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WCAD 3-28: And.... Breathe.
106 Plays7 months ago
Austin and Amit recap a wild November window, featuring unmatched craziness in Asia, a separation in South America, and Oceanic defending that left a lot to be desired!
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Transcript
Recap of an Exciting International Window
00:00:01
Speaker
and breathe. Now that was an international window, folks. We told you on last week's preview show that this might be the best international window we've had.
Guest Amit Malak's Perspective
00:00:11
Speaker
And as I welcome in my co-host Amit Malak here on the World Cup after our podcast, Amit, that was the best international window we've had. That was fire.
00:00:19
Speaker
It was great, goals everywhere, lots of action, lots of drama, lots of stakes, it delivered.
Awareness of World Cup Qualifications
00:00:25
Speaker
And that can only happen because we're at this point in the process. um we We've had crazy before, but it was crazy plus stakes, can't beat it. Just think that like...
00:00:36
Speaker
There are people in the world that are oblivious to the fact that World Cup qualification is even going on. And their first experience is going to be like next June when England are playing directional Bosnia and it's like five, days like ah international breaks are the worst. Like you're missing out on all of this good stuff. If you have no idea what's going on, we're trying to preach to the people. We are. We are. But, uh, you know, we can't, we can't make the people watch. But, um, you know, if you're listening, you're, you're the target audience. So we're happy you're here.
Global Football Stories
00:01:06
Speaker
You know, spread the World Cup after dark love. It's it's international football. ah yeah We don't need to do the whole thing. i don't I'm not going to do the whole thing. Sure, sir sorry, sorry. rights you know there's a It's an art of the game. There are there are many parts of of the game of football, the game of soccer. And it's a lovely little corner we have here. Come join us, is ah is it is all I'll say. Yeah.
00:01:29
Speaker
Sure, so we've got a lot to get to on today's show because we had action top to bottom in everywhere, even Oceania. We're gonna go deeper in Oceania than we have yet so far on this show. So today we're gonna look at Asia, we're gonna look at South America, we're gonna look at Oceania. And as we close out kind of this segment, we've got a long break until international football is back, right?
Focus on Asian Qualifiers
00:01:48
Speaker
Nothing until March. This is a very good time to kind of step back and take stock of where we're at. And we're gonna do that on today's show. And I think the best way to do it is,
00:01:57
Speaker
On the preview show we gave you the teams to watch and I think on today's show we should check back in with those teams because I think that's going to get us pretty big coverage of everywhere that we want it to be. And let's start in Asia and let's start with Saudi Arabia. Let's start in Group C and you know what the C is for a minute? Please tell us Austin.
00:02:15
Speaker
The C is for chaos because group C of Asian third round qualifying is absolute chaos. We talked about hevernar. We talked about Saudi Arabia. We talked about their massive, massive match with Australia and admit it played out kind of like we thought it would.
00:02:31
Speaker
It finished as a nil-nil draw on Thursday morning in Australia. It was a grimy little game. There were a couple of chances. Australia were content to control. I think Saudi Arabia were content to let Australia control. They didn't want to come out of their shell. They didn't want to get in a situation where they put that back line in any sort of danger, their own, that being And then at the end, Saudi Arabia, it looked like they snatched it, right? A strike from Suthan Al Ghannam. He had just come off the bench. It trickles through traffic. The center back, Al Bilahi, stepped over the ball, and he was in an offside position. The flag went up immediately. It was called offside. Var held it up. This was a controversial moment. This was a big moment.
Australia vs. Bahrain Match Analysis
00:03:08
Speaker
We don't like to do the ref show, but we kind of have to do it here. Where do we stand on this? This was a weird little play.
00:03:17
Speaker
Yeah. Offside, sure, I don't know. um i'm I'm fine with the call. I don't think that necessarily like was a bad call. and we we're doing How are the lines we're drawing here? Yeah, it's like he's in an offside position, but he doesn't touch the ball. But he's also pretty clearly in between the goalkeeper and the ball. It's waved off. It's probably a fair result. like I don't think anybody necessarily deserves to win this match. And again,
00:03:45
Speaker
My general rule is I'm fine with sticking with the call in the field. The line's been raised as flag. Let's stick with it. That's fine. So it was a nil, nil result in this game. And admit, we had kind of talked that this was a possibility. that These two teams could draw this first game between themselves. Then they would go on and they would go their separate ways and they'd circle back around. And on match day 10, they'd beat for all the marbles.
00:04:05
Speaker
That is not what these two teams did because they went and they took that point and they just went and got bonkers on Tuesday. Let's start with Australia who drew 2-2 with Bahrain the second time that Australia dropped points against Bahrain in this qualification cycle. And this match, Amit, was wild because Australia scored within a minute and it looked like they had just absolutely spoiled Bahrain's plans. Bahrain wanted to to grime, they wanted to muck, they wanted to keep this niil nil-nil.
00:04:32
Speaker
just like they did the first time these two teams played. And in the first 60 seconds, their center back plays through the Australian striker, Kousidi Yangi, who pounces on it and scores, not the start Bahrain were looking for. No. and It just got worse, but not worse, weirder from there. I mean, they did kind of nothing for 60, 70 minutes. And then this really turned into, I think, one of the dumbest games I've ever seen. I don't know how else, I mean, yeah go ahead and describe the goals. Like this really just made no sense from the start through the end. i There's nothing to really say that like is rational about how any of this happened.
00:05:09
Speaker
Yeah, so Bahrain pretty much do nothing. They don't look like they're doing anything. They're in this situation where it's like, we really thought this game was still going to be 0-0. Now we're down one. What do we do? And just out of nowhere, Australia are kind of playing it around in the midfield. They're playing out the back. And the ball just kind of settles for Ahmadiyya Abdul Jabbar of Bahrain. And he's just like, I'm 50 yards from goal.
00:05:30
Speaker
I'm just gonna first time this and he just puts it in the back of the net first time the Australian goalkeeper Matthew Ryan is like I'm in ball-playing position here I'm not here to save any shots from this distance that makes it 1-1 and then immediately after that Bahrain consolidate it and make it 2-0 because a weird cross gets like own goal headed off the post and Abdul Jabbar is right there to pounce and makes it 2-1 And then, of course, that wasn't it for the stupidity because at the end of the match, Bahrain give it back to Australia because Cassini Yangi, the man who scored 40 seconds into the match, then scores in a 95th minute, they share the spoils. It's a draw. i I guess, theoretically, this is a fair result, but you were absolutely right. This was just so stupid. Yeah, all four of the goals were werere dumb. Yes. I mean, like the tying goal from Bahrain was really like a 40-yard, just no business shooting from there.
