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Tips, tricks, and value picks with 2022 AFL Fantasy Classic runner-up James | #PODPOD
149 Plays2 years ago
Holmesy sits down with the 2022 AFL Fantasy Classic runner-up, James, to discuss the ins and outs of his amazing season, what makes a good starting pick, and plenty more tips and tricks along the way. A proud owner of a number two hat himself, Holmesy asks all the big questions to provide insights into what it takes to be in the mix to win it all in the most competitive fantasy landscape we've ever seen. A great listen for fantasy coaches trying to take their game to the next level!
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Transcript
00:00:02
Speaker
you
Introduction and Guest Overview
00:00:17
Speaker
G'day and welcome back to the Pod Pod. It's ya boi, Dossie. Hope you had a great new year. We are in 2023 and I hope you're really enjoying, hopefully still on holiday season. I know a few have unfortunately gone back to work, but
00:00:33
Speaker
I'm still enjoying the holidays for sure. And to celebrate the holiday season, we have got you another podcast with yet another interview with a man who wouldn't have really done much celebrating over the new year. Not with any beverages, that's for sure. Because this man's on a strict diet for that 12 pack. I'm talking, of course, about HomeZ.
00:00:56
Speaker
So do waters only for Holmes E Zero Shug of course for the any sort of soft drink beverage over the New Year's but the great man has gone beyond the call of pod pod duty this pre-season in bringing us a couple of cracking interviews with some fantasy
00:01:13
Speaker
greats in our community.
Sponsorship and Resources
00:01:15
Speaker
If you heard last week, he caught up with Matt Motrum, the reigning Hilux winner from 2022. And now we're in a new year, but we are going to look back again at the runner up, who a fellow runner up because Kyle himself was the runner up couple of years ago now. So 2021 runner up chatting to 2022 runner up.
00:01:36
Speaker
what an episode we have in store for you. I would like to mention, of course, that this episode is brought to you, as always, by the Keeper League. And it's not just for Keeper League. Check it out at keeperleaguepod.com.au. It's got tons of resources to help you with the AFL fantasy classic team as well. We've got the CBA's there, kicking trends, drafty fantasy analysis, so you can check out all those rookie options.
00:01:59
Speaker
Gee, they've got plenty of stuff there. Scoring trends, weekly projections, you name it, they've got it. Use the code podpod at sign up for any membership and get 20% off. Link in the description below.
Introducing James, AFL Fantasy Success
00:02:12
Speaker
Enjoy this episode with runner up of 2022 James.
00:02:26
Speaker
This is Holmsey here, coach of Holmsey's Heroes, and today I'm joined by another special guest. Today I've got James, coach of Shuckers, runner up in AFL Fantasy Classic 2022. James, how are you going, mate? Yeah, good, Holmsey. I'm going very well. Can't complain. Thanks for having me on. How are you?
00:02:45
Speaker
Yeah, going very well. Last week of school before school holidays and have a little bit of extra time to relax and hang with the family and start to really knuckle down and have a look at fantasy.
James' Fantasy Sports Journey
00:02:57
Speaker
So James, obviously we share something in common. Both of us have that number two hat. We can both say that we've been very, very close to winning that Toyota Hilux, but not quite being able to get it done.
00:03:13
Speaker
Just just give us a bit of a bit of a rundown first. So what's your sort of fantasy history and have you been up sort of high before or was this sort of the first year that it's all come together? What's your sort of fantasy background? Yeah, so we do we're here in the number two club, which is good. Not quite there, but we'll keep going. So I've been playing for a few years, few years now, kind of. Probably eight, seven or eight years and
00:03:42
Speaker
just kind of took it a little bit seriously. Maybe the last two or three never really had a super high rank. Like in, I think the last two years I was around 500 mark, 800 mark in there. So a couple of top thousand finishes, which is respectable. I think in today's fancy climate, it's so competitive. But yeah, this, this season was just out of this world really like a bit, bit of a crazy ride and
00:04:12
Speaker
Yeah to get second is just unbelievable.
00:04:16
Speaker
Yeah, there's so much content out there these days.
Strategies for Early Success
00:04:18
Speaker
There's lots of podcasts. The traders put out all their information. Selby does his thing. So to finish in the top 2000 even with how competitive it is these days is quite a good effort. But to come second, you must have been pretty stoked. Let's roll through your season a little bit because it's kind of talking to Matty last week as well. Your season was incredible. So am I right? You're in the top 100 from round three.
00:04:44
Speaker
I think round three from memory I was 110 and then round four I jumped, had a very good week and jumped to 10th. So I was in the top 20 from round four. I think I dropped to maybe 19 as a worse rank from there. But yeah, started round one, 8,000 then to 800 then to 110 and then yeah, top 10 from there. So it was got serious pretty early considering I'd never really been that high.
00:05:14
Speaker
But yeah, it was good fun. Yeah, it's just, just speaking of Selby about it as well. Like we're traditionally where we start pretty slow and then, you know, we build and we build and we build, we wait for those rookies to come through and for all that value. And if you've done the right thing, then that's when you can really charge late. But to have two coaches like yourself and Matt be up there, you know, from round four. And then I know Matt hit the front from round nine, just shows that you guys kind of found a different way to play it in 2022 and it,
00:05:44
Speaker
you were able to put the points on the board early, but also have the value to then, you know, stay strong and bring it home. So, um, was there any sort of sort of different strategies you went, you know, going about it in, in round one last year, or you just kind of just, you know, pick the best players available and it all kind of came together. What were you sort of thinking with your starting strategy? Yeah.
2022 Strategy Insights
00:06:04
Speaker
So this, well, 2022, um, I, I've listened to a fair bit of content. Like it was, um,
00:06:12
Speaker
You know, it's pretty hard to avoid it these days, as you said. But if you're, you know, an addict like myself, then you just consume it all. And I listened to you go on the podcast a couple of times and just say, set and forget rucks. And I dodged that, not on purpose, because I started Marshall in English in my rucks. But that's, I saw value in them. I didn't think English was gonna go 110 for the first six weeks or whatever he did. But I thought, you know, he could,
00:06:42
Speaker
We've seen that he's had games where he's shown he can play fantasy, and I thought if he could pull it together. It was a bit of a risk, but it definitely paid off. So I kind of wanted to go a little bit different from the start, knowing that to win it, well, not knowing to win it, but you always hear you've got to go different if you want to get really, really high. So that was kind of a bit of a strategy going forward.
00:07:12
Speaker
I also didn't want to go crazy. I thought there was merit in picking two uncommon rocks last year, if that makes sense.
00:07:24
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I suppose it's definitely a strategy when, yeah, I went on the, the traders podcast and was, and was speaking about Gordon Grundy. And then when, when those boys say they're going to do the same thing, you know, that, you know, a large portion of the comp is going to go one way. And if it, if it, you know, it does present the opportunity for you to go another way. And if it, if it comes off, you're already a big step ahead of the competition. I'm not sure I would have gone Rowan Marshall with, um, Ryder around, but
00:07:50
Speaker
I suppose, what, it paved the way for you to go to Proust pretty early. Were you someone that jumped on Proust? Yeah. So that was, I actually had that plan in mind. Like if you remember, Ryder was out with an injury, I think round one and Marshall was solo rock and he actually got from Memorial 108 round one. And I knew Proust was suspended. Like I was going to start Proust all preseason, Proust in English. Grundy and Gorn were actually never in my team for the whole preseason. So, um,
00:08:21
Speaker
I was definitely going with an English, it was just that I wanted to go to Proust, but then I thought, you know, kind of, it was a bit of a set plan, have Marshall for a couple of weeks and then drop down to Proust, because I thought Proust was just going to have, at his price, was probably going to be a must pick. You know, he had a bit of a rollercoaster year himself, but he definitely showed he can score and at that price was great value.
