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Player Positions Preview - RUCKS feat JD #PODPOD
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Continuing with our player position preview series, this week we are talking about the real big dogs, the RUCKS! With what seems like excess cash to spend this year, coaches are finding that they are able to spend up big in the ruck line if they wish. Do coaches “set and forget?” Do coaches spend up on one expensive ruck and then try to find value? Or do coaches go full value mode with some cheaper options? All this strategy and more is covered in this episode!
In this episode, Two-time top 10 finisher Harmey and friend of the podcast Jackson Davey or JD as he is better known in the fantasy community talk all things rucks! Whether you are interested in an expensive ruckman like Xerri or Marshall, or are considering value options such as TDK and Darcy, this podcast has you covered! Join the lads for a strategy round table discussion and then the pros and cons of all the relevant ruckmen. Enjoy!
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Follow us on X:
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Dos: @HKdos
JD: @jacksondavey
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Transcript
Introduction to AFL Fantasy Classic Podcast
00:00:18
Holmesy
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod at Somesy here talking all things AFL fantasy classic for you on this Monday the 13th of January.
Player Preview Focus: Ruckmen
00:00:27
Holmesy
Continuing with our player preview positions this week, we touched on the midfielders last week and today we're going to the to the big dogs, the Rockman. We saw the return of the Rockman last year with some monstrous fantasy seasons.
Meet the Hosts and Special Guest JD
00:00:41
Holmesy
As always, I've got my co-host with me, two-time top 10 finisher and runner up in, what was it, Hami 2018, 2017.
00:00:47
Holmesy
It's been a while since we're up there. Can you remember back that far?
00:00:48
Jon Harmey
Oh yeah 2019 I finished second.
00:00:53
Jon Harmey
Yeah, that would be my latest one. I reckon
00:00:57
Holmesy
2019, long, long time ago. But as we said last week on the the goals here, you got the hat in mind ah for this season. So that'll be good to see when that comes through. And we've got another special guest with us
JD on Stepping Away from Content Creation
00:01:09
Holmesy
this week. You heard him on with us last year during the home's files. He's taken a step away from the content creation this year so far, but a very, very good super coach and fantasy mind. I've got JD from Fantasy Take TV, but a bit of a loan shark at the moment. JD,
00:01:27
Holmesy
How are you, mate?
00:01:27
JD
Yes. Yeah. Formally of the Fantasy Tank TV variety. Shout out to those boys, but no longer part of the crew. um Yeah. Thanks for having me on. This is my 2025 debut. It could be my finale as well. You know, after this and people saying, how are us? Yeah. And they may not want to talk to me again. So this is pretty make or break
Balancing Content Creation and Personal Time
00:01:44
JD
for me. There's a lot on the line.
00:01:46
Holmesy
Nah, you're very, very good at ah what you do, JD. And like I mentioned, you have stepped away from the content creation stuff. Is that a permanent thing at the moment or could there be some stuff in the wings for 2025?
00:01:59
JD
Yeah, we'll see. I mean, I definitely have missed it a little bit in the preseason now. like I've had a few few days in the you can have kind of slow ramp up of work where I'm like, oh, I could be you know putting together a run check now or doing some podcasting. So it's actually fortunate you you reached out when you did. Scratch and itch, for sure. We'll see how I go. I'm keen to have, I guess, a little bit more of my weekends back and not feel like I have to watch all nine games, you know be able to get the home life a little bit better balance of maybe what it was last year. And we'll see how we go.
00:02:28
JD
really enjoy that and I might try and stay retired and and if not, they I might come back if I can find some new balance. But um yeah, I'm looking actually just really looking forward to just playing a year as a content consumer rather than a creator this year.
00:02:43
Holmesy
Yeah, good. fly ah Fly under the radar a little bit. so Kind of do miss those times a little bit, but it is good to to still be able to do these
AFL Fantasy Strategies: Value Selection vs. Mid-Pricers
00:02:51
Holmesy
podcasts. Look, we're going to get into the ruckman today, but before we do that, I thought we'd kick off with just a little bit of strategy conversations, JD, because I am fascinated with how you play the game. It's been a little bit different to sort of conventional, the way sort of Hami and I played it back in the day. I i remember talking to you on the home spires last time and you said when you came across the AFL fantasy, basically what you were trying to do was create a and not so good super coach side with all the value selections. and And that's how you kind of stumbled upon this blueprint of how you play the game, knowing that we've got unlimited, well, not unlimited, but two trades a week in AFL fantasy compared to to Super Coach, the question I have for you though is, after going back to back hats in what, 2022 and 2023, and then last year not quite having the season that, ah you know, for your for your lofty high standards, do you think that the best 18 early buy rounds played into that in terms of your value strategy and trying to limit rookies on the
Impact of Early Buy Rounds on Strategy
00:03:51
Holmesy
field? Or do you think you might have just had a bit of an off season?
00:03:55
JD
Yeah, it's really interesting right because I won Round Zero, Volta last year as well. And then the actual season itself, I not like it wasn't a complete ride off, but it yeah, it wasn't another hat. So yeah, first time in I guess my first three years playing, I wasn't able to. And so I definitely think Round Zero didn't help. I felt like I had a pretty good read on it coming into the preseason that who was going to be good and bad and maybe had a leg up on some of the other competition that weren't seeing it the same way.
00:04:25
JD
Like, and so, you know, things like I took Gorn out for Grundy, which, you know, the winner did as well. So like, I can't like chalk it up just to things like that. But, you know, you also saw people, you know, take out picks like Gulden, which I have had picked as not being a very good pick and, you know, rounds here. So I just felt like that, that really hurt. You know, my my overall game just, I feel like a lot of advantages built in the preseason and building that that round one side. And then as soon as round zero kind of reveals the game plans for for half the teams, you get a really good read on this straight away. I think it does help a lot of others that may not have, it it it takes away an edge. So I think that's part of it.
Debate: Guns & Rookies vs. Mid-Price Approach
00:05:08
JD
And then I guess like the the the other party question was like effectively did the change in structure, just having the early buy rounds kind of heard what you were doing. And that's one I'm i'm still figuring out myself and trying to reflect on. um You know, listening to some of the winners, they,
00:05:23
JD
saw it as actually a green light to go. It sounds like even harder on some of these mid prices because if they end up being duds, they were going to be dropped off. Where I think if you just look at like the raw numbers, it probably suggests that you can go a little bit more back to the but guns and rookies type, just because the disadvantage of guns and rookies is that the 22nd player you had on field is going to score less than the other mid-pricer team's 22nd player. And as soon as you've got best 18, you're actually dropping off those like where your disadvantage was. So it's, you know, was that a, was that a one year thing where it just happened to be the players and the circumstances at mid prices worked or is that going to be the new blueprint going forward? I think also we had a, the, the buy structure was different last year, right? Then it is this year as well. So that's the other thing you've got to factor in as well. It was more strung out over more weeks and this time it's kind of too shorter up and then you're done. So yeah, I think I've still got a fair bit to think through in terms of what does that actually mean for strategy and
00:06:23
JD
where it's going to be really interesting for me as well is like, if you look at the defender value players, they've all got that same by, um, what is it? The swans, cats, lions, and whoever it is. I know this is a product car. Sorry. I'll try and find a segue back at some point. Um, but you you know, like when say I've got like my favorite four players to start are all in that by in defense, how many of those can you actually end up running? Is it one, two, three, four?