00:06:21
Speaker
the the second goal from Bahrain, the second goal from Australia, were both just like comical bounces in the box, where just like the guy just ends up being wide open in front of the net for nothing, no reason in particular, other than he's in the right place at the right time. Yeah, I don't like I don't really know what to say here. I mean, Australia, we're both, I don't know, we're extremely lucky in this game to get a point and also extremely unlucky to not have three given the game state for the majority of the game. But you you can't really just say it anyone deserved anything. I think that, you know, Bahrain
00:06:59
Speaker
deserved a point for I don't know. Yeah, I mean, like, the superportunistic yeah. I mean, to like, try to make sense of this somehow, and we're going to talk about Indonesia Saudi Arabia in a second, is like, Australia at least like kind of just understand the assignment and they're not going to beat themselves. They they almost did. But like, they didn't really beat themselves. They kind of just got unlucky. And again,
00:07:25
Speaker
Super bailed out by this equalizer here. Yes We're having a even this point this point is big for Australia in a stupid stupid game This point is big for Australia going forward versus Saudi Arabia. So like ah my my My larger point of them is like With the manager with the way they play again, not this is the same Australia team as it was two months ago They're just they're They're just trying a little
Indonesia's Qualifying Journey
00:07:50
Speaker
bit harder. They, they grime to that first result and they got this miraculous point. And at the end of the day, it's stupid bounces, but like they didn't capitulate completely. I guess they, I don't know. This game defies logic.
00:08:05
Speaker
oh A critical point on Australia is also to point out that they're the only team that's taken anything off Japan and that is super valuable in this group because Japan are are running away with it. Let's circle back to Australia in a second. Let's recap everything else in the group and then let's circle back and and we'll look at the big picture. You mentioned it. Indonesia, two nil winners over Saudi Arabia. so Saudi Arabia took that point from Australia. They went to Jakarta and it was hot.
00:08:26
Speaker
It was humid. It was muggy. And this was the result that Indonesia had deserved because they have been playing really good this entire group stage. They hadn't really gotten anything. They had gotten pegged back late. They had gotten some good points. They hadn't had a win yet and they finally got it here. They had gotten smashed by Japan to open the window. But Marcelino Ferdinand is the name to remember for Indonesia here.
00:08:47
Speaker
absolute curler for the first goal, and then he just sticks with it for the second. This was that Saudi Arabia defense on display, right? They let Indonesia pass their way through them, and Indonesia have shown in this qualification cycle, they can play good stuff, and when the opposing defense gives them space and commits errors, they can take advantage, and that's what they did in this match, and they walked away with three points because of it.
00:09:10
Speaker
100%. I think from last cycle to this cycle, I think you'd be hard pressed to find a team more improved overall than Indonesia. I saw a piece on someone who talked about their scouting overhaul, which has basically allowed them to bring in a bunch of players. so you know Part of that is everything in the footballing ecosystem there, but then specifically they've brought in better players. They've Where they aided by the conditions, I think that's a huge part of this game. It was really miserable and a lot of this game was just like a track meet in like the most humid, miserable, like it looked wet. but You know how humid it was? It was so humid that Hevernard was sweating. Like this even dude who was like perfectly manicured goes to 120 degrees in jettison's like, yeah, I'm fine.
00:09:55
Speaker
He was sweating, that's how humid it was. yeah And Indonesia took advantage of it, and Saudi Arabia just didn't have ideas here, right? I think all the sorry was a huge miss this window, we talked about it in the preview. He's the kind of difference maker that they had, and they just sent in aimless cross after aimless cross, and Indonesia are competent enough that that's not how you beat them. Yeah, they're really organized, and they were very well conditioned to play at home.
00:10:21
Speaker
And just whenever they got the ball constantly running, even if it was two on two, one on two, we're just going to sprint in this really miserable heat, little slow grass. And we know Saudi Arabia are leaky defending. 100% are they fortunate they scored first on a really great shot from semi-distance inside the box. But like yeah, but like that's how this works. And they honestly.
00:10:49
Speaker
talk about Saudi Arabia missing Aldesari had them had more quality on the final third. Second goal, but you know, kind of lucky bounces, but like whatever, like they're up one, they've earn they just kept, they they kept running out of Saudi Arabia. So everybody didn't have the legs. um I know it's hard to do an Australia Indonesia road trip. I know the conditions were brutal.
00:11:09
Speaker
But um I mean, this is just a this is one of the biggest stories of the entire cycle because you look at the standings. Indonesia is a third and you want to talk about who's, you know, who's who's going to be in the next round if they're in third. Maybe they can get the second. But if they're in third, like.
00:11:29
Speaker
it's it's It's not a cakewalk. It's still a long shot, but there's increasing possibility here that you're looking at a potential last team in the World Cup. It's it's early to say that, but alpha one result.
Saudi Arabia's Struggles in Group C
00:11:43
Speaker
But Saudi Arabia ah But it's not one result, right? like this No, they've they've earned it. But they've been good. they They got smashed by Japan, but everybody's been smashed by Japan. But other than that, they've been in every game. They've been doing things. So we talked about disappointing results for Saudi Arabia. We talked about disappointing results for Australia. We talked about Indonesia. We talked about a big result for Bahrain. um You know whose music that is of it that you hear?
00:12:05
Speaker
It's China. China is still in this because on the first match day here an absolutely terrible nil-nil game between Bahrain and China got lit up in the last five minutes and a tight offside call ruled out what would have been a one-nil winner for Bahrain and then bad defending from Bahrain let China score with two minutes left to go in this game. Jiang Yuning got in behind, finished. China scooped up three points and then they got smashed by Japan but look at this.
00:12:32
Speaker
This group of men is insane. Absolutely insane. So Japan are going to win. Japan are on 16 points. They are one win away from punching their ticket. They play Bahrain at home to open up the March window. That's as good a time as it is to just win that match. They're done. They're at the World Cup. Well-deserving.
00:12:46
Speaker
The rest of this group is complete and utter chaos. Australia are in second on seven points. Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and China. Those are the other four teams the group all have six points. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia minus three gold differential, Bahrain minus five gold differential, China minus 10 gold differential. I have absolutely no idea how this group is gonna finish. You could literally talk me into just about any combination of teams from two to five. I still think I back Australia, but they're running out of time to make their quality count.
00:13:17
Speaker
Yeah, agreed. I think the the home point against Saudi Arabia like shows that like they're not really that much better than any of the other teams in this group. But they in ah in a group full of chaos, they're the most likely to just get an expected result and not mess around. I mean, yeah, I'm with you. This is completely wide open, complete mess. Anything could happen. I mean, yeah, I think a team like Indonesia has to be like,
00:13:47
Speaker
thinking they've hit they've hit the lottery, that they've gotten such an open group here. um They could even talk fit talk themselves into finishing in second. So could Bahrain. I mean, if you're still like power ranking the teams, like it's probably what we think is Australia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Indonesia, China. I mean, you could put Indonesia below China, but like they've been more impressive so far, especially in goal difference.
00:14:14
Speaker
i But the the how what's the sample size left here? It's four games. It's four games, right? It's margin. Like we're we're running out of time for the quality to make a difference that this is just going to come down to the sample. I think we're in. I think we're in for a truly chaotic, chaotic finish. It's going to be who wants the three points more. I mean, and that's to Australia's point where.
