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More Rucking Problems in the F--king Byes | #PODPOD
99 Plays3 years ago
Dos & Lewy investigate all of the ruck options on offer for each of the bye rounds on both ends of the pricing spectrum following the devastating hambone injury to Seanny Darc. Then, Lewy drops his fire list of targets coming off their round 12 byes and the lads answer a heap of YOUR listener questions ahead of week two of bye-round madness!
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Transcript
Introduction and Episode Topics
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to the Point of Difference AFL fantasy podcast, a fresh perspective on AFL fantasy classic brought to you by the keeper league pod. On this episode, we look ahead to week two of the pesky buy rounds with a little spanner thrown in the works as well. We check out some targets fresh off their buys and answer your listener questions. Chicka chicka pod pod.
00:00:37
Speaker
Welcome to the Pod Pod.
Fantasy League Performance Review
00:00:39
Speaker
I'm Dos in the Dos' Den here with Louis. How are you mate? Good mate, yourself? Yeah, not too bad, Louis. Coming off a big, big week for Dos. He's had a good week. Yeah, he's got all right this week. Cracked the 1700 in the first week of the buy rounds. But how did you go? In fact, up there at the top of the rankings, I want to hear how you're going, Louis.
00:00:59
Speaker
Yeah, not too bad. I scored just a fraction more with the 17-28, which was good. That was from 20 players on field. I'm not sure how many you managed to get there, Dossie? Yeah, I think it was about 20 as well. That's obviously the magic number because, at least in my experience, I was able to drop off Tom Highmore and Riley Collier Dawkins 21 and 29. So it's always good when you've got more than 18 players playing because you're not as disappointed unless you're a Bally Smith owner, of course.
00:01:28
Speaker
Yeah, so I got the 1704, moved up a couple of thousand in the rankings. Where are you sitting in the rankings these days? Come up about 150 spots. I'm into 458 this week. Repping the pod-pod very nicely. But it was a very strange week of fantasy, of course, with the first week of the Byron's. We got some news that we'll touch on a bit later that's going to throw a little bit of a spanner in the works, as we mentioned at the top of the show.
00:01:52
Speaker
with what's coming with the remainder of the by rounds with some Richmond and West Coast changing up their structure there.
Buy Rounds Reflection and Player Highlights
00:02:00
Speaker
But first of all, we'll reflect on the first week of the by rounds round 12 and our nailed it, failed it. I want to hear your nailed it for the week. It's got to be Zach Bailey, doesn't it? Never in doubt.
00:02:11
Speaker
I never even considered trading Zach Bailey trust me Dossie 99 fantastic that's sort of what I wanted to see I thought he might be that 80 to 90 guy and 99 he showed it I think he got on the end of a few snags there but he looked good Dossie
00:02:28
Speaker
Yeah, he was very good. I was saying he's almost, he's sort of touching those Toby Green territories as a small forward. He doesn't have the aerial presence Toby Green does, but whenever he gets it, you think it's going to go through for a snag and he's so dangerous. Whenever the ball's in his vicinity and just his snaps, he's got such great goal sense, but you, I think, you know, I still think you're a little bit kissed with this, this selection. You thought he was going to be a midfielder. Don't deny it. Yeah.
00:02:53
Speaker
Yeah yeah so obviously overall I've probably been let down a little bit but look when I when I traded him I said there's very minimal downside and I've copped none of that downside I've only copped six points upside since I traded him in so pretty happy with Zaki Bailey who was your nailed it this week?
00:03:11
Speaker
Oh, my nailed it this week. Sitting in my midfield, M1. He could have been my F1. He's got the dual DPP status there. But a green dot, an unexpected green dot from big paddy down. Oh, nice, nice. I nailed it. Held him all season. Somehow he's still in the squad. And gee, he actually might be a nice little option over the bike coverage for the next week after this week. Yeah, well, what did he score?
00:03:36
Speaker
The 48, 48. Yeah, but he had a break even there abouts the same. He's gone down a little bit in price. So for not owners, he's actually 287 K now. Can you get tempted again? Well, I was saying to Stado this week that yeah, you could because look, Carlton have shown that they do want to give him games.
00:03:56
Speaker
Obviously, he's been admitted a few times, but if he gets a run at 270k, I'd rather pay up for Patty Dow over one of these mystery rookies in the 200s. I can't believe I'm saying that, but you've got to consider it.
00:04:11
Speaker
I loved seeing him back out there and he actually led the Blues for clearances and center clearances as well. Shocked me that he actually got, they put Ed Kurnow back in there at the start of the final quarter after he had a seven disposal and a few, few clearances in the third quarter. I actually think it was a training wheels, training wheels teague moment there, not popping Patty in the last quarter, but I think my real nailed it was actually Caleb Polter a few weeks bringing him in.
00:04:36
Speaker
Brought him in after probably one of his biggest scores thinking, you know, I just wanted to jump on the wave and man, he's making cash, dropped a tonne, 105, and really looks like a good player. And have you got on the pull to train? No, I missed the pull to train. Yeah, that week I didn't end up trading down to any rookies, so I missed out on him. But yeah, he's been a little bit of a surprise. I know I was scoring well at VFL level, but at AFL that's translated that and more. And he just runs up those wings and takes marks all day.
00:05:04
Speaker
Yeah. Also the bond, mate. I've, I've said him multiple times. I keep banging on, man. People have got to jump on this. He's, he's absolutely carving it. What about he failed it? Let's get a little bit negative. Who was your failed it for the week? That's the other Bailey in my team. Uh, Bailey Smith with a 44. That was the worst score on field this week for me. He was my 18th scorer. I would have been happy with a 70. I would have taken that. I was expecting an 85 plus.
00:05:31
Speaker
versus Fremantle, 44 looked nowhere near it because he wasn't. He didn't attend a single center bounce. So obviously he's been bevowed. Caleb Daniel is now the number three midfielder at the dogs. How is that, mate? I did not see that coming. I wouldn't have thought Bailey Smith was the one that was going to get bevowed.
00:05:49
Speaker
Yeah look it sucks and I shouldn't be so bitter because as a football fan you know Bevo's allowed to experiment and try new things and and when the game's cooked he can do what he likes but I just you get frustrated when you see blokes like Caleb Daniel get minutes in the center bounces over Bailey Smith who was drafted as a pure midfielder and has been a superb one at that since so you know
00:06:13
Speaker
Take the good with the bad dos and I think Bailey Smith. See, I was just, my wires were crossed on which Bailey I was trading. It was Bailey Smith. Yeah, so he's on the way out for you. You reckon now it's just too awesome? I won't go early because I did get a few tweets saying, well, I thought you were trading Zach Bailey. We recall this podcast on a Monday. I've got no idea what I'm doing. And we've let statesmen know who's the biggest fan of Zach Budders on the planet that
00:06:39
Speaker
Zach Bailey, but might be the superior ZB in the league. So your boy Zach Bailey doing great things. My failed it. I want it. There's a few rookies that really didn't perform that I was hoping to carry me through the buy arounds like a Chad Warner. Although he's a second year, maybe I could give it to him, but I'm just going to sit with Liam Baker, give the young kids a break. Liam Baker, just the 72 brought him in to play that mid roll a couple of weeks ago. Really my own fault for backing him in. Oh, disgusting.
00:07:08
Speaker
hasn't been terrible, but you know, you've got guys like Trent, guys that have come back as well and outscoring Lambaker. So yeah, the mids have come back, just a poor decision to bring him in and now looking like someone that I want to get rid of. But luckily enough, I might need his score this week. So Richmond coming up and playing this week is probably actually going to help me and I might have to hold Lambaker another week and see how he goes against
00:07:31
Speaker
West Coast. Luke, we've got a lot of hot topics this week, and that one is probably on the top of the list that I just mentioned with the buy rounds, but let's get to some hot topics.
Impact of Team Changes on Fantasy Strategies
00:07:46
Speaker
On to hot topics, Lew and West Coast, Richmond. They've moved from the round 13 buy, now going to have that round 14 buy. So we've got a stack of teams now. We've got eight teams now with the round 14 buy and two less having it this week in Richmond and West Coast. So we haven't really got confirmation yet what's going to happen in AFL fantasy. We're recording on a Monday night, as we always do.
