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Let's talk DEFENDERS! Daicos, Docherty, Salem, Sicily, Yeo, Young, and more! | #PODPOD
174 Plays2 years ago
The lads are back recording a live episode together for the first time in 2023 with Dos, Lewy, Statesman, and Holmesy taking a look at some of the best defender options for your side!
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Transcript
00:00:02
Speaker
you
Introduction to AFL Fantasy Defenders
00:00:17
Speaker
Welcome to the Pod Pod. It's your boy, Dossi. We're back. Recording live on this Wednesday night, January 11th, 2023. We'll be talking all things AFL fantasy defenders. Arguably one of the toughest lines this year. But with me to talk through all of our defensive options, as always is the Pod Pod crew, Louis, Stato and Holmsey.
Opening Thoughts and Humor
00:00:42
Speaker
First up, Holmsey.
00:00:43
Speaker
Let's address the elephant in the room here. Fantasy opened. It's open now, lads. It is opened up just a few days ago, but within 45 minutes, they declared the winner. Dossie had already won the Hilux. Kyle, you disagree with this statement.
00:01:00
Speaker
Hey, Dossie. Nah, it's good to be here.
Challenges in Defenders Selection
00:01:02
Speaker
Looking forward to talking defenders, one of the tougher lines that I've seen so far in terms of finding some nice value players. But yeah, it is unfortunate that you've already seen to have won the comp. You know, I'm looking forward to coming second this year, but congratulations on the win. And yeah, it might see you in 2024. It doesn't seem like there's much point playing this year.
00:01:23
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, yeah, hopefully people still do listen along to the podcast and, you know, just pick a team for fun because that's all they will be playing for this year. But yeah, it's it's it is nice to get the dubs early. Louis, have you been playing around with the game? I'm sure you've.
00:01:38
Speaker
lot of work done out on the side or a bit of a scrolling on the on the website? Yeah, it's been a first week back at work. So it's been a little bit flat out, which maybe is a good thing because it has distracted me from playing around too much. But when the game does open, finally, I mean, I know we all have our spreadsheets and our notes and all that. But when the game does finally open, it does start to feel real. And it's
00:02:01
Speaker
It's pretty good fun to start putting together a team and start turning it upside down and figuring out what sort of structures you can have the upcoming season and really just doing whatever you like with it up until February when we have some actual data to go off of with those pre-season games.
00:02:22
Speaker
That's it. And a man that desperately, desperately needs to get in as much research as he possibly can at this time of year, toying around with his team, playing around with it, just to try and crack into that, I don't know, top 10,000. I mean, that's probably the stands we set from these days, but Stado, have you been enjoying messing around with your team?
00:02:43
Speaker
No, I haven't, Dossie. The AFL fantasy group have decided I'm too old and deactivated my account, unfortunately. And I think part of it is natural justice that if I can't defeat you, I shouldn't be playing.
00:03:00
Speaker
This is true. This is true. There was some rumors that Supercoach and Real Dream Team also reached out, said, look, we can't have you plan that game because it will take us away from the hours and hours you do spend on those games now because you know you have no chance in fantasy. All right, folks, we are going to get on to our talking about defenders. The way we're going to do it, we're going to just pick a couple of defenders ourselves and then we're going to throw it to the listeners who have sent in their requests and we're going to go through
00:03:27
Speaker
As much as we, as many as we can, we should get through all
Social Media and Sponsor Shoutout
00:03:30
Speaker
of them. We put it out there on Twitter at Pod Pod AFL. If you're not following us on there, jump on board this pre-season. We'll be putting out our requests for the next few weeks as we go through each of the different positions. But before we get going, I do want to let you know, as always, this episode of the Pod Pod is brought to you by the Keeper League Pod.
00:03:49
Speaker
So that's the website, keepaligepod.com. It's not just for your keepaligs though. Their website has a ton of resources to help with your classic teams this pre-season. And when the season goes too, because they get the CBA's, kicking trends, your draft D fantasy analysis, and all stuffed for drafts as well. So I know Heff, who is over at the keepalig, you probably know him.
00:04:10
Speaker
and you love him as well. And he's put out a Excel spreadsheet today with the best Excel spreadsheet going around for draft. So hit that up, go there and use the code PODPOD if you're going to become a member at Sign Up for 20% off. So get that link in the podcast description and up your game this pre-season. Let's start the pod though, two defenders each. Let's kick that off before we get to all the requests that we have. And let's start with Homsey. Who's your first defender you want to talk about?
Angus Brayshaw: Midfield Potential
00:04:41
Speaker
Yeah, boys, I thought I'd kick us off. So I'm going to start with Angus Brayshaw. And one of the reasons that I am keen to talk about him today, I know Stado has been on the record on the draft doctors and Louis Keene as well as Angus Brayshaw being someone that we should heavily consider for our fantasy squads. But I'm here to play a little bit of devil's advocate today. So we've got Angus Brayshaw. It's well documented that he moved into the midfield late in the season. So I believe it was in around 20, just after he signed his big contract.
00:05:10
Speaker
He went into the midfield for the last six games of the season. He averaged 106 for the four games in the regular season, which priced at 99 you would think that there's actually a little bit of upside there. But if we look a little bit deeper into the stats,
00:05:26
Speaker
We're going to include the two finals games because they were real games of football that were played. He scored a 66 and an 88, which actually brings his average down to 96. So I've been doing a little bit of research around this and I say I have, but a good mate of mine, John Hayne, in a group chat. So we've been looking at the scores that the midfielders score in each team. We looked at the last two years and we looked at the averages from the M1 to M3.
00:05:54
Speaker
You get the elite teams like Melbourne, Brisbane, the Dogs, they average sort of that 103 mark between your top three midfielders. And then it sort of goes down towards the mid 90s to early 90s for some of your lower teams. And I believe that if Angus Brayshaw isn't in the M1 to M3, I can't see him averaging over 100. And what we know is that his move into the midfield coincided with Petrarca moving forward.
00:06:19
Speaker
So if we see that continuing, there is a world where he's able to push into the 100s. But if he ends up being that M4 behind Oliver, Patraka and Viney, which there's a world, I find that very hard and I think he's probably going to average in the mid 90s. But Stado, what are your thoughts?