00:08:49
Speaker
That was my plan, marshalled down to Proust after a couple of weeks when Ryder was back. So I didn't think I was holding Marshall all that long. That was the theory. Oh yeah, Proust was great, mate. I had him for one round in total and he averaged me 14. So I love the big fella.
00:09:10
Speaker
Oh, yeah. Fair enough. It's definitely a strategy. I like it. Have you just booked off a bit of a tangent while we are talking about rucks? Have you thought about what you might do for your rucks this year? Or are you just going to wait for some of the podcasts to come out so you can go the opposite of what they're saying? Or what do you thought? No. Any time you hear something, you've got to take it with a grain of salt.
00:09:34
Speaker
It's either going to be correct or it's going to present an opportunity. It doesn't mean you've got to go one way or the other. But in terms of next year, Marshall does look like great value. Not sure what exactly he's priced at, maybe like below 90s. But if he's got a solo gig, you'd think he's going to go three figures.
00:10:04
Speaker
Tommy Campbell could easily get a go, you just don't know what Ross the boss is going to do. So he's definitely one you'd lock in if he does have that time to himself in the rock.
00:10:20
Speaker
Yeah it'll be interesting to see over pre-season. I know Ross has traditionally been a run one ruckman kind of man but he did have Aaron Sandelands who was a generational ruckman so you're not too sure but you are right. If Marshall does look to have that number one ruck roll it's going to be pretty hard to pass up that value knowing that
00:10:38
Speaker
Well he was a big reason why I was able to charge in 2021 and he's been very fantasy relevant in the past so hopefully he is the solo rock and we can lock him away. So in terms of your starting squad, we won't hammer on about it too much but just
Adapting Strategies to Changes
00:10:54
Speaker
give us a little bit of a thought into what you're looking for for players in terms of like your D1, D2, M1, M2, like how are you going about
00:11:03
Speaker
finding those players. Are you looking for the genuine top guys in their line? Are you always looking for value? What are your sort of philosophies there? Yeah, I mean, there's multiple ways, I think, to pick a starting squad. But one thing I try and do, and I hear yourself, I hear Selby, all the guys who have been up top, they say you've got to find value in each player. So that's what I try and do. I do try to pick a player.
00:11:32
Speaker
whatever position, whether it's D1, D6, M1, M3, whatever. I want to make sure that they're under priced and especially in that first half of the year can make you that cash you need to get those rookies off the field and upgrade elsewhere. That's my theory anyway, but you never know.
00:11:57
Speaker
What's done in the past, what's worked in the past doesn't necessarily mean it's going to work in the future. Each year is different. That's something that I've realized as well. So that's what's worked for me this year, but see what happens in next year.
00:12:14
Speaker
Yeah, and that's the crazy thing about fantasy, right? Is that every year is different. When I came second in 2021, I was the only one that started Gorn and Grundy and I had nine rookies on field. And just looking at your starting squad here, I think you had five rookies on field, which was a pretty common structure ran last year in 2022.
00:12:33
Speaker
every season is different which you're dead right so we won't look at your starting squad too much in terms of like looking for value so I use one of those coaches that's quite nervous paying up to begin with so we say that we always look for value but let's just use like a Josh Dunkley for example or a even a
00:12:52
Speaker
Colton, Sam Docherty who's priced at 110 this year, would you be scared off paying up for one of those players at round one knowing they're pretty highly priced or do you think, you know, there could be even a little bit of growth in it, you know, at least a Docherty who didn't have a pre-season at all last year and was still able to do what he did or a Josh Dunkley who's clearly moving to Brisbane for more midfield time and greater opportunity?
00:13:15
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, Docody 110, it's a high number to be priced at, especially for a defender. But we do know that he can average 130 for five weeks in a row. He is one of the most fantasy-friendly games in the AFL. And he's one of the best scorers. We know that. So 110 wouldn't necessarily scare me away.
00:13:44
Speaker
but I would want to make sure, you know, he's, if he's going under that, it's a, you know, you'd want to be 105 around there. Um, and it to be more a bigger gap difference than, you know, like a day two or day three, if that the day two or the day three of the year. Um, so that is, you're making up, even though you're losing points in the price, you're making it up. Um,
00:14:11
Speaker
by not having someone else. I've kind of gone really technical there, but it made sense in my head. I just don't know if I've portrayed it that well. Does that make sense?
00:14:23
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. I suppose you're right. If you genuinely think like a Sam Docherty can come out and go 130 over the first five rounds, which he's more than capable of, then maybe that is someone to lock away early knowing that you're going to get that jump on the competition. However, on the flip side, priced at 110, he would need to go 112 plus.
00:14:44
Speaker
just to not lose any cash with the way that the magic number works. And if you think someone priced in the mid 90s, let's just say like a Tom Stewart type or one of those other players can match him over the first five and you can potentially get him a little bit cheaper, then that's it. It is a value-based trading game as well. So there's definitely things to weigh up.
00:15:05
Speaker
You're right. Like I know for myself last year, just thinking, you know, I'll get Doc when I can, I'll get him when I can. And, and you know, he just didn't
Trading Experiences and Lessons
00:15:12
Speaker
get any cheaper. And it just, the coaches that didn't have him were, were no chance. So yeah, it's, it's definitely a tricky one if you go against someone like that.
00:15:21
Speaker
And that's why I probably won't go against Josh Dunkley. I think he's probably going to be the highest averaging forward by a mile and he does have the ability to go big. So even if he has a 150 game at some point in the first two to three rounds, you're going to be chasing tail to get him. So yeah, that's right. Very interesting. I do like a dunce this year. I think he's at 109, roughly. Is that right, Rosie? Yeah, yeah. Around that 109 mark. Yeah.
00:15:50
Speaker
He's got potential to be a 1.15, highest averaging player in the game. We don't know what his role is going to be at Brisbane yet, but there's a solid chance he's going to be the second man to kneel and just get to roam free and do that 1.15 that we all think he can do, which would mean a fantastic pick.
00:16:14
Speaker
Yep. Yep. You're spot on. Just talk to me a little bit about your mid price of philosophy. So, Selby likes to talk about that 85 mark. If you're getting 85 plus from your mid prices, then they're going to be scoring well enough for you to keep them for a while at least and then sort of trade them around their buy or just after. What are you looking for with your mid prices? Is that 85 mark? Is it 20, 30 points? What are your sort of philosophies? Yeah, I do love a mid price. I'm very prone to one.
00:16:42
Speaker
start of the year, I want to pick someone who's going minimum 20 under, I mean, 20 over their starting price. That's just a number that comes to my head. When I look at someone priced at 68, can I see them doing 88? If they're priced at 57, can I see them doing 77? And because there's always going to be value, you get the trades easing, you get the draft, it's just about finding
00:17:10
Speaker
who's going to give you the most upside. And I think the mid-pricer, 20 is a pretty good place to start. It's pretty realistic to find three or four players that are going to do that. But that's just me. I know Selby loves that 85 mark, which is a pretty good rule too.