00:08:11
Speaker
hopefully we get confirmation soon. But I think based on what Warnie's kind of tweeted out into the fantasy world for the community is that it looks like we're just going to play the regular game this week and then maybe get an extra trade or two next week. Is that the vibe you're kind of getting?
00:08:25
Speaker
Yeah, I guess that's probably what I've seen on Twitter. Personally, I think it's a bit strange. Probably should get an extra trade this week and next week, just because it did come quite quickly, that news, and we didn't actually find out until after that Friday game. In fact, I think even the Pies game might have started at 4 o'clock on the Saturday. So I guess we just play it by ear and see what happens, and we plan our strategy around that.
00:08:54
Speaker
Yeah, it's going to be interesting. We'll have to wait and just hear official word. We don't want to speculate. No. And it's tough for them as well because, you know, what do you do? You're making decisions on behalf of probably a hundred thousand people and not everyone's going to like it. So we'll see what they say and what has to be done. And then we figure out a way to combat that.
00:09:14
Speaker
That's it. And we look forward to figuring out what that's going to be and some new strategies around that as well. And funnily enough, though, I've got to say, my trades last week, I went a bit risque. As you know, I'm not up there like the top thousand man that you are there, Lou. And I did bring in Dustin Martin, who had that round 14 buy.
00:09:32
Speaker
with the hope that he played this week because I actually would have been pretty heavy on the round 14 so it actually kind of helped me and I actually traded riskily with the hope that that was going to happen because we kind of heard rumours throughout the week that that was a chance to happen so yeah maybe it helps some coaches too and hinders others so it's probably just you know it's going to be roundabout in the fantasy community but
00:09:54
Speaker
Good luck to everyone and we'll just keep an ear out for what's going to happen there. Another spanner in the works for coaches with the ruck injury this week, obviously replacing Grundy last week. But we've had another, the R3, the apparent R3 this season, Shawnee Darcy.
00:10:11
Speaker
The universe is funny. Injured.
Injury Impacts and Player Role Changes
00:10:14
Speaker
I feel sorry for owners. I've been very happy watching his development this year. Has looked absolutely beast. At least he got, you know, K's score before going down injured. He was absolutely monstering the rut combo of Steph Martin before he went down and then Tim English on the weekend. But he's done a hammy. That's likely a few weak injury there. And I guess the only silver lining is we probably got meat coming back in for us who's owned by a stack of coaches there.
00:10:40
Speaker
Yeah, so I mean the silver lining, like you said, part of that would be that Sean Darcy, unless you did plan to keep him in your forward line, which I'm sure a lot of coaches did being that forward status, but still Sean Darcy was somebody that you brought in that you didn't necessarily want to.
00:10:57
Speaker
It's unfortunate he's got injured. It's fortunate that he was injured on 93. I think you now use his price point to create something else. So, like I say, get creative with it. Injuries suck and, jeez, it's ironic after we actually said on the podcast last week with Harmony, well, sometimes it clicks. Sometimes they're fit. Well,
00:11:17
Speaker
Sean Darcy, this is what happens and it's a terrible week for it to happen. Yeah, it's rough and Statesman's been going on at me on Pod Pod Plus as well about how he's injury prone and that he wasn't going to admit defeat until Sean Darcy, who I proclaimed might have been a top six forward
00:11:36
Speaker
He wasn't going to proclaim defeat that he was wrong on that front until he got through a season unscathed and Darcy's now gone down injured so I've probably taken the L there. Another injury in that game was five, dislocating his shoulder so that's another popular forward target that people might have had. I don't think either of us was super keen on him just given his role fluctuations but unfortunate for owners and going to have to find a man to replace him in the midfield. Is there anyone, does that sort of
00:12:05
Speaker
upgrade any of your do you like sarong a little better now or any any of the options from freeman or with him out of the side oh you'd probably look at brayshore or sera um who've shown a bit more ceiling i think sarong's probably been a little bit disappointing this year and and his scoring has actually come from tagging roles
00:12:23
Speaker
So that's a little bit of a concern for me. Nat 5, it's unfortunately went down. I think it's the same shoulder that he got surgery on a couple of years ago. And yeah, so obviously he's a must trade 680k. He hasn't really gone anywhere since the start of the season. And that's kind of why we said, well, don't worry about trading in five. I understand he's cheap at 670k, but when you can't actually bang out a score over 105, you never end up going above that price anyway. So
00:12:51
Speaker
Yeah, it's unfortunate for owners. He's been chugging along nicely and he's a must trade now, obviously. Yeah, might have to just look at a few options from Fremantle and see which one of those guys maybe gets the Cenobounce usage. It might even be a Walters or someone like that as well. Maybe it's just Mundy. Sunny!
00:13:09
Speaker
Uh, Andy McGraw, he's out from for eight to 12 weeks as well. We don't always touch on injuries on the pod pod, but I think at this point of the year, there's just a couple of things that are making things interesting. And, you know, unfortunately for Andy McGraw, but I actually just mentioned it as well, because if there's ever, if there were ever questions about Darcy Parrish staying as a pure midfielder after, even after his explosion for this past couple of months now.
00:13:33
Speaker
We've now got Andy McGrath, who was attending some center bounces, certainly playing an outside inside role there. He's out for eight to 12 by a look. You've still got Caldwell, Jai Caldwell, who was their midfield recruit in the off season, still out for seven to nine weeks or there. He's done. He's probably out for the season.
00:13:50
Speaker
And Dylan Shields still a month plus away, four to five weeks. Is Parrish just going to be the out and out number one mid from here to the end of the season? Probably. Yeah. In fantasy footy. Crazy. Absolutely. And his price tag now is just getting through the roof. So, yeah, well, that's the next question that comes. Do you trade in Darcy Parrish? You know, he's going 140 every week.
00:14:13
Speaker
The answer from me is no you don't. You don't trade in Darcy Parish, not at his price, because he's now made, I think he's the most expensive player in the comp actually, and all the coaches that jumped on from when he was 570k back in around 4,
00:14:30
Speaker
and have ridden that wave, they've got the advantage, they've got the points on the board. You can't trade him in this week and get his 160 from last week. There's no point chasing these coaches that have already got him, you're just matching him. Go against them, find the next one. McRae's got him by 12K, but aside from that, he's... That's unbelievable. Once again, fuck Rory Sloan.
00:14:52
Speaker
Only reason I couldn't bring him in in round four. Absolutely brutal. Dangerfield potentially returning is probably the final hot topic we've got here. Oh, there's actually one more hot topic. But is he an immediate option if Dangerfield returns? No, no, because Chris Scott, it's a laid out written all over it. Why wouldn't you name your best player and then have your competition sort of start? I mean, they're going to do their homework anyway. Yeah.
00:15:17
Speaker
and then pull him late. That's going to throw some things around in the coaching board. So yeah, I could see... He's got the Thursday game though, so we'd know early. Would we? Yeah, he's the first. I mean, laid outs for Geelong mean an hour before the game.
00:15:34
Speaker
Yeah. Oh, you're saying Thursday night for longs got a Thursday game. So yeah, you could still be the laid out, but that does give you a bit of adaptability. Um, you wouldn't want to watch the role. You want to see the role. Yeah. No, I'm not sure what his break even is, but I don't imagine he's going to go up much this week. If at all. So yeah.
00:15:54
Speaker
Have a look, don't go immediately, it's our probably early opinion. And our final hot topic, I just wanna have a look at the rucks now that we do have no Grundy steel. Well, we don't know that yet, but shouldn't have Grundy this week, you'd imagine. R2 and R3, what do we do there? And we're just gonna look at a few options from each of the buy rounds. A couple of premiums and a couple of cheapies from each one. Round 12, we'll start there.
00:16:22
Speaker
This is the premiums on offer, like inverted commas premiums from round 12. Latins, you can't go there, surely. Goldie, you can't go Goldie, especially with Campbell in the team. If they dump one of their rocks, maybe, but even still, they'll probably bring in a Sherry or something to fill that dual rock. Yeah, I think they would. Goldie's getting old. He's getting very old. No Goldie, no Latins. McAvoy, you can't with Reeves in if he's playing still.
00:16:49
Speaker
Lyset suspended so he's not going to play this way. So is there no round 12 premiums we can trust?