00:06:37
Speaker
I like brochure and have done all pre-season so far. I will say the main reason for that is the fact you've got a defender who's playing in the midfield, so therefore he's got those ceiling scores. I don't really take too much into finals because it is different footy and it is obviously generally different opposition and the way they go about it is slightly different.
00:07:07
Speaker
I don't get caught up too much in that, but look, I have been known in previous years, and you only have to look at last season with big Taz Thomas, that you can get caught up a little bit on how the season ends compared to what it is. So you have to see what his health and fitness is actually like. But if I see him as a full-time inside mid, I'm definitely very keen being under that 100 average
00:07:37
Speaker
to look at a D1 because right now, even though I understand the benefits of doing so, I don't really want to pay that extra coin for Doherty at this stage as a starting squad because I just don't see the upside.
00:07:54
Speaker
Yeah, I suppose my point is if you've got Clary Oliver going 110, which I'm sure we all agree, he'll be around that mark. You've got Petrarca, who when he's a full-time midfielder, he's that 105 to 110 as well. And then Vaini's just that mainstay in the midfield. Yeah, he doesn't get massive fantasy scores, but he eats up that sort of 70% CBAs and there's only so much ball to go around. So if I see Petrarca,
00:08:19
Speaker
If I see him getting that sort of 40 to 50% CBAs like he did towards the back end of the year and they're playing him more mid-forward, I think Angus Brayshore is a serious option. But if Petrarch is back in there and you only see Brayshore getting that sort of 40 to 50% mark, I'm going to be a little bit wary.
00:08:37
Speaker
Yeah, we are guessing. We are guessing. Sorry, Louis. We are guessing at this stage of the year. The thing I look on the football side for the Melbourne Football Club is they struggle forward. And Patraka can be the one that puts the scoreboard pressure on.
00:08:55
Speaker
He is a player that, if he does have the role though, could quickly get away from us to start the season. So, I think back to a couple of years ago, I think it was, well it was Josh Dunkley, I can't remember what year it was, but there were quite a few people on the fence. He ended up being about 25% owned and then just absolutely started like a house on fire and it took six weeks for some coaches to be able to get him in and by then he was already behind the pack.
00:09:22
Speaker
He's one of those players with that frightening ceiling could really bite you, but I think the points you make are really valid, Kyle, and he might struggle if he is the fourth midfielder.
00:09:34
Speaker
All right, I think I don't have too much more to add on that. Gussie Braeshaw was in my team last year. Yeah, enjoyed the run. And I think it's just a strong pre-season watch for all of us here. But Holmsey is just putting up that warning flag, just beware, and make sure he's in that solid role. Would it just take an Amy Series game for you, Holmsey, to see he's in that role and you'll be fit and far and keen to pick him yourself?
00:09:57
Speaker
Oh, if I see it in that one pre-season game, that's going to be a pretty good indication of how Melbourne plan to line up. The one thing I am wary of, and we didn't mention this off the top, but he's actually been in the rehab group and he's not currently training with the full score either. So he's going to be coming off a limited pre-season, which can make it hard to begin with anyway. And that's more of a concern for me.
00:10:20
Speaker
Couple red flags to keep an eye on, but also on the watch list for everyone as well by the sounds. Louis, take us through a player you want to talk about.
Sam Docherty: Reliable Defensive Pick
00:10:27
Speaker
Yeah, mine is one that Stado mentioned just before and that's Sam Docherty. He really doesn't need an introduction pretty much since he made his debut. He's been a bit of a fantasy stud, had those two years out the game, came back and pretty much just picked up where he left off.
00:10:45
Speaker
um 2021 obviously had the 98 average and then 2022 backed it up again right up to 110 um but you break it down and like this guy was just mr reliable mr consistent all year so 110 average seven games over 120 12 over 110 uh his two lowest scores were 71 and 79 and then it jumps back up to 95 so he's also a guy that doesn't burn you on that other end
00:11:14
Speaker
and post the buy 115 average so I understand this is low hanging fruit but I'll tell you why I really like him it's because firstly he's a VC option at playing for Carlton because they obviously get the early games in the fixture
00:11:32
Speaker
He's a leader with a defined role in the actual team. I know there's been a bit of talk that he might play midfield with no Walsh which would be fantastic because I think he went on a tear at the end of last year when he did that with the 137 in the last round.
00:11:48
Speaker
Absolute mark merchant, high kick to handball ratio, but the biggest point for me is that I think potentially he will be the top defender. I think potentially that'll be by 10 plus points, which for that reason, I think he might be a good starting candidate just because he's so much better than the field that you could potentially put on 40, 50, 60 points each week just based on whoever other coaches pick.
00:12:16
Speaker
I love the theory, honestly, you've mentioned in one of our earlier pods a few weeks ago when you were just theorising about what sort of strategies might work this season and looking at that defensive line, how challenging it is and identifying Doc as that player that maybe we can just set and forget as our D1.
00:12:37
Speaker
I kind of love it. I've been looking at a few iterations of my team. There's just so much value around, but I'm interested in the guys with some credentials weighing in on this. Homsey, your thoughts on Doc? Mate, I'm actually a big fan. I think we all get caught up in the preseason of value, value, value, because that's what a few of the big coaches, the successful coaches in the community preach. But we can get caught up in thinking that everyone's got value. We still need to lock away.
00:13:06
Speaker
a few of these keepers that are the genuine gun scorers and Louie's right I can see a world where he comes out he's priced at 110 but if he goes 115 plus for the first six rounds then he is value isn't he and he's clearly the best defender so he's definitely someone I'm considering yes it's a high price tag but he's an absolute gun.
00:13:28
Speaker
Yeah, nice. And that's all we'll touch on, because you're the only bloke with credentials these days. Stado, no longer a man with the credentials. I actually haven't thought about the Walshe out being a doc thing, though, which that's a really good call as well. Last two games, just to clarify, 75% of the center-bounce attendances, and then 88% in his last couple there. So yeah, that's a good watch, and that's a good call. Lou, Stado, who do you want to talk about, mate?
00:13:57
Speaker
I want to talk about A. A. Ron Hall. So A. A. Ron is actually discounted from what his ceiling could possibly be. And we're talking about 20 points. So he's priced at 90.
