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FINAL THOUGHTS BEFORE OPENING ROUND feat. Moreira’s Magic | The Holmes Files Ep. 5
4.9k Plays9 months ago
The GOAT of AFL Fantasy, Moreira’s Magic, AKA Selby-Lee-Steere, joins two-time top 10 AFL Fantasy finisher and 2021 Runner-Up Kyle "Holmesy" Holmes for the final of The Holmes Files series in the 2024 pre-season.
Selby’s back-to-back AFL Fantasy Classic wins in 2017 and 2018 etched his name in fantasy history forever. Joining Holmesy for an intimate one on one interview in the week leading up to Opening Round, it’s time to pick The GOAT’s brain on a number of hot topics, and get his thoughts on some of the biggest names of the pre-season!
While Selby is now retired from AFL Fatntasy (he still dominates SuperCoach, his Moreira’s Magic platform has helped an average of 8 Moreira’s Magic members crack the top 10 of AFL Fantasy in the past two years, despite making up less than 1% of the competition.
Aside from creating the first AFLW Fantasy platform, Selby’s also recently launched a new fantasy platform called Bolter and has a draft platform (Slyder) in the works! The man truly is the GOAT!
Give Bolter a go – https://bolter.team/
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Transcript
Introduction to The Holmes Files
00:00:18
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod, back for another edition of The Holmes Files. As you can tell, it's Holmesie here and I've got another special guest and I've gone straight to the top for this last edition, most likely before we see some round zero games and we're stuck into the footy season. I've got Selby from Marairer's Magic. Selby, how are you today, mate? Holmesie. Good, mate. Good to be on The Holmesie's Files. I've enjoyed listening to them since. Oh, it's almost what
00:00:45
Speaker
December the one which old DT Lemon was on, so good to be on.
Preseason Strategies and Super Coach Trades
00:00:50
Speaker
Yeah, I should probably go back and have a listen to see what's kind of changed since we sat down in December. It was all pretty fresh and things have kind of evolved a lot over the pre-season and we're starting to see some footy now, which is really good. And I feel like our teams, they're shaping up a little bit. We're going to get to it in terms of the forward line and even the defensive line that's looking to be a bit tricky at the moment.
00:01:14
Speaker
You've been doing all your work at Moreira's Magic and we know that you just play Super Coach now, but how are you kind of, where have you been putting your time this preseason? You're playing Super Coach, but with the 40 trades this year, it's almost, you know, pretty similar to AF in terms of how you set your team up. How are you, how are you looking this preseason so far? Yeah, building my Super Coach team and I like the limited trades of Super Coach. I think it throws another element because I think we all know now
00:01:40
Speaker
with AF that you want to be getting value out of all your players, regardless if they're M1 or R1, you want to hope to get value. Whereas super coach with these limited trades, when there was, well, I think it was before COVID, they had 30 limited trades. So assuming you're going to get 10 force trades for the year, that's 20 trades for upgrading, which one down, one up means that you've only got 10 spots on your field to get an upgrade. So you want to start 12 best 22 players or keepers. So that's where that whole,
00:02:10
Speaker
metric came so that's now gone to 40 so in terms of how many keeps you can start could go down to as little as six or seven so
00:02:19
Speaker
Very similar now, the two of them, mind you, I have run our trades the last two years, so those extra four trades we're going to get this year in Super Coach should help.
Introducing Volta and Round Zero Fantasy Comp
00:02:25
Speaker
Wherever I've been spending my time, so yeah, building the team now, obviously what we do at Mirrors Magic and then launch this new platform, Volta, which I dare say we'll speak about at the very end, but if you haven't already, check it out, bolta.team. And we're the only ones playing around zero, fancy comp. So even if you just want to play for one round, jump on round zero and
00:02:46
Speaker
and pick all these players who are so tempted to pick in a real life classic game, but these early buyers throw on a curve ball. Well, this one you can pick Tom Green, Daikos, Golden, pick them all. And it will be a nice price for the round zero comp. Yeah, we'll definitely plug that in a little bit more detail at the end. I'm looking forward to it, especially you look a bit of footy tonight. Tom Green was everywhere early. Golden just was doing Golden things.
00:03:14
Speaker
all these picks that we'd love to be able to pick in a normal fantasy game. But unfortunately, there's a little bit more to it with the buyers this year, which we will get stuck into. So what I like to do for these, we'll go line by line and we can kind of talk about how we're sort of structuring up and how
Defensive Line Analysis and Challenges
00:03:28
Speaker
we're seeing it. So let's start with defense. What are you kind of thinking with the defensive line this year and how are you looking to structure up?
00:03:36
Speaker
Good question because I started the season thinking that the top priced defenders and typically we see those top defenders remain unlike the midfield which quite often gets a full shuffle and someone could go from M1 to M12 or 15 the next year, quite often most of that top six stays in defence.
00:03:58
Speaker
And I was looking and you could mount a case for all of the top six defenders from last year to be fairly priced or even under priced like day costs. We know that he's a freak going into his third season. He's going to be better again, had that injured game built into him.
00:04:17
Speaker
Sinclair back half the year when he started playing less in the midfield when Steele was back he went 108 back half of the year price at 102 went 110 last five when he only had 5% CBA so it's like well if he goes back to halfback flank what can he do there? Shesle second year you'd think you'd get a boo so there was there was an argument Tom Stewart had that injured game round one which you know too well unfortunately so there's an argument to say that they were all
00:04:43
Speaker
coming in under price now we've got this obviously the buy throwing things out and the day cost situations an interesting one how that's played the pre-season key position injuries to Hawthorne means Cicely might be more defensive and doesn't lie the stats him with or without Blank I think the numbers were what have we got here 114 with Blank in the side last year and 91 without I still thought he was going to
00:05:10
Speaker
there's going to be a role for Granger Barras and he'd still be close to that 110 mark than the 100 mark and B value at 105 but now with another injury down it's hard to start with him. Sinclair sounds like he might even miss round one so yeah this top echelon of the D1 lock and load is getting shaky so then like oh I enjoyed your chat
00:05:32
Speaker
the other day talking about Hayden Young where I am in that same boat of just having him in the team and not even thinking about him. But maybe he is the one we have to think about whether you move him up or move him down because he could be caught in no man's land. But at the moment I'm still keen enough on that little price point of where him and Jo and that are sitting.
