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WCAD 3-33v2: Gold Cup Chit Chat
41 Plays2 days ago
Austin and Amit get together to break down the Gold Cup Group Stage and preview the tournament from the Quarterfinals on. Plus It's now Sir Gareth Southgate.
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Transcript
Gareth Southgate's Knighthood: Merits and Debates
00:00:01
Speaker
It's a very special day on the World Cup After Dark podcast. My name is Austin Miller. I'm joined as always by Evan Malik. In a minute, we will get to talking a bit about the CONCACAF Gold Cup that we promised to you. But a bit, we start today with some big news, courtesy of friend of the show, Isaac Bushnell.
00:00:17
Speaker
Gareth Southgate knighted in England. I got a lot of thoughts here. Knighted for what, Austin? Please, please elaborate. for being a football manager, I guess. i My experience with this is coming from the BBC article.
00:00:34
Speaker
There's a fantastic line in the BBC article. Maybe the best one of the best lines I've read in journalism recently, I bet. It's talking about how Southgate took over, obviously, from after the whole Sam Allard and situation.
00:00:45
Speaker
And the quote is this. He inherited chaos and almost turned it into silver.
00:00:53
Speaker
i feel like I feel like the almost there is is is is kind of the problem, right? You know what? In a just, like, ah sports legacy world, we we would we would love people like Garrett Southgate. And England is right to. their Their national team was kind of not living up to expectations. And then he put them back on the...
00:01:15
Speaker
the the pedestal they should be. But it's a results business. It's a winning business. He didn't he didn't do that, right? um I respect the idea of like enjoying this, but you don't get statues for for second.
00:01:29
Speaker
but No, you don't. He joins Walter Winterbottom as the only knighted manager to not win a major trophy. ah Walter Winterbottom was England's first international manager and led the team from 1946 to 1962.
00:01:44
Speaker
Buddy, if you've got, what, 16 years in charge with no major trophies, you're not making it that long in this day and age. I'll tell you that.
CONCACAF Gold Cup: Timing and Implications
00:01:51
Speaker
The funny thing here to me as well is also, Gareth Southgate's not done, right? Like, how old is Gareth Southgate? Like, he's not, like, 79.
00:02:00
Speaker
Yeah, no, ah he he's got time. He could you know he could still live live up ah good on the promise. He's 54. If we're going to nightdigger Southgate, let's give him 20 more years to do something and then do it.
00:02:15
Speaker
doesn't have to be right now.
00:02:19
Speaker
Yeah. You know what? i I think they're just they were desperate, man. England was desperate. It was dark before he came. I respect it.
00:02:30
Speaker
i don't want to I don't want to say anything mean about the honorary title of being knighted. I think it's ah it's a nice thing that England does. I will say that he has not yet been added to the Wikipedia page of notable Knights.
00:02:43
Speaker
He is not quite. But he is. the The sir is there. The sir is there. The sir is there on the Wikipedia page. I look forward to Sir Gareth Southgate taking over whoever it's going to be and just playing abysmally bad football because that's what Gareth Southgate does.
00:02:57
Speaker
If he takes over a bad club in the Premier League, he could be at the bottom of the table in winter like ah his this other good friend. With Zirvano, there you go. The connection's still tough.
00:03:11
Speaker
This is ostensibly a CONCACAF Gold Cup podcast, and we've chosen to go on about Gareth Southgate for three minutes and his his nighting is um his knighthood, I should say. um If you've made it this far, it's because you really like the show and you are in for some CONCACAF Gold Cup talk.
00:03:26
Speaker
So, I mean, this is this CONCACAF Gold Cup is taking place at this very weird section of time in football. We are one year out from a World Cup that will be taking place in the same countries that are the favorites for this CONCACAF Gold Cup.
00:03:41
Speaker
It is also taking place at the exact same time as the FIFA Club World Cup in the exact same country as the FIFA Club World Cup, which means that there are teams at this tournament that do not have their full choice squads because FIFA chose to prioritize their Club World Cup and make it so that clubs did not have to release players for the Gold Cup who were playing in the Club World Cup.
00:04:03
Speaker
You also have the host of the Gold Cup, the United States, not with their A-team. It's this very weird section of time, but at the end of the day, it is, as we have said many times, the last test, should we say, for the U.S., Mexico, and Canada before the host of the World Cup.
00:04:20
Speaker
The last chance to tinker, maybe for some of these CONCACAF sides before they head into World Cup qualifying starting in September. It's in this weird spot, but I think we're going to be able to to to pull some takeaways from this.
00:04:33
Speaker
Yeah, I think so. I think... the data points for those teams trying to make the world cup or the teams that are already in it's it's really valuable. Even if the context isn't the highest level of competition.
00:04:44
Speaker
um I think we're going to learn a lot about USA, Canada and Mexico in the next few games. And I certainly think for that next kind of tier of CONCACAF, it's been really, really important for them to see what they could do against the bigger teams, see how they handle the smaller teams.
00:05:02
Speaker
And I think for some of the teams we're going to talk about that didn't even make the the quarterfinals here, I think we were going to have some revised expectations on their World Cup qualifying
Evolving Dynamics in CONCACAF Teams
00:05:13
Speaker
hopes.
00:05:13
Speaker
I know World qualifying and Gold Cup are not the same kinds of games, same atmosphere, but the intensity has been good. And... i it It is weird from the the point that like I feel like this is the least amount of traction gist that the Gold Cup has had in the soccer culture moment. just saying a lot because the Gold Cup exists in this. like It happens every two years. There's always a Gold Cup, it feels like. Traction is not exactly what it's good at.