00:14:35
Speaker
that point they have now is massive, but you can't be playing for ones anymore. So a lot of big, you know, a lot, they're all playing, they're all going to play each other. This is, this is going to be fascinating. I, I don't know. Who do you want to, who do you want to back? i I don't want to get like bought in on the Indonesia hype train because that was to me a home field advantage performance. I'm not sure that carries, but um um'm I'm certainly not enamored with Saudi Arabia at all, but maybe that's because they play two games on the road, like,
00:15:04
Speaker
Yeah, and it's I have no idea what's going to happen. I think it's interesting. China are the only team that don't have to play Japan. like like They they've got their two Japan games out of the way. What are they what do Japan do after they've qualified? like There's so many different variables that come into this. so I would expect Japan to go out and try and beat Bahrain, but then they've still got three more games to play. They're good, but are they good
Qatar's Rollercoaster Performances
00:15:24
Speaker
enough to coast to wins? Probably in some cases, maybe not. In others, it's fascinating. This this is going to be a group that I fully expect to go down to the last match day and I think we're going to have a ton of drama and there's going to be opportunities for teams to pounce and and I'm certainly looking forward to it. It has been not what we expected and and and we're better off for it. Another Asian team that we had talked about, Amit, is Qatar. I talk about teams that we can't understand. Well, we can't understand, but we can't make sense of. Qatar get a massive, massive 3-2 home win over Uzbekistan to start out this window.
00:15:56
Speaker
Absolutely ridiculous match. Shoradov goes off, injured early for Uzbekistan. We said Qatar have quality in Afif and Ali, and those two guys showed their quality in the first half. They connected twice, Qatar deserving of a 2-0 lead. It was Afif set piece delivery, Ali finished, Afif doing things on the wing, Ali finished. That's the best recipe Qatar have in attack.
00:16:17
Speaker
But then the recipe that they have in defense is that no lead is safe and they got pounced on by Uzbekistan with Absobek Fazulayev scoring twice for Uzbekistan in the second half. Just ghosting past an oblivious fullback to make it 2-1, which is like a Qatar special. Those fullbacks just love to like not know where they're at and then have guys blast by them for goals. And then he's just unmarked for a free header to to make it 2-2.
00:16:42
Speaker
And then this game got weirder at 2-2 because six minutes are given. I was watching this game actually here in the office in Argentina a bit and and i was I was spreading the gospel, right, of of international football. and And a comment was made, oh, we're just going to play until Qatar scores, right? Because we'd gotten past the 96 and we were in 100 and 101.
00:17:01
Speaker
And that's exactly what happened. We played in until Qatar scored. Long freaking kiss headed down. Lucas Mendes, one of those full backs with just an absolutely insane finish. He left foots it and goes off the near post and in. I don't understand the physics of that. So it's a huge three points for Qatar. I'll let you react on just this match because it was right up there with the craziness that we saw all window.
00:17:23
Speaker
Yeah, this this match on its own is one of the the best matches of of all of World Cup qualifying so far in terms of stakes, drama, stupidity. I mean, yeah, i Qatar deserved, I think,
00:17:36
Speaker
to blow this, you can't be up to and just give up goals. Uzbekistan's missing their best striker yeah and give up goals. Again, what was Uzbekistan's strategy or just just lump crosses in the box. And we're talking about, you know, even Indonesia are too good to do that against. And it's what you said. Qatar just don't mark. They did this didn't mark at any point. They left the full backs, the center backs. They just left guys over the box. It wasn't like Uzbekistan was back saying with also like flooding numbers into the box.
00:18:04
Speaker
No, it's one guy. It's just one guy. It's the same guy. Yeah. So Katara fully deserved to blow this 2-2 and then bailed out by, you know, special interests at home getting in the 12 minute, 12 minute stoppage time. Maybe there was a lot of things in stoppage to slow it down, but 12 minutes is It's outrageous. It's ridiculous. I mean, whatever you want to say, it's it's obscene. That being said, though, it wasn't like they played until Qatar scored. I mean, they did. But like this still was a stupid goal, too. As you said, I know divide physics. I mean, I know. I if you ask Lucas Mendez to just stand there and you just roll the ball out to him like that a hundred times, he can't repeat what he did because it's like when the ball comes off your left foot like that, it shouldn't hit the post and then go in like that. It just doesn't physically work. And somehow it did, because, I don't know, home balances, guitar. He kicked a two-seam lefty fastball off the post, if you're trying to visualize the spin on this thing. It had no business behaving. The ball didn't behave like that. I mean, I don't know. I mean, you want to put the ball didn't behave like that, and it's ridiculous. We've got to this moment. I won't say it. No, no, no. This was just a stupid game. I don't know what to say. Guitar had no business winning this, but they did.
00:19:25
Speaker
Yeah, so this happens on Thursday and so the narrative is alright Qatar are back in this Uzbekistan are reeling Qatar have saved their campaign This is gonna be a good little finish So let's start with Uzbekistan. They then go to face North Korea and Laos, which is just like the epitome of weird international football. It's North Korea, it's Laos, there's nobody there, but every so often the camera cuts to like 25 North Korean fans in air quotes in the stands. It's just it's just weird vibes. And Uzbekistan just got the job done, right? Fazilayev, again, scored. He hit a deflective shot right before halftime that went in 1-0. North Korea got a late penalty, but it was saved. North Korea had been really bad taking penalties. So far, I don't know. There's there's probably something there. Three big points for Uzbekistan. They don't ask how you beat North Korea in Laos. They just ask you if you did ask Qatar because they didn't. So three big points for Uzbekistan. They're back in the race. Yeah, it it can't be understated how hard this is. Just to go to Laos to get a result of North Korea playing the weirdest, ugliest game. And the other thing is Uzbekistan
00:20:32
Speaker
They're not Japan. Like no one, no one's getting there and getting an easy result. There's no, uh, there's no playbook for you to get this result. You just have to like do. Well, look what, ah look what happened to a run Iran. Iran with three nil up on North Korea and then just let North Korea back in the match to make it three two. There was a weird, red car weird things happen playing North Korea in Laos. So three points, massive, massive three points. And to you know, save the penalty kick is extremely fortunate, but you need that.
00:21:00
Speaker
Yep. And so then Katar from their big high of their 3-2 win, this is one of the unbelievable results. They get beat 5-0 by the UAE Fabio Lima hat trick. This was just all of Katar's badness rolled into one match. I mean, this is one of the most shocking results of of all of Asian qualifying. I mean,
00:21:24
Speaker
Indonesia 2, Saudi Arabia 0 is up there, but 5-0 UAE. Give my UAE beat them 3-1 earlier in this cycle. And we yeah kind of said to each other, how did this happen? It made no sense. It really didn't make any sense. And then you get 5-0. And then you start thinking about like,
00:21:41
Speaker
this doesn't make any sense. And then it just comes down to Qatar are an unserious defending outfit. They've like, I mean that like great star players, good with the ball. yeah yeah They have been a team that in the calendar year, 2024 won an Asian Cup. They're, they're at times good enough to be the best team in Asia.
