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The Holmes Files - Early Strategy Discussions with Moreira’s Magic #PODPOD
1.6k Plays2 days ago
Continuing The Holmes Files series, this week two-time top 10 finisher and runner up in 2021 Holmesy sits down with Moreira’s Magic AKA Selby the GOAT of AFL Fantasy. Selby has back to back top place finishes in AFL Fantasy in 2017 and 2018 as well as another top 100 finish in 2020. When it comes to chatting AFL Fantasy, no one is more credentialed than Selby is! Despite giving away Fantasy after 2020, Selby has since moved to SuperCoach where he has continued to shape the way the game is played, with his guide helping many coaches finish inside the top 10.
In this episode, Selby joins Holmesy for an intimate one on one interview to help set the scene for AFL Fantasy in 2025. Despite it still being early, they discuss all the learnings from the winner last year, who just happens to be Selby’s brother in law! From there they turn their attention towards a winning strategy required in the upcoming 2025 season. Enjoy!
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This episode was brought to you by Magic Sports. Magic Sports have a number of new products to help take your fantasy games to the next level:
AFL Fantasy Team Picker - https://picker.bolter.team/login
Bolter is a platform that allows you to pick your AFL Fantasy classic side before the game has opened. Not only that, there are a number of awesome features for you to help build your starting squads:
- tool for preseason to help select your starting squad
- save down multiple versions
- put in projected averages and see cash gen and scoring potential of each version
- bye detector, priced at, breakevens and other advanced stats
- http://picker.bolter.team
Slyder - https://www.slyder.team/login
- plenty happening in the draft space in 2025 and Slyder has something for every drafter
- customised leagues, including trading draft picks, custom bye round scores and utility positions - all free
- tools for your draft, mock draft lobby, ranks, weekly waiver wire articles
- single entry survivor comp - free entry and prizes on offer
- http://slyder.team
Follow us on X:
The PODPOD: @podpodAFL
Holmesy: @Holmesyheroes
Lewy: @LewyAF
Harmey: @jonharmey
Dos: @HKdos
Selby: @MoreirasMagic
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Transcript
Introduction and Guest Announcement
00:00:19
Speaker
G'day and welcome to the Pod Pod at Tomesy here talking all things AFL fantasy classic. Welcome back to another episode of The Holmes Files where we deep dive and interview some of the brightest minds in the AFL fantasy community.
Selby's Achievements and New Ventures
00:00:31
Speaker
And we've got a very special guest on today. We've had some good guests so far, but we've decided that it's time we go straight to the top of the tree. ah this This man, back to back AFL fantasy classic champion in 2017, 2018, decided to take some time off.
00:00:47
Speaker
um but came back in 2020 just to get his third hat before he said, I'm done. The game's too easy. I'm going to move over to Super Coach. I've got Selby from Moreira's Magic. Selby, thanks for jumping on, mate. How are you? Holmesy. Oh, good, mate. Thanks for the very nice intro. Top of the tree, you reckon? ah It's been a while since the two of us have been top of the tree, and but now it could be on. I've really enjoyed the Holmes files to date, obviously last year.
00:01:12
Speaker
Very much so, and then so far this year come with a bang with Tommy, our ball boys, and old Chris, very enjoyable to listen, so good to join those crew. Yeah, I really, I really enjoy these podcasts, being able to go one-on-one um with some of the, like I said, the brightest minds and and really getting into the nitty gritty for the the strategy chat, which we're we're going to do
Selby's Ongoing Projects and Fantasy Involvement
00:01:33
Speaker
today. And it's always good to get your insight. Like, even though you haven't played AFL fantasy for a while now, you're still playing the super coach. So, yeah, your head's in the game. You've got your your guide, which I'm sure we'll get to at some point. But why don't you just give us a little bit of a
00:01:48
Speaker
Sort of an update on where you're at in 2025 and some of the things you have going on at the moment. Yep. So obviously still producing content. I think this would be eighth year of the season guard or season preview, which we put out at the start of each fantasy season, which goes through profiles of each player, the stats, which I like to see as important. Obviously there's podcasts, which go along with that as well. Xavier Ellis heads those with us. So that's what we're doing on the content side, but a few extra tools and pages, which I'm looking forward to getting out there this year as part of Maria's Magic, because we haven't given
00:02:28
Speaker
Morera's as much love the website itself in the last few
New Fantasy Platforms and Slider Introduction
00:02:31
Speaker
years. We've been so focused on this magic sport, which has also been spending a lot of our time. So that's ah a separate little product with the Wongster who, those who don't know, is the data guru who does a lot of the data for me for Morera's magic. And we've started creating our own platforms.
00:02:50
Speaker
with her on that. So it's kicked off with AFLW fantasy, I think about three years ago now before there was the official one. And then with the platform we've built from there, we've sort of ventured off and running a few little separate free to play products or games. So we we did a a opening round comp last year, a finals comp. a bolter season long for the men's last year um using that same platform. This year is a bit of a tool for the AFL fantasy classic where you can ah you could pick your team before the official game opened, the team picker.
00:03:27
Speaker
um But now the game's open, you can still save down various versions of your team and put in your own projections and it spits out price projections and scoring projections for those different iterations that can help you pick which team you think's best to start your season off with. So that's kind of where Bolt is heading, a bit more of a companion product for the official game. We still get to finalize how that will look if we're going to run our own men's comp this upcoming year, we've got a few ideas in the work and im I'm sure we'll deep dive into some strategy and how the blueprint's changed over the years with sideways trading and these extra buy arounds and targeting value. So we've looked at a few ways just to kind of change a few things there to just to add an extra challenge or um provide a different way to play fantasy for those who want a different puzzle to try to solve.