00:17:31
Speaker
Yeah, it's everyone does it a little bit differently. Personally, for me, I don't think 20 is enough because like a mid price is there to generate cash. They're not there to be a keeper. But the thing is, if the mid price turns into that keeper, then that's when they're the competition winning picks. Like two years ago when you had Nick Hind and Isaac Cumming both from I think 40 price tags end up putting up. I think Hind was was 85 and Cumming was even I think a little bit more than that. But they had stretches throughout the year where they were going 90 plus.
00:18:01
Speaker
that's what turns into being that competition winning pick because you've essentially got that keeper from a mid price bracket. Whereas if you're just looking for 20 points upside, you're gonna get that from a rookie, like a basement rookie only has to average 42 to match that, right? So. Yeah, that's right.
00:18:18
Speaker
And I'm wrong mid prices definitely have better job security like more often than not that their best twenty two compared to it you know a rookie that might be in and out so they definitely have that element to them but yeah if they're not sort of pushing you know eighty five a sort of a defender or a forward or even like a ninety ninety five as a
00:18:39
Speaker
as a mid-only player, then they're not going to be able to be held long enough to really be valued. And a lot of the time you're going to get more cash gen from a rookie. So once again, two different ways to play it. Some of the mid prices you sort of took a leap at last year. So Lipinski, what were your thoughts with Lipinski? Or la, la, la, la, Lipinski. I mean, round one from memory had a 117, looked very good.
00:19:09
Speaker
bought himself a few more weeks in my team and then you know I think he might have just had a cracking game not sure how many goals he kicked and it might have been two from memory but he he looks like a good pick and he was definitely well under priced what he went so he did you know have some merit in the pick but probably just didn't stack up in the end like would have been much better for me to start at Patty Cripps or
00:19:37
Speaker
someone along those lines who, you know, I just couldn't bring myself to do with his injury history. But yeah, so I'm a bit indifferent on Lapiskey, probably because I got rid of him quite early on. He hasn't burnt me or left me with any scars or anything like that. So, you know, I don't mind it.
00:19:57
Speaker
Yeah, and I suppose the important thing to note here, so I'm just looking at your team. So you started Wayne Miller, Chapman, Lipinski and Taryn Thomas, all picks that you wouldn't say were fantastic, but you've still managed to get out of it and come second. So I suppose the thing is
00:20:15
Speaker
Starting these mid prices, they can potentially win you the comp, but you've got to be prepared to jump off them as well. Otherwise, they can burn you, but you've shown you've just the trading game of getting off them and getting to the right players, which I suppose is good as well.
Trade Timing and Decision Making
00:20:29
Speaker
You're not having to worry about trading out premiums to go down. If you've got mid prices, it's easy just to jump across as long as you don't have injuries and things like that.
00:20:37
Speaker
Yeah, and that's the thing. Like, it's such a tough line at that those first few weeks when, you know, you pick a mid-plyer price up and round one, it doesn't work. Do you think jump off or do you give them another go? And, you know, those those trades cannot be underestimated with how important they are. Like, we know Matty Mottram got off a row very early on, proved to be crucial to him soaring up the ranks. I traded Taran Thomas round one as well. So
00:21:07
Speaker
Even though I've copped that 40 or 50, whatever it was, he hasn't hurt me a whole lot because I've got rid of him so early on. But it does go the other way as well. I know people who traded out cogs, and then the next week he gets that changing role and goes on a tear. So it's such a fine line with, do I hold or do I trade? It's the age-old question, isn't it?
00:21:37
Speaker
Yeah. So that's probably a pretty good segue into our next little bit. So let's talk about some of your some of your best trades and what you're looking for there and how you sort of got to where you were so early and were able to maintain. Yeah. Yeah. So some of the best trades like starting off with a Bray helped help so much like he's just so under priced and went on that great run at the start and in English as well.
00:22:05
Speaker
I think English was probably my most important pick. Even though it wasn't a trade, it was a starting pick who I think might have been like 2% owned when I started with him and just went, he was going like 20 points to 25 points more than gone and started like 250 grand less. Like that's just such a great result in that sense. In terms of probably my best trades
00:22:35
Speaker
bringing in. You know, I jumped on a Dawson, I think in round three quite early on and he wasn't super highly owned either and that was just, yeah, rocket me up. And I got on a docket pretty early on as well, maybe round nine or 10 from memory when, you know, he was owned, but he wasn't super highly owned in that top hundred, which is where I was. So I was looking at things like that as well. Where can I,
00:23:03
Speaker
Even though he's expensive at the time, where could I find value in the players I'm up against and where can I see points of differences there? So those two really stood out and helped me a lot I think.
Successful Risky Trades
00:23:19
Speaker
Did you get on Jack Sinclair at all? Yep, got on Sinclair at the buys as well and probably a couple weeks earlier than a lot, which helped a lot and he was fantastic as well.
00:23:33
Speaker
So even though I'm not picked I didn't nail like a huge amount of the big mid guns pods you would say I found my pods in the forwards and in the in the back line as well like I remember having butters like around four or five and he dropped that 30 if you remember it I think against the west west coast over there and
00:23:56
Speaker
I actually downgraded him to Rosie and that's, I think it saved me like a hundred grand and I thought, my theory was, okay, I can make a hundred grand here and I think Rosie can average the same as Butters. I didn't think he'd outperform him, but I thought he could make and go the same and then give me that hundred grand, which is the trade I wanted to do on the other end as well. So, you know, things like that, that just was a bit ballsy, but it paid off.
00:24:26
Speaker
Yep. So Rosie, correct me if I'm wrong here. So you said you traded in Rosie. Did you then trade him out later on? Because you said you were looking to bring him in in that last round. So when did you trade out Rosie? Because I did the same, unfortunately. I didn't come second, but. Yeah. And I brought him in, I think around five or six and traded him out maybe around 16, I'm going to say. So I held him for a while, but I
00:24:56
Speaker
You know, that was the time you've got all the new DBPs again and so it might have been round 18 that I got rid of him and I was able to go up to like a Bont and a Parker and you know the big names but probably probably ate my own words and Rosie was probably the one to stick with.
00:25:18
Speaker
Yeah, that's fancy though. That's the right move to make. He was never supposed to be that keeper and it wasn't until the very end where, don't get me wrong, he went on a pretty decent run but if you're sitting second or really up in the top 100, the obvious move is to take him up to a bond to a park or a genuine top six.
00:25:37
Speaker
It's definitely the right move. It could have been worse. I think I traded him around 21 when he had that 60 and then they were worried about his knee injury and they were playing late on the Sunday and I thought I just can't risk this. And I think he went on to put up back to back 130s or a 130 and a 140. So I was pretty scarred from that. Someone, were you an early adopter of Darcy Cameron as well? I didn't have Darcy Cameron the whole year. So
00:26:06
Speaker
That was a big mistake. He had those few tons in a row and everyone jumped on. I knew he had the role. I just thought potentially he could slow down and I might be a bit too late, but that was so wrong. He was fantastic. I didn't have him the whole year. That one definitely hurt.
00:26:32
Speaker
So no Darcy Cameron, but you had Proust, you had Rosie. Were there any other mid-price types that you saw that were sort of these competition-winning picks that helped you get up there, or was it more just picking the right Uber premium at the right time that allowed you to stay where you were? Yeah, definitely because I started so well. I felt after that I didn't have to make these mid-price picks after that because I felt like I started with a few.
