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Round 9 Review Featuring DT Lemon | Strategy Round Table | AFL Fantasy Q&A | #PODPOD
4.2k Plays6 months ago
After the chaos of round 8, round 9 treated coaches to a bit of normality as we saw some big scoring return to AFL Fantasy. Captains were back with ceiling scores from popular premiums such as Marshall, Daicos and Butters which saw many coaches pushing above 2200 and even further north! However, many issues are starting to appear with a change of role for Harry Sheezel, many of the popular rookie options starting to max out in price and our forward lines still looking like absolute chaos!!
We dug deep this week on the podcast… with the panel containing 6 hats between them, 4 top ten finishes and a current average 2024 rank of…. 9k!!! Join Holmesy, Harmey and special guest DT Lemon as they review their rounds, discuss a number of the key strategies for round 10 and answer a stack of listener questions. As we continue to grind through this bumper AFL Fantasy season, the PODPOD crew have you covered each week to ensure you keep improving your teams and climbing the ranks! Enjoy!!
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Transcript
Introduction of John Harmy
00:00:19
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod. It's Holmsey here talking all things AFL fantasy classic live for you this Monday, 13th of May. Yeah, that's right, Monday. We're back on Monday this week. We have managed to get one of our regular panel members back. We do have two-time top 10 finisher John Harmy with us.
00:00:38
Speaker
Hami, glad to have you back on the podcast, mate. I thought you'd go and walk about and you weren't coming back, but it's nice of you to join us. How are you going? Thanks, host Hamzi. Yes, I was actually away for work last week, but it was pretty convenient given the awful run of events that was my fantasy team. So I wasn't that gutted when you changed your date and I couldn't make it to the pod.
00:01:05
Speaker
Yeah, I don't think I can really say it was much better this weekend, but I guess we'll get into that shortly. Do I need to have the sad music queued up ready to go? Damn right you do.
Financial Strategies in Fantasy Football
00:01:19
Speaker
All right, I'll have it on standby, but we do have another special guest joining us and this coach currently has a million dollars extra in his bank than me. Just waiting to get put on field. He's a master when it comes to building team values and I'm sure he's going to start flying as I start going backwards. We have DT Lemon with us again. Lemon, thanks for joining us. How are you going at the moment?
00:01:43
Speaker
Yeah, thanks for having me on mate. And it's, um, I think team Valley is the only thing I've done right this year. I'm, uh, slowly slipping away from you, but yeah, we just got to get it on the field and, and hopefully we'll come home strong. So, uh, yeah, the back half of the season can't come soon enough, I think.
00:01:58
Speaker
And I did forget to mention two-time hat winner as well, so six hats between us. Clearly the glory days are well behind us, but you know, let's give it a crack and see how we go. So why don't we get into the round that was? So, Hami, I'll start with you, mate. We're in dossy areas with your rank, so don't be too shy because we do need someone out in these ranks to give a bit of a different perspective. But what did you score and where are you ranking at the moment?
00:02:25
Speaker
Yes, and you're not wrong there with what you're saying. Let's have a look.
00:02:31
Speaker
I scored 2030, which puts my overall rank at 18,459. Now, that may sound like a long way since I was on the podcast last two weeks ago. And you'd be correct in saying that. So the unfortunate circumstance of having Rosie trading in Tom Green for his seven
00:03:00
Speaker
So then I had last week, Graham omitted and I had Zach Williams, Yo, Rosie and Sweet all out injured. And my solution to that was trading in Jack Sinclair. So it's been a cruel twist of fate. So hopefully I've got a bit of bad luck out of the way, mate, and some good luck coming my way, putting out some good vibes into the fantasy community.
00:03:29
Speaker
Far out, when you put it like that, it's such a shit game that we play, isn't it? The Jack Sinclair move, he was right this week, soft matchup. We saw all of the St Kilda mids and half backs go absolutely bonkers, and for some reason, he couldn't find the pill after 150 the week before. So I do feel for your harmony, that's really
Performance Challenges and Improvements
00:03:48
Speaker
rough. But Lemon, why don't you let the listeners know where you're scoring and where you're ranked at the moment?
00:03:54
Speaker
Yeah, so I scored a 21-33 on the weekend, which I was pretty happy with given I had Rosie on the bench and had a few bullets the week before. So it was nice just to get through unscathed. That did slide me down. I'm just hanging inside the top 7,000 at the moment, which is a ranking I haven't been down at for a long, long time. So not really sure what to do down here. I just want to get as quickly up there as I can.
00:04:22
Speaker
Uh, yeah, it's been a tough couple of weeks like army. It's, uh, there's just been a brutal couple of weeks, I think for a lot of coaches out there and, um, hopefully it'll turn the corner. Yeah. Like I said, off the top, mate, you've got all that team value, um, sitting there ready to go. I will just before we get into mine now that, uh, Tristan Cherry's dropped a stinker. Are you going to look to move him on quickly or you're happy to just ride him through his bike? I'm sure we'll get to that later, but what are you thinking there?
00:04:49
Speaker
Yeah, I mean that the tough matchup against Jared wits and up in up in Darwin as well. So I was expecting a lower score. Obviously that was pretty poor from him. I still like the the idea that he can stay through in my team through the by rounds you can cover him with sweet.
00:05:06
Speaker
at his buy and that just sort of saves a potential bringing in a ruckman who's going to miss a week and you're going to have 21 that week. So I've thought about swinging him up to English or Marshall, but I think he lives another day in my team. Yeah, I just wanted to mention it because you were the pioneer of the three rucks strategy. So Update, you've moved one of them on to Jordan Sweet, is that correct?
00:05:31
Speaker
Yep, I moved Grundy on last week or the week before, I think. I actually already brought in Jordan Sweet the week prior though, just to sort of get ahead of the curve. So I've now just got Cherry and Gorn with Sweet on the bench and I've got a ruckslash forward donut sitting in my forward line as well, just if I need it.
00:05:53
Speaker
I think it's worked out okay, the three-rock strategy. I think there's a lot of coaches who are highly ranked who've done it. Certainly has helped me with cash-gen, just getting the best value plays elsewhere, so pretty happy with how it's gone. But yeah, I don't think it's been a slam dunk like I thought it would be.
