window to break it all down. And we'll see you then.