00:05:41
Speaker
it's it's It's not what it's for, but even then, this is the least it's ah had. And that's kind of sad, I think, for the two of us who you know like things like the Gold Cup. but the The matches are still like meaningful for the teams, the managers, and the players. So in that sense, that's what we like about it.
00:06:00
Speaker
And yeah, i don't I don't have anything more to add than that. it's It's been meaningful, and there's going to be some very high leverage data points coming for the big teams.
00:06:11
Speaker
So let's talk about some big overarching takeaways here, Amit. I think the biggest one for me and kind of the main point here is, and this is something that we've seen throughout CONCACAF. This isn't just a Gold Cup point, but CONCACAF, particularly the bottom and middle tier, is significantly better than where it has been.
00:06:29
Speaker
Now, this is kind of cherry-picking a little bit, but in this Gold Cup group stage, there were only four results of three-plus goals, right? Results that were decided by three or more goals, and only two of them of more than three.
00:06:41
Speaker
And one of those was in a game between Canada and Honduras, where Honduras ended up making up the quarterfinals anyway. You compare that to 2019, which was the first year that the Gold Cup had 16 teams, there were seven results of three or more goals in that group stage.
00:06:54
Speaker
So that is one data point that CONCACAF is getting better. We saw it in World Cup qualifying that the lower tier teams are able to contend more with the higher tier teams. And admit everybody but Guadalupe left the Gold Cup group stage with at least a point. And Guadalupe did some things at points in this Gold Cup.
00:07:08
Speaker
This will probably also be seen in the World Cup come September. But this is the result of a lot of work over a long period of time from CONCACAF. That didn't just happen. This is the result of CONCACAF Nations League becoming a thing, making it so that teams have to continue to play, right? There was a time period in CONCACAF where teams would play World Cup qualifiers, they'd be eliminated from World Cup qualifiers, and they wouldn't play until they would show up to World Cup qualifiers again.
00:07:34
Speaker
That's not the case anymore, and I think we're seeing the results of that. 100%, I think you outlined it really well. And just adding on that forcing them to play has forced the national teams to take their player pool development much more seriously.
00:07:49
Speaker
And so for some of those lower tiers, they're doing a lot of really good hard work and eligibility player finding for guys that can play. And then for some other teams, I think we've just seen the the Domestic leagues have improved.
00:08:06
Speaker
The pipelines have improved. And some of that is due to the top-down spending, I'm putting in air quotes, from MLS and, to an extent, Liga MX and even those other smaller leagues in Central America.
00:08:20
Speaker
They've all gotten better, I think, um in the past four to eight years. And now we're seeing at this level, because they can play against each other and because there's more pipelines for this global soccer but pathway for these guys to get more exposure, right? It's all, it's all just, it's all coming around. And then on top of that as well, there's even just the managerial aspect of it.
00:08:40
Speaker
um These teams are all very well organized in a, in a gold cup situation format like this, where you could tell they've played together before they, they know they have goals. It's, it's a lot different than you kind of just roll out 11 guys that haven't looked like they've played together and they can be made fools of. And that's your point of the scoreline where it shows up.
00:09:00
Speaker
It's hard to w ring someone up unless they really are you really, really open. And all that being said, the favorites are still kind of the favorites, right? And that's something we've also seen throughout CONCACAF. Of the eight teams, the quarterfinals, I think Guatemala over Jamaica is probably the only real surprise.
00:09:18
Speaker
Going into the group stage, Saudi Arabia, and we're going to have to talk about Saudi Arabia in a minute because it just feels weird to be throwing them in into the conversation. But I think going into the group stage, Saudi Arabia and Haiti was was probably a close thought to many. Saudi Arabia ended up coming up on top there, but it's certainly not a
USA's Gold Cup Performance: Key Players and Improvements
00:09:32
Speaker
surprise that they make the quarterfinals.
00:09:34
Speaker
ah But maybe those favorites aren't in the usual order. So we're seeing that gap close a bit, but the gap is still there. I mean, the gap from the top teams and the other teams is is still there.
00:09:44
Speaker
I think what you're seeing is that the bottom is closer to the middle and overall the middle is a little bit higher than what we've kind of experienced in our time with these, you know, again, last four, eight, 12 years.
00:09:56
Speaker
um Yeah. Keep going. So, yeah, I think all that being said, you look at these quarterfinals, the three teams that you would expect to be favored to win the Gold Cup are still the three teams that are favored to win the Gold Cup, but maybe not in the order we've come accustomed to. And that kind of brings up the big question, like, could this be Canada's time?
00:10:18
Speaker
I mean, that's the great question. I think, yes, I think the order, I'm putting USA third behind Mexico and Canada. I feel pretty good about that. We're going to talk about that a little bit.
00:10:28
Speaker
um ah Between Canada and Mexico, I would have a tough time picking a ah favorite. I think that's just, a game I'd like to see. um And again, i think that, you know, the squads are, you know, not, not any of these three are at their fully, fully functioning um best squad. So and Mexico feel a lot more indicative of what we would expect.
00:10:52
Speaker
Like obviously yeah they're pretty, they're pretty close to a team I would see in 2026. And for that, and for that compared to the U.S. squad, feel pretty comfortable that theyre they're better in this tournament than the U.S. Now, we're hopefully, not to jump the the gun here, hopefully going to see USA Canada in a semifinal.
00:11:13
Speaker
And I'd be really interested to see the odds in that one. Would Canada truly be favored? I think they they might be, right? And I'm sure we could look up some tournament futures to to see what the odds makers think.