00:05:56
Speaker
Yeah. So what I'm kind of struggling with, I've always been someone that's like to put a rookie or two in defense if I can with, you know, before we had the day classes and the Dawson's and these guys that were going one 10, typically you would say, you know, your top averaging defenders sort of topping out at 95 to a hundred and they weren't really hurting you. They'll kind of flat, but with the way fantasies played these or not fantasy. So with the way footies played these days, we're starting to see there's really big scores off the, off the back line. So,
00:06:25
Speaker
What I'm struggling with this year is, you know, we're hoping that we get a Nick Caulfield that we can slot in at D6 and we're hoping that Williams gets to the line and we might see him round zero or round one, but we, you know, outside of a Josh Gibkus, who's not really going to be a scorer, we don't have any rookies that A, we can put on field or even stash on our bench. And what are we going to do if we don't actually get a Nick Caulfield or we don't get a Williams? It's, I think it's really unprecedented what we're looking at in defense this year. Would you agree that?
00:06:54
Speaker
It is. It is.
Debating Mid-Pricers vs Rookies
00:06:57
Speaker
If Curtin plays, I think he'll be okay. Like that's the where we differ. I listen to you a lot. And I think a lot of the stuff you say I'm, I'm bang on with except you have more faith in these or we're braver to play these extra rookies. I know that you, you don't mind rolling out an extra rookie
00:07:14
Speaker
from me typically and you typically do that in defence so normally I do try to strengthen up my back line and not have this uh the rookie but as you said like in I'm trying to think who they were in the glory years whether it was the Murray from uh Collingwood who came out an average 80 odd and there's always seems to be that one do they come out in average close to 70 I think in his first year so it's a bit different but um so there has always been the good one which yeah you're right there isn't that one this year but I'm
00:07:42
Speaker
This is where those buyers come into for what, four of the first six weeks. You might not need that D6 anyway, if it's a dodgy one. So my strategy of the past, which is take a haircut on most positions to mean less rookies on the field. So you don't have to wear that 40 or 35 even in this D6 position, if it's a rookie.
00:08:02
Speaker
But does that matter as much with these early buyers? That's what I'm trying to grapple that to, particularly with Supercoach. Is it worth paying up for that? Having Nick Caulfield as your D6, knowing that, well, you might not count him for four of the first six anyway. You're better off getting that cheaper rookie and then getting another mid price or elsewhere up to a premium. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see whether or not Dan Curtin actually makes the squad this week.
00:08:33
Speaker
kind of seems out of Adelaide that they're kind of, you know, easing him into it. He's had a bit of knee soreness over the preseason and they see him as a bit of a long-term project for them. So it's going to be interesting to see whether he makes it to round one or not. I'm not a rookie expert, but just wanting to keep an eye on Oscar Ryan from
00:08:52
Speaker
Adelaide's a lot of buzz coming from there from inside Adelaide. There's people saying that this is the best bunch of draftees they've seen and enough people have spoken about. They really like him. I think he went pick 27 or something in the draft and numbers are pretty good. I think he had a couple of scores over a hundred and TAC cut, but keep an eye on him. He'll be the savior.
00:09:17
Speaker
Yeah, yeah. We spoke, well, you spoke about some of those top end guys, but what about these guys that are priced around that sort of 70 to 80 marks are you looking at?
00:09:27
Speaker
Jordan Clark's a bit of a buzz name at the moment. We've got Kitty Coleman, who he looked good from what I saw today and put up some good scores. And he just seems like he's rolling on from what he did in the final series. One that popped his head up two days ago was Christian Salem with a full-time midfield role, which is interesting. He clearly, Clary's going to be back at some point, but there is some midfield minutes up for grabs now that Angus Brayshaw has retired.
00:09:54
Speaker
We've spoken about Elliott Yo, who I'm very hot on. But what are we thinking about these players? Could you start them all? Would that be too many? I think if it was no round zero, it'd be a big risk not knowing what their scoring potential is going to be. But the fact that outside of Yo, the other names you mentioned, and you throw Zach Williams in that as well, but Butterick, who you also didn't mention, Assalam, a Coleman. You'll know what their score is.
00:10:25
Speaker
It's a much safer one, one knowing role, what it's like in the real stuff. We can guess as much as we can. And we do all this research in the preseason and listen to training notes and listen to interviews and watch the match in. But as you always know, come round one, a curveball is thrown and you just got to remember that preseason we loaded up with.
00:10:43
Speaker
mid prices I think it was 2019 or 2021 maybe where it was the Phillips from Hawthorne and the Degoi in the midfield and Jordan Clark on the halfback flank and which they were in the pre-season then come around one Clark was playing half forward bench Degoi forward and Phillips pushed out the midfield so the fact that three of those or lots of those defenders you spoke about we're going to see what their role is in the real life what their score is so then that's built into the next price price rise so
00:11:12
Speaker
I think it's going to actually reduce a lot of the risk of starting those because you'll know what they're going to do. And if they're no good in round zero, then you might jump to the other one and get away with it or you go the rookie and step up to a premium.
00:11:26
Speaker
Yeah, you're dead right. This round zero, definitely a chance for us to watch. Let me just go back to Christian Salem for a second. So hypothetically, let's say he is the M2 behind Vinie, because we assume that Petrarca is still going to be in there a lot, but they do like to throw him forward a little bit. When, when everything's back to normal, say round three, four, five, when Clary's back, he's, he's fully fit and back in the team. What do you think Salem can average as that sort of M4 for Melbourne, if that's the role that sticks?
00:11:56
Speaker
It's a good question because I didn't see him as a tackle. Again, I didn't watch this game. I'll try to watch it, at least the shorts of it. I believe he had lots of tackles, didn't he? Yeah, nine tackles. Nine tackles, which is surprising considering the typical, no, no, his role doesn't normally bring about tackles that distributed off halfback flank.
