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Carlton FC AFL Fantasy 2024 team preview | #PODPOD
2.7k Plays1 year ago
The Blues are always a highly fantasy-relevant team and this year is no different! But how do we navigate their awkward, opening round-bye round?
Dos, Statesman, Holmesey, and Harmey chat about how the early bye should factor into your starting squad considerations, before looking at a plethora of Carlton Blues AFL Fantasy options, including Sam Walsh, Zac Williams, Adam Cerra, Sam Docherty, Patrick Cripps, Billy Wilson, Jaxon Binns, and much more!
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Transcript
Introduction to AFL Fantasy Podcast
00:00:16
Speaker
G'day, and welcome to the Pod Pod. It is your boy Dossi here talking all things AFL fantasy and talking all things Carlton on our latest team preview podcast. There's the beautiful song Slato of the Carlton Blues.
00:00:39
Speaker
Let's talk about it now from a fantasy perspective. Let's get
Carlton's 2023 Performance Overview
00:00:43
Speaker
into it. I'm going to be talking about the team numbers first, but I do have with me five time top 100 finisher, the statesman. I have a duo of two time top 10 hat winners in homesy and harmi as well. Joining us. Let's talk some Carlton, the team numbers from 2023.
00:01:02
Speaker
Fifth on the ladder, which was a mighty rise for Michael Voss's lads there. Second for AFL fantasy points.
00:01:11
Speaker
Very relevant in fantasy circles. Number one for rebound 50 rate and number one for intercept marks. So they did a lot of good work in the back line there. Number one for contested marks as well in part to their duo of dominant forwards up front and also a couple of key defenders as well back down back. Second best contested possession differential. So Patty Crips and crew still getting the job done inside.
00:01:38
Speaker
But around average for inside 50 differential, which was their issue there. So they managed to, you know, make the most of their opportunities down forward, but they also gave their opposition plenty of opportunities to score through the middle.
Impact of Carlton's Trade Period
00:01:54
Speaker
But, Holmsey, I wanted to ask, can the Blues survive without Patti Dow? Yes.
00:02:05
Speaker
I've managed to stake him in a two podcast in a row. I didn't play the theme song this time. Go and listen to the Saints one if you want to hear that. Let's look at the trade period, though. They're ins for the Blues. Elijah Hollins came across from Gold Coast. Arazio Fantasia as well, making his way to the Blues. The outs, as I mentioned, Patty Dow heading off this breakout again this year. Zach Fisher.
00:02:31
Speaker
I went to North Melbourne and Ed Kurnow retired, so the brother of retiring there.
Managing Bye-Round Challenges
00:02:37
Speaker
The buy-around state though, this is the biggest talking point, and maybe we can spend a bit of time as a group talking about this one too, but state's been our buy-around expert. You've been giving us advice on each of the buy-arounds for each team. The Blues, they have that opening round, and not only that, they've got their buy in round two before another one in round 14.
00:03:00
Speaker
Yeah, so round two buys is a real challenge to be honest, but look, it's only a real challenge if you're talking premiums. So you only have to have 18 players score. So the lower in mid prices or the rookies, it does not matter. You're gonna get the price rise, you're gonna get the coin and you're gonna have rookies on the bench to hopefully easily give you 24 scoring players.
00:03:27
Speaker
So it shouldn't be too much of a drama except for the real expensive players. It means you end up having a premium that definitely misses two games rather than just the one. They're mid-season buyers around 14, which is actually a really good buy to have. So don't be afraid of potential good rookies, good mid-prices,
00:03:54
Speaker
I'd be cautious with regards to any Primo, but let's face it, I don't think they've got any top-end, most expensive Primo players anyway.
00:04:07
Speaker
Let's talk about some of the popular picks from Carlton, 10 plus percent ownership.
Fantasy Prospects: Zach Williams
00:04:13
Speaker
Zach Williams back in the fantasy mix again. Harmony talk us through Zach Williams as a fantasy prospect for us once again coming off a pretty serious injury.
00:04:27
Speaker
Yeah, isn't it funny? He always seems to float in and out of our teams, but on his day, he's a thumb ping scorer. So it depends on the body. It depends on the role. But everything we're hearing out of Carlton at the moment is that he's training really well.
00:04:45
Speaker
and the body isn't an issue at the moment. So, priced at 49, he had a 30% discount from I think 70, must have been two years ago, but he could potentially be higher than that, you know, if he's on.
00:05:01
Speaker
He's best 22. He's got a big contract. He's got a little bit to prove. So I'm quite interested at this stage on Zach Williams. I guess throughout the course of the preseason, I have been pretty worried that he wasn't in full training and all that sort of thing. But about three weeks ago, since he's hit full training and done all the matches, I think that I'm quite interested. Holmes, he's going to be a big talking point. I think Zach Williams, given that price and given that ownership, your thoughts as well?