00:04:22
Speaker
But where we've spent a lot of the time in the last year is on this new draft platform called Slider, which we're really excited about. um It's a customisable draft platform where you can set up your own league and do things such as trading draft picks and a whole lot of other stuff, which now the AFL recently announced that I've done a full rebuild of their draft platform and it appears that it looks really good on face value. So again, a bit like with Boulder, we've kind of pivoted Slider to be, again, a bit of a companion tool for if you play draft. We've got mock drafts where you can mock draft against an educated computer, which which is a really good experience. You can mock draft against other drafts drafters. It's got draft ranks in their ADPs and what
00:05:13
Speaker
again, I'm really excited about is a survivor comp where we're running a a separate competition where you draft against a group of randoms, free to enter. um You'll then be put in a pool where you essentially play like you do in classic, but with the draft team you've you've drafted. So it's like you're going for an overall rank we're out there to try to find the best draft in Australia.
00:05:38
Speaker
um but rather than all having the same forward line like you're doing classic, if you're really like McCray, well, how early are you going to go on him in this slider competition?
Fantasy Game Strategies and Evolutions
00:05:47
Speaker
um So encourage everyone who's listening if you want a different way to play fancy this year or a companion way to play, jump on slider.team and free registration for the slider survivor. We obviously need a certain amount of amount of numbers to get this sort of knockout slash survivor comp running. So Please jump on, Fredo Winton, it should be a fun alternative way to play fantasy in 2025.
00:06:15
Speaker
Yeah, it sounds awesome, man. I'm really looking forward to it all the the tools that you mentioned that are really good as well. Like the mock draft, there's been a few few of them around, but nothing really solid. So let's say for drafters, I know that's going to be a big help for me um just ah to have a look and see where certain players are going and and having a bit of an idea. I tend to go in pretty blind um when I draft, which is not ideal now when you're playing in in cash leagues and things like that. so I'm super excited about that. and Especially your draft, Lee. You've tell of me some of the punishments, not just for the last place, but you give punishments for anyone from second to last. so yeah The mock draft's also really good. um It's not just for single season, it's keepers. And then the the computers rank who they think are the best keeper selections. And then also for an existing keeper, Lee, you can also do a mock draft and
00:07:11
Speaker
It gets rid of the likely players who have been kept in your league. So you'll see more like your Jagger Smith and Levi Ashcroft coming off one and twos. It again gives you a good gauge or idea of of who's going off the board for whatever draft type you're in. so And again, if you're playing survivor, if you're doing these mock drafts to help you try to win a ah cash prize for a free land to comp. So um you encourage everyone to check it out. I'm really happy with how it's all turned out.
00:07:41
Speaker
Yeah, yep, really good. All right, so let's jump into our strategy talk. So I thought we'd we'd spend a bit of time sort of reminiscing about, you know, the glory days when we were good. So you're very famous for your blueprint and a lot of your Morera's magic.
00:07:56
Speaker
ah content sort of revolves around the blueprint of what's worked in the past. So I thought we'd start there because I still think a lot of it is relevant. um And then we can sort of discuss how things might have changed with the but opening round, best 18, rolling lockouts, et cetera. So let's talk a little bit about the blueprint and what made you so successful back when you were playing fantasy. Yeah, so a lot of the philosophies which I lived by in 2017, 2018, 2020 and what I've been preaching my guide ever since is that targeting value and not just getting a few values or mid prices but every player in your in your squad, potentially there's some exclusions and we'll speak about those in ah in a bit but you want to see upside in each and every one of those players and
00:08:49
Speaker
That's still certainly the case. What's changed, obviously, we'll go into these in a bit, too, is these new buyers, the early buyers, the extra trades we've had with these extra mid-season buyers, which means teams are being completed sooner, the sideways trading, the 23rd premium, 24th premium. So that's all a different rolling lockout to different beasts than what we were used to. But in terms of targeting value, I remember, well,
00:09:17
Speaker
and I think old Tommy Hayes put out the question before about Supercoach and what to look out for there. which They've still got the fixed trade element to their game, which is what fantasy or dream team used to be. It used to be 30 trades um for a season, which typically 10 of those go towards um mistakes or sideways trading, which left most teams with 20 trades for the year to do their upgrades. So knowing that one and to do an upgrade, you have to do one down, one up.
00:09:46
Speaker
So that's 10 spots on your field you could upgrade, which meant most teams were going in each season with 12 keepers, knowing that, well, you're going to have to own them at one point anyway. You might as well start with them regardless of the price. And it was only up until even last year, people were paying up for a quantum Pele price at the 116 as the keeper. and The years before, people were starting with the Rory lead, top price, Jack Steele, top price, two Miller top price.
00:10:14
Speaker
Whereas the big shift is the whole community is now well aware that ah the idea and how to best succeed in this game, which the idea is to complete the team as quick as possible, is to target value to make sure that you can get those rookies off the field as quick as possible, generate as much cash as you can. So then once you've got that fully upgraded team of rookies off the field, we've got enough trades up our sleeve to keep turning those sort of under priced premiums who might not be top of the line, but they're going to do their job to turn them into those top of the line premiums. And we talk keepers. I think I heard Mitch say on the pod chat with you that I think there was one player he kept all season. So keepers are a thing of the past in
00:10:59
Speaker
in fantasy and that's that's certainly the way I played it. I remember after I won in 2017, I did a team reveal after round one and the comments, I should dig up the tweet, the comments on my team, because I didn't start a Tom Mitchell who was priced at 120 or 130, whatever it was, um the comments I had was, oh, it just shows this game's luck. What an average team. What a bunch of spuds. Because I was pick at all these other price guys, I had a Patraca in there.
00:11:29
Speaker
who was coming off a 70, I had a, um if that was the year I'm thinking of, like as it it worked. Whereas now you're looking at all these teams, awardee put up the the most popular team based off ownership percentages. And you look at an odd happily roll out round one with that team that the community is now well aware that the value is the play.
00:11:53
Speaker
where things have changed since our glory days are obviously these early buy-arounds. That's the big change. And then these rolling lockouts where I don't think I could have ever had any success in rolling lockouts. I was obviously playing a bit of footy myself when I was doing well. And every Saturday we did spend getting out there, whether you're playing reserves or playing league or watching the reserves and watch the league after presentations, you wouldn't watch any footy on it on a Saturday. So if there's an L.D. you laid out, you'd be cooked.