00:22:07
Speaker
unserious defending outfit and I think UAE just like I don't know if it's a specifically them thing they really dialed into the scouting report but they understand that you can just kind of walk into good shooting positions against guitar and if you have a player that's kind of hot finishing, yeah on like feeling his shots from distance, which again, you know from an underlying stats thing is like maybe not so repeatable. But if you if you know where you're going to get those shots, you score them. theyre you know theyre They just don't they don't try to take things away from you. You can walk over them. And especially especially is really indicting of a guitar. Just let it spiral. they're they're mental the The mentals are so tough for this team.
Iran's Dramatic Victories
00:22:52
Speaker
Yeah. i
00:22:54
Speaker
And it's just this was such a big hit we talked about it. We mentioned this exact scenario on the preview podcast. It was like they got to get something from Uzbekistan, but then they have to consolidate it against the UAE. And they just did not. And they did this as far as they could. And this is a good little six point window for the UAE who had who had beaten Kyrgyzstan earlier on.
00:23:13
Speaker
And so this group is, let's talk quickly about Iran. We don't have a ton of time to to break down everything that happened with Iran because it's deserving of its own podcast, because they got a pair of 3-2 results that just made no sense. I talked to the North Korea one earlier. They blew a 2-0 lead against Kyrgyzstan and then Sartor Osmond scored a header to make it 3-2.
00:23:30
Speaker
Like, when weird things happen, good teams just kind of overcome it and get it done anyway. And that's what Iran showed in this window. So this group, Ahmed, is finally poised as well. I think Iran are looking good. They'll probably have to wait until June to to actually punch their ticket. But they're on 16 points topping the group. Uzbekistan staying steady in second on 13. UAE are in third on 10. Qatar are in fourth on 7. Kyrgyzstan and North Korea have three and two points respectively.
00:23:55
Speaker
Uzbekistan have to so hold serve. It comes down to that now, right? For them, there's four games left. They have an advantage. UAE are pushing. They have to play the UAE in June. That's one that's going to be circled because UAE are going to be looking to get the points there. Yeah, I think Uzbekistan have done really, really well. ah Even with it this crazy loss to Qatar, I think 10 times out of 10, if you had told them at the start of the the start of the whole cycle, yeah you're heading into the last four games, you're up three points on third, you know let's finish the job in four games. This is this is exactly how they they've kind of dreamed it up. And again, speaks to the the massive three road points in North Korea. Yeah, they're going to have to finish it. It's not done. You've got to beat UAE. Maybe you thought you were holding off Qatar. Things change in Asian qualifying.
00:24:43
Speaker
yeah but um this is This is one of the stories of all of the World Cup qualifying right here. And they've got they've got to finish it. But they've shown also in a chaotic, I mean, just there's no other words to describe Asian qualifying, really. That's the best one. you know Mental toughness comes through as a squad. And we have watched enough to know which teams we can trust, which teams we can't. yeah like you know I trust Uzbekistan to get this thing over the line in four games.
00:25:13
Speaker
Yeah, so the internet, so Uzbekistan have gotten really close, a lot of different times in the World Cup. You look at the history that they've had, they've had a lot of close calls, and I'm a bit worried that there's a lot of time to think about this, right? March is a long ways away.
00:25:27
Speaker
And they do, is a long ways away. And they still have to play Iran, they still have to play UAE, they still have to play Qatar. They have to get a result against Kyrgyzstan. They gotta get the three points from that game and then you've got yourself the margin of error and and you see what you can do. But Uzbekistan have been good. I think Amit, that Qatar should still make the next round. like I can't imagine, kurt like I understand Qatar have been really bad. I can't imagine Kyrgyzstan or North Korea being significantly better than Qatar over four games. And then Qatar will just have to run it out in the next round and see what happens.
00:25:56
Speaker
Yeah, I think for them, they kind of have have have failed this round. But the good news is they're definitely good I'm with you more than three points. If they were only three points up on one of these teams, I could say, well, they they've got to finish the job. They can kind of stumble backwards into fourth even and be fine into the next round. ye So I think for them, it's they've got to figure out something. And we said this already last window. they Things have spiraled. And we' this is, you know, the the good part about World Cup qualifying is they can totally crash and burn ah for Qatar and still have a decent prospect at ah getting through the next round of qualifying. um There's going to be at least one other pretty good team um in the next round and potentially two.
00:26:48
Speaker
And even the the quote unquote bad teams ah that get in the next round are going to be pretty committed solid teams. yeah And so I think for them, like it's. I mean, what do you want to say about defending in Asia? It can't be that hard. It's ah like it's an ah attention to detail.
00:27:05
Speaker
focus thing. like yeah too many Too many bad teams are fine at defending just by being miserable to play against. you it's You're running out of excuses, right? So like, okay, you failed. You're going to the next round. ah How many games is the next round for?
00:27:23
Speaker
No, it's gonna be I'm pretty sure it's two. I'm not sure I need to check. Yeah, it's like a two. It's a two game till playoff. Yeah, it's it's weird. You just you just gotta to lock in. I mean, we're gonna we're we're we're a few podcasts away from talking about that. But like,
00:27:38
Speaker
Guitar have kind of in a in a good sense like bought themselves six months to just like figure it out Yeah, because it it's not happening. I mean, they're not done. They could six points they could turn but not really like UAE is between them and Uzbekistan like They're they kind of got six months to just get stew in this So yeah, it's it's groups of three and one match against each team at a neutral venue. So it's all going to be punched in there in in one window. It's going to be do or die.
Iraq's Path in Qualifiers
00:28:08
Speaker
Qatar do face North Korea and Kyrgyzstan in the next window. So get six points there. And I don't know, maybe you still have a shot going into into June to to qualify direct here. But look.
00:28:19
Speaker
Asia is the one qualification process that's going to give these big teams of Oligant and Qatar are going to use theirs here. So let's see what happens there. ah The last team we talked about on the preview was Iraq. Let's let's talk a bit about Group B. Neil Neil result between Iraq and Jordan. It's a perfectly fine result. It's a perfectly fair result. I don't know. This match just kind of was there, right? Like nobody really put themselves in front in this match and the point was was a fair result.
00:28:45
Speaker
Yeah, I wanted Iraq to show a little more sure in this match. um I think Jordan are tough to to break down. And I also I think Jordan even ah took it to Iraq in the first half a little bit in this game.
00:28:59
Speaker
um You know, I'm both impressed by Jordan. I thought they matched a level, both disappointed in Iraq. But at the same time, I think given the the table, like Iraq held serve is held serve enough, you know, punt it down the road. they They trying to get into that final kind of window with just their nose in front and then they can play from ahead. It's not it's not going to be pretty here to get second. And so in that sense, the draw didn't kill both teams. Would you want the home team to to win? Sure. But
00:29:30
Speaker
i Jordan Jordan didn't make it easy. It's ah it's a tough. It's a tough cycle. So I yeah and and buy I think the point here is the point that was gotten here. And then what happened on Tuesday, right? In that Iraq went to Oman and won one nil. Oman had a chance to get in the fight. They didn't take advantage of it. And Jordan went to Kuwait and drew one, one. And that's not a super good point for Jordan. So that just widens that gap ever so further for Iraq to where if Jordan slip up again and Iraq can take advantage, they might not even have to worry about that last match.