00:27:02
Speaker
You know, at one point in the year, you probably got to have them. I felt like I nailed a lot of my rookies as well. You know, starting with a Brody, starting with a Nick Martin, a Daikos, those type of guys. So that definitely helped for the cash gen and I was able to upgrade quite early on to the big guys. But I feel like, yeah, once I was up there, it was more about nailing the right primo at the right time, getting in a Miller quite early on.
00:27:31
Speaker
when he was cheap. I think I traded in at Gorn, maybe around five as well. So after people had jumped off and he bought them down in price, I was able to jump on, which was, that was a massive pot as well. So it was more about finding the primo at that under price right point of the year.
00:27:57
Speaker
Yep, I do remember you did have Himmelberg though, right? When did you trade in Himmelberg? Yep, yep, that's right. So Himmelberg was the one at the end of the year that I jumped on. I caught on him after that 160 against the roost. I didn't have him for the 160 the week after I bought him. I think I might have got him at about 75 price that.
00:28:19
Speaker
roughly that, maybe 80, and he went quite solid. He was averaging me 100 maybe for those 6 or 7 weeks that I had him. So he was definitely one that helped me stay up there for sure.
00:28:36
Speaker
Yeah, so rolling through. So talk to me about, you know, the sort of the last rounds coming to that last round. You know, talk us through all the emotions that you're feeling. You know, if you thought you had it, you know, if there's anything you sort of could do differently because, you know, I know what it's like as well to be so close. Admittedly, you were a lot closer than I was in terms of
00:28:58
Speaker
I was, I think, 150 odd points off it in the second or in the last round. And I've come home very strong, but never really thinking like I had it. But you were you were genuinely in the hunt the whole time. So how did those sort of last rounds go for you? Yeah. So I was I was you know, it was pretty not clear, but there was a good feeling that it was going to be me and Matt finishing one or two in maybe like the last four weeks. We had a bit of a gap on the comp.
00:29:26
Speaker
maybe a couple hundred points to third, roughly. And so it felt like, you know, as long as nothing were disastrous, we were going to start off one or two. So, you know, that was a little bit of security for me. Like, but also, you know, you play the game to win the highlights, not to come second. I mean, second is still fantastic, but I'm probably never going to be in that position again. So I was trying to win it, that's for sure.
Final Season Challenges
00:29:56
Speaker
made some pretty outrageous moves. We spoke a little bit towards the end of the year and I was just going through some trades and I remember bringing, I was bringing in, I think it might have been around 19 or 20, I was bringing in Brandon Ellis and he was one person out of the top thousand owned him at the time that I was bringing him in.
00:30:26
Speaker
like no one was even speaking about him or anything and I was bringing him in and then he was in my team in the Saturday afternoon, not sure if you remember, but Cogs was a laid out. So I actually had to reverse that move and got it to Tim Taranto as well who went 70 and Matt had him as well. So it wasn't a point of difference. I decided to match, which wasn't, wasn't fantastic, but, um,
00:30:53
Speaker
Yeah, and then the next week when Ellis came back in, he dropped a 130 and it would have been an absolute genius, genius stroke, but it just didn't plan out that those things like that, you know, you can't do much about it. And I was obviously very blessed that I didn't go through with the Ellis trade because he was delayed out as well. But yeah, like it just,
00:31:21
Speaker
It does take up a lot of your brain towards the end of the time. It was very stressful. I remember in the last week as well, I had Aaron Hall in my team as one of the three or four pods between me and Matt. So originally on the Sunday night, I was probably going to trade out Himmelberg, thinking that he was going to bring him in. And he ended up bringing him in. And I just didn't like the matchup against Freo. And I thought I was going to trade out Himmelberg to Rosie.
00:31:51
Speaker
who went 140 against the crows and I was going to bring in a Patty Cripps as well. And I, yeah, that Aaron Hall being dropped just killed me and yeah, but not, so I ended up not being able to make those trades, which I had all week up until teams, but you know, there's, that's the type of pick and Aaron Hall is when you, when you jump on an Aaron Hall, you know, he's going to get injured.
00:32:20
Speaker
I didn't think he'd get dropped, but that's the way it goes. He's just a bit maybe unlucky in the end. He went 120 or something the week before, didn't he? He was very good the week before.
00:32:35
Speaker
Yeah, you're dead right. He's that all or nothing type pick. You know what you're getting into when you pick an Aaron Hall. It was just very unfortunate that that game was, I think it was the second game of the round. So not only did you have to trade him out, but you had to use your trades, which Matt could then see. So then he had all the cards in front of him to choose what he wanted to do from there. So that was unfortunate. But yeah, where you are.
00:33:01
Speaker
What happened on Sunday when Bailey Smith was getting tagged? So did you, was there a flicker of hope? Did you start to start to believe or were you just done with it by that point you weren't really watching? No, I watched it. That's for sure. I think, you know, it was roughly maybe 120, 130 points up with, he had two players left to go. I had no, no more pods and he had Bailey Smith and Jack Crisp and all week I was thinking,
00:33:29
Speaker
Jack Crisp is probably only going to get a 60, maybe a 70, just he had been in bad patch of form. I was very comfortable with him having Crisp as a pod. I think he got a 72 from memory, so I was pretty happy with that. But the Bailey Smith one, I thought there was probably a 10% chance that they'd tag him. And when I turned on the telly to watch
00:33:57
Speaker
You know, he's being tagged. I'm like, Oh geez, are we on? Cause I was in the back of my head. I was thinking, you know, I don't think Chris is going to score. Well, if, if they can hold Bailey Smith to a sub pass score, I'm a chance. Um, and you know, I always a chance. I think Chris needed a 55 at the end of it to win and just got there. And, um, yeah, but that last quarter when the tag got taken off Bailey Smith, that was a,
00:34:24
Speaker
I was a dagger in the coffin. I thought it could be over then.
00:34:28
Speaker
Yeah, I suppose we had very similar experiences in terms of I needed Jack Crisp to go well, and he didn't. But I got incredibly lucky. I don't know if you remember, but the last game of 2021, so it's Essendon versus Collingwood. And Jay Rantel of all players, I think you played one game for the year. He came in and randomly tagged RC Parrish to a 60, which kept it close. No, I don't remember that.
00:34:56
Speaker
It definitely takes a lot of luck to be up there, but you did all the hard work to get there, so needing that little bit of luck is definitely earned. If you could sum up your season, so obviously you've never done this well before, and now you've experienced what it's
Season Reflection and Future Preparation
00:35:12
Speaker
like to... Well, I've never experienced being up there so early, but you've got into the top 10 very early on, you've managed to hold on and you've gone so close.
00:35:20
Speaker
Give us some of your learnings from the season, you know, you sort of big takeaways and what you look to sort of bring to this season. Yeah, big takeaways is definitely number one, buck yourself in. Like, there's a lot of content out there these days and, you know, you can listen to a lot and it's pretty easy to know that when so much
00:35:49
Speaker
content is out there, a lot of people are going to listen to it. So if you have a thought that's different to something you're not hearing, but you can justify it, you know, you just got to back yourself in. And, you know, that's, that's probably the biggest thing I learned like too many times. Like I traded in a dry sink in at round two, that didn't work at all. But, you know, I, yeah, so I, I definitely didn't have the Hail Mary season to finish up second.
00:36:19
Speaker
Real solid. I didn't really have too many poor weeks, but I didn't have a whole lot of top 100 for the rounds either. I was always just thereabouts, kept steady. So you don't have to have the perfect season to win it. You really do not. You don't have to make every trade correct. You've just got to keep strong, I guess, like Roy says.