00:06:10
Speaker
Yeah, can we just just quickly deep dive on that again? I mean, it's probably going to be a while again before we have so many viable ruck options. But do you feel like it was the right play doing it all again, or do you feel like you potentially gave away gave away too many points on field? So, yeah, your team values where you want it to be, but your rankings not quite there at the moment because of giving up points on field.
00:06:33
Speaker
I don't think I gave up too many points on field, to be honest, because a lot of the guys I was looking at to spend the cash haven't performed really well at all. So I was looking at Tom Stewart. I was looking at bringing in like a Bontum Pelly or an Angus Brayshore or some of these guys. These top premiums I wasn't happy with. And so I decided to spend the cash on my ruck bench.
00:07:00
Speaker
Yeah, I think I'm pretty comfortable. I probably lost maybe 50, 100 points, and then I think I probably gained a bit of that back by having the three rucks. But also, I lost a few points by putting the wrong ruck on field a few times. I switched between Grundy and Cherry a bit, and that cost me maybe 100, 150 points. So if I'd picked correctly, or even just a little bit better, that might have helped me a little bit more as well. Yeah, it's definitely contributed to me being back in the ranks a little bit, though.
00:07:30
Speaker
I think that from an outsider's perspective, and I didn't have the three rucks that you did, I think that the best 18 early on probably assisted those that started with the three rucks because there were some good rookie scores popping in that period and probably would have helped a little bit, I reckon.
00:07:55
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, so a bit of a bit of a redirect there. I was just I was just keen to jump into that lemon before we get too far into it. I was very interested in a strategy I've never really sort of contemplated, but watching you guys go about it next year, this year, it's definitely something I'll be more open to.
00:08:12
Speaker
in the future. My round I had at 2275 which took me up about 1500 spots to 2179 so pretty happy considering I slid out to 4.8 only two weeks ago so that's two weeks of some positive climbing again. Did have to go sideways on Yo and Rosie which maybe might mean that I hit a bit of a cliff soon having to use some of that money to upgrade with some of my rookies topping out but yeah pretty happy with how it went this week and
00:08:39
Speaker
hopefully can continue moving on.
Standout Picks of the Week
00:08:41
Speaker
Hami, why don't you give us your make Stado great again pick for the week.
00:08:45
Speaker
Okay, well, there isn't that many to choose from, to be fair. But I'm going to give it to, I'll give it to Tom Green with his 98. He broke my heart last week, but I was half expecting him to be a laid out and then I'd be sucking up Jay Clark's 44 and it would have gone even worse. So I needed him to play and he came through with the 98 points. I think that might have top score for GWS, midfield.
00:09:13
Speaker
eventually. So yeah, I'll throw it his way and just, you know, as a boost of confidence to make sure he keeps turning up with his ankle strapped. Yeah, don't mind that, Hami. It was a good hold in the end. And yeah, now that he's got through that game, he's going to be a target for all of us. I would have thought, Lemon, what's your stato pick for the week?
00:09:34
Speaker
Yeah, I couldn't split it between these two, but, but Sharpe and Chloe C, I think, um, at this time of year, we don't have that many rookies on field. And, um, those two really delivered plus probably a few other high scoring rookies. So I think just if you can get a rookie that's going, you know, 80, 90 plus at this time of year, it just helps you so much. Um, you know, they performed better than some of my fully priced players. So, um, yeah, got to give it to those two for delivering in a week where I needed every point I could get really.
00:10:04
Speaker
I tell you what, and Harmee, you're going to hate this because you don't own him, but Jeremy Sharp, I was at that game on the weekend and he just sits out on that wing and he does not come off the ground, but it's his role to just sit out there beyond the ground for 90 to 95% and they use him. He looked good.
00:10:20
Speaker
So yeah, that's a big score and it means we can write his price for a while yet to his buy and maybe even a little bit after he's not someone you really want to upgrade just yet. So yeah, love that from you. Lemon, my plus three goes to Nick Daikos as the captain. So 131, everything I could have asked for and more.
00:10:39
Speaker
I traded Rosie to Tim English this week and had the VC on him. And with the 109, I was a little bit unsure of whether or not I'd take the risk on a 109, but in the end, decided to take the punt on Daikos. And yeah, 131 as captain definitely contributed to my good round. So very happy there.
Disappointments and Strategic Trades
00:10:58
Speaker
Hami, what is your Dossi pick for the week? We don't have too long, so don't name your whole team. All right.
00:11:06
Speaker
I'll give you another one, HomeZee, that's a bit unusual. So I had Jordan Sweet out, Crook. So this one here, I thought I was pretty clever because I still had Luke Jackson. So flipped a few things around, put him into the ruck line there, sitting next to Max Gorn. Luke Darcy out. I thought, you beauty, he's in for a decent score. 73.
00:11:36
Speaker
And he might have been lucky to get to that because he is not very impressive at all, so he can have my Dossie pick for the weak opponent. I think he was on near 50 at half-time too, Hami, like a few of the Freo boys. I think he couldn't get near it in the second half, but I think you've got to kind of give the Freo boys a bit of a mulligan for that game, Hami, with everything they had going on with the death of McCarthy.
00:12:01
Speaker
Yeah, pretty unfortunate matchup, but yeah, you would have thought with Sean Darcy being out, you would have hoped for at least an 80 pluses as the main rough, but not to be lemon. What's your Dossie pick for the week?
00:12:13
Speaker
Yeah, Dossie Pick has to go to Jordan Clark for me. He's probably one of my more unique players. He's been a pretty decent pick up until now, but 57 on the weekend got a really, really hard tag from Jordan in something that I think we're going to see a lot more of, which is just scary for a fantasy coach to see Jordan hanging off your
00:12:35
Speaker
in one of your start offenders. Yeah, he just could not get any separation at all. He was slow, just sort of running around, just completely deflated, I think. So I'm hoping that means teams don't tag him again. I'm hoping they just sort of find something else to do with their four taggers. But I think he actually plays Sydney after his buy sometime as well. So
00:12:58
Speaker
Uh, pretty, pretty unfortunate. I'll probably still have to hold him through the bias because I've got bigger issues at the moment. But, um, yeah, it was, uh, it was a tough one to stomach 57 points from a, a premium book. Yeah. At least, you know, bright light, they have St. Kilda this week. So very, very green matchup for defenders. So I'm sure he'll go 97 like he has for the most of the year, maybe 98 or 99 this week. Who knows?