00:16:56
Speaker
Um, no, there's none. You wouldn't trust that list at all. So let's look at the cheapies then. These are the ones on offer this week. And these are the popular ones that I'm probably looking at. If you do have, or if you do have to try to Sean Darcy and the like, you got Ned Reeves from Hawthorne who's looking fantastic has just news. Word just came out of Hawthorne that he signed what a two year contract extension contract extension. So what does that mean there? Low dog that they're going to back him in for the rest of the year or that they're just locking him away as a project and they've got him on the books means have seen something.
00:17:26
Speaker
And from his two games already, they've raved about him. They really like what he's done, especially in the last 12 months. He's gotten a go. Perfect. And he's learned to swim, so to say, at the AFL level. And I think that he'll be someone who gets a go consistently throughout the rest of the year. Sometimes he might see Big Boy take the main rock roll to give him a bit of a chop out. But I think they are looking towards the future now.
00:17:51
Speaker
Ben McVoy's 31. It's time to get Reeves in and get that next big ruckman coming through because it's not Segler. Just get him in if he's named. He's up there with one of the most...
00:18:02
Speaker
not must-have you never have a must-have but he's close isn't he with a negative break even he's pretty close we went very close to saying Trent Bianco was a must-have and I'm pretty sure to this point Reeves is uh outscoring his average yeah so for that reason alone yeah bring in Reeves the only reason maybe he's not a must-have is you might not be able to get him on field
00:18:22
Speaker
Yeah, the other guys that are the cheapies for round 12. We've got Ned Moyle, but he won't play Willy for Gold Coast. He's not training with the main group. I think so. I'm pretty sure he's someone who's training away from the main group before he can enter the state due to COVID, I think. Yeah, just keep an eye on that. Unlikely he plays, but yeah, keep an eye on it. 170K. They're desperate to get it ruck, someone in there that can actually get a hit out.
00:18:50
Speaker
Chrissy Burgess, our lord and savior, might be able to ride us through the buyers there. And Matty Flynn, if you've still got him, he's been a fantastic hold. Unfortunate for us when we dumped him early, you'd probably say now, Louis.
00:19:05
Speaker
Yeah, I mean him sorry Grundy going down has really opened up for Flynn owners. So it's been it's been a really good hold now around 13 This is just to get us through obviously these guys aren't playing this way But there's not a stack of options from around 13 that we can look at but one that is kind of tempting I guess would be Tim English. He's got no Steph Martin. He also went down injured during the dogs game and
00:19:29
Speaker
I guess the other option is also a cheap option there with Jordan Sweet would be the other end of the scale. So if Jordan Sweet comes in for Steph Martin and they go that drill ruck setup, do either of those guys tempt you if you're looking for around 13 ruck option?
00:19:42
Speaker
Sweet's probably an awkward price now to trade down to him, but I do think that Sweet will take the main ruck role. I think the Bulldogs like what Tim English offers as a forward slash chopout ruck at this point, and the plan for them would be to bring Stefan Martin back in the finals, you'd imagine, or whenever he's fit. So there's no point.
00:20:02
Speaker
changing Tim English's role too drastically so I probably wouldn't touch sweet at his price though and Tim English I don't mind. I like him as an option. Something that I just can't not get concerned about is that he missed four weeks of football with a head knock.
00:20:19
Speaker
Yeah I know it's trivial now and he's playing football but it's just something where the unreliability of him just not getting named for four weeks would have been really frustrating for coaches and it's just something that I want to avoid in general just superstitions maybe but
00:20:40
Speaker
No, don't like it. Yeah, fair enough. The other one would be Sam Draper. If he's named coming off his buyer. Absolutely. He's really cheap and he's going to be that number one ruck eventually at Essendon. If he just gets named straight after his buyer, could you go there at 400 and whatever K is?
00:20:56
Speaker
Yes, super keen if you've got cover because with Essendon we saw last year that they were prepared to play Draper and just put him on ice for a game and then he comes back. So, they'll take their time with Draper in respect to his body. He might have managed minutes. He might play two and then out for one and then play two. But if you've got back up at his price point, I love Sam Draper.
00:21:17
Speaker
Round fourteen the premiums get nice and juicy but there's a stack
Premium Ruck Options and Player Evaluations
00:21:21
Speaker
of them. Unfortunate for people that traded in Nick Nat hoping he'd come off his round thirteen buy and be available for round fourteen sorry. I know Ahami for instance who was on the show last week he brought in Nick Nat so that he'd have him
00:21:36
Speaker
for round 14 and assuming he was going to have his buy on round 13. So obviously that's now been moved. But these are probably the three premiums here. And would you say this is the order? You'd probably have them as well in preference. I've got Gorn, O'Brien and Nick Nat as the top three. Would you say that? I mean, assuming Grundy's out, by the way, you'd have Grundy in there as well. Yeah, it's those three, I think. OK.
00:21:59
Speaker
A lot of cheapies too. So Amati for Sydney, really, really good option. 197 centimeter. Filled in the play to play the role of
00:22:10
Speaker
What's his name? Hayden McLean and, bloody hell, Calum Sinclair. So he came into, those guys got omitted. He came into play that role, played pretty well, scored well. Now, have I got him as the wrong buy here? Is he a 14 or a 13? No, he's 14, Sydney. So not a bad option if you're looking for around 14 rookie as well. So did you like the look of him?
00:22:34
Speaker
I loved him. I thought he looked really good. Even though I brought in Riley O'Brien this week, I couldn't help but think, gee, I could have saved a bit of coin here. Especially Ruck Ford's status, too, doesn't he? He's got the Ford status in there. So yeah, a great little option there. My boy, Chol and CCJ, would you trust either of those guys now on the Round 14 buy as well? They're going to play this week. They've got Nick Nat. Well, Chol has Nick Nat. CCJ, Colin Coleman, Jones playing more as a permanent Ford. Is it worth jumping on either of those guys?
00:23:03
Speaker
It's awkward to jump on because Colin Coleman Jones is playing as a key forward mostly so he relies on his marks and his goals. He's not going to score. I think he kicked four goals and he scored 76. So you know if you get more realistic being a young key forward he probably kicks one to two goals a game.
00:23:21
Speaker
Which dwindles down to about fifty five when you pay four hundred K for that it just doesn't add up for me and then show he's about same he's about four hundred K. He could have the rock roll and he certainly did on the on the way he had eighty percent time on ground which is what I was worried about he was at sixty percent the week before so eighty plus percent time on ground and playing majority rock.
00:23:42
Speaker
The problem is, if he wasn't up against Nick Nat this week, he'd be tempted, but he's probably going to get absolutely destroyed. That, and the problem is that Damian Hardwick last week in his presser actually threw up Samson Ryan's name, who's more of a pure ruckman, so he could be someone who comes in and basically starts developing as a ruck while they throw child back, forward, wherever they want, because he's been a bit of a swingman in recent years. Max Lynch, you'd think,
00:24:09
Speaker
He's not a rookie option, is he? Because you've got Grundy just lurking as soon as Grundy's back, he's there. Total stop gap. So just avoid him. I think we much prefer even the Armati option over him. What about Josh Tracy as well? He looked great on the weekend and I think he's established his role from here for at least a few weeks.
00:24:28
Speaker
I love Josh Tracy. He was someone who from his first game when I watched him, you know when you can just see it? You can see they've got something. I know the way that that kid attacks the footy, he's going to be a very, very good forward one day. Unfortunately, Statesman doesn't know his footy and convince me otherwise.
00:24:47
Speaker
No, Tracy, I love, I think he's a serious option. What would he be about 250K this week? So, still worth trading in. The only thing with that is, at his price and not being pure ruckman, he's also gonna be reliant on goals. So, the scoring may fluctuate a little bit. Yeah, he's about 250K. Might even get a chop out in the ruck with Darcy out. With, yeah, and meat coming in, presumably. Meat probably coming in, yeah.
00:25:16
Speaker
Anyway, I like those options. Those are just some rock options for you from each of the buy rounds. Good luck with whatever choice you go with. It's probably just a bit of a lottery there, but are you gone? You've already got the, you brought in Rob, didn't you? So you've sort of gone the double premium still.