00:14:14
Speaker
What I'm debating internally, is this worth the risk? So we heard Holmes talk about the first six rounds. If he's averaging 110 in the first six rounds, then he's escaped us and you don't get that benefit. Yes, there's the risk with the body. We know this, but the last three games he averaged 109.7 and we know he can do this. We know what his ceiling is.
00:14:44
Speaker
and currently he's training as that extra in defence, so the main ball carrier out of defence. If that ends up being his role and he's fit going into the season, as much as it pains me to say it, I'm considering him for a flying start. Wowie, Lou, thoughts?
00:15:06
Speaker
Yeah, don't mind it. Each year that goes by, you do worry about Aaron Hall because his body has never really stood up, but Stado's right. This is a guy who has shown the ability to just go 110 after 110 after 110. He's got a really cruisy role. If that role continues, then
00:15:25
Speaker
It really lends itself to high fantasy scoring because let's be honest The ball is going to spend a decent amount of time back there as well as those kick-ins from behinds of the opposition. So I don't mind it I think that perhaps Clarko might be heading in a new direction and that's where we might see him digress But it's a matter of how many points that is by and if he does go 105 plus then certainly value
00:15:53
Speaker
It's going to take a gutsy coach to win the comp. It always does. And these are the type of moves that help you win. And I just think at this point in the preseason, at being the 11th of January, it's a no-brainer that you're considering it. If he gets injured or he does a soft tissue injury at any point in the preseason, just abort mission, just completely take him off your watch list. But if you don't hear anything and he gets a clean run into round one, he's someone that I will just not overthink and heavily consider.
00:16:24
Speaker
Jay, some solid options already from the lads here. Hall's been one that I've kind of, I think just due to the being butt hurt from a few injuries in the last couple of years, I've kind of put him off my radar, but yeah.
00:16:35
Speaker
bringing back those stats. You just remember how good his ceiling can be. My number one choice that I just want to talk about today is just a guy where when I did fire up my Hilux winning team, I think he did make his way into the first draft. So, I mean, regardless of the draft, it is the Hilux winning team. But on that first draft, James Sicily made his way in. And you might think, Dossie, it's not 2022 anymore. He doesn't come with a discount. It's a new season. It's a new game.
00:17:05
Speaker
He's now priced at what he averaged last year, which was around the 96 mark, I think. I don't have his price up at the moment, which I should have done first, but look, he came like to people for remember that was his first season back after coming back from an ACL. So he's 854K.
00:17:22
Speaker
average 96 off his first year back. I do remember he did take a more of an extended time off than most people take with the ACL. Like he took more of that sort of year and a half rather than the 12 months. But still, I see some just general improvement in terms of just his body's feeling better coming into year two.
00:17:41
Speaker
but not only that, I feel like he's going to become more of a presence in their team. They've got two veteran leaders leading, leaving the team. Yes, they play different positions, but I just feel like it's one to watch as well in terms of they're probably just going to look to Sicily more to be
00:17:56
Speaker
The guy that they looked to in that back line, he averaged 8.6 marks per game last year. That's insane, but I feel like he can still lift his game to a new level. He only averaged 24 touches, which I feel like that can lift again. We saw him come home with a massive game in the last round. Yes, the dogs were a very easy team to play against last year. But something about this season, with how tough our defensive lines are this year,
00:18:23
Speaker
The Hawks, we generally think are going to be pretty bad this year and he's going to be in that backline.
James Sicily: Defensive Leadership
00:18:31
Speaker
What do you guys think on Sicily to just be that steady hand in our backlines, even though he's priced at, you know, $854K?
00:18:40
Speaker
I don't mind it. I'm not making a direct comparison here, but do you remember Jordan Ridley a couple of years ago when everyone was keen on a Jordan Ridley breakout? He's kind of in that same mould where he kind of needs everything to fall his way.
00:18:58
Speaker
like to not be accountable to just have a game where he could roam and be free but he's their best player, he's their best defender and there's just going to be times where he has to lock down and take the opposition's best forward and I just, I see that as capping his ceiling a little bit. So I think he'll be around that 96 mark. I think he'll, again, I can't see him improving too much and he's going to be around the top six defenders come year-end but I'm just not sure there's going to be massive upside because
00:19:25
Speaker
Yeah, he's just gonna have to play some accountable roles every now and again, which means he's not gonna be hunting the footy as much.
00:19:33
Speaker
Yeah, that makes sense to me and probably why in draft version number two and after hearing some of Louis' thoughts about who's, you know, about Sam Docherty before probably makes me sway towards maybe just paying a little bit extra for a guy that even could have some upside at his ridiculous starting price than someone who, like you're saying, Holmes, he may just hover around the same. But I don't know, I do see some upside there and I just thought I'd mention him because
00:19:58
Speaker
Yeah, I hadn't kind of considered him before coming to the season and he was kind of on my radar now, given the Hawks changes and potentially maybe going a more mark-heavy game plan. I think they had pretty, they were pretty down in the league last year, 13th overall for Mark. So if they do decide to chip it around a bit more, Cicely could get involved. Uh, Holmsey, do you want to take us through your second player you want to talk about?
00:20:20
Speaker
Yep, so I'll keep the Melbourne flavor going and we're going to talk about Christian Salem. OK, so Christian Salem comes in heavily discounted because of an injury affected year. So he comes in priced at about $73, $74. I don't have the exact number off the top of my head.
00:20:36
Speaker
and these are his averages from 2017. So he went 85, 79 and then he went 89, 89, 93 and then last year 74. Okay, so if we play it safe, he's generally that sort of 89 guy. If he averaged 89, that's going to put him as about the 14th averaging defender for the year once we've lost
00:20:57
Speaker
a few of the guys we lost this year. So he's that mid-priced option that's under priced due to injury and if he gets back to what he's done in the past, he's going to be a pretty decent option for us and our fantasy squads. His career high of 92, that would be fantastic. You'd probably need him to go 90 plus from his price point to be close enough to the top six defenders. I don't think an 85 average is going to cut it. So if you think
00:21:22
Speaker
you know, with Brayshore going into the midfield and Salem being the main distributor back there and he can get back to that 89, 90 average or maybe even more. I think he's going to be a very decent option. I know you're pretty keen on him, Louis. What can you see him going this year?