00:12:18
Speaker
Obviously, if you can add that to the game, it's going to be a great result. So I haven't actually even considered him playing as a midfield. Obviously, they played yesterday. I haven't done any adjustments on my end of rankings. But say if all those players are back, is he going to be the M4? Does he go back to the number one defender for a distributor for Melbourne down back, which you know that in the past he scored
00:12:41
Speaker
three seasons of 90 and above which is good enough I think this season at that price that's 78 so yeah again round zero we'll be able to get a buff if he can go 90 in round zero we know he's going to get a immediate cash jump if he's got that midfield role so that certainly takes some risk off it but yeah I haven't really digested him in the midfield yet with my calculations
00:13:09
Speaker
Yeah. And yeah, we know Clary's coming back at some point and who knows, it could be around zero, it could be at the start of the season. But if you do get a clean four or five, six weeks with Salem in there, then it could be the perfect trade up to day cost coming off his buy as well. So there's
00:13:25
Speaker
There's plenty to think about there. He'd be the perfect one because I think the talk pre-season was he was going to play even as a half forward and trying to get his good kicking inside 50 for Melbourne rather than Oliver Petrucco just sort of bombing it in there, which has been the knock on the Ds. So, yeah, he could end up playing that high half forward role, which isn't great for fantasy. But as you said, if after that time come his buy, that could be perfect time to flick him to a day cost.
00:13:55
Speaker
And you are the Frio man, or I am as well, but just before we move on to the midfield, Jordan Clark, we've seen Hayden Young, you know, average 88 to 90 in that half-back role for Frio. We know that Luke Ryan, you know, commands a lot of footy back there. Can he go 90 and be a value pick at his price? Because if he goes mid 80s from there, it's a bit of a nothing pick, right? A bit like Andy McGraw last year. You'd assume that he goes better than that, but he's never really averaged above 83 before. Can he do it?
00:14:23
Speaker
Couple of things on that. Firstly, yes, you are a Docker, even though when you came second that season and you registered under a West Coast supporter with a West Coast logo as your banner and you're the highest ranked member. So I went out and got you a sign. West Coast Guernsey is the prize. It took you about a year to come play. And you said, oh, look, mate, I've just got to let you know I'm not even an ego supporter. So that's the first thing on that.
00:14:50
Speaker
Jordan Clark, shout out. First I heard him floated. I know people have floated him a bit recently, but I reckon Calvin very early in the piece made mention of Jordan Clark.
00:15:01
Speaker
It makes sense what last five last year, which was the last five when Young was moved in the midfielder average 88 price at 76 88. I don't think it's going to be a failed pick in the back line, particularly with the likelihood of those top end guys dropping down in price. So I think that can be his floor 88 and
00:15:22
Speaker
While Luke Ryan demands so much of the ball and distribution back there, he also likes to play a little bit of a 1-2 and he doesn't mind kicking it backwards and sideways and shorts. There's always someone else who bobs up with a decent score. We've seen Brown and Cox get some massive scores last year, which he's out to start the season. No Hayden Young then. Well, I've got him D16 at the moment. He probably needs to bump up a little bit from D16. I think he can push that 90 mark, Jordan Clark. How about you?
00:15:51
Speaker
Yeah, look, I think there's upside and I don't usually like picking these players. You know, Brayshaw and Sorong, or Sorong not as much, but Brayshaw loves getting those cheap, cheap kicks out of D 50 as well. He's always the one hitting up from the kick outs as well. If Caleb Sorong does get a little bit more outside ball, maybe there's a little less there. But yeah, I think there's definite growth from his price. I'm just not sure where it gets to.
00:16:15
Speaker
But yeah, if I've got the cash there and I need it, then he's an option. He's definitely an option. For a Docker supporter, like 23, he's still so young. Like he should, he should be, he should be improving. Shouldn't he pre-buy 74, post-buy 79, last 588 coming into his age 23 season. He's shown that high ceiling in the past for those early games in Geelong.
00:16:39
Speaker
Yeah. As a Docker supporter though, I also don't want them chipping around the ball as much in the back line as what they have been. And I want them to be able to win a Senate clearance too, so the ball's not back there as much. That's true.
00:16:51
Speaker
Yeah. Interesting watch on Jordan Clark. The unfortunate thing is they play Port Adelaide in Adelaide this week. So I don't think it's going to be a fair reflection of what he scores. And if he does come out and pump out a good score against a team that's hard to score against, I think that's probably going to give the green light to pick him. Let's move into the midfield now.
Evaluating High-Priced Midfielders
00:17:09
Speaker
I'm actually struggling with the midfield
00:17:12
Speaker
a little bit, I think you're someone that's never liked to pay up for midfielders. You say that, that generally you don't start anyone priced over a hundred if they're not there to pick, whereas I've been a little bit different in the past. I know when I came second in 2021, I started both McCray and Merritt that were priced at over 110 and it just helped that they both started the season going at 120 and that was the value that I needed. But I'm struggling to see a lot of upside in these guys that are priced quite highly. In fact, I'm actually seeing it
00:17:41
Speaker
you know, they're either fairly priced or there's reasons that there might be a little bit of regression. So are you against at the moment with what we've got starting up someone around that sort of 110 mark? Well, I think the last four years the winners have had someone price 116 plus. So there's certainly definitely room, particularly with this rolling lockouts with the two cracks at the captain. Like you want to be having someone to nail that 115 plus. So,
00:18:10
Speaker
depending how confident we are with a Gorn as captain, there's no one in defence. So I think you put the captain on and there's no one in the forward line, you put the captain on. So there is merit to spend up and maybe you won't find someone who's fairly priced or under priced. Maybe it's just fully priced for that upside. Like the issue is you try to think who is it going to be, but we know it's very hard to back up what they've done in the past. Even though he went 123 posts by, Clary's obviously coming off.
00:18:40
Speaker
that pre-season, Zachary Merritt kind of just does Zachary Merritt stuff. I think he's going to, they're going to try to have him a bit more like Lockineer was last year where they're less reliant on Zach Barrett. So he might sort of, I can't see him getting a big boost. The two obvious ones are the young kids from good, strong teams being Errol Gordon and Tom Green, but obviously that early buy throws that out of whack. But I dare say if there was no early buy, that'd be
00:19:05
Speaker
Pretty nice. If you reckon you started with McRae and Merritt that year, I think you could probably pair that Tom Green and Errol. Yeah. What about a Rory Laird? There was word out of today that he's going to play a bit more forward. I don't believe that for a second, but I'm always someone that's a little bit skeptical of having, or just assuming that you're going to have three players in the same team, average, you know, over a hundred. There's been teams that do it.