00:05:32
Speaker
Yeah, look, Harmee, Harmee has nailed pretty much everything I've thought. And the almost cheap, cheap way that we're seeing it this year is that, you know, in the years gone by with someone coming off an ACL, they potentially would have done all this match team stuff, but then they might not have played a preseason game and potentially then got up for round one and we wouldn't have had a look. But if he's playing round zero, we're going to get that free look at him and we're going to see how he scores and how he how fit he is and how he's looking. So, yeah, Zach Williams, I'm interested and we get a good look at him.
00:06:02
Speaker
Yeah, and that was coming off the back of an Achilles issue the year prior or something, wasn't it? So, yeah, injury after injury, hopefully he gets a good run at it and...
Evaluating Sam Walsh's Fantasy Value
00:06:10
Speaker
It's just that it's just that early by that's the struggle but at his price I suppose it's less of an issue as we've mentioned a couple of times already Sam Walsh 27% ownership. Stado that's pretty high you mentioned they don't have any top end premiums but could you back in a Sam Walsh even though he's got that round to buy.
00:06:33
Speaker
He's a value premium. So his price is well down of what his potential top range is. So that is someone you can actually discuss, but look, I think with him role, looking at opening rounds, give you a bit of an indication of actually what's happening. They've got a lot of midfielders here, but we know he's running power. So he's got the potential.
00:07:00
Speaker
But because of the price point that he actually comes in at, I think he's one that you can just sort of sit there, watch for opening round, watch for round one, and then bring him in round three.
00:07:14
Speaker
One thing I will highlight and just been looking at the matchups a little bit, and as Stato said, having a look at round zero is going to be crucial, but say he comes out round zero, the role is there, and he looks fantastic in score as well. I think that coaches can start Sam Walsh, even though he does have that round to buy.
00:07:32
Speaker
purely off the fact that if they are a team that has only two rookies on field, then potentially they're running with the Jeremy Sharp at M9 who can potentially cover Walsh in round two when they play North at Marble. It's just something I'm looking at, but with a good matchup there, potentially you can get a 75-80 score and maybe you're not giving up too many points with Walsh, given that he might be one of the best value premiums we have this year.
00:07:57
Speaker
astute as always, Holmsey, looking forward to more of your takes on a few more players tonight, today, but we have talk.
Sam Docherty's Role Transition
00:08:05
Speaker
We'll talk about these guys in the rookie segment. We have Billy Wilson, who's 21% owned and Jackson Bin's 10% owned, just probably due to the price there. I know Bin's had a pretty sensational year in the VFL last year, but I want to look at the big dogs, the top three averaging players from last year as well.
00:08:21
Speaker
and a guy that was in many teams last year as a defender though harmi we had sam docketty nine hundred and forty three k hundred five average but he's a mid only now.
00:08:32
Speaker
Yes, I foolishly got tricked into starting with Dr. DMI defense last year and as probably predicted, his value went down. And he had a couple of court games and yeah, dropped in value, everyone picked him up. But he sort of came off the year before, he had like 114 average or something, something really big. And it's because he was sitting on that back flank, a lot of intercept marks, a lot of outlet ball.
00:09:02
Speaker
But it wasn't the case last year. I think they tried to integrate some other players into their back line and he pushed up the ground, playing a little bit on the wing, a bit in the midfield and then a small amount of times in the back line as well.
00:09:18
Speaker
I just think that what he did last year may be the most we'll see from him. I mean, I could be wrong, but yeah, admit only priced at 105, who admit only that doesn't attend many CBAs. So I'm not as keen, be fair to say, Dossie.
00:09:38
Speaker
Interesting one, Sam Docherty to watch, but I think it is just a watch on role and a watch on scoring power in whatever role he kind of is put in. And maybe we do see him become a DPP again, but if Zach Williams is going to be going back into that defensive line and can keep his body right. And if they also roll with the Saad and the next guy that we're going to be talking about, maybe he
00:09:57
Speaker
He's a bit shifted out and they use him more damagingly in that midfield.
Nick Newman and Adam Chera's Potential
00:10:01
Speaker
But talking about the second highest averaging player last year, Stado, the former swan, Nick Newman, 98 average, came home blistering with 121 in his last five. He would have been in a majority, I would dare say, of the top finishing hat winners last year, Nick Newman. So, a massive finish to the year. Can he continue this? As we mentioned, Dokkitti out of the pitcher down back.