00:06:50
JD
um How do you actually look at that? So I think those are going to be really interesting questions to kind of pick off through the preseason. But maybe part of the reason why I stepped back from content creation is ultimately I feel it will come down to so what actually happens in round zero. And that is like really frustrating. yeah Part of the fun of content creation was spending the time doing the research and having those predictions coming in. And you know when you see the results, it's too late, everyone everyone's teams are locked in, but everyone kind of gets mulliganed coming in with round zero. So anyway, sorry, that's ah a long digression on a few different things, but I think maybe to come back to your your original question, I'm not sure how much the new new structure um like played into having a down year versus just you know made some mistakes with the starting side and kind of didn't recover quick enough.
Comparing Buy Rounds 2024 vs. 2025
00:07:35
Holmesy
Yeah, I think one of the points you made is is really fascinating in terms of last year, we had the four rounds of best 18, but it was strung over the first six weeks, wasn't it? So we had the round one as normal, and then we had round two and three as the buy rounds, and then we had gather round in round four, and then we had another two best 18 rounds in round five and round six. Whereas this year, the buy rounds are all condensed, so they're over three weeks, and it's back to normal buy by round four. So I think think it's going to lean more towards back to that sort of mid price structure that you've kind of developed over the last few years because it's going to be back to best 22 relatively quickly. But it is going to be an interesting test case. Look, it was fascinating to listen to Chris and Tom and how they
Effectiveness of Mid-Price Strategy
00:08:21
Holmesy
played it. And they, yeah, they went mid price heavy, but they weren't afraid to sort of spend up on a few guns that were looking at ceiling scores early to kind of separate them from the pack as well. so
00:08:32
Holmesy
I mean, value players can put up the ceiling scores as well as long as you pick the right ones. But yeah, Hami, what are you thinking? Have you thought too much about the early buy-arounds and and that what me and JD were just sort of discussing?
00:08:45
Jon Harmey
I agree with a lot of what was said. I'm starting to get a bit off ah that buy, like players that are on that buy round where it's got the yeah four teams on the buy. So I'm starting to become even more reluctant to look at having those players in my team, but time will tell.
00:09:07
Holmesy
Yeah, it's, it's, I don't know whether it's the sicko in me or not. And, and Selby says it as well, but I kind of hope all those value players in round zero have kind of mediocre rounds so that it's going to force the good coaches to actually sort of take a punt rather than just locking in at Isaac Heaney, because he's gone bang in round zero or locking in a, a locky Whitfield or, or these types of players or Grundy, for example, even though he was a bit underwhelming, but Hami.
00:09:31
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I think I said last week that I was keen on taking out those Round Zero playing players, and if they score really well, put bringing them, introducing them into my team. So what I did during the week, and um it might change again, but I took out um Kitty Carlin and Calla Mills, Maddy Roberts types, and replaced them with other players.
00:09:53
Holmesy
Yep.
Ruck Selection Strategies Explained
00:09:54
Holmesy
Yep. Beautiful. All right. So getting into the ruckman now, we're going to bring some players to the table um to discuss, but before we do that, I thought we'd just have a bit of a general strategy discussion because at least to me, it seems like there's three ways that coaches are going this year and it's, it's consistent all years, but we've got coaches that are that are going the traditional set and forget. So for those of you that aren't aware, set and forget is when you you pick the two ruckmen that you believe are going to be the two top scorers for the year. So in years gone by, it's been Max Gorn and Brody Grundy. um ah Two years ago, I think it was Tim English and Royal Marshall and those were the two clear best and you just put those two players in your team, lock them away knowing that hopefully you don't have to trade them and you've got the two best scores for the year. So
00:10:37
Holmesy
With the forward line being the way that it is this year, it seems like coaches have excess cash and they're they're not wanting the headache of these value rucks. They're just going straight to the top because they believe that a Tristan Cherry or a and a Rowan Marshall are going to be the two best scorers. So we've got the set and forget.
00:10:53
Holmesy
We've then got the coaches that are deciding to pay up for one of these ruckmen and then maybe looking at another value option. And then there's the sickos, like I believe JD might be, that are looking at two value rucks and foregoing a Tristan Cherry and Roland Marshall completely, JD. So let's have a little bit of a strategy discussion. Pick a pick a structure. What are you sort of looking at?
00:11:14
JD
Jeez, categorizing is a sicko straight off the top. um Yeah, ah look, ah you've you've caught me red handed. I do have two value players in there at the moment. um And I think it's just because I see a lot of regression, you know, potentially happening at the top end. And Like the Set and Forget has worked and worked for a number of years because we did have two clear top guys and they held for the year. But if you went Set and Forget last year and started in English, you were in an absolute world of hurt, right? So I think um what's interesting with the Ruck line, I was thinking about it is like why it feels so important is because it it's just too
00:11:54
JD
two spots, you know, across the midfield, you've got eight that kind of carry the load. And so you never really chalk up like, oh, my midfield was good or bad because I did or didn't have one player. But with the ruck, it very much feels like if you didn't start cherry last year, if you didn't have gone, your ruck line failed compared to the others, which is kind of interesting to think about, like how much do we overweight individual picks. But I think, yeah, part of the reason that set and forget has worked so well is just because we have had two that have then continued to be the best. And that trend has really broken the last few years.
00:12:23
JD
So I guess for me, I'm looking at this going, um you know, are Cherry and Marshall gonna stay as R1 and R2 and continue to average about what they did? If they did, amazing. I think you should just pick them with the excess cash that we've got and just lock them in. If they're not, or there's enough value in some of these other guys, then I'm gonna take a punt on those and hope that, um you know, the the points that I give up can be made up elsewhere by redistributing the cash.
00:12:49
JD
um it's It's going to be a fun year. I think rucks are going to be very, very impactful, maybe the most that it's ever been. So yeah, I'm like very, very curious as to how it plays out. But how how are you two structuring up? What are you looking at? I know, Holmes, I think listening to some of your work with maybe it's Mitch early on, um he pegged you as a set and forget guy that's maybe moved away from that. um But yeah, but what what are you looking at?
00:13:17
Holmesy
Yeah, look at, at the moment, um, I'm looking at, uh, one of the big dogs and then a value rock. Um, I'd love to go the value rocks if I can make it work like you, JD. I'm just a a little bit worried. I've forever been a Sean Darcy man, but the, we're going to get into it a little bit later, but the fact that he's still not training at the moment coming back from off season surgery has me a little bit worried, but if he comes out and he plays practice games and and the proper preseason games in the lead up to round one, the sicko in me is going to find that hard to pass up. But you nailed it on the head. Last year with Tim English, he was the clear, what we thought the clear R1
00:13:55
Holmesy
um and he regressed 15 points from 119 back down to 104. Now we've discussed a potential rule change that might have affected him but we've seen players have outlier years and then regress back to the mean and and Tim English came back to what he what he scored the the year before around that sort of low 100 mark. So just because ah a Tristan Cherry and a Rowan Marshall did what they did last year doesn't necessarily mean that they're able to repeat it. Now admittedly Rowan Marshall has done it back to back years so there's ah clear data there. And there was a lot of question marks last year about whether or not Tom Campbell would come in. He's now gone. We're we're going to get to all this, but, you know, nothing's to say that Tristan Cherry will be able to back up what he did last year. He's a very good player, um but that nothing's ever given in fantasy. And ah a 115 price tag is a very hefty price tag to pay um for a player to come back to the pack a little bit harmy. How are you seeing the rocks?