00:13:23
Speaker
My dossy pick for the week, a bit of a low-hanging fruit. Uh, Harry Shiesel, um, lost that defender role. We did see it the week before. Some savvy coaches without bullets might've looked to jump off him last week, although we have seen him lose it and then get it back in the past.
00:13:39
Speaker
So it would have been a brave coach, but last week was definitely the week to do it. And we are going to talk about it coming up in the hot topics on whether it is a play to jump off in, because let's be honest, playing in that forward midfield role at North, not exactly conducive to fantasy scoring, and he's going to find it a lot tougher. But yeah, 71, maybe you give him a pass for being up in Darwin, maybe it turns around, but maybe he's not a top six defender anymore. And with that buy, maybe some good coaches look to get off him.
00:14:07
Speaker
All right, before we get into the hot topics, quick Pod Pod Challenge update. We still have three coaches in the top 10, so that hasn't changed. Still with the number one, number nine, and number 10th coach, which is very good to see. 11 coaches in the top 100, so let's keep that rolling in and hopefully we can get more coaches in there. That would be great.
00:14:30
Speaker
Unfortunately, the Pod Pod's biggest fan has emailed in this week and he's made a request to scrap Dossy Watch off the podcast this week. Read into that what you will, but unfortunately we've had to can that. So yeah, stay tuned for more updates on Dossy Watch. All right, let's get into some hot topics now. So Lemon, I'm going to start with you.
00:14:55
Speaker
I mentioned his name before, Harry Sheasel. So someone like yourself who has good, uh, good cash gen on the bench. So you're not necessarily worried like I am about turning over a Harvey Thomas, Lazaro, all these players that are starting to go backwards in cash.
00:15:13
Speaker
Is jumping off Harry Schiesel this week down to another keeper, whether you can go DPP to the mids or whether you can go down to an under-priced keeper in defence, is that a play for you this week if it means that you can get up on the other end and say get a Matt Roberts up to another keeper or an under-priced premium? What are you thinking with Harry Schiesel?
00:15:32
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's definitely a tricky one. I think for me, I've got I've basically got Dempsey and Roberts on my bench at the moment. So there's two pretty easy if there's a rookie that I like, I'll take one of them down one of them up and I'll be able to get enough cash to get the guy I want on the other end. So
00:15:48
Speaker
For me, I think both of those guys are going to lose just as much cash as she's all this week, or pretty similar anyway, and it's improving my team a bit more by taking them. But if you're in another position and you're not really happy with your team value and the cash you've got sitting on your bench, maybe you can't get the guy you want if you downgrade a bench rookie. It's definitely a play.
00:16:11
Speaker
You're really banking on this role lasting though. That's the thing. And you know, it just takes one injury. It takes a little bit of form change. You know, maybe the coach, you know, maybe she's will get a bit sore and they decide to put them at half back for a few weeks just to freshen up.
00:16:27
Speaker
It's a really tough one this time of year to sort of, you're banking on it happening for at least another five weeks, maybe 10. So I don't, I don't love it as a play. I think I'd rather just hold him and wait for it to turn around. But if you're in a tight spot and you don't love the rookies presenting, it might be the risk you need to take. Hami, do you have any opposing thoughts to Harry Scheisel? I mean, it's going back a long time now, but
00:16:55
Speaker
in 2018 when I sort of made my charge towards my first top 10, we had a Toby McLean, which is really taking us back. But he was a top six forward for the first half of the year. I think he was going at 95.
00:17:08
Speaker
And he, he lost his midfield role and Dunkley took it. And I was very quick to go from McLean down to Dunkley to make the cash and they actually flipped. And that was one of the big reasons that I was able to accelerate myself up the ranks because everyone still was holding onto McLean thinking that he was still a top six forward and I was able to make a jump. So do you think for the savvy coach, it's a risk worth taking to jump off Schiezel at this time of the year?
00:17:33
Speaker
It depends on what your other trade is and whether you need the money and if that's the only way that you can get the money. So we spoke, we actually spoke about this two weeks ago I think, Komesy, and at that point in time was about 160,000 that you were going to make from going sheasel to day costs. That's now 80,000. So it's certainly not as attractive as it was. I think that
00:18:02
Speaker
between Sizel and Daikos, you're probably going to get a similar level of scoring. Daikos possibly even more from now on in. So that's probably the only way I would look at it. If you're gonna go to any other defender, I probably wouldn't bother. I don't think, I still think that Sizel is going to, even if he's in the midfield, he's still gonna be close to 100 and he's still gonna be top six. That's my personal opinion. So I wouldn't be looking to trade him out.
00:18:30
Speaker
unless it was today cost. Now, for me though, I won't be, I'll be the trade, you know, well, until teams get named because I probably have another five out, but I'm looking at doing what Lemon is and trading out like a Cadman to a new rookie and then going Roberts up to Oliver or something like that, you know, like trying to get a rookie off field and get an upgrade to a discounted premium player in my opinion. So probably not for me,
00:19:00
Speaker
I'll throw you a, I'll throw you a situation. So say you like a lot of coaches that have a lot of defenders currently playing in their midfield and Nick Martin, Riley Bonner. Shesle down to Tom Green is going to make you close to 180K to then go up on the other end. Would you consider going a Shesle down to a Tom Green to get money up on the other end?
Rookie Selection and Job Security
00:19:21
Speaker
Yeah, I don't mind that.
00:19:24
Speaker
Yeah, but I mean, you know, different buys, different positions. Same buy. AWS in North Melbourne. North of 12 as well, okay. Yeah, okay, all right. So, yeah, look, maybe if that works for your team, geez, that's definitely better than what I was throwing at you.