00:19:32
Speaker
And we saw last year in patches that Adelaide were able to do it. But even when Matt Crouch came in, we had Dawson regress a little bit. Laird just still did Laird things. I think you put up the stat. I think he was 114 post or the last five or whatever it was or when Crouch came in. So the scoring is definitely there. But could we be confident that a Rory Laird is going to come out and go north of that 109 and not be a failed starting pick?
00:19:58
Speaker
Yeah, I didn't love the quote. That's for sure. I also don't believe it. But why say it? I think they definitely need to get those quicker players in the game. And they obviously want to play crap. So they're not going to kick Dawson out the way he's going. So maybe it does make a little bit of sense that led rather than him getting his 82% set of bounces. That might drop to 70%, which, yeah, if he can.
00:20:23
Speaker
If he goes to 70% and averages 105 or 106, then it's not going to be a great starting pick, as you said, but since he's moved in the midfield when 2020 is average 114 price at 109. I don't know, I'm, Ladd's currently in my super coach team as one of my more expensive midfielders. So I was a believer as I said, I didn't, well, I don't believe it. I also didn't love hearing that quote today on Ladd.
00:20:52
Speaker
But I agree with you with that.
00:20:56
Speaker
a certain amount of how much ball can there be to win. I know that they get a lot of stoppages adlaid. And it's funny, I remember this time last year, I was talking out Jager O'Meara, and completely wrong on that. It was one of the biggest fails of last year. And you were like, look, I like O'Meara, but you've got Will Brody's gonna go over a hundred, and you've got Brody's always gonna go over a hundred. But then who knew that Will Brody was out?
00:21:24
Speaker
O'Meara didn't get the kick and it was Sorong who was the one who popped up and went. So you're probably right. You want to be one of those top two in top two scorers in their team. Yeah, I suppose that the one thing that we can fall back on is that, you know, the Bulldogs who played a very similar style last year in terms of very, very high stoppages.
00:21:42
Speaker
They had Bontgo 117, Treloar was 105, but it was even bigger in the back five games. You had Liber who was over 100, and then you even had McRae who still didn't have the role, but was mid-90s for most of the season before dropping off for those last two games. So it can be done. If you can find someone elsewhere that isn't from the same team as someone else, in terms of I'm thinking of starting a lead and a crouch,
00:22:08
Speaker
maybe it's better off to if I want to start crouch to look somewhere elsewhere for lead just in case. Yeah and that's a strategy which I've heard which is if you think that crouch is going to have such a big bump and you're worthwhile starting then it might be coming off lead so you probably shouldn't be starting both of them but I think in their system that they can both succeed and as I said on my super coach I've currently got both of those same players crouch and lead.
00:22:36
Speaker
Yeah. So let's talk a little bit about structure then, because I think at the moment there's two different structures that are floating around. There are people that are looking to start the three rookies in McCurcher, Sanders, and then Sharp. If he shows enough against Port Adelaide on the weekend on that wing, or there's people that are spending down a little bit and looking at more of your Nick Martin, Karl Aemon, Matt Crouch, Ollie Wines types, which might be able to stretch out to only have two rookies on field. But how are you seeing at the moment?
00:23:05
Speaker
I always like reducing those rookies on field and I like the two of McCurch and
00:23:11
Speaker
Sanders, sharp show and he can score but the wing who knows I think is a nice M9 but then Roberts looked okay again tonight from Swans as he pop in there and I think this is where I'm struggling this year trying to find the balance between hunting all that value like those names you said they're all going to outperform their price no question but you're going to have to spend the money somewhere we're not spending the forward line we're not
00:23:37
Speaker
which went through the top end of the defenders.
Budget Allocation: Rucks and Forwards
00:23:40
Speaker
I doubt anyone's putting two or three of those expensive defenders in there. And then the rucks are cheap for those who are wanting to pick. So I think that almost forces our hand that it is, you can spend up on that, on that and then, and have the two rookies on, on the field, on the, on the midfield.
00:24:00
Speaker
Yeah, especially if we're spending down in the forward line, which we'll actually get to in a little bit when we get down there in terms of what a Flanders did tonight and what his role is going forward. Let's just quickly touch over some of these options that are, you know, at the top but not quite at the top.
00:24:17
Speaker
you're back on a Jack Steele, the Jack Steele trainer. You were not negative early in the preseason, but you and Zave were kind of talking through it and wondering whether or not he could get back there. But him being the main guy in the midfield with not a lot of players running through that same field in the midfield and him looking healthy, you're keen to jump on a Jack Steele.
00:24:39
Speaker
Yeah, I wasn't keen seeing how, like Ross Lyons wanting to get pace in and even on the off-season, who'd they get, Liam Henry and Riley Bonner and Malia, like they're so good to watch. It's funny, it's a bit different to the Dockers we used to watch. And I like the Saints. I've said, I've had a lot of the Saints for 15 years, whereas this year I think that they're
00:24:59
Speaker
they're good and just watching him last year he was just caught no man's land so many times they were moving it quick and less stoppages and so well maybe it's moved on he's looking old and slow but he's 28 i still can't believe how young he is being 28 everything went wrong last year in terms of his what do you have that ac joint early came back early from that did the mcl continue to play didn't miss a game with the mcl and then there was that rumor about his achilles had strapping everywhere so
00:25:27
Speaker
And he still managed a 98 average. So that's kind of the sweet spot price I typically like to target. And I'll be nice. I didn't watch this practice match last week. It'll be good to see him running around on the weekend. And if he looks like he's covering the ground well enough, because I think he's going to have to cover the ground. He can't just rely on those tackles he has done in the past. I think he should be good.
00:25:49
Speaker
Yeah. Nah, I agree with you there. You were on record earlier in the preseason saying that although you love LDU as a player, you don't necessarily see him as a pure fantasy gun. Think the Nat Fife's of the past that, you know, although they, you know, he won a brown low, two brown lows, but he only ever averaged 105 as his max. You kind of see LDU in that mold.
00:26:12
Speaker
I do only because I think the opposition attention should come to him, but you mentioned 105. He went 105 post-buy last year and he's priced at 97. If he were to go 105, he's not going to be a bad pick.