00:14:49
Jon Harmey
This is quite cool, actually, because I'm just to round out the trifecta of options, paying up for two rucks at the minute. so um But i'm not I'm not fixed on that, so I'll be interested to see how our discussion goes. I guess when I started looking through a few of the rucks that we'll talk through today,
00:15:08
Jon Harmey
I so sort of looked at and thought, well, are the cheap guys undervalued enough to warrant starting them? And I'll give you an example of what I mean. Holmes, you just said there, Tristan Cherry, career year. A number of the guys that we're going to talk about have had careers last year.
00:15:25
Jon Harmey
So he's priced at 115. Let's say he goes at 115, zero dollars made, all all okay. But you compare that against somebody like Tom DeConing priced at 88. Don't know what he could go. Let's say he goes 100 and he's made 12 points. He's gone up 12 points on his average. Is that worth the risk of starting with him compared to Cherry?
00:15:48
Holmesy
yeah Yeah, you're dead right. And the other thing that gets missed with paying up for these ruckmen as well, we we always say that we look for value and and Jayden's done his worthwhile averages, but someone priced at 115 plus. All they have to do to be a worthwhile pick is just repeat what they've done.
00:16:03
Holmesy
Even if ah a cherry goes a 114 down to a 113, 112, he's still a good pick ah because you can put the captain, vice captain on him most weeks as well. um And that that plays a ah huge part. So it is it is fascinating and I am excited to to get into these player discussions, Hami. So why don't you kick us
Player Analysis: Tristan Cherry's Potential
00:16:21
Holmesy
off? Who's the first player that you're looking to bring to the table?
00:16:24
Jon Harmey
All right, well, I might as well keep going on the Tristan Cherry line that I started there. So, currently, everybody's on board 56% of the comp at least. So that's that's a fair sort of proportion, not sure. of sure um you know I reckon quite a few of the top end coaches, well, the people that are going to be competitive will have him. So, yep, priced at 115. He took the big leap last season that we expected him to. so We had Goldie go out and pinch it for the mighty bombers um and and left him as a solo, a ruck there with without a great deal of support. So it means that he soldiered on even when he was a bit sore um and had a great season, um had a season high of 168 versus West Coast um a and a floor of 57. I don't think that was injured. So that that was his true floor for the year.
00:17:19
Jon Harmey
um but yeah i guess what changes for him i mean when he was out there he was playing big time on ground um there was hardly anybody getting a chop in he's 26 so he's coming into his prime physically um no early buy i quite like what i see there
00:17:37
Holmesy
JD, 56% of the comp are on board. You, however, are not at this stage. What are you saying that's um talking you out of a Tristan cherry?
00:17:47
JD
So let me preface by saying massive Tristan Cherry fan. In fact, I started him a year too early in 2023. I think Selby did the same in Super Coach actually where, you know, first quarter Randy looked primed to break out that year and unfortunately went down and then came back with Goldie. um So, you know, I had got a hat, but that was potentially a car winning pick a couple of years ago and then was on in last year again as well and and enjoyed the ride the whole way through.
00:18:13
JD
So big big Tristan Cherry fan. um Look, I think the one the main one that people will point out to is just the tackle numbers and the potential regression around that, which I ah think is you know probably fair. um I tend to like to bet against players that have career years, like this, especially when it's a big breakout of 30, 35 plus points. It's somewhat rare to actually see them back that up and not come back to the mean a little bit.
00:18:40
JD
I think Jerry could potentially break the mold. Like, Rucks don't always follow that pattern the same way that some other lines do. And I think, you know, Marshall's a really good example where I i would have said the same thing about him in the last pre-season where he had a really big breakout of, I think, about 25 points going from like a 90 to a 116. And then he backed that up going 117 the year after. um Yeah, it's a pick that I could be talked into. I'm not out on. I don't necessarily buy the regression arguments.
00:19:07
JD
what i'm ah maybe a little bit worried about is how much his numbers were inflated by a softer run on the way home. um Had a lot of very generous ruck matchups from what I remember. um You know, including, I think, he you know, rucked against like Sam De Koning and a couple of teams where they were missing a ruck like West Coast was playing BJ. You know, and and these were some of the big scores came from like, I think he had a 168 on BJ, a 156 on De Koning. So you look at like, once you start thinking like,
00:19:38
JD
Big breakout year, potential regression, played a lot of soft teams on the way home. And then if North gets a little bit better this year, does that mean they rely on Cherry as much as it affects his scoring? um Those are probably reasons where I'm like, it's it's reasonable for him to kind of repeat what he was averaged at. I don't really see any upside. So if I find two better priced guys, I'm happy to avoid Cherry. But if I don't, then he's I think a fallback option for me.
00:20:05
Holmesy
Yep, yeah, I think you summed that up perfectly. He's a good option. We love the way he plays, however, pre-buy he was going at 105 and then I think it was about 125 after the buy with some of those softer match ups. So if he goes 125 to start the year, then everyone's off to the races and those that don't have him are in a lot of trouble or 44% of us. But if he comes out at 105, then that's a fair bit of cash lost and some of the value rucks can make that up. So he's definitely an interesting player and ah he's someone I'm definitely considering JD. Who's your first value ruck that you bring into the table?
00:20:39
JD
Uh, I have got the men I've kind of touched on a little bit already, which is Tom Dikoni. Um,
Tom De Koning's Impact on Carlton
00:20:44
JD
and look, this is, I think probably both of these rucks probably reflect the super coach in me, which doesn't always necessarily translate well to fantasy for the rucks. and one will have to re-evaluate just because hit-outs to advantage, you know, count for so many extra points in that format. Like you can get, I think, five points off a hit-out to advantage. um So it's a ah pretty big difference to just the one that you get for fantasy. But actually, that's probably a good thing for Daconning because really, when it comes to his ruck work, hit-outs aren't his forte. I think he had averaged something like 20 last year. It wasn't wasn't big numbers whatsoever.
00:21:16
JD
but He's I think 22% owns so of the value options We're going to talk about definitely one of the more popular ones hasn't been a sleeper pick. He's priced at 88 Which was his average last year up now he averaged 72 From his seven games with mark pit net, but without pit net he averaged 99 from nine games and the big step that everyone will roll out this preseason is the blues were 8 and 1 when they used Tom de Koning as a solo ruck um But then when they used him and Pidnet together, they were two and five. um So a lot of people are speculating that Carlton will you know also notice these numbers. The media will notice these numbers and they'll get bullied into just running Tom De Kooning as a solo ruck next year, which is where really all this upside comes with. He was already you know kind of going at 100 last year as a solo ruck. And he's also kind of at that point where he's, I think, 26 now. So really starting to get to his prime as a ruck and should be able to add some additional points on to that.