00:36:48
Speaker
You know, if you get enough things right, eventually you can do it, I reckon.
00:36:55
Speaker
Yeah, that's a fantastic point you make, and you started 8,000, so not fantastic, but you just, you mentioned you had your starting squad pretty well in check. You know, Andy Brayshaw beginning with is just fantastic. I started him as well, but he was a top three mid basically from a low 100 price point. And when you do start so strongly, you're able to just, you know, use your trading game to bring in who you need to and to continue building. So I think that's a pretty good point that you're making.
00:37:23
Speaker
in not trying to do everything, but just be real solid and just build and build and build and back yourself. I think that's a fantastic point. Is there anything else you'd like to add? Yeah, as well. Probably, you don't have to pick the low percentage players all the time as well. If that's what you're thinking, you don't have to do that. It's more
00:37:50
Speaker
finding those value players. That's always going to be true to the game. Each season, I believe, is completely different. So I think we could well and truly see a different methodology win it next year. But it's more about playing the season as well as just playing the theory of the game.
00:38:15
Speaker
Yeah, no doubt, you know, Selby, when he first started dominating the game, played it differently to, you know, the people that won it sort of the early 2000s. And then it became different again when you guys did it this year. So you're exactly right. And the beauty of it is we're not going to know exactly how to go about it until we see some games in preseason. And we know how many rookies are going to come through, how many of these mid prices are going to be all right for us, because the reality is with this, you know, all this content in preseason,
00:38:43
Speaker
I think Steve sums it up on the draft doctors quite well. Everyone's improving. No one's regressing. Um, so yeah. So the reality is that there are going to be plenty of players regressing and not everyone's going to pop like we think they are. So that's, that's the beauty of the game. Um, little bit, little bit off the cuff here, but I've got a few sort of questions from this discord to, to go through. You're happy to stick around and sort of talk a little bit more. Yeah, man. Let's go.
00:39:08
Speaker
Beautiful. Let me just open these up and have a look. Didn't have too many in there. So have you done much planning for 2023 at the moment? Look, I was pretty burnt out by the end of 2022 mentally. Like I said, it does take up a lot of your brain. So I did have a good period without really thinking about it at all, which was nice.
00:39:36
Speaker
see your friends a lot more as well, which is good. But I haven't given it a whole lot of thought, but I've kept an eye on what trades have happened, what does that mean for the team that's traded, what does it mean for the team they're going to. So I've kept an eye on it. I haven't given it too much thought, but I've kept an eye.
00:40:01
Speaker
Yeah perfect and yeah it is pretty hard at this time of year but no doubt now that the positions are starting to, well the positions are out, prices will start to come out soon. I think the game will probably open in the next sort of two weeks just before Christmas so I suppose now's the time to kind of just get involved with the content again and start to have a play around and see
00:40:20
Speaker
see where it all lands. So just on that then, when you do your fantasy planning or throughout the year, do you use a lot of data or models or anything like that? Or do you just basically just, yeah, where do you get your information from and how do you go about it? Um, so I don't use like any models or anything like that. I truly believe in, um, like seeing the role of the player on the field.
Utilizing Fantasy Resources
00:40:50
Speaker
I watched a fair bit of footy last year and I was watching it because I loved the game, but you do tend to focus on the fantasy more than the game. I was looking for roles. I was quick to notice if someone's gone down injured, how does that team change? What does it do for the roles for the players?
00:41:17
Speaker
You know, and there are plenty of articles that go into what does this mean and all that kind of stuff. So they're the things I would really look for more so than the numbers and the stats really.
00:41:30
Speaker
Yep. One of, one of the things I like to do as well. So fan foot is a pretty fantastic website. Um, and one of the key metrics that I sort of look for is just seeing what they've done in the past and fan footy, you know, it has it all there and sort of, um, the seasons gone by where, what they've scored and things like that. So that's a good one to look at. But obviously we were, we were a member of Maria's magic last year. Yep. Yep. Absolutely. So, um, that, that was, uh, definitely a go-to.
00:42:00
Speaker
When I say I don't look at, like I don't go off the stats, that's a lie because I was on Maria's Magic every week. But, you know, the buy planner for that I used a lot. Pretty early on, like, you know, I reckon maybe around four or five I started putting my team in, started preparing, not dictating my trades, but preparing for the buys. You know, I wanted to make sure
00:42:28
Speaker
things went well and I think in the buy period from memory I went from 14 to third and that kind of set me up for the killer back after the year so the buys were definitely you know something I've focused on a lot more in past seasons and yeah that the the buy planner from Maria's Magic helped so much.
00:42:50
Speaker
Yeah, I couldn't agree more. It's a fantastic resource and obviously Selby does great things there with everything he does for charity as well. So if you are a serious fantasy player, when that platform gets released, I think it would be close to Christmas, if not early in the new year, I highly recommend getting on that. And that kind of rolls into our next sort of question from Sebastian. So during the season, what podcast do you listen to?
00:43:15
Speaker
So it takes me, I live in Sydney and you know I've got about an hour trip to get to work each morning and now a trip in the afternoon so you know I do consume, like that's my podcast time and you know I listen to you know the traders, I listen to the hat-chat boys, I listen to you guys in DOS, the Pod Pod, Moreira's Magic so they're probably the before I listen to so
00:43:44
Speaker
You know, I do love it, I can't get enough, so it's pretty easy to consume them all.
00:43:54
Speaker
Yeah, I'm exactly the same. I'll listen to a lot as well with driving to get to work and other stuff like that.
Balancing Content and Self-Belief
00:44:01
Speaker
But you are right where you say consume the content, but definitely back yourself in because it's very easy to get sort of persuaded by what a lot of other coaches on podcasts are saying, where you do still need to sort of back yourself in and not get swayed too much by what everyone else is saying. Yeah, great. And just because I came second last year,
00:44:20
Speaker
and I'm saying back yourself in does not mean I'm right either. Next year it might be the right move to listen to everyone on the podcast. So you just like, that's a great thing. You just don't know which way it's going to go. And yeah, I'm pretty, pretty keen to attempt to go one better next year. That'd be awesome.
00:44:39
Speaker
Yeah, right there with you, mate. But you're going to have to do it the year after because I've got it this year. Blue and orange, so he's just wanting to know about some of the top liners. So whether we touch the top liners this year or whether we're, you know, really going to look for more value. So I suppose that's kind of like a
00:44:55
Speaker
Dunkley, Tim Taranto type. I definitely think Tim Taranto presents value whilst being one of the top liners and Dunk's is pretty similar, but we kind of spoke about that philosophy before in terms of, we do, we're not afraid to go the top liners, but they do need to kind of present a little bit of value at the same time. So you're pretty happy with that, how we answered that before. Yeah, absolutely. You know, keep an eye out on those guys and you know,
00:45:25
Speaker
Watch them over pre-season, if they look like they're ticking boxes, there's every chance they'll be fantastic picks. And then, so, Blue and Orange has asked another one here. So, can you think of any traps that you sort of fell into last year or you saw people fall into from where you were sitting? Well, like I mentioned earlier, the biggest trap I fell into is not picking Darcy Cameron. Like, you know, that's a trap that, you know,
00:45:55
Speaker
not picking someone is also a trap. Sometimes if the writing's on the wall, you've just got to do it. But I got trapped with a Josh Simpkin as well. Not that he was a trap for everyone, because I'm stupid. Himmelberg, that's a risky pick, but it paid off for the most part, but that's definitely
00:46:22
Speaker
one that's up and down, you know, if he gets swung forward, you know, you can just about book in a 50. Top of my head, I can't remember anything else really.