00:30:02
Speaker
It's a super reductive way to think about World's Cup qualifying. But sometimes you say, we're not going to fight this out with you in this game. yeah We're going to fight it out in the other games. Talk about Australia and Indonesia. um We talk about this in South America. like Sometimes you got to say like, all right, let's we'll settle for for not knowing showing a lot here and show me you can go beat the other smaller teams in Asia. It's really hard. Yeah. And it's not to say that Iraq won't stumble themselves at some point later. But yeah, that's a bad result for Jordan. And that's. You know, Jordan's worse than Iraq and maybe didn't show up in the game they played, but it showed up on Tuesday. So that's how it goes.
00:30:47
Speaker
Yeah, South Korea got four points in this window. Palestine had actually gotten two points off South Korea at this cycle, which is crazy. like Do it against somebody else and and you could maybe get somewhere, guys. ah South Korea, this group is is the one of the three groups that I think is actually going like we thought it would. South Korea are comfortably in first on 14 points. Iraq in second on 11. Jordan in third on nine. Oman lead the race for fourth with six. Kuwait have four. Palestine have three. This is kind of meandering along to where we thought it was going to go at the start.
00:31:18
Speaker
Agreed. I do think... you know, Jordan, Iraq, the team that finishes in third here is going to significantly be ah an underdog. Yeah. and the In the next round. Good point where Qatar and Saudi Arabia are lurking. Even we joke about Indonesia. But like those are the two teams you want to worry about. um I think you you've got to try to get it really, really matters for second
Thrills in South American Qualifiers
00:31:43
Speaker
here. Yeah. where You know, Group C is chaos. And some of those teams Bahrain, Indonesia would be happy to be third and fourth.
00:31:50
Speaker
Um, I think if you're Jordan, you've, this is, you've got a, you know, all hands on deck for the last four. Of course, of course it is, but like, sir, no, yeah it's a, it's a, I think you'd rather take your chances trying to catch a rock in four games than playing two games against, you know, one against Saudi Arabia, Qatar neutral field. And then maybe you're trying to beat UAE and that's not easy. And even Indonesia is you'd be favored, but that's not easy. So, you know, see what they could do in the next four.
00:32:20
Speaker
Yeah, I agree. I think that's ah that's a really good way of looking at it. All right, that is going to close the book on Asia. Let's head to South America. Let's head to Conable. And a nominee for team of the window here is Pardo Guay. I admit, we asked the question whose magic would be better. Is it Gustavo Alfaro? We're allowed to. We'll get to that in a second. But before we even got there, Pardo Guay got themselves three massive home points against none other than Argentina. A second straight come from behind to one home win for Gustavo Alfaro. He's got the magic cook in him. There's no other way to talk about it. There's no other way to put it.
00:32:51
Speaker
i Yeah, it's magic. I mean, this is an all time timely heater. I just like it's been timed so perfectly. yeah They get the big teams where they don't care. They're scoring like wonder goals left and right. What is this? Yeah.
00:33:08
Speaker
if If you could have ever asked for six great matches from Paraguay, it was these six matches. It was this window. It was right when they needed it. And they've come out and they've got it. Argentina took the lead here to El Taro Martinez. Good little play. And then Gustavo Gomez just absolutely murdered the crossbar on a header. The ball bounced all the way out. Paraguay recycle it, send it back in.
00:33:28
Speaker
I guess who? It's Antonio Sinabria. Gustavo Farah's favorite man who just bikes it into the back of the net out of nowhere. Completely unexpectedly, it's 1-1. Set piece header from Omar Alarete made it 2-1. Paraguay see it out, which they are so good at doing. Absolutely huge three points because three points against Argentina is three points that most teams are not going to get in this cycle. It just continued the forward momentum for them. And when you couple it with what they did in the second match, this is exactly what Paraguay ordered. Exactly what they needed.
00:33:59
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you when you look at the so schedule at the top, at the jump, you see Paraguay home Argentina and you're saying, well, it's in November of 2025. We might have a chance. They might not care ah by then is what you're hoping for. And to go down one zero and then just kind of get you know the miraculous comeback.
00:34:23
Speaker
it's It's just huge. i yeah Is Alfaro good? Is he lucky? is he like just you know he Does he have inate innate understanding in these three months and six games that is like superior to what everyone else is doing? It sure looks that way. Yeah, I don't know. I was like i have said i don't want to say like I'm anti-Alfaro because i respect like I respect the approach. I understand where it's coming from. I think it's the right approach for this team at the right time.
00:34:53
Speaker
But like, they're not good. They're just not. They showed us how not good they are, but they got on a hot run. They've made it count. And now they're in a good spot. Before we move on to to what happened in Alta, are we worried about Argentina? No, right?
00:35:05
Speaker
No, I think they're just kind of going through the motions. Yeah. i think One nil home win against Peru is kind of like, yeah. I think their club seasons are are important for those players and something we talk about all the time. We didn't even mention this at all in Asia, and I don't think it really um ah matter that much. There was one line where you said, for Uzbekistan, that six months is a long time to think about it. And I didn't say it then, but my point was that just like, OK, but most of those players, like they're thinking about it for six months and not their club seasons. right for for these to To circle back that into the relevant point here with Argentina is like, you know these guys just don't care. yeah They don't care. and Specifically, the heartbeat of this team still for another cycle is a little messy. and I think they're happy to have him.
00:35:53
Speaker
And I think this is a core of really experienced players that know they're big game players. ah Specifically, if you go to the heart, like the heartbeat of this team, your DePaul's, your McAllister's, your Romero's.
00:36:10
Speaker
fernandez Yeah. Yeah. And these are guys that, you know, I think kind of all run hot. Yeah. And and cold in parentheses. And I'm not saying that in like a because they're Argentine kind of way. I just think these guys are like have done the job and because they're super successful kind of way. Yeah. They just on a Tuesday or a Thursday against Paraguay like
00:36:34
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, like it's it's the 5% and 10%, right? If Argentina are 5% to 10% less interested in PowerWire, 5% more interested, that matters, and it makes a deal, and it it happened here. um Yeah, I'm with you. I'm not worried about Argentina. like I'd like to see them pick it up at some point, but there's a long way to go until the World Cup, and you don't need to be wasting bullets in November when you're when you're well-unqualified.
00:36:55
Speaker
So let's go to L. Alto, Bolivia 2, Paraguay 2. Bolivia were coming off at a very expected 4-0 loss against Ecuador on Thursday. This was as big of a game as we made it out to be in the preview. Urban Vaca slipped in behind, finished from an angle, gave Bolivia a 1-0 lead. The L. Alto Magic.
00:37:11
Speaker
And Paraguay just approached this game so maturely. I think they watched the film of what Colombia did to Bolivia in El Alto. And they just kind of weathered the storm. They took a couple punches early. They took a couple punches late. And they brought on their good players and they said, all right, we're going to cook because you're kind of tired. And they did. And that's exactly what they did. They took advantage of really poor play from the Bolivian right back, Diego Medina, who was at fault on both of the goals, unfortunately. Gave it away for Paraguay's first goal. that They play some intricate passes. Almerón pounds as it's 1-1.