00:22:13
JD
Now, it hasn't been all sunshines and roses for de Koning. So last year he, I think, missed a game due to soreness. And then in round 19 against Cherry, he copped his, I think, worst game of video with the year with a 61. And he managed to play that game with both a punctured lung and a fractured foot, which saw him sit out basically the rest of the way on the sidelines. So a little bit of injury history there and some some uncertainty around whether or not he is a solo ruck, but if he kind of passes both of those things across the pre-season, and then someone that I'm very much interested in, I could see 15 points of upside, which isn't the best. like We've definitely had better options, Cherry, last year as a great example, but you know I think this is more the norm of what you see with the value pick, and if I manage to pick him up at 88 and he went over 100, I'd be'd be very happy. um The only other kind of like little red flag um on him is that
00:23:07
JD
Charlie Kerner, I think, is returning from knee injury and is coming back with quite an interrupted pre-season. If he's not available early on, then I think that is the real chance that they play the second ruck until they get the other forward back. So Tom de Kony would play forward with pitnet rucking. So that's that that's the little watch. But assuming all those things are avoided, I really like Tom as a pick, which is why he's first up for me.
00:23:31
Holmesy
Army is someone that's not currently in your team, considering you're paying up for rocks. What's what's got you scared off about Tom D'Coni?
00:23:38
Jon Harmey
Yeah, look, I can see why um people are getting a bit excited about him. I mean, I mean, the guy against Geelong, admittedly, but a guy hit 131 last ah year as a career, like as he sees in high. Thinking about him, it was a career year, like that was a step up for him to to get to average 88. So um And you know I guess there's a chance that Pitnet comes in or they get a pinch hit a bit more. Look, yeah, I don't know. I think that he should be the main ruck for Carlton and he should have a good season, but there's probably some some level of uncertainty still with it though, I reckon, mate.
00:24:18
Holmesy
And do you think, well, if he goes a hundred, do you think that's a, that's an okay pick, but he'd really need to be pushing sort of, as JD said, that 15 points of upside to go, you know, above 103 ish to, to be a really successful pick or what do you think?
00:24:34
Jon Harmey
Yeah, it's an OK pick. um You know, you're probably going to want to move him on at some point in time. So you have to pick your time of when you do that. You sort of hope that he starts hot. But yeah, look, I guess so I'm sort of interested to some extent, but um I'm just not sure. He's out of contract, isn't he? He hasn't signed with Carlton yet. That's still the case.
00:24:58
Holmesy
um I'm not too sure on that one, so I'm not going to comment.
00:24:59
Jon Harmey
I'm pretty sure that that's it. Remember, both the signings were um out of contract, and I'm pretty sure he still is.
00:25:07
Holmesy
Yeah, I do like the pick and and definitely watching it. It might get a little bit nervous week to week knowing that Pitnet could come in and you might need an escape plan um with his average clearly being a lot lower with Pitnet, but at this stage, he's someone I'm seriously considering.
00:25:22
Holmesy
My first player, we've already spoken about Tristan Cherry, so I'm going to go the other big dog, which is Rowan Marshall, who's 29% owned, so getting a little bit of love ah but nowhere near the amount that Tristan Cherry is getting, which is insane to think about considering he's only priced about four points more per game, so a little bit more expensive. but He's got the runs on the board to back it up. So he's he's gone 117 after going 116 the year prior. And ever since taking over that number one rock roll at St Kilda, he's been above 114.
Rowan Marshall's Performance and Potential
00:25:52
Holmesy
And that saw an average of 126.6 post-buy with a low score of 106. So those numbers are are incredible. And JD spoke about the fact that Tristan Cherry had the the soft run to finish off the year, which might have inflated some of his scores, whereas
00:26:06
Holmesy
Roland Marshall, he was the other way. In that time, he had to play Grundy, um Riley O'Brien, which is a tough ruck matchup, Essendon, who are the the low stoppage team. So they hold the ball. ah Big O, Pitnet, who can be restrictive on his day. So he had some tougher matchups and he was still able to put up those numbers. So seriously, seriously good option. And when we look at runs to start the year and admittedly it's off last year's data,
00:26:31
Holmesy
He's got one of the best rock runs to start. um He's going to come up against Stanley or whoever Geelong's Rockman is to start the year. Nank, who traditionally gives up big points, Sweet, Briggs and English all in his first six games. And I think they play a fair few games at Marvel Stadium um in the first nine games ah to start the year. So, Roland Marshall was seriously good option. I can't understand why he's not getting as much love as Tristan Cherry. The one flag is that ah St.
00:26:59
Holmesy
Kewter have been second last for rock contest in 2024 and 2023.
00:27:01
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:27:04
Holmesy
So they are a high transition team, but Marshall gets the ball on the outside as as good as any rucking in the comp anyway. He acts as that sort of fourth midfielder and and gets a lot of points around the ground as well, JD.
00:27:15
Holmesy
So does Roland Marshall interest you at all as a ah pivot away from Tristan Cherry?
00:27:20
JD
Yeah, he does. And I love that you're using ruck contests. It's one of my favorite things to to go to for explaining what's going on with rucks. And I think what's really interesting about Marshall is not only did the Saints have one of the lowest ruck contest numbers last year, ranking 17th, but in their last five games, they were dead last, um having 83 per game.
00:27:35
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:27:39
JD
Now the league average, I think, was about 94 last year. So 11 stoppages less. Well, 11 less ruck contests per game. over that five game stretch and over that period he managed to go 129 in fantasy so it's actually pretty amazing that even in those lower stoppage games he's able to put up these big scores and when you have a high stoppage game such as round 18 against Adelaide where he managed to have a 119 right contest that's where he put up his 150 so um he can get it done in multiple ways which does really make Royal Marshall interesting. I agree like he should be getting more love. He's durable from what we've seen the last couple of years. Ross loves him like absolutely loves him um and he's backed it up two years in a row um at this really high tally. If he's got a soft fixture as well as one of the better buyers as well to the start of the year he is someone that people probably should be considering more heavily.
00:28:29
JD
I think it may be just that Cherry and owning Cherry was such a fun, rewarding experience last year, where Marshall did start out quite slow and was actually a very frustrating loan. I think I had him for two weeks and traded him back out at one point, something ridiculous like that. It was only the second half of the year that he really caught fire. um So I think that might be why we're seeing so much Cherry love. And it's probably a little bit more excitement around north and weather heading. And, you know, the chance for more winds, more winds usually may lead to more points as well.
00:28:59
JD
That could be what's what's going on. Maybe it's better to ask Kami here about, you know, why have you been leaning maybe a cherry over a marshal? Actually, if he's going too big guns, he's probably got both. So maybe it's a good good segue to talk about who's your favorite and why.
00:29:13
Jon Harmey
Yeah, I do have both at the moment. i um Look, I tell you what, like when you're an owner, watching Royal Marshal is one of the more fun things in fantasy footy because he just smashes it. like You just see him lining up against you know these smaller rucks and he's a big strong guy, knocks him out of the way, gets the tap, then there's a pack forming and he's the one that comes through and clunks the mark. He's just a great player. ah um Yeah, as a starting fantasy option, I mean, again, a career year guy, right, 117, but the year before 116. So he he's pretty consistent and he plays a lot of games. So um yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about Royal Marshall at the minute.
00:29:54
Holmesy
And the one thing I forgot to mention, or I might have touched on it, no, Tom Campbell. So you're no longer worried about Tom Campbell coming in, even though he was barely ever a chance, but it was just something we were sweating on each round. Yes, they've just signed an SPP ruckman. So that needs to be watched in the preseason because we we it is documented that St Kilda have scoring issues and Marshall can definitely get it done up forward. but He's so valuable in the ruck for them as well that I can't see them tinkering with his role too much. Hami, why don't you give us your second player?