00:25:33
Speaker
Yeah, so I brought in Rob and I've got Max and Rob at R1 R2. Yeah, I think I'm going to roll the dice with Reeves this week if he's named and maybe even bring in another one of these cheap rookies to field well to sit on the bench and make some coin in the meantime.
00:25:50
Speaker
Alright if you enjoy our weekly podcast then join up to be a member of Pod Pod Plus for an extra weekly podcast recorded on a Wednesday night with five time top 100 finisher The Statesman, not even the greatest year this year but he's still battling away and giving you guys all the advice to
00:26:06
Speaker
to get your hats. And that'll be a heavy focus on answering your listener questions. You'll get exclusive access to the Facebook group, the Pod Squad, and that's to throw around your trade ideas. We've even had a few stats going up there lately, which has been really interesting. And you can use that to brainstorm with other Pod Pod Plus members as well. And last but not least, you get a shout out on this podcast. So a warm welcome to the latest Pod Pod Plus members, LP, Spencer Briars, Bradley Beswick,
00:26:36
Speaker
David van Gendevoort and Damon Tyball. A huge thanks to all our new members of the pod squad. Head to keepleagpod.com.au, go to the premium resources tab and hit bonus episodes or click the link in the podcast description and sign up today.
00:26:53
Speaker
Okay. Targets for round 12. These are Louie's round 12 trade targets. If you want to hear John Hamme from last week, an absolute fantasy guru, giving out his targets for, he gave out targets for round 12, 13, and 14, just a bunch of potential bargains and some premiums that he liked. If you want to hear that, just listen to the podcast from last week.
00:27:15
Speaker
But Louis is going to touch on purely the guys from round 12 that you can jump on now. They're obviously going to carry you through the buyers and these are players from the buyers that have had them last week in round 12 and that's Port Gold Coast, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS and North Melbourne. So, Louis, do you want to just take us through your targets that you've got for us?
00:27:34
Speaker
Yeah, so I thought I'd just quickly talk about all these players, brief little comment, and obviously based on your team you might have, you know, six defenders right now, you can't trade in a seventh. So you're gonna have to go somewhere else. So for that reason we won't expand too much and everyone's got their own little unique team at the moment and their own idea of the direction they want to go in. We're just here to sort of help guide that. So first off the list we've got Dan Houston.
00:28:00
Speaker
Dossie who I think he's had two or three games where he's actually come off injured with that saw AC joint Which is also a flag that's something you got to be worried about them right now He is seriously under price at 580 K. I love him as an option He's up there with my top, you know if we had to go power rankings of
00:28:18
Speaker
of these out of these this list that you're about to produce I'm sure that Houston would sit in my top three I'd say uh yeah including he had that round five game where he played 25 percent time on ground I can't remember what injury that was was that the shoulder or something yeah I think it might have been that shoulder yeah so 25 percent time on ground managed to play the next game though then Brisbane in round seven only 71 percent time on ground
00:28:40
Speaker
Also injury affected 51% against Adelaide. That was the second time he he injured himself That was definitely the shoulder that one then he didn't play came back against Collingwood limited time on ground again So he's had a bunch of games where he's been injury affected but looked pretty good in round 11 his last game before his buy against Freo had the 97 points still playing mostly as a defender where
00:29:05
Speaker
I think we both agree he's like the Jack Crisp though he can if he's a defender he's 95 to 100 if he's a midfielder it's a bonus maybe he's 105 to 110. Spot on and Jack Crisp is a great example to use because what I was just about to say is that what Dan Houston possesses is an ability to go 140 he can do that.
00:29:25
Speaker
He can just I think last year around 23 versus Collingwood. He went about 130 took 15 marks or something crazy like that. So Dan Houston with his ceiling and what we've already seen historically from a fantasy perspective. He's a huge
Unique Fantasy Picks and Player Returns
00:29:40
Speaker
option. He's already had a 127 this year.
00:29:42
Speaker
Exactly so yeah the only concern is that AC joint maybe you can wait a week just watch it but he's someone who at his price he'll quickly get away from you so yeah I don't mind taking a punt on that we'll go to his teammates now as well Ollie Wines who comes in at a premium now he has had a super good season
00:30:03
Speaker
and he's clearly Port's number one guy now. Boke's probably a little bit behind him these days. I think Wines is doing the heavy lifting in there and his fantasy is reflecting that. He's currently going at his best fantasy average of his whole career and I don't really see him actually copying much of a tag. He'd still be super unique as well, Wines, wouldn't he?
00:30:24
Speaker
Super unique. He comes in at just 4% ownership in the last three games. He's not somehow a sexy name in fantasy circles, but remember his early days in the league, he was just one of the most talked about players, up and coming players. But I think it's just that contested sort of brand of footy that he's usually playing. He's really getting a bit more cheap all these days as well and getting a bit more of those
00:30:48
Speaker
big statistical games that probably he started to do at the end of last year and really came home strong as well. Yeah, so at Port what they've basically done this year and what they've tried to do is not try to recreate Ollie Wines. Ollie Wines is good at what Ollie Wines is good at and he's basically reverted to basics and he's very, very good
00:31:10
Speaker
at the role that he was meant to play, what he was drafted as. So I think that's finally happening. He's in the, in the absolute prime of his career. I imagine he's about 26 years old all he wants now. So love that as unique. Love that. Yep. I think that's a super unique and with a lower score of 70, I actually don't think he's going to hurt you this year. It's only tough to pay that price now. That's all.
00:31:32
Speaker
If you got the coin, then I don't mind doing it. Just a little bit cheaper, just quickly. Hasn't been in great form either, but you know it's going to flick eventually. Just like Jordan de Gogh did, mind you. Connor Rosie. Yeah. So he's been, he's had a few injury troubles this year, but just recently Ken Hinkley has said, look, we're trying to get him going. We need to just get him into some form. He's going to get in the guts. You know, he's going to have a go. Eventually that's going to click. And at his price, I think he's about 400
00:32:01
Speaker
80k if you can get on at the right time then then he's a rip a pick Yeah, it's been it's been a strange one for Rosie, but I agree with you It's got a flip at some point and maybe just monitor especially with Geelong this week. Maybe you don't have to go this week He's got then Gold Coast Sydney Hawthorne. Maybe that's the stretch you can if he shows some signs against the cats maybe going after that Yeah, yeah, I think so. He'll still be 500k or thereabouts. He's still
00:32:28
Speaker
You know, he's under 500k right now 492 Break even of 87 still way a week and yeah wait away jump on when the waves, right? I reckon you're onto something there, Lou
00:32:38
Speaker
Next up we got Brandon Ellis. Now I thought I'd better chuck this guy in just to pay a bit of respect because I think his first seven games or something it was the highest averaging player in the comp or something ridiculous. Right now he's 720K. If he can recapture some of that same form at the start of the year then he's actually value right now. So you got to take a good look at him I think.
00:32:59
Speaker
Yeah are you worried coming into wet season that he you know lose some of those plus sixes or I mean we don't see that the heat from AFL level players these guys are they're on the most pristine grounds around as well he'll still get his plus sixes but are you concerned at all and especially given he dropped off previously compared to his early season form.
00:33:20
Speaker
Oh, with a play like Brandon Ellis, you always have to be concerned because those are the types of players that can drop a 140, but they can just as quickly turn around and drop you a 70. And like you said, that can be off the back of just having six less marks in the week previous. Pretty tough schedule. I think I'm an avoid for Ellis, but I don't mind him as a pod as well, especially if he can reproduce his early season. Oh, for sure. That's it. And next up, we've got Jack Bowes, who should be coming back.
00:33:48
Speaker
into some good form soon. I think he went down a couple of weeks ago with a cork he was at, Dossi? I think it was a hammy. I believe it was a hamstring. So I'll just have a look on. Yeah, he's so he was listed one week away, though, with his hamstring last week. So you're right. He should be on track for a return in round 13. So hopefully just keep an eye on him just in case he does get a setback. You'd expect him to be back this week, though. He was in the frame to be a top six defender.
00:34:17
Speaker
He was, and he's got a very high breakeven, so I'm not saying jump on this week. You certainly could if you're back in his scoring. I wouldn't, but at 135 breakeven, priced at 659k, you might be able to get jackbows under 600k very, very soon. What do I will say about that?