00:19:46
Speaker
Cool. Well, that's a, that's a good segue into our next sort of hot topic in that stays fat and rookie. So at the moment, the list, we sort of got, you know, Harvey Thomas off the back of two sub games, Lazaro similar houses starting to get to the top of his price now with a lower score, uh, Dempsey starting to go backwards and Clark will Clark's Clark.
00:20:08
Speaker
Is it valuable now to trade one of those players down to a new rookie coming through, even if it only means that you can get a Roberts up to say someone in that eight, eight, eight to, you know, eight 50 range, or do we think you really need to be, you know, going at your example lemon of a Dempsey and a Roberts, unless you're able to get up to a bonafide premium. We've seen the risk of these parish Sinclair types that are cheap for a reason.
00:20:35
Speaker
You know, I look at my team, it's pretty hard. I might be able to get Thomas down to a new rookie if it's not the one I like to get up to a Tom Green, but even then you're taking a risk. What's the sort of go here, Lemon? Because coaches aren't really going to be able to go right to the top unless they've got some cash in the bank.
00:20:53
Speaker
Yeah, it's a really tricky one with these these rookies that stall around that, you know, three, 400K mark. It's not quite enough, particularly if you want to bring in a guy that's already played two or three games. So I think the big thing here is you've got to look probably one or two weeks ahead and just sort of see what position it puts you in next week. You know, if you
00:21:14
Speaker
If you can maybe reach for that upgrade this week, then next week you're going to have not much cash in the bank. You don't have a lot of options. You're then going to be sort of banking on maybe doing a double downgrade, or maybe you're looking at a mid-price swap around, maybe you're looking at a shiz or downgrade. You've got to sort of
00:21:33
Speaker
just plan it out and think, you know, if I don't trade this guy this week, am I keeping them through the buys? Am I hoping for a rookie to come back? Particularly with a guy like, you know, Howes is a great example. We don't get a lot of defender rookies come through a lot of the time. So he might be tricky to trade if you're waiting for a defender rookie. It's a really tough one. I think you also need to just look at your team value because
00:21:57
Speaker
you're gonna have to downgrade these guys at some point if you want to get a completed team probably. So you might just have to bite the bullet, do it when there's a rookie that presents and it'll set yourself up for three, four weeks time when you've got that cash to use. Yeah, I think the good teams and you're one of them, Lemon, who have
00:22:18
Speaker
not used at all. So they've been sort of chipping away at it. They've been getting rid of these rookies as they go. And it might mean that they don't necessarily get up to the top top players, but they've, you know, they've cashed out someone. Thomas a couple of weeks ago would have been perfect. Dempsey a couple of weeks ago.
00:22:34
Speaker
Lazaro these types where they're not necessarily getting up to the top premium at the time, but they're getting that cash ticking over and yes, they're taking a haircut and maybe some points at that point, but at some time soon, they're going to start to see the value and they're going to start to jump ahead, which is really important.
00:22:49
Speaker
And that kind of leads us into our next segment, Hami, in terms of the rookies. Trading in your rookies this week and over the next couple of weeks are actually super important because we need rookies with job security. There's no point jumping on someone that might have scored well this week if they're just going to be out of the team in a week, two weeks time, and they've only made 50, 60K because we really need them on field over the buyers, especially with these bullets that we've been copying, Hami. So what are you looking at in terms of rookies this week? You said you're looking at a traditional one up, one down.
00:23:18
Speaker
Where are you looking to target with your rookies and what are what are some of the things you're thinking about in and weighing up with these trades? Well, if you're trading in a rookie expecting them to be there in eight weeks time, I've got some bad news for you. I'm looking at let's have a look. Lucky Salah, Werner and Joe Richards from Collingwood.
00:23:42
Speaker
I think that with the pies lineup at the minute, and I know that they probably got games to give them a bit of a go as a first game, see how they went. But really, they played bloody well. Against the Eagles. Yeah, against the Eagles. Yeah. But still, don't matter. They're still out there doing it, hey. Got Bruce Revel. I think that he may have a few weeks. And after that, I'm concerned.
00:24:12
Speaker
Let's have a look at it. Dear, got subbed out. Voss, he's not getting a game when they've got their full compliment. Sin, possibly. But yeah, I don't know, mate. Hardeman, score poorly. Oceane Mullen, he actually was pretty good when he came on as that defensive role the other day. So it was a bit funny that, because it was like O'Connor went and got his knee checked. And then Oceane Mullen came in and was doing that middle tag.
00:24:41
Speaker
and it wasn't O'Connor, I was a bit surprised, but he did a pretty good job there. He seems like a pretty fit guy, so there's a possibility he'll end up being a good pick, but yeah, brain, like, anyway, yeah, it's a bit concerning. I think it's those two pies, guys, that I'm looking at at the minute. Yeah, see, I'm the opposite there, Hami. They both scored really well, or not really well, but well enough on the weekend, Clark especially, but,
00:25:09
Speaker
They haven't been in the side all year because they're not best 22. The pies are, you know, off the back of a flag. Yes, they've got injuries at the moment, but they're going to start to get their bodies back soon. And I just think that as soon as these players are available, it's going to be first in, first out, that they're on the hunt for a second flag. They're a seasoned team. I'd be, I'd be nervous. Right of reply on that one, Holmsey. Well, you think, look at Lucky Sullivan. He, uh,
00:25:36
Speaker
I said that, well, this is his first year in their system. He's just come in and trains, got his first game, but he's taken a few weeks to get up to speed. The guy's got a proven scoring history. He's 26 years old. I just think if they get him in as a 26-year-old and play him in a VFL, what a waste of time that has been for him.
00:25:58
Speaker
I just think that there's a chance that he gets a few weeks with a bit of uncertainty hanging over to go his head and Mitchell will probably still be out for a couple of weeks. So I think there's a chance that he could pop and he could grow 100,000 in value potentially for us.