00:11:25
Speaker
So let's talk about the big three. But before we talk about the big three, I want to ask a kind of key question here. Are we being fair in saying it's a big three? Or do Panama and Costa Rica have a conversation to make it a big four or five?
00:11:40
Speaker
I really like those two teams and I think they're super fun, but no, there, there's a level of but to them, especially I know Costa Rica drew with Mexico on day three, a result we can talk about Mexico essentially kind of won the game. And also both of them were two and O and the onus was on Costa Rica to, to beat Mexico, to try to get ah better draw ah in the, the, the elimination games.
00:12:04
Speaker
And they, they couldn't do that. It's Costa Rica squad. If you look at it, really not a lot of talent above the best players in costa rica panama a little bit better than costa rica but there's there's still just a sizable gap and again we know we've seen panama could beat the united states on fair footing on equal footing but they're they're not as good as them that's they've won doing underdog things and weird voodoo things that happen in those games um
00:12:34
Speaker
and The gap is closer. Like we've said, the gap is closer, but I cannot say it's a big five yet. Also fair to point out that Panama are not at 100%. No, they're missing. Right. Yeah. Very, very big players to what.
00:12:46
Speaker
So interesting that you bring up the future odds thing. i We're not that type of podcast here, but I think it's an interesting conversation point. Mexico plus 150, US plus 200, Canada plus 500 to win the Gold Cup. Those are your top three favorites going into the quarterfinals.
00:13:01
Speaker
I think you and I are and pretty are definitely in agreement that Canada are probably undervalued and the US is probably overvalued in those numbers. Yeah, 100%. I'm surprised that it's not closer. I can understand you want you want to put the USA ahead of Canada, and I think certainly the way the models work is based on past results and overall just team strength.
00:13:25
Speaker
USA clears Canada in that historical consense and home field advantage, but the way they're playing right now and the talent in the U.S. squad right now, that should be a bit closer.
00:13:37
Speaker
Also, home field advantage only counts if people show up. yeah i was I was about to say that. I mean, what is home field advantage? Then it's the Gold Cup. I certainly think there's a and almost an almost anxious, nervousness, apathetic energy to some of these home crowds.
00:13:51
Speaker
Yeah.
Canada's Gold Cup Strategy and Prospects
00:13:52
Speaker
So let's let's talk about the U.S. a bit. We did a whole U.S. podcast for for our Patreon subscribers ahead of this Gold Cup. I don't think any of our big points from that have changed.
00:14:03
Speaker
This has been better for the U.S. certainly than what we saw in those pre-tournament friendlies against Turkey and Switzerland. I don't think you're particularly inspired by what you've seen, but they're doing the minimum.
00:14:14
Speaker
A 5-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago was nice. A grimy, slimy 1-0 win over Saudi Arabia, maybe less so, and generally took care of business against Haiti to to close out the group stage.
00:14:26
Speaker
Like, yeah, again, that's the bare minimum. The bar is ridiculously low for calling that clearing the bar, but at least the U.S. didn't have a complete disaster. Yeah, I like the language and tone you've used to describe it. It's the same way I feel.
00:14:41
Speaker
They've done fine. They certainly haven't like let go of the rope. um I think the issues that you expect with this group of players have plagued them. They struggle for final third quality and finishing.
00:14:54
Speaker
they They have a lot of solid guys that can run and create and press, and they've dominated all these matches. um But they're they're old and slow at some points in defense, not all.
00:15:05
Speaker
And goalkeeping's been an issue. They they really shipped a goal in the last game that they had no business giving up on a horrible back pass. um But if they kind of crank the gears enough, they get something, same thing against Saudi Arabia. Should that really be one-on result against B Saudi Arabia?
00:15:23
Speaker
No. And they couldn't score, but Chris Richards scores a set piece. I'm glad they're getting set piece production out of center backs. Um, that's how you win in international tournaments. sure Um,
00:15:36
Speaker
it's all been fine. It's all been fine. Um, it's, this is the squad they have right now. I kind of would say they've played almost exactly to their level. And,
00:15:47
Speaker
we've seen, i think Malik Tillman has been another standout performer. Yeah. So that was, that was the point that I wanted to make. So I don't think there's a ton that you can collectively, like you're not going to make any overarching conclusions about the United States as a whole.
00:16:00
Speaker
I think if they were to go on and win this tournament, I think that would be a good sign for Mauricio Pochettino going forward. Like that's a good bounce back, but I do think that there are individual points that are probably worth pointing out here. And that certainly can have an impact going forward. So yeah,
00:16:16
Speaker
On your point on Tillman, who are, along with Tillman, some of the individual players that have stood out for you here? I mean, Tillman's the number one, and I think Richards is a two. ah Both of these players could probably be in the fringes of a World Cup squad. Even Richards, if he's starting a World Cup game, I don't think anyone would feel uncomfortable with that.
00:16:39
Speaker
ah he's And again, the set piece ability is really there. Tillman is kind of a tweener 10 and he plays in the Netherlands. And I think he does a lot of like late runner to goal things that the United States needs when you just launch the ball in the box.
00:16:53
Speaker
I think there's been a lot of interesting discussion about the striker position. I'm going to butcher his last name, so I'm not going to say it. Patrick. Aguimeng? Aguimeng? Ah, gosh. please just Please just have mercy on me. I'm sorry.
00:17:07
Speaker
um Anyways, he's not very good at scoring in the box, but he runs very hard. ah Could he be a good change of pace striker? Sure. but And change of pace in like to run, stretch the back line? Sure.