00:12:23
Speaker
Whereas, yeah, I remember those times I'd asked the runner had come out, give us water. I'd say, Oh, what's Dyson Heppel on shows how long that was when I was doing well and find out what his score was. So you certainly have to be a lot more switched on and active in this day and age, but you can use, I know I've been saying that as a, is a bad thing. We've set both for up to be a means we can play. We don't have to be as hands on with.
00:12:48
Speaker
um fixed lockouts and injury subs, but working with my brother-in-law, Chris, who took it out last year and learning a lot from him, you can certainly use that to your advantage and you'd certainly have to use that to your advantage to succeed in this day and age in terms of getting two looks at rookie scores and early in the year, getting two looks at premium scores late in the year, being able to ah put a popular player as an emergency to sort of hope that if they do a bad score, then that's one way you can leap against the competition. There's a whole lot of cat-mouse games you can play late in the year, which that's kind of where this game has got to. And and you probably do have to buy into that to succeed.
00:13:33
Speaker
Yeah, so I suppose that I remember looking at one of your starting squads back would have been 2017, 18, whenever it was. And I don't think you had a player priced over a hundred where a lot of us were still paying up, which meant that you were able to get start less rookies for one and then you're able to get them off quicker. I suppose.
00:13:53
Speaker
where it's different now and it's interesting to talk to you about this is the best 18 to start. I mean, there was four rounds of best 18 last season and there's three rounds this year. Do you think the the strategy still holds up where you're trying to get, yeah we are still trying to get the rookies off the field, but when you can hide behind best 18 for the first four rounds of the season,
00:14:16
Speaker
those rookie scores are going to drop off, which means you can potentially afford to to pay up a little bit more to try and get the ceiling scores early to get ahead of the comp because we know how tight it is. And it seemed like Chris was able to get away from the comp pretty early um with this Tom Green move and some of the other stuff he did. So do you think there is still space in the game to pay up for you know, someone like, let's say, a brayshore or a dawson who could potentially get off to a flyer or if you were playing today, do you still think you'd be trying to hunt as much value as you can? Yeah, it's it's a good question. And one year of that early buy around is so hard to put a ah decision on. it I remember I left the early buy arounds playing supercoach in the same manner, which is that the advantage of going value means less rookies on the field and typically
00:15:05
Speaker
There's always some good rookies and you want rookies in your team. They're the ones who typically outperform their price the most, which is the name of the game to generate as much cash as you can and to outperform their price at point, which means you're going to score more points. And rookies, when they're priced at 30, if they go at 65, it's very, it's much easier for that to happen than someone priced at 70 to go at 105. Mind you, like a Tristan Sherry was the highest cash generator last year, plus the the second highest score. So it shows you,
00:15:34
Speaker
that those mid prices can generate as much cash and can score well. What helped me in those days and what helped coaches last year who went for value is that the top scorers ended up being those value players. So I think 2017, when I went in there cheap as well, it might've been the year when, todd it was the year when Tom Mitchell first moved to Hawks and had his big one 20 years. So although I didn't pay for anyone over price, over a hundred, I still got that big captain score each week.
00:16:03
Speaker
year after I think it was a Brody Grundy who was cheap and broke out for his 120 odds. So he was my captain option. Those last year went for value like a Shezel, a Cherry, a Whitfield all proved to be great captain options. So you weren't being hurt on the other end by missing out on these captain scores because the captain scores are so important.
00:16:23
Speaker
um to go this year, like I think I so heard Tommy say that he, his average captain score was something like 128 or something. I think he was saying to you, whereas back when we were playing, him I was happy to get a 104, 105, because he only had one real look at it on the Thursday night game. So when you say, would I go in there again, just with the value, I'd still want to make sure I've got someone i'm confident enough to have a captain score in, which would mean that maybe I would be paying up for an Andy Braeshaw.
00:16:52
Speaker
I could have as a captain, a Tristan Sherry, I'm sure will speak more class specific in a bit. In terms of the best 18 and how that impacts it, um because that is the idea is that you can take a rookie off the field and replace them with the mid price and hope that that's how you're going to get and differentiate that way. And I found in my super coach that I was being left behind because I wasn't getting these poor rookie scores, but it didn't matter because the The best 18 meant that you weren't counting those even those mid prices at times. But it was funny or interesting listening to both Chris and Tom, and they both went pretty mid price heavy. And their justification was that if the mid price had failed, then it wouldn't count with best 18 anyway. So it's kind of the same argument to saying, well, you might as well have the rookies because they're not going to count. Their view was you might as well get the mid price because if they fail, they're not in your best 18 anyway. If they do well, then it's a competition winning pick in your head of the curve. so
00:17:49
Speaker
I think I certainly still would go the value. um Each year is different, obviously, especially with the rookies. And we also say we're no draft expert, but it sounds like these rookies this year are good scorers. So you feel as if you want to have those players on the ground, as mentioned before, they're the ones who generate the cash and outperform their price at point the most, which typically gives you the highest score.
00:18:14
Speaker
Do you feel that there's going to be much difference this year um with the early buy rounds finishing after round four, whereas last year we had, I think it was round one was fine, but then it was round two, round three as our best 18. Then you had gather round, then you had round five, round six. So the buys were but more spread out last year compared to this year being more condensed. Do you think coaches might catch themselves out a little bit if they if they do go too rookie heavy and then all of a sudden from round five onwards they're having to field back to normal best 22? Yeah I think so um and maybe we'll get too worried about this round zero but like I think the community as a whole naturally played it well last year and this time last year we all put the line in there saying you don't want anyone playing in round zero well would you if you're going to have
00:19:06
Speaker
them not playing in one of the first five weeks, you might as well have someone who's of equal upside, equal price at point, equal points potential, who's not going to miss.