00:26:17
Speaker
I think that's a great point, Harvey. The best thing to do with these rookies is just to wait until we get the injury updates on a Tuesday night and just have a look at, you know, what to go is listed out, what Mitchell's listed out, these other Collingwood guys that are coming back in and then try and sort of piece the puzzle together. You know, if to go, he comes back in two weeks, whose spot does he take? You know, is it going to be Lucky Sullivan?
00:26:39
Speaker
Um, is it going to be Joe Richards? Is it going to be someone else? Maybe these guys survive. Um, I think with these, with high scoring rookies, you know, if they play two weeks, they make a, you know, 80, a hundred K and then you have to trade them. It's not the end of the world. Um, it,
00:26:54
Speaker
You just have to sort of probably look ahead and just make sure you bank that trade in two or three weeks time, just in case they fail. If you've got a lot of other red dots on your bench or other stored rookies on your bench, though, there's only so many risks like this you can take because you can't trade them all at once. So just plan ahead and have a look at your bench. And, you know, that round 12, we get the extra trade.
00:27:16
Speaker
That's a great time to maybe do two rookies, sideways trades, or maybe even three rookie sideways trades to try and shore up for the buy rounds. Yep. The other one you didn't mention, Hami, is it Josh or Joel Freya from Bulldogs? Scored okay on the weekend. The only reason that I'm sort of considering him as well. I mean, Bevo hasn't been shy in playing his rookies this year. Gallagher's still in the side.
00:27:44
Speaker
There's been a few of the other younger guys that just keep getting games over these veterans and they had a good win on the weekend. So maybe he's one that we look back in three, four weeks time and he's had a good run of games and playing in that half back role scored well in the VFL. Maybe he's one to look at there, but like you mentioned, all of the rookies have risked this week and
00:28:04
Speaker
Yeah, it's going to come down to a bit of luck, but also just making sure you know the right one, Tommy. Well, Holmes, you said that they haven't been shy in playing their rookies, yet you've got a rookie that's just racked up 42 touches in the VFL the week before. He got 38, didn't he? So why isn't he getting a game in Riley Sanders? Anyway, I have a touch.
00:28:28
Speaker
concern how trading in any Bulldogs player at the moment, just the way that they seem to be a bit all over the place. Man, there's a lot of bias in the fantasy community about Riley Sanders. He's clearly not doing something that the coaching staff likes, and we see plenty of AFL players go back to VFL level and rack up. Admittedly, he's an 18-year-old kid, so he's an exceptional talent, but I think we need to let Riley Sanders go for a little bit.
00:28:56
Speaker
Moving on, Lemon, let's have a little bit of a chat now about your sort of buy-around balance. So what strategies are you looking at over the next couple of weeks to make sure that your team is nice and balanced moving into the buy so that you can really attack in rank and start to climb?
00:29:12
Speaker
Yeah, so definitely if you if you haven't already, just just have a quick look through your team, count up the premiums on each week. And just just find out how many guys you've got missing across each week in the buy rounds. I think I'd like to sort of max out at probably five, maybe six premiums in a particular week, I think you can have, you could have six if you need to, but I wouldn't want any more than that. And then also look at
00:29:35
Speaker
Each by around you know who are the rookies or mid-prices that maybe might still be there as well particularly those first couple around you know the ones in round fourteen round fifteen a perfect trade-out candidates that they're by but particularly like around twelve rookies round twelve mid-prices. There's not that many trades left until we hit round twelve so if you don't try them out around twelve you probably gonna have to hold them through the by rounds and then are you gonna be comfortable.
00:30:02
Speaker
fielding that guy when you've got a few players out and you need a score from them. So yeah, for me, I don't really like to hold rookies past round 12 by rookies because they get the first by and then there's no guarantee they're going to be playing in the next three weeks. So if you can't avoid them, I'd like to get them all out of the team by then, unless there's an absolute standout rookie that pops up between now and then.
00:30:27
Speaker
And the other guys, you know, you can, as soon as they, as long as they play around 12, then you can get rid of them around 13, around 14, around 15 in whatever priority you need.
Buy-Round Strategies
00:30:38
Speaker
So that's probably the big one. The other thing is obviously we've got the Freo and Port guys on the round 13 by. Most teams won't have many guys from there. So
00:30:47
Speaker
maybe look at how many guys you've got in that buy around. Can you bring in a sarong or a butters? You know, some of these guys, maybe even your holder sharp through the buy arounds because it just helps you with your buy strategies. So that's probably my take on it. I'm interested to hear your thoughts, Hami and Holmzy on how you guys are attacking the buy arounds though. Nice spot on mate. That is how you would do it.
00:31:15
Speaker
It's really those premium players that you need to try and have balance. The rest, those mid prices and the rookies, you can fluctuate a bit throughout that period. And you obviously want to have more 15, 14 round buyer players coming in. So you can trade them out and trade in the people coming off their buy in those rounds, 12 and 13 teams.
00:31:40
Speaker
Just in mentioning that, maybe I'll keep my ruck line of Luke Jackson and Jordan's suite a bit longer if that's going to be a favorable round 13 by line up anyway.
00:31:53
Speaker
Yeah, look, I agree with everything Lemon said. The one extra point I wanted to sort of make is not only counting how many premiums you have on each buy, but actually making note of where the players are on the line. So at the moment, I suppose the round 12 buy and the forward line is a little bit of an issue. A lot of coaches have an Isaac Heaney, Tom Powell. They're the only real premiums. Some still might have a Zach Fisher.
00:32:19
Speaker
But then all of the rookies as well that you'd be hoping to come on, you know, Lazaro, Harvey Thomas, Jones from GWS, a lot of them have the same buy, which means that you're not actually replacing them on field, meaning that maybe you get stuck and you can't actually get more than 20 players on field because of where your premiums and rookies are in other lines. So you can only get
00:32:40
Speaker
eight in the midfield and six in defence. And if you have seven, it doesn't mean you can get them on. So just be really, really sure about where the players are on your field and in your team. But absolutely the point Lemon made about making sure that the rookies go on the Round 12 buys is awesome because, yeah, a lot of the time what we see is some rookies might come in before the buy, some senior players go out and then as soon as the buy happens and they freshen up, the senior players come back in and you're stuck with another red dot that can't exactly help you through the buy. Lemon.