00:17:18
Speaker
mean, let me be honest. that The strikers that are in this squad for the U.S. are not the strikers that are going to be going to the World Cup. And if they are, the U.S. is probably in trouble. Yeah, if he's your third striker, you hope he doesn't play.
00:17:28
Speaker
um And you're just bring him on for a body. um Listen, I'm a union guy. i was happy to see Brendan
Mexico in the Gold Cup: Strengths and World Cup Aspirations
00:17:34
Speaker
Aronson and Quinn Sullivan in the squad. I think Aronson's another fringe guy that does a lot of running hard for the United States.
00:17:40
Speaker
He hasn't shown he's got quite, he has made the leap yet to being effective consistently in the final third, but he still is always in the right spots. He just is. So he's a useful player. Quinn Sullivan, probably not quite there yet. Jack McGlynn, again, another union guy.
00:17:55
Speaker
really good with the ball, doesn't have the work rate defensively to to play in a World Cup match, but if he's, you know, a super sub to bring on, great. The... ah um the
00:18:08
Speaker
ah Those are those are main mainly names. I think defensively, the back line has been unimpressive, um but they haven't been asked to do too much. And that is maybe the most worrying point because while there are guys who aren't here on the back line, you know, you particularly talk about a player like Dest, Anthony Robinson are probably the two that come to mind most.
00:18:30
Speaker
ah There are players that are in this squad on the back line that are probably going to be counted on at the World Cup.
00:18:38
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you you can't escape Zimmerman and Ream, right? At some point, they might find themselves in ah in ah in a big spot. And i don't need I don't want to say too bad about them. They're they're perfectly fine players. we just I think there's a level between what they are and what the U.S. needs. But they're serviceable, so that's okay.
00:18:59
Speaker
And final point that I wanted to make, I think one guy that I maybe had a big expectation for here that maybe hasn't lived up to that and is kind of missing an opportunity is Johnny Cardoso, right? The the the player who came up through Internacional in Brazil is at Atlético Madrid now and Spain has been very good in Spain.
00:19:14
Speaker
I think the level that he's been able to show for clubs hasn't quite translated into country yet. And I think that's a big loss for him. It's a big loss for the U.S. because if he can play to what he has shown that he can play to, he would be a big useful piece here.
00:19:29
Speaker
Agreed. he's ah He's a good player. I think the the way he the U.S. has built up and his kind of playing out of the back has been fine. He had a notable kind of mistake and that but hurt the United States in the opening game.
00:19:44
Speaker
um
00:19:47
Speaker
he Again, if he's in the squad and he plays in a game, it's going to be okay, but it's not great. And i think, he isn't he moving to Atletico Madrid? He could maybe have a...
00:19:58
Speaker
kind of his game is somehow slightly more suited to club he could have you know he could force his way into getting a bigger stage and minutes for this team but I'm with you hasn't quite popped off let's talk Canada a bit Jesse Marsh has this Canadian team cooking they have this like He's threading the needle to do this very weird, like inferiority complex thing. Like everybody's out to get us from our own federation, from the confederation to whatever.
00:20:25
Speaker
There was the whole first game of the Gold Cup group stage ordeal with Honduras where, you know, Barsh was suspended for the game, had a run in with CONCACAF where they told him to go to one place and he went to that place. and Then they told him go to another place. He ended up not... seeing any further punishment for that.
00:20:39
Speaker
But they've been pretty good here. They smoked Honduras 6-0 in that first game at home in Vancouver. That was a really good sign. They were maybe deservedly pegged back late by Curacao in the second group stage match and then had a comfortable 2-0 win over nine-man El Salvador.
00:20:53
Speaker
We said it already a minute. This Canadian team looks closer to what we think Canada will look like at the World Cup than what the U.S. looks like in this Gold Cup. And I think they are impressing so far.
00:21:07
Speaker
Agree. And I think their style and physicality, their ability to run and their motivation to run under Marsh is what helps them. And they've got just really good attackers.
00:21:17
Speaker
I think their defenders are not perfect. And that's why they can, you know, give up a goal trying to see out a one zero lead. That's almost not their strong suit. They just it's not the quite the personnel.
00:21:29
Speaker
um But if you if you let them run into space, their attackers are very lethal, um and they they can do just enough passing, but they kind of just they're kind of relentless. They're kind of relentless the way they run at you. Again, there's not a ton of finesse around their chance creation. but It's more of like slamming the the door with a hammer, but the the strikers are good. There's a bunch of different difference makers in here um that have done really well for them. So I know in 2022, we kind of pegged them as like a dark horse ish team.
00:22:02
Speaker
I think we're going to probably think of them the same way. And I'm not saying I've changed my perception of too much. They're just, they might be a team that can make a run again. The defensive flaws and spine flaws are going to be hard for them to overcome, but they, they play hard. They play a style that's hard to, to beat in these kinds of formats.
00:22:22
Speaker
um And, With Marsh, I think you nailed it. He's he's ah getting that identity persona out of the squad that I think they su that that suits them. And like Marsh has this like, and it's clear he's got a personal vendetta, a I think a fairly understandable personal vendetta and is using that in a positive way, I think of the team in a way that's kind of motivating them.
00:22:44
Speaker
and yeah, they want to be here. And that really helps, right? Like the players that are here are willing to run and are willing to do something. And that I think is maybe where this all will, for lack of better term, fall apart because you get to a World Cup and everybody wants to be there and everybody's going to run at a World Cup. And so you can't,
00:23:01
Speaker
scratch out a difference by relent, like relentlessness doesn't get you as far in a world cup as it maybe does as a, at a gold cup, but the signs are positive here. And the signs are positive when you look back to what they did at Copa America in 2024 last year.