00:26:28
Speaker
What did he do? He went 121 from round 17 to around 20, but he's just so good. Like I love him. He's one of my favorite players in real life and he doesn't sort of chip around for the easy footy and he doesn't sort of go backwards when he's got the ball. He just runs straight lines, runs forwards. He's in my team for super coach, but obviously
00:26:49
Speaker
a nice clearance running through inside 50 hits up Lark. He gets him 14 points in Super Coach, only gets you three for fantasy. So I think with these other names who are cheaper than him, who I can't see getting the tag. And that's the one thing about Rory Ladd, he's not going to get a tag.
00:27:06
Speaker
I think a few times in the last couple of years I've been a bit scared the tags and they come because he's been getting these massive numbers. So that's the one tick on lead. I think teams would be silly not to put extra attention on LDU on every stoppage he goes to. Okay, I'll put you on the spot then. Who are these players that are cheaper than LDU that you think have the same sort of scoring potential to match it with some of these bigger premiums?
00:27:31
Speaker
You mentioned Crouch. I wasn't big on him earlier, but same thing, that age 28 season, only Wines is the same, but you've been playing the same time as I have. When we were sort of peaking, these guys were like gun premiums, Wines, Crouch, Jack Steele, and then I just assumed that they were all over 30. I can't believe they're still all 28.
00:27:54
Speaker
So I'd feel safer with a crouch, even though you've got someone who is borderline 22, particularly if Rankin gets more midfield time, Rochelle comes on, Selego, Peddler, and you're not going to drop Laird or Dawson compared to someone who, if there was a schoolyard pick, he'd go the top five in the AFL in the LDU. I think I'd rather the Matt crouch, personally.
00:28:17
Speaker
Let's discuss Ollie Wines a bit because the Port Adelaide midfield has fascinated me. Zach Butters was someone that I put into my team at the start of pre-season and kind of similar to Hayden Young. I didn't think too much of it and he kind of got a free ride for a long time.
00:28:33
Speaker
With Ollie Wines coming back, and I'm not saying Ollie Wines is going to go out and average over 100 and be the main fantasy scorer in that team, but you would have to think if he's in there and he's soaking up 70% CBAs and he's back, you know, not to his prime, because he's not going to win at Brownlow, but he's back playing good footy in that system where they play such a low stoppage game and they just run and gun and they don't score. How can we realistically see Zach Budders go, you know, 107 plus?
00:29:02
Speaker
with those points coming from Wines and, you know, Jason or Francis improving and Rosie still being Rosie.
00:29:10
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know if it was you who was saying it, but maybe their style was around the low stoppage and knock it on because they didn't have a good ruck. They were going in there with Finlayson and injured Scott Lycett. So is that why? Because if you look at their players, like Horned Francis, one of the best clearance players in the comp, Bartos is great at his clearances. He doesn't look it because he's so skinny, but he's a great clearance player. I think last year he averaged
00:29:34
Speaker
4.4 clearances per game and gets a lot more contested possessions and you'd think from someone that size so
00:29:42
Speaker
How does he get better? Yeah, those metrics don't say that, but the fact he went 110 last five, he's only 23. I can see the attention coming to him and that's the only reason why I can't see him improving. I think any system he's going to, he bobs up for outside marks. He gets in and under and wins contested footy. He kind of has that nice inside outside blend that I think he certainly can improve. It wasn't for opposition attention.
00:30:10
Speaker
Yeah. Are you, you're warming to the idea of starting in Ollie Wines, thinking that potentially you can go back over 90 and be just a decent value option to get his, to get our cash rolling to start the year before the premium start to emerge? Yeah, no buy and the price. I want to watch him on the weekend and how they all go.
00:30:32
Speaker
But again, where's this cash going to be spent if we're taking a haircut on that top end there, top end defenders, midfielders and forwards? Is it an Ollie Wines who priced at 78 and might go in the 90s or is that where you go?
00:30:48
Speaker
You move someone priced in the 90s up to the ones we spoke about before, the lead type, so you can put the VC or C on and get that 115 times two instead of having all these players who cap out at the 100 marks. At the moment, I've got to watch him closely. At the moment, I haven't got wines in my Super Coach team, but it's between him and Crouch for that position for me.
00:31:15
Speaker
And just before we move on to the rucks, you're still against starting a Nick Martin-Amon type in the midfield, hoping that they get DPP in round seven. You'd much rather wait for the DPP to actually happen and then look at them if they're a top six.
00:31:30
Speaker
I'll need to watch both of them, particularly Martin who two very good judges in JD and then also Tommy who does a lot of stuff for Super Coach for me. They're both Essendon supporters and normally, particularly Tommy, he's normally like you are with your own team. You're quite negative about players from your team and you're realistic, whereas he's very bullish on Nick Martin. I heard JD on your chat, bullish as well.
00:31:57
Speaker
But I've obviously watched more of Nick Martin than I have. I keep going back to it, but I need to snap out of that the fact that he never had more than 24 possessions in the waffle. And now we're expecting to go 105 in AFL, but that's the role and we know he can score. I think he...
00:32:13
Speaker
Well, he had that patch around 10 to around 15 last year, averaging 113 on the wing. And we know that no one scores or wings. And now he's going to play that perfect role of distribution. So maybe, I've got to watch him. At the moment, he's not on my radar for super coach, but good judges of super coach, putting him straight in there.
00:32:32
Speaker
Yeah, I think what's interesting about it is Popowski puts out all his worthwhile averages, which coincidentally line up pretty well with what you've preached on your podcast in terms of what players need to average to be successful picks. So Nick Martin as a midfielder would need to average over 100 to be a worthwhile pick, but a defender at the same price would only need to go from 85 up to 94 to be a worthwhile pick, and there's someone that's going to be close enough
00:32:56
Speaker
to the top of their line and if you're swinging him back in round seven then you know maybe you know if he can get himself to 95 then that's going to be a very good pick so that's one thing to think about we're kind of judging him against the other midfielders but it's only seven rounds and if he does if he's playing full-time defense and he's going to swing back there then
00:33:14
Speaker
Yeah, I am interested. I do want to see it, but I do know that I think I had a look at the stats last week and that the Essendon, if you averaged out the top five defenders from each team, they actually had the most points going around, but they then also only had, I think Mason Redmond be the highest averaging defender at 86. So they're not afraid to share it around back there. So that's probably my biggest flag at the moment. Yeah. And that's what my flag was as well. Ridley, who I had in super coach, he took all the kick ins and go short and
00:33:44
Speaker
I've got a Redman who gets it and boots at 60, but that's what Tommy was saying.