Christian Salem: Mid-Priced Option
00:21:37
Speaker
Yeah, I see him as a 90 plus guy just regularly. That move of brayshore into the midfield could mean 5 to 10 points upside, which coming in what he's priced at just presents unbelievable value. I'm a big Christian Salem fan anyway. He has gone on stretches where he has been able to tear up and average over the time over a stretch of games. Certainly when they do use him as the main ball user as well.
00:22:03
Speaker
He just seems to rack up that many marks and kicks that he makes 100 look easy in previous seasons. I think even though it was unfortunately got injured in round one last year, it might be a bit of a gift for us this year because with some uncertainty in that defense, I think Christian Salem makes for a pretty easy pick pre-season pending.
00:22:29
Speaker
Yeah I was going to mention that as well. We know how hard it is for players to come back off long-term injuries and he had a pretty serious knee injury in round one so that not only does that injured game drop his price but fitness and health coming back in later on in the season you're always chasing your tail. So clearly he's not going to be 74 again.
00:22:47
Speaker
But he did just, he showed a pretty serious flaw last year, a score in the 40s and the 50s. So if he comes out with a couple of those in the first sort of six rounds, you're in a bit of trouble. But he does open with the Bulldogs in round one and we know what defenders do against the Bulldogs. So you should get off to a ripping start at least. All right. Another player to consider in that mid price bracket. Stato, do you want to take us through your next player?
00:23:13
Speaker
Yeah, I'm going for a bit of a roughy here. I'm trying to look for a bit of gold in defence and I must admit it's a bit thin at the moment. I think we'll understand a few more options once we get to that sort of pre-season games and understand if there's any role changes that might benefit scoring.
00:23:35
Speaker
But I'm going a player that's been talked about for a long time but hasn't really delivered. I'm pretty hot on him in draft. So I'm keeping an eye on him to see whether he should be up for salary cap consideration. That's Liam Duggan.
00:23:51
Speaker
So he had an average of 83.5 last year, but it was the back end of the year that he really started to dominate. Now, doing the draft kit for the West Coast Eagles list this year was actually a really interesting exercise. And they've really got some concerns, especially in that midfield. They need to regenerate.
00:24:18
Speaker
I don't know exactly where that's coming from, but this man can score whether he actually gets a midfield time or he's sitting on that halfback flank as the distributor. His last five games in the home and away season last year, he averaged 106.6. He had a slow, interrupted pre-season, so I think his scoring was slow to start with, but he certainly finished off very well.
00:24:46
Speaker
So I've got that big question in my head. Is this the pod that is a top six defender that we're actually looking for? Because we're all looking for that value and I'm trying to search where that is. Most others we're looking at comes with risk and we deal with a few of those through the listener request. But Liam Duggan's one I'm keeping an eye on.
00:25:12
Speaker
That 106 average stato, did that come from being used through the midfield? It was mainly on the halfback flank. I could speak to that. I watched a fair bit of the Weagles late last year when he was having this run. Honestly, it became just a possession game between him and Shannon Hearn. They were just chipping it back and forth between the two. I think even Barras got involved in a bit.
00:25:36
Speaker
And all three of these guys were just roaming around the back line. They really went chip heavy in the last kind of five weeks and sort of changed that up. And they weren't using guys like your Witherdens and that as well during that stretch. Holmes, you've got something to add as well?
00:25:51
Speaker
Yeah, I think you've nailed it, Dossi. With these teams that are down the bottom of the ladder, that are just trying to get through to the end of the season, I think Shannon Hearn went at 107 as well. Like, they're just trying to get through to the end of the year, make sure that they're not getting injured and whatnot, so they sort of chip around. And I think that's where you kind of just ignore those back-end numbers, because I can't see, you know, Liam Duggan, Shannon Hearn coming out and averaging 105 to start the year where
00:26:16
Speaker
You know, everyone, everyone thinks they're a chance at winning the flag at the start of the year. The foot is different to the back end of the season. So he's not one I would be considering, but Stado, you are right. If he goes into the midfield, then that changes everything again.
00:26:29
Speaker
West Coast has got to be up there with Hawthorn for one of the more interesting teams to watch this pre-season, I think, because there's just no way that, especially for West Coast, they can continue doing what they did this year and they've got to turn over a bit of the old heads and bring in the youth. So what that means, position-wise, we'll see, but it should be pretty interesting and I could see Liam Duggan being top six defender easily if the cards fall his way.
00:26:56
Speaker
What I will say, Duggan is always a name brought up in preseason and it seems like, it does seem like he's been around forever as this guy that who's going to break out, but he's, I mean, he still is only 26 years old and you'd hate to not pick him the year it finally does happen. Tends to be more of a draft focus. As you mentioned, Stado, you're talking about him in draft, but
00:27:17
Speaker
Yeah, if we do see that game plan deployed or even if we just see him I'd honestly prefer him to be a defender But the thing I'd prefer for him to be a defender is if they don't have Unfortunately guys like a witherton or something back there to distribute the ball even as much as I love him as a fantasy player Like you'd want him to be the big dog out of defense and be the go-to guy So I think if you've got either that or if you do think that he can take it to another level in the midfield Yeah, go ahead
00:27:46
Speaker
Not a bad pick though Stata, a bit of a different one. Dare I say a point of difference, a bit of a pod there. Is it down to me now or are we going to? No, Louis, we've got you mate next.
00:27:57
Speaker
Yeah, I've got Jack Bowes next, guys, who I think is quite mysterious going into this season. So obviously, previously a top 10 pick for the Suns made his way over to Geelong quite interestingly this offseason. Sure pick seven helped in that regard, but from what's come out from the club and Jack Bowes.
00:28:22
Speaker
Um, they do plan to use him on a wing and through the midfield and, uh, as a real bowl user. So whether that transpires, that's one to watch in the pre-season, but I'd be interested to hear you guys's thoughts on Jack Bose. If you can get a nice role, uh, can he finally start putting some, uh, regular scoring together because he has shown it in glimpses across his career.
Jack Bowes at Geelong: Midfield Role?
00:28:46
Speaker
I remember start of 2021 season, I think the first six rounds he was in the top three defenders. So he has the scoring ability. So to me, he's a preseason watch.
00:29:01
Speaker
to find out what type of role he's going to have at Geelong. Now, you would assume for the choice less cash and move to a club that has the potential of winning a premiership, whether that was the angle that got him there or there was that discussion of what role you'll be taking moving forward. So that's the big thing for me, the role.