00:23:15
Speaker
So yeah, I think they can feel good about where they are. Agreed. And I think just to illustrate the point, right? ah Nine man El Salvador, right? So they, they, they huff and puff in this game. They can't get a goal.
00:23:28
Speaker
They have a penalty kick. It's saved. when El Salvador's at 10, then they go to nine. And then of course, Jonathan David is wide open in the box and he scores. And from there it's over. But like, they, they, they, they can't quite just like walk into easy, easy, great chances unless the team's at nine guys, but you know, six, so against Honduras is really impressive. So like they're, they're just overall floor is high. The floor is high.
00:23:55
Speaker
And I think this is a perfect opportunity for them to get that trophy that they haven't gotten since they won the gold cup in 2000. They are, I think probably among the most motivated teams to be here. They are among the most, most, most talented teams at the old cup.
00:24:08
Speaker
I think the bracket shakes out nicely. When you look at the best team other than them is probably Mexico. They're on the other side of the bracket, Panama on the other side of the bracket. They have the U S they have the easiest quarterfinal matchup against Guatemala.
00:24:22
Speaker
It's there. It's there for Canada to lift the Gold Cup. Let's see if they can do it. Let's talk about Mexico. mean, they are Mexico in every sense of the word, right? They beat the Dominican Republic 3-2 in their opener, which is this game that just creates this very weird sentiment because you don't know if you should feel good about it because they saw off what could have been a very tricky test from an opposing team.
00:24:43
Speaker
But also they only beat the Dominican Republic three two ah They were two nil winners over what was an equally game surname in game two. They got it done. No, no against Costa Rica in the final game. We talked about that a bit earlier.
00:24:54
Speaker
ah What are your thoughts about where tree are at here? Um, I think they've actually embraced their squad quite well. They have some really good strikers, particularly Raul Jimenez, like has a great pedigree.
00:25:09
Speaker
Um, they don't have great midfielders. is They're a little slow and not like super great at controlling games and their defense is fine, but they've kind of found some guys that can play just at this level. um They, they can't really take a match to these teams. Like they can't, but they're just good at, you know,
00:25:30
Speaker
feeding enough chances into the box that Raul Jimenez pokes one in at some point. Or like Cesar Montez, I've been really impressed with. He's playing in Russia. And I was like, this guy's not really a pure pedigree player. And you you could watch him. He's just like not great with the ball, not super fast, but he's a really good set piece threat. And Mexico set pieces have been lethal.
00:25:53
Speaker
And I think of a team like Columbia, you don't have to be great to win. you have to embrace what works in international football. They've done that.
00:26:04
Speaker
And I think that is the best formula for Mexico. That's what served them well in gold cups. It's what's going to serve them well in a world cup. It's not pretty. And they've just kind of accepted that identity.
00:26:15
Speaker
This squad through the midfield at the fullbacks, even the wingers, it's not quite at the level of the best teams, but they're, they're fighting that they are enjoying home field advantage. You watch their games.
00:26:27
Speaker
ah crowds are great for them. They kind of spur them on. They have not impressed at all. I know you you read the result and the zero zero Costa Rica kind of reflects that. They really haven't impressed at all, but they've done just enough. And I think ugly winning is how it's going to work for them.
00:26:41
Speaker
Yeah, and and you mentioned they have that goal scoring, like they have the the players in attack. It's interesting to see how they're going to deploy those players, right? Friend of the show, John Arnold, with a ah really interesting newsletter today on the law firm of Jimenez and Jimenez, right? Yeah, of both great players.
00:26:59
Speaker
But do they, should they play together? Should they not play together? They've played together with some positive results. And then in this tournament, maybe them being apart is different. That's a big question for Javier Aguirre to answer.
00:27:10
Speaker
Mexico have kind of, I think, dodged a bit of the but negativity that has surrounded the U.S. in the World Cup. Yep. But this is also a massive, massive occasion for Mexico that's coming in a year. Right.
00:27:21
Speaker
And how will they approach that? How will they get to it? Will they be able to respond? Look, it's interesting because a year from now, we're going to sit down and we're going to do all our World Cup group previews. We're to have all our friends on the show. You and I are going to talk.
00:27:34
Speaker
And the question for Mexico and the question for the U.S. is to be the exact same question that it has been last year, and last World Cup, the exact same question that it was eight years ago, right? For the U.S., the question is, can they ah you know go higher than the bell curve and make a World Cup quarterfinal? And for Mexico, it's can they get to The fifth game, which is essentially the exact same question, right? Can they get past the round of 16?
00:27:54
Speaker
And I don't think we're any closer to knowing the answer. And I don't know that you feel particularly confident about that. And I don't know what the gold cup will play into that. But I think all of that is relevant when we sit and think about where Mexico is at.
00:28:07
Speaker
Yeah, I don't think the answer has changed, but I just, I like the way they've approached these games, as you said. And another player just want to mention Edson Alvarez. I know people, you know, know he's in the squad. He's also great on set pieces and he just helps them kind of control the game in the midfield.
00:28:24
Speaker
um But if you want, like why the expectation expectations haven't changed, what they still have issues with, They gave up two, like, not fluky goals to Dominican Republic in the opener. A team that's not even among the best 15 teams in CONCAC, right? like Yeah.
00:28:39
Speaker
There's three that make the World Cup. There's 12 that make the next World Cup. Like, Dominican Republic didn't make the next round of World Cup ball. Yeah. yeah And so I think you answered really well. they've They've got strikers up top. How is a manager going to deploy them?