00:37:40
Speaker
will they actually get a lifeline from there a minute when they get a questionable penalty that was called on the field and then upheld the of our Miguel Tereseros came on and took a really really bad penalty that I got to go for an end is that the Paraguayan goalkeeper was so good that he didn't save it right he tried so hard to get to the corner that the penalty just
00:38:18
Speaker
like they knew, hey, we're an altitude. We can shoot in distance. And they just got nowhere close. And then when it mattered, they did. And NCSO scored and made it 2-2. And Paraguay could have actually won this match. They had just like passed the ball consistently twice down the stretch. But they didn't. And they got one chance. And Bolivia were able to save it for what could actually be a big point. But regardless, it's a huge point for Paraguay. The gap is massive between them and Bolivia. It is a huge drop, two points from Bolivia. This match met was as big as we made it out to be ahead of time and the result I think is as big as we made it out to be for far away Yeah, and you want to say we were like just sitting there ruminating is how far a lucky good lucky good You know, I think you might you could say lucky for the bike Sanabria bike beat our to level it against you to get the win you know to to I I want to say good I'm gonna say to your point which you nailed at the start and
00:39:11
Speaker
This is about as impressive as anyone has come into Bolivia and looked. And again, the Bolivia pen was super soft and they came back and yeah, you know, we took a shot from distance, low XG, but this is how you score in El Alto. And Paraguay just had a really good game plan for how to attack Bolivia.
00:39:31
Speaker
um who are very hard so had to attack Bolivia, yeah what kind of shots to get, who to take them, um and where to deny Bolivia space. ah yeah you take You play this game back a lot of times. You say that for most teams. You play Bolivia in El Alto. You're not liking the numbers of times you're winning. I think you play these two teams, the game we just saw, ah back a bunch of times in El Alto. I think Paraguay are winning more of them than Yeah, Olivia, I'm not going to say it was like massive because it's just it's a little bouncy when these two when when you play games in a lotto. Sure. But this was really, really impressive. um I totally deserved to come back from to one and really ah deserved three, I think, on another day. um Paraguay have have and this was to me a legit Paraguay performance in a way that like
00:40:26
Speaker
They golfed between them and Bolivia. They used it in the right way. Really impressive, really impressive. And yeah, the point is not incredible, but for Paraguay, great in the standings. And Bolivia, the point isn't enough. And that's where it hurts, especially to get that penalty, not to get the three points. That's what they're built to do, right? They're built to get their kind of stroke Fortune yeah fortune and hold on to it and so At the end of the day that that we said we said they need to do Houdini two more times. Well, they Yeah, that's why it's hard to do. Yeah and like at the end of the day like Bolivia's limitations always come to the forefront like they are at their core not very good and you can only paper over that so many times so often and it's just
00:41:19
Speaker
an 18-game cycle, there you you just you have to be Houdini one too many times, and it always seems to come down to that for them. Yeah, and Julio and Siso, like, really good player. yeah Really good elite player. Paraguay doesn't have many of them. um But, you know... Al Miro, he scored the other goal, right? like Yeah, so it's really too two difference makers, and one of them ah was was a true threat. I mean, look, listen, the Bolivia right back, it's caught 40 yards from goal.
00:41:46
Speaker
You know, that's not always going to kill you. But when a player like in CSO is dribbling at your back line, and he's got a lethal right foot, yeah, a mistake like that small is enough to be that big. We also we also didn't mention the Miguel Tercero's second ball on the pitch trying to play it into the path. Like, that's the best defense we can come up with. There's a second ball on the pitch, and we're just going to play it further on. it Come on, guys. yeah but Come on. We can be better than this. Ugh.
00:42:13
Speaker
oh We'll get to this in a second. Bolivia are actually still right in in the playoff spot because as we move to our next team, it's Venezuela Amit. This was another window that went exactly like Venezuela didn't need it to go because they ground out another good home point. They've been very solid at home. They've gotten results against good teams at home.
00:42:31
Speaker
A 1-1 result against Brazil after Rafinha had scored off the post on a free kick right on halftime. Venezuela countered back with Segovia after a good little cutback layoff sequence. A very good result. It's a good way to build the foundation of a window, right? like Good home points against good teams. That's how you build the foundation.
00:42:48
Speaker
But then admit you have to follow that up. And what did Venezuela do? They went to Santiago and against a Chile team who had been atrocious the entire cycle. Who on Friday night in Lima were in desperate need of anything and came out with a nil-nil draw. A game between two teams who absolutely had to have three points finished nil-nil. Venezuela lost 4-2 to Chile and it could have been 5 or 6. What on earth happened?
00:43:15
Speaker
Yeah, I think there's a lot of readings of this game. And I think to be kind of Venezuela, you can say Chile hit a bunch of you know hot finishes, a few from distance. um The goalkeeping, the defending in the box. I mean, we know Venezuela isn't a bad defending team. I think you play these, you play this you take those shots again in another game. I'm not sure they're all going in. But at the same time,
00:43:44
Speaker
Venezuela being up 2-1. They're up twice. They're up 1-0. 1-0 and 2-1. Early in the game you expect better game management from them.
00:43:54
Speaker
and you know i the The Venezuela defender of me wants to say, you know you play well against Brazil, a good point at home. You get unlucky on the road. OK, everything's fine. But we're running out of time for things to be looking at the underlying numbers or performance base. It's a results based. And that's the difference between a team like Alfaro's Paraguay and this Venezuela team. like I still take the attacking talent on this Venezuela team, marginally, and maybe not. but
00:44:27
Speaker
you know I would take them their talent over Chile any day of the week right now still. And it doesn't matter because they were done in by finishing in game state. right like And these are the finer points of international soccer that it's you know you've got to get to the the next level. You've got to deliver in these moments where they've never they never delivered. right So like I still believe in the talent here.
00:44:55
Speaker
But they've slid. They slid and they they they needed answers in October. They needed answers in November. And they've come close. right They set themselves up in this game to be leading twice. They were leading in Paraguay. like This team can get the results it needs. But whether it's bad luck or not, right you play 18 games, you've got to overcome the luck to make something happen.
00:45:18
Speaker
right And you could also say, were they just lucky in that, you know, stretch of the first six to eight games of qualifying when they were, you know, getting the points, right? Like, are you, should I be reevaluating my expectations of this team? Or is it fair to say that they're just kind of not, uh,
00:45:36
Speaker
Finishing the jobs on the margins. It's that it's that it's it's that their away form just hasn't been there, right? They got a very good away point against Brazil and they've done nothing else on the road. They drew against Peru. That's a bad result They lost this one from winning position. They lost from winning position against Parway Like their waveform has just let them down and so their home form has been solid. I think you could have, ideally you would like to turn a couple of those one point home results into three point home results, but their waveform has just let them down and they're you know they're three points away from being right in this and they just haven't been able to get that at any opportunity and that puts them in a difficult spot to qualify outright, but with the opportunity still right in front of them to still make the play off.