00:30:26
Jon Harmey
Well, Holmes, you said that Marshall was the other big dog, but tell you who's not far behind is Maxi Gorn.
Max Gawn's Solo Rucking Impact
00:30:34
Jon Harmey
He a bit of a tale of um two halves, but he went from having Luke Jackson competing with him, Brody Grundy competing with him.
00:30:44
Jon Harmey
to last, you're going back to the solo. ru And I know there's the threat of Tom Gamble moved over to Melbourne, but um he's only there for backup, surely, because Max Gaughan is a jet. Their captain and is a proud guy. I expect him to come out and and um start off quite well as he did last season. So 33 years old, that's a worry, but not so much for Ruckman historically. The older they are, it doesn't really hurt their scoring too much. But look, I don't know, it's a guy that's gone over 100, averaged over 100 seven times.
00:31:21
Jon Harmey
um And, you know, he's coming in priced at 112, but there's probably an argument um that he is under priced in some ways and um he would probably be a sound starting option um and no early buy either. So I think they'll probably, you know, and not be too bad around that midfield with Oliver and Petrarca, Varnie. They'll be there soon enough and potentially um your mate Trent Rivers in their homes.
00:31:53
Jon Harmey
I think that he'll be very good and priced at 112, maybe that's what he is.
00:32:00
Holmesy
Yeah, look, he was he was someone that, unless you were the the winner last year, if you didn't start Max Gorn, you had to have your the rest of your team absolutely spot on because 125 up until his buy, priced at 90 or whatever it was, took the competition away from you. And that's what Max Gorn has the ability to do. If you're someone that gets on him early and he he comes out with some 140s and 150s like we know he's capable of, and you can put a captaincy on that, then you're you're absolutely away to the races. so I'm a little bit nervous with a Max Gorn paying a 1.12 price tag when we did see Post buy him go at 95. I think there is there's always a bit of danger with Max Gorn and his body. He tends to have these in-game injuries and and and miss some games here and there. But yeah, he is someone that should be getting a lot of love. and And even on draft day, I think he's going to be right up there around first and second round because we know what he can do, JD. But what are you thinking about Max Gorn?
00:32:55
JD
Sorry, had the mic on mute there. Kids in the background and all that fun stuff. So, Max was actually one of the ones I've been meaning to have a little bit more of a deep dive into, and the the intro there gave me a good chance to look him up, because his splits last year were actually really interesting with and without Petracka, because that was when the drop-off really came in the second half of the year. So, with Petracka, he averaged 121 last year, which actually suggests that there's maybe still a little bit of upside if they get all the mids back and on the same page this year.
00:33:24
JD
And then once Patraka was gone in the back half there, he managed just the 96 to to finish it finish the year out. And I think he had a little bit of an injury in there as well, which of of course doesn't help. um But it is interesting. I mean, you don't normally talk about someone that's priced at 112 as potentially value. But if Patraka does manage to move his way back from the rib injury, Oliver's looking a little bit better.
00:33:47
JD
Is there a possibility that Gorn is actually closer to a 120, you know, or at least a 115 plus this year rather than where he's priced at as a 112? It's an interesting one because he, you know, we talk about Marshall not getting enough love. Gorn, who's been the steward of the rock line for the better part of a decade now, has basically been in the dust. So I really good, um to I mean, to to kind of bring him up, because I think it's one that does get overlooked a little bit, especially now with his age. i mean You can't ignore that getting a little bit long in the tooth, but you know, also spot on the way you see mids really fall off after 30. That doesn't really seem to hold true for rucks. It's probably closer to that, you know, 32 to 34 range where you can stop, see that drop, which is admittedly where he's at now, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's this year for him.
00:34:35
Jon Harmey
Yeah he um he put a few low scores in there last season and I think he sort of seemed to be going through the motions of carrying an injury at ah times. But listen to this, these are some of the scores he got last year, early on, 137, 146, 149, 134, 152, 122, 148, even at the end of the season, 136, 118.
00:34:58
Jon Harmey
so Yeah, I mean he can get it done Carney um when I look when I did my first ah team for the year in ah before this fantasy opened in Selby's Balter um Platform I had maxi gone in there. So yes somebody that I'm considering
00:35:16
Holmesy
Beautiful. Jaime, thank you for bringing him to our attention. JD, who's your second value pick?
00:35:22
JD
Oh, dear. Look, I feel like I picked the wrong one here. um And so I pop these in and they're like, oh, I better pull out some stats and do some research. And then having a look at him now, I'm like, OK, I'm feeling much more that he's a super coach pick where he's priced at 38 rather than a fantasy pick where he's priced at about 71. And I'm talking about Matt Flynn, who's I think just under 3% owned at the moment. So average just the 61 from four games last year, but those were somewhat injury affected or returning from injury affected. so had just 61% time on ground and 42% CBAs. For those that don't know the story of Flynn, obviously after being traded from GWS last year, impressed in the preseason and look primed to come out as the number one Ruck, but he managed to detach, I think it was his hamstring tendon from his knee during a Ruck drill before the preseason games, ended up missing ah most of the start of the year, well, all of the start of the year, we're only managing to return by round 12.
00:36:18
JD
um but had those kind of four lackluster games and had an ankle complaint that restricted him in that period and then um subsequently more or less finished his year at the AFL level where he then went you know fixed that ankle then played five games the waffle and then year over. um So this is another one where there is potential upside with him coming back as a number one ruck.
00:36:39
JD
But there has been some talk that he actually won't be and they'll just persist with BJ Williams, which is interesting. He's kind of like that tweener size. It doesn't really feel like he's a proper ruck, but it all it worries me. I don't think that's going to happen, but it even just worries me that's being talked about this early in the preseason. I think maybe the thing that worried me a little bit more when going back through some of his old numbers um is that At his GWS days, I thought his numbers were affected by rucking with Kieran Briggs, but actually in 2023 and 2022, the same thing happened in both years, which was he started out as a solo ruck and then got dropped and Briggs replaced him.
00:37:12
JD
And then they've also moved on from him.
00:37:13
Jon Harmey
Yep.
00:37:14
JD
Um, so i managed 74 from I think about like eight games in 2023. And in 2022, we averaged 68 from I think 12 games. So, you know, quite low scores, but he's also another one that's now hitting the age of 27, where, you know, if he had a full preseason under him, number one rock roll, then you could see some upside.
Sean Darcy as a Value Pick
00:37:35
JD
But umm I'm looking at him now, like if he was priced at what he averaged last year at 60, I think there's a lot more scope. Starting at a 71, you're still looking for probably something in the 90s to make this worthwhile. And do I see see Flynn being that guy? Probably not in fantasy. So while he's in my side at the moment, I think this is a ah drop it like a top candidate right here. And moving on maybe to who else you're going to talk about, Holmsey or one of the big dogs that we've already spoken about.
00:38:00
Holmesy
i think I think Flynn is actually priced around 60, is he not? He gets priced off his 71 average, but he only played four games, which means he gets a ah ah discount. um so Was he 78 the year before?
00:38:09
JD
so Don't they then take his 78 from the year before and then give the 10% discount which gets him to a 71?
00:38:16
JD
I might be mixing up my supercoach and my fantasies at this point.
00:38:17
Holmesy
this
00:38:20
JD
No, he was 74 the year before. His price is weird then.