00:28:52
Speaker
Are they going to be able to beat a team better than them at a World Cup? I think they've found the right formula. We're just going to have to wait and see. And again, i hope we get Mexico, Canada or Mexico, United States in the final.
00:29:06
Speaker
I think we should. And I think it'll just be a really good match because sometimes I feel like the past four to six years, Mexico's kind of felt like down on themselves. They know that like they've kind of not been at the level that they've always been at and almost like the mentality was it feels like they're kind of expected.
00:29:26
Speaker
They're a little worse and not expecting to lose, but like they, they kind of think that they might lose. And I think this team is a hundred percent, um you know, has the belief in toughness that they can win. So whoever they get should be a really, really good game.
00:29:39
Speaker
Is that data point going to change what I think about them in 26? No, but it's just going to show some like good reflection on, I think their improved mental state compared to two, four years ago.
00:29:51
Speaker
And it's interesting, right? If Mexico were to go on and win the Gold Cup here, it'd be back-to-back Gold Cup titles for them, obviously sandwiched around getting grouped at the Copa America in 2024. Make of all of that what
The Rise of Lower-Tier Teams: Jamaica, Suriname, and Curacao
00:30:02
Speaker
you will.
00:30:02
Speaker
right, we will talk a lot about Panama and Costa Rica as it refers to World Cup qualifying going forward. We touched on them a little bit here. Are we in agreement that they're a clear four and a clear five in this kind of eight-team field that that we're now talking about?
00:30:17
Speaker
Yeah, at Costa Rica hanging on to the five. um I wasn't impressed with them. I don't think there's a lot going forward. I think there was kind of a lot of reliance still on Keylor Navas.
00:30:29
Speaker
But I'll tell you what, he's really good. Yeah, but like the dude is like he was out like he was done with the national team. He did the whole retirement thing. And then Miguel Herrera kind of calls him up. He's like, hey, man, like I could still use you here. Like we're also a year from the World Cup. Like you're going still be playing. Why don't you just come? Yeah, but yes, and he's still good.
00:30:47
Speaker
Yeah, I think they're clear five. And because the next question is, who was six? Jamaica? Jamaica has definitely taken a step back, which we kind of haven't really said yet. And didn't make the quarterfinals here to Guatemala.
00:31:00
Speaker
I know you could throw in ah Honduras into this category. Historically, they're also on the downswing. El Salvador, Nicaragua, not there at all. I mean, I'll be honest. I think Suriname, Costa Rica was one of the games of the tournament.
00:31:15
Speaker
yep If you play that game a bunch of times, Suriname could have beaten them. And Curaçao, I think those teams are close to four and five – or, oh sorry, six and seven. to coast They're close to Costa Rica at five than people think. But, yes, they're still fifth. I'm just saying they're hanging on.
00:31:32
Speaker
Yeah, and so – we'll We'll get to Curacao in a minute. Jamaica are definitely worth the conversation here. I think this tournament was a big step back for Jamaica. They finally undered Halgrimson. It kind of felt felt like, all right, Jamaica, you know, the vibes were turning upwards.
00:31:48
Speaker
They got most of the guys that they wanted to get to show up. And then it just kind of fell back apart. And Steve McLaren is back to the old Jamaica situation where it's like,
00:32:01
Speaker
Let's see who shows up, right? Like it all comes down to who is going to actually be able to be on the pitch for Jamaica and like poor Andre Blake, like always shows up, has been there forever. It is like the one guy who comes every single time and it's just, it's always so different.
00:32:17
Speaker
And this tournament I think was a big step back for them beaten by Guatemala in the opener. barely beat Guadalupe in their second game, probably did not deserve all three points from that game.
00:32:27
Speaker
And then were played off the pitch by by Panama on their last game. ah We'll get into this in September, but I'm concerned for Jamaica going into World Cup qualifying. The signs here were not good.
00:32:39
Speaker
Yeah, I don't have anything to add. It was on top, or I will say just on top of all the results, which you read, which reflect what was poorly about them. They just, they don't quite have that identity that was part of their good teams when they looked promising the way they could play against the ball, play long balls, have a striker, hold it up and just be solid and use Blake to build them out.
00:33:02
Speaker
They, Blake is still there, but the there's just no solidity. Yes. They can put 10 guys behind the ball, but it's not doing anything. It's just, they're, they're very soft.
00:33:13
Speaker
They're very soft in defense. um They can't hold the ball. it's bad, right? Those are the kind of the, um you need it you need a foothold in games. They had that. They don't even have that.
00:33:27
Speaker
It's going to difficult for Steve McLaren. Let's see what he can do between now and September. You wanted to touch on Curacao. I think that's that's great it. Uncomfortable, ah tough for Curacao that they didn't make the quarterfinals here because they put together three pretty solid results, right? An ill-null draw with El Salvador to open, a well-earned 1-1 draw with Canada, lost that game against Honduras.
00:33:47
Speaker
The signs in comparison to Jamaica are a lot more positive for Curacao. Dick Advocat.
00:33:54
Speaker
there's They're well organized to to the managing. They have some good talent overall in the squad. Yeah, it's it's hard. I think, honestly, they think they're better than Jamaica. And we're going to see how that looks in World Cup qualifying. It's great because they're going same group and it's a big opportunity for both of them. And we're going to get that comparison sake. But a good tournament here for Curacao. I think the results maybe didn't go their way, but the signs are positive and the project looks good.
00:34:20
Speaker
I feel the exact same way about Suriname. They... I'd be interesting. I was thinking my head, like, between Curacao and Suriname. I think Curacao are a little more solid in a way that projects the World to Cup qualifying. And Curacao have the better draw.