00:46:18
Speaker
Yeah, and they've got a... Yeah, so I've said this now for three windows. Sounds like a broken record. Gotta stay the course. yeah I mean, these are a lot of punches. They're taking body blows left and right. Like, how do you think it feels to go to to Chile? A team that, like you said, just played a 0-0 to Peru. Chile have not looked remotely threatening. A whole cycle. Drop four on you.
00:46:44
Speaker
yeah You're just taking body clothes. I mean, it's got the vibes have got to be real bad. And now you want to say it's a long time to think about it. ah Where's the confidence now? Yeah. And and it's it's it's Peru at home in March. That's got to be three points away. and Yeah.
00:47:04
Speaker
yeah Now you're thinking no lead is safe, right? we've Yeah, we've blown in against Paraguayan Chile the two teams in our orbit that we need to be beating We've led twice. Yeah, we've led twice and it's like and it goes back to You know at the end of the day in in the truth of South American ah Soccer is that the solid defense is gonna take you a little bit further than a solid attack because it's it's much more moments based. It's much more individual quality moments based of finishing. And you have to approach it. And like and we don't, neither of us like what Alfaro does, but it's effective. yeah I mean, like a Venezuela can't play that game. They cannot play that game.
00:47:54
Speaker
Yeah, ah that's ah that's a very good that's a very good point. Some other news and notes from South America. I mean, we haven't talked a ton about Ecuador. They've always been like in this middle spot of not good enough for us to care and also not bad enough for us to care. But man, what a great window for Ecuador. Sebastian Becca says it has been playing really, really well. I know Valencia still got it.
00:48:13
Speaker
Henry Uncle Linus was fabulous to to give them a shock 1-0 win over Colombia and Barranquilla. We've mentioned the the big win they got. At some point, we're going to be able to talk about Ecuador, I promise. Because on form, they are on 22 points. If you take away the three-point penalty, they are second best in combo qualifying, well-deserving of it. They've been really good, and this was a massive window. They were kind of lurking around that cut, and now they're not. I think the the from our perspective, as as podcasters are talking about this, like They're just, it's hard to talk about them within the cycle, because they're kind of not in anywhere interesting. And they just kind of do their job. But if you if you think about when we talked about the whole preview for South America, we talked about Copa America. And when we talk about them in World Cup 2026, this is a dangerous team. This is a team that can make a round of 16. If things break right, can make a quarterfinal. We've talked about why. They were, if you go back to even 2022, they were a hipster team in air quotes that could do damage.
00:49:09
Speaker
This is a really good team. I like the manager have has come in and made them, ah you know, gotten the more effective. We said they they kind of needed some bounces. Well, now they've got the bounces in second best form. They're really good. They're really good. And yeah it's kind of floating in the radar. I'm with you. um I'm excited to to see what the draw looks like for them. And really, that's where I'm at. Like, I'm really excited about this team. um But there's not a lot to say right now. And great part about South American soccer is you get a lot of good games against good level teams. um the The tough part is like, well, we can't translate it for you yet. We're just going to have to wait and see for Ecuador. So one of the things that we've talked about a bit with combo qualifying, and one of the questions that always comes from the outside is,
00:49:54
Speaker
with so many teams making the World Cup as Commonwealth qualifying diluted, right? Six teams are going direct, seventh to a playoff. And there's an argument to be made that that's the case, particularly when you look at the table. And then the minute you turn on the TV on Friday night in Uruguay or beating Colombia 3-2 in Montevideo in a game that really doesn't matter, but was still really, really fun. And this is the beauty of what South American soccer is. This game was great. Columbia looked like they were going to win it in the 96th minute. And then Uruguay went down and won it in the 101st minute to win 3-2. This was just fun. and like it does't There's no big like overarching will they make the World Cup takeaway. So it was just a darn good international a football match.
00:50:36
Speaker
It was, and the intensity was there. You saw how much it meant for Marcelo Bielsa for his team to get the win. You saw both teams were just running at each other for the past, the last 10 minutes of the game. They both wanted this result. And I do think, you know, one of the subplots we've talked about all of ah this cycle is who's ah who's a better power or why are Columbia? And they've played really good games. They're really close to each other. ah These are two teams.
00:51:00
Speaker
Again in that boat that are gonna have some dark horse potential for multiple rounds And even just regardless of that to your point like in this context. They both wanted it That's also great game high level players um and I think we're we're we're gonna ask ourselves that question multiple times and Uruguay, Colombia, what do you like? What do you like? And I think Colombia show like they are monstrous when they can play the way they want. Colombia are nine away from being elite, right? They they have to finish it they have the finishing problem. Uruguay, I think, just have a touch more attack and quality. And Colombia, you could say they have a touch more defending solidity, but not so much that they could hold off Uruguay when both teams are running at each other. It's it's really fascinating. Yeah. um
00:51:51
Speaker
Marcello, they also really needed this, right? like just Totally. like Hey, long-term, we're fine. like We can still get results. It was just a bad little patch. We're okay. We're good. That's kind of the story of the South American... qua As I think all of the big teams, maybe Argentina accepted, have gone through like a little bit of a rough patch. like they were they having like This was Colombia's rough patch. they didn't get the They got zero points from this window.
00:52:15
Speaker
But the gap is just so big that as long as a rough patch isn't super long, it's fine. Uruguay drew 1-1 with Brazil. pre Brazil only picked up two points for this window. out That was another fun game that, again, didn't have super huge stakes. So when we look at the table a minute right now, Argentina topped the table on 25, Uruguay 20, Ecuador 19, Colombia 19, Brazil 18, Paraguay 17. Those are your top six, Bolivia in seventh on 13, Venezuela in eighth on 12, Chile in ninth on nine, and Peru in tenth on seven.
00:52:43
Speaker
is our top six done with six to play a minute baggy i think parlour have earned it to be done but you know six point windows happen Yeah, but no, I feel pretty. I tell principle six point window yeah i feel pretty good that ah this is what it is. I mean, i I'd be shocked. So it it boils down to this, right? Are you really trusting? ah Do you really think that any of these six teams can get badly outplayed by Venezuela and or Bolivia over a six game stretch? The answer is no, right?
00:53:18
Speaker
There's probably a ah less than 10, maybe 5% chance that Venezuela specifically could turn five points in six matches over Paraguay. Bolivia cannot, they're not good enough. If the bounces, Bolivia, I mean, remember we've been saying, Paraguay's got all the bounces, Venezuela's got none of the bounces.
00:53:39
Speaker
If the bounce is flipped, there's there's a small scenario. But I'm telling you right now, if I was putting a number on it, it's less than 5%. Yeah. if you want like it's not Venezuela don't play Paraguay. They've already played Paraguay twice. That's a huge missed opportunity. it's just that I just don't think the numbers are there. i just so The wheels have to really fall off for somebody down the stretch, I think, to have a fight for a top pick spot. That being said, we've got to fight for a playoff spot. That much is for sure, because Venezuela and Bolivia are right there. and Is that too late? That's right there too? I mean, I think kind of. I mean, there's still four points out, but like this is Venezuelan Bolivia. If you get hot over the final six matches, you can make some noise here still.