00:34:34
Speaker
is just monitor the kick ins on his return because much like Jordan Ridley in his early season, Bose has had a very large percentage of the kick ins on offer at the Suns. There's been a few guys getting him, but he's been had the bulk of those.
00:34:50
Speaker
Does Lakosius though, he's really hit a ripping vein of form in the last few weeks with Bowes out. Do they keep Lakosius in defence now given how well he's played and maybe those two split it? That's all I'd be concerned about, is if those two share the duties and we get a situation like a Ridley sharing with Heppel and Redmond, sort of those kicking duties and a bit of the distribution as well.
00:35:10
Speaker
Oh, they might share it a little bit, but I'd be surprised if it swung too heavily because there was clearly an effort to bring Jack Lakosius up the ground at the start of the year. And there was clearly a game plan for Gold Coast Suns to control the ball into defensive 50. That was without Jack Lakosius. They were planning this. And Jack Bose, like you said, he was one of the main men down there. So I think we could see him just slot back into that exact same role.
00:35:35
Speaker
and we continue to see Lakos just get developed up on a wing. Yeah, Boaz will be super cheap in a couple of weeks, that's for sure. Bringing up next is Matty Rau. I don't know when he comes back, but I'm not so... Projected round 13 to come back this coming after his buy. So have a look at him. Have a look at him because we saw that as a first year player, he came in an average, what, 105 or something across his first four games before, unfortunately, going down for the shoulder injury. It would be great to see him back this week if he plays.
00:36:04
Speaker
I'm keen to see him back out there. I was watching Gold Coast games because of Matt Rau. Yeah. I'd never done that before. Even Isaac Rankin. By the way, remember what he did last time? Matt Rau. I remember what he did last time after having a significant break in the season. Now, the last time it was COVID, it wasn't injury affected. But remember how he improved from round one to round two in his first year. I wonder if this time off, he's just gone and absolutely gone crazy on the rehab. And gee, it'll be good to see him back out there beast mode.
00:36:33
Speaker
Next up, Mitch Duncan. I don't think we have to expand too much on this. He was in ripper form before getting knocked out a couple of weeks ago, and I think once he returns back to that team, he's going to go thereabouts. Probably not as high, but he's going to be a top eight midfielder for the rest of the year when he's fit.
00:36:50
Speaker
Could you go early on a player like him? He's too expensive as I need to go early. With his breakeven. What's his breakeven dose? I'll let you know right now. It is $153k and he's $845k. It's expensive.
00:37:06
Speaker
What I will say is that Mitch Duncan can go 130 quite easily. In fact, I reckon he did it about five or six times before he got injured. So, even though you're paying 845K, wait a week, you might only be saving yourself 15K and you might actually leave, you know, 10, 15 points on the table going somewhere else. So, no, I think you can go early on Mitch Duncan.
00:37:32
Speaker
He's got a fairly ripping run as well, home. Probably the next couple of weeks aren't the easiest, but after that, it's looking ripper. But yeah, Duncan's one of my massive targets. Just the price tag's really hard, and I'm sure it's hard for a lot of people out there to afford the Mitch Duncan, but he's going to be a fantastic pod on the run home. Next up, got Dangerfield. I think we already spoke a little bit about Danger. Yeah, we're going to wait, but just have a look at the roll. We know what he does as a forward. Obviously, Danger's going to be top six. Yeah.
00:38:02
Speaker
Next up we got Higgins and Parfitt. So under the one cloud here, that's mostly because I think that they're going to have similar scoring moving forwards. And I think that they're both similarly going to be affected by some of these midfielders reentering the Geelong team. So I do like what they're able to do and potentially they're under priced and real point of differences in the forward line. I'd be very hesitant, but I think these are two that you could consider.
00:38:31
Speaker
Yeah, I'd agree there. They're both. Now, we got hit up on Twitter, by the way. Is it point of differences or points of difference? I reckon the point of difference. When it's more than one, though, point points, they are point of differences or points of difference. What does it have to be more than one?
00:38:56
Speaker
Does it have to be plural? I don't know. That's almost Dawson's dilemma right there. Call me real off guard right there. We'll have to sit down and think about that for a bit.
00:39:06
Speaker
I think we might. We'll move on, mate. We'll move on to the next option. We'll move on to the next one. Titch. Yeah. Are you concerned at all? We talked about him maybe last. No. No. What's the concern? Why are we concerned over Titch, Doss? Because we've just heard about a bloke demanding a four-year contract as a mid-season draft dean that's about to take his spot in the midfield, mate. No, I am concerned just about the fact that
00:39:33
Speaker
If this is a rebuild, which it's looking 100% like that, I don't, they're not going to go kill teach with a 90% time on ground, 90% center bounce attendances, which I've said before. That was what he was kind of attending in his high day of one 20 plus if they're going to give him.
00:39:50
Speaker
Like the last game he played, they played him under 80% time on ground, which was just a shock to me. I haven't seen that really from Titch. I doubt he would have done that this year. I'd have to check, but I reckon that was his season low time on ground. And that was in the sort of turning point where it was like, all right, we're stuffed here. Let's just put the cue in the rack kind of thing. I'm just concerned there might be that case this year with them. And if that's the case, then Titch probably might get put away in a few games.
00:40:19
Speaker
I think if that were the case, it stems from Titch being sore and maybe not as fit as what he's felt like in previous seasons, but I don't think they're necessarily shutting up shop, going into rebuild mode and putting their best midfielder on ice. So I don't agree with that at all. I think if anything, historically we've seen that the best fantasy players actually do come from poorer sites because they're able to just beat up on every team because there's no one giving them attention because they're getting thumped. Look at Tom Rockliffe.
00:40:49
Speaker
back in the Brisbane days. 190, no attention at all. So that's the argument I'd make in that case. At the end of the day, do you think Tom Mitchell isn't going to average 110?
00:40:59
Speaker
Well, let's go 105 because I think he's at about 110 now. He's at 105 right now. So do you reckon he can go 105 for the rest of the season? I think 105, but if you're bringing him in, he's probably not as much value as he was, yes. Yeah. By the way, I say this is a liability though, Dos. I say this is a Tom Mitchell owner that copped a 70 odd as captain the other week. So just keep that in the back of your mind. Still, obviously it's Tom Mitchell. He's an absolute beast.
00:41:28
Speaker
This is a thing with you. You were quite ready to trade out Zach Merritt after he's 67 as well. Well, let's put it this way. Last time he got a 70 this season. It was a 71 in round three against Geelong. He bounced back for a 120 the next week, Tom Mitchell. So two scores under
00:41:47
Speaker
85 in his last three weeks though. That's just a slight concern for me anyway. Just to concede a bit, he didn't set the world on fire last year either until the back half. So we'll see what happens there. Next up, his teammate Warple. I don't like it as much. He's on this list because there's not a lot of relevant players coming off the round 12 buy that we can inject into our fantasy teams. But obviously he's shown some relevance when Jager Amir is not in the side.
00:42:17
Speaker
Because of that I'd be hesitant to actually jump on Yeah, but I'd monitor that situation too because at his price once again James Walpole gets the role has the scoring and you've got the upside Yeah, just so tentative with any Hawthorn players to be honest with how poor they are And if they can't hold on to possession, but if they if they can suddenly then yeah, they're all kind of options really
00:42:39
Speaker
Yeah, all the Hawks guys kind of feel like 70s and 80s, don't they? Nothing really spectacular besides Titch, of course. So we'll move on to Chad Wingard, finally, last Hawk there. As a forward, we've seen when he gets the role, you always have to look at Chad Wingard. He's someone that can average a hundred over multiple, multiple weeks. So have a look at that. And then over to GWS, we've got, and this is the most relevant team coming off
High Ceiling Players and Mid-Season Adjustments
00:43:07
Speaker
the round 12. Absolutely. Let's be honest.
00:43:10
Speaker
Taranto, if you don't have him, he's obviously an option. I think he's just done what every coach that started him expected him to do and why you could argue that all coaches or all good coaches rather have him and you shouldn't trade him in, I actually think Tim Taranto's quite comfortably a top eight midfielder so anytime you can get him in, I'd be happy with that. Whitfield?