00:34:36
Speaker
Like, I think that's a yeah very, very positive... Like, Suriname are in a group with Guatemala, El Salvador, and Panama. That's going to be difficult. That's tough, yeah. Curacao are in a group with Jamaica, Trinidad, and Tobago, and Bermuda. That's Grimm's opportunity. Yes.
00:34:48
Speaker
I was just impressed with Suriname against Costa Rica and against Mexico. And you could tell in Mexico for 60 minutes, they made every defensive hustle run and then the legs, the legs went.
00:34:59
Speaker
And certainly I think um as much as good things I want to say about them, they don't have the depth as other, as the other teams. That's a, that's a big issue with some of these teams, right? That depth matters in a, in a format.
00:35:10
Speaker
especially in a gold cup where you have the stacked matches, Mexico had a day of rest advantage on them. But the fact that they, you know, 60 minutes kind of went toe to toe with Mexico and kept them from creating great chances.
00:35:22
Speaker
I like that. I agree with you though. that The group is a bit tougher. um Maybe they can, you know, hopefully they're trying to get second in that group and play the string out from there. Right. Yes.
00:35:34
Speaker
And that could be enough to make the World Cup, right? Like, that's the conversation that we'll have when we go into September when you kind of run all that permutation down towards the end of the line. All right, the three quarterfinals we haven't really touched on yet. Honduras, Guatemala, and Saudi Arabia. We'll save the Saudis for last.
00:35:47
Speaker
Good bounce back for Honduras, I guess. Like, getting pumped 6-0 in your first game and still making the quarterfinals is, like, that's objectively good. i also don't feel good about Honduras, like, at any point positively. Like, it just feels...
00:36:02
Speaker
It just feels so old, right? ah Yeah, it's just not a great squad. Like, it's right over a way to, like, it's just... I just don't get good vibes.
00:36:15
Speaker
There's not a lot of difference makers, I think, to get to the next stage. But to your point... it was like great to to get here. Like, I'm like, they should be like, we made the, we made the quarterfinals. We'll try our best, but like, this is the best outcome for them after their first game. Truly. I don't have a lot to add about Honduras.
00:36:35
Speaker
Yeah. And they are like, they're the seventh best team in CONCACAF, right? Like they've pretty consistently been the seventh best team for CONCACAF, save for the, the, the one world cup that they made. I shouted out our friends from the BBC earlier for a line of content that I really, really liked.
00:36:51
Speaker
I also want to, again, shout out good friend of the show, John Arnold, who we will hope to have before the September CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers for maybe the best line that I've read on the Gold Cup in his Getting CONCACAF newsletter. If you're not already subscribing, you should be.
00:37:05
Speaker
He talked about how Honduras has had an issue in goal. They've had issues between Luis Lopez and Drek Menjivar have both had pretty glaring mistakes. Like the goal that Menjivar let in in that Honduras-Curisar game was just bad.
00:37:18
Speaker
ah But Ronaldo Rueta after the match said, I think God and football reward Honduras for the effort, commitment and solidarity with the chance to get the win. To which John Arnold responded, perhaps God will provide another goalkeeper to Los Catrachos as well.
00:37:32
Speaker
And yeah, sure. but Sure. That's what we're looking for in Honduras. um Let's talk about Guatemala amid underdogs in the quarterfinals, but good result to make the quarterfinals for Guatemala.
00:37:43
Speaker
Yeah, 100%. And I do think i think the squad is just a little bit better than Honduras. um I think they have a few guys who are playing in America. And that's not the be-all and end-all. Certainly not to to rag on the domestic guys who are great. But um this is just a little bit further along than Honduras. I mean, it would be really interesting to compare them to the Surinams and Curaçaos of the world.
00:38:08
Speaker
um But Jamaica, right? they're just They were head and shoulder above them. That is a big deal for Guatemala, right? And they beat them. um So I think that's a great sign. I think that's a promising sign. um Can they sneak into a World Cup as one of the last teams in? think this is going to be a good question. We're going to see.
00:38:28
Speaker
And for this, I thought they were just a really solid team um in a way that Jamaica were not. And yeah, Yeah, they've got they've got the experienced manager in Luis Fernando Tena.
00:38:43
Speaker
They've got the two domestic-based guys, Wob and Santos.
Honduras and Guatemala in Gold Cup Quarterfinals
00:38:47
Speaker
Santos, I thought, had a pretty good group stage here. He was the guy who got the goal against Jamaica. Yeah, the signs are good. I also think they're probably going to get run pretty substantially by Canada in a quarterfinal, but I also don't think that's the be-all, end-all for Guatemala.
00:38:59
Speaker
And let's close a minute. Let's... Saudi Arabia, Heffernard just looks very out of place here. This all just feels very weird. It's a thing that we're not going to remember that happened until like 10 years from now. We're doing the the the Gold Cup 2035 show.
00:39:15
Speaker
And you back, it's like, ah do you remember when Saudi Arabia was in the Gold Cup group stage? ah They're probably going to lose to Mexico in the quarterfinals. I don't think they did anything at all very interesting. I don't think that they really did anything interesting.
00:39:27
Speaker
to better themselves ah in terms of October in Asian fifth, fourth. Well, I don't know what round are we on in Asia? Fourth round Asian World Cup qualifying. I think it is. um But they're here.
00:39:40
Speaker
Yeah. I don't even think they want to be is the best way to put it. ah um They didn't bring their best players. ah They're certainly on the field playing soccer.