00:38:23
Jon Harmey
I think he's 61 and he's still overpriced in my opinion.
00:38:26
Holmesy
Yeah.
00:38:26
JD
No way is he 61.
00:38:27
Holmesy
Yeah, I'll just I'll just rattle off some numbers from the waffle last year and ah admittedly he was coming back from that hamstring injury and then he did ah an ankle as well. So clearly his body wasn't right. But typically we see Rachman dominate the lower tier levels because they're so much bigger and fitter than everyone else. But these were the scores to finish off the year in the the waffle. So 57, 101, 76, 70, 81 and 81.
00:38:50
Holmesy
And to top it off, this is his run to start the year. So he opens up with Gold Coast, then he has Brisbane, Fremantle, GWS, Colton, and Essendon. So he's got a really tough run to start. um And that's when, if you're picking Flynn, you really need him to get off to the races so he can kickstart his cash gen and get off him. So I think Matt Flynn's definitely a pass in AF at this point in time. ah But ah from a super coach perspective, being priced so low is definitely a conversation in that format, JD.
00:39:18
JD
I hate what you're doing to me. Give me a little bit of hope. He's actually 10 points cheaper than what you thought. He's back on. and then And then you read out a ruck schedule where I'm like, oh, back off. um So, yes, look, he was only in his speculative pick anyway. And the more we talk about it, the the less I like him as an option. So, yeah, definitely one that I can still see myself moving on from.
00:39:39
Holmesy
Alright, so my last pick is Sean Darcy from Freo and this is going to have a big caveat on it that he had off-season surgery and he's still not back in full training yet. So, interrupted pre-season is always something we we at least have caution on. But he's a bit of a he's a bit of a forgotten man and the argument is there that Luke Jackson is now at Freo and he's going to eat into a little bit of his ruck time. But I think Freo much prefer Luke Jackson as that dynamic forward who just pinch hits in the ruck. And in an ideal world, that ever fit Sean Darcy rucking 70, 75, 80% of the time and just have Luke Jackson um chopping out. So
00:40:19
Holmesy
This is the reason that he's a bit of a forgotten man. So he's priced at just under 78 after the injury affected year from last year, but he has had years of 94 and 95. So he was 94 in 95 in 2023, but he's got periods of time in the game where he's averaged a hundred. So in 2021, he started forward coming back off an injury in the pre-season, but after the first three games, he actually went at a hundred for the rest of the year. so There's potential there. And then in 2023, if you take out his injured games, which we can do, but with caution because it's Sean Darcy and he does get injured, he averaged 101 in that time as well. So he's a player that has potential to put up 100 average for a stretch of games. And that's really what we would want as a value ruck. You'd be hoping that he can have a a good 10, 11, 12 game stretch, potentially get you to the buyers where he can average 100 plus.
00:41:15
Holmesy
And in a world where maybe a Tristan Cherry regresses or a Royal Marshal doesn't go as well, if you can get a Sean Darcy pushing into the hundreds and closing that gap and you've saved the cash elsewhere, then you're ah you're in the game. And he has one of the best ruck runs to start. um He's got Geelong. He's going to play the Eagles. um I think he plays GWS where Briggs gives up some points. So the run is there. I think he might even have a Nank. Don't quote me on that, but I think.
00:41:42
Holmesy
So, I'm interested in a Sean Darcy if he's fit and healthy, which is a big if. It's a bit of a risk, especially if you're going two value rucks, because if he goes down or a TDK goes down, then what parachute options do you have? yeah You're looking at a Flynn or someone else. So, it is it is risky, but Hami, Sean Darcy, it's the type of player that it's high risk, high reward, and we know to be successful in this game, you have to take a punt, but does Sean Darcy interest you at all?
00:42:09
Jon Harmey
Well, Holmsey, you said he could be 100 plus, but he's never done it before. You say he could play out the season in injury free, but he's never done it before. I just don't know about Sean Darcy. um You know, in the positives column, ah looks like they are persisting with Luke Jackson being the forward, which I'm not sure he is. but looks like they love Jackson, Tracy and Amis up forward so that's what they want. They want Sean there banking on Sean Darcy coming in and being their number one rock, but sorry number one ruck but I mean he still does get a chop out doesn't he so he doesn't ever play those really high time on ground and his tank doesn't seem to be able to handle it anyway so
00:42:52
Jon Harmey
Look, I guess I'm interested out of those value guys. I think hes he probably is the best if he can get on the park and stay on the park.
00:43:03
Holmesy
Yeah, look, he if he goes 100, it's an absolute smash pick. But if he can get back to his mid 90s average, which we've seen him do twice in the past from a 78 price point, that's that's a good pick. um And it gives you time to to assess the options, mate. It's filled with risk. But ah I think it's definitely a conversation we need to have, JD. And as someone that's looking at value rocks, now that Flynn's gone, I think you don't have a choice, but you're going to have to pivot across.
00:43:28
JD
He's already in my side. Welcome to the top team, Shrek. No, looks Shrek, I've loved for a while. Sorry, this what this is what we call Darcy and have done for a while. I think just the resemblance to the big rumbling ogre that can ruin your swamp or swamp your team very quickly if things don't go well. So I love him. Love him as a pick. I've been on him since day one, really. Actually, now that we speak about it. um I think what you've pointed out is spot on that the injury risk is really the thing here. I think we've seen enough um over the last two years to actually know that Jackson being in the side doesn't affect Darcy scoring that much, or at least I'm sure it does to an extent, like having Darcy Ruck alone would be even better. um By having him in the side, he still seems to be able to produce well with it. It's more just around whether or not his body's at that level. And I feel like we haven't even touched on the most important thing of the process and so far, which is the pick where
00:44:23
JD
everyone talks about how how fit and slim he looks and I look at that with the side by side of last year and I cannot tell the difference so I don't know if I'm just body blind at this point or what's going on. um it He maybe looks a little bit skinnier but for me I'm probably putting more weight into whether or not he actually has a full pre-season and then can and managed to get through the workload and what that looks like as to whether or not I end up picking him.
00:44:46
Holmesy
So JD, i'll I'll pose the question because I'm always a little bit cautious here. So he's been coming back from surgery. So he's not back in full contact training at the moment. He's still building up his running loads. If he plays a practice game and he's named for round one, does it, does it interest you? You pick him or do you think that there's always going to be the risk that he's underdone and he's potentially a sub candidate early days, knowing that they do have Luke Jackson in the side and it's an easy sub out flip.
00:45:14
JD
Look, it' so he's doing sprint work already, right? um I think even in his better years, like 2023, for example, I think he had something like low 70s time on ground. So it's not exactly like where' we're expecting him to be like, you know, high 80s, you know, type range, which you see from some other players.
00:45:33
JD
We don't need massive time on ground. So as long as there's no setbacks during the pre-season, he plays that practice game you should talk about, um that's probably enough for me to go in on him, just given his scoring history and the run that he has early on, especially if I'm still kind of wavering on some of those other more popular options. Like if I became really confident in Cherry on Marshall, I think I'd be happy to let a Darcy go. But if everything goes well and I'm still not in love with those other guys, then yeah, sure, sign me up. We can we can do a show on Darcy for sure.