00:43:34
Speaker
Obviously, I mean, this is a bloke that can go 192. His ceiling is just out of this world and that's something that you have to chase with the GWS picture. Holy hell. Yeah, it's amazing the next month anyway. Just flagging, Bailey Scott ran from North Melbourne, you know, obviously,
00:43:55
Speaker
the seller dweller in the competition, you want to get you guys against him. We've seen a few big studs not score great, including Titch, who popped an 84 against North Melbourne. They tagged, they went out of their way North Melbourne to tag Brad Hill using Bailey Scott as a, who's an elite endurance athlete. Strange player to tag. Brad Hill. Kept Brad Hill to a 20 odd, which is only 10 under 20 odd based on form.
00:44:25
Speaker
My point being though, if they're going to go with that theory, does Whitfield, is Whitfield the man in the firing line for the Bayley Scott tag? And if this Bayley Scott tag is not just a one week wonder against a man out of form, is that something to be concerned about in your first game to booing for your team? And I don't really, I'm not saying wait a week cause gosh, like it's witty, but it's a concern.
00:44:46
Speaker
Do you wait a week? I don't know. I mean, do you think he's going to get tagged because potentially he goes 120 and you've jumped at shadows the same time. Maybe you've indicated and he goes, you know, 70 or 80 at the same time. I think I don't see Whitfield dishing up such a poor score that you're going to be upset about paying 750 K for him next week. I mean, what does he go? What would you be seriously disappointed with from Whitfield?
00:45:14
Speaker
Oh, like seriously, forget your 75s. That's just whatever. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. Probably a 50 or something would be terrible. That's not going to happen. Yeah. I love it. He's my, I think he's actually genuinely my favorite AFL player. His scoring is ridiculous because he'll be on, he'll be on 20 for two quarters. Yeah. And then bang 76 points in six minutes of game time. Yep. Ridiculous. Get around him.
00:45:40
Speaker
Next up, we've got Josh Kelly. We've spoken enough about Josh Kelly over the last few weeks. Every coach has. He's obviously an option. He's expensive now. He's not expensive, expensive. But compared to a couple of weeks ago, he certainly is. But jump on board, he's going to be a top six. Probably top two forward from here on in. His team mate, Hopper.
00:46:00
Speaker
What do you think of Jacob Hopper, Dossie? A listener tweeted us saying, what do you think of him as a point of difference option? And yeah, looking at the numbers, you've got to agree that he is a significant pod. He's certainly one of those names that a bit like Olly Wines, more of the contested inside guy that probably won't get the love from fantasy coaches because he sometimes doesn't go out and get the cheap stuff as well as like a Kelly or a Whitfield.
00:46:28
Speaker
but his numbers are stacking up with some of the best mids in the comp in his last few games. I couldn't do it personally but I don't know about you Louie.
00:46:36
Speaker
I think he's probably outpriced himself by being in such good form, but he's someone as a point of difference you could look at. This is someone who's gone 1.13 in their last three. He's owned by 0.5% of the competition. And I know he's a bit of a contested ball, but he's gotten on the end of some marks in previous weeks. So whether or not that's just a chance or whether that's been an actual effort to go out and get them, I'm not sure. Certainly a pod pod pod.
00:47:05
Speaker
definitely throw him out. Just quickly, Steven Canelio, whenever he returns, he's always an option. Finally, Nick Haines. Massive, massive option this week. He's 446 K dos. Ludicrous, isn't it? Having had the role change at the start of the year to go with a massive injury affected score.
00:47:25
Speaker
I think he's a great option. Lock and load. He'll come in for me this week. Yeah? Yeah. Okay. Perfect. Because it's too easy for me to get Nick Haynes up from a rookie. It's just too easy. You're $445K. If you've got $120K in your bank and a half that in a rookie, you get there.
00:47:44
Speaker
that's it and that's where it for me thinking about a Whitfield tag for instance has me thinking like you know i can get a Nick Haynes this week he's got a 67 break even odd just get the witty next week because i don't think he's not oh that's that's a tough thing like we didn't burn you with a 192 so anyway i love Haynes as an option though
00:48:09
Speaker
And just finally we'll finish up with North who on the other end of the spectrum compared to GWS probably. Uh, Jai Simpkin and Taryn Thomas purely because Jai Simpkin's a midfielder, he's underpriced and Taryn Thomas is turning into a midfielder. He's got forward status and he's only about 490k so we've been told by him. Oh look at those guys.
00:48:27
Speaker
We've been told by Heff, it's Taran. Taran Thomas. We have to get that right for our boy Heff. He's been getting on our backs for that one. So Taran Thomas. Yeah, one of the leading center bounce of 10 days for the last few weeks. Sit up and take notice. Yeah, that's definitely a point of difference for you there. All right, I love that, Louis. That's all the targets for round 12. It's time for Show Me The Money. Show me the money! Show me the money!
00:48:53
Speaker
Show me the money, Lou, who have you got for us this week? Alright, Doss, so I've got a quick fire five for you. These are all players that I can see playing next week and who I don't mind based in terms of their break-even and job security. So, just straight off the bat, Trent Bianco, probably the last week you can get on him before he starts getting really expensive.
00:49:15
Speaker
if you can get on Trent, Ned Reeves obviously if named he has to be a player that you bring in he's going to make you probably 100k over the next couple of weeks so have a look at him and may even be able to help you out on that round 14 buy if you're heavy in the ruck department, Joe Amity also a ruckman
00:49:32
Speaker
round 14 by so it's a little bit awkward but i do like his bfl scoring and he looked good at afl level too so don't mind that josh tracy i'm massive on josh tracy the only reason i've got him at number four here is because he's a bit more expensive than amity so uh with that round 14 by also i'm just splitting hairs there finally matt roses i know nothing about matt roses he's about 180k i've never seen him play
00:49:56
Speaker
but I know he's getting games. So it's a pretty, pretty thin list based on job security. Sorry, based on rookies coming off that round 12 by, but he's one that maybe you could consider. Yeah, probably go. I mean, if you include Meek maybe in there, but he's so highly owned already, I guess that's why you go against him.
Emerging Players and Debut Performances
00:50:15
Speaker
Well, are you going, are you going Reeves?
00:50:20
Speaker
After Make? Reeves before Make. Yeah, that's what I mean. I just mean instead of a Rosas who's sort of fringe job security, you might get three or four weeks out of Make with really good job security and fattening you up enough. But again, he's probably more expensive than Rosas, but I don't trust him. I don't mind that. I just want to chuck him there. Won't score you much.
00:50:42
Speaker
I've just got some more from prezzies from the rezzies, so players that haven't played yet or are looking to return and one from the mid-season draft, so thanks to Hef for these numbers, you can find these numbers on keeperleaguepod.com.au. Connor West in his first game for the Eagles, he's been playing for a different side in the waffle, but he had 29 disposals, 6 marks, 7 tackles and 132 AFL fantasy points on his debut for West Coast, so
00:51:10
Speaker
Louis, with a bunch of Gun Eagle mids out, including Shuey, Kelly, maybe just monitored Dom Sheehy, hurt his shoulder a little bit in the game as well. He played on, but I just monitored that. They could give him a crack. Absolutely they could. And the rookies that they're bringing in, which West Coast just, they have all these midfielder rookies I've never even heard of. They're not doing that in the waffle.
00:51:32
Speaker
No, and this guy's 22 years old, mature age, so at least he's got a ready-made body. It sounds like he's probably already carrying their twos, because I know they're getting belted every single week. They are. So yes, he is carrying their twos, came out and was probably bogged. I didn't check the best part. So he might get one more game in the waffle this week, have the buy, and then see where we go with that.
00:51:52
Speaker
Yeah. Luke Edwards looked good by the way too. He was, yeah. He played pretty well. Lloyd Meek, in that case, would Edwards be up there for your rookies or just the fragile job security for you staying alone? Yeah, it was fragile for me. That was the only reason. Just because I think there's no midfielders in that side.
00:52:11
Speaker
I'm worried as soon as one comes back. I mean, so probably the last in goes first out. But yeah, he's probably one that I've overlooked over Matt Roses. I reckon you could put in Edwards first. Lloyd Meek smashed it in the in the waffle. 102 fantasy points, massive hit out numbers.