Fantasy Strategies and Player Performance Insights
00:19:16
Speaker
But then as soon as round zero rolled around, we saw as a free cash generation cheat code. And I think that might again be a reason why teams were so um completed so much earlier than and before. i Ever normally I like to complete my team.
00:19:30
Speaker
and the back end of the buyers whereas it felt like teams were sideways trading premiums at the early buy rounds and even at the mid-season buy rounds and still had a of clearly complete team. So certainly those early buy rounds if someone is a mid-price or a rookie and they outperform their price and that's just ah a free hit what's going to be very interesting and again I think we'll speak about some player specifics in a bit but if It plays like a Will Day who's got obviously obvious upside. If he goes out and scores a 75, what are you going to do there? If Kitty Coleman comes and scores a 65, what are you going to do there? that You almost want them to score that level and and force the coach to make the decision. It's interesting that Max Gorn obviously underperformed in opening round. And Chris, who is the the recent champion, like okay he reacted to that. And rightly or wrongly, it meant that he jumped off
00:20:26
Speaker
top scorer for the first 16 weeks of the season and still managed to win because by getting Grunty, that money then saved him to go out elsewhere. So, yeah, it's interesting this round zero business. I think I'd still try to keep it as straight as possible. I did that with my Super Coach team and it wasn't as good as the prior years.
00:20:48
Speaker
All right, so let's let's deep dive into Chris a little bit. Being one of your in-laws, clearly you would have been speaking to him a lot last year and and following what he was doing. So what were some of your learnings from how he sort of set his team up and was able to to trade his way to the top? he was He was up there pretty early on, much earlier than we traditionally were when we were um fighting for it. So what what can we learn from him?
00:21:11
Speaker
Yeah, he's he's ah he's been always had a good knack for it. and it's it's funny crazy oby like it's He's my brother-in-law, my sister's husband, and I feel sorry for him twice. One, because when he first won it, everyone thought, oh, it must have been Selby doing his team, which if anyone listens to him on the podcast or reads what he does or looks at his results over the last four years, would know that he's certainly he's and He's a guru, not to mention there's no way I would have started, pretty much Tom Green in my starting squad. There's no way I would have overreacted and traded out max score and after his round zero score, there's no way I would have had Zorka win at round three or four or whenever he got him in. So um he had that and then all like our friends and family, because they know me who's won two cars, they they think it must be quite easy. So no one's giving him the due accolades
00:22:05
Speaker
that it deserves. like it's ah like yeah I keep saying that if you could speak to anyone else, one of these beasts, we're just crying out for a hat, a top 1,000 finished let alone the cards. In terms of learning from him, he's always been a reactive coach and I think it's because, and I don't know if it's a coincidence, there were two poms at the top two and two guys who didn't know what foot he was seven years ago, but they're happy to jump on players or off players, um, without the reputation in mind. So even like a kind of border records, it was was probably obvious that, um, getting rid of him after round one, but it was that really wet game, wasn't it? I think. And he scored the 30 odd, but before then, I think he scored 70 or 80 in the round zero. Um, hard talked him up to be the,
00:22:57
Speaker
Be the jade and short, like I'm not sure if I would have jumped off him straight away. I would have done more of the rookie fix up. So um probably being less stubborn and and just seeing what's in front of you and making the call straight away in terms of what Chris did. What I learned from the way he played, I got a lot more involved or engaged with it in the back half of the year what i wrote when he was right up there in the pointy end.
00:23:24
Speaker
And that's when I learned about all this looping and like obviously I've been aware of it with Supercoach, which has been a a rolling lockout game for for years. And JD, who's done the crossover from Supercoach to fancy, I know he's big he's big on his looping and to a point where we both started Tristan Cherry two years ago now, which looks a masterstroke that year when he did his ankle around one first quarter against West Coast.
00:23:53
Speaker
And he started Cherry with an emergency on him at R3, even though he was his R2, just in case something like that happened, like you just sort of being on top of all those little things. So um learning through Chris with that and with Chris, you almost need a second eye over, ah okay, this is the start of the weekend.
00:24:15
Speaker
who's goingnna Who plays first? Who's going to be a D7? If this player does well, can you then move into the midfield and have a second look at your midfield group? It doesn't always work out. I think in round 22, Chris took a peatling F7 to that game against Dockers where he scored a 32, and he had Jai Simpkin up his sleeve in case he didn't score well, but then he realised that Cooper Simpson, who was his switch between forward and mid, played Dockers who played GWS and he couldn't get Simpkin forward. so So he had Simpkin stuck on the bench for his 85 that week and that always felt like we at that time that that's brought back the old memories of the 2018 heart sink moment. But um that whole getting that extra premium, I remember my whole view of the extra 23rd premium used to be it's a hard enough game to
00:25:11
Speaker
work out which players to field, which VC line to get, who to put your VC on. You've got enough decisions to make each week as it is, let alone if you've got 23 premiums and then the premium comes out and scores a 90, do you decide, well, do you then venture a Jack Sinclair defence just in case he doesn't then you always seem to get burnt the other way so I was always against that 23rd premium but looking at it now the way Chris played it might have helped the fact that it was such a weak f6 position last year and he was able to have two three bites the chariot that and then also
00:25:47
Speaker
and that back end when players were getting tagged like a Nick Dacos, Zach Merritt, he was able to have two looks at those tag targets, but the comfort knowing that you get two looks at these players was something which I never had, obviously, at our fixed lockout era, and ah I'd certainly take that away both with my super coach.
2025 Fantasy Season Plans and Strategies
00:26:09
Speaker
and I encourage what I'll be talking with the guy this year and the in season to how to set up your best, your team best to to make the most of the yeah the schedule and um to limit the downside risk of bad scores and potentially get two bites the cherry for the good scores.
00:26:28
Speaker
Yeah, it'll be very interesting to see whether or not that strategy holds up this year. Like clearly it's a it was a very good strategy, but I can't remember a year where we got so many of the the top guys at such value prices to begin with. You already rattled them off the top, but she's all Whitfield gone. ah Chris and Tom both got Zorko Flanders very early.