00:46:03
Holmesy
We'll be alone on the island together, JD, so I look forward to look forward to seeing you there. All right, guys, before we get into just a few more players that have been requested by the listeners, I just want to let you all know that this episode is brought to you by Magic Sports.
Sponsorship Mention and Nick Bryan Debate
00:46:18
Holmesy
Really good to have them come on board this year as our sponsors. And for those of you that don't know, Magic Sports is the platform created by Selby from Moreira's Magic, ah where they have their two two platforms this year. So the Team Picker, which we've already spoken about, um but Slider is their new draft platform. So there's plenty happening in the draft space in 2025.
00:46:38
Holmesy
um If you're looking to have your draft leagues on the platform, so they've got all their customizable leagues, um including trading trading draft picks. If you've got keeper leagues, being able to customize all the scoring um for all the different scoring systems you want to have, or the utility positions, and that's all free.
00:46:56
Holmesy
um And they're actually building it out as a bit of a tool for your draft as well. So they've got the mock draft, which I've been actually using a lot. So being able to draft against a computer from different positions and see, you know, what players you're likely to pick and have available to you come draft day.
00:47:12
Holmesy
Um, and they've got their weekly waiver wire articles. Once the season gets going, which will be really good. And the, this thing I'm really excited for harm either the single entry survivor comp. So being able to draft a team, which is, uh, the most fun part of draft day, but then turning it into a bit of a classic comp as well. So you'll draft a team, um, against, um, some strangers and then your goal is to try and win that league. And then you're going to be pegged against the winners from all the other leagues.
00:47:37
Holmesy
in ah in a single survivor comp. And what's really good about it, especially for us with kids, is that it's an optimized squad. So you don't have to worry about who's looping, who your captain is. You just pick your team and then you get the optimal score each week, depending on how your team goes. ah So make sure you're you're signing up to so Slider. It's only going to go ahead if we can get enough people registered. So I'm really excited for that comp in 2025.
00:48:03
Holmesy
All right, I've got two Essendon men here. So Hammeh, I always throw to you as the Essendon guy on the pod. So I'm going to throw this one to you, JD. I'm seeing a bit of love around Mick Bryan as a starting option this year for Essendon. Why don't you talk to us a little bit about Mick Bryan?
00:48:19
JD
oh Geez, so I'm i'm against the pick. Let's just put cards out on the table. I'm against the pick. um So there's a couple of reasons I think both Essendon related.
00:48:33
JD
Firstly, watching or being part of the Essendon fanbase is miserable. So you should try and avoid that at every point in in your life if you can. And that means avoiding picking players from Essendon if you're able to.
00:48:44
JD
um But I think
00:48:44
Holmesy
Excuse me, Nick Martin, number one fan, fanboy.
00:48:47
JD
Yeah, sorry. Well, that was, that was good, but I mean, still a hard watch for the rest of the game. Let's be real. And Merritt, look, we love Merritt. But um Essendon has perpetually been one of the lowest ruck contest sides over the last four years. It's a them and St Kilda, absolute bros when it comes to not having ruck contests. So 2022 and 2023, 18th last year, they improved all the way to 15th. So less ruck stoppages per game. And then um We're playing two rocks. We've played two rock system for a while now under Brad Scott. I haven't heard any talk that he's planning on moving away from that, even though there definitely does seem to be a little bit of a trend in the lead to go back to one rock system. Maybe we're just going to be a laggard when it comes to that. um But I still see, you know, Draper being the number one rock and then Brian or Goldie being runners a second. And that's what Essendon will assist with.
00:49:38
JD
Now, if this changes, I think that that's pretty interesting, but I'm still not sure that Brian's gonna be the one that's picked over Dre bar. Despite, I think, Essendon fans maybe being ready for a change. Maybe that's where some of this discussion's coming from. um that you know Brian's shown a little bit, I think at the NFL level, he's actually one of the better scorers, just full stop. And so, you know anytime you see numbers at that second tier kind of popping up, then you get some love. but ah I honestly can't see it. I don't really see him taking the number one mantle in the preseason. I don't see us going back to one right system and I don't see us having a bunch of extra stoppages this year. So I'm not really sure um outside of his price and his VFL numbers a reason why he'd break out this year.
00:50:24
Holmesy
Yeah, look, k can't stress it enough in fantasy that we can't be picking ruckmen that are in dual ruck setups, getting 50% ruck time. They're just not good enough scorers around the ground to make them worthwhile picks. So although he's priced at 60, around 60, I think, um had scores of 75, 81 and 70 last year, and they were in tough match-ups when he wasn't vested. So he can score, um but yeah, the the two rucks set up.
00:50:50
Holmesy
um scares me off and unless they come out and they say we're going with one rock and it's it's Nick Bryan, it's is a pass. But Hami, you've got your hand up, itching to speak.
00:50:59
Jon Harmey
JD, could I get you to change your mind by telling by telling you that Nick Bryan had 14 games in the VFL last season averaging 107?
00:51:03
JD
Yeah, go for it.
00:51:12
JD
Those are some great numbers. I love those numbers. Do you know the benefit of playing in the VFL? It doesn't have to play with the second ruck. And they probably have more ruck contests too, if we're being honest.
00:51:23
Holmesy
i'll I'll caveat that by saying before Sam Draper came into the comp, when everyone was looking to pick him as the rookie rock, I think he had three games in the VFL where he went 130, 140, and 150. So not not sure what we can take from that. But yeah, Nick Bryan, pre-season watch to see roll, but unless Essendon changed their system, he's not someone we can advocate picking harmi. What about a Jordan Sweet? So this one's been thrown to us and A little bit of a tidbit from Chris, who won the comp last year, is Jordan Sweets. Jordan Sweets is someone that he's looking to start, so priced at 83.
Jordan Sweet and Lloyd Meek's Fantasy Value
00:51:58
Holmesy
He had a sub-affected injury game last year, so you remove that, it goes up to 85. He's been ah a big VFL scorer in the past and has shown a ceiling last year of a 120.
00:52:09
Holmesy
Is he more in that mold of a Tristan Cherry, where he's a grinder and and needs to get those tackles up, but can you see a world where, not Tristan Cherry, where Jordan Sweets are a value rack option for us?
00:52:22
Jon Harmey
Yeah, well, that's right. Speaking of former VFL pigs, he's definitely won. And, yeah, I mean, even last year he scored 120 against Freo, didn't he? So, you know, everything going his way, he could put up some big scores. I just can't bring myself to do it. I mean, he's priced at 82. What do we think is the best that he could average? Could he get to 100? Do you reckon, Holmesy?
00:52:49
Holmesy
I wouldn't have thought so where you see someone like a Kieran Briggs kind of in that same sort of model. And and he goes at 94, 95. I think that would probably be the absolute ceiling if everything went his way.
00:53:02
Holmesy
But I mean, speaking of GWS, JD had the nail on the head before when it was Flynn, then it was Briggs, then it was Flynn, then it was Briggs.
00:53:02
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:53:08
Holmesy
Well, at Port Adelaide, it was soldo, then it was sweet, then it was soldo, then it was sweet. so Could you be guaranteed that Solto is going to have that number one rock roll for enough of a time to to get some ceiling scores and get his price shooting up? That's what I'd be nervous about.
00:53:23
Jon Harmey
Yeah and and then also like you're throwing the mix now Todd Marshall has gone down with an Achilles so is there a potential that one's either solo or sweet is going to play forward at times?