00:52:28
Speaker
Surely a straight swap for Sean Darcy is what we think. Luke Peddler has actually had six games in a row now at sample level there, building form, 23 disposal, seven marks, five tackles for 95 AFL fantasy points. He's a bit more expensive, but when he gets in, you reckon he's going to have a solid run at it, much like Berry did early in the season. High pick, highly rated. Peddler could be a fantastic option.
00:52:53
Speaker
Yeah, I heard really good things about Peddler, so it's tough to pay 250K off of that. I think that will put him at a sort of 35, slightly inflated break even, so you can wait a week. And if he goes bang, then jump on. And really quickly, just a few more from the mid-season draft. John Newcomb, the second pick in the draft, the bloke we talked about before, he's averaging 23 disposals and a 105 AFL fantasy points for Boxhill.
00:53:16
Speaker
If he plays all aboard that one, Lou? He'll play. Ned Moyle, if he plays, would you? I think I'm going to just avoid that until I see him. Yeah, I wouldn't be touching him. Jackson Callow just mentioning him because Stado's had a bit to do with him, I think, and he wanted to let us know to watch out for Jackson Callow. So just for the statesmen there, we've kept that one in there.
00:53:39
Speaker
But if you do want all those sample VFL waffle numbers, also the mid-season draft numbers, support our sponsors at keepaligpod.com.au. And once you've signed up for Pod Pod Plus as well, you can go the extra mile and become an extra, well, become a member of the whole lot there.
Community Engagement and Strategy Adjustments
00:53:56
Speaker
So head over there, get the breakout tracker, advanced center bounce attendances, weekly projections, and all those state league fantasy scores. Louis, onto the listener questions.
00:54:13
Speaker
All right, before we get to our questions, Dossie, you got a couple of reviews on Apple Podcasts here trying to win those career savers that you've so generously offered up. First one we've got from Langman13, top job you champions. Great listening to those guys have a good pod in fantasy. And now someone has bought it to us. Love listening to it at work or home. Keep up the great pod pods. I promise I can speak English. It's a little bit tough to read out.
00:54:40
Speaker
some reviews when they don't have grammar. Thank you very much Langley. That's great mate. Goats love the pod pod legends hashtag observable thirst. Perfect. We love it guys. Thank you very much. Keep getting in those reviews because you could save your career with a size 12 pair of career saves. They're still up for grabs. What do we say? 220 ratings, which was still a fair way off, but we will get there one day and hopefully we can do it before they head up on eBay so I can get some money. You kick four goals on the weekend toss.
00:55:10
Speaker
Oh, you're too right I did. Too right I did. We'll get onto the questions from Twitter and we are at Pod Pod AFL on Twitter. We're also on Facebook and there's a few questions on Facebook that we'll get to soon, but these ones from Twitter. Miller time.
00:55:25
Speaker
Round 14 is problematic now with Zorko suspended and all his Tigers out. It's big Shawnee Darcy to Latham's a good trade. He's then re-corrected himself. He forgot the license suspension. Do you like English is the other one that he likes.
00:55:41
Speaker
Yeah, look, I prefer English a lot more than laddoms. I've got my own personal problems with English, but yeah, in that scenario, I'm going English for Miller. I would say Stado picked him up last week and I reckon got a little bit blessed because he was getting, Steph Martin was taking majority the ruck. He wasn't really playing that well when he went in there. If he does come good though, you know, he's probably, we looked at the options at the start of the show and there wasn't too many on that buy, really, was there?
00:56:10
Speaker
No, no. Yep. So struggle there for Miller time. Hopefully the start of the show helped you out with your rock options there. Row on the boat. We all know Whitfield and Kelly are great buyers this week from round 12 players. Who would you recommend from the sub 700 K players? So we had a few options there, but who's your favorite one? Mine's mine's Dan Houston.
00:56:31
Speaker
sub 700k uh i don't really have a favorite dos uh i like a lot of these players you catch me off guard a little bit here sub 700k i like nick haines the best i guess oh yeah so nick haines and dan houston's out there
00:56:46
Speaker
Yeah, trying to think desperately of a player in the 700s. No, that's a perfect one. So that's under 700. Okay, this next trade question, or this next question, sorry, comes from Craig. Do I field 19 this round and trade Jordan to Josh Kelly or downgrade a bench rookie to Amity? Is it Amity? Yeah. Amity, Amity. I won't fight you over it. And field 20. The first option should also mean fielding 18 in round 14 before trades.
00:57:14
Speaker
Well, I guess I'd say, does your premiums on field change at all? If the 18th player is still a rookie, then I wouldn't worry about it. I'd go in with 19. Otherwise, yeah, I'd be happy going with 19 in that scenario, I think.
00:57:33
Speaker
Mark Allen with getting rookies off the field with one up and one down or two down and one ups. Do we need to invest in rookies with greater job security, but a high price someone like, um, lucky Jones for port to continue to generate cash and like Patty Dow Mark or do a Hail Mary and grab a cheap rookie with uncertain job security.
00:57:55
Speaker
Um, it's tough because in two weeks time, my advice would change based on often the backend rookies don't matter as much. They sit on your bench while you field a full team of premiums and make a little bit of cash. But right now, because you're in the buy rounds and you need these guys playing, I actually do like paying up for a little bit of extra job security and lucky Jones is someone I've looked at this week. So for example, you might go Jacob Kuzitzky.
00:58:21
Speaker
down to Locky Jones, free up 60K. I know it's not amazing, but at least you know they're still gonna be there making cash. Yeah, that's a great point. I have, yeah, I slightly considered him just slightly out of my price bracket, but don't mind that mark just to get that bit of extra job security. This one from T, Duncan or Whitfield.
00:58:41
Speaker
Whitfield. Whitfield for me as well, but I do love Duncan as a pod. Just the price difference there. It's nearly, it's basically a hundred K for Whitfield right now. Duncan second, get witty first, wait for Duncan to drop a little bit. Big price difference, but there's going to be a big swing in ownership too. So Duncan obviously will be a lot more of a bigger point of difference.
00:59:01
Speaker
Matt, how important is it to ensure DPP premiums end up in the weakest line? So if he brings in Whitfield, should he aim to shift him back ASAP or is it fine to leave him in the mids and end up with other top six defenders' premiums?
00:59:15
Speaker
Umm, oh I guess you have to make that call if you think that you like six defenders particularly and you also like Locky Whitfield and he's in your midfield then that's fine. I mean as long as your top six defenders are scoring well it doesn't really matter where they play.
00:59:33
Speaker
Yeah it doesn't matter I understand what he's saying though because obviously midfielders traditionally score better so top eight midfielder is going to be scoring potentially 10 points more than the top six defender. Yes but also at the same time we select defenders and forwards based on the fact that they do play midfield so that gap
00:59:49
Speaker
often isn't as big as we think it obviously is when you look at the 10th best forward and the 10th best defender compared to the 10th best midfielder or even 20th best midfielder but overall those top few defensive and forward players like a Locky Whitfield
01:00:05
Speaker
do score on par with midfielders, if not better. And I'd also just judge on value what you've got available for those value picks in your midfield line. Like we can't find someone with the value of Nick Haynes, in my opinion, in those 400K bracket right now. And you can in the defensive line. This is what we said last week. So if you've got 700K, you can choose to bring in, let's say, Bailey Smith last week for whatever price. Let's say he was 680K. I think he was a bit less than that. But you could also choose still side bottom.
01:00:35
Speaker
Now let's say they're averaging the exact same. One's a forward. And that splits it straight away because you know he's closer to being top in that line than what I am here.
01:00:48
Speaker
So they could foreseeably be a keeper, whereas the other, even if they do continue to average the same, there's always going to be someone better that you can get up to. Next question from Nick. Best low ownership trade targets coming off the buy. He's got Wines, Ral, Tar and Thomas, and even Carl Aemon as Pod Pod Pods. Yeah, pretty much that whole list that I listed off.
01:01:11
Speaker
massive point of differences right in there. What about Karl Amon's probably the extra one we didn't touch on. Yeah, love it. Love it. He's a bit of an awkward price, but he's getting centre-bounce attendances, which is something we hadn't seen from Karl Amon previously. He's been stuck on a wing, so to speak, but perhaps with just some of the magnets that they've lost over the past two months, Paul, they've decided to try something new.