00:26:50
Speaker
they were They were just able to build an ah an awesome amount of cash because they got so many quality players under priced and every year is different. So it'll be interesting to see whether or not the cash holds up this year and we can we can find all that value. But yeah, it's something that I'd never even really considered. I know I think Minimunk was a pretty early adopter of it back in 2023 trying to get that 23rd premium and that at the time it was a a little bit of it a different concept. yeah It's always been something in Supercoach, right? Trying to get that 23rd premium to be able to um loop when you you're out of trade. So you need to be able to swing some people on and off. But AFL fantasy, we always thought we were just trying to get your 22 on field as as strong as possible. But the 23rd, 24th premiums opened up a whole new way to play the game, which is which is really good to see.
00:27:39
Speaker
you know You make a good point, the the cash gen, you're looking back at it, it was a gift, but then you maybe look at this year and you look at that forward line and you're probably going to start with five of the top six forwards or at a very cheap price. So potentially we might have that influx of cash again. We've got the round zero, so you've got to jump on the right rookies or mid prices to get that early double cash gen. And then there's we've got one extra trade and tip normal, I believe, because there's an extra mid-season buyer, which means there's five mid-season buyers. There's an extra week of trades to again, to try to unlock that extra bit of cash or whatever it needs to be to unlock that 23rd premium. But yeah, even little things like there's a Thursday night fixture and he had an extra premium. So I think it was Adelaide versus
00:28:30
Speaker
Essendon and you just, yeah there's nothing hurting you putting Zach Merritt on the bench with an emergency on him, unless I've seen it shoot people to the foot and they forget to put the emergency on and they get stuck there with with a donor. But just in the off chance, he does do a Tom Green ankle and um subs off on seven and you know that 99% of the top 1000 are gonna cop that seven and you can then plug on a dry Simcon from your four line or whatever it is to get that little boost. So it requires a lot more commitment and being switched on all the time, which as I said, I don't think I could have done back then. And certainly now with two kids, I couldn't do now. um But it's always where you need to always get yourself an assistant coach for someone else to look over your team and and help with your few things to to get that done.
00:29:17
Speaker
All right, so let's ah let's jump into 2025 now. So no doubt you would have been doing your your research with the guide and potentially you might have been having a little bit of a play around with your Super Coach team. But how are you seeing sort of setting up for 2025 sort of structure wise and how do you think we should go about building our starting squads?
00:29:37
Speaker
Yeah, obviously it's still very early. This is first week or second week of Jan and at DSA we looked at this this time last year and Alex Sexton would have been in the season guide as ranked 720th of the 740 players then he ended up shooting right up there and being good picks a lot obviously can change from now but as I said I've just got up Warnie's most popular picks and just looking at particularly the forward line. I think that there's the four which pick themselves being a McCray, Phillipo, Smith and Caleb Daniel based on what we know and what we hope and just looking at ah those big breakouts over the years. A lot of them come from that extra opportunity from changing clubs and most of those tick those boxes. The question will be what happens with that F1, whether a coach pays up for
00:30:35
Speaker
a potential F1, whether that be a Dylan Moore, the Horned Francis, a Isaac Rankin, a Liam Baker even, or they go the extra rookie on the ah bench, or there's a few little sort of discounted, or sorry, inflated rookies who are sitting there, whether it's a ah um Dan Curtin and ah Erasmus,
00:31:04
Speaker
um There's a few options in there. It just depends on how much cash you'll have left after you do the rest of your team. So I think all teams' forward lines are going to be very similar. But what I'm getting the feel of and the consensus is that the midfield, yes, there's ah the similar names being thrown out there, but with the cash which people are saving in the forward line and then with a few of these discounted midfielders, like a Clayton Oliver, who everyone's jumping on, I feel like everyone's
00:31:34
Speaker
M1 and M2 are going to be pretty different, which I think again is great for the game. Mentioned last year, the most popular midfielder was Bontempeli for those who paid up. And then those who didn't pay up, the midfields were all pretty similar anyway, whereas now it's almost at a point where it's back to the old school where you've got to take a punt on which which one of these midfielders you think might return to those 110 ways. so um As mentioned before, I'd like to have a captain option, so I'd be okay paying up for someone priced above 100 around that M1 position. ah Those rookies are very good in the midfield, but then, as you know, I love my discounted premium, so you always like to have one extra rookie on the midfield than I normally do. I think I might try to squeeze in, or might would have wanted to squeeze in one of these extra discounted
00:32:29
Speaker
premiums, which we can speak about. None of them have all come with risks. I think last year those players were speaking about as those discounted premiums, and Ollie Wines and Matt Crouch, a Kyle Eamon, a Nick Martin, like some of them end up being the knockout picks, but some of them didn't. And I think that's going to be the same again this year, despite the fact that I think this year the names are better names rather than talking about your cheap halfback flankers.
00:32:58
Speaker
with a role change. We're talking about some gun midfielders who are coming off one or two very interrupted injury seasons. And then the back line, and this is where the the early buy arounds throw a bit of a curveball that those, the obvious or the ones which are attractive, discounted defenders, obviously you all fall on that same buy. So it's it's all good and well us.
00:33:21
Speaker
putting in a team how you think it would look, but I think they're round one, or round zero score, sorry, they're going to dictate that. And I didn't mind the way old harm you said the other day that he likes building his squad without those players and then lets their round zero team score force his hand rather than going the other way.
00:33:40
Speaker
Yes. And i I want to try and get you pick your brains here because I was having a bit of an argument, not an argument, but a chat in one of my group chats the other day regarding the rock. So I think depending on how coaches decide to go in the rock line this year is going to determine how much money they have to to spend up elsewhere. So you you famously put out the stat that but no winner has ever started anyone above 115.
00:34:04
Speaker
Um, so you've got the coaches that want to go set and forget this year when they traditionally been against it, but they believe that a Tristan Cherry and a Royal Marshall are going to be you know so far ahead of the the rest of the rucks that they're happy to to lock that in. If you were playing, you set and forget something you'd consider or not even set forget, but starting one of those two rucks, whether it be a Marshall at 117 or a Cherry at 115.