00:33:11
Speaker
Yeah, I love that mate. I think that when you're looking at trading in the next couple of weeks, then you really just identify which rookies have maxed out and then maybe look at trading the round 12 by player before you trade the round 13, 14. So in my example, if I was only gonna trade one of Roberts and Dempsey, I think Roberts has to go this week because if Dempsey puts out a half decent score or maybe you get some carnage elsewhere, you can hold him through round 12 and then trade him round 13, round 14. You know, he might lose a bit of cash, but at least he puts up a score
00:33:41
Speaker
in round 12 and he puts up a score in your forward line, which might be super, super handy in round 12. So yeah, that's a great point. You know, there's like Dane Zorko, I don't think you mentioned as well. A lot of people looking at bringing him in, we might be only playing two or three forwards in round 12. So it's pretty scary. Yeah, far out Zorko. We might get to him, but his run before and after his buys
00:34:06
Speaker
is very, very juicy. And if we don't get him now, we might be paying over a million bucks, which will be a little bit scary. You already are. Well, there you go. We will be paying a million with that 180 in his price cycle for the next three weeks. All right, lads, let's get into some questions. Big, big episode of questions. So I'm going to start with you, Lemon, first. This one's from Mitch Casey, a long time fan of the show, Ball Boys. Go check them out.
00:34:32
Speaker
There are a few options being cheap at the moment, mainly Rosie and Green. Both still with big break-evens. Now, Rosie's not confirmed to come back yet, but hypothetically, let's say he's back this week against Hawthorne. How important is the value this time of year? Can we accelerate getting in best 22 players if it means they're still going to drop maybe 50, 60K? Or do you think it's still a play to get on them early to get ahead despite the cash loss? What do you think?
00:34:59
Speaker
I think this really depends on how your team values tracking. If you're cashed up and you're pretty comfortable, you've got the next two or three weeks of upgrades ready to go, I think you can jump early on these guys. But Rosie first came back from injury. We're not exactly sure if he's gonna be 100% fully fit. He's a great example of one that I'd be more than happy just to wait a week or two on. And if he performs well this week, next week, you can bring him in. He's got the great buy. You can bring him in round 12.
00:35:29
Speaker
green is probably another one I'd be if I don't have Tom green I'm waiting till round 13 and I'm bringing him in after his buy because he's gonna be a lot cheaper than he is now and yeah you might miss one or two good scores but you might be able to find them elsewhere as well so
00:35:44
Speaker
I think you can keep hunting value as much as you can. If you get a complete team and you've got another 500k sitting on your bench, guess what? You can use that for another upgrade. You could maybe bring in a 23rd Primo. You can do a lot of things. You're still going to need cash in the back half of the year. Just keep hunting value where you can, unless you're super, super cashed up.
00:36:08
Speaker
I'll play devil's advocate on Tom Green. Rosie, I think you wait regardless. Yes, he has a good matchup against Hawthorne, but you don't know how he's going to come back off that hammy, maybe rest a little bit forward. So wait there. But Tom Green break even of 133, definitely achievable by his standards. And then he has Geelong before his buy as well, who we've seen give up massive points to
00:36:30
Speaker
to midfielders. So he's one I'd actually, I'm considering I'd love to get up to Tom Green this week if I can, knowing that yeah, maybe he does lose 10 to 30K, but if you can get a good score and then a good score before the buy, yes, he's still going to be cheap after the buy, but points still matter on field as well. So that's my devil's advocate with Tom Green. I think he's a good option this week, as long as he's come good off that ankle.
00:36:54
Speaker
Hami, this one's for you from Sam. So he's traded in green and perished in the last two weeks chasing value and it hasn't worked. Should he go straight to the top to a merit this week or should he still be chasing the value? What do you think? I'd still be chasing the value every time. That's my personal opinion. I think that there are players out there that have got potential upside and there's no point blowing every dollar that you have right now on the highest priced players because
00:37:23
Speaker
there's potential that they come down as well. So as you saw with Tom Green, it doesn't take much of them to hit a bad score or get an injury, and then you're losing a significant proportion of money. So God still be chasing value, but it's to
Value Chasing vs. Top Players
00:37:37
Speaker
their own. There are others that may like to chase top dollar.
00:37:41
Speaker
Yeah, I think those two players are a little bit different as well. Tom Green, you were chasing as an underpriced top eight mid and Parrish, Parrish was a punt. He scored well the week before, but we hadn't seen consistent scoring. It was a punt that he was going to go back to what he was doing last year. And he still might. He had a bad score on the weekend, but he has a good run coming up. So just because you've only had him for one week doesn't necessarily mean it's been a failed trade just yet.
00:38:05
Speaker
So yeah, I think hunting the value is still important this time of year, but just making sure you're actually hunting a fair bit of value and not just a few points here and there. Lemon, this one's for you. How important do you think it is now to target fixture above all else? So we've got some consistent data, you know, four to five teams that are giving up a lot of fantasy points. He's used an example of Zorko. So Zorko, although he's overpriced, we spoke about that run, has a dream run coming up.
00:38:34
Speaker
Can you go all the way to the top for Zorko knowing what runny has coming up or do you still think it's a bit risky to pay up all that money?
00:38:42
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's a great question. I think, you know, we, what are we coming into round 10? We've still got 14 rounds, 15 rounds to go. And I'm not really willing to be banking a trade five weeks from now to remove that guy from your team. So if you're bringing a guy like Zorko now, you're going to be holding him probably 10 weeks, ideally, maybe through to the end of the season. So
00:39:07
Speaker
assuming his body holds up. So I think fixtures are a great differentiator if you're picking between two players or three players, you pick the guy with the easier fixture in the short term, and then maybe you can get the guy with a harder fixture in two or three weeks. But yeah, at this point, all the premiums I'm bringing in, I'm expecting to hold for at least 10 weeks, ideally the whole season. Every week with Zorko, I am amazed.