Impact of Essendon Defenders Sharing Points
00:33:50
Speaker
Redman just gets a ball and boots at 60 metres and it goes nowhere when it comes back, or Ridley just plays it far too safe and is a bit slow with his kicks. They need someone to come in there. I think it was Nick Hind who was pretty good back end of last year, but he's now playing the forward line. I was with you, especially with
00:34:07
Speaker
Andy Magrada as well. I've got plenty of players who can kick the footy in their back line, but I think I've found a need. So we'll watch it. JD, I swear, did he say 105 at one point on your podcast? He did say 105, yeah. And he even went on to say that that 105 was conservative. He could have even been better. So JD is pegging him to be the D2 behind Daikos.
00:34:30
Speaker
Yeah. What's the role? Yeah. Yeah. All right. Midfield. So let's move on to the rocks. So the talk, the whole process is that there's three rocks that we need to pick from. We've got gone, we've got granny and we've got cherry.
00:34:44
Speaker
I think if you were hot on gone before, like I think a lot of people should be his role in the game yesterday and how he looks. I think you just absolutely have to lock that in knowing that also you're potentially going to have a second captain option there that has ceiling of 160 on his day. But Grundy, Grundy and Cherry, Grundy's the interesting one because they've spent pretty big on Grundy not having played good football for five years and being on a slow decline. And you famously say that he was the one that picked McRae and
00:35:14
Speaker
from a footy sense, he's pretty good at seeing these players and picking the decline. So Grundy was pretty horrible tonight. He didn't score well, but they did play two rucks and they played a few extra tools as well. So I don't think that's necessarily reflective of how they're going to line up in round zero. And we will get the look, but you know, do we go Grundy or do we go Cherry?
00:35:34
Speaker
Good question. Good question. This is one where I've gone because there's only a couple options. I'm just going to pass on it because obviously I've got people who subscribed to the Mirrors Magic site. Grunty did look poor. It would be very interesting to see what would have happened if there was no Round Zero and we only had that performance and score to go off to pick your team next week and how that would go for ownerships because
00:35:59
Speaker
I think he was the highest owned out of the three of them before Gorns match up and I reckon after this weekend he might be the lowest owned but as I said I'm just going to pass on that one.
00:36:10
Speaker
Yeah. And I think what's interesting with that as well, he, Big O, he's always been Big O's bunny. Even 2021 is last year at Collingwood when he averaged 90. That was, that was down by a game against Brisbane where he scored a 50. I think Big O's always had his, had his measure. So I don't think that's necessarily reflective of how he's going to score during the year, but it's definitely something to think of. Once again, we've all just kind of had him in there.
00:36:36
Speaker
a bit of a free ride thinking that he's just going to go back to his 100 ways now that he's solo ruck. But maybe Zave's right. Maybe there's a little bit more to it and maybe he's not the smash pick that we think he is. But yeah, we'll skip the ruck. That's fair enough. Then you've got to give me a bit of time in the forwards. Flanders tonight didn't have the role. He didn't get as many CBAs as he did the week prior. And
00:37:00
Speaker
What seemed pretty obvious to me was that Gold Coast under dimmer, I don't think they're going to be big scorers, especially up there at Metricon, you know, under the slippery footy with the dew and the way they're going to play under dimmer. We saw Sexton go big. We saw Powell go big. That's how they play. They chip around in the back line, but then they go and these midfielders don't seem to score. So there's definitely a worry now on Flanders.
00:37:24
Speaker
Yeah, so in terms of CBAs, if it wasn't for coaching change, I think that wouldn't impact because he didn't have a heap of CBAs in the back. He was almost better when he came up from the half forward line and roamed and did exactly what he wanted. 38% he had post buy for his 105 and 32% last fire for his 112.
00:37:44
Speaker
That's not the concern. The pre-season buzz, not a concern. You speak to anyone, whether even dimmer himself, I think he was asked, who would you pick in your super coach? And he mentioned Flanders and everyone's talking Flanders. So yeah, the score was certainly underwhelming. And the fact he was probably the fourth peg in that midfield group was underwhelming. And you're right, like those Richmond days with their midfielders were never scoring much over 90. And you're half backers of a Basha Hawley and a Jayden Short were their big scorers.
00:38:14
Speaker
Is it gonna be that and I think where he is bringing their game style I was listening to them now someone interviewing Noah Anderson and He was saying how like dim is talking about all this stuff and I was like, oh yeah, that's it You would do it that it gets us, you know like exactly whatever Richmond was doing they're doing that here and as you know the Half forwards and the midfielders weren't high scorers. So yeah, it's a concern. We've got this early by Round zero. Sorry to say like if Flanders comes out and goes 110 then
00:38:45
Speaker
you're going to get a nice little price bump, but then you've also got that early buy too. So that's, that's a tough one. I know some people are thinking it's not, it's only, it's still best say they don't worry about these early buyers, but I still think there's enough players to pick who across all lines where you can let that make the decision for you and avoid these early buy around players.
00:39:07
Speaker
Yeah, I think this year has a few parallels with how you started back in 2020 and not many coaches would have started this way.
00:39:16
Speaker
You kind of buck the trend a bit, but 2020 was the year that you started. I think it was five mid prices in the forward line, right? So you had Brayshore, Bailey Smith. I think there was a couple others as well. I think this year, that's what we're going to look at here. You know, I'm not confident picking a Flanders. I'm definitely not going the cray off his limited preseason. Taylor Adams, which we haven't touched on yet, who's done a slight medial in this game here. So he's going to be touching go for round zero.
00:39:40
Speaker
you know, that leaves, you know, starting potentially an F1 that might only be priced in the seventies or maybe even lower. So how do you see that? Yeah, I've done that before, as you said, and the advantage typically with that is you get rid of a rookie off your field. So I remember I didn't have Grundy that year and they played the first game of the season. I think you scored like a 130 or massive round one score and I didn't have him, but I still was ranked. I think I was ranked.
00:40:09
Speaker
700 or something, or maybe even 200 after round one. So it just shows you don't have to have those top end guys as long as you've got the distribution, because it meant I didn't have a few low rookie scores. The thing with the forward line is that there's some very cheap options, which you can feel like your forward line anyway.