00:29:28
Speaker
Yeah, so I'll throw a little bit of stats in here because so, Louis, you're assuming that he plays in the midfield. So some of that research we looked at the other day, like I said, the M1 to M3. So Geelong average 89 for their M1 to M3. So what that says to me is that they have a lot of guys going through there and a lot of guys playing a lot of different roles. So
00:29:48
Speaker
It's definitely a pre-season watch to see where it ends up. But Geelong definitely played a full squad mentality last year to get them through to a flag with lots of different players playing different roles. So you might not be getting a consistent role each week, which would hurt his fantasy scoring a little bit.
00:30:09
Speaker
Yeah, Jack Bose. It's a tough one. I don't know. I honestly have no feel for the Bose situation, to be honest. What's his price point? Just under 70. About 67. I worked it out on my spreadsheet to be. And what do you think he needs to score to be good enough to be in your starting squad?
00:30:33
Speaker
Or given the cattle at this point in the pre-season, I'd be happy with 87. So 20 points upside. I think he's got the potential to do that. He's never really been given the opportunity at the Suns, but he has had stints where he has been given slight opportunity and showing that he does have it. So look, he comes in price really at about what he's done in previous seasons, but keeping in mind the upside, that'll be one to watch, I think.
00:31:02
Speaker
All right, Jack Bose, Louis final player there, and I'll round us out with our picks before we get to some listener requests with a loose one. Ed Richards, guys. So as I'm just doing my fantasy research for the Lux team, you know how you can do that. One thing I quite like to do, especially before the season starts obviously, is check out those
00:31:30
Speaker
stats that you can do on the stats center in the game. And when I was startled to see that Ed Richards was one of the top defenders to finish the year with his last five average and last three average, so came home absolutely firing. And I was trying to look into why this was. I remember he moved sort of into that half back roll and really started to thrive at the end of the year. But it was kind of, to me, I was like,
00:31:56
Speaker
quite shocked at how much kind of upside we could be potentially seeing from, from Ed Richards this year. Um, so keen for you guys thoughts on this one, but his end to the season from round 18 now granted the first two were without Caleb Daniel, but then coming after that, the last four were with him side by side. So we had a 90 106
00:32:18
Speaker
108, 90, 88, and 92 to finish the year for Ed Richards, who is another one in that kind of awkward price bracket around the similar price to Bose, I would suggest. Let's have a look at what he is. He's at $648,000, so 73 price tag, but finished the year with a 97 average in his last five. Is this a guy that we could be looking at as one of those kind of mid-price pods to start the year? Stado.
00:32:47
Speaker
I started with him last year. He was in the mid 300s. I was expecting this breakout, but I was effectively three months too early.
00:33:02
Speaker
I priced at 74 dos for a guy who in his last six rounds really only started showing that he's got an ability to score. I just couldn't start in my starting squad. But that being said, and whether or not it's true, I'm not sure. Apparently, Caleb Daniel is training up the ground this preseason, so that might give him a bit more opportunity. As in like a win.
00:33:27
Speaker
I suppose whether that's true or not sure but even that being said i think i prefer like a bailey dale.
00:33:36
Speaker
We'll give you a little bit of a pass, Dos. We'll say it's a pre-season watch, but what I will say is you've got Bayley Dale back there. They've had Caleb Daniel in the past. Adam Trelaar went back there for a large part of the season. They've just got so many ball users coming out of the back line. I think the Bulldogs are going to want them to use multiple different avenues and for your fantasy scores to really go well, you need them to be that main distributor out there. And I think they're just going to share it around, mate.
00:34:01
Speaker
I'll tell you what though, you guys will be astounded like I was if you go back and look at his numbers in those games. Over 20 disposals and six marks in every single one of those last five games to finish the year. I'm just flagging it, Dossie's flagging it. They weren't easy opposition either. Talking your Melbourne's, your Geelong's, your Freo's who possess the ball themselves. Ed Richards, you heard it here first, Dossie's.
00:34:24
Speaker
A little bit of a breakout call. All right, let's get to some listener requests, guys. The first one off the ranks that we've got is Nick Daikos, who, guys, he's a popular name.
Nick Daikos: Popular Yet Inconsistent?
00:34:32
Speaker
I've brought him up a few weeks ago. Nick Daikos, one of the top 10 popular most picks that they've posted out earlier on this season. I didn't think he was going to be that popular, but obviously a huge name in the game, defensive option for us this year. Who wants to talk a bit about Nick Daikos as an option, Lou?
00:34:53
Speaker
Yeah, sure, mate. Obviously, second year player, I'm a little bit surprised at his ownership as well, to be honest. But at the same time, in terms of what a first year player can show you in their first season, I mean, he was phenomenal. And you'd have to think that he's a top candidate to improve again. Without having the numbers in front of me right now, he went at about an 88, 90 sort of average guys. 86, I think.
00:35:20
Speaker
86. So I don't see why he couldn't put 10 points on top of that, potentially more. I think he will still have that roll across the halfback flank for the pies. But yeah, I mean, I like him as a pick. I don't think he has enough meat on the bone for how much you're going to have to pay for him. But he is a guy that you monitor during the preseason that I wouldn't be overly surprised if he could notch up that second year breakout time.
00:35:50
Speaker
Yeah, he definitely, he ticks every single box for upside in terms of elite junior numbers, first year, absolutely sensational, good role in the back line. The caveats on that, I'll just throw up a few red flags. So I don't think he's going to have it as easy as he did in year one. I think teams are going to start to put a lot more attention into him and maybe not a tag, but he'll definitely be a name that goes up on the board as someone that they have to monitor because of how damaging he is.
00:36:18
Speaker
And the fact that Tom Mitchell's come in, it's pretty, well, it's not easy to assume, but you would think that Pendle starts to maybe slide back a little bit. And then that's just another, a ball user that's going to be in the back line. And once again, just another distributor. So I think he's got everything in terms of a little bit of upside, but I think Lou is right. There might not be enough meat on the bone to pick, but yeah, he's definitely a popular name that's been thrown around in the preseason.