00:34:28
Speaker
Yeah, just quickly on that. So that was 2017. What I didn't in 2018, I didn't then I haven't since but 2018 obviously come the draw with with James and he started Tom Mitchell price the 129. So it shows you certainly can start with those players priced above that. And
00:34:47
Speaker
set and forget used to be a thing I used to like like you where there was a big gap in the top tier rucks from the top tier to the next tier and if you didn't start with the top tier ones they were very hard to get to and if something went haywire you'd have to do a full restructure of your team and hope everything else goes well with your starting squad to be able to make up that ground. But we have seen in those recent years that the discounted ruck has proved to be a correct player ever since the Riley O'Brien year, I think that was 2019. Since then, I think there was a Sam Jacobs year and that didn't work out. There's been a few Braden Proust years and that was kind of who knows what would happen there. But I think the the set and forget hasn't proven to be the the winning strategy
00:35:35
Speaker
for a few years now. um But we also haven't had rucks at the price tag they're coming in at this year. um
00:35:47
Speaker
What would I do with my rucks this year? I love a Tristan Cherry. i I liked him two years ago when I was big on starting with him and started with him in Super Coach. I was big on him last year.
00:36:00
Speaker
um he just, he's a, he's a beast that bloke. And even from watching him playing Ford line when Goldie was the main rocker, he was playing VFL. He just had that knack about him. And I know a lot of people talking about the tackle numbers he got, and that's got to regress, but you just watch the way he plays. and That's in his nature. And you just got to look at the top tacklers over the last, but Matt Rao, I think he was first last year and first year before. Roy Bottom was third last year and fifth year before. it Tacklers, it you kind of have it or you don't. So I don't see that regressing a huge amount. um So I would be very inclined if I had the funds to to pay up for a cherry.
00:36:45
Speaker
Marshall, and I think you were the one to say it, and I don't know if there's a good thing that we all start getting this group think, but I do agree with a lot of what you say say, but Marshall probably for the last four years has been the number one fantasy player of the game. And each week you go in there a little bit nervous. Is he going to be rested this week? Is he looking sore? Is he going to play forward? Is he going to be subbed off? ah So he's the one of the two I'd be less inclined to pay up for um interesting to hear Tommy Hales say that he was going to go the full set and forget, and the fact he was at that pointy end out there, so he would have watched those both players play a lot more than I did last year. So I'd certainly respect what he says, but I think I'd be looking for the discounted one. um And there's what there's three logical options. If you want to go discounted, the TDK, the Darcy, and the Flynn, if you want to go right down that way.
00:37:42
Speaker
um Darcy obviously has photos circulated today where he's looking very skinny, which as a Docker fan makes you happy. But they still have Luke Jackson there and your top, your top scorers don't get 65, 70% CBAs. And with his injury history, like, can you not see Dockers, if they're winning or losing, them subbing him off at three quarter time and just letting Jackson rock? I don't know. That would also be a nervous and Again, that's why we go set and forget to you don't have these nerves. ah TDK has less of that stress. um And then there's a Flynn, but we all remember Flynn's big scores for GWAS, but then what did that do with Prusa? He was doing the big scores. All I know is that Flynn played a few waffle games, he got smashed in the
Mid-Priced Players and Team Selection Strategies
00:38:30
Speaker
in the ruck. so um
00:38:32
Speaker
Yeah, that's a watch, but it's easy to say it's a watch because if you're trying to scratch um structure your squad in January, and it's it's hard to know whether you get a parking extra 500K in that department, then leave you short elsewhere. But at this stage, I think I would pay out for one of them.
00:38:49
Speaker
Yeah, Marshall, he's so interesting, right? And this is the one year where you shouldn't have any worries to to pay up if you're going to do it now that Campbell's gone. um There's talk of them. I'm not sure if they have, but there's talk of them having an SSP signing a mature age ruck, whether that's happened yet or not. I'm not too sure. Yeah, 26 year old big bodied ruck. So yeah, whether that's, they needed someone, as you said, they needed someone as a backup in case he goes down. Now they haven't got Old Tom Campbell, or is it the fact that they know that he can do the bashing and crashing, and we're at Rowan Marshall, like he's an absolute gun. Like even when he goes forward, he used to he used to average 100 as a forward anyway, so like he's he's still gonna score fine, but does that split become a bit less? Yeah, not sure. And in terms of the two, like I like having the one for the captain option, I know with rolling lockout, it's good to have two cracks in the cherry, so maybe you would, but if I was playing in 2017 or 2018, I certainly wouldn't do the two, because ah
00:39:49
Speaker
I think it'd be a waste paying over 110 price tag if you're not going to put the cap on them each week. Yep. Yep. That's fair. All right. Midfield underpriced premiums, well, they used to be your specialty. Let's let's go there a little bit. So I suppose you've got some of the the top end guys that that could present a little bit of value on what they've done before. So you are a Freo man. What do you see with an Andy Brayshaw? Do you think he has the Well, he's got the tools to go back to 110, but do you think with the emergence of Sorong, Hayden Young and and that midfield, do you think Frio play a little bit more of a a less selfish brand to sort of push up towards finals or do you think he's got it? I think the emergence of Sorong and Young only help him.