00:46:33
Speaker
Yeah, I'll just back in on that. I think the biggest trap that I've fallen into over the years is picking a mid-price player that is not guaranteed best 22 because if they get dropped, you're just in no man's land. And it's easy to just think, you know, they've got 20, 30 points upside in a perfect world, but more often than not, these players that are right on the edge of a best 22, if they get dropped, your season's cooked. Like there's not a lot of coming back from that, especially if you,
00:47:01
Speaker
You have a couple of injuries alongside that player getting dropped.
00:47:05
Speaker
That's one of the biggest things. And I suppose one of the traps we sort of speak about on the pod pod as well in terms of early days is just reshuffling your rookies all the time. So like going from basement rookie to basement rookie to basement rookie once they all get dropped. And I kind of, I fell into that trap last year as well. I started Jake Seligo who turned out to be a very, very good pick, but I ended up, I think I traded him out maybe round four or five and then had to get him back after he put up a good couple of scores later on down the track.
00:47:36
Speaker
when I would have just been better off holding him and trading around him and hope that he comes back because if you trade from that rookie to another rookie, they don't have any better job security either. They're just lucky enough to be in the side for that one week. So that's one of the traps I sort of fall into a little bit and one of the spots in my game that I need to get better in terms of rookie selection.
Rookie Trading Pitfalls
00:47:57
Speaker
and trading them early days. Did you have any of those experiences with your rookies early days or you were able to nail everything pretty well with how you started? No, I do completely agree with those points. Rookies, you know, super important. I actually, in that round one, I had Nick Martin on my bench and looped him in for that 130. So I actually fielded Hollands in round one. So, you know, for the first 18, 19 weeks,
00:48:26
Speaker
I was having a donut through Hollins until he debuted. So, you know, never did I have 30, 30 grand dots. It is important, but, you know, just about every other rookie I nailed, like I started with a X-ary, started with Nick Martin, de Koning, a Patti McCartan, which were all great cash cows, but I was pretty good at,
00:49:09
Speaker
Yeah, very, very important. You said you haven't thought about it too much, but let's have a little bit of a discussion about some of that. We won't talk about rookie options because it's just like throwing a dart at a dartboard. We don't know until they're named, but any sort of mid-priced options that you've thought about? One that comes to mind is O'Meara. I know that's probably not the most popular person, but
00:49:21
Speaker
jumping off at the right time.
00:49:39
Speaker
I just want to keep him on my watch list. I want to see what kind of role he's got in the pre-season. If he's going to be in the guts, then he could present a bit of value. I do think he does have capability of going 100. That might be super unpopular, but I just think he's a good player. And the Kangaroos boys as well, I want to keep an eye on them. The young draftees, but then the guys like Will Phillips,
00:50:09
Speaker
An LDU. I know he's more of a primo, but he could be a bit of value as well
00:50:15
Speaker
Yeah, O'Meara, that's a little bit left field, to be honest. I've thought about it as well, not thinking that it's sort of a mid price or I'm going to start or anything, but I'm a Freo man, and I genuinely believe that he's just going to come in and slot straight into the midfield role that Mundy had last year. So he's going to have 60 to 65% CBAs, maybe even a little bit more, because Mundy's time on ground was a little bit capped.
00:50:40
Speaker
I think with Freo in the hunt, I think it's going to be Brayshore, Sorong, O'Meara with sprinkles of Will Brody and Fife and I think that's going to be a pretty solid midfield mix. So you definitely wouldn't think that he's going to go worse than the 80 that he got last season playing off the half forward flank.
00:50:57
Speaker
The Kangaroos boys, that's an interesting one. So I'll go off the back of this because I've been thinking about
Potential 2023 Mid-Priced Players
00:51:02
Speaker
it a bit. But Will Phillips, the fantastic thing about him is he's going to be rookie priced and he's going to be pretty close to basement. So if he's playing round one, that's just an absolute lock. Third year, former number three draft pick in a rebuilding side. Taryn Thomas, does he interest you at all?
00:51:22
Speaker
He does, but he's definitely on the watch list. Brilliant, brilliant footballer. It's probably more mental than anything else for him, I reckon. If he's coming out with a good mindset, he's probably almost a lock. If he gets himself together to play inside mid football, then who knows what he could do. What about you? Do you like him?
00:51:51
Speaker
A massive pre-season watch for me. I'm hoping that he shows something in the pre-season because if he does, like you said, he's a lock, he's a slam dunk pick. I think there's just something off about him at the moment in terms of just something we're not privy to, which we're not going to be. We're not inside the four walls of the football club.
00:52:13
Speaker
There was a pretty massive drop off last year and you would hope Clarko comes in and sorts it out and there's a rumor that he's going to be playing off the halfback and if he does that then he's going to be 30 points under that 56 price tag which is going to be a very very good pick for us as a forward.
00:52:32
Speaker
Some other ones I want to get your thoughts on. So it kind of goes off the back of O'Meara leaving. So we've had Tom Mitchell leave Hawthorne as well. So some of the Hawks boys. So we've got, you've got Josh Ward, you've got, you've got Warpool, we've got Newcomb. So there's clearly going to be opportunity at Hawthorne. Have any of those Hawks boys got your interest at all? Yeah, yeah. Joshy Ward, he's one,
00:53:01
Speaker
that I'm quite big on. Like, I think he could definitely present a lot of value. I'm not sure exactly what his price at, do you know what his price at home is? Not off the top of my head, but I'm pretty sure it's mid 70s. So that's, I think that's a bit of a barrier for him at the moment. He's just a little bit sort of in that middle area where you probably need him to go 95 plus from that price tag.
00:53:29
Speaker
Yeah, which I do think he can do because I'm pretty sure that center position is going to be his. Like I'm not a hundred percent sure, but I do think he will with the two, you know, Amir and Mitchell going out. It's almost a question of who's left if it's not him. Like, you know, and I know there's a Nukem who will be definitely all in there, but
00:53:58
Speaker
You know, it doesn't present as much value because he does have a bit of a heftier price tag. But we did see in the back, you know, maybe six or eight weeks with Josh Ward, he's got a fantasy game about him. He can score. So he's definitely on the watch list. I would, you know, um, would be keeping an eye on his preseason for sure. As well as, um, the other, the other boys you mentioned as well, like the Hawks mids have just got opportunity there. And when you've got opportunity, you've got to take note and see what happens.
00:54:28
Speaker
Yeah, that's exactly right. We don't know who's going to pop, but you just look for those teams that do have opportunities and roles available, and the Hawks, they definitely do. They're not going to win many games of footy this year, you wouldn't think, with the young team.
00:54:43
Speaker
I think that would be crazy not to have a Dylan Moore in there pretty much full time. He was sensational in the back half of the year, not only as a ball winning midfielder, but being able to get forward and kick goals as well. He's someone in that.
00:54:59
Speaker
I'm going to say Christian Pachaka mulled, not from body shape because he's not big, but he presents someone that can win ball in the midfield, but also get forward and get dangerous. So I think he's definitely one to watch. On top of Walpole as well, like Walpole, he's had back to back years of 95. So he's done it before.