00:10:28
Speaker
It's a very high price for someone that's only ever had patches. And good run at the end of last year, there's no doubts about that. Doherty up on the wing, no Williams. So I actually want to see what happens. The only thing that hurts this really infantasy footy for Nick Newman, he's actually proved to be a really good stopper as well.
00:10:49
Speaker
But a couple of the stopping jobs, he has actually scored well too. So look, I'm just not going there. You got the round to buy, but except he was one I missed in the second half of the year.
00:11:05
Speaker
Yeah, well a guy I'm always excited about and made a made a bit of a appearance in my team last year and surprisingly going under the radar when we've got a guy like Walsh, 27% owned, is Adam Chera. Holmesy, the former docker, Eurodocker's man, had a lot of potential there, came across to the blues and started showing those signs in a little bit, little bits of patches last year.
00:11:32
Speaker
But I want to know, do you know who was number one for points per minute for Carlton? Was it Sam Walsh?
00:11:41
Speaker
Busta been Adam chair I'm getting it. Certainly was their homesy so his average of what was it ninety six point six he did in just seventy four percent. Time on ground and just fifty seven percent of CBA so they have a little bit of a patch in the mid in the sort of mid to late season where he started getting boxy be as and he was scoring like a.
00:12:07
Speaker
like a top, top level premium. Do you see him as an option during the season? I don't think coach is going to be keen to risk it early, but could he get that role this year?
Rookie Options: Wilson and Binns
00:12:18
Speaker
I think there's a lot of mouths to feed Doss. You don't forget you still got Patrick Cripps in there. You've got George Hewitt. That's a good score on his day as well. You think Hewitt's in there this year? He does the role. He plays that defensive role. Someone's got to go in there and do it. They all can't hunt the footy. So if he's fit and healthy, I still think there's probably a
00:12:37
Speaker
Probably a roll there for him, Dossi. But yeah, look, I tell you what, if 30% of the comp is going to go Sam Walsh and you want to be in the 0.5% that goes Cherra to start the year, that's very on brand for you. And I'll be in the group chat, quick smart, when he has another hamstring injury in the first quarter and you're just a little bit upset.
00:13:02
Speaker
I was just going to say, I think that Hewitt is in there. I think that at times last year, they preferred Hewitt over Kennedy as that defensive midfielder. And I think that means if they're all fit, that Kennedy is the one to drop away.
00:13:22
Speaker
Like I don't know okay I'll probably sit out this one then I think I'm in the minority I just think they played some of their best footy when neither of them were in there when it was Crips Walsh chair those guys going in there weren't they playing their best footy towards the end of the year and that's when he was back in.
00:13:39
Speaker
I like my story better. You might be right. Carlton fans can let us know. I'm sure they will. Let's talk about the rookie options or rookie priced options for Fantasy footy this year. Now we talked about it. 21% owned Billy Wilson, $201,000 defender mid state-o.
00:14:03
Speaker
Yeah, unless there's injuries, I just don't seem getting a game early. Yes, he's got some talent. Yes, he's worthwhile looking at, but I just don't see it early.
00:14:15
Speaker
Yeah, fair enough, Jackson bins last year was pretty solid in the VFL. I have to get his numbers up, but he was always on the brink. He was always mentioned, you know, in the state league fantasy articles that come out on AFL.com. He was always one that was throwing his hands up. So, that's why I think he's sitting at around 10% ownership at the
Unique Fantasy Potential: Cripps and Curnow
00:14:35
Speaker
moment. Obviously, just check if he gets a game, but
00:14:38
Speaker
We've talked about how that's probably the position they don't need at the moment is midfield if he can slot in somewhere else that would be great but seventeen games last year for jackson beans in the vfl average twenty one kicks eight handles eight marks three tackles and a hundred and sixteen. Fantasy points so that's why we are excited if jackson beans.
00:14:59
Speaker
Does get a gig, and if he does, I'm all about it at 200K for your bench slot at minimum there, so. Barbed risk all over it, does he? Yeah. Still 200K though. Don't mind it. If he does get a gig. Arazio Fantasia is rookie priced, Hami, at $269,000. If he's a regular in the 22 and named round one after opening round, let's suggest he gets a reasonable score in opening round. Could you go there?
00:15:29
Speaker
Now I hope Aratio's not listening because Essendon reject and now Port Adelaide reject and you reckon that he's going to get a gig ahead of some of those small forwards at Carlton. I'd be quite surprised, Aussie.