00:40:34
Speaker
Obviously, he got tagged a bit back in the day. um Now he can just run free. So I still think that even if, yes, Sarong improves and Young improves, which you expect Young to at least do, and they get a bit more running elsewhere in the midfield, whether it's at Rasmus or Nathan O'Driscoll or whoever it is, providing more than what Fife provided last year. I still think that um just the way he plays again, Andy Breschau, like he He loves getting out there, getting the cheap touch. He loves jumping in and laying the tackle. So I do think he's got the capability to bounce back. But it's funny, like I put my projections in and I do my projections based on player by player and look at what I think their best case and then the lower case and um likelihood of each of those and spits out a number, which then I'll work out if they're
00:41:28
Speaker
underpriced, overpriced, fairly priced or whatever it is. I know that the really good analysts in basketball, they do it more on a team level and they work out exactly what minutes per game each player is going to play, the points, the assists, the rebounds for each team and then work out which if you're going to take four assists off one player, you give it to the other player and a bit like what you talk about the market share, whereas if you looked at buyer projections,
00:41:55
Speaker
but There's a lot of players I've got going above they did that they did last year, which is probably a bad thing. But on the flip side, you you need these players to outperform to do well in this game. So I'd like to go in there with an eye of, okay, well, if things go right, this this could be a really good pick. Let's do it. And if they don't, and I've heard you say this too as well, as long as their price is a good price, they're not going to burn you. And in this day and age of these extra trades, you can jump off them if if they're not going to be that knockout pick like an Ollie Wines last year, jump across to and Matt Crouch and it's not going to cost you like a Tommy Howells did. Is there anyone else around that sort of Andy Brayshore price stats or around that 104 mark that you're that you think can can be the number one player in the comp and presents value or do you think everyone's sort of fairly priced at the moment? It's hard and I'll probably need to look more about the the way the game's being played and the trend of the scorers, but I do find it very odd that
00:42:55
Speaker
One player scored 110 being a trawl, whereas the way we were built and grew up, they were your big scorers, those midfielders, they scored the 110s. But you look at it and with the guy to look at all the breakdown and what happened game by game. and Yes, you can go there with an optimistic eye, but a lot of them, they had excuses why they were a little bit down. so um There's a few I reckon can get back up there to the 110 mark, which I think would be good. Again, good for the comp if there are a few to to go that level. Obviously the higher price you start at, the less you have to outperform your price. If you can get someone price at 104, 105, they could do 109, 110, and that's that's a good pick. it's And that's then the trade off. If you're going to go someone price around this 70 mark and they only do 85, then that's not a good pick because you're going to have to turn them around again and and waste the trade there.
00:43:52
Speaker
So there's a few players that are priced a little bit lower, so around that sort of 100 to, well, 95 to 100 mark. So you've got your Connor Rosie, Tim Taranto, Tom Green, Petrarcos a little bit lower, Darcy Parrish. Are these the kind of areas that you like to shop in, hoping that these players you might get, you know, from the lower 90s, you might get 10 to 15 and from your 100 mark, you might get 5 to 10?
00:44:16
Speaker
Yeah, historically, yes, this was definitely my shooting zone of the high 90s, sub hundreds. to hope that they can boost up to be a top eight mid rather than getting those price in the 70s who might push themselves up to the 95s and you still have to deal with them and whether that's changed as we mentioned with these extra trades we have for mid season buyers with the extra cash gen we're getting with the opening round double boost um with the more savvy community and looking into it more and getting more knockout picks that
00:44:51
Speaker
you can afford to get those players who aren't going to close score close to the top of their line, but do it enough to generate you a bit of cash to then move on. um But yeah, normally 95 to 100 is my sweet spot, but that's, we're not normally dealt with like a Clayton Oliver price where he's priced, um whether it's a Will Dave, if you like him, obviously he's got the round zeros that's going to dictate the scoring on a lot of him, but yeah, those players you list, I like ah like them.
00:45:21
Speaker
I think out of all of them, I'm a Connor Rosie man. um I think he's a very good player and he had clear excuses last year from what he got subbed off with that hamstring soreness and then went the next week and was subbed off again when he actually did the strain. Then he came back, did an ankle against North Melbourne, sat forward, missed the next week. So there's three clear injured games in there. And then the last round of the year,
00:45:51
Speaker
We're watching it closely. Chris and I, we went to the game, Dockers versus Port and Chris knitted. Bray short outscored Rosie and Rosie just spent his whole time on the bench sort of rubbing his back. So he had something going on that final game of the year as well. So um obviously it doesn't mean that he's going to be healthy for the 23 weeks this this year, but I can certainly see him going back up even with, I know you've mentioned the market share and if we expect the Hornet to improve and butters to score like he does. But Zaveras loves saying it in particular hardball gets that whose port's fourth best player and it used to be Dan Houston and now he's gone. Who is their fourth best player? So yes, they're going to need a higher market share if they're all going to score one 10. But I think they're clearly the best three players in that team. I think they're all going to score pretty well.
00:46:43
Speaker
I know you were you were pretty big on this bloke back when he was at Freeo. It's been a while he's been injured, but does an Adam Cera interest you at all? um um You're probably looking at him a little bit in Supercoach as well. He's always had some pretty good Supercoach numbers. What are you thinking with Cera? Yeah, I've been roaming him a lot of times and this, the way I'm doing my guide and the way the good old bunksters put it for me, I can read all my comments from last six years and some look good. It's like, oh yeah, I'm spot on on this bloke and some you're wrong. And every year I've got a little mad chance for top eight mid for Chira, that three years in a row. um Even to the point of last year after being coming in their price at 95, I thought he was a chance. And now price at 72, you'd think, why not? But I think role's a big thing for him. Where's he going to play?
00:47:34
Speaker
um hamstrings, what I think I read, he did five, I hope it's correct, so I put this in the guide, five hamstrings in the last 12 months. And you see it happen to players, whether it's a Harley Bonnell, Zaver, Ellis himself, that these soft tissues, they are very hard to to get over. Obviously we saw Zorka get over it to full effect last year, but um I've got concerns on a chair. He might be one of those ones he's so cheap that you could trade into
00:48:04
Speaker
potentially. Post is 120 score against Richmond in round one when they play. Yes, yes, yeah true. Which have been chasing the um ah cha and the tail, isn't it? that You want to get that big score early. Yeah, good point. Good point. I suppose this is the type of player that Chris or Tom would jump on, just not even caring about the injury history, just seeing it as a as a number. But yeah, he interests me, but it it doesn't come with it without its risk. I suppose you start a chair. up
00:48:35
Speaker
You wouldn't want to be starting a Darcy as well and and maybe some other players that are injury prone. So yeah you'd have to look at your team in totality. But he's someone that interests me at the start of January anyway.