00:39:37
Speaker
I'm amazed at the score he puts up and I'm amazed that he didn't get injured. Every year he gets injured. I think the scary thing for Zorko owners is that big 180 came, I think it was 93% game time or something. They had no one on the bench, so these veterans just stayed out there.
00:40:00
Speaker
When you're younger, you can do that, but these older bodies, I wouldn't be surprised if they're looking at getting a rest into him or maybe it's too late and he does something now because that fatigue just builds up over time. So yeah, it's a great score and you've banked it now, but geez, I'd be worried about Zorko. I don't know if I could ever own him. I'm so worried about his body.
00:40:25
Speaker
A bit off topic, did you boys see the Roy try to get Calvin on Twitter yesterday posting the article of Zorko missing against Richmond from three years ago? I did see that. That was a leap. That sucked me in for about a minute until I read the article. Lemon, I'll stay with you for this
Positioning Rookies for Upgrades
00:40:45
Speaker
one. This one's from Chloe and I actually really like this question. So she's wondering whether or not it's worth
00:40:51
Speaker
keeping slash loading up on rookies in the forward line, knowing that she can't get up to Zorka and she doesn't really like any of the other premiums that she can get up to. If it means that, you know, you're able to bring in another midfielder, but it's maybe getting some of the, you know, Jeremy Sharps, closeies, some of the better scoring rookies off the field. What are you thinking with a strategy question like this?
00:41:12
Speaker
Yeah, it's a great question. And I think a lot of coaches are in a similar position. It's for me, I don't I don't look at what the score the rookie scoring on field, I look at what I can upgrade them to so sharp and closely going at, you know, 80, but you can bring in a midfielder that's going to go to 110. That's a 30 point upgrade.
00:41:30
Speaker
Um, same in your forward line. If you've got Harley Reid going at 50, 60, can you bring in a guy that's going to be going 80, 90 that you'd like and you think he can do that for the whole season? So I completely agree. If you're, if you're skipping Zorko and there's no other guy that you think can average, you know, 85, 90 that you're wanting your team, then maybe you're better off just upgrading a midfield spot, um, and dealing with the forwards later, you know, kick it down the curb.
00:41:54
Speaker
Um, I, yeah, I think that's a valid strategy, but also you still need to be moving these, having a plan to move these rookies on, you know, Harley Reed, they've shown in the past that they like giving him a rest. Um, Dempsey slowed down a bit. Um, Darcy Wilson's going crazy, but again, he might be managed sometime. So I'd probably want to have one or two guys on the bench that are, you know, at least going to be out of cover for arrest. And maybe you can loop through as well. Don't just rely on these rookies to play the next five, 10 games.
00:42:25
Speaker
Yeah, that's a great point and Harley Reid scoring starting to slow. So maybe it is a good differentiator to get off someone like him and jump ahead of most of the comp that are still just content with playing him at F6. I wouldn't be touching Darcy Wilson at the moment. He's playing some very, very good football with a fantastic role.
00:42:44
Speaker
Hami, can I tempt you with Alex Sexton as an option throughout the buys? Just over 500K, I don't have the number off the top of my head, but- I do, 500K. Is he exactly 500K? 500K, because I looked it up, because I thought maybe he is an option, but nah, I don't think so, mate. He's only just come back in for the week, hasn't he? So I think these job securities potentially still questionable, but will power out for a while. Yeah, 500K.
00:43:15
Speaker
Maybe here's the answer, but I think I've just taken the bait too many times on players like that this season and they haven't really paid off for me. He does play Geelong this week, who leaked points, and then he's got St Kilda before his buy as well. So, oh geez, if you could tell me that he was playing the next four weeks guaranteed, I think I'd be happy to do that. Well, hold on. Let's have a look. Let's have a look.
00:43:42
Speaker
The Suns here, so who's playing in defense for Suns? Sexton, 88, Ulland, 83. Then he has a bit of a gap. I don't know where Lakosius or Long played this week, both scored 60. Yeah, man, there's no Connor Buderik, no Will Powell. Yeah, maybe he is a play, geez.
00:44:10
Speaker
Stay tuned. Stay tuned for Harmony's Dossy Pick next week, Alex Sexton. I poofy into it.
00:44:18
Speaker
I'd be, I'd be nervous. Gold Coast all year have shown that they're not afraid to swing the magnets around when things aren't going right and training him in this time of year, you really want him playing throughout the buy. So that's my, my thoughts. Uh, they had a pretty soft matchup against kangaroos on the weekend. They do have some good match ups coming up, but I'd be, I'd be nervous. Um, personally myself, Lemon, can I interest you in an Ed Richards? Oh, I actually had a look at him today. I think.
00:44:47
Speaker
It looks like he might be taking that liberatory role. But as Hami said earlier, you've got Sanders racking up in the VFL. I can't see him being there forever. So I think they maybe give him one or two more weeks. Maybe he comes back in this week. And he'll get big midfield time. I don't particularly love it. That was a pretty soft matchup for them. And they all scored well. So I think that was one out of the bag. You've missed his ceiling score.
00:45:16
Speaker
There might be a little bit of value there, but how do you know with Western Bulldogs? This is this midfield, it happens every year. It's a circus, you know, we've no one has any idea what they're going to do. And I think he's a good halfback. So I think you'll go back there at some point. I just think for an extra twenty thousand dollars, I much prefer Clayton Oliver as an option because he's done it so many years before. He's a high CBA mid and there's a chance that Richards isn't for the next 15 weeks.
00:45:47
Speaker
Well, we haven't we haven't touched on him on him. So you're keen on a Clayton Oliver target this week. I know a lot of coaches are going to be able to say trade a dead rookie down to a new one and easily get a Roberts up to a Clayton Oliver. Do you think that's a smart move this weekend for going some of the guys right at the top? Do you think he's primed? He does have a good matchup against the Eagles. From what you've seen of Clayton Oliver, is he is he primed? Can he go over 100, 105 from here? Look, yes, I think he can go 100.