00:15:46
Speaker
He's a bit bitter. Unbelievable. I'm really hot dots. It's not about the player because we know he's got a shocking injury history. It's just when they play and who they play is really interesting. So if he does well,
00:16:06
Speaker
opening round. They play the first game on Thursday, which gives you effectively a loop option. So you get to have a look at a player who can kick four or five on their day sitting on the bench for your forward line, our weakest line. That's the Thursday night game. Then has the bye, then has a Friday night game against North Melbourne. So
00:16:30
Speaker
for two potential strong loop options if he scores well opening round and some early cash. I'm keen.
00:16:41
Speaker
Okay let's take a look at some of the points of difference for Carlton and I probably suggest most of these guys unless they have an absolute blistering opening round you're probably looking at them a bit later in the season but maybe some of these value names are you guys might be keen on let's have a talk about him. Patrick Cripps first though he's just under 800k, Harmee, 88 average. Can he, is this just what he is now?
00:17:04
Speaker
Well, he did drop 14 points on his average last year, didn't he? So there's possibility that you're going to get a little bit of upside, but that was a Brownlow year too, wasn't it, from memory? So yeah, I don't think there's too much. He's not already somebody I'm chasing. And that early buy puts me off even more. So I'm probably saying no.
Midfield Contenders: Hewitt and Kennedy
00:17:27
Speaker
Yes, Ken get hot, but yeah, that year that we saw him just blistering back in fantasy. I wonder whether given they've sort of upgraded their midfield around him, whether he can return to a ton average, but I'll be interested. I'll be monitoring early season, I think with Patty Cripps. Charlie Curno, Holmsey with the lack of forward options, 87 average last year. Can he rack up a few more marks? Can he just repeat? Is that enough for you, for your forward line?
00:17:54
Speaker
Yeah, I can see why coaches might be considering it, but to be honest, man, I think he's pretty much at his ceiling. He's just won the Coleman and that's an 87 average. So I think you'll be there, thereabouts again, but we're looking for value in our starting squads and I'm not sure there's any on a Charlie, Charlie Kerner.
00:18:12
Speaker
Let's talk about your boy Stado, George Hewitt. We mentioned this duo both before. I would like to compare both. So I think if we assume there is a sort of third spot in that midfield up for grabs or even a three, four punch, could Hewitt or Matt Kennedy, both priced around $74.75, both the similar price of $6.69 and $6.73, could either of them be value if we think that they can grasp a role there. Unlike other podcasters, I can see it.
00:18:45
Speaker
He's talking George Hewitt for listeners. I doubted him a few years ago. I said, I don't see it. Then he popped a big average. So that's the context. Peeps just to drag at home. Look, their price point is not right in the midfield. We've got some primos that are good value and we've got some good rookies.
00:19:05
Speaker
And we've got some potential premiums that are coming down at a low starting price for us. So the answer is no to both. Okay.
Fantasy Viability of Harry Mackay
00:19:19
Speaker
Last couple of names.
00:19:21
Speaker
both in the $600,000 price bracket. Harry Mackay, we saw Kerno go 87. He is more of a possession gatherer, but again, just due to the lack of Ford's harmony. If Harry Mackay, you know, popped a really big score in opening round, could you consider him as an option early in the season? No way. No way I would, mate. Is that their key position forward, who is inaccurate in front of girls? I just couldn't do it.
00:19:49
Speaker
I think I also noted a 13 point injury affected game which did lower the value a bit there but I agree it's still hard to go K forwards even this year when they're probably as the most relevant as they've probably ever been still tough to consider a K forward.
00:20:06
Speaker
I do have mine a little bit on the Tom Lynch from Richmond, though, if he gets back to his best.
Elijah Hollins' Challenges
00:20:10
Speaker
Elijah Hollins, 641,000 bucks, Holmsey, the last player here for Carlton that we'll talk about on the pod. 641K51 average, unfortunately, suspended for two weeks to start the year.
00:20:23
Speaker
Yeah, and I think he's based off his average from the year prior as well, which was a limited sample size from the Gold Coast. So you're not touching it. He's missing the first two games anyway, and he's going to find it pretty hard to break into that 22 initially, maybe even comes in as the sub a few times to get his feet in the water. So you're not looking at it, Elijah Hollins.
Preview of Melbourne's Team
00:20:43
Speaker
I think Carlton, you know, it's going to be the big watch on opening round, how big some of these players can score and whether or not we're going to bite the bullet on a few and, you know, give up that round to score to really get that cash rise. But make sure, you know, obviously check back in. We'll cover all those games in the opening round. We'll make sure we do a good job there. That's going to be probably our biggest podcast of the season. I'd imagine in terms of people wanting to hear what the hell to do. Look forward to that one. But next up.
00:21:13
Speaker
We have our next team preview. It's going to be Melbourne. We'll see you on that one. Make sure you are following us at Pod Pod IFL everywhere. Give us a writing, review all the rest. See you then.