00:48:46
Speaker
um What I think we'd finish on is the defensive line because the defenders are a pretty big talking point so far with a lot of the value options having that round three buy that you mentioned and a lot of the top-end guys, whether it be a shizzle, a potential roll change, Zorko being 35 and not knowing how that's going to line up, Flanders potentially moving into the midfield or forward line. there's It doesn't seem like there's a lot of value at the top. It seems like a lot of players are either fairly priced or overpriced.
00:49:14
Speaker
how we How do you think we should be looking to to set up our back lines at this point in time? Yeah, I think the community's been pretty spot on with their assessment of it. And as I said, whether their Now I've understanding of trying to hunt value in every line regardless, or we've just been dealt this year where you could make it cade like the top midfielders of Treloar, and I doubt anyone's going to pay up for a Treloar. The top defenders, ah whether it's a Zorko and a Whitfield, it's hard to see them backing it up, plus they've got the early round.
Conclusion and Resources
00:49:47
Speaker
So whether we're just forced to hunt for that value. She's always the obvious one who people are expecting to regress.
00:49:56
Speaker
even though we're thinking Dacos is going to gain himself an extra eight points this week this year. like He is Dacos 2.0. He's a gun. I don't hate him. Obviously, it's very expensive based on what he did when he got five games of 120 to start the year as a half back and he's not going to play that this year. so I think I'd structure up like the Most people are talking where you'd find one of those players who you think might be able to push the top six. But if they don't, it's not the end of the world knowing that the top six are going to come back. So whether that is a Jayden Short and Liam Duggan.
00:50:35
Speaker
Play around that sort of area then there's the obvious discounted ones whether it's a key Colvin and a Callum Mills, but obviously they played the opening round and if they both go 85 plus and Play on a decent roll and I think everyone's gonna be on again as I said, I wouldn't mind it happening But if if they go 50 and 60 respectively then how you're gonna play it again I'm gonna wait to after they're by and if that's the case then who you're gonna fill in these positions because There's a few cheap ones um Cheap ones there like there always is, but there this is the position I never really like trusting those cheap rookies, particularly more than two on the field. So, yeah, um I'm not too sure to answer your question, but I think the read is correct that those the top end guys are expensive. Out of all of them, I think Sinclair is the consistent one when he plays. Well, we've seen the trend over this over the years that halfback flankers are scoring more than inside mids. He's playing more and more halfback flank.
00:51:35
Speaker
and he had excuses last year with that and calf meagre where he missed this back in the pre-season and round one took a while to warm up finish strong so he's another who is probably the one who you think would at least hold his price while you see how the dust settles.
00:51:52
Speaker
Yep. Yep. That's fair enough, mate. So thanks for thanks for your time tonight and jumping on. I really appreciate it. Can you just let all our listeners know um where they can find you on your socials and and where they can find all of your Magic Sport products and the the guide?
00:52:07
Speaker
Yep, so at Mirrors Magic on Twitter, you'll find me. And as mentioned, I mumbled my way through it earlier. But this slider survivor comp, I'd love you to all jump on and and register. I think there'll be a ah lot of fun. And the the way it is built is that it's best ball formation. So once you do the draft, which is the best part of the fancy um year anyway, the draft day, your team will take care of itself. You'll be given the optimal lineup each week.
00:52:35
Speaker
So it will take no time once post the draft and you'll be in there to win a prize. We need to hit a certain number of players like Regis for us to be able to execute the comp. So you encourage everyone. You can jump on, slide a dot team, Regis for survivor. And then once you're there, you'll be able to play around with the other tools. There is the mock drafts. Check out the league functionality if you want to post your league on R.
00:52:58
Speaker
Platform or if you're going to host it elsewhere. That's all good. We've got some plenty of tools there to help you with that as well. So you slide it up team there and then as mentioned the bolted team picker.
00:53:10
Speaker
where you can check out some price projections based on your own estimates to help you build your starting squad. The way I like to say it is imagine if it was this time last year and you were tossing up between a team with Bontum Pelly in there as captain and a rookie like Riley Sanders, or you went the two mid prices in a Matt Crouch and a Riley Bonner, you'd obviously lose points on your captain, but you can put in your price projection,
00:53:35
Speaker
score projections for all of those four players in the two different teams and it will spit out which team is going to make you the most points and then generate the most cash, which could help be the difference between hunting that top 100 finish. So check that out, picker.bolter dot.team, and then yeah stay tuned for how bolter is going to look season long in 2025.
00:54:00
Speaker
Beautiful. We were talking pre-pod. You're planning on starting your Morera's Magic podcast sometime soon, and do you have a rough time of when your guide's going to be around this year? Yes. So the guide normally launches early Feb, first week of Feb-ish.
00:54:16
Speaker
behind you a bit behind the airport. I'm just looking now 193 complete profiles, 492 to go. So um we'll hope we get that early fair, but we'll start our regular podcasts from later this week. So I hope you'll record tomorrow. So that will kick off. We'd normally do three or four um before the guides out. And they're just on Spotify under Maru's magic podcast. And then if enjoy what we do and and want to know more and stay along for the ride, then jump on the season guide where I think normally we do about 10 to 12 podcasts before round one, um
00:54:55
Speaker
pre-regis or registrations for the guides out at Murarismagic.com.au, but information overload, I'm sorry, but I appreciate you have the chat, Hovesy. And again, like what you do, so keep it up, you guys, you, Holmesy, and Hammy, and old Louie, and whoever else you can rattle up to get the panel this year.
00:55:17
Speaker
Nah, awesome mate. Thanks. Thanks for jumping on again. For everyone else, make sure you're following us on X at Pod Pod AFL and I'm at Homesies Heroes. um Make sure you've subscribed on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to your content. And as always, if you could leave us a rating and review, um that would be greatly appreciated. Thanks so much for jumping on, mate. We'll be back sometime soon with another guest. But for now, farewell.