00:46:18
Speaker
But he's priced at $725,000, so he's priced well below that. So I think that it's a good pick this week. It was a good pick last week. So I think for those that have just been watching him, I think that he's now done enough for us to bring him in. Lemon, do you have any opposing thoughts on Clayton Oliver? Is he someone you're looking at? Yeah, definitely. I think we've all seen that Clayton Oliver has been struggling for fitness.
00:46:48
Speaker
at the start of the season. And it looks like maybe he's turned a bit of a corner there and he's got his body right. So yeah, the juicy matchup against West Coast just gives you a bit of safety there. I mean, he plays St Kilda the next week as well, which doesn't hurt. So I think it's a great time to do it because you pick him and if it fails, you can trade him at his buy.
00:47:09
Speaker
It probably won't be too bad, but if it works, you know, there's probably 20 points, maybe 25 points of value there, which is just beautiful this time of year. So yeah, I like it. Has a good buy around too. I don't think that round 14 buy, there's not a lot of good midfielders. Sorry if you mentioned that already, Lemon, but yeah, Clayton Oliver.
00:47:28
Speaker
Just temporary expectations with no pre-season. We don't think he's going to be back to those 110 to 115 ways that we've been so accustomed to. But from his price, if he can go somewhere between 100 and 105 and get you through to the back end of the year, I think he's going to be a pretty good pick. Hami, this coach, Nick has English and Gorn and he has sweeter R3. So he probably had to do some maneuvering there last week or maybe had him at R3.
00:47:54
Speaker
Would you keep riding sweet until Soto comes back or if he provides the cash to get one of these rookies off field this week, would you consider going early? What's more valuable, getting the rookie off or potentially getting another 100K out of sweet until Soto comes back? Right. So I reckon that sweet will be back playing this week and I reckon he'll be playing the next
00:48:16
Speaker
few weeks it is going to make a lot of money. I wouldn't be trading him out at this point. I think that everyone should probably have an alternative rookie that they can trade out to cash up and you may not get exactly the top-line player that you're after but I think there's a better play because
00:48:35
Speaker
I think that Jordan Sweet is potentially going to make $100,000 more and that's pretty well guaranteed rather than some of the riskier bookies that we spoke to earlier in the pod.
00:48:49
Speaker
Yeah, exactly right. And you know, things happen in this game. If you hold sweet and then maybe there's a little bit of a mishap with Soldo's return, maybe sweet does play well and Soldo comes back through the twos. You might get an extra week or two out of him and you'll be kicking yourself if you trade an amount at 500K. So I think you just keep riding sweet at R3. It's a lot of cash on the bench, but I think he still has a lot of cash to make.
00:49:12
Speaker
Last question for you, Lemon, before we wrap up. So this kind of ties into us talking about whether it's important to get rid of the dead rookies or keep sort of upgrading. Lockie is thinking about avoiding getting rid of some dead rookies and going Roberts to Clary.
00:49:28
Speaker
and then Grundy to Marshall. So foregoing making those downgrades to a rookie and sort of definite upgrade on Roberts to Clary, but going sort of sideways Grundy to Marshall, although Marshall is a bit of an upgrade. Is that something you should be looking to doing or do you think it's more important at this time of the year to get that cash going on the bench? Yeah, I actually don't hate that. I think that's a pretty good move and maybe there's a little bit of cash in the bank there as well, which helps. Yeah, I think you're getting a clear upgrade
00:49:56
Speaker
for Grundy, you're getting a clear upgrade for Roberts. You know, it just means maybe you're going to lose 20-30k on the rookie that you otherwise would have traded. But, you know, I think you're clearly going to make that up with Marshall shooting up at the moment. So I'd be happy to do those trades without seeing the team. But yeah, again, I think this time of year is a great time. Just
00:50:19
Speaker
Just think, at least have a look at next week and what you're going to do and where the cash is coming from. If we don't get any nice rookies named this week, then maybe you jump a bit earlier on a rookie this week rather than waiting and hoping something pops up next week. But yeah, I think that's a pretty fair move.
00:50:37
Speaker
Yeah. Yep. Agree there. Lemon, you're clearly going to need a bit of cash to do that, but absolutely. I think that is a play and who knows maybe Harvey Thomas, Lazaro, Clark, whoever these dead rookies are, maybe they get dropped and we're not going to lose cash on them this week, but I think just wait for teams to make sure before you make that decision.
Encouragement and Strategic Planning
00:50:57
Speaker
All right, lads, we're going to wrap up there. Apologies if we didn't get to your questions, listeners, but we tried to get to the ones we hadn't sort of discussed in the general pod. So hopefully we've answered a lot of your questions there. Lemon, thanks for jumping on, mate. Why don't you just give us one final closing thought for the round and moving into the bias. Yeah, thanks for having me, guys. I think closing thought just, yeah, just
00:51:24
Speaker
Don't give up hope. Don't start throwing Hail Marys. There's a long way to go. And we find every year the buy-arounds really help the teams that have set up well and maybe the teams that have neglected the bench a bit. So, you know, reassess after the buy-arounds, just try to hit them hard. And yeah, hopefully me and a few other teams can jump back up the ranks. So we'll see. Beautiful. And Hami, thanks for jumping on, mate. I know it's been tough.
00:51:52
Speaker
I'm starting to feel like everyone in my life is abandoning me, so it's nice to see we've still got a Pod Pod member willing to jump on. So I appreciate you, mate. Hopefully it turns around for you soon. Just keep chipping away. Maybe you should have traded in Nick Martin when we told you to six weeks ago. You know, stop being so stubborn. But yeah, thanks. Thanks for jumping on, mate. No, it's just a parting thought, Holmesy. I'm just expecting Elliot Yoda came out this week and crack about 120 points to reward me for holding him. So I didn't have a choice.
00:52:23
Speaker
Yeah, right. It'll be good for my draft team, but yeah, fair enough, homie. Hopefully he comes back. He'll be unique for you. All right. Thanks, guys. Make sure you follow us at Pod Pod AFL on X and then make sure you leave a rating and review on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Not sure when we'll be back next week. We'll keep you guys informed, but for now, good luck this week and hopefully you trade well and score well. Cheers. Thanks, guys.