00:36:43
Speaker
Can I ask you this, Holmsey, on the same player, Daikos, do you have the thought of mind that he actually maybe goes into the midfield a bit more this year? If Pendels does slide back, that he's, you know, a junior midfielder was his role, he's got a big enough body to go in there. We didn't see him do it at all last year, but obviously the inclusion of Tom Mitchell suggests they're still looking for that bigger body to kind of mix in there at the moment.
00:37:08
Speaker
Yeah well then we don't really know how that's going to look, Dossie, so is he going to have it a little bit harder in the midfield? Is he going to get a little bit more attention in there, not get as much free ball on the outside? Mate, it's just a big watch and see, see how it lines up in the pre-season as all these picks are.
00:37:24
Speaker
I just don't think it's as easy just to say that he's going to, I've heard some people saying that he's going to knock the ton when, you know, I think the highest averaging player for Collingwood last year was 94. So we do know that the system is not as conducive to scoring, but I just think you temper your expectations on day cost just at this point in time and just see how it sort of plays out.
00:37:44
Speaker
going against the comp by the sounds of things, 38% owned, which shocked me at the moment in the early stages of the game, early January. Stado, listeners want to know, Tom Stewart and Mitch Duncan, so either or, and can they coexist and both be good scorers and starting picks by the sounds?
Tom Stewart vs. Mitch Duncan: Coexistence in Defense
00:38:06
Speaker
I absolutely, they both can be. If anyone listens to the draft doctors, we're expecting a bit of a slide for Tom Stewart, but that's not really any effect by Mitch Duncan. And be mindful, Mitch can play many different roles. So of course they can coexist. The interesting part, we just talked about it before about the nursing.
00:38:32
Speaker
So the managing of the Geelong players, they got a premiership by doing so. These two aren't getting any younger. I like Mitch a loss in draft because draft you can have him rest for two or three weeks and it doesn't kill you and salary cap it does.
00:38:52
Speaker
So the reality is I'm not really looking at either of them in my defense, but mind you in saying that there's not too many numbers in my defense right now. The one thing that sort of changed with Tom Stewart last year is he showed that ceiling. So he was always a
00:39:12
Speaker
A guy that only really had a ceiling of 120 and then was generally that sort of flat average guy. And that's why I averaged always around that 95. But last year we saw scores of 150 and 160. But then what came along with that was the attention. So we saw some tags towards the end of the year that meant that he had a floor as well.
00:39:30
Speaker
I think he's one that if you do pick him, you're picking him at the start of the year. Look at his match ups and see if there's any tags and you hope that he gets off to a hot start and then the rest of the comp jumps on with you and by that point you've already got the scores and then they're just matching you. I really like Tom Stewart. I think he just seems like he's one of those players that he's going to have a season that aligns and he's going to average over 100. There's just always something that goes against him but he's definitely someone I'm considering at the moment.
00:39:57
Speaker
those GMHBA games where they just chip around to that, if he can have another couple of those 150 games, then it's obviously going to put his average up. He's one of those players because of the home game advantage that they actually have. If you monitor the fixture really closely, if they get a run of, say, four games in six rounds down there in Geelong, that's when he might be a great target.
Yeo: High-Scoring Potential with Risks
00:40:26
Speaker
A highly requested player for this segment was Elliot Yeo. Louis, I've got a lot of interest in this guy. I'm a West Coast fan, yes, but having defensive status is an absolute gift. He's a bit of a bloke that has played midfield. Gee, I want to say for the last four or five years before being a defensive option for us back in the day, he was a pretty solid defensive option back then. Moved into the midfield, made an absolute killing as a midfielder, premiership player.
00:40:56
Speaker
Now we've got him as a defender again, he averaged 57 points last year from just the five games, been struggling with injury, only played 60% time on ground. He's owned by 19% of the comp already. Lou, are you as keen as I am on some Elliot Yeo this preseason, if of course we see him healthy, fit and firing this preseason?
00:41:17
Speaker
Yeah, and that's that's a big if Doss, but absolutely I am just because last time he would have been in my team was when he was a defender and went at that sort of 105 average. Obviously that won't be the role that he's going to play in 2023. The Eagles are definitely going to run some new faces through that midfield or change it up at the very least anyway. So I expect Elliot Yeo if he's fit and fine to be running through there as a mature head. He's not too old. I think he's only 28, 29. So
00:41:47
Speaker
In some respects, he's still in his prime if he can stay fit. Comes in as a defender, 625k. Like I said, opportunity is showing the ability. If he can stay fit, then I think he's another easy pick down back.
00:42:03
Speaker
Yeah, he's in that Aaron Hall mode, not of the role, but if he has any mishaps in the preseason, you just put a line through him. What we do know about Elliott Yo is he adds something completely different to that Eagles midfield. He's that tackler, he's that defensive minded midfielder. So if he's building his scores around tackles and he's playing through that midfield price at 71,
00:42:23
Speaker
Yeah, he's definitely someone we need to look at because like you said, he can average 98 as a defender, but he's gone 105 as a midfielder in the past. Not saying he's ever going to get back to that 105, but if he can go 95 plus, which he's shown to be able to comfortably in the past with that role, then he's just someone we lock away if healthy. The issue with him is the price point.
00:42:46
Speaker
So the reality is for what his output has actually been is probably someone we should have expected or hoped for to be a little bit cheaper. So I'm just looking at him. Yeah. So he played less in the 10 game limit. So that really hurts. So the discount discounts on a much higher score.
00:43:09
Speaker
Yeah, he's also at that price point, though, that it's easy to go down to that mid price that has come out firing. True. So that's one thing. I think Tom Phillips was a little bit more expensive a couple of years back, but very easy to go down if he does get injured. But yeah, definitely just watch that pre-season.
00:43:27
Speaker
I'm just interested in what role they play him as well, because Simmo has loved in the past. I was surprised to see him in the defensive line, and obviously it's a gift for us, but he's been one of the guys that Simmo loves throwing Elite Yo in their high, high, high center bounce usage. He used to be one of the top guys, upwards of 85% kind of thing, if memory serves, when I was doing those center bounces. He's been every center bounce just about.
00:43:54
Speaker
definitely want to watch in our pre-season. Now, Kyle, I want to stay with you here for a man you had a bit of a love-hate relationship with last year, if memory serves. Dan Houston has been requested here a 92 average, 815K starting price. He averaged 103 in his last three games. He's going to be a pod coming in this year, only the 2% ownership early days. Thoughts on Dan Houston and talk us through some of those frustrations.