00:55:20
Speaker
He hasn't had the opportunity yet. He had CBA's last year, but he was behind everyone. From all reports, he's burning up the track. He's priced at 56. So there's definitely growth there, but it would take a very ballsy coach, I think, to pick him off the back of, I think last year he had a game of 10 and that wasn't even injured. So clearly something going on there. No, I agree. Dylan Moore, he is just an unbelievably good footballer, I think.
00:55:50
Speaker
Taking away his fantasy ability, he can seriously play the game well, I reckon. So I do think he's going to get more time in the mids, just because I'm pretty sure Sam Mitchell absolutely loves him. And he's going to use him as a weapon who can push forward, kick goals, like you said. Like you said, he's not that bull, but he's almost creating a Dylan Moore-type player. He's getting a bit of a new blueprint for how to play a position
00:56:20
Speaker
which is pretty cool. And yeah, Josh, Josh Walpole, I mean, yeah. He, he's, you know, one you've got to take with a grain of salt again, like he does present so much value because he's done it before. He's one, yeah. Peter Crooman's metal, like he could, you know, does he get back to where he is? He doesn't, does he get the opportunity in the midfield or does he just go an average 14 or whatever? Like you just,
00:56:50
Speaker
Yeah, he's he's a big watch, but you know, there's every chance I've got three Hawks boys in the guts in my starting and midfield. Yeah, just on one point, and this kind of goes back to that podcast question as well. So I don't know if you've listened to, you clearly would have listened to Zave on Selby's podcast. But have you ever listened to the Hardball Gets podcast with Ryan Daniels and Xavier Ellis?
00:57:14
Speaker
No, I haven't. So that's a fantastic one, not just for fantasy, but it's more like footy related. And I remember Xavier Ellis talking about Walpole one day and telling the story. So Sam Mitchell had either just taken over or he was one of the high assistant coaches and he was working with Walpole and Walpole's kind of hit up for this sort of cheap, cheap kick.
00:57:36
Speaker
And Sam Mitchell was just ripped in for it saying, you know, what are you doing here? We need you getting up the ground to get to that next contest. Like, it's not your job to get that kind of cheap, cheap chicken.
00:57:49
Speaker
I'm just not sure whether, and clearly I'm not in the four walls, but clearly he's out of favour with Sam Mitchell and he doesn't really like some of his, you know, his aspects of how he plays. It was pretty evident with him making, making him do tag jobs and things like that last year. So maybe that 90, 95 averages, you know, the way that he used to play. And it's not realistic of what he can get back to in this New Hawk side. But until we see how it lines up in the preseason, it's pretty hard to sort of judge from now. Do you agree? Yeah, that's actually,
00:58:19
Speaker
I think that's a super important point and you can actually take a really good lesson from that.
Media Influence on Fantasy Strategies
00:58:25
Speaker
Going back to one of the questions you asked me before, my learning's from 2022 season. It's to not underestimate the story of the football game. They talk about a season like it's a TV series and this is season whatever. Each weekend's an episode.
00:58:49
Speaker
Every episode, the media builds up players so much and sometimes they can take that on board and then you see them go 50 one week and then the media crucifies them and then they come out and have 150. There's just so much of a story that goes into fantasy and not to be put off by what they've done in the past, but you
00:59:18
Speaker
you're training a player, you pick a player to do what they've done in the future. And that can be, you know, the story can be super important. Like, what are your thoughts on that? Do you agree or disagree?
00:59:30
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. I think it really highlights the need to actually watch a lot of footy. It's very easy to get caught in the numbers, but the numbers don't always tell the full picture and you're actually watching the games and being able to see it with your own eyes is super important.
00:59:49
Speaker
That is a very fantastic point you make in terms of if a player has a few off games and the media just absolutely rips them. Yeah, you're right. More often than not, they have a point to prove and they come out and they, yeah, they go bang. So it's definitely something to think about. We'll finish just on this question. So number 54. So last year starting three mid rookies was a play. And then he says, it's likely the play this year considering it was seen as a midfielder's draft.
01:00:18
Speaker
Who do you think, out of these sub 100 midfielders, are the most likely to take the next step this year and become, you know, bonafide mid premium? So we've got players like Noah Anderson. Tom Mitchell is clearly not a breakout candidate, but can he go back to that sort of 105? Simpkin, Guthrie, LDU, give us your thoughts there. From the guys you mentioned, I'd be hesitant on a Noah Anderson. Like, I think
01:00:49
Speaker
He's burned us all before, but in that Gold Coast team, I just can't see Matt Rau not being the main guy in there at some point. Whether it's this year, I don't know, whether it's in two years' time. But at some point in his career, he's going to have five or six years where he's the main guy, and he could take over as soon as this year. And when he does, that's going to hurt Anderson and Miller. So we just don't know. With the other guys, Tommy Mitchell,
01:01:18
Speaker
Not as crazy on him as everyone, the pre-season hype so far. Like I know he's so far under priced what he can do. Is he going to slot into the pies and just dominate like he used to? There's every chance. He's definitely a pre-season watch, but he's not the lock for me that everyone is talking about so far. So, you know, out of the guys there, I do like the look of a simpkin or do like a look of a LDU as well.
01:01:55
Speaker
I'm going to disagree a little bit with the Noah Anderson pick in terms of, I don't, I think he's gone past Matt Rau now. I think he, with his development and how he's come along, I think he's definitely gone past Rau. But why I don't think he's going to be the starting pick that we need him to be this year is more along the lines of Took Miller still being like Took.
01:02:14
Speaker
I think they could explode. What do you think?
01:02:18
Speaker
If he doesn't go close to winning the Brown load this year, I'll be very surprised. I think he's just primed to have another season like that. But the Gold Coast seem to change their game style. So they've gone away from that chip mark and very sort of direct. And I don't think in that system you have took going 110 and Anderson going 105, I think. I just don't think they have the fantasy
01:02:40
Speaker
capacity as a team to put those numbers up, but I do think Anderson should improve again. He's got all the tools to be a good fantasy player in the future. Tom Mitchell, personally, I think he's going to bounce back. I don't think he's going to be the 120-plus gun that he's been in the past, but
01:03:00
Speaker
Collingwood are just absolutely crying out for a center bounce midfielder to get in there and win the hardball and extract and They just didn't have that last year with Taylor Adams out every second week You know to go he did his best but they were so light on in that midfield, you know They were relying on on Pendlebury to have 80% CBAs and and we know he's been a gun in the past but he's definitely aging so
01:03:25
Speaker
Personally, I think Tom Mitchell slides straight in there I think he's gonna go he'll be 70% plus CBA is no problem and I think he'll be a mainstay in there and I Think he's as close to a slam dunk pick as we've seen in terms of most of the comp will jump on him So that's probably a reason for you to not jump on him But I think he's he's definitely at a 96 price that player that has the potential to go 105 plus Quite easily. I think
01:03:51
Speaker
Yeah, like I'm not saying he can't I'm just I'm just gonna watch it first like Yeah, I do agree with everything you just said there like and going back to Anderson Right now I think yeah, he's much better player than Mattie Rau I'm talking more Future stocks like I still think he's he's um gonna take over the competition at one point But yeah, I agree right now Anderson much better plan Sorry gone
01:04:20
Speaker
Yes, and then in regards to Simpkin and LDU, I think one of them is going to pop. I'm not sure which one it is. I think it's going to be highly dependent on which one receives the tag and which one doesn't. Personally, I think LDU is probably the one they should go after because he's far more damaging and powerful.