00:40:25
Speaker
and happy to have them on the field, whether it's a Lazaro or a Sexton or we'll speak about Harley Reid soon, but even the Geelong Mature Age rookie, if it's Darcy Wilson from McKeel, like there's some good rookies in the forward line that the advantage of, typically the advantage of going these mid prices means one less rookie, but sometimes these rookies here or this year aren't too bad in this position. But yeah, I'm okay with going that mid price heavy, particularly because I've all got upside and the top end guys don't,
00:40:56
Speaker
I'll get your opinion on some of these players because there's a few floating around. So some of the mid-priced options I'm at least looking at. The cheaper guys. So you've got a Jack Billings who actually looked all right against Carlton. He seemed like he was playing high half forward but wing at times pushing up.
00:41:13
Speaker
whether or not that sticks with Hunter coming back at some stage, who knows, but he actually looked all right for his first real hit out in a while. You've got Nat Fife, who is playing midfield at Frio, but how his scoring is, we're not too sure in terms of purely being inside and never being a big tackler.
00:41:30
Speaker
one that i'm kind of warming to and i like the look of as long as he's best 22 and he's got the role is tom powell he's always been a scorer we saw in his first year he burst onto the scene when he did have the did have the midfield role and he's kind of been pushed out ever since but he had massive junior numbers and i think in the right role he could be a decent cash generator for us as well
00:41:49
Speaker
And then there's James Jordan, who tonight played pretty much the wing in the first half when Adams and those guys were around. But after Adams went down, he saw a bit of a CBA jump in that fourth quarter. And I mean, he was scoring all well, scoring well throughout the game anyway, so that didn't really matter. But how many of these guys can we pick and who are you interested in?
00:42:11
Speaker
The riskiest one of all of them is Tom Powell because, as you said, you're not sure his best 22. He's still pretty expensive at 5.18. He isn't guaranteed, even if you were to play to play in the midfield and if he's playing, could he be subbed or get subbed out? But they're the ones of that year you spoke about all those midfielders where
00:42:32
Speaker
You had to take that punt on the hope that they were going to go and get midfield rolling. If they do, they're going to be smash picks. He's the age profile, age 22, that his body's not going to break down on him. And he's going to, if he plays the right role, as you said, he's a big scorer.
00:42:46
Speaker
In Junies, I think he averaged 119 in Sandfield Colts in his draft year. Whereas the other ones are all pretty well established players and they've been already in the good role. So whether it's a five-year, but he comes with that injury risk and age risk and rest risk.
00:43:05
Speaker
Billings, who I think he's going to be more outside now than what I initially was interested in him about, but he's, I think he's had those big seasons at St Kilda when he was at high half forward, pushes up, takes lots of marks, kicks the ball, could kick to handball ratio. Out of all of them, I think Jordan's my favorite, but again, we'll see in round zero what he does score, but he's proven before at AFL level, even on a wing.
00:43:30
Speaker
he can score fine. And if he's inside, he can score even better. So he's probably my favorite. Fifey for the role was very good, but yeah, you know, full well with his injury risk. Tom Powers, I really want him to break out, but that's the one where you are, you're almost just going on a hunch if you think he's good, unless we see on the weekend that he's
00:43:52
Speaker
He's starting midfield rotation because what at the moment they'll, LDU is definitely going to be in there. Ward law, when he's healthy, he's definitely going to be in there. We're just, Sim can chop out a little bit, maybe not. Lazaro, they've been talking up him all pre-season. So maybe he is the fourth midfielder and if that's all he needs, do I know we spoke about the midfield group that you don't want your player being the fourth?
00:44:16
Speaker
rotation or Flanders, but if Tom powers the fourth man in the midfield rotation and gets his 55% of ounces, then I think he could be the best of the lot of them.
00:44:26
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's a little bit different when you're picking your players the fourth mid and you need them to go from 90 to 100 plus when he's priced at 55 or whatever it is and can go 75, 80. I think it's a little bit different, but he probably fits the mold of your strategy, of your tarantos, all of those of the past where you just don't start them, but if round one rolls around and they've got the role and they really look good, then you're more than happy to jump on there. Would you agree?
00:44:53
Speaker
Yeah, and I haven't got the price predictor here, but.
00:44:57
Speaker
Well, and I do love how fantasy players move price from round one or from the first game, whereas that's the knock on supercoach is that they're complete free hits. You see the first two rounds of them and the prices don't move, and then you can do your trades up to three trades with boosts and get on to someone before they even move in price. But fantasy, it's good that you are going to pay the premium, but I'd rather pay that small premium for a bit more security and certainty.
00:45:24
Speaker
You can at that price point, yes, he's going to go up in cash if you punch out a 90-85 in round one, but I'd rather pay that extra price knowing that he's had that ability. And that's why this round zero is such a free hit for those Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast players, because you get that without having to waste a trade on them. You can start with them knowing you're going to get that price built into it.
00:45:49
Speaker
You touched on him before, before we finish off. So Harley Reid, what are you thinking
Harley Reid's Fantasy Prospects
00:45:53
Speaker
with Harley Reid? Because we don't like to put too much weight into these preseason practice games. These ones this weekend, the more official ones we like to look at for more role clarity and more of a real hit out. But practice games, we don't generally take too much out of other than our players are fit and healthy, but he looked a bit of a step off it in his first real sort of hit out for the Eagles.
00:46:15
Speaker
looked a couple of steps off it. And everyone, well, anyone on shoot always says, which is true, he's going to be a high impact player. He's not going to be, he's not a McCurcher. He didn't get 40 possessions in juniors. He, I don't even, I think he got one ton last year in the, uh, or the coats league, I think it was called last year. So he's certainly not an accumulator.
00:46:38
Speaker
But then you hear people from West Coast who are close to him who are saying that if they had to rank their players, not on potential, but on this year, he'd be top five. He's stepping right into one of their best players already. I dare say that's a bit of an indication on where West Coast are at, but they're buying into the hype and they've seen a lot of him at training.