00:54:21
Speaker
Yeah, Chile is definitely alive. Three points in six is one game. So I really am not impressed with Chile, but but timing is everything. yeah And I think what they bought themselves is hope because they were a result away from not having that. So you know Arturo Vidal came back in. I think the vibes are fixed a little bit, right? So like game on.
00:54:45
Speaker
Yeah, game on for Chile. Would either of us back them? No, but there's belief there. And as long as they're fighting, yeah, we've got to see this thing out till the end. yeah Yeah, and like, if you're not backing Chile, that means you're backing Venezuela or Bolivia, and like, you're not feeling great about that either on what we've seen. Like, I understand the argument that Venezuela are the most talented team here. I understand that they've gotten the best positive results so far. I get all of that. But at the end of the day, this is gonna be a six, it's it's it's a six-match race to the end, and and Chile just beat Venezuela at home, and those are three huge points for them. So, let's see what happens on the stretch. I'm a little bit worried that we're not gonna get quite the drop, like,
00:55:21
Speaker
imagine that this qualification cycle was top four to the World Cup, right? Like imagine the drama that that would give us with Argentina being the only team safe, but alas, that's not what we're going to get. So that's what we have for Conable going forward. And also, selfishly, I want Conable to be good because it's my favorite World Cup qualifying.
Oceania's Unique Qualifying Matches
00:55:36
Speaker
But if Conable kind of lets off the gas a little bit down the stretch so that we can focus in on everything else that's happening, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world either. So let's see what happens. Let's close the bit with some oceanic bumper car fun.
00:55:48
Speaker
11 goals on match day two in group A. Almost all of them because of bad defending. New Caledonia, three two winners over the Solomon Islands. Two penalties scored by Joe Athle for New Caledonia. The defending on the goals was just not good. And then another one of the just absolutely bonkers results that was happening while you were sleeping.
00:56:06
Speaker
Bapunogini and Fiji were tied at two after 90 minutes. Bapunogini scored a massive header to take the lead. It looked like they were keeping their World Cup dream alive. It was 3-2. And immediately on the kickoff, they just left the Fijian striker hilariously unmarked in the box. He scores the equalizer. It's 3-3. It's a big result for your boys from Fiji, Amit. Fiji and New Caledonia then drew 1-1 on match day three. That sent them both through to the semifinals. Defending bad drama good.
00:56:36
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you want you got a few minutes. Go check out ah the goals from from Oceania in this window. the The defending is really bad, but it's comical. It's comical how bad it is. there That's the only way you score. You just lump the ball and hope your guy's wide open, and he might be.
00:56:53
Speaker
And how the celebrations are great. It's really nice these players, right? Like you can tell yeah they see the opportunity. ah Not as much drama in the other group as a group beat. New Zealand with massive results against both Vanuatu and Samoa. They scored eight goals in both matches. They top group beat going away with it. That second spot came down to Tahiti and Vanuatu on the last match day like we thought it would. Tahiti 2-0 winners.
00:57:12
Speaker
Ah, Vanuatu with a really bad own goal on the first goal here from Tahiti. It's a near post corner and the defender just doesn't have to jump and and head it because it's not going to be dangerous and then he jumps and heads it and it's dangerous and it's in the back of his own net. Huge saves at 1-1 from the Tahitian goalkeeper, Teave, Kaomotuaitu. I practiced that before and I also took that name so that you didn't have to admit.
00:57:36
Speaker
Helping you out there, looking out for you. And then bad goalkeeping for Vanuatu on the second goal that led to a penalty that Tahiti scored and made it 2-0. So that brings us to the semi-final stage of Oceania, which we will have in March. New Caledonia will face Tahiti. New Zealand will play Fiji. The team who wins of the semi-finals and then there'll be a final. The team who wins Oceania qualifying will go directly to the World Cup. We still expect that to be New Zealand. The runner-up will go to an Intercontinental playoff.
00:58:01
Speaker
We haven't seen anything to change our priors here, right? New Zealand are heavy favorites to make the World Cup and should do so. Yeah. Yeah. Bummer for Fiji to get New Zealand in the semifinals, but this should, this should be pretty straightforward. Um, I think, you know, New Caledonia and Tahiti are both looking at themselves like, well, if we win, we get to an intercontinental playoffs. So that's a, that's a big game. Again, that team probably is not going to have a lick in intercontinental playoffs, but you know, and they they did well to, to, to get into the semifinals. Should be New Zealand.
00:58:32
Speaker
Right, it it should be New Zealand, and the reason why it should be New Zealand is they're simply more talented than other their teams, and they're also fitter than the other teams. And these games have come down to fitness, so ah like at the end of that Tahiti, one of the lots of games, Tahiti were just in better shape, and they got more chances because of it. And so when New Zealand are putting out a team of fully professional players against a team of semi-professional and some professional players, that makes a difference. In over 90 minutes, I think New Zealand will be able to make that count. But one game sample sizes, weird things can happen.
00:58:58
Speaker
and breathe
Preview of Upcoming Qualifiers
00:58:59
Speaker
a bit. That is the end of our November recap. Wow. What a window it was. Let's look ahead to what we have in March. It's going to be packed as well. We're going to get tickets punched because we're going to have a ticket punched in Oceana. And I believe that Japan should punch their ticket as well in March.
00:59:14
Speaker
conal qualifying back asian drama reaches a crescendo oceana wraps up a we'll get the debut of youefa there will be a draw freeway for qualifying on december thirteen do not try and understand that draw i mean just don't it is the most complicated It's because UEFA had this thing where they really want the Nations League to keep going. But they're just they don't have enough windows to play World Cup qualifying. So there's going to be Nations League losers and winners and groups. There's going to be qualifying starting in March and June. It's going to be a complete mess. We'll we'll check back in ah after December 13. And also, CAF qualifying will be back in March. So take a break. Enjoy the holidays. When we come back in March, may it is all on.
00:59:51
Speaker
We got all the almost all of them going. Wow. It gets better and better. 2025 is exciting. and After the holidays, we're going to be a year away from 2026. I know. It's right there. It's coming. It's coming.
Support & Extra Content on Patreon
01:00:04
Speaker
It's going to be good. So as always, we hope that you guys enjoyed the show. If you like what Amit and I do here on The World Cup after our podcast, you can support us via Patreon. Patreon dot.com slash WCAD. $3 a month gets you access to the World Cup qualification spreadsheet.
01:00:17
Speaker
More and more useful by the window because the matches are gonna be common thick and fast Soccer content is gonna tell you that should you should be watching Portugal against the islands of something and you should not be watching Portugal into the islands of something You should go find a better match because there'll be something going on So it gets you access to that it gets you actually to in exclusive subscriber on the shows and it supports us and allows us to Get something back for doing what we do here. So that's all from us.
01:00:41
Speaker
We will chat to you guys soon. I don't know. Maybe we'll check it in December once we get that UEFA draw done and and get some some reaction off of that podcast. Thanks as always for listening, and we will see you guys on the other side.