01:01:34
Speaker
That being said, Aemon was flagged to play center bounces in the pre-season too. So yeah, he's a good point of difference. And I think a couple of weeks ago, he went like 96 in the first half. Yeah, it was nuts. He only ended up at about 110, but if he can put two and two together.
01:01:52
Speaker
A huge. Anthony Allul, he wants to know our thoughts on Ollie Wines, we love it. Kyle, Travis Boak an option? Yes, he is. You're saying yes to a lot of Port players, that's not just the Port, the per, what's it, the Aqua blood running through you, mate? I've said yes to most players tonight, actually, because everyone's an option in the buy rounds. I don't know what your team looks like. I don't even know what I'm doing with my team right now.
01:02:18
Speaker
So all these players that we talk about, there's always something worthwhile chasing. It's the negative stuff that you have to sort of...
01:02:27
Speaker
Dodge, dive, duck. That was the buzzword this week. But no, I don't mind it. Brendo, guys, rate the rookies for the next two weeks, which we've already done, and Amati's job security versus Max Lynch. Oh, Amati. Easily. Easily. What we flagged is he's taken Cal Sinclair, who I couldn't get the names out of my mouth before, and Hayden McLean.
01:02:52
Speaker
He should slot into that role. You know, young player horse has given them the chance this year, the young players to give him, give him a crack played. Well, didn't do anything wrong to get out of the side. Can players that hit out ruckman as well as playing as a capable forward? So I think he's a really nice option at 200 K and what's the play for remaining buyers with the Richmond versus West coast Eagles change. So we'll have to wait and see, I guess, what we get to us.
01:03:18
Speaker
To be honest with you, I haven't thought about it much because I just haven't gotten any official word. Yeah, we'll wait and see, and then we'll let you know when we have our next podcast. Unfortunately, we'll probably be next week or on the Twitters. We might jump on there. On the Wednesday, Pod Pod Plus. That's right, Pod Pod Plus. Jump on board. Johnny Vogan from Facebook. I've held Grundy. Stay strong or trade.
01:03:38
Speaker
Look, it's tough now because you've held him one week. He's only gone for two more, presumably. You've got 115 points sitting on the bench for the next two weeks, though. So if you think that you can improve that and still formulate a plan to bring Grumby back in, then yes, I'm team trade. But
01:04:00
Speaker
I think some clever coaches could figure out a way to hold Grundy and actually come out on top. I'm really interested to see who plays it best, because I think it's a real competition winning move. Yeah, I'd probably still rock. I'd probably stay strong if I've still got him, to be honest. Yeah, because he's still got him, you'd almost. I feel like you're just going to miss one more go at him now. Yeah, it would depend on your bar structure. You wouldn't want to go in with 18 this week and have four of those big rookies.
01:04:28
Speaker
I think if you buy structure is fine and you can somehow weasel away to hold him. And that was the thing we said from the start. Yeah, definitely. Josh, love your work boys. Thanks Josh. I failed the rookie roulette this week trading in O'Connor of Adelaide. Any tips to consider when trading in rookies? So I think we've just gone with that. You know, look at the roles that are available in the teams.
01:04:49
Speaker
It's the best you can do like it is sometimes the roulette we've guessed and got it wrong many times this year It's roulette. Yeah, so you just got to look at things like scoring at VFL scoring at state league level. Yeah scoring at junior level
01:05:05
Speaker
Age, position, opportunity. Definitely opportunity and role available at the club. Like you look at say West Coast, there's that many injuries there right now. There might conceivably be a role for a couple of these West Coast guys for two, three, four weeks. And that can sometimes be enough to hold you in the side as well, which is why I kind of liked a couple of West Coast guys. But again, there's probably a
01:05:27
Speaker
a limit to that where they're also going to be outside within three to four weeks. So would you prefer to go an option from a team that's struggling in a, you know, North or Hawthorne who bring in a rookie and look like they're going to play the kids a bit more too? I mean, there's so many factors going in those and that. Yeah. Firstly, does speaking a lot about West Coast players there, to be honest.
01:05:49
Speaker
Mighty Weagles, mate. Stuart, for those near the pointy end, do we go early on a Duncan or wait that extra week? Also, who to trade first, a Whitfield, Cumming or Markov, who both have tasty matchups this week, or frustrating primos like your Caleb Daniels or Ridley? Hashtag observable first. All right, there's a lot to process there, Dossie. So what was that first part?
01:06:15
Speaker
The first part was for those near the pointy end, do we go early on a Duncan or wait the extra week? If you can afford to go early on Duncan and you're at the pointy end, then yeah, I almost would. That's a real massive point of difference on the rest of the competition. What about your rule coming off KOs though? Well, it wasn't a rule. It was with Team English he missed four weeks and each week was just as a mystery as the next. So at least with Duncan, if you know he's coming back,
01:06:43
Speaker
Then there's no lasting issues or as Tim English was three weeks later. Oh, he's not quite ready yet, you know. And the other question was coming on Markov, which one do you trade first? Both have nice match ups this week. Oh, I probably, oh, jeez, sorry.
01:07:00
Speaker
All those premiums like Caleb Daniel Ridley, that was the second one. Nah, I wouldn't trade the premiums. So you'd be trading the Cummings and the Markovs. I'd still be looking at those guys. Really splitting hairs here. I'm not sure what the scoring of the Gold Coast backline is like still. I'd be dumping Markov first. He doesn't take any kick-ins whatsoever and has to build his score entirely around the ground. So that's where I'm going.
01:07:22
Speaker
Yeah well maybe you're right there I think it's a bit more of a 50-50 I think as blokes like Locky Whitfield do get going a little bit I think that does affect coming but yeah I think yeah you're probably right there Doss coming just
01:07:39
Speaker
Peter Tabard. Love the pod pod. Thanks Peter. I'm leading my work lead by 280 points but there are teams starting to make ground need a couple of point of differences that will go 120 plus for the rest of the year. Cheers. Already have scrimshaw.
01:07:55
Speaker
So, 120 plus. He's got the guy that I was going to say. 120 plus. 120 plus for the rest of the year. I mean, is there anyone that's going to do that? Let alone point of difference is, uh, Stato. Louis. Stato.
01:08:12
Speaker
Yeah look, that's 120 plus is a lot to ask of. I think Grundy is probably someone who would go 120 plus when he comes back. Just point of differences. That's what I'm saying. We just mentioned Ollie Wines, maybe he's probably up there. He could go 120. 110 plus, you know.
01:08:31
Speaker
Yeah, it's a really tricky question. Jack Steele, even though he's 10%, is quite unique. We always talk about the Jared Lyons of the world. They're always really unique. They're always 3%.
Player Relevance and Trade Strategies
01:08:42
Speaker
You can take a part on that. Jared Lyons switching it around as well, by the way. He's almost forcing your hand to be fantasy relevant. I know he is, but he's forcing your hand to pick him at this point, I think.
01:08:54
Speaker
Christian Petrarca, he's priced at $740k, he could go $120k quite easily, so could Callum Mills. Yeah, alright, there you go, there's a few options. Brad Harrison, I did it last week with Mills and Whitfield in for Grundy and Arook, semi failed with O'Connor though. Should we be looking at both round 11 by players as well as the blue dots currently to trade in given the fixture updates, i.e. go early on Hunter, Bont, Parrish, those sort of guys?
01:09:23
Speaker
Yeah that's all part of the strategy so you just got to weigh up how many players on field and which week, because this is an underrated part of buy strategies, which week you can actually make an effort to go a little bit light so that you can attack a buy around really hard, you know what I mean?
01:09:41
Speaker
For me, this week, it was, okay, I can get aggressive with some of my trades because 17 of my 18 players are not rookies this week, so I can make some adjustments. So that's where I'd be looking at it, I think, Doss. Matthew, with the final question, best targets to trade five and Darcy too, not a fun first week of the buys. That's a tough, tough week one.
01:10:07
Speaker
Yeah, might have to get back to Matt on Twitter with that one. Yeah, some options. Yeah, plenty of
Conclusion and Future Content
01:10:13
Speaker
options we've mentioned today, like your Whitfield, go like a Whitfield and Reeves via a bit of DPP action, something like that would be probably the way to go. All right, well, that's another episode of the Point of Difference podcast. Thanks very much for listening and we'll see you next week. See you next week.