00:47:01
Speaker
As it stands, I've got him in my super coach and I doubt I'm going to move him. I don't mind your theory of putting him on the bench even though he's an expensive bench option. I think we might have that extra funding this year to do that because we're taking haircuts elsewhere and if he performs, you get the cash gen and it only would be one or two weeks before you're going to have to
00:47:20
Speaker
have players on their by and you'll be able to get him on the field anyway with people on their by, like a James Jordan or whoever it is. So you still will use him, but you don't have to take that risk in round one of having him on the field because I know one of your good strategies is jumping off the highly owned players before the rest. And if Harley Reid does get a 30 or 40 in round one and you haven't got him on your field, then that could be a great way to get the kicker.
00:47:45
Speaker
Yep. Yep. Beautiful. All right. Before we wrap up, can you just give us a little bit more of an in-depth plug on your new fantasy game?
Introducing Bolter Fantasy Platform
00:47:53
Speaker
Because I'm really keen. I haven't looked into it as much just yet, but I'm keen to get a bit of an insight from you of what it's going to offer and how it sort of differs from the fantasy game we normally play.
00:48:04
Speaker
Yes. So Boulter it's called and the domain is bolter.team. And it's come about, we started the AFLW fantasy a couple of years ago before there was the one for the official one. So we've kind of had the tech built for running a fantasy comp. There's probably no urgent need for a second or third comp, including fantasy or fourth comp, including real DT. But
00:48:31
Speaker
The plan is to evolve it into a draft, a more customized draft platform, which I think there is a need for, whether that is one where you can trade future picks in keeper leagues, or if you can do auction drafts or category leagues. So we've got some plans for that, but to get to that stage, we needed to
00:48:48
Speaker
or we need things such as DPPs and flexible scoring and stuff like that, which we're going to need for classic anyway. So we've got ourselves as classic products, we thought why not just roll it out, particularly this year when there's so many different things going on in the main game where we can sort of differentiate and try to make it a little bit less consuming way to play fantasy and
00:49:08
Speaker
whether it's with the fixed lockouts being on a Saturday so you'll know the teams come Friday teams and put your team in and not have to worry about your loopholes or your bench swaps or laid outs or subs. We've got a in real life AFL if someone gets an early injury then that team subs on someone else so why not in fantasy so we've got it if
00:49:29
Speaker
you've got a player who plays less than 40% time on ground, you'll get your emergency score if that emergency is higher. So no need to worry if your player on a Sunday becomes the sub and plays less than 40% time on ground, you'll get your emergency score. Anyway, the positions we've chucked in some flexibility again, trying to be like real life AFL where a real life team has to pick six defenders each week, one ruck, five mids and six forwards. And then there's four sitting on the bench who can be from anywhere. So we've kind of done the same where
00:49:59
Speaker
You've got to pick the 666 and then four players you can pick from any position. So come round one, you can start Cherry, Gorn, Grundy, even Soldo. Pick four, bent four, rucks on your field, so be it if you want. So it's starting off in round zero, so you'll be able to pick all those players we spoke about where the hesitation is that early by, Dacos, Golden, Tom Green, Sexton, all these players.
00:50:25
Speaker
and then after round zero which we're going to have a bonus prize I'll announce it soon but it's going to be significant enough for hopefully people if they don't want to juggle multiple teams they can just play that one round zero and then
00:50:56
Speaker
something like a Callum Mills of last year, a three, and they were your captain, all of a sudden, this is a bit of a backup where you won't get that three, you won't get that captain score, your vice captain kicks in if it has less than 40% time on ground. So it's an evolving product. I'm pretty happy with how it's currently looking and operating. We've come a long way from
00:50:57
Speaker
give up on it.
00:51:15
Speaker
of the finals footy fantasy in 2022 we run but we've got big ambitions for making some new fun products going forward particularly around the draft space or even maybe it could be these one week comps like this round zero where you've put so much time and effort which I do too into your classic team sometimes it's good having a little side thing just to run one without much pressure and have a crack at it.
00:51:39
Speaker
Yeah, mate, sounds elite just on that round zero. So you've got a full salary cap. So you need to pick a team from round zero players inside of your normal salary cap before you then pick a team in round one. Yep. So salary cap in this game. And again, we've made it a bit more simple where the salary caps are 1.75 mil, which if you divide the salary cap of the real life AFL by the magic number, it becomes 1.75. So
00:52:08
Speaker
Essentially, everyone's price is what they're priced at. Tim English averaged $118.7k last year. He's $118.7k. It's quite easy to work out what someone's priced at and if they're good value or bad value, that $557,000 or whatever it ends up being.
00:52:24
Speaker
you have to fit your round zero team in that salary cap and then the prices will move after round zero so you might not be able to build the exact same team as your classic but hopefully you'll pick players in your round zero which will either hold price or go up in price and you might be able to fit in a bit more in this one than
00:52:42
Speaker
your classic. But yeah, I encourage everyone to the very least to check out the platform at bolter.team, give some feedback and throw in a team for this round zero. Um, cause I think there'll be a bit of fun. And then if you, if you like it, enjoy it, we could, we've got leagues so you can, if you want to play purely for leagues and you've got some people who run the loopholes and run the, uh,
00:53:07
Speaker
laid out so they're all over it and typically they get the favour. You might want to run your legs through this comp because they're fixed lockout and a bit more customisation. Where can the listeners go to find your season guide for this year that is once again looking absolutely elite and a must-have?
Promoting Moreira's Magic Season Guide
00:53:26
Speaker
It's no longer a must have because there's so much good content out there. I do say that, but mariramagic.com.au or you find us on Twitter and the links on the bio. And yeah, check it out. As I said, when we first started, there was not a heap of content out there. So I think it was almost that, but now, as I said, with such good content out there, you certainly don't need it, but we try to make it like you do. And unfortunately, you've lost old Dossie there because he was big on that too.
00:53:54
Speaker
We try to make it a bit more of an entertainment piece as well where hopefully people actually, you're not just getting the advice, which you can get other places too, but you're also getting some enjoyment out of it as well. Yeah, nah, beautiful mate. Well, thank you so much for jumping on. I really appreciate your time and I'm looking forward to hearing your last few chats with Zave as we close in on round zero and really tackling this fantasy season that we haven't seen before. It's going to be good.
00:54:20
Speaker
Cheers, homzy, and all the best. I've enjoyed your content all pre-season. Sad to see Dossy go, but you've got a great team there. I've loved listening to Stado and Big Army, so keep it up. No worries, mate. Thanks again, and we'll chat soon. Cheers, mate.