00:39:52
Speaker
Beyond that, like, actually, I mean, I, you know, i saw the United States game and they were fine. You know, they they're not a good defensive team, but they made the United States work hard and not gave them any chances because they're missing their best players. They really offer glaringly little.
00:40:09
Speaker
ah to going forward. Let's be honest, like Saudi Arabia was not offering a ton going forward anyway. And then like you don't have Al-Muad, you don't have ah Salam Al-Dasarwi, who is probably their best player. He's at the Club World Cup with Al-Nasir.
00:40:23
Speaker
ah You take what little they actually had and it's not a lot. and They were truly, they were lucky to beat Haiti, which was a really good game. And I think one of the better games of the group stage in terms of finding out, you said they were close. I think if you would ask someone maybe a year ago or two or three years ago, Haiti shouldn't even be close to Saudi Arabia. And I think Haiti kind of outplayed them for much of the first half, but didn't score their chances. Saudi Arabia did the other way.
00:40:52
Speaker
They did, they did have a little bit more penalty, right? Like, yeah, these games come down to sometimes. Yeah. So, a little bit lucky for Syracid Arabia. And honestly, I think if they weren't in the quarterfinals, I don't think they'd be too unhappy about it. I think they would have said, let's go home.
00:41:06
Speaker
um But you know what? I think they will give a game effort against Mexico to hold on as long as they can. And at some point, the... the green wave will come crashing down and then they'll be done.
00:41:17
Speaker
But I mean, like, credit to... Lucky, but credit to them, credit to Herb Renard for not getting full egg on their face. Like, they've they've avoided kind of like... No one was caring about them. No one was looking at them. No one was caring about Sonday Remy, the goal club.
00:41:32
Speaker
But they avoided any further scrutiny. It's basically like, no one's going to remember good or bad. They're just going to be like oh yeah, they were there. That's fine. Which is honestly a good thing because... They've had a nightmare four years. So like, good job getting to the quarterfinals.
Saudi Arabia's Gold Cup Participation: Implications for World Cup
00:41:46
Speaker
Yeah. And also just like, this just doesn't feel like it's that useful for them. just don't think Saudi Arabia are getting lot out of this. Well, I think the data point I got was that Haiti were kind of better and that is not a good sign for October.
00:42:01
Speaker
Yeah, but then those matches happen on home soil and they get the... Anyway, um yeah. Thanks for being here, Saudi Arabia. And who knows? Maybe they'll do something against Mexico and then we'll really have to talk about them.
00:42:12
Speaker
All right, Mitt, as we close out here, who are you picking? who Who's taking the Gold Cup home? I think I got to go with Mexico. um I've liked what they've seen. i like i liked what I've seen from Canada and Mexico, but I do think the Mexico home field advantage is good. And I think...
00:42:29
Speaker
Canada has some great strikers, but I think, honestly, Raul Jimenez and Sati Jimenez are the story of the tournament, based on what I've seen. They have the most... quality in terms of ball bounces to me. And if you give me too much space, I'm going to punish you.
00:42:45
Speaker
And certainly Jonathan David could do that. But I think Mexico in Canada in a theoretical game can control more of that game. I think Mexico, United States in that kind of game can control more of that game.
00:42:56
Speaker
And I trust Mexico's experience in this squad versus the experience in the current United States squad. um So that's that's why. you know I don't think it's pretty, but I i think they're the best suited team.
00:43:10
Speaker
um If you told me it was Canada or United States, I wouldn't be surprised either. um Let's see. i think canada or I think Mexico United States would obviously be great theater, regardless of the level of the two teams. That game always delivers fun.
00:43:24
Speaker
It would be really fun. I think the United States would honestly play above their level. sure that but Just because it's it's up you're up for Mexico on home soil, don't want to be embarrassed. But I'm expecting Mexico-Canada, and i think canada or I think Mexico can win It's also right. Like this is not why you picked it, but the game theory pick is obviously Mexico because if you say there are three, if you say there are three teams the tournament and two of them have to play in the semifinal, right?
00:43:49
Speaker
Like you are going to pick the team that has one hard game or the team that has two hard games. I think I'm going to take Canada. I think it's, that I think it's kind of their time. I think of the, the main principal actors of this tournament, I think they are the ones that most want to be there and would get the most from winning it.
00:44:06
Speaker
Um, I like what I saw in the group stage. I think that they won't be scared of the U S in a theoretical quarterfinal semifinal. I should say, I'm not worried at all about their quarterfinal matchup with Guatemala.
00:44:18
Speaker
And I think a final matchup against Mexico would, as you said, be a very good product on paper and would be a very interesting watch. And I think Canada have what it takes to get it done. All right. I think a minute. And I will be back. i don't know Maybe before the gold cup final, maybe after the gold cup final, we'll be back at some point. We will do one more gold cup show.
00:44:36
Speaker
couple other things to have on your radar. ah Asian third round fourth. threat cash There's too many rounds in Asia. The next round of Asian World Cup qualifying will be drawn on July 17th.
00:44:46
Speaker
So be on the lookout for that when that happens. We'll probably have a show ahead of that. But just so that you have that on your calendar so that you're aware of that. All right, that's it for Amit and I today. Again, if you like what you do and want to support us, you can do so on Patreon, patreon.com slash WCAD, $3 a month, and you get access to subscriber-only shows and our World Cup qualification master spreadsheet, which will come in handy when we hit September, October, November as we hit the stretch run towards the U.S., Canada, and Mexico 2026. All right, that's all for us.
00:45:20
Speaker
We'll be back one more time, at least before the Gold Cup is out. See you then.