00:53:36
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah. Fantastic point, Hami. So definitely something to monitor. JD is the value ruck guy. Jordan Sweet has made his way into your team.
00:53:42
JD
Yeah. I was hoping you two could actually illuminate as to why people were interested in him because I i don't get it. um It feels like one of those picks where we're banking on some type of like natural progression or breakout. When he was rucking last year, I don't think there was actually a second ruck in there. He had one game with Soledad early on where he scored poorly, but the rest of it he was rucking by himself. So 13 of his 14 games he had more than 70% of the CBAs, he had over 70 RUC contests, which is right up there with the top numbers. Like if you're having over 70 RUC contests again, you are the number one RUC in there most of the time. And he averaged 83. So where where's the progression coming from? Where's the upside? um That feels like you're just banking while another year as the number one RUC and he'll come good.
00:54:27
JD
um without having dug into his history last year, was the injury affected? It doesn't look like it in many of these games, but you know, maybe a full preseason if you didn't have one last year is where some of that up says I just don't, I don't get it. I don't know where it's coming from. So for me, if someone knows why people are keen on sweep, please let me know. I just, I can't say it in the numbers. Can't say it in the data.
00:54:53
Holmesy
Yeah, yeah, beautiful. Last one I've got for you JD is Lloyd Meek. So a little bit of a breakout last year after winning the number one rock roll from Reeves at Hawthorne. So average 91. So he's priced pretty heavily. I suppose I think I know what you're going to say where this is just another one where you're banking on a bit of natural progression to take into the next level, but I don't I don't necessarily see Lloyd Meek as someone that has the fantasy game to to really break out and go 100. I think he's a very good grinder where he battles hard at the contest, he tackles, he gets the hit outs, but I'm not sure he's got the game around the ground to to really, really elevate. But Lloyd Meek, much thought.
00:55:31
JD
Yeah, he was someone that I think was actually priced really well in supercoach last year So he he became a quite a good value option that people jumped on and wrote him up So definitely a bit of love for me because he was at a good pick in that format last year um But yeah, I mean it's i I'd love to actually just pick your brain on how you're evaluating Hawks at the moment. Do you look at the score over the last year? Do you look at just that kind of hot ball run at the end and say, that's what they're going to be going forward? I'm not really sure how to do it, but when I split up and make, he's actually, I think still pretty consistent across both of those. So post by around 16 on he averaged 89, he's priced at I think 88, which was his average for the year. So ah yeah, I think you'd once again banking on natural progression. Do we see that coming next year?
00:56:17
JD
Not really. So, you know, maybe he goes from an 88 to a 95, kind of pushes up a little bit. And he might be a decent draft option, but I don't really see it from a classic perspective of why he'd present more value than a TDK, Darcy, maybe even a Flynn. And I think I'd rather just pick a premium rather than take the gamble on someone like Meek. But yeah, I don't know if you've got any thoughts on that.
00:56:45
Holmesy
Yeah, I mean, with with Hawthorne, the way they play, you would assume they're going to continue on the way that they were, right?
00:56:46
Jon Harmey
Yeah.
00:56:50
Holmesy
The Hockball was working. They they were a post away from a prelim and and one of the best teams in it. um So I don't know, maybe as they get better, they're able to control the footy a little bit more and and don't need to rely so much on the Hockball.
00:57:03
Holmesy
They were coming from behind. in ah in a fair few games, but it was working for them. But yeah, this is the this is the one once again that you are banking on natural progression. I can't see him being more value than a ah TDK. I think TDK has more tricks so he can he can win more ball around the ground. But admittedly, Waintman has won as many hit outs as what ah Lloyd Meat will. But Hami, last closing thoughts on a Lloyd Meat.
00:57:26
Jon Harmey
ah Well, the Hawks have the early buy too, don't they? So, I mean, where's their, their buy is in round, sorry, round four.
00:57:34
JD
It's four, I think it's this.
00:57:36
Holmesy
Round four with Essendon.
00:57:39
Jon Harmey
Yeah, he'd definitely you'd have to put up a thumping score in round zero for you to consider him, I reckon.
00:57:45
Holmesy
Oh, I'm just going to have to go change my team. I just had Nick Bryan and Lloyd Meek at R1 and R2, but they both got the same buy.
00:57:49
JD
All right,
00:57:51
Holmesy
So I'm going to have to change that.
00:57:53
JD
so just on on that on that note, if you went 120 and around zero, are you considering?
00:57:53
Holmesy
But anyway, that's going to wrap us up.
00:57:59
Jon Harmey
No.
00:58:01
Holmesy
No, not
00:58:01
JD
So you really, you talking like it has to be like a 140 or 150 something undeniable here.
00:58:06
Jon Harmey
ah yeah That had turned my head.
00:58:08
JD
Yeah. Okay. All right. Good to know.
00:58:11
Holmesy
Beautiful. Thanks guys. That's been ah been a huge chat on the Ruckman listeners. I hope you got value for that because as JD pointed out at the start of the start the episode, how you going the Ruckline this year is going to be so crucial to setting you up. and And it is really
Conclusion and Social Media Reminders
00:58:25
Holmesy
exciting. I know a lot of coaches were concerned that AFL fantasy has become very vanilla and a lot of teams have Uh, the same starting teams to start, but I think with the forward line being the way that it is this year, it's just opening up so many possibilities in your rock mid and defense, which means we're going to have a lot of variance, which is cool. So JD, thanks for jumping on. I know you're a little bit quieter these days, but where can the listeners find you on the socials?
00:58:48
JD
Yeah, thanks for having me. Firstly, they can follow me on Twitter at Jackson Davey if they want to. I'll probably tweet some stuff throughout the year, but look, it's not an urgent follow.
00:58:57
Jon Harmey
Thank you.
00:58:57
JD
I'm sure there's much more active content creators and people you can be following, um many of the people you'll have on the podcast over the the next month. But yeah, thank you. Thank you for having me. It's been a pleasure.
00:59:08
Holmesy
Nah, my pleasure mate. Always very good to chat to you and, and Hami, where can the listeners find you?
00:59:15
Jon Harmey
Oh, well, I'm on X, John Harvey on X, Hamsy, but you're really just better off finding me here on the Pod Pod. But and just a quick question, JD, did I swing you to um start any of those high priced rucks or are you still is sticking with the value?
00:59:30
JD
Yeah, TDK and Trek, let's go. um um I'm always going to start value and then get scared off them as we get closer around one.
00:59:32
Jon Harmey
da
00:59:36
JD
So I'll keep in the risky ones. But yeah, I can definitely see myself moving to one of those big, big primo rucks. And by the sounds of things, you haven't been swayed the other way. You're not coming, you're not putting a little Tom de Koning in there maybe, sneaky Pete.
00:59:50
Jon Harmey
Not yet. Nah, not yet.
00:59:54
Holmesy
Awesome. and Then make sure you're following us at Pod Pod AFL on X, and I'm at homies heroes. um Make sure you're following us on Spotify, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. If you could leave us a rating and review, that would be greatly appreciated. We're continuing with our position previews next week. So we're going to tackle the forwards. We're going to leave the defenders for a little bit longer. And we we do have another good special guest coming up next week, the the godfather of fantasy. so enjoy that. And ah we'll be back with another episode of The Homes Files soon, but take care.
01:00:42
Jon Harmey
Good job boys.