01:04:37
Speaker
The tag has gone to Simpkin more recently. How does that look with Cunnington coming back into the mix? How does that look with the new coach? So for those reasons, I wouldn't be picking either one of those because I'm just too unsure, but I can definitely see one of them popping. And then we won't talk, we won't talk about Cam Guthrie because I think he sort of passed it and Geelong showed him all sort of globe-chotter.
01:05:01
Speaker
style in terms of a full squad mentality rather than one player dominating. So I think you just park in, but we'll finish up the last sort of the five names that we've got here. So these are the breakout candidates. So give us out of these five, give us the two most likely that you think are going to take the next step and average over a hundred. So you've got Sorong, Warner, Nukem, Tom Green and Robottom. OK, the two.
01:05:28
Speaker
out of that group who I think can average 100 for 2023. Tommy Green. I think there's opportunity in the Giants midfield now. You know, Hopper, Torento. Actually, yeah, that's food. Tommy Green, he could be a bloody good pick. I think he's a good shout there. And the other one in that group. Sorry, just say him again real quick.
01:05:57
Speaker
Sorong, Warner, Newcomb and Robottom.
01:06:09
Speaker
I think you're pretty bang on. Row Bottom had a sneaky good end to the year and I know this because I had him in draft, got him off the waivers and he never had the ceiling but I think he was 105 for the last six rounds, don't quote me on that, but it was something like that and it was never a
01:06:27
Speaker
It was just a flat sort of he would score between 100 and, you know, 110 for the last six rounds. So he's, he's sneaky, but, you know, he's behind Mills, he's behind Parker. So you just don't know how that's going to go. Warner, Warner's one of those guys that I think because he's so good at football and he's so damaging, he started to get the tags. And I think that's going to put a bit of a cap on his ceiling. So although he should improve again, I don't think he's going to have the freedom to be that hundred averaging midfielder just yet because he's going to have to learn to deal with that attention.
01:06:58
Speaker
Sarong's the interesting one. We've been picking the Sarong breakout for three years now. I've never been as big on it just because I know how long it takes for these players to sort of come to fruition. But you would think on, you know, the track that Brayshore went, this was the year that Brayshore went 104, so he broke through and cracked the ton. And you would think with Brayshore taking off,
01:07:20
Speaker
he's going to be the one that gets the attention and you would think Sarong's just going to have the ability to improve again. So it wouldn't surprise me if Sarong's around the mark, whether he gets there or not, it's a different question, but you're right. I think Newcomb, although
01:07:35
Speaker
might not be a hundred. He's got all the attributes and the opportunity to go close. You know, I kind of think of him as a Jacob Hopper type. Maybe his ceiling is going to be 95 purely because he gets so much of his scores from tackles and inside ball and not as much from cheap outside ball. But I think he's not someone I'm going to start because I don't think there's enough growth there, but he's got all the, he ticks all the boxes to improve. That's for sure. Yep. Yep. No, I agree.
01:08:05
Speaker
Agree with all of that. We just have to wait and see. One thing before we go, question without notice for you, Hosey. If you can give me, for 2023, your D1, M1, your R1, and your F1, I just want to know where your head's at in terms of the big guys. What are we thinking? So as in for this season, as it stands right now? 2023, like who's going to be at the top in each line?
01:08:36
Speaker
Yeah, okay. Well, I've had a bit of a play around with it. D1, it is hard to go past Sam Ducky. I'm not gonna lie. What he did last year off no pre-season, he was sensational and you would think Colton improved again. And he even went into the midfield in round 23. And I know that it was because they were depleted. Hewitt was out, Walsh was out, they had no one.
01:09:05
Speaker
But what can't that man do? So he never really gets a tag. I think he had one game against St Kilda where they chuck someone on him. But other than that, I think Docketty is going to be D1. There's no reason at the moment why he won't. M1, this is super tough because we know each year, it's like throwing darts, right? Each year it's never the same player as it was before. But I'll just say Rory Laird because
01:09:31
Speaker
He got better as the season went on and they never tag him. It would be hard to maintain those tackle numbers that he was putting up. So maybe he falls back a little bit there. But I think like a Rory Laird, there's no reason why he's going to come back to the pack just at the moment. I think he's going to have all the opportunity again.
01:09:53
Speaker
Ah, one. Tim English, probably the easy answer. I think there's too many unknowns with the Gorn and Grundy combination of how that's going to work. There's too many unknowns about the Jackson-Darcy combo, although I think Darcy will be the majority Ruck and Jackson will just chop out, but we don't know how that's going to work.
01:10:13
Speaker
What we do know is, and because I'm a free man, Rory Lobb is a bit of a, he doesn't like to get into the ruck too much. He prefers to sit forward and do work his craft that way. So I firmly believe that Tim English will be, you know, that sort of 80, 75, 80% ruck. And I think with another preseason under his belt, I think he's going to start the way that he started last season. So I think he,
01:10:36
Speaker
If he stays healthy, I think he's probably pretty close to being our R1 and an F1. He can't go past Josh Dunkley. He is ready to explode. And it honestly wouldn't surprise me if he has a brown low level season at some point soon, because I think being behind who he was behind, being behind Bont and McCray at the Bulldogs, I think we were yet to see his full potential, which is quite scary. Yeah, fair enough.
01:11:03
Speaker
I'm pretty sure you've just given me the four most vanilla picks that you could choose. Dossi would not be proud. Yeah, look, it's at this time of the season, you're right. If you want. So my sort of, it's not as vanilla, but I think Angus Brayshaw, if he keeps that midfield role, I think he has improvement on what he did this year. So he's currently sitting at my D1.
01:11:31
Speaker
But Smoky, yes. Yeah, Smoky, you know, I think a Darcy Parrish under a new coach could be like what we've seen him do. His numbers were big in 2021 when he got the role. And then even last year he was flying until he got that calf injury and then he was slow to come back. So he's someone that I'm very big on as well.
01:11:51
Speaker
A smoky in the ruck, I'm not willing to write Darcy Cameron off just yet. I think priced at 82, we saw him go mid 90s for once he got that main ruck roll and we only really saw him drop away where he had those games where Mason Cox seemed to be the number one ruck and I'm pretty convinced that with them getting Dan McStay in, I think it's going to be more of Darcy Cameron and Dan McStay rather than Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox 50-50.
01:12:17
Speaker
And then I've already given you the forward, like Dylan Moore, I think. If he's anywhere near that sort of 50, 60% CBAs like he was towards the end of the year, I think he could well average over 100 in an improvement. So there's some smokies there if you're happy with that. Beautiful. Love it, mate. That's the juice I was after. Yeah. Thanks for hosting the pod, mate. Appreciate it. Yes. Sorry. Sorry.
01:12:39
Speaker
Nah mate, we'll wrap it up there. Thank you so much for giving up your time. I really appreciate it. It's really good to, you know, you clearly know what you're talking about and I'll definitely be keen to, you know, have a bit more of a chat with you a little bit later in the pre-season where I haven't sort of just messaged you a couple of days before and said, will you jump on when you've actually sat down and really started to plan your team and really looked at it. Cause yeah, I'd be very happy to pick your brains again knowing, you know, yeah.
01:13:06
Speaker
knowing what you're very good at this game and yeah, so thanks once again. Any final thoughts? No, just have a good Christmas and we'll talk when we get out a bit more serious in the new year maybe. Thanks for having me on home team. It was good fun. Awesome mate, thanks again. Take care. Cheers.