00:44:21
Speaker
Yeah, he's someone that'll put a 130 score up, and then he's someone that'll put a 50 score up. So he's, I think he had a concussion last year, which he can't really, you know, you don't pick a play just because they got a concussion, but a few sort of soft tissue injuries makes it pretty hard to...
00:44:37
Speaker
Pretty hard to pick, but what I will say is Carl Amon has left Port Adelaide, so I think that's why people are looking at him. If he becomes that sole winger that they look to get the ball into his hands of, yeah, there might be upside. I'm just wary of those floor scores that he has, which tends to put his average down. So at this stage, he's not someone I'm looking to start.
00:44:55
Speaker
It's got nothing to do with last year. I'd find it hard in that Port Adelaide system for him to go 98, 100, just sitting on the wing. I think Port Adelaide might try to maybe switch it up a little bit this year. Their game plan's kind of a little bit outdated. They didn't go too well last year and I think they'll sort of switch things up.
00:45:15
Speaker
Another guy who wants to be talked about statesman, I'll throw this one to you, Hayden Young. Now I mentioned him a couple of weeks ago in one of our podcasts earlier this pre-season in 2022, but Hayden Young, 87.6 average. He's actually owned by a fair few people already. What do you think on Hayden Young taking that next step up from an 87 averaging guy? And I'm guessing you'd want at least 10 plus points upside here.
00:45:44
Speaker
Yeah the price point's the issue. Last year's where he was really good value and as you guys know and probably told me off that many times because I just wanted a bitty young and he had that stretch last year. The only thing I'd say
00:45:59
Speaker
I don't know if he's going to lift his ceiling but I think he'll lift his floor. So he still had a few games last year in sort of that 60s level. Part of me has got a bit of an issue because they've got Clark, they've got
00:46:15
Speaker
Chapman, they've got Young and they're all confined the footy. So to me, I think there is going to be this point where they sort of max out. And what I mean by that is I don't know with the three of them playing together that we get any of the three actually be a top sixer.
00:46:38
Speaker
Yeah, you look at Adelaide, so everything goes through Jordan Dawson. You look at St Kilda last year, everything went through Sinclair, the Jake Lloyd of old, everything went through him. And I think Stato's right, when you've got a lot of ball users in the back line, I think they'll spread it a bit more and that puts a bit of a cap on all of their ceilings. So I think you'll find he improves again and maybe you can push into the 90s, but yeah, I'm not sure he's going to get enough of the ball by himself to really push the top six.
00:47:08
Speaker
We've got an interesting player to talk about as well, requested, loving these suggestions
Hunter Clark: Breakout Potential?
00:47:13
Speaker
coming through. Hit us up on our Twitter, Pod Pod AFL. Hunter Clark, $604,000 he's always talked about as the perennial breakout contender has not hit it yet. Still only, I believe, 24, 23, 24 years old.
00:47:30
Speaker
Louis, what do you reckon on Hunter Clark? Are we ever going to see this breakout and could this be the year under a new coach with Ross Lyon coming into the Saints? There's a little bit of a forgotten name. I think it would take a pretty brave coach to start somebody like Hunter Clark. Like you said, he's 24. He's shown glimpses, but hasn't shown a whole lot. And we're looking at a team who's got a brand new coach and presumably will have a brand new system.
00:47:59
Speaker
Like we say with all of these players, he's another one to watch in the pre-season, but I think at that 600k mark, I'd still rather have a dabble at a Salem, a YO, even a Jack Bose before I start looking at a Hunter Clark, but there are reasons why he hasn't put it together too. He's had a couple of unlucky injuries and I fractured his jaw quite badly and then there was another strange injury in there the year before maybe, if memory serves me correctly.
00:48:28
Speaker
Hunter Clark, I'm pretty lukewarm on, he's probably more of a draft guy you might be able to get a steal on. He's another one of these players that is actually priced over his average from last year because his average two years ago was much higher. So if his price point was in the mid 50s, I think he's worth a punt.
00:48:49
Speaker
but seeing it's actually closer to 70 certainly got a bit of an issue because his game's history is 15, 14, 16, 13, 8.
00:49:04
Speaker
Yeah, it's a tough one. Let's just hope Ross brings the best out of him, but he might be more of that guy that you look to upgrade to. And maybe that guy that Holmes is talking about, if one of your other mid-price as far as you can jump across to, if he does pop, but that sounds like there's a lot of risks coming into starting the season at least with Hunter Clark at this point.
00:49:23
Speaker
Uh, Holmsey though, we'll throw to you for another Port Adelaide player. A bit of a, this one threw me through a little bit of a loop. I wasn't expecting this to be a suggestion, but he has gone through a few hot patches in the past. More of a draft guy, but Riley Bonner, could you even consider starting him at 639K?
00:49:40
Speaker
Yeah look, he's not someone that I'd typically look to start in my squad. So priced at 68, you'd need him to go push up towards that 90 mark and I'm just looking at his averages here. So 2016 when he came into the comp, 79, 74, 60, 67, 68, 67.
00:50:02
Speaker
Those type of players, you've got to try and figure out why they've never really taken the jump. And there's a lot of data to suggest now that that's just what he is. There's always that one. So Sinclair just popped out of nowhere last year. But I'd much rather jump on that if it does happen in the season than try to predict it from the get go out of nowhere.
00:50:22
Speaker
All right, and this last player on the main suggestions here, Isaac Cumming. Louis, do you want to take us through? I mean, there's going to be a few changes at GWS as well. They're one that I'm keenly eager to watch how it all goes, mostly in that midfield department. But could Isaac Cumming be an option down back at his price tag of $802,000, averaging 90.6 last year?
00:50:48
Speaker
I really rate Isaac coming, he's one of those guys that has pretty much the lion's share of the kick ins as well. He is a player that at some point I can see being a top 6 defender.
00:51:03
Speaker
Find it difficult to read him going into this year. So obviously a new coach at GWS. What sort of game style is it? Are there going to be more distributors down back? Where does Himmelberg play? Where does Whitfield play? There's just a lot of moving pieces there.
00:51:20
Speaker
There's also a world where Isaac coming could still have that lion's share of the kick-ins but also be the main ball user down back with a lot of chip mark and become a 100 guy so for me as I've said with pretty much all these players a watch list but priced at 90 I don't think there's going to be enough meat on the bone to actually warrant starting him over some of these other options that we've got but he's always a pretty good steal in draft I've noticed.
Rapid-Fire Player Assessments
00:51:49
Speaker
I'm going to kick off a new quick fire segment lads and it's going to be called it's going to be about whether a player the next players that we're going to have to rush through quickly are going to be a player that maybe if you pick them it might be a bit of a looser call but potentially a Hilux winning pick or if they're just no good. Will they win you the Hilux or do they just run?
00:52:26
Speaker
This segment is called Lux or Sucks, boys. I want to hear a Lux or a Sucks from you when I throw it to you. Look, it's a tough, it's a harsh call, but could this be a Hilux winning pick or these guys just suck and we shouldn't be talking about them. I'm going to go through a bunch of names here that were the leftover picks from our listeners suggestions. Connor McKenna, Stado.
00:52:48
Speaker
What's his price point? $39. Stado, this is a quick fire segment. $373K. Lux. It's not, but it's beside the point. It's cheap enough. And we've got a shit defense. If he's playing halfback flank, it's Lux territory. Jordan Clark, $722K for the Dockers. Louis.
00:53:16
Speaker
Ah, sucks. Like you said, there's a lot of distributors down there. Zach Williams, another player who's, we've picked a few years in a row. 614K, Kyle. Ah, sucks. What I will say though, just quickly have a look at what that does to Sam Docherty because he was out for large periods of the year and they like going through Zach Williams, but not, not priced low enough.
00:53:40
Speaker
He's going to be a midfielder. Oh, okay. 537K is Will Day. Stado, Lux or Sucks? Has to be Sucks. The body says he sucks. Yeah, that's tough. That's tough. Jack Skoomshaw, 641K also for the Hawks, Louis. Sucks.
00:54:06
Speaker
Josh Goder for North Melbourne. We had the request come in. I think he only played the one game last year, um, got the 82 points and now priced at 537 K. Yeah. Unfortunately that prices him out of it for us. If he had not played that game, they'd been basement. We'd been all over it, but yep. Louie. Well, I want to handle that over to state. Oh, that sounds like a super coach question there, dos.
00:54:40
Speaker
Luxor sucks for the Zote, Zach Guthrie. I'm not going to hear anything but Lux on this one. So I'm just going to say Lux and move on. No, let's get someone else's opinion. Stado, Zach Guthrie. I want to stay on the pod. So Lux.
00:54:58
Speaker
Good man, good man. Uh, and then finally, last but not least, somebody in the, in the chat and the Twitter sphere has mentioned that Brad Hill did win the 3k time trial. Uh, do we consider picking him home? See 663 K. Is that a Lux or a sucks pick? Uh, priced at around 75 off the top of my head. Don't quote me there. Not enough upside, not enough scoring potential tag risk. Uh, nah, sucks.
00:55:26
Speaker
All right, that'll get through the defender pod for
Listener League Introduction and Call to Action
00:55:30
Speaker
the day. Now, just to wrap up, lads, we are coming up to the hour point and we're about to wrap up, but we just want to let everyone know that we'll be running a listener league this year. It's a very, very exclusive listener league, and we're going to be doing it in a special way. There's going to be 20 spots available for this league. It's going to be your classic head to head one, but we're going to be doing it a little bit differently.
00:55:53
Speaker
You guys are going to be representing us, the four hosts here. Going to be representing your boys here. There's going to be five for each of us, five players, and we'll be drafting you guys to represent us. The way this is going to happen, you're going to have to leave your rating and review on Apple Podcast. Now, I don't care how you do this. You might have to just go down to the Apple store if you don't have the Apple, you've got the
00:56:17
Speaker
the Android phone. You go down to the Apple store, use one of their store phones, and you leave us at that rating and review. Give us the five stars. And in the review, we want you to make your pitch in that review section as to why you want to represent a specific host. Do you want Stado? Do you really want to represent the man that hasn't come inside whatever he's coming from? Five times. 10K. Five times. The last one. Get behind it. Do you want to represent Holmes? He is a man who's come runner up overall, but hasn't quite got that lux. Or do you want to represent
00:56:47
Speaker
Louis, I mean, Louis does it all, but do you really want to be representing the great man? I don't know. I think you want to be representing DOS, boys. But any of the four, Holmes, you've got your hand up, mate. You're just desperate to make a pitch for your own, your own listener to join your ranks. Nah, I'm just going to point out any person that's looking to represent Stado, there is that little bit of a barrier to entry. Are they going to be able to use the technology to do the review on Apple?
00:57:17
Speaker
It's a great point. But look, the way that we're going to do this as well, once you've made your pitch, you have to choose who you want to be representing, leave us your little pitch as to why you want to represent that specific person, then we're going to do a draft before the season.
00:57:34
Speaker
Regardless of who you've pitched to, we're going to be able to draft you. We might even snake each other's picks. If somebody's, you know, done a great pitch to Holmsey, I might decide, look, this guy looks like he's going to, he's going to win me that, uh, that league. I might want to draft him. So it's going to be a bit of fun. Um, before we leave though, I might get, turn it on the hosts here and give it a bit of a pitch yourselves as to why you want the listeners to be rooting for you and why you want them in your squad. Holmsey, throw it to you, mate.
00:58:04
Speaker
Look, I'm not going to sell myself my my ranking speak for themself. What I will say, though, Dossie, does anyone really want to pick you when you're putting up names like Ed Richards in the preseason? Do you really want someone that's going to finish outside the top 10K? I'm not too sure. But yeah, come to come to the heroes, mate. We'll have you. We'll have you. Stay there.
00:58:26
Speaker
Yeah, well, Stado's got the record. Stado's got consistency. Stado can go back to back, unlike the rest of them. I'm here for you. I need your support to rally back and bring back the legend. Louis. Yeah, these other guys suck, so just pick me.
00:58:49
Speaker
There you have it. I think my record speaks for itself. People know that I am the Lux winner coming up this year. So if, look, if you want to, if you want to be great, be Dossy. We'll see you all next week. We'll see you all next week. We'll continue these positions. We'll do forwards next week. Let's mix it up. See you then.